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Khieu, Hoang Van. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: empirical evidence from Vietnam." Fulbright Review of Economics and Policy 1, no. 1 (August 11, 2021): 61–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/frep-05-2021-0030.
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PurposeThis paper aims to uncover the nexus between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam in the period 1995–2012.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a structural vector auto-regressive model of five endogenous variables including inflation, real GDP growth, budget deficit growth, money growth and the interest rate.FindingsIt is found that inflation rose in response to positive shocks to money growth and that budget deficits had no significant impact on money growth and therefore inflation. This empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent. Money growth significantly decreased in response to a positive shock to inflation; interest rates had no significant effect on inflation but considerably increased in response to positive inflation shocks. This implies that the monetary base was more effective than interest rates in fighting inflation.Originality/valueThis paper sheds light into understanding the link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam during the high-inflation period 1995–2012. The finding supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent over the period.
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Sahu, Tarak Nath, and Krishna Dayal Pandey. "Money Supply and Equity Price Movements During the Liberalized Period in India." Global Business Review 21, no. 1 (March 22, 2018): 108–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972150918761084.
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This study attempts to contribute towards the prevalent understanding and the extant literatures on the effect of changes in money supply as an important monetary policy shock on the stock prices of India by using a time-varying parameter models with vector autoregressive specification during the period 1996 to 2016. The result of Johansen’s cointegration test suggests a significantly positive long-run co-movement between the growth of money supply and stock prices in India but the result of vector error correction model (VECM) does not exhibit any significant relationship in short run. Further, the error correction term of the VECM reveals a long-run unidirectional causality from money supply to stock prices. However, the Granger causality test confirms that the growth rate of money supply does not cause the stock market movement in India in short run. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis reveals that both the Indian stock markets are strongly exogenous in the sense that shocks to money supply explain only a small portion of the forecast variance error of the market indices. Again, the impulse response function analysis indicates that a positive shock in money supply has a small but persistently positive effect on stock prices in India.
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Duguay, Pierre. "Bref aperçu d’un modèle à forme réduite de prévision de la dépense nationale brute au Canada." Articles 55, no. 3 (June 22, 2009): 411–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/800838ar.
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This paper presents a critical evaluation of a St-Louis type monetarist reduced-form model for Canada. The model centres on two equations estimated over the 1957-1977 sample period. An expenditure equation relates the growth of nominal GNE to the rate of monetary expansion and to changes in autonomous expenditure. The split between real growth and inflation is modelled through a simple Phillips curve with adaptive expectations. The dynamic properties of the model are discussed, and illustrated with simulations of alternative monetary growth paths. The analysis reveals some disturbing characteristics of this type of model. For instance, the responses of GNE to money supply changes or to price shocks are not symmetrical though both represent the same shock to real money supply. The price response to a monetary shock, while more plausible than in most large macroeconomic models, remains inadequate since increased monetary expansion results in higher real money supply accompanying higher inflation. The author nevertheless leaves the impression that reduced form models are a useful starting point for econometric research; their limitations are only an invitation to further refinements.
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Hu, Weigang, Yan Zhou, and Jun Liu. "Evaluation of Hot Money Drivers in China: A Structural VAR Approach." Complexity 2022 (July 4, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1066096.
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This paper investigates the drivers of hot money in China. It develops a model based on expectation-variance utility theory in the theoretical analysis section. The model considers a foreign investor who faces the question of how to distribute his wealth between foreign and domestic assets. The model’s analysis suggests that economic variations, such as expected domestic currency appreciation, rise in domestic asset return, drop in foreign asset return, domestic economic growth, decrease in domestic inflation, and rise in foreign asset risk will cause foreign investors to distribute more wealth in domestic assets. Therefore, hot money flows in, and vice versa. In the empirical analysis section, the paper estimates structural VAR models using data from 2000 to 2019 in China. The impulse response functions are consistent with the theoretical predictions: when there is a positive domestic inflation shock, hot money outflows increase (inflows decline) in the current period, but the response is not significant. When there is a positive domestic growth rate shock or positive domestic asset return rate shock, hot money inflows increase (outflows decline) in the current period, and the response reaches its peak in the next period. Furthermore, when there is a positive expected exchange rate shock, hot money outflows increase (inflows decline) in the current period. Of these drivers, the expected exchange rate has the largest impact on hot money, and the domestic growth rate has the most enduring effect.
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Keating, John W. "Implications of Endogenous Money Growth for Some Tests of Superneutrality and the Fisher Effect." Economia 45, no. 89 (August 1, 2022): 24–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.002.
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Superneutrality of money and the Fisher Effect are well-known theoretical propositions. Empirical tests of long-run versions of these hypotheses have sometimes been done by estimating how a variable responds to a permanent shock to inflation. Substituting inflation for money growth in a test for superneutrality is motivated by the widely-accepted Monetarist precept that “inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” Use of permanent shocks to inflation and money growth for testing such hypotheses has declined, in part because permanent movements in these variables have an endogenous component and so estimates are biased. But the sign of the bias may be determined using credible qualitative assumptions about the effects of structural shocks on variables. These results are used to re-examine multi-country findings from two di˙erent structural VAR models that estimate the effects of permanent inflation shocks. One finding is rejection of superneutrality for output in favor of a long-run positive output effect from permanently higher money growth. The second is rejection of the Fisher Effect in favor of nominal rates moving less than one-for-one in the long run with inflation. Both rejections are shown to be robust to endogenous money growth bias under a wide range of plausible structural assumptions. These results for real interest rates and output provide evidence in support of structural models which give rise to a Mundell-Tobin effect.
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BESSO, Christophe Raoul, and Erick Patrick FEUBI PAMEN. "OIL PRICE SHOCK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPERIENCE OF CEMAC COUNTRIES." Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields 8, no. 1 (June 30, 2017): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v8.1(15).01.
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The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of oil shocks on the growth rate of Growth Domestic Product (GDP) in CEMAC countries. We use a panel VAR model approach to the variation of the real GDP growth rate, oil price inflation rate and money supply between 2000 and 2015. Our main results show that CEMAC countries mostly depend on oil pension. Consequently, the analysis of impulsion response functions and the decomposition of variance show that, the shock on oil price negatively affects the growth rate of the GDP. We then suggest CEMAC countries to diversify their production, the destination of their exports and the sources of budgetary income or takings.
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Patel, Deeviya, and Gisele Mah. "Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: the case of South Africa." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 10, no. 1(J) (March 15, 2018): 146–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v10i1(j).2098.
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The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth in South Africa. Using time series data, the period from 1980 to 2015 was covered in the study. Data was collected from the South African Reserve Bank, the International Monetary Fund and International Financial Statistics. The Johansen cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model estimation techniques were employed in the study, followed by VEC Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response function. The long-run results revealed a negative and significant relationship between real exchange rate with export and economic growth. On the other hand, money supply and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant relationship with real exchange rate. Only export was significant and positively related to real exchange rate in the short-run. Results of granger causality showed that only export granger causes real exchange rate thus, a unidirectional causality exists between export and real exchange rate. Results of variance decomposition revealed that the real exchange rate is highly affected by shocks from economic growth. The impulse response functions showed that real exchange rate responds positively to shocks from real exchange rate and money supply. On the contrary, real exchange rate responds negatively to a shock from economic growth. There is, therefore, a need to increase exports, money supply, foreign direct investment and economic growth as these would lead to an increase in the Rand and consequently, appreciation of the Rand.
