Journal articles on the topic '(Modified) Early Warning Scoring (MEWS/EWS)'

Background. Renal abscess is a relatively uncommon yet debilitating and potentially fatal disease. There is no clearly defined, objective risk stratification tool available for emergency physicians’ and surgeons’ use in the emergency department (ED) to quickly determine the appropriate management strategy for these patients, despite early intervention having a beneficial impact on survival outcomes. Objective. This case control study evaluates the performance of Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score (MEDS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) in predicting risk of mortality in ED adult patients with renal abscess. This will help emergency physicians, surgeons, and intensivists expedite the time-sensitive decision-making process. Methods. Data from 152 adult patients admitted to the EDs of two training and research hospitals who had undergone a contrast-enhanced computed tomography scan of the abdomen and was diagnosed with renal abscess from January 2011 to December 2015 were analyzed, with the corresponding MEDS, MEWS, REMS, RAPS, and mortality risks calculated. Ability to predict patient mortality was assessed via receiver operating curve analysis and calibration analysis. Results. MEDS was found to be the best performing physiologic scoring system, with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 87.50%, 88.89%, and 88.82%, respectively. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) value was 0.9440, and negative predictive value was 99.22% with a cutoff of 9 points. Conclusion. Our study is the largest of its kind in examining ED patients with renal abscess. MEDS has been demonstrated to be superior to MEWS, REMS, and RAPS in predicting mortality for this patient population. We recommend its use for evaluation of disease severity and risk stratification in these patients, to expedite identification of critically ill patients requiring urgent intervention.

Background With an increasing number of motor vehicle crashes, there is an urgent need in emergency departments (EDs) to assess patients with multiple trauma quickly, easily, and reliably. Trauma severity can range from a minor to major threats to life or bodily function. In-hospital mortality and trauma severity prediction in such cases is crucial in the ED for the management of multiple trauma and improvement of the outcome of these patients. Previous studies have examined the performance of Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) or Circulation, Respiration, Abdomen, Motor, and Speech (CRAMS) score based solely on mortality prediction or injury severity prediction. However, to the best of our knowledge, the performances of both scoring systems on in-hospital mortality and trauma severity prediction have not been compared previously. This retrospective study evaluated the value of MEWS and CRAMS score to predict in-hospital mortality and trauma severity in patients presenting to the ED with multiple traumatic injuries. Methods All study subjects were multiple trauma patients. Medical data of 1,127 patients were analyzed between January 2014 and April 2018. The MEWS and CRAMS score were calculated, and logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were conducted to investigate their performances regarding in-hospital mortality and trauma severity prediction. Results For in-hospital mortality prediction, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) for MEWS and CRAMS score were 0.90 and 0.91, respectively, indicating that both of them were good in-hospital mortality predictors. Further, our study indicated that the CRAMS score performed better in trauma severity prediction, with an AUROC value of 0.84, which was higher than that of MEWS (AUROC = 0.77). For trauma severity prediction, the optimal cut-off value for MEWS was 2, while that of the CRAMS score was 8. Conclusions We found that both MEWS and CRAMS score can be used as predictors for trauma severity and in-hospital mortality for multiple trauma patients, but that CRAMS score was superior to MEWS for trauma severity prediction. CRAMS score should be prioritized in the prediction of trauma severity due to its excellence as a multiple trauma triage tool and potential contribution to rapid emergency rescue decisions.

Background A feasible and accurate risk prediction systems for emergency department (ED) patients is urgently required. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a wide-used tool to predict clinical outcomes in ED. Literatures showed that machine learning (ML) had better predictability in specific patient population than traditional scoring system. By analyzing a large multicenter dataset, we aim to develop a ML model to predict in-hospital morality of the adult non traumatic ED patients for different time stages, and comparing performance with other ML models and MEWS. Methods A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in five Taiwan EDs including two tertiary medical centers and three regional hospitals. All consecutively adult (>17 years old) non-traumatic patients admit to ED during a 9-year period (January first, 2008 to December 31th, 2016) were included. Exclusion criteria including patients with (1) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and (2) discharge against medical advice and transferred to other hospital (3) missing collect variables. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and were categorized into 6, 24, 72, 168 hours mortality. MEWS was calculated by systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, body temperature, and level of consciousness. An ensemble supervised stacking ML model was developed and compared to sensitive and unsensitive Xgboost, Random Forest, and Adaboost. We conducted a performance test and examine both the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and the area under the precision and recall curve (AUPRC) as the comparative measures. Result After excluding 182,001 visits (7.46%), study group was consisted of 24,37,326 ED visits. The dataset was split into 67% training data and 33% test data for ML model development. There was no statistically difference found in the characteristics between two groups. For the prediction of 6, 24, 72, 168 hours in-hospital mortality, the AUROC of MEW and ML mode was 0.897, 0.865, 0.841, 0.816 and 0.939, 0.928, 0.913, 0.902 respectively. The stacking ML model outperform other ML model as well. For the prediction of in-hospital mortality over 48-hours, AUPRC performance of MEWS drop below 0.1, while the AUPRC of ML mode was 0.317 in 6 hours and 0.2150 in 168 hours. For each time frame, ML model achieved statistically significant higher AUROC and AUPRC than MEWS (all P < 0.001). Both models showed decreasing prediction ability as time elapse, but there was a trend that the gap of AUROC values between two model increases gradually (P < 0.001). Three MEWS thresholds (score >3, >4, and >5) were determined as baselines for comparison, ML mode consistently showed improved or equally performance in sensitivity, PPV, NPV, but not in specific. Conclusion Stacking ML methods improve predicted in-hospital mortality than MEWS in adult non-traumatic ED patients, especially in the prediction of delayed mortality.

Adaptasi fisiologis yang terjadi pada ibu hamil dapat menyamarkan tanda-tanda penyakit maternal berat. Ini mempersulit identifikasi kolaps maternal yang akan terjadi. Penggunaan early warning system (EWS) yang dimodifikasi untuk penggunaan pada pasien ibu hamil dan postpartum akan membantu dalam identifikasi, treatment dini, dan penanganan pasien yang memiliki, atau akan mengalami, penyakit kritis. Maternal Early Warning System (MEWS) seharusnya mengidentifikasi pasien yang berisiko untuk mengalami perburukan pada saat intervensi dini dapat mencegah perburukan ke morbiditas berat MEWS telah digunakan secara ekstensif dalam praktek obstetrik, tetapi sistem yang digunakan sangat bervariasi. Parameter-parameter yang sering dimasukkan dalam MEWS antara lain denyut jantung, tingkat pernapasan, tekanan darah, dan tingkat kesadaran. Dari berbagai MEWS yang telah dikembangkan, ada tiga MEWS utama, yaitu (1) modified early obstetric warning system (MEOWS), (2) Maternal Early Warning Criteria (MEWC), dan (3) Maternal Early Warning Trigger (MEWT) tool. Hingga kini masih belum diketahui sistem MEWS apa yang terbaik, dan setiap rumah sakit mungkin memerlukan penyesuaian dalam parameter MEWS. Literatur yang ada menunjukkan kemungkinan manfaat dan mendukung penggunaan MEWS. Implementasi dan penggunaan MEWT telah dikaitkan dengan penurunan morbiditas maternal komposit dan morbiditas maternal berat. Akan tetapi, respon apa yang optimal untuk setting tertentu agar memperbaiki pelayanan maternal setelah tanda peringatan muncul hingga kini masih belum jelas. Detection of Critically Ill Obstetric Patients with Maternal Early Warning System Abstract Physiological adaptations that develop in pregnant women may obscure signs of severe maternal diseases. These causes difficulties in identifying the impending maternal collapse. An early warning system (EWS) modified for pregnant and postpartum women may assist in identification, early treatment, and management of patients who already or will develop critical illness. Maternal Early Warning System MEWS has been extensively used in obstetric practices; however, the systems used in preactice are varied. The most considered parameters for MEWS are heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and level of consciousness. From many MEWS developed, three primary MEWS existed, (1) modified early obstetric warning system (MEOWS), (2) Maternal Early Warning Criteria (MEWC), dan (3) Maternal Early Warning Trigger (MEWT) tool. There is still no consensus regarding which MEWS is superior, and different hospitals may require adjustments in MEWS parameters. The existing literatures suggested the potential benefit of MEWS and supported MEWS in clinical practice. Implementation and adoption of MEWS had been associated with reduced composite maternal morbidities and severe maternal morbidities. However, the optimal response for certain settings to improve maternal services after warning system has been activated is still lacking.

(1) Background: The aim was screening the performance of nine Early Warning Scores (EWS), to identify patients at high-risk of premature impairment and to detect intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, as well as to track the 2-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day mortality in a cohort of patients diagnosed with an acute neurological condition. (2) Methods: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal, observational study, calculating the EWS [Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS), Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (MREMS), Early Warning Score (EWS), Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS), Standardised Early Warning Score (SEWS), WHO Prognostic Scored System (WPSS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS)] upon the arrival of patients to the emergency department. (3) Results: In all, 1160 patients were included: 808 patients were hospitalized, 199 cases (17%) required ICU care, and 6% of patients died (64 cases) within 2 days, which rose to 16% (183 cases) within 28 days. The highest area under the curve for predicting the need for ICU admissions was obtained by RAPS and MEWS. For predicting mortality, MREMS obtained the best scores for 2- and 28-day mortality. (4) Conclusions: This is the first study to explore whether several EWS accurately identify the risk of ICU admissions and mortality, at different time points, in patients with acute neurological disorders. Every score analyzed obtained good results, but it is suggested that the use of RAPS, MEWS, and MREMS should be preferred in the acute setting, for patients with neurological impairment.

