Journal articles: 'Long-term climate targets'

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Corfee-Morlot, Jan, and Niklas Höhne. "Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments." Global Environmental Change 13, no. 4 (December 2003): 277–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.09.001.

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Gouldson, Andy, and Rory Sullivan. "Long-term corporate climate change targets: What could they deliver?" Environmental Science & Policy 27 (March 2013): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.11.013.

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Rogelj, Joeri, Michiel Schaeffer, Malte Meinshausen, Reto Knutti, Joseph Alcamo, Keywan Riahi, and William Hare. "Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection." Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 10 (October 1, 2015): 105007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007.

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Spataru, Catalina, Paul Drummond, Eleni Zafeiratou, and Mark Barrett. "Long-term scenarios for reaching climate targets and energy security in UK." Sustainable Cities and Society 17 (September 2015): 95–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2015.03.010.

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O'Neill, B. C., K. Riahi, and I. Keppo. "Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 3 (January 13, 2010): 1011–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0903797106.

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Anderson, Kevin, Alice Bows, and Sarah Mander. "From long-term targets to cumulative emission pathways: Reframing UK climate policy." Energy Policy 36, no. 10 (October 2008): 3714–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.003.

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Sandén, Björn A., and Christian Azar. "Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets—economy wide versus technology specific approaches." Energy Policy 33, no. 12 (August 2005): 1557–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.01.012.

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Matiiuk, Yuliia, Mykolas Simas Poškus, and Genovaitė Liobikienė. "The Implementation of Climate Change Policy in Post-Soviet Countries Achieving Long-Term Targets." Sustainability 12, no. 11 (June 3, 2020): 4558. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12114558.

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Contribution to climate change mitigation is required for all world countries. Post-Soviet countries’ climate change policy strategies by 2030 (2035) were adopted relatively recently. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the achievements of climate change policy, encompassing carbon emissions, energy intensity, and renewable energy consumption, in separate Post-Soviet countries and to reveal the possibilities of reaching their long-term 2030–2035 targets. The results showed huge differences in carbon emissions, energy intensity, and the share of renewable energy consumption among Post-Soviet countries. Analyzing the trends of climate change policy implementation in almost all Post-Soviet countries (except Ukraine and Uzbekistan), carbon pollution increased during the analyzed period (2002–2014). The highest growth of emissions was observed in Georgia and Tajikistan. Furthermore, the economic development level was positively and significantly related to the level of carbon emissions. During the 2002–2014 period, energy intensity decreased in all Post-Soviet countries, particularly in those where the level was lower. The share of renewable energy consumption increased the most in countries that are members of the EU (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) and Moldova, which declared its willingness to join the EU. However, the energy intensity and the share of renewable energy consumption were insignificantly related to the level of economic development. Analyzing the possibility of achieving the Post-Soviet countries’ climate change policy targets, the results showed that only some of them will succeed. Therefore, Post-Soviet countries should implement more efficient climate change policies and effective tools in order to achieve their targets.

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Iyer, Gokul, Nathan Hultman, Jiyong Eom, Haewon McJeon, Pralit Patel, and Leon Clarke. "Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (January 2015): 103–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.025.

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O'Neill, Brian, K. Riahi, and I. Keppo. "Mitigation implications of mid-century targets that preserve long-term climate policy options." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6, no. 50 (February 1, 2009): 502001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1307/6/50/502001.

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KRIEGLER, ELMAR, MASSIMO TAVONI, TINO ABOUMAHBOUB, GUNNAR LUDERER, KATHERINE CALVIN, GAUTHIER DEMAERE, VOLKER KREY, et al. "WHAT DOES THE 2°C TARGET IMPLY FOR A GLOBAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT IN 2020? THE LIMITS STUDY ON DURBAN PLATFORM SCENARIOS." Climate Change Economics 04, no. 04 (November 2013): 1340008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400083.

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This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model-based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2°C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Platform scenarios investigated in the LIMITS study — all assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels as well as different long-term concentration targets — exhibit a probability of exceeding the 2°C limit of 22–41% when reaching 450 (450–480) ppm CO 2 e , and 35–59% when reaching 500 (480–520) ppm CO 2 e in 2100. Forcing and temperature show a peak and decline pattern for both targets. Consistency of the resulting temperature trajectory with the 2°C target is a societal choice, and may be based on the maximum exceedance probability at the time of the peak and the long run exceedance probability, e.g., in the year 2100. The challenges of implementing a long-term target after a period of fragmented near-term climate policy can be significant as reflected in steep reductions of emissions intensity and transitional and long-term economic impacts. In particular, the challenges of adopting the target are significantly higher in 2030 than in 2020, both in terms of required emissions intensity decline rates and economic impacts. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives.

