Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Microsimulation'
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Szillat, Markus Theodor. "A low-level PRT microsimulation." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.340268.
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Brouwers, Lisa. "Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making." Doctoral thesis, Kista : Department of Computer and Systems Sciences [Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap], Stockholms University, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525.
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Kongmuang, Charatdao. "Modelling crime : a spatial microsimulation approach." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.434205.
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Borsari, Claudio. "Microsimulation of transportation systems - theory and applications." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2012. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/3711/.
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Jin, Jianhui. "A small area microsimulation model for water demand." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.507779.
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Odden, Colin. "Sibship in Low Fertility Settings: A Microsimulation Approach." The Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1357237238.
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Look, Horace Wai Fung. "Accident risk assessment using microsimulation for dynamic route guidance." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ58669.pdf.
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Mohammed, Basheer. "Operational analysis of high-occupancy vehicle lanes using microsimulation." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ62955.pdf.
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McCormick, Ashley Warren. "A dynamic microsimulation of Scotland's household composition, 2001-2035." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.569261.
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A full, dynamic microsimulation of Scotland's household composition from 2001 to 2035 is given in this thesis. When projecting populations forward through time this particular method can be a powerful tool in explaining such change(s). Within this project the most systematic dynamic microsimulation of Scotland's household composition is given to date. The simulation process has been completed in conjunction with the General Register Office for Scotland and complements their household projection .methodology. By offering a current and systematic analysis of Scotland's demography, the project gives a platform for further understanding to the key influences and components of change to Scotland's past, present and future population and household composition. Amongst these key influences especial empirical analytic focus is given to relationship formation and dissolution and migration within Scotland. Results from the dynamic microsimulation provide a set of strong indicators to the distribution of demographic change in Scotland until 2035. It is important to note that this project has built a platform for further research into Scotland's population and household composition, which is also elaborated at the closing point of this thesis.
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Lovelace, Robin. "The energy costs of commuting : a spatial microsimulation approach." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2014. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5027/.
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Commuting is a daily ritual for a large proportion of the world's population. It is important materially, consuming large amounts of time, money and natural resources. As with many routine activities travel to work is often taken for granted but its energy consumption is of particular interest due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and the inflexibility of the demand for commuting. This understudied area of knowledge, the energy costs of travel to work, forms the basis of the thesis. There is much research into commuting and transport energy use as separate fields, but they have rarely been combined in the same analysis, let alone at high levels of geographical resolution. The well-established field of spatial microsimulation offers tools for investigating commuting patterns in detail at local and individual levels, with major potential benefits for transport planning. For the first time this method is deployed to investigate variability in commuter energy use both between and within small administrative zones. The maps of commuter energy use presented in this thesis illustrate this variability at national, regional and local levels. Supporting previous research, the results suggest that a range of geographical factors influence energy use for travel. This has important policy implications: when high transport energy use in commuting is due to lack of jobs in the vicinity, for example, modal shift (e.g.~from cars to bicycles) on its own has a limited potential to reduce energy costs. Such insights are quantified using existing aggregate data. The main methodological contribution of this work, however, is to add individual-level factors to the analysis - creating the potential for policy makers to also assess the distributional impacts of their interventions and target specific types of commuters having high transport energy costs, rather than treat areas as homogeneous blocks. This potential is demonstrated with a case study of South Yorkshire, where commuting energy use is cross-tabulated by socio-economic variables and disaggregated over geographical space. The areas where commuting energy use is less evenly distributed across the population, for example in urban centres, are likely to benefit most from policies that target the specific groups. Areas where commuter energy use is more even, such as Stocksbridge (in Northwest Sheffield), will benefit from more universal policies. The thesis contributes to human knowledge new information about the energy costs of commuting, its variability at various levels and insight into the implications. New methods of generating and analysing individual-level data for the analysis of commuter energy use have also been developed. These are reproducible (see the GitHub repository https://github.com/Robinlovelace/thesis-reproducible for example code and data) and will be of interest to researchers and policy makers investigating the energy security, resource efficiency and potential welfare impacts of interventions in personal travel systems.
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Chen, Siyu S. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. "Calibrating activity-based travel demand model system via microsimulation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/123233.
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Thesis: S.M. in Transportation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2019Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 79-83).
This thesis addresses the problem of calibrating activity-based travel demand model systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model system's parameters. However, calibration of activity-based model systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider inter-dependency among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this thesis, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model systems and calibrating count based aggregate statistics like OD flows, mode shares, activity shares and so on. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expected aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function -that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. Finally, we show -through a real-world application- that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model systems.
by Siyu Chen.
S.M. in Transportation
S.M.inTransportation Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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Kelly, Simon John, and n/a. "Estimating the wealth of Australians: a new approach using microsimulation." University of Canberra. Business & Government, 2003. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20070130.111024.
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The distribution of economic wellbeing is generally regarded as one of the key performance
indicators of a society and economic wellbeing is strongly influenced by income, wealth and
consumption. Despite this, almost all studies of inequality in Australia have relied upon income
as the sole measure of economic wellbeing, due in large part to the ready availability of income
data. This thesis attempts to redress that deficiency.
This thesis provides an insight into an under-researched but vitally important topic � the
distribution of wealth. Specifically the research has three goals. The first is to provide estimates
of the level and distribution of wealth in Australia at the current time and the trends over the
past decade or two. The second aim is to provide projections of the future wealth distribution.
The final goal is to see if there are significant differences between the distribution of lifetime
wealth and the annual cross-sectional distribution of wealth.
The research uses a technique not previously used in Australia to estimate wealth in the future �
dynamic microsimulation. The microsimulation model used is based on a starting sample of
150,000 individuals and this large number allows a large range of experiences to be modelled,
while not having the high costs, years of commitment and other problems associated with
undertaking panel studies.
This thesis estimates that the average levels of wealth will increase significantly over the
40-year period from 2000 to 2040 but that wealth inequality will increase over the same period.
The reasons for the increases in wealth inequality appear to be due to changes in asset
ownership, particularly lower levels of home ownership; the ageing population; and increases in
inequality within age cohorts.
The research found that lifetime wealth inequality for a sub-group of Generation X differed
from the distribution based on annual data. The lifetime wealth inequality was significantly less
than the annual wealth inequality.
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Fiorio, Carlo V. "Microsimulation and analysis of income distribution : an application to Italy." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2004. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/2120/.
