Academic literature on the topic 'Mappa logistica'

Appropriate perioperative management of patients on chronic oral anticoagulation (OAC)—including warfarin and the direct oral anticoagulants—is a poorly defined yet important clinical issue with potentially severe consequences in the postoperative period. We sought to prospectively evaluate the effect of the Management of Anticoagulation in the Periprocedural Period (MAPPP) mobile app as a clinical decision tool in the management of patients on chronic OAC undergoing elective procedures or surgeries. Between January 1, 2018, and January 31, 2019, 642 patients treated in our health system were included. Eligible patients met the following criteria: age >18 years old, creatinine clearance ≥15 mL/min, and on chronic OAC with adequate information regarding baseline characteristics. Our study outcome was patient’s emergency department (ED) visits within 30 days postprocedure. The MAPPP app was integrated into the electronic health record (EHR), and the end user was free to accept or decline recommended evidence-based perioperative anticoagulation management guidance. Analysis revealed that acceptance was more common in younger patients ( P = .0137), patients on oral anticoagulants other than warfarin ( P < .0001), and patients undergoing increased bleeding risk procedures ( P = .0068). Acceptance of the MAPPP app recommendation was significantly associated with fewer ED visits (acceptance group: 4.0% vs rejection group: 8.3%, P = .0205). Logistic regression showed that intervention acceptance and female gender were significantly associated with fewer—while age ≥80 with more—30-day ED visits. Our findings indicate that newer technologies, such as the MAPPP app, integrated into clinical EHR workflow, can significantly augment evidence-based perioperative anticoagulation management and potentially result in a reduction of adverse outcomes.

O processo erosivo é um fenômeno que acontece devido às condições climáticas ou uso inadequado da terra. O mapeamento dos níveis de vulnerabilidade à erosão de uma área pode ocorrer usando diferentes modelos de inferência geográfica. No entanto, definir o método apropriado é ainda uma questão a ser respondida. Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem de validação de mapa de vulnerabilidade à erosão elaborado por diferentes métodos de inferência. Como estudo de caso, adotou-se uma bacia hidrográfica e considerou-se os seguintes critérios: geomorfologia, pedologia, declividade, densidade de drenagem e cobertura da terra. Dentre os métodos testados tem-se: Combinação Linear Ponderada (CLP) e três operadores Fuzzy: soma algébrica, produto algébrico e gamma, variando o expoente “γ” entre os valores 0,4; 0,6 e 0,8. Os pesos dos critérios foram definidos com base no Processo Analítico Hierárquico. A validação dos mapas ocorreu usando 1902 pontos, sendo 951 pontos de erosão na área, definidos com base em imagens do Google Earth Pro, e 951 pontos sem erosão, gerados aleatoriamente no QGIS 3.8. O modelo de regressão logística foi usado parar comparar o desempenho de cada mapa ao apontar as áreas com maior e menor grau de vulnerabilidade. A melhor modelagem foi alcançada com o operador Fuzzy gamma quando parametrizado com γ = 0,6. Embora o CLP seja a abordagem recorrente em estudos ambientais envolvendo inferência geográfica, nossos resultados demostram que outros operadores podem produzir resultados mais próximos aos encontrados com a realidade observada em campo. Machine learning erosion and vulnerability map validation A B S T R A C TErosion is a natural phenomenon that happens in all ecosystems, whether due to weather conditions or inappropriate land use. Mapping the erosion vulnerability levels of an area can occur using different methods of geographic inference. However, defining the appropriate method is still a question to be answered. This paper presents an erosion vulnerability map validation approach elaborated by different inference methods. As a case study, a watershed was adopted and the following criteria were considered: geomorphology, pedology, slope, drainage density and land cover. Among the tested methods are: Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and three Fuzzy operators: algebraic sum, algebraic product and gamma, varying the exponent “γ” between the values 0.4; 0.6 and 0.8. The weights of the criteria were defined based on the Hierarchical Analytical Process. The validation of the maps took place using 1902 points, with 951 erosion points in the area defined based on Google Earth Pro images and 951 points without erosion randomly generated in QGIS 3.8. The logistic regression model was used to compare the performance of each map by pointing out the areas with the highest and lowest degree of vulnerability. The best modeling was achieved with the Fuzzy gamma operator when parameterized with γ = 0.6. Although WLC is the recurring approach in environmental studies involving geographic inference, our results show that other operators can produce results closer to those encountered with the reality observed in the field.Keywords: Geographical inference; multicriteria analysis; data validation; environmental impact.

