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Journal articles on the topic 'Macroeconomics – Models'

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Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 March 2023

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1

Talavyrya, М., and B. Dorosh. "Development of macroeconomic models based on behavioral economics: issues and further research." Zemleustrìj, kadastr ì monìtorìng zemelʹ, no. 4 (October 27, 2021): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.31548/zemleustriy2021.04.02.

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The article analyzes the formation, spread and development of behavioral economics in microeconomic research, as well as its development in macroeconomic research over the past two decades. The key shortcomings of neoclassical macroeconomic models and their critique based on existing research and practical application by central bankers are highlighted. The key stages in the formation of behavioral macroeconomics, elements of which began to appear in the works of neoclassical macroeconomists, have been identified. The main arguments in favor of replacing neoclassical macroeconomic models with new behavioral macroeconomic models are presented, as well as key issues of behavioral macroeconomics and prospects for its further adoption as a basic concept for decision-making for governments. Key studies of behavioral economists on behavioral macroeconomic models, most of which are agents-based (microfoundations-based), have been identified and systematized. Based on the results of testing various behavioral models by world-renowned scientists, as well as our analysis, it is proposed to focus further macroeconomic research on behavioral models based on the activities of agents (microfoundations).

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Moiseev, S. "The Formalization of Macroeconomics and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 2 (February 20, 2007): 46–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2007-2-46-58.

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While early macroeconomists were engineers trying to solve practical problems, modern macroeconomists have focused on developing mathematic tools and establishing models. These analytic instruments, however, have been slow to find their way into practical applications. This paper reviews the influence of modern macroeconomics on realities of monetary policy. The author concludes that the effect of formalization of macroeconomic theory on central banking is close to zero.

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Fair, Ray C. "Trade models and macroeconomics." Economic Modelling 94 (January 2021): 296–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.10.007.

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Saes, Beatriz Macchione, and Ademar Ribeiro Romeiro. "Ecological macroeconomics: a methodological review." Economia e Sociedade 28, no. 2 (August 2019): 365–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n2art04.

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Abstract The paper aims to analyse and provide an overview of the emerging ecological macroeconomic approach from a methodological point of view. As with ecological economics, this emerging approach is being constituted by a methodologically plural set of studies. We identify and classify three main macroeconomic strands developed from ecological economic concerns. Firstly, we present the conventional macroeconomic IS-LM model adapted to a sustainable scale of production. Secondly, we discuss a fundamentalist post-Keynesian view on ecological economics that criticises the use of models more heavily. Finally, we describe the attempts to build ecological macroeconomic models based on the post-Keynesian approach. For each model, theories, methods, and assumptions are discussed and evaluated in light of ecological economic foundations. We conclude by reinforcing the role of methodological criticism in the consolidation of relevant ecological macroeconomics.

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Praščević, Aleksandra. "Macroeconomics and political misuse: Interpreting economic policy." Revija Kopaonicke skole prirodnog prava 3, no. 2 (2021): 171–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/rkspp2102171p.

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The paper focuses the impact of political abuse of economic policy on macroeconomic results, as well as the macroeconomic models that investigate this impact. The paper also presents the development of modern macroeconomics, along with main changes in the way of creating economic policy. Two key political motives - opportunistic (to stay in power as long as possible) and partisan - to achieve ideological goals in the field of economics, are considered in the context of traditional models that assume naive voters and adaptive expectations, but also in the context of rational models that include rational voters and expectations. The paper also gives certain recommendations for overcoming the politically motivated behavior of economic policymakers.

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Fisher, P. G., S. K. Tanna, D. S. Turner, K. F. Wallis, and J. D. Whitley. "Comparative Properties of Models of the Uk Economy." National Institute Economic Review 125 (August 1988): 69–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795018812500107.

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This paper describes the overall properties of six major macroeconomic models, through dynamic multiplier analysis of a number of standard simulation exercises. The models are those of the London Business School (LBS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), HM Treasury (HMT), the Bank of England (BE), the City University Business School (CUBS) and the Liverpool University Research Group in Macroeconomics (LPL), as deposited with the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau in late 1987. The simulations demonstrate the response of the models to changes in key policy instruments and to exogenous shocks; they are conducted, as far as possible, in a consistent manner across the models.

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Olesen, Finn. "Macroeconomics – developments and modern trends." Journal of Behavioural Economics and Social Systems 4, no. 1 (May 29, 2022): 64–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.54337/ojs.bess.v4i1.7296.

