Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Mortality – Economic aspects – Statistics'

This thesis examines the changing patterns of mortality in Scotland, with particular emphasis on whether there are widening mortality inequalities among small areas in Scotland. The annual number of deaths in Scotland has decreased steadily since the 1950s, yet mortality rates in Scotland are amongst the highest in Europe for many causes. Furthermore, mortality from some causes, such as suicide, has been increasing over time, particularly among young adults. Evidence suggests that inequalities in mortality have widened over time in Scotland, despite substantial investment in policies aimed at reducing inequalities. Therefore, it is important to seek geographical clues that might help explain what causes these high mortality rates. The changing patterns in Scottish mortality between 1980 and 2001 were examined for small areas, created by the author, known as Consistent Areas Through Time (CATTs). These areas have the same boundaries for each census, so that direct comparisons over time are possible. In this study, CATTs have been used to investigate three aspects of the mortality gap in Scotland. First, the widening mortality gaps between 1980-1982 and 1999-2001 are examined for the total population and for premature mortality (<65 years). Second, the influence that geographic scale and deprivation have on the relationship between population change and premature mortality are assessed. Third, suicide inequalities are examined for the younger (15-44 years), older (45+) and total population, using mortality ratios and statistical modelling. The research found that inequalities in premature mortality (< 65) have widened for all causes of death studied, particularly for suicide. The negative association between mortality and population change was affected by geographic scale, but this relationship could not be fully explained by deprivation. Small area analyses found that the Highlands and Islands had higher suicide rates than elsewhere in Scotland for males, but not females, when social variables were controlled for.

Objective The objective of the present study is to explore the associations of health expenditures and cause-specific mortality among countries at different stages of economic development. Methodology Scatter plot and simple linear regression were used to estimate whether there was an association between health expenditures and cause-specific mortality. The statistical significance levels were set at p < 0.05. Mortalities due to all causes, and three specific causes of the global burden of disease (GBD) were used. The three kinds of cause-specific mortalities were: communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions (CMPN), non-communicable disease and injuries. Countries were grouped into four income groups according to the standard issued by World Bank in 2012. Result This study suggested general government expenditure on health, as a percentage of total government expenditure, was inversely associated with the three cause-specific mortalities, especially in high income group. Conclusion: This study showed an inverse association between healthcare expenditure and cause-specific mortalities. The Law of Health Transition has been once again evidenced. In developed countries, non-communicable diseases contributed to more deaths compared with mortality from communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions (CMPN). While in less-developed countries, they were facing higher mortalities; CMPN was still a major cause of death, especially among children.
published_or_final_version
Public Health
Master
Master of Public Health

Mortality amenable to health care intervention are premature deaths which, theoretically, should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care. As Scotland has a universal health care system, where health care is freely provided at the point of access to all residents, there should be no socioeconomic inequalities in rates of amenable mortality (AM). However, gradients in rates of AM have been found in many countries, using various measures of socioeconomic position. The routine monitoring of rates of AM, and subgroups of amenable conditions, will contribute towards an indicator of health care performance. Records of all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2013, records of hospitalisations for amenable conditions, and mid-year population estimates were used to calculate rates of age standardised mortality and incident hospitalisations respectively. Absolute and relative inequalities in both rates for the total population were estimated using an area based measure of material deprivation, the Carstairs index. Individual level measurements of socioeconomic position, such as educational attainment, were used to measure inequalities in rates of deaths for a sample of the population, allowing for some comparison with European countries. Rates of AM in Scotland and England were compared in two natural experiments in the final two chapters, aiming to explore the direct and indirect effects of policy changes on health care systems abilities to effectively prevent amenable deaths. Rates of AM in Scotland have been found to be decreasing for both men and women. Mortality rates within two of the three subgroups of amenable conditions have also declined, with the third having too few deaths to comment on trends. The rates of incident hospitalisations of amenable conditions between 1996 and 2013 have remained relatively stable, suggesting that rates of AM may be reflecting improvements in the detection, treatment, and management of amenable conditions. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality rates were largest when estimated using educational attainment, whilst occupational measures produced the smallest inequalities. The rate of decline in rates of AM slowed in Scotland, relative to England, following devolution, however the attempts to adequately control for differing levels of deprivation were unsuccessful. The final chapter saw step increase in rates of AM in England, compared to Scotland, following the publication of a White Paper for the Health and Social Care Act - however, this failed to reach statistical significance. This thesis concludes that the continued study of amenable mortality in Scotland is worthwhile, given that mortality rates continued to decline against stable rates of incident hospitalisations, and relative inequalities in mortality rates were found to be increasing, despite decreasing absolute inequalities. The monitoring of inequalities in rates of AM provides the potential for weaknesses in the provision and delivery of care to be identified and corrected.

The main purpose of this report is to conduct an analysis with a view to determine the potential role and contribution of agriculture in region E. This report emphasises the agricultural impact in determining an economic development strategy for region E. It is therefore the aim of this report to provide a brief situation analysis and an interpretation of existing problems affecting development. The importance of the sector, implications of the spacial distribution, the structure, potential growth and the policy environment will be addressed. From the above, constraints, bottlenecks, the likely future demand, etc will be pointed out. The interpretation of the above and its implications for development is necessary to determine objectives for the aimed strategy. The strategy for region E is necessary in determining policies stressing economic growth and fair distribution of resources to enable the mass of the population to share in increased wealth and economic opportunities.
Region E economic development study

Background Pneumonia and influenza (P&I) infections have been increasing substantially over the past decade and have been attributed to high morbidity and mortality rates. P&I are particularly prevalent amongst the young and elderly populations, but there may be additional vulnerable groups due to socioeconomic disparities that are also at high risk. Health inequalities can oftentimes be linked to socioeconomic inequities. Identifying these groups is essential for lowering P&I mortality rates, which can be addressed via hand washing, vaccination and effective pharmaceuticals. In Hong Kong, the income gap between the poor and wealthy has been on the rise. Inequalities that exist in one socioeconomic factor like income may also exist among other factors as well. Thus constructing a socioeconomic deprivation index (SDI) can be a more powerful and comprehensive indicator than income alone. Objective To examine the effect of tertiary planning unit (TPU)-level socioeconomic deprivation on pneumonia and influenza mortality in Hong Kong. Method This is an ecological study using population census statistics from 2001, 2006 and 2011, along with P&I mortality data from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2010, which were retrieved from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. The census data was used to construct individual TPU SDI scores. Crude and directly standardised mortality rates by age for the underlying cause of P&I were calculated and stratified by gender. The SDI scores were divided into quantiles, which were then analysed for associations with P&I mortality rates using ANOVA. Standardised mortality ratios were also derived to estimate relative risk across SDI. Results A total of 186 TPU clusters from each year were used in the analysis. There were a total number of 42208 deaths with the underlying cause of pneumonia and influenza from 2001 to 2010. The crude rate for both genders in 2001 was 42.4 per 100,000 persons. In 2010 this rate had increased to 84.3 per 100,000 persons. After adjusting for age, the rate increased from 60.4 to 86.6 per 100,000 persons, respectively. A positive trend was observed in both men and women, though rates were higher in men than in women. There was a strong positive association between SDI and CMRs (p<0.001) for the entire study period. However, after adjusting for age the effect was no longer statistically significant (p=0.376). Conclusion The statistically significant results from the crude mortality rates were due to the confounding effects by age. The high-SDI TPUs seem to a higher proportion of older age groups, which contributed to such high crude mortality rates, but lower standardised mortality rates. Even though P&I mortality was not observed to be associated with SDI, it was associated with age. Therefore geographical areas with a high proportion of older people should be more strongly targeted for public health strategies and health promotion.
published_or_final_version
Public Health
Master
Master of Public Health

The rising costs of health care and burgeoning government deficits have prompted new ways to control costs, while continuing to provide necessary health care. One method increasingly chosen by states to achieve these objectives is managed health care. There are many forms of managed care organization today. There are HMOs that provide the financing and delivery systems under the control of a single for-profit or non-profit organization; preferred provider organizations consisting of providers that have a pre-negotiated and usually discounted rate for services; administration service organizations that provide claims adjudication; and managed indemnity services organizations that use case management to control costs, while providing beneficiary freedom of choice.

