Academic literature on the topic 'Money demand function'

This paper examines the long-run stability issue of money demand function in Nepal using the annual data set of 1975-2009 by using the recently developed ARDL modelling to cointegration popularized by Pesaran and Shin (1999). The bounds test shows that there exists the long-run cointegrating relationship among demand for real money balances, real GDP, and interest rate in case of both narrow and broad monetary aggregates. Further, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test reveal that both the long-run narrow and broad money demand functions are stable. The results show that demand for money balance in Nepal is a stable and predictable function of a few variables and the central bank can rely on the monetary aggregates as intermediate targets for achieving the broad economic objectives.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/bj.v3i1.7508 Banking Journal Vol.3(2) 2013 pp.1-27

Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Economics
Steven P. Cassou
This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter surveys recent studies on the stability of the money demand function in selected developing countries. This chapter presents specific details about modeling and estimating the money demand function. Also, reasons behind the mixed results in the literature on the stability of the money demand function are explored as well as providing a guideline for future research on the stability of the money demand function in developing countries. The second chapter empirically investigates the stability of the money demand function in South Korea and Malaysia. The conventional money demand specification and cointegration framework with a single unknown structural break are conducted. The results of the residual-based tests for cointegration reveal that the M1, M2, and M3 demand are stable in the long run in Malaysia. However, there is no evidence of the stability for all three measures of the money demand in South Korea. The results of the residual-based tests suggest that structural breaks in the cointegration vectors are important and need to be accounted for in the specification of the M1, M2, and LF demand in South Korea, where LF includes M2 in addition to the reserves of nonbanking financial institutions and long-term deposits. The third chapter complements the previous chapter. It aims to evaluate the stability of the money demand function in South Korea and Malaysia using a cash in advance model and cointegration framework with one unknown structural break. This theoretical model adds short-term foreign interest rates and real exchange rates in addition to short-term domestic interest rates and real income. Also, the Granger causality and currency substitution analysis are conducted in this chapter. The results of the residuals-based tests indicate that the M2 and LF demand in South Korea, and M1, M2, and M3 demand in Malaysia are stable in the long run. The structural breaks may not be fairly absorbed when a cash in advance model is used for M1 in South Korea. Thus, the residual-based tests suggest that the structural break is still important and needs to be included in the specification of the M1 demand in South Korea.

Countries with unemployment insurance (UI) program can effectively conduct a labor market policy and observe the flow of unemployed-employed. But should we just hand UI over to anyone who has no job? Do individual response to the program in terms of their decision to work or to enjoy more leisure unanimously the same across leisure type characteristic individuals? In a heterogeneous constructed labor search market we derive that introduction of the UI program increases the wage gap between the different individuals when the program impacts the productivity of firm positively. In an empirical investigation of the impact of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment using a job search model, we specify a distribution of duration of unemployment that we estimate using maximum likelihood estimation and find that there is in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY 97) there are 3 types of individuals and the type of leisure individuals present an adverse response to the program: An increase in UI for the highest leisure type leads to a longer duration of unemployment. Whereas the lowest values of leisure do not tend to have an extended duration of unemployment from a positive change in UI. Finally, the response for the type 2 individuals is completely ambiguous as it could either see them having a prolonged duration of unemployment or a shortened period with no work. So a selective increase in unemployment insurance to those with a relatively low value of leisure may decrease the equilibrium rate of unemployment. The second part of the dissertation focuses on modeling money demand and shocks in Cote D'Ivoire for the period of 1960-2009. Unlike Drama and Yao (2010) our result suggests M1 is not in a long-run equilibrium with its determinants real income and expected inflation and therefore unstable. However, the broad definition M2 is cointegrated with its long-run determinants and it is therefore the most appropriate definition of money for the Cote D'Ivoire economy. As a consequence M2 can be used as an alternative to the interest rate as a long run monetary policy instrument.

This research attempts to evaluate the stability of money demand functions and estimate monetary inflation models in the East African Community (EAC), using quarterly aggregate data that range from 2000Q1 to 2012Q3. We used Johansen co-integration analysis to estimate and analyse the stability of the M3 money demand model for each country member of the EAC. From this estimation, we derived a country-specific measure of money overhang. We compared its forecasting power of future inflation with that of money stock growth, and money stock available in the economy. Regarding country-specific money demand functions, with the exception of Uganda, we identified a reasonable and stable country-specific M3 money demand model. Also, for predicting future inflation, the estimation results showed that M3 money stock growth is more reliable in Burundi and in Kenya, while M3 money overhang is preferable in Rwanda and M3 money stock in Tanzania. As both country-specific and regional (EAC area) information on monetary quantity growth and its impact on price level is important to know in a monetary union, we considered the EAC area as a single market and attempted to estimate the aggregate (EAC area) demand functions for broad money M2 and M3 using Johansen co-integration analysis. The estimated long-run aggregate money demand models M2 and M3 appeared to be stable over the sample period. However, the aggregate M2 and M3 at the EAC level were proven to be weakly exogenous, which should discard them for consideration at the EAC level as the intermediate targets variables in order to achieve the overall objective of price stability in the EAC region. Instead, short-term interest rate should be given a prominent role in monetary policy framework at the EAC level.

