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Academic literature on the topic 'Multi-Risks'

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Published: 25 May 2024

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Journal articles on the topic "Multi-Risks"

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Andersen, Per Kragh, Steen Z. Abildstrom, and Susanne Rosthøj. "Competing risks as a multi-state model." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 11, no. 2 (April 2002): 203–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/0962280202sm281ra.

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Depietri, Yaella, Khila Dahal, and Timon McPhearson. "Multi-hazard risks in New York City." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 12 (December 21, 2018): 3363–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018.

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Abstract. Megacities are predominantly concentrated along coastlines, making them exposed to a diverse mix of natural hazards. The assessment of climatic hazard risk to cities rarely has captured the multiple interactions that occur in complex urban systems. We present an improved method for urban multi-hazard risk assessment. We then analyze the risk of New York City as a case study to apply enhanced methods for multi-hazard risk assessment given the history of exposure to multiple types of natural hazards which overlap spatially and, in some cases, temporally in this coastal megacity. Our aim is to identify hotspots of multi-hazard risk to support the prioritization of adaptation strategies that can address multiple sources of risk to urban residents. We used socioeconomic indicators to assess vulnerabilities and risks to three climate-related hazards (i.e., heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding) at high spatial resolution. The analysis incorporates local experts' opinions to identify sources of multi-hazard risk and to weight indicators used in the multi-hazard risk assessment. Results demonstrate the application of multi-hazard risk assessment to a coastal megacity and show that spatial hotspots of multi-hazard risk affect similar local residential communities along the coastlines. Analyses suggest that New York City should prioritize adaptation in coastal zones and consider possible synergies and/or trade-offs to maximize impacts of adaptation and resilience interventions in the spatially overlapping areas at risk of impacts from multiple hazards.
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Khan, Saleh, and Arvind Ashta. "Managing Multi-Faceted Risks in Microfinance Operations." Strategic Change 22, no. 1-2 (February 2013): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jsc.1918.

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Bogdanov, K. "The Escalation Risks of Multi-Domain Battles." World Economy and International Relations 67, no. 4 (2023): 29–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-4-29-39.

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The outpacing development of doctrinal concepts of warfare at the present stage becomes an additional source of instability in the strategic landscape. Combined with the restructuring of the world order and the active introduction of emerging technologies, the development of new doctrines leads to increased escalation risks, including due to the poorly understood mutual influences of the operating factors in a complex environment. The Multi-Domain Battle theory is an excellent example of this impact. The article analyzes the main provisions of this theory in terms of potentially emerging escalation risks The problem is considered in the light of recent proposals for new escalation models, including the principles of the “escalation vortex” and the “wormhole escalation”. The emerging risks of applying doctrinal principles that blur distinct thresholds in the escalation space, including the thresholds of clearly distinguishing between war and peace, are analyzed. It shows a direct link between the Multi-Domain Battle theory and the concept of “integrated deterrence”, realized in the same logic of graded escalation control. A number of new emerging nuclear risks have been demonstrated, including links to long-standing theories of limited nuclear warfare options, as well as the new concept of the 2010s, the so-called “conventional-nuclear integration”. Conclusions are drawn about the need to implement a structured sequence of practical steps aimed at limiting the escalation risks generated by this doctrinal concept. A possible connection of this sequence with the longer-term task of rebuilding and strengthening the arms control framework has been established.
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Li, Xiaopeng, and Fuqiu Li. "Reliability Assessment of Space Station Based on Multi-Layer and Multi-Type Risks." Applied Sciences 11, no. 21 (November 1, 2021): 10258. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app112110258.

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A space station is a typical phased-mission system, and assessing its reliability during its configuration is an important engineering action. Traditional methods usually require extensive data to carry out a layered reliability assessment from components to the system. These methods suffer from lack of sufficient test data, and the assessment process becomes very difficult, especially in the early stage of the configuration. This paper proposes a reliability assessment method for the space station configuration mission, using multi-layer and multi-type risks. Firstly, the risk layer and the risk type for the space station configuration are defined and identified. Then, the key configuration risks are identified comprehensively, considering their occurrence likelihood and consequence severity. High load risks are identified through risk propagation feature analysis. Finally, the configuration reliability model is built and the state probabilities are computed, based on the probabilistic risk propagation assessment (PRPA) method using the assessment probability data. Two issues are addressed in this paper: (1) how to build the configuration reliability model with three layers and four types of risks in the early stage of the configuration; (2) how to quantitatively assess the configuration mission reliability using data from the existing operational database and data describing the propagation features. The proposed method could be a useful tool for the complex aerospace system reliability assessment in the early stage.
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Renner, Rebecca. "Predicting chemical risks with multi-media fate models." Environmental Science & Technology 29, no. 12 (December 1995): 556A—559A. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00012a002.

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Vyzhitovich, Aleksandr. "Financial Management of Risks: Multi-Agency Investment Projects." Bulletin of Kemerovo State University. Series: Political, Sociological and Economic sciences 2022, no. 4 (December 8, 2022): 521–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21603/2500-3372-2022-7-4-521-528.

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Effective risk management needs new approaches to risk analysis, especially in multi-agent investment projects. The article focuses on cluster projects currently active in the Novosibirsk Region, as well as on specific financial risks that occur between interacting organizations of various ownership forms. The author studied the assessment methodology for risks that develop as a result of unreliable or incomplete information, violation of state subsidies, their repayment, etc. The analysis of Novosibirsk clusters involved the Kontur. Focus software. The proposed methods included defining key parameters of the control model, procedures for input reliability check, a diagnostic methodology for project members, and integrating the effectiveness of the cluster control system. These approaches and methods can be included in a new integrated approach to the mesolevel risk management of multi-agent cluster projects as part of state and corporate control.
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Stewart, Mark G., and John Mueller. "Terrorism Risks for Bridges in a Multi-Hazard Environment." International Journal of Protective Structures 5, no. 3 (September 2014): 275–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/2041-4196.5.3.275.

