Academic literature on the topic 'Long term camping'

This paper reports sheep camping influences on soil chemical and physical properties, and pasture dry matter (DM) production of an acidic soil on the southwest slopes of New South Wales, Australia. The experiment was conducted in the spring (October-November) of 2005 on a long-term field experimental site after 13 yr of rotational grazing. The factors considered were sheep camping (distance from the camping site), pasture type (perennial vs. annual pastures) and lime application (limed vs. unlimed treatments). Over 13 yr of rotational grazing, significant amounts of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) were deposited near the sheep camping site via the deposition of animal excreta. Total C increased from 32.8 g kg-1 20 m away from the camping site to 41.9 g kg-1 at the camping site in 0-5 cm soil depth. The Colwell P increased from 44.0 to 125.9 mg kg-1 from the non-camping area to the camping site in 0-5 cm soil depth. The most interesting result from the current study is that soil bulk density decreased as the intensity of camping increased. On the perennial pastures, soil bulk density was 0.96 and 1.34 g cm-3 at the camping site in the 0-5 and 5-10 cm soil depths, respectively, whereas soil bulk density was 1.14 and 1.39 g cm-3 at 20 m away from the camping site at the corresponding soil depths. Across pasture types, mean pasture DM was highest at the camping site (7.3 and 6.6 t ha-1 for the limed and unlimed pastures, respectively), and lowest 20 m away from the camping site (5.4 and 4.5 t ha-1 for the limed and unlimed pastures, respectively). The vigorous pasture growth and high organic matter at the camping site may have had a "cushioning effect", thereby reducing soil compaction. However, this camping effect was confined to within 5 m of the camping site. It is concluded that sheep camping can create spatial heterogeneity in soil chemical and physical properties. The non-uniform influence on pasture productivity and composition could be minimised by altering the grazing management strategies, such as periodic relocation of the site of shelter, or further subdivision of the grazing paddock, if necessary. Key words: Soil carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, bulk density, grazing management

Abstract National forest law enforcement officers regularly encounter “nonrecreational” campers whose tenure exceeds established stay limits (generally 2 weeks). Some long-term occupants are homeless and seek use of the forest as a temporary or long-term residence. Long-term nonrecreational campers present myriad concerns for forest officials, who seek to balance public access and resource conservation. In addition to biophysical impacts because of waste, disposal of chemicals, soil compaction, and damage to vegetation, nonrecreational campers can alter the social environment being shared with other forest visitors. For this exploratory study, US Forest Service law enforcement officers (n = 290) were surveyed to assess officer perceptions of the frequency of encounters, trends, and types of nonrecreational campers. We provide a descriptive summary of major findings and point out regional variations and trends. Officers perceive regional variations in the frequency of encounters with nonrecreational or homeless campers as well as types of campers encountered.

The textile industry produces large quantities of waste and scrap materials. Most of this waste requires disposal. Both environmental and economic benefits could be derived by developing commercial products to use these materials. Environmentally acceptable textile products include those that utilize recycled materials, or materials that have not been chemically processed. Such products are often not economically profitable because of the added expense necessary for environmental protection. Development of such a cost-effective textile product requires use of low-cost materials, minimal cost production processes, and finishes that have already been developed and tested.The objective of this research was to develop a semi-disposable, economical, light-weight, comfortable thermal blanket that would be both flame-resistant and antibacterial through a limited number of laundry cycles. Targeted uses would be in medical and health care facilities, disaster relief centers, short term and emergency housing needs, recreational areas such as camping, and in military maneuvers where environmental conditions could be harmful to long-term products.

When the last U.S. Census canvassed Slab City, a remote, self-governed community of artists, retirees, anarchists and homeless people in southern California’s desert, most of its residents claimed ownership of the plots they occupied as “free and clear.” And yet Slab City itself occupies land that is public, as firm in this designation as the resolve of those who live there. Often called the “last free place,” this square-mile plot is one of the remaining Section 36 areas, which were originally reserved for the state’s public schools when each township was laid out by the National Ordinance’s land surveys that blanketed the American West in an invisible but all-encompassing grid. Consequently, the state of California hosts an array of one-square mile pockets of land. Among these, Slab City is a camp that bears the ongoing question of how land—environmentally inhospitable yet relatively hospitable in its public status—might host practices of self-determination, self-regulated community, and national identity. Veritable blind spots of land management, Section 36 areas contrast other more regulated, though comparable, practices on public and private lands. The Bureau of Land Management oversees Long Term Visitor Areas where campers can park trailers across vast territories for extended periods of time, and Walmart plays host to cross-country travelers who overnight in its parking lots—a permutation of recreational camping known as boondocking. But what happens in the absence of oversight? In places where the campsites become permanent? In times when those living there have arrived not only by choice but also in many cases out of necessity? Legacies of a country’s organizational matrix, Section 36’s pockets of land linger as residual pieces of frontier mythologies, as testaments of the arbitrariness of the grid and its land policies, and as fertile ground for alternative practices of adapting to inhospitable environments and making home in improvised communities. This essay seeks to understand how Section 36 land hosts contemporary intersections of public space and freedom.

