Academic literature on the topic 'Local multiplier effect'

In the process of urbanization in developing countries, creating enough jobs to realize the transition from an agricultural population to a non-agricultural population is a major goal of development. The differences and localities of cities need to be considered in the policymaking process. This study estimated the local employment multipliers of expanding cities in China and calculated the employment multiplier of each city. First, there are obvious differences in the size of employment multipliers across cities; therefore, it is necessary to adopt different policies in employment promotion. Second, an inverted-U-shape relationship is detected between employment multiplier and city size, namely the larger the city, the greater the employment multiplier, but when the city size exceeds a certain value, the employment multiplier begins to decline. Third, different degrees of influence are generated by factors for cities at different levels of economic development. Based on the research results, we suggest that expansion of the trade sector be promoted in small- and medium-sized cities, to give full play to its employment multiplier effect; meanwhile, in large cities, the degree of specialization of the trade sector and diversification of the non-trade sector should be improved.

Purpose of the Study: Tourism stakeholders and academics have begun to question the benefits of developing tourism in rural areas. This study aims to identify tourists, tourism entrepreneurs, and employees' characteristics and measure the multiplier effect for local communities in Nglanggeran tourist village, Yogyakarta. Specifically, this study measures income generation (direct, indirect, and induced), employment generation, and the multiplier effect of both. Methodology: This research uses a descriptive quantitative approach. Primary data collection was carried out by the non-participant observation method (for four months). While the technique of determining the sample size (100 tourists, 51 entrepreneurs, and 62 employee respondents) used is non-probability sampling, referring to the Slovin formula with a margin of error of 10%. Main Findings: This study found that local entrepreneurs can be categorized as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Data analysis results show that tourism village had an important economic impact for local communities with a Keynesian income multiplier effect value of 2.57, 1.74 for the Income multiplier type I ratio, and 2.23 for the type II. While the employment multiplier value is 0.0000041. Implication/Applications: This study's results can answer doubts about the economic benefits received by local communities from the development of the Tourism Village. The originality of the study: This study is the latest research, especially considering the implementation of the multiplier effect formula on a small scale. However, this study has some limitations, such as the sample area used (Desa Wisata Nglanggeran) and the context of the tourism impacts studied. Further research is expected to reach other tourist villages and expand its studies to environmental and socio-culture issues.

The study is aimed at discussing the investment multiplier effect expands tourism destinations. The main problem is how can multiplier investments in the tourism sector minimize unemployment in Junjungan Village, Ubud, Bali. The results of the analysis and discussion show that the existence of investments influences many of the social and economic life of the community, because there are so many benefits or benefits obtained by both the Gianyar government and the local community as an integral part of the tourism business on the island, both in the form of tax and assistance provided to local communities to improve the quality of life and also training in the human resources. The more investment in this village, it is expected to be able to open as wide employment opportunities as possible. Therefore, unemployment is minimized and public income is expected to continue increasing.

Tourism sector has long been referred to as economic sector. It is believed that tourism is one of the factors causing multiplier effect that result in welfare on one side and community empowerement on another side. In order to realize the multiplier, effect all stakeholders should work in a synergy to develop tourism-based local economics. The article described how bottom-up approach, empowerement and local wisdom had given positive contribution towards tourism sector in Gua Pindul and at the same time improved the local economics.

Tourism sector has long been referred to as economic sector. It is believed that tourism is one of the factors causing multiplier effect that result in welfare on one side and community empowerement on another side. In order to realize the multiplier, effect all stakeholders should work in a synergy to develop tourism-based local economics. The article described how bottom-up approach, empowerement and local wisdom had given positive contribution towards tourism sector in Gua Pindul and at the same time improved the local economics.

Suwuk Beach is one of the leading coastal tourism destinations in Kebumen Regency. In 2018 Suwuk beach is still an attractive destination for tourists with 287,085 tourists. This can bring economic benefits to the people in the Suwuk coastal area. To determine the impact of the economy, the researchers used a multiplier effect formula. The results found in this study are the multipliyer's effect on type I and II, namely Multiplier Effect 2.44, Keynesian Local Income Multiplier 1.2 and Ratio Income Multiplier of 1.6 so that tourism activities have an economic impact on people's income.