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Fu, Zhixuan, Shuangge Ma, Haiqun Lin, Chirag R. Parikh, and Bingqing Zhou. "Penalized Variable Selection for Multi-center Competing Risks Data." Statistics in Biosciences 9, no. 2 (October 31, 2016): 379–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12561-016-9181-9.

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Jones-Berry, Stephanie. "Possible multi-year pay deal has opportunities – and risks." Nursing Standard 32, no. 24 (February 7, 2018): 12–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.7748/ns.32.24.12.s10.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Multi-Risks"

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Lin, Yushun. "PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION IN COMPETING RISKS AND MULTI-STATE MODELS." UKnowledge, 2011. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/statistics_etds/1.

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The typical research of Alzheimer's disease includes a series of cognitive states. Multi-state models are often used to describe the history of disease evolvement. Competing risks models are a sub-category of multi-state models with one starting state and several absorbing states. Analyses for competing risks data in medical papers frequently assume independent risks and evaluate covariate effects on these events by modeling distinct proportional hazards regression models for each event. Jeong and Fine (2007) proposed a parametric proportional sub-distribution hazard (SH) model for cumulative incidence functions (CIF) without assumptions about the dependence among the risks. We modified their model to assure that the sum of the underlying CIFs never exceeds one, by assuming a proportional SH model for dementia only in the Nun study. To accommodate left censored data, we computed non-parametric MLE of CIF based on Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Our proposed parametric model was applied to the Nun Study to investigate the effect of genetics and education on the occurrence of dementia. After including left censored dementia subjects, the incidence rate of dementia becomes larger than that of death for age < 90, education becomes significant factor for incidence of dementia and standard errors for estimates are smaller. Multi-state Markov model is often used to analyze the evolution of cognitive states by assuming time independent transition intensities. We consider both constant and duration time dependent transition intensities in BRAiNS data, leading to a mixture of Markov and semi-Markov processes. The joint probability of observing a sequence of same state until transition in a semi-Markov process was expressed as a product of the overall transition probability and survival probability, which were simultaneously modeled. Such modeling leads to different interpretations in BRAiNS study, i.e., family history, APOE4, and sex by head injury interaction are significant factors for transition intensities in traditional Markov model. While in our semi-Markov model, these factors are significant in predicting the overall transition probabilities, but none of these factors are significant for duration time distribution.
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Lever, K. E. "Identifying and mitigating security risks in multi-level systems-of-systems environments." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 2018. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/8707/.

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In recent years, organisations, governments, and cities have taken advantage of the many benefits and automated processes Information and Communication Technology (ICT) offers, evolving their existing systems and infrastructures into highly connected and complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS). These infrastructures endeavour to increase robustness and offer some resilience against single points of failure. The Internet, Wireless Sensor Networks, the Internet of Things, critical infrastructures, the human body, etc., can all be broadly categorised as SoS, as they encompass a wide range of differing systems that collaborate to fulfil objectives that the distinct systems could not fulfil on their own. ICT constructed SoS face the same dangers, limitations, and challenges as those of traditional cyber based networks, and while monitoring the security of small networks can be difficult, the dynamic nature, size, and complexity of SoS makes securing these infrastructures more taxing. Solutions that attempt to identify risks, vulnerabilities, and model the topologies of SoS have failed to evolve at the same pace as SoS adoption. This has resulted in attacks against these infrastructures gaining prevalence, as unidentified vulnerabilities and exploits provide unguarded opportunities for attackers to exploit. In addition, the new collaborative relations introduce new cyber interdependencies, unforeseen cascading failures, and increase complexity. This thesis presents an innovative approach to identifying, mitigating risks, and securing SoS environments. Our security framework incorporates a number of novel techniques, which allows us to calculate the security level of the entire SoS infrastructure using vulnerability analysis, node property aspects, topology data, and other factors, and to improve and mitigate risks without adding additional resources into the SoS infrastructure. Other risk factors we examine include risks associated with different properties, and the likelihood of violating access control requirements. Extending the principals of the framework, we also apply the approach to multi-level SoS, in order to improve both SoS security and the overall robustness of the network. In addition, the identified risks, vulnerabilities, and interdependent links are modelled by extending network modelling and attack graph generation methods. The proposed SeCurity Risk Analysis and Mitigation Framework and principal techniques have been researched, developed, implemented, and then evaluated via numerous experiments and case studies. The subsequent results accomplished ascertain that the framework can successfully observe SoS and produce an accurate security level for the entire SoS in all instances, visualising identified vulnerabilities, interdependencies, high risk nodes, data access violations, and security grades in a series of reports and undirected graphs. The framework’s evolutionary approach to mitigating risks and the robustness function which can determine the appropriateness of the SoS, revealed promising results, with the framework and principal techniques identifying SoS topologies, and quantifying their associated security levels. Distinguishing SoS that are either optimally structured (in terms of communication security), or cannot be evolved as the applied processes would negatively impede the security and robustness of the SoS. Likewise, the framework is capable via evolvement methods of identifying SoS communication configurations that improve communication security and assure data as it traverses across an unsecure and unencrypted SoS. Reporting enhanced SoS configurations that mitigate risks in a series of undirected graphs and reports that visualise and detail the SoS topology and its vulnerabilities. These reported candidates and optimal solutions improve the security and SoS robustness, and will support the maintenance of acceptable and tolerable low centrality factors, should these recommended configurations be applied to the evaluated SoS infrastructure.
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Li, Hua S. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "A multi-attribute method for ranking the risks from multiple hazards in a small community." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43864.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, February 2008.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 95-98).
Natural hazards, human-induced accidents, and malicious acts have caused great losses and disruptions to society. After September 11, 2001, critical infrastructure protection has become a national focus in the United States and is likely to remain one for the foreseeable future. Damage to the infrastructures and assets could be mitigated through pre-disaster planning and actions. A systematic method has been developed to assess and rank the risks from these multiple hazards in a small community of 20,000 people. It is an interdisciplinary study that includes probabilistic risk assessment, decision analysis, and expert judgment. Scenarios are constructed to show how the initiating events evolve into undesirable consequences. A value tree, based on multi-attribute utility theory, is used to capture the decision maker's preferences about the impacts on the infrastructures and other assets. The risks from random failures are ranked according to their Expected Performance Index values, which is the product of frequency, probability, and consequence of a scenario. Risks from malicious acts are ranked according to their Performance Index values as the frequency of attack is not available. A deliberative process is used to capture the factors that could not be addressed in the analysis and to scrutinize the results. This method provides a framework for the development of a risk-informed decision strategy. Although this study uses the Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus as a test-bed, it is a general methodology that could be used by other similar communities and municipalities.
by Hua Li.
S.M.
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Do, Elizabeth K. "A Multi-Method Exploration of the Genetic and Environmental Risks Contributing to Tobacco Use Behaviors in Young Adulthood." VCU Scholars Compass, 2017. http://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/4877.

