Academic literature on the topic 'Monetary policy Australia Econometric models'

This paper presents the econometric analysis of the heterogenous effects of monetary policy on industrial output and producer prices in manufacturing sector in Russia. The estimation of the differences in the impulce responses to the interest rate shock is conducted using structural VAR-models, the analysis of key industrial characteristics, explaining differences through monetary transmission channes, is based on principal components and correlations. Our findings reveal the strongest response to monetary policy in such industries as manufacture of rubber and plastic products, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products, manufacture of pulp and paper, manufacture of machinery nd equipment, manufacture of electrical, electronic and optical equipment and manufacture of motor vehicles and equipment. Besides, in these industries the response is usually deffered to 2–3 months after the shock. Our findings also show that the impact of monetary shocks on output is particulary strong in industries producing capital goods and supplies for construction but particularly weak in industries with high concentration and high profits. That means that differences in industrial responses to monetary policy can be described by two key channels of monetary transmission — interest rate channel (due to high demand sensitivity to interest rate changes) and bank lending channel (due to important role of bank loans in fi rms’ financing).

An important precondition for successful implementation of inflation targeting is the ability of the central bank to forecast inflation given the fact that the inflation forecast has become an intermediate target. Certainly, this means there should be clear understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism functioning within the bank, because it is precisely through transmission channels that a central bank has to ensure convergence of its inflation forecast to the target. And it is almost impossible to pursue inflation targeting without a set of macroeconomic models that describes the monetary policy transmission mechanism and helps to analyse the current state of the economy as well as forecast (simulate) short- and medium-term macroeconomic scenarios. This article provides a review of the current state of macroeconomic modelling at central banks and describes the history of development and actual stance of the National Bank of Ukraine’s system of macroeconomic models. The existing system provides quite reliable support for the current monetary policy decision-making process, but it has to be improved by implementing a more sophisticated model (such as a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model) and enhancing the set of econometric models for shortterm forecast purposes in the future.

The article provides the analysis of the impact of monetary policy shock generated by the Bank of Russia on the Russian stock market yield dynamics. We have estimated the features and duration of the effect using SVAR models and monthly data for the period from 2005 to 2013. We examine a wide range of proxies for the monetary conditions: the key interest rate, monetary aggregate M2, the refinancing rate and the interbank lending rate.

Abstract The first central banks were founded in the XVII century and monetary policy has been evolving ever since. Knowledge on monetary economy has improved significantly over the last couple of decades and a consensus has been reached in a number of areas. As a result, hyperinflations have been extremely rare over the past decades. The global financial crisis challenged traditional monetary policy that was based on the approach involving one instrument (reference interest rate) and one goal (price stability). It is obvious that we need a new approach to monetary policy and I believe that changes will happen gradually in the future. This paper consists of two parts. The first part covers the traditional monetary policy and deals with issues where consensus has been reached, as well as with issues on monetary policy objectives, transparency, and macroprudential policy. The second part addresses the issues that pose a challenge for monetary policy and for which there is no complete consensus. This part elaborates on the dilemma involving rules versus discretions, a new approach to banking supervision, monetary policy during a crisis, the role of econometric models, and the need for international coordination of monetary policy.

Research background: In this research paper, an attempt is made to evaluate the impacts of ECB’s unconventional monetary policy which has been applied after Global Financial Crisis. Because of the new economic and monetary conditions, the effectiveness of conventional monetary tools has been questioned. Purpose of the article: Designed models examine the consequences of unconventional monetary policy for macroeconomic variables, monetary variables and interest rates in the euro area. Particular attention is paid to the response of the price level, represented by HICP, to various monetary policy innovations. Except a shock in credit multiplier and asset purchase programme (APP), also the effectiveness of a conventional monetary tool, such as main refinancing operation (MRO) interest rate, is inspected. Methods: Use has been made of impulse responses from structural VAR models to analyze a large sample that covers the time horizon of 1999 to 2016. Several econometric tests are performed to provide a profound analysis. The conclusions from baseline models are verified in multiple robustness check models, which are specified under alternative conditions. Findings & Value added: It has been found that, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, conventional monetary instruments are effective in the short-run. In the long-run, unconventional monetary policy has a greater potential to stabilize the economy than the traditional interest rate transmission channel. The conclusions from the baseline models are verified in multiple robustness check models, which are specified under alternative conditions.

