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Jin, Jianhui. "A small area microsimulation model for water demand." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.507779.
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Chen, Siyu S. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. "Calibrating activity-based travel demand model system via microsimulation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/123233.
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Thesis: S.M. in Transportation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2019Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 79-83).
This thesis addresses the problem of calibrating activity-based travel demand model systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model system's parameters. However, calibration of activity-based model systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider inter-dependency among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this thesis, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model systems and calibrating count based aggregate statistics like OD flows, mode shares, activity shares and so on. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expected aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function -that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. Finally, we show -through a real-world application- that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model systems.
by Siyu Chen.
S.M. in Transportation
S.M.inTransportation Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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Lenormand, Maxime. "Initialize and Calibrate a Dynamic Stochastic Microsimulation Model: Application to the SimVillages Model." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00764929.
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Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l'exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d'une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d'étude, de carrière, d'union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants: * un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d'un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l'emploi. Cette population synthétique est l'état initial du modèle. * un modèle permettant de simuler une table d'origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. * un modèle permettant d'estimer le nombre d'emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d'habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. * une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d'échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation.
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Papapanagos, Harry. "On the analysis of tax reform : a microsimulation tax-benefit model for Greece." Thesis, University of Essex, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.333725.
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Válková, Michaela. "Mikroskopický model dopravy ulic Veveří a Kounicova." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-371971.
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Diploma thesis deals with microscopic traffic model of the streets Veveří and Kounicova including adjacent road network. This model was created in software Aimsun based on maps, the results of the directional survey, traffic intensity at junctions and signal plans. Elaborated model of the current state location of interest was calibrated according to the traffic intensities on the entrance and exit roads. They have also been designed and created three possible variants of the solution streets Veveří and Kounicova. All variants were finally compared and evaluated.
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Harding, Ann. "Lifetime income distribution and redistribution in Australia : applications of a dynamic cohort microsimulation model." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1991. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1164/.
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The first part of the thesis describes the construction of Australia's first dynamic cohort microsimulation model. The model consists of a pseudo-cohort of 4000 males and females, who are aged from birth to death, with the processes of mortality, education, marriage, divorce, fertility, labour force participation, the receipt of earnings and other income, the receipt of social security and education transfers and the payment of income tax being simulated for every individual in the model for every year of life. The second part of the thesis describes some of the results which can be derived from the model. These include the differences in lifetime income by lifetime education and family status, the distribution of lifetime income, the difference between the lifetime and annual distributions of income, the lifetime and annual incidence of taxes and transfers, and the direction and extent of intra and interpersonal redistribution of income over the lifecycle due to government transfers and income taxes.
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Stevenson, Christopher Eric, and Chris Stevenson@aihw gov au. "A microsimulation study of the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer." The Australian National University. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, 2001. http://thesis.anu.edu.au./public/adt-ANU20040611.162207.
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This thesis examines the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer in the context of an organised population screening programme. It uses microsimulation modelling to derive an optimally cost-effective screening protocol for various combinations of the available screening tests. ¶
First a mathematical model for the natural history of colorectal cancer is derived, based on analyses of Australian population and hospital-based cancer registries combined with data from published studies. Then a model for population based screening is derived based mainly on data from published screening studies, including the four major published randomised controlled trials of faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening. These two models are used to simulate the application of a screening programme to the Australian population. The simulations are applied to a period of 40 years following 1990 (the studys base year), with both costs and benefits discounted back to the base year at an annual rate of 3%.¶
The models are applied to simulating a population screening programme based on FOBT with a colonoscopy follow up of positive tests. This simulation suggests that the optimal application of such a programme would be to offer annual screening to people aged 50 to 84 years. Such a programme would lead to a cumulative fall in years of life lost to colorectal cancer (YLL) of 28.5% at a cost per year of life saved (YLS) of $8,987. These costs and benefits are consistent with those arising from other currently funded health interventions. They are also consistent with the cost per YLS which Australian governments appear willing to pay for health interventions when justified on the basis of cost-effectiveness. The fall in colorectal cancer deaths from this screening programme should be first detectable by a national monitoring system after around three years of screening. However the full benefits from screening would not be realised before around 30 years of screening.¶
These simulations are based on the standard guaiac FOBT, but the results suggest that significant cost-effective gains could be made by using the newer immunochemical FOBT. Further cost-effect gains could be made by offering sigmoidoscopy every five years in addition to annual FOBT.¶
The models are then applied to simulating population screening programmes using colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy as primary screening tools. Offering colonoscopy every ten years to all people aged from 45 to 85 leads to an overall fall in cumulative YLL of 37.6%, at a cost of $15,585 per YLS. Offering sigmoidoscopy every three years to all people aged 40 to 85 leads to an overall fall in cumulative YLL of 29.1%, at a cost of $4,862 per YLS. Both of these cost and benefit results are also consistent with the cost per YLS which Australian governments appear willing to pay. The fall in deaths with colonoscopy screening would also be detectable after three years of screening but the fall with sigmoidoscopy screening would not be detectable until after six years of screening. Sigmoidoscopy would need around 35 years of screening to reach its potential gains while colonoscopy screening would not reach its full potential during the 40 year screening period.¶
Finally the models are applied to targeting people at higher risk of cancer. The results show that offering colonoscopy every five years to people at higher risk because of a family history of colorectal cancer is a cost-effective addition to the annual FOBT screening programme.¶
An earlier version of chapter two of this thesis has been published as
Stevenson CE 1995. Statistical models for cancer screening. Statistical Methods in Medical Research; 4: 1923.¶
An expanded version of chapter two, along with parts of chapter one, has been published as
Stevenson CE 1998. Models of screening. In: Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Armitage P, Colton T, eds. John Wiley and Sons Ltd, pp 39994022.
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Francois, Clément, Philippe Laramée, Nora Rahhali, Ylana Chalem, Samuel Aballéa, Aurélie Millier, Sébastien Bineau, Mondher Toumi, and Jürgen Rehm. "A Predictive Microsimulation Model to Estimate the Clinical Relevance of Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Dependence." Karger, 2014. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A71614.
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Background: Alcohol consumption is one of the most important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption (TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo. Methods: A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption. Results: For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events (inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year. The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients. Conclusion: The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.
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Wu, Mingqing Belinda. "A hybrid microsimulation model for a UK city population with dynamic, spatial and agent based features." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2012. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/3758/.
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This research aims to study and understand a complex social system through the development of an individual based hybrid model of the population of Leeds, UK. It attempts to demonstrate the importance of individual based modelling and simulation tools within the scope of demographic planning, as well as in application of a variety of substantive research and planning environments. The model adopts a hybrid modelling approach that combines the strength of two individual based modelling approaches: the first employs a dynamic spatial Micro-Simulation Model (MSM) and the second uses an Agent Based Model (ABM). This framework enables the modelling of a complex social system that is both theoretically and practically challenging. It attempts to provide a fuller picture of the population evolution through the simulation of discrete changes experienced by a large number of individuals within small areas and demonstrates heterogeneous characteristics in individuals and their behaviours reflecting not only individual demographic characteristics, but also interactions with each other and/or their local environment. This thesis describes the modelling method, system development, results alignment and model applications, as well as discussing the limitations and future potential of this model.
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Schofield, Deborah, and n/a. "Modelling health care expenditure : a new microsimulation approach to simulating the distributional impact of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme." University of Canberra. Information Sciences & Engineering, 1999. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20061107.171802.
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In this thesis, a microsimulation model was developed using methods which
were intended to overcome the main criticism of earlier models developed in
Australia - that their estimation of the distribution of health benefits1 across
income groups was not accurate. To determine whether the new model �
called the Person Level Model of Pharmaceutical Benefits (PLM-PB) � was
more accurate, two typical means-based models were also built to replicate the
most commonly used methods in Australia.