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Rodríguez-Martínez, Antonio, Yolanda Lechón, Helena Cabal, David Castrejón, Marco Flores, and R. J. Romero. "Consequences of the National Energy Strategy in the Mexican Energy System: Analyzing Strategic Indicators with an Optimization Energy Model." Energies 11, no. 10 (October 20, 2018): 2837. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11102837.

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This paper presents an approach to the assessment of the Mexican energy system’s evolution under the climate and energy objectives set by the National Climate Change Strategy using an energy optimization model. Some strategic indicators have been chosen to analyze the performance of three integration elements: sustainability, efficiency, and energy security. Two scenarios have been defined in the medium and long-term: the business as usual scenario, with no energy or climate targets, and the National Climate Change Strategy scenario, where clean energy technologies and CO2 emissions objectives are considered. The aim of this work is the analysis of some of those strategic indicators’ evolution using the EUROfusion Times Model. Results show that reaching the strategy targets leads to improvements in the integration elements in the medium and long term. Besides, meeting the CO2 emission limits is achievable in terms of technologies and resources availability but at a high cost, while clean technologies targets are met with no extra costs even in the business as usual scenario.

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Geiges, Andreas, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner. "Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals." Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 3 (August 3, 2020): 697–708. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020.

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Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 ∘C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 ∘C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 ∘C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 ∘C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5 ∘C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

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McHarg, Aileen. "Climate change constitutionalism? Lessons from the United Kingdom." Climate Law 2, no. 4 (2011): 469–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/cl-2011-047.

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Preventing dangerous climate change presents a significant political challenge. Extensive, urgent, and sustained political action is required to support necessary technological, economic, and behavioural changes. Yet the long-term, global, and uncertain effects of climate change, combined with the substantial short-term costs of mitigation action create what economists term a “credible commitment” problem, given the dominance of material considerations and short-term electoral cycles in political decision-making. Accordingly, building effective climate change law is not simply about devising appropriate measures to reduce emissions, but more fundamentally about instituting legal and political “regime change”. The UK Climate Change Act 2008 represents an important attempt to address the credible commitment problem on a domestic level. Not only does it impose long-term, legally binding emissionreduction targets, it also creates a so-called “carbon accounting” regime, designed to maintain government focus on meeting the targets. The Act involves a “pre-commitment strategy” which is intended to have a systemic and transformative effect on government action, and it has been described as having a “constitutional” significance. The aim of this article is to interrogate this claim to constitutional status. It discusses, first, whether it is appropriate to describe the Act as a constitutional measure and why this classification might matter. Secondly, it considers the likely impact of the Act’s substantive and institutional/procedural provisions. Finally, it considers the wisdom of “climate change constitutionalism”, and asks whether this is an approach which ought to be emulated by other states.

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Hasegawa, Tomoko, Ronald D. Sands, Thierry Brunelle, Yiyun Cui, Stefan Frank, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Alexander Popp. "Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals." Climatic Change 163, no. 3 (August 26, 2020): 1587–601. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8.

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AbstractBioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a − 11% to + 40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from − 45 to − 2 kcal person−1 day−1, leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

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CALVIN, KATHERINE, MARSHALL WISE, DAVID KLEIN, DAVID McCOLLUM, MASSIMO TAVONI, BOB VAN DER ZWAAN, and DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN. "A MULTI-MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ROLES OF BIOENERGY IN NEAR- AND LONG-TERM CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION." Climate Change Economics 04, no. 04 (November 2013): 1340014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400149.

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This paper examines the near- and the long-term contribution of regional and sectoral bioenergy use in response to both regionally diverse near-term policies and longer-term global climate change mitigation policies. The use of several models provides a source of heterogeneity in terms of incorporating uncertain assumptions about future socioeconomics and technology, as well as different paradigms for how different regions and major economies of the world may respond to climate policies. The results highlight the heterogeneity and versatility of bioenergy itself, with different types of resources and applications in several energy sectors. In large part due to this versatility, the contribution of bioenergy to climate mitigation is a robust response across all models. Regional differences in bioenergy consumption, however, highlight the importance of assumptions about trade in bioenergy feedstocks and the influence of energy and climate policies. When global trade in bioenergy is possible, regional patterns of bioenergy use follow global patterns. When trade is assumed not to be feasible, regions with high bioenergy supply potential tend to consume more bioenergy than other regions. Energy and climate policies, such as renewable energy targets, can incentivize bioenergy use, but specifics of the policies will dictate the degree to which this is true. For example, renewable final energy targets, which include electric and non-electric renewable sources, increase bioenergy use in all models, while electric-only renewable targets have a mixed effect on bioenergy use across models.

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Keppo, Ilkka, and Bob van der Zwaan. "The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and CO2 Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement." Environmental Modeling & Assessment 17, no. 1-2 (June 28, 2011): 177–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10666-011-9283-1.

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Tanasa, C., D. Dan, C. Becchio, S. P. Corgnati, and V. Stoian. "Cost-optimal and indoor environmental quality assessment for residential buildings towards EU long-term climate targets." Energy for Sustainable Development 59 (December 2020): 49–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2020.09.002.