Relationships between amounts of superphosphate applied to pasture and stocking rate on available nutrient status were assessed from 1979 to 2000 on a chromosol derived from basalt at Hamilton, Victoria. The pastures were stocked with sheep at low, medium, or high grazing pressures in factorial combination with 6 levels of superphosphate. Overall annual amounts of single superphosphate (8.8% P, 11% S, 19% Ca) applied ranged from 0.4 to 36 kg P/ha. Potassium chloride (KCl) was applied to all plots periodically. Average stocking rates ranged from 7 to 19 dry sheep equivalents (DSE)/ha. The nutrient status of plots was monitored by sampling the soil to a depth of 10 cm, avoiding the areas used by the sheep for camping. In 1994, samples of topsoil (0–5 cm and 5–10 cm) were taken from the camp areas and non-camp areas in each plot in order to assess 'plant-available' P, S, and extractable cations. Changes in P and S with depth to 80 cm in high and low grazing pressure treatments were also assessed. The influence of cumulative P applied on Olsen P varied with time and grazing pressure. During the first 12–15 years, the Olsen P of high grazing pressure plots was greater than that of low grazing pressure plots, but subsequently the reverse has been the case. Plant-available S also increased where more superphosphate had been applied. Levels were greater than 7 mg S/kg soil except at the lowest level of superphosphate, indicating that forms of P fertiliser with less S could be used here. After initial applications of KCl, this fertiliser was not applied for 8 years. During this time the K status fell from 270 to 120 mg K/kg soil, just above where plant responses to K are likely, emphasising the need to monitor the K status of productive pastures on these soils. Levels of exchangeable Mg2+ fell as more superphosphate was used, whereas levels of Ca2+ rose. The Olsen P of soil deeper than 10 cm was always less than 5 mg P/kg soil. P supply to deep-rooted pasture plants may thus be limiting when the topsoil is dry. These results, together with published assessments of animal production at this site, show that for pastures fertilised annually, the Olsen P associated with the most profit varied from 7 mg P/kg soil at 7 ewes/ha (10.5 DSE/ha), to 14 mg P/kg soil at 18 ewes/ha.

There were performed test and development review concerning disinfection procedures in a climate of the Arctic and Extreme North, an assessment of their sophistication, and determination of possible ways to enhancement of efficiency. It was found that long-term low temperatures, geographical distance and hard-to-reach territories, weak natural self-regeneration mechanism of biocenosis, development of human hypersensitivity to infectious agents, congestion of personnel at camping and operation places define the urgency of creation of modern chemical and technical disinfectants which are effective in the north. The basic requirements to these disinfectants were formulated. Thus, process chemical solutions should not become frozen over a period that biocide effect takes; disinfectants to use in human presence should meet the operational criteria for sealable inhabited objects. Engineering tools should be equipped with productive snowmelters, heat-insulated rooms, all-terrain running gear, liquid fuel -powered cauldrons, heaters, electric power station. Promising directions of new disinfectants advancing and development were determined. It’s necessary to study infectious and parasitic morbidity in the Arctic and Extreme North, the causes and conditions governing its structure and dynamics, specificity of epidemic process. The establishment of special climate chambers with variable capacities for materials and goods disinfection mode development, including the use of engineering tools; it is essential to choose or develop the study methods of arctic climatic factors influence on test microorganisms, operating procedure behavior of disinfection, worked objects’ properties. The studies of microbial contamination specifics seemed perspective, both in the environment and within inhabited objects, under long-term exposure of low temperatures; the search of biocidic technologies and factors for making disinfectants, modes and methods of application; substantiation of disinfection procedures tactics. Instructional and methodological base preparing will allow to perform perspective studies and disinfection procedures in a climate of the Arctic and Extreme North in accordance with contemporary requirements.