A comparison of the results of the three models revealed that while they
produced comparable results at the aggregate when compared with
administrative data, the PLM-PB was much more accurate in capturing
distributional differences by beneficiary and medication type. The PLM-PB
also indicated that, as anticipated, PBS benefits were more pro-poor than earlier
means-based models had suggested. The PLM-PB had another important
advantage in that the method also captured the variation in the use of
medication and thus the subsidy received within sub-populations.
As the PLM-PB was found to be more accurate than the means-based model, a
multivariate analysis of the distribution of PBS subsidy across a number of
socio-economic groups was undertaken as an example application of the model.
It was found that health status (defined by number of recent illnesses) and
concession card type were most important in explaining the amount of PBS
subsidy received. This indicates that the distribution of PBS expenditure meets
the policy objectives of assisting those most in need, whether need is defined as
poor health or low income.
1 Benefits refer to expenditure as transfers from government to individuals rather than the general health
benefits of using medication.
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Dinbabo, Mulugeta Fitamo. "Social welfare policies and child poverty in South Africa: a microsimulation model on the child support grant." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2011. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_9672_1319799611.
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The study assessed the extent of child poverty in South Africa using five different policy scenarios, and modelled the impact on poverty and inequalities of people living in households with children using the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index of poverty measurement, including poverty rate P0, (headcount index ratio), poverty gap index P1, (the depth of poverty), and the severity of poverty P2 (squared poverty gap index). Societal welfare inequalities have been measured using the Gini co-efficient. In general, the scenario analysis was based on the 2007 population baseline and 2008 government policy rules. The results of the study clearly indicate that there is a positive correlation between cash transfer (Child Support Grant) and a reduction in poverty and the inequalities of people living in households with children in South Africa. An increase in the Child Support Grant amount and the number of child beneficiaries, in modelling, produced a positive effect in addressing increasing child poverty and vulnerability. In addition, the research process identified four interrelated gaps that hinder the successful implementation of the social welfare policies underlying the Child Support Grant to reduce the poverty and inequality profile of people living in households with children in South Africa. First, inadequate understanding of the constitutional rights of the child exists. Second, failure to use proven best practice of institutional arrangements and implementation modalities was identified. Third, lack of political will for the championship of a universal basic income grant (UBIG) is present. Fourth, insufficient research, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and dissemination of best practices is done. Within the context of the abovementioned analysis, the study finally brings into focus general observations gained from the investigation and provides recommendations to policy makers and other stakeholders.
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Awawda, Sameera. "A roadmap to attain universal health coverage in developing countries : a microsimulation-based dynamic general equilibrium model." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2019. http://theses.univ-amu.fr.lama.univ-amu.fr/190925_AWAWDA_480wiwc30esmfbi673fafoz83y_TH.pdf.
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La couverture sanitaire universelle (CSU) est considérée comme un pilier des objectifs de développement durable 2015-2030. Cette thèse se propose d’éclairer le débat sur la soutenabilité financière de la CSU et son impact sur des variables micro- et macro-économiques à l’aide d’un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général calculable, associé à des techniques de microsimulation. Le premier chapitre présente le modèle théorique calibré pour refléter les principales caractéristiques des pays en développement. Les résultats montrent, pour deux modalités du financement de la CSU, comment peut varier le degré de protection financière contre les risques maladies. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous adaptons le modèle général au contexte particulier de la Palestine pour analyser l’effet de la mise en œuvre de la CSU sur le budget du gouvernent et le bien-être de la population. Les résultats démontrent qu’une expansion en parallèle de la CSU sur la population et les services de soins peut améliorer le bien-être des ménages. Néanmoins, dans des conditions d'espace budgétaire limité, cette expansion s’avère insoutenable à long-terme, appelant ainsi à un ajustement de la politique fiscale. Le troisième chapitre se consacre à l’évaluation des inégalités intergénérationnelles induites par le choix des politiques visant à assurer la pérennité de la CSU. Nous proposons une mesure permettant d’évaluer les transferts intergénérationnels liés au fardeau de la CSU. Les résultats montrent que, dans des conditions d'espace budgétaire limité, le choix des politiques peut impliquer un arbitrage entre la soutenabilité financière de la CSU et différents degrés d’inégalités intergénérationnellesUniversal Health Coverage (UHC) has received during the last decade a revived interest by policy-makers, international organizations and researchers worldwide. There has been hitherto no theoretical-empirical work that can enable to assess the feasibility of UHC and its potential effects at both micro- and macro-economic levels. This thesis presents an operationalizing theoretical framework that is capable of addressing the above issues using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and microsimulation technique. The first chapter presents the DSGE model that is calibrated to capture the salient features of an archetype developing economy. Results illustrate how the degree of financial-risk protection can vary with the financing-mix used to implement the UHC reform. The second chapter assesses the macro-fiscal conduciveness of UHC reforms and its impact on welfare and public finance in the particular context of Palestine. Results show that while UHC can enhance welfare, a parallel expansion of the breadth and width of coverage may not be feasible unless a policy adjustment is undertaken. The third chapter examines the potential impact of UHC reforms on intergenerational inequalities in view of fiscal sustainability. The question of who bears the burden of the UHC is addressed using an overlapping generation model, while a convenient measure to assess the social impact of UHC-financing strategies is proposed. Results show that under conditions of limited fiscal space, the choice between deferred-debt and current UHC-financing implies a trade-off between fiscal sustainability against intergenerational inequality, with which the policy-maker will have to confront
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Wurzer, Marcus, and Reinhold Hatzinger. "A Microanalytical Simulation Model to Predict the Long-Term Evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria: The Demographics Module." Austrian Statistical Society, 2009. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5633/1/277%2D971%2D1%2DSM.pdf.
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The well-known problems of decreasing birth rates and population
ageing represent a major challenge for the Austrian pension system. It is
expected that the group of pensioners will grow steadily in the future, while
the proportion of people that support them - the taxpayers - will shrink. In
this regard, microsimulation provides a valuable tool to identify the impact
of various policy measures. With microsimulation, it is not only possible
to predict cross-sectional data (e.g., the distribution of age groups in 2050),
but also to simulate lifecourses of people, providing longitudinal outcomes.
The demographics module is the first in a series of modules that are part of
a microsimulation prototype. This prototype is being developed in order to
predict the long-term evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria.
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Maoh, Hanna Francis. "Modeling firm demography in urban areas with an application to Hamilton, Ontario: towards an agent-based microsimulation model /." *McMaster only, 2005.
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Mendoza, Francis, Mayling Tong, Manuel Silvera, and Fernando Campos. "Microsimulation of Public Transport Stops for the Optimization of Waiting Times for Users Using the Social Force Model." Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/653780.
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El texto completo de este trabajo no está disponible en el Repositorio Académico UPC por restricciones de la casa editorial donde ha sido publicado.Cities in the world aim to ensure the mobility of people, through the implementation of efficient Integrated Transportation Systems (ITS). This aims to improve the transport of people, which guarantees that they can be mobilized safely and without delays in the terminals and bus stops of the public transport system. The present article proposes a design of public transport stops aimed at optimizing the waiting time of users when transferring from one bus to another. For the validity of the proposal, the social force model of the Vissim program was used, where the behavior of the users within the bus stops was reflected. The results showed that the waiting times in the calibrated and validated microsimulation model were optimized by approximately 20%, which generates an improvement in the efficiency of the public transport system.
Revisión por pares
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Miller, David Michael. "Developing a procedure to identify parameters for calibration of a vissim model." Thesis, Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/28135.
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Lenormand, Maxime. "Initialiser et calibrer un modèle de microsimulation dynamique stochastique : application au modèle SimVillages." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00822114.
