Academic literature on the topic 'Long term prediction of vessel motion'

The growing use of marine composite materials has led to many technical challenges and one is predicting lifetime durability. This analysis step has a large uncertainty due to the lack of data from in-service composite vessels. Analytical models based on classical lamination theory, finite-element analysis, ship motions, probability and wind and wave mechanicswere used in this project to predict hull laminate strains, and fatigue tests were used to determine S-N residual stiffness properties of coupons. These predictions and test data were compared against two cored fiberglass sisterships having significantly different fatigue histories and undamaged laminates representing a new vessel. Strains were measured while underway and good correlation was achieved between predictions and measurements. Fatigue damage indicators were identified which could be used in vessel inspection procedures. Endurance limits were found to be near 25% of static failure load, indicating that a fatigue design factor of four is required for infinite service with this material. Standard moisture experiments using boiling water were compared with long-term exposure. Results indicated the boiling water test yielded significantly conservative values and was not a reliable means of predicting long-term effects. Panel tests were compared with a combined coupon and finite-element procedure. Results indicated the proposed procedure was a viable substitute, at least for the materials studied. A rational explanation for using thicker outer skin laminates in marine composites was identified through single-sided moisture flex tests. These showed that the reduced strength and stiffness due to moisture of the outer hull skin laminate could be compensated by increased thickness. Although the resulting unbalanced laminate is not ideal from a warping standpoint, the approach leads to consistent tensile failure of the inner skin when subjected to normal loads. Permeability considerations make this desirable for hull laminates.

Controllability is an important maritime quality that determines the efficiency of ship handling. When developing course control systems, it is necessary to take into account the operational characteristics of the vessel, as well as external factors affecting it. The complexity of ship handling, as an object of handling, arises due to the continuous influence of various factors that affect the controllability of the ship. The environmental conditions in which the course management task has to be solved are diverse - stormy weather, ice conditions, shallow water, tides, restricted waters(congested areas), proximity of other vessels, etc. All these factors cannot be comprehensively taken into account by traditional mathematical methods, while ensuring the necessary adequacy of real processes. This paper considers existing approaches to controlling the movement of a ship on a course, such as course control, disturbance control, ship movement control on a course based on the principle of long-term prediction, lateral deviation, intellectual approaches to ship control. The most necessary way to improve the quality of the vessel's course is to control the disturbance by consistently calculating and observing the vessel's movement. The main disturbing effect in stabilizing the course is caused by sea waves. In stormy weather, forced oscillations are imposed on the ship's own motions on the course. The amplitude and period of yawing depend on the level of sea state, the direction and strength of the wind, the tonnage of the vessel, its loading condition, speed, effectiveness of the rudder and the law of control. There is a need to increase the accuracy of determining the direct relationship between the measured value of the external perturbation and the magnitude of the yaw angle. The article provides an algorithm for calculating the return of the vessel to the path line, taking into account the modulus and direction of natural disturbance obtained as a result of observation of the ship's position.

The design of ships or any other floating systems intended to operate on or close to the surface of the sea is controlled to a large extent by what is usually referred to as seakeeping, or, in more common terminology, safety at sea. This is a primary consideration and criteria, which has to be fully met. Safety of a ship naturally includes the crew, cargo and the hull itself. Seakeeping is, indeed, a generalized term and reflects the ship's capability to survive all hazards at sea such as collision, grounding, fire, as well as heavy-weather effects related to the environment in general and waves in particular. The two most likely types of failure under these conditions are due to structural causes and capsizing resulting from insufficient stability under severe weather conditions. Such criteria as economical navigation of the ship as related to speed-keeping abilities, fuel consumption, avoidance of damage to ship components and cargo, and comfort to crew or passengers, or both, are key items. The operational limits of electronic equipment, mechanical components and weapon systems on board warships are other aspects of sea keeping. In this work it is highlighted that seakeeping is a generalized term that includes a wide variety of subjects such as ship motions (amplitudes, accelerations, phases), deck wetness, slamming, steering in waves, added resistance, hydrodynamic loadings (pressures, forces, moments) and transient loads. Since the ship environmental operability or its sea keeping characteristics are closely linked to the severity of the sea, the description of the seaway is usually considered as an integral part of sea keeping. It is taken into consideration that the severity of the sea cannot be considered in absolute terms, since for each floating system, be it a ship, a platform or a buoy, the intensity of the sea state can only be determined in terms of the system's responses. Hence, different thresholds apply to different problems, and sea state 4 may be just as severe for a small patrol craft as sea state 8 may be for a larger containership. Hence, the characteristics and frequency of occurrence of waves in specific sea zones are required if a possible reduction in the system environmental operability is expected. It is demonstrated that most texts or papers, which deal with the overall question of sea keeping, devote some attention to the basic phenomena, that is, the seaway and the motions of the ship or other floating platforms as a result of the excitation imposed by the seaway. Ship motions, as such, do not always constitute the criteria for sea keeping, and much more often other responses directly related to the magnitude and phasing of the motions or the resulting velocities and accelerations constitute the prime cause for exhibiting good or bad sea keeping qualities. Such responses could be a function of the motion only, as in the case of added resistance or hydrodynamic pressures, or they could be a function of motion and other design parameters, such as freeboard in the case of deck wetness or the longitudinal weight distribution in the case of vertical bending moments. In this work, latest methods of modeling and computation for body-wave interactions described and compared with data observed for container carrier. The foregoing calculation routine Судноводіння | Shipping & Navigation ISSN 2306-5761 | 2618-0073 30-2020 Національний університет «Одеська морська академія» 79 is fairly well accepted today among naval architects specializing in the sea keeping aspects of the ship design process. Differences between the results obtained by various techniques as presented by the available computer programs are insignificant. However, since the regular-wave results are of little or no value except as input for the more realistic long- and short-term response predictions in a real seaway environment, it is important to determine which wave data information and what statistical extrapolation techniques are used to obtain the latter. The format used to describe the seaway in most ship response calculations is the wave spectrum. However, since measured spectrum for a specific sea zone or route are very rarely available, it is often necessary to use spectrum measured in one location for predictions in another location. In such a case, while the basic spectruml shape and scatter remain unchanged, the percentage of wave height distribution would vary to represent realistic conditions for the sea area in question. Such data usually are based on observations, and assuming the sample is large enough the distribution of expected wave heights should be quite reliable. An alternative approach often used in ship design is to utilize one of several theoretical spectruml formulations [2, 3, 4] such as the Pierson-Moskowitz one-parameter spectrum, the ISSC spectrum, the JONSWAP spectrum, and other. In each of these cases, some input parameters are required usually in the form of wave height, period, peak frequency, fetch, etc. The reliability of the wave data depends in these cases both on the quality of the input parameter and the adequacy of the theoretical formulation.