Background It is unclear which Early Warning System (EWS) score best predicts in-hospital deterioration of patients when applied in the Emergency Department (ED) or prehospital setting. Methods This systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis assessed the predictive abilities of five commonly used EWS scores (National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its updated version NEWS2, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Acute Physiological Score (RAPS), and Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage (CART)). Outcomes of interest included admission to intensive care unit (ICU), and 3-to-30-day mortality following hospital admission. Using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models, pooled estimates were calculated according to the EWS score cut-off points, outcomes, and study setting. Risk of bias was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Meta-regressions investigated between-study heterogeneity. Funnel plots tested for publication bias. The SR is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020191254). Results Overall, 11,565 articles were identified, of which 20 were included. In the ED setting, MEWS, and NEWS at cut-off points of 3, 4, or 6 had similar pooled diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) to predict 30-day mortality, ranging from 4.05 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.35–6.99) to 6.48 (95% CI 1.83–22.89), p = 0.757. MEWS at a cut-off point ≥3 had a similar DOR when predicting ICU admission (5.54 (95% CI 2.02–15.21)). MEWS ≥5 and NEWS ≥7 had DORs of 3.05 (95% CI 2.00–4.65) and 4.74 (95% CI 4.08–5.50), respectively, when predicting 30-day mortality in patients presenting with sepsis in the ED. In the prehospital setting, the EWS scores significantly predicted 3-day mortality but failed to predict 30-day mortality. Conclusion EWS scores’ predictability of clinical deterioration is improved when the score is applied to patients treated in the hospital setting. However, the high thresholds used and the failure of the scores to predict 30-day mortality make them less suited for use in the prehospital setting.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine associations between initially recorded deviations in individual bedside vital parameters that contribute to total Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) levels 2 or 3 and further clinical deterioration (MEWS level=4). Design/methodology/approach This was a prospective study in which 27,504 vital parameter values, corresponding to a total MEWS level⩾2, belonging to 1,315 adult medical and surgical inpatient patients admitted to a 90-bed study setting at a university hospital, were subjected to binary logistic and COX regression analyses to determine associations between vital parameter values initially corresponding to total MEWS levels 2 or 3 and later deterioration to total MEWS level ⩾4, and to evaluate corresponding time intervals. Findings Respiratory rate, heart rate and patient age were significantly (p=0.012, p<0.001 and p=0.028, respectively) associated with further deterioration from a total MEWS level 2, and the heart rate also (p=0.009) from a total MEWS level 3. Within 24 h from the initially recorded total MEWS levels 2 or 3, 8 and 17 percent of patients, respectively, deteriorated to a total MEWS level=4. Patients initially scoring MEWS 2 had a 27 percent 30-day mortality rate if they later scored MEWS level=4, and 8.7 percent if they did not. Practical implications It is important to observe all patients closely, but especially elderly patients, if total MEWS levels 2 or 3 are tachypnoea and/or tachycardia related. Originality/value Findings might contribute to patient safety by facilitating appropriate clinical and organizational decisions on adequate time spans for early warning scoring in general ward patients.

Introduction. At the very beginning of the Corona virus epidemic there was not enough data on whether hemodialysis patients have a higher risk for Corona virus infection and which factors may affect the severity of clinical picture. Objective. The aim of the study was to determine the significance of the Modified Early Warning Assessment (MEWS) score for the assessment of coronavirus disease exacerbation. Methods. The research was conducted in COVID dialysis, as a retrospective, descriptive-analytical study, at the University Clinical Center Kragujevac, Serbia, which was organized ad-hoc for treatment of SARS-Cov-2 infection positive patients, which are transfered from Center for Hemodialysis "Ćuprija". They were evaluated routine laboratory findings, demographic and gender structure, arterial blood pressure, presence of comorbidities and residual diuresis, duration of dialysis, radiological evaluation of lungs, determination of MEWS score were the parameters that were monitored. The results were monitored on admission and and in the end of treatment. Results. A statistically significant difference was registered in serum lactate dehydrogenase concentration (486 ± 107.62 vs. 423.7 ± 92.4 U/L); p = 0.022 and absolute monocyte count (0.46 ± 0.15 vs. 0.67 ± 0.34 x 103; p = 0.008). The significant increase in MEWS score was also found (b = 0.017; p = 0.030). There was a positive correlation between increase of MEWS score and age (b = 0.027; p = 0.002) and arterial hypertension as a concomitant comorbidity (b = 0.700; p = 0.033). Conclusion. In the observed period, there was a significant increase in the degree of MEWS score of dialysis patients who had SARS-Cov-2 infection.

INTRODUCTION The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a simple, physiological score that may allow improvement in the quality and safety of management provided to surgical ward patients. The primary purpose is to prevent delay in intervention or transfer of critically ill patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS A total of 334 consecutive ward patients were prospectively studied. MEWS were recorded on all patients and the primary end-point was transfer to ITU or HDU. RESULTS Fifty-seven (17%) ward patients triggered the call-out algorithm by scoring four or more on MEWS. Emergency patients were more likely to trigger the system than elective patients. Sixteen (5% of the total) patients were admitted to the ITU or HDU. MEWS with a threshold of four or more was 75% sensitive and 83% specific for patients who required transfer to ITU or HDU. CONCLUSIONS The MEWS in association with a call-out algorithm is a useful and appropriate risk-management tool that should be implemented for all surgical in-patients.

Objectives: Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a reliable, safe, instant, and inexpensive score for prognosticating patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) due to its ability to reflect ongoing changes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome associated with AP. Our study sought to determine an optimal MEWS value in predicting severity in AP and determine its accuracy in doing so. Methods: Patients diagnosed with AP and admitted to a single institution were analyzed to determine the value of MEWS in identifying severe AP (SAP). The highest MEWS (hMEWS) score for the day and the mean of all the scores of a given day (mMEWS) were determined for each day. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for the optimal MEWS values obtained. Results: Two hundred patients were included in the study. The data suggested that an hMEWS value > 2 on day one is most accurate in predicting SAP, with a specificity of 90.8% and PPV of 83.3%. An mMEWS of > 1.2 on day two was the most accurate in predicting SAP, with a sensitivity of 81.2%, specificity of 76.6%, PPV of 69.8%, and NPV of 85.9%. These were found to be more accurate than previous studies. Conclusions: MEWS provides a novel, easy, instant, repeatable, and reliable prognostic score that is comparable, if not superior, to existing scoring systems. However, its true value may lie in its use in resource-limited settings such as primary health care centers.

Background: Identification of critically ill patient is particularly important in the emergency department (ED). The prolonged duration from hospital admission to delivering intensive care service is related to increased mortality. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) for identifying critical patients with malignancy in ED settings. Methods: We evaluated patients with malignancy who were admitted to our ED of a tertiary university hospital in Turkey over a three-month period. We evaluated MEWS on admission as MEWS 1. After the initial treatment depending on the patients’ health status in ED, at 2 hours after admission, we evaluated MEWS again and recorded as MEWS 2. All patients were followed up for 30 days after the initial admission. Results: Mean age (SD) was 59.2 (13.5) and male/female ratio was 295/206. MEWS1 was higher than MEWS2, (MEWS1: 3.05 ± 3.31, MEWS2: 2.35 ± 3.17, P < 0.001). A total of 362 patients (72.3%) survived and 139 (27.7%) died within 30 days of initial admission. MEWS1/MEWS2 values for alive and dead patients were 1.66/0.87, and 6.67/6.21, respectively, and the difference was significant (P < 0.001). ROC analysis was performed for MEWS 1; the area under curve (AUC) for hospitalization was 0.768 (95% CI 0.729 to 0.804) and for mortality was 0.900 (95% CI 0.870 to 0.924). ROC analysis revealed a cut-off value of 2 for predicting both hospitalization and mortality in these patients. The sensitivity of the presented cut-off was 77.32% (72.1%–82.0%) for hospitalization and 76.24% (95% CI 71.5–80.5) for mortality; the specificity was 69.52 (95% CI 62.8–75.7) for hospitalization and 90.65 (95% CI 84.65–94.9) for mortality. Conclusion: We found in our study that MEWS evaluation for patients with malignancy on admission to ED is predictive of mortality in the subsequent 30 days, and it is a valuable tool for identifying the critical group. Also, AVPU scores alone can predict mortality in patients admitted to ED.

Introduction: Acute Pancreatitisis leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A third of patientsdevelop severe pancreatitis with progressive organ dysfunction caused by systemic inflammatory response syndrome.Early identification of severe pancreatitis is essential for proper care and preventing complications. Various scoring systems have been developed to determine the severity.An ideal prognostic marker would be that is easily measurable, reproducible and cost effective. Early Warning Score is a simple physiological scoring system that can be reliably measured at the patient’s bedside. This study was aimed to determine the relationship between early warning score and severity of pancreatitis.Methods: Patients admitted with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were included. Early warning score was calculated four hourly for 72 hours. Modified Marshall Score was determined at admission and at 48 hours. Severity of acute pancreatitis as defined by revised Atlanta Classification. EWS was correlated with severity of AP. EWS≥3 for more than 48 hours were regarded as severe pancreatitis and EWS≥3 at any time was regarded as a predictor of severe pancreatitis.Results: Eighty-six patients were included with 24 (27.9%) with severe pancreatitis. The sensitivity, specificity,positive andnegative predictive valueof EWS≥3 persistent for 48 hours or more in predicting severity were 87.5%, 98.38%, 95.45% and 95.31% respectively. Correlation between EWS and severity of pancreatitis was statistically significant.Conclusion: EWS is useful as an easy and reliable prognostic marker of the evolution and complications of acute pancreatitis.Journal of Society of Surgeons of Nepal Vol.17(1) 2014: 16-20

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are the most devastating events in the course of the disease. Our aim was to investigate the value of early warning scoring systems: National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in AECOPD. This is a prospective observational study of patients with AECOPD who were admitted at hospital. The NEWS and MEWS scores were registered at admission (NEWS-d1, MEWS-d1) and on the second day (NEWS-d2, MEWS-d2). A nasopharyngeal and sputum sample was taken for culture. Follow-up was done at 3 and 6 months after hospitalization. Any possible correlations between NEWS and MEWS and other parameters of COPD were explored. A cohort of 64 patients were included. In-hospital mortality was 4.7% while total mortality at 6 months was 26%. We did not find any significant correlation between in-hospital mortality and any of the scores but we could show a higher mortality and more frequent AECOPD at 6 months of follow-up for those with higher NEWS-d2. NEWS-d2 was associated with higher pCO2 at presentation and a more frequent use of NIV. Higher NEWS-d1 and NEWS-d2 were predictive of a longer hospital stay. The presence of pathogens in the nasopharyngeal sample was related with a higher reduction of both scores on the second day. We therefore support the superiority of NEWS in the evaluation of hospitalized patients with AECOPD. A remaining high NEWS at the second day of hospital stay signals a high risk of hypercapnia and need of NIV but also higher mortality and more frequent exacerbations at 6 months after AECOPD.

Background: Crowding in emergency room is the major problem especially in the resuscitation room. Many patients require immediate life-saving interventions (LSI). Whereas, many different scoring systems such as national early warning score (NEWS), worthing physiological scoring system (WPS), modified early warning score (MEWS), and rapid emergency medicine score (REMS) have been developed for assessing patients at risk. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of 4 scoring systems performance in predicting LSI use in emergency room and reenter to the resuscitation room within 48 hours. Methods: Data were collected by a retrospective cross-sectional study of patients treated in the resuscitation room for 2 months period, at Ramathibodi Hospital. The number of patients who received LSI and reentry to resuscitation room were studied, compared by selected scoring systems. Results: Total 839 patients entered resuscitation room, while 331 (39.45%) patients received LSI. The first three groups at risk were metabolic diseases, gastrointestinal systems, and infections, respectively. The most effective scoring system in predicting patients required LSI was MEWS, the discrimination of this system was significantly better than NEWS (AUC, 0.69 vs 0.65; 95% CI, 0.65 - 0.72; P = .01). Eighty-six patients (13.89%) from 619 patients reentered to the resuscitation room. Moreover, NEWS was the most effective in predicting patients who had a risk of reenter (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.66 - 0.78; P < .001). Conclusions: MEWS is the most effective scoring system for patient assessment of LSI utilization. However, NEWS is the one suitable for predicting reenter tendency.

