Journal articles on the topic 'Macroeconomics – Methodology'
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Bidabad, Bijan. "Macroeconomics Needs Fresh Methodology of Theorization." Asian Finance & Banking Review 3, no. 2 (July 1, 2019): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/asfbr.v3i2.337.
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In this paper, we try to analyze the macroeconomic reasoning in different methodological issues. Subsequently, we try to touch some current macroeconomic debates on aggregations, relations, monetary and real sectors analyses. We assess that what we know about the behavior of macroeconomic variables is just our understanding from empiricism, and we have rarely found the laws of linkages among macroeconomic variables. We also conclude that successive theories have an intuitional foundation. It seems that to improve macroeconomic theories and policies, we need to be redirected to basic philosophical thinking about the macroeconomic theoretical foundation and try to rebuild a new concrete base for macroeconomics.
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Sims, Christopher A. "Macroeconomics and Methodology." Journal of Economic Perspectives 10, no. 1 (February 1, 1996): 105–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.1.105.
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Probabilistic reasoning is essential to discourse in economics. This is true in any discipline in which, as in economics, data collection is constrained and beliefs about the phenomena being studied are crucial to decisions that cannot be delayed. Some economists have recently turned away from form probabilistic inference, in part because of legitimate discontent with the prescriptions of specialized econometricians. However, this turning away has gone in mutually inconsistent directions and is in the long run unsustainable. It should be more widely recognized that careful applied work in macroeconomics, using steadily advancing probabilistic modeling techniques, has been steadily increasing.
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Backhouse, Roger, and Andrea Salanti. "The methodology of macroeconomics." Journal of Economic Methodology 6, no. 2 (July 1999): 159–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501789900000012.
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Rahmayuni, Siti, and Ardi Paminto. "Corporate Governance and Macroeconomics on The Financial Stability of Islamic Banks." IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) 4, no. 4 (July 31, 2021): 510–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.29138/ijebd.v4i4.1417.
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Purpose: This study discusses the influence of Corporate Governance and macroeconomics on financial stability in the Islamic banking sector.
Design/methodology/approach: This study employed a quantitative and Data analysis uses panel data regression.
Findings: while the independent variable in this study is Corporate Governance and Macroeconomics, with the results showing that Corporate Governance and macroeconomics have no partial effect..
Research limitations/implications: There are only two variables considered in this paper: corporate governance and macroeconomic.
Practical implications: partially corporate governance has no effect and macroeconomics has a negative effect.
Originality/value: TThis study calculates and finds out the truth of corporate governance and macroeconomic variables on financial stability.
Paper type: Research Paper
Keyword: Corporate Governance, Macroeconomics, Financial Stability, Inflation
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Galbács, Peter. "The methodology of contemporary macroeconomics." Economics and Business Review 3 (17), no. 3 (2017): 3–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2017.3.1.
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Lodewijks, John. "Macroeconometric Models and the Methodology of Macroeconomics." History of Economics Society Bulletin 11, no. 1 (1989): 33–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1042771600005767.
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“The stimulation given by the General Theory to the construction and testing of aggregative models may well prove to be Keynes's chief contribution to economics in the longer perspective of historical judgement.”
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ROSEN, RICHARD A. "IS THE IPCC’s 5TH ASSESSMENT A DENIER OF POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE?" Climate Change Economics 07, no. 01 (February 2016): 1640003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007816400030.
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This review summarizes what we know about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the period 2010 to 2100 as presented in the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. The review finds that little more, if anything, has been learned about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the long run since the 2007 IPCC report. Furthermore, while the 2014 report is quite self-critical about the serious weaknesses in its methodologies, the self-criticisms are not explicitly taken into account when the net macroeconomic costs of mitigation are reported. Nor do the research teams that run the integrated assessment models relied on in the report utilize any systematic methodology for assessing the inherent uncertainty in the macroeconomic results reported. Thus, the basic quantitative “findings” are misleading — and, perhaps, even deceptive — in part because they appear to preclude the possibility of large macroeconomic benefits from mitigating climate change.
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Heinemann, Frank, and Charles Noussair. "Macroeconomic experiments." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 6 (November 9, 2015): 930–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-09-2015-0171.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the upcoming symposium on experimental macroeconomics in the November issue. Design/methodology/approach – Experimental, survey of articles in the symposium. Findings – The paper describes how experiments can be used in macroeconomics. Originality/value – The paper discusses the rationale for using behavioral experiments in macroeconomics, and summarizes the papers in the symposium.
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BRESSER-PEREIRA, LUIZ CARLOS, and GILBERTO TADEU LIMA. "The irreducibility of macro to microeconomics: a methodological approach." Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 16, no. 2 (June 1996): 175–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571996-0956.
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ABSTRACT This paper criticizes the idea, widespread today, of the need to seek micro-foundations for macroeconomics. The authors argue that these two fields of economics, micro and macroeconomics, use different methodological approaches. Microeconomics deals with economic problems according to a logical-deductive methodology, while macroeconomics is more characterized by a historical-inductive approach. The attempt to reduce macroeconomics to microeconomics, or vice versa, brings only an impoverishment to science and economic debate, in which, ideally, there should be room for a great pluralism of ideas and theoretical currents.
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Marangos, John. "Teaching introductory macroeconomics during the Greek financial crisis." International Journal of Social Economics 46, no. 8 (August 12, 2019): 1032–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-09-2017-0421.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine how including the Greek financial crisis in teaching introductory macroeconomics benefits students. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on the responses of a recent survey administered to students at a university in Greece. Findings An eclectic approach that distinguishes various economic theories and methodologies, mainly neoclassical and Keynesian, can provide a pedagogical way of teaching introductory macroeconomics, allowing students to use their everyday personal experiences in determining the most “suitable” theory in explaining the crisis. Originality/value To the author’s knowledge, such an exercise of discovering students’ perceptions of teaching an introductory macroeconomics Substitute with course during the global financial crisis has not yet been attempted.
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Noor, Jawwad. "Contemporary Neoclassicism and its Methodology." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 6, no. 2 (July 1, 2001): 33–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2001.v6.i2.a2.
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The last 10 to 20 years have seen a rapid rise of a new school in Macroeconomics. One of the most interesting characteristics of this school is its use of non-econometric methods for predicting and calculating various variables of the economy. If traditional econometrics has lost some of the force it has had for decades, it is of interest to analyse the merits of the new system replacing it. Most importantly, it is of interest to study the methodological justification of this new system and the paradigm it rests on. The latter is the main purpose of this paper.