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Riahi, Keywan, Elmar Kriegler, Nils Johnson, Christoph Bertram, Michel den Elzen, Jiyong Eom, Michiel Schaeffer, et al. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (January 2015): 8–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016.

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Winschel, Julija. "Climate change policies and carbon-related CEO compensation systems: an exploratory study of European companies." Journal of Global Responsibility 12, no. 2 (January 22, 2021): 158–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jgr-06-2020-0065.

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Purpose In view of current climate change policies, this study aims to provide researchers, regulators, and business practice with the current picture of practices regarding carbon-related compensation granted to chief executive officers (CEO). To this end, it examines whether and to what extent European companies translate their carbon reduction strategies into carbon targets underlying their CEOs’ short-term and long-term compensation, what characteristics the carbon targets used commonly have in terms of their quality and time frame, and whether the carbon targets used differ among carbon-intensive, and less carbon-intensive companies. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the stakeholder-agency theoretical perspective, this study explores the patterns of use and characteristics of carbon-related targets in CEO compensation. In this vein, a content analysis of corporate disclosure for the business years 2018 and 2019 is conducted for a European sample of 65 large listed companies from 16 countries and 11 industries. Findings The findings of this study show that albeit the trend toward new adoption, carbon-related CEO compensation systems are still uncommon. The results also reveal that carbon targets are mainly used to determine short-term compensation. Further, the findings highlight that carbon-related CEO compensation is almost equally widespread among carbon-intensive and less carbon-intensive companies. However, in terms of target quality, the study shows that carbon-intensive companies display greater heterogeneity and opacity. Originality/value By analyzing the characteristics of carbon targets and the prevalence of carbon-related CEO compensation for the first time, this study contributes to the stakeholder-agency theoretical perspective on corporate governance. In view of the European Green Deal and climate-related stakeholder demands, regulators and business practice are encouraged to recognize that carbon-related CEO compensation should gain momentum and the disclosure on this matter should become more transparent and comparable among companies and across industries.

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Laktuka, Krista, Ieva Pakere, Dace Lauka, Dagnija Blumberga, and Anna Volkova. "Long-Term Policy Recommendations for Improving the Efficiency of Heating and Cooling." Environmental and Climate Technologies 25, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 382–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2021-0029.

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Abstract Targets set by the European Green Deal to increase efficiency, reach towards sustainable development and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have placed additional focus on necessary improvements in heating and cooling sector. This article aims to determine whether the objectives set at the EU and on the member state level for achieving climate and environmental goals are being implemented at the regional and local levels. The case of Latvia is considered. A keyword extraction text analysis method is used to identify whether improving the efficiency of heating and cooling is included in regional and local sustainable development strategies. Results are evaluated by using multi-criteria analysis methods TOPSIS and AHP, to determine how much attention in the strategies is paid to direct heating and cooling supply aspects and overall efficiency aspects. Results obtained while assessing the sustainable development strategies of cities and municipalities are compared with the climate index of their heating supply. Considerable differences can be seen in the inclusion of heating and cooling efficiency improvement plans in the strategies at regional and local levels.

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Tittensor, Derek P., Maria Beger, Kristina Boerder, Daniel G. Boyce, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Aurelie Cosandey-Godin, Guillermo Ortuño Crespo, et al. "Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean." Science Advances 5, no. 11 (November 2019): eaay9969. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay9969.

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The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

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Li, Chao, Hermann Held, Sascha Hokamp, and Jochem Marotzke. "Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target." Science Advances 6, no. 2 (January 2020): eaaw9490. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw9490.

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The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter.

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Cunha Montenegro, Roland, Vidas Lekavičius, Jurica Brajković, Ulrich Fahl, and Kai Hufendiek. "Long-Term Distributional Impacts of European Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: A CGE Multi-Regional Analysis." Sustainability 11, no. 23 (December 3, 2019): 6868. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11236868.

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Carbon pricing is a policy with the potential to reduce CO2 emissions in the household sector and support the European Union in achieving its environmental targets by 2050. However, the policy faces acceptance problems from the majority of the public. In the framework of the project Role of technologies in an energy efficient economy–model-based analysis of policy measures and transformation pathways to a sustainable energy system (REEEM), financed by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 program, we investigate the effects of such a policy in order to understand its challenges and opportunities. To that end, we use a recursive-dynamic multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model to represent carbon pricing as a cap-and-trade system and calculate its impacts on consumption of energy goods, incidence of carbon prices, and gross income growth for different income groups. We compare one reference scenario and four scenario variations with distinct CO2 reduction targets inside and outside of the EU. The results demonstrate that higher emission reductions, compared to the reference scenario, lead to slower Gross Domestic Product growth, but also produce a more equitable increase of gross income and can help reduce income inequalities. In this case, considering that the revenues of carbon pricing are paid back to the households, the gross income of the poorest quintile grows as much as, or even more in some cases, than the gross income of the richest quintile.