The study was conducted to investigate the ecological effectiveness and economicefficiency of four wastewater treatment plants in East Central Indiana (Muncie, Anderson, Alexandria, and Paws). Data were collected from the four plants, then analyzed descriptively and statistically, and compared in terms of ecological effectiveness and economic efficiency. The Muncie, Anderson, and Paws wastewater treatment facilities were not significantly different from one another in terms of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) reductions, but each reduced BOD5 more than the Alexandria facility over the three- year period (1996, 1997, and 1998). Plants were not statistically different regarding suspended solids (SS) reductions. The Muncie, Anderson, and Paws wastewater treatment plants were also not significantly different from one another on ammonia reduction, but each plant reduced ammonia significantly more than Alexandria. Muncie and Anderson were not different from each other on dissolved oxygen (DO) levels, but each had a statistically higher level of DO in the final effluent than Alexandria and Paws. The study showed a statistically significant difference in fecal coliform bacteria abatement between Anderson and Alexandria, Anderson and Paws, and Muncie and Alexandria. Furthermore, Muncie, Anderson and Alexandria were different in terms of cost per 1000 gallons of wastewater treated. Muncie has been treating wastewater at a lower cost than the other treatment plants, whereas Anderson had a higher cost over the three-year period.
Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management

Background： Previous studies indicated that dietary habit or food-purchasing behaviors was associated with socioeconomic status. However, there is no study about potential association between social economic factors (individual and neighborhood levels) and dietary related mortality risks. Objective: 1) To provide population based information on food consumption pattern among Hong Kong people from a diversity of socio-economic background. 2) Investigate the dietary habits and different food related death in Hong Kong people who were 65 or over. 3) Investigate the association of socioeconomic factors and food related death at individual (SES) and neighborhood (SDI) level. Method: The subjects we recruited in a lifestyle and mortality (LIMOR)study forall deceased people aged 65 or older. The LIMOR data was conducted by The University of Hong Kong, School of Public health in the year of 1997. I got access to part of the data for my study from the leading investigator (Dr. Daniel SY Ho). Dietary habits were measured by using semi-quantitative food frequency questions on seven most commonly consumed food groups by Hong Kong residents: vegetables, fruits, soy and dairy products fish, meat and Chinese tea.Mortality in 1998 due to non-accidental causes (ICD9: 001—799) was examined. In my study, mortality due to specific categories of cardio-respiratory causes was regarded as the case and the due to pneumonia was regarded as the control. Binary logistic regression was used for assessment of odds ratio with adjustment for confounders. Result: Regular consumption of fruit was significantly (P<0.01) related to lower mortality due to COPD with adjusted OR =0.77 (95%CI 0.63-0.94) and regular consumption of vegetables was significantly(p<0.05) related to lower mortality due tocolon cancer with adjusted OR =0.58 (95%CI 0. 33-1.00). Milk consumption was significantly(p<0.05) related to higher mortality for both ischemicheart disease (adjusted OR=1.25; 95%CI 1.02-1.51) and COPD (p<0.01 adjusted OR=1.37; 95%CI 1.08-1.73) for people aged over 65. In my study, fish consumption was significantly (p<0.05) associated with lower mortality due to stomach cancer with adjusted OR=0.47 (95%CI 0.30-0.75). Meat consistently showed positive correlation with all f the causes of death, however, none of them were significant. Soy consumption was consistently and non-significantly shown to have a negative association with different causes of death, except COPD. Tea was negatively associated with COPD and hypertension, though none of them were significant. For those who lived in homeowner‘s scheme house, they were more likely (p<0.05) to have hypertension (OR=1.79; 95%CI 1.03-3.13). Also for people who lived in private houses, they were more likely (p<0.05) to died from IHD (OR=1.27; 95%CI 1.09-1.60) and colon cancer (OR=1.27; 95%CI 1.01-1.59) death. People who had primary (OR=1.45; 95%CI 1.12-1.86) and secondary and above education(OR=1.27; 95%CI 1.01-1.59) had a significantly (p<0.05) association with mortality due to colon cancer. People who had low SES and lived in high SDI area were less likely (p<0.05) to die fromischemic heart disease (OR=0.41; 95%CI 0.17-0.98). Conclusion: In Hong Kong, people who had higher education tended to consume more dairy products than lower education group and they were more likely to die from colon cancer. People who lived in private houses had higher consumption of dairy products than those lived in public estate and they were more likely to die from IHD and colon cancer. For people who had high SES, no matter which SDI areas they lived, they tended to have a more frequent consumption of fruit, bean, dairy products and meat than those oflow SES. People who had low SES and lived in high SDI area, as we considered as the poorest people, were less likely to die withischemic heart disease.
published_or_final_version
Public Health
Master
Master of Public Health

There is limited understanding of how both trends and determinants of neonatal mortality vary from post-neonatal mortality, and more specifically how health care variables are associated with deaths in the first month of life. In particular the association between care at delivery and neonatal mortality is difficult to determine: in developing countries many women only seek skilled care once complications arise, making poor outcomes more probable. It is therefore inappropriate to directly compare outcomes from those who did and did not receive care at delivery due to this heterogeneity between the groups. This three-paper PHD thesis attempts to address some of these issues. Chapter 1 provides an overview of what is known about the determinants of neonatal and child mortality, before developing a conceptual framework for the analysis of neonatal and post-neonatal deaths. Chapter 2 (paper 1) provides a comprehensive analysis of the quality of Demographic & Household Surveys (DHS) data, before describing how trends in neonatal mortality differ from post-neonatal mortality over the short- and medium- term. It then examines how the associations between gross domestic product and neonatal, post-neonatal and early childhood mortality at national level differ using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Chapter 3 (paper 2) uses DHS data from Bangladesh to carry out bivariate and multivariate analysis to determine how the determinants of neonatal mortality vary from those of postneonatal mortality. It also tries to identify groups of women who are at ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk from institutional deliveries and compares rates of neonatal mortality. The risk categories are based on socio-economic, maternal health and health care utilisation factors that influence whether or not they are likely to have planned their delivery care or sought hospital care only in the event of complications. Chapter 4 (paper 3) furthers this work using Indian DHS data by examining how the association between health care determinants and neonatal mortality differ by asset quintile, mother’s education and state-level access to professional attendant at delivery. In this chapter I also use instrumental variable methodology to overcome the problem of endogeneity between delivery care variables and neonatal mortality. This technique enables me to examine the association between professional assistance at delivery while adjusting for the heterogeneity between women who do and do not seek such care. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of key findings, as well as outlining areas for further research in this area.

The question of the etiology of child abuse has received growing research attention since the early 60's. This attention has moved from a strictly individual psychopathology focus to a more systemic, environmental perspective. The determination of significant correlates of child abuse, in view of this dichotomy, holds very important policy and intervention implications. This is because as the importance of environmental factors rises, so does the "depth" or systemic nature of the intervention required. The environmental model proposes that abusive behaviour is not only a function of an individual's psychological makeup. In addition, factors outside the individual are thought to be critical components in the abuse phenomenon. These factors are a part of the social environment of the individual and thus impinge upon all individuals who live in that environment. Research into environmental correlates of child abuse is still at an early phase of development. The works of James Garbarino, Blair and Rita Justice, and Ralph Catalano, David Dooley, et al. have made progress in identifying possible significant systemic correlates, in tentative connective hypotheses, and in research approaches. Garbarino, and Catalano, Dooley, et al have focused on various community-level features of economic climate. The Justices' have focused on the importance of high levels of stress in inducing abusive behaviour. However, this work has all pertained to the American environment. There are no studies which have started replicating their seminal work in Canada. The present study does precisely this. This study tests for the existence of an association between selected correlates of the economy's ability to provide jobs and the incidence of child abuse. The selected correlates of the economy are the size of the labour force and the unemployment rate in the Greater Vancouver Metropolitan area, and the rate of income assistance receipt by employable persons for a subset of municipalities found within the Greater Vancouver Metropolitan area. These variables are aggregate monthly totals. They are correlated with a monthly incidence rate of child abuse reports drawn from the same geographical area as the income assistance statistics. The ability of a community to provide jobs is a significant feature of a community's environment, and one which may create general stress. Thus, a significant correlation was expected. The series' were manipulated using the ARIMA method of time series analysis in order to remove regular, patterned behaviour in the series'. The "prewhitened" series' were then regressed from a twelve month lead through to a twelve month lag interval. This resulted in 300 correlations. The findings were very conservative, with only 13 significant correlations. The interpretation of this was based on patterns of correlation, consistency across lags and between similar variables. There did not appear to be any consistency in the significant findings. However, regression of unprewhitened series' showed very significant correlations. This lead the researcher to the conclusion that the modelling process removed whatever features were producing the correlation. This suggests, due to the nature of the modelling process, that some regular or very subtle pattern occurs within both the economic series' and the child abuse series'. Further research is needed to determine the nature of this pattern, and the degree of actual correlation it indicates, as opposed to a simple third variable explanation.
Arts, Faculty of
Social Work, School of
Graduate