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Patel, Deeviya, and Gisele Mah. "Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: the case of South Africa." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 10, no. 1 (March 15, 2018): 146. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v10i1.2098.
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The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth in South Africa. Using time series data, the period from 1980 to 2015 was covered in the study. Data was collected from the South African Reserve Bank, the International Monetary Fund and International Financial Statistics. The Johansen cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model estimation techniques were employed in the study, followed by VEC Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response function. The long-run results revealed a negative and significant relationship between real exchange rate with export and economic growth. On the other hand, money supply and foreign direct investment have a positive and significant relationship with real exchange rate. Only export was significant and positively related to real exchange rate in the short-run. Results of granger causality showed that only export granger causes real exchange rate thus, a unidirectional causality exists between export and real exchange rate. Results of variance decomposition revealed that the real exchange rate is highly affected by shocks from economic growth. The impulse response functions showed that real exchange rate responds positively to shocks from real exchange rate and money supply. On the contrary, real exchange rate responds negatively to a shock from economic growth. There is, therefore, a need to increase exports, money supply, foreign direct investment and economic growth as these would lead to an increase in the Rand and consequently, appreciation of the Rand.
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Permata, Meily Ika, Ibrahim Ibrahim, and Hidayah Dhini Ari. "DOES FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ABSORB OR AMPLIFY THE SHOCK?" Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 2 (January 30, 2012): 107–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i2.81.
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This paper analyzes the role of financial development on economic output in Indonesia. Using vector autoregressive method, the results confirm the positive impact of financial development on output growth. The interaction between the financial development and the shock either in financial or real sector shows that the financial development has a positive role to dampen the negative impact of the shock on the output growth, while strengthen the positive one. Another variable on the model, which significantly affect the output growth are excess money, term of trade, and the price. Compare to these variables, the marginal effect of financial development on output is smaller.JEL Classification : E44, O16Keywords : Financial development, shock, output volatility, VAR
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Permata, Meily Ika, Ibrahim Ibrahim, and Hidayah Dhini Ari. "APAKAH PERKEMBANGAN FINANSIAL MEREDAM ATAU MEMPERBESAR DAMPAK SUATU KEJUTAN?" Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 2 (January 30, 2012): 113–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i2.459.
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This paper analyzes the role of financial development on economic output in Indonesia. Using vector autoregressive method, the results confirm the positive impact of financial development on output growth. The interaction between the financial development and the shock either in financial or real sector shows that the financial development has a positive role to dampen the negative impact of the shock on the output growth, while strengthen the positive one. Another variable on the model, which significantly affect the output growth are excess money, term of trade, and the price. Compare to these variables, the marginal effect of financial development on output is smaller. JEL Classification : E44, O16Keywords : Financial development, shock, output volatility, VAR
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Wardani, Mita Pradnya, Regina Niken W., and Agus Lutfi. "Dampak Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia Tahun 2005.Q1-2016.Q4." e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi 6, no. 1 (May 27, 2019): 91. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/ejeba.v6i1.11110.
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Policies taken by the government and the central bank greatly determine the size of the money supply. World oil prices play a role in increasing the money supply through inflation. The purpose of this study is to find out the most effective policy in controlling the money supply by the public, using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the variables in the study. The estimation of the impulse response function and also the variance decomposition which describes how and how much influence the shock from the amount of money supply. The VAR estimation shows that the money supply is most significantly influenced by the money supply itself, economic growth, deposit rates and exchange rates while inflation does not have a significant effect on the money supply. Impulse response analysis shows that the money supply gets the fastest and most powerful response to inflation. Whereas in the description of variance decomposition, the variation explained by the large money supply affects the change in the money supply itself and the second rank is economic growth. Keywords: Oil Prices, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate.
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Kutu, Adebayo Augustine, and Harold Ngalawa. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Sector Performance in South Africa." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 8, no. 3(J) (July 3, 2016): 26–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v8i3(j).1286.
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This paper employs an eight variable Structural Vector Auto regression (SVAR) model to examine how monetary policy shocks affect industrial sector performance in South Africa using monthly data from 1994:1 to 2012:12.The study finds no direct link between exchange rate and interest rate shocks and industrial output growth. A money supply shock, however, is observed to exert a significant positive impact on industrial output growth from about the eighth month. The study also reveals that the interest rate response to an unanticipated increase in the rate of inflation is insignificant, reflecting the infrequent changes of the repo rate in the country. We also find evidence of a symbiotic relationship between industrial output growth and other sectors of the economy that form components of aggregate output. The study further demonstrates that monetary authorities have very limited control over industrial output growth using instruments of monetary policy. In addition, it is found that relatively large proportions of the variations in the rate of inflation are explained by changes in money supply, exchange rates and industrial output. We also observe that variations in exchange rates are largely explained by unexpected changes in the exchange rates themselves, which supports the Martingale Hypothesis of exchange rates.
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Tule, Moses K., Taiwo Ajilore, and Augustine Ujunwa. "Monetary Policy Contagion in the West African Monetary Zone." Foreign Trade Review 54, no. 4 (November 2019): 375–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0015732519874219.
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The study utilized quarterly time series data for Nigeria and three selected West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries for the period 1980–2016 to verify whether monetary policy shocks emanating from Nigeria are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in WAMZ economies. The study complemented the Global vector autoregressive method with the Diebold–Yilmaz (2009) connectedness weights computation for the analysis. Inferences from generalized impulse response function (GIRF) analysis indicated that an unanticipated Nigerian monetary policy shock depreciates the Nigeria–USA exchange rate, stimulates growth, decelerates inflation and expands the money stock in the short run for Nigeria. In Ghana, Nigeria’s monetary policy shocks similarly depreciates the exchange rate, slows growth with high inflationary impact in the short run. In the Gambia, unanticipated shocks emanating from Nigeria strengthens the Gambia–USA exchange rate, depresses growth and inflationary pressures. Sierra Leone shares the appreciation of its currency with the Gambia, in addition to an economic expansion and rising inflation. Money supply also increases to accommodate the expanding demand. These results validated the thesis that there exist considerable geographical linkages within the WAMZ regions through which macroeconomic fluctuations are transmitted. For policy, monetary authorities in the region should collectively address the question of how to stabilize the economy in response to monetary policy shocks emanating from Nigeria. JEL Codes: E52, E32, E65, F02
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Taube, Paul Michael. "Money Growth and Supply Shock Effects on Consumer Leverage, Consumption and Financial Wealth." Managerial Finance 20, no. 4 (April 1994): 8–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eb018468.
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Hossain, Md Sharif, and Md Thasinul Abedin. "Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 8, no. 5(J) (October 30, 2016): 240–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v8i5(j).1446.
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This paper investigates the impacts of money supply, government expenditure, velocity, industry value addition and economic growth on inflation of Bangladesh using time series data from 1978-2014. The ADF test results suggest that the variables are of I(1). It is found that there exist five co-integration equations. The outcome of the Granger Causality test suggests the short-run unidirectional causality running from industrial value addition to money supply, from inflation, money supply, velocity, industrial value addition and economic growth to government spending. Bidirectional causality has been found between economic growth and industrial value addition. Finally, short-run and long-run effects of money supply, government spending, velocity, industry value addition and economic growth on inflation are estimated. It is found that the speed of adjustment for short-run to approach to the long-run equilibrium level is significant at any significance level. It has been found that it will take about 1.25 years for a complete convergence process to approach its equilibrium. Therefore, in case of any shock to the inflation equation, the speed of adjustment is significantly faster. It has also been found that the long-run effects of money supply and velocity have positive significant effects while the economic growth has significant negative effect on inflation in Bangladesh economy. It has been found that the long-run effects of money supply and velocity are more than short-run effects meaning that over the time more money supply and velocity increase the more and more inflation in Bangladesh but economic growth decreases the inflation.
