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Journal articles on the topic 'Monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 6 September 2023

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1

SEETHARAM, K. "Impact of Madden-Julian oscillations on the Indian summer monsoon sub-divisional rainfalls." MAUSAM 59, no. 2 (November 27, 2021): 195–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v59i2.1251.

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Indian summer monsoon rainfall exhibits inter-seasonal variations in the time scales of 2-7 years which are linked to quasi-biennial oscillations and El nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and also intra-seasonal variations in the time-scale of 30-60 days which are linked to activity of MJO which emerged as a dominant mode of intra-seasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in addition to the other modes of low frequency oscillations. In this scenario, the inter and intra seasonal variability of 29 meteorological sub-divisional rainfalls has been investigated by correlating the MJO indices at 10 different longitudes covering Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans with cumulative sub-divisional summer monsoon rainfall (1979 – 2000). The results were discussed.

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SRIVASTAVA, H. N., K. C. SINHARAY, and R. K. MUKHOPADHYAY. "Intra-seasonal oscfffations of radio refractive index during southwest monsoon over India." MAUSAM 44, no. 3 (January 1, 2022): 271–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v44i3.3862.

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The study deals with the spatial and temporal variations of intra-seasonal oscillations in radio refractive index during southwest monsoon season over India and islands over Indian seas. Average daily radio refractive index data from 1 June to 30 September and that of the individual years for the period 1969-1986 were subjected to harmonic analysis to investigate the contributions of various periodicities in monsoon radio refractive index. The inter-annual variability of various intra-seasonal oscillations have been studied for each 5° latitudinal strip from 50 oN to 30° N with the help of variance explained by various frequency modes for different years. Variance explained by 30-60 day and 10-20 day modes were studied in relation to monsoon performance. The northward and eastward propagation of30.60 day mod~ was noticed. The 10.20 day mode and seasonal mode dominate at latitudinal belts 5°N.10oN and 25°N-30°N respectively. Between 10°N and 25°N, both 30-60 day and 10-20 day modes occur.

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3

Kulkarni, Ashwini, Ramesh Kripalani, Sudhir Sabade, and Madhavan Rajeevan. "Role of intra-seasonal oscillations in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall." Climate Dynamics 36, no. 5-6 (January 4, 2011): 1005–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0973-1.

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4

Bhanu Kumar, O. S. R. U., S. Ramalingeswara Rao, S. Ranganathan, and S. S. Raju. "Role of intra-seasonal oscillations on monsoon floods and droughts over India." Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 46, no. 1 (February 2010): 21–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0003-6.

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5

Srivastava, Ankur, Suryachandra ARao, and Subimal Ghosh. "Bay of Bengal upper-ocean stratification and the sub-seasonal variability in convection: Role of rivers in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model." MAUSAM 74, no. 2 (March 29, 2023): 483–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v74i2.6011.

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The Bay of Bengal (BoB) receives a large amount of freshwater from rains and rivers, resulting in large upper-ocean stratification due to the freshening effect. This salinity stratification has been theorized to impact sea-surface temperature (SST) and convection on intra-seasonal time scales by affecting the ocean mixed layer and the barrier layer. This article aims to quantify the impact of salinity stratification on the sub-seasonal variability in SST and convection by using in-situ ocean observations and coupled model experiments. It is shown that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISOs) exhibit varied levels of intra-seasonal variability in SST and rainfall based on the underlying ocean conditions. The largest intra-seasonal variability in SST does not cause the largest convection variability in the north-western BoB. Instead, moderate variability in SST and rainfall associated with MISOs co-occur with deep mixed layer and thick barrier layer conditions. Realistic representation of river freshwater fluxes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model leads to improved intra-seasonal SST and rainfall variability. Thick barrier layers in the north-western Bay attenuates the entrainment cooling of the mixed layer, and the high mixed layer heat content provides conducive oceanic conditions for the genesis of monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS), thereby affecting rainfall over India. This study has important implications for operation forecasting using coupled models.

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Das, D., M. Chakrabarty, S. Goswami, D. Basu, and S. Chaudhuri. "Impact of intra-seasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon on biogeochemical constituents of North Indian Ocean." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 136, no. 3-4 (May 31, 2018): 839–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2518-1.

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7

Sharmila, S., P. A. Pillai, S. Joseph, M. Roxy, R. P. M. Krishna, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, A. K. Sahai, and B. N. Goswami. "Role of ocean–atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO)." Climate Dynamics 41, no. 5-6 (July 12, 2013): 1651–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1854-1.

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8

Hu, Peng, Wen Chen, Shangfeng Chen, and Ruping Huang. "Statistical analysis of the impacts of intra‐seasonal oscillations on the South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 3 (August 29, 2019): 1919–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6284.