This thesis examines health inequalities by area-level socioeconomic deprivation, and health in later life in New Zealand. It identifies whether expansion or compression of morbidity is occurring at the end of life. It asks if overall morbidity at a population level is likely to increase or decrease in future as life expectancy increases, and if the same trend is seen for more and less deprived areas. The focus of this research is the identification and dissemination of mortality and morbidity patterns present in two large datasets, using powerful but relatively simple techniques. Large administrative datasets on morbidity and public hospital discharges in New Zealand between 1974 and 2006 are used in the analyses. The thesis consists of three papers. Each paper uses the same datasets, but addresses separate research questions using different methods. The first paper is an exploratory analysis of age-specific and age-standardised mortality and hospital bed day rates, which are used as a proxy for morbidity. The second paper explores lifetime morbidity by using period-prevalence life table functions including Hospital Utilisation Expectancies: a variation of health expectancies. The third paper uses individual record linkage between the mortality and hospital datasets to examine hospital use in the last few months of life. Hospital bed day and mortality rates declined over the time period, and convergence was seen between more and less deprived areas. Individuals at the oldest ages (80 years and over) saw little variation in hospital or mortality rates by area deprivation. Strong evidence for compression of morbidity was observed, particularly at older ages. This was in the absence of evidence for rectangularisation of the survival curve, considered by some to be a prerequisite for compression of morbidity. Rectangularisation of the survival curve would be denoted by life expectancy increases slowing, indicating the nearing of a limit to life expectancy. Instead, compression of morbidity was achieved through a decline in the severity of morbidity in the months prior to death. No evidence of a change in the point at onset of morbidity prior to death was observed. There was however some evidence that the decline in hospital utilisation prior to death (particularly for deaths at older ages) may be partly artefactual. Further research using a different measure of morbidity is required to either support or disprove this theory.

The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.

Compared to the globalized markets of goods and services, technology production has been often described as “far from globalized” and mainly concentrated in the home country of multinational enterprises. However, academics and international organizations recognize that research and development (R&D) activities are increasingly performed at the international level. In particular, the globalization of innovation is a major concern since it is at the crossroads of the rising importance of knowledge economy and the increasing international slicing of firms’ value chains. In this context, the main motivations of this thesis are to investigate the extent to which innovation takes place across national borders and to analyze the drivers of this phenomenon across countries and across industries. For this purpose, this dissertation provides new evidence on the globalization of innovation in four empirical essays using patent-based indicators.

First, the relevance of patent statistics as indicators of innovation is evaluated by studying the relationship between expenditures in R&D activities and patenting efforts. Chapter 2 decomposes this relationship at the industry level to shed light on the origins of the worldwide surge in patent applications. The empirical investigation of the R&D-patent relationship relies on a unique panel dataset composed of 18 manufacturing industries in 19 countries covering the period from 1987 to 2005, for which five broad patent indicators are developed. This study shows that patent applications at the industry level reflect not only research productivity, but also two main components of the propensity to patent which are firms’ strategic considerations: the decision to protect an invention with a patent (the “appropriability strategy”) and the number of patents filed to protect an innovation (the “filing strategy”). The comparison between the results for various patent count indicators provides also interesting insights. While some industries (computers and communication technologies) and countries (South Korea, Spain, and Poland) have experienced a drastic increase in patent applications, the ratio of priority patent applications to R&D expenditures has been generally constant. This result suggests that there has been no spurt in innovation productivity. In contrast, regional applications (filings at the United States Patent and Trademark Office or at the European Patent Office) have been increasing since the early 1990s, suggesting that the patent explosion observed in large regional patent offices is due to the greater globalization of intellectual property rights rather than a surge in research productivity. Innovative firms are increasingly targeting global markets and hence have a higher tendency to seek protection in key markets worldwide.

Chapter 3 introduces, firstly, aggregate patent-based indicators to measure the globalization of innovation production. Secondly, it describes the patterns in international technology production for a large panel dataset covering 21 industries in 29 countries from 1980 to 2005. A strong growth in the intensity of globalization of innovation is confirmed not only in terms of cross-border ownership of innovation, but also in terms of international technological collaborations. More interestingly, heterogeneity across countries and industries is observed. On the one hand, more innovative countries (or industries) do not present more globalized innovation footprint. On the other hand, the ownership of innovation is still strongly concentrated in a few countries, although its location is increasingly dispersed across the world. Thirdly, it investigates empirically two main opposing motives driving the internationalization of innovation: home-base augmenting and home-base exploiting strategies. The results show that the degree of internationalization of innovation is negatively related to the revealed technological advantage of countries across industries. Countries tend to be more technologically globalized in industrial sectors in which they are less technologically specialized. The empirical findings suggest also that countries with multidisciplinary technological knowledge are more likely to take part in international co-inventions of new technologies and to be attractive for foreign innovative firms. This aggregated patent-based analysis provides additional evidence that globalization of innovation is a means of acquiring competences abroad that are lacking at home, suggesting that home-base augmenting motives matter in the globalization of innovation production. By contrast, the internationalization of innovation does not seem to be purely market-driven since large economies are not the target of foreign innovative firms and international patenting is more related to international competitiveness of country-industry pairs than to the direction of trade flows.

While the previous chapter studies the globalization of innovation of a country with the rest of world, Chapter 4 aims at explaining who collaborates with whom in the international production of technology. In particular, the impact of technological distance between partner’s economies is investigated for a panel dataset covering international co-inventions between 29 countries in 21 industries between 1988 and 2005. The descriptive analysis highlights that the overall growth in internationalization of innovation is due to both the increase in the number of international innovative actors and the rise of the average intensity of collaboration. The empirical findings then suggest that the two main arguments related to technological distance – ‘similarity versus diversity’ – can be reconciled by taking an industry approach. Indeed, the estimation results show that the impact of technological distance is twofold on the intensity of collaborative innovation at industry level. On the one hand, the more similar the industry-specific knowledge of two countries (low technological distance within the industry), the more easily they collaborate by sharing common industrial knowledge. On the other hand, the more different their non-industry-specific knowledge (high technological distance outside the scope of the industry), the more they collaborate to gain access to broad and interdisciplinary expertise. It suggests that the relative absorptive capacity between partner’s economies and the search for novel and complementary knowledge are key drivers of the globalization of innovation. Moreover, the results confirm the moderating effect of non-technological distance factors (spatial proximity, ease of communication, institutional proximity, and overall economic ties) in cross-border innovative relationships.