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Ekong, Christopher Nyong, and Uduak Michael Ekong. "MONETARY POLICY AND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: MEASURING THE EXTENDED IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY." JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS 3, no. 1 (2022): 97–131. http://dx.doi.org/10.47509/jafe.2022.v03i01.06.
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The study empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on the performance of the industrial sector in Nigeria, and how this affect the general growth performance of the economy in the periods 1980-2018. Monetary policy variables used were money supply (M2t), monetary policy rate (Mprt), Treasury bill rate (Tbrt) and Credit to the private real sector (Credt). We also gauged the system with other control variables like gross fixed capital formation (gcft), inflation (????t) and exchange rate (exr). Utilizing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we found that any unanticipated shock on monetary policy rate and money supply growth will produce falling impact on industrial sector output that is consistent with no sign of convergence throughout the period. However, shocks to credit supply and treasury bill rate produces positive growth outliers at different magnitudes in the industrial sector. We also found statistically significant pass-through effect of monetary policy from the industrial sector to the general economy of at least 30 percent growth effect. A number of possible policy menu capable of deepening monetary policy-industrial performance nexus in Nigeria in years following the study have been prescribed in the studyincluding improved stock market development, bond market development and other credit channels that easily linked policy to the private sector for seamless policy transmission.
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Vitomir, Jelena, and Đorđe Lazić. "External and internal macroeconomic shocks in case of small economy with the currency board." Megatrend revija 18, no. 2 (2021): 39–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/megrev2102039v.
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External and internal economic shocks can threaten the macroeconomic stability of a small economy. In the currency board regime, there is no role for the Central Bank as a macroeconomic stabilizer in the event of an external or internal shock. In this paper, the research is based on the analysis of eight countries with small economies with currency boards or discretionary monetary policy. The impact and connections between changes in EURIBOR, interest rates, inflation measured by the GDP deflator, money supply and GDP in the period 1997-2015 are analyzed. The paper proves that in countries with a currency board, whose regimes have a harmonized relationship with the European Central Bank and EURIBOR, interest rate shocks are less pronounced. The analysis of the links between EURIBOR, interest rates, money supply, inflation and GDP is not statistically significant in the "experiment" countries. In the control sample of countries with a variable exchange rate, the situation is heterogeneous for individual countries, but statistical significance has been determined in relation to EURIBOR and inflation. We conclude that EURIBOR may be one of the generators of exogenous shocks. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), there are much more significant internal transmission mechanisms that lead to macroeconomic imbalances. The growth of deposits was preceded by the growth of loans and money supply. This led to a fall in interest rates which the Central Bank of BiH (CBB&H) could not influence due to the currency board. However, the fall in interest rates did not yield the expected results. GDP has shrunk, inflation is falling, while at the same time the high unemployment rate has remained unchanged. The nominal exchange rate of the domestic currency was determined by law, but there was an appreciation of the real exchange rate, which affected the increase in the foreign trade imbalance. The result of the currency board is price stability, nominal exchange rate stability and money supply growth. Negative results are: appreciation of the real exchange rate, faster growth of imports and maintaining a very high unemployment rate. Macroeconomic developments in the BiH economy do not always have the right course that can be expected in mature economies. The achievements and applicability of standard macroeconomic policies are very limited.
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Melesse, Wondemhunegn Ezezew. "Business cycles in Ethiopia under alternative monetary policy rules." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 10, no. 3 (September 2, 2019): 299–313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-12-2018-0395.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare business cycle fluctuations in Ethiopia under interest rate and money growth rules. Design/methodology/approach In order to achieve this objective, the author constructs a medium-scale open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model features several nominal and real distortions including habit formation in consumption, price rigidity, deviation from purchasing power parity and imperfect capital mobility. The paper also distinguishes between liquidity-constrained and Ricardian households. The model parameters are calibrated for the Ethiopian economy based on data covering the period January 2000–April 2015. Findings The main result suggests that: the model economy with money growth rule is substantially less powerful or more muted for the amplification and transmission of exogenous shocks originating from government spending programs, monetary policy, technological progress and exchange rate movements. The responses of output to fiscal policy shocks are relatively stronger under autarky which appears to confirm the findings of Ilzetzki et al. (2013) who suggest bigger multipliers in self-sufficient, closed economies. With regard to positive productivity shock, however, the model with interest rate feedback rule generates a decline in output and an increase in inflation, which are at odds with conventional empirical regularities. Research limitations/implications The major implication is that a central bank regulating some measure of monetary stocks should not expect (fear) as much expansion (contraction) in output following currency devaluation (liquidity withdrawal) as a sister central bank that relies on an interest rate feedback rule. As emphasized by Mishra et al. (2010) the necessary conditions for stronger transmission of interest-rule-based monetary policy shocks are hardly existent in emerging and developing economies targeting monetary aggregates; hence the relatively weaker responses of output and inflation in the model economy with money growth rule. Monetary policy authorities need to be cautious when using DSGE models to analyze business cycle dynamics. Quite often, DSGE models tend to mimic the proverbial “crooked house” built to every man’s advise. Whenever additional modification is made to an existing baseline model, previously established regularities break down. For instance, this paper documented negative response of output to technology shock. Such contradictions are not uncommon. For example, Furlanetto (2006) and Ramayandi (2008) have also found similarly inconsistent responses to fiscal and productivity shocks, respectively. Originality/value Using DSGE models for research and teaching purposes is not common in developing economies. To the best of the author’s knowledge, only one other Ethiopian author did apply DSGE model to study business cycle fluctuation in Ethiopia albeit under the implausible assumption of perfect capital mobility and a central bank following interest rate rule. The contribution of this paper is that it departs from these two unrealistic assumptions by allowing international risk premium as a function of the net foreign asset position of the country and by applying money growth rule which closely mimics the behavior of central banks in low-income economies such as Ethiopia.
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Deev, Oleg, and Martin Hodula. "The Long-Run Superneutrality of Money Revised: the Extended European Evidence." Review of Economic Perspectives 16, no. 3 (September 1, 2016): 187–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2016-0012.
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Abstract This article investigates the validity of the money superneutrality concept for the large panel of European economies. While focusing exclusively on endogenous growth theories including the Mundell-Tobin effect, we examine the long-run response of real output to a permanent inflation shock in every studied country using a structural vector autoregressive framework. For the majority of countries in our sample, the longrun superneutrality concept is confirmed since the original increase/decrease in output growth fades in time. We also test the additional hypothesis of whether the group of countries with smaller in-sample inflation mean forms the exception to the long-run money superneutrality. As the result, modern economies might be better described from the viewpoint of Sidrauski.
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Rashid, Abdul, and Zainab Jehan. "The response of macroeconomic aggregates to monetary policy shocks in Pakistan." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 6, no. 4 (October 28, 2014): 314–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2013-0016.
