Academic literature on the topic 'Masonry buildings in aggregate'

Most of the historical and old building stock in Europe are constructed from masonry, when brick, stones, or their combination are bound with traditional mortars. Rising damp, due to accompanying effects, is the main factor influencing the quality of indoor climate as well as having an important impact on the durability of masonry structures. In this study, new types of lightweight concrete with waste aggregate content as a suitable material for remediation of damp damaged masonries were designed and tested. Alternative aggregate served as silica sand substitution in the range of 0–100 vol.%. Basic structural properties, mechanical resistance, water, and water vapor transport properties were measured after 28 days of water curing and were compared with dense reference concrete and with traditional masonry materials as well. Moreover, the porous structure of produced concretes and changes caused by usage of alternative aggregate usage were evaluated with the mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) technique. Obtained experimental data showed the suitability of modified concretes with 25–50 vol.% of waste aggregate content to ensure acceptable strength and hydric properties, and these properties were found to be comparable with masonry structures and materials used in the past.

Most of the Italian historical centers are composed of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings arranged in aggregate configurations. Past and recent seismic events have underlined the high vulnerability of these buildings especially towards out-of-plane mechanisms. In order to reduce their vulnerability, the use of strengthening interventions based on fiber reinforced composite materials has become widespread in the last years. More recently, strengthening systems using natural fibers have been the object of experimental tests since they represent an innovative environmentally sustainable solution. The aim of this paper is to numerically analyze the feasibility of strengthening systems made of natural fibers embedded into cementitious matrices to prevent the out-of-plane mechanisms of perimeter façades belonging to masonry buildings in aggregate configurations. For this purpose, numerical analyses based on a macro-modeling approach for out-of-plane mechanisms are performed by considering the influence of adjacent structural units and the presence of strengthening systems made of natural fibers. Both aspects have been analyzed in detail and taken into account by introducing in the equation governing the problem both the friction acting between adjacent walls of building units, when in aggregate, and the contribution of the strengthening system. A building case study forming part of an aggregate of an Italian historical center has been considered for the development of the numerical analyses.

Masonry construction is the most widely used building method in the world. Concrete masonry is relatively low in cost due to the vast availability of aggregates used within the production process. These aggregate materials are not always reliable for structural use. One of the principal issues associated with masonry is the brittleness of the unit. When subject to seismic loads, the brittleness of the masonry magnifies. In regions with high seismic activity and unspecified building codes or standards, masonry housing has developed into a death trap for countless individuals. A common approach concerning the issue associated with the brittle characteristic of masonry is addition of steel reinforcement. However, this can be expensive, highly dependent on skillfulness of labor, and particularly dependent on the quality of available steel. A proposed solution presented in this investigation consists of introducing steel fibers to the lightweight aggregate concrete masonry mix. Previous investigations in the field of lightweight aggregate fiber-reinforced concrete have shown an increase in flexural strength, toughness, and ductility. The outcome of this research project provides invaluable data for the production of a ductile masonry unit capable of withstanding seismic loads for prolonged periods.

The vulnerability assessment of existing masonry buildings is a largely investigated research topic with some aspects still to be faced. In historic towns, masonry buildings are aggregated and together confined, and their final appearance is derived from interventions and additions during their lives in different times and with different masonry textures or different construction materials. Demolitions and reconstructions of some parts were frequent, with the difficulty of now understanding the effectiveness of the mutual constraints. The seismic assessment of a case study of a 175-year-old building complex in Udine (Italy) provides an opportunity to use the results of ambient vibration tests to face the problem of modelling aggregate buildings for their seismic assessment. The “Padiglione Lodi” building complex was built in 1847 and extended and renovated several times afterwards. It was built mostly using URM with limited use of reinforced concrete. It consists of a main building and three wings (western, central and eastern). The inspections, experimental survey and analysis of the available documentation are used to suitably calibrate a Finite Element Model of the whole complex. Moreover, this allows the singling out of the central wing, as the unit needs more careful investigation. Non-destructive dynamic testing is then applied to the central wing in order to further validate the model and improve the knowledge of the interaction of the unit with the rest of the building. General remarks on the effective application of non-destructive dynamic analysis in conjunction with other methods to the seismic assessment of large URM building complexes are drawn.