The topic of Chapter 5 is the cost-benefit analysis of the creation of a new ‘globalized’ patent: the EU Patent (formerly known as Community Patent) which consists in a single patent covering the entire EU territory for both application procedure and legal enforcement after grant. The objective of this chapter is threefold: (i) simulate the budgetary consequences in terms of renewal fees’ income for the European and national patent offices; (ii) evaluate the implications for the business sector in terms of absolute and relative fees; (iii) assess the total economic impact for the most important actors of the European patent system. Based on an econometric model explaining the determinants of the maintenance rate of patents, the simulations suggest that – with a sound renewal fee structure – the EU patent could generate more income for nearly all patent offices than under the current status quo. It would, at the same time, substantially reduce the relative patenting costs for applicants. Finally, the loss of economic rents by patent attorneys, translators and lawyers, and the drop of controlling power by national patent offices elucidate further the persistence of a fragmented European patent system.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Incorrect Afrikaans summary included in thesis.
Thesis (MPhil--University of Stellenbosch, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study was aimed at using secondary data to conduct an investigation into the relationship between macro-economic factors on one hand and aspects of household life on the other hand. On the basis of the results thereof, an assessment was to be made of how such a relationship reflected on the living arrangements of households in contemporary South African society. The basis of the analysis was secondary data from the October Household Survey (OHS-96) data set, which is rich in specific information encompassing various aspects of human life, like demographic details and household variables as well as health, education and employment variables. As expected, the results showed that the current state of living arrangements of households is characterised by positive relationships between income levels on the one hand and households variables like type of dwelling and dwelling ownership on the other hand. However, the same findings further revealed a surprising outcome that unlike expected, there is no clear relationship between income and another significant household variable i.e. household size (members). However, our findings lead us to a conclusion that on the whole, there is a hypothesised relationship between macro-economic conditions of a country on one hand, and patterns in living arrangements of households on the other hand. The results further revealed that as expected, the factors of magisterial district and race/population groups have an effect on this relationship that reflect our legacy of social and economic development policies of the apartheid era which gave rise to urban (metropolitan) and racial bias in the socio-economic development of households. The results thereof are that African households in particular, and urban poor black households in general, have become the least prosperous in terms of material or economic living conditions. The implications of these findings for theory and policy are highlighted. At the level of methodology, the valuable experience of this study served to further highlight the worth of secondary data analysis, not only in general economic terms, but also as invaluable educational or teaching tool for students which recommends its increased use by all practitioners or institutions of social research methods.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Internet en sy Kuberruimtes is ontwikkel in die 1960s as 'n manier om inligting oor te dra sonder die risiko van intersepsie en vernietiging. Vandag, 40 jaar later het die Internet gegroei in beide grootte en toepassing. Die mees algemene gebruike is nogsteeds kommunikasie en die oordrag van informasie. Hierdie tesis is 'n etnografiese studie van my ervaringe in 'n Kuberruimte van die Internet- 'n virtuele gemeenskap byname Amazon City.com. Virtuele gemeenskappe is areas op die Internet waar mense bymekaar kom om hul daaglikse lewens, kwessies en enige iets toepaslik vir die spesifieke gemeenskap, te bespreek. Die tipe gemeenskap word gesien as 'n reaksie van die verval van "derde plekke" in af-lyn lewe en globalisering Die gemeenskap wat vorm in hierdie areas ontwikkel kulturele veronderstelling. Hierdie veronderstellings word openbaar aan 'n nuwe lid deur tyd en interaksie in die konferensie area. Die veronderstellings wat ek ervaar het strek van kennis benodig om 'n aanvaarde en suksesvolle lid van die gemeenskap te word, tot taal gebruik en identiteit van die lede. Die konklusie is bereik dat lede hul interaksie en lidmaatskap in hierdie gemenskappe as net so bevredigend en "eg" ervaar as hul aktiwiteite in hul af-lyn lewe. Verdere aspekte wat 'n webblad 'n suksesvolle en ekonomiese vatbare besigheids strategie maak vir sy eienaar, was my volgende fokus. Internet besigheid groei teen 'n geweldige spoed, en impliseer nie slegs die verkoop van produkte aanlyn nie. Rekenaar-ondersteunde kommunikasie toestelle is geimplimenteer op kommersiële webbladsye nadat dit gevind is in die vroeë 1990s dat mense soek vir 'n plek wat meer is as net nog 'n winkel. Ander maniere wat hierde dot com webbladsye gebruik om inkomste te genereer en of die lede gesien word as burgers of as verbruikers word ook bestudeer. Daar is gevind dat die lede hulself sien as burgers maar webbladsy lojaliteit sal die lede aanspoor om as verbruikers op te tree indien nodig. Die kommersiële aspekte van die tipe webbladsy is 'n noodsaaklik deel vir die voortbestaan van die dot com webbladsy, en die gemeenskap wat daar ontwikkel.

[Truncated abstract] The Disability-Adjusted Life Year index, developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study, is used extensively to compare disease burden between locations and over time. While calculation of the fatal component of this measure, Years of Life Lost, is relatively straight-forward, the non-fatal component, Years Lived with Disability, is based on parameters that are challenging to estimate. This thesis pioneers the use of the Western Australian Data Linkage System to enhance epidemiological parameters underpinning Years Lived with Disability, providing, by way of illustration, a robust quantitative profile of burden of stroke in the state of Western Australia at the turn of the 21st century. The principal methodological objective was to utilise data linkage analytic methods for the specific requirements of burden of disease estimation. The principal stroke-related objectives were: 1. To estimate the parameters underpinning the non-fatal burden of stroke (Years Lived with Disability) in Western Australia in 2000. 2. To estimate the total burden of stroke (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) in Western Australia in 2000. 3. To investigate differentials in stroke burden between different sub-populations in Western Australia. 4. To calculate projections of stroke burden for Western Australia in 2016. Years Lived with Disability from stroke were calculated for Western Australia from nonfatal stroke incidence, expected duration and disability (severity) weights. Non-fatal incidence was estimated using linked hospital and death records of first-ever hospitalised stroke 28-day survivors in 2000. This was then adjusted for out-of-hospital cases determined from the population-based Perth Community Stroke Study. iv Analysis of mortality in hospitalised 28-day survivors using linked data revealed that the excess mortality in prevalent, rather than incident cases was the main disease-specific parameter required for modelling stroke duration using DisMod II specialised software. ... Access to data linkage and population-based stroke studies in Western Australia allowed more accurate estimation of non-fatal stroke burden, with previous reports most likely underestimating disability as a contributor to total burden. Although predominantly affecting the growing aged population, stroke also affects a sizable number under the age of 65 years, the age group where differentials in stroke burden are the greatest. The findings highlight the continued need for primary prevention efforts for all ages, targeting especially younger people in disadvantaged groups. The shift to greater disability burden in the future and the needs of disadvantaged groups must be considered when planning stroke services. The multiple studies undertaken for this thesis contribute to ongoing improvement of data quality and methodological refinements underpinning estimates of Years Lived with Disability, specifically for stroke, but applicable also to other diseases. Similar linked data approaches can be used in other Australian states in the future once infrastructure is developed, thereby improving estimates of disease burden for health policy and planning in the future.

This study looked at the environmental factors present during testing for the spring 2004 administration of the California High School Exit Exam (CAHSEE) in an attempt to quantify some of the factors that were previously only qualitatively reported. Five factors were examined for their ability to predict passing percentages of students on the CASHSEE at the school level. The results indicated that socioeconomic status was the only significant predictor.

Chapter 1 discusses the econometric pitfalls associated with the use of patent production functions to study the invention process. It then goes on to argue that a sound understanding of the invention process necessarily requires an understanding of the propensity to patent. The empirical analysis carried out in Chapter 1 seeks to explain the proportion of inventions patented – a potential metric for the propensity to patent – from an international sample of manufacturing firms.

Chapter 2 proposes a methodology to filter out the noise induced by varying patent practices in the R&D-patent relationship. The methodology explicitly decomposes the patent-to-R&D ratio into its components of productivity and propensity. It is then applied to a novel data set of priority patent applications in four countries and six industries.