The New Keynesian (NK) models have advantage over the Real Business Cycle (RBC) models as they allow rigidities in the structure of the model, hence provide built-in mechanism to incorporate the structural shocks. The estimation of the NK model for Pakistan’s economy remains a relatively unexplored area. This study attempts to estimate a closed economy version of the NK model using robust econometric technique. On the empirical side macroeconomic dynamics have been investigated in response to unanticipated monetary shock. The reaction of the monetary authority (the State Bank of Pakistan) in response to structural shocks has been assessed by exploring the role of forward looking expectations. The SVAR model has been employed to estimate the structural parameters. The response of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks has also been simulated along with discussing the forecast error variance decomposition. The role of forward looking expectations is found to play prominent role in the prevailing market structure of the country. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been found to respond to shocks after a lag of one or more periods indicating time inconsistency problem which is due to discretionary monetary policy stance being adopted by the monetary authority. The distorted beliefs of economic agents about the stance of monetary policy have pointed towards weak effectiveness of the monetary policy. The results suggest that the SBP would have to adopt an independent and transparent monetary policy by following some sort of Taylor-type rule. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E52, E58 Keywords: New Keynesian Models, Real Business Cycle Models, Forward Looking Expectations, SVAR Model, Price Puzzle

We aim at establishing whether the institutional adoption of inflation targeting has changed the conduct of monetary policy. To do so, we test the hypothesis of inflation targeting translating into a stronger response to inflation in a Taylor rule with three alternative econometric models: a structural break model, a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility, and a Markov-switching VAR model. We conclude that inflation targeting has not led to a stronger response to inflation in the reaction function of the monetary authority. This result suggests that inflation targeting being meant to anchor inflation expectations through enhanced credibility and accountability, it may enable a central bank to stabilize inflation without pursuing aggressive action toward inflation variations.

This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. Chapter I. The first chapter develops a dynamic general equilibrium model which includes financial intermediation and endogenous financial crises. Consistent with the data, financial crises occur out of prolonged (credit) boom periods and are initiated by a moderate adverse shock. The mechanism which gives rise to boom-bust episodes around financial crises is based on an interaction between the maturity mismatch of the financial sector and an agency problem which results in procyclical lending. I show how to model these features in a tractable way, giving a realistic representation of the financial sector's balance sheet and its lending behavior. The chapter provides empirical evidence on the behavior of the U.S. financial sector's market leverage which is (i) acyclical, (ii) rose mildly prior to the Great Recession, and (iii) increased sharply during the crisis; the model is consistent with these empirical facts. It also predicts and replicates the Great Recession, when confronted with a historical series of structural shocks. Finally, the framework is extended to include price rigidities, nominal debt contracts, and monetary policy. Within this version, I analyze the impact of monetary policy on financial stability and show that a U-shaped pattern of the policy target rate is most likely to increase financial instability. Chapter II. The second chapter models the economy as a time varying vector autoregression, consisting of economic and financial variables. The interest lies in the time varying response of these variables to a monetary policy shock. Monetary policy shocks are identified as the surprise component in policy announcements extracted from price changes in Federal Funds futures around such announcements. These monetary policy surprises enter the model as an exogenous variable. The framework is used to obtain evidence on the time varying response of stock prices to the monetary policy surprises. Stock prices always persistently decrease following a monetary tightening and more strongly than fundamentals imply - with an increase in risk-premia accounting for the difference. However, the response of stock prices varies over time. They decrease less during a boom and a perceived bubble period than during a recession. The findings suggest that so-called "leaning against the wind policies" may be ineffective since stock prices are less responsive during periods when such policies would disinflate asset bubbles using contractionary monetary policy. Chapter III. The third chapter augments a monetary dynamic general equilibrium model with a bubble as considered in [Miao_Wang_2015]. A bubble may exist in firms' stock market values and firms borrow against their inflated stock market values. Within this framework, I analyze the relation between monetary policy and the bubble. I find that contractionary monetary policy decreases the bubble which tightens borrowing constraints and amplifies the reaction of investment and output. These results are in contrast to the ones in Gali (2014) who considers a bubble of the classic rational type and finds that contractionary monetary policy can increase bubbles.

This thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases. We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization of output and inflation. A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy. A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce determinacy.

