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Journal articles on the topic 'Multi-Model ensembles'
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1
Solazzo, E., A. Riccio, I. Kioutsioukis, and S. Galmarini. "Pauci ex tanto numero: reduce redundancy in multi-model ensembles." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 16 (August 22, 2013): 8315–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8315-2013.
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Abstract. We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date, no attempts in this direction have been documented within the air quality (AQ) community despite the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared, dependant biases among models do not cancel out but will instead determine a biased ensemble. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated), we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores; that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.
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Kioutsioukis, I., and S. Galmarini. "<i>De praeceptis ferendis</i>: good practice in multi-model ensembles." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14, no. 21 (November 11, 2014): 11791–815. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11791-2014.
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Abstract. Ensembles of air quality models have been formally and empirically shown to outperform single models in many cases. Evidence suggests that ensemble error is reduced when the members form a diverse and accurate ensemble. Diversity and accuracy are hence two factors that should be taken care of while designing ensembles in order for them to provide better predictions. Theoretical aspects like the bias–variance–covariance decomposition and the accuracy–diversity decomposition are linked together and support the importance of creating ensemble that incorporates both these elements. Hence, the common practice of unconditional averaging of models without prior manipulation limits the advantages of ensemble averaging. We demonstrate the importance of ensemble accuracy and diversity through an inter-comparison of ensemble products for which a sound mathematical framework exists, and provide specific recommendations for model selection and weighting for multi-model ensembles. The sophisticated ensemble averaging techniques, following proper training, were shown to have higher skill across all distribution bins compared to solely ensemble averaging forecasts.
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Beusch, Lea, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne. "Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land." Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 1 (February 17, 2020): 139–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020.
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Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable tools to study the climate system's response to specific greenhouse gas emission pathways. Large single-model initial-condition and multi-model ensembles are used to investigate the range of possible responses and serve as input to climate impact and integrated assessment models. Thereby, climate signal uncertainty is propagated along the uncertainty chain and its effect on interactions between humans and the Earth system can be quantified. However, generating both single-model initial-condition and multi-model ensembles is computationally expensive. In this study, we assess the feasibility of geographically explicit climate model emulation, i.e., of statistically producing large ensembles of land temperature field time series that closely resemble ESM runs at a negligible computational cost. For this purpose, we develop a modular emulation framework which consists of (i) a global mean temperature module, (ii) a local temperature response module, and (iii) a local residual temperature variability module. Based on this framework, MESMER, a Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output, is built. We first show that to successfully mimic single-model initial-condition ensembles of yearly temperature from 1870 to 2100 on grid-point to regional scales with MESMER, it is sufficient to train on a single ESM run, but separate emulators need to be calibrated for individual ESMs given fundamental inter-model differences. We then emulate 40 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to create a “superensemble”, i.e., a large ensemble which closely resembles a multi-model initial-condition ensemble. The thereby emerging ESM-specific emulator parameters provide essential insights on inter-model differences across a broad range of scales and characterize core properties of each ESM. Our results highlight that, for temperature at the spatiotemporal scales considered here, it is likely more advantageous to invest computational resources into generating multi-model ensembles rather than large single-model initial-condition ensembles. Such multi-model ensembles can be extended to superensembles with emulators like the one presented here.
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Kioutsioukis, I., and S. Galmarini. "<i>De praeceptis ferendis</i>: good practice in multi-model ensembles." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 14, no. 11 (June 17, 2014): 15803–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-15803-2014.
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Abstract. Ensembles of air quality models have been formally and empirically shown to outperform single models in many cases. Evidence suggests that ensemble error is reduced when the members form a diverse and accurate ensemble. Diversity and accuracy are hence two factors that should be taken care of while designing ensembles in order for them to provide better predictions. There exists a trade-off between diversity and accuracy for which one cannot be gained without expenses of the other. Theoretical aspects like the bias-variance-covariance decomposition and the accuracy-diversity decomposition are linked together and support the importance of creating ensemble that incorporates both the elements. Hence, the common practice of unconditional averaging of models without prior manipulation limits the advantages of ensemble averaging. We demonstrate the importance of ensemble accuracy and diversity through an inter-comparison of ensemble products for which a sound mathematical framework exists, and provide specific recommendations for model selection and weighting for multi model ensembles. To this end we have devised statistical tools that can be used for diagnostic evaluation of ensemble modelling products, complementing existing operational methods.
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Figueiredo, Rui, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, and Heidi Kreibich. "Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 5 (May 3, 2018): 1297–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018.
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Abstract. Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
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Shen, Zhiqiang, Zhankui He, and Xiangyang Xue. "MEAL: Multi-Model Ensemble via Adversarial Learning." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 33 (July 17, 2019): 4886–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v33i01.33014886.
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Often the best performing deep neural models are ensembles of multiple base-level networks. Unfortunately, the space required to store these many networks, and the time required to execute them at test-time, prohibits their use in applications where test sets are large (e.g., ImageNet). In this paper, we present a method for compressing large, complex trained ensembles into a single network, where knowledge from a variety of trained deep neural networks (DNNs) is distilled and transferred to a single DNN. In order to distill diverse knowledge from different trained (teacher) models, we propose to use adversarial-based learning strategy where we define a block-wise training loss to guide and optimize the predefined student network to recover the knowledge in teacher models, and to promote the discriminator network to distinguish teacher vs. student features simultaneously. The proposed ensemble method (MEAL) of transferring distilled knowledge with adversarial learning exhibits three important advantages: (1) the student network that learns the distilled knowledge with discriminators is optimized better than the original model; (2) fast inference is realized by a single forward pass, while the performance is even better than traditional ensembles from multi-original models; (3) the student network can learn the distilled knowledge from a teacher model that has arbitrary structures. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10/100, SVHN and ImageNet datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our MEAL method. On ImageNet, our ResNet-50 based MEAL achieves top-1/5 21.79%/5.99% val error, which outperforms the original model by 2.06%/1.14%.