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Tobacco use remains the leading preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in both the United States and worldwide. Twin and family studies have demonstrated that both genetic and environmental factors are important contributors to tobacco use behaviors. Understanding how genes, the environment, and their interactions is critical to the development of public health interventions that focus on the reduction of tobacco related morbidity and mortality. However, few studies have examined the transition from adolescent to young adulthood – the time when many individuals are experimenting with and developing patterns of tobacco use. This dissertation thesis seeks to provide a comprehensive set of studies looking at risk for tobacco use behaviors and nicotine dependence using samples of young adults. The first aim is to examine the joint contributions of genetic liability and environmental contexts on tobacco use in adolescence and young adulthood using classical twin study methodologies. The second goal is to identify genetic variants and quantifying genetic risk for tobacco use in young adulthood and examining their interaction with environmental context across development. Accordingly, the thesis is divided up into the following sections: i) reviews of existing literature on genes, environment, and tobacco use; ii) twin studies of genetic and environmental influences on tobacco use behavior phenotypes; iii) prevalence, correlates, and predictors of tobacco use behaviors; iv) genetic analyses of tobacco use behaviors; v) a commentary on the emergence of alternative nicotine delivery systems and its public health impacts; and vi) plans for an internet-based educational intervention seeking to reduce tobacco use (and nicotine dependence) by providing students attending university with information on genetic and environmental risk factors for nicotine dependence.
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Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham. "JOINT MODELING OF MULTIVARIATE LONGITUDINAL DATA AND COMPETING RISKS DATA." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1354508776.

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Denat, Tom. "Creation of a Biodiversity Severity Index to evaluate the risks of accidental pollutions in the industry : a multi-criteria sorting approach." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED013/document.

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Cette thèse s'appuie sur deux axes. L'un appliqué traite de la création d'un indicateur dont le but est d'évaluer la gravité attendue des conséquences d'un scénario de pollution accidentelle. J'ai choisi d'utiliser des outils méthodologiques appartenant au domaine de l'aide multi-critères à la décision pour traiter ce premier sujet. Ce problème impliquant plusieurs disciplines scientifiques, j'ai choisi de le diviser en plusieurs sous-problèmes à travers une arborescence de critères. J'ai également impliqué plusieurs experts, notamment en toxicologie et en écologie afin de mieux prendre en compte les aspects liés à ces deux disciplines dans la création de cet indicateur.L'étude des méthodes de tri multicritère effectuée lors des recherches sur le premier axe m'a amené à en proposer une nouvelle que j'ai nommé algorithme du Dominance Based Monte Carlo (DBMC). Cet algorithme a comme particularités de n'être pas fondé sur un modèle et de fonctionner de manière stochastique. Nous avons étudié ses propriétés théoriques, en particulier nous avons démontré qu'en dépit de sa nature stochastique, le résultat de l'algorithme Dominance Based Monte Carlo converge presque sûrement. Nous avons également étudié son comportement et ses performances pratiques à travers un test nommé k-fold cross validation et les avons comparés aux performances d'autres algorithmes d'élicitation des préférences pour le tri multi-critères
This thesis is based on two main axes. The first one deals with the creation of an indicator that aims at evaluating the expected severity of the consequences of a scenario of accidental pollution. In order to create this methodology ofevaluation, I chose to use methodological tools from multi-criteria decision aiding. So as to deal with the complexity of this problem, i decided to split it into several sub-problems using a hierarchy of criteria, being mainly inspired by the "value focused thinking approach". In this work, I interacted with several experts in toxicology and in ecology in order to betterdeal with every aspect of this problem.While studying several elicitation methods for the multi-criteria sorting problem, I proposed a new one that I named Dominance Based Monte Carlo algorithm (DBMC), which brings me to the secons axis of this thesis. This elicitation algorithm has two main specificities: being model free and a stochastic functionning. In this thesis, we study its theoretical properties. In particular, we prove that despite its stochastic nature, the result of the Dominance Based Monte Carlo algorithm converges almost surely. We also study its practical performances through a test named k-fold validation and we compared these performances to those of other elicitation algorithms for the sorting problem
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Bastit, Félix. "An economic approach to multiple risks in forests." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023LORR0256.