There is increasing interest in predicting and avoiding cardiac arrest in hospitalized patients. Multiple studies have used vital signs or scores based upon them, such as the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). Scoring systems that measure supportive care, such as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and the 28-item Therapeutic Interventions Scoring System (TISS-28) might be superior to systems used in previous studies. This study was performed to determine if a system using SOFA and/or TISS would be superior in detecting clinical deterioration prior to cardiac arrest.Using a retrospective chart review, MEWS, SOFA and TISS-28 scores were calculated for twenty patients at baseline and then in the 24 hours prior to their cardiac arrest. Supportive interventions and nursing care (SOFA and TISS-28) changed more than measures of physiology (MEWS) in the period prior to cardiac arrest, likely due to the fact that vital sign deterioration can be delayed by supportive measures. These results support the idea that a SOFA and/or TISS-28 scoring system might be superior to the MEWS, which could be used to make hospital rapid response teams more effective.

Introduction/Objective. Early warning scoring systems are important for timely identification of the critically ill, but are they a relevant prognostic tool? Our objective was to test if Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), lactate and base excess (BE) have any prognostic value in high dependency unit (HDU) patients. Methods. This was a prospective observational study that included 364 patients who were treated at respiratory HDU. The values of MEWS, lactate and BE at admission were recorded with patients' age, sex and comorbidities. Negative outcome was defined as death or transfer to Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Independent predictors of negative outcome were identified with the use of multivariable logistic regression. Results. Of 369 patients, 203 (55%) were male. Mean age was 62 ? 16. There were 138 (37. 4%) patients with negative outcome: 27.37% died, while 10.03% patients required ICU transfer. The median length of hospital stay was 13 days [IQR 7-15]. Patients with negative outcome had a significantly higher MEWS (3.68 ? 1.965 vs. 4.57 ? 2.33, p < 0.001), lower BE (-0.139 ? 7.48 vs. -3.751 ? 6.159, p < 0.001), and a higher lactate (2.299 ? 2.350 vs. 3.498 ? 3.578, p < 0.001). MEWS ? 4 (OR 1.90, CI 1.082-3.340, p = 0.026) was the only independent predictor of mortality. Area under the curve for MEWS with regard to in-hospital mortality prediction was 0.633 (95% CI 0.569-0.697). When age was added to MEWS, the AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0. 707-0.814). Conclusion. Our findings support the prognostic value of MEWS for final outcome of patients admitted to High Dependency Unit.

Abstract We evaluated the effectiveness of MEWS and biochemical parameters in predicting outcomes for acute medical admissions. Data from consecutive admissions to the Acute Medical Unit (AMU) of National Hospital of Sri Lanka were collected. C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, white cell count, platelet count and haemoglobin values were collected. Adverse endpoints were HDU/ICU admission, cardio-respiratory emergency/resuscitation and death. A MEWS score of >=5 together with increasing age, pulse rate, respiratory rate, AVPU score, CRP, CRP/Albumin ratio and reduced platelet and albumin level all increased the odds of reaching ‘adverse endpoints”. Adding a score for biochemical parameters increased the area under the ROC curve for reaching “adverse endpoints’. Biochemical parameters better predicted length of hospitalstay and adverse outcomes. A combined scoring system improved the sensitivity of prediction.

Aims/Objectives/BackgroundSepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and many tools exist to facilitate early recognition. The current international consensus definition of sepsis recommends the use of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score in the emergency department (ED) to rapidly identify those who are likely to have poor outcomes. Early Warning Scores (EWS) are used more routinely; if these could provide the same information, they could allow standardisation and streamlining of effort.This review compares two toolsqSOFA and EWS (National/Modified Early Warning Scores (NEWS/MEWS)) for predicting intensive care (ICU) admission and mortality when applied to suspected sepsis patients in the ED.Methods/DesignA literature search was conducted using Medline, CINAHL, Embase, and Cochrane Library, hand searching of references and a grey literature search with no language or date restrictions. Two authors selected studies and quality assessment completed using QUADAS-2. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC), sensitivities, and specificities were compared.Results/ConclusionsResults12 studies were included, totalling 395,661 patients. All reported mortality and six reported ICU admission.AUROC estimates were variable ranging from little better than chance to good prediction. The ranges demonstrated overlap between scores suggesting little difference for predicting mortality (NEWS: 0.59–0.88; qSOFA: 0.57–0.79; MEWS 0.56–0.75). However, individual papers mostly reported higher AUROC values for NEWS than qSOFA. NEWS demonstrated a trend to better sensitivity for ICU admission (NEWS≥5 0.46–0.91; qSOFA≥2 0.12–0.53) and mortality (NEWS≥5 0.51–0.97; qSOFA≥2 0.14–0.7) but lower specificity (ICU: NEWS≥5 0.25–0.91; qSOFA≥2 0.67–0.99. Mortality: NEWS≥5 0.22–0.91; qSOFA≥2 0.58–0.99).ConclusionThe wide range of AUROC estimates and high heterogeneity limit our conclusions. Allowing for this, the NEWS AUROC was consistently higher than qSOFA within individual papers. Both scores allow threshold setting, determined by the preferred compromise between sensitivity and specificity. At established thresholds NEWS trended to higher sensitivity whilst qSOFA favoured specificity.

Background: Scoring systems can be used to define critically ill patients, estimate their prognosis, help in clinical decision making, and guide the allocation of resources and to estimate the quality of care. It remains unclear whether the additional data needed to compute ICU scores improves mortality prediction for critically ill patients compared to the simpler ED scores.Methods: We have done a prospective observational study of consecutively admitted 400 critically ill patients to ICU directly from Emergency Department in Dr PSIMS and RF over a period of 2 years. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the modified early warning score (MEWS), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) were recorded for all patients. A comparison was made between ED scoring systems MEWS, REMS and ICU scoring systems APACHE II, SAPSII. The outcome was recorded in two categories: survived and non-survived with a primary end point of 30-day mortality. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.Results: The ICU scores outperformed the ED scores with more area under curve values. The predicted mortality percentage of ICU based scoring systems is high compared to emergency scores (predicted mortality % of SAPS II-63%, APACHE II-33.3%, MEWS-18.5%, REMS-14.8%).Conclusions: ICU scores showed more predictive accuracy than ED scores in prognosticating the outcomes in critically ill patients. This difference is seemed more due to complexity of ICU scores.

319 Background: Sepsis is a life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated response to infection and a major healthcare problem in cancer patients. Patients with cancer are at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from sepsis. Approaches like the modified Early Warning Score (mEWS) could offer an opportunity to identify patients at risk for sepsis earlier and to prompt a timely evaluation. However, available evidence for cancer outpatient settings remains scarce. The aim of this presentation is to describe first results of the mEWS implementation at Huntsman Cancer Hospital (HCC) outpatient clinics. The question, whether patients with sepsis can be detected using this approach will be answered. Methods: In 2015, the University of Utah Healthcare implemented mEWS as prediction tool for sepsis. The automated calculation of mEWS is based on real-time data from the EMR. For this analysis, we extracted a cancer outpatient population from a 15-month time frame (from December 2016 to February 2018) within the EHR. We selected patients with a mEWS > 4, grouped these patients according to the process of care after mEWS scoring (e.g., admitted to ICU) and analyzed subgroup based upon mEWS score, discharge disposition and sepsis diagnosis. Results: Within the analyzed time frame 502 cancer outpatients had a mEWS score of 4 or higher. 88 of these patients (17.5%) were diagnosed with sepsis after mEWS screening. Out of the patients with sepsis, 22 were admitted to ICU, 63 were admitted to a medical floor and 3 were treated at the Huntsman Acute Care Clinic. Out of the 414 without a diagnosis of sepsis, 13 patients were admitted to ICU, 72 patients were admitted to a medical floor (in each case for other reasons then sepsis) and 329 patients were sent to home. Conclusions: Sepsis is a serious problem in cancer outpatient care. In our analysis, one in six patients with a mEWS score of 4 and higher were diagnosed with sepsis. This analysis has shown that the implementation of a real-time, EMR based scoring system like mEWS can support the early detection and treatment of sepsis in this population.

Removal of the intensive care unit (ICU) at the Vale of Leven Hospital mandated the identification and transfer out of those acute medical admissions with a high risk of requiring ICU. The aim of the study was to develop triaging tools that identified such patients and compare them with other scoring systems. The methodology included a retrospective analysis of physiological and arterial gas measurements from 1976 acute medical admissions produced PREEMPT-1 (PRE-critical Emergency Medical Patient Triage). A simpler one for ambulance use (PREAMBLE-1 [PRE-Admission Medical Blue-Light Emergency]) was produced by the addition of peripheral oxygen saturation to a modification of MEWS (Modified Early Warning Score). Prospective application of these tools produced a larger database of 4447 acute admissions from which logistic regression models produced PREEMPT-2 and PREAMBLE-2, which were then compared with the original systems and seven other early warning scoring systems. Results showed that in patients with arterial gases, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was significantly higher in PREEMPT-2 (89·1%) and PREAMBLE-2 (84.4%) than all other scoring systems. Similarly, in all patients, it was higher in PREAMBLE-2 (92.4%) than PREAMBLE-1 (88.1%) and the other scoring systems. In conclusion, risk of requiring ICU can be more accurately predicted using PREEMPT-2 and PREAMBLE-2, as described here, than by other early warning scoring systems developed over recent years.

