Dissertations / Theses: 'Macroeconomics of international trade'

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Gruber, Diego. "Essays in International Macroeconomics and Trade." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/116199.

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La tesis se divide en tres capítulos: En el capítulo 1 trato dos características de los modelos de ciclos económicos internacionales reales (IRBC) que chocan con lo que observamos en los datos: 1) correlaciones débiles o negativas entre los términos de intercambio y la producción, y 2) un aumento del consumo relativo de países en que los bienes se hacen relativamente más caros. En primer lugar demuestro que ambas contradicciones bien desaparecen o se vuelven mucho más débiles en los últimos años. Propongo un mecanismo capaz de generar endógenamente movimientos de los precios internacionales compatibles tanto con observaciones recientes (1999-2009) como menos recientes (1971-1998). En este mecanismo, las empresas que operan en un entorno de competencia monopolística ajustan el precio y la calidad de sus productos en respuesta a los shocks tecnológicos. Este modelo es consistente con observaciones ‘antiguas’ si los niveles de precios no se ajustan a la calidad. Durante muchos años, y especialmente después del informe de la comisión Boskin de 1996, los organismos de estadística han dedicado muchos esfuerzos a mejorar las metodologías de ajuste de precios por cambios en calidad. Si se aplican estos ajustes a los precios generados por el modelo, sus propiedades son similares a las de las observaciones ‘nuevas’. De acuerdo a la evidencia reciente alrededor del 90% del comercio internacional se basa en algún tipo de crédito. Sin embargo, la literatura actual no es concluyente sobre los efectos de la financiación del comercio sobre el comercio y la economía. En el capítulo 2 propongo (conjuntamente con Marta Arespa) un marco adecuado para explorar los vínculos entre el comercio y las finanzas basadas en un modelo internacional de ciclos reales, donde las empresas necesitan financiación externa para importar y pueden estar sujetas a restricciones financieras. Encontramos que los shocks de crédito no afectan a las propiedades dinámicas de la economía, pero tienen el potencial de causar desviaciones significativas en el comercio y el desempeño económico. La relación comercio-PIB cae después de un shock de crédito negativo, ya que la capacidad de las empresas extranjeras para la compra de bienes intermedios se ve afectada, causando pérdidas en la eficiencia y la producción. Sin embargo, obliga a una sustitución de la demanda hacia los bienes intermedios nacionales que limita el deterioro del PIB. Encontramos que los países con mayor desarrollo financiero comercian más, son más ricos y más estables en términos de PIB y consumo, como en los datos. Por último, el modelo aclara algunas contradicciones que persisten entre momentos teórícos del ciclo económico real y sus contrapartes empíricas. En el capítulo 3 pongo a prueba la importancia de la liberalización del comercio para el aumento de la desigualdad en la remuneración de los ejecutivos de empresa, considerando dos estrategias cuantitativas muy diferentes. El primero de ellos consiste en la calibración de una versión ligeramente modificada de un modelo de comercio internacional con empresas heterogéneas que permite la heterogeneidad de ingresos. El aumento en el comercio se produce una caída de las barreras comerciales, lo que genera cambios en la distribución del ingreso entre los directivos. Para la segunda estrategia utilizo datos a nivel de empresa y actividad económica para determinar si la compensación ejecutiva ha crecido más rápidamente en actividades en las que el comercio se ha expandido a un ritmo más rápido. Ambas estrategias sugieren que, contrariamente a lo que hacen suponer hallazgos recientes, la caída de las barreras comerciales no son una fuente importante de aumento de la desigualdad salarial entre ejecutivos.
The thesis is divided in three chapters: In chapter 1 I address two puzzling features of international real business cycles: 1) weak or negative correlations between the terms of trade and output, and 2) a rise in relative consumption for countries where goods become relatively more expensive. I show both puzzles either vanish or become much weaker in recent data. I propose a mechanism capable of endogenously generating international price movements that are consistent with both the “old” facts as well as the “new” facts. In this mechanism, firms operating in a monopolistically competitive environment adjust price and quality of their products in response to technological shocks. This model is consistent with the old facts if price levels are not adjusted for quality. For many years, and especially following the 1996 Boskin commission report, statistical agencies have devoted many efforts towards improving their quality-adjusting methodologies. If quality adjustments to price level calculations are introduced, the model’s properties are in line with the new facts. According to recent evidence around 90% of international trade relies on some form of credit. However, current literature is not conclusive on the effects of trade finance on trade and the economy. In chapter 2 I propose (jointly with Marta Arespa) a suitable framework to explore linkages between trade and finance based on an international RBC model, where firms require external finance to import and can be financially constrained. We find credit shocks do not affect the dynamic properties of the economy, but do have the potential to cause significant deviations in trade and economic performance. The trade-to-GDP ratio falls following a negative credit shock, as the capability of firms to purchase foreign intermediate goods is affected, causing losses in efficiency and production. However, it forces a demand substitution towards domestic intermediate goods that limits GDP deterioration. We find that financially developed countries trade more, are richer and more stable in terms of GDP and consumption, as in the data. Finally, the model sheds light on some persistent contradictions between theoretical business-cycle volatilities and their empirical counterparts In chapter 3 I test the importance of trade liberalization for the rise in executive compensation inequality by considering two very different quantitative strategies. The first of these consists on calibrating a slightly modified version of a model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that allows for income heterogeneity. Increases in trade follow a fall in trade barriers, generating shifts in the distribution of income among managers. For the second strategy I use firm and industry-level data to test whether executive compensation has risen more rapidly in industries where trade has expanded at a faster pace. Both of these strategies suggest that contrary to recent findings, falling trade barriers are not an important source of increasing pay inequality among executives.

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Mestieri, Martí (Mestieri Ferre). "Essays on macroeconomics and international trade." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/65489.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, June 2011.
"June 2011." Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references.
This thesis focuses on the study of different aspects of income inequality across and within countries. In the first chapter, I study how the optimal provision of human capital is distorted in the presence of borrowing constraints and private information on talent and wealth. It shows that elitist, non-merit based, access to higher education can be constrained optimal in poor and unequal countries. The second chapter documents how the IT revolution has changed the patterns of North-South trade and analyzes its effects on wage inequality. It provides theoretical and empirical results on wage polarization and a changes in the pattern of specialization. Finally, the third chapter provides a framework for estimating technological diffusion across countries. The framework is applied to study the diffusion of major technologies across the world since the Industrial Revolution. It is shown that differences in technology diffusion in the last two hundred years can account for two thirds of current income per capita differences.
by Martí Mestieri.
Ph.D.

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Heise, Sebastian. "Essays in Macroeconomics and International Trade." Thesis, Yale University, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10160862.

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Economic activity frequently takes place in markets that are subject to search frictions. To reduce search costs, agents often interact repeatedly with the same partner, for example through long-term employment contracts or in long-term business relationships. The main purpose of my dissertation is to study long-term relationships between firms. Chapters 1-2 use confidential, transaction-level import data from the U.S. Census to comprehensively analyze long-term business relationships, and use theory to illuminate their potential macroeconomic effects. Chapter 3 studies how labor market institutions affect worker-firm relationships, specifically the allocation of workers to firms.

In the first chapter of my dissertation, I investigate how long-term buyer-seller relationships affect price rigidity. Economists have long suspected that firm-to-firm relationships might increase price rigidity due to the use of explicit or implicit fixed-price contracts. I study the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate changes in the Census data and show that prices are in fact substantially more responsive to these cost shocks in older versus newly formed relationships. Based on additional stylized facts about the life cycle of relationships and interviews I conducted with purchasing managers, I develop a model in which a buyer-seller pair subject to persistent, stochastic shocks to production costs shares profit risk under limited commitment. Relationships that experience good shocks have lower costs, trade more, and survive longer, which generates the life cycle. Furthermore, since partners in older relationships on average enjoy a greater relationship surplus, alternative matches are less attractive to them, which enables the firms to share profit risk more completely by setting prices that are more responsive to shocks. Once structurally estimated, the model replicates the empirical correlation between relationship age and price flexibility. My results suggest that changes to the average length of relationships in the economy – e.g., in a recession, when the share of young relationships declines – can influence price flexibility and thus the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The second chapter (co-authored with Justin Pierce, Georg Schaur, and Peter Schott) examines how trade barriers affect firms' relationships with suppliers. In our theoretical framework, firms can conduct purchases under two opposing systems. Under the "Japanese" system, buyers motivate sellers to maintain product quality via small, frequent orders at a price above seller's cost and by promising a continued relationship if the quality is good. Under the "American" system, buyers place large orders with the lowest cost bidder and quality is ensured via costly inspection. A lower probability of a trade war increases firms' incentives to switch to Japanese-style procurement since it makes long-term relationships more sustainable. We test the model's predictions using the Census data. We use a differences-in-differences strategy to exploit a shift in U.S. trade policy which eliminated the threat of a rise in U.S. tariffs for Chinese imports to potentially prohibitive levels. Consistent with our predictions, we find a shift of procurement practices towards the Japanese system after the policy change. The results suggest that trade agreements which allow firms to develop long-term relationships may give rise to a new source of welfare gains from trade associated with lower inventory and monitoring costs.

The third chapter of my dissertation (co-authored with Tommaso Porzio) focuses on worker-firm relationships. We investigate whether a change in labor market regulations can improve the allocative efficiency of worker-firm matches. We study this question using the German reunification as a natural experiment that exposed East Germany to Western-style institutions. Interpreting a firm's median wage as a measure of its inherent productivity, we use matched employer-employee data to examine the evolution of allocative efficiency, defined as the correlation between a firm's median wage and its number of workers. We find that East German allocative efficiency is significantly below West German efficiency levels even 20 years after the reunification, for two reasons. First, East German workers face a flatter job ladder: when moving job-to-job, the difference between their previous firm's median wage and their new firm's median wage is smaller than in the West. Second, East German workers more frequently become unemployed. We rationalize our findings in a job ladder model with low and high productivity firms in which East Germany has a higher risk of job termination than the West. This higher risk of employment relationship separation lowers the incentive for high productivity firms to post vacancies, which flattens the job ladder. Our work highlights that policies shifting a country's labor market institutions towards Western policies may fail to generate large efficiency gains when the shift is accompanied by a rise in unemployment.