Chapter 3 takes stock of the literature on the role of fees in patent systems while Chapter 4 presents estimates of the price elasticity of demand for patents at the trilateral offices (that is, in the U.S. Japan and Europe). The estimation of dynamic panel data models of patent applications suggests that the long-term price elasticity is about -0.30.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Through theory and econometric instrumentals, this work intends to estimate the behavior of Electric Energy’s Demand Curve to Brazil, through the behavior of important variables for residential sector, industrial and commercial sectors. It’s important to achievement for futures projections that enable to know if installed capacity is enough to answer Energy demand. Using Co-integration concept, were estimated the Vector Error Correction, used to project the demand to the period of 2009-2017. There were some obstacles regarding the estimation of the curve of the industrial sector with respect to the variable IPA-OG industrial machinery and equipment and IPA-OG fuels and lubricants, where their estimated coefficients were inconclusive. Energy consumption by the residential sector is showing increasing but at a decreasing rate, and was influenced by the efficiency of consumption (consumer behavior on the part of the post-rationing and the use of more efficient equipment for the use of electricity). As results, the Energy’s demand is growing and may be superior to installed capacity. Was introduced the Social Cost Politic concept to Energy’s demand and the results show that it politics can reduce the demand, and it can be used as a restrictive measure to Energy’s demand, rather than aggressive restrictive politics.
Com base em subsídios teóricos e no instrumental econométrico, este trabalho pretende estimar o comportamento da Curva de Demanda por energia elétrica para o Brasil, considerando o comportamento de variáveis relevante aos setores residencial, comercial e industrial. A estimação da curva de demanda propicia um instrumental que permite a realização de projeções futuras, as quais por sua vez, permitem verificar se a capacidade instalada de energia atende adequadamente a expectativa de demanda por este produto. Pelo conceito de Co-integração, foram estimados os Modelos de Correção de Erros (VEC), utilizado para projetar o consumo para o período de 2009-2017. De forma geral, os resultados alcançados foram bons, não tendo coeficientes não significativos e sendo os sinais dos parâmetros concernentes à teoria econômica. Houve alguns entraves quanto à estimação da curva do setor industrial com relação à variável IPA-OG máquinas e equipamentos industriais e IPA-OG combustíveis e lubrificantes, onde seus coeficientes estimados foram inconclusivos. Utilizou-se, pois, novas proxies para tais variáveis, a saber, câmbio real efetivo e preço médio – óleo combustível. Através dos resultados alcançados, o consumo crescente de energia pode ser superior a capacidade de fornecimento de energia, evidenciando a necessidade de implantação de políticas restritivas ao consumo de energia. O consumo de energia por parte do setor residencial se mostra crescente, mas a uma taxa decrescente, sendo influenciado pela maior eficiência do consumo (comportamento por parte do consumidor pós-racionamento e utilização de equipamentos mais eficientes quanto ao uso da energia elétrica). Buscou-se introduzir o conceito de Custo Social ao consumo de energia e os resultados mostram que dentre os setores, o industrial sofrera maior penalidade no consumo e que tal política pode proporcionar redução no consumo, podendo ser esta política utilizada como medida restritiva para a demanda por energia.

The role of inland fisheries as contributors to local and national economies in developing African countries is well documented. In South Africa, there is increasing interest in inland fisheries as vehicles for achieving national policy objectives including food security, livelihoods provision, poverty alleviation and economic development but there is surprisingly little literature on the history, current status, and potential of inland fishery resources. This lack of knowledge constrains the development of management strategies for ensuring the biological sustainability of these resources and the economic and social sustainability of the people that are dependent on them. In order to contribute to the knowledge base of inland fisheries in South Africa this thesis: (1) presents an exhaustive review of the available literature on inland fisheries in South Africa; (2) describes the organisation of recreational anglers (the primary users of the resource); (3) compiles recreational angling catch records and scientific gill net survey data, and assesses the applicability of these data for providing estimates of fish abundance (catch-per-unit effort [CPUE]); and finally, (4) determines the potential for models of fish abundance using morphometric, edaphic, and climatic factors. The literature review highlighted the data-poor nature of South African inland fisheries. In particular information on harvest rates was lacking. A lack of knowledge regarding different inland fishery sectors, governance systems, and potential user conflicts was also found. Recreational anglers were identified as the dominant user group and catch data from this sector were identified as potential sources of fish abundance and harvest information. Formal freshwater recreational angling in South Africa is a highly organised, multi-faceted activity which is based primarily on angling for non-native species, particularly common carp Cyprinus carpio and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides. Bank anglers constituted the largest number of formal participants (5 309 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations) followed by bass anglers (1 184 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations). The highly structured nature of organised recreational angling and dominant utilisation of inland fisheries resources by this sector illustrated not only the vested interest of anglers in the management and development of inland fisheries but also the role that anglers may play in future decision-making and monitoring through the dissemination of catch data from organised angling events. Generalised linear models (GLMs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to standardise CPUE estimates from bass- and bank angling catch records, which provided the most suitable data, and to determine environmental variables which most influenced capture probabilities and CPUE. Capture probabilities and CPUE for bass were influenced primarily by altitude and conductivity and multiple regression analysis revealed that predictive models incorporating altitude, conductivity, surface area and capacity explained significant (p<0.05) amounts of variability in CPUE (53%), probability of capture (49%) and probability of limit bag (74%). Bank angling CPUE was influenced by conductivity, surface area and rainfall although an insignificant (p>0.05) amount of variability (63%) was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables as investigations were constrained by small sample sizes and aggregated catch information. Scientific survey data provided multi-species information and highlighted the high proportion of non-native fish species in Eastern Cape impoundments. Gillnet catches were influenced primarily by species composition and were less subject to fluctuations induced by environmental factors. Overall standardised gillnet CPUE was influenced by surface area, conductivity and age of impoundment. Although the model fit was not significant at the p<0.05 level, 23% of the variability in the data was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables. The presence of species which could be effectively targeted by gillnets was hypothesised to represent the most important factor influencing catch rates. Investigation of factors influencing CPUE in impoundments dominated by Clarias gariepinus and native cyprinids indicated that warmer, younger impoundments and smaller, colder impoundments produced higher catches of C. gariepinus and native cyprinids respectively. A predictive model for C. gariepinus abundance explained a significant amount of variability (77%) in CPUE although the small sample size of impoundments suggests that predictions from this model may not be robust. CPUE of native cyprinids was influenced primarily by the presence of Labeo umbratus and constrained by small sample size of impoundments and the model did not adequately explain the variability in the data (r² = 0.31, p>0.05). These results indicate that angling catch- and scientific survey data can be useful in providing predictions of fish abundance that are biologically realistic. However, more data over a greater spatial scale would allow for more robust predictions of catch rates. This could be achieved through increased monitoring of existing resource users, the creation of a centralised database for catch records from angling competitions, and increased scientific surveys of South African impoundments conducted by a dedicated governmental function.