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Purpose – This paper aims to empirically examine how shocks to monetary policy measures (the short-term nominal interest rate and broad money supply) affect macroeconomic aggregates, namely, output growth of the economy, national price levels and the nominal exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach – Johansen’s (1995) cointegration technique and error correction models are used to explore the long-run relationship among variables. To investigate how macroeconomic aggregates respond to a one-standard deviation shock to the underlying monetary measures, the authors estimate impulse response functions based on error correction models. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 1980-2009. Findings – The results provide evidence that there is a long-run stable relationship between the authors' monetary measures and the underlying macroeconomic aggregates. They also find that the industrial production adjusts at a faster speed relative to commodity prices and the exchange rate over the examined period. Further, they show that the short-term interest rate has relatively stronger effects on output as compared to broad money supply, whereas prices and exchange rates adjust more quickly to their long-run equilibrium when money supply is used as a measure of monetary policy. Finally, the authors find significant evidence of a price puzzle regardless of whether they consider a closed or an open economy case. However, an initial appreciation of exchange rate is observed in response to a one-standard deviation shock to money supply, indicating the overshooting hypothesis phenomenon. Practical implications – The findings of the analysis suggest that the interest rate-oriented monetary policy is more effective when the monetary authorities’ objective is to enhance the output growth of the economy. However, in case of inflation targeting, the broad money supply seems a more appropriate instrument. Our findings also suggest that the monetary policy has a significant role in stabilizing both real and nominal sectors of the economy. Originality/value – The main value of this paper is to examine the significance of monetary policy for a developing and relatively small open economy, namely, Pakistan. The authors use the error correction model, which improves the estimation by accounting for the long-run association. They also take into account the world oil prices by including the world commodity price index as a control variable in their empirical investigation. Finally, they utilize quarterly data rather than annual, and they cover a relatively recent sample period.
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Olamide, Ebenezer, Andrew Maredza, and Kanayo Ogujiuba. "Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model." Sustainability 14, no. 6 (March 16, 2022): 3490. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14063490.
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Resulting from the incessant political and economic uncertainty that bedevils the EAC region in the recent past, the various governments have used monetary policy changes in response to shocks from macroeconomic variables. However, the available literature shows a non-agreement by scholars as far as the dynamics in monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic activity connections are concerned, for both country-by-country analyses and regional assessments. This article widens the frontiers of knowledge about how the dynamics of monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic performance interact within the EAC economic region. We adopted the S-VAR method because of its contemporary nature as far as a transmission of monetary policy approach is concerned. The interconnectivity among the countries of EAC is an indication that any shock to the price of commodities (non-oil commodities) has significant implication on the exchange rate, which will be channelled through the supply of money and monetary policy to the GDP. The need to diversify the productive and export base of member countries, compared to the continuous dependence on one or a few products as the major source of income, is hereby advocated.
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Faisal, Faisal Ghazi. "Analysis of The Impact of Monetary Policy in Bank Credit: An Applied Study On the Iraqi Banking Sector Using The NARDL Model from 2005 To 2021." Journal of AlMaarif University College 33, no. 4 (December 7, 2022): 271–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.51345/.v33i4.666.g312.
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The study aimed to analyze the impact of monetary policy on bank credit in Iraq. We depended on the application of standard methods by applying a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), based on monthly data for a time series for the period (2005 - 2021). The results showed a positive, long-term positive shock relationship to the independent variables (money supply, policy interest rate, inflation and bank deposits) on the dependent variable (bank credit), while the results did not show an effect of long-term negative shocks by the independent variables (money supply, price of money, Policy interest, inflation and deposits) on the dependent variable (bank credit) with the exception of the effect of long-term negative shocks by bank deposits on bank credit where it was positive, while a significant long-term inverse relationship was also found for the positive shocks of the independent variables (legal reserve and price exchange) on the dependent variable (bank credit), while the effect of long-term negative shocks generated by the exchange rate on bank credit is direct and moral, while there is no effect of long-term negative shocks generated by the legal reserve in the dependent variable (bank credit). In light of the results of the study, the researcher recommends the need to develop specific administrative and organizational measures to control the variables that govern the management of expansion and contraction in the volume of bank credit granted by banks operating in the Iraqi banking sector in proportion to stimulating economic growth, as well as unifying the efforts of the central bank and commercial banks operating in The Iraqi banking sector to create a suitable climate for bank credit.
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Sadath, Anver Chittangadan, and Rajesh Herolli Acharya. "The macroeconomic effects of increase and decrease in oil prices: evidences of asymmetric effects from India." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 15, no. 3 (February 8, 2021): 647–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-02-2020-0009.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether oil price shocks emanating from oil price increase and decrease have a different impact on the macroeconomic activity. Design/methodology/approach This study conducts the empirical analysis using structural vector auto-regressive model on Indian data for the period from 1996 to 2017. This paper uses four key macroeconomic variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), the real rate of interest, real money supply, wholesale price index inflation and various linear and non-linear measures of oil price shock. Findings Empirical results confirm that oil price shock has a significant impact on various macroeconomic variables used in the study. Specifically, shocks emanating from a decline in oil price have a stronger positive impact on real GDP, whereas, a shock due to the rise in oil price has a weaker negative impact on real GDP. Impulse responses confirm that shocks due to a decline in oil prices are long-lasting compared to similar shocks due to a rise in oil prices. Therefore, this study concludes that the macroeconomic impact of oil price shock is asymmetric in India. Originality/value This paper adds the following new insights: First, this paper presents a distinct relationship between the growth rate of oil price and GDP during increasing and decreasing phases of oil price to drive home the case for this study. Second, India has adopted crucial administrative initiatives such as deregulation of the market for petroleum products and the promotion of renewable energy during the study period. Finally, previous studies have revealed specific behavioral and economic features of people in India with respect to the demand for petroleum products. In light of these factors, this paper based on Indian experience would be justified.
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Sharma, Apica, and Ibrahim Nurudeen. "Monetary Policy Disturbance in India: The Relationships Among Money, Output and Prices." Indian Economic Journal 67, no. 3-4 (December 2019): 246–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0019466220947699.
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The study examines the relationships among money supply, output and prices. Quarterly data were sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which spanned from 1996 Q2 to 2019 Q1. Four variables were included in the study: GDP, inflation (Consumer Price Index [CPI]) and two measures of money supply (M1 and M3). The findings of the study reveal that money supply is correlated with India’s output as well as inflation. Johansen’s test of co-integration reveals the existence of a long-term relationship among the variables. Another striking finding of this study is that neither M1 nor M3 could cause output (GDP) in the short run, but both Granger-cause inflation in the short run, which may be attributed to the output growth capacity limit of the country. The monetary policy disturbance in relation to other variables was examined through a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that indicates that the two measures of money supply exert a positive impact on GDP. Similarly, the finding also shows that a monetary policy shock from the two measures of money supply causes a positive and continuous increase in inflation in India. Thus, money supply measure M3 is a potential indicator of movement in India’s output; hence the monetary authority should be mindful of inflation while targeting output expansion through money supply.
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Yensu, Joseph, Seth Kofi Nkrumah, Samuel Amankwah, and Klenam Korbla Ledi. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth." Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets and Institutions 12, no. 4 (2022): 33–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/rgcv12i4p2.