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Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l'exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d'une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d'étude, de carrière, d'union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants : 1 / un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d'un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l'emploi. Cette population synthétique est l'état initial du modèle. 2 / un modèle permettant de simuler une table d'origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. 3 / un modèle permettant d'estimer le nombre d'emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d'habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. 4 / une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d'échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation.
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Felkl, Jan. "Dopravní model města Blanska." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-240461.
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In my diploma thesis, I applied IT model by Aimsun software on the traffic situation in the city of Blansko. I created my own model showing positives and negatives of planned bridge project across the river Svitava and the railroad corridor applying available information and documents regarding the project and my own data in this specific area. This overpass shall improve the traffic situation in the city of Blansko because mentioned bridge project shall be the second connection of two parts of the city of Blansko that is split by the river of Svitava. In this thesis, I apply the bridge project on the current traffic situation assuming that the bridge project will be implemented in 3 years. I deal with the situation in the city of Blansko with and without implementation of the bridge project.
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Gomo, Charity [Verfasser]. "Government social assistance transfers, income inequality and poverty in South Africa: a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Microsimulation (MS) Model / Charity Gomo." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1077768036/34.
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Brouwers, Lisa. "Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making." Doctoral thesis, Kista : Department of Computer and Systems Sciences [Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap], Stockholms University, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525.
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Mlčková, Ivana. "Mikrosimulace dopravního proudu při liniovém řízení." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-240413.
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The main task of this thesis is to verify the line management of traffic. A microsimulation model of traffic was made in program for traffic simulation called Aimsun. The data from radar measuring have been processed and then put into the model. Some of parameters in model were adapted to meet the reality on the road. Finally, there have been suggested more suggestions in this model and the efficiency of the solutions was evaluated.
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Mendoza, Molina Elvis Rossel, and La Cruz Alvarado Erick Santiado De. "Propuesta de mejora en los niveles de servicio de una rotonda mediante la optimización de su capacidad a partir de cambios en los parámetros geométricos. aplicacion Óvalo Higuereta." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/657403.
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La presente investigación está orientada a mejorar los niveles de servicio de una rotonda mediante la optimización de su capacidad, a partir de cambios en los elementos de diseño geométrico. En ese sentido se realizó un análisis y evaluación de la rotonda “Higuereta”, la cual se encuentra ubicada en el distrito de Santiago de Surco, en la ciudad de Lima en Perú. Para ello, se realizó una recopilación de bases teóricas a nivel internacional para conocer los fundamentos del diseño geométrico.
Es así que, partiendo de un modelo matemático determinístico proveniente de Reino Unido, Kimber 1980, que asocia los parámetros geométricos con el flujo circulante y demuestra que cualquier cambio en un elemento de diseño geométrico es directamente proporcional a la capacidad, podemos concluir que existe mejoras en los niveles de servicio siempre que realicemos variaciones significativas en la geometría. En la presente investigación se evidenció mejoras de un nivel de servicio “F” hasta uno “D”.
Por otro lado, se modeló la rotonda a partir de un software de micro simulación, PTV Vissim 9, con el objetivo de poder reflejar mediante simulaciones el comportamiento real del tráfico antes y después de introducir cambios en los parámetros geométricos. Se concluyó que existe mejoras en los niveles de servicio por acceso, de un “D” a un “C. Finalmente, para tener la certeza que el modelo reflejó la realidad se calibró a través de ajustes en los parámetros de comportamiento del conductor y se validó a partir de un indicador estadístico.This research is aimed at improving the service levels of a roundabout by optimizing its capacity, based on changes in the geometric design elements. In this sense, an analysis and evaluation of the “Higuereta” roundabout was carried out, which is located in the district of Santiago de Surco, in the city of Lima in Peru. For this, a compilation of theoretical bases was carried out at an international level to know the fundamentals of geometric design. Thus, based on a deterministic mathematical model from the United Kingdom, Kimber 1980, which associates geometric parameters with circulating flow and shows that any change in a geometric design element is directly proportional to capacity, we can conclude that there are improvements. in service levels as long as we make significant variations in geometry. In the present investigation, improvements from a service level “F” to a “D” were evidenced. On the other hand, the roundabout was modeled from a micro simulation software, PTV Vissim 9, with the aim of being able to reflect through simulations the real traffic behavior before and after introducing changes in the geometric parameters. It was concluded that there are improvements in service levels per access, from a “D” to a “C. Finally, to be certain that the model reflected reality, it was calibrated through adjustments in the driver's behavior parameters and validated from a statistical indicator.
Tesis
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Pacifico, Daniele <1982>. "Tax-benefit microsimulation models for the evaluation of public policies." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2010. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/2587/.
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Castiglione, Filippo. "Microsimulation of complex system dynamics automata models in biology and finance /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2001. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=961934522.
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Nissan, Albania. "Evaluation of Variable Speed Limits : Empirical Evidence and Simulation Analysis of Stockholm’s Motorway Control System." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Trafik och Logistik, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13200.
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Variable Speed Limits (VSL) are often used to improve traffic conditions on congested motorways. VSL can be implemented as mandatory or advisory. The objective of the thesis isto study in detail the effectiveness of VSL. The focus is on both, design parameters and conditions under which VSL are most effective. The MCS system on the E4 motorway inStockholm is used as a case study. The evaluation was conducted using empirical methods (including aggregate data from microwave sensors and other sources, and disaggregate data from a mobile study), and microscopic traffic simulation. The empirical analysis is based on before and after VSL data, including evaluation of individual measures of performance, and multivariate analysis in the form of the fundamental diagram, and speed-density relationships. The results from the empirical study are mixed with an indication that driver behavior has a strong impact on the effectiveness of the system. The microscopic traffic simulation analysis included the development of a platform for testing VSL and more generally motorway control strategies. The simulation platform was calibrated and validated with the empirical data and includes in addition to VSL, and Automatic Incident Detection (AID) system, the ALINEA ramp metering algorithm. The test-platform allows the testing of different control strategies and various combinations of control strategies, under different scenarios and in a controlled environment. The results from the simulation study indicate that driver compliance is an important factor and VSL performance quickly deteriorates as compliance rate drops. Hence, VSL should be implemented as mandatory instead of advisory. In addition, mandatory VSL can be effective both, under incident and moderately congested conditions. A combined VSL and ramp metering strategy can be most effective in reducing travel time, improving traffic conditions on the motorway. Furthermore, the results indicate that such a strategy also has the least impact on the flows entering the motorway from the ramps.QC20100630
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Bernhardsson, Anders. "OD-matrix calibration for a microsimulation modell - a Paramics implementation in Gothenburg." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-97834.
