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1
Sgherri, Silvia. "Policy evaluation with macroeconometric models." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2000. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4154/.
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This thesis presents a number of examples where macroeconometric models are employed as useful tools for evaluation of contemporary policy problems. A range of approaches is proposed to shed light on how macromodels can actually contribute to the policy debate. In particular, the thesis emphasises how different models maybe augmented or modified and stresses the need for care in the experimental design of policy simulations. Small stylised models of the UK economy are estimated in the first part of this thesis. They are used to assess the performance of simple monetary policy rules under the current inflation targeting monetary regime. In a monetary policy regime of inflation targeting, the appropriate target band-width can be assessed by calculating the variance of inflation in a macroeconomic model under alternative policy rules. A recent Bank of England study concludes from stochastic simulation of a small semi-structural model that a 'fairly substantial lump of inflation uncertainty' exists in the United Kingdom. In chapter 2 an extended and improved version of that model is developed while their estimates of inflation variability are revised downwards by deploying analytic techniques. In chapter 3 a new small 'semi structural' dynamic model of the UK economy is estimated, with particular attention to the modelling of wages and prices. It is used to assess the performance of simple monetary policy rules, including 'inflation forecast targeting' and 'Taylor' rules, while taking into account different degrees of forward-lookingness in both inflation targeting horizon and wage bargaining. Computation of asymptotic inflation-output standard-error trade-offs is provided under various specifications and parametrisations of the model. Large-scale country models have the convenience to make explicit a complete range of relationships among macroeconomic variables most of which, for obvious reasons, are neglected in smaller dynamic models. As a consequence, such quantitative framework offers an unique opportunity to evaluate not only the aggregate impact of exogenous shocks on the variables of interest, but also to identify the underlying economic mechanisms enabling the transmission of such shocks. In the second part of the thesis, I undertake simulations of the National Institute's Domestic Econometric Model (NIDEM) to analyse the characteristics of the UK monetary transmission mechanism. Chapter 4 emphasises that the impact of interest rate movements on real variables is strictly determined by both the monetary regime at work and the underlying assumptions regarding consumption behaviour. Certainly, the steady integration of the members of the EMU and increasing awareness of the need for closer co-operation in monetary and fiscal policy have stimulated greater interest in modelling interdependencies between European countries and the impact and feedbacks from the rest of the world economy. Many of the key issues have now an international aspect, so it becomes more and more difficult to rely on single-country models to provide necessary analysis. International transmission mechanisms can therefore be better tackled with a multi-country model. The third and last part of this thesis focuses on cross-country asymmetric transmissions in response to a common monetary shock within EMU. In particular, in chapter 5 an empirical analysis of the links between monetary and fiscal policy within EMU is presented. This is done through simulation of a neo-classical highly non-Ricardian multi-country model: the IMF's MULTIMOD Mark III (MM3). Chapter 6 provides further evidence about the effects of embracing a Monetary Union when underlying macroeconomist structures still differ across countries. By use of the same model-based quantitative framework, this chapter examines the role of nominal and real rigidities in European labour markets for the assessment of asymmetries in monetary transmission under various monetary regimes.
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Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel. "Macroeconometric modelling of the Ghanaian economy." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416142.
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Al-Jebory, Asam Mohamed A. "Macroeconometric model of Iraq : estimation and forecast." Thesis, Keele University, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.314673.
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Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe. "A disaggregated Marshallian macroeconometric model of South Africa." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2008. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-09242009-231908.
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Acurio, Vasconez Verónica. "A macroeconometric model of energy for public policy." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010032.
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Depuis la stagflation observée suite à la forte hausse du prix du pétrole en 1973 et 1979, les chocs pétroliers sont considérés comme l’une des sources de fluctuations les plus importantes aux États-Unis comme dans de nombreux pays industrialisés. De nombreux articles ont alors étudié le rôle des chocs pétroliers dans la fluctuation des principales variables macro-économiques à savoir, la croissance, le chômage, l’inflation et les salaires. Cependant, ces travaux n’ont pas encore permis d’aboutir à un consensus. Le débat s’est même intensifié au cours de cette dernière décennie, suite à l’absence de réaction de l’économie réelle pendant la période d’augmentation du prix du pétrole entre 2002 et 2007. En effet, la stagflation ne fut observée qu’au moment de la crise des “subprimes” en 2008. Plusieurs hypothèses furent avancées pour expliquer la différence entre les crises des années 70 et 2000. Blanchard & Gali (2009) et Blanchard & Riggi (2013) évoquent par exemple la réduction de la quantité de pétrole utilisée dans le processus de production, la plus grande flexibilité des salaires réels et la meilleure crédibilité de la politique monétaire. Hamiltion (2009) et Kilian (2008) suggèrent quant à eux la différence dans l’origine des deux chocs pétroliers : un choc de d’offre aux années 70 et un choc de demande aux années 2000. L’objectif de cette thèse est de réexaminer l’impact des chocs pétroliers sur l’économie réelle. Dans un premier temps, sur la base des travaux de Blanchard & Gali, nous proposons trois nouveaux modèles dynamiques d’équilibre général stochastique (DSGE), qui intègrent le pétrole à la fois comme facteur de production et comme bien de consommation. En relâchant plusieurs hypothèses adoptées dans Blanchard & Gali, nos modèles permettent une meilleure simulation de l’économie réelle et donc une étude plus détaillée des mécanismes de transmission des chocs. Dans un second temps, nous analysons plusieurs types d’interventions publiques susceptibles d’atténuer l’impact des chocs pétroliers sur l’économieNo English summary available
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Wang, Yiru. "Essays in macroeconometrics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669927.
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This thesis consists of three chapters on topics in Macroeconometrics.
Chapter 1 proposes a method to analyze the relationship between models’
in-sample fit and their out-of-sample density forecasting performance. To
this end, I further develop a formal test to capture density forecast breakdowns
(DFBs); situations in which the out-of-sample density forecast performance
is significantly worse than its anticipated performance. Chapter
2 proposes a novel methodology for identifying and estimating structural
breaks in the factor loadings of a high dimensional approximate factor
model with an unknown number of latent factors. The approach is robust
to structural changes in the volatility of the factors (the second moment
of the factors), applicable to multiple structural breaks, and easy to implement
for practitioners. Chapter 3 introduces time variation into the
local projections framework and proposes an impulse responses estimation
methodology under unstable local projections.Aquesta tesi consta de tres capítols sobre temes en Macroeconometria. El capítol 1 proposa un mètode per analitzar la relació entre l’ajust en mostra de models i el seu rendiment de previsió de densitat fora de mostra. Amb aquesta finalitat, desenvolupo una prova formal per capturar els desglossaments de previsió de densitat (DFB); situacions en què el rendiment previst de la densitat fora de mostra és significativament pitjor que el rendiment previst. El capítol 2 proposa una nova metodologia per identificar i estimar les ruptures estructurals en les càrregues de factors d’un model aproximat dimensional de factor aproximat amb un nombre desconegut de factors latents. L’enfocament és robust a canvis estructurals en la volatilitat dels factors (segon moment dels factors), aplicables a múltiples ruptures estructurals i fàcils d’implementar per als practicants. El capítol 3 introdueix la variació de temps en el marc de les projeccions locals i proposa una metodologia d’estimació de la resposta d’impuls en projeccions locals inestables.
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Laabas, Belkacem. "A macroeconometric model for Algeria : a medium term macroeconometric model for Algeria 1963-1984, a policy simulation approach to Algerian development problems." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/5024.
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This thesis is concerned with the development and use of a macroeconometric model for the Algerian economy between 1963 and 1984. The model was built because of a systematic lack of applied econometric studies pertaining to Algeria at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level. It is hoped that the model will fill a gap in this area and will contribute to the much neglected field of applied econometric research with regard to Algeria. This lack of applied econometric studies for Algeria meant that the modelling exercise described here has had to rely on an extensive specification search based on evidence relating to Algeria's economic structure and policy, economic theory, and the experience of Less Developed Countries in the area of macroeconomic model-building. The lack of data was a major constraint in this area and part of this study consisted of collecting and compiling a large database. After the country's independence in 1962, Algerian macroeconomic policy aimed to create a strong industrial system and to satisfy the population's basic needs. It relied on heavy industrialisation to modernise the economy, oil revenues to finance development, and central planning as the major tool of macroeconomic regulation. The accumulation rate was high and the growth record was generally good. However high unemployment and inflation, considerable disequilibrium, low productivity, a vulnerable balance of payments and unsustainable external debt are the major macroeconomic problems that policy-makers have had to face. The model's equations were first estimated using the OLS method and were subjected to stringent statistical tests. The degree of test significance and parameter correspondence to a priori views on the economy was good. when the model was constructed, it was estimated using a 2SLS principal component method. The OLD results were found to be reasonably feasible. The equations were collected into a system of 63 equations and solved using dynamic simulation technique. The model was solved successfully and its tracking of historical data was reasonably good. Further tests were carried out to study its dynamic features. Having constructed the model, it was then used extensively to perform simulation analysis. The experiments ranged from those concerning the goverment's current expenditure to its monetary policy. In all, nine simulation exercises were carried out. These were revealing on the workings of the Algerian economy. The model was further used in scenario analysis. First the model was used to develop an ex ante forecast employing a linear trend model for the exogenous variables. The forecast database was used to generate multipliers. The policy analysis was constructed to coincide with the implementation of the Second Five Year Plan (1985-1989). The feasibility of the plan was examined by varying the price of oil according to three hypotheses. The aim of this test was to develop a realistic framework for applied macroeconomic analysis.
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Cook, Stephen. "Essays on macroeconometric modelling with reference to consumer's expenditure." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361958.
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COSTA, PAULO WERNECK DE ANDRADE. "ADAPTIVE CONTROL OF A MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL WITH MEASUREMENT ERROR." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 1991. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9400@1.
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CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOO Planejamento econômico, abordado como um problema de controle, tem por objetivo estabelecer trajetórias ótimas (ou sub-ótimas) para as variáveis que estão sujeitas ao controle do Governo. Isto significa dizer que as varáveis de política (controle) não mais serão arbitrariamente determinadas pelos seus planejadores, sendo agora resultantes de um processo de otimização , tendo em vista o cumprimento de metas previamente estabelecidas. Neste artigo aplicamos um controlador adaptativo de certeza equivalente a um modelo macroeconométrico da economia brasileira, considerando erro de medida nas variáveis de estado. A adoção de um controlador adaptativo é justificada tendo em vista as críticas (principalmente a crítica de Lucas) que recaíram sobre os modelos macroeconométricos estacionários. Uma das formas adequadas de se tratar a não estacionariedade de tais modelos é por intermédio de um controlador adaptativo cujo objetivo será controlar e identificar simultaneamente o modelo em questão. Apresentamos uma pequena resenha das aplicações de controle ótimo e controle adaptativo em problema econômicos, ressaltando a aplicação de ambas as técnicas em modelos macroeconométricos com expectativas racionais. Por intermédio de simulações comparamos a política realmente efetivada pelo governo federal e a política ótima obtida via controle ótimo não adaptativo.
Economic planning, when considered as a control problem, has as its objective establishing optimal (or sub-optimal) trajectories for the variables subject to Government Control. This means that the policy variables (control), instead of being arbitrarily determined by the policymakers, will be the result of an optimization process, with the objective of reaching pre-established goals. In this work a Certainly Equivalence Adaptative Control is applied to a macroeconometric model of the Brazilian economy with measurement error. Since the employment of time-invariant models has been widely criticized (Lucas critique) the model used here is time- varying. An adequate way to treat such a case is through an adaptative control scheme, in which control and identification of the model are perfomed simultaneously. By means of simulations the policy obtained with the adaptative controller is compared to the policy adopted by the Brazilian Government.
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Lohani, S. R. "Estimation of missing observations in economic time series, with special reference to macro-econometric modelbuilding for Nepal." Thesis, University of Manchester, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377725.
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Tan, K.-G. "Macroeconometric model of a developing economy : A case of Taiwan." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.375064.
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Mehari, Tesfamariam. "Modelling monetary and fiscal policy in Ethiopia : a macroeconometric approach." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 1998. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/4911/.
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De, Wet Albertus Hendrik. "A macroeconometric framework for credit portfolio modelling in South Africa." Thesis, University of Pretoria, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/30363.