Introduction: Emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN), an acute necrotizing infection of the kidney and surrounding tissues, is associated with considerable mortality. We evaluated how existing critical care scoring systems could predict the need for intensive care unit (ICU) management for these patients. We also analyzed if CT-imaging further enhances these predictive systems. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 90 consecutive patients diagnosed clinico-radiologically with EPN from January 2011 to September 2020. Five scoring systems were evaluated for their predictive ability for the need for ICU management and mortality risk: National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), ‘quick’ Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score (SIRS), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (SOFA). CT images were classified as per Huang & Tseng and evaluated as stand-alone or added to the different predictive models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for each critical care score and CT-Class using logistic regression, to obtain the area under curve (AUC) value for comparison of ICU admission predictability. Patients were analyzed up till discharge. Results: Ninety patients were diagnosed with EPN. Twenty-six patients required ICU management and nine patients died. The best scoring system to predict the need of early ICU management is NEWS (AUC 0.884). CT Class had no independent predictive power, nor did it add significantly to improvement in most of the early warning scoring systems, but rather guided us to the need for radiological, endourological or surgical intervention. Conclusion: In patients with EPN, the NEWS scoring system predicts best the requirement of ICU care. It aids in triage of patients with EPN to appropriate early management and reduce mortality risk.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) represents an important clinical complication of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and high plasma D-dimer levels could suggest a higher risk of hypercoagulability. We aimed to analyse if laboratory exams, risk assessment scores, comorbidity scores were useful in predicting the VTE in SARS-CoV-2 patients admitted in internal medicine (IM). We evaluated 49 older adults with suspected VTE analysing history and blood chemistry, besides we calculated the Padua Prediction Score, the modified early warning scoring (MEWS) and the modified Elixhauser index (mEI). All patients underwent venous color-doppler ultrasounds of the lower limbs. Out of the 49 patients enrolled (mean age 79.3±14 years), 10 (20.4%) had deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and they were more frequently female (80% vs 20%, p = 0.04). We could not find any association with the Padua Prediction Score, the MEWS, and the mEI. D-dimer plasma levels were also not associated with DVT. In elderly people hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalized in IM, our data, although limited by the sample size, suggest that prediction and diagnosis of VTE is difficult, due to lack of precise biomarkers and scores.

<b>Introduction:</b> Blunt trauma chest contributes to significant number of trauma admissions globally and is a cause of major morbidity and mortality. Many scoring systems and risk factors have been defined in past for prognosticating blunt trauma chest but, none is considered to be gold standard. </br> <b>Aim:</b> This study was conducted to reassess the significance of available scoring systems and others indicators of severity in prognosticating blunt trauma chest patients. </br> <b>Materials and Methods:</b> In this prospective observational study from November 2016 till March 2018, 50 patients with age more than 12 years with blunt chest trauma who required hospitalization were included. Nine risk factors were assessed namely- age of the patient, duration of presentation after trauma, number of ribs fractured, bilateral thoracic injury, evidence of lung contusion, associated extra thoracic injury, need for mechanical ventilation, Revised trauma Score (RTS) and Modified Early Warning Sign Score (MEWS). Severity of blunt thoracic trauma was assessed on following outcomes-SIRS, ARDS and Death. The inferences were drawn with the use of statistical software package SPSS v22.0. </br> <b>Results:</b> The age of 50 patients included in our study with a range of 15 to 76 years, the median age was 35.5 years. Statistically significant association was observed between occurrence of SIRS and multiple ribs fractured (p-value- 0.049), associated extra-thoracic injury (p-value-0.016) and higher MEWS score (p-value-0.025). ARDS occurrence was statistically significantly associated with all the risk factors except age.Death occurred more in patients with delayed duration of presentation to hospital (p-value <0.001), multiple ribs fractured (p-value-0.001), bilateral thoracic injury(p-value<0.001), associated extra-thoracic injury (p-value-0.004), patients who required ventilatory support (p-value<0.001), low RTS (p-value-0.006) and high MEWS (p-value-0.005) on admission. This association was found statistically significant. </br> <b>Conclusion:</b> High MEWS, associated extra-thoracic injuries and multiple rib fractured can very well predict poor outcome in terms of SIRS, ARDS and death. Aggressive treatment protocols should be established for better outcome in these patients with blunt trauma chest.

Background: Early and effective treatment of patients with sepsis requires early recognition in emergency department and understanding the severity of the disease. Many studies have been conducted for this purpose, and many of scoring systems have been developed that provide early recognition of these patients and show their severity. Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of the scoring systems used to determine the mortality of patients with infections admitted in emergency department. Methods: In all, 400 patients who admitted to Uludağ University Hospital Emergency Department were prospectively included in this study. In addition to Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score, Quick SOFA score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score in all patients, CURB-65 score was calculated in the patients diagnosed with pneumonia. It has been aimed to determine the power of these scores’ predictive mortality rates and their superiority to each other. Results: It was found that Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score and Quick SOFA score could be used with similar efficacy (respectively p = 0.761 and p = 0.073) in determining early mortality in emergency department (5th and 14th days) and that MEDS score was more effective (p < 0.001) in predicting the 28th-day mortality. While these recommendations were valid in patients diagnosed with pneumonia, it was determined that CURB-65 score could also be used to estimate 5th-, 14th-, and 28th-day mortalities (respectively, for the 5th day, p = 0.894 and p = 0.256; for the 14th day, p = 0.425 and p = 0.098; and for the 28th day, p = 0.095 and p = 0.158). The power of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score, previously used to identify sepsis, in predicting mortality was detected to be lower. Conclusion: Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score and Quick SOFA score could be used with similar efficacy in determining early mortality in emergency department. However, if you want to predict 28th-day mortality rate, it can be better to use Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score or CURB-65 (in patients diagnosed with pneumonia).

The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of the pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (pNEWS) and the pre-hospital Modified Early Warning Score (pMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). We also compare the value of the pNEWS with that of the ED NEWS (eNEWS) and ED MEWS (eMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality. This retrospective, single-centre observational study was carried out in the ED of Jikei University Kashiwa Hospital, in Chiba, Japan, from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018. All patients aged 65 years or older were included in this study. The pNEWS/eNEWS were derived from seven common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, the presence of inhaled oxygen parameters, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive (AVPU) score, whereas the pMEWS/eMEWS were derived from six common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and AVPU score. Discrimination was assessed by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS were significantly higher at admission than at discharge (p < 0.001). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS of non-survivors were significantly higher than those of the survivors (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.559 for the pNEWS and 0.547 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting admission (p = 0.102). The AUCs for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.678 for the pNEWS and 0.652 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = 0.081). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.628 for the eNEWS and 0.591 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting admission (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.789 for the eNEWS and 0.720 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). For admission and in-hospital mortality, the AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the pNEWS (p < 0.001, p < 0.001), and the AUC of the eMEWS was significantly greater than that of the pMEWS (p < 0.01, p < 0.05). Our single-centre study has demonstrated the low utility of the pNEWS and the pMEWS as predictors of admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients, whereas the eNEWS and the eMEWS predicted admission and in-hospital mortality more accurately. Evidence from multicentre studies is needed before introducing pre-hospital versions of risk-scoring systems.