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The first chapters of the thesis put special emphasis on tax-benefit microsimulation models. The state of the art in the economic literature of tax-benefit microsimulation models is reviewed and discussed. Particular attention is paid to issues such as the reliability of estimation and the grossing-up of the sample. In order to analyze tax-benefit microsimulation, a new model is developed focusing on the case of Italy: it shares many features with other country-specific tax-benefit microsimulation models. The model, appropriately calibrated to population totals, is also used for an estimation of tax evasion via comparison with a number of different data sources. Non-parametric density estimation is used to improve the understanding of policy simulations and to analyze the effect of fiscal reform: an application to the 1998 Italian personal income taxation reform is provided. The first part concludes with an analysis of the reliability of microsimulation models, which has been addressed by few authors before. The analysis is undertaken using the bootstrap, which tends to show a better performance in finite sample than asymptotic approximations. The main result is that static microsimulation does not by itself make confidence intervals larger: on the contrary they can also make it smaller. To improve the reliability of microsimulation models the best way to proceed is to reduce the sampling error of the available data sets. In the remaining chapters the thesis analyzes how microsimulation models can be useful in understanding the causes of inequality trends. As a preliminary step, the review and discussion of the literature about the main methods for inequality decomposition is provided. Based on this, a combination of two recent microsimu-lation methods is proposed to analyze the trend of inequality in Italy in 1977-2000. It is found that analysis using traditional methods of inequality decomposition can be seriously misleading if the sample is not representative of the whole population in some of its dimensions, such as female labor force participation. Microsimulation techniques can overcome this problem and can account for the major factors that driving inequality. Finally, the thesis discusses the issue of inference with thick-tailed distributions, such as the Pareto distribution with infinite second moment, that is of special relevance to empirical analysis of income distribution. It is shown that inference based on the standard t-ratio statistic can induce a non negligible error in rejection probability. Some solutions are suggested with an application to Italian household income data.
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Qu, Xin Hua. "Health insurance reform in China : assessing policy impact using microsimulation." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.417244.
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Jones, P. M. "A spatial microsimulation analysis of health inequalities and health resilience." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2017. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/19283/.
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Health inequalities persist despite decades of effort to reduce them. Faced with a reduction in public spending, contraction of the welfare state, and rising inequality it is likely that health inequalities will increase for years to come. A better understanding of health resilience, which areas and individuals are resilient, and what factors might ‘protect’ their health outcomes might help develop policies to break down the link between disadvantage and health. This research contributes to the understanding of health resilience in the case study area of Doncaster, South Yorkshire. As a former mining town, Doncaster is exposed to significant economic disadvantage reflected in many settlements across the North East, North West, Midlands, and South Wales. Previous geographical research into health resilience has been limited either to small–area information with basic health outcomes, or more sophisticated measures of health outcomes but geographically aggregated to large regions. Using spatial microsimulation, I present the first estimate of health resilience at the small–area level using measures of health previously inaccessible to researchers. This is complemented by a systematic scoping literature review of measures hypothesised to affect health resilience. I simulate a broad range of these alongside clinical depression and income to explore a more comprehensive range of factors than have previously been possible. This includes small–area and individual–level factors, which are difficult to separate. I conclude by comparing geographical proximity of a number of health amenities to resilient and non–resilient areas in Doncaster, and by evaluating local and national policies such as Universal Credit and their likely effect on the residents of Doncaster and their resilience.
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Spadaro, Amedeo. "Microsimulation des reformes fiscales : trois essais dans une perspective europeenne." Paris, EHESS, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999EHESA044.
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Dans ce travail, apres avoir construit un modele de microsimulation a l'echelle europeenne, on analyse l'importance des reactions de comportements dans l'impact sur le bien-etre de systemes de redistribution alternatifs. Le cadre de l'analyse est la theorie de l'imposition optimale dans laquelle on remplace la distribution des taux de salaires avec celle des aptitudes. Cette derniere distributionest retrouvee a travers l'inversion du programme de maximisation de l'utilite de chaque menage. Cette methodologie a ete employee pour comparer des systemes redistributifs europeens avec l'objectif de definir une frontiere optimale dans l'espace equite-efficacite pour l'implementation des politiques de redistribution.
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Michaud, Darryl Joseph. "Driver Distraction in Microsimulation of a Mid-Block Pedestrian Crossing." Thesis, Portland State University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10830985.
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Traffic simulation has become an invaluable part of the traffic engineering toolbox. However, the majority of driver models are designed to recreate traffic performance based on interactions among vehicles. In keeping with this pursuit, most are fundamentally built to avoid collisions. This limits the applicability of using these models for addressing safety concerns, especially those regarding pedestrian safety performance. However, by explicitly including some of the sources of human error, these limitations can, in theory, be overcome. While much work has been done toward including these human factors in simulation platforms, one key aspect of human behavior has been largely ignored: driver distraction.
This work presents a novel approach to inclusion of driver distraction in a microsimulation or agent-based model. Distributions of distraction events and inter-distraction periods are derived from eye-glance data collected during naturalistic driving studies. The developed model of distraction is implemented – along with perception errors, visual obstructions, and driver reaction times – in a simulated mid-block pedestrian crossing.
The results of this simulation demonstrate that excluding any of these human factors from the implemented driver model significantly alters conflict rates observed in the simulation. This finding suggests that inclusion of human factors is important in any microsimulation platforms used to analyze pedestrian safety performance.
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Pacifico, Daniele <1982>. "Tax-benefit microsimulation models for the evaluation of public policies." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2587/1/Pacifico_Daniele_tesi.pdf.
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Pacifico, Daniele <1982>. "Tax-benefit microsimulation models for the evaluation of public policies." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2587/.
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Castiglione, Filippo. "Microsimulation of complex system dynamics automata models in biology and finance /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2001. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=961934522.
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Tydlacka, Jonathan Michael. "A microsimulation analysis of highway intersections near highway-railroad grade crossings." Thesis, Texas A&M University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/1040.
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The purpose of this thesis was to perform microsimulation analyses on intersections near Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings (HRGCs) to determine if controlling mean train speed and train speed variability would improve safety and reduce delays. This research focused on three specific areas. First, average vehicle delay was examined, and this delay was compared for seven specific train speed distributions, including existing conditions. Furthermore, each distribution was associated with train detectors that were placed at the distance the fastest train could travel during the given warning time. Second, pedestrian cutoffs were investigated. These cutoffs represented an occasion when the pedestrian phases were truncated or shortened due to railroad signal preemption. Finally, vehicle emissions were analyzed using a modal emissions model. A microscopic simulation model of the Wellborn Corridor in College Station, Texas was created using VISSIM. The model was run twenty times in each train speed distribution for each of three train lengths. Average vehicle delay was collected for three intersections, and delays were compared using the Pooled t-test with a 95% confidence interval. Comparisons were made between the distributions, and generally, distributions with higher mean train speeds were associated with lower average delay, and train length was not a significant factor. Unfortunately, pedestrian cutoffs were not specifically controlled in this project; therefore, no statistical conclusions can be made with respect to the pedestrian cutoff problem. However, example cases were devised to demonstrate how these cutoffs could be avoided. In addition, vehicle emissions were examined using the vehicle data from VISSIM as inputs for CMEM (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model). For individual vehicles, as power (defined as the product of velocity and acceleration) increased, emissions increased. When comparing emissions from different train speed distributions, few significant differences were found. However, a scenario with no train was tested, and it was shown to have significantly higher emissions than three of the distributions with trains. Ultimately, this thesis shows that average vehicle delay and vehicle emissions could be lowered by specific train speed distributions. Also, work could be done to investigate the pedestrian cutoff problem.