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This study aimed to investigate the connection between exchange rate volatility and economic growth in Ghana. The study applied descriptive statistical analysis, regression analysis, and correlation analysis to analyze the data spanning from the year 2000 to 2020. The study discovered that the actual exchange rate exhibits clustering volatility, which means that a period of large (small) fluctuations in the exchange rate shock is followed by large (small) fluctuations over a longer time. Negative correlations were found between exchange rate volatility and trade openness, government expenditure, money supply, foreign direct investment (FDI), output, and domestic credit to the private sector, among others. It was determined that exogenous variables such as terms of trade, domestic money supply, government expenditure, and capital flows affected exchange rate volatility over the long term, which was consistent with the findings of other studies (Rasheed, Ishaq, & Malik, 2022; Barguellil, Ben-Salha, & Zmami, 2018). The study also indicated that exchange rate volatility had a negative effect on economic growth. In all, most of the effects are felt at the end rather than in the short run. The government should encourage the diversification of industries by encouraging industrialization to boost export as a way of offsetting our huge imports. There must be a tightening of the monetary policy through raising interest rates to keep inflation at bay.
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Abell, John D. "The Impact of Demand Management Policies on Black Vs. White Employment." Review of Black Political Economy 18, no. 2 (September 1989): 43–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02895232.
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This article uses vector autoregression analysis to examine the relative impacts on black and white employment growth of monetary and fiscal actions. It was found that the employment responses to anticipated policy actions, while significant, were generally short-lived, with the exception of the effects of anticipated money growth on white employment. The influences of unanticipated policy changes are of a longer duration. The predominant finding in which black employment growth responded differently from white employment growth was in response to a monetary shock. The black employment response was sharply negative while the white employment response was a gradual increase over nine quarters. The results indicate that this difference occurred only during the 1980s and not in the 1970s and suggests that the effects of bank failures and credit rationing during this period may have significantly hurt minority employment opportunities.
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Alam, Naushad. "DO OIL PRICE SHOCK, AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET: A STUDY OF THE SAUDI STOCK MARKET." Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews 8, no. 3 (June 25, 2020): 1234–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.83126.
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Purpose of the study: This work aims to find the type of relationship amongst the chosen variables, inflation (INF), short-term interest rate (SIR), money supply (M.S.) and crude oil price (COP) and oil price shocks represented by DUMMY respectively on the capital market of Saudi Arabia. It will also throw insight to policymaker to find factors which influence the capital market of Saudi Arabia and to take remedial measures to boost investment in the country.
Research Methodology: The relationships amongst the Saudi security market, the oil price shock, and the selected macroeconomic variables as mentioned above are determined using the Johansen test of co-integration, the vector error correction model, and the Wald test. The research employs the time series data for a period of 2009to 2016, for the study.
Findings: The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Saudi stock market and the selected variables for the study. The study shows a positive association between the money supply and the stock market, but inflation, short-term interest rate, and crude oil price, the result indicates a negative relationship.
Implications: The present study can have implications for the policymaker to take corrective measures for better performance of the stock market by controlling inflation and regulating the short-term interest rate.As the findings indicate that they have a negative relationship with TASI. This paper will also help the policymaker in identifying the real cause for the decline in the value of the stock price. A good performing stock market means better economic growth and overall economic development. To diversify the economy to have an alternative to the oil-driven economy to a more balanced economy by promoting other sectors like manufacturing and tourism.
Novelty/Originality of this study: The literature review confirms that all work of oil price shock is related to its effect on the security market return. This work is different from the other study as it includes macroeconomic variables in the study, together with the oil price shocks. The study is unique from other studies as it is broader in approach, by including more variables than earlier studies which mostly included the oil price shocks and its impact on the stock market. There is no work done to investigate the joint effect of macroeconomic variables and oil price shocks on the Saudi stock market.
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Al Arif, M. Maulana, and Achmad Tohari. "PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 9, no. 2 (February 13, 2007): 145–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v9i2.203.
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This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41
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Zamaraev, B., A. Nazarova, and E. Sukhanov. "Financial Restrictions Follow The Investment Pause." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 10 (October 20, 2014): 4–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-10-4-43.
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The article considers the interrelationship between external and internal factors of economic growth and their influence on the Russian economy at the turn of 2012-2013. Slowing of basic macroeconomic indicators is connected with fast reduction of financing sources - the investment pause of the biggest Russian companies and a sharp decrease of state investment. Besides, foreign investors withdrew their money from financial assets of Russian companies. The article presents the quality assessment of changes in domestic economic activity and volumes of financial flows between Russia and the rest of the world, taking into account possible impact of geopolitical shock caused by the events around Ukraine.
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Annisa, Nur, and Tiara Nirmala. "Analisis Exchange Market Pressure Di Indonesia." E-journal Field of Economics, Business and Entrepreneurship 1, no. 3 (October 28, 2022): 196–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/efebe.v1i3.41.
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Exchange Market Pressure is defined as the occurrence of excess supply or disequilibrium in the money market, which is indicated by the depreciating value of a country's currency and reducing foreign exchange reserves. This study aims to analyze the Exchange Market Pressure in Indonesia by looking at the relationship, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. This study uses secondary data taken from the website of Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency. The analytical tool used is the Vector Error Correction Model. The results show that in the long-term relationship, domestic credit growth and the BI rate have a significant positive relationship, GDP growth has a significant negative relationship, while the current account balance is not significant to Exchange Market Pressure. And the results of the study show that in the short term, domestic credit growth has a significant positive relationship, GDP growth, current account balance, and the BI rate have a significant negative relationship. Meanwhile, the EMP responded negatively to the shock of the BI rate, while based on variance decomposition, the biggest influence came from the GDP growth variable.
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John Asaleye, Abiola, Olabisi Popoola, Adedoyin Isola Lawal, Adeyemi Ogundipe, and Omotola Ezenwoke. "The credit channels of monetary policy transmission: implications on output and employment in Nigeria." Banks and Bank Systems 13, no. 4 (December 21, 2018): 103–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.13(4).2018.10.
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There has been an increasing trend in the unemployment rate despite the growth rate witnessed. Monetary policy is presumed as one of the ways to improve the situation. Likewise, the relationship between monetary policy and employment has generated controversial debates in the literature. Though its connection has been extensively studied, however, the implications of monetary policy in respect to time frame perspectives on employment and output have not been widely addressed in the literature. This study provides evidence on shock effects, long and short-run impacts of monetary policy transmission through the credit channels on output and employment in Nigeria within the period of 1981 to 2016 using the Structural Vector Autoregression and Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL). Evidence from the forecast error shock showed that variations in monetary policy indicators affect output more than employment in the first two periods; however, it affects employment more afterwards. The ARDL results show no evidence of co-integration when output is used as the dependent variable; conversely, cointegration exists when employment is used as the dependent variable. The monetary policy indicators: money supply, bank deposit liability and interest rate are statistically and economically significant with employment in the long run. In the short run, money supply and interest rate are economically and statistically significant. The findings revealed that the Nigerian government can maximize the long-run benefits of monetary policy through the credit channels on employment. Hence, there is a need for policymakers to look beyond short-run gain and promote long-run employment via monetary policy among others.
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Olamide, Ebenezer Gbenga, and Andrew Maredza. "A dynamic regression panel approach to the determinants of monetary policy and economic growth." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 10, no. 3 (September 2, 2019): 385–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-10-2018-0302.