碩士
國立東華大學
經濟學系
106
Abstract This study investigates the money demand function in Indonesia for the period 1985-2016. In this period many financial liberalizations took place and it includes the 1997 Asian financial crisis and global financial crisis of 2007-2008. This study aims to re-examine the money demand stability in Indonesia. Empirical results suggest that there exists a cointegration relationship between real narrow money and its determinants. This study shows that income and interest rate elasticities are consistent with the theory of money demand. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration approach suggests that narrow money demand occurs structural breaks in 2008 and 2012 which are compatible with global financial crisis and financial liberalization in Indonesia.

碩士
淡江大學
財務金融學系碩士班
97
Most models of the past research on macroeconomic variables are linear ones. However, since Granger and Teräsvirta proposed the smooth transition regression (STR) methodology, discussing macroeconomic variables by applying nonlinear models are going to be the mainstream. The purpose of this paper is to test and diagnose if the money demand of Taiwan exists any nonlinear forms . Empirical results indicate that real M2,real GDP, real exchange rate and saving deposit rate have a long term relationship under some specific threshold value. On the selection of choosing models, it is more suitable to select the LSTECM model which has better capacity than other linear models to explain macroeconomic meanings.

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the foreign trade of Russia and Turkey. Considering the foreign trade volume between the two countries, an experimental study was carried out to determine export and import demand functions of Turkey. The Russian Federation has been one of the countries having an important part in export of Turkey. Whereas textile products have taken the first place within the export of Turkey, petroleum gas and natural gas have taken the first place in import. The data used in the study covered the period between 1995 and 2010 quarterly. The data were obtained from Turkish Republic Central Bank, International Money Fund, Russian Central Bank and Russian Federal Statistics Service databases. According to obtained results, export of Turkey to Russia has affected more from the income of Russia rather than the relative prices, and import of Turkey from Russia has affected more from the income of Turkey rather than the relative prices. When income and price elasticity of export and import demands were analyzed, income and price elasticity of the export demand was noticed as being greater than the income and price elasticity of the import demand.

Abstract This study was initiated to develop a quick, accurate evaluation of the energy usage and demand of hospitals. The computer programs that were available to facilitate such energy studies required more time, accuracy and data than was available in the project scope (i.e. an industrial type of overall energy audit) to perform a long-term energy analysis. The thoroughness required of a comprehensive study of such a complex facility could not, however, be sacrificed for the sake of a quick, expedient solution. A compromise solution that is both accurate and quick was found in the series of nomographs produced by an exhaustive study by the Federal Programs Office of the U.S. Department of Energy. This report, dated June 1, 1979, is entitled, “Architects and Engineers Guide to Energy Conservation in Existing Buildings.” Pertinent nomographs from this report were converted into mathematical functions. These, in turn, were assimilated into a seamless stand alone database application, complete with data entry screens, pull down menus, help messages and data entry screening. The result is an effective, user friendly software program that is simple enough to be used by contractors, but with the accuracy and input variability required of professional energy auditors. The weather data bases includes over four hundred U.S. stations and several hundred international locations, to include bin analysis capabilities at each. The cumulative result of the equations itemized herein, when used for a building analysis, is a consistent match to actual metered energy usage data. This was proven on a dozen comprehensive hospital energy audits, for which over $10 million in actual energy conservation projects were proved. These were done for the Texas Loan Star program using oil overcharge money. There is strong confidence by users of this software that the values this application of nomographs produces are accurate and trustworthy. The calculations are performed quickly and easily enough that many iterations can be done — in the time taken to do a single run on competing software — to evaluation many interrelated project costs and paybacks.

We seek to understand when heterogeneity in agent preferences yields improved outcomes in terms of overall cost. That this might be hoped for is based on the common belief that diversity is advantageous in many multi-agent settings. We investigate this in the context of routing. Our main result is a sharp characterization of the network settings in which diversity always helps, versus those in which it is sometimes harmful. Specifically, we consider routing games, where diversity arises in the way that agents trade-off two criteria (such as time and money, or, in the case of stochastic delays, expectation and variance of delay). Our main contributions are: 1) A participant-oriented measure of cost in the presence of agent diversity; 2) A full characterization of those network topologies for which diversity always helps, for all latency functions and demands.