Changes in soil pH from a long-term experiment at Hamilton, Vic., associated with time, fertiliser application, and stocking rate were assessed. The pH was measured in a 1 :5 suspension of soil in water (pHW) from 1980 onwards and in a 1:5 suspension of soil in 0.01 M CaCl2 (pHCa) from 1984 onwards. Topsoils (0–10 cm) were sampled regularly from 1980 to 1999, and the soil profile to a depth of 80 cm in 1994. The site was sown to perennial ryegrass, phalaris, and subterranean clover in 1977. Treatments fertilised with different amounts of superphosphate were grazed by sheep at stocking rates of 7–19 dry sheep equivalents (DSE)/ha. Average applications of phosphorus (P) ranged from 0.5 to 38.7 kg P/ha.year. The pHCa of the topsoil in 1984 was 4.9. It decreased at an average rate of 0.005 pHCa or 0.008 pHW units/year, with little variation due to fertiliser or stocking rate. Measurements in 1994 revealed subtle but statistically significant (P < 0.01) trends in soil pHCa that were associated with grazing pressure, inputs of fertiliser, and whether or not areas sampled were used by the sheep for camping. The top 0–5 cm of soil was slightly less acidic (+0.07 pHCa units) in the camp areas compared with non-camp areas. Below 5 cm to a depth of 80 cm, camp areas were more acidic (–0.19 pHCa units). At the highest stocking rates, heavier applications of superphosphate were associated with greater subsoil acidity: –0.06 pHCa units per 100 kg phosphorus (P) applied. There was no relationship at medium stocking rates. At low stocking rates, higher P applications were associated with more alkaline subsoils. Net removal of product from 1979 to 1994 (wool and meat removed from plots and excreta transferred to camps) was estimated to be equivalent to 140–380 kg/ha of lime over this 15-year period. The organic carbon (OC) content of the topsoil did not change over 20 years of records from 1979, and was unaffected by inputs of P. In 1994, the OC content of the 0–5 cm layer of topsoil was greater than the 5–10 cm layer (mean values 5.5% and 3.8% respectively; P < 0.001). The OC content of camp areas was higher than that of non-camp areas, this difference being more pronounced in the 0–5 cm layer (P < 0.01). It was concluded that the rate of change of pH was slow because of the high pH buffering capacity of the soil, the small amount of alkalinity removed in product, and the generally high perennial grass content of the pastures. Soils shown to be at greatest risk of acidification from this study were those under camp areas, and where high fertiliser rates were applied to pastures with a low perennial grass content. Rotational grazing should diminish these problems by reducing the concentration of excreta in camp areas, and favouring perennials over annuals in both camp and non-camp areas. Inputs of lime may eventually be needed to compensate for the acidifying effect of product removal.

Monitoring and management of grazing livestock production systems can be enhanced with remote monitoring technologies collecting information with high temporal and spatial detail. However, the potential benefits of such technologies have yet to be realised and challenges still exist with hardware, and data analysis and interpretation. The objective of this paper was to propose analytical methods and demonstrate the value of remotely collected liveweight (LW) and behaviour of beef cattle grazing tropical pastures. Three remote weighing systems were set up at the water troughs to capture LW of three groups of 20 animals for 341 days. LW data reflected short-term effects following the first rain event (>50 mm) at the end of the dry season, which resulted in LW losses of 22 ± 8.8 kg of LW at a rate of –1.54 ± 0.46 kg/day (n = 60). This period was followed by a peak daily LW change (LWC) of +2 kg/day. The remote weighing system also captured longer environmental effects related to seasonal changes in forage quality and quantity with highest LWC during the wet season and weight loss during the dry season. Effects of management on LW and LWC were observed as a result of moving animals to paddocks with more edible forage during the dry season when the negative trend in LWC was reversed after rotating animals. Behavioural monitoring indicated that resting and ruminating took place at camping sites, and foraging resulted in grazing hotspots. Remotely collected LW data captured both short- and long-term temporal changes associated with environmental and management factors, whereas remote monitoring collars captured the spatial distribution of behaviours in the landscape. Wireless sensor networks have the ability to provide data with sufficient detail in real-time making it possible for increased understanding of animal biology and early management interventions that should result in increased production, animal welfare and environmental stewardship.