This thesis aims to provide new and useful insights into the effects that various tax, labour and product market reforms have on the overall economic performance. Additionally, it aims also to provide insights about the optimal monetary and fiscal policy behaviour within the economy characterized with various real labour market frictions. We analyze the benefits of tax reforms and their effectiveness relative to product or other labour market reforms. A general equilibrium model with imperfect competition, wage bargaining and different forms of tax distortions is applied in order to analyze these issues. We find that structural reforms imply short run costs but long run gains; that the long run gains outweigh the short run costs; and that the financing of such reforms will be the main stumbling block. We also find that the effectiveness of various reform instruments depends on the policy maker's ultimate objective. More precisely, tax reforms are more effective for welfare gains, but market liberalization is more valuable for generating employment. In order to advance our understanding of the tax and product market reform processes, we then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which incorporates search-matching frictions, costly ring and endogenous job destruction decisions, as well as a distortionary progressive wage and a at payroll tax. We confirm the negative effects of marginal tax distortions on the overall economic performance. We also find a positive effect of an increase in the wage tax progressivity and product market liberalization on employment, output and consumption. Following a positive technology shock, the volatility of employment, output and consumption turns out to be lower in the reformed economy, whereas the impact effect on inflation is more pronounced. Following a positive government spending shock the volatility of employment, output and consumption is again lower in the reformed economy, but the inflation response is stronger over the whole adjustment path. We also find detrimental effects on employment and output of a tax reform which keeps the marginal tax wedge unchanged by partially offsetting a decrease in the payroll tax by an increase in the wage tax rate. If this reform is anticipated one period in advance the negative effects remain all over the transition path. We investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policy implication of the New-Keynesian setup enriched with search-matching frictions. We show that the optimal policy features deviation from strict price stability, and that the Ramsey planner uses both inflation and taxes in order to fully exploit the benefits of the productivity increase following a positive productivity shock. We also find that the optimal tax rate and government liabilities inherit the time series properties of the underlying shocks. Moreover, we identify a certain degree of overshooting in inflation and tax rates following a positive productivity shock, and a certain degree of undershooting following a positive government spending shock as a consequence of the assumed commitment of policy maker.

This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why

Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical

benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about

future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary

variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so

correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of

integration of international financial markets.

The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory

and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty

years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to

macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly

noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the

development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general

equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical

perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data

sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for

an historical perspective).

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the

appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of

policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal

general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of

individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the

aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the

restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a

modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to

a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the

effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique

(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business

cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that

economic policy should play no role since business cycles

reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous

sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}

and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by

several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms

of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms

like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient

responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for

example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate

some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework

and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient

fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation

mechanisms.

Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up

a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an

economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those

subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change

their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price

setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for

example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro

Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the

heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide

shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central

Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in

the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).

Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the

policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable

but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the

economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the

degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to

conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall

inflation does not imply any observable difference in the

aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the

assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction

frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a

consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker

faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,

economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This

feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives

faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence

of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy

reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the

economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in

price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave

less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal

rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive

caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central

Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not

represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be

the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant

sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.

DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and

recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of

information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the

typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,

this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,

the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions

identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms

becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in

macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.

Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter

of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers

analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and

future stance of their economies and, because of model

uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.

Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the

econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing

too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their

evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).

Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets

implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global

requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross

country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A

priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of

the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open

macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by

the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need

modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in

a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many

a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The

large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic

variables suggests the existence of few common sources of

fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which

individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the

world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers

with different sign and intensity or global technological advances

can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor

models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the

dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal

components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious

tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their

propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In

fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly

cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a

variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common

components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and

are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific

factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.

Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the

identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying

a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this

thesis exploit this idea.

The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables

help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of

consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the

economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially

relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the

European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models

can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity

of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the

role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of

prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables

and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term

and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.

However, both the academic literature and the practice of the

leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a

special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and

references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really

provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the

Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the

issue whether money provides useful information about future

inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary

variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a

large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro

Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for

the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few

synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the

large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of

variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results

show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive

performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the

period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.

Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on

the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.