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Ever since the publication of Keynes’ The General Theory in 1936, both the theoretical and methodological content of macroeconomics, and the role of economic policy, have seen continued change. In contemporary times, macroeconomics is dominated by the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. However, since the Great Recession, the modern mainstream has been increasingly exposed to criticism from various alternatives of a more heterodox nature. The aims of this article are threefold. First, to give a selected presentation on the development of modern macroeconomics. Second, to address why and how the NNS has become the dominant (and, for most mainstreamers, the only) way of analysing macroeconomic phenomena. Third, to present two alternatives to the mainstream that might challenge the future dominance of this thinking.

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Achdou, Yves, Francisco J. Buera, Jean-Michel Lasry, Pierre-Louis Lions, and Benjamin Moll. "Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2028 (November 13, 2014): 20130397. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0397.

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The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research.

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9

ROSEN, RICHARD A. "IS THE IPCC’s 5TH ASSESSMENT A DENIER OF POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE?" Climate Change Economics 07, no. 01 (February 2016): 1640003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007816400030.

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This review summarizes what we know about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the period 2010 to 2100 as presented in the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. The review finds that little more, if anything, has been learned about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the long run since the 2007 IPCC report. Furthermore, while the 2014 report is quite self-critical about the serious weaknesses in its methodologies, the self-criticisms are not explicitly taken into account when the net macroeconomic costs of mitigation are reported. Nor do the research teams that run the integrated assessment models relied on in the report utilize any systematic methodology for assessing the inherent uncertainty in the macroeconomic results reported. Thus, the basic quantitative “findings” are misleading — and, perhaps, even deceptive — in part because they appear to preclude the possibility of large macroeconomic benefits from mitigating climate change.

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Aoki, Masanao, and Hiroshi Yoshikawa. "Non-self-averaging in macroeconomic models: a criticism of modern micro-founded macroeconomics." Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 7, no. 1 (January 26, 2012): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11403-012-0088-3.

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11

CAPRIATA, WILLIAM, and LEONARDO FLAUZINO DE SOUZA. "The exchange rate in Orthodox, Keynesian and New Developmentalism theoretical models: a literature review." Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 41, no. 2 (April 2021): 220–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572021-3126.

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ABSTRACT The main purpose of this paper is to present the differences in the exchange rates in macroeconomic models from the three current theoretical views: Orthodox, Post-Keynesian and New Developmentalism. To achieve this objective, it is proposed to make a bibliographic survey of the literature on open macroeconomics and exchange rate. The main differences among these views concerns to exchange rate determination, causes of exchange rate variations and balance of payments equilibrium determination.

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Coeurdacier, Nicolas, and Hélène Rey. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics." Journal of Economic Literature 51, no. 1 (March 1, 2013): 63–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.51.1.63.

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Home bias is a perennial feature of international capital markets. We review various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon highlighting recent developments in macroeconomic modeling that incorporate international portfolio choices in standard two-country general equilibrium models. We refer to this new literature as Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics. We focus on three broad classes of explanations: (i) hedging motives in frictionless financial markets (real exchange rate and nontradable income risk), (ii) asset trade costs in international financial markets (such as transaction costs or differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets), and (iii) informational frictions and behavioral biases. Recent theories call for new portfolio facts beyond equity home bias. We present new evidence on cross-border asset holdings across different types of assets: equities, bonds and bank lending and new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level. These data should inform macroeconomic modeling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment. (JEL E13, F41, G11, G12, G15)

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Lodewijks, John. "Macroeconometric Models and the Methodology of Macroeconomics." History of Economics Society Bulletin 11, no. 1 (1989): 33–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1042771600005767.

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“The stimulation given by the General Theory to the construction and testing of aggregative models may well prove to be Keynes's chief contribution to economics in the longer perspective of historical judgement.”

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14

Hope, David, and David Soskice. "Growth Models, Varieties of Capitalism, and Macroeconomics." Politics & Society 44, no. 2 (April 7, 2016): 209–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0032329216638054.

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15

Mankiw, N. G. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5 (May 20, 2009): 86–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2009-5-86-103.

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The article written by a prominent American expert analyzes the development of macroeconomic ideas. The author considers the history of macroeconomics as an interaction between applied ("engineer") and theoretical traditions. Although modern theoretical approaches, as he argues, didnt have a serious impact on economic policy, their emergence helped creating rigorous analytical tools used to develop a new generation of models ("New Neoclassical Synthesis"). The latter are to form the basis of new macroeconometric approaches and new macroeconomic engineering.

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Brunnermeier, Markus, and Arvind Krishnamurthy. "The Macroeconomics of Corporate Debt." Review of Corporate Finance Studies 9, no. 3 (August 14, 2020): 656–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rcfs/cfaa015.