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Driven by intense competition for market share, banks across the globe have allowed credit portfolios to become less diversified (across all dimensions country, industry, sector and size) and have become willing to accept lesser quality assets on their books. As a result, even well capitalised banks could come under severe solvency pressure when global economic conditions turn. The banking industry has realised the need for more sophisticated loan origination and credit and capital management practices. To this end the reforms introduced by the Bank of International Settlement through the New Basel Accord (Basel II) aims to include exposure specific credit risk characteristics within the regulatory capital requirement framework, but is still not able to allow diversification and concentration risk to be fully recognised within the credit portfolio. In order to enhance earnings and liquidity profiles, active credit portfolio management is becoming a central part of capital management within the banking industry. If any risk mitigation or value enhancing activity is to be pursued, a credit portfolio manager must be able to identify the interdependencies between exposures in a portfolio and relate macroeconomic credit risk into tangible portfolio effects. The core principle for addressing practical questions in credit portfolio management lies in the ability to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm’s own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. Most structural credit portfolio management approaches have opted to represent the general economy or systematic risk by a single risk factor. The systematic component of all exposures, the process generating asset values and therefore the default thresholds are homogeneous across all firms. Indeed this Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) model has been the foundation for Basel II. However the ASRF approach does not allow for enough flexibility when answering real life questions. Commercially available credit portfolio models have made an effort to address this issue by introducing more systematic factors in the asset-value-generating process. From a practitioner’s point of view, however, these models are often a “black-box” which allows little economic meaning or inference to be attributed to systematic factors. The methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner (PSTW) (2006) has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling because it avoids the usage of proprietary balance sheet and distance to default data, instead focussing on credit ratings which are more freely available. Linking an adjusted structural default model to a structural global econometric (GVAR) model means that credit risk analysis and portfolio management can be done by using a conditional loss distribution estimation and simulation process. The GVAR model used in PSTW (2006) comprises a total of 25 countries and accounts for 80 per cent of world production, but does not include an African component. This thesis proposes a country-specific macroeconometric risk driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio and opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale because such a model can easily be linked into the GVAR model. By using firm-specific asset value functions, the outcomes from the macroeconometric vector error-correcting model (VECM) is translated into default probabilities and used to perform credit risk analysis and scenario analysis on a fictitious portfolio of corporate bank loans within the South African economy. These results can be used in credit portfolio management or standalone credit risk analysis which means that practical credit portfolio management and value enhancing applications can be performed.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2010.
Economics
unrestricted
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INSISIENMAY, Sthabandith. "A Macroeconometric Model for Policy Planning of the Lao Economy." Kyoto University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/124086.
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Mohamed, Essa H. "Macroeconometric model of an oil based economy : case study of Libya." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 1997. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/2999/.
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Macroecometric models are extremely important for developing countries as well as for developed countries. They can help and guide planners, policy makers and government leaders to establish priorities in their activities and to chose those policies which permit the most the rapid advance of economic development. The aim of this thesis is to construct a macroeconometric model for the Libyan economy and to use the model to forecast future economic activities under different scenarios. The Background of the Libyan economy is outlined first. Brief reviews of the theory of the background to the model components are given in the first part of the thesis. The specification of the model equations, depending on the economic theory and estimation procedures are carried out in the second part of the thesis. The calculations are carried out with a TSP package. Model validation is carried out in the third part of the thesis. This includes model evaluation (tracking performance and dynamic properties) and multiplier analysis. Model implications, such as forecasting (Ex-Post and Ex-Ante) are described in the last part of the thesis. Two different scenarios are considered. These scenarios explore the effects of different sets of oil prices and production on the Libyan economy, for the period 1996-2005. Several policy implications are derived from the results of the scenarios. The conclusion reached is that the Libyan economy is heavily dependent on Oil Revenues and any shock in this variable will have great effects on the Libyan economy. Also, excessive government spending is the main reason for the high inflation rate, which also leads to the crowding out of private investment.
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Al-Teraiki, Ahmed B. M. "A macroeconometric model of Saudi Arabia for economic stabilisation and forecasting." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1999. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7286.
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The purpose of this study is to construct a macroeconometric model for the Saudi Arabian economy in order to assess the effects of external shocks through such variables as the price of (oil) exports, real (oil) exports, and the price of imports. This model follows the methodology of the aggregate demand and supply. Due to the absence of interest rates, the formulation of the aggregate demand, following the monetary approach to the income determination, is done by combining the equations from the monetary sector in addition to the government and foreign sectors of the economy. The aggregate supply side of the economy is formulated by combining the equations from the oil and non-oil production sectors. The model determines the behaviours of such important endogenous variables as the real absorptive capacity, real oil and non-oil GDP, real imports, velocity of money, money supply, balance of payments, government oil and non-oil revenues, government expenditure, government deficit, and non-oil GDP and general price inflation rates. The estimated model satisfactorily simulates the reality of the economy for the estimation period of 1971-1994. This, therefore, justifies the use of the model for both multiplier and scenario analyses. The multiplier analysis evaluates the cffects of a 10% change in the price of (oil) exports, real (oil) exports, and the price of imports on the endogenous variables. The scenario analysis, however, examines the behaviours of the endogenous variables for 1999-2005 based on several scenarios on the price of (oil) exports, real (oil) exports, and the price of imports. Concentrating on three sets of scenarios corresponding to low, moderate, and high level of oil prices, our study concludes that a sound economy into the next century requires more aggressive privatisation policies. That is, the government policies should drastically limit the government expenditure and, instead, encourage the private sector to invest and participate more aggressively in the economic development projects.
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Gossel, Sean J. "A macroeconometric analysis of South Africa’s post-liberalisation capital inflow components." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9892.
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Includes bibliographical references.In common with emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, South Africa received substantial capital inflows following socio-political and financial liberalisation in the mid-1990s. However, unlike many other emerging countries, the bulk of South Africa’s post-liberalisation inflows have been in the traditionally short-term forms of portfolio and other investment. Hence, in this thesis, a macroeconometric analysis of South Africa’s post-liberalisation capital flow components is conducted to investigate the extent to which their divergent impacts have complicated, or even rendered impotent, the dual policy goals of attracting capital inflows on the one hand, while mitigating any significant detrimental impacts on the other. The results of the analysis show that foreign direct investment is responsive to domestic factors, while portfolio and other flows respond to a combination of domestic and foreign factors. However, domestic business cycle fluctuations are found to have a greater effect on the capital outflows than the capital inflows, and are thus associated with heightened capital flight and repatriation during expansionary phases. Although the capital flow components are found to have varied effects on South Africa’s macroeconomy, transmission mechanisms, nominal Rand/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, and economic growth dynamics, the ‘hot’ flows are found to demonstrate greater boom-bust characteristics compared to foreign direct investment. Conventional economic theory posits that the destabilising effects can be controlled using fiscal and monetary policy mechanisms. However, analysis of the cyclical relationships between the capital flows and fiscal policy finds that net direct investment and net other investment tend to be counter-cyclically associated with fiscal policy, while net portfolio investment tends to be acyclical, indicating that the bulk of South Africa’s net capital inflows do not have a significant cyclical relationship with fiscal policy. In addition, net direct investment and net other investment are found to have inconsistent cyclical relationships with monetary policy, while net portfolio investment tends to be procyclical. Thus, this research finds that although South Africa has been able to use exchange rate flexibility and sterilisation to neutralise the early stages of capital inflows, the divergent characteristics of the country’s post-liberalisation capital flow components have limited the fiscal and monetary policy options available to mitigate the detrimental capital flow effects arising from structural factors.
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Taye, Haile Kebret. "A macroeconometric model of a subsistence economy: The case of Ethiopia." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/9469.
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The objective of this study is to analyze the structural and behavioral attributes of a small and open subsistence economy. Using a medium-sized macroeconometric policy model, the study analyses specific structural factors and internal rigidities facing the Ethiopian economy and examines the impacts of various past and recent policies implemented by successive governments. The study addresses the question of the applicability of macroeconometric models for developing countries and uses such a model to examine the structural and institutional peculiarities of a subsistence economy. This study also presents the first macroeconometric policy model of Ethiopia. This model is used to examine the supply constraints and the importance of the exchange rate on the economy. Further the study will attempt to examine the impact of alternative macro policies on the performance of the economy and provide a quantitative framework for further policy analysis. The specific policy issues examined include: One, how was the performance of the Ethiopian economy affected by the policy shift of the mid-seventies? Two, what is the likely impact of the recently implemented devaluation of the domestic currency (birr) on the balance of payments and other economic aggregates? And, three, is there a trade-off between military expenditures and social programs? The key findings are summarized below. Devaluing the currency would: One, have an adverse impact on output growth and, hence, on components of aggregate demand--on private consumption expenditures and on private investment, for instance; two, be inflationary, as would be expected for a small (price taking) open economy; but, three, it would have a positive impact on the current account balance. A reduction in military expenditures: One, would increase total output, and would have a positive net impact on private consumption and investment expenditures; two, suggests the existence of a significant trade-off between military expenditures and expenditures on education and health; and, three, would improve the current account balance since most of the military equipment is imported. No change in policy in the mid-1970s would have: One, increased total output and sectoral outputs, and would have had a positive net impact on private consumption and investment expenditures; two, increased expenditures on education and health; but, three, would have decreased most imports and exports and would have had a net positive impact on the current account balance. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
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Matlanyane, Retselisitsoe Adelaide. "A macroeconometric model for the economy of Lesotho policy analysis and implications /." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04182005-091509.
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Ibironke, Adesola Bamidele. "The international linkages of Nigeria as an oil-dependent economy : macroeconometric analysis." Thesis, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/4079.
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Nigeria is an oil-driven economy with a high level of global integration. This thesis considers how oil- related fluctuations impact the economy by exploring three important aspects of the nexus between oil dependency and global integration. First, by modelling global integration through cross-country trade linkages, the thesis examines the impact of external (oil-related) shocks on Nigeria, and compares this with the impact of domestically generated shocks. The findings show that although oil price shocks cause real exchange rate appreciation and a consequent reduction of real GDP, these effects are not statistically significant. This implies that Dutch disease, particularly the spending effect of the disease, is not statistically significant in Nigeria. This is reasonable, as the country adopts the flexible exchange rate policy, which absorbs shocks and prevents "false" appreciation of real exchange rate. However, domestic shocks, specifically shocks to real GDP and inflation, have statistically significant impact in the country. Second, the international linkages between Nigeria and its main trade partners (i.e. US and Euro Area) are examined in terms of oil-related growth comovements, in order to test the decoupling hypothesis. This involves investigating whether or not the business cycles of the emerging and developing economy (Nigeria) has decoupled from those of the advanced economies (ADs). The rationale underlying the focus on oil-related comovements is that Nigeria is a major oil exporter and therefore oil price is likely to have a strong role to play in the transmission of international business cycles onto the country. The results show a statistically significant degree of growth comovements between the three economies under consideration, indicating that the decoupling hypothesis does not hold for Nigeria. Finally, the international linkages between Nigeria and the global economy are examined with respect to the effectiveness of Nigeria's stabilization fund and oil-price-based fiscal rule. The results show that the two fiscal instruments are effective at cushioning the impact of oil shocks on the economy, in terms of both fiscal and broader macroeconomic effects. These findings suggest the increased resilience of Nigeria to global shocks originating from the ADs (as dominant importers of Nigeria's exports). Complementing the findings with those on the decoupling hypothesis indicates that resilience does not require decoupling for Nigeria, which iii is consistent with the broad literature on the decoupling of the emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) from the ADs. These results have policy implications for Nigeria. First, the country should maintain the adoption of the flexible exchange rate policy, because it has been effective as a shock absorber against Dutch disease. Second, broader macroeconomic policies are required to limit the adverse effects of internal shocks. Third, resilience does not appear to require decoupling for Nigeria, so long as effective arrangements are made to limit the effects of the shocks originating from the ADs. Fourth, Nigeria should maintain its stabilization fund and oil-price-based fiscal rule, possibly complementing them with more countercyclical policies, in order to build stronger resilience to external shocks.
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Banasik, John Leszek. "The feasibility of multisectoral dynamic macroeconometric modelling of the British interwar economy." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/19871.
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This thesis proposes and describes construction of an industrially disaggregated macroeconomic model of the interwar British economy. It then demonstrates aspects of its feasibility in terms of available and potentially available data. The proposed model is both dynamic (incorporating delayed reaction) and multisectorial (based on an input-output model). To date there is only one other such model for the United Kingdom, and no such model is available for a historical period. Such a model would accommodate historical analysis, economic experimentation, and various types of model optimisation. Before demonstrating the feasibility of constructing such a model, a selection of key historical issues is considered. These illustrate the tendency of historians to analyse economic developments with reference to industry-specific detail. This tendency makes a multisectoral model vital to the analysis of the period on historians' own terms. A second chapter than describes the major facilities of such a model in order to suggest that its flexibility ought to appeal to economists in their own right. This description also provides an occasion to enumerate the data needs of such a model. In the remaining chapters two aspects of feasibility are considered. The availability or potential availability of time series that are compatible with an input-output model is the first aspect. The second is that these data are compatible with the one particular input-output model that is available. Industrially disaggregated time series for consumer spending and for fixed investment are provided, and the development of similar series for exports and government spending is discussed as well. Other industrially disaggregated series such as those dealing with factor incomes and factor adjustment have long been available. The major findings are that there is sufficient detail in underlying estimates to adapt existing time series into the required final demand time series, and that the 1935 values of these series agree well with corresponding values that appear on the periphery of the input-output model constructed by Tibor Barna.