Objectives: Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) with major aortopulmonary collaterals (MAPCA) is a well-known but always severe congenital heart disease. This study was designed to explore proper management after radical correction of TOF with MAPCA based on a hierarchical approach. Methods: The following data were collected from 39 patients planned to undergo radical correction of TOF: age, weight, number of aortopulmonary collaterals, total lumen diameter and collateral diameter-to-body weight ratio, transcatheter occlusion and cardiac catheterization findings, mechanical ventilation time, and ICU monitoring time. The patients were divided into 4 groups by collateral diameter-to-body weight ratio as follows: <0.200 mm/kg (group 1), 0.200-0.500 mm/kg (group 2), >0.500 mm/kg (group 3), and no MAPCA (group 4). Data analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics software for Mac version 22.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Ill., USA) with logistic regression and Fisher's exact test. Results: Most of the patients recovered well after radical correction; postoperative complications occurred in 12 patients and included bloody sputum, low cardiac output syndrome, and severe pulmonary infection that led to tracheotomy. By prolonging the mechanical ventilation time of the patients with postoperative complications, the conditions in 3 patients were improved. However, in the remaining patients, the condition worsened until transcatheter occlusions were performed. Transcatheter occlusion was performed in all 7 patients in group 3 (100%). Only 2 of the 8 patients in group 2 required transcatheter occlusion (25%), and none of the 9 patients in group 1 required transcatheter occlusion (0%). Only 1 patient (group 3) died after radical correction. The transcatheter occlusion results showed a strong association with the total lumen diameter and the collateral diameter-to-body weight ratio (p < 0.05) but no obvious association with age, weight, or the number of aortopulmonary collaterals (p > 0.05). Conclusions: Postoperative management of patients with TOF and MAPCA has great significance. To reduce the morbidity and mortality, transcatheter coil embolization or surgical ligation should be performed in patients with a collateral diameter-to-body weight ratio of at least 0.500 mm/kg. In patients with values between approximately 0.200 and 0.500 mm/kg, prolongation of mechanical ventilation should have priority over transcatheter occlusion, and for patients with values below 0.200 mm/kg no additional treatment is needed.

Mapas pedológicos são fontes de informações primordiais para planejamento e manejo do uso do solo, porém apresentam altos custos de produção. A fim de produzir mapas de solos a partir de mapas existentes, neste trabalho, foram comparados métodos de classificação em estágio único (Regressões Logísticas Múltiplas Multinomiais e Bayes) e em estágios múltiplos (Classification and Regression Trees (CART), J48 e Logistic Model Trees (LMT)) com a utilização de sistemas de informações geográficas e de variáveis geomorfométricas para produção de mapas pedológicos com legenda original e simplificada. A base de dados foi gerenciada em aplicativo computacional ArcGis, em que as variáveis e o mapa original foram relacionados por meio de amostras de treinamento para os algoritmos. Os resultados dos algoritmos obtidos no software Weka foram implementados no ArcGis, para a confecção dos mapas. Foram geradas matrizes de erros para análise de acurácias dos mapas. As variáveis geomorfométricas de declividade, perfil e plano de curvatura, elevação e índice de umidade topográfica são aquelas que melhor explicam a distribuição espacial das classes de solo. Os métodos de classificação em estágio múltiplo apresentaram sensíveis melhoras nas acurácias globais, porém significativas melhoras nos índices Kappa. A utilização de legenda simplificada aumentou significativamente as acurácias do produtor e do usuário.

ABSTRACT In this study, the microbiological quality of roof-harvested rainwater was assessed by monitoring the concentrations of Escherichia coli, enterococci, Clostridium perfringens, and Bacteroides spp. in rainwater obtained from tanks in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Samples were also tested using real-time PCR (with SYBR Green I dye) for the presence of potential pathogenic microorganisms. Of the 27 rainwater samples tested, 17 (63%), 21 (78%), 13 (48%), and 24 (89%) were positive for E. coli, enterococci, C. perfringens, and Bacteroides spp., respectively. Of the 27 samples, 11 (41%), 7 (26%), 4 (15%), 3 (11%), and 1 (4%) were PCR positive for the Campylobacter coli ceuE gene, the Legionella pneumophila mip gene, the Aeromonas hydrophila lip gene, the Salmonella invA gene, and the Campylobacter jejuni mapA gene. Of the 21 samples tested, 4 (19%) were positive for the Giardia lamblia β-giardin gene. The binary logistic regression model indicated a positive correlation (P < 0.02) between the presence/absence of enterococci and A. hydrophila. In contrast, the presence/absence of the remaining potential pathogens did not correlate with traditional fecal indicators. The poor correlation between fecal indicators and potential pathogens suggested that fecal indicators may not be adequate to assess the microbiological quality of rainwater and consequent health risk.