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Purpose Empirically, the purpose of this paper is to investigate policy variables that determine monetary policy and economic growth of some selected countries within the economic bloc of Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). The selected countries are Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Design/methodology/approach Annual time series data for a panel of 11 Southern African countries spanning 1980–2015 were employed in the study. The major instrument of estimation is the dynamic regression panel model. In order to conform to econometric principles, robustness checks were carried out on the variables of interest so as to avoid spurious results. An estimation of impulse response and variance decomposition analyses were to complement the approach to the study. Findings The result of the long-run dynamic panel regression reveals that GDP growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, money supply and oil and commodity prices do have profound impact on monetary policy within SADC. It was further revealed from the study that commodity price shock is the major exogenous determinant of monetary policy dynamics and the effect is transmitted via exchange rate channel to macroeconomics of the region; with inflation rate and money supply playing a major role in the transmission mechanism as it affects the economies of the countries in this region. Practical implications The policy implication is that inflation is seen as a major challenge to the countries under review. Among other things, a hybrid of inflation and monetary targeting should be adopted to complement each other as policy combination within the region. Originality/value The study accounts for the determinants of monetary policy vis-à-vis growth potentials of some selected countries in SADC, using a combination of dynamic regression panel approach and SVAR elements.
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Hadi, Halifah, Hasdi Aimon, and Dewi Zaini Putri. "ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA." Ecosains: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 7, no. 2 (November 1, 2018): 135. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/ecosains.11066657.00.
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The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will increase the enterprises productivity.
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Ndarihoranye, Augustin, Gedion Alang’o, and Omwono Omwono. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies Coordination Rwanda Experience." Randwick International of Social Science Journal 1, no. 2 (August 1, 2020): 42–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.47175/rissj.v1i2.44.
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This paper attempts to quantify the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Rwanda from 2008 to 2018. The paper uses Granger causality test and vector autoregressive (VAR) framework to determine whether these policies are implemented independently and also looks at the extent of their coordination. The empirical results using unstructured VAR model suggest that monetary and fiscal policies interact and are coordinated in Rwanda. The impulse response functions demonstrate significant interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. For instance a positive shock on government expenditure induces an increase in broad money that in turn induces an increase in liquidity in the economy. Finally, the paper recommends that both policies should continue interacting in order to strengthen policy coordination. Therefore, ultimately achieve a stable and low inflation together with high growth.
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Saleem, Nadia. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 13, no. 2 (July 1, 2008): 99–128. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2008.v13.i2.a6.
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The available evidence in Pakistan suggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper examines the relationship between the determinants of inflation and its volatility by using monthly data for 1990:M1-2007:M5. The determinants of inflation are estimated by a VAR analysis, which shows that inflation, the interest rate and money supply move together. A VAR model assumes constant error variance. We relaxed this assumption by employing an ARCH/GARCH model and conclude that inflation is volatile in nature. For measuring the qualitative nature of the inflationary process we used an EGARCH model. It confirms that the time effect model is significant. It also suggests that in the first four months of the calendar year, the inflationary shock is negative and it can, therefore, hamper growth.
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Moss, Bernard H. "Economic and Monetary Union and the Social Divide in France." Contemporary European History 7, no. 2 (July 1998): 227–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0960777300004884.
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Monetary policy since the Second World War has always been a politically and socially sensitive issue in France. It reflected the peculiar strength of the French Communist Party (PCF) in the unions and working class. Postwar governments relied upon monetary inflation, devaluation and administered credit to sustain growth and guarantee social peace. With the exception of the period following General de Gaulle's seizure of power in 1958, there was little choice for governments faced with weak, divided and conflicting unions, a volatile work force, and a united left threatening radical change. Where German governments responded to union challenges and the oil shock of 1974 with deflation, the French expanded the money supply. The divergence of French policy from German after 1968 made European economic and monetary union impossible.
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Umar Bala, Chin Lee, and Rabiu Maijama’a. "Asymmetric Pass-Through Effects of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Malaysia." International Journal of Business and Society 22, no. 2 (August 12, 2021): 753–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3755.2021.
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This empirical analysis intends to examine the asymmetric response of economic growth when the oil price changes in Malaysia by applying threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) cointegration and asymmetric adjustment models. The results revealed that the oil price has an asymmetric impact on Malaysian economic growth. We found that when oil price increases this accelerates economic growth; however, the speeds of adjustment back to the steady position were insignificant. When the oil price dropped, oil price significantly and negatively affects economic growth for a period of time and then returns back to its normal position. The results revealed that Malaysian economic growth constantly benefits when the oil price increases and is temporarily negatively affected when oil prices drop. The results have important policy implications. This suggests that it is essential to the policy makers to consider different policy responses for hikes and drops in oil prices. The result implies that negative oil price shock would lower economic growth, however it is temporary. Therefore, policy makers might response by implementing expansionary monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. The explanation is intuitive. For example, an increase in the money supply would normally pull down the interest rate which would further encourage consumption and investment, stimulate economic growth, which would increase oil demand and push up its price.
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Occhino, Filippo. "MARKET SEGMENTATION AND THE RESPONSE OF THE REAL INTEREST RATE TO MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 12, no. 5 (November 2008): 591–618. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100508070326.
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Following a contractionary monetary policy shock, the aggregate output decreases over time for six to eight quarters, while the real interest rate increases immediately and remains high for three quarters, which can hardly be replicated by models characterized by a standard consumption Euler equation. This paper adopts a segmented markets framework where some households are permanently excluded from financial markets. The aggregate output and the nominal interest rate are modeled as exogenous autoregressive processes, while the real interest rate is determined endogenously. For intermediate levels of market segmentation, the model is able to account for both the persistent decreasing path of the aggregate output and the persistent increase in the real interest rate which follow an unanticipated increase in the nominal interest rate. The sign, the size and the persistence of the responses of the real interest rate and the money growth rate are close to those in the data.
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Luan, Zehua, Xiangyu Man, and Xuan Zhou. "Understanding the Interaction of Chinese Fiscal and Monetary Policy." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 9 (September 3, 2021): 416. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14090416.
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Interaction of fiscal and monetary policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability, especially for an economy with downward pressure as well as a tightened space for macro policy, like China. In this paper, we use a time-varying-parameter (TVP-VAR) model to study Chinese fiscal–monetary interaction and divide it into three periods. We claim that China went through a monetary dominant regime from 1996Q to 2017Q4 since the response of CPI to a fiscal expansion was negative in the short run and about zero in the long run, while the monetary expansion had positive effects on CPI. During this period, the response of government spending and money supply to each other’s shock had the same sign, indicating that the two policies acted as complements. However, we argue that 2008Q4 was a turning point that divided this period into two different periods. The response level of M2 growth rate to a fiscal expansion kept rising from 1996Q1 to 2008Q4, indicating the central bank’s increasingly active cooperation with fiscal policy, while it decreased from 2009Q1 to 2017Q4. Since 2018Q1, the economy has been going through a fiscal dominant regime in that the response of GDP growth rate and CPI to the fiscal expansion has sharply increased. We also argue that the relative change of the role between the two policies should be mainly attributed to the variation in the fiscal authority’s characteristics because fiscal response to a monetary shock has remained at a similar level the whole time, even if there have been changes in the characteristics of the central bank.
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Bulut, Ömer Uğur, and Sadık Rıdvan Karluk. "Timeseries Analysis of the Financial Liberalization and Pre-Crisis Indicators in Turkish Economy." Journal of Business Theory and Practice 5, no. 2 (May 26, 2017): 141. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/jbtp.v5n2p141.