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The Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) has recently started to use the simulation tool Paramics for traffic planning. An important input to simulation models are travel demand data in the form of OD-matrices. At present OD-matrices are obtained from SAMPERS, which is a software for traffic predictions, but these data has shown to differ a lot from existing traffic counts. If modeled flows differ less from traffic counts the simulation results are trustworthier. A project that has been carried out is to build a model of the area around E6 and Rv45 north/north east of Gothenburg. The model will be used to simulate incidents and to test different traffic control scenarios in the area. The aim of this master thesis was to present an approach for OD-matrix calibration wit Paramics Estimator including tools for handling data used as input. The tools for handling data used as input have been implemented as programs written in Visual Basic. The most important function of the programs is to divide travel demand data and link flow observations into shorter periods and to write these data into files with the correct format. The implemented approach has further been used to calibrate OD-matrices for the Gothenburg model with Paramics Estimator. A comparison between a simulation of the calibrated OD-matrices and the original has been carried out to evaluate the result of the calibration for the Gothenburg model. The results suggest that it is possible to increase the match between measured and simulated flows by using the implemented approach. One purpose with the programs for handling input data was to make it possible to use them for other similar cases. This purpose has been achieved partly. It is possible to divide ODmatrices and link flow observations into shorter periods chosen by the user and to write these data to files with the correct format. Some of the functions are however only implemented for the periods that have been used for the Gothenburg model.Vägverket har börjat använda simuleringsverktyget Paramics som stöd i arbetet med trafikplanering. En viktig del av indata till simuleringsmodeller är data om reseefterfrågan som kan anges i form av OD-matriser. OD-matriser kommer för närvarande ofta ursprungligen från trafikprognosprogrammet SAMPERS men dessa data har visat sig avvika mycket från uppmätta trafikmängder. En bättre överensstämmelse mellan modellerade och uppmätta trafikflöden gör att simuleringsresultaten blir mer trovärdiga. Ett projekt som genomförts med Paramics är att bygga upp en modell av området kring E6 och Rv45 nord/nordost om Göteborg. Modellen är tänkt att användas för att simulera incidenter och bedöma scenarier för trafikstyrning i området. Syftet med detta examensarbete var att ta fram ett tillvägagångssätt för OD-matriskalibrering i Paramics Estimator som innehåller verktyg för att bearbeta indata. Verktygen för att bearbeta indata har implementerats genom program skrivna i Visual Basic. Programmens främsta funktion är att perioduppdela data om reseefterfrågan och observerade länkflöden till filer med rätt format. Vidare har det implementerade tillvägagångssättet använts för att genomföra en OD-matriskalibrering för den aktuella Göteborgsmodellen med Paramics Estimator. En jämförelse mellan en simulering av de kalibrerade OD-matriserna och en simulering av de ursprungliga OD-matriserna har genomförts för att utvärdera resultatet av ODmatriskalibreringen för Göteborgsmodellen. Resultaten tyder på att det är möjligt att förbättra överensstämmelsen mellan modellerade och observerade flöden genom att använda sig av det tillvägagångssätt som tagits fram. Ett av målen med arbetet var att verktygen för bearbetning av indata skulle gå att använda för andra liknande fall. Detta mål har delvis uppnåtts. Perioduppdelning av dygnsmatriser och observationer till filer på rätt format för Paramics modul för OD-matriskalibrering kan genomföras med fritt vald periodindelning. Vissa funktioner är dock endast implementerade för den periodindelning som använts för Göteborgsmodellen.
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Michaud, Darryl Joseph. "Driver Distraction in Microsimulation of a Mid-Block Pedestrian Crossing." Thesis, Portland State University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10830985.
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Traffic simulation has become an invaluable part of the traffic engineering toolbox. However, the majority of driver models are designed to recreate traffic performance based on interactions among vehicles. In keeping with this pursuit, most are fundamentally built to avoid collisions. This limits the applicability of using these models for addressing safety concerns, especially those regarding pedestrian safety performance. However, by explicitly including some of the sources of human error, these limitations can, in theory, be overcome. While much work has been done toward including these human factors in simulation platforms, one key aspect of human behavior has been largely ignored: driver distraction.
This work presents a novel approach to inclusion of driver distraction in a microsimulation or agent-based model. Distributions of distraction events and inter-distraction periods are derived from eye-glance data collected during naturalistic driving studies. The developed model of distraction is implemented – along with perception errors, visual obstructions, and driver reaction times – in a simulated mid-block pedestrian crossing.
The results of this simulation demonstrate that excluding any of these human factors from the implemented driver model significantly alters conflict rates observed in the simulation. This finding suggests that inclusion of human factors is important in any microsimulation platforms used to analyze pedestrian safety performance.
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Kehoe, Nicholas Paul. "An Analysis of Traffic Behavior at Freeway Diverge Sections using Traffic Microsimulation Software." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/76810.
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Microscopic simulation traffic models are widely used by transportation researchers and practitioners to evaluate and plan for transportation facilities. The intent of these models is to estimate the second-by-second vehicle movements and interactions on such facilities. Due to constraints related to time, budget, and availability of data, these models are typically designed in such a way where the microscopic output is viewed on the macroscopic level. Inherently, this can leave uncertainty to how the model estimates the individual interactions between vehicles on the microscopic level. This thesis utilizes three microsimulation models, INTEGRATION, VISSIM, and CORSIM, to investigate the lane changing behavior as vehicles approach a freeway diverge area. The count of lane changes, lane use distribution, and visual inspection of the simulated lane changing behavior was compared to video data collected at two freeway diverge areas on U.S. 460 in the vicinity of Blacksburg, Virginia during both off-peak and peak periods. It was observed that all three models generally overestimated the number of lane changes near the diverge areas compared to field observations. By modifying the models' lane changing logic, the models were able to closely match field observations in one of the four scenarios. It was found that microsimulation models accurately estimated the lane use distribution. In addition, the INTEGRATION lane use distribution results were found to be more consistent when compared to observed lane use distribution than either VISSIM or CORSIM.Master of Science
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Essa, Mohamed. "Calibration and validation of traffic microsimulation models for safety evaluation using automated video-based conflict analysis." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/54854.
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Recently, there has been a growing interest in using microsimulation models for the safety assessment of road facilities by analyzing vehicle trajectories and estimating conflict indicators. Using microsimulation in safety studies can have several advantages. However, concerns have been raised about the ability of these models to realistically represent unsafe vehicle interactions and near misses and the need for a rigorous model calibration. The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between field-measured traffic conflicts and simulated traffic conflicts at signalized intersections. Automated video-based computer vision techniques were used to extract vehicle trajectories and identify field-measured rear-end conflicts. Conflict measures (e.g. time-to-collision (TTC)) and locations were determined and compared with simulated conflicts from the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) by analyzing the vehicles trajectories extracted from two microsimulation models: VISSIM and PARAMICS. To increase the correlation between simulated and field-measured conflicts, a two-step calibration procedure of the simulation models was proposed and validated. In the first calibration step, the simulation model was calibrated to ensure that the simulation gives reasonable results of average delay times. Then, in the second calibration step, a Genetic Algorithm procedure was used to calibrate the safety-related parameters in the simulation model. The correlation between simulated and field-measured conflicts was investigated at different thresholds of TTC. The results obtained from VISSIM and PARAMICS were compared. Furthermore, the transferability of the calibrated simulation models for safety analysis between different sites was investigated. As well, the spatial distributions of the field-measured and the simulated conflicts were compared through conflict heat maps. Overall, good correlation between field-measured and simulated conflicts was obtained after calibration for both models especially at higher TTC values. Also, the results showed that the simulation model parameters are generally transferable between different locations as the transferred parameters provided better correlation between simulated and field-measured conflicts than using the default parameters. The heat maps showed that there were major differences between field-measured and simulated conflicts spatial distribution for both simulation models. This indicates that despite the good correlation obtained, both PARAMICS and VISSIM do not capture the actual conflict occurrence mechanism.Applied Science, Faculty of
Civil Engineering, Department of
Graduate
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Marin, Flores Alvaro Manuel, and Quispe Robin Alejandro Enero. "Análisis del impacto vial producido por el establecimiento de un edificio multifamiliar de 20 pisos y 80 estacionamientos ubicado en la Avenida Arequipa utilizando el modelo de microsimulación de Wiedemann 74." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/652384.
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La presente tesis propone una solución a la congestión vehicular ocasionado por el establecimiento de un proyecto multifamiliar a través de propuestas de mejora en la infraestructura vial, la cual reducirá las demoras por control y optimizará los niveles de servicio por medio de los parámetros de diseño del modelo de microsimulación de Wiedemann 74.
En el primer capítulo contextualiza la problemática del tema de investigación, antecedentes de estudios, justificativa, hipótesis, objetivos y limitaciones de la investigación.