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9

Muraleedharan, P. M., P. G. Nisha, P. V. Sathe, and K. U. Sivakumar. "Intra-Seasonal Oscillations Associated with Indian Ocean Warm Pool and Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Their Inter-Annual Variability." Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing 40, no. 1 (June 25, 2011): 75–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12524-011-0135-x.

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10

Singh, Charu, and Panini Dasgupta. "Unraveling the spatio-temporal structure of the atmospheric and oceanic intra-seasonal oscillations during the contrasting monsoon seasons." Atmospheric Research 192 (August 2017): 48–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.03.020.

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11

Chakravarty, Kaustav, Samir Pokhrel, Mahesh Kalshetti, Anish Kumar Muralidharan Nair, Madhu Chandra R. Kalapureddy, Sachin M. Deshpande, Subrata Kumar Das, Govindan Pandithurai, and Bhupendra Nath Goswami. "Unraveling of cloud types during phases of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations by a Ka-band Doppler weather radar." Atmospheric Science Letters 19, no. 9 (September 2018): e847. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.847.

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12

Singh, Charu, Dilip Ganguly, and Puneet Sharma. "Impact of West Asia, Tibetan Plateau and local dust emissions on intra-seasonal oscillations of the South Asian monsoon rainfall." Climate Dynamics 53, no. 11 (September 10, 2019): 6569–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04944-5.

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13

Abhilash, S., R. Mandal, A. Dey, R. Phani, S. Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, S. De, et al. "Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season." Climate Dynamics 51, no. 9-10 (January 30, 2018): 3435–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3.

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14

Mandke, Sujata K., Prasanth A. Pillai, and Atul Kumar Sahai. "Simulation of monsoon intra‐seasonal oscillations in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory models from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project integrations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 13 (March 15, 2020): 5574–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6536.

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15

KHOLE, MEDHA. "Activity of Madden Julian Oscillation during 2002 and 2006 – A comparative analysis." MAUSAM 59, no. 3 (November 27, 2021): 321–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v59i3.1263.

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The Indian summer monsoon is characterized by very significant intra-seasonal variability. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the dominant modes of the intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The activity of Madden Julian Oscillation during the monsoon seasons of the two years of contrasting intra-seasonal rainfall variability has been examined in terms of rainfall activity over India and eastward propagation of convection in the near-equatorial region. The study shows the contrasting nature, viz., in the monsoon season of 2002, eastward mode dominated whereas in 2006, it remained suppressed.

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16

Corvianawatie, Corry. "SEASONAL AND INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN PARI ISLAND-JAKARTA, INDONESIA." Jurnal Kelautan: Indonesian Journal of Marine Science and Technology 12, no. 1 (June 27, 2019): 97. http://dx.doi.org/10.21107/jk.v12i1.5092.

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<p>Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) is one of the most important oceanographic parameter that could affect the marine life, especially coastal ecosystem. SSTs data varies in hourly, daily, seasonal, annual, inter-annual, and even in longer time scales. This condition makes any studies using instantaneous measurement could turn into misleading report due to the lack of time series SSTs data. Thus, the aim of this study is to understand the seasonal and intra-seasonal SSTs dynamics in Pari Island using continuous measurement from temperature logger. This study found that the double peaks of SSTs in May and November are correspond to the period of transitional monsoon. Conversely, the two minimum SSTs in February and August were correspond to the peak of northwest monsoon and southeast monsoon respectively. In addition to seasonal pattern, the slightly dominant intra-seasonal variability of SSTs was found in the period of 57 and 86 days. Those predominant signals suggested represent the Madden-Julian Oscillation phenomena.</p>

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17

Kulkarni, Ashwini, S. S. Sabade, and R. H. Kripalani. "Spatial variability of intra-seasonal oscillations during extreme Indian monsoons." International Journal of Climatology 29, no. 13 (January 5, 2009): 1945–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1844.

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18

WANG, BIN, and LIGUANG WU. "Sub-seasonal variations of the tropical storm track in the western north Pacific." MAUSAM 48, no. 2 (December 15, 2021): 189–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v48i2.3971.

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With 20-year (1975-94) climatological data, we demonstrate that the tropical storm track over the western North Pacific (0° - 40°N, 100 - 180°E) exhibits prominent sub-seasonal variations on a time scale of about 40 days from May to November. The storm track variability is regulated by the conspicuous Climatological Intra Seasonal Oscillation (CISO) in the strength of the western North Pacific summer monsoon and the associated position of the western Pacific Sub-tropical High. The CISO cycle regulates the number of tropical storm formation during the Pre-Onset and Withdraw Cycles but not during the Onset and Peak Monsoon Cycles (from mid-June to mid-September).