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Many elderly patients with COVID-19 are at risk of malnutrition. The aim of our study was to evaluate the risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia in elderly COVID-19 patients with the R-MAPP (Remote-Malnutrition APP). <b><i>Materials and Methods:</i></b> A cross-sectional study of 337 consecutive outpatients ≥65 years who attended the Central Emergency COVID-19 Hospital of Castilla y Leon was conducted. In all patients, the protocol of R-MAPP (Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool [MUST] and Simple Questionnaire to Rapidly Diagnose Sarcopenia [SARC-F]) was realized. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The mean age was 86.1 ± 8.7 years, with a sex distribution of 167 males (49.5%) and 170 females (51.5%). According to the MUST test, patients with 0 points have a low nutritional risk (<i>n</i> = 50, 14.8%), 1 point a medium nutritional risk (<i>n</i> = 19, 5.6%), and 2 or more points a high nutritional risk (<i>n</i> = 268, 79.6%). The SARC-F questionnaire generates patients with 4 or more points as predictive of sarcopenia (<i>n</i> = 304, 80.2%) and &#x3c;4 points without prediction of sarcopenia (<i>n</i> = 33, 9.8%). Global mortality was 24.03% (<i>n</i> = 81). The mortality rate was related to the pathological SARC-F score ≥4 (27.1% vs. 3.1%; <i>p</i> = 0.01) and MUST score ≥2 (26.7% vs. 16.4%; <i>p</i> = 0.04). In the logistic regression analysis, only the SARC-F score ≥4 remained as an independent variable related to mortality; odds ratio was 8.34 (95% CI: 1.1–63.8; <i>p</i> = 0.04), adjusted for age, sex, albumin levels, and MUST test. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> During COVID-19 infection, hospitalized patients at risk of sarcopenia have a high risk of mortality and have a poor nutritional status.

A infraestrutura aeroportuária e os serviços de desembaraço aduaneiro de cargas importadas podem ser considerados uma vantagem competitiva das empresas no Pólo Industrial de Manaus (PIM). A redução do tempo de liberação de cargas seria apennas uma das vantagens. O estudo tem como objetivo propor um modelo de gerenciamento ágil e flexível na recepção de cargas aéreas de insumos importados de modo que este atenda satisfatoriamente a Cadeia de Suprimentos Ágil, que tem a capacidade de responder as mudanças, diversidades, demandas imprevisíveis dos clientes, e que reduz os riscos de interrupções dos fornecimentos para as empresas do PIM. Este trabalho, que culmina com um estudo de caso, não somente aborda os fabricantes de produtos high-tech e inovadores, que são de alto valor agregado, mas todos os atores (INFRAERO, RFB, ANVISA, MAPA, DESPACHANTE, Empresas Importadoras) envolvidos na importação da carga, desde sua chegada no TECA até a entrega da carga para o importador. A pesquisa dá visibilidade à importância da infraestrutura e rapidez nos serviços de liberação de cargas importadas, através de um modelo de gerenciamento capaz de incluir o PIM nas exigências da competitividade externa entre as cadeias de suprimento, fazendo uso de estratégias adequadas como o modelo de incerteza da cadeia de suprimentos (MICS). Como resultado obtido é apresentado um modelo identificado como alternativa ao Regime Aduaneiro Especial de Entreposto Industrial sobre Controle Informatizado (RICOF), considerado instrumento de atração e facilitador de desenvolvimento das empresas globais de produtos considerados como integrantes da cadeia de incerteza, de modo que seja observado o ganho logístico e não apenas o tributário, sabendo que no Brasil não se inclui os regimes especiais e atípicos, como as empresas do Pólo Industrial de Manaus (PIM).