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Akusuwan, Mutita. "A small quarterly macroeconometric model for the Thai economy : a structural cointegrating VAR approach." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.614921.
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McHugh, Zoe D. "A Small, Macroeconometric Model Of The Australian Economy : With An Emphasis On Modelling Wages And Prices." Queensland University of Technology, 2004. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/15937/.
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Traditional macroeconometric models of the Australian economy estimate the behaviour of wage and price inflation separately, thereby ignoring the possibility that there is a contemporaneous relationship between these two variables. This thesis follows a recent trend emerging in other small open economies, such as the UK and Norway, which is to estimate the behaviour of wage and price inflation in a simultaneous-equations model. In order to capture the behaviour of the major variables which drive wages and prices, a complete model is constructed which embeds these important transmission channels. The model is developed in three stages. First, underpinned by a theoretical framework of a unionized economy with imperfect competition, the core wage- price system is developed whereby consumer prices and average weekly earnings are jointly estimated in a simultaneous-equations framework. Particular atten- tion is given to estimating two identified cointegrating relationships for wages and prices. These equations are interpreted as the long-run targets of workers and firms respectively and are embedded in a parsimonious system of short-run dynamics which drive wages and prices towards their long-run levels. Second, llie behaviour of llie main feedback variables driving llie wage-price system is modelled, with particular attention given to the unemployment rate. While several of the most recent models of unemployment show that the aggregate unemployment rate in Australia does indeed behave differently during periods of low and high unemployment, none can explain what drives the unemployment rate to increase at such a rapid rate and what contributes to its much slower decrease. Another central issue of this thesis, therefore, is to propose a rationale for this as yet unexplained phenomenon. The remaining behavioural variables in the model, including aggregate labour productivity, domestic output and the real exchange rate, are all estimated in a single-equation framework. Third, these equations are then combined with a number of important identi- ties and an interest-rate reaction function to close the model. Then, the impacts of several simulated economic scenarios on Australia's economic landscape are considered. Special emphasis is given to analysing the impact of a large nomi- nal wage shock. The outcomes from these simulated scenarios are pertinent to understanding the inflation process and have important implications for a small open economy like Australia with an explicit inflation target. Overall, the major result to emerge from this thesis is that there is significant statistical support for the hypothesis that wage and price inflation in Australia are jointly determined. This phenomenon has not yet been fully exploited in current macroeconometric models of the Australian economy. The modelling exercise also reveals that the Australian unemployment rate is linear in demand and labour productivity shocks, with nonlinear behaviour caused by real wage rigidity and generous unemployment benefits. Importantly, this simple model is able to simulate the behaviour of the Australian economy extremely well. The outcome from the policy scenarios is clear: both demand-side and supply-side shocks have real and nominal effects on the economy in the short- to medium- run, ceteris paribus. Moreover, a large nominal wage shock to the economy, which results in a real wage rise, will have no sustained effect on the level of domestic activity in the economy, the inflation rate or the real exchange rate. Unemployment is, however, pushed slightly above equilibrium in the short- to medium-run due to a sustained higher real wage level.
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Khajeh-Hosseiny, Hosein. "The determination of medium term macroeconometric policy rules in a dynamic stochastic economic and monetary union." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.264128.
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Pinzón, Fuchs Erich. "Economics as a "tooled" discipline : Lawrence R. Klein and the making of macroeconometric modeling : 1939-1959." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E052/document.
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Cette thèse, dont l'objectif est de faire prévaloir l'importance de la macro-économétrie dans l'histoire de la macro-économie, s'articule autour de deux questions centrales : (1) Quelles ont été les forces et les objectif qui ont motivé le développement de la modélisation macro-économétrique et quelle est la nature des outils et des institutions que les macro-économistes ont construit pour observer, comprendre et contrôler l'économie d'après-guerre aux États-Unis , (2) Quels ont été les effets de la construction et de l'utilisation de tels outils dans la production du savoir macro-économique ? En considérant Lawrence R. Klein comme une figure centrale, je parcours la discipline économique des années 1940-1950 en me focalisant sur l'intersection entre l'histoire de la macro-économie et celle de l'économétrie, et ainsi, je propose une nouvelle vision de 'économie du vingtième siècle en tant que discipline "saisie par les outils", dans laquelle la théorie (économique et statistique), l'application, l'expertise et la politique s'incorporent dans un même outil scientifique : un model macro-économétrique. j'expose donc l'histoire de la macro-économie non pas comme le produit des questions idéologiques monolithiques ou purement théoriques, mais plutôt comme le produit des visions épistémologiques et de stratégies de modélisation divergentes qui remontent aux débats entre les approches empiriques de la macro-économie étatunienne et les méthodologies Walrasienne et Marshallienne. Ainsi, je soutiens la thèse que Klein a été le personnage principal dans la création d'une nouvelle manière de produire le savoir macro-économique qui, à travers la construction et l'utilisation d'outils complexes (modèles macro-économétriques) mis en place au sein d'une configuration institutionnelle spécifique (laboratoires économétriques), poursuivait des objectifs explicites de politique économique, et par laquelle les rôles bien définis des experts (équipes scientifiques) étaient intégrées à une nouvelle pratique scientifique : la modélisation macro-économiqueIn this disseration, I place macroeconometric modeling at the center of the history of twentieth century macroeconomics, i. e. as e history of macroeconometrics, and ask two central questions : (1) What exactly were the objectives and the forces driving the development of macroeconometric modeling, and what kind of tools and institutions did macroeconomists build to observe, understand, and control the US postwar economy ? (2) What were the effects that the construction and use of these tools had on the production of macroeconomic knowledge ? Taking Lawrence R. Klein as a vehicle, I travel accross the economics discipline of the 1940s and 1950s, and study the intersection between the history of macroeconomics and the history of econometrics, providing a new understanding of twentieth century economics as a "tooled" discipline, in which theory (economy and statistical), application, expertise, and policy become embedded within one scientific tool : a macroeconometric model. Consequently, I present the history of macroeconomics not as the product of monolithic ideological and purely theoretical issues, but rather of divergent epistemological views and modeling strategies that go back to the debates between US-Walrasian and US-Marshallian approaches to empirical macroeconomics in which macroeconometric modeling from the heart of macroeconometrics. My thesis is that Klein what the most important figure in the creation of a new way to produce scientific knowledge that consisted in the construction and use of compex tools (macroeconometric models) within specific institutional configurations (econometric labotories) and for explicit policy and scientific objectives, in which well-defined roles of experts (scientific teams) were embodied within a new scientific practice (macroeconometric modeling)
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Acosta, Juan. "Essays on the history of macroeconometric modeling and the evolution of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve." Thesis, Lille 1, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LIL1A005/document.
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Cette thèse est composée de quatre articles qui analysent l’évolution de l’analyse économique au sein de la Réserve fédérale et le développement des modèles macroéconométriques aux Etats Unis pendant les années cinquante et soixante. Le premier article, « Roosa et Samuelson sur l'efficacité de la politique monétaire », porte sur les différents types d'arguments utilisés par Robert Roosa (Banque de la Réserve Fédérale de New York) et Paul Samuelson (Massachussetts Institute of Technology) au sujet du rôle des banques dans l'efficacité de la politique monétaire au début des années cinquante. Roosa souligne l'importance de prendre en compte les caractéristiques du système financier des États-Unis et son évolution. Son argumentation se fond sur l'intuition acquise dans son activité quotidienne sur le marché monétaire à New York. Samuelson, quant à lui, transforme le débat et le réduit à la question de l'existence d'un équilibre avec rationnement sur le marché du crédit. Bien que Samuelson n’ait pas proposé de modèle mathématique, il a ainsi orienté le débat dans une direction plus proche du langage des économistes, reposant sur les concepts d'équilibre et comportement rationnel. Dans le deuxième article, « La modélisation macroéconométrique et le comité sur la stabilité économique (CES) du SSRC, 19591963 », Erich PinzónFuchs et moi même discutons l’élaboration d'un modèle qui a jeté les bases de la macroéconométrie des années soixante. Nous analysons, à l’aide de l’étude du travail individuel des chercheurs impliqués et des retranscriptions de leurs réunions annuels, comment le modèle a été construit par un groupe d’une vingtaine de chercheurs. Nous signalons l'importance des liens que ce projet a institué entre les économistes, différentes agences gouvernementales, et des thinktanks comme la Brookings Institution. Dans le troisième article, « Le comportement des banques dans les modèles macroéconométriques des années soixante », Goulven Rubin et moi même étudions l’intégration du choix de portefeuille pour les banques et le traitement du rationnement du crédit dans ces modèles. Nous démontrons que le modèle de la Réserve fédérale est plus transparent que les modèles précédents dans la mesure où la structure du marché monétaire est plus claire. Un effort a été réalisé pour clarifier le rapport entre les équations fonctionnaires de la Réserve fédérale pour explorer ces méthodes et leurs possibles usages pour guider la politique monétaire. estimées et les choix microéconomiques des banques. Par rapport au rationnement du crédit, nous soulignons l’effort des modélisateurs pour l'inclure dans les modèles malgré la difficulté à observer ce rationnement directement. Leurs efforts pour favoriser la mesure a permis d’inclure ce rationnement dans le modèle, mais avec des résultats limités en termes d’implication analytique du rationnement sur la politique monétaire. Dans le quatrième article, « La transformation de l'analyse économique à la Réserve fédérale pendant les années soixante », Béatrice Cherrier et moi même utilisons les données biographiques des fonctionnaires de la Réserve Fédérale, des témoignages, et des archives, pour montrer comment la modélisation économétrique et les prévisions ont trouvé une place au sein de la Réserve Fédérale. Nous montrons, en particulier, que l’arrivée de ces méthodes a été la conséquence des pressions externes mais aussi de la volonté des fonctionnaires de la Réserve fédérale pour explorer ces méthodes et leurs possibles usages pour guider la politique monétaireThis dissertation contains four papers that discuss the transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve and the development of large-scale macroeconometric models during the 1950s and 1960s in the United States. The first paper is titled “Roosa and Samuelson on the effectiveness of monetary policy.” I discuss the different types of arguments used by Robert Roosa (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Paul Samuelson (MIT) in their discussion about the effectiveness of monetary policy in the early 1950s. Roosa emphasized the importance of lenders’ willingness to lend and, in general, of taking into account the details of the evolution of the American financial system. He presented an argument based on the intuition acquired in his participation—as an official of the New York Federal Reserve— in the New York money market. Samuelson, for his part, transformed the debate by reducing it to a discussion about the existence of an equilibrium with rationing in the credit market. Although Samuelson did not provide a mathematical model, he did transform the debate into a discussion palatable for economists, based on concepts like equilibrium and rational behavior. The second paper is titled “Macroeconometric modeling and the SSRC’s Committee on Economic Stability, 1959-1963.” Erich Pinzón-Fuchs and I discuss the construction of a macroeconometric model (1960-1963) that laid the bases for subsequent large-scale macroeconometric models of the 1960s. We discuss how, using an approach based on individual work together with two long annual conferences, the model was built by a team of more than 20 researchers. We also point out the important connections that the project helped establish between economists in academia, the government, and the Federal Reserve. The third paper is titled “Bank behavior in large-scale macroeconometric models of the 1960s.” Goulven Rubin and I discuss the implementation of a portfolio choice framework and the inclusion of credit rationing by banks in these models. We found that the Fed-MIT-Penn model has a more transparent structure: the structure of the money market is clearer, as is the relationship of its equations with the microeconomic choices of banks. Regarding credit rationing, we found that modelers made important efforts to include it despite its non-observable nature and to develop a measure of it. Once a measure was found, and despite constant negative results, modelers kept trying to find a place for credit rationing in their model. These results invite a deeper reflection on the idea of microfoundations in large-scale macroeconometric models and on the role of beliefs in macroeconometric modeling. The fourth paper is “The transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s.” Béatrice Cherrier and I use biographical data, reminiscences, and archival sources to show how econometric modeling and forecasting found a place at the Federal Reserve. We show, in particular, that the arrival of these methods was in part the consequence of external pressures, but also of the will of Fed officials interested in exploring the possible uses of these methods for monetary policymaking. There was no simple takeover by econometricians at the Federal Reserve but, instead, an equilibrium between judgmental and econometric forms of analysis emerged by the early 1970s
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Assali, Mehdi. "A macroeconomic model for a developing country : estimation and simulation of a macroeconometric model for Iran (1959-1993)." Thesis, Durham University, 1996. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/1513/.