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19

Pillai, Prasanth A., and Jasti S. Chowdary. "Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation associated with the developing and decaying phase of El Niño." International Journal of Climatology 36, no. 4 (August 13, 2015): 1846–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4464.

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20

SIKKA, D. R., and SATYABANBISHOYI RATNA. "On improving the ability of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model for dynamical seasonal prediction of the extreme seasons of the Indian summer monsoon." MAUSAM 62, no. 3 (December 14, 2021): 339–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v62i3.313.

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The paper is devoted to examine the ability of a high-resolution National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) T170/L42 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), for exploring its utility for long-range dynamical prediction of seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on 5-members ensemble for the hindcast mode 20-year (1985-2004) period with observed global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as boundary condition and 6-year (2005-2010) period in the forecast-mode with NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) SSTs as boundary condition. ISMR simulations are examined on five day (pentad) rainfall average basis. It is shown that the model simulated ISMR, based on 5-members ensemble average basis had limited skill in simulating extreme ISMR seasons (drought/excess ISMR). However, if the ensemble averaging is restricted to similar ensemble members either in the overall run of pentad-wise below (B) and above (A) normal rainfall events, as determined by the departure for thethreshold value given by coefficient of variability (CV) for the respective pentads based on IMD observed climatology, or during the season as a whole on the basis of percentage anomaly of ISMR from the seasonal climatology, the foreshadowing of drought/excess monsoon seasons improved considerably. Our strategy of improving dynamical seasonal prediction of ISMR was based on the premise that the intra-seasonal variability (ISV) and intra-annual variability (IAV) are intimately connected and characterized by large scale perturbations westward moving (10-20 day) and northward moving (30-60 day) modes of monsoon ISV during the summer monsoon season. As such the cumulative excess of B events in the simulated season would correspond to drought season and vice-versa. The paper also examines El Niño-Monsoon connections of the simulated ISMR series and they appear to have improved considerably in the proposed methodology. This strategy was particularly found to improve for foreshadowing of droughts. Based on results of the study a strategy is proposed for using the matched signal for simulated ISMR based on excess B over A events and vice-versa for drought or excess ISMR category. The probability distribution for the forecast seasonal ISMR on category basis is also proposed to be based on the relative ratio of similar ensemble members and total ensembles on percentage basis. The paper also discusses that extreme monsoon season are produced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes in a combined manner and hence stresses to improve prediction of IOD mode in ocean-atmosphere coupled model just as it has happened for the prediction ENSO mode six to nine months in advance.

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21

Joseph, P. V., Anu Simon, Venu G. Nair, and Aype Thomas. "Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) of south Kerala rainfall during the summer monsoons of 1901–1995." Journal of Earth System Science 113, no. 2 (June 2004): 139–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02709784.

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22

Hu, Wenting, Anmin Duan, and Bian He. "Evaluation of intra-seasonal oscillation simulations in IPCC AR5 coupled GCMs associated with the Asian summer monsoon." International Journal of Climatology 37 (March 16, 2017): 476–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5016.

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23

Di Capua, Giorgia, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou. "Dominant patterns of interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes in boreal summer: causal relationships and the role of timescales." Weather and Climate Dynamics 1, no. 2 (October 15, 2020): 519–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020.

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Abstract. Tropical convective activity represents a source of predictability for mid-latitude weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In winter, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of predictability in the tropics and extratropics, but its role in summer is much less pronounced and the exact teleconnection pathways are not well understood. Here, we assess how tropical convection interacts with mid-latitude summer circulation at different intra-seasonal timescales and how ENSO affects these interactions. First, we apply maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between tropical convective activity and mid-latitude geopotential height fields to identify the dominant modes of interaction. The first MCA mode connects the South Asian monsoon with the mid-latitude circumglobal teleconnection pattern. The second MCA mode connects the western North Pacific summer monsoon in the tropics with a wave-5 pattern centred over the North Pacific High in the mid-latitudes. We show that the MCA patterns are fairly insensitive to the selected intra-seasonal timescale from weekly to 4-weekly data. To study the potential causal interdependencies between these modes and with other atmospheric fields, we apply the causal discovery method PCMCI at different timescales. PCMCI extends standard correlation analysis by removing the confounding effects of autocorrelation, indirect links and common drivers. In general, there is a two-way causal interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes, but the strength and sometimes sign of the causal link are timescale dependent. We introduce causal maps that show the regionally specific causal effect from each MCA mode. Those maps confirm the dominant patterns of interaction and in addition highlight specific mid-latitude regions that are most strongly connected to tropical convection. In general, the identified causal teleconnection patterns are only mildly affected by ENSO and the tropical mid-latitude linkages remain similar. Still, La Niña strengthens the South Asian monsoon generating a stronger response in the mid-latitudes, while during El Niño years the Pacific pattern is reinforced. This study paves the way for process-based validation of boreal summer teleconnections in (sub-)seasonal forecast models and climate models and therefore works towards improved sub-seasonal predictions and climate projections.