Abstract Introduction : Antiplatelet antibody (APA) testing is considered an adjunct laboratory test in the diagnosis of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). While it is not routinely obtained owing to inconsistent sensitivity and specificity in prior studies (Neunert et al, 2011), the definition of ITP used in these studies was not standardized. Additionally, potential clinical utility of this testing beyond diagnosis has been suggested, such as correlations between certain serologic patterns and response to IVIG (Peng et al, 2014). In consideration of these prior findings, we undertook a retrospective analysis of APA testing [glycoprotein-specific testing done by the commercial PakAuto assay (Immucor, Brookfield, WI), a monoclonal antibody immobilization of platelet antigens (MAIPA) assay, with all testing performed by the same laboratory] utilizing standardized ITP and Evans syndrome (ES) diagnostic criteria for patient inclusion. We examined serologic evolution over time and relation of antibody positivity to disease severity and response to therapies. Methods : Data collected for analysis included dates and results of APA testing (including disease status and platelet count at time of testing), patient demographics, and disease characteristics. Satisfaction of the 2011 American Society of Hematology (ASH) ITP diagnostic criteria were required for ITP patient inclusion and standard definitions of disease severity and response to treatment from the ASH guidelines were used in analysis. Logistic regression was used to model the probability of disease severity (non-severe, severe, or refractory) and treatment response (to corticosteroids or IVIG) based on serologic findings. Longitudinal serologic evolution in patients with multiple APA assays were analyzed. Results : A total of 214 APA assays from 115 ITP patients and 12 ES patients were collected; results from eluate testing (direct assay) only were used in analysis. Baseline patient characteristics are listed in Table 1. Of 7 possible positive test serologic patterns, only 4 were seen (Figure 1); antibodies against both GPIIb/IIIa and GPIb/IX were required for the presence of antibodies against GPIa/IIa. A multinomial logistic regression model including disease severity, age, sex, duration of disease, and platelet count at time of APA assay found a statistically significant predictive relationship between an increasing number of positive antibodies and disease severity [relative to non-severe ITP, relative risk ratio for severe ITP and refractory ITP was 1.89 (P=0.001) and 2.38 (P=0.004), respectively, per one additional positive antibody, Figure 2]. Multiple logistic regression models including antibody positivity to each platelet glycoprotein (GPIIb/IIIa, GPIb/IX, or GPIa/IIa), age, sex, disease duration and splenectomy status found a significant predictive relation between presence of anti-GPIa/IIa and non-response to corticosteroid treatment (odds ratio, 0.082, P=0.008). No significant relation was found between an antibody and non-response to IVIG. Fifty patients had multiple (2 to 5) APA assays performed over months to years. In evaluation of serologic evolution over time, all 7 patients who entered clinical remission also converted from a positive to a negative serology; 22 patients had stable serologic findings over time; 5 patients had a reduction in number of positive antibodies; and 18 patients demonstrated evidence for epitope spreading, with an increase in the number of positive antibodies (Figure 3). The sensitivity of a positive APA assay for the presence of active ITP was 91%. The sensitivity and specificity of a negative APA assay for remission in a patient with previously confirmed ITP (N=40 assays in patients with clinical remission in the study) were 88% and 91%, respectively. Conclusions : The MAIPA-based direct APA assay is sensitive for the presence of active ITP in patients satisfying 2011 ASH diagnostic criteria. To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating that a higher number of positive glycoprotein-specific antibodies may predict for more severe disease as defined by 2011 ASH disease severity criteria. Anti-GPIa/IIa antibodies only occur in the setting of pre-existing positivity for both anti-GPIIb/IIIa and anti-GPIb/IX antibodies, possibly due to a distinctive sequence of epitope spreading. Serologic testing typically turns negative when a patient enters clinical remission. Disclosures Al-Samkari: Agios: Consultancy. Kuter:Novartis: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Syntimmune: Consultancy; Argenx: Consultancy; Dova Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; ONO: Consultancy; Amgen Inc.: Consultancy; Bioverativ: Consultancy, Research Funding; Principia: Research Funding; Rigel: Consultancy, Research Funding; BMS: Research Funding; Protalex: Research Funding.