Background Racial disparities in health care are well documented in the United States. As machine learning methods become more common in health care settings, it is important to ensure that these methods do not contribute to racial disparities through biased predictions or differential accuracy across racial groups. Objective The goal of the research was to assess a machine learning algorithm intentionally developed to minimize bias in in-hospital mortality predictions between white and nonwhite patient groups. Methods Bias was minimized through preprocessing of algorithm training data. We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic health record data from patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at a large academic health center between 2001 and 2012, drawing data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care–III database. Patients were included if they had at least 10 hours of available measurements after ICU admission, had at least one of every measurement used for model prediction, and had recorded race/ethnicity data. Bias was assessed through the equal opportunity difference. Model performance in terms of bias and accuracy was compared with the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE). Results The machine learning algorithm was found to be more accurate than all comparators, with a higher sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic. The machine learning algorithm was found to be unbiased (equal opportunity difference 0.016, P=.20). APACHE was also found to be unbiased (equal opportunity difference 0.019, P=.11), while SAPS II and MEWS were found to have significant bias (equal opportunity difference 0.038, P=.006 and equal opportunity difference 0.074, P<.001, respectively). Conclusions This study indicates there may be significant racial bias in commonly used severity scoring systems and that machine learning algorithms may reduce bias while improving on the accuracy of these methods.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI MORTALITAS PADA PASIEN DENGAN FRAKTUR COSTA: Literature Review Anna Tri Wahyuni1), Masfuri2), Liya Arista3)1,2,3 Fakultas Ilmu Keperawatan Universitas Indonesia ABSTRAK Cedera paling umum yang terjadi pada trauma tumpul adalah fraktur costa (patah tulang iga/rusuk) dimana mekanisme cedera berpotensi mengancam jiwa. Pasien fraktur costa yang menunjukkan tingkat keparahan trauma lebih dari 90% melibatkan kepala, perut dan ekstremitas. Nyeri yang dirasakan akibat dari fraktur costa berkontribusi pada gangguan pernafasan, peningkatan resiko pneumonia dan gagal nafas yang meningkatkan angka morbiditas dan mortalitas. Pedoman penanganan fraktur costa sangat dibutuhkan untuk terjadinya komplikasi. Studi literature ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi mortalitas pada pasien fraktur costa. Metode penulisan artikel ini menggunakan literature review yang didapat melalui 5 online database yaitu Sage Publishing, Science Direct, SpringerLink, Pub Med dan Google Scholar. Kriteria inklusi jurnal terkait meliputi: free fulltext, berbahasa Indonesia atau Bahasa asing lainnya, metode penelitian prospective, retrospective, case-control, cohort dan terbit antara tahun 2004-2021. Kata kunci yang yang digunakan dalam pencarian adalah “Respiratory depression OR Respiratory failure AND fraktur ribs AND Mortality”. Dari pencarian artikel diperoleh hasil akhir sebanyak 7 artikel yang relevan dan dilakukan proses review. Artikel tersebut menunjukkan hasil bahwa angka mortalitas dipengaruhi oleh faktor usia, skor keparahan cedera, jumlah patah tulang rusuk, dan implementasi penanganan infeksi. Faktor usia, tingkat keparahan cedera dan jumlah tulang rusuk yang patah menentukan tinggi rendahnya angka mortalitas pasien fraktur costa. Penanganan yang tepat dan manajemen nyeri yang sesuai dapat mempengaruhi penurunan angka morbiditas dan mortalitas pasien dengan fraktur costa. Pengembangan intervensi perawatan pasien fraktur costa terkait manajemen nyeri dan kontrol infeksi menjadi penelitian menarik selanjutnya.Kata kunci : Depresi pernafasan, gagal nafas, fraktur iga, angka kematian, angka kesakitanABSTRACT The most common injury in blunt trauma is a rib fracture, where the mechanism of injury is potentially life-threatening. Patients with rib fracture whose severity of the injury is greater than 90% are associated with damage to the head, abdomen, and extremities. Pain from rib fractures contributes to respiratory failure, increasing the risk of pneumonia and respiratory failure, which increases morbidity and mortality. Recommendations are needed for the treatment of complicated rib fractures. This literature study aims to analyze the factors that influence mortality in rib fracture patients. The method of writing this article uses a literature review sourced from 5 online databases, namely Sage Publishing, Science Direct, SpringerLink, Pub Med, and Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria for related journals included: free full text, in Bahasa or another foreign language, prospective, retrospective, case-control, cohort study method, and published between 2004 and 2021. Keywords used in the search were: "respiratory depression OR respiratory failure AND rib fractures AND death." From the article search results, we obtained 7 relevant articles which are the final results and a review process is carried out. The article showed that mortality was influenced by age, injury severity score, number of rib fractures, and infection control practices. The mortality rate of patient with rib fracture is determined by Factors such as age, severity of injury, and number of rib fractures. Appropriate care and adequate pain management can help reduce morbidity and mortality in patients with rib fractures. Another interesting research is the development of interventions in the treatment of rib fracture patients related to pain management and infection control.Key words: respiratory depression; respiratory failure; rib fracture; mortality; morbidity. Alamat korespondensi: RSUD Dr.Kanujoso Djatiwibowo Jalan MT.Haryono No 656 Ringroad BalikpapanEmail: annazahra30@gmail.com PENDAHULUAN Fraktur costa adalah cedera pada dada karena trauma tumpul, tajam atau kondisi patologis angka morbiditas dan mortilitas. Berdasarkan Western Trauma Association (WTA) sekitar 10% kematian pada orang dewasa muda disebabkan oleh cedera patah tulang rusuk yang melibatkan kepala, perut dan ekstremitas. Sebaliknya, pasien lanjut usia dengan patah tulang rusuk memiliki setidaknya 20% kematian yang secara langsung menyebabkan gagal napas progresif dan pneumonia (Brasel et al., 2017). Risiko pneumonia meningkat sebesar 27%, dan kematian meningkat sebesar 19% untuk setiap fraktur costa lebih dari 2 pada kelompok lanjut usia (Wanek & Mayberry, 2004). Pasien dengan trauma dada atau fraktur costa harusnya dilakukan pemantauan ketat sejak masuk rumah sakit, 24 jam pertama merupakan identifikasi awal adanya komplikasi yang menyebabkan depresi pernafasan. Menurut penelitian Coary, et.al (2020) fraktur costa adalah cedera paling serius pada 55% pasien berusia di atas 60 tahun yang menyebabkan kematian karena 90% dari patah tulang rusuk menunjukkan cedera tambahan pada pemeriksaan sistemik. Trauma langsung dan hipoventilasi yang diinduksi nyeri menyebabkan komplikasi pernafasan sehingga menjadi beban morbiditas dan mortalitas. Komplikasi yang sering terjadi adalah pneumotoraks diikuti hemothoraks, kontusio paru dan flail chest.Nyeri adalah suatu pengalaman sensorik yang multidimensional dengan fenomena yang berbeda dalam intensitas (ringan,sedang, berat), kualitas (tumpul, seperti terbakar, tajam), durasi (transien, intermiten,persisten), dan penyebaran (superfisial atau dalam, terlokalisir atau difus) (Bahrudin, 2018). Induksi nyeri pada pasien dengan fraktur costa menyebabkan pasien kesulitan bernafas dimana keparahan memar paru yang mendasarinya signifikan dengan terjadinya hipoksemia atau gangguan pernafasan. Hal ini menyebabkan pasien cenderung membatasi pergerakan dan menjadi tirah baring lama. Kondisi tirah baring lama menyebabkan tubuh mengalami penurunan berbagai fungsi secara sistematis, yang disebut dengan sindroma dekondisi dan rentan terjadinya infeksi (Hashem, Nelliot, & Needham, 2016; Hunter, Johnson, & Coustasse, 2014; Phelan, Lin, Mitchell, & Chaboyer, 2018 dalam Ananta & Fitri, 2020).Fraktur costa atau patah tulang rusuk secara klinis penting disebabkan tiga hal yaitu: sebagai penanda penyakit serius cedera intrathoraks dan perut, sebagai sumber rasa sakit yang signifikan, dan sebagai prediktor untuk kerusakan paru, terutama pada pasien usia lanjut. Organ perut yang paling sering terluka adalah hati dan limpa. Pasien dengan patah tulang rusuk kanan, memiliki 19% hingga 56% kemungkinan cedera hati, sedangkan patah tulang sisi kiri memiliki 22% hingga 28% kemungkinan cedera limpa (Wanek & Mayberry, 2004). Kematian pada orang dewasa dan lansia cenderung terjadi kemudian (≥72 jam setelah masuk) dan biasanya sebagai akibat dari kegagalan multi-organ yang dipicu oleh insufisiensi pernapasan dan pneumonia sehingga tingkat kematian secara keseluruhan, tanpa memandang usia, diperkirakan antara 10 dan 12% (Wanek & Mayberry, 2004). Tingkat mortalitas untuk pasien trauma usia lanjut yang mengalami patah tulang rusuk lebih besar daripada mereka yang tidak mengalami cedera toraks (Coary, et.al, 2020). Penelitian yang dilakukan Marini, et.al, (2021) menyatakan indikator penyebab kematian pada pasien fraktur costa dengan atau tanpa trauma kepala dan cedera organ adalah usia, jenis kelamin, ISS (Injury Severe Score), dan GCS (Glasglow Coma Scale).Berdasarkan uraian diatas maka peneliti ingin menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi angka morbiditas dan mortalitas pada pasien dengan fraktur costa untuk meningkatkan pemahaman tentang penanganan fraktur costa serta mengidentifikasi dari beberapa artikel terkini dalam mengurangi mortalitas. METODE PENELITIAN Metode penulisan artikel ini menggunakan literature review yaitu studi yang berfokus pada hasil penulisan yang berkaitan dengan topik, tema atau variabel penulisan.dan dipakai untuk menghimpun data atau sebuah sintesa sumber-sumber yang berhubungan dengan topik penelitian (Nursalam, 2017). Didapatkan 5 database yang dilakukan melalui pencarian elektronik dari yaitu Sage Publishing, Science Direct, SpringerLink, Pub Med dan Google Scholar. Kriteria inklusi telaah jurnal ini adalah free fulltext, berbahasa Indonesia atau bahasa asing lainnya, dengan metode penelitian prospective, retrospective, case-control, cohort dan terbit tahun 2004-2021. Kata kunci yang yang digunakan dalam pencarian adalah “Respiratory depression OR Respiratory failure AND fraktur ribs AND Mortality”. HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN Berdasarkan hasil studi literature terdapat banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi terjadinya depresi pernafasan pada pasien fraktur costa yang dapat menyebabkan kematian. Terdapat 17.500 artikel yang muncul setelah dilakukan telusur berdasarkan kata kunci dalam google scholar, 10.000 artikel tidak masuk kriteria inklusi, 350 artikel duplikat dengan database yang lain. Kemudian sisanya disaring kembali berdasarkan hasil abstrak, metode dan hasil temuan sesuai topik peneliti yang diinginkan dan diperoleh 7 artikel yang relevan dan tersedia dalam bentuk fulltext. Beberapa penelitian terkait pencegahan depresi pernafasan pada fraktur costa berfokus pada manajemen nyeri baik secara farmakologis maupun non farmakologis. Penanganan dan pemantauan yang ketat dapat mengurangi komplikasi yang menyebabkan terjadinya depresi pernafasan. Berikut faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi angka morbiditas dan mortalitas pada fraktur costa menurut Coary, et.al (2020) yaitu: (1) Usia, pasien berusia > 65 tahun memiliki kematian 2-5 kali lebih tinggi dibandingkan usia dibawahnya pada kondisi fraktur costa lebih dari dua. Pasien dengan komorbid sering menjadi faktor penyulit ditambah dengan kondisi paru-paru yang buruk (misal: perokok). Faktor pemulihan menjadi terhambat disebabkan osteoporosis, sistem pernafasan yang buruk, gangguan pertukaran gas dan tergambar dari lama rawat inap. (2) Jumlah patah tulang, dari beberapa penelitian meta-analisis diperoleh hasil jumlah absolut fraktur tulang rusuk yang berjumlah >2 maka dua kali lebih mungkin meninggal dunia dibandingkan pasien dengan 1-2 patah tulang rusuk. (3) Posisi anatomi patah tulang, Fraktur costa bilateral memiliki resiko kematian lebih tinggi dimana segmen flail chest menghasilkan gerak paradox yang menyebabkan pergerakan dinding dada mengarah kedalam saat inspirasi sedangkan tulang rusuk yang sehat bergerak keluar sehingga ventilasi tidak adekuat dan terjadi depresi pernafasan dan kematian. Berbeda dengan penelitian yang dilakukan Brasel et al., (2006) faktor yang paling mempengaruhi kematian adalah faktor usia ditandai dengan Injury Severity Score (ISS) jika dikaitkan dengan peningkatan terjadinya pneumonia. Analisis yang menyatakan komorbiditas mempengaruhi kematian hal ini disertai dengan faktor usia bukan karena faktor komorbiditas murni. Komorbiditas yang biasanya menyertai fraktur costa menurut penelitian adalah komorbiditas yang spesifik seperti gagal jantung kongestif, aritmia, gagal ginjal, penyakit hati, kanker metastatik dan penyakit neurologis.Pada penelitian Bulger et al dalam Wanek & Mayberry, (2004), membandingkan pasien yang berusia minimal 65 tahun keatas dengan usia 18-64 tahun dengan metode cohort pada kasus fraktur costa pada kelompok >65 tahun memiliki dua kali mortalitas dan morbiditas yang tinggi. Risiko pneumonia meningkat sebesar 27%, dan kematian meningkat sebesar 19% untuk setiap fraktur tulang rusuk tambahan pada kelompok lanjut usia.Nyeri adalah keluhan yang paling dirasakan oleh pasien dengan fraktur costa. Oleh sebab itu penanganan manajemen nyeri untuk mengontrol nyeri terus-menerus dan mencegah depresi pernafasan harus diberikan terapi yang agresif dengan pendekatan multimodalitas. Penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Peek, et.al, (2019) dengan membandingkan pemberian analgesik dengan 4 metode yaitu analgesia epidural, analgesia intravena, blok paravertebral dan blok intercostal, diperoleh hasil berdasarkan systematic review dan meta-analysis analgesia epidural signifikan mengurangi rasa sakit dibandingkan intervensi yang lain. Intervensi keperawatan sendiri menekankan pada terapi non farmakologis untuk kontrol nyeri pada pasien fraktur. Terapi nonfarmakologis dengan guided imagery dapat mengurangi intensitas dan skala nyeri pada pasien fraktur. Guided imagery mempengaruhi hampir semua fisiologis sistem kontrol tubuh yaitu pernapasan, denyut jantung, tekanan darah, tingkat metabolisme dalam sel, mobilitas dan sekresi gastrointestinal, fungsi seksual, dan bahkan respon imun (Rossman, 2000). Intervensi ini juga dapat mempercepat penyembuhan pasien dan mengurangi hari rawat inap (Forward et.al, 2015) Gambar 1. Algorithma fraktur costa (Brasel K.J, et.al, 2016).Western Trauma Association (WTA) menyatakan algorithma penanganan fraktur costa sebagai suatu observasi atau pemantauan ketat pada fraktur costa lebih dari 2 patah tulang (Brasel et.al, 2017). Berdasarkan algoritma diatas maka pasien dengan patah tulang rusuk >2 dengan usia lebih dari 65 tahun jika pada observasi kurang dari 24 jam menunjukkan peningkatan pada depresi pernafasan maka segera pindahkan ke ICU dan pertimbangkan penggunaan ventilator dan operasi rib fixaxion. Penggunaan terapi analgesia epidural digunakan untuk kontrol nyeri dilanjutkan batuk efektif, tehnik relaksasi nafas dalam dan mobilisasi dini (Brasel et.al, 2017). Analisis terkait studi literatur untuk memperkuat hasil analisis terdapat pada masing-masing artikel dibawah ini. Tabel 1. Artikel terkait faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi terjadinya depresi pernafasan pada pasien dengan fraktur costa.Study citationMetode penelitian Desain PenelitianSampel dan Jumlah sampelHasil temuanA multidisciplinary clinical pathway decreases rib fracture–associated infectious morbidity and mortality in high-risk trauma patientsTodd,et.al,(2006)prospective cohort study Non eksperimental150 pasien dari Februari 2002-Oktober 2004 dengan > 45 tahun dan>4 patah tulang rusuk.Diperoleh hasil usia, skor keparahan cedera, dan jumlah patah tulang rusuk, jalur klinis menurunkan mekanisme hari tergantung ventilator, lama rawat inap, morbiditas infeksi, dan mortalitas dengan (interval kepercayaan 95% [CI] P<0.01).Predicting outcome of patients with chest wall injuryPressley, et.al, (2012)retrospectively reviewedNon eksperimental649 pasien (Juni 2008 hingga Februari 2010) termasuk usia, jumlah patah tulang, cedera bilateral, adanya kontusio paru, klasifikasi memar, LOS, masuk ICU, ventilasi mekanikSebuah sistem penilaian sederhana memprediksi kemungkinan bahwa pasien akan memerlukan ventilasi mekanik dan perawatan yang berkepanjangan. Skor 7 atau 8 memprediksi peningkatan risiko kematian, penerimaanke ICU, dan intubasi. Skor 5 memprediksi lama tinggal yang lebih lama dan periode ventilasi yang lebih lama. Factors Affecting Pneumonia Occurring to Patients with Multiple Rib FracturesByun & Kim., (2013).retrospectively reviewedNon eksperimentalData rekam medis 327 pasien laki-laki rata-rata usia 53 tahun dengan fraktur costa akibat kecelakaan dari Januari 2002- Desember 2008.Faktor yang mempengaruhi pneumonia pada pasien dengan fraktur tulang rusuk multipel dalam analisis multivariat termasuk usia (p=0,004), ISS (p＜0,001), dan skor tulang rusuk(p=0,038). Penggunaan antibiotik tidak berhubungan dengan kejadian pneumonia (p=0,28).Determinants of Mortality in Chest Trauma PatientsEkpe & Eyo, (2014)Retrospective and prospective Non eksperimental149 pasien dengan trauma thoraks 121 laki-laki, 28 perempuan dari Januari 2007-Desember 2011Variabel bebas, umur, jenis kelamin dan jenis cedera dada tidak terbukti berkorelasi dengan mortalitas dengan nilai P >0,05. Namun adanya cedera organ ekstra toraks terkait, skor MEWS saat masuk tinggi> 9, cedera pada interval presentasi lebih dari 24 jam, dan cedera dada yang parah ditandai dengan keterlibatan dada bilateral yang berkorelasi positif dengan mortalitas dengan nilai P <0,05.The number of displaced rib fractures is more predictive for complications in chest trauma patientsChien et.al, (2017)retrospectively reviewedNon eksperimentalJanuari 2013 -Mei 2015 diperoleh data di rumah sakit dengan total pasien 3151. Pasien yang dirawat dengan trauma dada dan patah tulang rusuk, termasuk cedera otak, limpa, panggul atau hatiJumlah patah tulang rusuk yang bergeser bisa menjadi prediktor kuat untuk berkembangnya penyakit paru-paru komplikasi. Untuk pasien dengan kurang dari tiga patah tulang rusuk tanpa perpindahan tulang rusuk dan paru-paru awal atau cedera organ lainnya, manajemen rawat jalan bisa aman dan efisien.Is the number of rib fractures a risk factor for delayed complications? Flores-Funes, et.al, (2020)Retrospective case–control studyNon eksperimentalPasien yang dirawat dengan diagnosis patah tulang rusuk antara 2010 dan 2014, diperoleh 141 pasien.Tidak ada perbedaan dalam karakteristik dasar pasien (usia, jenis kelamin dan Indeks Komorbiditas Charlson) antara kedua kelompok. Perbedaan ditemukan pada jumlah fraktur pada kelompok tanpa komplikasi p>0,05 (tidak signifikan) pada kelompok dengan komplikasi, (p=0,05) dan pada penurunan kadar hemoglobin (p=0,01). Hari rawat inap bervariasi pada setiap kelompok tetapi tanpa signifikansi statistik (p=0,11). Kesimpulan: Jumlah fraktur iga yang paling baik memprediksi munculnya komplikasi (delayed pleuro-pulmonary) dan perdarahan yang lebih besar) adalah patah tulang rusuk 3 atau lebihPredictors of mortality in patients with rib fracturesMarini, et.al, (2021) Retrospective review Non eksperimental1188 pasien patah tulang rusuk dan cedera tambahan yang dirawat selama Januari 2013-Desember 2014; 800 laki-laki dan 388 perempuan Usia, GCS, jenis kelamin laki-laki, dan Injury Severity Score (ISS) tetapi tidak jumlah patah tulang rusuk dan/atau Pulmonary contusion merupakan prediksi kematian. Peningkatan mortalitas pada pasien patah tulang rusuk dimulai pada usia 65-80 tahun tanpa peningkatan lebih lanjut. Jumlah patah tulang rusuk bukan faktor independen peningkatan mortalitas terlepas dari usia. Severe traumatic brain injury adalah penyebab kematian paling umum pada pasien usia 16-65 tahun, dibandingkan dengan komplikasi pernapasan pada pasien berusia 80 tahun atau lebih. Banyak penelitian yang telah dilakukan untuk menentukan faktor prediktor kematian pada pasien fraktur costa. Dari 7 artikel di atas terdapat berbagai bukti yang mempengaruhi kematian akibat fraktur costa dengan metode penelitian yang berbeda.Penelitian Chien, et.al, (2017) dan Flores-Funes, et.al, (2020) menunjukkan hasil yang hampir sama dimana jumlah fraktur costa yang >2 akan meningkatkan angka morbiditas dan mortalitas dikarenakan faktor komplikasi pada paru. Berbeda dengan penelitian yang dilakukan Marini, et.al, (2021) yang menyatakan jumlah dari fraktur costa tidak memprediksi peningkatan mortalitas terlepas dari usia. Menurut peneliti faktor usia menjadi prediktor utama dalam menentukan angka mortalitas pada pasien dengan fraktur costa, dimana peningkatan mortalitas pada pasien patah tulang rusuk dimulai pada usia 65-80 tahun ke atas.Penelitian yang dilakukan Todd et.al,(2006) menghasilkan hipotesa bahwa usia, skor keparahan cedera, dan jumlah patah tulang rusuk, dan implementasi jalur klinis signifikan dengan penurunan lama perawatan di unit perawatan intensif, lama rawat inap di rumah sakit, infeksi pneumonia, dan mortalitas. Maka semakin lanjut usia, tingkat keparahan yang tinggi dan jumlah patah tulang rusuk bilateral atau >2 dapat meningkatkan angka morbiditas dan mortalitas pasien dengan fraktur costa.Penelitian Pressley et.al, (2012) dilakukan dengan melakukan analisis dengan menggunakan trauma dada scoring system dimana skor >7 memprediksi peningkatan risiko kematian, penerimaan ke ICU, dan intubasi. Penilaian scoring system ini dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi kemungkinan pasien akan memerlukan ventilasi mekanik dan perawatan yang berkepanjangan sehingga dapat memperparah penyakit, menimbulkan infeksi oportunistik dan menyebabkan resiko mortalitas.Penelitian Ekpe & Eyo, (2014) menggunakan system MEWS (modified early warning signs) untuk menganalis faktor prognosis pada pasien dengan trauma dada. Sebagai variabel bebas, umur, jenis kelamin dan jenis cedera dada tidak terbukti berkorelasi dengan mortalitas dengan nilai P >0,05. Namun adanya cedera organ ekstra toraks terkait, skor MEWS saat masuk tinggi> 9, dimana interval presentasi lebih dari 24 jam dengan cedera dada yang parah ditandai dengan keterlibatan dada bilateral, berkorelasi positif pada mortalitas. Berbeda dengan penelitian sebelumnya Byun & Kim., (2013) dimana faktor umur berpengaruh pada terjadinya infeksi pneumonia dan meningkatkan angka mortilitas dengan atau tanpa diikuti tingkat keparahan pada trauma dada.Berdasarkan analisis diatas terdapat persamaan hasil penelitian dimana rata-rata metode penelitian yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan retrospective review non eksperimental. Peneliti mengamati data rekam medis dari beberapa rentang waktu dengan kriteria inklusi menderita patah tulang rusuk lebih dari dua. Namun, terdapat kriteria yang berbeda-beda pula dimana peneliti memasukkan trauma tambahan seperti brain injury dan cedera pada organ yang lain. Jumlah sampel antara penelitian satu dengan yang lain juga berbeda dari ratusan hingga ribuan data yang dianalisis. Hal ini menyebabkan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh sedikit berbeda antara satu dengan yang lain.Manajemen fraktur costa berfokus pada manajemen nyeri yang adekuat, batuk efektif, relaksasi nafas dalam dan mobilisasi dini (Brasel et al., 2017). Berdasarkan beberapa penelitian manajemen nyeri pada pasien orthopedic terutama pasca operasi adalah dengan guided imagery. The American Holistic Nurses Association menyatakan guided imagery adalah modalitas holistik yang membantu klien dalam menghubungkan pengetahuan batin mereka pada pemikiran, perasaan, dan tingkat penginderaan, mempromosikan penyembuhan bawaan mereka dengan kemampuan bersama-sama memandu klien mengatasi stres; resolusi konflik; masalah pemberdayaan diri; dan persiapan medis-bedah (Integrative & Review, 2016). Oleh sebab itu, guided imagery tepat jika digunakan pada managemen nyeri non farmakologis yang diterapkan dalam intervensi keperawatan.Dalam teori keperawatan Jean Watson tentang Transpersonal Caring mendefinisikan hubungan manusia yang bersifat caring, bersatu dengan orang lain dengan menghargai klien seutuhnya termasuk keberadaannya di dunia (Alligood, 2014). Watson menyatakan kepedulian transpersonal caring adalah dasar dari teori kepedulian manusia dimana fokus dari kepedulian transpersonal adalah pada peduli, penyembuhan, dan keutuhan, bukan pada penyakit, sakit dan patologi yang mencakup 10 faktor karatif dalam konsep utamanya (Integrative & Review, 2016). Sesuai dengan teori Watson, Guided Imagery (GI) menggabungkan kedua sains (melalui praktik berbasis bukti) dan seni (melalui aplikasi untuk berlatih) untuk mengobati rasa sakit pasien menggunakan imaginasi terbimbing dan teknik relaksasi nafas dalam. Kombinasi dengan terapi obat, GI menyediakan rezim pengobatan holistik untuk manajemen nyeri untuk menenangkan pikiran dan merilekskan tubuh mereka, memberikan kesempatan bagi klien untuk menciptakan lingkungan penyembuhan internalnya sendiri (Integrative & Review, 2016).Intervensi keperawatan untuk batuk efektif dan mobilisasi dini termasuk poin penting dalam manajemen perawatan pasien fraktur costa. Batuk efektif adalah suatu metode batuk dengan benar dan pasien dapat mengeluarkan dahak secara maksimal untuk mengeluarkan sekret dari saluran pernapasan bawah (Potter dan Perry, 2006). Mobilisasi sendiri dapat menghasilkan outcome yang baik bagi pasien seperti meningkatkan pertukaran gas, mengurangi angka Ventilator Associated Pneumoia (VAP), mengurangi durasi penggunaan ventilator, dan meningkatkan kemampuan fungsional jangka panjang (Green, Marzano, Leditschke, Mitchell, & Bissett, 2016 dalam Ananta & Fitri, 2020). Oleh sebab itu, kedua intervensi ini perlu diteliti lebih lanjut guna mengembangkan riset terkait manajemen pasien fraktur costa. SIMPULAN Pasien dengan usia lanjut dengan patah tulang rusuk atau fraktur costa biasanya menunjukkan tingkat kelemahan, multi-morbiditas, dan kompleksitas medis yang tinggi (Coary, et.al, 2020). Hal ini tentu menjadi penghambat dalam faktor penyembuhan tulang dan dapat meningkatkan angka mortalitas. Pemaparan hasil analisis menggambarkan faktor usia, cedera tulang rusuk atau costa bilateral lebih dari 2, terjadinya komplikasi dan cedera pada organ lain menyebabkan pasien harus dirawat di ruang ICU lebih lama karena resiko infeksi dan komplikasi yang dapat meningkatkan angka morbiditas dan mortalitas.Terlepas dari faktor usia, tingkat keparahan cedera dan jumlah tulang rusuk yang patah menentukan haluaran pasien yang lebih baik. Penanganan fraktur costa yang tepat yang berfokus pada kontrol kerusakan, manajemen nyeri, fiksasi seleksi, dan kualitas hidup mempengaruhi penurunan angka morbiditas dan mortalitas pasien dengan fraktur costa. Kedudukan dan peran perawat spesialis dalam tugas mengatur asuhan klien dengan kompleksitas tinggi menjadi sangat penting (Masfuri, et.all, 2019) SARAN Penelitian klinis terkait implementasi keperawatan berbasis kasus masih jarang dilakukan. Implementasi keperawatan pada pasien dengan fraktur costa terkait manajemen nyeri dan kontrol infeksi menjadi penelitian yang menarik untuk dilakukan karena hal ini menjadi indikator faktor yang mempengaruhi angka mortalitas pasien dengan fraktur costa. DAFTAR PUSTAKA Alligood Raile Martha,2014, Nursing Theorits and their Work, 8th edition, by Mosby, an imprint of Elsevier IncAnanta Tanujiarso, B., & Fitri Ayu Lestari, D. (2020). Mobilisasi Dini Pada Pasien Kritis Di Intensive Care Unit (Icu): Case Study. 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Background: Early Warning Scores (EWS), including the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and Modified NEWS (NEWS-C), have been recommended for triage decision in patients with COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of these EWS in COVID-19 has not been fully validated. The study aimed to investigate the predictive value of EWS to detect clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19.Methods: Between February 7, 2020 and February 17, 2020, patients confirmed with COVID-19 were screened for this study. The outcomes were early deterioration of respiratory function (EDRF) and need for intensive respiratory support (IRS) during the treatment process. The EDRF was defined as changes in the respiratory component of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at day 3 (ΔSOFAresp = SOFA resp at day 3–SOFAresp on admission), in which the positive value reflects clinical deterioration. The IRS was defined as the use of high flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy, noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation. The performances of EWS including NEWS, NEWS 2, NEWS-C, Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS), Hamilton Early Warning Scores (HEWS), and quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) for predicting EDRF and IRS were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).Results: A total of 116 patients were included in this study. Of them, 27 patients (23.3%) developed EDRF and 24 patients (20.7%) required IRS. Among these EWS, NEWS-C was the most accurate scoring system for predicting EDRF [AUROC 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69–0.89)] and IRS [AUROC 0.89 (95% CI, 0.82–0.96)], while NEWS 2 had the lowest accuracy in predicting EDRF [AUROC 0.59 (95% CI, 0.46–0.720)] and IRS [AUROC 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57–0.81)]. A NEWS-C ≥ 9 had a sensitivity of 59.3% and a specificity of 85.4% for predicting EDRF. For predicting IRS, a NEWS-C ≥ 9 had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 88%.Conclusions: The NEWS-C was the most accurate scoring system among common EWS to identify patients with COVID-19 at risk for EDRF and need for IRS. The NEWS-C could be recommended as an early triage tool for patients with COVID-19.