However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors

reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate

benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary

variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample

up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current

forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.

The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone

and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium

explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found

that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly

comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should

allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial

markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and

investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has

strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's

seminal paper while the association between saving and investment

does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium

mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the

correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,

affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global

capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global

interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across

national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical

studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects

of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions

failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show

that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks

may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to

properly isolate components of saving and investment that are

affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor

augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate

idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of

heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,

by applying our methodology, the association between domestic

saving and investment decreases considerably over time,

consistently with the observed increase in international capital

mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation

between saving and investment disappears.

Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This thesis develops empirical econometric models of the private sector aggregate demand for real and financial assets in Kenya over the period 1973 to 1990. Single-equation error-correction models of the demand for money are estimated using systems cointegration methods developed by Johansen (1988). The models are found to be statistically stable functions throughout the period, and are capable of encompassing existing studies. Across a range of monetary aggregates, including a Divisia index aggregate for broad money, the models describe demand for money functions in which inflation and illegal foreign currency substitution are significant determinants of money holdings, and where the private sector adjusts rapidly to deviations from its stable longrun equilibrium real money demand. The demand for money is then integrated within a neo-classical model of asset demands, which examines the behaviour of the aggregate private sector asset portfolio in response to changes in relative prices between assets and to external shocks to the economy, principally the 1976-77 coffee boom. A variant of the Almost Ideal Demand System model developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) is estimated for a class of six assets: base money, banking system deposits, government securities, tradable capital, nontradable capital and inventories. The asset substitution model, which also takes an errorcorrection form, and which allows for credit rationing, generates results which are consistent with the earlier demand for money models, where private agents are also denied access to foreign-denominated assets. Using this model, the maintenance of policies of financial repression are shown to cause the private sector to offset inflationary shocks through the accumulation of real assets, principally in the form of non-tradable capital in the construction and property sectors. The evidence from the two models is used to analyze the fiscal effects of the inflation tax and financial repression measures. Policies of financial liberalization are shown to reduce the revenue maximizing rate of inflation (estimated to be 14% per annum) and the implicit tax on domestic holders of government liabilities. This dampens asset substitution in response to inflationary shocks and offsets the adverse effects of "construction-boom" investment on non-tradable capital prices.

The active use of macroeconomic policies to smooth economic fluctuations and, as a

consequence, the stance that policymakers should adopt over the business cycle, remain

controversial issues in the economic literature.

In the light of the dramatic experience of the early 1930s’ Great Depression, Keynes (1936)

argued that the market mechanism could not be relied upon to spontaneously recover from

a slump, and advocated counter-cyclical public spending and monetary policy to stimulate

demand. Albeit the Keynesian doctrine had largely influenced policymaking during

the two decades following World War II, it began to be seriously challenged in several

directions since the start of the 1970s. The introduction of rational expectations within

macroeconomic models implied that aggregate demand management could not stabilize

the economy’s responses to shocks (see in particular Sargent and Wallace (1975)). According

to this view, in fact, rational agents foresee the effects of the implemented policies, and

wage and price expectations are revised upwards accordingly. Therefore, real wages and

money balances remain constant and so does output. Within such a conceptual framework,

only unexpected policy interventions would have some short-run effects upon the economy.

The "real business cycle (RBC) theory", pioneered by Kydland and Prescott (1982), offered

an alternative explanation on the nature of fluctuations in economic activity, viewed

as reflecting the efficient responses of optimizing agents to exogenous sources of fluctuations, outside the direct control of policymakers. The normative implication was that

there should be no role for economic policy activism: fiscal and monetary policy should be

acyclical. The latest generation of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

(DSGE) models builds on rigorous foundations in intertemporal optimizing behavior by

consumers and firms inherited from the RBC literature, but incorporates some frictions

in the adjustment of nominal and real quantities in response to macroeconomic shocks

(see Woodford (2003)). In such a framework, not only policy "surprises" may have an

impact on the economic activity, but also the way policymakers "systematically" respond

to exogenous sources of fluctuation plays a fundamental role in affecting the economic

activity, thereby rekindling interest in the use of counter-cyclical stabilization policies to

fine tune the business cycle.