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La forêt est une ressource majeure en Europe. Elle occupe 33% du territoire, représente 0,2% du PIB européen et 3,6 millions d’emplois. La forêt européenne est aussi la source de nombreux services écosystémiques tels que la production de bois et le stockage de carbone. Cependant, elle subit de nombreux aléas : feux, tempêtes, sécheresses, pullulations d’insectes, etc. qui menacent la provision de ces services. De plus, sous l'effet du changement climatique, la probabilité et l'intensité de ces aléas augmentent ainsi que leurs interactions. Du point de vue économique deux risques principaux découlent de l’occurrence des aléas naturels : un risque de production (de bois et de stockage de carbone) et un risque de marché.La littérature s’est concentrée sur le risque de production de bois à l’échelle de la parcelle, puisque c’est l’échelle pertinente pour la décision de gestion forestière. Ce n’est néanmoins pas la bonne échelle pour modéliser les aléas naturels de grande ampleur, ni pour modéliser des effets de changements de prix. Dans cette thèse, nous avons donc pris le parti de travailler à plusieurs échelles spatiales. Par ailleurs, les interactions potentielles entre aléas naturels sont également jusqu’à maintenant rarement considérées, alors même qu’elles pourraient mener à des phénomènes d’une ampleur inédite. Le risque de prix a aussi été beaucoup étudié dans la littérature, mais généralement indépendamment du risque de production alors même qu’il existe une forte corrélation entre les deux, comme l’ont montré les chutes de prix après les grandes tempêtes historiques. Dans cette thèse, nous tâcherons donc de prendre en compte cette corrélation.Ce travail s’articule autour de quatre parties. Tout d’abord, une revue de la littérature d’économie forestière a montré quelles étaient les limites actuelles et les pistes de recherche les plus prometteuses. La conclusion principale de ce travail est que les aléas naturels sont généralement considérés comme indépendants en économie forestière, alors que les modèles écologiques sont plus inclusifs.En réponse à cela, dans le deuxième chapitre, nous avons décidé d’abandonner le modèle classique d'économie forestière pour étudier la résilience d’un marché autarcique de bois à l’échelle régionale face à des aléas génériques d’ampleur catastrophique. Nous avons étudié les niveaux d’aléas et les temps de retour acceptables pour assurer la stabilité des équilibres de long terme du marché.Ce modèle a, dans le troisième chapitre, été appliqué plus précisément au contexte du secteur forestier français grâce à modèle récursif d’équilibre partiel (French Forest Sector Model). Un module de simulation spatialement explicite de tempêtes et de pullulation d’insec-tes y a été ajouté. Cela nous a permis d’établir des résultats sur les stratégies des différents acteurs de la filière en cas d’occurrence d’aléas naturels en interaction. Nous avons aussi étudié les politiques publiques souhaitables à mettre en œuvre en prévision des occurrences de grandes tempêtes. Puis, nous avons discuté la robustesse des politiques publiques d’atténuation du changement climatique.Dans le dernier chapitre, le coût potentiel du changement climatique basé sur la production de bois à l’échelle européenne a été estimé en incluant les quatre essences économiquement significatives en Europe. Nous avons montré que les pertes dues aux aléas naturels catastrophiques devraient significativement augmenter à cause du changement climatique mais qu’une partie serait compensée par des gains de productivité des forêts. Ces effets sont néanmoins spatialement très hétérogènes, ce qui mènera à des gagnants et à des perdants, pour qui la stratégie d’atténuation au changement climatique pourrait s’avérer d’autant plus compliquée à mettre en œuvre en cas de diminution de leur puits forestier de carbone
Forests are a major natural resource in Europe. It covers 33% of the territory, accounts for 0.2% of European GDP and provides 3.6 million jobs. European forests are also the source of numerous ecosystem services such as wood production and carbon storage. However, they are subject to numerous hazards: wildfires, windstorms, droughts, insect outbreaks, etc., which threaten the provision of these services. In addition, climate change is increasing the probability and intensity of these hazards, as well as their interactions. From an economic point of view, two main risks arise from the occurrence of natural hazards: a production risk (wood and carbon storage) and a market risk (price volatility).The literature has focused on wood production risk at stand scale, since this is the relevant scale for forest management decisions. However, this is not the right scale for modeling large-scale natural hazards, nor for modeling the effects of price changes. In this thesis, we have therefore decided to work at several different spatial scales: stand, regional, country and continent. Furthermore, potential interactions between natural hazards have rarely been considered, even though they could lead to phenomena of unprecedented magnitude. Price risk has also been studied extensively in the literature, but generally independently of production risk, even though there is a strong correlation between the two, as demonstrated by price falls after major historical storms. In this thesis, we will try to take this correlation into account.This work is divided into four parts. Firstly, a review of the forest economics literature shows the current limitations and the most promising avenues of research. The main conclusion of this work is that natural hazards are generally considered independent in forest economics, whereas ecological models are more inclusive.In response to this, in the second chapter we decided to abandon the classical forest economics model to study the resilience of a self-sufficient regional timber market to generic hazards of catastrophic magnitude. We have studied the levels of hazards and acceptable return times to ensure the stability of long-term market equilibrium.In the third chapter, we applied this model more precisely to the French forestry sector, using a recursive partial equilibrium model (French Forest Sector Model). A spatially explicit simulation module for windstorms and insect outbreaks was developed. This enabled us to establish results on the strategies of the various economic actors in the sector in the event of the occurrence of interacting natural hazards. We also studied the desirable public policies to be implemented in anticipation of the occurrence of major storms. We then discussed the robustness of public policies to mitigate climate change, such as intended nationally determined contributions from the Paris Agreement, facing natural disturbances.In the final chapter, the potential cost of climate change based on wood production at European level was estimated, including the four economically significant tree species in Europe. We have shown that losses due to catastrophic natural hazards are likely to increase significantly as a result of climate change, but that some of these losses will be offset by gains in forest productivity. These effects are, however, spatially very heterogeneous, leading to winners and losers, for whom climate change mitigation strategies could prove all the more complicated to implement in the event of a reduction in their forest carbon sink
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Marcondes, Andreza Benatti. "Um estudo de caso sobre os resultados da implantação da manufatura enxuta e impactos nos metodos de analise de investimentos." [s.n.], 2003. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/264508.