El presente proyecto consistió en la implementación de un robot móvil autónomo capaz de facilitar el flujo de documentos entre las diferentes áreas de una empresa, universidad, etc. Este robot es capaz de navegar de manera completamente autónoma en ambientes reales tal como los ambientes del CTIC, FIM, FIEE, etc. Tan solo especificando el punto inicial, el mapa del ambiente de navegación, y el punto deseado, este robot es capaz de generar el camino óptimo para llegar a dicha meta, y luego seguir este camino con la capacidad de evitar obstáculos si estos se presentan. Dadas estas características, este robot se puede usar en aplicaciones logísticas en donde el robot debe llevar paquetes, cargas, etc., a algún punto especificado por el usuario. En el proyecto se tienen dos modelos, el primer robot llamado R2D2‐R1 puede llevar cargas de hasta 3kg, y el segundo robot llamado R2D2‐R2 puede llevar cargas de hasta 25kg. Cabe señalar que los algoritmos implementados en este proyecto representan el estado del arte del campo de la robótica autónoma, y su desempeño se ha comprobado en las diversas pruebas de navegación realizadas en ambientes de la UNI. Este proyecto contribuye a cumplir con la misión de la UNI en los temas de innovación y gestión tecnológica para contribuir al bienestar de la sociedad y desarrollo del país. Palabras clave.- Robot móvil, navegación autónoma, planificación de trayectorias, evitamiento de obstáculos, aplicaciones logísticas. ABSTRACT The present project is about the implementation of an autonomous mobile robot designed for logistic tasks in different areas of a company, university, etc. This robot is able to navigate autonomously in real environments, you just need to specify the initial position, the grip map of the world and the target locations, and the robot will generate automatically the optimal path to reach the target positions, and then will follow this path while avoiding obstacles such as persons, trash bins, etc. These characteristics allow that our robot can be used in logistic tasks where the robot needs to carry loads from one place to another. In this project we developed two robot models, the first one called R2d2‐R1 can carry loads of up to 3kg, and the second one called can carry loads of up to 25Kg. The algorithms implemented in this project represent the state‐of‐the‐car methods and its performance has been proved in the several experiments carried out with these two robots. Keywords.- Mobile robot, autonomous navigation, path planning, obstacle avoidance, logistic applications.