The Kuro-dake Campsite in Daisetsuzan National Park is situated in a fragile alpine setting. Since it opened in 1992, it has not been under formal management. With camping increasingly affecting the Kuro-dake Campsite, this study aims to gain deeper insights into the soil erosion and overcrowding at the campsite and to suggest a corresponding strategy for future management. A detailed topographic map was created using pole photogrammetry to understand the ground surface condition of the campsite in 2017. Aerial photographs taken in 2012 and 2017 were used to understand the long-term changes in the ground surface. Furthermore, questionnaire surveys with campers, interview surveys with organizations related to the park management and secondary data collection were conducted. Two gullies were identified on the topographic map of the campsite. From 2012 to 2017, the campsite size increased by 48 m2. The daily-use level on busy days is nearly seven times the mean daily-use level for the year. Some campers illegally pitch tents on nearby trails on such busy days. The questionnaire surveys in 2017 and 2018 (n = 346) show that most respondents oppose a future closure of the campsite and two-thirds oppose a use limit. The 2018 survey (n = 210) shows that 71% of respondents were not aware of the reservation system in national parks elsewhere; however, 76% agreed to a reservation system to secure their tent space. Introducing formal management oversight, along with a reservation system, is urgently needed.

Over the past few decades, the development of coastal areas has become an increasingly contested arena. For many years, tourism in remote coastal areas has been the preserve of a few intrepid campers, surfers and recreational fishers. More recently, however, numbers along parts of the coast have increased rapidly, not only contributing to an expansion of camping activity, but also pressure for more commercially oriented tourism. This has contributed to concerns about the environmental sustainability of tourism in remote coastal areas. Governments have increasingly been faced with the challenge of balancing ecological concerns with the pursuit of economic development. Adding to the complexity are the differing needs and demands of various segments of the tourism market all looking to enjoy particular places. Balancing the demands of campers, backpackers, package tourists and others in a single place is often wrought with conflict. This study explores some of these issues in a remote coastal area in Western Australia. The Ningaloo coast has evolved from a difficult to reach destination used by a small number of campers, to one of Western Australia's most popular tourist destinations in just two decades. The thesis examines the factors underlying the growth and change of tourism in the region, tracing its evolution from a few small rudimentary campsites to proposals for large scale resort developments. Of particular interest to this thesis is how planning and policy processes aim to address developmental pressures and resource use/planning conflicts. Additionally, this study provides an insight into the issues facing the informal, long term camper as the traditional segment of Ningaloo's tourism market. It examines how current planning and policy for the Ningaloo coastline affects this group by reshaping traditional tourism use of the area.