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Orientador: Paulo Correa Lima
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica
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Resumo: As mudanças nos padrões de competitividade da indústria brasileira influenciaram os procedimentos na avaliação de investimentos em capital fixo das empresas. Neste sentido, a decisão de investir em determinado projeto não é baseada somente na relação entre uma taxa interna de retomo e uma taxa mínima de atratividade, mas deve-se levar em consideração fatores como tempo de resposta ao cliente, qualidade e custo. Para alcançar estes requisitos, a empresa deve reconfigurar seu processo de negócios e uma das áreas mais afetadas é o chão-de-fábrica. A abordagem da Toyota Motor Corporation para projeto de sistemas de manufatura, conhecida como manufatura enxuta, mostrou ser capaz de garantir resultados superiores. Os modelos de análise de investimento atuais, criados para atender a produção em massa, falham em apontar os resultados gerados pela produção enxuta. Este trabalho pretende entender o impacto financeiro de se converter uma fábrica do sistema de produção em massa para o sistema enxuto. Um caso de estudo de uma montadora que se tornou referência nas práticas enxutas é utilizado para verificar se ocorreram transformações na metodologia utilizada pela empresa
Abstract: The changes in the competitiveness standards in the Brazilian industry had influenced on the investment evaluation procedure of fixed capital in corporations. In this way, the decision to invest in a project must not be only based on a relation between the internal rate of return and attractiveness rate. It is necessary to consider factors as response time to customers orders, quality and cost. In order to achieve those requirements most companies need to reconfigure their business process and one of the most affected areas in the shop floor. Toyota Motor Corporation' s approach to manufacturing system design, a1so known as lean manufacturing, has been showing superior performance. The current investment ana1ysis models, created to support mass production, :fail in recognize the effectiveness of lean manufacturing. This work aims at understanding financial impact of restructuring a plant from mass to lean production. A case study of an automotive assembly company who become a benchmark on lean practices is used to check of investments methodologies had been reviewed to support manufacturing transformation
Mestrado
Materiais e Processos de Fabricação
Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica
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AQUINO, Joás Tomaz de. "Proposta de avaliação de riscos financeiros em projetos inovadores: um estudo multicaso de empresas de tecnologia da informação do Porto Digital em Pernambuco." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/18615.

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Um dos primeiros passos para o sucesso dos projetos é a correta identificação e classificação dos fatores de risco que possuem impacto financeiro substancial. Pois, nesta fase ainda é possível a criação de modelos de gerenciamento de risco mais adaptativos e a criação de estratégias para a mitigação das perdas financeiras subjacentes. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é propor uma metodologia de avaliação dos riscos financeiros presentes em projetos inovadores realizados por empresas desenvolvedoras de software do Porto Digital. Este local foi escolhido por possuir empresas em essência mais inovadoras por florescerem em ambientes repletos de atividades de P&D e fazerem uso de tecnologias da informação para criação de novos produtos e processos. Buscando a criação de um diagnóstico quantitativo integrado dos sete fatores de risco identificados na literatura (relacionados ao planejamento, ações externas, capital financeiro, requisitos técnicos, mão de obra, execução, suporte e cronograma), foi utilizada uma metodologia com as seguintes etapas: (1) utilização do método Non-Traditional Capital Investment Criteria (NCIC) para identificação dos fatores de riscos críticos nos projetos com base na perda financeira proporcionada; (2) classificação dos riscos com base em matrizes de riscos; e (3) a realização da simulação do valor presente líquido agregado do projeto, finalizando com a análise pós-simulação. A metodologia mostrou-se adequada para a análise de projetos inovadores estudados por permitir a quantificação do impacto dos riscos, apoiando a tomada de decisão no planejamento de resposta aos mesmos. Apesar de cada projeto possuir natureza inovativa diferente, no geral foi identificado que o fator de risco relacionado às questões financeiras esteve presente em todos os projetos, ora em primeiro ora em segundo plano. Outro elemento pertinente verificado foi aquele relacionado ao planejamento e estimação dos benefícios que podem ser gerados pelo projeto, revelando a importância do processo de planejamento da inovação. Isto é, no momento de seleção de ideias e na verificação da viabilidade inicial do projeto, sobretudo, naqueles com maior grau de inovação. Enquanto o atendimento ao cronograma teve maior impacto no projeto de inovação incremental, riscos associados às questões técnicas não se mostraram expressivas nos projetos. Sob o ponto de vista do controle gerencial exercido foram identificados gaps demonstrando que se faz necessário repensar sobre como os projetos são conduzidos sob o ponto de vista de gestão e estabelecer novas estratégias de mitigação ou prevenção. Foi identificado também que os projetos A2 e A3 eram viáveis quando analisados apenas sob a ótica tradicional do seu VPL, mas quando são inseridos os fatores de risco relacionados ao planejamento, financeiro e cronograma, os projetos deixaram de ser viáveis, já que os seu valores presente líquidos agregados mostraram-se negativos. Isso revela a pertinência e a sensibilidade da análise multicritério na análise de investimentos complexos como aqueles estudados.
One of the first steps of project’s success is the correct identification and classification of risk factors with substantial financial impact. Since at this stage still allowed the creation of more adaptive risks management models and the creation of strategies to mitigate underlying financial losses. Therefore, the aim of this study is to create an evaluation of financial risks present proposal on innovative projects performed by software development companies at Porto Digital. This place of study was chosen because includes the most innovative companies in essence, by flourish in environments filled with research and development activities and make use of information technology on the process of creation of new products and processes. Searching for the creation of a quantitative diagnosis that integrates the seven risk factors identified on literature was used a methodology that follows this three steps: (1) using the NonTraditional Capital Investment Criteria method (NCIC) to identify critical risk factors on projects based on financial loss provided; (2) risks classification based on risk matrixes; and (3) the present liquid value simulation aggregated to the project, ending with the post-simulation analysis. The methodology proved itself adequate to innovative projects analysis by allowing to quantify the risks impacts on them, supporting the decision making process on planning the response to it. Although each project possess a different innovative nature, in general, it was identified that the risk factor related to financial issues was present in all of the projects, both on first or second plan. Another relevant element verified was the one related to planning and the estimation of benefits that can be generated by the project, revealing the importance of the innovative planning process. That is, the moment of the ideas selection and initial viability verification, especially on a higher degree of innovation projects. While the compliance schedule has higher impact on incremental innovative projects. Risks associated with the technical issues were not effective. From the point of view of management control, were identified gaps demonstrating that it is necessary rethink about the conduction of projects from the management angle and establish new strategies for mitigation or prevention. It has also been identified that projects A2 and A3 was viable only when analyzed under the traditional optical of theirs NPV, however when the risk factors are inserted, related to planning, financial and schedule, the projects are no longer viable with the aggregated NPV to become negative. This shows the relevance and sensitivity of the multi-criteria analysis on complexes investments analysis as studied here.
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Linus, Drevell, Liderfelt Henrik, and Welin-Berger Adam. "You miss 100% of the opportunities you do not exploit : A comparative study on how multi-national B2B’s manage risks and exploit opportunities in Ghana and Nigeria." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för marknadsföring (MF), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-85979.