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Abstract The 2020 COVID-19 crisis can spur research on firms’ corporate finance decisions and their macroeconomic implications, similar to the wave of important research on banking and household finance triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. What are the relevant corporate finance mechanisms in this crisis? Modeling dynamics and timing considerations are likely important, as is integrating corporate financing considerations into modern quantifiable macroeconomics models. Recent empirical work, including articles in this special issue, on the drag from debt in the COVID-19 crisis provides a first glimpse into the new research agenda. (JEL E22, E44, G32, G33) Received July 23, 2020; editorial decision: July 23, 2020 by Editor Andrew Ellul

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Nikiforov, A., and O. Antipina. "Behavioral macroeconomics: Towards a newsynthesis?" Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 12 (December 20, 2016): 88–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-12-88-103.

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This article overviews the existing possibilities of synthetizing New Keynesian optimization models with the research in behavioral economics. These approaches allow to build empirically adequate macroeconomic models and to expound this framework as a new research program, as a unification of traditional macroeconomic theory and behavioral economics.

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18

Moiseev, S. "Macroanalysis of Exchange Rate: From Cassel to Obstfield and Rogoff." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 20, 2004): 49–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2004-1-49-65.

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In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of important developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and the empirics of exchange rate determination. This article presents a survey of exchange rate models from classical purchasing power parity to new open economy macroeconomics. Significant attention is given to five directions of analysis: goods market approach, optimum currency area theory, monetarist's approach, new developments into the open economy macroeconomic theory, and several empiric models of exchange rate.

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19

Stiglitz, Joseph E. "Where modern macroeconomics went wrong." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 34, no. 1-2 (2018): 70–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx057.

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Abstract This paper provides a critique of the DSGE models that have come to dominate macroeconomics during the past quarter-century. It argues that at the heart of the failure were the wrong microfoundations, which failed to incorporate key aspects of economic behaviour, e.g. incorporating insights from information economics and behavioural economics. Inadequate modelling of the financial sector meant they were ill-suited for predicting or responding to a financial crisis; and a reliance on representative agent models meant they were ill-suited for analysing either the role of distribution in fluctuations and crises or the consequences of fluctuations on inequality. The paper proposes alternative benchmark models that may be more useful both in understanding deep downturns and responding to them.

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20

Colander, David, Peter Howitt, Alan Kirman, Axel Leijonhufvud, and Perry Mehrling. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics." American Economic Review 98, no. 2 (April 1, 2008): 236–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.236.

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21

Robinson, Sherman. "Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models." World Development 19, no. 11 (November 1991): 1509–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0305-750x(91)90003-z.

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22

Shimer, Robert. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: The Labor Wedge." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 1 (January 1, 2009): 280–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.1.1.280.

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I review research on the behavior of the labor wedge, the ratio between the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for leisure and the marginal product of labor. According to competitive, market-clearing macroeconomic models, the ratio is easy to measure and should be equal to the sum of consumption and labor taxes. The observation that the wedge is higher in continental Europe than in the United States has proved useful for understanding the extent to which taxes can explain differences in labor market outcomes. The observation that the ratio rises during recessions suggests some failure of competitive, market-clearing macroeconomic models at business cycle frequencies. The latter observation has guided recent research, including work on sticky wage models and job search models. (JEL E24, E32, J64)

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Costabile, Lilia. "Istitutions for Social Well-Being: alcune risposte." QA Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, no. 3 (August 2009): 103–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/qu2009-003005.

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- Answering the round table participants, the author illustrates the project of this book and its main findings. While the book implies a focus on social policy, the contributors have brought to it their expertise not only in welfare economics but also in macroeconomic and monetary policy. This article outlines how social policy relates to these economic issues, and adopts an international political economy approach both in explaining hierarchies among countries, and in calling into question the "efficiency/equality trade off" as a useful instrument in comparing the economic performance of Europe and the US. Finally, the article discusses the issue of a possible convergence between the social models of Europe towards those of the best performing countries.EconLit Classification: D600, E120, F300, F400, F500Keywords: Welfare Economic, Growth, Globalization, Open Economy Macroeconomics, European Monetary UnionParole chiave: Welfare state, Crescita, Globalizzazione, Macroeconomia delle economie aperte, Unione monetaria europea

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24

Tjandrasa, Benny Budiawan. "Modeling Business Performance and Macroeconomic Factors to Explain Stock Market Returns in LQ45 Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)." Petra International Journal of Business Studies 2, no. 1 (June 27, 2019): 38–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.9744/ijbs.2.1.38-65.

