Academic literature on the topic 'Monetary policy Group of Seven countries'

In this paper, we focus on comparability of monetary policies of Visegrád group countries (V4). Main objective of central banks function in V4 countries lies in maintaining price stability. For this purpose, inflation targeting regime is realized in a medium-term focus in V4, which means that there is a certain lag between monetary policy operation and its influence on an inflation target. Central bank does not have a direct impact on its ultimate goals. Therefore, any monetary policy analysis and assumption of its effectiveness comes out from an essential existence of a working transmission mechanism. Thus, changes in settings of monetary policy instruments have to be able to inflict causal changes on intermediary markets and via these markets on target markets. This situation can be modeled by the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with suitable variables. Our main task is to compare a relationship between VAR model responses to predefined impulses for all V4 pairs. We use calibration technique for this purpose. Specifically, we will utilize one-dimensional calibration model with a linear calibration function for deriving unknown parameters. Moreover, we will test a significance of estimated parameters. We distinguish between model parameters for before-crisis- and during-crisis- data, because we suppose that financial crisis affects VAR model parameters significantly. Different responses in each country can mean the inability of the common monetary policy for V4 at present.

Coordination of or at least absence of conflict between monetary and fiscal policies are key to the successful implementation of economic policy. The article aims to use reaction functions to assess whether the monetary and fiscal policies in the countries of the Visegrad Group are in coordination or in conflict and which variables influence their decisions. The central bank is the representative of monetary policy, which has interest rates as its instrument, and the government as the representative of the fiscal policy which has change revenue or spending as a share of GDP as instrument. To obtain the results, multivariate regression analysis is used. The research period is based on quarterly observations from first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2012. Stabilizing role of monetary policy and in some countries also partially stabilizing role of fiscal policy has been found. Another result was that in the case of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, monetary policy appears to play the dominant role, whereas fiscal policy plays dominant role in Hungary. In the case of Slovakia, some different results may be due to Slovakia’s participation in ERM II, which led to the monetary policy, in addition to maintaining price stability, also aiming to maintain a fixed exchange rate and the subsequent entry of Slovakia into the Eurozone and the de facto loss of autonomous monetary policy.

Abstract The aim of this paper is to evaluate mutual interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in the countries of the Visegrad group, i.e. in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The relationship of monetary and fiscal policy - their coordination, cooperation or mutual antagonism - are basic determinants of successful implementation for economic policy of the state. Fiscal and monetary policies usually have different aims, and some conflict situations may arise in practical economic and political decision- making. Each policy has to make its decision with regard to the other one. Methodical approaches of this contribution are based on the game theory, which deals with the analysis of a wide range of decision situations with more participants (players) and it is primarily focused on the conflict situations. This game-theoretical approach is responsible for creating the theoretical model which is then dealt with in the empirical analysis. We find a distinctly stabilizing role of monetary policy and relatively problematic stabilizing role of fiscal policy in the analyzed countries. The dominant role of monetary policy is statistically confirmed in the case of the Czech Republic and Hungary.

This paper examines the impacts of monetary policy shocks on income mobility in the Euro area, relying on earnings heterogeneity and income composition channels through which monetary policy affects income distribution. From a relative mobility perspective, upward and downward mobility are estimated over the period 2004-2014 for the EMU countries that originated the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU 1999). By using a vector error correction model (VECM) approach, overall we find that an expansionary monetary policy seems to encourage upward mobility and discourage downward mobility. By income groups, a loose monetary policy appears to reduce downward mobility for the upper class, while no empirical evidence can be provided to support that monetary policy shocks alter upward mobility for the lower class. Monetary policy shocks are especially favourable for the middle class as an expansionary monetary policy seems to boost upward mobility. A detailed analysis of the middle class shows that an expansionary monetary policy may propel the upward mobility and hinder the downward mobility of the lower-middle class, particularly favouring this income group.