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<p><em>In our study, the selected financial liberalization and pre-crisis indicators which is inspired by the </em><em>work of Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart known as KLR approach is analyzed. For Turkish economy, </em><em>the completion of the financial liberalization process in the time interval after 1989, the effects of shock, </em><em>causality relationship and interact with each of these indicators is surveyed through the VAR model </em><em>and Toda-Yamamoto test. The purpose of this study to show that financial liberalization indicators of</em><br /><em>hot money movements, real interest rates and credit growth triggered the crisis which were </em><em>experienced in Turkey after 1989 by adversely effecting the pre-crisis indicators. In addition to this </em><em>purpose, the most effective indicators of financial liberalization on pre-crisis indicators will be </em><em>determined for Turkish economy. According to VAR model and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, the </em><em>negative impact on the pre-crisis indicators, description of these indicators percentage and the </em><em>causality relationship of hot money movements and real interest rates are more than the credit growth. </em><em>The results will give ideas on policy makers in Turkey about the effectiveness of the financial </em><em>liberalization in economic crises.</em></p>
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POLYAKOVA Juliia, POLYAKOVA Juliia, and Solomiya SOKURENKO. "Stabilisation policies in Ukraine in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic." Fìnansi Ukraïni 2021, no. 3 (April 19, 2021): 99–113. http://dx.doi.org/10.33763/finukr2021.03.099.
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This paper aims at both theoretical and empirical assessment of stabilization policies in Ukraine in the wake of a contractionary macroeconomic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Various aspects of fiscal and monetary policies are analyzed within the theoretical framework of a dynamic AD–AS model with a focus on the exchange rate effects. It is demonstrated that output effects of fiscal and monetary policies depend on inflationary inertia measured as the correlation between present and lagged inflation. Depreciation of the exchange rate is inflationary and can be contractionary under both low and high inflationary inertia. For Ukraine, it is found that the supply-side recovery is of priority, in contrast to the majority of industrial countries where insufficient demand is the biggest problem. Using the 2SLS estimator, it is obtained that a non-inflationary increase in the GDP growth rate is expected under a decrease in the excessive money supply combined with the exchange rate appreciation. As the exchange rate is still undervalued due to effects of the large devaluation of 2014–2015, a combination of conservative monetary policy and moderate exchange rate appreciation should not raise any concerns. Our results reject frequent speculations that a local appreciation of the hryvna has been responsible for the GDP slowdown since the middle of 2019. Fiscal policy seems to be neutral in respect to both inflation and GDP. Among other results, it is found that an increase of the Euro area output by 1% contributes to the GDP growth rate in Ukraine by 0,6-0,7 percentage points. As suggested by a dummy variable, a deep economic slump of 2014-2015 was not caused by structural shifts in the Ukraine’s economy, with a large depreciation of the hryvna and excessive money supply being the most relevant explanatory factors.
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Pasqualino, Roberto, Irene Monasterolo, and Aled Jones. "An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk." Sustainability 11, no. 14 (July 23, 2019): 3995. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11143995.
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In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.
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Madani, Adinda, and Tika Widiastuti. "THE IMPACT OF ISLAMIC MONETARY OPERATIONS AND AGGREGATE FINANCING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA (2010-2020)." Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam (Journal of Islamic Economics and Business) 7, no. 2 (November 30, 2021): 185. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jebis.v7i2.26085.
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Islamic monetary operation policies are regulated to increase the effectiveness in facing economic developments, especially the monetary sector. The working mechanism of the Islamic monetary operation up to its impact on the development of the national economy illustrates the monetary policy transmission carried out by Bank Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS), Bank Indonesia Sharia Deposit Facility (FASBIS), Sharia Interbank Money Market (PUAS), and aggregate financing on Indonesia's economic growth in the period 2010 to 2020. This research method uses a quantitative approach with the analysis technique Vector Auto Regression (VAR) or Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. Using secondary data on the variables, it is obtained from the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the period January 2010 to December 2020. This study found that the SBIS variable has a negative relationship with GDP. Meanwhile, the variables FASBIS, PUAS, and aggregate financing have a positive relationship with GDP. For the future, it can be used as input and consideration in policy making that will be determined in optimizing Islamic monetary policy in Indonesia. Further research that will discuss this topic should use Islamic monetary instruments that are more complete than Islamic open market operations and sharia standing facilities. As well as comparing with conventional monetary operation instruments as a comparison for Islamic monetary.
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Singh, Jyoti, and Dipanshu Shrivastav. "Impact of COVID19 on Agriculture Sector." International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology 10, no. 5 (May 31, 2022): 5352–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.43112.
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Abstract: COVID-19 pandemic has brought the varied modification within the Indian agricultural system extensively throughout the year. Still, within the recent quarterly GDP estimates post-COVID state of affairs showcase their strengths and resilience in Indian agriculture, to register a positive growth of three.4% throughout the fiscal year 2020–21. The sole sector that accustomed get on the positive growth of five.8% witnessed the downfall by a pair of.5 % point. During this context, we tend to aim to synthesize the impact on the Indian agricultural system viz., production, selling and consumption followed by a collection of potential ways to recover and prosper post pandemic. There area unit several Survey findings indicate that the pandemic has affected production and selling through labour and provision constraints, whereas the negative financial gain shock restricted access to markets and enlarged costs of food commodities moving the consumption pattern. There area unit even the farmers facing the high % of loans and face major money downside. The pandemic wreaked a considerable physical, social, economic and emotional disturbance on all the stakeholders of Indian agricultural system. Seizing the crisis as a chance, the state declared a raft of measures and long-pending reforms. We tend to propose associate eight strategy starting from social safety nets, family farming, monetizing buffer stock, staggered acquisition to secondary agriculture to revive and prosper post-pandemic.
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Hussien, Mohammed Ebrahim, Md Mahmudul Alam, Md Wahid Murad, and Abu N. M. Wahid. "The performance of Islamic banks during the 2008 global financial crisis." Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research 10, no. 3 (May 7, 2019): 407–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jiabr-01-2017-0011.
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Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the profitability performance of Islamic banks (IBs) of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region during 2008 global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Bank-specific data are taken from the Bank Scope database and macroeconomic data are collected from International Financial Statistics. Using a panel data series of 30 banks for the period of 2005 to 2011, the study shows the evidence of structural break for the crisis year as well as the factors that impact the profitability of IBs. Findings The performance of GCC IBs was significantly influenced during the crisis period by capital adequacy, credit risk, financial risk, operational efficiency, liquidity, bank size, gross domestic product, growth rate of money supply, bank sector development and inflation rate. The study also finds that there is a structural change before and after the global financial crisis. Originality/value This is an original study that shows that the Sharīʿah-compliant banks have performed better during the crisis and are not affected based on their internal performance records; rather, they have been affected indirectly from the macro shock owing to the overall economic crisis.
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Popov, V. "To devalue or not to devalue?" Acta Oeconomica 61, no. 3 (September 1, 2011): 255–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.61.2011.3.1.