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The purpose of this study is to confirm the effect of business performance and macroeconomics on stock returns in the industrial sector in the Indonesia Stock Exchange LQ45 index. This study examines eight variables from business performance and macroeconomics, namely: current ratio, debt-equity ratio, total asset turnover, return on equity, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and political stability to be tested for the effect on the stock return of the industrial sector. Using Generalized Least Square techniques, it is concluded that the Industrial sector in the Indonesia Stock Exchange is strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than business performance factors. This is common in capital markets which are mostly dominated by foreigners because foreign investors are very sensitive to changes in a country's macroeconomic conditions especially if it is related to political conditions. From the iteration results, there are two multivariate regression models which are statistically considered the most suitable. The originality of this study is to prove statistically that political stability is very influential on LQ45 stock returns in the industrial sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

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25

Koop, Gary. "Bayesian Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics with Big Data." Review of Economic Analysis 9, no. 1 (April 9, 2017): 33–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.15353/rea.v9i1.1434.

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Bayesian econometric methods are increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. They have been particularly popular among macroeconomists working with Big Data (where the number of variables under study is large relative to the number of observations). This paper, which is based on a keynote address at the Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis' 2016 Money-Macro-Finance Workshop, explains why this is so. It discusses the problems that arise with conventional econometric methods and how Bayesian methods can successfully overcome them either through use of prior shrinkage or through model averaging. The discussion is kept at a relatively non-technical level, providing the main ideas underlying and motivation for the models and methods used. It begins with single-equation models (such as regression) with many explanatory variables, then moves on to multiple equation models (such as Vector Autoregressive, VAR, models) before tacking the challenge caused by parameter change (e.g. changes in VAR coefficients or volatility). It concludes with an example of how the Bayesian can address all these challenges in a large multi-country VAR involving 133 variables: 7 variables for each of 19 countries.

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Gürkaynak, Refet S., and Jonathan H. Wright. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure." Journal of Economic Literature 50, no. 2 (June 1, 2012): 331–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.50.2.331.

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This paper provides an overview of the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a special emphasis on recent developments at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. The topic is important to investors and also to policymakers, who wish to extract macroeconomic expectations from longer-term interest rates, and take actions to influence those rates. The simplest model of the term structure is the expectations hypothesis, which posits that long-term interest rates are expectations of future average short-term rates. In this paper, we show that many features of the configuration of interest rates are puzzling from the perspective of the expectations hypothesis. We review models that explain these anomalies using time-varying risk premia. Although the quest for the fundamental macroeconomic explanations of these risk premia is ongoing, inflation uncertainty seems to play a large role. Finally, while modern finance theory prices bonds and other assets in a single unified framework, we also consider an earlier approach based on segmented markets. Market segmentation seems important to understand the term structure of interest rates during the recent financial crisis. (JEL E31, E43, E52, E58)

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Nakamura, Emi, and Jón Steinsson. "Identification in Macroeconomics." Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, no. 3 (August 1, 2018): 59–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.59.

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This paper discusses empirical approaches macroeconomists use to answer questions like: What does monetary policy do? How large are the effects of fiscal stimulus? What caused the Great Recession? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Identification of causal effects plays two roles in this process. In certain cases, progress can be made using the direct approach of identifying plausibly exogenous variation in a policy and using this variation to assess the effect of the policy. However, external validity concerns limit what can be learned in this way. Carefully identified causal effects estimates can also be used as moments in a structural moment matching exercise. We use the term “identified moments” as a short-hand for “estimates of responses to identified structural shocks,” or what applied microeconomists would call “causal effects.” We argue that such identified moments are often powerful diagnostic tools for distinguishing between important classes of models (and thereby learning about the effects of policy). To illustrate these notions we discuss the growing use of cross-sectional evidence in macroeconomics and consider what the best existing evidence is on the effects of monetary policy.

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Donaghy, Kieran P. "Implications for Regional Science of the “Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project”." International Regional Science Review 44, no. 3-4 (January 20, 2021): 363–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0160017620986590.

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The inability of macroeconomists to anticipate the Global Financial Crisis or reproduce it in their models has led to an important stock-taking of deficiencies in, and necessary modifications to, theories and models used pervasively by researchers and taught to graduate students. This stock-taking—the so-called “Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project,” organized by David Vines and Samuel Wills—has provided an opportunity for economy-wide modelers (who include regional scientists) to consider whether the theories and models they employ are adequate and appropriate to the tasks to which they put them. In this paper I provide a brief report on the project, retrace the development of macroeconomics, and summarize responses by prominent macroeconomists to a set of questions posed by organizers of the project, while drawing implications of these questions and responses for regional science. I then offer original suggestions from a regional scientist’s perspective on what is missing from the “benchmark” macro-model, how financial frictions can be introduced, how behavioral foundations might be modified, how heterogeneity of agents might be captured, and what new stylized facts need to be explained. I proceed to illustrate how several of the suggested changes can be integrated in economy-wide models by drawing on a study of the impacts of monetary policy on consumption by different income groups in Indonesia. I close the paper by posing a number of “big-picture questions” on the implications of the RMTP for economy-wide modelers and regional scientists to ponder and by offering a brief reflection and aspiration.