Arid regions, that have a terrestrial share of 30 %, heavily rely on groundwater for do-mestic, industrial and irrigation purposes. The reliance on groundwater has partly turned into a dependency in areas where the increasing population number and the expansion of irrigated agricultural areas demand more groundwater than is naturally replenished. Yet, spatial and temporal information on groundwater are often scarce induced by the facts that groundwater is given a low priority in many national budgets and numerous (semi-) arid regions in the world encompass large and inaccessible areas. Hence, there is an urgent need to provide low-cost alternatives that in parallel cover large spatial and temporal scales to gain information on the groundwater system. Remote sensing holds a tremendous potential to represent this alternative. The main objective of this thesis is the improvement of existing and the development of novel remote sensing applications to infer information on the scarce but indispensable resource groundwater at the example of the Dead Sea. The background of these de-velopments relies mainly on freely available satellite data sets. I investigate 1) the pos-sibility to infer potential groundwater flow-paths from digital elevation models, 2) the applicability of multi-temporal thermal satellite data to identify groundwater discharge locations, 3) the suitability of multi-temporal thermal satellite data to derive information on the long-term groundwater discharge behaviour, and 4) the differences of thermal data in terms of groundwater discharge between coarse-scaled satellite data and fine-scaled airborne data including a discharge quantification approach. 1) I develop a transparent, reproducible and objective semi-automatic approach us-ing a combined linear filtering and object based classification approach that bases on a medium resolution (30 m ground sampling distance) digital elevation model to extract lineaments. I demonstrate that the obtained lineaments have both, a hydrogeological and groundwater significance, that allow the derivation of potential groundwater flow-paths. These flow-paths match results of existing groundwater flow models remarkably well that validate the findings and shows the possibility to infer potential groundwater flow-paths from remote sensing data. 2) Thermal satellite data enable to identify groundwater discharge into open water bodies given a temperature contrast between groundwater and water body. Integrating a series of thermal data from different periods into a multi-temporal analysis accounts for the groundwater discharge intermittency and hence allows obtaining a representa-tive discharge picture. I analyse the constraints that arise with the multi-temporal anal-ysis (2000-2002) and show that ephemeral surface-runoff causes similar thermal anomalies as groundwater. To exclude surface-runoff influenced data I develop an au-tonomously operating method that facilitates the identification. I calculate on the re-maining surface-runoff uninfluenced data series different statistical measures on a per pixel basis to amplify groundwater discharge induced thermal anomalies. The results reveal that the range and standard deviation of the data series perform best in terms of anomaly amplification and spatial correspondence to in-situ determined spring dis-charge locations. I conclude on the reason that both mirror temperature variability that is stabilized and therefore smaller at areas where spatio-temporal constant groundwater discharge occurs. 3) The application of the before developed method on a thermal satellite data set spanning the years 2000 to 2011 enables to localise specific groundwater discharge sites and to semi-quantitatively analyse the temporal variability of the thermal anomalies (termed groundwater affected area - GAA). I identify 37 groundwater discharge sites along the entire Dead Sea coastline that refine the so far coarsely given spring areas to specific locations. All spatially match independent in-situ groundwater discharge observations and additionally indicate 15 so far unreported discharge sites. Comparing the variability of the GAA extents over time to recharge behaviour reveals analogous curve progressions with a time-shift of two years. This observation suggests that the thermally identified GAAs directly display the before only assumed groundwater discharge volume. This finding provides a serious alternative to monitor groundwater discharge over large temporal and spatial scales that is relevant for different scientific communities. From the results I furthermore conclude to observe the before only assumed and modelled groundwater discharge share from flushing of old brines during periods with an above average Dead Sea level drop. This observation implies the need to not only consider discharge from known terrestrial and submarine springs, but also from flushing of old-brines in order to calculate the total Dead Sea water budget. 4) I present a complementary airborne thermal data set recorded in 01/2011 over the north-western part of the Dead Sea coast. The higher spatial resolution allows to refine the satellite-based GAA to 72 specific groundwater discharge sites and even to specify the so far unknown abundance of submarine springs to six sites with a share of <10 % to the total groundwater discharge. A larger contribution stems from newly iden-tified seeping spring type (24 sites) where groundwater emerges diffusively either ter-restrial or submarine close to the land/water interface with a higher share to the total discharge than submarine springs provide. The major groundwater contribution origi-nates from the 42 identified terrestrial springs. For this spring type, I demonstrate that 93 % of the discharge volume can be modelled with a linear ordinary least square re-gression (R2=0.88) based on the thermal plume extents and in-situ measured discharge volumes from the Israel Hydrological Service. This result implies the possibility to determine discharge volumes at unmonitored sites along the Dead Sea coast as well that can provide a complete physically-based picture of groundwater discharge magni-tude to the Dead Sea for the first time.

La tesi tratta una panoramica del campo innovativo del Deep Learning, analizzandone i principali campi di applicazione (Computer Vision e Natural Language Processing) per poi approfondirne nei dettagli più tecnici le reti neurali utilizzate. Si inizia la trattazione di questi modelli con le reti convoluzionali e le LSTM per poi descrivere strutture più elaborate e recenti che sono identificate come stato dell'arte di alcuni task fondamentali dell'intelligenza artificiale. Si è cercato di fornire in questo modo una visione più ampia delle tipologie di reti esistenti, evidenziando un’analisi contrapposta di reti feed-forward e reti ricorrenti, ponendo al lettore uno spunto di riflessione scaturito dalla dualità di queste due branche dell’apprendimento automatico, diverse nell’approccio, ma con il medesimo successo in ambito scientifico per la risoluzione di problemi che agevolano le nostre vite. Viene conclusa l’argomentazione con un piccolo sguardo al futuro che ci aspetta e che prepotentemente influirà sul modo di approcciarci e vivere il mondo come lo conosciamo oggi.