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Febriyanti, Annisa Rahma, and Atina Shofawati. "PENGARUH VARIABEL INTERNAL BANK DAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP KINERJA KEUANGAN (STUDI BANK UMUM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018)." Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan 7, no. 8 (August 25, 2020): 1538. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/vol7iss20208pp1538-1551.
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This research aims to find out the effect of bank internal variabel and macroeconomics variabel toward islamic banks financial performance proxied by Return on Assets (ROA) simultaneously and partially. Bank internal variables consist of capital structure, operational efficiency, asset quality, and liquidity, while macroeconomics variables consist of inflation and real GDP growth. Methodology that used in this study is quantitative approach using panel regression as technique analysis. Sampel used 11 Islamic Bank in Indonesia regulated by Otoritas Jasa Keuangan and launched legally before 2014. Data collected from annual report 2014 until 2018 from each banks. Result found that capital structure, operational efficiency, dan asset quality have significantly negative effects on Return on Assets (ROA). Liquidity has positive significantly effects on Return on Assets. Inflation and Real GDP Growth have insignificantly affects Islamic Commercial Bank’s Financial Performance measured by Return on Assets.Keywords: Return on Assets, Capital Structure, Operational Efficiency, Assets Quality, Liquidity, Macroeconomic, Islamic Commercial Bank
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Hesniati, Hesniati, Andreas Yoshiro Ogawa, Arvin Clarence, Chris Topher, and Jerly Engelina. "Pengaruh Inflation, Interest Rate, dan Exchange Rate terhadap IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada Tahun 2011-2021." Studi Ilmu Manajemen dan Organisasi 3, no. 1 (April 25, 2022): 261–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.35912/simo.v3i1.1078.
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Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a model and research the influence of macroeconomics ranging from inflation, exchange rates and interest rates towards the growth of the IHSG Research methodology: A total of 132 sample data were used and were collected from 2011 to 2021. Quantitative research methods were used in conjunction with the use of SPSS analysis tool. Results: The research shows that macroeconomic does indeed have an effect on the IHSG. Inflation didn’t have a significant effect on IHSG, Interest rates was found to have a significant negative effect on the IHSG, The exchange rate was found to have a significant effect on IHSG. Limitations: The sample data was collected from numerous statistics website, but there appears to be slight numerical inconsistencies between the data presented. As such, the sample data used in the research were collected from only the most credible sources. Contribution: Can be a reference for future research regarding the same subjects, variables and phenomenon. Keywords: 1. Inflation 2. Interest Rate 3. Exchange Rate 4. IHSG 5. Macroeconomics
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Basu, Moumita, and Ranjanendra Narayan Nag. "Open economy macroeconomics of commodity price fluctuation, sectoral inter-linkage and employment." Journal of Economic Studies 47, no. 6 (May 1, 2020): 1467–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-11-2018-0399.
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PurposeThis is a theoretical paper in the field of structuralist macroeconomics. The paper focuses on commodity price fluctuation which has emerged as one of the major macroeconomic factors with significant bearing on the relationship between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors.Design/methodology/approachThe paper develops a dual economy model consisting of an agricultural sector and an industrial sector. The commodity price is subject to the fluctuations due to the fact that stock of primary goods is an asset which is sensitive to speculations. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in stock of agricultural goods and price of agricultural goods under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined.FindingsThe paper shows that the balanced budget fiscal expansion, capital account liberalization and the agricultural expansion lead to expansion of the industrial sector as well as level of employment. The increase in world interest rate may lead to contraction of the industrial sector and depress employment.Originality/valueWe will consider the openness of the economy in explaining how different macroeconomic policies and capital account liberalization generate multiple cross effects on the inter-connectedness between agricultural and the non-agricultural sector. The paper will discuss the issue of employment generation in conjunction with commodity price fluctuation. We depart from the literature by using Taylor rule under which interest rate is fixed by the Central Bank such that money supply becomes endogenous.
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Tenny, Lester Zomatic. "The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy Behavior in Liberia: An Error Correction Methodology." Archives of Business Research 10, no. 2 (February 9, 2022): 17–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.102.11709.
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The debate of the size of government and economic growth has been popular especially in Africa. This study examined the relationship between fiscal variables, inflation and economic growth in Liberia. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed. Results from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis reveal that the response of inflation to growth in the Liberian economy over the study period, was weak, though significant and negative in the short run. However, it became positive and normalized in the medium and long runs. This means that inflation retarded growth only in the short run which is consistent with Barro (1996) empirical findings that inflation impact growth negatively and significantly. Also observed is the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. For the Liberian economy and despite the interruption of the war, government expenditure impact on growth is a short run positive event, In medium to long run, it has a negative effect. This means that government expenditure only spur growth in the short run slightly but did not bring about growth in the medium to long run. This makes Keynesian theory relative to the intervention of government through spending given rise to growth invalid for the Liberian economy in the long run. However, the impact of growth on expenditure in the medium and long run is significant and strong. This suggests that indeed Wagner’s Law of increasing State spending is valid for the Liberian economy. Hence, fiscal policy is still a mix in stirring economic growth in Liberia. This study recommends well stirred fiscal policies that would positively impact on long run development in the Liberian economy
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Lorne, Frank, and Pavla Hlozkova. "Creative collaborative learning for macroeconomics: C-span video clips in MBA classroom." International Journal of Learning and Teaching 8, no. 4 (November 10, 2017): 215–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/ijlt.v8i4.2658.
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Creative collaborative learning (CCL) is attempted in a classroom environment for studying macroeconomics for a global economy where the frontier of models and theories are often shaped by decision makers in global and national institutions. The methodology is suitable for student-centered learning MBA students who must put themselves through realistic situations, asking right questions and making decisions. Traditional top-down methodology of emphasizing model building and mathematical proofs in studying macroeconomics are not suitable at the MBA level. The proposed CCL model in this study entails the joint efforts of three groups of players—the professionals, the students and the instructor. Constructive knowledge is acquired not by drill and memorization of definitions, but by learning from the contexts in which terminologies are pragmatically applied, utilizing critical thinking. Students in an MBA class were asked to form country-focus teams, identifying country macroeconomic indicators as well as specific issues affecting infrastructure and performance of a country. Specific video clips were searched and reviewed in C-span video library. This search and review exercise were analyzed by evaluating their effectiveness in motivating interests, learning of abstract terminologies, professional manner and articulation method, and recognizing the role of important institutions through the speaking professionals. Our research shows that if students hear a terminology from a professional in a particular field, they connect the term with an experience of listening to the person and also with a face of the person and with the institution where he/she is affiliated with. An abstract concept becomes easier, more pragmatic, and more fun to learn beyond memorization. On that dimension, the researchers’ classroom experiment achieved good success. However, CCL demands evaluations for “in-the-moment” expressions and quotations that can “elevate thinking” in a student-centered learning environment. CCL is effective for some clips but not generally. Our research also looks into how design of learning activities can better achieve CCL.