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Leksono, Catur Yudo, and Tina Andriyana. "Roundabout Microsimulation using SUMO : A Case Study in Idrottsparken RoundaboutNorrkӧping, Sweden." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Kommunikations- och transportsystem, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-79771.
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Idrottsparken roundabout in Norrkoping is located in the more dense part of the city.Congestion occurs in peak hours causing queue and extended travel time. This thesis aims to provide alternative model to reduce queue and travel time. Types ofobservation data are flow, length of queue, and travel time that are observed during peakhours in the morning and afternoon. Calibration process is done by minimising root meansquare error of queue, travel time, and combination both of them between observation andcalibrated model. SUMO version 0.14.0 is used to perform the microsimulation. There are two proposed alternatives, namely Scenario 1: the additional lane for right turnfrom East leg to North and from North leg to West and Scenario 2: restriction of heavy goodsvehicles passing Kungsgatan which is located in Northern leg of Idrottsparken roundaboutduring peak hours. For Scenario 1, the results from SUMO will be compared with AIMSUNin terms of queue and travel time. The result of microsimulation shows that parameters that have big influence in the calibrationprocess for SUMO are driver imperfection and driver’s reaction time, while for AIMSUN isdriver’s reaction time and maximum acceleration. From analysis found that the model of thecurrent situation at Idrottsparken can be represented by model simulation which usingcombination between root mean square error of queue and travel time in calibration andvalidation process. Moreover, scenario 2 is the best alternative for SUMO because itproduces the decrease of queue and travel time almost in all legs at morning and afternoonpeak hour without accompanied by increase significant value of them in the other legs. Thecomparison between SUMO and AIMSUN shows that, in general, the AIMSUN has higherchanges value in terms of queue and travel time due to the limited precision in SUMO forroundabout modelling.
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Salvini, Paul A. "The architectural design of ILUTE, an integrated dynamic microsimulation modeling framework." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape17/PQDD_0024/MQ34124.pdf.
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Lee, Jinwoo. "Microsimulation modeling and advancements of transit priority options at major arterials." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ62953.pdf.
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Harirforoush, Homayoun. "Evaluation of the LHOVRA O-function using the microsimulation tool VISSIM." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Kommunikations- och transportsystem, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-87757.
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The growth of serious injuries and fatalities resulting from traffic accidents at intersections is one of the main problems in urban areas. Signal control was proposed as an alternative intersection design on rural roads. There were many reasons behind this, the most outstanding of which was the traffic signals can be used as a cost effective tools for traffic management in urban areas. The LHOVRA technique was intended to improve safety and reduce lost time at signalized intersection along high speed roads. The LHOVRA technique is an isolated traffic control strategy in Sweden which is formed from different concepts. This thesis work is aimed to evaluate the LHOVRA technique with a focus on the O-function. Hence, two different scenarios, one with O-function and one without O-function were implemented in the micro traffic simulation software, VISSIM. VISSIM has been used to simulate the traffic situation of the Gamla Övägen – Albrektsvägen intersection by considering the LHOVRA scenario (with O-function) as well as traditional scenario (without O-function) of the intersection. Field measurements were used as input data for VISSIM simulation. The VISSIM simulation model was calibrated to find a close match between simulated and real data. Finally, a comparison of alternatives was carried out based on traffic performance and traffic safety measurements. The simulation experiment results gained by the comparisons were presented a higher time-to-collision value. The higher time-to-collision value the safer situation is. Both delays and travel time were reduced to primary road traffic.
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Sadek, Eran Sadek Said Md. "Modellng residential water demand in Leeds using microsimulation incorporating behavioural data." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.581978.
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With an increasing world population and changing lifestyles, there is a relentless demand for water including for domestic water supplies. In order to manage water demand better, the amount of water used for domestic purposes must be estimated. A number of methods exist such as the micro-components method, which is recommended by the UK Environment Agency. Microsimulation of synthetic households is also used for demand estimation, which is an area of research that has a tradition in the School of Geography, University of Leeds. This research project follows in this tradition but extends the work by adding a behavioural component through information collected via a survey. Microsimulation is used to create a synthetic household population for the city of Leeds, which is the study area for this research. Using a Domestic Consumption Monitor (DCM) from Yorkshire Water, which contains the water consumption of a sample of households, water use is matched to the synthetic population to produce baseline demand for the city, which equates to 106 million litres per day or 148 litres per person per day, which approximates the UK average. The research then involved designing and administering a behavioural survey, which was informed by a review of other surveys that have been undertaken in the UK. The survey of more than 1,000 individuals was found to contain a representative sample by housing type and metered versus non-metered houses when compared to Leeds and England. Moreover, the number of water ecologists and water utilitarians was also evenly distributed. The results of the survey showed a number of findings regarding water conservation behaviour and measures that might encourage conservation. For example, water efficient showerheads, water displacement devices in a cistern, installing a water butt, installing a dual/low flush toilet and not washing food and vegetables under a tap are all behaviours that people would adopt in the future. The survey was then used to calculate the likelihood or probability that households would adopt a particular water conservation behaviour, disaggregated by different demographic variables such as housing type, tenure, age and social economic group. These probabilities formed the basis of scenarios in which the water savings from a particular behaviour were applied to the synthetic household population to determine overall water savings by ward and for the city of Leeds as a whole. Scenarios involving a single behavioural change and multiple behaviours together were investigated. A sensitivity analysis was applied to these results to consider over-estimation in both the probabilities of likely adoption of a particular behaviour in the future and the amount of water that would be saved by adopting the behaviour. The results showed that the maximum possible savings under the most optimistic multi-behavioural scenario is 30%. Given a more realistic scenario of adoption of the three most likely behaviours from the survey, the maximum potential savings are on the order of 7%.
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Chopra, Hitesh. "Spatial microsimulation as an aid to marketing and commercial strategy analysis." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.433019.
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Lignon, Vincent. "Transitions familiales, professionnelles et investissements éducatifs : une analyse par microsimulation dynamique." Thesis, Paris 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA010001.
