Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Multi-criteria analysi'

This thesis aims to demonstrate how these issues can be solved using specific case studies as examples. The first chapter is dedicated to an introduction to the LCA methodology, in which it is also possible to find a literature review focused on the strengths and weaknesses that may characterize LCA. The second part of the chapter details the methods utilized to analyze uncertainty in LCA results, the state of the art for streamlined and predictive approaches and, finally, an overview of a multi-criteria analysis method useful for materials selection. In particular, the uncertainty analysis associated with LCA results may represent the starting point for the development of streamlined LCA approaches and possible methods of forecasting the environmental results of novel technologies. On the other hand, the multi-criteria analysis grounded in the uncertainty analysis presents a robust method of materials selection in support of Ecodesign. In the second chapter, the uncertainty analysis is used to develop a streamlined LCA method founded on the probabilistic underspecification approach, proposed to support the building design process. The case studies analyzed in this section represent a series of residential building assemblies (exterior walls, interior walls, foundations, roofs, floors, windows, doors, exterior finishes) that were used to test the streamlined method and obtain distributions of results using a cradle-to-gate approach along five phases of the building design process. The bill of materials (BOM) of a building assembly can be specified using different levels of information, which can be really generic during the concept design and fully detailed during the executive project. The low-fidelity characterization of a BOM and the uncertainty associated with these low levels of fidelity are systematically quantified through probabilistic underspecification using a hierarchical classification of materials. Quantitative environmental results, processed with uncertainty analysis, were obtained using low-fidelity categories for materials and building assemblies, demonstrating that LCA can be applied not only when a complete and detailed BOM is available but also when fewer details are known. Finally, decision-making at different stages of the design process is sustained by this approach and is based on the use of a comparison indicator. The third chapter advances the research aimed at streamlining the LCA of buildings with probabilistic underspecification and uncertainty analysis. In particular, it investigates whether LCA can be robustly streamlined through an effective and efficient triage of data collection and the consequent selected use of specific and resource-intensive information. In this context, tests were conducted with a series of building typologies (single-family detached houses and multi-family residential buildings), again analyzed with a cradle-to-gate approach. The probabilistic triage approach was tested to clarify how to use probabilistic underspecification and reduce the effort involved in specification by identifying the activities that require careful characterization. With this approach, by specifying only one part of the bill of materials to the highest level of specificity, the results proved to be both reasonably accurate and obtainable with less effort. Impacts such as global warming, acidification, eutrophication, and smog creation were assessed, and the results indicated that just 40-46% of the BOM components represent 75% of the total impacts of both single-family houses and multi-family buildings. Where the second and third chapters were devoted to the streamlined analysis of conventional products, the fourth chapter addresses the use of uncertainty analysis to forecast the environmental burden of an innovative material. Here, a scale-up protocol for an environmental impact assessment is proposed as a means to develop a streamlined ex-ante LCA approach. The novel element of this chapter consists of the adopted scale-up protocol. It does not rely on primary data collected by monitoring real industrial systems, as these data do not yet exist for the product of interest; instead, data measured in a plant at the pilot scale are used alongside data simulated from thermo-chemical considerations based on the stoichiometry of the considered reaction. The scale-up protocol is described and then applied to the case of polybutylene succinate (PBS), a biopolymer that is gaining attention (particularly as a replacement for polyolefins) and is obtained from bio-based succinic acid. Monte Carlo simulation was used to process the uncertainty data for all of the assessments, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate and compare the different renewable sources and chemical routes available for the production of bio-based succinic acid. The case study of PBS highlights how innovative products can be analyzed without the use of primary data, providing a way to forecast environmental impacts for novel technologies. The advantages of the adopted scale-up methodology consist of the ease of implementation and the possibility of strengthening the Ecodesign approach. In the fifth chapter, a multi-criteria analysis was used to complete the ex-ante LCA results for PBS. The purpose of this analysis was to compare PBS to alternative materials on the basis of more than one property and for use in a specific function. This approach led to the definition of a new concept of the system boundary of the assessment: from cradle to function. The motivation for this alternative strategy stems from the application of the LCA framework to a material to obtain an ecoprofile: the scope of the analysis is generally from cradle to the factory gate, while the unit of mass (or volume) of the material is usually taken as the functional unit for the analysis. However, these methodological choices place relevant limitations on the effectiveness of the assessment. In this chapter, a multi-criteria materials approach was tested using the PBS results to verify and validate the environmental viability of this material’s usage in packaging films. The most novel element of this research is the use of the customized ex-ante LCA and the uncertainty analysis, the latter of which is used to determine the uncertainty in material indices. The results were graphically represented with Ashby plots. When elongation at break and environmental performance were considered, PBS displayed a performance that was better than other traditional polyesters and comparable to the polyolefins considered; performance in terms of this set of properties is particularly beneficial in the case of secondary packaging. In the case of primary packaging, barrier properties acquire major relevance; in this regard, PBS presented among the best trade-offs for the simultaneous optimization of oxygen permeability, elongation at break and environmental impact. Finally, the sixth chapter is devoted to the review of the approaches that were implemented and tested to streamline LCA, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses for each analyzed system and discussing future methodological developments. In particular, the uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was used not just to characterize the quality of results but also to develop and implement streamlined approaches. Moreover, the uncertainty analysis proved to be useful for forecasting environmental results for early-stage systems and innovative materials.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited
Numerous optimization problems involve systems with multiple and often contradictory criteria. Such contradictory criteria have been an issue for marine/naval engineering design studies for many years. This problem becomes more important when one considers novel ship types with very limited or no operational record. A number of approaches have been proposed to overcome these multiple criteria design optimization problems. This Thesis follows the Parameter Space Investigation (PSI) technique to address these problems. The PSI method is implemented with a software package called MOVI (Multi-criteria Optimization and Vector Identification). Two marine/naval engineering design optimization models were investigated using the PSI technique along with the MOVI software. The first example was a bulk carrier design model which was previously studied with other optimization methods. This model, which was selected due to its relatively small dimensionality and the availability of existing studies, was utilized in order to demonstrate and validate the features of the proposed approach. A more realistic example was based on the "MIT Functional Ship Design Synthesis Model" with a greater number of parameters, criteria, and functional constraints. A series of optimization studies conducted for this model demonstrated that the proposed approach can be implemented in a naval ship design environment and can lead to a large design parameter space exploration with minimum computational effort.
Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy

Thesis (M.S. in Mechanical Engineering)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005.
Thesis Advisor(s): Fotis Papoulias, Roman B. Statnikov. Includes bibliographical references (p. 241). Also available online.

Mixing is a key process in microfluidic systems since that samples and reagents generally need to be mixed thoroughly before chemical or biological analysis or reactions. Micromixers are designed to fulfil this critical process. In general, the development of microdevices is a competitive field that requires from researchers shorter times and lower costs in prototyping. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) helps in reducing the time from concept to device design. Intuition and experience of the designer is usually behind its application on design improvement, by analyzing some physical variables to determine the effect of design parameters and to adjust them accordingly to the pursued objectives. In this thesis, a design and optimization strategy is presented and used for the analysis and design of micromixers. The method systematically integrates CFD with an optimization strategy based on the use of Design of Experiments, Surrogate Modelling and Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm techniques. The aim is to define optimum designs that give the trade-off of the performance parameters, which in this study are the mixing index, defined on the basis of mass concentration distribution, and the pressure drop in the microchannel. Three types of micromixers have been studied and their geometric parameters have been optimized. They are the Staggered Herringbone Mixer and two novel designs, a planar micromixer with baffles in the microchannel and a 3-D T-type micromixer. A completed fabrication method was implemented as part of this thesis work and it was used to fabricate some of the micromixers. Experimental measurements and published data have been used to validate the numerical results. The outcomes of this thesis demonstrate that using advanced optimisation techniques on the basis of CFD solutions and analyses allows the design of optimum micromixers for different operation conditions, which can be set by the designer, without being necessary to use a referential design to start the method.

This study is conducted with the aims to develop a new ranking method for multi-criteria decision making problem with conflicting criteria. Such a problem has a set of Pareto solutions, where the act of improving a value of one solution will result in depreciating some of the others. Thus, in this type of problem, there is no unique solution. However, out of many available options, the Decision Maker eventually has to choose only one solution. With this problem as the motivation, the current study develops a compromise ranking algorithm, namely a trade-off ranking method. The trade-off ranking method able to give a trade-off solution with the least compromise compared to other choices as the best solution. The properties of the algorithm are studied in the thesis on several test cases. The proposed method is compared against several multi-criteria decision making methods with ranking based on the distance measure, which are the TOPSIS, relative distance and VIKOR. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty test are carried out to examine the methods robustness. A critical criteria analysis is also done to test for the most critical criterion in a multi-criteria problem. The decision making method is considered further in a fuzzy environment problem where the fuzzy trade-off ranking is developed and compared against existing fuzzy decision making methods.

Community benefit schemes in the context of wind power are increasingly provisioned by developers as a means of generating local socio-economic and environmental value, fostering social relations and strengthening acceptance. Determining an appropriate and effective benefit scheme can prove challenging, given the variation of exposed stakeholders, diversity in schemes and the lack of decision making guidance. A multi-criteria decision aid framework for identifying the most appropriate scheme(s) for a hypothetical wind power project is developed. The framework is based on AHP and PROMETHEE II decision support tool, where six (6) alternative schemes are assessed using the preferences of five (5) stakeholders and their relevant criteria. The framework was applied to a fictitious development on the island of Gotland. Results from the applied example indicate that the most locally suited outcome was the ownership based models. It is anticipated that the methodological framework can help identify the scheme(s) that respond to the needs and preferences of the locality. Moreover, a decision making platform of this nature can provide practical support to developers, communities and local authorities, and contribute to a more effective and efficient development and negotiation process surrounding community benefit schemes.

The process of energy management requires several judgments of different fields. So the best solution is the using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in creating Decision Support System (DSS).