Keywords: Creative Collaborative Learning, C-Span Video Clips, MBA Macroeconomics
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Lorne, Frank, and Pavla Hlozkova. "Creative Collaborative Learning for Macroeconomics: C-Span Video Clips in MBA Classroom." International Journal of Learning and Teaching 8, no. 4 (October 31, 2016): 215. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/ijlt.v8i4.595.
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Creative collaborative learning (CCL) is attempted in a classroom environment for studying macroeconomics for a global economy where the frontier of models and theories are often shaped by decision makers in global and national institutions. The methodology is suitable for student-centered learning MBA students who must put themselves through realistic situations, asking right questions, and making decisions. Traditional top-down methodology of emphasizing model building and mathematical proofs in studying macroeconomics are not suitable at the MBA level. The proposed CCL model in this study entails the joint efforts of three groups of players—the professionals, the students, and the instructor. Constructive knowledge is acquired not by drill and memorization of definitions, but by learning from the contexts in which terminologies are pragmatically applied, utilizing critical thinking. Students in an MBA class were asked to form country-focus teams, identifying country macroeconomic indicators as well as specific issues affecting infrastructure and performance of a country. Specific video clips were searched and reviewed in C-span video library. This search and review exercise were analyzed by evaluating their effectiveness in motivating interests, learning of abstract terminologies, professional manner and articulation method, and recognizing the role of important institutions through the speaking professionals. Our research shows that if students hear a terminology from a professional in a particular field, they connect the term with an experience of listening to the person and also with a face of the person and with the institution where he/she is affiliated with. An abstract concept becomes easier, more pragmatic, and more fun to learn beyond memorization. On that dimension, our classroom experiment achieved good success. However, CCL demands evaluations for “in-the-moment” expressions and quotations that can “elevate thinking” in a student-centered learning environment. CCL is effective for some clips but not generally. Our research also looks into how design of learning activities can better achieve CCL. Keywords: Creative Collaborative Learning; MBA Macroeconomics; C-Span Video Clips
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Navickas, Valentinas, and Mantas Svazas. "Macroeconomic Dimensions in the Clusterization Processes: Lithuanian Biomass Cluster Case." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 64, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 33–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2017-0003.
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AbstractThe Future production systems’ increasing significance will impose work, which maintains not a competitive, but a collaboration basis, with concentrated resources and expertise, which can help to reach the general purpose. One form of collaboration among medium-size business organizations is work in clusters. Clusterization as a phenomenon has been known from quite a long time, but it offers simple benefits to researches at micro and medium levels. The clusterization process evaluation in macroeconomic dimensions has been comparatively little investigated. Thereby, in this article, the clusterization processes is analysed by concentrating our attention on macroeconomic factor researches. The authors analyse clusterization’s influence on country’s macroeconomic growth; they apply a structure research methodology for clusterization’s macroeconomic influence evaluation and propose that clusterization processes benefit macroeconomic analysis. The theoretical model of clusterization processes was validated by referring to a biomass cluster case. Because biomass cluster case is a new phenomenon, currently there are no other scientific approaches to them. The authors’ accomplished researches show that clusterization allows the achievement of a large positive slip in macroeconomics, which proves to lead to a high value added to creation, a faster country economic growth, and social situation amelioration.
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Navickas, Valentinas, and Mantas Svazas. "Macroeconomic Dimensions in the Clusterization Processes: Lithuanian Biomass Cluster Case." Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics 64, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 33–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/aicue-2017-0003.
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Abstract The Future production systems’ increasing significance will impose work, which maintains not a competitive, but a collaboration basis, with concentrated resources and expertise, which can help to reach the general purpose. One form of collaboration among medium-size business organizations is work in clusters. Clusterization as a phenomenon has been known from quite a long time, but it offers simple benefits to researches at micro and medium levels. The clusterization process evaluation in macroeconomic dimensions has been comparatively little investigated. Thereby, in this article, the clusterization processes is analysed by concentrating our attention on macroeconomic factor researches. The authors analyse clusterization’s influence on country’s macroeconomic growth; they apply a structure research methodology for clusterization’s macroeconomic influence evaluation and propose that clusterization processes benefit macroeconomic analysis. The theoretical model of clusterization processes was validated by referring to a biomass cluster case. Because biomass cluster case is a new phenomenon, currently there are no other scientific approaches to them. The authors’ accomplished researches show that clusterization allows the achievement of a large positive slip in macroeconomics, which proves to lead to a high value added to creation, a faster country economic growth, and social situation amelioration.
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RAKAUSKIENĖ, Ona Gražina, and Eglė KRINICKIENĖ. "A MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE GENDER ASPECT IN ECONOMIC POLICY." Business, Management and Education 13, no. 1 (June 29, 2015): 46–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bme.2015.269.
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The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business) but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade), which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.
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Fakhrunnas, Faaza, Faiza Husnayeni Nahar, and Hilman Fikri Albana. "Effects of Macroeconomics Factors toward Efficiency in Banking." JEJAK 11, no. 2 (September 10, 2018): 390–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i2.16059.
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The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic factors toward efficiency in Islamic and Conventional Banking. Banking as one of components in financial system that highly contributes to the growth and development of the economy in a country, especially after establishment of the first Islamic bank in Indonesia at the year of 1992. Afterwards, Islamic banking began to develop and start to compete with conventional banking. Hence, in order to survive and do fair competitiveness, Islamic and Conventional banking have to maintain its efficiency. This study uses the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This study also analyze the macroeconomics factors namely inflation, interest rate of Bank indonesia and the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which affects the bank efficiency. Our data is obtained from annual financial statement published by each islamic and conventional bank and Bank Indonesia starting from 2007 to 2016. This study shows that conventional banks have higher efficiency than Islamic banks, while crisis in 2008 had no significant effect on the efficiency of Islamic and conventional banking. However, a decrease in the level of efficiency that occurs in conventional banking indicates that conventional banking is more sensitive to the crisis.