En el segundo capítulo se desarrolla el marco teórico que respalda los criterios con los que se desarrollará el modelo de microsimulación y la propuesta de mejora. Se define los tipos de modelos de tránsito, los fundamentos de la microsimulación y conceptos que serán importantes al momento de realizar el análisis de resultados.
El tercer capítulo describe la metodología que se utiliza desde la recolección de datos de campo hasta el modelo de microsimulación debidamente calibrado y validado. Además, se detalla la elaboración del modelo de microsimulación.
En el cuarto capítulo se presentan el análisis de resultados obtenidos en la situación actual, en la situación del proyecto a 5 años sin implementar las propuestas de mejora y luego, se presentan las medidas de mitigación a los impactos negativos, los cuales involucra el diseño de la infraestructura vial y reajuste en los ciclos semafóricos.
En el último capítulo se encontrarán las conclusiones y recomendaciones a las que se llegaron respondiendo así el objetivo general de la presente tesis.This thesis proposes a solution to vehicular congestion caused by the establishment of a multi-family project through proposals for improvement in road infrastructure, which will reduce delays in control and optimize service levels through the design parameters of the Wiedemann microsimulation model 74. In the first chapter, it contextualizes the problems of the research topic, study background, justification, hypotheses, objectives and limitations of the research. In the second chapter, the theoretical framework that supports the criteria with which the microsimulation model will be developed and the improvement proposal will be developed. It defines the types of traffic models, the fundamentals of microsimulation and concepts that will be important when performing the results analysis. The third chapter describes the methodology used from the field data collection to the properly calibrated and validated microsimulation model. In addition, the elaboration of the microsimulation model is detailed. In the fourth chapter, the analysis of results obtained in the current situation is presented, in the situation of the project 5 years without implementing the improvement proposals and then, the mitigation measures to the negative impacts are presented, which involves the design of road infrastructure and readjustment in traffic light cycles. In the last chapter you will find the conclusions and recommendations that were reached thus responding to the general objective of this thesis.
Tesis
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Estrades, Carmen. "Une analyse de l'impact de chocs extérieurs et de réformes de politique commerciale sur la pauvreté et l’inégalité en Uruguay." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40029/document.
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L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer différents chocs extérieurs et des réformes de politique commerciale sur une petite économie ouverte comme l'Uruguay, en mettant l’accent sur la compréhension des canaux de transmission des chocs vers la répartition des revenus et la pauvreté. Plus précisément, j'évalue deux chocs externes –la récente crise financière et une augmentation des prix alimentaires et pétroliers- et une réforme de politique commerciale: la négociation d'un accord de libre-échange entre le Mercosur et l'Union Européenne. Pour ce faire, j’applique différents modèles d'équilibre général (EGC): deux modèles statiques uni-pays et un modèle global dynamique, MIRAGE-HH, qui comprend une désagrégation des ménages. Les modèles EGC sont combinées avec des techniques de microsimulation: microsimulation non-paramétrique et méthode «micro-accounting». Comme les chocs extérieurs peuvent avoir un impact négatif sur la pauvreté en Uruguay, j’évalue aussi les options politiques visant à atténuer cet impact négatif. Les résultats montrent que les canaux de transmission des réformes de politique commerciale et des chocs extérieurs sont divers et complexes et ils peuvent avoir des effets opposés sur la pauvreté. Ils mettent également en évidence le fait que l'impact sur les différents groupes de population n'est pas uniforme. Dans certains cas, les chocs positifs sur l'économie peuvent encore nuire à des groupes de population. Dans la plupart des cas, les groupes affectés négativement sont les populations déjà vulnérables ayant peu de ressources pour faire face à ces chocs. Pour cette raison, il est important d'évaluer aussi des réponses politiques pour éviter cet impact négatif sur les pauvresThe aim of this dissertation is to evaluate different external shocks and trade policies on a small open economy such as Uruguay, making an emphasis in understanding the channels of transmission of the shocks to income distribution and poverty in the country. Specifically, I evaluate two external shocks –the recent financial crisis and an increase in food and oil prices- and one trade policy –the negotiation of a free trade agreement between MERCOSUR (conformed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the European Union. For doing so, I apply different general equilibrium models: two different static single country models and one global dynamic model, MIRAGE-HH, which includes household disaggregation. The CGE models are combined with microsimulation techniques: non-parametric microsimulations and micro-accounting methods. Results show that the channels of transmission of trade policies and external shocks are diverse and complex and they may have opposite effects on welfare and poverty. They also highlight the fact that the impact on different population groups is not even. In some cases, positive shocks on the economy may still harm population groups. In most cases,iiithey are the already vulnerable population who count with fewer resources to counteract negative shocks. For this reason, it is important to also evaluate policy responses to prevent this negative impact on the poor
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Vattø, Trine Engh [Verfasser]. "The Dynamics of Labor Supply Responses to Tax Changes : Interpretations and Comparisons of Results from Microsimulation Models and Panel Data Approaches / Trine Engh Vattø." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1037343093/34.
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COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.
Full textAbstract:
Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo.
La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme.
Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.
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Vásquez, Ramírez Diana Andrea, and Quispe Weber Jordy Castro. "Influencia de los parámetros del modelo de Fuerza Social en el análisis de capacidad en espacios públicos. Caso: pasillo de consulta externa del Hospital Rebagliati." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/653966.
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La microsimulación peatonal resulta incompatible con la realidad cuando no se considera la diversidad peatonal y sus necesidades. Asimismo, el comportamiento peatonal está relacionado con la capacidad de los espacios. Por ello, el estudio del desplazamiento peatonal ha recobrado importancia en la planificación del transporte. Cuando se desea modelar a los peatones es necesario caracterizarlos con el mayor detalle posible, sobre todo a aquellos que son más vulnerables, como las personas con alguna limitación de movilidad. Si se pudiera caracterizar a cada peatón individualmente, sería ideal, pero esto en grandes masas, sería casi imposible. Debido a ello, en este estudio se buscó clasificar a los peatones respecto a tres variables resaltantes: el espacio personal, la trayectoria y las velocidades. El caso de estudio fue el pasillo de consulta externa de un hospital, debido a su diversidad peatonal y a las condiciones del espacio. En este lugar, se establecieron seis grupos de peatones, para definir sus características propias y plasmarlas en la simulación de Viswalk, a través de cinco parámetros del modelo de Fuerza Social: Tau, Lambda Mean, Noise, A_soc_Mean y B_soc_isotropic. Como principal resultado, se lograron encontrar los valores de los cinco parámetros del modelo de Fuerza Social que cumplieran para la clasificación de peatones realizada. Después de validado el modelo, se calculó la capacidad adecuada para el espacio, el resultado fue de 102 personas, valor que resultó menor a la capacidad actual.Pedestrian microsimulation is incompatible with reality when the diversity of pedestrians and their different needs are not considered. Likewise, the behavior of pedestrians is related to the capacity of the spaces. Therefore, the study of pedestrian displacement has regained importance in transportation planning. When you want to model pedestrians it is necessary to characterize them in as much detail as possible, especially those who are most vulnerable, such as people with some mobility limitation. If each pedestrian could be characterized individually, it would be ideal, but this in large masses would be almost impossible. For this reason, this study sought to classify pedestrians with respect to three important variables: personal space, trajectory and speeds. The case study was the external consultation hall of a hospital, due to its pedestrian diversity and the conditions of the space. In this place, six groups of pedestrians were established, to define their own characteristics and project them into the Viswalk simulation, through five parameters of the Social Force model: Tau, Lambda Mean, Noise, A_soc_Mean y B_soc_isotropic. As the main result, it was possible to find the values of the five parameters of the Social Force model that complied with the pedestrian classification made. After validating the model, the adequate capacity for the space was calculated, the result was 102 people, a value that was lower than the current capacity.
