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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Monetary policy modelling'
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Meenagh, David. "Modelling monetary policy and financial markets." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2006. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/55154/.
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Simpson, A. K. "The instrument problem in monetary policy." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.305857.
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Bhanthumnavin, Kanyarat. "Macroeconomic modelling and monetary policy rule optimization for Thailand." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416531.
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Mehari, Tesfamariam. "Modelling monetary and fiscal policy in Ethiopia : a macroeconometric approach." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 1998. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/4911/.
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Beyer, Andreas H. "Monetary transmission mechanisms and central bank policy : essays in econometric modelling." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.262907.
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Wan, Lai Shan. "Macroeconomic modelling and policy simulation for the Chinese economy." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2002. http://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/335.
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Shaheen, Rozina. "An empirical evaluation of monetary and fiscal policy in Pakistan." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2013. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/12319.
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This thesis studies the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policies to achieve the basic macroeconomic objectives of stable prices with sustainable growth in Pakistan. Using data from December 1981 till June 2008, the changes in the monetary policy stance are shown to be capable of affecting the domestic price level and output growth. This thesis also tests the fiscal theory of price determination using quarterly data for the sample period 1977q1-2009q4, by investigating the relationship between the fiscal deficit, debt accumulation and inflation dynamics. The estimates reveal that there exists a fiscal dominant regime for most of the sample period since the fiscal authority is insensitive to monetary policy in the sense that neither taxes nor expenditure react (now or in the future) to the changes in the stock of outstanding government debt. It is also found that changes in the primary deficit exert an effect on aggregate demand which is also evidence of an active fiscal policy regime. This study also explores the indirect channels of fiscal regime by including a monetary, real sector, exchange rate and the consolidated budget deficit variables in three different specifications of vector error correction models and finds the monetary and fiscal variables as the key determinants of inflation in Pakistan. It also suggests a positive and significant relationship between the budget deficit and seigniorage revenues, confirming the monetisation of the fiscal deficit and indirect evidence of the fiscal dominance in the economy. In addition, this thesis employs a SVAR specification of exogenous fiscal policy shocks to observe the relative effectiveness of fiscal multipliers and finds their significant role to affect inflation and output in the economy. Finally this study develops and estimates a small macro-econometric model and then it is used to assess the relative performance of the monetary and fiscal policies in Pakistan. Policy simulations suggest that if Pakistan follows a rule based regime then macroeconomic stability can be improved in terms of the stability of output and inflation.
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Chevapatrakul, Thanaset. "Modelling and forecasting the performance of monetary policy rules for the United Kingdom." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416408.
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Anwar, Muslimin. "Modelling exchange rates and monetary policy in emerging Asian economies : non-linear econometric approach." Thesis, Brunel University, 2007. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/4865.
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In this thesis we examine exchange rates and monetary policy of four emerging Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea. We model equilibrium exchange rates using a general behavioural specification consistent with a variety of theoretical approaches; and short-run dynamics using a general non-linear adjustment model. We find in all countries examined, equilibrium nominal and real exchange rates are a function of permanent relative output and one or more variables from domestic and foreign price levels, nominal and real interest rate differentials, the level of and changes in net foreign assets, and a time trend. These results imply that individual countries present significant elements of idiosyncratic behaviour, casting doubt on empirical models using panel-data techniques. We also obtain evidence of non-linear exchange rate dynamics, with the speed of adjustment to equilibrium being in all cases a function of the size, and in two cases, the sign of the misalignment term. With respect to monetary policy, we examined these countries' monetary policy reaction function based on an open economy augmented Taylor rule including the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. Using a formal testing approach, our tests reject linearity, suggesting that monetary authorities in these four emerging economies are subject to nonlinear inflation effects and that they respond more vigorously to inflation when it is further from the target. Our results also lead us to speculate that policymakers in three countries may have been attempting to keep inflation within the range, while those in the other country may have been pursuing a point inflation target. Finally, we also find monetary policy is asymmetric as policy makers respond differently to upward and downward deviations of inflation away from the target.
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Smart, Graham. "An ethnographic study of knowledge-making in a central bank : the interplay of writing and economic modelling." Thesis, McGill University, 1997. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=35619.