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Cette thèse propose une analyse de l'investissement éducatif au niveau individuel. Elle développe une perspective dynamique qui cherche à analyser les liens entre éducation et trajectoires sur le long terme. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons un modèle de microsimulation dynamique. La première partie de la thèse porte sur l'éducation initiale. Elle cherche à évaluer l'impact de la diversité des trajectoires sur l'hétérogénéité des gains monétaires associés à différents niveaux de diplôme. Nous y montrons tout d'abord que certains diplômés, en raison des trajectoires défavorables qu'ils connaissent sur le marché du travail, ont une probabilité non négligeable de ne pas valoriser financièrement leurs études. L'analyse des gains liés à l'éducation initiale est ensuite élargie aux comportements conjugaux des individus. En particulier, nous montrons que la prise en compte des revenus salariaux des conjoints réduit les inégalités entre les diplômés, et ce, malgré l'existence de phénomènes d'homogamie éducative. La seconde partie de la thèse est consacrée à la « formation continue » (FC) ou « postscolaire ». En tenant compte des facteurs familiaux et professionnels qui peuvent jouer sur l'accès à la FC, cette partie a pour objectif de mesurer le niveau des dépenses dont bénéficient les individus pour se former une fois leurs études initiales terminées. Les résultats mettent en lumière une forte hétérogénéité de ces dépenses et le rôle divergent des différents dispositifs de formation. Ils montrent également que les montants investis dans la formation postscolaire des individus demeurent faibles au regard de ceux engagés pour la formation initialeThis thesis provides an analysis of investment in education from an individual point of view. Using a microsimulation model, we develop a dynamic perspective that aims to take into account the long-term relationships between education and individual trajectories. The first part of the thesis focuses on initial education. Its objective is to assess the impact of the diversity of trajectories on the heterogeneity of education benefits. We first show that some graduates, because of their vulnerable position on the labour market, are exposed to negative return to initial education. Our analysis of initial education benefits is then extended to marital behaviour. We more particularly show that taking into account spouse's labour market income reduces inequality between individuals despite the existence of educational homogamy. The second part of the thesis deals with further education and training (FET). Considering family and professional factors that may affect access to FET, we measure the level of expenditure received by individuals to train throughout their career. The results point out the heterogeneity of these spending and indicate that investments in FET are low compared to those invested in initial education
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Charypar, David. "Efficient algorithms for the microsimulation of travel behavior in very large scenarios /." Zürich : ETH, 2008. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=18034.
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Painchaud, François. "La microsimulation dans les modèles intégrés de transports et d'utilisation des sols." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/mq33732.pdf.
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Bernhardsson, Anders. "OD-matrix calibration for a microsimulation modell - a Paramics implementation in Gothenburg." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-97834.
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The Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) has recently started to use the simulation tool Paramics for traffic planning. An important input to simulation models are travel demand data in the form of OD-matrices. At present OD-matrices are obtained from SAMPERS, which is a software for traffic predictions, but these data has shown to differ a lot from existing traffic counts. If modeled flows differ less from traffic counts the simulation results are trustworthier. A project that has been carried out is to build a model of the area around E6 and Rv45 north/north east of Gothenburg. The model will be used to simulate incidents and to test different traffic control scenarios in the area. The aim of this master thesis was to present an approach for OD-matrix calibration wit Paramics Estimator including tools for handling data used as input. The tools for handling data used as input have been implemented as programs written in Visual Basic. The most important function of the programs is to divide travel demand data and link flow observations into shorter periods and to write these data into files with the correct format. The implemented approach has further been used to calibrate OD-matrices for the Gothenburg model with Paramics Estimator. A comparison between a simulation of the calibrated OD-matrices and the original has been carried out to evaluate the result of the calibration for the Gothenburg model. The results suggest that it is possible to increase the match between measured and simulated flows by using the implemented approach. One purpose with the programs for handling input data was to make it possible to use them for other similar cases. This purpose has been achieved partly. It is possible to divide ODmatrices and link flow observations into shorter periods chosen by the user and to write these data to files with the correct format. Some of the functions are however only implemented for the periods that have been used for the Gothenburg model.Vägverket har börjat använda simuleringsverktyget Paramics som stöd i arbetet med trafikplanering. En viktig del av indata till simuleringsmodeller är data om reseefterfrågan som kan anges i form av OD-matriser. OD-matriser kommer för närvarande ofta ursprungligen från trafikprognosprogrammet SAMPERS men dessa data har visat sig avvika mycket från uppmätta trafikmängder. En bättre överensstämmelse mellan modellerade och uppmätta trafikflöden gör att simuleringsresultaten blir mer trovärdiga. Ett projekt som genomförts med Paramics är att bygga upp en modell av området kring E6 och Rv45 nord/nordost om Göteborg. Modellen är tänkt att användas för att simulera incidenter och bedöma scenarier för trafikstyrning i området. Syftet med detta examensarbete var att ta fram ett tillvägagångssätt för OD-matriskalibrering i Paramics Estimator som innehåller verktyg för att bearbeta indata. Verktygen för att bearbeta indata har implementerats genom program skrivna i Visual Basic. Programmens främsta funktion är att perioduppdela data om reseefterfrågan och observerade länkflöden till filer med rätt format. Vidare har det implementerade tillvägagångssättet använts för att genomföra en OD-matriskalibrering för den aktuella Göteborgsmodellen med Paramics Estimator. En jämförelse mellan en simulering av de kalibrerade OD-matriserna och en simulering av de ursprungliga OD-matriserna har genomförts för att utvärdera resultatet av ODmatriskalibreringen för Göteborgsmodellen. Resultaten tyder på att det är möjligt att förbättra överensstämmelsen mellan modellerade och observerade flöden genom att använda sig av det tillvägagångssätt som tagits fram. Ett av målen med arbetet var att verktygen för bearbetning av indata skulle gå att använda för andra liknande fall. Detta mål har delvis uppnåtts. Perioduppdelning av dygnsmatriser och observationer till filer på rätt format för Paramics modul för OD-matriskalibrering kan genomföras med fritt vald periodindelning. Vissa funktioner är dock endast implementerade för den periodindelning som använts för Göteborgsmodellen.