Abstract Background Medical scoring systems are potentially useful to make optimal use of available resources. A variety of models have been developed for illness measurement and stratification of patients in Emergency Departments (EDs). This study was aimed to compare the predictive performance of the following six scoring systems: Simple Clinical Score (SCS), Worthing physiological Score (WPS), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Routine Laboratory Data (RLD) to predict in-hospital mortality. Methods A prospective single-center observational study was conducted from March 2016 to March 2017 in Edalatian ED in Emam Reza Hospital, located in the northeast of Iran. All variables needed to calculate the models were recorded at the time of admission and logistic regression was used to develop the models’ prediction probabilities. The Area Under the Curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR), Brier Score (BS), and calibration plots were used to assess the models’ performance. Internal validation was obtained by 1000 bootstrap samples. Pairwise comparison of AUC-ROC was based on the DeLong test. Results A total of 2205 patients participated in this study with a mean age of 61.8 ± 18.5 years. About 19% of the patients died in the hospital. Approximately 53% of the participants were male. The discrimination ability of SCS, WPS, RAPS, REMS, MEWS, and RLD methods were 0.714, 0.727, 0.661, 0.678, 0.698, and 0.656, respectively. Additionally, the AUC-PR of SCS, WPS, RAPS, REMS, EWS, and RLD were 0.39, 0.42, 0.35, 0.34, 0.36, and 0.33 respectively. Moreover, BS was 0.1459 for SCS, 0.1713 for WPS, 0.0908 for RAPS, 0.1044 for REMS, 0.1158 for MEWS, and 0.073 for RLD. Results of pairwise comparison which was performed for all models revealed that there was no significant difference between the SCS and WPS. The calibration plots demonstrated a relatively good concordance between the actual and predicted probability of non-survival for the SCS and WPS models. Conclusion Both SCS and WPS demonstrated fair discrimination and good calibration, which were superior to the other models. Further recalibration is however still required to improve the predictive performance of all available models and their use in clinical practice is still unwarranted.