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Bauknecht, Klaus Dieter. "A macroeconometric policy model of the South African economy based on weak rational expectations with an application to monetary policy." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51575.
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Dissertation (PhD) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2000.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Lucas critique states that if expectations are not explicitly dealt with, conventional econometric models are inappropriate for policy analyses, as their coefficients are not policy invariant. The inclusion of rational expectations in ·conventional model building has been the most common response to this critique. The concept of rational expectations has received several interpretations. In numerous studies, these expectations are associated with model consistent expectations in the sense that expectations and model solutions are identical. To derive a solution, these models require unique algorithms and assumptions regarding their terminal state, in particular when forward-looking expectations are present. An alternative that avoids these issues is the concept of weak rational expectations, which emphasises that expectation errors should not be systematic. Expectations are therefore formed on the basis of an underlying structure, but full knowledge of the model is not essential. The accommodation of this type of rational expectations is accomplished by means of an explicit specification of an expectations equation consistent with the macro econometric model's broad structure. The estimation of coefficients relating to expectations is achieved through an Instrumental Variable approach. In South Africa, monetary policy has been consistent and transparent in line with the recommendations of the De Kock Commission. This allows the modelling of the policy instrument of the South African Reserve Bank, i.e. the Bank rate, by means of a policy reaction function. Given this transparency in monetary policy, the accommodation of expectations of the Bank rate is essential in modelling the full impact of monetary policy and in avoiding the Lucas critique. This is accomplished through weak rational expectations, based on the reaction function of the Reserve Bank. The accommodation of expectations of a policy instrument also allows the modelling of anticipated and unanticipated policies as alternative assumptions regarding the expectations process can be made during simulations. Conventional econometric models emphasise the demand side of the economy, with equations focusing on private consumption, investment, exports and imports and possibly changes in inventories. In this study, particular emphasis in the model specification is also placed on the impact of monetary policy on government debt and debt servicing costs. Other dimensions of the model include the modelling of the money supply and balance of payments, short- and long-term interest rates, domestic prices, the exchange rate, the wage rate and employment as well as weakly rational expectations of inflation and the Bank rate. The model has been specified and estimated by usmg concepts such as cointegration and Error Correction modelling. Numerous tests, including the assessment of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error, have been employed to test the adequacy of the model. Similarly, tests are carried out to ensure weak rational expectations. Numerous simulations are carried out with the model and the results are compared to relevant alternative studies. The simulation results show that the reduction of inflation by means of only monetary policy could impose severe costs on the economy in terms of real sector volatility.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Lucas-kritiek beweer dat konvensionele ekonometriese modelle nie gebruik kan word vir beleidsontleding nie, aangesien dit nie voorsiening maak vir die verandering in verwagtings wanneer beleidsaanpassings gemaak word nie. Die insluiting van rasionele verwagtinge in konvensionele ekonometriese modelle is die mees algemene reaksie op die Lukas-kritiek. Ten einde die praktiese insluiting van rasionele verwagtings III ekonometriese modelbou te vergemaklik, word in hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van sogenaamde "swak rasionele verwagtings", wat slegs vereis dat verwagtingsfoute me sistematies moet wees nie. Die beraming van die koëffisiënte van die verwagtingsveranderlikes word gedoen met behulp van die Instrumentele Veranderlikes-benadering. Monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika was histories konsekwent en deursigtig in ooreenstemming met die aanbevelings van die De Kock Kommissie. Die beleidsinstrument van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank, naamlik die Bankkoers, kan gevolglik gemodelleer word met behulp van 'n beleidsreaksie-funksie. Ten einde die Lukas-kritiek te akkommodeer, moet verwagtings oor die Bankkoers egter ingesluit word wanneer die volle impak van monetêre beleid gemodelleer word. Dit word vermag met die insluiting van swak rasionele verwagtings, gebaseer op die reaksie-funksie van die Reserwebank. Sodoende kan die impak van verwagte en onverwagte beleidsaanpassings gesimuleer word. Konvensionele ekonometriese modelle beklemtoon die vraagkant van die ekonomie, met vergelykings vir verbruik, investering, invoere, uitvoere en moontlik die verandering in voorrade. In hierdie studie word daar ook klem geplaas op die impak van monetêre beleid op staatskuld en die koste van staatsskuld. Ander aspekte wat gemodelleer word, is die geldvoorraad en betalingsbalans, korttermyn- en langtermynrentekoerse, binnelandse pryse, die wisselkoers, loonkoerse en indiensneming, asook swak rasionele verwagtings van inflasie en die Bankkkoers. Die model is gespesifiseer en beraam met behulp van ko-integrasie en die gebruik van lang-en korttermynvergelykings. Die gebruiklike toetse is uitgevoer om die toereikendheid van die model te toets. Verskeie simulasies is uitgevoer met die model en die resultate is vergelyk met ander relevante studies. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat die verlaging van inflasie deur alleenlik gebruik te maak van monetêre beleid 'n swaar las op die ekonomie kan lê in terme van volatiliteit in die reële sektor.
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Chatziantoniou, Ioannis. "Essays on macroeconometric modelling : housing and financial markets in the light of inflation targeting monetary policy : evidence from the United Kingdom." Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 2013. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/essays-on-macroeconometric-modelling(56288b70-6135-4ad6-9ebe-6a13602bd747).html.
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The aim of this study is to present four essays related to the macroeconometric modelling of specific relations within the economy of the United Kingdom for the period 1992-2012. The focal point of these essays is the link between inflation targeting monetary policy decision making and housing or financial prices. In particular, we investigate whether traditional channels of monetary policy are still in effect under the adopted monetary policy regime. At the same time, findings associated with the specific relation between both asset markets or with the various working assumptions which facilitate our investigation are also reported. The specific econometric methods employed include the development of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR), Markov regime-switching, as well as, multivariate generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (MGARCH) models. The formulation of these models is predicated upon the selection of appropriate approximations for all financial and macroeconomic indicators of interest. The main findings of the first essay suggest that under the inflation targeting monetary policy regime, innovations in the monetary policy instrument have no direct effect on the stock market as previously suggested by traditional channels of monetary policy. The said innovations though, appear to have a significant negative impact on the housing market. Furthermore, variation in the stock market can be explained by innovations in the housing market. Turning to the second essay, prominent among our results is the fact that innovations in fiscal policy have a significantly negative effect on the stock market (direct impact). In addition, the effects of monetary policy on the stock market also become negative (indirect impact). According to the third essay when both the stock and the housing market are in a highly volatile regime, then contractionary monetary policy pushes both markets to remain at that regime. Finally, the main outcome from the fourth essay is that the time-varying correlation between monetary policy and housing or financial prices becomes stronger during turbulent times. Overall, our findings suggest that within an inflation targeting monetary policy regime the effects of monetary policy decisions on the stock market strongly depend on the broader economic conditions. By contrast, traditional monetary policy channels with respect to the housing market appear to be in effect; however, broader economic conditions have a key role to play in this case as well.
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Basiron, Y. B. "An investigation into the use of macroeconometric model simulation and optimal control for policy planning in the Malaysian rubber and oil palm industry." Thesis, University of Stirling, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.375413.
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Gallio, Francesco. "Essays on Macroeconometrics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/399342.
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Esta tesis es una colección de ensayos empíricos, con aplicación macroeconómica. En el primer capítulo, se investigan los efectos de política monetaria, previstos y no previstos. La idea básica es que los mercados forman expectativas sobre las futuras políticas que son relevantes para la inversión (y por lo tanto la producción) incluso antes de su implementación real. Exploramos teóricamente las dificultades en realizar la estimación, y discutimos alternativas de solución a tal problema. Resultados empíricos demuestran que las noticias explican una parte considerable del total de la transmisión de la política monetaria, entre el 25 y el 50% del efecto total de la política. Nuestros resultados se pueden comparar con la literatura siendo que identificamos tanto un shock anticipado y como uno inesperado. De hecho, en consonancia con trabajos anteriores, se observa que un ajuste monetario genera respuestas en forma de joroba tanto en el PIB, como en el consumo y la inversión y una caída de los precios. Lo que es interesante e innovador, es que las variables agregadas se ajustan incluso antes de la realización la política anunciada. Además, se observa que las noticias tienen efectos en la tasa de interés, a través de la ecuación de Taylor.
En el segundo capítulo movemos la atención a los efectos de transmisión fiscal entre una serie de países europeos: Alemania, Francia e Italia, España. Este trabajo es especialmente relevante dado el debate casi constante en la coordinación fiscal dentro de la zona del euro, que está lejos de ser resuelto. Utilizamos un análisis con variación temporal, que es apropiada para el período 1995-2014 que contiene puntos de inflexión institucional y financiera (por ejemplo, introducción de la moneda común o la recesión mundial). Nos encontramos con que los ciclos de las cuatro economías están altamente correlacionados, lo que demuestra el destino común de estos estados miembros. Sin embargo, no encontramos evidencias de coordinación de políticas fiscales. A pesar de esto, el gasto público en un país transite sus efectos internacionalmente, afectando el PIB de otros países. En términos generales, las repercusiones internacionales son especialmente fuertes en el mediano plazo y durante la crisis financiera. Además, llevamos a cabo el análisis caso por caso, para separar los efectos de contagio fiscal en cada país por separado. Nuestros resultados sugieren que las respuestas de los distintos países pueden ser asimétrica y heterogénea en signo y magnitud.
Por último, el tercer capítulo hace uso de la técnica de series temporales para explorar el tema del capital social en Italia y su impacto en el perfil de crecimiento del país. Más específicamente, se utiliza un modelo VAR estructural para desenredar las contribuciones relativas de la tecnología, del capital humano y de capital social. La definición de capital social se basa en la confianza y la facilidad de la cooperación económica, lo que nos permite diseñar un proxy de medición basado en las organizaciones de voluntarios. Entonces, se reconstruye una medida de capital humano basado en los años escolarización, calculada con el método de inventario permanente. El objetivo final es estimar un VAR que incluye tanto el capital social y el capital humano, y diferenciar sus efectos sobre el crecimiento de la producción. Los resultados empíricos muestran que un aumento en la productividad del capital social afecta positivamente el PIB. Por el contrario, no tiene ningún efecto relevante sobre la acumulación de capital humano. Además, en consonancia con la teoría del crecimiento endógeno, nos encontramos con que la educación es un factor fundamental del crecimiento del PIB. Por lo tanto, podemos establecer que el capital social tiene un papel en la promoción del crecimiento, aunque sus efectos son pequeños en comparación con el capital humano y la PTF.This thesis is a collection of empirical essays, with macroeconomic application. In the first chapter, we investigate the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks. The baseline idea is that markets form expectations on future policy developments that are relevant for investment (and hence production) decisions even before the actual policy change is implemented. We explore theoretically the challenge that this time misalignment implies at the moment of performing estimation, and we discuss alternative solutions to such problem. On an empirical ground, we find that news account for a sizable portion of the overall transmission of monetary policy, accounting in between 25 and 50\% of the total policy effect. Out results are comparable to the literature in that we identify both an anticipated and an unanticipated disturbance. Not surprisingly, and consistently with previous works, we observe that that a monetary tightening generates humped-shaped responses of GDP, consumption and investment and a fall in prices. What is interesting and innovative, is that aggregate variables adjust even before the realization of the announce policy shift. Also, we observe that news have (anticipated) feedback effects in the interest rate, via adjustments of the Taylor rule. In the second chapter we move the attention to fiscal spillovers in a set of European countries, namely Germany, France Spain and Italy. This work is especially relevant given the near-constant debate on fiscal coordination within the Euro area, that is far from being settled. We use a time varying framework, which is appropriate for the period 1995-2014 that contains both institutional and financial inflection points (e.g. introduction of the common currency or the global recession). We find that the cycles of the four economies are highly correlated, testifying the interwoven faith of these member states. However, we fail to observe evidence of fiscal policy coordination. Notwithstanding this, government spending in a country expand its effects cross-border, affecting other countries' GDP. Broadly speaking, international spillovers are especially strong in the medium run and during the financial crisis, paving the way to the discussion on fiscal coordination across member states. Also, we perform a case by case study, to disentangle the effects of fiscal spillover in each country separately. Our results suggest that responses across countries can be asymmetric and heterogeneous in sign and magnitude. Finally, the third chapter makes use of time series technique to explore the issue of social capital in Italy and its impact in the growth profile of the country. More specifically, we use a SVAR model to disentangle the relative contributions of technology, human capital and social capital shocks. The definition of social capital is based on trust and ease of economic cooperation, which allows us to design a measurement proxy based on voluntary organizations. Then, taking advantage of long spam times series, we reconstruct a measure of human capital based on year of schooling and computed with the permanent inventory method. The final aim is to estimate a VAR including both social capital and human capital, and differentiate their effects output growth. Empirical results show that an increase in social capital productivity affects output positively. Conversely, it does not have any relevant effect on human capital accumulation. Also, consistently with endogenous growth theory, we find that education is a fundamental factor of GDP growth. Therefore, we establish that social capital has a role in fostering growth, even if its effects are small compared to human capital and TFP.