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Gounder, Neelesh. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Fiji: A Computable General Equilibrium - Microsimulation Analysis." Thesis, Griffith University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367969.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this thesis is to examine whether trade liberalization, in terms of complete tariff reductions, will contribute to poverty reduction in Fiji. Whilst poverty reduction is the ultimate goal of trade reforms, and if trade liberalization does promote growth, then will the poor benefit from this trade liberalization? Previous studies on trade liberalization on Fiji are based on partial equilibrium as well as general equilibrium analysis. These studies have shown that trade liberalization will have positive impacts on the Fijian economy. Trade liberalization is unlikely to produce equivalent results of its impact on poverty across households and regions. Thus even within a country or geographic regions, households and individuals are likely to be differently impacted. However, none of the existing studies focus on the impact of trade liberalization on poverty at the household level. This, according to my knowledge, is thus the first study using a computable general equilibrium combined with a microsimulation approach for analysing the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in Fiji. This research will therefore further our understanding of the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in a small island developing country. It will also fill the gap in the literature on Fiji which lacks the impact of macroeconomic policies such as the impact of trade liberalization on poverty.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Walker, Agnes Emilia, and Agnes Walker@anu edu au. "Modelling the links between socioeconomic status and health in Australia: a dynamic microsimulation approach." The Australian National University. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, 2005. http://thesis.anu.edu.au./public/adt-ANU20060127.120857.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis concerns the modelling of individuals health over the life course, within the framework set by the now substantial international literature on the relationship between socioeconomic status and health. The focus is on people with long term illnesses and related disabilities, on inequalities in health by socioeconomic status (SES) and on the impact of health on employment.¶
The main tool of analysis is a dynamic microsimulation model of the Australian population which tracks the demographic, socioeconomic and financial characteristics of individuals and their families over the life course. Its original form, developed at the National Centre for Socioeconomic Modelling, University of Canberra, is based on a one per cent representative sample of the Australian population (around 150,000 individuals), with a series of life course events simulated for individuals and their families up to 2050 - such as births, deaths, migration, taxes, education, labour force participation, earned income, wealth accumulation and government transfers. The model is written in the C programming language and was initially used on a UNIX system. The dramatic increases in the speed and memory size of PCs over the past five years has led to a PC version now being available.¶
Despite their relatively short existence and long development phases, dynamic microsimulation models are now used in many developed countries for example, the USA, UK, Canada, France, Sweden, Norway and Italy. In recognition of their ability to analyse distributional and financial issues in considerably greater depth than what is possible with traditional methods, their use by government for policy analysis is rapidly increasing.¶
In this thesis two new modules were added to the original Australian dynamic microsimulation model namely: a Health_SES module and a Health State Transitions module. The former makes the study of health inequalities across socioeconomic groups possible. The latter provides a link between health status and the ability of individuals to carry out every day activities as the severity of their ill-health increases with age. A major advantage of adding these new modules to an existing main model is that it allows much more comprehensive studies over the life courses of individuals than the alternative would allow that is the building of two stand-alone models developed exclusively for health-SES and health state transition types of applications.¶
The main data sources used to construct the two new modules were an extract from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfares Mortality database covering the 1995-97 period, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998 survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. The analysis of the mortality data was handled using EXCEL, and that of the much larger Disability survey unit record dataset - over 40,000 individuals and 100s of variables using the SAS programming language.¶
While most of the methodologies used in constructing the new modules are in line with what became the norm for dynamic microsimulation model development, the thesis contains several innovations. The main ones are: a quantitative assessment of the suitability of different types of SES indicators for studies of health inequalities; the modelling of the progression of peoples health from illness-free status to mild and severe disability; the development of a methodology for estimating health state transition probabilities from cross-sectional data (in the absence of longitudinal data); and the linking of health status to individuals ability to stay in the labour force.¶
As with most models, there are a number of limitations. These are discussed in the thesis, together with areas of possible future improvements.¶
The thesis also presents two novel and topical though at this stage illustrative applications of the enhanced dynamic microsimulation model. The first simulates the impact of a narrowing in health inequalities in Australia as health is lifted nationally to the level currently enjoyed by the most affluent 20% of the population. The findings are that, if such a policy change were implemented, close to half a million fewer Australians would be disabled, around 180,000 life years would be saved, health care costs would be around A$1 billion lower per year and the government could save close to A$700 million on the Disability Support Pension.¶
The second application quantifies the likely impacts of longer working lives in future, which may arise from changes such as: more favourable labour market conditions; government incentives to remain in the labour force longer (eg the lifting of the pension age); and general improvements in health. This application estimates the probability that Australians aged 65-70 would work more than 15 hours per week, had such changes eventuated. The decision to retire is modelled as a function of each individuals own health, socioeconomic status, age, sex and family composition. The impacts are simulated in a world in which current patterns of health by age, sex and SES remain unchanged over time the Base case; and a world replicating the narrower health inequalities scenario of the first application. Under the Base case an additional 450,000 persons aged 65-70 years were estimated to remain in the workforce - with the related earnings totalling up to $20 billion in 1998 ($35 billion in 2018) and savings by government on the age pension of around $2 billion ($4 billion in 2018). Under the narrower health inequalities scenario the numbers working, their earnings and the related savings on the age pension were estimated to be around 7% higher.
Much of the original research carried out for this thesis has appeared, or is yet to appear, in refereed publications.¶
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González, Ramírez Paola Patricia, and Perales Katherine Holguin. "Evaluación del comportamiento vehicular del estudio de factibilidad del proyecto “construcción del puente Santa Rosa, acceso, rotonda y paso a desnivel, Región Callao” empleando la microsimulación en vissim." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/652511.
Full textAbstract:
En la presente tesis se realizará el estudio de microsimulación de tráfico de la actual intersección de las avenidas Santa Rosa y Morales Duárez en donde se proyecta construir el nuevo acceso al Aeropuerto Internacional Jorge Chávez con la finalidad de estudiar el comportamiento vehicular de la intersección con una proyección al año 2032 y tomando en cuenta que la solución planteada en este proyecto es una rotonda y un paso a desnivel.
En el Capítulo 1 de este informe presenta la formulación del problema los objetivos y el planteamiento de la hipótesis para validar la investigación.
En el Capítulo 2 se encuentra todo lo referido al marco teórico requerido para el desarrollo de esta investigación, específicamente todo lo relacionado a la microsimulacion con software Vissim. Luego, en el Capítulo 3 se plantea la metodología para llevar a cabo la investigación en donde se establecen los pasos a seguir para lograr los objetivos planteados, desde la obtención de la información de campo hasta el modelamiento microscópico de intersección estudiada y posterior evaluación con los parámetros de eficiencia.
El Capítulo 4 expone los resultados obtenidos de la microsimulacion analizando el comportamiento operacional de los vehículos con la propuesta del ovalo y el paso a desnivel. Finalmente, respecto a los resultados se plantea una propuesta de mejora y se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones.This thesis study the traffic microsimulation of the current intersection of Santa Rosa and Morales Duárez avenues, where it is planned to build the new access to Jorge Chávez International Airport, in order to analize his vehicular behavior with projections of vehicle flow to 2032 taking on that there will build a roundabout and overpass. Chapter 1 of this report presents the formulation of the problem, the objectives and the approach of the hypothesis to validate the investigation. Chapter 2 contains everything related to the theoretical framework required for the development of this research, specifically everything related to microsimulation with Vissim software. Then, in Chapter 3, the methodology to carry out the research will be presented and the steps of the process to be followed to achieve the stated objectives are established, from obtaining field information from the field to the microscopic modeling of the intersection studied and subsequent evaluation with efficiency parameters. Chapter 4 presents the results obtained from the microsimulation with respect to the information entered. Finally, regarding the results, a proposal for improvement is presented and the conclusions and recommendations are presented.
Tesis
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Gutierrez, Nieto Jesús Juvencio, and Contreras Wiler James Taipe. "Propuesta para la ubicación de estaciones de bicicletas públicas mediante la metodología de Máxima Cobertura para la reducción de los tiempos de viajes en el distrito de San Borja - Lima." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/651947.