During bushfires, one of the building elements that is directly exposed to embers, radiant heat and direct flames is the “wall” element. This study investigated the feasibility of using expanded perlite aggregate in masonry (i.e., cement) blocks to enhance their bushfire resistant characteristics. The chemical, physical, and thermal properties of expanded perlite aggregate were determined first and then masonry block cement mixes were developed by replacing sand in the conventional mix with expanded perlite aggregate by volume at different percentages (100, 80, 60, and 40%). The properties of fresh and hardened cement mixes (slump, density, compressive strength, and water absorption) were measured. The developed masonry blocks were exposed to Bushfire Flame Zone conditions (i.e., 20–842 °C) and the standard fire curve for three hours (i.e., 20–1110 °C) to assess their resistance to bushfires and building fires, respectively. The properties of Cement–Expanded Perlite mixes were compared with those of the standard Cement–Sand mix. The test results showed that the use of perlite aggregate reduced the workability, density, and compressive strength of the cement mix while increasing the water absorption and fire resistance level. All the developed perlite blocks were lightweight and had three hours of fire resistance level (-/180/180). When exposed to bushfire flame zone conditions, the blocks made with 100, 80, and 60% perlite satisfied the maximum ambient surface temperature limit. Of these, masonry blocks made with 60% perlite aggregate are the most suitable for use in external walls of bushfire shelters and residential and commercial buildings in bushfire-prone areas.

The ability to produce load-bearing masonry units adopting ACI 211.1 mix design using (1:3.2:2.5) as (cement: fine aggregate: coarse aggregate) with slump range (25-50mm) which can conform (dimension, absorption, and compressive strength) within IQS 1077/1987 requirements type A was our main goal of the study. The ability to use low cement content (300 kg/m3) to handle our market price products since the most consumption in wall construction for low-cost buildings was encouraging. The use of (10 and 20%) of LECA as partial volume replacement of coarse aggregate to reduce the huge weight of masonry blocks can also be recommended. The types of production of the load-bearing masonry units were A and B for (10 and 20%), respectively. Finally, the use of the spray curing method was the more suitable simulation of reality and easier for factory producers, taking into consideration that the increasing curing time from 14 days (recommended in IQS 1077/1987) to 28 days may be led to conversation masonry type from B to A as in R20%-300.

The Theoretical calculation and the finite element method (FEM) are used for studying the thermal property of hollow-block and hollow-masonry. The method of appendix in the standard for Thermal Design of Civil Buildings is adopted to calculate the thermal resistance and the average thermal conductivity of hollow-block and hollow-masonry. ANSYS is used for simulating temperature distribution and heat flux law under connective loads. The conduction and convection phenomena are taking into account in this study for four different values of the mortar conductivity and four different values for the bricks. The thermal resistance and the average thermal conductivity of hollow-block and hollow-masonry is the key factor for reference.

Aggregate masonry buildings have been generated over the years, allowing the interaction of different aggregated structural units under seismic action. The first part of this work is focused on the seismic vulnerability and fragility assessment of clay brick masonry buildings, sited in Bologna (Italy), with reference, at first, to single isolated structural units, by means of the Response Surface statistical method, taking into account some variabilities and uncertainties involved in the problem. The seismic action was defined by means of a group of selected registered accelerograms, in order to analyse the effect of the variability of the earthquakes. Identical and different structural units chosen by the Response Surface generated simulations are then aggregated in row, in order to compare the collapse PGA referred to the isolated structural unit and the one referred to the aggregate structure. The second part is focused on the seismic vulnerability and fragility assessment of stone masonry structures, sited in Seixal (Portugal), applying a methodology similar to that used for the buildings sited in Bologna. Since the availability of several information, the analyses involved the assessment of the most prevalent structural typologies in the area, considering the variability of a set of structural and geometrical parameters. The results highlighted the importance of the statistic procedures as method able to consider the variabilities and the uncertainties involved in the problem of the fragility of unreinforced masonry structures, in absence of accurate investigations on the structural typologies, as in the Seixal case study. Furthermore, it was showed that the structural units along the unreinforced clay brick or stone masonry aggregates cannot be analysed as isolated, as they are affected by the effect of the aggregation with adjacent structural units, according to the different directions of the seismic action considered and to their different position along the row aggregate.