Yet, despite impressive advances in the economic theory and econometric techniques, there are no definitive answers on the systematic stance policymakers should follow, and on the

effects of macroeconomic policies upon the economy. Against this background, the present thesis attempts to inspect the interrelations between macroeconomic policies and the economic activity from novel angles. Three contributions

are proposed.

In the first Chapter, I show that relying on the information actually available to policymakers when budgetary decisions are taken is of fundamental importance for the assessment of the cyclical stance of governments. In the second, I explore whether the effectiveness of fiscal shocks in spurring the economic activity has declined since the beginning of the 1970s. In the third, the impact of systematic monetary policies over U.S. industrial sectors is investigated. In the existing literature, empirical assessments of the historical stance of policymakers over the economic cycle have been mainly drawn from the estimation of "reduced-form" policy reaction functions (see in particular Taylor (1993) and Galì and Perotti (2003)). Such rules typically relate a policy instrument (a reference short-term interest rate or an indicator of discretionary fiscal policy) to a set of explanatory variables (notably inflation, the output gap and the debt-GDP ratio, as long as fiscal policy is concerned). Although these policy rules can be seen as simple approximations of what derived from an explicit optimization problem solved by social planners (see Kollmann (2007)), they received considerable attention since they proved to track the behavior of central banks and fiscal

policymakers relatively well. Typically, revised data, i.e. observations available to the

econometrician when the study is carried out, are used in the estimation of such policy

reaction functions. However, data available in "real-time" to policymakers may end up

to be remarkably different from what it is observed ex-post. Orphanides (2001), in an

innovative and thought-provoking paper on the U.S. monetary policy, challenged the way

policy evaluation was conducted that far by showing that unrealistic assumptions about

the timeliness of data availability may yield misleading descriptions of historical policy.

In the spirit of Orphanides (2001), in the first Chapter of this thesis I reconsider how

the intentional cyclical stance of fiscal authorities should be assessed. Importantly, in

the framework of fiscal policy rules, not only variables such as potential output and the

output gap are subject to measurement errors, but also the main discretionary "operating

instrument" in the hands of governments: the structural budget balance, i.e. the headline

government balance net of the effects due to automatic stabilizers. In fact, the actual

realization of planned fiscal measures may depend on several factors (such as the growth

rate of GDP, the implementation lags that often follow the adoption of many policy

measures, and others more) outside the direct and full control of fiscal authorities. Hence,

there might be sizeable differences between discretionary fiscal measures as planned in the

past and what it is observed ex-post. To be noted, this does not apply to monetary policy

since central bankers can control their operating interest rates with great accuracy.

When the historical behavior of fiscal authorities is analyzed from a real-time perspective, it emerges that the intentional stance has been counter-cyclical, especially during expansions, in the main OECD countries throughout the last thirteen years. This is at

odds with findings based on revised data, generally pointing to pro-cyclicality (see for example Gavin and Perotti (1997)). It is shown that empirical correlations among revision

errors and other second-order moments allow to predict the size and the sign of the bias

incurred in estimating the intentional stance of the policy when revised data are (mistakenly)

used. It addition, formal tests, based on a refinement of Hansen (1999), do not reject

the hypothesis that the intentional reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle is characterized by

two regimes: one counter-cyclical, when output is above its potential level, and the other

acyclical, in the opposite case. On the contrary, the use of revised data does not allow to identify any threshold effect.

The second and third Chapters of this thesis are devoted to the exploration of the impact

of fiscal and monetary policies upon the economy.

Over the last years, two approaches have been mainly followed by practitioners for the

estimation of the effects of macroeconomic policies on the real activity. On the one hand,

calibrated and estimated DSGE models allow to trace out the economy’s responses to

policy disturbances within an analytical framework derived from solid microeconomic

foundations. On the other, vector autoregressive (VAR) models continue to be largely

used since they have proved to fit macro data particularly well, albeit they cannot fully

serve to inspect structural interrelations among economic variables.

Yet, the typical DSGE and VAR models are designed to handle a limited number of variables

and are not suitable to address economic questions potentially involving a large

amount of information. In a DSGE framework, in fact, identifying aggregate shocks and

their propagation mechanism under a plausible set of theoretical restrictions becomes a

thorny issue when many variables are considered. As for VARs, estimation problems may

arise when models are specified in a large number of indicators (although latest contributions suggest that large-scale Bayesian VARs perform surprisingly well in forecasting.