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24

Li, Kuiping, Zhi Li, Yang Yang, Baoqiang Xiang, Yanliang Liu, and Weidong Yu. "Strong modulations on the Bay of Bengal monsoon onset vortex by the first northward-propagating intra-seasonal oscillation." Climate Dynamics 47, no. 1-2 (September 5, 2015): 107–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2826-4.

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25

Kusfirdianti, Firda, and Joko Wiratmo. "Rainfall Prediction Due to the Madden Julian Oscillation Factor at the Equator." Proceedings of Malikussaleh International Conference on Multidisciplinary Studies (MICoMS) 3 (January 27, 2023): 00066. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/micoms.v3i.231.

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In this research, the process of spectral analysis (Fast Fourier Transform) was carried out as a step to find out the phenomena that affect rainfall in the equatorial region which are represented by the cities of Kototabang, Pontianak, Gorontalo and Biak. This is followed by predicting rainfall due to the MJO phenomenon, which is obtained after performing a Bandpass Filter with a cut off of 30 and 90 days on rainfall time series data and the Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT), using the ARIMA method. The results showed that the study area under study generally had an equatorial rainfall pattern type. This rainfall is dominantly influenced by annual (monsoon) and semi-annual (ITCZ) phenomena. There is an intra-seasonal phenomenon (MJO) although it does not have a big impact on rainfall. ARIMA provides fairly good rainfall prediction results for a short period of time. Monthly rainfall predictions show values below 90 mm, with the lowest predicted rainfall occurring in January in Gorontalo (42.57 mm), and the highest in February in Biak (86.83 mm).

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26

Wu, Guoxiong, Anmin Duan, Yimin Liu, Jiangyu Mao, Rongcai Ren, Qing Bao, Bian He, Boqi Liu, and Wenting Hu. "Tibetan Plateau climate dynamics: recent research progress and outlook." National Science Review 2, no. 1 (August 1, 2014): 100–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwu045.

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Abstract This paper reviews progress in the study of Tibetan Plateau (TP) climate dynamics over the past decade. Several theoretical frameworks, including thermal adaptation and the TP sensible heat (SH) driving air-pump, have been developed to identify the mechanisms responsible for the circulation anomaly produced by thermal forcing of the TP. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the thermal effects of large-scale orography, including the Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus (TIP), are crucial for the formation of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoons (SASM) because the surface SH of the TIP is the major driver of the water vapor transport required for the genesis of the north branch of the SASM. The large-scale orography of the TP affects the Asian climate through thermal forcing in spring and summer, and mechanical forcing in winter. The TP forcing can also influence the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) onset over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) by enhancing the BOB warm pool at the surface and by modulating the South Asian High (SAH) in the upper troposphere. On intra-seasonal timescales, the TP thermal forcing significantly modulates spring rainfall in southern China and generates the biweekly oscillation of the SAH in summer. Despite climate warming, the atmospheric heat source over the TP, particularly the spring SH, exhibits a clear weakening trend from the 1980s to 2000s. This weakening of the spring SH contributed to the anomalous ‘dry in the north’ and ‘wet in the south’ rainfall pattern observed over East China. Also discussed are challenges to further understanding the mechanism of TP forcing on the multi-scale variability of the ASM.

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Amador, Jorge A., A. M. Durán-Quesada, E. R. Rivera, G. Mora, F. Sáenz, B. Calderón, and N. Mora. "The easternmost tropical Pacific. Part II: Seasonal and intraseasonal modes of atmospheric variability." Revista de Biología Tropical 64, no. 1 (March 2, 2016): 23. http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/rbt.v64i1.23409.

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<p>This is Part II of a two-part review about climate and climate variability focused on the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) and the Caribbean Sea (CS). Both parts are aimed at providing oceanographers, marine biologists, and other ocean scientists, a guiding base for ocean-atmosphere interaction processes affecting the CS, the ETP, and the waters of Isla del Coco. Isla del Coco National Park is a Costa Rican World Heritage site. Part I analyzed the mean fields for both basins and a larger region covering 25º S - 35º N, 20º W - 130º W. Here we focus on a smaller area (65º W - 95º W, 0º - 20º N), as a complement to Part 1. Incoming solar radiation and surface energy fluxes reveal the complex nature of the ETP and CS for convective activity and precipitation on seasonal and intraseasonal time scales. Both regions are relevant as sources of evaporation and the associated moisture transport processes. The American Monsoon System influences the climate and climate variability of the ETP and CS, however, the precise way systems affect regional precipitation and transport of moisture, within the Intra Americas Sea (IAS) are not clear. Although the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) is known to act as a conveyor belt for moisture transport, intraseasonal and seasonal modes of the CLLJ and their interactions with other IAS systems, have to be further investigated. Trans-isthmic jets, exert a variable seasonal wind stress force over the ocean surface co-generating regions of great marine productivity. Isolated convection, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the hurricane season, the Mid-Summer Drought, the seasonal and intraseasonal behavior of low-level jets and their interactions with transients, and the southward incursion of cold fronts contribute to regional seasonal precipitation. Many large-scale systems, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, also influence the variability of precipitation by modulating regional features associated with convection and precipitation. Monthly tropical storm (TS) activity in the CS and ETP basins is restricted to the period May-November, with very few cases in December. The CS presents TS peak activity during August, as well as for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, in contrast to the ETP that shows the same features during September.</p><div> </div>