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Correa, Romar, and Shubhada Damle. "On “open-economy macroeconomics using models of closed systems”." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 6, no. 3 (2001): 207–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/s102602260100022x.

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International macroeconomic crises occur because of the enlargement of the dimension of the state space within which economies operate. Our focus is the recent financial turbulence worldwide in which (i) banks had a role to play and (ii) whole systems collapsed. We validate these propositions in the context of the qualitative theory of differential equations. The economic framework used is that of Wynne Godley.

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Figovsky, Oleg L., and Oleg G. Pensky. "Robots, Digital Twins of People, Dialectical Models of Society and Economics." Economic Strategies 144 (September 20, 2020): 58–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.33917/es-5.171.2020.58-67.

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Current mathematical models of economics practically do not take into account the human factor when making management decisions and applying them to practice. Therefore, the creation of a mathematical theory of general human psychology, the dialectical development of human society and macroeconomics are becoming particularly relevant at present. This paper describes the main results of the mathematical modeling of psychological behavior, so-called digital twins, which are psychological analogs of people. Theorems explaining the dangers of artificial intelligence for people from the mentality point of view are formulated. We propose general models of dialectical development of the virtual world for digital twins, human society and macroeconomics.

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V. Jituri, Vishwajeet. "MACROECONOMICS AFTER COVID-19 PANDEMIC." International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH 8, no. 7 (July 24, 2020): 38–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v8.i7.2020.581.

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Macroeconomics concerns with total income, employment, investment etc. at countries level. The modern economy follows 4-sector model; wherein there is engagement of household sector, firms sector, government sector and the foreign sector. The volume of exports and imports of a country in percentage of its GDP gives indication of their exposure to the foreign sector. Post Covid-19, there is tendency of many countries to follow 3-sector economic model and reduce their dependency on the foreign sector. This paper does overview of the economic models in view of the pandemic Covid-19.

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Singh, Gurbachan. "A Macroeconomic Model with Price Flexibility." South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance 7, no. 1 (March 29, 2018): 37–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2277978718760069.

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A simple macroeconomic model is used to show that the market failure to maintain macroeconomic stability can be due to (a) price rigidity or (b) price flexibility that allows false and abnormal prices to prevail. The macroeconomic literature typically considers the first case only; this article focuses on the second case. Besides the Keynesian fiscal policy, this article considers a Pigouvian tax–subsidy scheme; the latter can be used to correct each false price individually (this use in macroeconomics resembles the more familiar use in public economics). This helps alleviate the scarcity of instruments with policymakers. As in the writings of Keynes, price stability (or rigidity) here is a policy target rather than an assumption in the model. There has been a general need to reconsider macroeconomic models since the Great Recession of 2008; this article contributes in this endeavour. JEL: E12, E62, H20

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Dawid, Herbert, Philipp Harting, Sander van der Hoog, and Michael Neugart. "Macroeconomics with heterogeneous agent models: fostering transparency, reproducibility and replication." Journal of Evolutionary Economics 29, no. 1 (November 20, 2018): 467–538. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00191-018-0594-0.

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Stockhammer, Engelbert, and Karsten Kohler. "Learning from distant cousins? Post-Keynesian Economics, Comparative Political Economy, and the Growth Models approach." Review of Keynesian Economics 10, no. 2 (April 29, 2022): 184–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/roke.2022.02.03.

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Since the global financial crisis there has been growing interest in Post-Keynesian macroeconomic theory by political economists. In particular, the recent Growth Models approach in Comparative Political Economy (CPE) draws heavily on Kaleckian macroeconomics of demand regimes. This paper, firstly, traces the disintegration of nineteenth-century political economy and highlights that many streams within heterodox economics are a continuation of the political economy project, as are the sub-fields of CPE and International Political Economy in the social sciences. Secondly, the paper gives an overview of the Growth Models approach and its relation to Post-Keynesian Economics (PKE). It clarifies different strategies of identifying growth models empirically, namely GDP growth decomposition versus analysing growth drivers, and it highlights changes in growth models since the global financial crisis. Finally, it identifies opportunities and challenges that emerge from a continued engagement of PKE with political economy and with CPE in particular.

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Kirman, Alan. "ANTS AND NONOPTIMAL SELF-ORGANIZATION: LESSONS FOR MACROECONOMICS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 20, no. 2 (September 18, 2014): 601–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000339.

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This paper suggests that we need an alternative approach to economic modeling in general, and macroeconomic modeling in particular, if we are to capture salient characteristics of recent economic developments. Rather than focusing on models built on the basis of isolated, rational, optimizing agents, we should recognize that much simpler individuals following basic rules can collectively generate complex behavior. We have lessons to learn from studying the behavior of social insects for example. Noisy systems of interactive agents can generate aggregate phenomena such as sudden changes in the state of an economy or market, with no external shock. I give two examples of simple models of financial markets to illustrate this but would argue more generally that such models are indispensible if we are to understand aggregate economic phenomena.

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Chaplygin, Vladimir. "Technological models of development and their applicability to a Baltic states." WSB Journal of Business and Finance 53, no. 2 (January 1, 2019): 22–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/wsbjbf-2019-0019.

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Abstract Purpose – To study the possibilities of a theory to establish a modern theory of economic growth, including the factors of institutions and changes in technologies. These factors are a set of rules with high coercive force to the agents’ action, which form a particular mode/model of their adaptation, together with other institutions. Findings – The research results may enrich an economic theory and practice in the area of business models applicability in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The findings may assist an economic community to influence the general technological development within the national institutional systems. Practical implications –The so-called institutional macroeconomics as a practical discipline (which has a very close connection with behavioural macroeconomics) may assist to explore the economic growth in a Baltic States from the point of view of changing institutions (firms, business community), labour markets and information.

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Karim, Norzitah Abdul, Syed Musa Syed Jaafar Al-Habshi, and Muhamad Abduh. "MACROECONOMICS INDICATORS AND BANK STABILITY: A CASE OF BANKING IN INDONESIA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 18, no. 4 (July 1, 2016): 431–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v18i4.609.

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This paper provides new empirical evidence of the bank stability in relation to the macroeconomic indicator of Indonesia. The bank stability is first calculated using Z-score, and then regressed using Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model on the macroeconomic variables i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in US dollar, Interest rates (IR) in percentage and Consumer Price Index (CPI). To analyse further the long run relationship and the impact of bank stability, Cholesky standard deviation shock to the model, ARDL and Impulse Response Function (IRF) are used. These ARDL and IRF are carried out independently and repeated over data for three different models: (i) the commercial banks model, (ii) Islamic banks model, and (iii) the overall banking industry model. The empirical findings suggest long run relationship between the stability of commercial banks and macroeconomic factors. The findings also suggest the long run relationship between the stability of overall banking industry and macroeconomic factors. However, there is no evidence of long run relationship between the stability of Islamic banks and macroeconomics factors. Nevertheless, this finding is subject to the limitation of data, on the number of Islamic banks included in the test. The sample of Islamic banks was 5 banks from a total of 10 Islamic banks, due to insufficient data, as compared to the larger number of commercial banks taken into, as the sample.

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Botta, Alberto, Eugenio Caverzasi, and Daniele Tori. "THE MACROECONOMICS OF SHADOW BANKING." Macroeconomic Dynamics 24, no. 1 (July 10, 2018): 161–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s136510051800041x.

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We propose a simple short-run Post-Keynesian model in which the key aspects of shadow banking, namely securitization and the production of structured finance instruments, are explicitly formalized. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to broaden purely real-side Post-Keynesian models and their traditional focus on shareholder-value orientation, the financialization of non-financial firms, and the profit-led vs. wage-led dichotomy. We rather put emphasis on the role of financial institutions and rentier-friendly environment in determining the predominance of specific growth and distribution regimes. First, we illustrate the macroeconomic rationale of shadow banking practices. We show how, before the 2007–08 crisis, securitization and shadow banking allowed for an increase in profitability for the whole financial sector, while apparently keeping leverage under control. Second, we define a variety of shadow-banking-led regimes in terms of economic activity, productive capital accumulation, and income distribution.

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Maevsky, V. I. "Kondratiev Waves and Macroeconomics." AlterEconomics 19, no. 1 (2022): 166–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/altereconomics/2022.19-1.10.