The pearl oyster Pinctada martensii or Pinctada fucata is the oyster for produce the South China Sea Pearl, and the production of pearl oyster Pinctada martensii plays a key role for the economic and social welfare of the coastal areas. To guarantee both rich and sustainability of providing pearl oyster productions, addressing the suitable areas for aquaculture is a very important consideration in any aquaculture activities. Relatively rarely, in the case of site selection research, the researchers use GIS analysis to identify suitable sites in fishery industry in China. Therefore, I decided to help the local government to search suitable sites form the view of GIS context. This study was conducted to find the optimal sites for suspended culture of pearl oyster Pinctada martensii using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. The original idea came from the research of Radiarta and his colleagues in 2008 in Japan. Most of the parameters in the GIS model were extracted from remote sensing data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat 7). Eleven thematic layers were arranged into three sub-models, namely: biophysical model, social-economic model and constraint model. The biophysical model includes sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-α concentration, suspended sediment concentration and bathymetry. The criteria in the social-economic model are distance to cities and towns and distance to piers. The constraint model was used to exclude the places from the research area where the natural conditions cannot be fulfilled for the development of pearl oyster aquaculture; it contains river mouth, tourism area, harbor, salt fields / shrimp ponds, and non-related water area. Finally those GIS sub-models were used to address the optimal sites for pearl oyster Pinctada martensii culture by using weighted linear combination evaluation. In the final result, suitability levels were arranged from 1 (least suitable) to 8 (most suitable), and about 2.4% of the total potential area had the higher levels (level 6 and 7). These areas were considered to be the places that have the most suitable conditions for pearl oyster Pinctada martensii for costal water of Yingpan.

With the rapid advancement of technologies, software is gaining its popularity in assisting our daily activities in the last decades. This circumstance causes a rising concerns about a software product with high quality which lead to a question about the justification whether a software product has high quality. Therefore, a numerous of researches and studies had spent a lot of effort in software product quality assessment in order to justify whether the software product(s) under study have satisfactory quality. One of the foremost approaches to assess software product quality is the application of the quality models. For example, quality model ISO 9126. However, the quality models do not provide an explicit way to aggregate the performance of different quality aspects nor handling the various interests raised from different perspective or stakeholders. Although many studies have been conducted to aggregate the different measures of quality attributes, they are still not capable to include the various interests raised by different software product stakeholders. Therefore, some studies have attempted to apply MCDA methods in order to aggregate the measure of quality attributes as the ultimate software product quality and handling the various quality interests. However, they do not provide any rational about their particular choice of MCDA methods. Most of them justify their choice by referring to high popularity of the selected MCDA method. Without studying the suitability of MCDA methods in the application domain of the software product, it is difficult to conclude whether the chosen MCDA methods fit in the intended software engineering discipline. Furthermore, there is no systematic approach available to help other software practitioners in selecting the MCDA method that will be suitable for their needs and constraints in software product quality assessment. This thesis aims to provide the key concepts for an effective selection of suitable MCDA method for the purpose of software product quality assessment. A foremost part of this thesis presents two systematic reviews. The first review illustrates the evaluation of the characteristics of MCDA methods. The second review identifies the major needs and constraints of the software quality assessment potential MCDA method has to consider in order to be used for assessing quality of software products. Based on the results from both systematic reviews, a selection framework named MCDA-SQA framework is formulated. This framework is intended to assist the software practitioners to systematically select and adapt appropriate MCDA method(s) in order to fulfil their quality assessment needs and the respective environmental concerns.

The thesis applies the theories of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with a constructive research to the environment of real estate portfolio management. The aim of the research is to create a preference model for sorting real estates. There are multiple conflicting and incommensurable criteria involved in MCDA that cause a challenging decision situation for the decision maker. The advantage of using MCDA is decision maker’s ability to learn and understand both his own and others’ values and judgments. These benefits are received by actions such as taking the decision maker’s preferences into account and concerning the decision problem explicitly by structuring and synthesizing the information. Previously, Multi Attribute theories have been successfully applied to the portfolio selection of road pavement and bridge repairing projects, for example. The research was implemented in three sections from which the first one was a theoretical review that sought to present the basics of MCDA by defining the Multi Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) process. After theoretical review followed the data collection and analysis that aimed to identify the guiding criteria for the decision making and the attributes by which the achievement of the criteria being measured. The thesis was outlined to consider only the effect of the property specific endogenous factors. The last section of the study, construction, applies the information got from the previous sections by creating a preference model for the decision making of property portfolio management. The process and value tree described in the study were constructed from the perspective of real estate owners who own properties only as an investment. As a result of the thesis, five criteria were formed by which the sorting of real estates is evaluated. The criteria were: a macro location that seeks to describe the macro environmental development, a micro location that takes a stand on how reachable the real estate is, a contract price that presented the income side of the cash flow, a repairing need that was included because it has a high effect on the outcomes, and the ability to develop which means the capability of a building to produce financial benefits with the development operations. The suggested attributes for the criteria were for macro location the new construction production of the property type in relation to the development of areal GDP, for micro location the transportation time and type from the areal center, for the contract price the average of the contract prices in relation to the area of each rental agreement, for repairing needs the repairing costs got from the long term repairing plan and for ability to develop was seen that best option to measure the achievement of it would be expert opinion. The study did not take a stand on the weights of the criteria nor the value functions of the attributes because it would require focusing on the single real estate investor whereas this thesis was desired to keep on the general level. As a whole, it was concluded that creating a universal model for sorting real estates is not possible because of the unique nature of the weights and value functions. Therefore it would be more appropriate to execute the model constructing process with the case investor. The process described in this study should, however, give readiness to create a preference model for the investors that were in the focus of this work. The preference model formed as a result of the process will propose an interest of sorting based on the endogenous property specific features. However, the model should be used only as an assistance in decision making so that the decision maker would use it to support his decisions
Diplomityö pyrkii konstruktiivisen tutkimuksen avulla soveltamaan monikriteerisiä päätösanalyysiteorioita (Multi Criteria Decision Analysis — MCDA) kiinteistöportfoliohallinnan päätöksentekoon. Teorioita sovelletaan työssä kehittämällä kiinteistöportfoliohallinnan päätöksentekoa avustava malli. MCDA on oppi metodeista ja lähestymistavoista, joissa eri vaihtoehtojen paremmuutta arvioidaan suhteessa päätöksentekijän asettamiin tavoitteisiin. Teorioiden käsittelemien päätösongelmien luonteeseen kuuluvat useat ristiriitaiset ja yhteismitattomat kriteerit, jotka tekevät päätöksenteosta erittäin haasteellista. MCDA:n tuoma arvo päätöksentekoon syntyy sen jäsennellystä ja selkeästä tavasta käsitellä päätösongelmaa, minkä johdosta päätöksentekijä tulee tietoisemmaksi itse päätösongelmasta sekä omista ja muiden sidosryhmien arvoista ja tavoitteista. Monikriteerisiä päätösanalyysiteorioita on sovellettu aiemmin esimerkiksi infrapuolella siltojen kunnossapitoprojektien valintaan. Kehitetyn matemaattisen mallin avulla pystyttiin analyyttisesti arvioimaan kunkin vaihtoehdon hyvyyttä ja poimimaan siltakannasta eniten päätöksentekijän tavoitteita vastaavat kohteet. Tutkimus toteutettiin kolmessa osiossa, joista ensimmäisessä selvitettiin MCDA:n perusteet määrittämällä kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla päätöksentekijän preferenssejä mallintava MAVT-prosessi. Kirjallisuuskatsauksen jälkeen seurasi työn empiirinen osio, mikä pyrki haastatteluiden avulla selvittämään kiinteistöportfoliohallinnan päätöksentekoa ohjaavat kriteerit ja niiden toteutumista mittaavat attribuutit. Työ keskittyi käsittelemään vain kiinteistökohtaisten sisäsyntyisten tekijöiden vaikutusta kiinteistöportfoliohallintaan. Lopuksi empiriasta saatujen tuloksien pohjalta kuvattiin MAVT prosessi kyseessä olevassa kontekstissa ja kehitettiin esimerkkimalli kiinteistöportfoliohallinnan päätöksenteon tueksi. Esitetty malli on suunnattu yksityisille kiinteistönomistajille, jotka omistavat liike- ja toimistokiinteistöjä vain sijoitusmielessä. Tutkimuksen tuloksena saatiin viisi kiinteistöportfoliohallinnan päätöksentekoa ohjaavaa kriteeriä: makrosijainti, mikrosijainti, sopimushinta, kiinteistön korjaustarpeet ja kiinteistön kehittymiskyky. Sijainti kriteerit pyrkivät huomioimaan sekä makroympäristön kehittymisen että kiinteistön saavutettavuuden. Sopimushinta ja kiinteistön korjaustarpeet puolestaan kuvaavat kiinteistön kassavirran negatiivisen ja positiivisen puolen tärkeimpiä tekijöitä. Kiinteistön kehittymiskyvyllä tarkoitetaan kuinka paljon kehitystoimenpiteillä nähdään saatavan taloudellista hyötyä. Edelle mainittujen kriteereiden attribuuteiksi ehdotettiin makrosijainnille alueellisen BKT:n suhdetta uusiin rakennushankkeisiin, mikrosijainnille keskimääräistä matka-aikaa ja kulkuvälinevaihtoehtoja aluekeskukseen, sopimushinnalle kohteen sopimushintojen neliöillä painotettua keskiarvoa, korjaustarpeille pitkän tähtäimen suunnitelmasta saatavaa korjaustarvearviota ja kiinteistön kehittymiskyvylle asiantuntijan toteuttamaa arviota kiinteistön kehityskelpoisuudesta. Tutkimus ei ottanut kantaa kriteereiden painotukseen tai attribuuttien mittaustulosten pisteyttämiseen, koska työ haluttiin pitää yleisellä tasolla ja edellä mainitut toimenpiteet olisivat vaatineet työn rajaamista koskemaan vain yhtä kiinteistösijoittajaa. Kokonaisuudessaan nähtiin, että yleisen mallin kehittäminen kiinteistöportfoliohallintaan on mahdotonta, johtuen mallissa käytettävien painotusten ja arvofunktioiden yksilöllisestä luonteesta. Tästä johtuen preferenssimallin laadinta olisikin parempi toteuttaa käyttäen vain yhtä kiinteistönomistajaa. Tässä työssä kuvattu prosessi antaa kuitenkin työn kohteena olleille kiinteistönomistajille valmiudet luoda kvantitatiivinen malli oman päätöksenteon tueksi. Prosessin tuloksena saatava malli ehdottaa perustuen kiinteistön sisäsyntyisiin tekijöihin, miten kiinteistöt tulisi lajitella eri salkkuihin. Malli on kuitenkin tarkoitettu vain päätöksentekijän avuksi, ei päätöksentekijäksi