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Gánics, Gergely Ákos. "Essays in macroeconometrics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/420880.
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This thesis consists of three chapters on topics in macroeconometrics. Chapter 1
provides a novel estimator of combination weights which delivers well-calibrated
density forecasts. In an empirical example of forecasting US industrial production,
I show that my proposed methodology outperforms several benchmark combination
schemes, and the weights indicate that financial variables proved to be useful
predictors during the Great Recession. Chapter 2 investigates time-variation in the
forecasting performance of structural Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
models and reduced-form statistical models. I show that the models’ in-sample
forecasting ability was strongly related to their out-of-sample performance before
the recent financial crisis, but this link considerably weakened at the onset of the
crisis. In Chapter 3 we propose a methodology to construct confidence intervals
for the strength of identification in both instrumental variable models and Structural
Vector Autoregressive models identified with an external instrument. We
illustrate the proposed method using three leading empirical examples: the New
Keynesian Phillips Curve, a linearized Euler equation, and a Structural Vector
Autoregressive model describing the dynamic effects of oil shocks.La present tesi es composa de tres capítols sobre temes de macroeconometria. El capítol 1 introdueix un nou estimador de combinacions de pesos que dóna prediccions de densitat ben calibrades. En un exemple empíric de predicció de la producció industrial dels EUA, demostro que l’aplicació d’aquesta metodologia millora molts dels esquemes de combinació de referència i els pesos indiquen que les variables financeres són predictors útils de la Gran Recessió. El capítol 2 investiga la variació temporal en la capacitat de predicció dels models dinàmics estocàstics d’equilibri general i dels models estadístics de forma reduïda. Demostro que la capacitat de predicció del model dins de la mostra estava fortament relacionada amb el seu rendiment fora de la mostra abans de la recent crisi financera, però aquest vincle es fa feble amb l’inici de la crisi. En el capítol 3 proposem una metodologia per construir intervals de confiança per la força d’identificació tan en models de variables instrumentals com en models estructurals de vectors autoregressius identificats amb un instrument extern. Il lustrem la metodologia proposada utilitzant tres exemples empírics importants: La Corba de Phillips Neokeynesiana, una equació d’Euler linealitzada i un model estructural de vectors autoregressius que descriu les dinàmiques dels efectes dels xocs del petroli.
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Kishor, Narayan Kundan. "Essays in macroeconometrics /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/7491.
Full text
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Zhu, Chuanqi. "Essays on macroeconometrics." Thesis, Boston College, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104398.
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Thesis advisor: Zhijie XiaoThis dissertation contains three chapters in theoretical Macroeconometrics and applied Macroeconometrics. This first chapter addresses the issues related to the estimation, testing and computation of ordered structural breaks in multivariate linear regressions. Unlike common breaks, ordered structural breaks are those breaks that are related across equations but not necessarily occurring at the same dates. A likelihood ratio test assuming normal errors is proposed in this chapter in order to detect the ordered structural breaks in multivariate linear regressions. The estimation of ordered structural breaks uses quasi-maximum likelihood and adopts the efficient algorithm of Bai and Perron (2003). I also provide results about the consistency and rate of convergence when searching for ordered structural breaks. Finally, these methods are applied to one empirical example: the mean growth rate of output in three European countries and United States. This second chapter focuses on the parameter stability of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. To this end, I solve and estimate a representative New Keynesian model using both linear and nonlinear methods. I first examine how nonlinearities affect the parameter stability of the New Keynesian model. The results show that parameter instabilities still exist even using nonlinear solutions, and also highlight differences between two nonlinear solution methods: perturbation method and projection method. In addition, I propose a sequential procedure for searching for multiple structural breaks in nonlinear models, and apply it to the New Keynesian model. Two common structural breaks among these estimated parameters are identified for all the five solutions considered in this chapter. One structural break is in the early 1970s, while another one locates around the middle 1990s. In the third chapter, we investigate changes in long run productivity growth in the United States. In particular, we approach productivity growth from a sectoral perspective, and decompose the whole economy into two broad sectors: investment goods-producing sector and consumption goods-producing sector. Although the evidence of changes in the aggregate productivity growth is far from obvious at conventional test size, we find evidence of structural breaks in the sectoral productivity growth using both growth accounting and DSGE model based measures. There are two structural breaks in investment goods-producing sector using growth accounting measures, which indicates that the era of investment and productivity boom in the middle 1990s may have ended before the Great Recession. In addition, our results show there is one structural break in consumption goods-producing sector around the 1970s and attribute the aggregate productivity slowdown at that time to consumption goods-producing sector. These results are broadly consistent with Ireland and Schuh (2008). Our results offer up with a modestly pessimistic outlook on future productivity growth and, therefore, potential output
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2013
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Bazinas, Vassilios. "Essays in macroeconometrics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8f8f052d-51f5-48e9-a6e3-91beb375a7d9.
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This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter develops a method to explore the causal transmission of a catalyst variable through two endogenous variables of interest. The method is based on the reduced-form system formed from the conditional distribution of two endogenous variables given the catalyst and combines elements from instrumental variable analysis and recursive identification of structural vector autoregressions. Conditions for uniqueness of the causal transmission are provided. The second chapter identifies and characterises periods of financial fragility over the period 1973-2016 within a simple regime-switching framework. Fragility is driven by high default risk and low profitability of intermediaries, as defined in Tsomocos (2003). Recessions occur primarily when fragility is high, but high fragility can occur without leading to recession. Credit growth is lower under high fragility, but it is not as significant a driver of regime changes when financial fragility is directly taken into account. Shocks have regime-dependent effects that are attributable primarily to switching dynamics as opposed to shock size. Finally, shocks are amplified through financial fragility, suggesting the presence of a debt-deflation channel. The third chapter assesses the linkages between the real economy and the financial intermediation sector over the period 1999-2015 within a time-varying parameter framework with stochastic volatility. Low volatility and a period of protracted economic growth initiate a feedback loop between the real economy and the financial sector, consistent with the financial instability hypothesis of Minsky (1986). Shocks that adversely affect expectations of future economic growth have the greatest impact when macro-financial linkages are strongest. Augmenting the model with macroprudential capital requirements and monetary policy adjusted for the zero lower bound, we provide evidence that the timing of policy interventions matters. Counter-cyclical interventions produce a stabilising effect when implemented early but are also capable of exacerbating debt-deflation if employed too late in the financial cycle.
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Salvato, Márcio Antônio. "Ensaios em macroeconometria." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/1052.
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Previous issue date: 2003-12-19Este trabalho, no capítulo um, investiga amplamente a evolução do consumo de bens duráveis no Brasil a partir da decisão de consumo individual e da possibilidade de existir restrição ao crédito. A contribuição mais relevante consiste na não rejeição da hipótese de separabilidade nas decisões de consumo de bens duráveis e não duráveis, já que tal hipótese é implicitamente utilizada por vários artigos que trataram a questão do consumo agregado no Brasil. Os resultados, aqui encontrados, sugerem que uma grande parcela dos consumidores está restrita ao crédito, existindo restrições de curto prazo e longo prazo sobre a evolução do consumo de bens duráveis, não duráveis e renda. O capítulo dois investiga o impacto da escolaridade sobre a distribuição de renda do trabalho de estados/regiões do Brasil. Usando um método semi-paramétrico, discutido em DiNardo, Fortin & Lemieux (1996), mensuramos o quanto dos diferenciais de renda entre as Regiões Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil – a mais pobre e a mais rica do país – e entre os Estados do Ceará e São Paulo, podem ser explicados pelas diferenças de escolaridade da população residente. Usando dados da PNAD construímos densidades contrafactuais reponderando a distribuição da região/estado mais pobre pelo perfil de escolaridade da mais rica. Concluímos que: (i) mais de 50% do diferencial de renda é explicado pelo diferencial de escolaridade; (ii) os decis mais elevados da distribuição de renda têm maior ganho com o aumento da escolaridade, se aproximando muito da distribuição de renda do trabalho da região/estado mais rica e; (iii) o aumento da escolaridade, mantendo-se a estrutura de salários, agrava a desigualdade de renda nas regiões/estados mais pobres. No capítulo três, se propõe avaliar o efeito dos diferentes choques econômicos a partir do uso da função de bem-estar. Para tanto, usa-se o conceito de funções impulso-resposta não convencionais, onde o bem-estar é função do valor presente da utilidade do consumo. Essa técnica permite avaliar a importância relativa de diferentes choques sob um novo prisma, o que se constitui em sua maior contribuição. Decompõe-se a função impulso- esposta não convencional em choques transitórios e permanentes. Identifica-se choques 'de produtividade' e 'de preferências' usando Decomposição de Cholesky e método generalizado para as funções impulso-resposta não convencionais. O resultado permite questionar a adequação da hipótese de identificação de que a única fonte de choques permanentes seja a produtividade: não há um matching perfeito entre a decomposição permanente/transitório e a identificação de tipos de choques.
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Saraiva, Diogo Vinícius Menezes. "Essays in macroeconometrics." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16660.
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The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.
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Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel. "Essays in Macroeconometrics." Thesis, Harvard University, 2016. http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:33493287.
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This dissertation consists of three independent chapters on econometric methods for macroeconomic analysis. In the first chapter, I propose to estimate structural impulse response functions from macroeconomic time series by doing Bayesian inference on the Structural Vector Moving Average representation of the data. This approach has two advantages over Structural Vector Autoregression analysis: It imposes prior information directly on the impulse responses in a flexible and transparent manner, and it can handle noninvertible impulse response functions. The second chapter, which is coauthored with B. J. Bates, J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson, considers the estimation of dynamic factor models when there is temporal instability in the factor loadings. We show that the principal components estimator is robust to empirically large amounts of instability. The robustness carries over to regressions based on estimated factors, but not to estimation of the number of factors. In the third chapter, I develop shrinkage methods for smoothing an estimated impulse response function. I propose a data-dependent criterion for selecting the degree of smoothing to optimally trade off bias and variance, and I devise novel shrinkage confidence sets with valid frequentist coverage.Economics
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Dahlhaus, Tatjana. "Essays in Dynamic Macroeconometrics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/116080.
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Esta tesis, titulada “Ensayos en Macroeconometría dinámica” se compone de tres ensayos y estudia dinámicas macroeconómicas desde una perspectiva empírica.
El primer capítulo, titulado “Choques Tecnológicos y Horas Trabajadas: Nueva Evidencia de un Modelo Estructural de Factores” estudia los efectos de los choques tecnológicos sobre las horas trabajadas. Hasta ahora, el análisis se ha llevado a cabo utilizando exclusivamente los modelos estructurales vectoriales autoregresivos (SVAR) y los resultados obtenidos varían en función de la especificación de las horas trabajadas. En niveles, las horas trabajadas aumentan; expresadas en tasas de crecimiento, las horas caen. Aquí un enfoque diferente se toma. Los efectos sobre las horas son estimados usando un modelo estructural de factores dinámicos. El análisis se realiza con un conjunto de datos que contiene 102 series trimestrales de EE.UU. durante el período 1959Q1-2007Q4. El resultado principal es que un choque tecnológico positivo aumenta las horas trabajadas en el mediano y largo plazo aunque no tiene efecto en el impacto. Este hallazgo contrasta con el resultado obtenido en los modelos SVAR con horas expresadas en tasas de crecimiento ya que la respuesta es negativa. La diferencia es atribuible al hecho de que el choque tecnológico es no fundamental, lo que implica que un modelo VAR con un número finito de retardos no se puede utilizar para recuperar el choque tecnológico.
El segundo capítulo, titulado “Los Determinantes de Expansiones sin Crédito” estudia las características y en particular los factores determinantes de expansiones sin crédito. Después de documentar algunos hechos estilizados de expansiones sin crédito en las economías de mercados emergentes, este análisis emplea modelos de panel probit para analizar los determinantes de las expansiones sin crédito. Nuestras principales conclusiones son las siguientes: en primer lugar, nuestro análisis de frecuencias confirma hallazgos anteriores de que expansiones sin crédito no son raros. Por otra parte, se muestra que la frecuencia de expansiones sin crédito se duplica después de una crisis bancaria o de divisas. En segundo lugar, los resultados de modelos de panel probit estimados sugieren que expansiones sin crédito suelen ser precedidos por importantes descensos en la actividad económica y la tensión financiera, en particular si el endeudamiento del sector privado es alto y el país depende de las entradas de capital extranjero. Por último, nos encontramos con que la predicción de probabilidad de una recuperación del crédito, en los Estados de Europa de este que son miembros de la UE durante los próximos años varía según los países, pero es relativamente alta en los países bálticos.