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Lee, Kang, Joo, Kim, Kim, and Lee. "Hydrological Modeling Approach Using Radar-Rainfall Ensemble and Multi-Runoff-Model Blending Technique." Water 11, no. 4 (April 23, 2019): 850. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11040850.
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The purpose of this study is to reduce the uncertainty in the generation of rainfall data and runoff simulations. We propose a blending technique using a rainfall ensemble and runoff simulation. To create rainfall ensembles, the probabilistic perturbation method was added to the deterministic raw radar rainfall data. Then, we used three rainfall-runoff models that use rainfall ensembles as input data to perform a runoff analysis: The tank model, storage function model, and streamflow synthesis and reservoir regulation model. The generated rainfall ensembles have increased uncertainty when the radar is underestimated, due to rainfall intensity and topographical effects. To confirm the uncertainty, 100 ensembles were created. The mean error between radar rainfall and ground rainfall was approximately 1.808–3.354 dBR. We derived a runoff hydrograph with greatly reduced uncertainty by applying the blending technique to the runoff simulation results and found that uncertainty is improved by more than 10%. The applicability of the method was confirmed by solving the problem of uncertainty in the use of rainfall radar data and runoff models.
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Abdillah, Abid Famasya, Cornelius Bagus Purnama Putra, Apriantoni Apriantoni, Safitri Juanita, and Diana Purwitasari. "Ensemble-based Methods for Multi-label Classification on Biomedical Question-Answer Data." Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence 8, no. 1 (April 26, 2022): 42–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jisebi.8.1.42-50.
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Background: Question-answer (QA) is a popular method to seek health-related information and biomedical data. Such questions can refer to more than one medical entity (multi-label) so determining the correct tags is not easy. The question classification (QC) mechanism in a QA system can narrow down the answers we are seeking. Objective: This study develops a multi-label classification using the heterogeneous ensembles method to improve accuracy in biomedical data with long text dimensions. Methods: We used the ensemble method with heterogeneous deep learning and machine learning for multi-label extended text classification. There are 15 various single models consisting of three deep learning (CNN, LSTM, and BERT) and four machine learning algorithms (SVM, kNN, Decision Tree, and Naïve Bayes) with various text representations (TF-IDF, Word2Vec, and FastText). We used the bagging approach with a hard voting mechanism for the decision-making. Results: The result shows that deep learning is more powerful than machine learning as a single multi-label biomedical data classification method. Moreover, we found that top-three was the best number of base learners by combining the ensembles method. Heterogeneous-based ensembles with three learners resulted in an F1-score of 82.3%, which is better than the best single model by CNN with an F1-score of 80%. Conclusion: A multi-label classification of biomedical QA using ensemble models is better than single models. The result shows that heterogeneous ensembles are more potent than homogeneous ensembles on biomedical QA data with long text dimensions. Keywords: Biomedical Question Classification, Ensemble Method, Heterogeneous Ensembles, Multi-Label Classification, Question Answering
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Merrifield, Anna Louise, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti. "An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles." Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 3 (September 16, 2020): 807–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020.
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Abstract. Multi-model ensembles can be used to estimate uncertainty in projections of regional climate, but this uncertainty often depends on the constituents of the ensemble. The dependence of uncertainty on ensemble composition is clear when single-model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are included within a multi-model ensemble. SMILEs allow for the quantification of internal variability, a non-negligible component of uncertainty on regional scales, but may also serve to inappropriately narrow uncertainty by giving a single model many additional votes. In advance of the mixed multi-model, the SMILE Coupled Model Intercomparison version 6 (CMIP6) ensemble, we investigate weighting approaches to incorporate 50 members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2-LE), 50 members of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2-LE), and 100 members of the MPI Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) into an 88-member Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. The weights assigned are based on ability to reproduce observed climate (performance) and scaled by a measure of redundancy (dependence). Surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) predictors are used to determine the weights, and relationships between present and future predictor behavior are discussed. The estimated residual thermodynamic trend is proposed as an alternative predictor to replace 50-year regional SAT trends, which are more susceptible to internal variability. Uncertainty in estimates of northern European winter and Mediterranean summer end-of-century warming is assessed in a CMIP5 and a combined SMILE–CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Five different weighting strategies to account for the mix of initial condition (IC) ensemble members and individually represented models within the multi-model ensemble are considered. Allowing all multi-model ensemble members to receive either equal weight or solely a performance weight (based on the root mean square error (RMSE) between members and observations over nine predictors) is shown to lead to uncertainty estimates that are dominated by the presence of SMILEs. A more suitable approach includes a dependence assumption, scaling either by 1∕N, the number of constituents representing a “model”, or by the same RMSE distance metric used to define model performance. SMILE contributions to the weighted ensemble are smallest (<10 %) when a model is defined as an IC ensemble and increase slightly (<20 %) when the definition of a model expands to include members from the same institution and/or development stream. SMILE contributions increase further when dependence is defined by RMSE (over nine predictors) amongst members because RMSEs between SMILE members can be as large as RMSEs between SMILE members and other models. We find that an alternative RMSE distance metric, derived from global SAT and hemispheric SLP climatology, is able to better identify IC members in general and SMILE members in particular as members of the same model. Further, more subtle dependencies associated with resolution differences and component similarities are also identified by the global predictor set.
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Wilkins, Andrew, Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, Nicholas A. Gasperoni, and Yongming Wang. "Multi-Scale Object-Based Probabilistic Forecast Evaluation of WRF-Based CAM Ensemble Configurations." Atmosphere 12, no. 12 (December 6, 2021): 1630. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121630.
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Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles contain a distinctive ability to predict convective initiation location, mode, and morphology. Previous studies on CAM ensemble verification have primarily used neighborhood-based methods. A recently introduced object-based probabilistic (OBPROB) framework provides an alternative and novel framework in which to re-evaluate aspects of optimal CAM ensemble design with an emphasis on ensemble storm mode and morphology prediction. Herein, we adopt and extend the OBPROB method in conjunction with a traditional neighborhood-based method to evaluate forecasts of four differently configured 10-member CAM ensembles. The configurations include two single-model/single-physics, a single-model/multi-physics, and a multi-model/multi-physics configuration. Both OBPROB and neighborhood frameworks show that ensembles with more diverse member-to-member designs improve probabilistic forecasts over single-model/single-physics designs through greater sampling of different aspects of forecast uncertainties. Individual case studies are evaluated to reveal the distinct forecast features responsible for the systematic results identified from the different frameworks. Neighborhood verification, even at high reflectivity thresholds, is primarily impacted by mesoscale locations of convective and stratiform precipitation across scales. In contrast, the OBPROB verification explicitly focuses on convective precipitation only and is sensitive to the morphology of similarly located storms.
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Wagena, Moges B., Gopal Bhatt, Elyce Buell, Andrew R. Sommerlot, Daniel R. Fuka, and Zachary M. Easton. "Quantifying model uncertainty using Bayesian multi-model ensembles." Environmental Modelling & Software 117 (July 2019): 89–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.013.
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Stumpf, Michael P. H. "Multi-model and network inference based on ensemble estimates: avoiding the madness of crowds." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 17, no. 171 (October 2020): 20200419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0419.
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Recent progress in theoretical systems biology, applied mathematics and computational statistics allows us to compare the performance of different candidate models at describing a particular biological system quantitatively. Model selection has been applied with great success to problems where a small number—typically less than 10—of models are compared, but recent studies have started to consider thousands and even millions of candidate models. Often, however, we are left with sets of models that are compatible with the data, and then we can use ensembles of models to make predictions. These ensembles can have very desirable characteristics, but as I show here are not guaranteed to improve on individual estimators or predictors. I will show in the cases of model selection and network inference when we can trust ensembles, and when we should be cautious. The analyses suggest that the careful construction of an ensemble—choosing good predictors—is of paramount importance, more than had perhaps been realized before: merely adding different methods does not suffice. The success of ensemble network inference methods is also shown to rest on their ability to suppress false-positive results. A Jupyter notebook which allows carrying out an assessment of ensemble estimators is provided.
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Shamraj Ashutosh Pawar, Priyanka. "Evaluating Soybean Yield Using Multi - Model Ensembles in Osmanabad District (Kharif - 2023)." International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) 13, no. 4 (April 5, 2024): 248–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.21275/sr24329123723.
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Ji, Luying, Qixiang Luo, Yan Ji, and Xiefei Zhi. "Probabilistic Forecasting of the 500 hPa Geopotential Height over the Northern Hemisphere Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts." Atmosphere 12, no. 2 (February 15, 2021): 253. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020253.
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Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) were used to improve the prediction skill of the 500 hPa geopotential height field over the northern hemisphere with lead times of 1–7 days based on ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and UK Met Office (UKMO) ensemble prediction systems. The performance of BMA and EMOS were compared with each other and with the raw ensembles and climatological forecasts from the perspective of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting. The results show that the deterministic forecasts of the 500 hPa geopotential height distribution obtained from BMA and EMOS are more similar to the observed distribution than the raw ensembles, especially for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high. BMA and EMOS provide a better calibrated and sharper probability density function than the raw ensembles. They are also superior to the raw ensembles and climatological forecasts according to the Brier score and the Brier skill score. Comparisons between BMA and EMOS show that EMOS performs slightly better for lead times of 1–4 days, whereas BMA performs better for longer lead times. In general, BMA and EMOS both improve the prediction skill of the 500 hPa geopotential height field.
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Tebaldi, Claudia, and Reto Knutti. "The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, no. 1857 (June 14, 2007): 2053–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2076.
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Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This paper outlines the motivation for using multi-model ensembles, reviews the methodologies published so far and compares their results for regional temperature projections. The challenges in interpreting multi-model results, caused by the lack of verification of climate projections, the problem of model dependence, bias and tuning as well as the difficulty in making sense of an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, are discussed in detail.
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Abramowitz, Gab, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt. "ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing." Earth System Dynamics 10, no. 1 (February 13, 2019): 91–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019.
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Abstract. The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.
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Galmarini, Stefano, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, et al. "Two-scale multi-model ensemble: is a hybrid ensemble of opportunity telling us more?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18, no. 12 (June 21, 2018): 8727–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018.
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Abstract. In this study we introduce a hybrid ensemble consisting of air quality models operating at both the global and regional scale. The work is motivated by the fact that these different types of models treat specific portions of the atmospheric spectrum with different levels of detail, and it is hypothesized that their combination can generate an ensemble that performs better than mono-scale ensembles. A detailed analysis of the hybrid ensemble is carried out in the attempt to investigate this hypothesis and determine the real benefit it produces compared to ensembles constructed from only global-scale or only regional-scale models. The study utilizes 13 regional and 7 global models participating in the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants phase 2 (HTAP2)–Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 3 (AQMEII3) activity and focuses on surface ozone concentrations over Europe for the year 2010. Observations from 405 monitoring rural stations are used for the evaluation of the ensemble performance. The analysis first compares the modelled and measured power spectra of all models and then assesses the properties of the mono-scale ensembles, particularly their level of redundancy, in order to inform the process of constructing the hybrid ensemble. This study has been conducted in the attempt to identify that the improvements obtained by the hybrid ensemble relative to the mono-scale ensembles can be attributed to its hybrid nature. The improvements are visible in a slight increase of the diversity (4 % for the hourly time series, 10 % for the daily maximum time series) and a smaller improvement of the accuracy compared to diversity. Root mean square error (RMSE) improved by 13–16 % compared to G and by 2–3 % compared to R. Probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm rate (FAR) show a remarkable improvement, with a steep increase in the largest POD values and smallest values of FAR across the concentration ranges. The results show that the optimal set is constructed from an equal number of global and regional models at only 15 % of the stations. This implies that for the majority of the cases the regional-scale set of models governs the ensemble. However given the high degree of redundancy that characterizes the regional-scale models, no further improvement could be expected in the ensemble performance by adding yet more regional models to it. Therefore the improvement obtained with the hybrid set can confidently be attributed to the different nature of the global models. The study strongly reaffirms the importance of an in-depth inspection of any ensemble of opportunity in order to extract the maximum amount of information and to have full control over the data used in the construction of the ensemble.
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Solazzo, E., A. Riccio, I. Kioutsioukis, and S. Galmarini. "<i>Pauci ex tanto numero</i>: reducing redundancy in multi-model ensembles." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 13, no. 2 (February 21, 2013): 4989–5038. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-4989-2013.
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Abstract. We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date no attempts in this direction are documented within the air quality (AQ) community, although the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared biases among models will determine a biased ensemble, making therefore essential the errors of the ensemble members to be independent so that bias can cancel out. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated) we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores, that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.
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Miao, Chiyuan, Qingyun Duan, Qiaohong Sun, and Jianduo Li. "Evaluation and application of Bayesian multi-model estimation in temperature simulations." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 37, no. 6 (August 5, 2013): 727–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133313494961.
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Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models to simulate the current and future climate change has flourished as a research topic during recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of multi-model ensembles in simulating global land temperature from 1960 to 1999, using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and Taylor diagrams. The future trends of temperature for different scales and emission scenarios are projected based on the posterior model probabilities estimated by Bayesian methods. The results show that ensemble prediction can improve the accuracy of simulations of the spatiotemporal distribution of global temperature. The performance of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) at simulating the annual temperature dynamic is significantly better than single climate models and their simple model averaging (SMA). However, BMA simulation can demonstrate the temperature trend on the decadal scale, but its annual assessment of accuracy is relatively weak. The ensemble prediction presents dissimilarly accurate descriptions in different regions, and the best performance appears in Australia. The results also indicate that future temperatures in northern Asia rise with the greatest speed in some scenarios, and Australia is the most sensitive region for the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction, the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and water resources are discussed as an extension of this research.
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Franz, K. J., and T. S. Hogue. "Evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic models: borrowing measures from the forecast verification community." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 8, no. 2 (March 30, 2011): 3085–131. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-8-3085-2011.
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Abstract. The hydrologic community is generally moving towards the use of probabilistic estimates of streamflow, primarily through the implementation of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) systems, ensemble data assimilation methods, or multi-modeling platforms. However, evaluation of probabilistic outputs has not necessarily kept pace with ensemble generation. Much of the modeling community is still performing model evaluation using standard deterministic measures, such as error, correlation, or bias, typically applied to the ensemble mean or median. Probabilistic forecast verification methods have been well developed, particularly in the atmospheric sciences yet, few have been adopted for evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic model simulations. In the current paper, we overview existing probabilistic forecast verification methods and apply the methods to evaluate and compare model ensembles produced from different parameter uncertainty estimation methods. The Generalized Uncertainty Likelihood Estimator (GLUE), a modified version of GLUE, and the Shuffle Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) are used to generate model ensembles for the National Weather Service SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for 12 forecast basins located in the Southeastern United States. We evaluate the model ensembles using relevant metrics in the following categories: distribution, correlation, accuracy, conditional statistics, and categorical statistics. We show that the probabilistic metrics are easily adapted to model simulation ensembles and provide a robust analysis of parameter uncertainty, one that is commensurate with the dimension of the ensembles themselves. Application of these methods requires no information in addition to what is already available as part of traditional model validation methodology and considers the entire ensemble or uncertainty range in the approach.
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Davolio, S., M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, and A. Montani. "A flood episode in Northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 12 (December 4, 2012): 13415–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-13415-2012.
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Abstract. Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km), and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System). The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (Northern Italy), for a recent severe weather episode affecting Northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over the entire Northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that both mesoscale model ensembles remarkably outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale as the horizontal resolution plays a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides more informative probabilistic predictions with respect to COSMO-LEPS, since it is characterized by a larger spread especially at short lead times. A thorough analysis of the multi-model results shows that this behaviour is due to the different characteristics of the involved meteorological models and represents the added value of the multi-model approach. Finally, a different behaviour comes out at different forecast ranges. For short ranges, the impact of boundary conditions is weaker and the spread can be mainly attributed to the different characteristics of the models. At longer forecast ranges, the similar behaviour of the multi-model members, forced by the same large scale conditions, indicates that the systems are governed mainly by the large scale boundary conditions.
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Franz, K. J., and T. S. Hogue. "Evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic models: borrowing measures from the forecast verification community." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 11 (November 15, 2011): 3367–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3367-2011.
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Abstract. The hydrologic community is generally moving towards the use of probabilistic estimates of streamflow, primarily through the implementation of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) systems, ensemble data assimilation methods, or multi-modeling platforms. However, evaluation of probabilistic outputs has not necessarily kept pace with ensemble generation. Much of the modeling community is still performing model evaluation using standard deterministic measures, such as error, correlation, or bias, typically applied to the ensemble mean or median. Probabilistic forecast verification methods have been well developed, particularly in the atmospheric sciences, yet few have been adopted for evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic model simulations. In the current paper, we overview existing probabilistic forecast verification methods and apply the methods to evaluate and compare model ensembles produced from two different parameter uncertainty estimation methods: the Generalized Uncertainty Likelihood Estimator (GLUE), and the Shuffle Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM). Model ensembles are generated for the National Weather Service SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for 12 forecast basins located in the Southeastern United States. We evaluate the model ensembles using relevant metrics in the following categories: distribution, correlation, accuracy, conditional statistics, and categorical statistics. We show that the presented probabilistic metrics are easily adapted to model simulation ensembles and provide a robust analysis of model performance associated with parameter uncertainty. Application of these methods requires no information in addition to what is already available as part of traditional model validation methodology and considers the entire ensemble or uncertainty range in the approach.
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Krasnopolsky, Vladimir M., and Ying Lin. "A Neural Network Nonlinear Multimodel Ensemble to Improve Precipitation Forecasts over Continental US." Advances in Meteorology 2012 (2012): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/649450.
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A novel multimodel ensemble approach based on learning from data using the neural network (NN) technique is formulated and applied for improving 24-hour precipitation forecasts over the continental US. The developed nonlinear approach allowed us to account for nonlinear correlation between ensemble members and to produce “optimal” forecast represented by a nonlinear NN ensemble mean. The NN approach is compared with the conservative multi-model ensemble, with multiple linear regression ensemble approaches, and with results obtained by human forecasters. The NN multi-model ensemble improves upon conservative multi-model ensemble and multiple linear regression ensemble, it (1) significantly reduces high bias at low precipitation level, (2) significantly reduces low bias at high precipitation level, and (3) sharpens features making them closer to the observed ones. The NN multi-model ensemble performs at least as well as human forecasters supplied with the same information. The developed approach is a generic approach that can be applied to other multi-model ensemble fields as well as to single model ensembles.
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Davolio, S., M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, and A. Montani. "A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 6 (June 5, 2013): 2107–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013.
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Abstract. Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km), and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (limited-area ensemble prediction system). The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (northern Italy), for a recent severe weather episode affecting northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that, for the intercomparison undertaken in this specific study, both mesoscale model ensembles outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale. Horizontal resolution is found to play a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides a better indication concerning the occurrence, intensity and timing of the two observed discharge peaks, with respect to COSMO-LEPS. This seems to be ascribable to the different behaviour of the involved meteorological models. Finally, a different behaviour comes out at different forecast ranges. For short ranges, the impact of boundary conditions is weaker and the spread can be mainly attributed to the different characteristics of the models. At longer forecast ranges, the similar behaviour of the multi-model members forced by the same large-scale conditions indicates that the systems are governed mainly by the boundary conditions, although the different limited area models' characteristics may still have a non-negligible impact.
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Wei, Xiaomin, Xiaogong Sun, Jilin Sun, Jinfang Yin, Jing Sun, and Chongjian Liu. "A Comparative Study of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting Accuracy between Equal- and Variant-Weight Techniques." Atmosphere 13, no. 4 (March 25, 2022): 526. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13040526.
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Previous studies on multi-model ensemble forecasting mainly focused on the weight allocation of each model, but did not discuss how to suppress the reduction of ensemble forecasting accuracy when adding poorer models. Based on a variant weight (VW) method and the equal weight (EW) method, this study explored this topic through theoretical and real case analyses. A theoretical proof is made, showing that this VW method can improve the forecasting accuracy of a multi-model ensemble, in the case of either the same models combination or adding an even worse model into the original multi-model ensemble, compared to the EW method. Comparative multi-model ensemble forecasting experiments against a real case between the VW and EW methods show that the forecasting accuracy of a multi-model ensemble applying the VW method is better than that of each individual model (including the model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The 2 m temperature forecasting applying the VW method is superior to that applying the EW method for all the multi-model ensembles. Both theoretical proof and numerical experiments show that an improved forecast, better than a best model, is generally possible.
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Hargreaves, J. C., A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan. "Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?" Climate of the Past 7, no. 3 (August 22, 2011): 917–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-917-2011.
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Abstract. We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2), pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean) does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day. However, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained.
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Hargreaves, J. C., A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan. "Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?" Climate of the Past Discussions 7, no. 2 (March 1, 2011): 775–807. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-7-775-2011.
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Abstract. We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2), pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean) does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day, however, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained.
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Hyde, Richard, Ryan Hossaini, and Amber A. Leeson. "Cluster-based analysis of multi-model climate ensembles." Geoscientific Model Development 11, no. 6 (June 4, 2018): 2033–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2033-2018.
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Abstract. Clustering – the automated grouping of similar data – can provide powerful and unique insight into large and complex data sets, in a fast and computationally efficient manner. While clustering has been used in a variety of fields (from medical image processing to economics), its application within atmospheric science has been fairly limited to date, and the potential benefits of the application of advanced clustering techniques to climate data (both model output and observations) has yet to be fully realised. In this paper, we explore the specific application of clustering to a multi-model climate ensemble. We hypothesise that clustering techniques can provide (a) a flexible, data-driven method of testing model–observation agreement and (b) a mechanism with which to identify model development priorities. We focus our analysis on chemistry–climate model (CCM) output of tropospheric ozone – an important greenhouse gas – from the recent Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Tropospheric column ozone from the ACCMIP ensemble was clustered using the Data Density based Clustering (DDC) algorithm. We find that a multi-model mean (MMM) calculated using members of the most-populous cluster identified at each location offers a reduction of up to ∼ 20 % in the global absolute mean bias between the MMM and an observed satellite-based tropospheric ozone climatology, with respect to a simple, all-model MMM. On a spatial basis, the bias is reduced at ∼ 62 % of all locations, with the largest bias reductions occurring in the Northern Hemisphere – where ozone concentrations are relatively large. However, the bias is unchanged at 9 % of all locations and increases at 29 %, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. The latter demonstrates that although cluster-based subsampling acts to remove outlier model data, such data may in fact be closer to observed values in some locations. We further demonstrate that clustering can provide a viable and useful framework in which to assess and visualise model spread, offering insight into geographical areas of agreement among models and a measure of diversity across an ensemble. Finally, we discuss caveats of the clustering techniques and note that while we have focused on tropospheric ozone, the principles underlying the cluster-based MMMs are applicable to other prognostic variables from climate models.