Includes abstract.
Includes bibliographical references.
When facilitating decisions in which some performance evaluations are uncertain, a decision must be taken about how this uncertainty is to be modelled. This involves, in part, choosing an uncertainty format {a way of representing the possible outcomes that may occur. It seems reasonable to suggest {and is an aim of the thesis to show {that the choice of how uncertain quantities are represented will exert some influence over the decision-making process and the final decision taken. Many models exist for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) under conditions of uncertainty; perhaps the most well-known are those based on multi-attribute utility theory [MAUT, e.g. 147], which uses probability distributions to represent uncertainty. The great strength of MAUT is its axiomatic foundation, but even in its simplest form its practical implementation is formidable, and although there are several practical applications of MAUT reported in the literature [e.g. 39, 270] the number is small relative to its theoretical standing. Practical applications often use simpler decision models to aid decision making under uncertainty, based on uncertainty formats that `simplify' the full probability distributions (e.g. using expected values, variances, quantiles, etc). The aim of this thesis is to identify decision models associated with these `simplified' uncertainty formats and to evaluate the potential usefulness of these models as decision aids for problems involving uncertainty. It is hoped that doing so provides some guidance to practitioners about the types of models that may be used for uncertain decision making. The performance of simplified models is evaluated using three distinct methodological approaches {computer simulation, `laboratory' choice experiments, and real-world applications of decision analysis {in the hope of providing an integrated assessment. Chapter 3 generates a number of hypothetical decision problems by simulation, and within each problem simulates the hypothetical application of MAUT and various simplified decision models. The findings allow one to assess how the simplification of MAUT models might impact results, but do not provide any general conclusions because they are based on hypothetical decision problems and cannot evaluate practical issues like ease-of-use or the ability to generate insight that are critical to good decision aid. Chapter 4 addresses some of these limitations by reporting an experimental study consisting of choice tasks presented to numerate but unfacilitated participants. Tasks involved subjects selecting one from a set of five alternatives with uncertain attribute evaluations, with the format used to represent uncertainty and the number of objectives for the choice varied as part of the experimental design. The study is limited by the focus on descriptive rather than real prescriptive decision making, but has implications for prescriptive decision making practice in that natural tendencies are identified which may need to be overcome in the course of a prescriptive analysis.

The Subsea blowout preventer (BOP) which is latched to a subsea wellhead is one of several barriers in the well to prevent kicks and blowouts and it is the most important and critical equipment, as it becomes the last line of protection against blowout. The BOP system used in Subsea drilling operations is considered a Safety – Critical System, with a high severity consequence following its failure. Following past offshore blowout incidents such as the most recent Macondo in the Gulf of Mexico, there have been investigations, research, and improvements sought for improved understanding of the BOP system and its operation. This informs the need for a systematic re-evaluation of the Subsea BOP system to understand its associated risk and reliability and identify critical areas/aspects/components. Different risk analysis techniques were surveyed and the Failure modes effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) selected to be used to drive the study in this thesis. This is due to it being a simple proven cost effective process that can add value to the understanding of the behaviours and properties of a system, component, software, function or other. The output of the FMECA can be used to inform or support other key engineering tasks such as redesigning, enhanced qualification and testing activity or maintenance for greater inherent reliability and reduced risk potential. This thesis underscores the application of the FMECA technique to critique associated risk of the Subsea BOP system. System Functional diagrams was developed with boundaries defined, a FMECA were carried out and an initial select list of critical component failure modes identified. The limitations surrounding the confidence of the FMECA failure modes ranking outcome based on Risk priority number (RPN) is presented and potential variations in risk interpretation are discussed. The main contribution in this thesis is an innovative framework utilising Multicriteria decision making (MCDA) analysis techniques with consideration of fuzzy interval data is applied to the Subsea BOP system critical failure modes from the FMECA analysis. It utilised nine criticality assessment criteria deduced from expert consultation to obtain a more reliable ranking of failure modes. The MCDA techniques applied includes the technique for order of Preference for similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Fuzzy TOPSIS, TOPSIS with interval data, and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment of Evaluations (PROMETHEE). The outcome of the Multi-criteria analysis of the BOP system clearly shows failures of the Wellhead connector, LMRP hydraulic connector and Control system related failure as the Top 3 most critical failure with respect to a well control. The critical failure mode and components outcome from the analysis in this thesis is validated using failure data from industry database and a sensitivity analysis carried out. The importance of maintenance, testing and redundancy to the BOP system criticality was established by the sensitivity analysis. The potential for MCDA to be used for more specific analysis of criteria for a technology was demonstrated. Improper maintenance, inspection, testing (functional and pressure) are critical to the BOP system performance and sustenance of a high reliability level. Material selection and performance of components (seals, flanges, packers, bolts, mechanical body housings) relative to use environment and operational conditions is fundamental to avoiding failure mechanisms occurrence. Also worthy of notice is the contribution of personnel and organisations (by way of procedures to robustness and verification structure to ensure standard expected practices/rules are followed) to failures as seen in the root cause discussion. OEMs, operators and drilling contractors to periodically review operation scenarios relative to BOP system product design through the use of a Failure reporting analysis and corrective action system. This can improve design of monitoring systems, informs requirement for re-qualification of technology and/or next generation designs. Operations personnel are to correctly log in failures in these systems, and responsible Authority to ensure root cause analysis is done to uncover underlying issue initiating and driving failures.

In the energy field, the decisions need to take into consideration several factors such as the needs of the population, the environment, suitability, capital cost, sustainability, political goals and the actors involved, with their interests and preferences. The lack of homogeneity in all the factors that must be consider makes it necessary to design a process that guides the analysis process of any type of decision-maker. Decision analysis methods have been developed to aid decision-makers identify a problem, determine the criteria to be consider and their importance, recognize the stakeholders that need to be involved and pose the different alternatives to resolve or to best address the problem. These techniques range from simple to more mathematically oriented ones, from single criterion evaluation to multiple criteria, and from purely qualitative or quantitative to mixed techniques. Within the field of decision analysis, multi-criteria techniques are better suited to aid in decision situations in the energy field as these decisions require several considerations beside economic ones. This thesis uses theories and notions of decision analysis to construct a framework to be used in any energy related decision situations by non-experts. The framework tackles common challenges faced by multi-criteria decision analysis methods, including the identification of stakeholders and decision-makers, the aggregation of various decision-makers, preferences and heterogeneous inputs, and the selection of suitable criteria, alternatives and methods.

In this paper multi-actor multi-criteria decision aid methodology are developed to examine the impacts of EU policies related to first generation biofuels on identified key stakeholders. The thesis focuses on the integration of relevant qualitative and quantitative criteria defined by key stakeholders into one comprehensive evaluation process, to serve as a decision support tool for decision makers. Weight allocation of the defined criteria will be assessed by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework, where the multi-criteria decision-aid method PROMETHEE II is used to rank relevant policy alternatives based on the information provided. In the end, results will help the decision makers to identify the impacts of different EU policy alternatives on each stakeholder group.

With an upsurge in number of available smart phones, tablet PCs etc. most users find it easy to access Internet services using mobile applications. It has been a challenging task for mobile application developers to choose suitable security types (types of authentication, authorization, security protocols, cryptographic algorithms etc.) for mobile applications. Choosing an inappropriate security type for a mobile application may lead to performance degradation and vulnerable issues in applications. The choice of the security type can be done by decision making. Decision making is a challenging task for humans. When choosing a single alternative among a set of alternatives with multiple criteria, it is hard to know which one is the better decision. Mobile application developers need to incorporate Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Models to choose a suitable security type for mobile application. A decision model for application security enhances decision making for mobile application developers to decide and set the required security types for the application. In this thesis, we discuss different types of MCDM models that have been applied in an IT security area and scope of applying MCDM models in application security area. Literature review and evaluation of the selected decision models gives a detailed overview on how to use them to provide application security.
The first chapter introduces the thesis work. The second chapter presents the background of decision making models, their process, and the classification of decision making models. The third chapter presents the research methodology we have used in different phases which aims to answer the research questions. The fourth chapter gives a detailed literature study of how decision models can be used in application security. The fifth chapter evaluates selected decision models. The sixth chapter concludes the thesis and presents future work.

The successful energy design of buildings requires that special attention be paid to the conceptual stage. However, it is a difficult task to find the most promising design alternatives satisfying several conflicting criteria. This thesis presents a simple multi-criteria decisions analysis method that could assist designers in green building design. Variables in the model include those alternatives that are common options when a residential building is to be constructed. The individual components that are considered are the building envelope, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system, service water heating, power and lighting. The key actors, objectives and methodology of multi-criteria decisions analysis are presented and finally a case study for a residential building in Athens is performed. The criteria by which to evaluate each building component of the newly built construction were identified by the decision-makers. Subsequently, decision frameworks for the selection of roof, walls, windows, heating system, energy source for heating system, power source, lighting and service water heating system were built. The method is followed step-by-step to conclude on the optimal building components based on their score. Due to the equal scoring of the windows and an inapplicable combination of electric underfloor heating with air-to-water heat pump, the method is characterized by low accuracy. The fact that the building components have been treated individually sets the method as a basic one and indicates that a more complex one should be preferred when more trustworthy results are needed.

In several types of embedded systems the applications are deployed both as software and as hardware components. For such systems, the partitioning decision is highly important since the implementation in software or hardware heavily influences the system properties. In the industry, it is rather common practice to take deployment decisions in an early stage of the design phase and based on a limited number of aspects. Often such decisions are taken based on hardware and software designers‟ expertise and do not account the requirements of the entire system and the project and business development constraints. This approach leads to several disadvantages such as redesign, interruption, etc. In this scenario, we see the need of approaching the partitioning process from a multiple decision perspective. As a consequence, we start by presenting an analysis of the most important and popular Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods and tools. We also identify the key requirements on the partitioning process. Subsequently, we evaluate all of the MCDA methods and tools with respect to the key partitioning requirements. By using the key partitioning requirements the methods and tools that the best suits the partitioning are selected. Finally, we propose two MCDA-based partitioning processes and validate their feasibility thorough an industrial case study.

Due to the rapid growth of the wind energy market over the last decade, the future of the industry will consequently see the dismantling of many wind turbines, both due to wind turbines reaching the end of their service life and to make way for surpassing technology, leaving behind a large amount of material that must be dealt with. Furthermore, due to the advancing technology of wind turbines, there has been a decline in the number of medium sized wind turbines being manufactured. This study aims to address the problem of future waste mitigation, whilst attempting to capture the medium scale market. As such, the study has looked at the idea of transitioning towards a circular economy, in which wind turbines are not considered as waste at the end of their service life, but rather an opportunity to recapture value through remanufacturing. This was approached by identifying the driver and barriers of remanufactured products, utilising knowledge from other industries with developed remanufacturing sectors. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been performed using the PROMETHEE II method with the objective of drawing a comparison of three scenarios, enveloped by a theoretical wind turbine selection project. The scenarios were created by the author and considered the implementation of a new wind turbine and remanufactured wind turbines. Upon examining the results of the multi criteria decision analysis, it was seen that the benefits of implementing remanufactured turbines were preferred by the majority of the stakeholders involved.