Tesis
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PANSINI, ROSARIA VEGA. "Lo studio dell'impatto delle politiche sulla distribuzione del reddito in una prospettiva micro-macro. Il caso del Vietnam." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/228.
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Obiettivo di questo lavoro è studiare i fattori socio-economici responsabili del cambiamento nella distribuzione del reddito dovuto a un cambiamento nel contesto politico di riferimento, in Vietnam durante il periodo delle riforme. La metodologia adottata analizza i cambiamenti nella distribuzione del reddito sia a livello micro che a livello macro. A livello micro, l'analisi indaga sulle caratteristiche individuali e familiari da cui dipende il livello e la distribuzione della spesa. E' possibile inoltre valutare gli effetti diretti di cambiamenti nel quadro politico di riferimento. Il livello macro di analisi consente di individuare le caratteristiche strutturali della disuguaglianza nella distribuzione del reddito personale e di isolare anche gli effetti indiretti delle politiche. Gli strumenti analitici selezionati in questo studio sono un modello supply-driven, rappresentato da un modello di microsimulazione e un modello demand-driven, costituito dalla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale. In particolare, il modello di microsimulazione ha consentito la derivazione di una distribuzione controfattuale e la disaggregazione della variazione della disuguaglianza in Vietnam in: effetto di prezzo, effetto di una variazione della componente non osservata dei salari, effetto dovuto a cambiamenti nelle scelte occupazioni e effetti dovuti a cambiamenti nella popolazione. Utilizzando una nuova metodologia di scomposizione ad un livello microscopico dei moltiplicatori derivati dalla SAM, è stato possibile derivare e isolare tutti gli effetti diretti e indiretti di uno shock esogeno sulla distribuzione personale del reddito.The aim of this work is to investigate the socio-economic factors that affect in income distribution changes caused by changes in the policy framework in Vietnam during the period of reforms. The adopted methodology analyzes policy induced changes in income distribution both at the micro and the macro level. At the micro level, the analysis of inequality can help identifying the socio-economic factors affecting the level of household expenditure and its distribution and evaluating direct effects of policies. The macro level identifies the structural characteristics of inequality and evaluates also the indirect effects of policies on the personal income distribution. The two analytical tools have been selected have been a supply driven model represented by the microsimulation model and a demand driven model, constituted by the Social Accounting Matrix. The microsimulation model allowed deriving a counterfactual distribution of income and disaggregating change in the Vietnamese income inequality into four effects: price effect, effect of a change in the unobservable component of wages, occupational choice effect and population effect. Using a new technique of decomposition of SAM-based multipliers in 'microscopic' detail, the macro model allowed deriving all the direct and indirect effects of an exogenous shock to personal income distribution.
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Almeida, Vanda. "Income inequality and the stabilising role of the tax and transfer system in times of crisis." Thesis, Paris, EHESS, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019EHES0194.
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Les crises globales entraînent souvent d'énormes perturbations économiques, qui peuvent durer de nombreuses années. Il est donc important de comprendre leurs conséquences et comment élaborer des politiques efficaces dans la réduction de leurs impacts. Il existe une littérature abondante sur les effets d’une crise au niveau agrégé et le rôle stabilisateur des politiques macroéconomiques. Toutefois, on a accordé beaucoup moins d'attention aux effets distributifs des crises et encore moins aux interactions entre ces effets et l'évolution de l’activité macroéconomique post crise. Si une aggravation des inégalités peut contribuer à une reprise faible de l'activité, alors le système d’impôts et prestations sociales peut être un stabilisateur macroéconomique en sus de son rôle redistributif. Il est donc essentiel de comprendre comment le système peut influer tant sur les effets agrégés, que sur les inégalités en temps de crise. Cette thèse vise à apporter un éclairage neuf sur ces questions, en utilisant de multiples méthodologies et ensembles de données, au niveau micro et macro, dans une approche empirique et théorique.Le premier article fait une évaluation détaillée de l'évolution des inégalités de revenus et des effets redistributifs du système d’impôts et prestations sociales après la crise de 2007-08 aux États-Unis. Utilisant un large éventail d'indicateurs, il examine plusieurs sections de la distribution de revenus et analyse la contribution des différentes composantes du système d’impôts et prestations sociales. Le second article développe une nouvelle méthode pour modéliser la distribution de revenus disponibles et décomposer l’évolution de celle-ci dans le temps, utilisant une double approche microéconométrique et de microsimulation. Il l’applique à l'étude de l'évolution de la distribution de revenus au Portugal après la crise de 2007-08 en tenant compte des effets de la crise et des politiques de relance et de consolidation budgétaire. Le troisième article développe un modèle théorique DSGE à agents hétérogènes, avec une hétérogénéité à la fois ex-ante et ex-post des ménages et assurance chômage. Il présente les résultats d'une première expérience quantitative, étudiant les effets distributifs et agrégés d'une crise et le rôle de l'assurance chômage pour ces effets, sous plusieurs scénarios hypothétiques de crise.Plusieurs conclusions émergent des résultats obtenus dans cette thèse. Premièrement, les crises globales peuvent avoir des effets très hétérogènes et persistants sur la répartition de revenus, particulièrement pénalisants pour les ménages à faible revenu. Deuxièmement, le système d’impôts et prestations sociales peut jouer un rôle crucial dans l'évolution de la distribution de revenus à la suite d'une crise. Un système fort peut amortir une augmentation des inégalités induite par la crise, tandis qu'un système faible peut les aggraver. Troisièmement, non seulement la magnitude, mais aussi la conception du système affecte son rôle en temps de crise. En particulier, un instrument plus progressif aura un effet stabilisateur plus important qu'un instrument uniforme. Quatrièmement, les politiques de stabilisation des agrégats économiques en temps de crise peuvent avoir des effets importants sur la répartition de revenus. En particulier, la mise en œuvre de mesures de consolidation peut renforcer les pertes de revenus induites par la crise et augmenter l'hétérogénéité des effets d'une crise. Enfin, l'hétérogénéité des ménages et de l’assurance sociale jouent un rôle important dans la transmission d'une crise globale à l’activité économique. La contraction de la consommation agrégée suite à une crise sera plus accentuée dans un monde où les ménages sont hétérogènes à la fois ex ante et ex post que dans un monde où l'hétérogénéité est uniquement ex post. De plus, une crise impliquera une contraction de la consommation agrégée plus faible dans un monde avec assurance sociale que dans un monde sans assurance socialeAggregate crises often bring tremendous economic disruptions, which may persist for many years. Understanding their consequences and how to effectively design crisis-coping policies is therefore of capital importance. The aggregate effects of crises and the stabilising role of macroeconomic policies have been significantly studied in the literature. Much less attention, however, has been given to the distributional effects of crises and even less to the possible interactions between these effects and the post-crisis evolution of aggregate outcomes. If a crisis-led increase in inequality can feedback into an anemic recovery of economic activity, then the tax and transfer system may have a role in stabilising not only the income distribution but also the macroeconomy. Understanding how the system may affect both distributional and aggregate developments in a crisis aftermath is therefore key. This thesis aims at shedding new light on these issues, using multiple methodologies and datasets both at the micro and macro level, applying both an empirical and theoretical approach.The first paper provides a detailed assessment of the evolution of income inequality and the redistributive effects of the tax and transfer system following the 2007-2008 crisis, in the US. Using a wide range of indicators, it looks at several sections of the income distribution and analyses the contribution of different components of the tax and transfer system. The second paper develops a new method to model the household disposable income distribution and decompose changes in this distribution over time, integrating both a microeconometric and microsimulation approach. It applies the method to the study of changes in the income distribution in Portugal following the 2007-2008 crisis, accounting for the effects of the crisis and of the aftermath fiscal stimulus and consolidation policies. The third paper develops a theoretical heterogeneous agents DSGE model, with both ex-ante and ex-post household heterogeneity and unemployment insurance. It presents the results of a first quantitative experiment, studying the distributional and aggregate effects of a crisis and the role of unemployment insurance in shaping these effects, under several hypothetical crisis scenarios.Several conclusions can be drawn from the results obtained in this thesis. First, aggregate crises may have substantial heterogeneous effects across the income distribution, being particularly penalising for lower income groups, and these effects may be highly persistent. Second, the tax and transfer system can crucially shape distributional developments following a crisis. A strong tax and transfer system may fully cushion a crisis-led increase in inequality, while a weak one may deepen it. Beyond the effects of automatic stabilisers, discretionary policy choices may have substantial effects. Third, not only the size but also the design of the tax and transfer system matters for its role in times of crisis. In particular, a more progressive instrument will have a higher stabilising effect than a flat one, both at the distributional and aggregate level. Fourth, policies aimed at stabilising aggregate outcomes in times of crisis may have significant "collateral" effects on the income distribution. In particular, the implementation of consolidation measures may reinforce income losses induced by the contractionary effects of the crisis and increase the heterogeneity of the effects of a crisis on households' incomes. Finally, household heterogeneity and social insurance matter for the transmission of an aggregate crisis to aggregate outcomes. A crisis will lead to a higher contraction of aggregate consumption in a world where there are both ex-ante and ex-post sources of household heterogeneity than in a world where there is only ex-post heterogeneity. Furthermore, a crisis will imply a smaller contraction of aggregate consumption in a world with social insurance than in a world without
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Patočka, Miroslav. "Lipůvka – spirálová okružní křižovatka silnic I/43 a II/379." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-226941.