A thesis submitted to the faculty of Humanities, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of PhD in Demography and Population Studies. September, 2016.
Background: While there has been a significant global reduction in maternal mortality rates from 546 000 in 1990 to 287 000 in 2010 (Zureick-Brown et al., 2013;Merdad, et al., 2013), maternal mortality in Zambia continues to be above at 483 per 100 000 live births, eluding the millennium development target of 162 (CSO, 2012). Data on maternal mortality are not disaggregated by provinces. Various studies on maternal mortality conducted in Zambia (Ahmed et al., 1999; Banda et al., 2007; Hazemba & Siziya, 2009; Kilpatrick, Crabtree & Kemp, 2002) have evaluated maternal deaths at national level using direct death inquiry and though it is useful for international comparisons, neither one of these approaches are appropriate for evaluating maternal mortality in small districts where safe motherhood initiatives are often carried out. These studies have rarely included neighbourhood influence on maternal mortality risks. Moreover, no known study has attempted to use the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey maternal health indicators to evaluate maternal mortality by regions in Zambia. Yet, analyses of differentials within small districts provide an improved awareness of the social situation in which the risks are high for regional priority interventions. In addition, other researchers (Achia & Mageto 2015; Stephenson & Elfstrom 2012) have all posted that inclusion of neighbourhood level variables is helpful to understand several maternal health outcomes. Objective: Guided by the conceptual framework developed by McCarthy & Maine (1992), this study contributes the new method of use of the mean Maternal Death Risk Factor Index model to estimate the levels and differentials in the risks of maternal mortality by regions and enhance the understanding of determinants of maternal mortality risks. This model is helpful in that it highlights regional and socioeconomic differentials in maternal mortality risks and ranks regions according to their potential maternal mortality burdens. Benchmarks are set by using this model and indicators are used to identify probable high-risk areas or regions. Methodology: The study utilised existing data sources from the 2007 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and 2011-2013 Health Management Information System Routine Data (HMIS). Bivariate analysis was utilised to investigate the distribution and differentials in exposure to maternal mortality risks. Multilevel logistic regression was performed to investigate the independent and moderating functions of neighbourhood aspects on exposure to maternal mortality risks and the moderating functions of neighbourhood causes on the relationship between individual circumstances and exposure to maternal mortality risks. The mean Maternal Death Risk Factor Index (MDRFI) model that uses the history of individual women health indicators was used to predict maternal mortality and highlight regional and socioeconomic differentials of maternal mortality risks. The analysis was based on 5 410 women aged 15 to 49 who had a live birth in the five years prior to the 2007 Zambian Demographic and Health Surveys. The HMIS 2011-2013 data was also utilised for a comparative analysis and complementing DHS data on maternal health matters in Zambia. Results: The predicted maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) values by region showed larger regional disparities. All the seven rural regions had MMR above the national average (591/100 000 live births); the highest being in Northern Zambia (738 per 100 000 live births) and Central Zambia (679 per 100 000 live births). The predicted ratios in the two urban regions of Lusaka and Copper-belt were significantly below the national average. The findings of both bivariate and multivariate analyses showed that skilled birth attendance at delivery significantly lowered the risks of exposure to adverse pregnancy outcome. The likelihood of using skilled personnel at birth was advanced for women who resided in neighbourhoods, with advanced proportion of women who utilized skilled delivery at birth compared to women who lived in neighbourhoods that had a high proportion of women giving birth at home. The outcome from the multilevel analysis showed that the consequence of individual and neighbourhood influences on the exposure to high risk pregnancy in Zambia operates at different levels. Women with no education were found to be more exposed to high risk pregnancy than women with post primary education. The rate of women in the neighbourhood who utilized skilled birth attendance had a strong positive impact on the reduction of exposure to high risk pregnancy. In the analysis of autonomy level – although results indicated that women with low autonomy had higher odds of exposure to high risk pregnancy compared to women with high autonomy – the results were not significant, and therefore autonomy level in terms of exposure to high risk pregnancy was not supported in this study. Conclusion: The MDRFI model is much easier to use at any level and quicker to forecast interventions as well as prevent probable risks compared to the use of the sisterhood method. The model proposed here could serve as the basis for a new and better system of mortality estimation for populations with incomplete data. The results reveal a number of challenges to confront with the purpose of reducing maternal mortality in Zambia. Women’s high risk reproductive behaviours and the use of imperative fertility healthcare utilities have yet to increase considerably to result in a decrease in maternal deaths in the nation. The continuous disparities in maternal death hardship by province, rural-urban dwelling and socioeconomic position of the society further heightened the issue, making attempts to enhance maternal health and thereby decrease maternal deaths more demanding. Advancements to lower maternal mortality should either lessen the probability that a woman will become pregnant or lower the possibility that a pregnant woman will experience adverse reactions during pregnancy or childbirth or better the outcomes for women with complex pregnancies. This research makes it evident that programs to combat maternal mortality risks in the country require several avenues that embrace diverse protective measures looking beyond the individual level as women’s health is essentially affected by their social environment. The amount of differential at neighbourhood and individual level found in our study indicates the need to contextualise efforts to increase resources towards mitigating exposure to high risk pregnancy. Hence, adopting neighbourhood-specific strategies along with identifying and addressing neighbourhood factors affecting the exposure to high risk pregnancy would give better results. The use of multilevel analysis in this research has shown that individual and neighbourhood aspects are crucial components associated with the exposure to high risk pregnancy. The multilevel framework demonstrated crucial neighbourhood differentials in the exposure to high risk pregnancy. Improving quality and access to health services is essential if the most deprived are to benefit. The Ministry of Health should align its plans of action to Zambia’s development strategy articulated in its own Vision 2030. Neighbourhood health workers need to be involved in sensitising pregnant women about the risks of maternal mortality, for instance short birth interval, risky maternal age and danger signs during pregnancy. To close the gap in exposure to high risk pregnancy between neighbourhoods, interventions should aim at poverty reduction, increasing neighbourhood maternal education and facility delivery in deprived neighbourhoods. The model used in this study could serve as the basis for a new and better system of mortality estimation for populations with incomplete data and will be much easier to use at any level, as well as vital for quick forecasting of priority interventions.
GR2017

AIDS mortality, its linkages as a determinant and consequence of food security and its impact on natural resource utilisation by mainly rural populations, has not been well researched, especially their effects on rural livelihoods. With the high epidemic prevalence and persistent food insecurity, natural resources are and will continue to play a key role as a buffer against stresses and shocks in rural livelihoods. Determining linkages between household food security, adult AIDS mortality, and how these affect natural resource utilisation at the village level was the objective of this research. The overarching goal of sustainable natural resource utilisation in Agincourt Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS) was determined through three research questions outlined as follows; What is the status of food security, AIDS mortality and Natural resource utilisation in Agincourt?; What is the relationship between dependence on natural resources as a source of food and or livelihood to resource degradation?; and What are the household and community drivers of household food security? Statistical analysis was used to evaluate the prevalence of food insecurity and the reliance on natural resources while remote sensing was used to assess resource availability and identification of possible natural resource degradation hotspots. More than half of the population in the DSS is food-secure, in 2004, with an even smaller hungry population in 2007. HIV/AIDS and non-HIV/AIDS adult mortality, analysed at village level are underlying drivers and determinants, affecting availability of income which is a direct driver of food insecurity. Availability of income, through social grants, remittances or wages, and delay or non-receipt of this income results in food insecurity in some households. Food production, affected and constrained by climate variability, is a less stable and less popular means of attaining food. More than half of the Agincourt population utilises natural resources to supplement dietary diversity and household income, although there is a significant reduction in households using natural resources in 2007 compared to 2004. Resource degradation is noted in the village commons especially between the highly food-insecure villages and are identified as environmental degradation hot spots. The identification of synergies among these factors in policy design and for interventions is essential for poverty alleviation, improved health and sustainable utilisation of natural resources and rural livelihoods. Glory be to GOD for making this work possible “Commit your work to the Lord and then your plans will succeed” (Proverbs 16:3) “Material poverty doesn‟t necessarily lead to a lack of capacity for creativeness and Inventiveness. Poor people survival by their wits and have much more to contribute to address complex problems than we tend to credit them with.” Dr. Maphela Ramphele (Destiny Magazine, 2010)

This project focuses on the fault observability problem and its impact on plant performance and profitability. The study has been conducted along two main directions. First, a technique has been developed to detect and diagnose faulty situations that could not be observed by previously reported methods. The technique is demonstrated through a subset of faults typically considered for the Tennessee Eastman Process (TEP); which have been found unobservable in all previous studies. The proposed strategy combines the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of the process measurements with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The CUSUM is used to enhance faults under conditions of small fault/signal to noise ratio while the use of PCA facilitates the filtering of noise in the presence of highly correlated data. Multivariate indices, namely, T2 and Q statistics based on the cumulative sums of all available measurements were used for observing these faults. The ARLo.c was proposed as a statistical metric to quantify fault observability. Following the faults detection, the problem of fault isolation is treated. It is shown that for the particular faults considered in the TEP problem, the contribution plots are not able to properly isolate the faults under consideration. This motivates the use of the CUSUM based PCA technique previously used for detection, for unambiguously diagnose the faults. The diagnosis scheme is performed by constructing a family of CUSUM based PCA models corresponding to each fault and then testing whether the statistical thresholds related to a particular faulty model is exceeded or not, hence, indicating occurrence or absence of the corresponding fault. Although the CUSUM based techniques were found successful in detecting abnormal situations as well as isolating the faults, long time intervals were required for both detection and diagnosis. The potential economic impact of these resulting delays motivates the second main objective of this project. More specifically, a methodology to quantify the potential economical loss due to unobserved faults when standard statistical monitoring charts are used is developed. Since most of the chemical and petrochemical plants are operated under closed loop scheme, the interaction of the control is also explicitly considered. An optimization problem is formulated to search for the optimal tradeoff between fault observability and closed loop performance. This optimization problem is solved in the frequency domain by using approximate closed loop transfer function models and in the time domain using a simulation based approach. The optimization in the time domain is applied to the TEP to solve for the optimal tuning parameters of the controllers that minimize an economic cost of the process.