Blood pressure (BP) is an important indicator for measuring human health, especially continuous BP, which can indirectly reflect the operating conditions of the heart and blood vessels. The increase in wearable devices has promoted the development of high-performance flexible strain sensors that can monitor various physiological signals and human motion signals. In this work, we used carbonized non-woven lens cleaning paper as the sensitive element to prepare a wide working range (0–100% strain) and high sensitivity (sensitivity in the range of 0–60% is 32, sensitivity in the range of 60–100% strain is as high as 162), fast response capability (response time less than 20 ms), with long-term cycle stability (greater than 10,000 cycles). Based on this sensor, we collected the user’s radial artery pressure pulse wave signal, and proposed a wearable continuous BP monitoring method based on the pressure pulse wave signal. This method includes pulse wave signal monitoring, pulse wave feature extraction, and establishment of a BP prediction model. The results show that there is a strong correlation and satisfactory accuracy between the predicted BP value and the reference BP value, thus demonstrating its application potential in personal BP monitoring.

With the rapid development of marine IoT (Internet of Things), ocean MDTN (Mobile Delay Tolerant Network) has become a research hot spot. Long-term trajectory prediction is a key issue in MDTN. There are no long-term fine-grained trajectory prediction methods proposed for ocean vessels because a vessel’s mobility pattern lacks map topology support and can be easily influenced by the fish moratorium, sunshine duration, etc. A traditional on-land trajectory prediction algorithm cannot be directly utilized in this field because trajectory characteristics of ocean vessels are far different from that on land. To address the problem above, we propose a novel long-term trajectory prediction algorithm for ocean vessels, called L-VTP, by utilizing multiple sailing related parameters and K-order multivariate Markov Chain. L-VTP utilizes multiple sailing related parameters to build multiple state-transition matrices for trajectory prediction based on quantitative uncertainty analysis of trajectories. Trajectories’ sparsity of ocean vessels results in a critical state missing problem of a high-order state-transition matrix. L-VTP automatically traverses other matrices in a specific sequence in terms of quantitative uncertainty results to overcome this problem. Furthermore, the different mobility models of the same vessel during the day and the night are also exploited to improve the prediction accuracy. Privacy issues have been taken into consideration in this paper. A quantitative model considering Markov order, training metadata and privacy leak degree is proposed to help the participant make the trade-off based on their customized requirements. We have performed extensive experiments on two years of real-world trajectory data that include more than two thousand vessels. The experiment results demonstrate that L-VTP can realize fine-grained long-term trajectory prediction with the consideration of privacy issues. The average error of 4.5-hour fine-grained prediction is less than 500 m. In addition, the proposed method can be extended to 10-hour prediction with an average error of 2.16 km, which is also far less than the communication range of ocean vessel communication devices.

The prediction of ship location has become an increasingly popular research hotspot in the field of maritime transportation engineering, which benefits maritime safety supervision and security. Existing methods of ship location prediction based on motion characteristics have a large uncertainty and cannot guarantee trajectory prediction accuracy of the target ship. An improved method of location prediction using k-nearest neighbor (KNN) is proposed in this paper. An expanded circle area of the latest point of the target ship is first generated to find the reference points with similar movement characteristics in the constraints of distance and time intervals. Then, the top k-nearest neighbors are determined based on the degree of similarity. Relationships between the reference point of each neighbor and the latest points of the target ship are calculated. The predicted location of the target ship can then be determined by a weighted calculation of the locations of all neighbors at the predicted time and their relationships with the target ship. Experiments of ship location prediction in 10 min, 20 min, and 30 min were conducted. The correlation coefficient of the location prediction error for the three experiments was 0.992, 0.99, and 0.9875, respectively. The results show that ship location prediction with reference to multiple nearest neighbors with similar movements can provide better accuracy.