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This thesis builds on previous work on an Institute of Roads FAST VUT dealing with modifications of road I/43 Brno – Svitavy. A conversion of the existing temporary three leg single lane roundabout to egg turbo roundabout with four legs, is proposed there, in accordance with local plan of Lipůvka. The intersection of road I/43 and II/379 can be characterized by large congestions in the morning peak hours during weekdays and afternoon peak hours on Saturday and Sunday. That is the reason for implementation of capacity assessment of designed turbo roundabout and comparison with current situation. Construction of fourth leg is motivated by the planned expansion of residential area and the development of industrial zone on the south-western outskirts of the village and rerouting of the county road II/379 out of built-up area as well. Road I/43 is an important thoroughfare north of Brno, so it is obvious effort to eliminate the bottlenecks on the route. The thesis also includes a theoretical introduction dealing with the design of turbo roundabouts abroad.
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Pribyl, Ondrej. "A microsimulation model of activity patterns and within household interactions." 2004. http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/WorldWideIndex/ETD-489/index.html.
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"An Assessment of Stochastic Variability and Convergence Characteristics in Travel Microsimulation Models." Master's thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.8815.
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abstract: In the middle of the 20th century in the United States, transportation and infrastructure development became a priority on the national agenda, instigating the development of mathematical models that would predict transportation network performance. Approximately 40 years later, transportation planning models again became a national priority, this time instigating the development of highly disaggregate activity-based traffic models called microsimulations. These models predict the travel on a network at the level of the individual decision-maker, but do so with a large computational complexity and processing time requirement. The vast resources and steep learning curve required to integrate microsimulation models into the general transportation plan have deterred planning agencies from incorporating these tools. By researching the stochastic variability in the results of a microsimulation model with varying random number seeds, this paper evaluates the number of simulation trials necessary, and therefore the computational effort, for a planning agency to reach stable model outcomes. The microsimulation tool used to complete this research is the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS). The requirements for initiating a TRANSIMS simulation are described in the paper. Two analysis corridors are chosen in the Metropolitan Phoenix Area, and the roadway performance characteristics volume, vehicle-miles of travel, and vehicle-hours of travel are examined in each corridor under both congested and uncongested conditions. Both congested and uncongested simulations are completed in twenty trials, each with a unique random number seed. Performance measures are averaged for each trial, providing a distribution of average performance measures with which to test the stability of the system. The results of this research show that the variability in outcomes increases with increasing congestion. Although twenty trials are sufficient to achieve stable solutions for the uncongested state, convergence in the congested state is not achieved. These results indicate that a highly congested urban environment requires more than twenty simulation runs for each tested scenario before reaching a solution that can be assumed to be stable. The computational effort needed for this type of analysis is something that transportation planning agencies should take into consideration before beginning a traffic microsimulation program.Dissertation/Thesis
M.S. Civil Engineering 2010
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Giroux-Cook, Martin. "Building a Microsimulation of the Rental Sector in the Greater Toronto Area." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/25595.
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This paper presents a microsimulation model of the rental sector in the Greater Toronto (GTA). The main contributions of this research are that it develops a conceptual framework for modeling housing issues and policies, and implements a rental model within the Integrated Land Use, Transport, and Environment (ILUTE) framework developed at the University of Toronto. The key components of the rental model include: (1) the production of rental units; (2) a tenure choice model; (3) a rent setting model; and (4) a rental market model. The rental model is simulated yearly from 1986 till 2006. The preliminary results are presented for the number of households renting, the average rent per census tract, and the number of renter households facing affordability issues. Two areas of future research are proposed that seek: (1) to improve the current model’s accuracy; and (2) to develop a more dynamic model.
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Harmon, Adam. "A Microsimulated Industrial and Occupation-based Labour Market Model for Use in the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) Modelling System." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/42876.
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Urban microsimulators have been increasingly used to forecast land use, environmental and transportation conditions in cities and are a major tool for stakeholders to analyze the effects of urban policy. Although demographic and residential land use models have been well developed for the majority of these systems, labour market conditions and the forecasting of future jobs have at best been limited to high-level exogenous processes. This thesis aims to develop and implement a truly endogenous job supply and job matching model for use with the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. Jobs within the system are tracked individually at both the occupational and industrial level, and matching occurs within an open market framework in an effort to simulate the true macroeconomic conditions of the real world.
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Kucirek, Peter. "Comparison between MATSim & EMME: Developing a Dynamic, Activity-based Microsimulation Transit Assignment Model for Toronto." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/33277.
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Public transit is becoming an increasing important field of study to combat global issues such as traffic congestion and climate change. Accurate simulation of public transit is therefore likewise vital, as it is an important tool for understanding potential impacts of public transit policies. The research presented in this thesis describes the implementation of a multimodal, dynamic, agent-based supply-side simulation model of public transit implemented in the open-source platform MATSim for the city of Toronto. Transit schedule data was converted from Google Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and map-matched to a region-wide road network to obtain a congestion-based multimodal assignment for transit. Volume-based results from the assignment showed under-prediction of subway volumes and slight over-prediction of bus volumes, but were generally comparable with static EMME/3 assignment for the same data. Travel time analysis indicated that further calibration of network specification is needed.
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"Integrated Model of the Urban Continuum with Dynamic Time-dependent Activity-Travel Microsimulation: Framework, Prototype, and Implementation." Doctoral diss., 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.14529.