The HIV and AIDS epidemic has remained one of the leading causes of death in the world and has been destructive in Africa with Sub-Saharan Africa remaining the epidemiological locus of the epidemic. HIV and AIDS hinders development by erasing decades of health, economic and social progress, reducing life expectancy by years and deepening poverty [57].The most urgent public-health problem globally is to devise effective strategies to minimize the destruction caused by the HIV and AIDS epidemic. Due to the problems caused by HIV and AIDS, well defined endpoints to evaluate treatment benefits are needed. The surrogate and true endpoints for a disease need to be specified. The purpose of a surrogate endpoint is to draw conclusions about the effect of intervention on true endpoint without having to observe the true endpoint. It is of great importance to understand the surrogate validation methods. At present the question remains as to whether CD4 count and viral load are good surrogate markers for death in HIV or there are some better surrogate markers. This dissertation was undertaken to obtain some clarity on this question by adopting a mathematical model for HIV at immune system level and the impact of treatment in the form of reverse transcriptase inhibitors (RTIs). For an understanding of HIV, the dissertation begins with the description of the human immune system, HIV virion structure, HIV disease progression and HIV drugs. Then a review of an existing mathematical model follows, analyses and simulations of this model are done. These gave an insight into the dynamics of the CD4 count, viral load and HIV therapy. Thereafter surrogate marker validation methods followed. Finally generalized estimating equations (GEEs) approach was used to analyse real data for HIV positive individuals, from the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA). Numerical simulations for the HIV dynamic model with treatment suggest that the higher the treatment efficacy, the lower the infected cells are left in the body. The infected cells are suppressed to a lower threshold value but they do not completely disappear, as long as the treatment is not 100% efficacious. Further numerical simulations suggest that it is advantageous to have a low proportion of infectious virions (ω) at an individual level because the individual would produce few infectious virions to infect healthy cells. Statistical analysis model using GEEs suggest that CD4 count< 200 and viral load are highly associated with death, meaning that they are good surrogate markers for death. An interesting finding from the analysis of this particular data from CAPRISA was that low CD4 count and high viral loads as surrogates for HIV survival act independently/additively. The interaction effect was found to be insignificant. Individual characteristics or factors that were found to be significantly associated with HIV related death are weight, CD4 count< 200 and viral load.
Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2010.

This thesis empirically examines the impact of economic changes on: i. the health of the general Australian population, and ii. the claim incidence experience of the Australian Disability Income Insurance (DII) business. Changes in economic conditions have been captured via movements in the unemployment rate. Changes in health by the following two indicators: a. mortality rate, and b. per capita general physician (GP) visits. In many countries it has been established that short-run cyclical patterns in mortality are associated with economic fluctuations. In Chapter 2, an aggregate state level panel data analysis is used to investigate the general pattern of cyclical mortality in Australia for the period 1985-2008. Employing a fixed effects regression methodology, we show that there is a significant counter-cyclical pattern of mortality (mortality increases during economic contractions) in the general Australian population. Evidence in the literature suggests that the pattern of cyclical mortality experienced in other countries is varied. Drawing from this literature, it is argued that one reason for the observed counter-cyclical mortality in Australia is the relatively high level of social security expenditure. In Chapter 3, a poisson fixed effects analysis shows that, in Australia, over the period 1994-2010, per capita GP visits increase with economic expansions. This may indicate that self-perceived morbidity in Australia is pro-cyclical in nature. At first glance, while this result appears to be in contradiction with counter-cyclical mortality (established in Chapter 2), it is argued that the various financial and psychological factors that cause a reduction in GP visits during economic downturns may be a factor in explaining the increase in mortality observed in Chapter 2. Practitioners of DII commonly believe that DII claims experience is highly correlated with economic movements. In Chapter 4, using claims incidence data from Australian DII business for the period 1986-2001, and a conditional model, it is found that the incidence of claims significantly increases with increasing unemployment, illustrating a counter-cyclical pattern of claims incidence. Moreover, a multinomial logit analysis on cause of claim shows that the probability of a new claim arising from accidents significantly increases with increasing unemployment. The results suggest that the counter-cyclical pattern of claim incidence may stem from increasing claims for minor causes amongst the insured population. Our results are important from the perspective of policy makers and insurance companies. For example, to a policy maker, evidence of counter-cyclical mortality and pro-cyclical GP visits provides insights on the impact of economic changes on health. This may lead to further research in order to isolate the causes of these relationships and quantify the social costs associated with tackling the issues. From the perspective of an insurer, the counter-cyclical patterns of mortality and DII claims may help them to incorporate appropriate premium loadings and capital reserves in anticipation of economic downturns.

Ma Ning.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-57).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.5
Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.11
Chapter 2.1 --- Problems about Using Sibling Samples --- p.19
Chapter 2.2 --- Difficulties with the Within-twin-pair Studies --- p.20
Chapter 3 --- Method --- p.21
Chapter 3.1 --- Omitted Variable Bias (Selection Effect) --- p.21
Chapter 3.1.1 --- OLS Model --- p.21
Chapter 3.1.2 --- Fixed-Effect Model --- p.23
Chapter 3.1.3 --- GLS Model --- p.23
Chapter 3.2 --- Measurement Error --- p.24
Chapter 4 --- Data --- p.26
Chapter 5 --- Results --- p.29
Chapter 5.1 --- "OLS, Fixed-Effect, GLS and IV estimates" --- p.29
Chapter 5.2 --- Important findings --- p.34
Chapter 5.3 --- Further Results --- p.35
Chapter 5.3.1 --- Consistency of Fixed-Effect Estimate --- p.35
Chapter 5.3.2 --- Smoking as an Instrument for Education --- p.39
Chapter 5.3.3 --- Symmetry Test --- p.41
Chapter 5.3.4 --- Hausman Test --- p.44
Chapter 5.3.5 --- Selection Bias --- p.45
Chapter 6 --- Conclusions --- p.48
Chapter 7 --- Bibliography --- p.49

This dissertation examines how matching -- in marriage markets and labor markets -- can change under certain market circumstances and under different information provisions. The first two chapters analyze marriage market, with a particular focus on the impacts of cross-border marriage in marriage markets. Given the severely male-biased sex ratios in many Asian countries including China and India, demands for foreign brides are expected to grow in the near future. In the first chapter, I theoretically investigate the impacts of cross-border marriage on marital patterns and surplus division of couples. I use a frictionless transferable utility matching framework to analyze how cross-border marriage affects matching patterns and marital shares for couples. In the second chapter, I test the model's predictions, focusing on Taiwan (a wealthier side with male biased sex ratios) and Vietnam (a poorer side with balanced sex ratios in the marriage market). I find that cross-border marriages are predominantly made up of Taiwanese men and Vietnamese women; Taiwanese men are selected from the middle level of the socioeconomic status distribution, and Vietnamese women are positively selected. Moreover, cross-border marriage significantly affects men and women who stay in their own countries without engaging in cross-border marriage, by altering marriage rate, matching partners, and intra-household allocations within the households. My results suggest that changes in trade and immigration policies can have far-reaching implications on marital outcomes and women's bargaining power. The third chapter investigates job and jobseeker matching in labor market. Specifically, it explores whether inaccurate expectations of job seekers about their competitiveness contribute to poor job matching in developing countries. We utilize the largest online job portal in the Middle East and North Africa region to evaluate the effect of an intervention providing information about own competitiveness to job applicants. Providing information about the relative fit of an applicant's background for a particular job causes job seekers to apply for jobs that are better matches given their background. The effects of information are the largest among entry-level workers with higher levels of education, who generally face the highest unemployment rates in the region. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that changes over time in demand for skills in the job market may lead to inaccurate expectations that hinder labor market matching. Improving the efficiency of online job search may be particularly welfare-enhancing in the Middle East and North Africa region given that the young, highly-educated subpopulation that faces the greatest labor market hurdles also has the highest level of internet connectedness.