2011/2012
Oggi il mercato finanziario sta diventando parte integrante del nostro mondo: si parla sempre di più di borsa e di azioni e sempre più persone hanno a che fare con questa realtà. Questa evoluzione ha sicuramente dei lati positivi dovuti al supporto che l’espansione del mercato finanziario dà all’economia reale, c’è anche però un rovescio della medaglia che consiste nelle situazioni “pericolose” dovute ai comportamenti irrazionali dei possessori di titoli conseguenti a dure crisi che colpiscono il sistema. Questi comportamenti non del tutto razionali sono dovuti all’inesperienza di una parte di quelle persone che operano sul mercato, che possono essere trascinati dall’entusiasmo o dal terrore che gira attorno a questo mondo. Azioni che alle volte possono essere alimentate dalle informazioni distribuite dai media. Questa condotta congiunta a motivi di natura reale può portare a situazioni molto dannose, che diventano però redditizie per chi riesce a carpirle, che si possono verificare nel mercato finanziario: le bolle speculative. Con bolla speculativa si intende il sentiero esplosivo che si forma nel prezzo di un bene e che lo porta, progressivamente sempre più distante dai valori compatibili con le fondamentali economiche dello stesso, dove con fondamentali economiche ci si riferisce a quelle particolari ragioni economiche che sottostanno al movimento di un prezzo. Quando le quotazioni di Borsa capitalizzano aspettative impossibili da misurare di possono formare bolle speculative, destinate a scoppiare , dato che non tutte le iniziative prese dagli investitori avranno successo. Il fenomeno delle bolle speculative solitamente viene visto come un’anomalia di mercato legata più alla componente psicologica che a quella razionale. Di solito un nuovo oggetto di investimento suscita molto interesse, o si verifica un rinnovato interesse per qualcosa di già esistente e consolidato, che già in partenza raccoglie in sé la componente speculativa. Viene quindi messo in risalto il grado di elevata diffusione del bene oggetto di speculazione. La gran parte delle volte sono, infatti, coinvolti beni di utilizzo comune e caratterizzati da un elevato grado si pervasività. Quello che porta le bolle speculative a svilupparsi sono quindi l’interesse per un nuovo oggetto di investimento collegato ad una componente speculativa, l’entrata nel mercato è spinta dalle aspettative di guadagno, senza preoccuparsi delle ragioni che hanno portato i primi rialzi, il tutto porta ad un effetto positivo secondario dovuto all’affacciarsi di investitori inesperti sul mercato. Di conseguenza ci saranno nuove società che vogliono sfruttare le occasioni offerte da questa euforia del mercato e un eccessivo sfruttamento della leva finanziaria. Tutto questo porta ad un abbassamento della liquidità presente nel sistema economico e ad un contestuale aumento dei tassi d’interesse e all’incapacità di pagare debiti e rendite. Questa situazione porta l’economia in una fase di ristrettezza finanziaria e quando l’unica via di uscita per pagare i debiti è la vendita, scoppia la bolla speculativa e si assiste quindi ad un’inversione di tendenza dei prezzi, che porta a grosse perdite per tutti coloro che possiedono quelle determinate azioni nel loro portafoglio. La possibilità di descrivere con sufficiente sicurezza il percorso che conduce dalla formazione alla fine di una bolla speculativa è supportata dalla casta casistica riscontrabile nella storia. La teoria delle bolle speculative è infatti fondata sulla rilevazione e sull’analisi di quanto accaduto nei secoli passati fino ad oggi, a intervalli più o meno regolari, nell’economia. Nel corso della storia di sono verificati diversi casi di bolle speculative. Il caso più incredibile fu quello dei tulipani nell’Olanda del 1600, la cosiddetta “Tulipomania”, la passione che il popolo nutriva per questi fiori e l’incertezza che circondava il loro colore portò a credere che acquistarne fosse un buon investimento. Molte altre ondate speculative si sono susseguite nei secoli successivi, da quella della Compagnia dei Mari del Sud nel 1700 alle ferrovie inglesi nel 1800. Ma quella che più di ogni altra ha lasciato un segno indelebile nella storia e nell’economia è il crack di Wall Street nel 1929, con la grande depressione che la seguì. Tra le altre ondate speculative con ripercussioni a livello globale, vanno ricordate quelle dei junk bond americani, la grande bolla immobiliare giapponese degli anni Ottanta e l’ondata speculativa che ha investito il mercato dei titoli tecnologici alla fine degli anni Novanta. Quest’ultima ha rappresentato uno dei casi più limpidi di valutazione irrazionale dei prezzi delle azioni. L’avvento di internet, con tutte le sue implicazioni, ha fatto presagire agli operatori del settore la possibilità di ottenere profitti altissimi, tanto da far parlare di New Economy. È arrivata poi la bolla causata dall’incremento dei prezzi degli immobili, cresciuta a causa dei crediti concessi dalle banche a soggetti che non avevano reddito sufficiente per restituire il mutuo, il quale fondava la sua garanzia sulla sola crescita del valore dell’immobile. A questa bolla si è poi sovrapposta quella del petrolio e delle materie prime, legata all’aumentata domanda di questi prodotti. Si cercherà in questo lavoro di analizzare i comportamenti anomali dei mercati finanziari, con particolare attenzione agli eventi speculativi, evidenziando i limiti della teoria dell’efficienza, studiando da vicino il fenomeno delle bolle speculative, intese come effetti di diverse patologie del mercato e dell’economia in generale. Analizzando i moventi della speculazione alla luce di tutti i fattori che sono alla base dei principali tipi di deviazione dalla teoria di funzionamento del mercato. Effettuando una stima econometria si cercherà di capire se esiste una correlazione tra le bolle speculative ed il rapporto prezzi/utili che possa essere riscontrato nelle diverse occasioni in cui si sono presentate delle bolle nel corso della storia economica recente.
XXIV Ciclo
1983

La tesi riguarda un’analisi, condotta in prospettiva didattica, della mappa logistica come modello di sistema complesso e sviluppa, a partire da questa, una riflessione interdisciplinare, individuando i contributi che la matematica, la fisica e l’informatica offrono per la comprensione del modello. La tesi è strutturata in tre capitoli. Nel primo capitolo si presentano i concetti di interdisciplinarità e di sistema complesso partendo da un’analisi della letteratura. Quindi si cercano relazioni concettuali fra i due temi e si inquadra il lavoro della tesi all’interno di un progetto europeo sulla formazione interdisciplinare dei futuri insegnanti denominato IDENTITIES. Nel secondo capitolo si analizza il modello di mappa logistica e si mostra come da un’equazione differenziale semplice possono conseguire numerose proprietà che fanno della mappa logistica un modello di sistema complesso. Nel terzo capitolo si guarda al problema della mappa logistica da tre diversi punti di vista disciplinari: matematico, fisico-applicativo e informatico-computazionale. Dopodiché si mostrano le interrelazioni tra i diversi punti di vista disciplinari e la ricostruzione del quadro complessivo che tali ricongiungimenti portano. Si conclude discutendo le potenzialità didattiche di un’analisi interdisciplinare della mappa logistica al fine di sviscerarne le proprietà che la rendono un modello di sistema complesso.

This Master thesis is an extension of my previous Bachelor´s thesis evaluating logistical framework and implementation of the warehouse management system at DHL Supply Chain s.r.o. and their customer Gross. It emphasizes the processes and optimization in stocks. The theoretical part describes the characteristics of the logistics, process maps, supply chain, SWOT analysis, employee satisfaction and information and communication technologies. In the practical part there are two processes developed into process maps, comparison of storage systems, new warehouse management system implementation progress and employee satisfaction. The result of these findings is the evaluation of the implementation of SAP and to propose a follow-up on the previous productivity.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
In this work we present a study of the logistic map xn+1 = rxn(1 xn) based on the supertracks, a set of continuous functions of the fixed parameter r recursively generated from the map s critical point Xmax = 1/2. This functions determine some iriternal and externa! boundaries of the orbit diagram of the map and provide information about the dynamics of the orbits. The iritersections of these functions can be periodic points or Misiurewicz points. We analyze the dynamics of the orbit in a particular Misiurewicz point, originated from the first coilision between the unstable fixed point and the chaotic attractor. As inedited results, we present algebraically the Lyapunov exponent and the invariant measure for this fixed parameter s value r. Algebraical orbits from the birth and the death of the famous period 3 window are presented as inedited result too.
Neste trabalho apresentamos um estudo do mapa logístico xn + 1 = rxn(1 xn) através do formalismo de supertracks, um conjunto de funções contínuas do parâmetro fixo r geradas recursivamente a partir do ponto crítico do mapa Xmax = 1/2. Essas funções determinam algumas fronteiras internas e externas no diagrama de bifurcação do mapa e fornecem informações sobre a dinâmica das órbitas. As interseções dessas funções podem ser pontos periódicos ou pontos de Misiurewicz. Analisamos a dinâmica da órbita num ponto de Misiurewicz em particular, originado da primeira colisão do ponto fixo instável com o atrator caótico. Como resultados inéditos, apresentamos de forma algébrica o expoente de Lyapunov e a medida invariante para este valor do parâmetro r. As órhitas algébricas do nascimento e da morte da famosa janela de período 3 são também ineditamente apresentados.

This Master's thesis deals with the optimization of the material flow between two areas of the production plant of the selected company. At the beginning of the thesis there is shown theoretical framework which is needed for subsequent analysis and determination of the proposals to improvement. In this part there is pointed out to the understanding of the process and the various concepts related to the process management. Furthermore, for the purposes of the application part there are selected and analyzed specific tools of lean manufacturing. These include for example the spaghetti diagram, the product / process matrix and the value stream mapping as the essential tool of this thesis. All this is complemented by ABC analysis. After that these methods are also applied in the practical part for solving the current project in the selected company. At first in solving the project there is dealt with the determination of the most problematic material flow between two areas of production plant. Then there is suggested the optimization solutions and all of this is also complemented by the economic evaluation of the whole project.

The diploma thesis is focused on the use of heuristic and metaheuristic methods to stabilization and controlling the selected systems distinguished by the deterministic chaos behavior. There are discussed parameterization of chosen optimization methods, which are the genetic algorithm, simulated annealing and pattern search. The thesis also introduced the suitable controlling methods and the definition of the objective function. In the theoretical part of the thesis there is a brief introduction to the deterministic chaos theory. The next chapters describes the most common and deployed methods in~the~control theory, especially OGY and Pyragas methods. The practical part of the thesis is divided into two chapters. The first one describes the~stabilization of the artifical chaotic systems with the time delayed Pyragas method - TDAS and its modification ETDAS. The second chapter shows the real chaotic system control. The Duffing oscillator system was chosen to serve this purpose.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the material flow in a company located at the second stage of the supply. Material flow is monitored in terms of logistics. The focus becomes reducing production lead times due to optimized inventory. In the theoretical section briefly summarizes the nature of material flow and the means used to optimize inventory. The content of the practical part is a detailed conflict of manufacturing and non-manufacturing operations, which will be the basis for possible suggestions to improve all material flow.

Control theory of complex systems by utilization of artificial intelligent algorithms is relatively new science field and it can be used in many areas of technical practise. Best known algorithms to solved similar tasks are genetic algorithm, differential evolution, HC12 Nelder-Mead method, fuzzy logic and grammatical evolution. Complex solution is presented at selected examples from mathematical nonlinear systems to examples of anthems design and stabilization of deterministic chaos. The goal of this thesis is present examples of implementation and utilization of artificial algorithms by multi-objective optimization. To achieve optimal results is used designed software solution by multi-platform application, which used Matlab and Java interfaces. The software solution integrate every algorithms of this thesis to complex solution and it extends possible application of those approaches to real systems and practical world.

Mestrado Bolonha em Actuarial Science
Tropical cyclones have enormous destructive potential. In 2018 continental Por- tugal has been affected by hurricane Leslie, the weather-related event having the highest impact ever on the property portfolio of the portuguese insurance company Fidelidade, causing several millions euros of losses. The fear is that, in the near future, the occurrence of this type of events increases in intensity and frequency, as a consequence of the climate change due to the warming of the planet. Quantifying the potential loss to which the property portfolio of Fidelidade could be subject to, helps in approximately determining premiums and capital reserves, as well as in defining the coverage to be provided. In this work, an approach to model the costs caused by a tropical cyclone extreme event is presented. The model is based on the losses incurred by the property port- folio of Fidelidade due to hurricane Leslie. By using the estimated models, it is possible to produce cost estimates for different scenarios of interest for the com- pany. The estimated models are also used to build a risk map for the councils of continental Portugal. The results obtained indicate that the councils with the estimated higher average cost ratio are all located along the coast of the country.
Ciclones tropicais têm um enorme potencial de destruição. Em 2018, Portugal continental foi atingido pelo furacão Leslie, que constituiu o fenómeno metereológico de maior impacto, até à data, no portfolio da companhia de seguros Fidelidade, causando milhões de euros em perdas. De facto, os ciclones tropicais têm um enorme potencial de destruição. A preocupação é que, em breve, a ocorrência deste tipo de fenómenos aumente em intensidade e frequência, como consequência das mudanças climáticas provocadas pelo aquecimento global. Quantificar a potencial perda à qual a companhia Fidelidade pode estar sujeita ajuda a determinar aproximadamente os prémios e provisões, assim como a definir a cobertura a ser providenciada. Neste trabalho, é apresentada uma abordagem para modelar os custos causados por um ciclone tropical extremo. O modelo é baseado nas perdas provocadas ao portfolio da Fidelidade pelo furacão Leslie. Ao usar os modelos, é possível produzir custos estimados para diferentes cenários de interesse da companhia. Os modelos estimados sã também utilizados para construir um mapa de risco para os conselhos de Portugal continental. Os resultados obtidos indicam que os conselhos com a maior taxa média de custos estimada estão localizados ao longo da costa do país.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The main topic of the thesis is the area of logistics and production with emphasis on saving time and place in the processing of order, the layout of machines, workplaces and warehouses in the production hall. The advantages and disadvantages were analyzed in the selected company, critical points were determined and solutions were designed, comparison and evaluation were carried out with the original condition. The work is based on the theoretical foundations of the subject, collected data from its own investigations and observations of the analyzed processes.

The chapter provides an approach and issues for model-training using Logistic Regression. (1) Regression—key model qualities plus i) options and settings, and ii) outputs to be expected/demanded. (2) Variable selection—i) criteria; ii) automation; iii) stepwise review; iv) constraining betas, where coefficients do not make sense; v) stepping by Gini, model pruning. (3) Correlation checks—i) multicollinearity—checks of variance inflation factors; ii) correlations—further checks to guard against the inclusion of highly correlated variables. (4) Blockwise variable selection—treatment in groups: i) variable reduction; ii) staged, or hierarchical regression; iii) embedded, model outputs as predictors; iv) ensemble, using outputs of other models. (5) Multi-model comparisons—Lorenz curves and strategy curves, should choices not be clear. (6) Calibration—i) simple adjustment by a constant; ii) piecewise, varying adjustments by the prediction; iii) score and points—adjusting the final score or constituent points; iv) MAPA, for more complex situations