See in particular Banbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2007)). As a consequence, the growing

popularity of factor models as effective econometric tools allowing to summarize in

a parsimonious and flexible manner large amounts of information may be explained not

only by their usefulness in deriving business cycle indicators and forecasting (see for example

Reichlin (2002) and D’Agostino and Giannone (2006)), but also, due to recent

developments, by their ability in evaluating the response of economic systems to identified

structural shocks (see Giannone, Reichlin and Sala (2002) and Forni, Giannone, Lippi

and Reichlin (2007)). Parallelly, some attempts have been made to combine the rigor of

DSGE models and the tractability of VAR ones, with the advantages of factor analysis

(see Boivin and Giannoni (2006) and Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005)).

The second Chapter of this thesis, based on a joint work with Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, presents an original study combining factor and VAR analysis in an encompassing framework,

to investigate how "unexpected" and "unsystematic" variations in taxes and government

spending feed through the economy in the home country and abroad. The domestic

impact of fiscal shocks in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. and cross-border fiscal spillovers

from Germany to seven European economies is analyzed. In addition, the time evolution of domestic and cross-border tax and spending multipliers is explored. In fact, the way fiscal policy impacts on domestic and foreign economies

depends on several factors, possibly changing over time. In particular, the presence of excess

capacity, accommodating monetary policy, distortionary taxation and liquidity constrained

consumers, plays a prominent role in affecting how fiscal policies stimulate the

economic activity in the home country. The impact on foreign output crucially depends

on the importance of trade links, on real exchange rates and, in a monetary union, on

the sensitiveness of foreign economies to the common interest rate. It is well documented

that the last thirty years have witnessed frequent changes in the economic environment.

For instance, in most OECD countries, the monetary policy stance became less accommodating

in the 1980s compared to the 1970s, and more accommodating again in the

late 1990s and early 2000s. Moreover, financial markets have been heavily deregulated.

Hence, fiscal policy might have lost (or gained) power as a stimulating tool in the hands

of policymakers. Importantly, the issue of cross-border transmission of fiscal policy decisions is of the utmost relevance in the framework of the European Monetary Union and this explains why the debate on fiscal policy coordination has received so much attention since the adoption

of the single currency (see Ahearne, Sapir and Véron (2006) and European Commission

(2006)). It is found that over the period 1971 to 2004 tax shocks have generally been more effective in spurring domestic output than government spending shocks. Interestingly, the inclusion of common factors representing global economic phenomena yields to smaller multipliers

reconciling, at least for the U.K. the evidence from large-scale macroeconomic models,

generally finding feeble multipliers (see e.g. European Commission’s QUEST model), with

the one from a prototypical structural VAR pointing to stronger effects of fiscal policy.

When the estimation is performed recursively over samples of seventeen years of data, it

emerges that GDP multipliers have dropped drastically from early 1990s on, especially

in Germany (tax shocks) and in the U.S. (both tax and government spending shocks).

Moreover, the conduct of fiscal policy seems to have become less erratic, as documented

by a lower variance of fiscal shocks over time, and this might contribute to explain why

business cycles have shown less volatility in the countries under examination.

Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany do not generally have beggar-thy-neighbor effects

on other European countries. In particular, our results suggest that tax multipliers have

been positive but vanishing for neighboring countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria), weak and mostly not significant for more remote ones (the U.K.

and Spain). Cross-border government spending multipliers are found to be monotonically

weak for all the subsamples considered.

Overall these findings suggest that fiscal "surprises", in the form of unexpected reductions in taxation and expansions in government consumption and investment, have become progressively less successful in stimulating the economic activity at the domestic level, indicating that, in the framework of the European Monetary Union, policymakers can only marginally rely on this discretionary instrument as a substitute for national monetary policies.