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The past decade's globalisation has become an increasingly important topic in international business. Firms, therefore, search for business opportunities in new markets, where the aim is to increase revenue. However, many of the world’s developed economies are becoming more saturated, which leads to firms looking for opportunities in emerging countries. Recent studies and statistics indicate that the West-African region is developing thus leading to increased buying power and population growth. The purpose of this thesis is to research how firms can exploit opportunities which derive from the development in the West-African market, and sub-sequentially how the risks are managed. This study is conducted with a qualitative research method with an abductive approach based on eight MNC’s with experience from Ghana and Nigeria. Due to the lack of previous research on especially how firms exploit opportunities, it was key for the authors to go back and forth between empirical findings and the literature review to achieve a holistic view of the topic and find gaps in the existing literature. The authors further have created a conceptual framework based on previous literature which provided themes combined with the operationalisation to answer the research questions. The analysis discusses the existing literature combined with the empirical findings and the authors’ thoughts in the context of West-Africa. Lastly, a concluding chapter with results, theoretical- and practical implications, limitations, societal contribution and suggestion for further research is presented. The result of the thesis has provided further knowledge of how firms exploit opportunities and manage risks as well as how important the network is for firms entering West-Africa. The most significant finding shows that a firm needs to access the correct network upon entering Ghana and Nigeria in order to exploit any opportunity. The authors suggest that managers need to access the correct network via an agent providing them with local specific knowledge to overcome a lack of knowledge and initial risks. Further building upon the initial agents’ network will enable them to explore further opportunities within the West-African region.
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Books on the topic "Multi-Risks"

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Amaratunga, Dilanthi, Richard Haigh, and Nuwan Dias, eds. Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1.

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Group, Christchurch Engineering Lifelines, and University of Canterbury. Centre for Advanced Engineering., eds. Risks & realities: A multi-disciplinary approach to the vulnerability of lifelines to natural hazards : report. Christchurch, N.Z: Centre for Advanced Engineering, University of Canterbury, 1997.

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Amaratunga, Dilanthi, Richard Haigh, and Nuwan Dias. Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks. Springer International Publishing AG, 2022.

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Amaratunga, Dilanthi, Richard Haigh, and Nuwan Dias. Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks. Springer International Publishing AG, 2021.

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Haider, Alexander, Stefan Mittnik, and Willi Semmler. Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model. International Monetary Fund, 2019.

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Cortes, Fabio, and Luca Sanfilippo. Do Multi-Sector Bond Funds Pose Risks to Emerging Markets? International Monetary Fund, 2020.

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Cortes, Fabio, and Luca Sanfilippo. Do Multi-Sector Bond Funds Pose Risks to Emerging Markets? International Monetary Fund, 2020.

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Haider, Alexander, Stefan Mittnik, and Willi Semmler. Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model. International Monetary Fund, 2019.

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Cortes, Fabio, and Luca Sanfilippo. Do Multi-Sector Bond Funds Pose Risks to Emerging Markets? International Monetary Fund, 2020.

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Haider, Alexander, Stefan Mittnik, and Willi Semmler. Climate Disaster Risks âe Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model. International Monetary Fund, 2019.

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Book chapters on the topic "Multi-Risks"

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Cox, Louis Anthony. "Multiattribute, Multi-Person, and Multi-Period Risks." In Risk Analysis Foundations, Models, and Methods, 393–439. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-0847-2_7.

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Linkov, I., J. Steevens, M. Chappell, T. Tervonen, J. R. Figueira, and M. Merad. "Classifying Nanomaterial Risks Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis." In Nanomaterials: Risks and Benefits, 179–91. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9491-0_13.

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Basnayake, B. M. R. L., D. Achini M. De Silva, S. K. Gunatiliake, R. H. N. Rajapaksha M. Sandamith, and I. Wickramarathna. "Co-Management Initiatives in Bush Fire Management—A Case of Belihuloya Mountain Range, Sri Lanka." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 443–55. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_30.

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Tillekaratne, H. I., D. R. I. B. Werellagama, and Raj Prasanna. "Command and Control Mechanism for Effective Disaster Incident Response Operations in Sri Lanka." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 615–31. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_42.

