Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Modello di predizione del rischio'
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GERMINI, FEDERICO. "COPD EXACERBATIONS IN THE EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT: EPIDEMIOLOGY, RELATED COSTS, AND VALIDATION OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BAP-65." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/699516.
Full textAbstract part 1 Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) frequently cause patients with COPD to access the emergency department and have a negative impact on the course of the disease. The objectives of our study were: 1) describing the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, and the clinical management, of patients with AECOPD, when they present to the emergency department; and 2) estimating the costs related to the management of these patients. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in Italy, collecting data on 4,396 patients, from 34 centres. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 76,6 (10.6) years, and 61.2 % of them where males. More than 70 % of the patients had a moderate to very high comorbidity burden, and heart failure was present in 26.4 % of the cohort. The 64.6 % of patients were admitted to hospital wards, with a mean (SD) length of stay of 10.8 (9.8) days. The estimated cost per patient was 2617 €. Conclusions: Patients attending the ED for an AECOPD are old and present important comorbidities. The rate of admission is high, and costs are remarkable. Abstract part 2 Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) frequently require hospitalizations, may necessitate of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and are associated with a remarkable in-hospital mortality. The BAP-65 score is a risk assessment model (RAM) based on simple variables, that has been proposed for the prediction of these adverse outcomes in patients with AECOPD. If showed to be accurate, the BAP-65 RAM might be used to guide the patients management, in terms of destination and treatment. We conducted a retrospective, multicentre, chart-review study, on patients attending the ED for an AECOPD during 2014. The aim of the study was the validation of the BAP-65 RAM for the prediction of in-hospital death or use of IMV (composite primary outcome). We assessed the discrimination and the prognostic performance of the BAP-65 RAM. We enrolled 2908 patients from 20 centres across Italy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 76 (11) years, and 38% of patients were female. The composite outcome occurred in 5.3% of patients. The AUROC of BAP-65 for the composite outcome was 0.64 (95%CI 0.59-0.68). The sensitivity of BAP-65 score ≥ 4 to predict in-hospital mortality was 44% (95% CI 34%-55%), the specificity was 84% (95% CI 82%-85%), the positive predictive value was 9% (95% CI 6%-12%), and the negative predictive value was 98% (95% CI 97%-98%). Conclusions: In patients attending Italian EDs with an AECOPD, we found that the BAP-65 score did not have sufficient accuracy to stratify patients upon their risk of severe in-hospital outcomes. DOI of published article # 1: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2018.01.010 DOI of published article # 2: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2018.10.018.
ROVELLA, VALENTINA. "Ruolo del Polimorfismo Genetico della MTHFR nella predizione del rischio di patologie non trasmissibili." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2108/214459.
Full textDe, Castri Andrea. "Sistemi di supporto alle decisioni in ambito clinico: predizione del rischio "as a service"." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/14733/.
Full textSolda', Nicola <1992>. "Misurazione del rischio di credito: applicazione del modello LOGIT a controparti non quotate." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/15373.
Full textGiolli, Lorenzo <1968>. "Un modello VaR per la misura del rischio di credito nelle banche." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2007. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/212/1/Tesi_Giolli_07.pdf.
Full textGiolli, Lorenzo <1968>. "Un modello VaR per la misura del rischio di credito nelle banche." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2007. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/212/.
Full textCASTELLANO, SARA. "Sviluppo di un modello computazionale di analisi di espressione genica per la stratificazione del rischio in pazienti con mielofibrosi." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11380/1278340.
Full textPrimary myelofibrosis (PMF), together with polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET), belongs to the group of related hematologic cancers named classic Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). PV and ET can evolve to myelofibrosis giving rise to post-PV (PPV-MF) and post-ET (PET-MF) myelofibrosis, which are both defined as secondary myelofibrosis (SMF). Despite the differences, PMF and SMF patients are currently managed in the same way, and risk stratification is based mainly on clinical features and the presence of driver mutations. None of the existing models for MF (e.g. DIPSS, MIPSS70) integrates transcriptomic data. On the other hand, interest has grown in the last few years concerning the ability of gene expression profiles (GEPs) to provide valuable prognostic information. Several studies demonstrated that GEP can improve risk classification in other hematologic malignancies. Therefore, there is a need to better characterize the transcriptomic profile of myelofibrosis in order to add more robustness to the current scoring systems. The main scope of this project was to identify a molecular signature and to build a robust classification model able to distinguish “high risk” MF patients with inferior overall survival from “low risk” ones. We analyzed the gene expression profiles of granulocytes isolated from 114 patients with MF. Cox regression analysis led to the identification of a list of 832 survival-related transcripts characterizing patients who are at high risk for death. Nearest shrunken centroids, subsequent iterations, and k-fold cross-validation were used to build, optimize and validate a classification model, obtaining a final model based on 273 transcripts. Classification of the 114 samples of our dataset with this model resulted in 54 high-risk and 60 low-risk samples. High-risk patients displayed an inferior overall survival and leukemia-free survival. In addition, we observed significant enrichment, within the high-risk group, of clinical and molecular detrimental features included in contemporary prognostic models. Strikingly, several patients belonging to the low and intermediate-1 categories of existing prognostic scores were classified as high-risk with our model. These patients were deceased or leukemia transformed earlier than the prognostic class reference median survival. Moreover, our model showed good performance particularly in distinguishing high-risk and low-risk patients within DIPSS and MIPSS70 intermediate categories. It is noteworthy that intermediate-risk classes represent the most challenging patients’ categories, for whom determining the optimal therapeutic strategy is more difficult. Additionally, to assess if our model was able to improve the prognostic power of current scoring systems, we designed two new combined models by integrating information from our gene expression-based classification within two existing scores (DIPSS and MIPSS70). The Akaike information criterion (AIC) score was used to compare models for prediction of survival. It turned out that both our new combined models showed better AIC values than DIPSS and MIPSS70 alone. Overall, these results demonstrate that GEPs in MF patients correlate with their molecular and clinical features, particularly their survival. Thus suggesting that the evaluation of granulocytes’ gene expression profiles can improve prognostication, particularly with the identification of MF patients’ subgroups characterized by poor prognosis, allowing these patients to be directed towards the most appropriate therapeutic option. These results should be validated in an independent dataset to confirm their predictive power.
Dolcini, Carlotta. "Valutazione e gestione del rischio nelle filiere idro-potabili secondo il modello dei Water Safety Plan." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2022.
Find full textDi, Battista Marco <1979>. "Un modello per la gestione integrata del rischio operativo nel contesto universitario con un'applicazione del metodo di misurazione avanzato." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/2531.
Full textBaldassarre, Benedetta. "La prevenzione del rischio sismico nella pianificazione urbanistica. Un modello di valutazione della vulnerabilità per il Comune di Castelfranco Emilia." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021.
Find full textCollina, Alberto. "Rischio residuale e scenari di inondazione controllata nel comparto idraulico Secchia - Panaro del fiume Po." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2008. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/103/.
Full textTallevi, Andrea. "Modello muscoloscheletrico per la quantificazione del rischio di compiti ripetitivi: confronto tra indici da normativa e parametri biomeccanici." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021.
Find full textD'Ostilio, Debora. "Sviluppo di un programma per il calcolo del termine sorgente ai fini della valutazione del rischio." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019.
Find full textBARZANTI, MARCO. "Progetti di riforma delle garanzie finanziarie del settore assicurativo: valutazione del rischio finanziario in una compagnia ramo vita." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/129.
Full textNowadays, the financial guarantees system of insurance market is being interested by a Community reform process (Solvency II project). Even if the current hypothesis are far to be definitive, the present guidelines state that the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) related to Interest Rate Risk (IRR) has to be quantified assuming deterministic shocks to the yield curve. The aim of the thesis is to improve the assessment of SCR connected to IRR, calculating interest rates according to Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (cir) stochastic model. Simulations are developed on the asset liability equilibria of a theoretical life insurance company, in order to better appreciate the SCR algebra sensitivity to changes in CIR model parameters.
BARZANTI, MARCO. "Progetti di riforma delle garanzie finanziarie del settore assicurativo: valutazione del rischio finanziario in una compagnia ramo vita." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/129.
Full textNowadays, the financial guarantees system of insurance market is being interested by a Community reform process (Solvency II project). Even if the current hypothesis are far to be definitive, the present guidelines state that the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) related to Interest Rate Risk (IRR) has to be quantified assuming deterministic shocks to the yield curve. The aim of the thesis is to improve the assessment of SCR connected to IRR, calculating interest rates according to Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (cir) stochastic model. Simulations are developed on the asset liability equilibria of a theoretical life insurance company, in order to better appreciate the SCR algebra sensitivity to changes in CIR model parameters.
DI, SANDRO STEFANO. "SVILLUPPO DI UN MODELLO SPERIMENTALE PER LA VALUTAZIONE DEL RISCHIO PROGNOSTICO DI MORTE IN PAZIENTI CANDIDABILI A RESEZIONE EPATICA E TRAPIANTO DI FEGATO PER EPATOCARCINOMA." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Pavia, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1203298.
Full textAspromonte, Rossella. "Analisi di sensitività del modello multi-variato INSYDE per la stima dei danni da alluvione." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2018.
Find full textSimone, Sara. "Simulazione di un caso di rotta arginale in destra fluviale Reno e confronto dei risultati con il modello d’intervento del sistema di Protezione Civile Emilia Romagna." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2022. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/25830/.
Full textBracaloni, Amedeo. "Analisi del rischio idraulico in ambiente urbano: il caso del torrente Ravone a Bologna." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2016. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/10107/.
Full textFACCIA, ALESSIO. "Analisi dei dati RICA finalizzati all'approfondimento del tema della gestione del rischio in agricoltura. Misurazione delle performance finanziarie e patrimoniali delle aziende agrarie e relativa definizione di un modello di rating." Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/242051.
Full textThis study has determined a rating algorithm (weighted ratio) to assess the creditworthiness of farms based on a single source of information: the RICA data set. This source was chosen for the following reasons: • ease of use; • reliability of the data contained therein; • significant depth of data sets available (6 years of data). The variables used in the calculations of the rating algorithm proposed have some substantial differences from the two methods used in previous similar studies in the agricultural sector (Moody's ISMEA results of Altman and EM). The weighted ratio is determined as follows: Q = (15% * A) + (30% * B) + (25% * C) + (30% * D) with: A: Sup_TOT. B: Cap_FOND_TOT / Sup_TOT. C: Inv_FOND_NEW / Cap_FOND_TOT. D: Cap_ESE_PROP / Sup_TOT. The ratio can vary between a minimum of 0.75 and a maximum of 3. The probability of default associated with the different classes of rating is shown in the table below. The discreet nature of empirical evidence has shown a trend in "bell", where the Gaussian curve is shown in the frequency of companies concentrated mainly in the central values. The rating model is characterized by the exclusive use of quantitative variables as they are the only ones that incorporate the following features: objectivity of metering, presence in the archive RICA expression of strength, opportunities for development and intrinsic potential of the business system. Rather than focusing primarily on the potential risks that could cause a default, the association to a Probability of Default has been determined as an ambitious objective of creating a system of calculation guided by positive terms, ie of opportunities development potential inherent to the business system, based on available resources. The value of the creation of development opportunities and the intrinsic potential of the business system, establishing a clear reduction of risk of insolvency, has allowed an association of mainly indirect range of Probability of Default rating to each class.
BUCCI, ANDREA. "Un modello con variabili esogene per la matrice delle covarianze realizzate." Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/245577.
Full textFinancial volatility assumes a crucial role for risk management, asset pricing and portfolio management. Several studies found that volatility is higher when the level of economic activity is low. Thus, it seems interesting to examine the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in predicting volatility. This thesis aims to analyze the relationship between volatility and macroeconomic and financial determinants in the multivariate. The analysis is based on a procedure that involves the use of the realized variance as volatility measure, on the use of a matrix transformation, as the Cholesky decomposition, on the use of a linear and a non-linear model with the inclusion of macroeconomic and financial predictors. Chapter 1 explores the literature on the measures of volatility, particularly focusing on the realized variance and its extensions. In the second chapter, the thesis introduces two predictive models, a linear model and a non-linear model. The predictive role of the Cholesky decomposition and the use of predictors out-of-sample is evaluated with direct methods. The non-linear model is preceded by structural breaks and non-linearity tests. The models are estimated on two distinct data set. The third chapter presents an empirical application of the models introduced in the second chapter in a portfolio optimization and in risk management.
Falanga, Matteo. "Studio e simulazione della fluidodinamica atriale in fibrillazione atriale e in soggetti di controllo per la stratificazione del rischio tromboembolico." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021.
Find full textSERRA, PAOLO. "Analisi del rischio ed impatto ambientale della produzione di energia elettrica utilizzando sorgo da biomassa." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/10808.
Full textThis PhD thesis explores the use of sorghum (Sorghum bicolour (L.) Moench) as a dedicated bio-energy crop and highlights the benefits and risks associated with the use of early, medium-late and late sorghum genotypes to generate electricity by direct combustion in a biomass power plant. The dynamics and duration of the field drying process were simulated through the development of a specific model ("sorghum haying model"), which integrated with CropSyst, was used to perform a production risk assessment analysis estimating the biomass losses (respiration and mechanical), the haymaking failures and consequently to quantify the amount of dry baled biomass available for the power plant. In addition, the number of hectares needed to plant sorghum and the probability to exceed the threshold of 64000 Mg DM y-1, necessary to feed a biomass power plant in Oltrepò Pavese, were estimated. A complete Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study was carried out in order to evaluate the environmental impact of the three sorghum genotypes involved in this study. The LCA study takes into consideration the use of winter wheat straw as an additional biomass source to satisfy the total biomass power plant needs (94000 Mg DM y-1). Particular attention was given to the soil organic C change (ΔSOC) due to straw removal and haymaking failures soil incorporation. Early genotype showed the best biomass production and energy performance as well as the highest probability to exceed the threshold of 64000 Mg DM y-1. The LCA results did not show significant differences between genotypes although the lower environmental impact, has been achieved by the late genotype due to the highest amount of haymaking failures incorporated in the soil.