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A major contribution of research in workplace literacy has been to explore the part that writing plays in the knowledge-making practices of various professional groups. While such enquiry has revealed that writing is essential to the creation and use of specialized knowledge in the professions, it also points to the need to see writing as part of a larger network of symbolic activity. Researchers have shown that practitioners in certain professions---for example, engineering and architecture---do not produce knowledge solely through the social negotiations of language; rather, acts of writing and reading merge with other symbol-based practices in larger processes of knowledge-making.A promising area for further research in this regard is the field of economics, where knowledge is constituted through a discourse combining language, mathematics, and visual forms such as graphs. The study reported here examines a particular site of such knowledge-making: the Ottawa head office of the Bank of Canada. Employing an ethnographic methodology that included interviews, informal conversations, on-site observations, reading protocols, tape-recorded meetings, and text analysis, the study examines an ongoing, writing-intensive activity known in the Bank as the "monetary policy process," in which the institution's economists generate knowledge about Present and probable future conditions in the Canadian economy and use this knowledge in formulating and implementing policy.
The central question guiding the study is this: what is the nature of the intellectual collaboration that enables the Bank's economists to transform large amounts of statistical data into focused written knowledge about the Canadian economy and then use this knowledge in making decisions about monetary policy? The study shows that the "monetary policy process" can be viewed as a communal activity in which the economists employ a set of written genres in combination with mathematical models---most importantly, the computer-run Quarterly Projection Model---to carry out their work. The joint, intermeshed use of writing and modelling gives rise to a distinctive pattern of social interaction and a style of collective thinking that allow the economists to produce specialized knowledge about the economy and apply this knowledge to decision-making.
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Chatziantoniou, Ioannis. "Essays on macroeconometric modelling : housing and financial markets in the light of inflation targeting monetary policy : evidence from the United Kingdom." Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 2013. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/essays-on-macroeconometric-modelling(56288b70-6135-4ad6-9ebe-6a13602bd747).html.
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The aim of this study is to present four essays related to the macroeconometric modelling of specific relations within the economy of the United Kingdom for the period 1992-2012. The focal point of these essays is the link between inflation targeting monetary policy decision making and housing or financial prices. In particular, we investigate whether traditional channels of monetary policy are still in effect under the adopted monetary policy regime. At the same time, findings associated with the specific relation between both asset markets or with the various working assumptions which facilitate our investigation are also reported. The specific econometric methods employed include the development of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR), Markov regime-switching, as well as, multivariate generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (MGARCH) models. The formulation of these models is predicated upon the selection of appropriate approximations for all financial and macroeconomic indicators of interest. The main findings of the first essay suggest that under the inflation targeting monetary policy regime, innovations in the monetary policy instrument have no direct effect on the stock market as previously suggested by traditional channels of monetary policy. The said innovations though, appear to have a significant negative impact on the housing market. Furthermore, variation in the stock market can be explained by innovations in the housing market. Turning to the second essay, prominent among our results is the fact that innovations in fiscal policy have a significantly negative effect on the stock market (direct impact). In addition, the effects of monetary policy on the stock market also become negative (indirect impact). According to the third essay when both the stock and the housing market are in a highly volatile regime, then contractionary monetary policy pushes both markets to remain at that regime. Finally, the main outcome from the fourth essay is that the time-varying correlation between monetary policy and housing or financial prices becomes stronger during turbulent times. Overall, our findings suggest that within an inflation targeting monetary policy regime the effects of monetary policy decisions on the stock market strongly depend on the broader economic conditions. By contrast, traditional monetary policy channels with respect to the housing market appear to be in effect; however, broader economic conditions have a key role to play in this case as well.
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Jayamaha, Ranee. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka 1977-1985 : a macro simulation approach to the modelling of the money supply process and the construction of an analytical framework for monetary management." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/4341.