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Fernando, Malith, Malinda Millangoda, and Sarath Premalal. "Analyze and Comparison of the Atmospheric Instability Using K-Index, Lifted Index Total Totals Index Convective Availability Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in Development of Thunderstorms in Sri Lanka During Second Inter-Monsoon." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 603–14. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_41.

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de Silva, Asitha, Richard Haigh, and Dilanthi Amaratunga. "A Systematic Literature Review of Community-Based Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 303–20. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_20.

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Gihan Chaminda, Udalamaththa Gamage, and Janaki Warushahennadi. "Management of the Dead in Disasters: Knowledge, Attitudes and Self-Reported Practices Among a Group of Army Soldiers in Galle District, Sri Lanka." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 811–18. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_52.

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Liyanaarachchige, Chathura, Sunil Jayaweera, Asanka Nanayakkara, Santh Wijerathna, and Mevan Jayawardana. "Drowning Prevention and Water Safety Sri Lanka: Challenges and Recommendations." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 457–64. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_31.

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De Silva, D. Achini M., K. B. S. S. J. Ekanayaka, R. H. N. Rajapaksha, and R. S. K. Dharmarathne. "Local Responsiveness to Changes in Climate: A Case of Underutilized Marine and Aquatic Resources." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 185–96. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_11.

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Fernando, Nishara, and Malith De Silva. "The Discourse of Municipal Solid Waste Management in Sri Lanka." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 263–75. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_17.

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Conference papers on the topic "Multi-Risks"

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Balakrishnan, Vimala, and Elham Majd. "Managing communication risks in a multi-agent environment." In 2016 Sixth International Conference on Innovative Computing Technology (INTECH). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/intech.2016.7845018.

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Yargic, Alper, and Alper Bilge. "Privacy Risks for Multi-Criteria Collaborative Filtering Systems." In 2017 26th International Conference on Computer Communication and Networks (ICCCN). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icccn.2017.8038509.

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Lahafi, Fikri, Rahman Ambo Masse, Syahriyah Semaun, Mr Wahidin, and Rusdaya Basri. "Risks of Multi-Contract in Sharia Financial Institutions, Indonesia." In 2018 3rd International Conference on Education, Sports, Arts and Management Engineering (ICESAME 2018). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/amca-18.2018.71.

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Trusov, Roman, Alexey Natekin, Pavel Kalaidin, Sergey Ovcharenko, Alois Knoll, and Aida Fazylova. "Multi-representation approach to text regression of financial risks." In 2015 Artificial Intelligence and Natural Language and Information Extraction, Social Media and Web Search FRUCT Conference (AINL-ISMW FRUCT). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ainl-ismw-fruct.2015.7382979.

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Barry, Philip, and Steven Doskey. "Identifying Hidden Risks in Multi-Stakeholder, Dynamic System Development Environments." In 2019 IEEE International Systems Conference (SysCon). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/syscon.2019.8836935.

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Wang, Yu, and Shun Fu. "A General Cognition to the Multi-characters of Software Risks." In 2011 International Conference on Computational and Information Sciences (ICCIS). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iccis.2011.33.

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Kamamura, Shohei, Daisaku Shimazaki, Yoshihiko Uematsu, Kouichi Genda, and Koji Sasayama. "Multi-staged network restoration from massive failures considering transition risks." In ICC 2014 - 2014 IEEE International Conference on Communications. IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icc.2014.6883502.

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Bogdanović, Dejan, Ivan Jovanović, and Anđelka Stojanović. "Multi-criteria analysis of risks and phases in mining project." In Proceedings of the 5th IPMA SENET Project Management Conference (SENET 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/senet-19.2019.30.

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Yu, Xianzhe, Peiyi Han, Chuanyi Liu, Shaoming Duan, Hezhong Pan, and Xiayu Xiang. "FIGAT: Accurately Predict Individual Crime Risks with Multi-information Fusion." In 2021 IEEE Sixth International Conference on Data Science in Cyberspace (DSC). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/dsc53577.2021.00041.

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Bosnic, Ivana, Federico Ciccozzit, Igor Cavrak, Raffaela Mirandola, and Marin Orlic. "Multi-dimensional assessment of risks in a distributed software development course." In 2013 3rd International Workshop on Collaborative Teaching of Globally Distributed Software Development (CTGDSD). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ctgdsd.2013.6635238.

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Reports on the topic "Multi-Risks"

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Dobson, Nicole Anne, Calvin Daniel Seamons, and Zachary Alexander Morrell. Injecting Systematic Faults to Evaluate Risks of a Multi-Cluster Slurm Database. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1463571.

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Durkalec, J., P. Gasser, and O. Shykov. 5th Annual LLNL Deterrence Workshop -- Multi-Domain Strategic Competition: Rewards and Risks. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), January 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1635783.

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Petchel, Shauna. The Organizational Risks of Multi-Sector Health Partnerships: A Case Study of Oregon's Accountable Health Communities. Portland State University Library, May 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.15760/etd.7325.

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O'Connor, Jack, Caitlyn Eberle, Davide Cotti, Michael Hagenlocher, Jonathan Hassel, Sally Janzen, Liliana Narvaez, et al. Interconnected Disaster Risks. United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), September 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.53324/nyhz4182.