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Uddin, Ijaz. "Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan." Economic Consultant 34, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 33–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.46224/ecoc.2021.2.4.
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Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.
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Pandey, Radhika, Ila Patnaik, and Ajay Shah. "Dating business cycles in India." Indian Growth and Development Review 10, no. 1 (April 10, 2017): 32–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/igdr-02-2017-0013.
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Purpose This paper aims to present a chronology of Indian business cycles in the post-reform period. In India, earlier, macroeconomic shocks were about droughts and oil prices. Economic reforms have led to an interplay of a market economy, financial globalisation and decisions of private firms to undertake investment and hold inventory. This has changed the working of the business cycle and has raised concerns about business-cycle stabilisation. In the backdrop of these developments, the macroeconomics research agenda requires foundations of measurement about business-cycle phenomena. One element of this is the identification of dates of business-cycle turning points. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the growth-cycle approach to present the chronology of business cycles. The paper uses the Christiano–Fitzgerald (CF) filter to extract the cyclical component and shows the robustness of the findings to the contemporary methods of cycle extraction. It then applies the Bry–Boschan algorithm to identify the dates of peaks and troughs. Findings The paper finds three periods of recession. The first recession was from 1999-Q4 to 2003-Q1; the second recession was from 2007-Q2 to 2009-Q3; and the third recession ran from 2011-Q2 till 2012-Q4. These results are robust to the choice of filter and to the choice of the business-cycle indicator. These dates suggest that, on average, expansions in India are 12 quarters in length and recessions run for 9 quarters. The paper offers evidence of change in the nature of cycles. Originality/value Dates of business-cycle turning points are a critical input for academic and policy work in macroeconomics. The paper offers robust estimation of the business-cycle turning points in the post-reform period using contemporary techniques of cycle extraction. This work helps lay the foundations for downstream macroeconomics research by academicians and policymakers.
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Supriyanto, Supriyanto, Mohammad Benny Alexandri, and Nurillah Jamil Achmawati Novel. "The Effect of Investment Risk, Macroeconomics on Stock Prices in IPO Companies during the Covid-19 Pandemic." GATR Journal of Accounting and Finance Review (GATR-AFR) Vol. 6 (4) January - March 2022 6, no. 4 (March 30, 2022): 17–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/afr.2022.6.4(2).
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Objective - This study investigates the effect of investment risk, macroeconomics on stock prices in IPO companies during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methodology/Technique - Financial statements are used to collect sample secondary data. A total of 74 samples from data collection were then used to test hypotheses using SmartPLS software. Findings - The results showed that the Current Assets to Total Assets Ratio (CATAR) and PBV (Price to Book Value) are still new topics that provide great benefits for investing in IPO companies. Novelty - This study adds to the body of knowledge on investment risk and macroeconomics by elucidating the effect of investment on stock prices. Additionally, it provides an overview of the sources of information that can be used to inform investment decisions and to anticipate misinformation received, allowing investors to earn more money with less risk. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Investment Risk; Macroeconomics; Stock Prices; Covid-19 JEL Classification: G31, E02, E31, E60
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Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa, Lisana B. Martinez, and Antonio Terceño. "Are European sovereign bond spreads in concordance with macroeconomic variables evolution?" Kybernetes 46, no. 1 (January 9, 2017): 85–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-06-2016-0121.
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Purpose The last great financial crisis which arose in the middle of 2007 in the USA produced contagion effects over others economies. The purpose of this paper is focused on analyzing the evolution of a set of economic variables of 17 European countries since 1991 until 2013. Sovereign bond spreads are also considered to compare the incidence of the financial crisis over the economies considering macroeconomics fundamentals and fixed bonds. Design/methodology/approach Self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to achieve the purpose of the research. With this methodology, it is possible to analyze the evolution of the macroeconomic fundamentals of each country, obtaining particular and general conclusions according to the position of each country in the SOM. Moreover, the countries are compared between them and with its respective sovereign bond spreads level for each year of analysis. Findings The impact of the crisis is different between the countries was analyzed. Belonging to the European Monetary Union is an interesting characteristic of some of the most affect economies. Research limitations/implications This research presents wide implications for the economies to control the most vulnerable economic variables in front of financial crisis to prevent the contagion effect. The inclusion of more economic variables and countries could enhance the study. Originality/value This research analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic variables and sovereign bond spreads using an infrequent methodology. The results obtained are valuable because they highlight how the present crisis has differently affected the European countries.
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Cincotti, Silvano, Marco Raberto, and Andrea Teglio. "Why do we need agent-based macroeconomics?" Review of Evolutionary Political Economy 3, no. 1 (March 29, 2022): 5–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s43253-022-00071-w.
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AbstractWe are entering the third decade of the twenty-first century with profound uncertainties and crucial challenges for the world economy. Phenomena like climate change, digital transformation, migration, demographic changes, and the ongoing COVID pandemic need to be understood and promptly addressed. We argue that the agent-based approach in economics is well suited to tackle these topics, because of its capacity to integrate the “micro” and “macro” dimensions by modelling the network of interactions among heterogeneous economic agents and their aggregate outcomes. This paper explains why the agent-based methodology is needed to overcome the limitations of the neoclassical approach in economics, which has not been able to properly address those challenges. To do so, the paper retraces the main stages of the scientific evolution in a general historical and epistemological perspective, showing how the paradigm of reductionism, which led to extraordinary advances after the scientific revolution of the seventeenth century, is less effective when addressing the main challenges ahead. On the other hand, the sciences of chaos theory and complex systems can provide the economic discipline with more suitable instruments to face those challenges. Finally, the paper briefly presents the contributions of the special issue, which use applications of agent-based models to study the main problems of our times.
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Sanusi, Muhammad, Jihad Jihad, and Imron Mawardi. "Impact of Macroeconomic Variabel and Global Indices on Islamic Stock Index: The Case Indonesia." Ihtifaz: Journal of Islamic Economics, Finance, and Banking 4, no. 1 (December 31, 2020): 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.12928/ijiefb.v4i1.2628.