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Lyon, Spencer G. "Essays in Macroeconomics and International Trade." Thesis, New York University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10936066.

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This dissertation is made up of three chapters, each of seeks to understand a different aspect of the modern, global economy and the how considering international linkages and issues has implications for micro-and-macro-economic outcomes.

Chapter 1, 'Redistributing the Gains From Trade Through Progressive Taxation' asks the questions “Should a nation's tax system become more progressive as it opens to trade? Does opening to trade change the benefits of a progressive tax system?” In this chapter, Mike Waugh and I answer these question within a standard incomplete markets model with frictional labor markets and Ricardian trade. Consistent with empirical evidence, adverse shocks to comparative advantage lead to labor income losses for import-competition-exposed workers; with incomplete markets, these workers are imperfectly insured and experience welfare losses. A progressive tax system is valuable, as it substitutes for imperfect insurance and redistributes the gains from trade. However, it also reduces the incentives for labor to reallocate away from comparatively disadvantaged locations. We find that optimal progressivity should increase with openness to trade with a ten percentage point increase in openness necessitating a five percentage point increase in marginal tax rates for those at the top of the income distribution.

Chapter 2, 'Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models', was written with Dave Backus, Axelle Ferriere, and Chase Coleman. In this chapter we study how in models with recursive preferences, endogenous variation in Pareto weights would be interpreted as wedges from the perspective of a frictionless model with additive preferences. We describe the behavior of the relative Pareto weight in a two-country world and explore its interaction with consumption and the real exchange rate.

Chapter 3, 'Demand Shocks, Customer Capital and Exporter Dynamics,' is co-authored with Spencer Lyon. Recent empirical research has documented a rich set of facts about the lifecycle dynamics of individual firms, and particularly their dynamics in export markets. Most trade models abstract from these features of the data. We develop a model that bridges this divide and is capable of studying the effects of changes in trade policies on firm dynamics, and assessing how accounting for these effects changes the aggregate effects of such policy changes. The model is based on Melitz (2003) and can generate these dynamics as a result of firms facing uncertainty about their demand which they slowly resolve through selling their goods, and a demand side friction that causes customer accumulation to be a gradual process.

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Mitka, Malgorzata. "Essays in international macroeconomics and trade." Thesis, University of York, 2014. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9241/.

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Motivated by recent monetary expansion in the United States in the aftermath of the 2007-8 financial crisis, we use a New Keynesian three-country Center-Periphery model to define a game between policymakers in emerging economies linked to some large industrial economy via the exchange rate. We derive welfare-based payoffs to study the policy implications of monetary expansion in the US. We highlight cases in which policy coordination between emerging economies may improve their welfare. We identify cases in which countries may prefer to manipulate the exchange rate and resist currency appreciation. We then propose a framework based on results from a Global Vector Autoregressive Model. This approach allows us to treat the emerging economies according to the observed data. We use US, Chinese and Brazilian data on consumption, output and money supply between 1994 and 2014. We perform counterfactual analysis allowing to determine the welfare outcomes of joint monetary expansions: in the US and China, in the US and Brazil, and in all three countries. Our results are relevant for the ongoing discussion on the benefits of policy coordination and the spillover effects of monetary policy of a large industrial country on emerging economies and suggest that this framework can be used as a tool to coordinate countries on welfare-superior outcomes relative to Nash equilibrium. In the third essay we consider an N-country two-good Cobb-Douglas model with country specific preferences and arbitrary endowments. This allows us to look at the interactions between asymmetric countries. We provide a general existence result which we then apply to our specific endowment economy, and provide conditions on the prim- itives of the model that ensure the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium. We show that Nash equilibria with prohibitive tariffs cannot arise.

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Sikdar, Shiva. "Essays in macroeconomics, international trade and the environment." [Ames, Iowa : Iowa State University], 2008.

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Guo, Hao. "GEOGRAPHY, TRADE, AND MACROECONOMICS." UKnowledge, 2017. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/economics_etds/31.

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This dissertation studies the effects of external integration and internal liberalization on the economic geography within a country when regions within the country have different access to the world market. The first paper introduces internal geography into the Melitz (2003) model to examine how external and internal liberalizations affect the economic geography within a country. By dividing a country into a coastal region and an inland region, the model shows that trade leads the coastal region have a higher than proportional share of industry, and causes firms in the coastal region to be larger and more productive than firms in the inland region. Both external and internal liberalizations encourage industry agglomeration in the coastal region. However, external trade liberalization leads to firm divergence, and internal liberalization leads to firm convergence, between coastal and inland regions. This allows me to test the relative importance of internal and external liberalization. Using Chinese data from 1998 to 2007, I find that the manufacturing sector grew faster in the coastal region than in the inland region after the WTO accession in 2001. Firms also converged between coastal and inland regions, indicating that internal liberalization had stronger effects during this period. In the second paper, I document large economic discontinuities across the east/non-east provincial borders in China and argue that the border effects are largely due to preferential policies that give the east advantages in international trade and economic development. Using counties contiguous to the borders of 4 plain provinces, I find that manufacturing activities (output, employment, and export) increase abruptly from the west to the east of the borders. The counties in the east also have a lower share of agricultural population and a higher share of output by foreign firms. The economic discontinuities are larger for non-state sectors than for the state sector and are stronger in non-mountain regions than in mountain regions. The large economic discontinuities are unlikely to be explained by geographic and cultural differences across the borders, and can be accounted for by the policy differences between east and non-east provinces. I find that the openness level and the index of market liberalization can account for a large part of the east/non-east divide. In the third paper, I use the ending of the Multi-fiber Arrangement (MFA) to study the effects of an external trade liberalization on Chinese textile and clothing industry. After the Multi-fiber Arrangement ended in 2005, Chinese textile and clothing exports in products that faced quotas before experienced significant boom. The effects are stronger in the coastal region than in the inland region. Using distance to the seaport as a measure of world-market access, I show that the external trade liberalization (the quota removal) had larger effects on regions with better access to the world market. A further analysis of firm entry shows that the large adjustment of export after the expiration of the MFA was largely due to destination and product expansions by existing firms.

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Cacciatore, Matteo. "The Macroeconomics of International Trade, Regulation, and Labor Markets." Thesis, Boston College, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/1390.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
This thesis studies the role of product and labor market frictions for the propagation of shocks in closed and open economy. The first chapters focuses on the consequences of relaxing product and labor regulation for macroeconomic outcomes. Specifically, we study long and short to medium run effects of deregulation by developing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model featuring endogenous producer entry and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We calibrate the model to reproduce salient features of countries belonging to the Euro Area which are characterized by large barriers to entry, firing restrictions and unemployment benefits. We analyze the effects of single policy changes and a global reform in which product and labor market regulations are set at the current U.S. level. Three main results emerge. First, we show that deregulation -- either partial or global - would trigger adjustment costs in the short run, increasing unemployment and reducing consumption. Long run welfare gains would make up for short run costs. Second, reforms are interdependent as the effects of a policy change in one market depend upon the level of regulation prevailing in the other. Third, regulation has important consequences for the business cycle properties of the economy. After a full deregulation, the Euro Area would become more responsive to exogenous disturbances but the absorption of shocks would be quicker. Our findings suggest that concerns about the negative effect of strict regulation for the speed of recovery from downturns could be well placed. The second chapter studies how country-specific labor market frictions -- hiring and firing restrictions and protection of unemployed workers -- affect the consequences of trade integration. We address this question in a two-country model of trade and macroeconomic dynamics with heterogeneous firms, endogenous producer entry, and search and matching frictions in the labor market. We study the dynamic effects of trade integration on unemployment and economic activity and the business cycle implications of stronger trade linkages. The model introduces a novel source of amplification and propagation of domestic and international shocks, as fluctuations in job creation and destruction affect the profitability of producer entry into domestic and export markets. Structural differences in labor markets translate into asymmetric entry and export dynamics across countries. As trade barriers are reduced, unemployment initially rises (falls) in countries with more rigid (flexible) labor markets. In the long run, average productivity gains ensure positive employment effects in both countries. Trade is always beneficial for welfare, but the economy with a rigid labor market gains less. Integration has also important business cycle consequences. In contrast to benchmark international real business cycle models, but consistent with the data, the model predicts that trade integration leads to increased business cycle synchronization. Volatility increases in the country with a rigid labor market, but it falls for the flexible partner
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2010
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Alder, Simeon David. "Essays on macroeconomics." Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1925787821&sid=10&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.