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Sengupta, Saikat, Sourendra Kumar Bhattacharya, Anant Parekh, S. S. Nimya, Kei Yoshimura, and Anindya Sarkar. "Signatures of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation and stratiform process in rain isotope variability in northern Bay of Bengal and their simulation by isotope enabled general circulation model." Climate Dynamics 55, no. 5-6 (July 3, 2020): 1649–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05344-w.

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29

Singh, Charu. "Intra-seasonal oscillations of South Asian summer monsoon in coupled climate model cohort CMIP6." Climate Dynamics, May 19, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06323-z.

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30

Saha, Prolay, Rahul Mahanta, P. V. Rajesh, and B. N. Goswami. "Persistent Wet and Dry Spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Reexamination of Definitions of 'Active' and 'Break' Events." Journal of Climate, September 26, 2022, 1–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-1003.1.

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Abstract Persisting Wet Events (PWEs) and Persisting Dry Events (PDEs) over the Central India (CI) as defined by rain spells lasting for 5-days or more, above (below) climatology represent an important component of the Indian Summer Monsoon's intraseasonal variability. However, half of such PREs and PDEs that do not overlap with conventionally defined ‘active’ and ‘break’ spells over Central India (CI) while contributing about 20% to the seasonal mean remained poorly studied. Here we find that, in contrast to more abundant longer (> 5-days) wet and dry spells over the CI, the intra-seasonal rainfall variability over the Northeast India (NEI) is characterized by higher abundance of intense shorter spells (<5 days). Physically, the difference is linked to the fact that Monsoon Intra-seasonal Oscillations with a 30-60 day time scale dominate sub-seasonal variability over the CI, whereas the 10-20 day Quasi-biweekly Mode dominates sub-seasonal variability over the NEI. While non-overlapping PDEs are associated with large-scale but lower intensity 'breaks,' non-overlapping PWEs are associated with synoptic events with relatively smaller spatial scales rather than large-scale 'active' events. Here, a percentile-based definition of 'active' and 'break' spells as daily rainfall in excess (below) 90 (30) percentile persisting for more than 3-days is proposed that encompasses almost all non-overlapping PWEs and PDEs and is expected to be more useful to the users. Contributions of the sub-seasonal fluctuations to the seasonal mean and their association with predictable drivers indicate that the seasonal mean rainfall over the NEI is significantly less predictable than that over the CI.

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Nikumbh, Akshaya C., Arindam Chakraborty, G. S. Bhat, and Dargan M. W. Frierson. "Multiscale interactions between monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations and low pressure systems that produce heavy rainfall events of different spatial extents." Journal of Climate, September 21, 2021, 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0231.1.

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AbstractThe sub-seasonal and synoptic-scale variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall are controlled primarily by monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) and low pressure systems (LPS), respectively. The positive and negative phases of MISO lead to alternate epochs of above-normal (active) and below-normal (break) spells of rainfall. LPSs are embedded within the different phases of MISO and are known to produce heavy precipitation events over central India. Whether the interaction with the MISO phases modulates the precipitation response of LPSs, and thereby the characteristics of extreme rainfall events (EREs) remains unaddressed in the available literature. In this study, we analyze the LPSs that produce EREs of various spatial extents viz., Small, Medium, and Large over central India from 1979 to 2012. We also compare them with the LPSs that pass through central India and do not give any ERE (LPS-noex). We find that thermodynamic characteristics of LPSs that trigger different spatial extents of EREs are similar. However, they show differences in their dynamic characteristics. The ERE producing LPSs are slower, moister and more intense than LPS-noex. The LPSs that lead to Medium and Large EREs tend to occur during the positive phase of MISO when an active monsoon trough is present over central India. On the other hand, LPS-noex and the LPSs that trigger Small EREs occur mainly during the neutral or negative phases of the MISO. The large-scale dynamic forcing, intensification of LPSs, and diabatic generation of low-level potential vorticity due to the presence of active monsoon trough help in the organization of convection and lead to Medium and Large EREs. On the other hand, the LPSs that form during the negative or neutral phases of MISO do not intensify much during their lifetime and trigger scattered convection, leading to EREs of small size.