Irrespective of whether advanced economies (AEs) or emerging market economies (EMEs), the number one problem of the global economy is not being able to generate a satisfactory growth. Income levels is in some countries are barely above the per-crisis level. Despite ample liquidity due to quantitative monetary policies, consumption and investment demands are weak. Because high level of indebtedness deter economic agents from using credit. Credit markets still do not function well either. Quantitative easing policies have been successful in containing further deterioration. Despite ample liquidity inflation has not risen, but it did delivered the expected growth. Because banking system in AEs is weak and monetary transmission mechanisms are not functioning well. As for EMEs, commodity prices and World trade appears to be weak; economic growth are slowing down, capex is visibly falling in heavy industrial sectors due to already existing excess capacity. The academia as well as the business community are worried about the appropriateness of the present policies in case another recession comes, central banks will have little ammunition to deal with it. The option being talked of now is what is dubbed as “helicopter Money”. Turkey being an open economy, has been and will be effected by the developments in the global economy through trade, capital flows and expectation channels. By international standards, Turkey have a reasonable growth rate of 3 to 4 %, implying a new growth era where high growth cycle ended due to changing global financial conditions and its structural problems. Future growth performance will depend on the level of investments and savings to finance it. As her own saving is low, foreign capital flows is crucial. High inflation and interest rate are the two negatives, but it has a strong fiscal position, debt / GDP is 32.3%, the budget is almost balanced, producing primary surplus which proved it is resilience in the face of recent failed coup and the negative attitudes displayed by the rating agencies.