Full textAbstract:
La preocupación en la actualidad del transporte público nos obliga a fomentar la implementación de medios de transporte sostenibles y saludables. Por este motivo, se propone con esta investigación localizar adecuadamente las estaciones de bicicletas y de esta forma reducir los tiempos de viaje en bicicleta en el distrito de San Borja.
En el primer capítulo formularemos la realidad problemática, formulación del problema de transporte y algunos antecedentes de estudios similares en diferentes países con resultados positivos. También desarrollaremos los objetivos generales, objetivos específicos y las limitaciones de la investigación.
En el segundo capítulo se describirá el marco teórico de la metodología para la localización óptima de estaciones de bicicletas, los modelos de microsimulación y la propuesta de mejora. Asimismo, definiremos los tipos de modelo de tránsito, algunas consideraciones que serán necesarias para realizar los análisis de los resultados que se obtengan.
En el tercer capítulo describiremos la metodología que se utiliza desde la recolección de datos para la metodología de máxima cobertura y el modelo de microsimulación debidamente calibrado y validado. También, se detallará la aplicación de la metodología de máxima cobertura (ArcGIS) y la construcción del modelo de simulación en el software VISSIM.
En el cuarto capítulo se presentan el análisis de las estaciones utilizando el modelo de máxima cobertura, localización de las estaciones optimas, la reducción de viajes del estado actual y el de los escenarios propuestos y por último los resultados de la comparación.
En el último capítulo se encontrarán las conclusiones y recomendaciones a las que se llegaron respondiendo así el objetivo general de la presente tesis.The current public transport concern forces us to encourage the implementation of sustainable and healthy means of transport. For this reason, it is proposed with this research to properly locate the bicycle stations and thus reduce the travel times by bicycle in the district of San Borja. In the first chapter we will formulate the problematic reality, formulation of the transport problem and some background of similar studies in different countries with positive results. We will also develop the general objectives, specific objectives and limitations of the investigation. In the second chapter, the theoretical framework of the methodology for the optimal location of bicycle stations, microsimulation models and the proposal for improvement will be described. Likewise, we will define the types of traffic model, some considerations that will be necessary to perform the analysis of the results obtained. In the third chapter we will describe the methodology used since the data collection for the maximum coverage methodology and the microsimulation model duly calibrated and validated. Also, the application of the maximum coverage methodology (ArcGIS) and the construction of the simulation model in the VISSIM software will be detailed. In the fourth chapter the analysis of the stations is presented using the maximum coverage model, location of the optimal stations, the reduction of trips of the current state and that of the proposed scenarios and finally the results of the comparison. In the last chapter you will find the conclusions and recommendations that were reached in response to the general objective of this thesis.
Tesis
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Lenormand, Maxime. "Initialize and Calibrate a Dynamic Stochastic Microsimulation Model: Application to the SimVillages Model." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00764929.
Full textAbstract:
Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l'exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d'une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d'étude, de carrière, d'union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants: * un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d'un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l'emploi. Cette population synthétique est l'état initial du modèle. * un modèle permettant de simuler une table d'origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. * un modèle permettant d'estimer le nombre d'emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d'habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. * une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d'échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation.
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Kaplanoglou, Georgia. "Distributional and efficiency aspects of the Greek indirect tax system : a microsimulation analysis." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2000. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/251704.
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Stevenson, Christopher Eric, and Chris Stevenson@aihw gov au. "A microsimulation study of the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer." The Australian National University. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, 2001. http://thesis.anu.edu.au./public/adt-ANU20040611.162207.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis examines the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer in the context of an organised population screening programme. It uses microsimulation modelling to derive an optimally cost-effective screening protocol for various combinations of the available screening tests. ¶
First a mathematical model for the natural history of colorectal cancer is derived, based on analyses of Australian population and hospital-based cancer registries combined with data from published studies. Then a model for population based screening is derived based mainly on data from published screening studies, including the four major published randomised controlled trials of faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening. These two models are used to simulate the application of a screening programme to the Australian population. The simulations are applied to a period of 40 years following 1990 (the studys base year), with both costs and benefits discounted back to the base year at an annual rate of 3%.¶
The models are applied to simulating a population screening programme based on FOBT with a colonoscopy follow up of positive tests. This simulation suggests that the optimal application of such a programme would be to offer annual screening to people aged 50 to 84 years. Such a programme would lead to a cumulative fall in years of life lost to colorectal cancer (YLL) of 28.5% at a cost per year of life saved (YLS) of $8,987. These costs and benefits are consistent with those arising from other currently funded health interventions. They are also consistent with the cost per YLS which Australian governments appear willing to pay for health interventions when justified on the basis of cost-effectiveness. The fall in colorectal cancer deaths from this screening programme should be first detectable by a national monitoring system after around three years of screening. However the full benefits from screening would not be realised before around 30 years of screening.¶
These simulations are based on the standard guaiac FOBT, but the results suggest that significant cost-effective gains could be made by using the newer immunochemical FOBT. Further cost-effect gains could be made by offering sigmoidoscopy every five years in addition to annual FOBT.¶
The models are then applied to simulating population screening programmes using colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy as primary screening tools. Offering colonoscopy every ten years to all people aged from 45 to 85 leads to an overall fall in cumulative YLL of 37.6%, at a cost of $15,585 per YLS. Offering sigmoidoscopy every three years to all people aged 40 to 85 leads to an overall fall in cumulative YLL of 29.1%, at a cost of $4,862 per YLS. Both of these cost and benefit results are also consistent with the cost per YLS which Australian governments appear willing to pay. The fall in deaths with colonoscopy screening would also be detectable after three years of screening but the fall with sigmoidoscopy screening would not be detectable until after six years of screening. Sigmoidoscopy would need around 35 years of screening to reach its potential gains while colonoscopy screening would not reach its full potential during the 40 year screening period.¶
Finally the models are applied to targeting people at higher risk of cancer. The results show that offering colonoscopy every five years to people at higher risk because of a family history of colorectal cancer is a cost-effective addition to the annual FOBT screening programme.¶
An earlier version of chapter two of this thesis has been published as
Stevenson CE 1995. Statistical models for cancer screening. Statistical Methods in Medical Research; 4: 1923.¶
An expanded version of chapter two, along with parts of chapter one, has been published as
Stevenson CE 1998. Models of screening. In: Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Armitage P, Colton T, eds. John Wiley and Sons Ltd, pp 39994022.
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Lenormand, Maxime. "Initialiser et calibrer un modèle de microsimulation dynamique stochastique : application au modèle SimVillages." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00822114.
Full textAbstract:
Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l'exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d'une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d'étude, de carrière, d'union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants : 1 / un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d'un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l'emploi. Cette population synthétique est l'état initial du modèle. 2 / un modèle permettant de simuler une table d'origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. 3 / un modèle permettant d'estimer le nombre d'emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d'habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. 4 / une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d'échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation.