Unreinforced masonry (URM) structures have shown tobe susceptible to significant damage during strong earthquakes. Vulnerability assessment of URM buildings is needed so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be implemented. The existing Canadian practice consists of rapid seismic screening of buildings to assign priorities for further and more refined assessments, followed by refined analysis of individual critical buildings. The current seismic screening procedure, from 1992, is based on qualitative observations of seismic vulnerability, enabling the assignment of seismic priority indices, quantified on the basis of expert opinion and experience. More refined tools are needed for seismic vulnerability assessment of URM buildings in Canada, based on the current Canadian seismic hazard values. The objective of the research project is to fulfill these needs by developing fragility curves that provide a probabilistic assessment of different levels of building performance under different intensities ofeastern and western seismicity. Using an inventory of over 50,000 structures, a seismic assessment of typical low-rise and mid-rise URM structures located in eastern and western Canada was carried out. The required analyses were done using applied element method software which effectively modeled the in-plane and out-of-plane behaviour of masonry walls. Using incremental dynamic analysis, fragility curves were developed to reflect the capacity of URM structures with a wide variety of selected structural and ground motion parameters. The results were verified against available fragility information in the literature. They show the significance of selected parameters, while providing effective tools for seismic vulnerability assessment of URM buildings in eastern and western Canada.

La presente tesi tratta il comportamento meccanico delle fasce di piano in muratura composite. Con tale termine ci si riferisce alle fasce di piano che hanno al di sotto un elemento portante in conglomerato cementizio armato, come ad esempio cordoli o solai. Assieme ai maschi murari, le fasce di piano costituiscono gli elementi portanti di una parete in muratura. Tuttavia, in caso di analisi sismica di un edificio in muratura, l’effetto fornito da tali elementi è trascurato e si considera solamente il contributo dei maschi murari. Ciò è dovuto anche alla scarsa conoscenza che ancora oggi si possiede sul loro comportamento meccanico. Per questo motivo diversi gruppi di ricerca tutt’ora sono impegnati in tale studio. In particolare, il lavoro di questa tesi, s’inserisce nel più ampio progetto di ricerca condotto dalla professoressa Katrin Beyer, direttrice del Laboratorio di Ingegneria Sismica e Dinamica Strutturale del Politecnico di Losanna (Svizzera).

Master of Science
Architectural Engineering and Construction Science
Kimberly W. Kramer
The term hybrid masonry describes three variations of a lateral force resisting system that utilizes masonry panels inside steel framing to resist lateral loads from wind or earthquakes. The system originates from the rich history of masonry in the construction industry and is currently used in low-rise, low-seismic, wind-governed locations within the United States. Considerable research is focused on hybrid systems to prove their validity in high-seismic applications. The three variations of hybrid masonry are known by number. Type I hybrid masonry utilizes the masonry panel as a non-load-bearing masonry shear wall. Shear loads from the diaphragm are transferred into the beam, through metal plates, and over an air gap to the top of the masonry panel. The masonry panel transfers the shear to the beam below the panel using compression at the toe of the wall and tension through the reinforcement that is welded to the beam supporting the masonry. Steel framing in this system is designed to resist all gravity loads and effects from the shear wall. Type II hybrid masonry utilizes the masonry as a load-bearing masonry shear wall. The masonry wall, which is constructed from the ground up, supports the floor live loads and dead load of the wall, as well as the lateral seismic load. Shear is transferred from the diaphragm to the steel beam and into the attached masonry panel via shear studs. The masonry panel transfers the seismic load using compression at the toe and opposite corner of the panel. Type III hybrid masonry also utilizes the masonry panel as a load-bearing masonry shear wall, but the load transfer mechanisms are more complicated since the panel is attached to the surrounding steel framing on all four sides of the panel. This study created standard building designs for hybrid systems and a standard moment frame system with masonry infill in order to evaluate the validity of Type I and II hybrid masonry. The hybrid systems were compared to the standard of a moment frame system based on constructability, design, and economics.