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Alshammari, Yousef M. "Achieving Climate Targets via the Circular Carbon Economy: The Case of Saudi Arabia." C—Journal of Carbon Research 6, no. 3 (August 31, 2020): 54. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/c6030054.

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Clean hydrocarbon technologies have a key role to play in achieving the circular carbon economy while meeting climate targets in many countries around the world. The aim of this work is to assess which technology, or combination of technologies, is the most cost-effective in achieving climate targets by 2030 leading to a quick and smooth transition to a low carbon energy system in Saudi Arabia and similar oil-based economies. We find that low carbon policy support by banning crude oil in power generation, leads to accelerated underground oil gasification, in the absence of carbon prices. We also find that setting a policy for carbon reduction targets leads to a more flexible energy system transition enabling more technologies in the mix with an increasing transition period. Our results also show that clean hydrocarbon technologies may be sufficient to achieve new climate targets, as shown by the stabilised emissions in scenario 3 by 2025, without the implementation of renewable sources of energy which most studies do not include. We propose that by investing in clean hydrocarbon technologies over the short term, the transition towards a low carbon economy will be accelerated while developing renewable sources of energy over the long term.

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Wang, Huan, and Wengying Chen. "Gaps between pre-2020 climate policies with NDC goals and long-term mitigation targets: analyses on major regions." Energy Procedia 158 (February 2019): 3664–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.894.

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Noran, Ovidiu. "An Adaptive Architecture for Long Term Energy Programme Management." E3S Web of Conferences 111 (2019): 06033. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201911106033.

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Climate change, population growth, changing energy consumption patterns and the advent of feasible renewable energy sources has prompted governments worldwide to set targets for carbon emission reductions. The transition to a ‘near zero emissions’ industry and energy production presents significant opportunities but also caveats in relation to maintaining the balance of the ‘energy triangle’ aspects, namely economic, security and environmental. Various regions and countries find themselves in different economic, cultural and geopolitical situations which require customised approaches. Moreover, the transition is likely to take significant time, with disruptive technologies emerging in the meantime; therefore, a purely technical solution is unlikely to be viable in the long run. Hence, it would be helpful to complement the supportive, albeit high-level artefacts developed by various global organisations with strategic plans satisfying and abiding by principles that maximise the chances of success. Importantly, such strategic planning must follow a method that is transferable between geographical regions and their local maturity levels in respect to energy triangle viewpoints. This paper describes challenges and highlights of planning such a strategy, including guiding principles for the solution architecture and dynamic business models describing the possible structure and relations between an energy transition programme and its projects.

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Cederberg, C., F. Hedenus, S. Wirsenius, and U. Sonesson. "Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products – implications for long-term climate targets." Animal 7, no. 2 (2013): 330–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1751731112001498.

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van Vliet, Jasper, Andries F. Hof, Angelica Mendoza Beltran, Maarten van den Berg, Sebastiaan Deetman, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Paul L. Lucas, and Detlef P. van Vuuren. "The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets." Climatic Change 123, no. 3-4 (October 18, 2013): 559–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0961-7.

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Shatokha, V. "Chasing shadows: technology and socioeconomic barriers versus climate targets for iron and steel industry." Archives of Materials Science and Engineering 1, no. 92 (July 1, 2018): 33–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0012.5510.

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Purpose: To analyse the potential of various scenarios for reduction of carbon footprint of iron and steel sector and to reveal plausible pathways for modernisation. Design/methodology/approach: Several scenarios have been developed in order to assess the dynamics and extent of decarbonisation required to meet the global climate change mitigation target. This includes deployment of the best available technologies, increased share of secondary steel production route and deployment of innovative ironmaking technologies with various decarbonisation extent achieved in a variable timeframe. Findings: The window of opportunities to ensure compliance of steel sector development with climate goal still exists though shrinks. Modernisation shall include global deployment of best available technologies, increased share of secondary steel production and rapid deployment of innovative technologies including carbon capture and storage. Delayed modernisation will require much deeper decarbonisation, which will increase the total cost of mitigation. International policies shall be put in place to ensure availability of funding and to assist technology transfer. Short term transition strategies shall be employed as soon as possible for bridging long term climate change mitigation strategies and current state of the iron and steel industry worldwide. Research limitations/implications: Methodology applied takes into account the best available technologies and some novel ironmaking methods with the potential for commercialisation during the next decade; however, it is implied that the radically innovative iron- and steelmaking technologies with near-zero CO2 emissions will not be mature enough to deliver tangible impact on the sector’s carbon footprint before 2050. Practical implications: Obtained results can be helpful for definition of the modernisation strategies (both state-level and corporate) for the iron and steel industry. Originality/value: Dynamics and extent of decarbonisation required to meet global climate change mitigation targets have been revealed and the results can be valuable for assessment of the consistency of sectoral climate strategies with global targets.