This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation for 44 countries, from 1960 to 2020. The study was conducted using a panel VAR approach while accounting for the difference in monetary policy frameworks and the levels of fiscal space across countries. Results suggest that budget deficits are less likely to cause inflation when monetary policy is based on inflation targeting. In contrast, they are inflationary in the group of countries with a poorly structured monetary policy (such as partially dollarized Latin American economies).

The stable macroeconomic environment, as one of the primary objectives of the Visegrad countries in the 1990s, was partially supported by the exchange rate policy. Fixed exchange rate systems within gradually widen bands (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic) and crawling peg system (Hungary, Poland) were replaced by the managed floating in the Czech Republic (May 1997), Poland (April 2000), Slovak Republic (October 1998) and fixed exchange rate to euro in Hungary (January 2000) with broad band (October 2001). Higher macroeconomic and banking sector stability allowed countries from the Visegrad group to implement the monetary policy strategy based on the interest rate transmission mechanism. Continuous harmonization of the monetary policy framework (with the monetary policy of the ECB) and the increasing sensitivity of the economy agents to the interest rates changes allowed the central banks from the Visegrad countries to implement monetary policy strategy based on the key interest rates determination. In the paper we analyze the impact of the central banks' monetary policy in the Visegrad countries on the selected macroeconomic variables in the period 1999-2008 implementing SVAR (structural vector autoregression) approach. We expect that higher sensitivity of domestic variables to interest rates shocks can be interpreted as a convergence of monetary policies in candidate countries towards the ECB's monetary policy.

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of interest-free and interest-based monetary policy on inflation and unemployment rates for two groups of countries where in one group, interest-free monetary policy (IFMP) was pursued, while in the other group, interest-based monetary policy (IBMP) was followed. Design/methodology/approach This study involves a sample of 23 developed countries divided into two groups. The authors measure economic performance by misery index (MI), and MI is calculated as unemployment rate plus inflation rate. A group of countries, where MI is lower, performs better compared to the other group where MI is relatively higher. Findings The results reveal that in group of 12 countries where IFMP is adopted, the MI is lower and thus performs better compared to a group of countries where IBMP is pursued. Research limitations/implications The findings of this study have profound implications for the policymakers and government leaders who look for a solution to maintain both low inflation and unemployment rates. The findings in this study clearly portray that such ideal situations can only be achieved by pursuing IFMP. No wonder the countries which have been historically pursuing IFMP such as Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark have been able to contain both inflation and unemployment rates compared to their counterparts among the English-speaking countries. Originality/value This is one of the most recent tests on the differences in economic performance between IFMP and IBMP. These results have significant value for policymakers and central bankers who have been struggling to maintain lower MI for decades.

International monetary problems moved from the back pages to the front pages long ago, and yet, despite much attention, they continue to trouble national leaders, entrepreneurs, international officials and scholars, and to affect the average citizen. World payments imbalances and currency fluctuations have substantial domestic economic effects, give rise to protectionist pressures, put unwelcome heat on politicians, and raise fears that resulting governmental conflicts could unravel political-security relations. Thus, large and small nations meet in various fora, from bilateral sessions through the Group-of-Seven powers to the annual IMF conference, to negotiate proposed changes.

This thesis draws on David Harvey’s concept of “accumulation by dispossession” and an international political economy (IPE) approach centred on the institutional arrangements and power structures that privilege certain actors and values, in order to critique current capitalist practices of primitive accumulation by the global corporate extractive industry. The thesis examines how accumulation by dispossession by the global extractive industry is facilitated by the “free entry” or “free mining” principle. It does so by focusing on Canada as a leader in the global extractive industry and the spread of this country’s mining laws to other countries – in other words, the transnationalisation of norms in the global extractive industry – so as to maintain a consistent and familiar operating environment for Canadian extractive companies. The transnationalisation of norms is further promoted by key international institutions such as the World Bank, which is also the world’s largest development lender and also plays a key role in shaping the regulations that govern natural resource extraction. The thesis briefly investigates some Canadian examples of resource extraction projects, in order to demonstrate the weaknesses of Canadian mining laws, particularly the lack of protection of landowners’ rights under the free entry system and the subsequent need for “free, prior and informed consent” (FPIC). The thesis also considers some of the challenges to the adoption and implementation of the right to FPIC. These challenges include embedded institutional structures like the free entry mining system, international political economy (IPE) as shaped by international institutions and powerful corporations, as well as concerns regarding ‘local’ power structures or the legitimacy of representatives of communities affected by extractive projects. The thesis concludes that in order for Canada to be truly recognized as a leader in the global extractive industry, it must establish legal norms domestically to ensure that Canadian mining companies and residents can be held accountable when there is evidence of environmental and/or human rights violations associated with the activities of Canadian mining companies abroad. The thesis also concludes that Canada needs to address underlying structural issues such as the free entry mining system and implement FPIC, in order to curb “accumulation by dispossession” by the extractive industry, both domestically and abroad.