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The primary objective of this thesis is to analyse the relationship between money and the macro-economy in Sri Lanka between 1977 and 1985, in order to identify the paths through which monetary policy impulses are transmitted over this period. In doing so, - we also hope to highlight the use of macro-simulation as a tool for the analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and to emphasise the importance of formulating monetary policy within an explicit monetary control framework. This is especially important in Sri Lanka since monetary policy has been a key instrument of demand management since 1977 and historically there has been a noticeable absence of an explicit monetary control framework. Empirical research on the monetary transmission mechanism has been very limited as far as developing countries are concerned. An exception here is the SEACEN (1981) study which simulates the effects of monetary shocks on a number of South East Asian countries, including Sri Lanka, using a flexible monetarist approach. Our research is based upon a revision of the specification of this model for Sri Lanka and a more comprehensive disaggregation of the monetary transmission channels. Our empirical model produces statistical results which are generally acceptable and conform to a Priori expectations. This model is then simulated dynamically, both, to validate the equations in the context of a complete model and to quantify the impact of alternative policy scenarios relating to the monetary transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka. We believe that our results will help to shed light on the nature of the monetary transmission mechanism in developing countries as well as provide the basis for an on-going analysis of monetary management in Sri Lanka.
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Ozel, Bulent. "Designing scalable and stock-flow-consistent agent-based models: Policy scenarios and experiments on housing markets, monetary unions and interbank networks." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Jaume I, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/666909.
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The recent debates in economics, following the 2008 crisis, have pointed out a necessity for micro-founded macroeconomic modelling approaches for policy analyses. Agent based models have been adopted to address two underlining aspects of a micro-founded macroeconomic approach.
This dissertation as a whole is an effort at fulfilling this necessity. It is composed of a number of interrelated studies. Specific research questions are raised around the debates on monetary unions, housing markets and interbank networks. The overall objective in these works is to be able to address policy questions while employing sound and reusable stock-flow-consistent models. A common methodological practice is elicited at reaching this objective: delineating the design of a top-down policy experimentation set-up from the design of individual agent behaviors for a bottom up emergence first, and then coupling them back to reach a conceptual coherence between the policy issue and the assumptions on agents’ behavioral choices.Los recientes debates en economía tras la crisis de 2008, han señalado la necesidad de utilizar modelos macroeconómicos micro fundados para el análisis de políticas. Se han utilizado modelos basados en agentes para abordar dos aspectos destacados dentro de los modelos macroeconómicos micro fundados. Esta tesis es un esfuerzo para satisfacer esta necesidad. Se compone de una serie de es tudios interrelacionados. En ella se plantean cuestiones específicas en torno a los debates sobre uniones monetarias, mercados de vivienda y redes interbancarias. El objetivo general de estos trabajos es poder abordar diferentes cuestiones de política económica, a la vez que se utilizan modelos sólidos y stock-flujo consistentes reutilizables. Se utiliza una misma metodología para lograr este objetivo: primero, delinear un entorno de experimentación de políticas de arriba hacia abajo a partir del diseño de comportamientos de agentes individuales para una emergencia ascendente, para luego unirlos de nuevo para alcanzar una coherencia conceptual entre la cuestión de política introducida y los supuestos sobre las elecciones de comportamiento de los agentes.
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BONDZIE, ERIC AMOO. "SAGGI SULLA TRASMISSIONE DELLA POLITICA MONETARIA E FISCALE NEI PAESI IN VIA DI SVILUPPO IN PRESENZA DI SHADOW ECONOMY." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/37375.
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Gli studi sulla politica monetaria e fiscale suggeriscono che l'economia sommersa o informale è un potente cuscinetto in grado di assorbire i canali di trasmissione delle politiche macroeconomiche. In questo lavoro, sviluppiamo un modello DSGE con economia sommersa al fine di analizzarne l’impatto sui canali di trasmissione delle politiche monetarie e fiscali nei paesi emergenti e in via di sviluppo. La tesi è organizzata in tre capitoli. Il primo capitolo cerca di esaminare gli effetti di trasmissione e l'efficacia della politica monetaria e di altri shock strutturali attraverso l’interazione con l’economia sommersa. Il nostro modello determina se la presenza di un'economia sommersa influisce sulle risposte dell'economia ufficiale e chiarisce anche i cambiamenti nel meccanismo di trasmissione all'interno di entrambi i settori. Il secondo capitolo descrive un nuovo modello DSGE keynesiano con economia sommersa e analizza il ruolo delle politiche fiscali sul ciclo economico aggregato. In questo capitolo, abbiamo cercato di chiarire se la presenza di un'economia sommersa riduca o incrementi l'effetto delle trasmissioni di politica fiscale. Abbiamo anche cercato di capire se le politiche fiscali possono essere utilizzate per stabilizzare l'economia in risposta agli shock. Nel terzo capitolo, studiamo l'interazione tra i consumatori e la presenza di un'economia sommersa focalizzandoci sugli shock della politica fiscale. L‘obiettivo è sapere se l'introduzione di un'economia sommersa indebolisca l'effetto amplificativo dei consumatori sul moltiplicatore fiscale.Theoretical literature on monetary and fiscal policy have suggested that shadow economy or the informal sector is a powerful buffer which absorbs large proportions of the transmission channels of macroeconomic policies. We develop a theoretical DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate their impact on the transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in developing and emerging countries. The thesis is organised in three chapters as follows. Chapter one seeks to examine the transmission effects and efficacy of monetary policy and other structural shocks with the interaction of shadow economy. Our model determines whether the presence of shadow economy affects the responses of the official economy and also clarifies the changes in the transmission mechanism within both sectors. The second chapter describes a new Keynesian DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate business cycle. In this chapter, we sought to elucidate whether the presence of shadow economy dampens or amplifies the effect of fiscal policy transmissions. We further tried to understand whether fiscal policies can be used to stabilise the economy in response to shocks. In chapter three, we study the interplay of rule-of-thumb consumers and the presence of shadow economy focusing on fiscal policy disturbances. Our basic motivation is to know whether the incorporation of shadow economy weakens the amplifying effect of rule-of-thumb consumers on fiscal multipliers.
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GARCIA, BARRAGAN FERNANDO. "ESSAYS ON FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION AND POLICIES." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/4374.
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Negli ultimi dieci anni siamo stati testimoni di una delle più grandi crisi che il mondo ha visto. Il lavoro dei macroeconomisti è diventato più attivo, nell'urgenza di trovare la via d'uscita, molti degli strumenti applicati per la professione di economista sono stati rispolverati ed aggiornati per le nuove esigenze della crisi economica. Tra gli strumenti per la ricerca economica c'è lo modello dinamico stocastico di equilibrio generale (DSGE). Questa tesi è composta da quattro capitoli che coinvolgono l'intermediazione e/o politiche condotte dai governi o banche centrali finanziarie. I primi tre capitoli partono sul modello DSGE mentre l' ultimo su un modello macroeconomico principale-agente. Il primo (scritto come una rassegna delle principali indagini in DSGE) trata dei cicli di credito, di acceleratori finanziari, del mercato immobiliare, del settore bancario, dell'assunzione dei rischi e delle politiche monetarie. Il secondo analizza l'impatto delle variazioni tra il rapporto di leva e le riserve necessarie all'interno, che al giorno d'oggi regolano alcune delle politiche popolari. Il terzo capitolo incorpora un mercato dei prestiti interbancari per l'analisi degli shock di rischio generato nel settore bancario e come si sviluppa l'economia. Il quarto invece è un'indagine che si scosta dal modello macroeconomico principale-agente; comprende un governo attivo con le tasse e sussidi di disoccupazione.During the last decade we were witness of one of the biggest crises that the world has seen. The job of the macroeconomists became more active, in the urgency for finding the way out; many of the tools applied for the economist profession were dusted off and updated for the new needs of the economic crisis. Among the tools for economic research there is the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE). This dissertation consists of four chapters involved in financial intermediation and/or policies conducted by the governments or central banks. The first three chapters depart from the DSGE model while the last is a macroeconomic agent based model. The first, written as a review of the main investigations in the DSGE, covers several fields as credit cycles, financial accelerator, housing market, banking sector, risk taking and monetary policies. The second chapter analyses the impacts of changes in the leverage ratio and the required reserves within, some of the popular regulation policies nowadays. The third chapter incorporates an interbank lending market for the analysis of risk shocks generated in the banking sector and how it is spread to the economy. The fourth chapter is an investigation that departs from the macroeconomic agent based model; it incorporates an active government with taxes and unemployment subsidies.
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FERRARA, MARIA. "DISINFLAZIONE E CONSOLIDAMENTO FISCALE CON PARTECIPAZIONE LIMITATA AI MERCATI DEGLI ASSETS." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/4372.
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1. Può un Modello DSGE spiegare una disinflazione costosa?
Questo lavoro mostra che un modello DSGE non è in grado di spiegare una disinflazione costosa con indicizzazione parziale e bassa dei prezzi e dei salari. Il modello invece è in grado di replicare una disinflazione recessiva sostituendo il meccanismo di modellizazione delle rigidità nominali di Calvo (1983) con quello di Rotemberg (1982).
2. Disinflazione e Diseguaglianza in un Modello Monetario DSGE: Un’Analisi di Welfare
Questo lavoro analizza gli effetti redistributivi di una politica disinflazionistica in un modello DSGE con Partecipazione Limitata ai Mercati degli Assets. Due sono i meccanismi che guidano a distribuzione del consumo e del reddito: il markup delle imprese e il cosiddetto vincolo cash in advance. I risultati suggeriscono che la disinflazione aumenta inequivocabilmente la diseguaglianza con il meccanismo di Rotemberg. Invece con il meccanismo di Calvo questo effetto viene ottenuto soltanto se le imprese non sono costrette ad indebitarsi per finanziare il fattore lavoro.
3. Consolidamento Fiscale e Consumatori Rule of Thumb
Questo lavoro simula un esperimento di consolidamento fiscale in un modello DSGE con partecipazione limitata ai mercati degli assets. I risultati mostrano che durante un processo di consolidamento fiscale riduzioni temporanee delle tasse o aumenti temporanei di transfers consentono sia di ridurre il debito che stimolare il consumo.1. Can a DSGE Model Explain a Costly Disinflation? This paper shows that a medium scale DSGE model fails to explain a costly disinflation with low and partial indexation of prices and wages. Alternatively to Calvo (1982) price setting, with the Rotemberg (1982) framework the model can replicate a recessionary disinflation for any indexation degree. 2. Disinflation and Inequality in a DSGE Monetary Model: A Welfare Analysis This paper investigates the redistributive effects of a disinflation experiment in a standard DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation. There are two key mechanisms driving consumption and income distribution: firms’ markup and the cash in advance channel. Results show that disinflation unambiguously increases inequality under Rotemberg. Under Calvo this effect only obtains if the cash in advance doesn’t bind firms ability to finance their working capital. 3. Fiscal Consolidation and Rule of Thumb Consumers: Gain With or Without Pain? This paper simulates a fiscal consolidation in a medium scale DSGE model augmented with Limited Asset Market Participation. Results show that during the consolidation process temporary tax reductions or temporary transfer increases allow to both reduce public debt and boost consumption. A countercyclical monetary policy is an effective complement to fiscal policy as stabilization tool.
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Zumpe, Martin Kai. "Stabilité macroéconomique, apprentissage et politique monétaire : une approche comparative : modélisation DSGE versus modélisation multi-agents." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40022/document.
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Cette thèse analyse le rôle de l’apprentissage dans deux cadres de modélisation distincts. Dans le cas dunouveau modèle canonique avec apprentissage adaptatif, les caractéristiques les plus marquantes des dynamiquesd’apprentissage concernent la capacité des règles de politique monétaire à assurer la convergencevers l’équilibre en anticipations rationnelles. Le mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire estcelui de l’effet de substitution associé au canal de la consommation. Dans le cas d’un modèle multi-agentsqui relâche des hypothèses restrictives du nouveau modèle canonique, tout en restant structurellementproche de celui-ci, les variables agrégées évoluent à bonne distance de cet équilibre, et on observe desdynamiques nettement différentes. La politique monétaire influence les variables agrégées de manièremarginale via l’effet de revenu du canal de la consommation. En présence d’un processus d’apprentissagesocial évolutionnaire, l’économie converge vers un faible niveau d’activité économique. L’introductiond’un processus caractérisé par le fait que les agents apprennent individuellement à l’aide de leurs modèlesmentaux atténue le caractère dépressif des dynamiques d’apprentissage. Ces différences entre les deuxcadres de modélisation démontrent la difficulté de généraliser les résultats du nouveau modèle canoniqueThis thesis analyses the role of learning in two different modelling frameworks. In the new canonicalmodel with adaptive learning, the most remarkable characteristics of the learning dynamics deal withthe capacity of monetary policy rules to guaranty convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium.The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is based on the substitution effect associated to theconsumption channel. In the case of an agent-based model which relaxes some restrictive assumptionsof the new canonical model - but is endowed with a similar structure - aggregate variables evolve atsome distance from the rational expectations equilibrium. Monetary policy has a marginal impact onthe agregated variables via the wealth effect of the consumption channel. When agents learn accordingto an evolutionnary social learning process, the economy converges to regions of low economic activity.The introduction of a process where agents learn individually by using their mental models induces lessdepressive learning dynamics. These differences between the two modelling frameworks show that thegeneralisation of the results of the new canonical model is not easy to achieve
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ASSENZA, TIZIANA. "Saggi su fattori monetari e finanziari in economie creditizie." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/114.
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La tesi si colloca nel filone di letteratura dell' Acceleratore Finanziario, che si è sviluppato a partire dagli anni 90. Il lavoro prende le mosse dai modelli di Kiyotaki e Moore (KM,1997, 2002) e di Greenwald e Stiglitz (GS 1993, 2003). L'obiettivo è quello di tentare di rispondere ad alcuni quesiti che sorgono spontaneamente dallo studio di questa tipologia di modelli, inquadrando le idee proposte in una modellistica teorica adeguata. La tesi si compone di 7 capitoli. Nei primi due capitoli viene presentato e discusso, sia in chiave microeconomica che in chiave macroeconomica, il framework proposto da KM.
Nel capitolo 3 si introduce il problema della bancarotta e si esplorano gli effetti di eventuali bancarotte sui mercati dei beni e sui mercati finanziari.
Nel capitolo 4 viene presentato e discusso un articolo di Cordoba e Ripoll (2004a) nel quale gli autori sviluppano un modello à la KM introducendo il ruolo della moneta tramite l'approccio del Cash In Advance (CIA) constraint .
Nel quinto capitolo viene presentato e discusso un contributo originale che introduce il ruolo della moneta nel modello di KM tramite l'approccio della Moneta nella Funzione di Utilità. Il modello è relativamente semplice possono emergere equilibri multipli e permette di esplorare gli effetti della politica monetaria sulle variabili macroeconomiche.
Nel capitolo 6 si presenta un modello a generazioni sovrapposte à la Diamond-Samuelson utilizzando il framework di KM. In tale contesto la moneta ha essenzialmente il ruolo di riserva di valore (permette di incrementare il consumo e il bequest da vecchi), mentre il bequest rappresenta una risorsa a disposizione del giovane.
In fine il modello presentato nel capitolo 7 è un esempio di un modello macroeconomico microfondato con vincoli finanziari e agenti eterogenei à la Greenwald-Stiglitz. Viene presentata una procedura di aggregazione che permette di ottenere le variabili macroeconomiche tenendo in considerazione il comportamento individuale degli agenti. Il modello può essere studiato tramite delle simulazioni in una struttura Agent-Based.The dissertation could be traced back to the so called Financial Accelerator literature, that has been developed during the 90's. In particular it is essentially an attempt to adapt, modify or even subvert the basic framework proposed by Kiyotaki and Moore (KM,1997, 2002) and by Greenwald and Stiglitz (GS 1993, 2003) in order to provide answers to some questions that naturally arise from the study of these types of models. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 present and discuss the benchmark model, i.e. the framework put forward by KM, at the micro level (optimization problems of the different types of agents, market equilibrium) and at the macro level (laws of motion of macro state variables) respectively. In chapter 3 we study the conditions under which bankruptcy can occur and we explore the consequences of actual bankruptcies in terms of disruption of financial and goods markets. In chapter 4 we present and discuss a paper by Cordoba and Ripoll in which the role of money in a framework à la KM is introduced by means of the Cash In Advance (CIA) constraint approach. In chapter 5 we follow the Money In the Utility function (MIU) approach to introduce money in the original KM framework. The model seems very promising because is relatively simple, there can be multiple equilibria and the effect of a monetary injection can be explored in a straightforward way. In chapter 6 we model a KM economy in an OLG setting à la Diamond-Samuelson in which money plays basically the role of a store of value, which allows to increase consumption and bequest when old and bequest plays the role of internal resources for the young. The model presented in chapter 7 is an example of a microfounded macroeconomic model with financing constraints and heterogeneous agents of the Greenwald-Stiglitz type. An aggregation procedure is proposed in order to go from the individual to the aggregate variable. The model can be explored by means of simulations in an Agent-Based setting.
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Raputsoane, Leroi Jeremia. "Monetary policy preferences and inflation targeting rules." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/28731.
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The aim of the thesis is to address issues concerning modelling and evaluation of monetary policy by obtaining targeting rules from optimisation techniques using welfare loss functions that capture asymmetries and zone targeting behaviours. The motivation is that the specification of the most widely used monetary policy rule, i.e. the Taylor rule, may not adequately capture the stylised key features of monetary policy practice as has been shown by Nobay and Peel (2003), Aksoy et al. (2006) and Boinet and Martin (2008). The thesis also addresses the importance of the behaviour of certain financial asset prices and their implications in monetary policy decision making. It also analyses the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on domestic interest rates. First, the response of monetary policy to deviations of inflation and output from their target values based on a framework that allows asymmetric and zone targeting monetary authorities’ preferences is estimated.1 Second, the monetary policy reaction function, which is augmented with a comprehensive index that collects and synthesises information from the financial asset markets is estimated for South Africa based on a framework that allows asymmetric and zone targeting monetary authorities’ preferences.2 Third, the impact of uncertainty about the state of the economy on monetary policy in South Africa using a framework that allows asymmetric and zone targeting monetary authorities’ preferences is analysed. The main findings are that the monetary authorities’ response towards inflation is zone symmetric and their response to output fluctuations is asymmetric. The second major finding is that the conditions in the financial asset markets form an important information set for the monetary authorities and that the monetary authorities pay close attention to the conditions in these markets by placing an equal weight on financial asset markets booms and recessions. The empirical results also reveal a significant impact of uncertainty about the state of the economy on domestic interest rates during the inflation targeting period and that the monetary authorities exhibit discretionary behaviour when implementing monetary policy under uncertainty. The thesis contributes to the body of knowledge in the field of economics by addressing important issues in monetary policy design and conduct using a framework that capture the stylised key features of monetary policy practice. All these issues are important in design and conduct of monetary policy. They are currently debated at many central banks including South Africa.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2011.
Economics
unrestricted
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Creamer, Kenneth. "Price setting conduct in South Africa 2002-2007 : implications of microdata for monetary policy." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/9098.
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The objective of this research is to test the hypothesis that pricing conduct in South
Africa, revealed by studies of pricing microdata, can be shown to have an impact on the
modeling and conduct of monetary policy. In order to discern stylised facts about pricing
conduct in South Africa, use is made of two unique microdata sets, which are the unit
level basis of South Africa’s measured CPI and PPI over the period from December 2001
to December 2007. In particular, based on techniques which have been used in
comparable studies in other countries, facts have been brought to light concerning inter
alia the frequency of price changes, the magnitude of price changes, the duration of
prices, heterogeneity in pricing, as well as evidence of seasonality, time-dependence and
state-dependence in pricing conduct. In order to understand the implications of such
pricing conduct, a basic closed economy theoretical model and thereafter an open
economy New Keynesian DSGE model are used to compare the impact of various pricing
assumptions. In general, but with some qualification regarding difficulties that arise in
comparing pricing microdata with pricing conduct estimated in macro models, it is found
that prices are more flexible than those estimated in the open economy DSGE model,
implying sharper but less persistent interest rate responses to various shocks.
Furthermore, the form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve used in the open economy
DSGE model is found to be inconsistent with certain facts revealed through the price
microdata.
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Sunde, Tafirenyika. "A small macro-econometric model for Namibia emphasising the dynamic modelling of the wage-price, productivity and unemployment relationship." Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/21721.
Full textAbstract:
The contribution of this thesis is to build a small macro-econometric model of the Namibian economy, which demonstrates that there is significant statistical support for the hypothesis that there is a contemporaneous relationship between real wage, productivity, unemployment and interest rates in Namibia. This phenomenon has not yet been exploited using macro-econometric modelling, and thus, represents a significant contribution to modelling literature in Namibia. The determination of the sources of unemployment also receives special attention given that high unemployment is a chronic problem in Namibia. All models specified and estimated in the study use the SVAR methodology for the period 1980 to 2013. The study develops a small macro-econometric model using three modular experiments, which include, a basic model, models that separately append demand and exchange rate channels variables to the basic model, and the specification of a small macro-econometric model. The ultimate aim is to find out if monetary policy plays a role in influencing labour market and nominal variables. The hypothesis that the basic real wage, productivity, unemployment rate and interest rate system can be estimated simultaneously is validated. Further, demand and exchange rate channels variables are found to have important additional information, which explains the monetary transmission process, and that shocks to labour market variables affect monetary policy in Namibia. The results also show that the demand channel (import prices and bank credit to the private sector) and the exchange rate channel (nominal exchange rate) variables have important additional information, which affects monetary transmission process in Namibia, which justifies their inclusion in the small macro-econometric model. In addition, shocks to the import price and exchange rate in the macro-econometric model significantly affect labour market variables. However, shocks to bank credit only partially perform as expected, implying that its results need to be considered cautiously. The study further finds that tight monetary policy shocks significantly affect real and nominal variables in Namibia. The results also show that shocks to all variables in the unemployment model significantly affect unemployment, suggesting that the hysteresis assumption is corroborated. This implies that long run aggregate demand is non-neutral in Namibia.Economics
D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)
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"An Economic modelling forecast of the real Deutschemark exchange rate three years after the German economic and money reunification of July 1, 1990." Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5887165.
Full textAbstract:
by Chan Yeung-Ki.Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 54-55).
ABSTRACT --- p.1
TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.2
Chapter I. --- BACKGROUND --- p.3
Chapter II. --- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.7
Purchasing Power Parity --- p.7
Real Exchange Rate --- p.9
Monetary Approach --- p.12
Explaining the model --- p.16
Chapter III. --- APPLICATION --- p.23
Scenario 1 --- p.39
Scenario 2 --- p.41
Chapter IV. --- CONCLUSION --- p.44
EXHIBIT --- p.47
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.54
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Gomes, Ivo Inácio. "Helicopter money in a standard new keynesian model: modelling and simulation." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15999.
Full textAbstract:
Helicopter money is an extremely controversial topic that has been gaining a lot of attention over the last fiveve years or so. In this dissertation I will develop a DSGE model that attempts to explain how this particular form of money creation may afect in‡ation and the output gap. The model presented here characterizes helicopter money as permanent money supply and exploits the consequences of the central bank constraining its capacity to tighten monetary policy in the future by
choosing a contemporaneous increase in helicopter money. The main factors behind the behavior of the output gap and infation are explained by the impact of this constraint upon the formation of future in‡ation and consumption expectations.
The results lead us to the conclusion that for helicopter money to be considered as a viable policy option, the impact of the interest rate constraint on expected future consumption needs to be high enough so that it counter-balances its effect on expected future inflation.O dinheiro de helicóptero é um tema extremamente controverso que tem merecido muita atenção no decorrer dos últimos 5 anos. Nesta dissertação irei desenvolver um modelo DSGE que procura explicar como é que esta forma particular de criação de moeda poderá afectar a infação e o hiato do produto. O modelo apresentado caracteriza o dinheiro de helicóptero como oferta de moeda permanente e explora as consequências do banco central restringir a sua capacidade de seguir uma politica monetária mais restritiva no futuro, aumentando a quantidade de dinheiro de helicóptero presente na economia. Os factores mais relevantes que explicam o comportamento do hiato do produto e da infação são o efeito desta restrição na formação de expectativas de in‡ação e de consumo futuros. Os resultados indicam que, para que o dinheiro de helicóptero seja considerado uma medida viável, o impacto da restrição da taxa de juro nas expectativas de consumo futuro precisa de ser grande o suficiente para contrabalançar o efeito de aumento da expetativa de inflação futura.
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"Die ekonometriese modellering van die Suid-Afrikaanse monetêre stelsel." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/10142.
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