Por último, el tercer capítulo, titulado “Transmisión de la Política Monetaria durante las Crisis Financieras: Una perspectiva empírica'” contesta a la pregunta de si la transmisión de la política monetaria en EE.UU. ha sido diferente durante las crisis financieras de los últimos cuarenta años. En particular, se analizan los efectos de una expansión de la política monetaria en tiempos de tensión financiera alta y en tiempos "normales". Como la pregunta a mano supone un entorno no lineal, el análisis se lleva a cabo mediante la introducción de un modelo de factores de transición suave (STFM). En este modelo, la transición entre estados (“normales” y las crisis financieras) depende de un índice de condiciones financieras que resume la información de los mercados financieros. Utilizando un conjunto de datos trimestrales durante el período 1970Q1 2009Q2 que contiene 108 EE.UU. series temporales macroeconómicas y financieras encuentro que una expansión monetaria tiene efectos más fuertes y más persistentes en las variables macroeconómicas durante las crisis financieras que. Las diferencias en los efectos entre los regímenes parecen originarse en la no linealidad en el canal de crédito.This dissertation, titled “Essays in Dynamic Macroeconometrics’’ is comprised of three essays and analyzes macroeconomic dynamics from an empirical perspective. The first chapter, titled “Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: New Evidence from a Structural Factor Model’’ studies the effects of technology shocks on hours worked. So far, the analysis has been exclusively conducted using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models and the results obtained differ strongly depending on the specification for hours worked. In levels, the hours worked increase; in growth rates, the hours fall. Here a different approach is taken. The effects on hours are estimated using a structural dynamic factor model. The analysis is performed with a data set containing 102 quarterly U.S. macroeconomic time series over the period 1959Q1-2007Q4. In line with former VAR analysis, the technology shock is identified assuming that it is the only shock having a permanent effect on the level of labor productivity. The main result is that a positive technology shock increases hours worked in the medium and long run while having no effect on impact. The finding is in contrast with that obtained in SVAR models with hours in growth rates since there the response is negative. The difference is attributable to the fact that the technology shock is nonfundamental for the growth rates of labor productivity and hours, implying that a VAR model with a finite number of lags cannot be used to recover the technology shock. The second chapter of this dissertation, titled “The Determinants of Credit-less Recoveries” is written together with my co-author Martin Bijsterbosch and aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylized facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this analysis uses panel probit models to study key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following: first, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. Finally, the third chapter, titled “Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Approach’’ aims to answer the question of whether the transmission of monetary policy in the United States has been different during the financial crises of the last forty years. In particular, I analyze the effects of a monetary policy expansion, i.e., a decrease in the Federal Funds rate, in times of high financial stress and in good or “normal” times. As the question at hand demands a non-linear environment, the analysis is carried out by introducing a Smooth Transition Factor Model (STFM). In this model the transition between states (“normal” times and financial crises) depends on a financial condition index summarizing information from financial markets. The STFM is estimated using Bayesian MCMC methods. Employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970Q1-2009Q2 containing 108 U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series I find that a monetary expansion has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption and investment during financial crises than during “normal” times. Differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from non-linearities in the credit channel.
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Pérez, Forero Fernando José. "Essays in structural macroeconometrics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/119323.
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This thesis is concerned with the structural estimation of macroeconomic models via Bayesian methods and the economic implications derived from its empirical output. The first chapter provides a general method for estimating structural VAR models. The second chapter applies the method previously developed and provides a measure of the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve for the last forty years. It uses a pool of instruments and taking into account recent practices named Unconventional Monetary Policies. Then it is shown how the monetary transmission mechanism has changed over time, focusing the attention in the period after the Great Recession. The third chapter develops a model of exchange rate determination with dispersed information and regime switches. It has the purpose of fitting the observed disagreement in survey data of Japan. The model does a good job in terms of fitting the observed data.Esta tesis trata sobre la estimación estructural de modelos macroeconómicos a través de métodos Bayesianos y las implicancias económicas derivadas de sus resultados. El primer capítulo proporciona un método general para la estimación de modelos VAR estructurales. El segundo capítulo aplica dicho método y proporciona una medida de la posición de política monetaria de la Reserva Federal para los últimos cuarenta años. Se utiliza una variedad de instrumentos y se tienen en cuenta las prácticas recientes denominadas políticas no convencionales. Se muestra cómo el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria ha cambiado a través del tiempo, centrando la atención en el período posterior a la gran recesión. El tercer capítulo desarrolla un modelo de determinación del tipo de cambio con información dispersa y cambios de régimen, y tiene el propósito de capturar la dispersión observada en datos de encuestas de expectativas de Japón. El modelo realiza un buen trabajo en términos de ajuste de los datos.
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Neto, Nicolino Trompieri. "TrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometria." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2011. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=6609.
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nÃo hÃA tese intitulada âTrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometriaâ à composta de trÃs capÃtulos. O primeiro capÃtulo aplica um modelo em painel dinÃmico para analisar a convergÃncia da taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita, numa abordagem nÃo linear atravÃs de um efeito threshold para os vinte e seis Estados brasileiros mais o Distrito Federal, durante o perÃodo 1985-2005. Os resultados indicam a existÃncia de dois clubes de convergÃncia, um formado pelos estados que se encontram no regime de baixa renda, formado pelos estados da regiÃo nordeste, norte (com exceÃÃo do estado do Amazonas) e o estado de GoiÃs, enquanto que o outro clube à formado por aqueles que se encontram no regime de alta renda, compostos pelos estados da regiÃo sul e sudeste, mais os estados de Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul e o Distrito Federal. No segundo capÃtulo aplica-se uma formulaÃÃo de tendÃncias comuns Ãs variÃveis PIB real, taxa de juros SELIC nominal, oferta monetÃria do agregado M1 e taxa de inflaÃÃo IPCA, para extrair uma medida de nÃcleo de inflaÃÃo com caracterÃsticas fowardlooking. ApÃs determinar o nÃcleo de inflaÃÃo para o IPCA, testam-se as condiÃÃes para uma medida de nÃcleo segundo Marques et al. (2003) juntamente com duas outras medidas de nÃcleo fornecidas pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Por Ãltimo testam-se a acurÃcia de previsÃes fora da amostra feitas por essas medidas para o IPCA. Os resultados confirmam que a medida de nÃcleo por tendÃncias comuns tem um bom poder preditivo. O terceiro capÃtulo testa a hipÃtese da paridade do poder de compra (PPP) para o Brasil durante o perÃodo de 1985 a 2008 atravÃs da aplicaÃÃo dos testes de raiz unitÃria em painel com dependÃncia transversal apresentados em Moon e Perron (2004) e Pesaran (2007). Utiliza-se como base de dados o Ãndice de inflaÃÃo INPC para nove regiÃes metropolitanas: Belo Horizonte, BelÃm, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, SÃo Paulo e Salvador. Os resultados mostram mudanÃa de persistÃncia apÃs a implementaÃÃo do Plano Real. Enquanto que no perÃodo de alta inflaÃÃo a hipÃtese de Paridade do Poder de Compra PPP à satisfeita, no perÃodo de estabilizaÃÃo de preÃos a PPP nÃo à satisfeita. Este resultado à fortalecido atravÃs da anÃlise das estatÃsticas descritivas dos dados.
The thesis entitled "TrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometria" is composed of three chapters. The first chapter applies a dynamic panel model to analyze the convergence rate of growth of GDP per capita, non-linear approach using a threshold effect for the twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Distrito Federal during the period 1985-2005. The results indicate the existence of two convergence clubs, one formed by the states that are in the regime of low income, formed by the Northeast region, north (with the exception of the state of Amazonas) and the state of GoiÃs, while other club consists of those who are in the regime of income, formed by the states of South and Southeast, over the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Distrito Federal. The second chapter presents a formulation of common trends in the variables real GDP, nominal interest rate Selic, money supply of M1 and IPCA inflation rate, to extract a measure of core inflation with features foward-looking. After determining the core inflation for the IPCA, we tested the conditions for a measure of core second Marques et al. (2003) along with two other core measures provided by the Banco Central do Brasil. Finally, we tested the accuracy of forecasts out of sample made by these measures to the IPCA. The results confirm that the measure of core inflation by common trends have a good predictive power. The third chapter tests the hypothesis of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Brazil during the period 1985 to 2008 by applying the unit root tests in panel with cross section dependence presented in Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007 ). We tested the index of inflation INPC for nine metropolitan areas: Belo Horizonte, BelÃm, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, SÃo Paulo and Salvador. The results show a change in persistence after the Plano Real. While in the period of high inflation the PPP is satisfied, the period of stabilization of prices to PPP is not satisfied. This result is strengthened by examining the descriptive statistics of the data.
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TrompierI, neto Nicolino. "Três ensaios em macroeconometria." reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFC, 2009. http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/1041.
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TROMPIERI NETO, Nicolino. Três ensaios em macroeconometria. 2009. 95f. Tese (Doutorado em Economia) Programa de Pós Graduação em Economia, CAEN, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2009.Submitted by Mônica Correia Aquino (monicacorreiaaquino@gmail.com) on 2011-11-04T18:39:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2009_tese_ntrompierineto.pdf: 863255 bytes, checksum: 1140e237fbb33b6b0caeab1cf9f03537 (MD5)
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The thesis entitled "Três Ensaios em Macroeconometria" is composed of three chapters. The first chapter applies a dynamic panel model to analyze the convergence rate of growth of GDP per capita, non-linear approach using a threshold effect for the twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Distrito Federal during the period 1985-2005. The results indicate the existence of two convergence clubs, one formed by the states that are in the regime of low income, formed by the Northeast region, north (with the exception of the state of Amazonas) and the state of Goiás, while other club consists of those who are in the regime of income, formed by the states of South and Southeast, over the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Distrito Federal. The second chapter presents a formulation of common trends in the variables real GDP, nominal interest rate Selic, money supply of M1 and IPCA inflation rate, to extract a measure of core inflation with features foward-looking. After determining the core inflation for the IPCA, we tested the conditions for a measure of core second Marques et al. (2003) along with two other core measures provided by the Banco Central do Brasil. Finally, we tested the accuracy of forecasts out of sample made by these measures to the IPCA. The results confirm that the measure of core inflation by common trends have a good predictive power. The third chapter tests the hypothesis of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Brazil during the period 1985 to 2008 by applying the unit root tests in panel with cross section dependence presented in Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007 ). We tested the index of inflation INPC for nine metropolitan areas: Belo Horizonte, Belém, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Salvador. The results show a change in persistence after the Plano Real. While in the period of high inflation the PPP is satisfied, the period of stabilization of prices to PPP is not satisfied. This result is strengthened by examining the descriptive statistics of the data.
A tese intitulada “Três Ensaios em Macroeconometria” é composta de três capítulos. O primeiro capítulo aplica um modelo em painel dinâmico para analisar a convergência da taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita, numa abordagem não linear através de um efeito threshold para os vinte e seis Estados brasileiros mais o Distrito Federal, durante o período 1985-2005. Os resultados indicam a existência de dois clubes de convergência, um formado pelos estados que se encontram no regime de baixa renda, formado pelos estados da região nordeste, norte (com exceção do estado do Amazonas) e o estado de Goiás, enquanto que o outro clube é formado por aqueles que se encontram no regime de alta renda, compostos pelos estados da região sul e sudeste, mais os estados de Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul e o Distrito Federal. No segundo capítulo aplica-se uma formulação de tendências comuns às variáveis PIB real, taxa de juros SELIC nominal, oferta monetária do agregado M1 e taxa de inflação IPCA, para extrair uma medida de núcleo de inflação com características fowardlooking. Após determinar o núcleo de inflação para o IPCA, testam-se as condições para uma medida de núcleo segundo Marques et al. (2003) juntamente com duas outras medidas de núcleo fornecidas pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Por último testam-se a acurácia de previsões fora da amostra feitas por essas medidas para o IPCA. Os resultados confirmam que a medida de núcleo por tendências comuns tem um bom poder preditivo. O terceiro capítulo testa a hipótese da paridade do poder de compra (PPP) para o Brasil durante o período de 1985 a 2008 através da aplicação dos testes de raiz unitária em painel com dependência transversal apresentados em Moon e Perron (2004) e Pesaran (2007). Utiliza-se como base de dados o inflação INPC para nove regiões metropolitanas: Belo Horizonte, Belém, Curitiba,Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Salvador. Os resultados mostram mudança de persistência após a implementação do Plano Real. Enquanto que no período de alta inflação a hipótese de Paridade do Poder de Compra PPP é satisfeita, no período de estabilização de preços a PPP não é satisfeita. Este resultado é fortalecido através da análise das estatísticas descritivas dos dados.