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We live in an interconnected world, where disaster risks are increasing every day. In 2020/2021 alone, the world witnessed a number of record-breaking disasters that showed us clearer than ever before how interconnected we are, for better or worse. These disasters are symbols of underlying global issues that we must identify and address in order to better manage risk. This report analyses 10 disastrous events that occurred in 2020/2021 and explains that these events are interconnected with each other, with other larger, underlying societal processes, and with our behaviors and actions. We show that disasters in the past year were connected directly, such as in the case of the Arctic heatwave and the Texas cold wave, or indirectly, such as the COVID-19 pandemic’s influence on other disasters through impacts on economies and health systems. Co-occurring disasters, such as when Cyclone Amphan struck during the COVID-19 pandemic, drastically escalate levels of loss and damage, and risk management must adapt to account for such multi-hazard events. Case studies were also interconnected by shared root causes, the most common of which were human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and insufficient disaster risk management. However, other prominent root causes included global demand pressures, lack of national/international cooperation, prioritising individual profit and undervaluing environmental costs in decision-making. This report argues that since the risks associated with these disastrous events are interconnected in their root causes, influences, and impacts, thinking in fragmented, isolated and insular ways is no longer tenable. Instead, we must find integrated solutions that can tackle multiple root causes and emerging risks while enhancing our capacities to prepare and respond to future disasters.
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Lager, Frida, and Magnus Benzie. New risk horizons: Sweden’s exposure to climate risk via international trade. Stockholm Environment Institute, September 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.51414/sei2022.033.

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This study focuses on Sweden and its place in the global trade system. The objective was to develop innovative multi-method approaches to identify and assess transboundary climate risks facing Sweden via its international trade links.
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Budzich, Jeffrey. PR-685-184506-R01 Development of Risk Assessment Procedures and Tools. Chantilly, Virginia: Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), April 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0011668.

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Evaluating risks for hydrotechnical threats at pipeline waterway crossings is important to maintaining pipeline integrity. Establishing standards and best practices for evaluating the risks associated with scour, bank erosion, and channel avulsion is essential to developing a consistent process that can be applied across a network of pipeline crossings and provide data to make decisions about prioritizing mitigation and monitoring. A multi-step process including inventory, screening, desktop analysis, and site visit can be applied to compile regional and local data from existing sources as well as site-specific information that informs risk assessment and identification of mitigation measures and monitoring approach.
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Budzich, Jeffrey. PR-685-184506-R09 Improve Upon Existing Tools to Estimate Hydrotechnical Concerns. Chantilly, Virginia: Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), January 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0012249.

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Evaluating risks for hydrotechnical threats at pipeline waterway crossings is important to maintaining pipeline integrity. Establishing standards and best practices for evaluating the risks associated with scour, bank erosion, and channel avulsion is essential to developing a consistent process that can be applied across a network of pipeline crossings and provide data to make decisions about prioritizing mitigation and monitoring. A specific detailed multi-step process with support from improved evaluation tools, including a pilot platform, that incorporates inventory, screening, desktop analysis, and site inspections can be applied to compile regional and local data from existing sources as well as site-specific information that informs risk assessment and identification of appropriate monitoring approaches and mitigation measures
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McFee, Erin. Research Brief: Environmental Peacebuilding with Formerly Armed Actors. Trust After Betrayal, February 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.59498/21970.

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Environmental Peacebuilding (EPB) is an approach seeking to leverage shared environmental challenges in conflict zones to foster cooperation, trust, and sustainable peace. This Research Brief highlights the potential role of formerly armed actors (FAAs) as key stakeholders in this process, positing that, under specific conditions, they can be leaders in restorative actions for enduring conflict transformation and security building. It also addresses crucial concerns in implementing EPB like the depoliticisation of its processes, displacement of populations, the deligimisation of the state and the reproduction of existing power imbalances. Moreover, it delves into the risks that involving FAAs in this delicate process yields, and proposes ways to incorporate them as equal actors in a democratised multi-level and multistakeholder EPB.
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Unal, Beyza, Julia Cournoyer, Calum Inverarity, and Yasmin Afina. Uncertainty and complexity in nuclear decision-making. Royal Institute of International Affairs, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55317/9781784135157.

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Complex systems modelling is already implemented in critical policy areas such as climate change and health. It could also play an important role in the nuclear weapons sphere – by opening alternative pathways that may help mitigate risks of confrontation and escalation – but such modelling has yet to be fully embraced by policymakers in this community. By applying a complexity lens, policy- and decision-makers at all stages along the nuclear chain of command might better understand how their actions could have significant consequences for international security and peace. Nuclear decision-making is shaped by, and interacts with, the ever-changing international security environment and nuclear weapons policy. Tackling problems in the nuclear weapons policy field requires the implementation of ‘system of systems’ design principles, mathematical modelling approaches and multidisciplinary analysis. This research paper presents nuclear weapons decision-making as a complex endeavour, with individual decisions being influenced by multiple factors such as reasoning, intuition (gut feeling), biases and system-level noise. At a time of crisis, these factors may combine to cause risks of escalation. The authors draw on past examples of near nuclear use to examine decision-making in the nuclear context as a ‘wicked problem’, with multi-layered, interacting and constantly fluctuating elements.
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Rohan, Hana. Information Preparedness and Community Engagement for El Niño in the Eastern and Southern Africa Region. Institute of Development Studies, November 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/sshap.2023.026.

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El Niño can be viewed as a multi-hazard event, and considerations for information needs cut across different populations and risks, including direct weather-related hazards, reduced agricultural production, greater food insecurity and malnutrition, increased transmission of infectious diseases and effects on health care access. Long- and short-term hazard warning communications may need to contain different calls to action, and there are likely to be different levels of urgency to those calls. This key considerations brief describes the implications of El Niño in the East and Southern Africa Region (ESAR) for Risk Communication and Community Engagement (RCCE) initiatives, based on previous comparable weather events. Lessons learnt are predominantly taken from the literature on communicating forecast and weather information, but have implications for multi-hazard RCCE response. Some lessons learnt are also taken from beyond East and Southern Africa, but considered within the anticipated El Niño effects in ESAR specifically. The first section of the brief is on information needs, the second section is on ensuring and building trust in information, and the final section is on communications and community engagement strategies. The brief was commissioned by the Collective Service as a resource for organisations working on RCCE related to El Niño in ESAR.
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