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Contemporary mainstream macroeconomics tends to ignore the phenomenon of K-waves in dynamic economic modelling. The relevance of this article lies in the fact that it describes the conditions in which it is possible to implement K-waves in macro- and meso-economic modelling. The purpose of the study is to show that K-waves manifest themselves not in the dynamics of output (as macro-economists think) but in the behavior of technical, economic, and socio-economic indicators, reflecting the interaction of the two forces. The first force is the radical technological changes that accompany the transition from one technological mode to another and that trigger K-waves of technical and economic indicators, such as capital productivity. The second force is generated by the countercyclical response of the state and market to radical technological changes. The statistical analysis was used to identify the sinusoidal dynamics of the US capital intensity based on the data for 1946–2019. The research also applied a SMR model, which differs from orthodox macro-models in that it captures the effects of the coexistence of different generations of fixed capital. This model was used to calculate various variants of the interaction between the two above-mentioned forces. The calculations showed that the regulator has sufficiently powerful instruments to dampen the fluctuating dynamics of technical and economic indicators caused by shifts in technological modes at the GDP level. Thus, it is possible to use K-waves in macroanalysis. Moreover, such a possibility can be successfully implemented with the help of a heterodox model of switching reproduction mode. This fact signifies a noticeable advantage of heterodox economics, which recognizes K-waves, over mainstream macroeconomics.

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Azariadis, Costas. "Riddles and Models: A Review Essay on Michel De Vroey’s A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond." Journal of Economic Literature 56, no. 4 (December 1, 2018): 1538–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.20181439.

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This essay reviews Michel De Vroey’s important new book on the history of macroeconomics, which extends to business cycles an earlier book by the same author on the history of involuntary unemployment. The review also offers a broader nontechnical survey of the issues and models that make up modern macroeconomics, including a reckoning of what we have learned since John Maynard Keynes and of the discoveries that still lie ahead. ( JEL B22, B41, E12, E13, E32)

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Ascari, Guido, and Argia M. Sbordone. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation." Journal of Economic Literature 52, no. 3 (September 1, 2014): 679–739. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.679.

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Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. In this survey, we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers. We first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend-based inflation gaps. We then construct a Generalized New Keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation. In this model, an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations. This analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long-run inflation target. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E52, E58)

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Kurmann, André, and Christopher Otrok. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates." American Economic Review 103, no. 6 (October 1, 2013): 2612–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2612.

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We adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates. We find that one shock can explain the majority of unpredictable movements in the slope. Impulse response functions lead us to interpret this shock as news about future total factor productivity (TFP). By showing that “slope shocks” are essentially “TFP news shocks” we provide a new explanation for the relationship between the slope and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our results also provide a new empirical benchmark for structural models at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. (JEL E23, E43, E52, G12, G14)

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Barnett, William A. "EDITORIAL." Macroeconomic Dynamics 1, no. 1 (January 1997): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100597002009.

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Macroeconomics is at a crossroads. The call of real science is drawing it forward to a degree that is without precedent in the history of the field. But the field's origins are related to the exceptional policy relevance of macroeconomics, and the field continues to be pressed for answers to difficult policy problems that sometimes are beyond the current capabilities of the field. Continuing tensions exist between policy demands and the constraints of systematic, rigorous scientific development. A commonly mentioned example is the increasing size of structural macroeconometric models. While highly regarded in many governments, those massive models are greeted with skepticism by the best economics journals.

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Lawn, Philip A. "On Heyes' IS–LM–EE proposal to establish an environmental macroeconomics." Environment and Development Economics 8, no. 1 (December 23, 2002): 31–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x03000032.

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A decade has now passed since Daly made a plea for an environmental macroeconomics. Despite an expanding literature on ‘green’ national accounting and the efforts of ecological economists to measure the sustainable net benefits of a growing macroeconomy, it is only recently that Daly's plea has been adequately answered. This has been achieved with the incorporation by Heyes of an ‘environmental equilibrium’ or EE curve into the familiar IS–LM model. However, the IS–LM–EE model proposed by Heyes is incomplete. By extending Heyes' model to include the role of technological progress and the sustainable net benefits of economic activity, this paper shows that conclusions regarding the desirability of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies alter quite radically. Moreover, it sends out a clear message that environmental concerns should be incorporated into macroeconomic models. They should not be solely confined to microeconomics.

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Anh, V. V., C. C. Heyde, and N. N. Leonenko. "Dynamic models of long-memory processes driven by Lévy noise." Journal of Applied Probability 39, no. 4 (December 2002): 730–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1239/jap/1037816015.

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A class of continuous-time models is developed for modelling data with heavy tails and long-range dependence. These models are based on the Green function solutions of fractional differential equations driven by Lévy noise. Some exact results on the second- and higher-order characteristics of the equations are obtained. Applications to stochastic volatility of asset prices and macroeconomics are provided.