Abstract This study assesses the performance of National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) in predicting emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN) patients’ need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A retrospective analysis was conducted at four training and research hospitals’ emergency departments (EDs) on all EPN adult patients from January 2007 to August 2017. Data extracted were used to calculate raw scores for five physiologic scoring systems. Mann-Whitney U tests and χ2 tests were done for numerical and categorical variables respectively to examine differences between characteristics of ICU and non-ICU patient populations. Predictability of ICU admission was evaluated with AUROC analysis. ICU patients had lower GCS scores, SpO2, platelet counts, and estimated glomerular filtration rate; and higher bands, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, and incidences of septic shock and nephrectomy. NEWS performed best, with 73.85% accuracy at optimal cut-off of 3. In this multicentre ED EPN series, we recommend using NEWS in early identification of critical EPN patients and advance planning for ICU admission. This would reduce delays in ICU transfer and ultimately improve patient outcomes.

The accuracy of an early warning score (EWS) in early identification of a patient’s condition can help healthcare workers to promptly and appropriately identify therapy for the patient; it is also used to determine which patients will go to the emergency room, and to monitor the patient’s condition while in the hospital. There are no comprehensive syntheses of the current prognostics accuracy of EWS screening in patients with COVID-19. This review aimed to identify published articles that described EWS accuracy and parameters used in EWS screening. A systematic search of four databases (Science Direct, Pubmed, Google Scholar, and Proquest) was conducted to identify articles describing prognostics accuracy of EWS screening in patients with COVID-19. The EWS, its parameter and its components were extracted and narratively synthesized to identify patterns and themes across the types of EWS. A total of 10 articles describing EWS systems were identified. It was found that the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), Standardized Early Warning Score (SEWS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) had accurate results ranging from 81-92% sensitivity, specificity of 78-84%, and accuracy of 90-96%. Finally, those EWS systems were shown to perform remarkably well in recognizing a patient’s clinical status at time of admission to the hospital and in determining the appropriate treatment. Keywords: accuracy, early warning score, COVID-19

BackgroundEmergency triage systems are used globally to prioritise care based on patients’ needs. These systems are commonly based on patient complaints, while the need for timely interventions on regular hospital wards is usually assessed with early warning scores (EWS). We aim to directly compare the ability of currently used triage scales and EWS scores to recognise patients in need of urgent care in the ED.MethodsWe performed a retrospective, single-centre study on all patients who presented to the ED of a Dutch Level 1 trauma centre, between 1 September 2018 and 24 June 2020 and for whom a Netherlands Triage System (NTS) score as well as a Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) was recorded. The performance of these scores was assessed using surrogate markers for true urgency and presented using bar charts, cross tables and a paired area under the curve (AUC).ResultsWe identified 12 317 unique patient visits where NTS and MEWS scores were documented during triage. A paired comparison of the AUC of these scores showed that the MEWS score had a significantly better AUC than the NTS for predicting the need for hospital admission (0.65 vs 0.60; p<0.001) or 30-day all-cause mortality (0.70 vs 0.60; p<0.001). Furthermore, when non-urgent MEWS scores co-occur with urgent NTS scores, the MEWS score seems to more accurately capture the urgency level that is warranted.ConclusionsThe results of this study suggest that EWSs could potentially be used to replace the current emergency triage systems.