The objective of the third chapter is to inspect the role of monetary policy in the U.S. business cycle. In particular, the effects of "systematic" monetary policies upon several industrial sectors is investigated. The focus is on the systematic, or endogenous, component of monetary policy (i.e. the one which is related to the economic activity in a stable and predictable way), for three main reasons. First, endogenous monetary policies are likely to have sizeable real effects, if agents’ expectations are not perfectly rational and if there are some nominal and real frictions in a market. Second, as widely documented, the variability of the monetary instrument and of the main macro variables is only marginally explained by monetary "shocks", defined as unexpected and exogenous variations in monetary conditions. Third, monetary shocks can be simply interpreted as measurement errors (see Christiano, Eichenbaum

and Evans (1998)). Hence, the systematic component of monetary policy is likely to have played a fundamental role in affecting business cycle fluctuations. The strategy to isolate the impact of systematic policies relies on a counterfactual experiment, within a (calibrated or estimated) macroeconomic model. As a first step, a macroeconomic shock to which monetary policy is likely to respond should be selected,

and its effects upon the economy simulated. Then, the impact of such shock should be

evaluated under a “policy-inactive” scenario, assuming that the central bank does not respond

to it. Finally, by comparing the responses of the variables of interest under these

two scenarios, some evidence on the sensitivity of the economic system to the endogenous

component of the policy can be drawn (see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997)).

Such kind of exercise is first proposed within a stylized DSGE model, where the analytical

solution of the model can be derived. However, as argued, large-scale multi-sector DSGE

models can be solved only numerically, thus implying that the proposed experiment cannot

be carried out. Moreover, the estimation of DSGE models becomes a thorny issue when many variables are incorporated (see Canova and Sala (2007)). For these arguments, a less “structural”, but more tractable, approach is followed, where a minimal amount of

identifying restrictions is imposed. In particular, a factor model econometric approach

is adopted (see in particular Giannone, Reichlin and Sala (2002) and Forni, Giannone,

Lippi and Reichlin (2007)). In this framework, I develop a technique to perform the counterfactual experiment needed to assess the impact of systematic monetary policies.

It is found that 2 and 3-digit SIC U.S. industries are characterized by very heterogeneous degrees of sensitivity to the endogenous component of the policy. Notably, the industries showing the strongest sensitivities are the ones producing durable goods and metallic

materials. Non-durable good producers, food, textile and lumber producing industries are

the least affected. In addition, it is highlighted that industrial sectors adjusting prices relatively infrequently are the most "vulnerable" ones. In fact, firms in this group are likely to increase quantities, rather than prices, following a shock positively hitting the economy. Finally, it emerges that sectors characterized by a higher recourse to external sources to finance investments, and sectors investing relatively more in new plants and machineries, are the most affected by endogenous monetary actions.
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Euribor rates (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) rates are considered to be the most important reference rates in the European money market. The interest rates do provide the basis for the price and interest rates of all kinds of financial products like interest rate swaps, interest rate futures, saving accounts and mortgages. Since September 2014, this index has per­formed with negative rates. In recent years, several European central banks have imposed negative interest rates on commercial banks, as the only way to stimulate their nations’ economies. Under these circumstances, the purpose of this study is to estimate the gap of the negative rates which are still increasing constantly. This fact puts in question the financial stability in many countries and the effect of monetary policy on stimulating economic growth around European countries. According to the daily data 2016 - 2021, this study has analyzed the volatility of the Euribor index related to efficient market hypothesis and volatility clustering. Applying advanced volatility econometric methods, GARCH volatility models are derived and the long-run equilibrium is predicted. Practical Implications are related to the empiri­cal impacts that ought to be taken into consideration by the banking sector and other financial institutions to make decisions with the Euribor index.

In cities around the world, Covid-19 lockdowns have improved outdoor air quality, in some cases dramatically. Even if only temporary, these improvements could have longer-lasting effects on policy by making chronic air pollution more salient and boosting political pressure for change. To that end, it is important to develop objective estimates of both the air quality improvements associated with Covid-19 lockdowns and the benefits these improvements generate. We use panel data econometric models to estimate the effect of Bogotás lockdown on fine particulate pollution, epidemiological models to simulate the effect of reductions in that pollution on long-term and short-term mortality, and benefit transfer methods to estimate the monetary value of the avoided mortality. We find that in its first year of implementation, on average, Bogotás lockdown cut fine particulate pollution by more than one-fifth. However, the magnitude of that effect varied considerably over the course of the year and across the citys neighborhoods. Equivalent permanent reductions in fine particulate pollution would reduce long-term premature deaths by more than one-quarter each year, a benefit valued at $670 million per year. Finally, we estimate that in 2020-2021, the lockdown reduced short-term deaths by 31 percent, a benefit valued at $180 million.