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Introduction to The Problem: The movement of the Islamic stock index can be influenced by changes in domestic macroeconomic conditions, not only domestic macroeconomics but also influenced by the stock markets of other countries.Purpose/Objective Study: The main objective of this study is to analyze the influence of the domestic macroeconomic and global stock indices on the Indonesian sharia stock index.Design/Methodology/Approach: This study uses a quantitative methodology with secondary data. The data sample method is saturated sample that all members of the population are used to be the research sample. The type of research data is monthly time series with a time period from May 2011 - July 2019, the selection of the Vactor Error Correction Model (VECM) research method based on the stationarity of the data on the first difference and the existence of cointegration models.Findings: The results showed in the short term all variables did not show a significant effect. In the long run, interest rates have a negative effect, while the exchange rate shows a positive effect on the movement of Islamic stock price indexes. Global stock indices such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index show a negative effect, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index shows a positive effect. While the Nikkei 225 index did not show a significant effect on the Indonesian Islamic stock index.
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Davidson, Laura, and Walter E. Block. "A critique of definitions in economics from an Austrian perspective: macroeconomics." Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 32, no. 1 (May 16, 2016): 2–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jeas-08-2015-0028.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to clarify definitions in economics. Design/methodology/approach – To apply the insights of Austrian economics to terms widely used in the profession. Findings – The authors find that the Austrian approach brings clarification to communication. Originality/value – The authors know of no other such attempt. Therefore this paper presumably has some originality.
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Hendriyetty, Nella, and Bhajan S. Grewal. "Macroeconomics of money laundering: effects and measurements." Journal of Financial Crime 24, no. 1 (January 3, 2017): 65–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfc-01-2016-0004.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to review studies focusing on the magnitude of money laundering and their effects on a country’s economy. The relevant concepts are identified on the basis of discussions in the literature by prominent scholars and policy makers. There are three main objectives in this review: first, to discuss the effects of money laundering on a country’s macro-economy; second, to seek measurements from other scholars; and finally, to seek previous findings about the magnitude and the flows of money laundering. Design/methodology/approach In the first part, this paper outlines the effects of money laundering on macroeconomic conditions of a country, and then the second part reviews the literature that measures the magnitude of money laundering from an economic perspective. Findings Money laundering affects a country’s economy by increasing shadow economy and criminal activities, illicit flows and impeding tax collection. To minimise these negative effects, it is necessary to quantify the magnitude of money laundering relative to economic conditions to identify the most vulnerable aspects of money laundering in a country. Two approaches are used in this study: the first is the capital flight approach, as money laundering will cause flows of money between countries; the second is the economic approach for measuring money laundering through economic variables (e.g. tax revenue, underground economy and income generated by criminals) separately from tax evasion. Originality/value The paper offers new insights for the measurement of money laundering, especially for developing countries. Most methods in quantifying money laundering have focused on developed countries, which are less applicable to developing countries.
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Toroptsev, E. L., A. S. Marakhovskii, and R. R. Duszynski. "Intersectoral modeling of transients." Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice 19, no. 3 (March 30, 2020): 564–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.19.3.564.
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Subject. The article considers structural transition processes in macroeconomics. Objectives. The aim is to present our own concept and mathematical tools to study structural transitions in macroeconomics. Dynamic inter-industry balance enables to formalize the problem in the form of a Koshi task for ordinary differential equations. Methods. The methodology components include the basics of inter-industry and numerical analysis and modeling of linear or linearized dynamic systems, integral criteria of system dynamics, stability and quality of transitional processes. We also apply a technique for analyzing the own dynamic properties of economic systems that solve the same sustainability-related challenges, but on the basis of algebraic methods and criteria. Results. We offer methods and mathematical tools for numerical study of sustainability and structural dynamics of macroeconomics. These methods are focused on integrating high-dimensional balance models and integral criteria for the quality of transition periods in the economy. The paper unveils advantages of calculating the matrix exponential and its integral in tasks involving analysis and forecasting, over other numerical methods. The proposed method permits to effectively build a difference scheme to integrate with any step of observation of the solution. In this case, the work step of integration is generated in the algorithm automatically, depending on changes in gross output. Conclusions. The paper presents a unique option to analyze transitional processes in macroeconomics. It is designed to develop and evaluate the results of pursued economic policy.
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Kharohmayani, Desy, and Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono. "The Impact of Banking Policies to the Macroprudential Policy." JEJAK 13, no. 2 (October 27, 2020): 367–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v13i2.25754.
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The interaction between banks and macroeconomics is of crucial importance to financial stability. This study aims to answer the question of how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted to banking variables or vice versa. The study investigated the impact of the banking policies, the principal component of analysis (PCA) of banking quality indicators (CAMEL), and BI's rate to the aggregate of GDP and GDP priority sectors. The methodology used is the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to observe the endogeneity of the observed variables. The results show that there is substantial heterogeneity in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, caused by CAR, CAMEL and BI rate. In the short run, we find that the impulse response functions of aggregate GDP and GDP per sector of priority to the shock of the CAR decrease and close to zero in the long term. Our findings align with the expected effects that the CAMEL has implications to the decline of GDP of priority sector. Finally, we find that the impulse response of aggregate GDP and GDP of the priority sector to monetary policy shock decreases in the short run and near to zero in the more extended period
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Juselius, Katarina. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey." Econometrics 9, no. 1 (February 1, 2021): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/econometrics9010005.
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This survey paper discusses the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (CVAR) methodology and how it has evolved over the past 30 years. It describes major steps in the econometric development, discusses problems to be solved when confronting theory with the data, and, as a solution, proposes a so-called theory-consistent CVAR scenario. A number of early CVAR applications are motivated by the urge to find out why the empirical results did not support Milton Friedman’s concept of monetary inflation. The paper also proposes a method for combining partial CVAR analyses into a large-scale macroeconomic model. It argues that an empirically-based approach to macroeconomics preferably should be based on Keynesian disequilibrium economics, where imperfect knowledge expectations replace so called rational expectations and where the financial sector plays a key role for understanding the long persistent movements in the data. Finally, the paper argues that the CVAR is potentially a candidate for Haavelmo’s “design of experiment for passive observations” and provides several illustrations.
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Orekhovsky, P. "Structuralism and the search for truth (On the book "Origins: Qualitative changes in economic reality and economic science")." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 2 (February 20, 2016): 141–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-2-141-149.
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This review of the almanakh Istoki (Origins) traces the discussions between well-known economists happening both within and between various parts of the book. These different positions in macroeconomics, economic methodology, history of economic thought and economic history demonstrate the multidimensionality of the book prompting its readers to abandon logical empiricism and belief that there is a single "true" theory.
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Starr-Glass, David. "First steps into the metaphoric wilderness of macroeconomics." On the Horizon 22, no. 4 (September 23, 2014): 229–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/oth-11-2013-0060.