Attention to safety and health are of ever-increasing priority to industrial organizations. Good Safety is demanded by stockholders, employees, and the community while increasing injury costs provide additional motivation for safety and health excellence. Safety has always been a strong corporate value of DuPont and a vital part of its culture. As a result, DuPont has become a benchmark in safety and health performance. Since 1990, DuPont has re-engineered itself to meet global competition and address future vision. In the new re-engineered organizational structures, DuPont has also had to re-engineer its safety management systems. A special Discovery Team was chartered by DuPont senior management to determine the “best practices’ for safety and health being used in DuPont best-performing sites. A summary of the findings is presented, and five of the practices are discussed. Excellence in safety and health management is more important today than ever. Public awareness, federal and state regulations, and enlightened management have resulted in a widespread conviction that all employees have the right to work in an environment that will not adversely affect their safety and health. In DuPont, we believe that excellence in safety and health is necessary to achieve global competitiveness, maintain employee loyalty, and be an accepted member of the communities in which we make, handle, use, and transport products. Safety can also be the “catalyst” to achieving excellence in other important business parameters. The organizational and communication skills developed by management, individuals, and teams in safety can be directly applied to other company initiatives. As we look into the 21st Century, we must also recognize that new organizational structures (flatter with empowered teams) will require new safety management techniques and systems in order to maintain continuous improvement in safety performance. Injury costs, which have risen dramatically in the past twenty years, provide another incentive for safety and health excellence. Shown in the Figure 1, injury costs have increased even after correcting for inflation. Many companies have found these costs to be an “invisible drain” on earnings and profitability. In some organizations, significant initiatives have been launched to better manage the workers’ compensation systems. We have found that the ultimate solution is to prevent injuries and incidents before they occur. A globally-respected company, DuPont is regarded as a well-managed, extremely ethical firm that is the benchmark in industrial safety performance. Like many other companies, DuPont has re-engineered itself and downsized its operations since 1985. Through these changes, we have maintained dedication to our principles and developed new techniques to manage in these organizational environments. As a diversified company, our operations involve chemical process facilities, production line operations, field activities, and sales and distribution of materials. Our customer base is almost entirely industrial and yet we still maintain a high level of consumer awareness and positive perception. The DuPont concern for safety dates back to the early 1800s and the first days of the company. In 1802 E.I. DuPont, a Frenchman, began manufacturing quality grade explosives to fill America’s growing need to build roads, clear fields, increase mining output, and protect its recently won independence. Because explosives production is such a hazardous industry, DuPont recognized and accepted the need for an effective safety effort. The building walls of the first powder mill near Wilmington, Delaware, were built three stones thick on three sides. The back remained open to the Brandywine River to direct any explosive forces away from other buildings and employees. To set the safety example, DuPont also built his home and the homes of his managers next to the powder yard. An effective safety program was a necessity. It represented the first defense against instant corporate liquidation. Safety needs more than a well-designed plant, however. In 1811, work rules were posted in the mill to guide employee work habits. Though not nearly as sophisticated as the safety standards of today, they did introduce an important basic concept — that safety must be a line management responsibility. Later, DuPont introduced an employee health program and hired a company doctor. An early step taken in 1912 was the keeping of safety statistics, approximately 60 years before the federal requirement to do so. We had a visible measure of our safety performance and were determined that we were going to improve it. When the nation entered World War I, the DuPont Company supplied 40 percent of the explosives used by the Allied Forces, more than 1.5 billion pounds. To accomplish this task, over 30,000 new employees were hired and trained to build and operate many plants. Among these facilities was the largest smokeless powder plant the world had ever seen. The new plant was producing granulated powder in a record 116 days after ground breaking. The trends on the safety performance chart reflect the problems that a large new work force can pose until the employees fully accept the company’s safety philosophy. The first arrow reflects the World War I scale-up, and the second arrow represents rapid diversification into new businesses during the 1920s. These instances of significant deterioration in safety performance reinforced DuPont’s commitment to reduce the unsafe acts that were causing 96 percent of our injuries. Only 4 percent of injuries result from unsafe conditions or equipment — the remainder result from the unsafe acts of people. This is an important concept if we are to focus our attention on reducing injuries and incidents within the work environment. World War II brought on a similar set of demands. The story was similar to World War I but the numbers were even more astonishing: one billion dollars in capital expenditures, 54 new plants, 75,000 additional employees, and 4.5 billion pounds of explosives produced — 20 percent of the volume used by the Allied Forces. Yet, the performance during the war years showed no significant deviation from the pre-war years. In 1941, the DuPont Company was 10 times safer than all industry and 9 times safer than the Chemical Industry. Management and the line organization were finally working as they should to control the real causes of injuries. Today, DuPont is about 50 times safer than US industrial safety performance averages. Comparing performance to other industries, it is interesting to note that seemingly “hazard-free” industries seem to have extraordinarily high injury rates. This is because, as DuPont has found out, performance is a function of injury prevention and safety management systems, not hazard exposure. Our success in safety results from a sound safety management philosophy. Each of the 125 DuPont facilities is responsible for its own safety program, progress, and performance. However, management at each of these facilities approaches safety from the same fundamental and sound philosophy. This philosophy can be expressed in eleven straightforward principles. The first principle is that all injuries can be prevented. That statement may seem a bit optimistic. In fact, we believe that this is a realistic goal and not just a theoretical objective. Our safety performance proves that the objective is achievable. We have plants with over 2,000 employees that have operated for over 10 years without a lost time injury. As injuries and incidents are investigated, we can always identify actions that could have prevented that incident. If we manage safety in a proactive — rather than reactive — manner, we will eliminate injuries by reducing the acts and conditions that cause them. The second principle is that management, which includes all levels through first-line supervisors, is responsible and accountable for preventing injuries. Only when senior management exerts sustained and consistent leadership in establishing safety goals, demanding accountability for safety performance and providing the necessary