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Papapanagos, Harry. "On the analysis of tax reform : a microsimulation tax-benefit model for Greece." Thesis, University of Essex, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.333725.
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Jonnalagadda, Nageswar Rao V. (Nageswar Rao Venkata). "A methodology for the design and evaluation of traffic control systems using microsimulation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38030.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1994.Includes bibliographical references (p. 167-170).
by Nageswar Rao V. Jonnalagadda.
M.S.
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Deetjen, Ulrike. "Internet use and health : a mixed methods analysis using spatial microsimulation and interviews." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:92b1d35c-1aed-435d-8daa-18b1cd9ccaa1.
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Internet use is considered a lever for empowering patients, levelling inequalities and reducing healthcare expenditure. However, with digital inclusion, health provision quality and health system efficiency high on the UK and EU policy agendas, we need to better understand the relationship between Internet use and health outcomes to assess potential benefits and adverse effects. This research addresses the question of how Internet use influences individuals' health service use and their perceived health in the context of England. Focusing on health information-seeking, it analyses variations across different kinds of users, mechanisms between Internet use and both health outcomes, and the role of individual and contextual factors in this relationship. To answer this question, this research uses a mixed methods approach. Quantitative data from the Oxford Internet Surveys (OxIS), the English census and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) was connected through spatial microsimulation based on output areas. Qualitative data was collected through semi-structured, face-to-face interviews, primarily with former OxIS participants from output areas in the quantitative strand. The quantitative data was revisited based on emerging interview themes. The results indicate that Internet use influences perceived health and health service use via various mechanisms based on the Internet's content, mediation and connection affordances. However, the boundaries between users and non-users are blurry and outcomes vary for different types of individuals, classified here as learners, pragmatists, sceptics, worriers, delegators and adigitals. Age, education, socioeconomic status, long-term health conditions, and geographic context influence Internet use and health outcomes separately, while the social context shapes their relationship too. These findings advance the theoretical understanding of Internet-based health outcomes, and provide practical implications for health professionals and policymakers with insights down to the local level. Moreover, this research demonstrates how novel insights for public wellbeing can be derived from qualitatively enriched secondary data in privacy-preserving and cost-effective ways.
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Kehoe, Nicholas Paul. "An Analysis of Traffic Behavior at Freeway Diverge Sections using Traffic Microsimulation Software." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/76810.
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Microscopic simulation traffic models are widely used by transportation researchers and practitioners to evaluate and plan for transportation facilities. The intent of these models is to estimate the second-by-second vehicle movements and interactions on such facilities. Due to constraints related to time, budget, and availability of data, these models are typically designed in such a way where the microscopic output is viewed on the macroscopic level. Inherently, this can leave uncertainty to how the model estimates the individual interactions between vehicles on the microscopic level. This thesis utilizes three microsimulation models, INTEGRATION, VISSIM, and CORSIM, to investigate the lane changing behavior as vehicles approach a freeway diverge area. The count of lane changes, lane use distribution, and visual inspection of the simulated lane changing behavior was compared to video data collected at two freeway diverge areas on U.S. 460 in the vicinity of Blacksburg, Virginia during both off-peak and peak periods. It was observed that all three models generally overestimated the number of lane changes near the diverge areas compared to field observations. By modifying the models' lane changing logic, the models were able to closely match field observations in one of the four scenarios. It was found that microsimulation models accurately estimated the lane use distribution. In addition, the INTEGRATION lane use distribution results were found to be more consistent when compared to observed lane use distribution than either VISSIM or CORSIM.Master of Science
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Pizzo, Lara. "The impact of economic changes on the italian social welfare: a microsimulation approach." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3426514.
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This thesis aims at measuring the Italian welfare variation occurred between 2007 and the period January 2008-April 2009. The work has been carried out, using “pseudo” unit values instead of price indices. In particular, the formers are a theoretical result developed by Lewbel (1989) and Atella (Atella, Menon and Perali, 2003) that reproduce the variability of cross sectional price variations using the variability of the budget shares together with the national and provincial price indices.
The study estimates a quadratic demand system demographically modified using a translating term. The parameters estimated have been used for different reasons: the first one is to check the relevance of the “pseudo” unit value specification. This test has been done comparing the results of the model, carried out using “pseudo” unit values, with the outcomes of a demand model implemented using only indices. In particular, the former, presenting compensated own price elasticities that are always negative, results more coherent with the economic theory than the second one that does not present this characteristic. The second reason underlying the estimation of the demand system is to point out the features of the Italian population, highlighting the differences among the Italian macroregions together with the demographic characteristics of the Italian households. Finally, the last basic motive of this estimation is the implementation of the microsimulation model that needs the parameters estimated by the demand system. In particular, this model evaluates the social welfare function, defined using the Jorgenson and Slesnick (1984, 1987, 1990) specification, in the year 2007 and then, using the microsimulation approach, it calculates the welfare during the period January 2008-April 2009. The difference between the level of the two welfare functions has been measured and splitted into an equity measure and an efficiency component. In conclusion, the analysis of these results does not show relevant variations of welfare between the periods considered.Questa tesi ha lo scopo di valutare la variazione di benessere che si è verificata tra l’anno 2007 ed il periodo gennaio 2008-aprile 2009. Nello svolgere questo lavoro sono stati usati, in sostituzione degli indici dei prezzi, i cosiddetti “pseudo unit values”. Questi “indici” che sono stati inizialmente definiti da Lewbel (1989) e poi migliorati da Atella (Atella, Menon and Perali, 2003) riproducono la variabilità dei prezzi usando le quote di spesa nonché gli indici dei prezzi nazionali e provinciali. Il lavoro stima un sistema di domanda quadratico in cui le variabili demografiche sono considerate usando una tecnica di traslazione. Il modello di domanda risulta fondamentale per diverse ragioni. Prima di tutto i parametri stimati vengono usati per valutare l’importanza dell’approccio definito da Lewbel (1989) ed Atella (Atella, Menon and Perali, 2003). Tale valutazione è stato fatta stimando due sistemi di domanda in cui il primo usa i “pseudo unit values” mentre il secondo usa gli indici dei prezzi. Dal confronto tra le elasticità dei prezzi si può notare che il primo sistema fornisce delle elasticità dirette sempre negative mentre l’altro no. Per tale ragione l’approccio di Lewbel ed Atella risulta più coerente con la teoria economica del secondo. I parametri del sistema, sono stati usati, inoltre, per valutare le differenze di spesa tra le diverse macroregioni italiane nonché le caratteristiche delle famiglie. L’ultima ragione che ha portato alla stima del sistema è legata al modello di microsimulazione. Questi parametri sono infatti fondamentali per l’implementazione del suddetto. Nel dettaglio, il modello di benessere valuta la funzione di benessere sociale, creata da Jorgenson and Slesnick (1984, 1987, 1990), nel 2007 e la confronta con il suo valore, ottenuto attraverso il modello di microsimulazione, del periodo compreso tra gennaio 2008 ed aprile 2009. Dalla differenza tra questi due valori della funzione è possibile valutare la variazione di benessere. Tale variazione viene inoltre suddivisa in una misura di efficienza ed una misura di equità. Concludendo, dall’analisi di questi dati non si registrano significative variazioni nel benessere della popolazione italiana durante i due periodi.