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Choumert, Johanna, Pascale Combes Motel, and Katrin Millock. "Climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing and transition countries: introduction to the special issue." Environment and Development Economics 20, no. 4 (July 2, 2015): 425–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x15000145.

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AbstractWhile mitigation efforts in developed and emerging economies are necessary in order to meet ambitious climate targets, the international community strives to explore strategies to help the most vulnerable populations to cope with the short-term and long-term impacts of climate change. In the perspective of the 21st COP of the UNFCCC (Paris, December 2015), this Special Issue on ‘Climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing and transition countries’ addresses two complementary topical issues. On the one hand, migration – international and internal – and remittances are analyzed as adaptation strategies for vulnerable households and individuals. On the other hand, climate policies in emerging economies are examined in light of their distributional impacts for households and of the strategic issues they may raise. This special issue introduces five papers with a diversity of approaches, e.g., game theory, econometric modeling and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling.

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Fernandes, Jose A., Susan Kay, Mostafa A. R. Hossain, Munir Ahmed, William W. L. Cheung, Attila N. Lazar, and Manuel Barange. "Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios." ICES Journal of Marine Science 73, no. 5 (November 26, 2015): 1357–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv217.

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Abstract The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by <10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of <20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

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Fleury-Bahi, Ghozlane. "Environmental Risk: Perception and Target with Local versus Global Evaluation." Psychological Reports 102, no. 1 (February 2008): 185–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.102.1.185-193.

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This research addressed environmental risk perception depending on the target evaluated and on the category of hazard (technological and chemical hazards, climate change, loss of biodiversity). Correlations between environmental risk assessment and pro-environmental behavioural intentions were also tested. In a sample of 113 French adults, 15 different environmental risks were evaluated for four different risk targets (oneself, the inhabitants of the town, the inhabitants of the country, and humanity). As expected, environmental hazards were perceived as a greater risk for larger areas. Moreover, risks difficult to conceptualise, which contain both high uncertainty and long-term consequences (climate change, loss of biodiversity) are perceived as less risk to oneself and to the inhabitants of the town and the country of residence than more concrete and immediate risks (technological and chemical). Only the technological and chemical hazards significantly predict pro-environmental behavioural intentions.

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Schipper, Cor A., Gerben G. J. Dekker, Beer de Visser, Bas Bolman, and Quirijn Lodder. "Characterization of SDGs towards Coastal Management: Sustainability Performance and Cross-Linking Consequences." Sustainability 13, no. 3 (February 2, 2021): 1560. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13031560.

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and associated targets focus on a wide range of global issues and can be useful in coastal challenges such as climate change and green economic growth. The aim of this study is to tailor the SDGs, as a universally recognized policy framework, to assess the sustainability performance for coastal flood protection management to enhance climate-resilient and adaptable coastal development. To operationalize this aim, the SDG Sustainability Impact Score (SDG-SIS) framework was developed. Based on system functionalities for the land–sea interface, 38 SDGs were identified in the SDG-SIS framework. Given the availability of public numeric data, only 12 SDG targets are connected with Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The SDG-SIS framework was applied to two different sets of cases, including five coastline and five sand nourishment cases. This study shows that the geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of the two sets of cases should be considered in the selection of system functionalities as well as the consideration of SDG targets. Moreover, cross-linking cumulative consequences of SIS do not directly indicate the level of sustainability, but the individual SDG target data are essential to reveal the underlying details. This stresses the importance of prioritizing SDGs to serve as leverage for policymakers to optimize the climate resilience and adaptation of coastal management. The SDG-SIS framework enables the support of coastal policy by addressing long-term measures and providing a sustainable vision for future implementation.

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Nakatani, Ryota. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States." Sustainability 13, no. 6 (March 12, 2021): 3135. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13063135.

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How should small states formulate a countercyclical fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when they are prone to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants? We study how natural disasters and climate change affect long-term debt dynamics, and we propose cutting-edge fiscal policy rules. We find the primacy of a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This innovative fiscal rule is classified as a natural disaster-resilient fiscal rule, which comprises a plethora of new advantages compared to existing fiscal rules. This new type of fiscal rule can be called as the third-generation fiscal rule. It encompasses natural disasters and climate change, uses budget data only, avoids the need for escape clauses, and operates on a timely basis. Our rule-based fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing an increasing frequency and impact of devastating natural hazards, and climatic change.

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Belesova, Kristine, Ilan Kelman, and Roger Boyd. "Governance through Economic Paradigms: Addressing Climate Change by Accounting for Health." Politics and Governance 4, no. 4 (December 28, 2016): 87–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i4.729.

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Climate change is a major challenge for sustainable development, impacting human health, wellbeing, security, and livelihoods. While the post-2015 development agenda sets out action on climate change as one of the Sustainable Development Goals, there is little provision on how this can be achieved in tandem with the desired economic progress and the required improvements in health and wellbeing. This paper examines synergies and tensions between the goals addressing climate change and economic progress. We identify reductionist approaches in economics, such as ‘externalities’, reliance on the metric of the Gross Domestic Product, positive discount rates, and short-term profit targets as some of the key sources of tensions between these goals. Such reductionist approaches could be addressed by intersectoral governance mechanisms. Health in All Policies, health-sensitive macro-economic progress indicators, and accounting for long-term and non-monetary values are some of the approaches that could be adapted and used in governance for the SDGs. Policy framing of climate change and similar issues should facilitate development of intersectoral governance approaches.

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Irsyad, Muhammad Indra al, Anthony Halog, Rabindra Nepal, and Deddy P. Koesrindartoto. "The Impacts of Emission Reduction Targets in Indonesia Electricity Systems." Indonesian Journal of Energy 2, no. 2 (August 30, 2019): 118–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.33116/ije.v2i2.42.

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Climate change policy often contradicts the least-cost objective of electricity generation in developing countries. The objective of our study is to propose electricity generation mixes that can meet emission reduction targets in Indonesia. We estimate the optimal generation mix, costs, and emissions from three scenarios, namely existing power plant planning, and 11% and 14% emission reductions in Indonesia’s electricity sector. The estimations are based on linear programming, input-output analysis, and life-cycle analysis, integrated into an agent-based modeling (ABM) platform. The simulation results confirm the existing power plant planning, which is dominated by coal-based power plants, as the lowest-cost scenario in the short-term; however, this scenario also produces the highest emissions. Emission reduction scenarios have lower emissions due to a higher share of renewables and, therefore, the Indonesian electricity system is robust from fossil fuel price increases. In the long-term, costs incurred in the emission reduction scenarios will be lower than electricity generation costs under the existing power plant planning. Our findings should be a basis for re-evaluating energy policies, power plant planning, and the research agenda in Indonesia. Keyword: linear programming, agent-based modelling (ABM), input-output analysis, life-cycle analysis

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Kost, Christoph, Julian Brandes, Charlotte Senkpiel, Philip Sterchele, Daniel Wrede, and Hans-Martin Henning. "Modeling of Persistence, Non-Acceptance and Sufficiency in Long-Term Energy Scenarios for Germany." Energies 14, no. 15 (July 24, 2021): 4484. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14154484.

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Long-term transition pathways to a low-carbon energy system are analysed by applying the energy system model REMod. All in all, the paper contributes to the current research through an innovative scenario approach, using assumptions for societal trends and quantitative results for scenarios, analysing the paths towards climate neutrality and defossilization in 2050. In the case study of Germany, these trends and drivers influence the results and the technology composition in each consumption sector (buildings, transport, and industry). Across all scenarios, it can be observed that the electrification of all sectors is important for the defossilization of the energy system, as the direct use of electricity from renewable energy is more efficient than the consumption of carbon-neutral synthetic energy carriers. However, different consumer behavior (e.g., non-acceptance or resistance against specific technologies) influences not only the efficient use of (green) electricity, it also changes the optimal pathways of the transition to paths with greater efforts. One potential societal trend—sufficiency—could be an important cornerstone for reaching the targets, as the required expansion and exchange of technologies are lower and thus facilitate the transition.

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Matthews, H. Damon, Susan Solomon, and Raymond Pierrehumbert. "Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 370, no. 1974 (September 13, 2012): 4365–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0064.

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The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO 2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO 2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO 2 relative to other major climate forcing agents.

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Bürger, Veit. "The assessment of the regulatory and support framework for domestic buildings in Germany from the perspective of long-term climate protection targets." Energy Policy 59 (August 2013): 71–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.017.

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Smol, John P. "Under the radar: long-term perspectives on ecological changes in lakes." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286, no. 1906 (July 10, 2019): 20190834. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.0834.

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Aquatic ecosystems are constantly changing due to natural and anthropogenic stressors. When dealing with such ‘moving targets’, one of the greatest challenges faced by scientists, managers and policy makers is to use appropriate time scales for environmental assessments. However, most aquatic systems lack monitoring data, and if a programme does exist, rarely have data been collected for more than a few years. Hence, it is often difficult or impossible to determine the nature and timing of ecosystem changes based on these short-term datasets. Furthermore, as environmental assessments are typically performed after a problem is identified, critical data regarding pre-disturbance (or reference) conditions are rarely available. Here, I summarize some recent studies employing lake sediment analyses (i.e. palaeolimnology) that have provided retrospective assessments of ecosystem changes that have been emerging slowly and often innocuously ‘under the radar’. My examples include the identification of legacy effects of acid rain and logging, namely long-term declines in calcium concentrations in softwater lakes, which have led to significant repercussions for ecosystem services. I then show that past trajectories of aerial pollution from the burgeoning oil sands operations of western Canada can be tracked using environmental proxies preserved in dated sediment cores, and how these data can be used to determine the relative contributions of natural versus industrial sources of pollutants. I conclude by reviewing how palaeolimnological analyses have linked climate change with the proliferation of harmful blue-green algal (cyanobacterial) blooms, even without the addition of limiting nutrients. Collectively, these studies show that effective ecosystem management, particularly for incremental environmental stressors, requires temporal sampling windows that are not readily available with standard monitoring, but can be supplemented with high-resolution lake sediment analyses.

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Walford, M. E. R., M. I. Kennett, and P. Holmlund. "Interpretation of Radio Echoes from Storglaciären, Northern Sweden." Journal of Glaciology 32, no. 110 (1986): 39–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022143000006857.

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AbstractStorglaciären (lat. 67.5°N., long. 17.5°E.) is a sub-polar glacier which has been the object of detailed study for many years. It responds in a sensitive way to annual and long-term changes in climate but it does not surge. Conditions at the bed and the distribution of englacial water are of considerable interest. In this paper we discuss an attempt to learn something about these matters by radio-echo soundings at metric and decametric wavelengths. We analyse radio-echo records mainly using a scalar-wave theory of the diffraction of pulses. The pulse shapes of echoes are useful because they help us to recognize the types of target and processes responsible for the echoes. We then use simple statistical measurements of radio echoes to provide estimates of certain average properties of the targets. We estimate, for example, the roughness of the glacier bed and the distribution and orientations of scatterers within the ice.

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Walford, M. E. R., M. I. Kennett, and P. Holmlund. "Interpretation of Radio Echoes from Storglaciären, Northern Sweden." Journal of Glaciology 32, no. 110 (1986): 39–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000006857.

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AbstractStorglaciären (lat. 67.5° N., long. 17.5° E.) is a sub-polar glacier which has been the object of detailed study for many years. It responds in a sensitive way to annual and long-term changes in climate but it does not surge. Conditions at the bed and the distribution of englacial water are of considerable interest. In this paper we discuss an attempt to learn something about these matters by radio-echo soundings at metric and decametric wavelengths. We analyse radio-echo records mainly using a scalar-wave theory of the diffraction of pulses. The pulse shapes of echoes are useful because they help us to recognize the types of target and processes responsible for the echoes. We then use simple statistical measurements of radio echoes to provide estimates of certain average properties of the targets. We estimate, for example, the roughness of the glacier bed and the distribution and orientations of scatterers within the ice.

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Kiss-Dobronyi, Bence, Dora Fazekas, and Hector Pollitt. "Macroeconomic assessment of possible Green Recovery scenarios in Visegrad countries." Society and Economy 43, no. 3 (August 31, 2021): 227–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/204.2021.00014.

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Abstract The article discusses how and why Green Recovery could be beneficial for the Visegrad countries based on a modelling exercise using the E3ME macroeconometric model. Green Recovery is defined as including policies in recovery plans that not only target economic recovery, but also contribute to environmental targets. The paper proposes that a Green Recovery could be valuable and suitable for the region contributing to both restoring employment and boosting economic activity as well as reaching climate goals. This is tested through a macroeconomic simulation, using the E3ME model. E3ME is built on Post-Keynesian economic theory and on econometric estimations of macroeconomic relationships. The results of the analysis focus on three dimensions: (1) social – employment, (2) environmental – level of CO2 emissions and (3) economic activity – gross domestic product (GDP). Outcomes indicate that a green recovery can shorten the time needed for employment and economic recovery as well as contributes to CO2 emission reductions. In Hungary, Czechia and Poland, the impact persists into the long-term; however, the paper also concludes that countries with high reliance on coal (e.g. Poland) could return to coal in the long term if no further policies are introduced.

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Mittal, Shivika, Jing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Priyadarshi Shukla. "An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India." Energies 11, no. 9 (August 24, 2018): 2213. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11092213.

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The goal of limiting global temperature rise to “well below” 2 °C has been reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement on climate change at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). Almost all countries submitted their decarbonization targets in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and India did as well. India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of national GDP in 2030 by 33–35% compared to 2005. This paper analyzes how India’s NDC commitments compare with emission trajectories consistent with well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization goals. A top-down computable general equilibrium model is used for the analysis. Our analysis shows that there are significant emission gaps between NDC and global climate stabilization targets in 2030. The energy system requires significant changes, mostly relying on renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The mitigation costs would increase if India delays its abatement efforts and is locked into NDC pathways till 2030. India’s GHG emissions would peak 10 years earlier under 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization compared to the 2 °C goal. The results imply that India would need financial and technological support from developed countries to achieve emissions reductions aligned with the global long-term goal.

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Lund, Marianne T., Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset. "A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 4 (November 9, 2020): 977–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020.