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Purpose – The purpose of this article is to analyze the decline of two central metaphors of macroeconomics, economics and markets, and suggests ways in which metaphoric vigor can be initiated to promote economic reflection, inter-disciplinary collaboration, and more productive engagement with the broader society. Economics and markets can be described as dead metaphors which have ceased to provide any metaphoric advantage or potential but which nevertheless remain central to economic discourse. At a time when economics is coming under societal scrutiny and being asked to explain its assumptions, predictive ability and social impact, the perceived distance and sterility of economic language presents a significant problem. Design/methodology/approach – The central approach is an analysis of the ways in which metaphor come into being, provide regenerative insights and communicate open and creative discourse. Metaphor theory is introduced, as are theoretical considerations on the decline of conceptual metaphor through over familiarization. Findings – Metaphor in economics is underexplored and this article suggests that a more engaged and creative approach will provide benefit within the discipline and will be necessary to sustain the ongoing discourse with those outside the field. Originality/value – This article provides new insight into the problems associated with the failure to recognize and to resuscitate metaphor in macroeconomics. It provides original perspectives on the problem, and presents novel suggestions for reducing the communication difficulties that metaphor failure has produced, particularly in communicating economic perspectives with the broader society.
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Al-Jarhi, Mabid Ali. "An economic theory of Islamic finance." ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance 9, no. 2 (December 4, 2017): 117–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijif-07-2017-0007.
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Purpose This paper aims to provide an economic rationale for Islamic finance. Design/methodology/approach Its methodology is simple. It starts with listing the contributions to economic analysis relevant to the required rationale in the theories of banking, finance, price, money and macroeconomics, to identify the main rationale for Islamic finance. A concise description of the author’s model for an Islamic economic system, within which Islamic finance can be operational, is provided. Findings The paper finds distinct advantages of Islamic finance, when properly applied within the author’s model. Islamic finance can therefore be a candidate as a reform agenda for conventional finance. It opens the door for significant monetary reform in currently prevalent economic systems. Research limitations/implications The first limitation of the paper is that the distinct benefits of Islamic finance are all of macroeconomic types which are external to Islamic banking and finance institutions. They are therefore not expected to motivate such institutions to apply Islamic finance to the letter, without regulators interference to ensure strict application. The second limitation is the necessity to set up enabling institutional and regulatory arrangements for Islamic finance. Originality/value The results are unique as they challenge the received doctrine and provide non-religious rationale for Islamic finance.
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Alonso, Asier Arcos, María Garcia-Alvarez, and Amaia Garcia Azpuru. "Macroeconomics and active methodologies in higher education: A possible pairing and a possible binomial." Cypriot Journal of Educational Sciences 17, no. 1 (January 31, 2022): 203–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/cjes.v17i1.6695.
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This article presents an experience of teaching innovation based on the application of active methodologies in economics and business education at the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU). The proposal builds on a competency teaching approach, whose objectives were to verify the effectiveness of these methodologies in the area of economics in order to reconnect the university with its social environment and enhance the competency and student-learning values. During the 2019–2020 academic year, a multidisciplinary process based on the Problem-Based Learning methodology was developed in the Introduction to Economics II: Principles of Macroeconomics course. Various teaching techniques were applied to encourage participation, autonomous student work, group work, as well as elements of social responsibility and values education. The results of the process collected quantitatively and qualitatively show improvements in the acquisition of knowledge by students and greater appropriation levels linked to greater motivation. However, reluctance and misgivings about the process also arose, which would require further work in class and a leading role by students. Greater planning, time and coordination requirements were also limiting factors for the teaching staff; however, the relevance of applying the methodology sequentially is suggested.
Keywords: Active methodology, higher education, social and ethical responsibility, active learning, skills, economy.
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Danthine, Samuel, and Michel De Vroey. "THE INTEGRATION OF SEARCH IN MACROECONOMICS: TWO ALTERNATIVE PATHS." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 39, no. 4 (October 5, 2017): 523–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837216000651.
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Our paper analyzes and compares two attempts at integrating unemployment in macroeconomics. The first, due to Peter Diamond, consists in a search model exhibiting multiple equilibria and wherein cycles may be produced. The second is due to David Andolfatto and Monika Merz, who, more or less simultaneously, constructed models enabling the integration of the matching function into RBC modeling. In the first sections, we present the methodology upon which our paper is based—Axel Leijonhufvud’s decision-tree insight—and briefly describe these three economists’ motivations and the context in which they were working. We continue with recounting the birth and further development of the search paradigm upon which Diamond’s, Andolfatto’s, and Merz’s attempts were based. These preliminaries settled, we address the heart of the paper, the critical analysis of their respective contributions. Our interest lies specifically in how they made their way in the development of the field. We explain why Diamond’s model, which ambitioned to rival Robert Lucas’s explanation of business fluctuations, did not live up to its author’s expectations. Andolfatto’s and Merz’s project was less ambitious, yet their model became an established component of the RBC program—but at the price of abandoning several constitutive traits of the search approach.
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Marien, Stacey. "Book Review: Real-World Decision Making: an Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics." Reference & User Services Quarterly 55, no. 4 (July 1, 2016): 325. http://dx.doi.org/10.5860/rusq.55n4.325b.
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Altman is the Dean and Head of School of the Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle in Callaghan, Australia. His areas of research include behavioral economics, x-inefficiency theory, institutional change, economics of cooperatives, economic history, methodology, and empirical macroeconomics. He has previously edited the Handbook of Contemporary Behavioral Economics (Routledge, 2006) and authored Behavioral Economics for Dummies (Wiley, 2012) and Economic Growth and the High Wage Economy (Routledge, 2012).
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Reiss, Julian. "The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics by KEVIN D. HOOVER. Cambridge University Press 2001, xii + 186 pages." Economics and Philosophy 20, no. 1 (April 2004): 226–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s026626710423139x.
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Campos, Octávio Valente, Wagner Moura Lamounier, and Rafael Morais de Souza. "The composition of firms' indebtedness and the macroeconomy of capital." Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil 21 (September 9, 2022): e3296. http://dx.doi.org/10.16930/2237-7662202232962.