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Anh, V. V., C. C. Heyde, and N. N. Leonenko. "Dynamic models of long-memory processes driven by Lévy noise." Journal of Applied Probability 39, no. 04 (December 2002): 730–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200022002.

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A class of continuous-time models is developed for modelling data with heavy tails and long-range dependence. These models are based on the Green function solutions of fractional differential equations driven by Lévy noise. Some exact results on the second- and higher-order characteristics of the equations are obtained. Applications to stochastic volatility of asset prices and macroeconomics are provided.

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Libman, Emiliano. "A note on Heterodox Macroeconomics by Blecker and Setterfield." European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention 17, no. 3 (December 1, 2020): 286–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2020.03.02.

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Blecker and Setterfield's new textbook from 2019 presents an updated discussion of heterodox models of growth and distribution. This note clarifies and elaborates on three important issues discussed in the book. First, the text presents mainly one-sectoral and one-technique models, which is a reasonable set-up to keep things simple but not always enough to discuss some controversial issues. Second, continuous substitution is important but not essential for neoclassical growth theory. Third, the popular Goodwin model presented in the text does not produce ‘limit cycles.’

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Misztal, Anna, Magdalena Kowalska, Anita Fajczak-Kowalska, and Otakar Strunecky. "Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization in the Context of Macroeconomic Stabilization." Energies 14, no. 16 (August 23, 2021): 5197. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14165197.

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Decarbonization is an activity aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change and global warming. Ensuring macroeconomic stabilization is the basis for ecological action. The question is whether macroeconomic stabilization helps companies, institutions and countries act for decarbonization. This article presents research on the impact of components of macroeconomic stabilization on decarbonization and energy efficiency in the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the European Union from 1990 to 2020. We focus on the following countries, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain. The contribution to knowledge is using the pentagon of macroeconomic stabilization to assess macroeconomic stabilization’s impact on decarbonization and energy efficiency. According to the correlation coefficients, the Ordinary Least Squares and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression method, there is a statistically significant impact of components of macroeconomics stabilization on decarbonization and energy efficiency. Moreover, our models show a different strength and direction of relationships between the explained and explanatory variables. Research results confirm the necessity to coordinate the macroeconomic with environmental policy. We think that it is essential to use effective tools of economic support (European Union Emissions Trading System, environmental taxes) and greater pressure from European Union institutions on countries that emit harmful substances.

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Martin, Alberto, and Jaume Ventura. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide." Annual Review of Economics 10, no. 1 (August 2, 2018): 505–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053534.

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This review provides a guide to macroeconomic applications of the theory of rational bubbles. It shows that rational bubbles can be easily incorporated into standard macroeconomic models and illustrates how they can be used to account for important macroeconomic phenomena. It also discusses the welfare implications of rational bubbles and the role of policy in managing them. Finally, it provides a detailed review of the literature.

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Cherevatskyi, Danilo, and Roman Smirnov. "On the correlation between GDP and energy consumption in macroeconomic development." Economy of Industry 2, no. 94 (June 25, 2021): 59–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2021.02.059.

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There is substantial literature devoted to the study of the dependence between energy production and economic development. At the same time, the long-standing discussion of the relationship between the gross domestic product and consumption of primary energy resources, numbering thousands of publications, eventually degenerated into a dispute about econometric methods but did not give final results, which caused the need to resort to other approaches. This paper is an attempt to find a solution to this problem by the methods of theoretical mechanics and regression analysis of the relationship between GDP and energy production in macroeconomic development. Our case studies include the economies of Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. In each case, we characterize the gross domestic product, recalculated at purchasing power parity in 2017 prices, and the consumption of primary energy resources (coal, oil, natural gas, hydro and nuclear energy, energy from renewable sources). Within the framework of the study, it was assumed that the development of any national economy over time is its path in the economic space, and the consumption of primary energy resources is due to dynamic characteristics inherent in macroeconomics, in particular, "mass", which serves as a measure of the inertia of the country's economic complex, the presence of an informal sector, etc. The path, traversed by macroeconomics in the economic space, is the gross domestic product accumulated over time. The observation period is from 1990 to 2019, that is – 30 years. The use of the theory of classical mechanics, in particular – kinematics and dynamics, is justified by the fact that macroeconomics in its development requires the expenditure of energy resources, and this likens it to a machine that moves in a certain space that models a given economyсs. The article introduces methodological approaches to defining the conventional mass of macroeconomics, accelerating its movement, expenditure of energy resources for the functioning of the formal sector of the national economy, the efficiency of energy use in the formal sector.

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