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abstract: The development of microsimulation approaches to urban systems modeling has occurred largely in three parallel streams of research, namely, land use, travel demand and traffic assignment. However, there are important dependencies and inter-relationships between the model systems which need to be accounted to accurately and comprehensively model the urban system. Location choices affect household activity-travel behavior, household activity-travel behavior affects network level of service (performance), and network level of service, in turn, affects land use and activity-travel behavior. The development of conceptual designs and operational frameworks that represent such complex inter-relationships in a consistent fashion across behavioral units, geographical entities, and temporal scales has proven to be a formidable challenge. In this research, an integrated microsimulation modeling framework called SimTRAVEL (Simulator of Transport, Routes, Activities, Vehicles, Emissions, and Land) that integrates the component model systems in a behaviorally consistent fashion, is presented. The model system is designed such that the activity-travel behavior model and the dynamic traffic assignment model are able to communicate with one another along continuous time with a view to simulate emergent activity-travel patterns in response to dynamically changing network conditions. The dissertation describes the operational framework, presents the modeling methodologies, and offers an extensive discussion on the advantages that such a framework may provide for analyzing the impacts of severe network disruptions on activity-travel choices. A prototype of the model system is developed and implemented for a portion of the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area in Arizona to demonstrate the capabilities of the model system.Dissertation/Thesis
Ph.D. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2012
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Weiss, Adam. "Framework for the Integration of a Parameterized Logit Captivity Model for Morning Commuting in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area with an Agent Based Dynamic Traffic Micro Simulation." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/43331.
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This thesis proposes a framework that combines a mode choice model with a large scaled agent-based multimodal traffic microsimulation. Both components are discussed with respect to their development as separate entities. The mode choice model uses a formulation that explicitly considers latent modal captivity despite using conventional travel survey data. An existing multimodal microsimulation traffic assignment model used in the study area is enhanced and partially calibrated for use with the MATSIM traffic assignment tool. Both of the components are then tested independently in terms of statistical and behavioral validity and a conceptual procedure to test the implications of the mode choice model on mode switching behaviour within the traffic assignment model is presented. Other applications of both the travel assignment model and mode choice model are discussed. In order for the framework to become operational, further development with respect to the traffic assignment model is required.
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Duivestein, Jared. "Household Vehicle Fleet Decision-making for an Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment Model." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/42825.
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Understanding how households make decisions with regards to their vehicle fleet based on their demographics, socio-economic status and travel patterns is critical for managing the financial, economic, social and environmental health of cities.
Vehicle fleets therefore form a component of the Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment (ILUTE) modelling system under development at the University of Toronto. ILUTE is a year-by-year agent-based microsimulation model of demographics, land use and economic patterns, vehicle fleet
decisions and travel choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.
This thesis extends previous work that modelled the quantity, class and vintage of vehicles in ILUTE households. This revised model offers three key improvements: transaction decisions are made sensitive
to travel patterns, fuel costs are better represented, and vehicle purchases are considered in the context of the overall household budgeting. Results are promising, but further model validation is required.
Potential extensions of the research are discussed.
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"Modeling the Role and Influence of Children in Household Activity-Based Travel Model Systems." Master's thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.8757.
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abstract: Rapid developments are occurring in the arena of activity-based microsimulation models. Advances in computational power, econometric methodologies and data collection have all contributed to the development of microsimulation tools for planning applications. There has also been interest in modeling child daily activity-travel patterns and their influence on those of adults in the household using activity-based microsimulation tools. It is conceivable that most of the children are largely dependent on adults for their activity engagement and travel needs and hence would have considerable influence on the activity-travel schedules of adult members in the household. In this context, a detailed comparison of various activity-travel characteristics of adults in households with and without children is made using the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. The analysis is used to quantify and decipher the nature of the impact of activities of children on the daily activity-travel patterns of adults. It is found that adults in households with children make a significantly higher proportion of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) trips and lower proportion of single occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips when compared to those in households without children. They also engage in more serve passenger activities and fewer personal business, shopping and social activities. A framework for modeling activities and travel of dependent children is proposed. The framework consists of six sub-models to simulate the choice of going to school/pre-school on a travel day, the dependency status of the child, the activity type, the destination, the activity duration, and the joint activity engagement with an accompanying adult. Econometric formulations such as binary probit and multinomial logit are used to obtain behaviorally intuitive models that predict children's activity skeletons. The model framework is tested using a 5% sample of a synthetic population of children for Maricopa County, Arizona and the resulting patterns are validated against those found in NHTS data. Microsimulation of these dependencies of children can be used to constrain the adult daily activity schedules. The deployment of this framework prior to the simulation of adult non-mandatory activities is expected to significantly enhance the representation of the interactions between children and adults in activity-based microsimulation models.Dissertation/Thesis
M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2010
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Siddiqui, Nasir Uddin. "Methods for calibrating and validating stochastic microsimulation traffic models." 2003. http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-12072003-031019/unrestricted/etd.pdf.
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Mandali, Yoganand. "Applications of microsimulation traffic data in infrastructure construction projects using 3D/4D CAD models." 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/21523.
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Transportation projects often involve communication of project information between diverse parties and have been a challenge with increasing complexity. Communication, review and feedback are very important for planners, builders/developers and traffic engineers for successful project execution. Past research was successful in finding effective ways to communicate to stakeholders and improve project performance. 3D/4D CAD modeling has been one among them which offers potential benefits from planning to construction phase owing to its wide range of capabilities. However, there is no single tool to analyze traffic conditions and changing geometry during construction for reviewing and better decision-making. A methodology to use DTA models as a source for traffic information and development of traffic visualization during construction with microsimulation output is discussed in this thesis. The benefits of adding traffic information to 3D/4D CAD models and some potential areas of application are explored. Two case studies on TxDOT transportation construction projects are considered to explain the modeling and analysis for better understanding of different phases of the projects. Also, a small construction scenario was analyzed to validate the traffic data generated from DTA models for their use as an input to microsimulation models.text
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Castiglione, Filippo [Verfasser]. "Microsimulation of complex system dynamics : automata models in biology and finance / vorgelegt von Filippo Castiglione." 2001. http://d-nb.info/961934522/34.
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Paleti, Ravi Venkata Durga Rajesh. "On integrating models of household vehicle ownership, composition, and evolution with activity based travel models." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2012-12-6687.
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Activity-based travel demand model systems are increasingly being deployed to microsimulate daily activity-travel patterns of individuals. However, a critical dimension that is often missed in these models is that of vehicle type choice. The current dissertation addresses this issue head-on and contributes to the field of transportation planning in three major ways. First, this research develops a comprehensive vehicle micro-simulation framework that incorporates state-of-the-art household vehicle type choice, usage, and evolution models. The novelty of the framework developed is that it accommodates all the dimensions characterizing vehicle fleet/usage decisions, as well as accommodates all dimensions of vehicle transactions (i.e., fleet evolution) over time. The models estimated are multiple discrete-continuous models (vehicle type being the discrete component and vehicle mileage being the continuous component) and spatial discrete choice models that explicitly accommodate for multiple vehicle ownership and spatial interactions among households. More importantly, the vehicle fleet simulator developed in this study can be easily integrated within an activity-based microsimulation framework.
Second, the vehicle fleet evolution and composition models developed in this dissertation are used to predict the vehicle fleet characteristics, annual mileage, and the associated fuel consumption and green-house gas (GHG) emissions for future years as a function of the built environment, demographics, fuel and related technology, and policy scenarios. This exercise contributes in substantial ways to the identification of promising strategies to increase the penetration of alternative-fuel vehicles and fuel-efficient vehicles, reduce energy consumption, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Lastly, this research captures several complex interactions between vehicle ownership, location, and activity-travel decisions of individuals by estimating 1) a joint tour-based model of tour complexity, passenger accompaniment, vehicle type choice, and tour length, and 2) an integrated model of residential location, work location, vehicle ownership, and commute tour characteristics. The methodology used for estimating these models allows the specification and estimation of multi-dimensional choice model systems covering a wide spectrum of dependent variable types (including multinomial, ordinal, count, and continuous) and may be viewed as a major advance with the potential to lead to redefine the way activity-based travel model systems are structured and implemented.text