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The objective of this research is to analyze the influence that monetary policies exert on the composition of the indebtedness of Brazilian corporations. From this objective, 2 hypotheses derive. The first analyzes the sample aggregate and the second directs the tests to the productive sectors. The study sample is composed of 220 companies: 84 of consumer goods, 89 of capital goods and 47 of public utility. The data collected refer to the years 2009 to 2019. The methodology used for data analysis is through panel data models, using the GMM approach. According to the results, it can be concluded - in the light of the macroeconomics of capital - that the composition of the firms' indebtedness can be determined by the market moments defined by the monetary policies, so that such influence is different depending on the sector to which the companies are located in the production chain. These results complement the literature that studies the impacts of monetary policies and macroeconomic variables on corporate finance, mainly through econometric modeling based on accounting data.
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Najmudin, Ekaningtyas Widiastuti, and Ghifari Taufiqurrahman. "INVESTIGATING THE ROLE OF ISSUING CORPORATE ISLAMIC BOND AND SELECTED DETERMINANTS ON FIRM'S PROFITABILITY." Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews 8, no. 5 (September 7, 2020): 48–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.855.
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Purpose of the study: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of corporate Islamic bond issuance, internal and macroeconomic factors on firm's profitability. The internal factors involved potentially as determinants of profitability are leverage and firm size. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic factors are economic growth and the inflation rate.
Methodology: The sample is taken from companies listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and selected from 24 companies. The sample is 21 companies whose data completely and issued the Islamic bond during the period 2012 until 2018. Moreover, the panel data regression was employed as an analytical tool to test the data.
Main Findings: The results suggest that Islamic bond issuance and financial leverage have a negative influence on profitability, firm size has no significant influence on profitability, and economic growth and inflation rate have a positive influence on profitability.
Applications of this study: A firm, as well as an investor, must consider the lower Islamic bond issuance and debt proportion. Besides, they should anticipate decreased economic growth and the inflation rate.
Novelty/Originality of this study: This study observes evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) that develops the previous studies and adds references for further studies about Islamic bond issuance. Also, it combines Islamic fund source and firm-specific internal as well as macroeconomic factors (economic growth and inflation rate) macroeconomics factors insert what are the macroeconomic factor which affects the profitability of the business to give a clear picture of how the effect of all factors on profitability.
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Bidzhoyan, Davit S. "Stress Testing as a Banking Risk Assessment Tool: A Review of International Practice, Methods and Methodology." Economics of Contemporary Russia, no. 4 (December 31, 2020): 99–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2020-4(91)-99-117.
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Stress testing is a broad research area, at the interference of many disciplines (finance, banking, econometrics, macroeconomics, microeconomics, mathematical analysis etc.), and is of interest to both theoretical scientists and practitioners. The usefulness of this approach became evident after the financial crisis of 2007–2009, which prompted many researchers to develop and constantly improve stress-testing methodologies, using which it is possible to accurately forecast the behavior of banks and the financial sector in crisis periods. It allows banks to assess the scale of losses and timely take the necessary measures to strengthen the financial condition. Today, economic science has the biggest arsenal of stress testing methods that allow us to assess potential losses in crisis periods that correspond to extreme but plausible events. The stress testing methodologies cover all-important types of risks (credit, interest rate risk, liquidity risk etc.), as well as specific risks. The presence of a huge number of stress testing methods guarantees its versatility and depth, which could be explained by the attempt using this methods to create a behavior model of banks, which are quite complex in structure and functionality. The purpose of this study is to provide a concise, but at the same time comprehensive classification of stress testing methods, as well as a review of the current approaches to stress testing or to solving its various aspects (for example, developing stress scenarios) presented by scientists, international organizations, central banks and other interested parties. This paper is an introduction to the vast field of analytics – stress testing, and is oriented to banking and financial analysts, macroeconomists who want either to familiarize themselves with stress testing as a tool for assessing banking risks, or to systematize all the accumulated knowledge in this area in order to better understand economic processes.
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Rafikov, Ildus, and Elmira Akhmetova. "Methodology of integrated knowledge in Islamic economics and finance: collective ijtihād." ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance 12, no. 1 (March 23, 2020): 115–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijif-02-2019-0034.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss the methodology of integrated knowledge in Islamic economics and finance and seek to offer collective ijtihād as one way to find solutions to the existing problems in the field. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on the idea of multidisciplinarity or interdisciplinarity, which uses not only traditional sources of Islam and economics, such as uṣūl al-fiqh, fiqh mu’amalat, econometrics, statistics, microeconomics and macroeconomics but also looks into behavioural and natural sciences for inspiration and solutions. This paper is constructed using the methodology of “the two readings”, as promoted by the International Institute of Islamic Thought, and which combines the revealed and the existential sciences. Findings This paper proposes the collaborative multidisciplinary methodology as the main approach to studying the modern problems and challenges, as well as for finding solutions in the fields of Islamic economics and finance. Practical implications Studying and researching issues, particularly in the field of Islamic economics and finance, from an interdisciplinary perspective, effectively broadens practical applications and possibilities in Islamic finance. Originality/value This paper contributes to social sciences, especially the field of Islamic finance, and calls upon researchers to engage in multidisciplinary studies.
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Stengos, Thanasis. "Nonparametric Econometric Methods and Applications." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 12, no. 4 (November 30, 2019): 180. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040180.
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An area of very active research in econometrics over the last 30 years has been that of non- and semi-parametric methods. These methods have provided ways to complement more-traditional parametric approaches in terms of robust alternatives, as well as preliminary data analysis. The present Special Issue collects a number of new contributions, both theoretical and empirical that cover a wide spectrum of areas such as financial economics, microeconomics, macroeconomics, labor economics, and economic growth as well as statistical theory and methodology.
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Nugraheni, Ni Nyoman Alit, Pius Bumi Kellen, and Petrus Emanuel de Rozari. "The effect of financial behavior, financial literacy, and macroeconomics on stock investment decision-making in East Nusa Tenggara." Annals of Management and Organization Research 3, no. 1 (August 25, 2021): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.35912/amor.v3i1.1183.
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Abstract: Purpose: This study discusses the influence of financial behavior, financial literacy, and macroeconomics on stock investment decision-making in East Nusa Tenggara. Research Methodology: This research is associative research with a quantitative approach. Distributing questionnaires to 225 investors who were used as research samples collected research data. The data obtained were analyzed by multiple linear regression analysis. Results: Partially or simultaneously independent variables affect the dependent variable in the form of investment decisions positively and significantly. Only financial literacy does not have a significant influence on investment decisions Limitations: This research was conducted during the Covid-19 pandemic, where everything that was done in this research was done without meeting directly with the informants. In addition, the variables studied in this study are dynamic and complex in which the results and thoughts can change at any time according to existing conditions. Contribution: This research becomes scientific information about investor behavior in making investment decisions specifically in the East Nusa Tenggara region. Keywords: 1. Behavioral Finance 2. Financial Literacy 3. Macroeconomics 4. Investment Decisions
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Stübinger, Johannes, and Katharina Adler. "How to Identify Varying Lead–Lag Effects in Time Series Data: Implementation, Validation, and Application of the Generalized Causality Algorithm." Algorithms 13, no. 4 (April 16, 2020): 95. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/a13040095.