An integrated experimental and analytical study investigating the in-plane performance of timber floor diaphragms in URM buildings is presented. The research presented in this thesis was conducted with the primary aim of developing a revised procedure for the detailed seismic assessment of timber floor diaphragms in URM buildings. The deformation mechanics of timber floor diaphragms are presented and were used to develop an analytical model that can be used to predict diaphragm nonlinear performance. The analytical model was used to update the current idealisation of diaphragm behaviour in current seismic assessment documents. A three-phase experimental testing program is presented. Nail connection testing results indicated that connections in diaphragms contained within existing URM buildings have substantially lower initial stiffness, strength, and displacement capacity than do new connections. Small-scale diaphragm testing results proved that friction resistance between straight-edge or tongue and groove floorboards is negligible. Full-scale diaphragm testing results confirmed the highly flexible and orthotropic behaviour of timber floor diaphragms, and that a small stairwell penetration or the presence of discontinuous joists having a reliable mechanical connection do not significantly influence diaphragm performance. A finite element (FE) modelling method for timber floor diaphragms using the structural analysis software SAP2000 was appropriately validated using analytical modelling results and experimental data. Salvaged nail connection load-slip test data was used to program a diaphragm FE model to establish the representative performance of diaphragms in ~100 year old URM buildings in New Zealand. A comprehensive parametric analysis of diaphragm behaviour was subsequently undertaken. Finally, a revised assessment procedure for timber floor diaphragms was developed, which incorporates representative performance parameters, and provides suitable provisions to account for diaphragm orthotropic behaviour and for variations in key diaphragm configuration characteristics.

This thesis reports the investigation on the material properties of New Zealand's heritage clay brick unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings. The primary focus of this doctoral investigation was to establish a methodology to determine the material properties of existing New Zealand URM buildings. Although researchers from Europe, USA, India and Australia have previously studied the material properties of clay brick unreinforced masonry, knowledge on New Zealand URM material properties was poor at the time the study commenced. Therefore, a research programme that primarily focused on the testing of samples extracted from existing New Zealand URM buildings was undertaken. Vintage clay bricks and irregular mortar samples were extracted from existing New Zealand URM buildings, and were subjected to a series of non-destructive tests before being tested in compression. The relationships between the non-destructive test results and the clay brick and mortar compressive strengths were studied, and non-destructive testing techniques that were most suitable for estimating clay brick and mortar compressive strengths in-situ were proposed. Also, a methodology for the compression testing of irregular mortar samples that are extracted from existing URM buildings and a technique to normalise the irregular mortar compression test results were developed. The compressive strength and compressive stiffness of masonry were studied using masonry prisms that were both extracted from existing buildings and were constructed in the laboratory. Empirical relationships relating the brick unit, mortar and masonry compressive strengths as well as relating the masonry compressive strength to the masonry Modulus of Elasticity were derived. Also, numerical models for the compression stress-strain relationship of masonry were proposed. The flexural bond strength and shear bond strength of masonry were studied using field extracted and laboratory constructed masonry prisms. Empirical relationships relating the mortar compressive strength to the flexural bond strength and to the bed joint cohesion were derived. Finally, a procedure to assess the material properties of existing New Zealand URM buildings was recommended.

<p>Masonry structures are probably the most popular and ancient type of buildings all over the world. Easy access of its constitutive materials, which are basically stones, bricks, and mortar (which varies from region to region), makes masonry one of the everlasting construction methods from small residential buildings to the most important ancient and historic monuments. <p>Some masonry buildings have proved to be resistant structures even in seismic prone areas, due to some specific structural characteristics that have been observed throughout the years and after many destructive earthquakes. In this chapter, an effort will be made to refer to and describe the most characteristic deficiencies in unreinforced and reinforced masonry buildings under seis-mic actions. Design recommendations for new earthquake-resistant structures will follow, and some retrofitting and strengthening strategies for existing masonry buildings will be proposed.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.