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Abstract. Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and sustainable development goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels, and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for both present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming and highlight the importance of mitigating methane emissions from agriculture, waste management, and energy production as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. We find that SLCFs are projected to play a continued role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. East Asia, North America, and Europe will remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtake Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aimed also at decision makers, to support further assessment of the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales.

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Welti, Ellen A. R., Karl A. Roeder, Kirsten M. de Beurs, Anthony Joern, and Michael Kaspari. "Nutrient dilution and climate cycles underlie declines in a dominant insect herbivore." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 13 (March 9, 2020): 7271–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920012117.

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Evidence for global insect declines mounts, increasing our need to understand underlying mechanisms. We test the nutrient dilution (ND) hypothesis—the decreasing concentration of essential dietary minerals with increasing plant productivity—that particularly targets insect herbivores. Nutrient dilution can result from increased plant biomass due to climate or CO2 enrichment. Additionally, when considering long-term trends driven by climate, one must account for large-scale oscillations including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We combine long-term datasets of grasshopper abundance, climate, plant biomass, and end-of-season foliar elemental content to examine potential drivers of abundance cycles and trends of this dominant herbivore. Annual grasshopper abundances in 16- and 22-y time series from a Kansas prairie revealed both 5-y cycles and declines of 2.1–2.7%/y. Climate cycle indices of spring ENSO, summer NAO, and winter or spring PDO accounted for 40–54% of the variation in grasshopper abundance, mediated by effects of weather and host plants. Consistent with ND, grass biomass doubled and foliar concentrations of N, P, K, and Na—nutrients which limit grasshopper abundance—declined over the same period. The decline in plant nutrients accounted for 25% of the variation in grasshopper abundance over two decades. Thus a warming, wetter, more CO2-enriched world will likely contribute to declines in insect herbivores by depleting nutrients from their already nutrient-poor diet. Unlike other potential drivers of insect declines—habitat loss, light and chemical pollution—ND may be widespread in remaining natural areas.

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Willis, Katherine J., Miguel B. Araújo, Keith D. Bennett, Blanca Figueroa-Rangel, Cynthia A. Froyd, and Norman Myers. "How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 362, no. 1478 (January 9, 2007): 175–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2006.1977.

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This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

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Ameyaw, Bismark, and Li Yao. "Analyzing the Impact of GDP on CO2 Emissions and Forecasting Africa’s Total CO2 Emissions with Non-Assumption Driven Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (August 31, 2018): 3110. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093110.

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The amount of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions emitted into the environment threatens both human and global ecosystems. Based on this background, this study first analyzed the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 emissions in five West African countries covering the period of 2007–2014 based on a panel data model. Our causality analysis revealed that there exists a unidirectional causality running from GDP to CO2 emissions. Second, after establishing the nexus between GDP and CO2 emissions, we forecast Africa’s CO2 emissions with the aim of projecting future consumption levels. With the quest to achieve climate change targets, realistic and high accuracy total CO2 emissions projections are key to drawing and implementing realizable environmentally-friendly energy policies. Therefore, we propose a non-assumption driven forecasting technique for long-term total CO2 emissions. We implement our bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) sequential algorithm formulation for both the testing stage (2006–2014) and forecasting stage (2015–2020) on Africa’s aggregated data as well as the five selected West African countries employed herein. We then propose policy recommendations based on the direction of causality between CO2 emissions and GDP, and our CO2 emissions projections in order to guide policymakers to implement realistic and sustainable policy targets for West Africa and Africa as a whole.

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Roberts, Debra, Richard Boon, Nicci Diederichs, Errol Douwes, Natasha Govender, Alistair Mcinnes, Cameron Mclean, Sean O’Donoghue, and Meggan Spires. "Exploring ecosystem-based adaptation in Durban, South Africa: “learning-by-doing” at the local government coal face." Environment and Urbanization 24, no. 1 (December 2, 2011): 167–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0956247811431412.

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The lack of progress in establishing ambitious and legally binding global mitigation targets means that the need for locally based climate change adaptation will increase in vulnerable localities such as Africa. Within this context, “ecosystem-based adaptation” (EBA) is being promoted as a cost-effective and sustainable approach to improving adaptive capacity. Experience with the ongoing development of Durban’s Municipal Climate Protection Programme indicates that achieving EBA in cities means moving beyond the conceptualization of a uniform, one-size-fits-all layer of street trees and parks to a more detailed understanding of the complex ecology of indigenous ecosystems and their resilience under climate change conditions. It also means engaging with the role that this “bio-infrastructure” plays in improving the quality of life and socioeconomic opportunities of the most vulnerable human communities. Despite the long-term sustainability gains of this approach, implementation in Durban has been shown to be both technically challenging and resource intensive. The close association between human and ecological systems in addressing climate change adaptation has also led to the development of the concept of “community ecosystem-based adaptation”.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Long-term climate targets'

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