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Hodson, D. L. R., and R. T. Sutton. "Exploring multi-model atmospheric GCM ensembles with ANOVA." Climate Dynamics 31, no. 7-8 (February 5, 2008): 973–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0372-z.
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Yokohata, Tokuta, James D. Annan, Matthew Collins, Charles S. Jackson, Michael Tobis, Mark J. Webb, and Julia C. Hargreaves. "Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles." Climate Dynamics 39, no. 3-4 (October 12, 2011): 599–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1.
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Elvidge, Sean, Humberto C. Godinez, and Matthew J. Angling. "Improved forecasting of thermospheric densities using multi-model ensembles." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 6 (July 1, 2016): 2279–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2279-2016.
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Abstract. This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly, cancel. The MME, with its reduced uncertainties, can then be used as the initial conditions in a physics-based thermosphere model for forecasting. This should increase the forecast skill since a reduction in the errors of the initial conditions of a model generally increases model skill. In this paper the Thermosphere–Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar Exosphere 2000 (NRLMSISE-00), and Global Ionosphere–Thermosphere Model (GITM) have been used to construct the MME. As well as comparisons between the MMEs and the “standard” runs of the model, the MME densities have been propagated forward in time using the TIE-GCM. It is shown that thermospheric forecasts of up to 6 h, using the MME, have a reduction in the root mean square error of greater than 60 %. The paper also highlights differences in model performance between times of solar minimum and maximum.
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Mylne, Kenneth R., Ruth E. Evans, and Robin T. Clark. "Multi-model multi-analysis ensembles in quasi-operational medium-range forecasting." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128, no. 579 (January 1, 2002): 361–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/00359000260498923.
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Adejo, Olugbenga Wilson, and Thomas Connolly. "Predicting student academic performance using multi-model heterogeneous ensemble approach." Journal of Applied Research in Higher Education 10, no. 1 (February 5, 2018): 61–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jarhe-09-2017-0113.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate and compare the use of multiple data sources, different classifiers and ensembles of classifiers technique in predicting student academic performance. The study will compare the performance and efficiency of ensemble techniques that make use of different combination of data sources with that of base classifiers with single data source. Design/methodology/approach Using a quantitative research methodology, data samples of 141 learners enrolled in the University of the West of Scotland were extracted from the institution’s databases and also collected through survey questionnaire. The research focused on three data sources: student record system, learning management system and survey, and also used three state-of-art data mining classifiers, namely, decision tree, artificial neural network and support vector machine for the modeling. In addition, the ensembles of these base classifiers were used in the student performance prediction and the performances of the seven different models developed were compared using six different evaluation metrics. Findings The results show that the approach of using multiple data sources along with heterogeneous ensemble techniques is very efficient and accurate in prediction of student performance as well as help in proper identification of student at risk of attrition. Practical implications The approach proposed in this study will help the educational administrators and policy makers working within educational sector in the development of new policies and curriculum on higher education that are relevant to student retention. In addition, the general implications of this research to practice is its ability to accurately help in early identification of students at risk of dropping out of HE from the combination of data sources so that necessary support and intervention can be provided. Originality/value The research empirically investigated and compared the performance accuracy and efficiency of single classifiers and ensemble of classifiers that make use of single and multiple data sources. The study has developed a novel hybrid model that can be used for predicting student performance that is high in accuracy and efficient in performance. Generally, this research study advances the understanding of the application of ensemble techniques to predicting student performance using learner data and has successfully addressed these fundamental questions: What combination of variables will accurately predict student academic performance? What is the potential of the use of stacking ensemble techniques in accurately predicting student academic performance?
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Wootten, Adrienne M., Elias C. Massoud, Agniv Sengupta, Duane E. Waliser, and Huikyo Lee. "The Effect of Statistical Downscaling on the Weighting of Multi-Model Ensembles of Precipitation." Climate 8, no. 12 (November 25, 2020): 138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli8120138.
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Recently, assessments of global climate model (GCM) ensembles have transitioned from using unweighted means to weighted means designed to account for skill and interdependence among models. Although ensemble-weighting schemes are typically derived using a GCM ensemble, statistically downscaled projections are used in climate change assessments. This study applies four ensemble-weighting schemes for model averaging to precipitation projections in the south-central United States. The weighting schemes are applied to (1) a 26-member GCM ensemble and (2) those 26 members downscaled using Localized Canonical Analogs (LOCA). This study is distinct from prior research because it compares the interactions of ensemble-weighting schemes with GCMs and statistical downscaling to produce summarized climate projection products. The analysis indicates that statistical downscaling improves the ensemble accuracy (LOCA average root mean square error is 100 mm less than the CMIP5 average root mean square error) and reduces the uncertainty of the projected ensemble-mean change. Furthermore, averaging the LOCA ensemble using Bayesian Model Averaging reduces the uncertainty beyond any other combination of weighting schemes and ensemble (standard deviation of the mean projected change in the domain is reduced by 40–50 mm). The results also indicate that it is inappropriate to assume that a weighting scheme derived from a GCM ensemble matches the same weights derived using a downscaled ensemble.
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Ruiz-Aĺvarez, Marcos, Francisco Gomariz-Castillo, and Francisco Alonso-Sarría. "Evapotranspiration Response to Climate Change in Semi-Arid Areas: Using Random Forest as Multi-Model Ensemble Method." Water 13, no. 2 (January 18, 2021): 222. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13020222.
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Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. In this work, we propose a framework to evaluate the predictive capacity of 11 multi-model ensemble methods (MMEs), including random forest (RF), to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET0) using 10 AR5 models for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study was carried out in the Segura Hydrographic Demarcation (SE of Spain), a typical Mediterranean semiarid area. ET0 was estimated in the historical scenario (1970–2000) using a spatially calibrated Hargreaves model. MMEs obtained better results than any individual model for reproducing daily ET0. In validation, RF resulted more accurate than other MMEs (Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) M=0.903, SD=0.034 for KGE and M=3.17, SD=2.97 for absolute percent bias). A statistically significant positive trend was observed along the 21st century for RCP8.5, but this trend stabilizes in the middle of the century for RCP4.5. The observed spatial pattern shows a larger ET0 increase in headwaters and a smaller increase in the coast.