Impulsionado pela mecânica de leilões de energia, o aproveitamento energético de recursos eólicos no Brasil atravessa um momento de expansão em participação na matriz de energia elétrica nacional. Não obstante, o desempenho da geração dos parques eólicos que estão em operação foi monitorado e apresentou, em média, resultados aquém daquilo que fora confiado ao Sistema Interligado Nacional, revelando que as estimativas de geração projetadas e declaradas por alguns dos projetos vencedores dos processos licitatórios podem ter sido supervalorizadas. Tal cenário provocou a exigência de medidas mais conservadoras para participação nos leilões de energia, como a já vigente adoção do P90 no cálculo da Garantia Física e o aumento da duração da campanha de medição anemométrica, a entrar em rigor a partir de 2017. Sendo o vento uma variável estocástica, existem incertezas intrínsecas à Avaliação de Recursos Eólicos que influenciam no processo de estimação da geração por um parque eólico e que devem, desta forma, ser identificadas, quantificadas e reduzidas, na medida do possível. Nesse sentido, este trabalho estuda a influência da duração da campanha de medição anemométrica na Avaliação de Recursos Eólicos com base na aplicação do método MCP ferramenta imprescindível no processo de caracterização do regime eólico no longo prazo com vistas para aprimorar a exatidão das previsões de geração pela fonte eólica. Para tanto, foram utilizadas quatro bases de dados contendo séries temporais de velocidade e direção do vento referentes a uma região de interesse. Inicialmente, nove diferentes métodos MCP foram testados e comparados, sendo que o método Vertical Slice aplicado com auxílio do software Windographer destacou-se dos demais e mostrou-se mais aderente aos dados utilizados conforme as métricas de Erro Absoluto Médio e Raiz Quadrada do Erro Quadrático Médio. Posteriormente, as bases de dados foram configuradas para simular campanhas de medição anemométricas com durações que variavam de 2 a 6 anos, de modo a avaliar o comportamento da incerteza relativa à caracterização histórica de recursos eólicos e analisar em que medida esta incerteza impacta no cálculo da estimativa de geração de eletricidade por um conjunto de aerogeradores hipoteticamente dispostos naquele local de interesse. Foi possível verificar que, para os dados e casos analisados, à medida que se aumentou a duração da campanha de medição anemométrica, a incerteza da caracterização histórica de recursos eólicos sofreu queda significativa; determinando, por conseguinte, redução da incerteza total que permeia a geração eólica. Ademais, a quantidade de energia estimada para o parque eólico hipotético exemplificado também decresceu, permitindo melhora na acurácia da previsão de geração e beneficiando a confiabilidade da fonte eólica no sistema elétrico brasileiro.
Driven by the energy auctions system, the energetic harnessing of wind resource in Brazil is now going through a phase of expansion in participation in the national electric energy mix. Nevertheless, the performance of power generation of in-operation wind farms was monitored and the results proved to be, on average, below what was initially entrusted to the National Grid System, indicating that the energy production estimations projected by some energy auctions winners could have been overestimated. This scenario has caused the requirements for participating in the energy auctions to be more conservative, with measures such as the adoption of the P90 on the calculation of the physical guarantee and the increase of the wind measurement campaigns time span the latter to be enforced as of 2017. The wind is a stochastic resource, hence there are uncertainties intrinsic to the Wind Resource Assessment that influence a wind farms power generation estimation and that need to be properly identified, quantified and reduced, as far as possible. In this respect, the influence of a wind measurement campaigns time span on the Wind Resource Assessment based on MCP methods an important tool in the process of characterizing the long-term wind regime was studied in order to detect the potential of enhancing the accuracy of wind power generation forecasts. For this purpose, four databases containing time series of wind speed and direction belonging to a target site were used. Firstly, nine different MCP methods were tested and compared, of which the Vertical Slice method implemented on the software Windographer outperformed all the others according to the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error metrics. Subsequently, the databases were set to simulate campaigns with time spans varying from 2 to 6 years, in such a way to evaluate the behavior of the uncertainty in the long-term wind speed and to analyze how this uncertainty impacts the calculation of the energy production estimation of an array of wind turbines hypothetically placed on that target site. From the analyzed data and cases, it was verified that, as the wind measurement campaigns time span was increased, the uncertainty in the long-term wind speed was significantly diminished, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty that pervades the wind power harnessing. Furthermore, the energy production estimation of the exemplified hypothetical wind farm also decreased, allowing an improvement on the accuracy of the energy generation prediction and benefiting the reliability of wind power in the Brazilian electric system.

碩士
國防管理學院
資源管理研究所
93
This study assessing the long-term impact of a consistent advertising (high、low )campaign and headline (long、short)on consumer memory and brand association. According to Kathryn. Braun and Michael(2004)a consistent long-term advertising campaign is an effective way to present a solid enduring image to consumers and maintain a long-term relationship. This study consistent to include corporation image、product quality image、celebrity、headline . The long or short headline on reader memory and brand association. This study employs 2*2 factorial design and then uses ANOVA as analytic tools. The results of statistic analysis are as follows: 1. The higher of a consistent advertising, the higher consumer advertising cognition. 2. The higher of a consistent advertising, the higher consumer brand association.