Multilevel models account for different levels of aggregation that may be present in the data. Researchers are sometimes faced with the task of analysing data that are collected at different levels such that attributes about individual cases are provided as well as the attributes of groupings of these individual cases. Data with multilevel structure is common in the social sciences and other fields such as epidemiology. Ignoring hierarchies in data (where they exist) can have damaging consequences to subsequent statistical inference. This study applied multilevel models from frequentist and Bayesian perspectives to the Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey (SDHS) data. The first model fitted to the data was a Bayesian generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) using two estimation techniques: the Integrated Laplace Approximation (INLA) and Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods. The study aimed at identifying determinants of HIV in Swaziland and as well as comparing the different statistical models. The outcome variable of interest in this study is HIV status and it is binary, in all the models fitted the logit link was used. The results of the analysis showed that the INLA estimation approach is superior to the MCMC approach in Bayesian GLMMs in terms of computational speed. The INLA approach produced the results within seconds compared to the many minutes taken by the MCMC methods. There were minimal differences observed between the Bayesian multilevel model and the frequentist multilevel model. A notable difference observed between the Bayesian GLMMs and the the multilevel models is that of differing estimates for cluster effects. In the Bayesian GLMM, the estimates for the cluster effects are larger than the ones from the multilevel models. The inclusion of cluster level variables in the multilevel models reduced the unexplained group level variation. In an attempt to identify key drivers of HIV in Swaziland, this study found that age, age at first sex, marital status and the number of sexual partners one had in the last 12 months are associated with HIV serostatus. Weak between cluster variations were found in both men and women.
Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

In this analysis, I estimate the impact of the changing relative size of the adult male population, classified by age and education groups, on the earnings of employed males living in 502 Brazilian local labor markets during four time periods between 1970 and 2000. The effects of shifts in the age distribution of the working age population have been studied in relation to the effect of the baby-boom generation on the earnings of different cohorts in the United States. However, the question has received little attention in the context of the countries in Asia and Latin America, which are now experiencing substantial shifts in their age-education distributions. Taking advantage of the huge variation across Brazilian local labor markets, the models in this research suggest that age-education groups are not perfect substitutes, so that own-cohort-education size depresses earnings, as expected by the theory. Compositional shifts are influential, attesting that this approach represents a fruitful way of studying this central problem in economic development, going beyond the effects normally analyzed by formal labor market equations.
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This dissertation assesses the effectiveness of the Ugandan Universal Secondary Education policy. It seeks to ascertain whether and to what extent offering free-tuition education at eligible public and private secondary schools has affected gross enrollment rates at the lower secondary school level in Uganda between 2007 and 2015. Using a synthetic control method as well as a linear probability model, I explore the impact of the USE policy on lower secondary school enrollment both at the country and household levels since the policy implementation in 2007 up to 2015. To carry out the analysis, I merge several sources of administrative data, including World Bank education indicators, UNESCO Institute of Statistics data on school participation, Uganda National Bureau of Statistics' annual statistical abstracts and Uganda’s Ministry of Education and Sports’ annual reports into a country-panel dataset for the period of 1992-2015 and use the latter for the synthetic control approach. The linear probability model exploits the data from the 2013 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS). The synthetic control analysis shows no effect of the USE policy at the country level. Instead, the results indicate that during my study period, lower secondary school enrollment rates growth in Uganda was reduced by a yearly average of 8 percentage points compared to its synthetic version. The micro-analysis, however, shows that the receipt of a government subsidy to enroll in lower secondary school had a positive and statistically significant effect ranging from .5 to 9.4 percentage points.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)
Russian demographic statistics reflect the persistence of a dramatically wide gender gap in life expectancy and mortality over the last decades - about twice that found in the developed world. On average, men in Russia live 12 years less than Russian women, and 14.5 years less than men in Western Europe. This thesis provides an overview and synthesis of the most recently available literature that addresses the persistent gender gap in mortality and life expectancy in Russia. I reviewed the prevalent behavioral and social-structural drivers that explain the causes of higher male mortality in contemporary Russia. Especially, I looked at how the conceptualization of the male social role and related norms that shape masculine behavior contribute to high male mortality in Russia. The study reveals that men’s unhealthy, risky behavior and their higher vulnerability to stress are considered to be linked to their gendered social identity which is created and reproduced by the social-structural context of the Russia’s society.

This thesis presents some recent work of the author in developing the analysis of a number of process control models that take into account statistical, economic and other practical issues. Special attention is paid to the problem of optimum selection the initial process mean setting, with particular reference to filling/canning processes. As there are many different situations that involve different cost parameters, this leads to the consideration of various models each with their own particular solution. The effects of change of the process variance on the optimal solution as well as on the expected profit are discussed. Implications to 'Weights and Measures' requirements of following this optimality path are provided, with particular reference to loss in expected profit per item. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction and is followed by a literature review in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 deals with the issue of selecting the optimum process mean by presenting a simple model and emphasising the dependencies between the process parameters. Chapter 4 further investigates the problem presented in Chapter 3 and presents several models for which the selection of the most profitable process setting is considered, concentrating on a canning problem. Various industrial filling processes are described and some of the issues considered include: waste, overfill, top-up, and the penalty costs for items that initially fail to meet specifications. Chapter 5 discusses Weights and Measures requirements in connection with a canning process. Both Australian requirements and OIML International recommendations are discussed. The Australian requirements are also compared with the requirements of the European Economic Community as well as the United States. Chapter 6 illustrates the potential use of the models developed in chapter 4 by giving an industrial example and again discussing the implications to Weights and Measures requirements. In Chapter 7 the problem of an optimal selection of the initial process mean is examined for a process with a linear shift. Special focus is on the economic benefits obtained from reducing process standard deviation and the rate of change of the mean. Conclusions and some suggestions for future work are provided in chapter 8. Parts of chapter 4, 5 and 6 form the contents of a paper, 'Mean Selection for Various Types of Filling Process with Implications to 'Weights and Measures' Requirements', undergoing revision for publication in the Journal of Quality Technology.

The first chapter of this dissertation tests for addiction to food. This is the first empirical study using nationally representative data to do so. Data show that many common foods are addictive, suggesting that prices play a larger role in food consumption than previously thought. The finding of significant addiction also suggests that targeted food taxes may provide effective instruments for reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity. The second chapter of this dissertation investigates the determinants of childhood obesity. This research improves upon previous economic research on the topic by incorporating controls for biological relationships of mothers and fathers and examining the entire child weight distribution using quantile regression. I find evidence of genetic weight transmission though the behavioral influence of mothers appears to be dominant. Furthermore, I find that the commonly cited influences on childhood weight do little to explain the most extreme weights. The third chapter of this dissertation studies the contract choice effect. Though frequently discussed, the impact of changes in insurance contract on utilization in response to a change in the expected cost of care has not been explicitly studied in an empirical setting. The analysis identifies a significantly negative contract choice effect, implying that individuals choose better insurance plans in response to increases in the expected cost of care.
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The relationship between the role of leadership and agricultural cooperatives performance were examined in East, West and South Ethiopia. The hypotheses were tested in a survey of N=162 leaders, managers and directors of primary coffee farmers cooperatives. The results of the test confirmed the overall positive relationship between the role of leadership and agricultural cooperatives performances. This study highlights and gives general view into how the role of leadership can significantly contribute to cooperatives business performances. The results and findings of the analysis indicated that leaders who are most effective at business performances are those who utilize leadership behavior and the skills and trainings required in the cooperatives business organizations. The study encourages further and comprehensive research into the interconnection between the role of leadership, education and skills of leaders, financial management knowledge and decision making competency. The study followed cross-sectional survey design, and employed evaluative quantitative analysis method. The analysis was based on primary data generated through a structured questionnaire distributed to the respondents. Responses to research statements were scaled and converted to analyze the quantitative data of dependent and independent variables based on the role of leadership and associated performance variables. The findings from correlation and multiple regressions in testing the hypotheses showed that there are significant and positive relationship between each of the five independent variables and a dependent variable of business performances. The study concluded that leadership role was very important in cooperatives business performance and, therefore, recommended that leaders of coffee farmers’ cooperatives organizations that wanted to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their businesses performances need to implement the suggestions stated in the recommendation part of this study about the leadership roles.
Business Management
DBL

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)
A sizeable body of research has attempted to examine the interaction between government spending and private giving known as the crowd-out effect. Most researchers reported that increases of government spending cause decreases of philanthropic giving to different types of nonprofits. However, few studies have attempted to indicate the interaction between government welfare expenditures and private giving to human service organizations even though human service organizations are the most sensitive to the changes of government spending. Additionally, the estimated crowd-out effects with a simple crowd-out model have been criticized for potential endogeneity bias. This paper investigates the total effect of federal government welfare spending on state government expenditures and philanthropic giving to human service organizations (known as joint crowd-out). I used the 2005 wave of the Center on Philanthropy Panel Study (COPPS) to estimate the effect of federal human service grants on state government spending on, and donations to human services. From these reduced-form estimates I infer the levels of simple and joint crowd-out. I found that indicate federal spending on public welfare crowds out private giving to human service organizations while holding control variables constant in the donations equation. However, federal government spending on public welfare crowds in state government spending on public welfare.