Sustainability is a fairly new emerging business concept for manufacturing industry and this thesis will focus on smartphone manufacturing industry. In 2015 there were 1.86 billion smartphone users and it is estimated to increase to 2.87 billion in 2020. Currently the average lifetime of a smartphone is 21 months and According to Consumer Technology Association the technical life expectancy of a smartphone is 4.7 years. The European Commission approximated that from 17–20 kg of electronic waste is produced per person per year and that smartphones are contributors for increase of electronic waste. Also the smartphone manufacturing process has an impact on the people who are involved with manufacturing and resource extraction process.  Related social problems include conflict minerals, issues in manufacturing campuses, health problems and excessive worktimes. There has been suspicion that large manufacturing companies use labour market in areas that have a high risk of poverty or lack of national authority that can protect labour rights. To investigate these emerging issues that has an impact on smartphone manufacturing sustainability, a sustainability ranking criteria for individual smartphones devices and their manufactures was developed. Furthermore, the aim of the research is to develop a ranking system using life cycle perspective and to evaluate sustainability of a smartphones upcycling, recycling, and social aspects. This aim will be accomplished by the following objectives: Develop evaluation system for smartphones using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to evaluate sustainability; Comparing sustainability of smartphones Fairphone 2, iPhone 7, Samsung Galaxy S7 and LG G5, using developed Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA); Conducting general sustainability- focused survey about consumer demand for sustainable and ethical electronics. The method used in this research to assess smartphone sustainability was Multi-Criteria Analysis(MCA), based on eco-design trends and three pillars of sustainability, – economic, environmental and social. Eco-design will be supported using EcoDesing Roadmap by Conrad Luttropp and Göran Brohammer. In parallel with MCA method a survey was developed to briefly assess consumer’s behaviour in terms of choosing sustainable electronics. For better understanding about the consumer value on purchase decision, a survey was made considering the technical and sustainable aspects. The results of this survey will be used as indicator. Furthermore, results from this research (Table 1 MCA evaluation results) revealed that majority of chosen smartphones where lacking sustainable products aspects. This MCA ranking system also confirm that for sustainable designed smartphone it is equally important to have well established environmental management system for overall manufacturing process and afterlife of smartphone. Continuing, after conducting deeper analysis with combined results from MCA, survey revealed that general public are willing to pay more for sustainable products, but consumers lack information about the overall manufacturers` sustainability, as well Indicating that communication between manufacturers and consumers are very weak or even one way. The conclusion of the study about Smartphone sustainability assessment using multi-criteria analysis and the consumer survey has provided better understanding about the lack of transparency and complex logistics manufacturing process of smartphone. The lack of qualitative data and transparency from the manufactures side is a major issue that creates lot of uncertainties about smartphone manufacturing process and social issues for workforce that is involved in this manufacturing process.

Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the availability of energy resources and the competition between different energy carriers in satisfying energy demand. During the last 10-20 years significant changes have taken place on the world energy scene, which have important implications for energy planning. Two main factors have triggered these changes. The first factor is the immediate need to address environmental changes or more generally, to take measures that are sustainable in the long run. Sustainability can be defined in many ways and in relation to different issues such as economic and ecologic development, reduction of greenhouse gases, responsible use of natural resources, social equity, etc. In recent years, an increased awareness of these issues has been observed at all levels of the society. The second factor is the deregulation of national energy sectors in more than 50 countries. This process brought changes in the ownership of different parts of the formerly integrated energy systems. New business opportunities were created in power generation, wholesale power/gas trading and energy retailing, while the energy infrastructures remained state owned or/and under regulatory control. The newly created energy markets (many of them international) have attracted both new players (power, oil and gas companies and financial institutions) together with the old ones (integrated utilities). In parallel with this vertical separation of national energy sectors, recent studies have shown a tendency for horizontal integration at the regional/company level. For instance, in order to reduce their overall business risk, companies prefer to participate in several segments of the energy value chain (in both regulated and non-regulated activities), and often across more than one fuel commodity, such as gas and electricity or district heating. In this context, the competition between different energy carriers in satisfying the end-use energy demand became obvious in economic as well as in technological and environmental terms. Traditionally, in integrated planning, this competition did not play a big role, since the same state entity made decisions at both national and regional levels. However, in the post-deregulation era it is no longer obvious who the planner is. In many cases, planning decision at local levels involve at least three main interest groups: energy companies (and/or other investors), the state and the local community. This thesis is motivated by the need to help planners to cope with the changes in concepts and values concerning the planning of local energy supply systems. This thesis has two aims. The first aim is to improve the understanding of what planning of local systems implies and how such a process can be structured. The second aim is to contribute to the development of decision support methodologies and tools that can cope with the needs in planning. For this purpose, the use of energy modelling and Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis has been studied.

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier des propriétés des points d'équilibre dans des réseaux de transport multi-critères et de développer des méthodes numériques permettant de trouver l'ensemble des points d'équilibre ou une partie représentative de cet ensemble. Le travail est structure comme suit. Dans le premier chapitre nous donnons une introduction de la thèse. Le chapitre 2 est un rappel de certaines notions que nous utilisons dans les autres. Nous y rappelons le concept de point optimal de Pareto, les fonctions multivoques et les problèmes d'inégalité variationnelle. Nous introduisons certaines fonctions de scalarisation et puis établissons quelques propriétés importantes. Dans le chapitre 3, nous décrivons les réseaux de transport qui sont étudiés dans cette thèse. Dans chaque modèle, nous rappelons les définitions des points d'équilibre et donnons une relation entre ces définitions. Dans le chapitre 4 nous traitons les réseaux de transport multi-critères mono-produit sans contraintes de capacité. Tout d'abord, nous construisons deux problèmes d'optimisation dont les solutions sont exactement l'ensemble des points d'équilibre du modèle initiale et établissons certaines propriétés importantes de continuité et de dérivabilité génériques des fonctions objectifs. Puis nous donnons une formule permettant de calculer le gradient des fonctions objectifs. Nous proposons également un algorithme et prouvons sa convergence pour générer une représentation de l'ensemble des points d'équilibre. Puisque les fonctions objectifs de nos problèmes d'optimisation ne sont pas continues, une méthode de lissage est également considérée afin d'utiliser quelques techniques d'optimisation globale. En fin, nous introduisons le concept de point d'équilibre robuste, puis nous établissons des critères de robustesse et une formule permettant de calculer le rayon de robustesse. Dans le chapitre 5 nous étudions des points d'équilibre vectoriel dans le réseau de transport multi-critères mono-produit sous contraintes de capacité.Tout d'abord, nous proposons un problème d'optimisation équivalent. En utilisant des techniques analogues à celles du chapitre 4 nous obtenons également un sous-ensemble des points d'équilibre du modèle proposé. Dans le dernier chapitre nous considérons des points d'équilibre fort dans le réseau de transport multi-critères multi-produit sous contraintes de capacité. Nous établissons des conditions d'existence des points d'équilibre fort, des relations entre des points d'équilibre fort et des points d'équilibre par rapport à une famille de fonctions ainsi qu'une relation entre des points d'équilibre fort et les points efficaces de l'ensemble des valeurs de la fonction de coût. En plus nous construisons des problèmes d'inéqualité variationnellle, dont les solutions sont les points d'équilibre fort. La dernière partie de ce chapitre est consacrée à un algorithme permettant de trouver des points d'équilibre d'un réseau multi-critères sous contraintes de capacité. Certains exemples numériques sont donnés pour illustrer notre méthode. Nous fermons la thèse avec une liste de références et appendice contenant le code matlab de nos algorithmes
The purpose of this thesis is to study equilibria in multi-criteria trafficnetworks and develop numerical methods to find the set of all equilibria oronly one representative part of this set. The thesis is structured as follows.In the first chapter we present an introduction of the thesis. Chapter 2is of preliminary character. We recall the concept of Pareto minimal pointsand some notions related to set-valued maps and variational inequality pro-blem. We introduce some scalarizing functions, in particular the so-calledaugmented biggest/smallest monotone functions and augmented signed distance functions, and establish some properties we shall use later.Chapter 3 describes the traffic network models to be studied in this thesis.We define equilibrium for each model and determine a relationship betweenthem. We also give some counter examples for some existing results in therecent literature on this topic.In Chapter 4 we develop a new solution method for multi-criteria net-work equilibrium problems without capacity constraints. To this end we shallconstruct two optimization problems the solutions of which are exactly theset of equilibria of the model, and establish some important generic conti-nuity and differentiability properties of the objective functions. Then we givethe formula to calculate the gradient of the objective functions which enablesus to modify Frank-Wolfe's reduced gradient method to get descent directiontoward an optimal solution. We prove the convergence of the method whichgenerates a nice representative set of equilibria. Since the objective functionsof our optimization problems are not continuous, a method of smoothingthem is also considered in order to see how global optimization algorithmsmay help.We shall also introduce the concept of robust equilibrium, establishcriteria for robustness and a formula to compute the radius of robustness.In Chapter 5 we consider vector equilibrium in the multi-criteria single-product traffic network with capacity constraints.We propose an equivalent optimization problem and establish some im-portant generic continuity and differentiability properties of the objectivefunction. Then we give a formula which allows us to calculate the gradientof the objective function. After that we apply the approach of Chapter 4 toobtain an algorithm for generating equilibria of this network. We also givesome numerical examples to illustrate our approach.In the last chapter we consider strong vector equilibrium in the multi-criteria multi-product traffic network with capacity constraints.We establish conditions for existence of strong vector equilibrium.We alsoestablish relations between equilibrium and efficient points of the value set ofthe cost function and with equilibrium with respect to a family of functions.Moreover we exploit particular increasing functions discussed in Chapter 2 toconstruct variational inequality problems, solutions of which are equilibriumflows. The final part of this chapter is devoted to an algorithm for findingequilibrium flows of a multi-criteria network with capacity constraints. Somenumerical examples are given to illustrate our method and its applicability.A list of references and appendices containing the code Matlab of ouralgorithms follow

ABSTRACT A DEA-BASED APPROACH TO RANKING MULTI-CRITERIA ALTERNATIVES Tuncer, Ceren M.Sc., Department of Industrial Engineering Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Murat Kö
ksalan August 2006, 88 pages This thesis addresses the problem of ranking multi-criteria alternatives. A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-based approach, the Method of the Area of the Efficiency Score Graph (AES) is proposed. Rather than assessing the alternatives with respect to the fixed original alternative set as done in the existing DEA-based ranking methods, AES considers the change in the efficiency scores of the alternatives while reducing the size of the alternative set. Producing a final score for each alternative that accounts for the progress of its efficiency score, AES favors alternatives that manage to improve quickly and maintain high levels of efficiency. The preferences of the Decision Maker (DM) are incorporated into the analysis in the form of weight restrictions. The utilization of the AES scores of the alternatives in an incremental clustering algorithm is also proposed. The AES Method is applied to rank MBA programs worldwide, sorting of the programs is also performed using their AES scores. Results are compared to another DEA-based ranking method. Keywords: Ranking, data envelopment analysis, weight restrictions.

This research provides a comprehensive set of methods for the capacity assessment of multi-modal transportation systems, which are easy to apply and can significantly reduce the time to perform a capacity analysis. This thesis developed multi-objective mathematical models that can evaluate the effect of parametric and structural changes and can assist planners to update and reconfigure multi-modal transportation systems considering the trade-off in different aspects of cost, time and functionality. The methods proposed in this thesis can help planners and decision-makers to identify the performance and capability of multiple modes of an integrated transportation system.

This article seeks to enhance multi criteria decision making by providing a scientic approach for decomposing and structuring decision problems. We propose a process, based on concept mapping, which integrates group creativity techniques, card sorting procedures, quantitative data analysis and algorithmic automatization to construct meaningful and complete hierarchies of criteria. The algorithmic aspect is covered by a newly proposed recursive cluster algorithm, which automatically generates hierarchies from card sorting data. Based on comparison with another basic algorithm and empirical engineered and real-case test data, we validate that our process efficiently produces reasonable hierarchies of descriptive elements like goal- or problem-criteria. (authors' abstract)

This thesis deals with control of stock in an inventory, focusing on inventory placement. The purpose of this thesis is to reduce the transport distance within the main stock house while gathering inventory. This will be achieved by reconstructing the inventory placement in consideration with how frequently the inventories get picked and mass of the inventory. In particular, the literature and the data that is collected from the company´s business system have laid the foundation for the thesis. In general, interviews and observations also contributed to the data collection. To fulfill the aim and to produce arbitrary results, two issues have been developed regarding which attributes that should determine the position of the inventory in the stock house and how to obtain a more effective inventory structure? The authors have jointly produced a result of suggestions for future inventory placement in terms of picking frequency and weight. Initially a situation analysis was conducted to identify known problems with the inventory´s placement and storage systems. The problems that were identified were that the inventory placement has no consideration regarding picking frequency. To determine the most frequent picked inventory an ABC analysis was conducted. All of the inventories were spread out throughout the whole stock house. To take in account, the additional criterion, which was weight, a multi-criteria analysis was performed in combination with the ABC analysis. The results of the combined analysis provided that the basis for drawing up concepts for future inventory placement. The proposal includes optimized inventory placements in different zones of the most frequently picked inventory with weight as an additional criterion.
Arbetet behandlar området lagerstyrning med inriktning på optimering av artikelplacering. Syftet med arbetet är att minska transportsträckor inom centrallagret, detta genom en omstrukturerad artikelplacering med hänsyn till plockfrekvens och tyngd. I synnerhet har litteratur samt insamlad data från företagets affärssystem lagt grunden för arbetet. I allmänhet har intervjuer och observationer också bidragit till datainsamling. För att uppfylla arbetets syfte och ta fram ett godtyckligt resultat har två frågeställningar tagits fram angående vilka attribut som bör avgöra en artikels position i lagret samt hur en effektivare lagerstruktur kan erhållas. Författarna har gemensamt arbetat fram ett resultat i form av ett förslag för framtida artikelplacering sett till plockfrekvens och tyngd. Inledningsvis genomfördes en nulägesanalys för att identifiera kända problem med artikelplacering och lagersystem. De problem som identifierades var att artikelplaceringen sker utan underlag för plockfrekvens. För att utröna de mest frekventa artiklarna genomfördes en ABC-analys. Samtliga artiklar lokaliserades utspridda över hela lagret. För att ta hänsyn till ytterligare ett kriterium, vilket var tyngd, genomfördes multikriterieanalys i kombination med ABC-analys. Resultatet av den kombinerade analysen gav underlag för att ta fram förslag för framtida artikelplacering. Förslaget innehåller optimerade artikelplaceringar inom olika zoner för de mest plockfrekventa artiklarna med tyngd som ytterligare kriterium.

Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia. Universidade de Lisboa
This work focuses on innovating forest ecosystem management planning and on enhancing its contribution to the provision of ecosystem services. A web-based forest decision support system was developed to support public and private forest managers, involving operational research methods. First, all work related to database management and the integration of data was carried out. Databases were created with PostgreSQL, which on the one hand facilitated the development of multi-criteria linear programs, and on the other met all the data and information needs of a forest decision support system, not only for data processing and information presentation, but also as a source to be consulted and analyzed by forest decision makers. The wSADfLOR, a forest web-based decision support system, integrates one analytic tool to visualize interactive decision maps showing the decision space and trade-offs among the criteria in Pareto frontiers, according to forest users’ management options. Taking advantage of constant improvements in the Interactive Decision Maps tool in wSADfLOR, a second article was developed regarding a web-based approach to show interactive decision maps with Pareto frontiers. Based on these interactive decision maps and jointly with some decision support systems available in the EMDS platform (Criterion DecisionPlus and NetWeaver), a hybrid decision methodology for cases in which there is no consensus among the solutions chosen by different (groups of) forest decision makers was developed, enabling them to choose a unique strategic decision plan
N/A

In the present study a methodology and a spreadsheet model were developed with the aim of integrating techno-economic and environmental objectives simultaneously during decision making. The model was developed specifically for the copper industry, mainly due to the wide array of different processing technologies and operational synergies that exist in this industry.

This thesis investigated the optimal land suitability for irrigated crop production of barley and wheat in Benghazi region of Libya using multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of fuzzy logic and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). In the MCA, fourteen land suitability factors including twelve soil characteristics, topography and erosion hazard were evaluated. Local experts used their experience and assigned different weights based on crop requirements through pairwise comparison matrix. The combination of these methods was aimed at developing existing land evaluation model in the study area that was based on Boolean logic. Three models were developed based on Food and Agriculture Organization Framework: Model 1 was based on existing land evaluation model of Boolean and equal weights; Model 2 was based on Boolean but with difference in weights assigned using AHP; and Model 3 was based on Fuzzy and AHP. The results of these models were compared using crosstab classification (Kappa statistic and overall agreement). On comparison, Model 2 and Model 3 demonstrated higher agreement in spatial distribution of land suitability class than Model 1 for both barley and wheat crops. However, Model 3 is more realistic than the other two models when tested by linear regression. This implies that the application of fuzzy logic and AHP in MCA produces areas that are most suitable for barley and wheat production than would other methods. In practice, however, land management practices by farmers may lead to different yield in the selected suitable area. This thesis makes original contributions in the field of identifying the most suitable land evaluation model for application to crop production improvements. Furthermore, the results of this research will be useful to the Libyan authorities in planning for the optimisation of available land-use for strategic production of barley and wheat crops. This is pertinent to issues of food security. The approaches are transferable to other regions of the world which face similar challenges in domestic food production.

Background and Motivation

Unlike what is common in Europe and the rest of the world, Norway has traditionally met most of its stationary energy demand (including heating) with electricity, because of abundant access to hydropower. However, after the deregulation of the Norwegian electricity market in the 1990s, the increase in the electricity generation capacity has been less than the load demand increase. This is due to the relatively low electricity prices during the period, together with the fact that Norway’s energy companies no longer have any obligations to meet the load growth. The country’s generation capacity is currently not sufficient to meet demand, and accordingly, Norway is now a net importer of electricity, even in normal hydrological years. The situation has led to an increased focus on alternative energy solutions.

It has been common that different energy infrastructures – such as electricity, district heating and natural gas networks – have been planned and commissioned by independent companies. However, such an organization of the planning means that synergistic effects of a combined energy system to a large extent are neglected. During the last decades, several traditional electricity companies have started to offer alternative energy carriers to their customers. This has led to a need for a more comprehensive and sophisticated energy-planning process, where the various energy infrastructures are planned in a coordinated way. The use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) appears to be suited for coordinated planning of energy systems with multiple energy carriers. MCDA is a generic term for different methods that help people make decisions according to their preferences in situations characterized by multiple conflicting criteria.

The thesis focuses on two important stages of a multi-criteria planning task:

- The initial structuring and modelling phase

- The decision-making phase

The Initial Structuring and Modelling Phase

It is important to spend sufficient time and resources on the problem definition and structuring, so that all disagreements among the decision-maker(s) (DM(s)) and the analyst regarding the nature of the problem and the desired goals are eliminated. After the problem has been properly identified, the next step of a multi-criteria energy-planning process is the building of an energy system model (impact model). The model is used to calculate the operational attributes necessary for the multi-criteria analysis; in other words, to determine the various alternatives’ performance values for some or all of the criteria being considered. It is important that the model accounts for both the physical characteristics of the energy system components and the complex relationships between the system parameters. However, it is not propitious to choose/build an energy system model with a greater level of detail than needed to achieve the aims of the planning project.

In my PhD research, I have chosen to use the eTransport model as the energy system model. This model is especially designed for planning of local and regional energy systems, where different energy carriers and technologies are considered simultaneously. However, eTransport can currently provide information only about costs and emissions directly connected to the energy system’s operation. Details about the investment plans’ performance on the remaining criteria must be found from other information sources. Guidelines should be identified regarding the extent to which different aspects should be accounted for, and on the ways these impacts can be assessed for each investment plan under consideration. However, it is important to realize that there is not one solution for how to do this that is valid for all kind of local energy-planning problems. It is therefore necessary for the DM(s) and the analyst to discuss these issues before entering the decision-making phase.

The Decision-Making Phase

Two case studies have been undertaken to examine to what extent the use of MCDA is suitable for local energy-planning purposes. In the two case studies, two of the most well-known MCDA methods, the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), have been tested. Other MCDA methods, such as GP or the outranking methods, could also have been applied. However, I chose to focus on value measurement methods as AHP and MAUT, and have not tested other methods. Accordingly, my research cannot determine if value measurement methods are better suited for energy-planning purposes than GP or outranking methods are.

Although all MCDA methods are constructed to help DMs explore their ‘true values’ – which theoretically should be the same regardless of the method used to elicit them – our experiments showed that different MCDA methods do not necessarily provide the same results. Some of the differences are caused by the two methods’ different ways of asking questions, as well as the DMs’ inability to express clearly their value judgements by using one or both the methods. In particular, the MAUT preference-elicitation procedure was difficult to understand and accept for DMs without previous experience with the utility concept. An additional explanation of the differences is that the external uncertainties included in the problem formulation are better accounted for in MAUT than in AHP. There are also a number of essential weaknesses in the theoretical foundation of the AHP method that may have influenced the results using that method. However, the AHP method seems to be preferred by DMs, because the method is straightforward and easier to use and understand than the relatively complex MAUT method.

It was found that the post-interview process is essential for a good decision outcome. For example, the results from the preference aggregation may indicate that according to the DM’s preferences, a modification of one of the alternatives might be propitious. In such cases, it is important to realize that MCDA is an iterative process. The post-interview process also includes presentation and discussion of results with the DMs. Our experiments showed that the DMs might discover inconsistencies in the results; that the results do not reflect the DM’s actual preferences for some reason; or that the results simply do not feel right. In these cases, it is again essential to return to an earlier phase of the MCDA process and conduct a new analysis where these problems or discrepancies are taken into account.

The results from an MAUT analysis are usually presented to the DMs in the form of expected total utilities given on a scale from zero to one. Expected utilities are convenient for ranking and evaluation of alternatives. However, they do not have any direct physical meaning, which quite obviously is a disadvantage from an application point of view. In order to improve the understanding of the differences between the alternatives, the Equivalent Attribute Technique (EAT) can be applied. EAT was tested in the first of the two case studies. In this case study, the cost criterion was considered important by the DMs, and the utility differences were therefore converted to equivalent cost differences. In the second case study, the preference elicitation interviews showed, quite surprisingly, that cost was not considered among the most important criteria by the DMs, and none of the other attributes were suitable to be used as the equivalent attribute. Therefore, in this case study, the use of EAT could not help the DMs interpreting the differences between the alternatives.

Summarizing

For MCDA to be really useful for actual local energy planning, it is necessary to find/design an MCDA method which: (1) is easy to use and has a transparent logic; (2) presents results in a way easily understandable for the DM; (3) is able to elicit and aggregate the DMs' real preferences; and (4) can handle external uncertainties in a consistent way.

The amount of information involved in many decision making situations has increased dramatically in recent years and support of some kind is often needed. Consequently, fields like Business Intelligence (BI) and Decision Support Systems (DSS) have advanced. Decision analysis applications belong to the latter category and aim to support decision making activities in businesses and organizations, and provide more clearly structured decision material to use as a basis for decisions. In spite of a belief in their potential, their employment is still limited in practice, which could partly be attributed to the fact that they are incomplete to support decision processes sufficiently in real settings. At present, e.g., the specification and execution of the elicitation of input data is often left to the discretion of the user. Yet, this involves quite a few problematic elements and is of importance for the quality of the process as a whole. This thesis focuses on more practically useful elicitation of information in decision analysis applications than what is offered today. A process model emphasizing the importance of structured elicitation of adequate input data throughout decision processes is also suggested. In order to further define the problematic aspects of elicitation, three empirical studies were conducted. The problems with eliciting precise decision data suggests that using imprecise values within elicitation is a more realistic and useful approach to strive for. Based on theory and the findings of the studies, a weight elicitation method for imprecise statements and noisy input was formalized into the Cardinal Rank Ordering of Criteria (CROC) method. This method is both compatible with an adapted prescriptive decision making model, focused on a more structured elicitation component, as well as algorithms for dealing with such data. The CROC method was employed and validated in two real-life cases, which is not so common within decision analysis research.
Mängden information i många beslutssituationer har ökat markant under senare år och det finns ofta behov av någon form av stöd. Följaktligen har områden som Business Intelligence (BI) och Beslutsstödssystem (BSS) avancerat. Beslutsanalysverktyg tillhör den senare kategorin och syftar till att fungera som stöd vid beslutsfattande inom företag och organisationer och tillhandahålla mer strukturerat underlag för beslut. Trots en tro på deras potential, så är deras användande begränsat i praktiken, vilket delvis kan tillskrivas det faktum att de är inkompletta för att stödja beslutsprocesser i tillräcklig utsträckning i verkligheten. För närvarande förutsätts, t.ex. ofta att användaren själv klarar av att specificera och utföra utvinningen (eliciteringen) av input data. Detta involverar dock ett antal problematiska delar och dess kvalité är av vikt för hela processen. Denna avhandling fokuserar på mer praktiskt användbar elicitering av information i beslutsanalys-applikationer än vad som finns att tillgå idag. En processmodell som betonar vikten av strukturerad elicitering av adekvata indata genom hela beslutsprocessen föreslås också. För att ytterligare definiera de problematiska aspekterna av elicitering utfördes tre empiriska studier. Problemen med att utvinna precisa beslutsdata antyder att användandet av oprecisa värden inom elicitering är en mer realistisk och användbar ansats att sträva efter. Baserat på teori och resultaten av studierna formaliserades en vikteliciterings-metod för oprecisa utlåtanden och osäkra indata i Cardinal Rank Ordering of Criteria (CROC) metoden. Metoden är både kompatibel med en anpassad preskriptiv beslutsmodell fokuserad på en mer strukturerad eliciteringskomponent samt algoritmer för att hantera denna typ av data. CROC-metoden användes och validerades i två riktiga fall, vilket inte är så vanligt inom beslutsanalys forskning.

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Accepted. Paper 7: Submitted. 

The overall objective of this thesis is to assess the financial, technical and social feasibility of investing in modern Automated People Movers (APM) transportation systems, generally known as monorails, in METU campus which presents a unique opportunity to fulfill the modern-day transportation needs of METU campus. This study complements the Presidency Office&rsquo
s long term goal to integrate environmental, social and economic sustainability into the policies, practices and culture of the university and ultimately reduce the consumption of all resources on campus and traffic congestion and accidents. In this context, the consequent cost-benefit effects of the proposed monorail system on campus life were quantified in monetary expressions and the corresponding multi-criteria feasibility assessment including: Break-even Analysis, Cost Effectiveness Assessments and Cost Benefit Analysis have been done successfully. According to these analyses the overall capital cost of system is $46.5 million which covers the 24 months project construction period, and an additional annual operating and maintenance cost of $2 million will span the 30 year project life time. Three different scenarios were proposed for financing the project and relevant break-even points were determined for each of the scenarios. Eventually, it appears that based on the evaluations, constructing such a transit system in METU campus will be cost effective and will certainly enhance the transportation, and will contribute to the institutional improvements and environmental preservation schemes of METU campus.

There are several current challenges to the competitiveness of the Norwegian maritime sector. The short sea shipping industry is facing tougher requirements on the environmental performance of vessel technologies, mainly from the quality and type of fuels utilized. Other challenges are high production costs and increasing global competition. For Norwegian ship owners, an additional challenge is the increase in road cargo transportation. A technology shift in the maritime sector may be necessary to meet these challenges. In this thesis, we argue that in order to make this shift happen, better decision support tools (DST) must be implemented.In this thesis, a Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model has been made for the Norwegian maritime sector. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been applied to a case study at a Norwegian ship owner, based on a vessel investment at Egil Ulvan Rederi AS. In this study, marine diesel oil (MDO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been identified as alternatives. To obtain the most preferred alternative, the ship owner’s preferences for the following criteria were identified; air emissions, cost, technical performance and risk. The results shows that LNG was the most preferred alternative. This thesis proposes a systematic approach combining MCDA and Systems Engineering (SE). The results indicate the importance of including environment as a parameter in maritime decision-making, and may be especially important in areas subject to strict regulations on ship exhausts. It also indicates that MCDA, and AHP, can be used to aid decision makers in structuring their priorities in a decision-making context.

The current decision-making processes involved in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) in South Africa suffer from a lack of coherence and do not include evaluation of trade-offs between qualitative and quantitative impacts, as well as environmental, economic, and social dimensions. In addition, insufficient capacity and knowledge among authorities, a lack of objectivity among Environmental Assessment Practitioners (EAPs), and mediocre reports add to the problems associated with effective decision-making. This work presents a framework aimed at improving the effectiveness and objectivity of the decision-making process applied in South Africa’s EIAs in the energy sector. A number of decision-making models and tools are available to researchers and practitioners throughout the world that could potentially be applied in EIAs. Among these are Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM), and Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). Each of the tools has its own advantages and disadvantages. With respect to the CBA, its biggest disadvantage is the fact that it requires conversion into monetary terms of all impacts, which is sometimes difficult to achieve. The RIAM, on the other hand, fails to provide a systematic approach to the ranking of alternatives. Both of these issues are addressed by the MCA tools. The MCA framework, furthermore, is universal, transparent, easy to replicate, and does not require a particularly large amount of labour and financial resources to complete. It is, however, subjective, but this shortcoming can be overcome by making the decision process more transparent. The framework proposed in this research paper is based on the Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) technique that allows the identification of the proposed development's cumulative impact versus the current status of the environment. It then compares possible alternatives, where available, in order to identify the most optimal solution. The proposed solution takes into account the trade-offs between the different impact metrics. The research methodology followed in this paper comprised four steps, namely:

• Selection of case studies,
• Information collection,
• Framework application and testing and
• Feedback.

The development of the framework followed an eight-step approach that is generic for MCA and was tested on two case studies that have already gone through the Environmental Impact Assessment process, i.e. the Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) plant in the Western Cape and the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plant in the Northern Cape. The former was evaluated against the "no-go option", but included a decision tree comprised of impact areas, categories of impacts and dimensions (environmental, social, and economic). The latter included alternatives for four components of the project, but the decision tree comprised only of categories and dimensions. The effectiveness of the framework was verified by testing the results of the case studies against the recommendations proposed in the respective Environmental Impact Reports. In all cases, but one, the results of the framework correlated with the recommendations made by the Environmental Assessment Practitioners in the respective studies. In addition, a workshop with the decision-makers was held to obtain their viewpoints regarding the usefulness of the framework in their decision-making environment. These decision-makers supported the use of the framework in their environment as it offered an integrated and transparent approach to the evaluation of projects and alternatives. They emphasised, however, that the decision-making process was complex and the application of the framework alone would not be able to address all the challenges. The case studies demonstrated that the proposed framework could be successfully applied in the process of undertaking impact assessments in the energy sector. It can be used to determine the trade-offs between impacts and dimensions, while taking into consideration the opinions of specialists and decision-makers when assigning weights. The framework has the ability to clearly illustrate the benefit of introducing mitigation measures and it also indicates an alternative that produces the optimal cumulative impact. In conclusion, the work presented contributes to the new body of knowledge in the field of Environmental Impact Assessment in the energy sector as it will assist authorities in making objective and informed decisions, while ensuring greater transparency in the process. It also opens opportunities for conducting follow-on investigations, such the application of the framework in other sectors of the economy, undertaking a sensitivity analysis to compare the range of scores used in the evaluation of impacts, and investigating the possibility of acquiring input from Interested and Affected Parties (I&APs) and integrating those into the framework.
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2011.
Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM)
unrestricted

Traffic signal systems serve as one of the most powerful control tools in improving the efficiency of surface transportation travel. Traffic operations on arterial roads are particularly complex because of traffic interruptions caused by signalized intersections along the corridor. This dissertation research presents a systematic framework of integrated traffic control in an attempt to break down the complexities into several simpler sub-problems such as pattern recognition, environment-mobility relationships and multi-objective optimization for multi-criterial signal timing design. The overall goal of this dissertation is to develop signal timing plans, including a day plan schedule, cycle length parameters, splits and offsets, which are suitable for real traffic conditions with consideration of multi-criterial performance of the surface transportation system. To this end, the specific objectives are to: (1) identify appropriate time-of-day breakpoints and intervals to accommodate traffic pattern variations for day plan schedule of signal timing; (2) explore the relationship between environmental outcomes (e.g., emissions) from emission estimators and mobility measures (e.g., delay and stops) for different types of intersections; (3) optimize signal timing parameters for multi-criteria objectives (e.g., minimizing vehicular delay, number of stops, marginal costs of emissions and total costs), with the comparison of performance metrics for different objectives, at the intersection level; (4) optimize arterial offsets for different objectives at the arterial level and compare the performance metrics of different objectives to recommend suitable objectives for integrated multi-criteria signal timing design in arterial traffic operations. An extensive review of the literature, which covers existing tools, traffic patterns, traffic control with environmental concerns, and related optimization methods, shows that both opportunities and challenges have emerged for multi-criteria traffic signal timing design. These opportunities include large quantities of traffic condition data collected by system detectors or non-intrusive data collection platforms as well as powerful tools for microscopic traffic modeling and instantaneous emission estimation. The challenge is how to effectively deal with these big data, either from field collection or detailed simulation, and provide useful information for decision makers in practice. Methodologically, there's a tradeoff between the accuracy of objective function values and the computational efficiency of simulation and optimization. To address this need, in this dissertation, traffic signal timing design that systematically enables the use of integrated data and models are investigated and analyzed in the four steps/studies. The technology of identifying time-of-day breakpoints in the first study shows a mathematical way to classify dynamic traffic patterns by understanding dynamic traffic features and instabilities at a macroscopic level on arterials. Given the limitations of using built-in emissions modules within current traffic simulation and signal optimization tools, the metamodeling-based approach presented in the second study makes a methodological contribution. The findings of the second study on environment-mobility relationships set up the base for extensive application of two-stage optimization in the third and fourth studies for sustainable traffic operations and management. The comparison of outputs from an advanced estimator with those from the current tool also addresses improving the emissions module for more accurate analysis (e.g., benefit-cost analysis) in practical signal retiming projects. The third study shows that there are tradeoffs between minimizing delay and minimizing marginal costs of emissions. When total cost (including cost of delay, fuel consumption and emissions) is set as a single objective function, that objective clears the way for relatively reliable results for all the aspects. In the fourth study, the improvements in marginal cost of emissions and total cost by dynamic programming procedure are obvious, which indicates the effectiveness of using total link cost as an objective at the corridor level. In summary, this dissertation advocates a sustainable traffic control system by simultaneously considering travel time, fuel consumption and emissions. The outcomes of this integrated multi-criteria signal timing design can be easily implemented by traffic operators in their daily life of retiming signal timing.

Current global demands for energy resources along with continuous global population growth have placed natural environments and societies under great stress to fulfill such a need without disrupting economic and social structures. Policy and decision-making processes hold some of the most important keys to allow safe paths for societies towards energy security and safeguard of the environment. Brazil has played a lead role within renewable energy production and use during the last decades, becoming one of the world’s leading producer of sugarcane based ethanol and adapting policies to support renewable energy generation and use. Although it is true that Brazil has historic experience with managing development of renewables and its further integration into the consumer market, there is still a lot to do to impulse new technologies that could further reduce emissions, increase economic stability and social welfare. Throughout this thesis project a sustainability assessment of hydrogen production technologies in Brazil is conducted through Multi-Criteria Analysis. After defining an initial framework for decision-making, options for hydrogen production were reviewed and selected. Options were evaluated and weighted against selected sustainability indicators that fitted the established framework within a weighting matrix. An overall score was obtained after the assessment, which ranked hydrogen production techniques based on renewable energy sources in first place. Final scoring of options was analyzed and concluded that several approaches could be taken in interpreting results and their further integration into policy making. Concluding that selection of the right approach is dependent on the time scale targeted for implementation amongst other multi-disciplinary factors, the use of MCA as an evaluation tool along with overarching sustainability indicators can aid in narrowing uncertainties and providing a clear understanding of the variables surrounding the problem at hand.

Thesis (MEng)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The purpose of this project is to find a means to evaluate a number of machines to optimise a process chain. Firstly seven machine types were identified to be included in the study. These machine types include: broach machines, EDM machines, GNG lathes, engine lathes, drilling machines, milling machines and grinders. The information requirements for these machines in terms of attributes for three areas were identified. Functionality, economical and reliability and availability attributes were identified. These attributes were subsequently incorporated into a MS-Access database to provide a database of machine information. Several methods for comparing machines were studied and the decision then fell on one existing method to be used for machine evaluation. A new method was developed to use for evaluating machines. The existing method is the Analytic Hierarchy Process, whereas the new method developed, is called the Quotient Exponential Method. These methods were implemented in the MS-Access database to enable the user to evaluate machines by means of both methods. The results indicate that these methods provide the correct answers according to test values used. It should be noted that the decision methods should, however, only serve as an aid towards an answer and do not necessarily provide the final answer. The AHP process is very time-consuming for this project because of the large number of criteria evaluated.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie projek is om "n manier te vind om masjiene te evalueer om sodoende "n proses-ketting te optimeer. Eerstens is besluit op die soorte masjiene wat ingesluit gaan word in die projek. Sewe soorte masjiene is gekies en sluit in: RNB draaibanke, masjiendraaibanke, boormasjiene, skuurders, elektriese ontladings masjiene, veelvuldige punt snymasjiene en rubeitelmasj iene. Die inligting-vereistes van die sewe masjiene, in terme van hul attribute vir drie areas, is vervolgens geïdentifiseer. Hierdie drie areas is funksionaliteit, koste, asook beskikbaarheid en betroubaarheid. Hierdie attribute word in "n MS-Access databasis gebruik om "n databasis van masjien-inligting te skep. Verskeie metodes vir die vergelyking en evaluasie van masjiene is bestudeer en daar is op een bestaande metode besluit vir die evaluering van "n aantal masjiene. Daarbenewens is ook "n nuwe metode ontwikkel vir die evaluering van masjiene. Die bestaande metode is die Analitiese Hiërargiese Proses, terwyl die nuwe metode die Kwosiënt Eksponensiële Metode genoem word. Altwee hierdie metodes is in MS-Access geïmplemeteer om die gebruiker in staat te stelom masjiene met albei metodes te vergelyk. Die resultate verkry toon aan dat die korrekte resultaat verkry word volgens die toetsdata wat ingevoer is ten opsigte van die twee metodes. Dit moet in gedagte gehou word dat hierdie metodes egter slegs as "n hulpmiddel tot besluitneming gebruik behoort te word en nie noodwendig die finale antwoord lewer nie. AHP is baie tydsaam gevind, aangesien die masjiene in die projek baie attribute bevat het.

Choosing suitable enterprise level systems is an important and complicated decision in any domain. The difficulty in selecting suitable Learning Management Systems (LMSs) is compounded by the sheer number of available products from which to choose. The decision process is further complicated by the large number of features and functions contained in these products and the heterogeneous groups of intended audiences (faculty, staff, and students) that will be using these features. The problem addressed by this researcher is the lack of a multi-criteria decision analysis framework for selecting Learning Management Systems (LMSs). Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides decision makers with a set of theories, methodologies and techniques that can provide structure and manageability to complex decisions. In developing and testing the MCDA framework for selecting suitable LMSs, a number of steps were taken. First, a set of criteria that could be used in the evaluation of these systems was identified. A panel of experts reviewed the criteria set to ensure that it was essentially complete, and yet small enough to be manageable by an evaluation committee. In addition, the panel reviewed the criteria for scoring independence, operability, and non-redundancy. Then, the criteria set was incorporated into a step-by step model of a multi-criteria decision analysis framework for selecting suitable LMSs. In addition to the master set of criteria, the framework provided techniques for weighting criteria and aggregating scores, as well as an Excel spreadsheet tool for managing this information. A university LMS selection committee then successfully implemented this MCDA framework to evaluate three systems for possible use. As a result, the committee found that the system that was selected through this process satisfactorily represented their preferences with regards to selecting a suitable LMS for their unique environment.

New technological advancements such as the “Hyperloop” touted as “the fifth mode of transport” could be an answer to the problems ailing the current transport industry. Hyperloop consists of transport pods running through low pressure tubes for the high speed(upto 1000 km/hr) transportation of goods and people. This technology came into prominence after the open design concept “Hyperloop Alpha” was published by Musk (2013) and since then several governments, academia and private firms have shown interest in the technology with a few test tracks being built in the U.S and Europe. The first Hyperloop human passenger tests at 48m/s (173kmph) inside the vacuum tube were successfully carried out by Virgin Hyperloop at Las Vegas, U.S.A in November 2020 (Mlot, S., 2020). Hardt in collaboration with the Province of North Holland had published a concept study on the impact of 5 proposed Hyperloop routes in Northern Holland (Prov. N-Holland & Hardt, 2020). This research project explores the proposed Hyperloop transport solution in North Holland and its neighbouring areas from a social, socio-economic and environmental perspective as a comparison with existing rail and aviation transport alternatives. A Multi-Criteria Analysis of one of the proposed Hyperloop transport project routes was conducted as a comparison with existing rail and aviation transport alternatives. Results showed that Hyperloop was the highest ranked transport alternative overall in this study, closely followed by Rail, and Aviation was ranked last. Within the social criteria, Hyperloop was ranked best whereas within socio-economic and environmental criteria, Rail was ranked as the best alternative. This MCA could be useful as an aid to decision makers such as regional and national governments, transport policymakers or investors for any similar Hyperloop transport projects within Europe.
Nya tekniska framsteg som ”Hyperloop” som ”femte transportsättet” kan vara ett svar på de problem som drabbar den nuvarande transportbranschen. Hyperloop består av transportbälgen som går genom lågtrycksrör för transport av gods och människor med hög hastighet (upp till 1000 km / tim). Denna teknik kom till framträdande efter att det öppna designkonceptet ”Hyperloop Alpha” publicerades av Musk (2013) och sedan dess har flera regeringar, den akademiska världen och privata företag visat intresse för tekniken med några testspår som byggs i USA och Europa. De första Hyperloop-testningarna för mänskliga passagerare vid 48m / s (173kmph) inuti vakuumröret utfördes framgångsrikt av Virgin Hyperloop i Las Vegas, USA i november 2020 (Mlot, S., 2020). Hardt i samarbete med provinsen Nordholland hade publicerat en konceptstudie om effekterna av 5 föreslagna Hyperloop-rutter i norra Holland (Prov. N-Holland & Hardt, 2020). Detta forskningsprojekt utforskar den föreslagna Hyperloop-transportlösningen i Nordholland och dess närliggande områden ur ett socialt, socioekonomiskt och miljömässigt perspektiv som en jämförelse med befintliga tåg- och flygtransportalternativ. En multikriterieanalys av en av de föreslagna vägarna för Hyperloop-transportprojekt genomfördes som en jämförelse med befintliga järnvägs- och flygalternativ. Resultaten visade att Hyperloop var det högst rankade transportalternativet totalt sett i denna studie, tätt följt av Rail, och Aviation rankades sist. Inom de sociala kriterierna rankades Hyperloop bäst medan inom socioekonomiska och miljömässiga kriterier rankades Rail som det bästa alternativet. Denna MCA kan vara användbar som ett hjälpmedel för beslutsfattare som regionala och nationella regeringar, transportpolitiker eller investerare för liknande Hyperloop-transportprojekt inom Europa.

Estimating and bidding a job is one of those essential processes at the heart of a contractor's business. Risk and uncertainty are major considerations in bidding decisions for construction projects. Numerous factors need to be taken into account when making bidding decisions which make them multi-criteria decisions. The present study focuses on developing multi-criteria decision making models to assist in bidding decisions. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a multi-criteria decision making tool, is used to quantify risk encountered in bidding decisions. The AHP has been employed to model both the bid/no bid and mark-up decisions. The data required for this study was collected from thirty firms operating in Gaza Strip by way of a written structured questionnaire. The data was analysed using the Criterium Decision Plus Software based on the AHP. Ten factors were selected to affect bid/no bid decisions while eleven factors were chosen to influence mark-up decision. Results from the questionnaire survey supported previous studies that profit is not the most important factor in making bid/no bid and mark-up decisions. The results also indicate that the most important factors when making the bid/no bid decision are: the 'need for work' followed by the 'company strength in industry' and 'payment methods'. For the mark-up decision, the 'need for work', 'owner/client and consultant identity' and 'project size' are the most important factors. A real life case study was used to demonstrate the application of the two models. Twelve meetings were conducted with a contractor working in Gaza Strip construction industry in order to gather the required data for the validation. The case study consisted of three different projects, road works, electromechanical and building projects, and the contractor had to make a decision on which projects to bid for and then which of them will result in a higher mark-up. The validity of the two models was confirmed by applying a two-stage Linear Programming (LP) approach to the data obtained from the case study. The results from the LP approach agreed with the outcome from the AHP. The developed AHP models can be easily used by the contractors to assist in making bid/no bid and mark-up decisions. This study investigates the Fuzzy Sets Theory, which is a mathematical approach used to characterise and quantify uncertainty, as a bidding strategy. This study summarises the work that has been done to-date reviewing the fundamental concepts and applications of the Fuzzy Sets Theory in construction. Fuzzy Sets Theory was found to be used widely in construction research but most studies were found theoretical. The research also examines the challenges of using the reverse auction as an open bidding process. In construction industry, reverse auction is one such technique that uses secured Internet technology for tendering process. Advantages of on-line bidding include: the ability to submit more than one bid, time benefits, increasing competitiveness among contractors and attracting unknown bidders. The main drawback of reverse auctions is that the award of the product/service will be based on the price rather than on the quality of the product or service. Furthermore, security and legal issues need further considerations when forming e-contracts for the procurement of construction services. Selecting a suitable contractor to execute a particular project is an important decision for the client to take. Awarding construction contracts based on the price only is not always a successful strategy for contractor selection as it could result in construction delays and cost overruns. In addition to price, factors such as quality and safety need to be taken into account when making the contractor selection decision. In this study, two methods for contractor selection were compared: the points method and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The two methods were applied to a real life case study for contractor selection. Financial and Quality factors were considered to affect the contractor selection decision. Both methods resulted in selecting the same contractor for executing the project under consderation. The Analytical Hierarchy process provides a flexible and computer based method for contractor selection decision.

Mass migration to cities has led to a a huge increase in research into urban environmentalsustainability, its assessment and methods to improve it. This thesisfocuses on the theme of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in digitalurban planning. It addresses the question of how useful such methods wouldbe in quantitative assessment of the environmental sustainability potential ofurban areas in the planning stage. This paper discusses potential methods tobuild an environmental sustainability scoring system for urban areas, choosesthe most promising and applies it to a case study urban area. This is intendedto be a proof of concept piece on whether the application of MCDA to digitalurban planning is feasible and useful. This method is then evaluated basedon its limitations, consistency, robustness to changes in input and on the opinionsof experts in the fields of sustainability and digital urban planning. Itis found that the method proposed, a combination of the AHP and MAUTdecision analysis methods, has several advantages in creating representativesustainability scores and incorporating expert opinions, but is difficult to scaleto include many criteria and requires a high level of input. It is suggested thatfurther research in this area into more scalable MCDA methods would be beneficial,and increasing the reliability and availability of urban environmentaldata would be highly useful for this field.
Massmigration till städer har lett till en enorm ökning av forskning inom hållbarheti stadsmiljöer, dess bedömning och metoder för att förbättra det. Dennaavhandling fokuserar på temat ’multi-criteria decision analysis’ (MCDA, beslutsanalysav flera kriterier) i digital stadsplanering. Den adresserar fråganom hur användbara sådana metoder skulle vara vid kvantitativ bedömning avden miljömässiga hållbarhetspotentialen av stadsområden i planeringsstadiet.Vidare diskuteras potentiella metoder för att ta fram ett poängsystem i miljömässighållbarhet för stadsområden, där den mest lovande väljs och appliceraspå en fallstudie. Detta är meningen att fungera som en konceptvalidering överom appliceringen av MCDA till digital stadsplanering är möjligt och användbart.Metoden utvärderas sedan baserat på dess begränsningar, pålitlighet, robusthettill förändringar i input och med åsikter från experter inom områdenahållbarhet samt digital stadsplanering. Det visas att den föreslagna metoden,en kombination av AHP ochMAUT beslutsanalysmetoderna, har flera fördelarnär det kommer till att skapa representativa hållbarhetspoäng och inkorporeraexpertåsikter, men är svår att skala för att inkludera många kriterier och kräveren stor mängd input. Det föreslås att ytterligare forskning inom detta områdemed mer skalbara MCDA metoder skulle vara lönsamt, samt att öka pålitlighetenoch tillgängligheten av miljödata inom stadsområden skulle vara väldigtanvändbart för detta område.

For many decisions validation of their outcomes is invariably problematic to objectively assess. Therefore to aid analysis and validation of decision outcomes, approaches which provide improved traceability and more semantically meaningful measurements of the decision process are required. Hence, this research investigates traceability, transparency, interactivity and auditability to improve the decision making process. Approaches and evaluation measures are proposed to facilitate a richer decision making experience. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) seeks to determine the suitability of alternatives of a goal with respect to multiple criteria. A key component of prominent MCDA methods is the concept of pairwise comparison. For a set of elements, pairwise comparison enables an accurate and transparent extraction and codification of a decision maker’s preferences, though facilitating a separation of concerns. From a set of pairwise comparisons, a ranking of the elements under consideration can be calculated. There are scenarios when a set of pairwise comparisons undergo alteration, both for individual and multiple decision makers. A set of measures of compromise are proposed to quantify the alteration that a set of pairwise comparisons undergo in such scenarios. The measures seek to provide a decision maker with meaningful knowledge regarding how their views have altered. A set of pairwise comparisons may be inconsistent. When inconsistency is present it adversely affects a ranking of the elements derived from the comparisons. Moreover inconsistency within pairwise comparisons used for consideration of more than a handful of elements is almost inevitable. Existing approaches that seek to alter a set of comparisons to reduce inconsistency lack traceability, flexibility, and specific consideration of alteration to the judgments in a way that is meaningful to a decision maker. An approach to inconsistency reduction is proposed that seeks to address these issues. For many decisions the opinions of multiple decision makers are utilized, either to avail of their combined expertise or to incorporate conflicting views. Aggregation of multiple decision makers’ pairwise companions seek to combine the views of the group into a single representation of views. An approach to group aggregation of pairwise comparisons is proposed that models compromise between the decision makers, facilitates decision maker constraints, considers inconsistency reduction during aggregation and dynamically incorporates decision maker weights of importance. With internet access becoming widespread being able to garner the views of a large group of decision makers’ views has become feasible. An approach to the aggregation of a large group of decision makers’ preferences is proposed. The approach facilitates understanding regarding both the agreement and conflict within the group during calculation of an overall group consensus. A Multi-Objective Optimisation Decision Software (MOODS) prototype tool has been developed that implements both the new measures of compromise and the proposed approaches to inconsistency reduction and group aggregation.