AbstractBiomass Burning (BB) aerosol has attracted considerable attention due to its detrimental effects on climate through its radiative properties. In Africa, fire patterns are anticorrelated with the southward-northward movement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Each year between June and September, BB occurs in the southern hemisphere of Africa, and aerosols are carried westward by the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and advected at an altitude of between 2 and 4 km. Observations made during a field campaign of Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) (Knippertz et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:1451–1460, 2015) during the West African Monsoon (WAM) of June–July 2016 have revealed large quantities of BB aerosols in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) over southern West Africa (SWA).This chapter examines the effects of the long-range transport of BB aerosols on the climate over SWA by means of a modeling study, and proposes several adaptation and mitigation strategies for policy makers regarding this phenomenon. A high-resolution regional climate model, known as the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling – Aerosols and Reactive Traces (COSMO-ART) gases, was used to conduct two set of experiments, with and without BB emissions, to quantify their impacts on the SWA atmosphere. Results revealed a reduction in surface shortwave (SW) radiation of up to about 6.5 W m−2 and an 11% increase of Cloud Droplets Number Concentration (CDNC) over the SWA domain. Also, an increase of 12.45% in Particulate Matter (PM25) surface concentration was observed in Abidjan (9.75 μg m−3), Accra (10.7 μg m−3), Cotonou (10.7 μg m−3), and Lagos (8 μg m−3), while the carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio increased by 90 ppb in Abidjan and Accra due to BB. Moreover, BB aerosols were found to contribute to a 70% increase of organic carbon (OC) below 1 km in the PBL, followed by black carbon (BC) with 24.5%. This work highlights the contribution of the long-range transport of BB pollutants to pollution levels in SWA and their effects on the climate. It focuses on a case study of 3 days (5–7 July 2016). However, more research on a longer time period is necessary to inform decision making properly.This study emphasizes the need to implement a long-term air quality monitoring system in SWA as a method of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The British government welcomed Vice President George HW Bush’s election in 1988 and, predictably, his policy towards Northern Ireland remained consistent throughout his single term in office. In local politics, however, much was made of the situation in Northern Ireland, most notable in the office of the Mayor of New York City. There, Ed Koch and David Dinkins both took an interest in Northern Ireland with the latter heavily involved in the campaign to extradite Joe Doherty, an IRA member who had been convicted of killing a British Army officer, from New York to Northern Ireland. The Doherty case had led to the signing of a new extradition agreement between the US and UK but still Doherty resisted his removal. The chapter also examines the 1992 Presidential Election with particular focus on the Democratic Primary campaign which saw former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton’s interest in Northern Ireland develop over a series of weeks and months before he pledged to involve the US Government, if elected, in ways never before seen.

Fruits and vegetables are important parts of healthy eating and they provide excellent sources of vitamins, minerals, and dietary fiber in our diet. Those who consume fruits and vegetables regularly have a reduced risk of many chronic diseases. According to the WHO, inadequate consumption of fruits and vegetables may have contributed to as much as 14% of gastrointestinal cancer deaths and 11% of deaths resulted from ischemic heart disease worldwide. Since 2011, Hong Kong has been promoting a “2 Plus 3 a day” diet campaign aiming to raise the general public's awareness on consuming a minimum of 2 portions of fruits and 3 portions of vegetables a day. However, recent statistics showed that nearly 81% of people aged 18 – 64 failed to meet this requirement. This paper focuses on investigating the determinants of fruits and vegetables consumption behavior among university students in Hong Kong.

This chapter describes a campaign to raise the minimum wage for hotel workers in Long Beach, California, exploring the deft use of the social change matrix to address income inequality in a way that was adapted to local conditions. The Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economy (LAANE) studied the tourism industry in Long Beach and highlighted both the role of tax breaks for this industry in the community as well as the low wages paid to workers in it. Teaming up with a local chapter of UNITE HERE Local 11—the union that represents workers in the hotel, food service, and gaming industries—LAANE began to advocate for higher wages for employees in hotels in Long Beach. The UNITE HERE–LAANE partnership did not do much in terms of social media to promote its message, although it had a Facebook page and used Twitter and other channels. Instead, it used the mails and, most important, the face-to-face, door-to-door canvassing to get its message out.

China’s responses in the past decade has been seen in the West as an attempt to jump on the bandwagon to justify Beijing’s long-term religious, cultural, political suppression of the Uighur community, both internationally and domestically. Uighur activists and human rights advocates have long decried the liberal use of the term “terrorist” by the Chinese authorities as well as their tendency to conflate ethnic, religious and violent activities. On the other hand, China has often criticized Western approaches to counter-terrorism and attempted to promote its own measures as a better alternative. This paper seeks to address the questions raised by such developments on China’s definition of terrorism and how China’s resistance/criticism of the US-led counter-terrorism campaign reshapes the domestic conceptualization of terrorism and the subsequent implementation of counter-measures.