Abstract: Alibrahim, Jalaa. Monetary policy of the Visegrad Group countries in comparison with the Euro area. Master thesis, Mendel University in Brno, Brno 2018. The aim of this diploma thesis is to compare monetary policy of Visegrad Group countries and the Euro area (European central bank’s monetary policy within Slovakia) during the observed period from 2001 to 2017 and the focus will be on the inflation in these countries. Research was focused on the long- run relationship between variables under study during the period, application of granger causality and the impulse responses. The empirical results will demonstrate how the variables were moving and related to each other during the period. This will show how the monetary policy in the Visegrad Group countries affected the inflation rate and in comparison, with the ECB policy within Slovakia after 2009.

This chapter analyzes the borrowing behavior of Japanese households compared to the other Group of Seven (G7) countries, and it also evaluates patterns by the age of the household head. In Japan, pre-retirees (age 50–59) do not carry high amounts of debt, and their financial health is satisfactory. By contrast, households with a head age 30–39 have taken on sharply more debt holdings in recent years, due partly to the fact that tax breaks for housing purchase, reforms in the housing loan market since the early 2000s, and expansionary monetary policy enabled Japanese households to purchase housing younger than previously. As a consequence, households have become more vulnerable to rising interest rates over time.

The chapter highlights the state of monetary policy in Africa and explores the challenges that central banks face as they address the increasingly complex forces at work in the global economy. It sequences the evolution of monetary policy from the time of World War II under the Bretton Woods system to the more recent forward-looking monetary policy in advanced economies and relates it to influencing the evolution of monetary policy frameworks in Africa. Some challenges affecting African countries are identified, including the collapse of commodity prices, persistent high interest rates spreads, and limitations of high frequency data that constrain monetary authorities’ abilities to take corrective actions in a timely manner. The chapter concludes by providing seven principles towards increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy for countries seeking to move towards forward-looking monetary policy frameworks.

This chapter examines the extent to which tax and benefit policy changes introduced in the period 2001−2011 had poverty- or inequality-reducing effects. The analysis uses the tax−benefit model EUROMOD and covers seven diverse EU countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, and the United Kingdom. It separates effects of structural policy reforms and those resulting from methods used for indexation of monetary parameters of the systems. Adequate indexation was typically more important in alleviating poverty and inequality than changes to the structure of policies. In fact, most of the structural changes that governments introduced, especially in the 2007−2011 crisis-onset period, had poverty- and inequality-increasing effects. There was considerable variation among the countries in how different policy instruments were adjusted and in the effects of the adjustments by income, by age, and by household composition.

This chapter assesses family group conferences (FGCs) as an international model of decision-making. FGCs are used in at least 20 countries across the globe. They are internationally recognised as an effective way of engaging families in decision-making processes. As the model has been applied in other countries, it has been adapted to reflect the cultures and the historical and policy context of individual countries and jurisdictions. Some of the processes are very similar to the original New Zealand model while others are very different and are hybrids of the original model. The chapter then studies the different levels of service implementation of FGCs and considers some of the outcome studies from seven countries. It also focuses on China as a case study for a country attempting to introduce FGCs as a culturally appropriate method of child protection practice.