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This paper develops the generalized causality algorithm and applies it to a multitude of data from the fields of economics and finance. Specifically, our parameter-free algorithm efficiently determines the optimal non-linear mapping and identifies varying lead–lag effects between two given time series. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences—structural breaks in their relationship are also captured. A large-scale simulation study validates the outperformance in the vast majority of parameter constellations in terms of efficiency, robustness, and feasibility. Finally, the presented methodology is applied to real data from the areas of macroeconomics, finance, and metal. Highest similarity show the pairs of gross domestic product and consumer price index (macroeconomics), S&P 500 index and Deutscher Aktienindex (finance), as well as gold and silver (metal). In addition, the algorithm takes full use of its flexibility and identifies both various structural breaks and regime patterns over time, which are (partly) well documented in the literature.
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Artamonova, L. N. "POST-KEYNESIANISM: EVOLUTION OF KEYNESIAN MACROECONOMICS IN THE 20TH CENTURY." MGIMO Review of International Relations, no. 6(51) (December 28, 2016): 106–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2016-6-51-106-114.
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The article analyzes the development of J.M. Keynes's theory in the second half of the twentieth century due to the works within the new direction of economical science - Post-Keynesianism. It is shown that in free-market economy Keynesian school based of the original Keynesian methodology requires additional studies of state regulation principles and take into account the qualitative changes in the market mechanisms. It is shown that post-Keynesianism has had a significant impact on the subject of research and has taken into account the principles of free enterprise, market pricing, level of price dynamics. All this principles allow realizing the principle of self-regulation of the market mechanism. New approaches to the post-Keynesians role of the state and state regulation combined with the freedom of entrepreneurship are analyzed. Taking into account real changes and economic crises it is necessary to analyze the main directions of development of the Keynesian model of economic regulation with a view to their effective use in shaping economic policy. There are considered the basic directions of development of post-Keynesianism such as Neo-Ricardian theory of value and prices of goods based on direct costs of production in the framework of macroeconomic model by P. Sraffa, information theory of "fundamental" uncertainty of the future by R. Klauder and the theory of financial instability hypothesis by H. Minsky. Their differences within the framework of post-Keynesianism under the subject specialization are considered. It is noted that the development of PostKeynesianism allows to present the latest research in modern Keynesian school within an interdisciplinary approach to economical problems.
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Ali, Asghar. "DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY IN PAKISTAN." Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research 1, no. 2 (December 30, 2018): 17–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.37605/pjhssr.1.2.2.
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This research is about the impact of determinants of poverty in Pakistan. In this paper five independent macroeconomics variables that are government expenditure, budget deficit, unemployment rate, exchange rate and inflation rate are studied. In methodology, we have applied the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The time series data is used which consist of 19 observation that is 1995 to 2013 which we collect from different sources such as (WDI) and (The Global Economy.Com). Through this model we inquired the effect of Government Expenditure, Budget Deficit, Unemployment Rate, Exchange Rate, and Inflation Rate on poverty in Pakistan. Government expenditure and budget deficit have inverse relationship while unemployment has a direct relationship with poverty in Pakistan. Furthermore in this model we seek the impact of inflation rate and exchange rate which help us show negative relationship with poverty while inflation has also a direct relationship with it. In this thesis all of the five variables have been used with three out of five have negative and the other two have a positive relationship with poverty. Theoretically we have proved the relationship of these macroeconomics variables with the help of reference articles by collecting historical data according to Pakistan perspective on these variables.
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Boumans, Marcel. "The Engineering Tools That Shaped the Rational Expectations Revolution." History of Political Economy 52, S1 (December 1, 2020): 143–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-8717960.
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The rational expectations revolution was not based only on the introduction of Muth’s idea of rational expectations to macroeconomics; this introduction alone cannot explain the more drastic changes to the mathematical toolbox, concepts, and research strategies since the 1980s. The shift from “Keynesian economics” to “new classical economics” is based on a shift from a control engineering approach to an information engineering methodology. This “revolution” was even more radical; it also changed the epistemology and ontology of macroeconomics. The ontology of information engineering, and hence of new classical economics, is a world populated by machines that communicate by the exchange of noisy information. The decisions these machines make are conditioned on the (noisy) information they have about the current state of the world but which at the same time will affect future states. Policy in this world therefore means tracing an optimal trajectory taking all these issues into account. To show this shift in epistemology and ontology, the history of economics is interwoven with the history of mathematics, which cannot be detangled from the emergence of the digital computer. The computer changed the nature of mathematics in a specific way by adopting a new concept of solution, namely the algorithm.
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Toroptsev, E. L., and A. S. Marakhovskii. "Analysis of macrostructural dynamics framed by the “input–output” methodology." Journal of the New Economic Association 53, no. 1 (2022): 12–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-1.
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The purpose of this article is to publish the author’s method of the economy structural dynamics formalized analysis based on a dynamic model of input-output balance represented by a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is digitized based on the Rosstat data on the formation of the output of goods and services and elements of its own statistical research base. The methodological components of our work are the provisions of systemic, cross-sectoral and structural dynamic analysis. The presented theoretical and methodological statements, brought to a sequence of verified calculations, exploit the basic dynamic model of inputoutput balance, first published by V.V. Leontief in 1952. For many decades this model remained among so-called “purely theoretical constructions”, since it was never digitized. It was out of many computable models for two reasons: 1) degeneracy of the incremental capital capacities matrix (capital coefficients, as by V.V. Leontief) was believed to be indisputable; 2) the appearance of negative elements in the same matrix when attempting to digitize the model. The results of the work are as follows: the method to digitize the model; the method of numerical assessment of inertia and analysis of structural dynamics in macroeconomics. In a digitized form, the model is made up to solve the structural stability problem, to assess the impact of structural reforms on economic growth, and to analyze the internal / intrinsic dynamic properties of economic systems. This gives possibilities to use this model both independently corresponding to the application, and integrate into the advanced model complexes such as RIM — Russian Interindustry Model by IEF RAS (the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences).