Academic literature on the topic 'Modèle régional de climat à haute résolution'
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Journal articles on the topic "Modèle régional de climat à haute résolution"
Diallo, I., M. Camara, M. Sylla, and AT Gaye. "Représentation haute résolution du système de mousson ouest africain avec un modèle climatique régional." Journal des Sciences Pour l'Ingénieur 12, no. 1 (July 15, 2011). http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/jspi.v12i1.67978.
Full textFETTWEIS, Xavier, Bruno AMBROISE, Pierre-Marie DAVID, Nicolas GHILAIN, Patrice PAUL, and Cyril WUEST. "Current evolution (1960-2021) of the snow cover in the French Vosges massif with the help of the regional climate MAR model." Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège, 2023, 19–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.25518/0770-7576.7049.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Modèle régional de climat à haute résolution"
Beaumet, Julien. "Changement climatique en Antarctique : études à l'aide d'un modèle atmosphérique de circulation générale à haute résolution régionale." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018GREAU050/document.
Full textThe increase of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface mass balance due to rise in snowfall is the only expected negative contribution to sea-level rise in the course of the 21st century within the context of global warming induced by mankind. Dynamical downscaling of climate projections provided by coupled ocean-atmosphere models is the most commonly used method to assess the future evolution of the Antarctic climate. Nevertheless, large uncertainties remain in the application of this method, particularly because of large biases in coupled models for oceanic surface conditions and atmospheric large-scale circulation at Southern Hemisphere high latitudes.In the first part of this work, different bias-correction methods for oceanic surface conditions have been evaluated. The results have allowed to select a quantile-quantile method for sea surface temperature and an analog method for sea-ice concentration. Because of the strong sensitivity of Antarctic surface climate to the variations of sea-ice extents in the Southern Ocean, oceanic surface conditions provided by two coupled models, NorESM1-M and MIROC-ESM, showing clearly different trends (respectively -14 and -45%) on winter sea-ice extent have been selected. Oceanic surface conditions of the ``business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5) coming from these two models have been corrected in order to force the global atmospheric model ARPEGE.In the following, ARPEGE has been used in a stretched-grid configuration, allowing to reach an horizontal resolution around 40 kilometers on Antarctica. For historical climate (1981-2010), the model was driven by observed oceanic surface conditions as well as by those from MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M historical simulation. For late 21st century (2071-2100), original and bias corrected oceanic conditions from the latter two model have been used. The evaluation for present climate has evidenced excellent ARPEGE skills for surface climate and surface mass balance as well as large remaining errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation even when using observed oceanic surface conditions. For future climate, the use of bias-corrected MIROC-ESM oceanic forcings has yielded an additionally significant increase in winter temperatures and in annual surface mass balance at the continent-scale.In the end, ARPEGE has been corrected at run-time using a climatology of tendency errors coming from an ARPEGE simulation driven by climate reanalyses. The application of this method for present climate has dramatically improved the modelling of the atmospheric circulation and antarctic surface climate. The application for the future suggests significant additional warming (~ 0.7 to +0.9 C) and increase in precipitation (~ +6 to +9 %) with respect to the scenarios realized without atmospheric bias correction. Driving regional climate models or ice dynamics model with corrected ARPEGE scenarios is to explored in regards of the potentially large-impacts on the Antarctic ice-sheet and its contribution to sea-level rise
Caillaud, Cecile. "Sensibilité climatique des systèmes précipitants intenses : approche par la modélisation climatique à très haute résolution sur le nord-ouest de la Méditerranée." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Toulouse, INPT, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023INPT0111.
Full textThe Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) that affect the northwestern Mediterranean every fall are high-impact weather events. The study of their evolution on climate scales is therefore of great importance and remains a challenge for the climate modelling community. For some years now, it has been possible to use kilometre-scale regional climate models (Convection- Permitting Regional Climate Models or CP-RCMs, 1-3 km) in which deep convection is explicitly simulated. These models make it possible to get closer to the spatio-temporal scales involved and open up new perspectives in terms of analysis. The aim of this thesis is to determine the response of northwestern Mediterranean HPEs to human-induced climate change, using this new generation of climate models combined with an object-oriented approach. The tracking of heavy precipitation systems is applied to observational datasets, to simulations carried out with the CNRM-AROME CP-RCM and to simulations of the first ensemble of CP-RCMs available as part of the international CORDEX FPS Convection programme over a common domain covering the north-western Mediterranean. The first part of this thesis is devoted to evaluating the performance of CP-RCMs in comparison with high-resolution reference observation data. The added value of CP-RCM compared with regional models with coarser resolution (12-15 km) is demonstrated for precipitation extremes, particularly at hourly time steps. The object-oriented approach also shows that, despite a few residual biases, CP-RCMs are capable of correctly representing the principal properties of heavy precipitation systems, both in terms of number and position over the entire domain, and in terms of duration, intensity, surface area, volume, speed and severity over the French Mediterranean, where observations enable these properties to be assessed in detail. The good performance of these models lends greater confidence to their future projections. The second part focuses on the future evolution of Mediterranean HPEs using the object-oriented approach applied to mid and end-of-century simulations of the CP-RCMs ensemble in scenario mode to study changes in the properties of heavy precipitation systems in a warmer climate. At the end of the century, and according to a scenario of high emissions, certain changes are found in most of the simulations and can be described as robust. For example, an increase in the frequency of fall heavy precipitation systems over a large part of the domain, particularly from central Italy to the northern Balkans, is accompanied by a doubling of the areas affected by these events. Over the French Mediterranean region, the models agree on an increase in the intensity, surface area and volume of precipitating systems. However, even with this new generation of models, significant uncertainties remain, particularly for changes in frequency over southeastern France, probably due to differences in the synoptic conditions imposed by the CP-RCMs driving models. Similarly, the ensemble projects a wide range of possible changes in the properties of systems, particularly for the most intense ones and even when standardised by the corresponding regional warming. While CP-RCMs are the appropriate modelling tools for studying precipitation extremes, efforts must be continued to produce larger, better constructed ensembles, probably supplemented by machine learning methods, in order to provide useful climate information at scales relevant to adaptation policies
Chevillard, Anne. "Etude à haute résolution du CO2 atmosphérique en Europe et en Sibérie : impact pour les bilans de carbone." Paris 6, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA066503.
Full textBoulard, Damien. "Capacité d'une chaine de modélisation hydroclimatique haute résolution à simuler des indices de déficit hydrique : application aux douglasaies et hêtraies de Bourgogne." Thesis, Dijon, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016DIJOL002/document.
Full textDuring the 2003 drought and heat wave event, douglas-fir and common beech stands in Burgundy have been heavily affected, and presented symptoms of dieback and mortality. This event seems to be the first occurrence of expected climatic changes in the near future and questions their sustainability in Burgundy since their climate vulnerability is mainly due to the amplitude and accumulated water constraints exercised during their growing cycle. In the context of climate change and in order to provide information to forest managers who partly rely on a mapping of the climatic constraints until the end of this century, this work explores the ability of a high resolution hydroclimatic modelling chain, coupling the regional climate model WRF to the daily lumped water balance model Biljou© in order to simulate soil water deficit indices for these two species. The first part of this paper analyzes the capacity of WRF model to simulate each surface atmospheric variable used as input for the water balance computation. The analysis of model's ability to simulate these variables is based on (i) a direct and comparative approach between WRF simulated data and observations recorded by the Météo-France stations network and SAFRAN reanalyses across the whole region, over stations and forest stands, (ii) on an indirect approach using the potential evapotranspiration and soil water deficit index calculated by Biljou©. Results show a significant improvement upon the ERA-Interim data for each variable and a strong ability to produce reliable data at high resolution. However, the WRF capability to estimate a realist potential evapotranspiration, combined to the the low correlation between the average annual soil water deficit and radial growth indexes, show that the WRF deficiencies in simulating water deficit are mainly attributable to its precipitation biases. The second part proposes to apply a statistical post-correction to the WRF precipitation data. Although this method significantly improves the spatial distribution of precipitation, their seasonal and interannual variability and precipitation amounts, post-corrected data do not produce a water deficit index sufficiently close to those ones estimated from observations or SAFRAN reanalysis. Two new simulations explicitly solving convective processes and using a spectral nudging have shown that this deficiency is mainly attributable to the inability of the correction method to solve timing differences of the transient climate variability simulated by WRF. This work showed that two types of climate modeling errors occurring independently, are major issues for impact studies: (i) the timing of precipitations events ; (ii) the statistical distribution of daily precipitation. Combined together, they control the number of days crossing the 40% threshold of relative extractable water and indirectly the soil water deficit index intensity
Djath, Bughsin'. "Etude de la dynamique océanique de la mer des Salomon : modélisation numérique à haute résolution." Phd thesis, Université de Grenoble, 2014. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01069989.
Full textPowers, Michael Jr. "Sensibilité de la précipitation à la résolution horizontale dans le modèle régional canadien du climat." Mémoire, 2011. http://www.archipel.uqam.ca/4336/1/M12194.pdf.
Full textVerville, Marc. "Comparaison et évaluation des techniques de modélisation régionale du climat avec le modèle GEM : aire limitée versus résolution variable." Mémoire, 2010. http://www.archipel.uqam.ca/3733/1/M11659.pdf.
Full textDi, Luca Alejandro. "A framework to study the potential benefits of using high-resolution regional climate model simulations." Thèse, 2011. http://www.archipel.uqam.ca/4384/1/D2240.pdf.
Full textSurcel, Dorina. "A general filter for stretched-grid models." Thèse, 2011. http://www.archipel.uqam.ca/4352/1/D2235.pdf.
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