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Velázquez, J. A., F. Anctil, M. H. Ramos, and C. Perrin. "Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures." Advances in Geosciences 29 (February 28, 2011): 33–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-33-2011.
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Abstract. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting system based on a meteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS) coupled with a hydrological model searches to capture the uncertainties associated with the meteorological prediction to better predict river flows. However, the structure of the hydrological model is also an important source of uncertainty that has to be taken into account. This study aims at evaluating and comparing the performance and the reliability of different types of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS), when ensemble weather forecasts are combined with a multi-model approach. The study is based on 29 catchments in France and 16 lumped hydrological model structures, driven by the weather forecasts from the European centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF). Results show that the ensemble predictions produced by a combination of several hydrological model structures and meteorological ensembles have higher skill and reliability than ensemble predictions given either by one single hydrological model fed by weather ensemble predictions or by several hydrological models and a deterministic meteorological forecast.
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Ohba, Masamichi, Shinji Kadokura, and Daisuke Nohara. "Medium-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation and Ramps in Japan Based on a Hybrid Ensemble." Atmosphere 9, no. 11 (October 29, 2018): 423. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9110423.
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This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from the Japanese 55-year atmospheric Reanalysis JRA-55 over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.
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Johnson, Aaron, and Xuguang Wang. "Interactions between Physics Diversity and Multiscale Initial Condition Perturbations for Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 8 (August 1, 2020): 3549–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-20-0112.1.
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Abstract This study investigates impacts on convection-permitting ensemble forecast performance of different methods of generating the ensemble IC perturbations in the context of simultaneous physics diversity among the ensemble members. A total of 10 convectively active cases are selected for a systematic comparison of different methods of perturbing IC perturbations in 10-member convection-permitting ensembles, both with and without physics diversity. These IC perturbation methods include simple downscaling of coarse perturbations from a global model (LARGE), perturbations generated with ensemble data assimilation directly on the multiscale domain (MULTI), and perturbations generated using each method with small scales filtered out as a control. MULTI was found to be significantly more skillful than LARGE at early lead times in all ensemble physics configurations, with the advantage of MULTI gradually decreasing with increasing forecast lead time. The advantage of MULTI, relative to LARGE, was reduced but not eliminated by the presence of physics diversity because of the extra ensemble spread that the physics diversity provided. The advantage of MULTI, relative to LARGE, was also reduced by filtering the IC perturbations to a commonly resolved spatial scale in both ensembles, which highlights the importance of flow-dependent small-scale (<~10 m) IC perturbations in the ensemble design. The importance of the physics diversity, relative to the IC perturbation method, depended on the spatial scale of interest, forecast lead time, and the meteorological characteristics of the forecast case. Such meteorological characteristics include the strength of synoptic-scale forcing, the role of cold pool interactions, and the occurrence of convective initiation or dissipation.
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Tan, Tse Guan, Jason Teo, Kim On Chin, and Patricia Anthony. "Pareto Ensembles for Evolutionary Synthesis of Neurocontrollers in a 2D Maze-Based Video Game." Applied Mechanics and Materials 284-287 (January 2013): 3173–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.284-287.3173.
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In this paper, we present a study of evolving artificial neural network controllers for autonomously playing maze-based video game. A system using multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is developed, which is called as Pareto Archived Evolution Strategy Neural Network (PAESNet), with the attempt to find a set of Pareto optimal solutions by simultaneously optimizing two conflicting objectives. The experiments are designed to address two research aims investigating: (1) evolving weights (including biases) of the connections between the neurons and structure of the network through multi-objective evolutionary algorithm in order to reduce its runtime operation and complexity, (2) improving the generalization ability of the networks by using neural network ensemble model. A comparative analysis between the single network model as the baseline system and the model built based on the neural ensemble are presented. The evidence from this study suggests that Pareto multi-objective paradigm and neural network ensembles can be effective for creating and controlling the behaviors of video game characters.
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Davolio, S., T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, M. M. Miglietta, A. Montani, and A. Morgillo. "Comparing different meteorological ensemble approaches: hydrological predictions for a flood episode in Northern Italy." Advances in Science and Research 8, no. 1 (March 21, 2012): 33–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-33-2012.
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Abstract. Within the framework of coupled meteorological-hydrological predictions, this study aims at comparing two high-resolution meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range. The two modelling systems have similar characteristics, as almost the same number of members, the model resolution (about 7 km), the driving ECMWF global ensemble prediction system, but are obtained through different methodologies: the former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter follows a single-model approach, based on COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System), the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium. Precipitation forecasts are evaluated in terms of hydrological response, after coupling the meteorological models with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno river (Northern Italy), for a severe weather episode. Although a single case study does not allow for robust and definite conclusions, the comparison among different predictions points out a remarkably better performance of mesoscale model ensemble forecasts compared to global ones. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble outperforms the single model approach.
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Saleh, F., V. Ramaswamy, N. Georgas, A. F. Blumberg, and J. Pullen. "Inter-comparison between retrospective ensemble streamflow forecasts using meteorological inputs from ECMWF and NOAA/ESRL in the Hudson River sub-basins during Hurricane Irene (2011)." Hydrology Research 50, no. 1 (August 20, 2018): 166–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2018.182.