The cancellation of the Yucca Mountain repository program in the Unites States raises the prospect of very long-term storage (i.e., >120 years) and deferred transportation of used fuel at the nuclear power plant sites. While long-term storage of used nuclear fuel in dry cask storage systems (DCSSs) at Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations (ISFSIs) is already a standard practice among U.S. utilities, recent rule-making activities of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) indicated additional flexibility for the NRC licensees of ISFSIs and certificate holders of the DCSSs to request initial and renewal terms for up to 40 years. The proposed rule also adds a requirement that renewal applicants must provide descriptions of aging management programs (AMPs) and time-limited aging analyses (TLAAs) to ensure that the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that are important to safety in the DCSSs will perform as designed under the extended license terms. This paper examines issues related to managing aging effects on DCSSs for very long-term storage (VLTS) of used fuels, capitalizing on the extensive knowledge and experience accumulated from the work on aging research and life cycle management at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) over the last 30 years. The technical basis for acceptable AMPs and TLAAs is described, as are generic AMPs and TLAAs that are being developed by Argonne under the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Used Fuel Disposition Campaign for R&D on extended long-term storage and transportation.

In the design of land-based or offshore wind turbines for ultimate limit states, long-term loads associated with return periods on the order of the service life (20 years, usually) must be estimated. This requires statistical extrapolation from turbine loads data that may be obtained by simulation or by field tests. The present study illustrates such extrapolation that uses field data from the Blyth offshore wind farm in the United Kingdom, where a 2MW wind turbine was instrumented, and environment and loads data were recorded. From this measurement campaign, the loads data available are in two different formats: as ten-minute statistics (referred to as “summary” data) and as full time series (referred to as “campaign” data). The characteristics of the site and environment and, hence, of the turbine response as well are strikingly different for wind regimes associated with onshore winds (winds from sea to land) and offshore winds (those from land to sea). The loads data (here, only the mudline bending moment is studied) at the Blyth site are hence separated depending on wind regime. By integrating load distributions conditional on the environment with the relative likelihood of the different environmental conditions, long-term loads associated with specified return periods can be derived. This is achieved here using the peak-over-threshold method based on campaign data but derived long-term loads are compared with similar estimates based on the summary data. Offshore winds are seen to govern the long-term loads at the site. Though the influence of wave heights on turbine long-term loads is smaller than that of wind speed, there is possible resonance of tower dynamics induced by the waves; still, to first order, it is largely the wind speed and turbulence intensity that control the design loads. Predicted design loads based on the campaign data are close to those based on the summary data discussed in a separate study.

Guided Wave (GW) testing is regularly used for finding defect locations through long range screening using low-frequency waves (from 5 to 250 kHz) [1]-[3]. Magnetostrictive sensors can overcome some issues, which usually limit the application to Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) [4], like for example, high temperatures [5]-[6], high wall thickness of components in the primary circuit, and characteristic defect typologies. The authors have already shown the basic theoretical background, some simulations and some first experimental results concerning a real steel pipe, used for steam discharge, having a complex structure. Collecting more experimental data with a novel test campaign on the same pipe its complex structure results as a useful benchmark for the application of GWs as Non Destructive Techniques (NDT). Experimental measures using a symmetrical probe and a local probe in different configurations (pulse-echo and pitch-catch) indicate that GW testing with magnetostrictive sensors can be reliably applied to long-term monitoring of NPP components.

As part of Oxfam’s Strategic Partnership project ‘Towards a Worldwide Influencing Network’, the graphic story Zahra: A policewoman in Afghanistan was developed by Jorrit Kamminga, Cristina Durán and Miguel Ángel Giner Bou. The project is funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. The graphic story is part of a long-standing Oxfam campaign that supports the inclusion and meaningful participation of women in the Afghan police. The story portrays the struggles of a young woman from a rural village who wants to become a police officer. While a fictional character, Zahra’s story represents the aspirations and dreams of many young Afghan women who are increasingly standing up for their rights and equal opportunities, but who are still facing structural societal and institutional barriers. For young women like Zahra, there are still few role models and male champions to support their cause. Yet, as Oxfam’s project has shown, their number is growing, which contributes to small shifts in behaviour and perceptions, gradually normalizing women’s presence in the police force. If a critical mass of women within the police force can be reached and their participation increasingly becomes meaningful, this can reduce the societal and institutional resistance over time. Oxfam hopes the fictional character of Zahra can contribute to that in terms of awareness raising and the promotion of women’s participation in the police force. The story is also available on the #IMatter website.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.