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ACUTO, Francesco. "Integrating vehicle specific power methodology and microsimulation in estimating emissions on urban roundabouts." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10447/519477.
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In this study pollutant emissions were estimated from VSP modal emission rates and the distribution of time spent in each VSP mode obtained from the speed profiles both gathered in the field and simulated in AIMSUN at a sample of urban roundabouts. The versatility of the micro-simulation model for a calibration aimed at improving accuracy of emissions estimates was tested in order to ensure that second-by-second trajectories experienced in the field by a test vehicle through the sampled roundabouts properly reflected the simulated speed profiles. The first results which the thesis will refer, confirmed the feasibility of the smart approach that integrates the use of field-observed and simulated data to estimate emissions at urban roundabouts. It is also revealed friendly in collecting information via smartphone and in the subsequent data analysis and provided suggestions for large-scale data collection through a digital community. Another goal of this research is to investigate about the environmental performance after a conversion of a traditional existing roundabout into a turbo-roundabout. This aspect has been considered a positive approach for a novel attitude in the performance evaluation of road networks to align the infrastructural design with the aim of sustainable and low-emission mobility. The main finding provided from this study is referred to the positive potential of a novel attitude in the conceptualization and performance evaluation of road units in order to align urban infrastructural projects with the worldwide shared long-term ambitions for a low-emission mobility.
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Sharif, Behnam. "Direct cost of osteoarthritis in Canada : an application of microsimulation modeling with uncertainty analysis." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/46614.
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Introduction: While OA is a debilitating disease with an immense economic burden on the Canadian society, there is a lack of understanding about OA’s direct costs and its future trend in Canada.
Objectives: The overall goal of this thesis is to illustrate the application of population-based disease microsimulation (PDMS) modeling in estimating the economic burden of a disease by performing the direct cost analyses for osteoarthritis (OA) using Population Health Microsimulation Model for OA (POHEM-OA). Specific objectives were: 1) To estimate the average direct costs of OA from 2003 to 2010 in Canada; 2) To estimate the future direct cost of OA from 2010 to 2031 in Canada; 3) to estimate the uncertainty around the prevalence and total cost of OA in future years.
Methods: I used administrative health data from the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, a survey of a random sample of BC residents diagnosed with OA (Ministry of Health of BC data), Canadian Institute of Health Information (CIHI) cost data and literature estimates to perform a bottom-up cost of illness (COI) study for OA. I then implemented the results of the COI study into POHEM-OA and constructed cost profiles for each individual. Finally, I developed a framework and adapted an ANOVA-based approach for performing uncertainty analysis (UA) for OA outcomes.
Results: I showed that the average cost increased from $735 to $811 between 2003 and 2010 (in 2010 $CAD). From 2010 to 2031, while the prevalence of OA increases from 13.8% to 18.6%, the total direct cost of OA is projected to increase from $2.9 billion (95% uncertainty interval (UI): $2.4-$3.1 billion), to $7.6 billion ($6.2-$9.1 billion), an almost 2.6-fold increase (in 2010 $CAD). From the highest to the lowest, the cost components that will constitute the total direct cost of OA in 2031 are hospitalization cost, outpatient services, drugs, and out-of-pocket cost categories.
Conclusions: By further developing a PDMS model of OA, I were able to project trends in the cost of OA and identify the key cost drivers, while predicting significant shifts in distribution of cost in the future.
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Harding, Ann. "Lifetime income distribution and redistribution in Australia : applications of a dynamic cohort microsimulation model." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1991. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1164/.
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The first part of the thesis describes the construction of Australia's first dynamic cohort microsimulation model. The model consists of a pseudo-cohort of 4000 males and females, who are aged from birth to death, with the processes of mortality, education, marriage, divorce, fertility, labour force participation, the receipt of earnings and other income, the receipt of social security and education transfers and the payment of income tax being simulated for every individual in the model for every year of life. The second part of the thesis describes some of the results which can be derived from the model. These include the differences in lifetime income by lifetime education and family status, the distribution of lifetime income, the difference between the lifetime and annual distributions of income, the lifetime and annual incidence of taxes and transfers, and the direction and extent of intra and interpersonal redistribution of income over the lifecycle due to government transfers and income taxes.
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Samandi, Fayezeh. "Assessing Different Freeway Interchange Design Impacts On Traffic Emission And Fuel Consumption Through Microsimulation." University of Dayton / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=dayton1620307882152966.
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Walker, Agnes Emilia. "Modelling the links between socioeconomic status and health in Australia : a dynamic microsimulation approach /." View thesis entry in Australian Digital Theses Program, 2005. http://thesis.anu.edu.au/public/adt-ANU20060127.120857/index.html.
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Yuwono, Thalyta Ernandya. "Individual Income Tax in Indonesia: Behavioral Response, Incidence, and the Distribution of Income Tax Burden." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2009. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/econ_diss/36.
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This dissertation estimates the relationship between tax-reporting decision and the change in marginal tax rates, relying on taxpayer's responses (standard labor supply response) as well as reported behavioral responses (compliance). There are still limited studies on elasticity estimates for developing countries. We utilize an applicable theoretical model by using standard labor supply model and summarize a tax avoidance model as the base of our elasticity estimation. The labor supply theoretical model suggests ambiguity of the labor supply decision and the tax avoidance model suggests that the responsiveness of taxpayers in the reporting decision differs across income groups. As previously stated, in developing countries, empirical evidence on reporting decision is still very limited. For our empirical analysis, we estimate reporting income elasticity for microsimulation purposes. We use this elasticity to estimate a dynamic behavior microsimulation model. The elasticity result shows that higher-income groups are more responsive and lower-income groups are less responsive to changes in tax policy. Our empirical analysis continues with estimating differences in taxpayers’ responses to the change in tax policy. We use a modified difference-in-difference model to analyze behavioral responses of taxpayers who are highly affected by the change in marginal tax rate compared to those who are least affected. The result shows that the treatment group, who experienced larger reductions on their marginal tax rate, reported more of their income relative to the control group, whose members are least affected by the change in marginal tax rate. The last part of our empirical analysis examines the distribution of income tax burden across different income groups and examines the government's tax collection from withholding income from some proposed scenarios. We proposed several scenarios and estimated the change in income tax burden compared to that under current income tax law. We also examined the government's revenue loss by calculating the tax differences under current and proposed scenarios. The overall microsimulation results suggest that there is a trade-off between government revenue loss and the distribution of income tax burden.