resources, can a safety program be effective in an industrial environment. The third principle states that, while recognizing management responsibility, it takes the combined energy of the entire organization to reach sustained, continuous improvement in safety and health performance. Creating an environment in which employees feel ownership for the safety effort and make significant contributions is an essential task for management, and one that needs deliberate and ongoing attention. The fourth principle is a corollary to the first principle that all injuries are preventable. It holds that all operating exposures that may result in injuries or illnesses can be controlled. No matter what the exposure, an effective safeguard can be provided. It is preferable, of course, to eliminate sources of danger, but when this is not reasonable or practical, supervision must specify measures such as special training, safety devices, and protective clothing. Our fifth safety principle states that safety is a condition of employment. Conscientious assumption of safety responsibility is required from all employees from their first day on the job. Each employee must be convinced that he or she has a responsibility for working safely. The sixth safety principle: Employees must be trained to work safely. We have found that an awareness for safety does not come naturally and that people have to be trained to work safely. With effective training programs to teach, motivate, and sustain safety knowledge, all injuries and illnesses can be eliminated. Our seventh principle holds that management must audit performance on the workplace to assess safety program success. Comprehensive inspections of both facilities and programs not only confirm their effectiveness in achieving the desired performance, but also detect specific problems and help to identify weaknesses in the safety effort. The Company’s eighth principle states that all deficiencies must be corrected promptly. Without prompt action, risk of injuries will increase and, even more important, the credibility of management’s safety efforts will suffer. Our ninth principle is a statement that off-the-job safety is an important part of the overall safety effort. We do not expect nor want employees to “turn safety on” as they come to work and “turn it off” when they go home. The company safety culture truly becomes of the individual employee’s way of thinking. The tenth principle recognizes that it’s good business to prevent injuries. Injuries cost money. However, hidden or indirect costs usually exceed the direct cost. Our last principle is the most important. Safety must be integrated as core business and personal value. There are two reasons for this. First, we’ve learned from almost 200 years of experience that 96 percent of safety incidents are directly caused by the action of people, not by faulty equipment or inadequate safety standards. But conversely, it is our people who provide the solutions to our safety problems. They are the one essential ingredient in the recipe for a safe workplace. Intelligent, trained, and motivated employees are any company’s greatest resource. Our success in safety depends upon the men and women in our plants following procedures, participating actively in training, and identifying and alerting each other and management to potential hazards. By demonstrating a real concern for each employee, management helps establish a mutual respect, and the foundation is laid for a solid safety program. This, of course, is also the foundation for good employee relations. An important lesson learned in DuPont is that the majority of injuries are caused by unsafe acts and at-risk behaviors rather than unsafe equipment or conditions. In fact, in several DuPont studies it was estimated that 96 percent of injuries are caused by unsafe acts. This was particularly revealing when considering safety audits — if audits were only focused on conditions, at best we could only prevent four percent of our injuries. By establishing management systems for safety auditing that focus on people, including audit training, techniques, and plans, all incidents are preventable. Of course, employee contribution and involvement in auditing leads to sustainability through stakeholdership in the system. Management safety audits help to make manage the “behavioral balance.” Every job and task performed at a site can do be done at-risk or safely. The essence of a good safety system ensures that safe behavior is the accepted norm amongst employees, and that it is the expected and respected way of doing things. Shifting employees norms contributes mightily to changing culture. The management safety audit provides a way to quantify these norms. DuPont safety performance has continued to improve since we began keeping records in 1911 until about 1990. In the 1990–1994 time frame, performance deteriorated as shown in the chart that follows: This increase in injuries caused great concern to senior DuPont management as well as employees. It occurred while the corporation was undergoing changes in organization. In order to sustain our technological, competitive, and business leadership positions, DuPont began re-engineering itself beginning in about 1990. New streamlined organizational structures and collaborative work processes eliminated many positions and levels of management and supervision. The total employment of the company was reduced about 25 percent during these four years. In our traditional hierarchical organization structures, every level of supervision and management knew exactly what they were expected to do with safety, and all had important roles. As many of these levels were eliminated, new systems needed to be identified for these new organizations. In early 1995, Edgar S. Woolard, DuPont Chairman, chartered a Corporate Discovery Team to look for processes that will put DuPont on a consistent path toward a goal of zero injuries and occupational illnesses. The cross-functional team used a mode of “discovery through learning” from as many DuPont employees and sites around the world. The Discovery Team fostered the rapid sharing and leveraging of “best practices” and innovative approaches being pursued at DuPont’s plants, field sites, laboratories, and office locations. In short, the team examined the company’s current state, described the future state, identified barriers between the two, and recommended key ways to overcome these barriers. After reporting back to executive management in April, 1995, the Discovery Team was realigned to help organizations implement their recommendations. The Discovery Team reconfirmed key values in DuPont — in short, that all injuries, incidents, and occupational illnesses are preventable and that safety is a source of competitive advantage. As such, the steps taken to improve safety performance also improve overall competitiveness. Senior management made this belief clear: “We will strengthen our business by making safety excellence an integral part of all business activities.” One of the key findings of the Discovery Team was the identification of the best practices used within the company, which are listed below: ▪ Felt Leadership – Management Commitment ▪ Business Integration ▪ Responsibility and Accountability ▪ Individual/Team Involvement and Influence ▪ Contractor Safety ▪ Metrics and Measurements ▪ Communications ▪ Rewards and Recognition ▪ Caring Interdependent Culture; Team-Based Work Process and Systems ▪ Performance Standards and Operating Discipline ▪ Training/Capability ▪ Technology ▪ Safety and Health Resources ▪ Management and Team Audits ▪ Deviation Investigation ▪ Risk Management and Emergency Response ▪ Process Safety ▪ Off-the-Job Safety and Health Education Attention to each of these best practices is essential to achieve sustained improvements in safety and health. The Discovery Implementation in conjunction with DuPont Safety and Environmental Management Services has developed a Safety Self-Assessment around these systems. In this presentation, we will discuss a few of these practices and learn what they mean. Paper published with permission.