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Uysal, Pinar. "Essays in Macroeconomics." Thesis, Boston College, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/760.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Chapter 1: Foreign Direct Investment and Contract Enforcement Many developing countries are financially constrained and therefore have to rely on international capital flows to finance economic activity. Empirical evidence shows that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a percentage of total capital flows is higher for less developed countries compared to more developed countries. This chapteruses a dynamic contracting model with human capital to explain why less developed countries receive a greater percentage of capital flows as FDI. I analytically show that countries that are financially constrained have a higher share of FDI in total capital flows, and that the share of FDI in total capital flows is increasing in human capital flows. In addition, the positive association between the share of FDI in total capital flows and human capital flows is decreasing in the degree of financial constraints. I construct a measure of intangible assets of FDI and find empirical support for the analytical results. Chapter 2: Trade Liberalization, Firm Heterogeneity, and Unemployment: An Empirical Investigation This chapter is a joint work with Yoto V. Yotov. We provide empirical evidence for the interaction between firm-level total factor productivity and trade liberalization as key determinants of firm-level job destruction caused by trade. Employing US firm-level data, we find strong empirical support for the following: a) All else equal, a one percent increase in total factor firm productivity decreases trade-induced layoffs by 32%; b) An additional percent of trade liberalization increases the number of firm-level trade-induced layoffs by 2%; c) Trade liberalization results in an increase in the minimum level of productivity required for domestic production; d) Trade liberalization lowers the minimum productivity threshold required for exporting; e) The increase due to trade liberalization in the minimum productivity threshold for domestic production is larger than the absolute decrease in the export productivity threshold. Chapter 3: Do Audit Fees Influence Credit Risk and Asymmetric Information Problems? Evidence from the Syndicated Loan Market This chapter is a joint work with Lewis W. Gaul. We examine whether an increase in the demand for auditing services is associated with a decrease in borrowers' credit risk and asymmetric information problems in the syndicated loan market. In the syndicated loan market, potential accounting errors exacerbate credit risk and asymmetric information problems. The purpose of financial statement audits is to provide reasonable assurance that accounting records are free from material errors. We hypothesize that if audit fees face an upward sloping supply curve for auditing services, an increase in the demand for auditing services increases both the equilibrium price and quantity of auditing services purchased. We interpret the equilibrium quantity of auditing services as the number of auditing hours billed and the price of auditing services as the hourly fee. We assert that an increase in the quantity of auditing services purchased reduces the likelihood of an accounting error because auditors exert more effort verifying the accuracy of accounting records. We present empirical evidence that a demand-induced increase in audit fees is associated with syndicated loans with lower interest rate spreads and shorter maturity lengths, which we interpret as evidence consistent with the assertion that these audit fee increases reduce credit-risk and asymmetric information problems. We empirically identify an increase in the demand for auditing services with instrumental variables that are intended to capture shifts in the demand curve for auditing services, rather than shifts in the supply curve for auditing services. In addition, we find that audit fees are positively associated with the number of lenders in loan syndicates, but are unable to attribute this association to an increase in the demand for auditing services
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2009
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Cimoli, Mario. "Technology, international trade and development : a North-South perspective." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.332842.

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Barattieri, Alessandro. "Essays in international economics and macroeconomics." Thesis, Boston College, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104399.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Thesis advisor: Susanto Basu
The present dissertation is composed by three essays. The first essay is titled ``Comparative Advantage, Service Trade, and Global Imbalances''. The large current account deficit of the U.S. is the result of a large deficit in the goods balance and a modest surplus in the service balance. The opposite is true for Japan, Germany and China. Moreover, I document the emergence from the mid-nineties of a strong negative relation between specialization in export of services and current account balances in a large sample of OECD and developing countries. Starting from these new stylized facts, I propose in this essay a ``service hypothesis'' for global imbalances, a new explanation based on the interplay between the U.S. comparative advantage in services and the asymmetric trade liberalization process in goods trade versus service trade that took place in the last 15 years. I use a structural gravity model to quantify the extent of this asymmetry. I show that a simple two-period model can rationalize the emergence of current account deficits in the presence of such asymmetric liberalization. The key inter-temporal mechanism is the asymmetric timing of trade policies, which affects savings decisions. Finally, I explore the quantitative relevance of this explanation for global imbalances. A multi-period version of the model, fed with the asymmetric trade liberalization path found in the data, generates a current account deficit of about 1% of GDP (roughly 20% of what was observed in the U.S. in 2006). The policy implications of the analysis proposed could be relevant for the evolution of the WTO DOHA Development Round. A major focus on services, in fact, could help expanding the ``policy space'' faced by the negotiators, possibly increasing the likelihood of a successful conclusion of the round. Moreover, this paper inform also the recent debate about the need of a revaluation of the yuan. Allowing the U.S. to increase its exports of services (not necessarily to China) might help alleviating global imbalances even without movements in the exchange rates. The second essay is titled ``Estimating Trade and Investment Flows: Partners and Volumes''. I present empirical evidence from a large sample of countries for the period 2000-2006. Bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are almost never observed in the absence of bilateral trade flows, thus configuring an order of trade and investment flows. I document a similar pattern using bilateral foreign affiliate sales (FAS), aggregating them up from a large firm level dataset (ORBIS), which includes over 45,000 firms. I propose a model where heterogeneous firms face a proximity-concentration tradeoff when they decide whether to serve foreign markets through export or FDI. I derive theory-based gravity-type equations for the aggregate bilateral trade and foreign affiliate sales (FAS) flows. I then suggest a two-stage estimation procedure. In the first stage, a ordered Probit model is used to retrieve consistent estimates of the terms needed to correct the flows equations for heterogeneity and selection. In the second stage, a maximum likelihood estimator is applied to the corrected trade and FAS equations. The main results of the analysis are as follows: 1) The impact of distance, border and regional trade agreements on bilateral foreign affiliate sales becomes substantially smaller after controlling for selection and firms' heterogeneity (hence separating the impact on the extensive versus the intensive margin). 2) The same ``attenuation'' result is found also for the trade equations, consistently with HMR. 3) When FAS are observed, failing to take this into account when correcting for heterogeneity and selection in the trade equations leads to differences in the estimated coefficients. The third essay is titled ``Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages'', and is co-authored with Susanto Basu and Peter Gottshalk. Nominal wage stickiness is an important component of recent medium-scale structural macroeconomic models, but to date there has been little microeconomic evidence supporting the assumption of sluggish nominal wage adjustment. We present evidence on the frequency of nominal wage adjustment using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for the period 1996-1999. The SIPP provides high-frequency information on wages, employment and demographic characteristics for a large and representative sample of the US population. The main results of the analysis are as follows. 1) After correcting for measurement error, wages appear to be very sticky. In the average quarter, the probability that an individual will experience a nominal wage change is between 5 and 18 percent, depending on the samples and assumptions used. 2) The frequency of wage adjustment does not display significant seasonal patterns. 3) There is little heterogeneity in the frequency of wage adjustment across industries and occupations 4) The hazard of a nominal wage change first increases and then decreases, with a peak at 12 months. 5) The probability of a wage change is positively correlated with the unemployment rate and with the consumer price inflation rate. To a certain extent, the three essays presented here are self-contained and deal with three different issues regarding international economics and macroeconomics. Going to a deeper level, however, the essays are linked by a common feature: they are three examples of economic research across fields. The first essay, in fact, is an example of the growing fields at the edge between international trade and international macroeconomics. While the trade of goods and services and the dynamics of macroeconomic variables such as the current account are highly interconnected in the real world, these two fields have been characterized by a large divide in the last thirty years in the economic literature. The second essay is an example of a joint study of international trade and investment flows. Also in this case, while conceptually clearly interconnected, these topics have been usually studied separately by the economic literature. Finally, the third essay is an example of research across fields (labor economics and macroeconomics) and techniques (micro-level analysis informing macroeconomic models). In this last case, macroeconomists were interested in estimating certain wage dynamics parameters highly used in macro models. However, they were largely unaware of the fact that labor economists had the data to answer those research questions. On the other hand, the labor economists had the data, but not the questions. I hope that these essays might help increasing further the awareness that more communication between economists working in different fields can bring to valuable insights
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2011
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Ghosh, Swati R. "International policy coordination under uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.335669.

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Mann, Samuel. "Essays in international macroeconomics and finance." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279973.

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This collection of essays examines the topic of macroeconomic stabilisation in an international context, focusing on monetary policy, capital controls and exchange rates. Chapter 1, written in collaboration with Giancarlo Corsetti and Joao Duarte, reconsiders the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions. In Chapter 2, I build a two-country, two-good model to examine the welfare effects of capital controls, finding that under certain circumstances, a shut-down in asset trade can be a Pareto improvement. Further, I examine the robustness of the result to parameter changes, explore a wider set of policy instruments and confront computational issues in this class of international macroeconomic models. I document that within an empirically relevant parameter span for the trade elasticity, the gains from capital controls might be significantly larger than suggested by previous contributions. Moreover, I establish that a refined form of capital controls in the shape of taxes and tariffs cannot improve upon the outcome under financial autarky. Finally, results show that the conjunction of pruning methods and endogenous discount factors can remove explosive behaviour from this class of models and restore equilibrating properties. In Chapter 3, I use a panel of 20 emerging market currencies to assess whether a model that combines fundamental and non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting approaches can successfully predict risk premia (i.e. currency excess returns) over the short horizon. In doing so, I aim to overcome three main shortcomings of earlier research: i) Sensitivity to the chosen sample period; ii) seemingly arbitrary selection of explanatory variables that differs from currency to currency; and iii) difficulty in interpreting forecasts beyond the numerical signal. Based on a theoretical model of currency risk premia, I use real exchange rate strength combined with indicators for carry, momentum and economic sentiment to homogeneously forecast risk premia across all 20 currencies in the sample at a monthly frequency. In doing so, the model remains largely agnostic about structural choices, keeping arbitrarily imposed restrictions to a minimum. Results from portfolio construction suggest that returns are significant and robust both across currencies as well as over time, with Sharpe Ratios in out-of-sample tests above 0.7.

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15

Bems, Rudolfs. "Essays in international macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Samhällsekonomi (S), 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-518.

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The four essays included in this dissertation are in the field of open economy Macroeconomics. Essays I, II and IV deal with a work-horse model in this field – a two-sector small open economy growth model with traded and nontraded goods. Writing down such a model requires an assumption about the role of traded and nontraded goods in domestic consumption and investments. While several empirical studies have looked at the consumption side, a systematic examination of the role of traded and nontraded goods in investments is missing. Essay I aims to fill this gap. Drawing on extensive empirical evidence, we show that aggregate investment expenditure shares on traded and nontraded goods are very similar in rich and poor countries. Furthermore, the two expenditure shares have remained close to constant over time, with the average nontraded expenditure share varying between 0.54-0.60 over the 1960-2002 period. Combined with the fact that the relative price of nontraded goods correlates positively with income and exhibits large differences across space and time, our findings suggest that investment can be modeled using the Cobb-Douglas aggregator. The results of this essay offer a new restriction for the two-sector growth model, which can alter the conclusions drawn from the model. To demonstrate this, we apply the new restriction to a study by Hsieh and Klenow (2003), which argues that differences in relative productivity between traded and nontraded sectors, i.e., the Balassa-Samuelson effect, is the main cause of higher PPP-adjusted investment rates in rich countries. With the restriction imposed on the model, no more than 25 percent of the differences in PPP-adjusted investment rates between rich and poor counties can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. In Essays II and IV the same two-sector growth model is put to the test using the recent economic developments in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Essay II investigates whether the two-sector growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic countries. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995-2001 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. According to the model, trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010. Essay IV starts by summarizing empirical regularities for the key aggregate real sector variables in the eight countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that, following the reforms in the early 1990s, real sector developments in all eight countries exhibit remarkable similarities. Interestingly, this is the case despite the fact that different reform policies were pursued in several dimensions (e.g., privatization, nominal exchange rate). Next, we show that a calibrated two-sector small open economy growth model can account for most of the real sector adjustments in early post-reform years. Empirical studies have found rapid traded sector productivity growth in Central and Eastern European countries over the last decade. When traded sector productivity growth is added to the model, it captures the development in all key real sector variables during the post-reform period. Finally, Essay III contributes to the study of financial crises in emerging markets. In contrast to the other essays, this paper develops a highly stylized theoretical model that allows us to study analytically government response to financial crises. In particular, Essay III develops a framework for analyzing optimal government bailout policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where financial crises are exogenous. Important elements of the model are that private borrowers internalize only part of the social cost of foreign borrowing in the emerging market and that the private sector is illiquid in the event of a crisis. The distinguishing feature of our paper is that it addresses the optimal bailout policy in an environment where there are both costs and benefits of bailouts, and where bailout guarantees potentially distort investment decisions in the private sector. We show that it is always optimal to commit to a bailout policy that only partially protects investment against inefficient liquidation, both in a centralized economy and a market economy. Due to overinvestment in the market economy, the government's optimal level of bailout guarantees is lower than in the social optimum. Further, we show that, in contrast to a social planner, the government in the market economy should optimally bail out a smaller fraction of private investments when the probability of a crisis is higher.
Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005 S. i-x: sammanfattning, s. 1-187: 4 uppsatser

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Schwarz, Lukas Marinus. "Pecuniary Externalities in Labor Markets and Questions in Macroeconomics and International Trade." Thesis, Harvard University, 2016. http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:33493425.

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I analyze how various types of structural change including labor market reform, trade liberalization, product market reform and technological progress affect labor markets in closed and open economies. In order to do this, I propose a model of labor markets which captures frictions and pecuniary externalities as well as different types of labor market reform in a very general way. Embedding this framework into general equilibrium models with imperfect competition in product markets and endogenous entry I find that the strength of pecuniary externalities in labor markets is absolutely crucial: In closed economies sufficiently strong pecuniary externalities in labor markets require “supply-side approaches” to labor market reform to raise aggregate employment, while “demand-side approaches” are required otherwise. Product market deregulation and technological progress raise aggregate employment in closed economies only if pecuniary externalities in labor markets are sufficiently strong. Similar results hold in open economies although terms-of-trade-effects may slightly change the picture depending on their strength. Further, distributional conflicts both within and across countries may arise from those effects, but they can be avoided by means of multilateral coordination. Trade liberalization increases aggregate employment only if pecuniary externalities in labor markets are sufficiently strong. Firm heterogeneity amplifies both gains and losses from trade liberalization. Sufficiently strong pecuniary externalities in labor markets also make positive international spill-overs of unilateral structural change more likely. I present my results in terms of threshold-rules for the strength of pecuniary externalities in labor markets and I provide careful analyses of what determines the size of the threshold for each question I address: Generally, the strengths of product-variety-effects and of a mark-ups-channel working through product markets as well as the importance of the extensive margin of production play a central role, but both the importance of network production structures and of international trade matter, too.
Economics

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17

Uddin, Syed A. "Three Essays on International Trade and Finance." FIU Digital Commons, 2017. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3480.

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This dissertation is composed of three essays at the intersection of international trade and finance. In the first chapter, I measure exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for value-added exports, where intermediate input requires sharing among countries in a back-and-forth manner for producing a single final product. I derive an estimating equation for ERPT and value-added trade following a partial equilibrium model, which also leads to decomposition of the trade elasticity into the own price effect and the price index effects. From the empirical estimation, I find that ignoring the value-added trade will cause a systematic upward bias in the estimation of ERPT. I also find that there exists substantial heterogeneity in pass-through rates across sectors: sectors with high-integration into global markets functions with a lower rate of exchange in comparison to sectors with less integration. The second essay focuses on a specific market, where I examine the relationship between product attributes and ERPT. This paper estimates the ERPT by using good-level daily data on wholesale prices of imported agricultural products, where the identification is achieved by using daily data on the domestic inflation rate. The results of standard empirical analyses are in line with existing studies that employ lower frequencies of data by showing evidence for incomplete daily ERPT of about 5 percent. The key innovation is achieved when nonlinearities in ERPT are considered, where ERPT is doubled to about 10 percent when daily nominal exchange rate changes are above 0.55 percent, daily frequencies of price change are above 3.12 percent, the storage life of a product is above 10 weeks, and for the non-zero price changes, the ERPT is complete. In the final essay, I focus on the firms’ export pricing strategy: pricing-to-market strategy. To achieve this, I introduce a partial equilibrium model of firm’s pricing strategy, where the market share of a firm plays an important role in the determination of markup. The empirical estimation is that markup ranges from 1.25 to 1.5 across years and 1.25 to 51.23 across firms. I also find that markups come back to their average level within 30 to 60 days of the initial date.

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Lisicky, Milan. "Essays on the macroeconomic impact of trade and monetary policy." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2012. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/533/.

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My thesis consists of three chapters. The aim of the first two chapters is to investigate the linkages between trade and the cross-country comovement and volatility of GDP growth, while the last chapter is an independent study on how the optimal design of monetary policy depends on the share of labour- and capital-intensive sectors. The first chapter develops a framework to study the effects of international trade on GDP comovement. Using a standard trade-theoretical approach, I first show how the comovement between any pair of countries is linked to shocks affecting both the two countries bilaterally and all other countries. Secondly, I use a calibrated version of the model to assess the importance of the bilateral channel relative to the role of linkages with all other countries. The second chapter investigates whether and how openness to trade may affect macroeconomic volatility. While greater openness provides a powerful channel for transmission of foreign disturbances, it also lowers the exposure to domestic shocks. My co-authors and I show that as long as the volatility of trading partners and covariance of shocks across countries are not too large, trade can act as a channel for the diversification of country-specific shocks and in that way contribute to lower volatility. The third chapter examines what is the optimal measure of inflation in a two-sector economy with nominal frictions, where sectors differ in labour intensity. I find that a welfare-oriented central bank should follow more closely the developments in the less labour-intensive sector. The source of this bias is traced back to a greater sensitivity of the marginal product of labour in that sector, so that output dispersion caused by nominal rigidities generates higher efficiency losses where labour is relatively less abundant.

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Chakrabarti, Anindya S. "Essays on macroeconomic networks, volatility and labor allocation." Thesis, Boston University, 2015. https://hdl.handle.net/2144/34329.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Boston University
This dissertation comprises three chapters on the network structure of the economy and its macroeconomic consequences. In the first two chapters, I analyze the relationship between macroeconomic volatility of individual countries and the international trade network the countries are embedded in. In the third chapter, I study the international migration network. In the first chapter, I show a regularity that European countries occupying more central positions in the intra-Europe trade network exhibit lower macroeconomic volatility. Intuitively the trade network has a core-periphery structure and the core is more stable than the periphery. This is puzzling because the core country is also more open to shocks coming from all other countries, which increases volatility. This relationship is informative in the context of the unsettled, classic debate on whether trade openness increases or decreases country-level volatility. Rather than considering an aggregate measure like trade openness, the idea of centrality provides a more comprehensive measure of the nature and strength of trade linkages as well as the identity of the trade partners, all of which have important effects on volatility. I construct a multi-country, multi-sector model subject to idiosyncratic productivity and liquidity shocks, and fully characterize the trade network generated in equilibrium. I calibrate the model to the European Union and I show that it closely replicates the observed negative relationship. Next, I extend the theory presented to incorporate a general network structure and its effects on volatility. From an empirical perspective, I construct an instrument based on geographic distance to establish the finding. From a theoretical perspective, I consider the possibilities of missing linkages and stochastic weights in the trade networks. The third chapter studies the European immobility puzzle. A theory of cross-country migration is devised in the form of labor mobility based on regional and sectoral productivity shocks in a multi-country, multi-sector setting. Differences across countries in socio-cultural and institutional factors induce a friction on such labor reallocation process. The model explains interstate migration network within the U. S. (frictionless benchmark) well. When applied to Europe, the model predicts a sizeable missing mass of migrants. Our estimates show this to be due to socio-cultural barriers.

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Zorell, Nico [Verfasser], and Claudia [Akademischer Betreuer] Buch. "Vertical linkages, international trade, and macroeconomic dynamics / Nico Zorell ; Betreuer: Claudia Buch." Tübingen : Universitätsbibliothek Tübingen, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1162279311/34.

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21

Dargahi, Hassan. "A rational expectations macroeconomic model of an oil-exporting-developing economy : case of Iran." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.387292.

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22

Michalopoulos, George T. "Macroeconomic consequences of the US dollar exchange rate movements for the EC economy : an empirical analysis." Thesis, University of Reading, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.305066.

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23

Batiste, Jorge Chami. "Foreign indebtedness and macroeconomic external adjustment : Brazil's industrial strategy and policy responses to external shocks in the 1970s and 1980s." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.276742.

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Deshpande, Pallavi. "Rise, Rule, and Graduation: A Study of U.S. Manufacturing Offshoring to China from 1990 to 2016." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2180.

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Despite the abundance of theoretical literature on and qualitative analyses of relocating manufacturing production, consequences of offshoring on labor markets, and foreign trade policy, very little empirical analysis has been conducted in order to examine the trends and patterns in economic variables that led to the rise in manufacturing offshoring in the first place. Focusing on the U.S. manufacturing offshoring to China, this thesis uses a comprehensive dataset of labor compensation costs and labor productivity for 20 manufacturing industries across 27 years for China and the United States to investigate the relationship between U.S. offshoring and productivity per wage for a unit of labor (α) in China vis-a-vis the U.S. I find that the effect of α on growth in offshoring across industries is not only positive but also statistically significant. Further, this thesis also attempts to combine empirical findings with a qualitative analysis of the prominent trends in the data that might help understand the S-shape of the offshoring curve over three periods (or states of the curve): rise (1990-1999), rule (2000-2008), and graduation (2009-2016).

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Barbosa, Fernando Honorato. "Uma análise das elasticidades de bens e serviços não fatores, sua estabilidade e o ajuste externo brasileiro pós-99." Universidade de São Paulo, 2006. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12140/tde-03122006-120212/.

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Os recentes superávits comerciais da economia brasileira transformaram a percepção de elevada fragilidade das contas externas do país que se verificou nas duas últimas décadas e meia. Diante desta nova realidade, parece pertinente avaliarmos quais foram os determinantes deste saldo comercial a partir dos elementos tradicionais da literatura, como a taxa de câmbio, os preços externos e a renda doméstica e mundial. Com este propósito, foram estimadas equações de longo prazo para as exportações e importações brasileiras para que se pudesse avaliar as elasticidades do comércio de bens e serviços não fatores do país. A metodologia utilizada foi a de cointegração proposta por Johansen (1988) e Johansen e Juselius (1990). A estimação das elasticidades se dividiu em dois períodos: 1980-1998 e 1980-2005. Com tal divisão pretendemos capturar os efeitos da mudança do regime cambial de 1999 sobre as contas externas. Além disso, foram realizados uma série de testes recursivos para se checar a estabilidade, quebras e a robustez da cointegração destas variáveis. Os resultados obtidos foram satisfatórios para as elasticidades, condizentes com trabalhos anteriores, mas agregaram a informação da elasticidade para o conjunto de bens e serviços não fatores e não apenas de bens. Além disso, foram identificadas uma série de quebras no período de estimação, em geral associadas a períodos críticos de mudanças de política econômica. Finalmente, foi possível identificar que após a flutuação cambial houve um aumento da elasticidade renda externa das exportações e uma redução da elasticidade-câmbio de exportações e importações. O trabalho conclui sugerindo que os elevados saldos comerciais são resultantes de uma particular combinação de preços externos favoráveis, câmbio real depreciado e renda mundial elevada, além de alguma mudança estrutural associada à maior resposta das exportações à renda mundial, provavelmente por conta do resgate das vantagens comparativas brasileiras na esteira da mudança do regime cambial em 1999.
The recent Brazilian trade surpluses changed the perception about the fragility of the external accounts of the Brazilian economy that lasted for the last two and a half decades. In the face of this new reality it seem reasonable to evaluate which were the determinants of this trade surplus, taking into account the traditional variables of the external accounts literature, like the currency, the external prices, the domestic and foreign output. With this purpose we estimated long run equations for exports and imports for evaluating the external trade of goods and services elasticities. The methodology applied was that proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) that take for the account of cointegration methods. The estimation was divided into two periods: 1980-1998 and 1980-2005. With such a division, we intend to capture the effects of the change in the Brazilian foreign exchange regime introduced in 1999 over the external accounts. Further, we tested these models recursively to check for stability, breaks and cointegration power. The results were satisfactory in terms of the elasticities, in line with previous jobs on this field, but we add the information on the aggregated goods and services elasticities, usually estimated only for the goods markets. Further we identified many brakes over the estimation sample, generally associated with macroeconomic policy changes. Finally it was possible to identify that after the floating of the Brazilian currency the external income elasticity of the exports jumped to a higher level and the currency elasticities of both exports and imports showed some reduction. We conclude by saying that the huge trade surpluses recently observed are the result of a particular combination of external favorable prices, a depreciated real exchange and a high level of world income growth, as far as some structural change associated with the bigger responsiveness of the exports to the world growth, probably due to the resurge in the Brazilian external comparative advantages in the face of the currency flotation of 1999.

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Kruszewska, Anna. "The futur of Luxembourg economy in world environment. Analysis based on formal description of international financial markets and real flows." Thesis, Lyon, École normale supérieure, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011ENSL0670.

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Le Luxembourg est le 3ème exportateur mondial de services financiers. Il figure parmi les pays qui accueillent le plus d’investissements directs en provenance de l’étranger, ce qui indique l’intensité de ses liens avec l’économie mondiale. Le but de ce travail est d’analyser l’influence éventuelle d’une économie mondiale caractérisée par l’interdépendance des marchés réels et financiers sur l’économie Luxembourgeoise. Chapitre 1 présente une analyse des interactions de l’économie Luxembourgeoise avec le monde extérieur. Le chapitre suivant est consacré à la revue de la littérature portant sur la modélisation de l’intermédiation financière au niveau macroéconomique, couvrant plusieurs types d’approches de modélisations. Enfin, le troisième chapitre comporte un modèle macroéconométrique multi-pays construit et analysé afin de simuler les scénarios plausibles. Le modèle y est présenté avec ses fondements théoriques, les résultats des simulations et une comparaison avec d’autres modèles. La nouveauté du modèle réside dans sa prise en compte du commerce international désagrégé en services financiers et autres, et des investissements internationaux en portefeuille avec leurs flux de titres et de capitaux, ainsi que de leur impact sur la croissance économique. Les résultats des simulations montrent que ce cadre d’analyse donne parfois des résultats différents par rapport aux modèles standards. Nombre de scénarios qui ne peuvent être simulés par d’autres modèles, tels que la baisse des flux internationaux d’investissements de portefeuille, sont également analysés et confirment la forte vulnérabilité du Luxembourg aux chocs externes qui ont lieu sur les marchés financiers
Luxembourg is world’s third financial services exporter and one of world’s top recipients of foreign direct investment in value as well as per capita terms, which highlight its strong linkages with world economy. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze possible outcomes for the very small and very open economy of Luxembourg in a world environment, where real and financial markets affect each other. To better understand the characteristics of the economy and economic mechanisms behind them, a thorough analysis with emphasis put on the interactions with the outside world based on available data and relevant literature is presented (Chapter 1). Subsequently a survey of literature devoted to modeling financial intermediation at macroeconomic level across various types of modeling approaches is offered (Chapter 2). Finally, a multi-country macroeconometric model built to simulate possible scenarios is presented and analyzed (Chapter 3) with its theoretical background, simulations’ results and comparison with other models. The model is novel in that it accounts for international trade disaggregated into financial services and the rest, and international portfolio investment in securities and equity flows, that have a significant impact on the country’s economic growth. Simulations’ results show that such a framework generates sometimes markedly different results than more standard models. A number of scenarios which cannot be simulated in other models, such as American stock market fall or a decrease in international portfolio flows, are also analyzed and confirm the high vulnerability of Luxembourg economy to external shocks originating in financial markets

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Samiei, H. "A disequilibrium analysis of international macroeconomic linkages : The impact of fluctuations in oil prices on trade and financial flows." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.383885.

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Bianco, Timothy P. "THREE ESSAYS ON CREDIT MARKETS AND THE MACROECONOMY." UKnowledge, 2018. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/economics_etds/38.

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Historically, credit market conditions have been shown to impact economic activity, at times severely. For instance, in the late 2000s, the United States experienced a financial crisis that seized domestic and foreign credit markets. The ensuing lack of access to credit brought about a steep decline in output and a sluggish recovery. Accordingly, policymakers commonly take steps to mitigate the effects of adverse credit market conditions and, at times, conduct unconventional monetary policy once traditional policy tools become ineffective. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding monetary policy, the flow of credit, financial crises, and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I describe monetary policy’s impact on the allocation of credit in the U.S. and analyze the role of upstream and downstream credit conditions and financial crises on international trade in a global supply chain. The first chapter assesses the impact of monetary policy shocks on credit reallocation and evaluates the importance of theoretical transmission mechanisms. Compustat data covering 1974 through 2017 is used to compute quarterly measures of credit flows. I find that expansionary monetary policy is associated with positive long-term credit creation and credit reallocation. These impacts are larger for long-term credit and for credit of financially constrained firms and firms that are perceived as risky to the lender. This is predicted by the balance sheet channel of monetary policy and mechanisms that reduce lenders’ risk perceptions and increase the tendency to search for yield. Furthermore, I find that, on average, the largest increases in credit creation resulting from monetary expansion are to firms that exhibit relatively low investment efficiency. These estimation results suggest that expansionary monetary policy may have a negative impact on future economic growth. The second chapter evaluates the quantitative effects of unconventional monetary policy in the late 2000s and early 2010s. This was a period when the traditional monetary policy tool (the federal funds rate) was constrained by the zero lower bound. We compute credit flow measures using Compustat data, and we employ a factor augmented vector autoregression to analyze unconventional monetary policy’s impact on the allocation of credit during the zero lower bound period. By employing policy counterfactuals, we find that unconventional monetary policy has a positive and simultaneous impact on credit creation and credit destruction and these impacts are larger in long-term credit markets. Applying this technique to analyze the flows of financially constrained and non-financially constrained borrowing firms, we find that unconventional monetary policy operates through the easing of collateral constraints because these effects are larger for small firms or those with high default probabilities. During the zero lower bound period, we also find that unconventional monetary policy brings about increases in credit creation for firms of relatively high investment efficiency. The third chapter pertains to the global trade collapse of the late 2000s. This collapse was due, in part, to strained credit markets and the vulnerability of exporters to adverse credit market conditions. The chapter evaluates the impact of upstream and downstream credit conditions and the differential effects of financial crises on bilateral trade. I find that upstream and downstream sectors’ needs for external financing is negatively associated with trade flows when the exporting or importing country’s cost of credit is high. However, I find that this effect is dampened for downstream sectors. I also find that downstream sectors’ value of collateral is positively associated with trade when the cost of credit is high in the importing country. High downstream trade credit dependence coupled with high costs of credit in the importing country also cause declines in imports. There are amplifying effects of credit costs for sectors that are highly dependent on external financing when the importing or exporting country is in financial crisis. Further, the magnitude is larger when the exporting country is in financial crisis. Finally, I find that these effects on trade flows are large when the exporting country is a developed economy, but they are muted for developing economies.

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Warnholtz, Perez Edgar G. "From NAFTA to USMCA: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Forces Producing North America's Regional Trade Agreements." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2245.

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On October 1, 2018, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), concluding 13 months of negotiations that concerned economies totaling 27.88% of world GDP. The recentness, magnitude, and relevance of the USMCA invokes a comprehensive analysis of the multidimensional factors that led to this agreement. Explaining the USMCA of 2018 requires insight of the continent’s political and economic forces that bound Canada, the United States, and Mexico with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) of 1994. After doing so, this study then compiles a variety of works in a meta-analysis on NAFTA’s effects during the past 25 years. This paper finds that NAFTA achieved its intended goals, but failed to anticipate many negative repercussions for which it is criticized today. Then, this study investigates the demand for renegotiation of NAFTA which was triggered by Donald Trump calling it “the worst trade deal in history maybe ever” during his presidential campaign. However, when presenting the new USMCA to the press, he described it as a “wonderful new trade deal.” Therefore, study analyzes how different the USMCA is from NAFTA, and finds that the few changes are explained by a modernization of certain chapters to adapt the treaty to the digital era. These modifications heavily resonate the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional free trade agreement that included the U.S. until President Trump withdrew from it. What then results to be a rebranding of other agreements is predicted here to bring more political repercussions than economic change, as elections in Canada dawn later this year and in the U.S. in 2020. Ultimately, each party succeeded per its own renegotiation objectives; Mexico and Canada sought market penetration in the U.S., whereas the U.S. sought concessions and an end to NAFTA. Ratification of the USMCA is pending at the domestic level of each country, which this paper predicts will occur successfully, perhaps even before the end of 2019. Nonetheless, despite the modernization efforts involved in producing the USMCA, this paper questions whether the agreement equips these three member states to face the challenges of tomorrow.

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Franco, bedoya Sebastián. "Essays on the Trade and Macroeconomic dimensions of Global Value Chains." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SACLX036/document.

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La phase la plus récente de la mondialisation, Chaînes de Valeur Mondiales (CVM), est datée du début des années 1990. La naissance de l'Organisation Mondiale du Commerce a abattu de nombreuses barrières commerciales et a conduit à la libéralisation dans des domaines tels que les télécommunications, les services financiers et les technologies de l'information. Cela a suscité l'émergence de nouveaux modèles d'affaires qui s'appuyaient sur de nouvelles opportunités pour développer des avantages comparatifs. Il s'est développé dans un flux constant d'investissement, de technologies, de biens intermédiaires et les services aux entreprises. C'est ce qu'on a appelé la «chaîne d'approvisionnement internationale». La principale caractéristique de ce phénomène est l'augmentation du commerce des biens finaux et intermédiaires entre les pays. Les biens intermédiaires ont généré la structure de production du réseau du commerce international et, donc, l'exposition à de nouveaux défis économiques qui ne sont pas saisis et pleinement compris par les statistiques commerciales bilatéraux. L'existence du réseau commercial international, liant les pays non seulement du côté de la consommation mais aussi de la production, fait que le contenu à valeur ajoutée du commerce diffère des exportations brutes. C'est précisément la valeur ajoutée qui est le principal objet d'intérêt économique parce qu'elle détermine l'activité économique et le niveau global de l'emploi dans un pays. La question principale est donc de savoir si les changements dans l'organisation du commerce mondial devraient conduire à une révision de nos intuitions économiques. C'est l'objet de cette thèse, dans laquelle je passe en revue de nombreux sujets et d'hypothèses économiques pressantes et les relie aux schémas de production mondiaux.Cette thèse couvre les thèmes suivants: (i) le rôle des accords de libre-échange et des technologies de l'information et de la communication "captés comme effet frontière"; (ii) les élasticités des exportations à valeur ajoutée; les déséquilibres commerciaux. Alors que les résultats pour de nombreux pays sont rapportés, j'accorde une attention particulière aux pays européens. D'une manière générale, les résultats montrent que (i) les accords de libre-échange augmentent le commerce bilatéral de 54% en moyenne après 10 ans ou plus, au tant pour les biens finaux que pour les biens intermédiaires. Le "border effect" est devenu moins contraignant avec le temps, les échanges de biens finaux ont augmenté de 443% par rapport au commerce intérieur depuis 1970, tandis que la hausse a été de 195% pour les biens intermédiaires. Ils fournissent également la preuve que l'effet des accords de libre-échange sur le commerce s'est renforcé avec le temps. (ii) Les conséquences de négliger la dimension des CVM pour l'élasticité des exportations à valeur ajoutée sont qu'elles ne sont pas constantes dans le temps et inférieures à celles des exportations brutes. Une contribution importante est ici de mettre en place un cadre souple qui lie les changements dans les exportations à valeur ajoutée aux changements dans le flux réel des biens finaux et intermédiaires. Cela rend plus facile de calculer d'autres outils qui ont été développés auparavant dans la littérature, comme les taux de change effectif réel (REER) en termes de valeur ajoutée. (iii) L'utilisation d'une approche à valeur ajoutée pour étudier les déséquilibres commerciaux montre que nous ne comprenons toujours pas complètement les causes et les conséquences de ces déséquilibres et que les CVM ne font que compliquer davantage les choses. Par conséquence, je démêle les différentes composantes de la dynamique de la balance commerciale (la performance commerciale et la croissance de la demande) tout en intégrant les liens internationaux du réseau de production entrées-sorties. Enfin, j'explique dans quelle mesure les dévaluations internes sont suffisantes pour compenser la rigidité des taux de change intra-Euro
The most recent phase of globalization, the so-called Global Value Chains (GVCs), is dated at the beginning of the 1990s. The birth of the World Trade Organization brought down many trade barriers and led to liberalization in areas like telecommunications, financial services, and information technologies. It meant the emergence of new business models that built on new opportunities to develop comparative advantages. With the opening of new markets, the technical revolution in IT and communications, and the closer harmonization of economic models worldwide, trade became much more than just a simple exchange of merchandise across borders. It developed into a constant flow of investment, of technologies, of goods for processing and business services. This is what has been called the "International Supply Chain". The key characteristic of this phenomenon is the increasing trade in final and intermediate goods among countries. Intermediate goods generated the network production structure of international trade and with it the exposure to new policy challenges that are not captured and fully understand by bilateral trade statistics. The existence of the international trade network, linking countries not only on the consumption side but also on production, makes the value-added content of trade to differ from gross exports. Nevertheless, it is precisely domestic value added the primary object of economic interest because it determines economic activity and the overall employment level in a country. The main question, therefore, is whether the changes in the organization of world trade should lead to a revision on our Economic intuitions. This is the purpose of this thesis, in which I review many pressing economic topics and hypotheses, and connect them with the global production patterns.This thesis covers the topics of (i) the trade-enhancing role of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT, "captured as a border effect"), (ii) value-added exports elasticities, and (iii) trade imbalances. While results for many countries are reported, I pay particular attention to the European countries. Broadly speaking, results show that (i) FTAs increase bilateral trade by 54% on average after 10 or more years, for both final goods and intermediate inputs. The border effect has become less binding over time, increasing trade in final goods an astounding 443%, relative to domestic trade since 1970, while the rise has been 195% for intermediate inputs. They also provide evidence that the trade effect of FTAs has strengthened over time. (ii) The implications of neglecting the GVC dimension for the value-added export elasticity are that it is not constant over time and lower than for gross exports. An important contribution here is to put in place a tractable framework that links changes in value-added exports to changes in the actual flow of final and intermediate goods. This makes easier to compute other tools that have been developed before in the literature like GVC Real Effective Exchange Rates (REERs). (iii) Using a value-added approach to study trade imbalances shows that we still do not have a full understanding of the causes and consequences of these imbalances and that GVC only makes it more challenging. Therefore, I disentangle the different components of the trade balance dynamics (trade performance and demand growth) while incorporating the international input-output production network linkages. Finally, I shed some light on to what extent internal devaluations are sufficient to offset the intra-Euro nominal exchange rigidity

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Cosenza, Apoena Canuto. "Calibã se liberta: o setor externo da economia brasileira (1999 a 2013)." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/8/8137/tde-11072018-122743/.

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A presente tese possui como questão central: quais foram os mecanismos que permitiram a recuperação econômica ocorrida no Brasil, entre 2003 e 2010? A hipótese proposta é que a recuperação aparente da economia local foi resultado da alta dos preços dos bens primários (as chamadas commodities). Para verificação da hipótese, foi analisado o balanço de pagamentos brasileiro, dando-se destaque especial para o balanço comercial. Estudou-se a composição do balanço, e a relação entre o setor externo e alguns dos indicadores macroeconômicos da atividade econômica local. Ainda, verificou-se qual foi a relação entre o desempenho brasileiro no comércio internacional e a distribuição de renda local. Os dados encontrados indicam que tanto a aparente recuperação econômica quanto a distribuição de renda favorável às camadas de menor rendimento se fizeram possíveis graças à alta da demanda chinesa pelas commodities. No entanto, a recuperação econômica não foi acompanhada de investimentos produtivos significativos, o que resultou no não aumento da produtividade local. A tese proposta é que, na ausência de investimentos significativos, os problemas estruturais da economia brasileira, em especial a dependência econômica e a baixa capacidade de acumulação de capital, não foram superados, e até se aprofundaram.
The present thesis has the following central question: what were the mechanisms that allowed to the economic recovery occurred in Brazil between 2003 and 2010? The hypothesis proposed is that the recovery of the local economy was a result of the rise of commodities prices. To verify this hypothesis, the brazilian balance of payments was analyzed, with special emphasis on the trade balance. The composition of the balance of payments and the relationship between the external sector and some of the macroeconomic indicators of local economic activity were studied. The relation between the Brazilian performance in international trade and the distribution of local income was also analyzed. The data found indicates that both the economic recovery and the income distribution favorable to lower income population were made possible by the rise in chinese demand for commodities. However, the economic recovery was not followed by significant productive investments, which resulted in no increases in local productivity. The thesis proposed here is that, in the absence of significant investments, the structural problems of brazilian economy, especially the economic dependence and the low capital accumulation capacity, were not overcomen but actually increased.

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Forlati, Chiara. "Essays on monetary, fiscal and trade policy in open economies." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7403.

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En esta tesis estudio varias cuestiones de política monetaria y fiscal usando modelos de equilibrio generales completamente micro-fundados. El primer capítulo de esta tesis trata la cuestión de cómo la políticas monetarias y fiscales se deben conducir en una unión monetaria donde hay un solo banco central que fija el tipo de interés común mientras que el gobierno todavía conserva independencia completa en las decisiones de políticas fiscales. En el segundo capítulo se dedica a estudiar si es posible racionalizar en un modelo keynesiano completamente micro-fundado la existencia de una unión monetaria. El último capítulo investiga en qué medida el incentivo de las autoridades de política económica en una economía abierta de mejorar los términos de intercambio en su favor se puede compensar por la externalidad de relocalización de la producción (home market effect).
In this thesis I study different kinds of monetary and fiscal policy issues by using fully microfounded general equilibrium models. The first chapter addresses the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should be conducted in a monetary union where there is a single central bank that sets the common interest rate while governments still retain full independence in fiscal policy decisions. The second chapter is devoted to study whether it is possible to rationalize, within a fully microfounded New Keynesian framework, the existence of a monetary union. The last chapter investigates to what extent the incentive of open economy policy makers to improve the terms of trade in their favour can be outweighed by the production relocation externality (the so called home market effect).

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Malek, Mansour Jeoffrey H. G. "Three essays in international economics." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210878.

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This thesis consists in a collection of research works dealing with various aspects of International Economics. More precisely, we focus on three main themes: (i) the existence of a world business cycle and the implications thereof, (ii) the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the Euro Zone resulting from fluctuations in the euro exchange rate because of differences in sector specialization patterns and some consequences of such shocks, and (iii) the relationship between trade openness and growth influence of the sector specialization structure on that relationship.

Regarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is).
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Perez, Giovanni. "Essays on Capital Structure of Nations." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2018. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/2539.

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Bianca, Ana Lúcia de Souza Leão. "Macroeconomia da composição do comércio exterior." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/15980.

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The global financial crisis occurred in 2008, it is widely discussed within the idiosyncrasies caused by external shocks, including the liquidity shocks and terms of trade. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of the composition of Brazilian foreign trade and its effects on the domestic macro economy through a DSGE model for Brazil. For this, it sought to calibrate this model and analyze the impact of liquidity shocks and terms of trade in the main macroeconomic variables. The model results suggest that financial crises can generate substantial effects on emerging economies such as in Brazil, and the dynamics of these effects will it also depend on the composition of the trade balance of the country.
A crise financeira mundial, ocorrida em 2008, é amplamente discutida no âmbito das idiossincrasias causadas por choques externos, dentre eles os choques de liquidez e dos termos de troca. No presente trabalho, analisamos as particularidades da composição do comércio exterior brasileiro e seus efeitos sobre a macroeconomia doméstica, através de um modelo DSGE para o Brasil. Para tanto, buscou-se calibrar este modelo e analisar os impactos dos choques de liquidez e dos termos de troca nas principais variáveis macroeconômicas. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que crises financeiras podem gerar efeitos substanciais em economias emergentes, como no caso brasileiro, e a dinâmica desses efeitos dependerá também da composição da balança comercial do país.

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Diviš, Jaroslav. "Aktuální problémy vývoje eurozóny se zaměřením na mezinárodní obchod." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-162290.

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This thesis examines current problems in eurozone with special focus on international trade. An important part of the research will be the impact of the economic crisis which came to Europe in 2008. First chapter describes the development of eurozone's exports and imports between years 2001 and 2011. It analyses changes and trends in the commodity and territorial structure of eurozone's foreign trade. Some important issues which are linked to these topics are discussed in the first chapter as well, including current bargaining for bilateral free trade agreements. Second chapter deals with macroeconomic imbalances between the northern and the southern part of eurozone. It tries to identify reasons which caused this problem and assesses the role of euro in it. Finally, it offers some possible ways to adjustment between the both country groups. Third chapter concerns with the competitiveness of eurozone's members and measures how it has changed since the beginning of the crisis. In the second part of this chapter, selected weaknesses of the Italian competitiveness are stated together with a comparison with Germany. Final summary recapitulates previous chapters and presents the most important findings.

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Sene, Seydina Ousmane. "FOOD IMPORTS UNDER FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONSTRAINTS IN THE CFA’S FRANC ZONE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)." UKnowledge, 2014. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_etds/26.

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To respond to the high imported food prices in their domestic markets, net food importing countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) zone[1] are adjusting their import tariffs and homologate domestic prices of imported commodities such as rice, wheat, maize, and sugar. This research uses a multivariate specification of error correction model (VECM) of estimation to investigate the link between food imports, world price index of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, real effective exchange rates, domestic food production, GDP, and trade openness in the short and long run. The data are on each homogenous commodity from 1969 to 2012. This research finds a long-run relationship between world price index, domestic production, GDP, real effective exchange rates and trade openness. Under fixed exchange rates regime, GDP, domestic food production, world price index of food, and trade openness are the determinants of food imported in the CFA zones. Policy options focusing on long-term investment in domestic food production of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, and trade openness are the fundamental factors to curtail the increasing food import volume/bill under fixed exchange rate regime in the CFA zones. [1] The CFA zone in Sub-Saharan Africa is the WAEMU and CEMAC Countries, which are listed and represented in figure 1.

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Scholl, Almuth. "Essays in international macroeconomics /." Aachen : Shaker, 2006. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=014942668&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.

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Gómez-González, Patricia, and Daniel Rees. "Essays on international macroeconomics." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90123.

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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, 2014.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 141-149).
This thesis examines several aspects of open economies. The first two chapters are about sovereign debt and its interactions with domestic financial markets. The third chapter, coauthored with my classmate Daniel Rees, studies volatility in terms of trade. The first chapter studies how the introduction of new assets in sovereign debt markets can increase a country's level of investment and welfare. In the model presented in this chapter public debt has a liquidity purpose for the domestic private sector and is demanded as a saving vehicle by more patient international investors. The government commits to repay but is constrained by its fiscal capacity which is low when the private sector needs outside liquidity. I find that the government can increase domestic investment by tranching its fiscal capacity, increasing the number of assets supplied and introducing state-contingency or safe assets. In this chapter I also test the predictions of the model and find that domestic collateral constraints and international discount factor both play a significant role in determining the share of public debt held by non-residents and that there is a significant differential effect for countries that have introduced more financial innovation in sovereign debt markets. The second chapter studies the implications of bailout policy tools for sovereign default and public default risk in a model where, similarly to chapter 1, public debt has a liquidity purpose in financial markets. In this chapter, I show that the government might default for strategic reasons if it can bailout its financial system. It does so when investment and output are low in the economy and when available credit in financial markets is below optimal. The model in this chapter delivers the empirical evidence that financial crises precede sovereign debt crises and it generates the qualitative evidence that, first, private credit drops before sovereign defaults, second, government defaults in periods of low output and, finally, bailout policies affect public debt sustainability. The third chapter, co-authored with my classmate Daniel Rees, examines the consequences of changes in the volatility of commodity price shocks on commodity exporters. We first demonstrate the existence of time-varying volatility in the terms of trade of a selection of commodity-exporting small open economies. We then show empirically that increases in terms of trade volatility trigger a contraction in domestic consumption and investment and an improvement in the trade balance in these economies. Finally, we construct a theoretical model and demonstrate that it can replicate our empirical results.
by Patricia Gómez-González.
Ph. D.

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Rees, Daniel. "Essays on international macroeconomics." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79209.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2013.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 167-174).
This thesis examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on commodity-exporting small, open economies. The first chapter examines whether households, firms and policymakers in these economies can distinguish between temporary and permanent commodity price shocks. I find that they are largely unable to do so. In fact, my model suggests that the expected future path of commodity prices following a temporary price shock is almost identical to the expected future path of commodity prices following a permanent price shock. However, I also find that these information frictions reduce the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations, contrary to popular belief. In the second chapter I describe optimal monetary policy in an environment where agents cannot directly observe whether commodity price shocks are temporary or permanent and where an economy's non-commodity sector features a learning-by-doing externality. I find that under optimal monetary policy the non-commodity sector contracts by more during a transitory commodity price boom under incomplete information than it does under full information, but by less during a permanent boom. I also examine the performance of simple monetary policy rules. A policy of responding strongly to deviations of home-produced goods inflation from target with a modest response to changes in the nominal exchange rate comes close to replicating the welfare outcomes of optimal policy. In contrast, an exchange rate peg generally produces large welfare losses. The third chapter, co-authored with my classmate Patricia Gomez-Gonzales, examines the consequences of changes in the volatility of commodity price shocks on commodity exporters. We first demonstrate the existence of time-varying volatility in the terms of trade of a selection of commodity-exporting small open economies. We then show empirically that increases in terms of trade volatility trigger a contraction in domestic consumption and investment and an improvement in the trade balance in these economies. Finally, we construct a theoretical model and demonstrate that it can replicate our empirical results.
by Daniel Morgan Rees.
Ph.D.

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Dmitriev, Mikhail. "Essays in International Macroeconomics." Thesis, Boston College, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:103536.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Thesis advisor: Susanto Basu
My dissertation develops a set of tools for thinking about heterogeneity in economic models in an analytically tractable way. Many models use the representative agent framework, which greatly simplifies macroeconomic aggregation but abstracts from the heterogeneity we see in the real world. Models with heterogeneity in general equilibrium have too many moving parts, so that it is hard to disentangle cause and effect. First, my work in international macroeconomics incorporates heterogeneity via idiosyncratic shocks across countries in a simple and analytical way. Second, my work on financial frictions helps to understand the role of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers in different contractual environments. Crucially, these insights can be incorporated into the models currently used by academics and central banks for policy analysis
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Minasyan, Gohar. "Essays in International Macroeconomics." Thesis, Boston College, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104630.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland
This thesis includes three essays. The first chapter analyzes how the implications of productivity shocks in an open economy can differ depending on the size of the economy relative to the rest of the world. It employs a stylized two-country general equilibrium model with love of variety, where economies differ in size and shows that a dynamic home market effect is present: productivity shocks that lower production and entry costs lead to deterioration of home terms of trade when home is small relative to the rest of the word but to improvement of terms of trade when home is large. The second chapter analyzes the role of globalization in the lack of convergence of living standards within Europe, despite integration processes. Building on theoretical and empirical literature on trade and income inequality in the U.S. this chapter proposes a model that describes how globalization affects disparities between countries in Europe. To quantitatively assess this effect, a measure of exposure to globalization is constructed, using detailed trade, employment, and output data. The chapter shows that the relative performance of countries within Europe is correlated with their exposure to globalization. In particular, countries that experienced relative declines of living standards over the past decade have been most exposed to globalization. The third chapter explores the implications of demand side pricing complementarities and endogenous markups in open economy. It shows that endogenous markups resulting from translog preferences imply richer dynamics for international relative prices that have better chances to match the data. Further, countercyclical markups lead to endogenous procyclical movement as well as cross-country correlation of measured TPF. It also shows that in a stylized model endogenous markups may act as a transmission mechanism, leading in particular to positive GDP co-movement across borders as opposed to a benchmark CES model
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Saksonovs, Sergejs. "Essays in international macroeconomics." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.609507.

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Watson, Anna Maria. "Essays in international macroeconomics." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608047.

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de, Ferra Sergio. "Essays in international macroeconomics." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2016. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3428/.

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This thesis comprises three chapters. In the first chapter, I analyze three main facts from the recent experience of capital flows in the European monetary union. First, core and periphery countries ran widening current account surplus and deficit positions. Second, core countries intermediated gross capital flows from the rest of the world, which financed deficits in the periphery. Finally, a pervasive sovereign debt crisis took place. I argue that institutional features of the Economic and Monetary Union have contributed to these facts. First, I show in a theoretical model that subsidies on holdings of euro-denominated assets contribute to all three phenomena. Second, I build a dynamic model of an economic union. The model generates predictions for net and gross asset flows that quantitatively replicate the EMU experience. Finally, I propose a novel theoretical mechanism magnifying the severity of a debt crisis in an economic union. In the second chapter, I study the interaction between sovereign default risk, firm-level financial frictions, and fiscal policy. This research is motivated by the severe contraction observed in Italy during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. I show that a sovereign debt crisis causes a reduction of credit to firms, occurring through the channel of domestic fiscal policy. A fiscal tightening in the country in crisis causes a reduction of firms’ profits and an increase in their default risk. Secondly, I show that firms are heterogeneous in the degree to which they are affected by a crisis: Firms in the non-tradable sector are more vulnerable, as demand for their output falls in a crisis. In the third chapter, I study the determinants of time-varying volatility in interest rates on emerging market economies’ external debt. I show that a baseline model of endogenous sovereign default quantitatively replicates the pattern of time-varying volatility observed in the data. The model features a key non-linearity in the policy function for the interest rate on external debt. In the absence of shocks to the second moment of stochastic variables, the model generates a path of interest rates that is more volatile in bad times, when output is low and debt is high.

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Hughes, Jonathan. "Essays on international macroeconomics." Thesis, University of Kent, 2016. https://kar.kent.ac.uk/57338/.

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Paper 1: We investigate the international distribution of external balances using a world economy model featuring country-specific macroeconomic uncertainty. Incomplete international financial markets and a collateral constraint on borrowing both serve to limit risk-sharing opportunities. In this environment, insurance against uncertainty takes the form of physical capital accumulation and intertemporal trade between countries. The cross-country dispersion of net foreign assets is close to its empirical counterpart. Macroeconomic uncertainty accounts for about one third of the international variation of cross-border asset holdings in the model. Approximations suggest that decreases in financial frictions were an important driver of increases in the international dispersion of external balances observed in the data. Paper 2: I investigate the effect of real exchange rate movements on the international distribution of external balances in a model world economy featuring incomplete markets. Intertemporal trade between nations is the only means of insuring against country-specific uncertainty. By changing the return to delaying consumption, fluctuations in the real exchange rate influence the accumulation of foreign assets. In a plausibly calibrated approximation of the model, the proportion of the cross-country dispersion of net foreign assets, the current account and the trade balance that can be attributed to the effect of real exchange rate movements is 23, 35 and 53 percent respectively. Paper 3: The link between exchange rate flexibility, the international balance sheet and economic recoveries is analysed in this paper through the application of OLS and two-stage least squares estimators to a dataset covering 201 recovery episodes occurring between 1971 and 2007. An instrument representing the history of exchange rate regime choice in the years immediately preceding the recovery is used to identify exogenous variation in exchange rate flexibility for the two-stage least squares procedure. Our results suggest that when external foreign currency denominated debt liabilities are relatively large, a pegged regime is associated with significantly faster real GDP growth than a non-pegged arrangement during a recovery. This finding can be rationalised on the basis that when external foreign currency denominated borrowing becomes sufficiently large, the adverse balance sheet effects associated with higher levels of exchange rate flexibility begin to significantly outweigh the beneficial expenditure switching effects.

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Favaretto, Federico. "Essays in International Macroeconomics:." Thesis, Boston College, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:109208.

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Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland
Thesis advisor: Rosen Valchev
This dissertation consists in three chapters, each making a distinct contribution. Chapter 1 empirically tests classic and new Uncovered Interest Parity puzzle in an innovative way. Findings suggest that government debt is significant and economically relevant for UIP puzzles estimation.Chapter 2 shows that a class of macroeconomic models reproduce the UIP puzzle under a standard parametrization and adding convenience yields exogenous dynamics. Chapter 3 is a theoretical model that links financial crises to the election of populists parties, matching empirical evidence from Europe
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Kang, Hyunju. "Essays in International Macroeconomics." The Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1337970528.

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49

Eugeni, Sara. "Essays in international macroeconomics." Thesis, University of York, 2013. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5342/.

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Abstract:

This thesis is composed of two parts. Part I contains two essays on capital flows and, in particular, on the phenomenon of global imbalances. Part II includes an essay on the determination of exchange rates. In the first part, I provide a framework to analyse the trade imbalances between the United States and East Asian countries. In a two-country OLG model with production, I investigate the relationship between East Asian economies' high propensity to save and global imbalances. It is suggested that the absence of pay-as-you-go pension systems can rationalize the saving behaviour of emerging economies and capital outflows to the United States. The model supports the view that there is a "global saving glut" in the world economy. The analysis implies that the introduction of a pay-as-you-go system in China would have the effect of reducing the imbalances. In Chapter 2, I propose a two-country model to capture output per capita inequalities across countries. My motivation is that global imbalances involve countries at different stages of development. Consistently with empirical evidence, I assume that the East Asian country has a higher capital share in the aggregate production function. The analysis shows that technological differences provide incentives for capital to flow to the developing country. Given that the net foreign assets position of the United States is negative, I conclude that differences in social security systems is the most important basis for trade between the two countries. In the second part, I develop a theory of nominal exchange rate determination. The model under study is a stochastic OLG economy with multiple currencies and goods. Currencies serve as stores of value and are also required to buy the country-specific good. Portfolios and nominal exchange rates can be pinned down at the stochastic steady state. The model makes a first step towards understanding changes in countries' net foreign assets positions as due to both portfolio adjustments and valuation effects driven by fluctuations of nominal exchange rates.

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Abdullin, Denis. "Postavení Ruska v mezinárodním obchodě a jeho vliv na reálnou ekonomiku." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-196980.

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Abstract:

International trade and competitiveness of domestic producers on the international market are very important factors for a further economic development. Country's trade structure determines its resistance to external shocks, which threaten domestic economy. Diversification gains a lot in importance lately. The existence of more industries, which are able to withstand tough competition with foreign firms is a cornerstone of economic development. Diversification is a key determinant for Russian economy due to a greater dependency on the export of raw materials, especially crude oil. These macroeconomic links can be shown by different econometric tools. Problems with excessive dependency on oil export can be detected by means of empiric analysis.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Macroeconomics of international trade'

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