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Bañbura, Marta. "Essays in dynamic macroeconometrics." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210294.
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The thesis contains four essays covering topics in the field of macroeconomic forecasting.The first two chapters consider factor models in the context of real-time forecasting with many indicators. Using a large number of predictors offers an opportunity to exploit a rich information set and is also considered to be a more robust approach in the presence of instabilities. On the other hand, it poses a challenge of how to extract the relevant information in a parsimonious way. Recent research shows that factor models provide an answer to this problem. The fundamental assumption underlying those models is that most of the co-movement of the variables in a given dataset can be summarized by only few latent variables, the factors. This assumption seems to be warranted in the case of macroeconomic and financial data. Important theoretical foundations for large factor models were laid by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000) and Stock and Watson (2002). Since then, different versions of factor models have been applied for forecasting, structural analysis or construction of economic activity indicators. Recently, Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2008) have used a factor model to produce projections of the U.S GDP in the presence of a real-time data flow. They propose a framework that can cope with large datasets characterised by staggered and nonsynchronous data releases (sometimes referred to as “ragged edge”). This is relevant as, in practice, important indicators like GDP are released with a substantial delay and, in the meantime, more timely variables can be used to assess the current state of the economy.
The first chapter of the thesis entitled “A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP” is based on joint work with Gerhard Rünstler and applies the framework of Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2008) to the case of euro area. In particular, we are interested in the role of “soft” and “hard” data in the GDP forecast and how it is related to their timeliness.
The soft data include surveys and financial indicators and reflect market expectations. They are usually promptly available. In contrast, the hard indicators on real activity measure directly certain components of GDP (e.g. industrial production) and are published with a significant delay. We propose several measures in order to assess the role of individual or groups of series in the forecast while taking into account their respective publication lags. We find that surveys and financial data contain important information beyond the monthly real activity measures for the GDP forecasts, once their timeliness is properly accounted for.
The second chapter entitled “Maximum likelihood estimation of large factor model on datasets with arbitrary pattern of missing data” is based on joint work with Michele Modugno. It proposes a methodology for the estimation of factor models on large cross-sections with a general pattern of missing data. In contrast to Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2008), we can handle datasets that are not only characterised by a “ragged edge”, but can include e.g. mixed frequency or short history indicators. The latter is particularly relevant for the euro area or other young economies, for which many series have been compiled only since recently. We adopt the maximum likelihood approach which, apart from the flexibility with regard to the pattern of missing data, is also more efficient and allows imposing restrictions on the parameters. Applied for small factor models by e.g. Geweke (1977), Sargent and Sims (1977) or Watson and Engle (1983), it has been shown by Doz, Giannone and Reichlin (2006) to be consistent, robust and computationally feasible also in the case of large cross-sections. To circumvent the computational complexity of a direct likelihood maximisation in the case of large cross-section, Doz, Giannone and Reichlin (2006) propose to use the iterative Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm (used for the small model by Watson and Engle, 1983). Our contribution is to modify the EM steps to the case of missing data and to show how to augment the model, in order to account for the serial correlation of the idiosyncratic component. In addition, we derive the link between the unexpected part of a data release and the forecast revision and illustrate how this can be used to understand the sources of the
latter in the case of simultaneous releases. We use this methodology for short-term forecasting and backdating of the euro area GDP on the basis of a large panel of monthly and quarterly data. In particular, we are able to examine the effect of quarterly variables and short history monthly series like the Purchasing Managers' surveys on the forecast.
The third chapter is entitled “Large Bayesian VARs” and is based on joint work with Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin. It proposes an alternative approach to factor models for dealing with the curse of dimensionality, namely Bayesian shrinkage. We study Vector Autoregressions (VARs) which have the advantage over factor models in that they allow structural analysis in a natural way. We consider systems including more than 100 variables. This is the first application in the literature to estimate a VAR of this size. Apart from the forecast considerations, as argued above, the size of the information set can be also relevant for the structural analysis, see e.g. Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005), Giannone and Reichlin (2006) or Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1999) for a discussion. In addition, many problems may require the study of the dynamics of many variables: many countries, sectors or regions. While we use standard priors as proposed by Litterman (1986), an
important novelty of the work is that we set the overall tightness of the prior in relation to the model size. In this we follow the recommendation by De Mol, Giannone and Reichlin (2008) who study the case of Bayesian regressions. They show that with increasing size of the model one should shrink more to avoid overfitting, but when data are collinear one is still able to extract the relevant sample information. We apply this principle in the case of VARs. We compare the large model with smaller systems in terms of forecasting performance and structural analysis of the effect of monetary policy shock. The results show that a standard Bayesian VAR model is an appropriate tool for large panels of data once the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the model size.
The fourth chapter entitled “Forecasting euro area inflation with wavelets: extracting information from real activity and money at different scales” proposes a framework for exploiting relationships between variables at different frequency bands in the context of forecasting. This work is motivated by the on-going debate whether money provides a reliable signal for the future price developments. The empirical evidence on the leading role of money for inflation in an out-of-sample forecast framework is not very strong, see e.g. Lenza (2006) or Fisher, Lenza, Pill and Reichlin (2008). At the same time, e.g. Gerlach (2003) or Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2007, 2008) argue that money and output could affect prices at different frequencies, however their analysis is performed in-sample. In this Chapter, it is investigated empirically which frequency bands and for which variables are the most relevant for the out-of-sample forecast of inflation when the information from prices, money and real activity is considered. To extract different frequency components from a series a wavelet transform is applied. It provides a simple and intuitive framework for band-pass filtering and allows a decomposition of series into different frequency bands. Its application in the multivariate out-of-sample forecast is novel in the literature. The results indicate that, indeed, different scales of money, prices and GDP can be relevant for the inflation forecast.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Plödt, Martin [Verfasser]. "Essays in Macroeconometrics / Martin Plödt." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2016. http://d-nb.info/110625015X/34.
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Lhuissier, Stéphane. "Three essays in applied macroeconometrics." Thesis, Paris 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA010085.
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Cette thèse présente trois essais en macroéconométrie appliquée. Leur dénominateur commun est l’emploi conjoint de méthodes non-linéaires et bayesiennes afin de rendre compte de cycles économiques. Le choix de ces méthodes s’appuie sur deux constats fondamentaux. Premièrement, la plupart des séries temporelles macroéconomiques et financières présentent de soudains changements dans leur comportement résultant d’évènements tels que les crises financières, les changements brutaux de politiques fiscales et monétaires, l’alternance de phases d’expansion et de récession, etc. La prise en compte de ces changements discontinus et occasionnels nécessite une modélisation non-linéaire, c’est-à-dire la conception de modèles dont les paramètres évoluent au cours du temps. Deuxièmement, l’analyse économétrique moderne des modèles à vecteur autorégressif (VAR) et des modèles dynamiques et stochastiques d’équilibre général (DSGE) soulève de nombreux problèmes auxquels peut répondre un cadre bayesien. Tout d’abord, les modèles DSGE correspondent à une représentation partielle et simplifiée de la réalité, cette dernière étant généralement trop compliquée pour être formalisée ou trop coûteuse en termes de ressources computationnelles ou intellectuelles. Cette mauvaise spécification, inhérente aux modèles DSGE, s’ajoute en général à une pénurie de données informatives nécessaires à l’obtention de réponses précises. Dans un cadre bayesien, le praticien introduit une information supplémentaire, une distribution a priori, qui rend l’inférence des paramètres du modèle plus accessible aux macroéconomistes. S’agissant des modèles DSGE, la distribution a priori, construite à partir d’informations microéconomiques telles que les élasticités agrégées ou les taux de croissance moyens des variables macroéconomiques à long terme, permet de déplacer la fonction de vraisemblance du modèle dans les régions économiquement interprétables de l’espace de paramètres. Ceci, en vue de parvenir à une interprétation raisonnable des paramètres structurels du modèle, rendant ainsi l’inférence beaucoup plus précise. [...]This dissertation presents three essays in applied macroeconometrics. Their common denominator is the use of Bayesian and non-linear methods to study of business cycle fluctuations. The first chapter of this dissertation revisits the issue of whether business cycles with financial crises are different, in the euro area since 1999. To do so, I fit a vector autoregression in which equation coefficients and structural disturbance variances are allowed to change over time according to Markov-switching processes. I show that financial crises have been characterized by changes not only in the variances of structural shocks, but also in the predictable and systematic part of the financial sector. By predictable and systematic part of the financial sector, I mean equation coefficients that describe the financial behavior of the system. I then examine the role of financial sector in financial crises and standard business-cycle fluctuations. The evidence indicates that the relative importance of financial shocks (“non-systematic part”) is significantly higher in periods of financial distress than in non-distress periods, but the transmission of these shocks to the economy appears linear over time. Counterfactual analyses suggest that the systematic part of financial sector accounted for up to 2 and 4 percentage points of output growth drops during the downturn in 2001-2003 and the two recessions, respectively. The second chapter examines the quantitative sources of changes in the macroeconomic volatility of the euro area since 1985. To do so, I estimate a variety of large-scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in which structural disturbance variances are allowed to change according to a Markov-switching process. The empirical results show that the best-fit model is one in which all shock variances are allowed to switch between a low- and a high-volatility regime, where regime changes in the volatilities of structural shocks are synchronized. The highvolatility regime was in place during the pre-euro period, while the low-volatility regime has been prevailed since the euro introduction. Although the size of different types of shock differs between the two shock regimes, their relative importance remains unchanged. Neutral technology shocks and shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the dominant sources of business cycle fluctuations. Moreover, the decline in the variance of investment shocks coincide remarkably well with the development of the European financial market that has increased access to credit by firms and households, suggesting that investment shocks reflect shocks originating in the financial system. [...]
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Santos, Fernando Genta dos. "Ensaios sobre macroeconometria bayesiana aplicada." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-04042012-201945/.
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Os três artigos que compõe esta Tese possuem em comum a utilização de técnicas macroeconométricas bayesianas, aplicadas a modelos dinâmicos e estocásticos de equilíbrio geral, para a investigação de problemas específicos. Desta forma, esta Tese busca preencher importantes lacunas presentes na literatura nacional e internacional. No primeiro artigo, estimou-se a importância do canal de custo da política monetária por meio de um modelo novo-keynesiano dinâmico e estocástico de equilíbrio geral. Para tanto, alteramos o modelo convencional, assumindo que uma parcela das firmas precise contrair empréstimos para pagar sua folha salarial. Desta forma, a elevação da taxa nominal de juro impacta positivamente o custo unitário do trabalho efetivo, podendo acarretar em aumento da inflação. Este artigo analisa as condições necessárias para que o modelo gere esta resposta positiva da inflação ao aperto monetário, fenômeno esse que ficou conhecido como price puzzle. Devido ao uso da metodologia DSGE-VAR, os resultados aqui encontrados podem ser comparados tanto com a literatura que trata o puzzle como um problema de identificação dos modelos VAR como com a literatura que avalia o canal de custo por meio de modelos novo-keynesianos. No segundo artigo, avaliamos até que ponto as expectativas de inflação geradas por um modelo dinâmico e estocástico de equilíbrio geral são compatíveis com as expectativas coletadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB). Este procedimento nos permite analisar a racionalidade das expectativas dos agentes econômicos brasileiros, comparando-as não à inflação observada, mas sim à projeção de um modelo desenvolvido com a hipótese de expectativas racionais. Além disso, analisamos os impactos do uso das expectativas coletadas pelo BCB na estimação do nosso modelo, no que se refere aos parâmetros estruturais, função de resposta ao impulso e análise de decomposição da variância. Por fim, no terceiro artigo desta Tese, modificamos o modelo novo-keynesiano convencional, de forma a incluir a teoria do desemprego proposta pelo economista Jordi Galí. Com isso, procuramos preencher uma lacuna importante na literatura nacional, dominada por modelos que não contemplam a possibilidade de desequilíbrios no mercado de trabalho capazes de gerar desemprego involuntário. A interpretação alternativa do mercado de trabalho aqui utilizada permite superar os problemas de identificação notoriamente presentes na literatura, tornando o modelo resultante mais robusto. Desta forma, utilizamos o modelo resultante para, dentre outras coisas, avaliar os determinantes da taxa de desemprego ao longo da última década.The three articles that comprise this thesis have in common the use of macroeconometric bayesian techniques, applied to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, for the investigation of specific problems. Thus, this thesis seeks to fill important gaps present in the national and international literatures. In the first article, I estimated the importance of the cost-push channel of monetary policy through a new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. To this end, we changed the conventional model, assuming now that a share of firms needs to borrow to pay its payroll. Thus, an increase in the nominal interest rate positively impacts the effective unit labor cost and may result in an inflation hike. This article analyzes the necessary conditions for the model to exhibit a positive response of inflation to a monetary tightening, a phenomenon that became known as the price puzzle. Because I use the DSGE-VAR methodology, the present results can be compared both with the empirical literature dealing with the puzzle as an identification problem of VAR models and with the theoretical literature that evaluates the cost-push channel through new keynesian models. In the second article, we assess the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model are consistent with expectations compiled by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). This procedure allows us to analyze the rationality of economic agents\' expectations in Brazil, comparing them not with the observed inflation, but with the forecasts of a model developed with the hypothesis of rational expectations. In addition, we analyze the impacts of using expectations compiled by the BCB in the estimation of our model, looking at the structural parameters, the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. Finally, the third article in this thesis, I modified the conventional new keynesian model, to include unemployment as proposed by the economist Jordi Galí. With that, I fill an important gap in the national literature, dominated by models that do not contemplate the possibility of disequilibrium in the labor market that can generate involuntary unemployment. The alternative interpretation of the labor market used here overcomes the identification problems notoriously present in the literature, making the resulting model more robust to the Lucas critique. Thus, I use the resulting model to assess the determinants of the unemployment rate over the last decade, among other points.