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Thakur, Manoj Kumar, T. V. Lakshmi Kumar, K. Koteswara Rao, Humberto Barbosa, and V. Brahmananda Rao. "A new perspective in understanding rainfall from satellites over a complex topographic region of India." Scientific Reports 9, no. 1 (October 30, 2019). http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52075-y.

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Abstract Present study focuses on rainfall over Western Ghats (WG), a complex topographic region (elevation > 500 m) of India to evaluate and to better understand the satellite behavior in contrast with a flat region (FR) (elevation < 500 m) of central India from 1998 to 2016 using the combinatory data sets of TMPA and IMERG (satellite rainfall estimation). The categorical Intra Seasonal Oscillations (ISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) namely, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Quasi Bi-Weekly Oscillation (QBWO) are tested in satellite and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data sets to find out the satellite performance. As the accurate estimation of rainfall from satellites over higher elevation zones is challenging, here we propose a new perspective to select the rainfall products of satellite for better comparison with ground measurements. Considering the satellite’s best capability in detecting the cold clouds resulting from deep convection and its coupling with higher-level circulation, we show that the rainfall from satellites yield fruitful comparison with ground measurements when moist static stability, tropical easterly jet is above the climatological values.

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Straus, David M. "Preferred intra-seasonal circulation patterns of the Indian summer monsoon and active-break cycles." Climate Dynamics, December 2, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06047-6.

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AbstractIntra-Seasonal circulation regimes are identified from a cluster analysis of 5-day mean anomaly fields of 850 hPa horizontal winds from the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the boreal summer season (June–Sept. for 1979–2018) over the region (50°–100° E; 5° S–35° N). The k-means method was applied to the leading 6 principal components yielding k clusters. The degree of clustering is significant compared to synthetic data sets for any value of $$k > 3$$ k > 3 . The circulation is most likely to stay in the same cluster from one pentad to the next; significant transitions (with 95% confidence level) form a cycle. The similarity between the cycle depicted from 4 or 5 clusters and the active-break cycle, as well as the 45-day oscillation, is established by composites of 850 hPa winds, 200 hPa divergence, 500 hPa vorticity and vertical pressure velocity, precipitable water, diabatic heating and rainfall over India: Strong convection over the subtropical Indian Ocean moves to the central Bay of Bengal and central India, subsequently to the northern Bay of Bengal and west Bengal, and then further north into the Himalayas. We also find preferred transitions in which the convection moves equatorward from central India. The number of complete cycles found in 40 summers is 7 in the 4-cluster analysis. The number of times the system undergoes four (three) consecutive legs of the cycle is 16 (31). For 5 clusters only 3 complete cycles are found. sequences of five, four and three consecutive legs occur 10, 11 and 28 times, respectively.

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Wang, Xuejie, Lide Tian, Hongming Yan, Jiangyu Mao, Zhongyin Cai, Di Wang, Yiliang Cheng, and Feng Liu. "The intra‐seasonal oscillation of precipitation δ¹⁸O over the Asian equatorial and monsoon regions." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, June 19, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023jd038869.

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Ma, Tianjiao, and Wen Chen. "Recent progress in understanding the interaction between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon: A review." Frontiers in Earth Science 11 (January 20, 2023). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1098517.

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This paper reviews recent advances in understanding the interaction between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The achievements are summarized into two aspects: 1) the impacts of ENSO on the EAWM, and 2) effects of the EAWM on ENSO. For the first aspect, the results show that: the current climate model simulations of ENSO impacts on the EAWM have a common weaker bias than in the observations; The influence of central Pacific type ENSO on the EAWM is generally weaker than that of the eastern Pacific type ENSO; The precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean tend to contribute to the intra-seasonal transition of ENSO teleconnection over East Asia; The ENSO-EAWM relationship is unstable and subject to non-linear modulation by the state of oceans and extratropical atmospheric phenomena, which include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Regarding the second aspect, studies have shown that the “pure” EAWM (denoted as EAWMres), which is independent of the ENSO signal, can lead to significant variations in the tropical convection over the western Pacific, the local Hadley circulation over East Asia, and the Walker circulation over the equatorial latitudes; The CMIP6 models can preproduce the above EAWMres effects well, although with some weaker bias. The changes in tropical convection and extratropical zonal flow associated with the EAWMres tend to have a significant modulating effect on the ENSO atmospheric teleconnection over North America. A strong EAWM and a strong Australian summer monsoon coherently provide favorable conditions for the onset of El Niño.

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"PREFACE." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 893, no. 1 (November 1, 2021): 011001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/011001.

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The seasonal atmospheric condition over the Maritime Continent is mainly driven by the Asian-Australian Monsoon. Precipitation over the Maritime Continent is highly influenced by the intra-seasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), also highly affected by the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD). At an interannual time scale the Maritime Continent is also crossed by Indonesia Through Flow (ITF), as the artery connecting Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, and acting as a crucial link of the ocean general circulation that affects not only properties of these two oceans but also global climate. This complex mixture of land and sea interaction, with various atmospheric and oceanic phenomena within, makes the Maritime Continent as a unique, enigmatic and challenging area for scientific endeavor on tropical meteorology and atmospheric sciences. Various observations and research have been coordinated, campaigned, and conducted to better understand the atmospheric and oceanic condition over the tropics, especially the Maritime Continent. Many scientific discoveries have been found to enrich the knowledge of atmospheric science on the tropics, from the International Winter Monsoon Experiment in 1978, TOGA COARE in 1993, HARIMAU that ended in 2010, to CINDY/DYNAMO in 2011. The recent Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) during 2017 - 2020 aimed to improve understanding and prediction local multi-scale variability of the Maritime Continent weather-climate system and its global impact through observations and modelling exercises, was the state-of-art for such coordinated research on the tropics. As a part of YMC program, BMKG will also be involved in Measurements and Modelling of the Indonesian Throughflow International Experiment (MINTIE) which is collaborative research among countries including Indonesia BMKG and being led by Columbia University during 2019 – 2024. LIST OF Committee, Steering Committee, Organizing Committee Leader, Leader, Secretariat & Public Relations, Treasure, Event are available in this pdf.

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Pradhan, Maheswar, Suryachandra A. Rao, Amitabh Bhattacharya, and Sridhar Balasubramanian. "Improvements in Diurnal Cycle and Its Impact on Seasonal Mean by Incorporating COARE Flux Algorithm in CFS." Frontiers in Climate 3 (February 2, 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.792980.

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The variability of predicted variables at daily to seasonal scales in coupled models is primarily governed by surface boundary conditions between the ocean and atmosphere, namely, sea surface temperature (SST), turbulent heat, and momentum fluxes. Although efforts have been made to achieve good accuracy in surface fluxes and SST in observation and reanalysis products, less attention has been paid toward achieving improved accuracy in coupled model simulations. Improper diurnal phase and amplitude in intra-daily SST and precipitation are well-known problems in most global coupled general circulation models, including the Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) model. The present study attempts to improve the representation of ocean-atmosphere surface boundary conditions in CFSv2, primarily used for India's operational forecasts at different temporal/spatial scales. In this direction, the diurnal warm layer and cool skin temperature correction scheme are implemented along with the surface flux parameterization scheme following Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) v 3.0. The coupled model re-forecasts with a revised flux scheme showed better characteristics in various ocean-atmosphere parameters and processes at diurnal and seasonal time scales. At the diurnal scale, the phase and amplitude of intra-daily SST and mixed layer depth variabilities are improved over most tropical oceans. Improved diurnal SSTs helped in enhancing the diurnal range of precipitation by triggering stronger intra-daily convection. The corrected diurnal ocean-atmospheric boundary state translated into a reduction in seasonal mean dry bias over Indian landmass and the wet bias over tropical oceans. Better simulation of non-linearity associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), and IOD-ISMR relation is among the most critical improvements achieved by revising the turbulent flux parameterization. The revised flux scheme showed enhanced prediction skills for tropical SST indices and ISMR.

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HagosP, Samson, L. Ruby LeungP, Oluwayemi Garuba, and Christina M. Patricola. "Influence of Background Divergent Moisture Flux on the Frequency of North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers." Journal of Climate, May 7, 2021, 1–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0058.1.

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AbstractThe frequency of North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs) affects water supply and flood risk over western North America. Thus, understanding factors that affect the variability of landfalling AR frequency is of scientific and societal importance. This study aims at identifying the sources of the moisture for North Pacific ARs and assessing how different modes of variability modulate these sources. To this end, the sources and variability of the background divergent component of the integrated moisture flux (DIVT) in ARs are identified using MERRA reanalysis. It is shown that in the boreal winter, this background DIVT in ARs is related to the outflow from the subsidence over the subtropics which transports moisture northward, while in summer it is related to the Asian monsoon and it transports moisture northwestward. This leads to a seasonal northwest/southeast movement of the AR frequency climatology. At the intra-seasonal scale, propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation introduces an anti-clockwise rotation of the background DIVT, with northward transport in phases 1 and 2, westward in 3 and 4, southward in 5 and 6 and eastward in 7 and 8, making landfall over the west coast of North America most likely during the last two phases. Similarly, El Niño Southern Oscillation variability also affects the frequency of ARs through modulation of the westerly background DIVT, favoring landfall over the US west coast during strong El Niño phases. It is shown that in general the likelihood of AR landfall over the western US is correlated with the zonal background DIVT over northeastern Pacific.

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Qin, Xinlong, Long Wang, Xuehui Li, Hang Yu, Kui Wang, and Defang Fan. "Regional Characteristics of Precipitation in the Nanpan River Basin, China." Frontiers in Environmental Science 9 (January 21, 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.783515.

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Nanpan River is the source of the Pearl River in China, and thus, the exploitation of water resources in the Nanpan River Basin directly affects development in its middle and lower reaches. In the present study, the availability of water resources in the Nanpan River Basin and their differences were investigated. Sixteen statistical variables including the 25th and 75th percentiles, the coefficient of variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation and the annual precipitation concentration index were examined using monthly precipitation data collected in 33 stations in the Nanpan River Basin from 1956 to 2016. This paper studies the relationship between the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and the distance between stations, and uses principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis to identify the homogeneous precipitation regions in the Nanpan River Basin. The results reveal the following: 1) The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients for the monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of the stations exhibit negative correlations with the interstation distance; the stronger the spatial correlation between both parameters, the shorter the time scale. 2) The factors controlling the spatial patterns of precipitation in the basin are its interannual and intra-annual variations. 3) Precipitation for the Nanpan River Basin produce two homogenous regions, which are associated with the influences of the South Asian monsoon, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the South Branch Trough. The first region is mainly to the east of longitude 104°E, while the second is principally to the west.

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Chiu, Yen-Chao, and Fang-Ching Chien. "Long-term Trends and Interannual Variability of Southwesterly Flows around Southern Taiwan during 44 Mei-yu Seasons." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, July 31, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-23-0029.1.

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Abstract This study investigates the characteristics and long-term trends of southwesterly flows around southern Taiwan (hereafter, SWs) during mei-yu seasons (15 May–15 June) from 1979 to 2022. The results show that the occurrence number of SWs in general exhibited an increasing trend over this 44-year period, with a decadal oscillation starting from a relatively small number in the 1980s and reaching a relative peak in the 2000s. This tendency posts a potential threat to Taiwan due to the increasing trend of heavy rainfall associated with higher moisture flux of the SWs events. The SWs activity was influenced by the long-term increasing trend of geopotential height gradients and their decadal variability near Taiwan. When the intra-seasonal oscillation was evident, the weather system mainly affecting the occurrence of SWs was the low pressure system to the north of Taiwan; when it was weak, the intensity and location of the western North Pacific subtropical high to the south of Taiwan was relatively more important. In addition, the SWs index which was highly correlated with the precipitation during mei-yu seasons can effectively reflect the interannual variability of precipitation in Taiwan in periods of different lengths. These findings indicate that the SWs index can be used as a monsoonal precipitation index for Taiwan, especially southern Taiwan.

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Dong, Wei, Liang Zhao, Wei Cheng, Chunyan Guo, Xinyong Shen, and Haoxin Yao. "Inconsistent trends between early and late winters in extreme cold events in China from 1980 to 2021." Frontiers in Environmental Science 10 (August 10, 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.923228.

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Understanding intra-seasonal variation in extreme cold events (ECEs) has important implications for climate prediction and climate adaptation. However, the ECEs difference between early (from December 1 to January 15) and late (from January 16 to February 28) winters is a lack of sufficient understanding. Herein, we investigated the trends of ECEs over eastern China in early and late winters. Results showed that the number of days with ECEs had a faster and uniformly decreasing trend in late winter over eastern China, whereas the decreasing trend in early winter was not significant because of the dipole pattern with an increase of ECEs in northeast China and a decrease of ECEs in southeast China during the time period 1980–2021. This denoted that China was presenting a pattern of “cold early winter–warm late winter”. The feature of cold early winter was related to a significant increase in high-latitude blocking highs extending poleward and reaching the Arctic Circle in early winter during the last 20 years. In particular, there was a large-scale tilted high ridge from the Ural Mountains to northern Asia, which favored the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation. This, in turn, led to a strong Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Strong cold advection related to the circulation anomalies caused an ECEs increase in northeast China and dominated the change in temperature over eastern China in early winter. By contrast, the decrease in ECEs in late winter in the last 20 years was more related to the interdecadal enhancement of the anticyclonic anomaly over the north Pacific (NPAC). The strong NPAC extended to East Asia in a zonal direction, causing strong warm anomalies in eastern China through warm advection and diabatic heating, which weakened the northerly and prevented the East Asian trough from moving south, resulting in a warmer East Asia and a uniform decrease in late winter.

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