SERRA, PAOLO. "Analisi del rischio ed impatto ambientale della produzione di energia elettrica utilizzando sorgo da biomassa." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/10808.
Full textThis PhD thesis explores the use of sorghum (Sorghum bicolour (L.) Moench) as a dedicated bio-energy crop and highlights the benefits and risks associated with the use of early, medium-late and late sorghum genotypes to generate electricity by direct combustion in a biomass power plant. The dynamics and duration of the field drying process were simulated through the development of a specific model ("sorghum haying model"), which integrated with CropSyst, was used to perform a production risk assessment analysis estimating the biomass losses (respiration and mechanical), the haymaking failures and consequently to quantify the amount of dry baled biomass available for the power plant. In addition, the number of hectares needed to plant sorghum and the probability to exceed the threshold of 64000 Mg DM y-1, necessary to feed a biomass power plant in Oltrepò Pavese, were estimated. A complete Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study was carried out in order to evaluate the environmental impact of the three sorghum genotypes involved in this study. The LCA study takes into consideration the use of winter wheat straw as an additional biomass source to satisfy the total biomass power plant needs (94000 Mg DM y-1). Particular attention was given to the soil organic C change (ΔSOC) due to straw removal and haymaking failures soil incorporation. Early genotype showed the best biomass production and energy performance as well as the highest probability to exceed the threshold of 64000 Mg DM y-1. The LCA results did not show significant differences between genotypes although the lower environmental impact, has been achieved by the late genotype due to the highest amount of haymaking failures incorporated in the soil.
DI, NOIA ANTONIO. "Predizione del rischio di malattie lavoro-correlate attraverso analisi di clustering e ottimizzazione genetica." Doctoral thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/876068.
Full textThe study of this research deals with the health risk prediction problem in workplaces through computational intelligence techniques. The available dataset has been collected from the Italian Local Health Authority (ASL) as part of the Surveillance National System. The main aim of this work is the design of a software application that can be used by occupational physicians in monitoring workers, performing a risk assessment of contracting some particular occupational diseases. The proposed algorithms, based on clustering techniques, includes a genetic optimization in order to automatically determine the weights of the adopted distance measure between patterns and the number of clusters for the final classifier’s synthesis. In particular, we propose a novel approach, consisting in defining the overall classifier as an ensemble of class-specific ones, each trained to recognize patterns of risk conditions characterizing a single pathology. First results are encouraging and suggest interesting research tasks for further system development.
STRACQUALURSI, ALESSANDRO. "Un modello operativo di gestione delle risorse idriche nel Regenerative Design." Doctoral thesis, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1628266.
Full textIncreasingly scarce and less affordable, water is taking on the characteristics of a precious resource able to increase marked inequities. The high consumption due to civil use – in domestic and tertiary sectors – fuels the pressure on the environment, drawing a very high water-stress condition in most Italian cities. The issue of water resources management within buildings stands as a priority field of investigation, and as a central process in the transition to a sustainability model in construction, today recognizable as ‘Regenerative Design’. Water scarcity represents a pending risk derived from environmental, technological, economic, social and political interferences. It threatens consequences on the availability and affordability of resources. The research aims to interpret the sustainability principle in water resources management, through the understanding of the best practices for harvesting, collection, treatment and reuse – with a circular approach – to preserve water quantity and quality in buildings, as various case studies can attest. The work tries to extend the field of analysis to all the components that contribute, even indirectly, to water consumption along all phases of the building’s life cycle and to integrate the evaluation criteria through a set of Key performance indicators, instrumental to define the relevance of strategies and the affinity with the research objectives. The result is the proposal of a regenerative model with complementary approaches for buildings, capable of providing a support tool to address aware and functional design choices in preventing water scarcity risk.
PICCHI, CINZIA. "Valutazione e riduzione del rischio sismico delle costruzioni esistenti." Doctoral thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/944077.
Full textLupiano, Valeria, Gaetano Robustelli, Rocco Rongo, William Spataro, and Franco Russo. "Definizione di una metodologia per la creazione di mappe di rischio tramite l'utilizzo di un modello ad automi cellulari: applicazione ai flussi lavici del Monte Etna." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10955/1046.
Full textSPAGNUOLO, Franco Enzo. "Modello integrato di vulnerabilità delle infrastrutture stradali - VIS 4 Road Safety." Doctoral thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1383074.
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