Abstract Objectives This study aims to investigate whether combining scoring systems with monocyte distribution width (MDW) improves early sepsis detection in older adults in the emergency department (ED). Methods In this prospective observational study, we enrolled older adults aged ≥60 years who presented with confirmed infectious diseases to the ED. Three scoring systems—namely quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and biomarkers including MDW, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and C-reactive protein (CRP), were assessed in the ED. Logistic regression models were used to construct sepsis prediction models. Results After propensity score matching, we included 522 and 2088 patients with and without sepsis in our analysis from January 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021. NEWS ≥5 and MEWS ≥3 exhibited a moderate-to-high sensitivity and a low specificity for sepsis, whereas qSOFA score ≥2 demonstrated a low sensitivity and a high specificity. When combined with biomarkers, the NEWS-based, the MEWS-based, and the qSOFA-based models exhibited improved diagnostic accuracy for sepsis detection without CRP inclusion (c-statistics=0.842, 0.842, and 0.826, respectively). Of the three models, MEWS ≥3 with white blood cell (WBC) count ≥11 × 109/L, NLR ≥8, and MDW ≥20 demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy in all age subgroups (c-statistics=0.886, 0.825, and 0.822 in patients aged 60–74, 75–89, and 90–109 years, respectively). Conclusions Our novel scoring system combining MEWS with WBC, NLR, and MDW effectively detected sepsis in older adults.

Abstract The objective of this study was to directly compare the ability of commonly used early warning scores (EWS) for early identification and prediction of sepsis in the general ward setting. For general ward patients at a large, academic medical center between early-2012 and mid-2018, common EWS and patient acuity scoring systems were calculated from electronic health records (EHR) data for patients that both met and did not meet Sepsis-3 criteria. For identification of sepsis at index time, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS 2) had the highest performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.803 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.795–0.811], area under the precision recall curves: 0.130 [95% CI: 0.121–0.140]) followed NEWS, Modified Early Warning Score, and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA). Using validated thresholds, NEWS 2 also had the highest recall (0.758 [95% CI: 0.736–0.778]) but qSOFA had the highest specificity (0.950 [95% CI: 0.948–0.952]), positive predictive value (0.184 [95% CI: 0.169–0.198]), and F1 score (0.236 [95% CI: 0.220–0.253]). While NEWS 2 outperformed all other compared EWS and patient acuity scores, due to the low prevalence of sepsis, all scoring systems were prone to false positives (low positive predictive value without drastic sacrifices in sensitivity), thus leaving room for more computationally advanced approaches.

BACKGROUND Modified early warning score (MEWS) is a scoring system being used in hospitals for the identification of patients who may deteriorate into medical emergencies or cardiac arrest. However, the mortality benefit of MEWS hasn’t been established. Also, there is limited data about the experience of MEWS being implemented in low-income countries. Hence, we conducted a before-after prospective observational study to evaluate the impact on ICU mortality post-introduction of the MEWS chart. METHODS MEWS before-after study is a single-centre prospective observational study in a tertiary university hospital conducted in the ICU at Kasturba Hospital, Manipal University, India. We trained ward nurses on MEWS and introduced the MEWS chart and compared the change in outcomes from two months prior (i.e. February-March 2018) to the subsequent two months (i.e. April-May 2018). The primary outcome measured was the ICU mortality between the samples. Our secondary outcomes were the length of stay (LOS) and hospital mortality. Student t-test was used to estimate the total sample size and we used the chi-square test for statistical analyses. RESULTS We enrolled 161 patients into each group and the patient demographics between groups did not show any statistically significant difference. The ICU mortality data did not show any statistically significant difference before the introduction of MEWS after using the chi-square test with a p-value of 0.33. There was no statistically significant difference in ICU LOS, ICU re-admission rates, hospital LOS, hospital mortality, bed occupancy rates, or incidence of CPR between the two periods. CONCLUSIONS Our study did not show a significant difference in the mortality after introduction of MEWS scoring charts to our wards. The introduction of critical care outreach services may improve the outcomes.

Sepsis screening in the Emergency Department (ED) is necessary for the rational management of patients. Multiple severity screening scores such as Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) are available. Though "Sepsis-3" recommends the use of the qSOFA score. This study seeks to validate each of these scores in a critical care setting and identify the score with the greatest predictive value for in hospital mortality. This comparative study included 188 patients determined to have sepsis. The information required for calculating SIRS, qSOFA, NEWS, and MEWS was extracted with careful history taking, patient assessment, and necessary investigations. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) for each scoring system were measured for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) mortality. qSOFA had the highest specificity (73.61%) and the lowest sensitivity (36.02%). SIRS and NEWS scores had the highest sensitivity (77.78%) while SIRS had the lowest specificity (23.88%). The NEWS score had a specificity of 41.79%. MEWS score had an intermediate sensitivity of 76.36% and specificity of 63.91%. The ability to predict ICU mortality was highest for MEWS≥5 score (AUC 0.76; 95 % CI 0.68-0.84) compared to NEWS≥5 (AUC 0.61; 95% CI 0.52-0.71), qSOFA≥2 (AUC 0.56; 95% CI 0.46-0.66), and SIRS≥2 (AUC 0.49; 95% CI 0.37-0.61). By comparing HSROC curves, the MEWS score showed higher overall prognostic accuracy than SIRS, qSOFA and NEWS. Among qSOFA, SIRS, NEWS, and MEWS, the MEWS score showed the highest overall prognostic accuracy. However, no scoring system showed both high sensitivity and specificity for predicting the accuracy of mortality in patients with sepsis.

ObjectiveTo explore the application value of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) combined with age and injury site scores in predicting the criticality of emergency trauma patients.MethodsThe traditional MEWS was modified by combining it with age and injury site scores to form a new MEWS combined scoring standard. The clinical data were collected from a total of 372 trauma patients from the emergency department of the Nantong First People's Hospital between June and December 2019. A retrospective analysis was conducted, and the patients were scored using the MEWS combined with age and injury site scores. The patients were grouped according to their prognoses and clinical outcomes. A statistical analysis was conducted based on the ranges of the combined scores, and the results of the combined scores of the different groups were compared.ResultsAmong the 372 patients, the average score was 3.68 ± 1.25 points in the survival group, 8.33 ± 2.24 points in the death within 24 h group, and 8.38 ± 1.51 points in the death within 30 days of hospitalization group, and the differences were statistically significant (p &lt; 0.05). The average score was 2.74 ± 0.69 points in the outpatient treatment group, 4.19 ± 0.72 points in the emergency stay group, 5.40 ± 0.70 points in the specialist inpatient group, 8.71 ± 2.31 points in the ICU group, and 7.82 ± 1.66 points in the specialist unplanned transfer to ICU group, with the differences between the groups being statistically significant (p &lt; 0.05). The average length of hospital stay for patients with a joint score within the range of 6–8 points was 10.86 ± 2.47 days, with a direct ICU admission rate of 22.00% and an unplanned ICU admission rate of 16.00%. Patients with a joint score &gt;8 points had an average length of hospital stay of 27.05 ± 4.85 days, with a direct ICU admission rate of 66.67% and an unplanned ICU admission rate of 33.33%.ConclusionAge and injury site are important high-risk indicators for trauma assessment, and using them in combination with the MEWS could improve the assessment of emergency patients with trauma, increasing the accuracy of pre-screening triage and reducing rescue time. Therefore, this joint scoring method might be worthy of clinical promotion and application.

Abstract Background The diagnostic and prognostic utility of various sepsis scores varied among different cohorts and settings. Methods A prospective cohort study in adult patients with sepsis at Siriraj Hospital (Bangkok, Thailand) was conducted during January to July 2019. The performance of sepsis assessments, including systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score, modified early warning score (MEWS), and national early warning score (NEWS), for sepsis detection and mortality prediction were compared with agreement between 2 infectious disease (ID) specialists to determine their sepsis and septic shock status as the reference standard. Results Among the 470 subjects included in this study, 206 patients (43.8%) were determined by 2 ID specialists to have sepsis. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome ≥2, qSOFA ≥2, and NEWS ≥5 yielded the highest sensitivity (93.2%), specificity (81.3%), and accuracy (72.6%), respectively, for detecting sepsis. The SIRS ≥2 had the highest sensitivity (97.8%), whereas qSOFA ≥2 had the highest specificity (61%) and accuracy (69.7%) for predicting mortality among sepsis patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed MEWS to have the highest discriminatory power for sepsis detection (area under the ROC curve [AUROC], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74–0.83), whereas SOFA had the highest discriminatory power for predicting hospital mortality (AUROC, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.69–0.79). Conclusions The NEWS ≥5 and qSOFA ≥2 were the most accurate scoring systems for sepsis detection and mortality prediction, respectively. Each scoring system is useful for different specific purposes relative to early detection and mortality prediction in sepsis patients.

Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the predictive power of three different Sepsis Scoring Systems (SSSs), namely maternity Systematic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (mSIRS), quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Modified Early Warning System (MEWS) in identifying sepsis by comparing them with positive culture. This study also sought to evaluate compliance with using the Sepsis Six Care Bundle (SSCB) operated in an individual health board. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 3 maternity hospitals of a single Scottish health board that admitted 2690 pregnancies in a 12 weeks period in 2016. Data for study was obtained from medical notes, handheld and electronic health records for women who were prescribed antibiotics with a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of sepsis. Data on clinical parameters was used to classify women according to mSIRS, qSOFA and MEWS as having sepsis or not and this was compared to results of positive culture to obtain sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) along with their 95% confidence intervals. Data was also obtained on SSCB compliance. Results A total of 89 women were diagnosed with sepsis, of which 14 had missing data, leaving 75 for final analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and AUROC of mSIRS and MEWS were almost similar with AUROC of both being around 50%. Only 33 (37.1%) had identifiable sepsis six sticker displayed on medical notes and only 2 (2.2%) had all elements of SSCB delivered within the recommended one-hour post-diagnosis period. Blood culture and full blood count with other lab tests had been performed for most women (97%) followed by intravenous antibiotics and fluids (93.9%). Conclusions mSIRS and MEWS were quite similar in detecting sepsis when compared to positive culture, with their ability to detect sepsis being close to chance. This underlines the need for creating a valid SSS with high sensitivity and specificity for clinical use in obstetric settings. Clinical use of SSCB was limited despite it being a health board policy, although there is considerable possibility of improvement following detailed audits and removal of barriers for implementing SSCB.