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If there is a negative terms of trade or financial shock leading to the deterioration in the balance of payments, there are two basic options for a country that has limited foreign exchange reserves. First, a country can maintain a fixed exchange rate (or even a currency board) and wait until the reduction of foreign exchange reserves leads to the reduction of money supply: this will drive domestic prices down and stimulate exports, raise interest rates and stimulate the inflow of capital, and finally will correct the balance of payments. Second, the country can allow the devaluation of national currency — flexible exchange rate will automatically bring the balance of payments back into the equilibrium. Because national prices are less flexible than exchange rates, the first type of adjustment is associated with the greater reduction of output.The empirical evidence on East European countries and other transition economies for the 1998–99 period (outflow of capital after the 1997 Asian and 1998 Russian currency crises and slowdown of output growth rates) suggests that the second type of policy response (devaluation) was associated with smaller loss of output than the first type (monetary contraction). The 2008–09 developments provide additional evidence for this hypothesis.
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Kirby, Simon, Ray Barrell, and Vladimir Pillonca. "Prospects for the Uk Economy." National Institute Economic Review 207 (January 2009): 51–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0027950109103679.
Full textAbstract:
Since our October forecast events have conspired to worsen the outlook for the UK and global economy. Concerns about the solvency of banks across the globe have continued, and in some cases intensified. The inter-linkages of the global economy continue to be highlighted as the list of economies slipping into recession grows, even for those who have not suffered the direct shock of a crisis in their domestic banking system. Indeed what started as a problem in securities markets related to sub-prime lending in the US mortgage market has evolved into the near collapse of the global banking system. The UK has enjoyed the fruits of the rapid growth of financial intermediation over the past decade. However, such gains are being sharply reversed, as discussed on pp. 4–8 of this Review. The problem of access to credit for households and non-financial corporations still persists and, if anything, the situation seems to have deteriorated. As discussed on pp. 71–2 of this Review, Bank of England data suggest that lending by banks to households and businesses contracted in the final quarter of last year, even though £37 billion (2.6 per cent of money GDP) of new capital was injected into two major UK banking groups, effectively nationalising one of them (Royal Bank of Scotland).
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Gupta, G. S. "Economic Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies." Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 28, no. 1 (January 2003): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090920030101.
Full textAbstract:
Economic fluctuations refer to ups and downs in the levels and/or rates of changes in the economic goal variables like real national income (GOP), inflation rate, and the rate of unemployment. Stabilization policies are the tools in the hands of the policy-makers to counter economic fluctuations and these include fiscal policy, monetary policy, and foreign exchange rate policy. This paper analyses the extent and depth of all major fluctuations (business cycles) across the G-7 countries, India, China, Malaysia, and the world as a whole during the Great Oepression and the last 40 years, identifies the major cause behind each significant departure from the trend, and examines the theoretical limitations as well as the actual application of the various policies to tame those business cycles. This paper finds that: Business cycles are universal. Each of the countries under analysis here has experienced an overall positive growth rate but also a negative growth rate, generally in more than one year, during the period of this study. Further, the standard deviation of the growth rate as a percentage of the growth rate (called the coefficient of variation) is sizeable in all countries as it varies between a low of 41 per cent in Malaysia and a high of 96 per cent in the UK. Business cycles are not always synchronized across countries. During the Great Depression and stagflation periods, most countries suffered from similar maladies but such a synchronization was rarely found in other times. For example, Japan performed relatively better during the 1950s and 1960s, and China and the South-East Asian economies enjoyed that position during the 1980s and 1990s. Further, while every country has experienced a negative growth rate, there is no year in the last 50 years in which the growth rate was negative in all countries. The world as a whole, of course, has always enjoyed a positive growth rate. Business cycles have become milder over time. During the Great Depression, output fell by over two digit rates in many countries japan experienced a two-digit growth rate in most of the years during 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, but lately, the growth rate in most countries is hovering around 2 to 5 per cent. Business cycles are caused by varying events. While the adverse demand shock caused the Great Depression, the adverse supply shock triggered the stagflation and economic reforms have been responsible for hyperinflation, financial crises, and prosperity. always been applied in the right perspective. During the Great Depression, the nominal money supply should have increased but it fell and the government expenditure rose but only marginally. The simple correlation and multiple regression analysis' results for the three select countries suggest that while the monetary policy was conducted as an anti-cyclical tool in lndia, it was pro-cyclical in the US and China, and quite the opposite was the case with regard to the conduct of fiscal policy. The cycles are bad and it is unfortunate that the stabilization policies do not offer panacea to tame them fully. However, it is heartening to find that economic fluctuations have become milder over time and the credit for this goes to the innovative developments in the macroeconomic theory and to the improvements in the practice of stabilization policies. Though cycles are unlikely to be eradicated, there is now only little fear of severe crises in future like the Great Depression or stagflation.
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Tabaković, Jorgovanka. "How we entered the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic." Ekonomika preduzeca 69, no. 3-4 (2021): 137–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekopre2103137t.
Full textAbstract:
The paper aims to point out the strength and effects of the shock of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the global and domestic economy. Effects differ depending on the characteristics of individual economies and the response of economic policy makers. The crisis called "the great lockdown" features: 1) suspension of activity in some sectors and huge declines in others, with pronounced asymmetry and 2) implementation of robust packages of monetary and fiscal policy measures. The paper focuses on the measures adopted in Serbia to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic on the domestic economy. It elaborates on the temporary measures adopted by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which helped preserve stability in the foreign exchange market, ensured efficient functioning of the money market, liquidity support to all sectors and more favourable financing conditions, sustained credit activity and supported the domestic real sector. According to our estimate, if the monetary and fiscal policy measures had not been adopted, the fall in Serbia's economic activity in 2020 would have exceeded 6%, while growth in 2021 would be modest, failing to reach the pre-pandemic growth dynamics even in the medium term. The adoption and implementation of the robust package of measures was possible because Serbia faced the crisis in a good macroeconomic and fiscal position owing to the strengthened economy and implementation of structural reforms in the past period. In fact, Serbia can serve as the example of a country confirming the importance of strengthening the economy on sustainable grounds in the past eight years, which created room for the adoption of comprehensive economic measures to support citizens and businesses, in order to preserve production capacities and jobs.
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Azizi, Bazari. "DUAL MONETARY INSTRUMENTS’ IMPACT ON THE PERFORMANCE AND STABILITY OF JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX." Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance 3, no. 2 (March 28, 2018): 315–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v3i2.894.
Full textAbstract:
The monetary instruments and capital market are closely related as these tools are operating in the money market. The influence of the monetary policy to the stocks and indexes’ performance has been the research interest in the previous literature. The monetary policies along with its’ instruments are transmitted not only in banking lending channel to affect the economic growth but also in the balance sheet channel. However, the conventional tools and policies are not adhering the sharia tenets. Hence, the sharia-compliance monetary system is emanated in Muslim majority countries, including Indonesia. Additionally, this establishment of policy is coupled with the emergence of the Islamic capital market in Indonesia. Thus, the analysis of the impact of either Islamic or conventional monetary system on the Islamic capital market in Indonesia that represented by the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is essential to look at its’ furthers effect on financial market growth.This study examines the impact of the Islamic and conventional monetary variables on the performance of the Jakarta Islamic Index in Indonesia. It also investigates the stability of the JII under the occurrence of the shock derived from the monetary instruments. Monthly closing value of the JII, conventional or interest rate, Islamic policy rate, and monetary base are assessed to address the research objectives in this paper. This study employs the VAR-VECM and Granger analysis to analyse the phenomenon. The monetary policy transmission mechanism through the financial market channel is the main channel that will be investigated in this paper. The study comprises of introduction, literature review, methodology, and lastly the discussion and conclusion.