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Abstract The objective of this work was to evaluate the benefits of using multi-model meteorological ensembles in representing the uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts. An inter-comparison experiment was performed using meteorological inputs from different models corresponding to Hurricane Irene (2011), over three sub-basins of the Hudson River basin. The ensemble-based precipitation inputs were used as forcing in a hydrological model to retrospectively forecast hourly streamflow, with a 96-hour lead time. The inputs consisted of 73 ensemble members, namely one high-resolution ECMWF deterministic member, 51 ECMWF members and 21 NOAA/ESRL (GEFS Reforecasts v2) members. The precipitation inputs were resampled to a common grid using the bilinear resampling method that was selected upon analysing different resampling methods. The results show the advantages of forcing hydrologic forecasting systems with multi-model ensemble forecasts over using deterministic and single model ensemble forecasts. The work showed that using the median of all 73 ensemble streamflow forecasts relatively improved the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency and lowered the biases across the examined sub-basins, compared with using the ensemble median from an individual model. This research contributes to the growing literature that demonstrates the promising capabilities of multi-model systems to better describe the uncertainty in streamflow predictions.
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Xu, Fengyang, Guanbin Li, Yunfei Du, Zhiguang Chen, and Yutong Lu. "Multi-Layer Networks for Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts Postprocessing." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 35, no. 17 (May 18, 2021): 14966–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v35i17.17756.
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The postprocessing method of ensemble forecasts is usually used to find a more precise estimate of future precipitation, because dynamic meteorology models have limitations in fitting fine-grained atmospheric processes and precipitation is driven more often by smaller-scale processes, while ensemble forecasts can hit this precipitation at times. However, the pattern of these hits cannot be easily summarized. The existing objective postprocessing methods tend to extend the rain area or false alarm the precipitation intensity categories. In this work, we introduce a multi-layer structure to simultaneously reduce the bias in forecast ensembles output by meteorology models and merge them to a quality deterministic (single-valued) forecast using cross-grid information, which differs quite dramatically from the previous statistical postprocessing method. The multi-layer network is designed to model the spatial distribution of future precipitation of different intensity categories(IC-MLNet). We provide a comparison of IC-MLNet to simple average as well as another two state-of-the-art ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) postprocessing approaches over both single-model and multi-model ensemble forecasts datasets from TIGGE. The experimental results indicate that our model achieves superior performance over the compared baselines in precipitation amount prediction as well as precipitation intensities categories prediction.
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Yan, Xiaoqin, and Youmin Tang. "An analysis of multi-model ensembles for seasonal climate predictions." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139, no. 674 (October 15, 2012): 1179–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2020.
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Johns, T. C., J. F. Royer, I. Höschel, H. Huebener, E. Roeckner, E. Manzini, W. May, et al. "Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment." Climate Dynamics 37, no. 9-10 (February 11, 2011): 1975–2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1005-5.
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Diallo, I., M. B. Sylla, F. Giorgi, A. T. Gaye, and M. Camara. "Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century." International Journal of Geophysics 2012 (2012): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/972896.
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Reliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global climate models (GCMs) (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs) in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa. The results show that the individual RCM members as well as their ensemble employing the same driving fields exhibit different biases and show mixed results in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation, indicating a substantial sensitivity of RCMs to regional and local processes. These biases are reduced and GCM simulations improved upon by averaging all four RCM simulations, suggesting that multi-model RCM ensembles based on different driving GCMs help to compensate systematic errors from both the nested and the driving models. This confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for improving robustness of climate change projections. Illustrative examples of such ensemble reveal that the western Sahel undergoes substantial drying in future climate projections mostly due to a decrease in peak monsoon rainfall.
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Multsch, S., J. F. Exbrayat, M. Kirby, N. R. Viney, H. G. Frede, and L. Breuer. "Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging." Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 7, no. 6 (November 10, 2014): 7525–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-7525-2014.
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Abstract. Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.
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Multsch, S., J. F. Exbrayat, M. Kirby, N. R. Viney, H. G. Frede, and L. Breuer. "Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging." Geoscientific Model Development 8, no. 4 (April 29, 2015): 1233–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1233-2015.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.
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Palmer, T. N., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, and A. Weisheimer. "Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360, no. 1463 (October 24, 2005): 1991–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1750.
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The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed.
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Shin, Yonggwan, Youngsaeng Lee, and Jeong-Soo Park. "A Weighting Scheme in A Multi-Model Ensemble for Bias-Corrected Climate Simulation." Atmosphere 11, no. 8 (July 23, 2020): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080775.
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A model weighting scheme is important in multi-model climate ensembles for projecting future changes. The climate model output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used. When a bias-correction (BC) is applied, equal model weights are usually derived because some BC methods cause the observations and historical simulation to match perfectly. This equal weighting is sometimes criticized because it does not take into account the model performance. Unequal weights reflecting model performance may be obtained from raw data before BC is applied. However, we have observed that certain models produce excessively high weights, while the weights generated in all other models are extremely low. This phenomenon may be partly due to the fact that some models are more fit or calibrated to the observations for a given applications. To address these problems, we consider, in this study, a hybrid weighting scheme including both equal and unequal weights. The proposed approach applies an “imperfect” correction to the historical data in computing their weights, while it applies ordinary BC to the future data in computing the ensemble prediction. We employ a quantile mapping method for the BC and a Bayesian model averaging for performance-based weighting. Furthermore, techniques for selecting the optimal correction rate based on the chi-square test statistic and the continuous ranked probability score are examined. Comparisons with ordinary ensembles are provided using a perfect model test. The usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated using the annual maximum daily precipitation as observed in the Korean peninsula and simulated by 21 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.
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Saito, K., T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, and K. Yoshikawa. "LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?" Climate of the Past Discussions 9, no. 2 (March 25, 2013): 1565–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-1565-2013.
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Abstract. Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (21 k). This direct method was then compared to the earlier indirect method, which categorizes the underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applied to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 k showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map, although the soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity among the models partly due to varying complexity of the implemented subsurface processes. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the multi-model analysis was 25.6 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 12.7 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally, frozen ground increased from 22.5 million km2 to 32.6 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble-improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology-also compared better to previous knowledge derived from the geomorphological and geocryological evidences. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.