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Junior, Luiz Alberto Rabi. "Três ensaios sobre macroeconometria aplicada." Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-14012009-143752/.
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Os três artigos que compõem esta Tese possuem em comum a utilização de técnicas macroeconométricas para a investigação de problemas específicos. Embora no campo da macroeconometria os modelos do tipo Vetores Auto Regressivos (VAR) costumam ser uma das principais ferramentas utilizadas, muitas vezes precisamos complementar esta abordagem por outras técnicas para extrairmos conclusões mais apropriadas. É justamente isto que acontece com cada um dos artigos desta Tese. No primeir o artigo, foram construídas estimativas para a série do PIB mensal para o Brasil mediante aplicação de modelos de desagregação de séries temporais. Embora o método de estimação destes modelos seja o de mínimos quadrados generalizados (GLS), utilizou-se um modelo VAR para apurar o erro médio de projeção da taxa de inflação associado a cada uma das séries do PIB mensal encontrada para cada método de desagregação temporal empregado. No segundo artigo, foi avaliado se o fenômeno conhecido como price puzzle pode ser explicado pela presença de um canal de custo da política monetária. A investigação econométrica empregada para se verificar a existência de tal canal foi através de estimações, pelo método dos momentos generalizados (GMM), da Curva de Phillips Novo-Keynesiana Híbrida (HNKPC) estendida pela presença do canal de custo. Adicionalmente, ampliou-se a especificação do modelo VAR inicialmente considerado a fim de verificar se, na eventualidade de rejeição da existência do canal de custo para a economia brasileira, problemas de má especificação poderiam ser responsáveis pelo surgimento do price puzzle. Por fim, no terceiro artigo foi investigado se existe, ou não, complementaridade entre os investimentos públicos e privados no Brasil. Partindo de um modelo VAR inicial e efetuandose os testes de cointegração, conclui-se que é possível identificar um processo de mecanismo de correção de erros (VECM) entre o investimento público e privado no país, muito embora existam evidências de que a relação de complementaridade possa ter sofrido enfraquecimento ao longo do tempo. Assim, para verificar tal suspeita, conduziu-se uma análise via modelos de regressão com parâmetros variáveis no tempo (TVP), estimados mediante a aplicação do filtro de Kalman. Em suma, os três artigos desta Tese fornecem uma razoável combinação das principais técnicas macroeconométricas quando aplicadas sobre problemas específicos.The three articles of this thesis have in common the use of macroeconometric techniques which investigate specific problems. Although in the field of macroeconometrics the VAR models are one of the most popular tools, very often we need to add other techniques to this framework, in order to achieve more appropriate conclusions. That is exactly what is applied to every article of this thesis. In the first article we construct estimates for the monthly GDP of Brazil by applying temporal disaggregation models. Although the method used in these models are the Generalized Least Squares (GLS), we estimate a VAR to find the average forecast error of the inflation rate associated to each of the GDP series found for each method of time-series disaggregation. In the second article, we evaluate if the so-called phenomenon \"price puzzle\" can be explained by the presence of a cost channel of monetary policy. The econometric investigation able to verify the existence of such channel, through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), is the Hybrid New -Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC), extended by the presence of the cost channel. In addition, we amplify the specification of the VAR model considered in the beginning, in order to verify whether problems of misspecification could be responsible for the arise of the \"price puzzle\", in the case of rejection of existence of cost channel for the Brazilian economy. Finally, the third article investigates whether private and public investments in Brazil are complements. From an initial VAR model, we apply cointegration tests which are able to reveal that it is possible to identify a process of error correction (VECM) between public and private investment in Brazil, although there is evidence that their relationship has been losing strength over time. Therefore, in order to investigate such suspicion, we conduct an analysis of Time Varying Parameters models (TVP), estimated by a Kalman f ilter. In conclusion, the three articles of this thesis offer a reasonable combination of the main macroeconometric techniques when applied to specific problems.
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Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho. "Ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/1054.
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Previous issue date: 2003-12-22Esta tese de doutorado está composta por quatro ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças com aplicações nas áreas de abertura comercial, custo de bem estar do ciclo de negócios e taxas de juros. No primeiro ensaio analisamos o comportamento da indústria de transformação após as reformas implantadas na década de noventa. Verificamos se o processo de abertura gerou aumentos da produtividade média da indústria de transformação. Adicionalmente, estimamos o mark-up de diferentes setores industriais e testamos se este se modifica após a abertura comercial. Os resultados das estimações indicam a existência de um significativo aumento na produtividade industrial na maior parte dos setores estudados. O canal para este aumento de produtividade, aparentemente, não é o aumento da concorrência, já que não há evidência estatística de redução de mark-up. Este é talvez o resultado mais surpreendente do artigo, o fato de que o mark-up não se modificar significativamente após a abertura comercial. Os setores estimados como não concorrenciais antes da abertura continuaram a ser depois dela. Acesso a insumo importados e uso de novas tecnologias podem ser possíveis canais de aumento de produtividade. Este resultado está em desacordo com Moreira (1999) que constrói diretamente dos dados medidas de mark-up. No segundo ensaio testamos a Hipótese das Expectativas Racionais (HER) para a estrutura a termo brasileira. Examinamos várias combinações de prazos entre 1 dia e 1 ano, seguindo a metodologia adotada pelo Banco Central do Brasil, para o período de Julho de 1996 a Dezembro de 2001. Mostramos que: (i) os coeficientes estimados dos diferenciais de rendimento entre as taxas longa e curta (yield spreads) nas equações de mudança de curto prazo da taxa longa e nas equações de mudança de longo prazo da taxa curta são imprecisos e incapazes de rejeitarem a HER; e (ii) diferenciais de rendimento altamente correlacionados com as previsões de expectativas racionais das futuras mudanças das taxas curtas, mas significativamente mais voláteis que estas últimas, sugerem a rejeição da HER. A hipótese alternativa de reação exagerada (overreaction) do diferencial de rendimento em relação à expectativa das futuras variações da taxa curta parece uma explicação razoável para as evidências, com implicações para a política monetária e para a gestão de investimentos. No terceiro ensaio estudamos o custo de bem-estar dos ciclos de negócios. Robert Lucas (1987) mostrou um resultado surpreendente para a literatura de ciclos de negócios, o custo de bem-estar, por ele calculado, é muito pequeno (US$ 8,50 por ano). Modelamos as preferências por funções com elasticidade de substituição constante e uma forma reduzida para o consumo razoável. Construímos dados seculares para a economia americana e computamos o custo de bem-estar para dois períodos distintos, pré e pós-segunda guerra mundial, usando três formas alternativas de decomposição tendência-ciclo, com foco na decomposição de Beveridge-Nelson. O período pós-guerra foi calmo, com um custo de bem-estar que raramente ultrapassa 1% do consumo per-capita (US$ 200,00 por ano). Para o período pré-guerra há uma alteração drástica nos resultados, se utilizamos a decomposição de Beveridge-Nelson encontramos uma compensação de 5% do consumo per-capita (US$ 1.000,00 por ano) com parâmetros de preferências e desconto intertemporal razoáveis. Mesmo para métodos alternativos, como o modelo com tendência linear, encontramos um custo de bem estar de 2% do consumo per-capita (US$ 400,00 por ano). Deste estudo podemos concluir: (i) olhando para dados pós-guerra, o custo de bem-estar dos ciclos de negócios marginal é pequeno, o que depõe contra a intensificação de políticas anticíclicas, sendo que do ponto de vista do consumidor pré-segunda guerra este custo é considerável; e (ii) o custo de bem-estar dos ciclos de negócios caiu de 5% para 0.3% do consumo per-capita, do período pré para o período pós-guerra, se esta redução é resultado de políticas anticíclicas, estas políticas foram muito bem sucedidas. Por último, no quarto ensaio analisamos o comportamento da taxa de juros livre de risco - cupom cambial - na economia brasileira para o período de 20 de janeiro de 1999 a 30 de julho de 2003. Identificamos os componentes de curto e longo prazo de três medidas de taxa de retorno, as quais foram submetidas aos tratamentos econométricos propostos em Vahid e Engle (1993) e Proietti (1997). Os resultados sugerem a convergência das taxas de retorno para um equilíbrio de longo prazo. Identificamos a dominância do componente de longo prazo na determinação da trajetória do Prêmio do C-BOND e do componente de curto prazo no caso do Prêmio do Swap Cambial. Já para o Prêmio Descoberto de Juros não conseguimos identificar o domínio de qualquer componente. Associando o componente de longo prazo aos fundamentos da economia e os componentes de curto prazo a choques nominais, poderíamos dizer que, em termos relativos, o Prêmio do C-BOND estaria mais fortemente ligado aos fundamentos e o Prêmio do Swap Cambial a choques nominais.
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Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza. "Ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/1066.
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Previous issue date: 2007-11-22This thesis is composed of three essays referent to the subjects of macroeconometrics and Önance. In each essay, which corresponds to one chapter, the objective is to investigate and analyze advanced econometric techniques, applied to relevant macroeconomic questions, such as the capital mobility hypothesis and the sustainability of public debt. A Önance topic regarding portfolio risk management is also investigated, through an econometric technique used to evaluate Value-at-Risk models. The Örst chapter investigates an intertemporal optimization model to analyze the current account. Based on Campbell & Shillerís (1987) approach, a Wald test is conducted to analyze a set of restrictions imposed to a VAR used to forecast the current account. The estimation is based on three di§erent procedures: OLS, SUR and the two-way error decomposition of Fuller & Battese (1974), due to the presence of global shocks. A note on Granger causality is also provided, which is shown to be a necessary condition to perform the Wald test with serious implications to the validation of the model. An empirical exercise for the G-7 countries is presented, and the results substantially change with the di§erent estimation techniques. A small Monte Carlo simulation is also presented to investigate the size and power of the Wald test based on the considered estimators. The second chapter presents a study about Öscal sustainability based on a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. A novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones is proposed, which allows one to identify trajectories of public debt that are not compatible with Öscal sustainability. Moreover, such trajectories are used to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run Öscal sustainability. An out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling is also constructed, and can be used by policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. An empirical exercise by using Brazilian data is conducted to show the applicability of the methodology. In the third chapter, an alternative backtest to evaluate the performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models is proposed. The econometric methodology allows one to directly test the overall performance of a VaR model, as well as identify periods of an increased risk exposure, which seems to be a novelty in the literature. Quantile regressions provide an appropriate environment to investigate VaR models, since they can naturally be viewed as a conditional quantile function of a given return series. An empirical exercise is conducted for daily S&P500 series, and a Monte Carlo simulation is also presented, revealing that the proposed test might exhibit more power in comparison to other backtests.
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Gutierrez, Enrique Carrasco. "Ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2719.
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This thesis is composed of four essays referent to the subjects of macroeconometrics and nance. In each essay, which corresponds to one chapter, the objective is to investigate and analyze advanced econometric techniques, applied to relevant macroeconomic and nancial questions.
A presente tese é composta de quatro ensaios sobre macroeconometria e finanças. Em cada ensaio, que corresponde a um capítulo, o objetivo é investigar e analisar as técnicas econometrias avançadas, aplicadas às questões macroeconômicas e financeiras relevantes.