In this chapter we analyze fiscal adjustments following economic shocks in the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. Using an unbalanced panel data, we examine empirically 81 developing countries including eight WAEMU countries over the 1980-2012 period. We compare the cyclicality of fiscal policy in WAEMU to other developing countries. While we focus on the response of public investment to changes in GDP, we also examine responses of current public expenditure and fiscal balance. We find that there is strong procyclicality in fiscal policy in WAEMU countries. Procyclicality is strongest in public investment and WAEMU countries are more procyclical in their fiscal policy compared to a group of countries that include European and Middle East and North African (MENA) countries.

Purpose: The main objective of this chapter is to identify the role of central banks in managing the crisis created by the Covid-19 pandemic. In order to explore this subject, the chapter attempts to identify similarities and differences in the behavior of selected central banks, those most important from the viewpoint of the global economy. Design/methodology/approach: The study encompassed 29 countries, mostly European economies (16) and other economies that bear the impact on the global output. The empirical analysis was based on k-means clustering analysis, which enabled us to identify groups of countries that followed similar solutions in response to the Covid-19 crisis. Findings: The analysis conducted in this chapter indicates the diverse nature of central banks’ policies and, in many cases, to aspecific bias toward an increase in monetary or financial policies. The intensification of the use of the tools of certain policies must be seen from the perspective of the purpose of those policies, but also in the context of the legal or statutory constraints imposed on central banks. Research limitations/implications: An interesting direction of research into the diverse nature of central bank policies will undoubtedly be to seek answers to the question of the effectiveness of these policies in the context of crisis. Such astudy, carried out ex post, may provide astarting point for designing future central bank crisis policy and implementing institutional solutions of anational or even supranational nature. Originality and value: The chapter shed some light on the regulatory and statutory sphere of central banking. We may clearly state that key central banks of the world do not operate within the framework of asingle universal rule and that there simultaneously is no optimal combination of crisis policy tools even for the same crisis. Therefore, when looking for regulatory and legal solutions, we should treat each case individually by designing regulations in away that corresponds to the specific features and conditions prevailing in the given financial and economic system.

This chapter contributes to the literature on fiscal-monetary interdependence in resource-dependent economies in the Arab World, specifically during the post-mid-1990s oil boom. It also provides empirical evidence on threshold effects for oil rents per capita. These findings support differentiated exchange rate regime choices in economies with low rent per capita, such as Sudan and Yemen, relative to wealthier Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and Algeria. The first group suffers from fiscal dominance, which explains their choice of soft pegged exchange rate regimes and their failure to sustain credible exchange rate-based stabilization programs. GCC countries, however, managed to maintain credible de facto pegged exchange rate regimes and convertible currencies, while Algeria graduated to a successfully managed exchange rate regime. Nevertheless, in contrast to Chile and Norway, Arab oil economies still need to establish credible fiscal rules for conducting monetary policy in order to withstand the effects of permanently lower oil prices.

This chapter applies the control group experiment to study whether microfinance improved microbusiness growth in Ghana. According to this approach, statistically significant difference in the outcome between treatment and control groups is an indication of impact of the microcredit on microbusiness development. Thus, this chapter compares the mean monthly sales, number of employees, business assets, and capital stock of microbusinesses that received microfinance (the treatment group) and the mean monthly sales, number of employees, business assets, and capital stock of microbusinesses that did not receive microfinance (the non-treatment group) in seven municipalities identified by various non-governmental organisations as areas of financial exclusion in the Northern Region of Ghana using survey data. Results indicate that microfinance impacted positively on microbusiness development. These findings have policy implications for the government of Ghana and agencies that are interested in using microfinance as a catalyst for economic growth in deprived communities in other countries.

José Delfín Duarte rises at the crack of dawn in a neighborhood on the outskirts of San Isidro, Costa Rica. He grabs his machete and rain parka, puts on his black galoshes, and heads out in a flatbed truck up a series of muddy roads surrounded by lush forest interspersed with farms. Eventually he arrives at a small water-distribution facility located at the top of a hill overlooking the surrounding watershed. He checks the station’s tanks, carefully noting the water levels. Duarte is the elected leader of a group of local citizens who have been given responsibility for managing water resources in their community. They decide how much water is used and how it will be allocated among families and farms in the area. They collect user fees, purchase equipment, and make numerous daily decisions affecting water use. Their role stems from a power-sharing arrangement with the Costa Rican government, which in recent years has crafted similar agreements with hundreds of local water associations throughout the country. Six thousand miles to the east, Claudia Olazábal begins her day in the outer suburbs of Brussels. She takes the subway to her office in the European Commission, a sleek modern glass and steel building where she heads the Biodiversity Unit of the European Union’s Directorate General for the Environment. On this particular day, her attention is focused on the design of new rules for the control of invasive species, which pose a major threat to ecosystems worldwide. Six years in the making, this rule came about after extensive consultation with stakeholders throughout the twenty-seven member countries of Europe—farmers unions and botanic gardens, prime ministers and pet shop owners. Working with a professional staff of Swiss and Germans, Poles and Portuguese, and many other nationalities, Olazábal is preparing for a lengthy negotiation involving lawmakers throughout the continent in a complex dance that will hopefully produce a new European policy on invasive species. Claudia Olazábal and José Delfín Duarte operate worlds apart, yet they have much in common. Both are creating rules that will shape our planet for decades and even centuries to come.

This study examines the hypothesis of the Export-Led Growth in the seven selected Middle East and North Africa countries, the hypothesis state that export growth driven by export promotion policies enhances overall economic growth. Empirical investigations have tended to focus attention on the direction of causality between exports and economic growth using Granger causality tests. However, the empirical results based on these tests are, at best, mixed and often contradictory. The paper employs panel data analysis by utilizing the Pedroni panel cointegration, Pedroni Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and Fully Modify Ordinary Least Squares, and Canning-Pedroni causality methods, a recent development in panel data econometrics, properties of integration and cointegration and consistency of parameters. The study considers the following three variables; Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real exports (EXP) and Real import (IMP). Annual secondary data are obtained from the World Bank Development Indicator for seven MENA countries, Namely, Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. The empirical results emphasize the existence of a positive relationship between Export and GDP. Results of waled and Z-bar Group statistics indicate the long-run unidirectional causality between Export and GDP, operates from Export to the GDP. It confirms the validity of Export-led growth hypothesis of the seven selected MENA countries. Empirical evidence suggests significant policy prescriptions; these countries should focus more on supporting export orientated industries through aid-for-trade, trade-capacity building schemes and other types of policies in order to promote economic growth.

We focus on the use of unconventional measures implemented during the financial crisis and their impact on operational efficiency and independence of the central banks, including the National bank of Republic of Macedonia (NBRM). Measuring the impact of the new policies on the independence and operational efficiency of the central banks, we try to assess their capacity to maintain the price stability as primary monetary policy objective. In the paper the following methods are used: quantitative method, comparative method, particularly in comparison of the level of operational efficiency and the independence of central banks, as well as econometric method applied in operational efficiency analysis of the selected group of countries (developed, developing countries and countries in transition). As the other central banks, NBRM face the challenge to preserve its role in maintaining price and financial stability and economic strength of the country, without jeopardizing its independence. During the crisis, in coordination with other economic policies, NBRM succeeded to maintain macroeconomic stability and contributed to the mitigation of internal and external economic shocks. Also, NBRM managed to keep very high level of its legal and factual independence, measured by the standard indicators. However, the achievement of these multiple goals, resulted in decrease in the level of its operational efficiency, as it was case with the other central banks analyzed in this paper. Main message is that central banks have to undertake coordinated measures to fulfill their goals but also to take some measures to improve optimal level of efficiency.

This rapid review found an absence of literature focused specifically on measuring the impact of PFM and governance systems in countries that have transitioned from aid, by moving up the income ladder. However, there are a few academic publications and a limited number of studies by multilateral, such as the World Bank, that examine the role of PFM and governance systems in countries that are transitioning or have moved away from aid. However, the importance of public financial management (PFM) and governance systems in development is well established and seen as a pre-requisite for economic growth. To effectively transition from aid, most low-income countries (LICs) need to upgrade their PFM and governance systems to meet the different scale, resources, accountability mechanisms, and capacity-building requirements of a middle-income country (MIC). The absence of the above empirical evidence may be due to the complexity of measuring the impact of PFM reforms as the results are non-linear, difficult to isolate from other policies to establish causality, and manifest in a longer time frame. However, through comparative country studies, the consequences of deficient PFM and governance have been well documented. So impaired budgetary planning, implementation, and reporting, limited fiscal transparency, weak accountability mechanisms, resource leakage, and inefficient service delivery are well recognised as detrimental to economic growth and development. The literature on transitioning countries focuses predominantly on the impact of aid withdrawal on the social sector, where comparative qualitative data is easier to obtain and the effects are usually more immediate, visible, and may even extend to global health outcomes, such as in AIDS prevention programmes. Thus, tracking the progress of donor-assisted social sector programmes is relatively easier than for PFM and governance reforms. The literature is more abundant on the overall lessons of transitions from aid both for country governments and donors. The key lessons underscore the importance of PFM and governance systems and mechanisms to a successful transition up the income ladder: Planning for transition should be strategic, detailed and specifically geared to mitigate against risks, explicitly assessing the best mix of finance options to mitigate the impact of aid reduction/withdrawal on national budgets. The plan must be led by a working group or ministry and have timelines and milestones; Where PFM and governance is weak transition preparation should include strengthening PFM especially economic and fiscal legislation, administration, and implementation; Stakeholders such as donor partners (DPs) and NGOs should participate in the planning process with clear, open, and ongoing communication channels; Political and economic assessments in the planning and mid-term phases as well as long-term monitoring and evaluation should be instituted; Build financial, technical, and management capacity throughout the plan implementation This helpdesk report draws on academic, policy, and grey sources from the previous seven years rather than the usual K4D five-year window, to account for the two-year disruption of COVID-19. As cross-country studies on PFM and governance are scarce, a few older studies are also referenced to ensure a comprehensive response to the query. The report focuses on low-income countries transitioning from aid due to a change in status to lower-middle-income countries.

Background An estimated 292 million people are living with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection globally, including 223,000 people in Australia. HBV diagnosis and linkage of people living with HBV to clinical care is suboptimal in Australia, with 27% of people living with HBV undiagnosed and 77% not receiving regular HBV clinical care. This systematic review aimed to characterize population-level interventions implemented to enhance all components of HBV care cascade and analyse the effectiveness of interventions. Review questions Question 1: What population-level interventions, programs or policy approaches have been shown to be effective in reducing the incidence of hepatitis B; and that may not yet be fully rolled out or evaluated in Australia demonstrate early effectiveness, or promise, in reducing the incidence of hepatitis B? Question 2: What population-level interventions and/or programs are effective at reducing disease burden for people in the community with hepatitis B? Methods Four bibliographic databases and 21 grey literature sources were searched. Studies were eligible for inclusion if the study population included people with or at risk of chronic HBV, and the study conducted a population-level interventions to decrease HBV incidence or disease burden or to enhance any components of HBV care cascade (i.e., diagnosis, linkage to care, treatment initiation, adherence to clinical care), or HBV vaccination coverage. Studies published in the past 10 years (since January 2012), with or without comparison groups were eligible for inclusion. Studies conducting an HBV screening intervention were eligible if they reported proportion of people participating in screening, proportion of newly diagnosed HBV (participant was unaware of their HBV status), proportion of people received HBV vaccination following screening, or proportion of participants diagnosed with chronic HBV infection who were linked to HBV clinical care. Studies were excluded if study population was less than 20 participants, intervention included a pharmaceutical intervention or a hospital-based intervention, or study was implemented in limited clinical services. The records were initially screened by title and abstract. The full texts of potentially eligible records were reviewed, and eligible studies were selected for inclusion. For each study included in analysis, the study outcome and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated. For studies including a comparison group, odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95%CIs were calculated. Random effect meta-analysis models were used to calculate the pooled study outcome estimates. Stratified analyses were conducted by study setting, study population, and intervention-specific characteristics. Key findings A total of 61 studies were included in the analysis. A large majority of studies (study n=48, 79%) included single-arm studies with no concurrent control, with seven (12%) randomised controlled trials, and six (10%) non-randomised controlled studies. A total of 109 interventions were evaluated in 61 included studies. On-site or outreach HBV screening and linkage to HBV clinical care coordination were the most frequent interventions, conducted in 27 and 26 studies, respectively. Question 1 We found no studies reporting HBV incidence as the study outcome. One study conducted in remote area demonstrated that an intervention including education of pregnant women and training village health volunteers enhanced coverage of HBV birth dose vaccination (93% post-intervention, vs. 81% pre-intervention), but no data of HBV incidence among infants were reported. Question 2 Study outcomes most relevant to the HBV burden for people in the community with HBV included, HBV diagnosis, linkage to HBV care, and HBV vaccination coverage. Among randomised controlled trials aimed at enhancing HBV screening, a meta-analysis was conducted including three studies which implemented an intervention including community face-to-face education focused on HBV and/or liver cancer among migrants from high HBV prevalence areas. This analysis demonstrated a significantly higher HBV testing uptake in intervention groups with the likelihood of HBV testing 3.6 times higher among those participating in education programs compared to the control groups (OR: 3.62, 95% CI 2.72, 4.88). In another analysis, including 25 studies evaluating an intervention to enhance HBV screening, a pooled estimate of 66% of participants received HBV testing following the study intervention (95%CI: 58-75%), with high heterogeneity across studies (range: 17-98%; I-square: 99.9%). A stratified analysis by HBV screening strategy demonstrated that in the studies providing participants with on-site HBV testing, the proportion receiving HBV testing (80%, 95%CI: 72-87%) was significantly higher compared to the studies referring participants to an external site for HBV testing (54%, 95%CI: 37-71%). In the studies implementing an intervention to enhance linkage of people diagnosed with HBV infection to clinical care, the interventions included different components and varied across studies. The most common component was post-test counselling followed by assistance with scheduling clinical appointments, conducted in 52% and 38% of the studies, respectively. In meta-analysis, a pooled estimate of 73% of people with HBV infection were linked to HBV clinical care (95%CI: 64-81%), with high heterogeneity across studies (range: 28-100%; I-square: 99.2%). A stratified analysis by study population demonstrated that in the studies among general population in high prevalence countries, 94% of people (95%CI: 88-100%) who received the study intervention were linked to care, significantly higher than 72% (95%CI: 61-83%) in studies among migrants from high prevalence area living in a country with low prevalence. In 19 studies, HBV vaccination uptake was assessed after an intervention, among which one study assessed birth dose vaccination among infants, one study assessed vaccination in elementary school children and 17 studies assessed vaccination in adults. Among studies assessing adult vaccination, a pooled estimate of 38% (95%CI: 21-56%) of people initiated vaccination, with high heterogeneity across studies (range: 0.5-93%; I square: 99.9%). A stratified analysis by HBV vaccination strategy demonstrated that in the studies providing on-site vaccination, the uptake was 78% (95%CI: 62-94%), significantly higher compared to 27% (95%CI: 13-42%) in studies referring participants to an external site for vaccination. Conclusion This systematic review identified a wide variety of interventions, mostly multi-component interventions, to enhance HBV screening, linkage to HBV clinical care, and HBV vaccination coverage. High heterogeneity was observed in effectiveness of interventions in all three domains of screening, linkage to care, and vaccination. Strategies identified to boost the effectiveness of interventions included providing on-site HBV testing and vaccination (versus referral for testing and vaccination) and including community education focussed on HBV or liver cancer in an HBV screening program. Further studies are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of more novel interventions (e.g., point of care testing) and interventions specifically including Indigenous populations, people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men, and people incarcerated.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countries