Use of local resources as a replace for resources brought from outside the region impacts the spatial allocation of value-added chains and causes spatial economic effects. Region benefits from multiplier economic effect caused by extra production volumes added within the region. Effects for national economy could be controversial if the replacing production is less efficient. The article considers the case of cement-bonded wood fiber construction blocks to be produced in the Republic of Karelia, Russia. Economic multiplier regional effects are assessed applying social accounting matrix approach.

Abstract A series of discontinuities in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil allow us to identify the causal effect of public spending on local labour markets, using a “fuzzy” Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8,000 US dollars per year and a local income multiplier around two. The effect comes mostly from employment in services and is more pronounced among less financially developed municipalities.

This study aims to identify the types of economic activity, characteristics and perceptions of visitors, business actors, labor towards culinary businesses and to determine the multiplier effect and sustainable development strategies for culinary businesses on the economic growth of local communities. This research was conducted from November 2020 to January 2021 at the Beba Fish Landing Base, Galesong Utara, Takalar Regency. This research uses simple random sapling technique. The data of this study consisted of primary data and secondary data. Data collection was carried out using questionnaires and field observations then analyzed descriptively and multiple impact analysis (Multiplier Effect) then analyzed using a SWOT analyst. Based on the research results, there are two types of economic activities in PPI Beba, namely, fishery activities and supporting activities (culinary business) of food made from fish as the main ingredient. In general, visitors who come to PPI Beba are aged between 45 years and over with the majority of jobs being civil servants with 51% of the total visitors as a whole the rest are entrepreneurs. While the majority of business actors are women in the age range of 40 - 50 years and over. Meanwhile, 81.8% of the culinary business workforce are women with the highest level of education in Elementary Schools. In general, the three recipes gave an assessment of the PPI Beba condition which was far from good. is the main business. The characteristics of the workforce are 74.3% female and 25.7% male, with the status of 65.7% being married and ages ranging from 28 - 45 years. And in general, visitors have a perception or give a moderate to good assessment of the accessibility to PPI Beba. Culinary efforts at PPI Beba have a real economic impact on the local community. The economic impacts arising from these activities are direct impacts, indirect impacts, and induce impacts as measured by the multiplier effect value, where the results of this study obtained a multiplier effect value of 2.15 for the Keynesian Income Multiplier; 1.10 for the income multiplier type I ratio, and 1.14 for the income multiplier type II ratio. This shows that the culinary business at PPI Beba can be developed into culinary tourism to see the opportunities that exist.

We present an algorithm for imputation of incomplete datasets based on Bayesian exchangeability through Pólya sampling. Each (donee) unit with a missing value is imputed multiple times by observed (real) values on units from a donor pool. The donor pools are constructed using auxiliary variables. Several features from kernel estimation are used to counteract unbalances that are due to sparse and bounded data. Three balancing features can be used with only one single continuous auxiliary variable, but an additional fourth feature need, multiple continuous auxiliary variables. They mainly contribute by reducing nonresponse bias. We examine how the donor pool size should be determined, that is the number of potential donors within the pool. External information is shown to be easily incorporated in the imputation algorithm. Our simulation studies show that with a study variable which can be seen as a function of one or two continuous auxiliaries plus residual noise, the method performs as well or almost as well as competing methods when the function is linear, but usually much better when the function is nonlinear.

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: In press. Paper 3: Submitted. Paper 4: Submitted.

Ce travail concerne l'utilisation de la technique de Fracturation Hydraulique (FH) pour exploiter l'énergie géothermique des réservoirs profonds de roches sèches chaudes (HDR). La fracturation hydraulique est réalisée par injection de fluides géothermiques dans des réservoirs partiellement fracturés de faible perméabilité. Les fluides à haute pression sont destinés à faire évoluer les fissures et leur connectivité. Les valeurs de débit/pression auxquelles les fluides géothermiques doivent être pompés, ainsi que le calendrier de pompage pour initier la fracturation hydraulique, dépendent principalement des conditions géostatiques existantes (contraintes géostatiques, pression fluide et température initiales de l'HDR) ainsi que des propriétés des fissures de l'HDR (longueur, épaisseur, densité et distribution directionnelle initiales moyennes de fissures). Tous ces éléments, en sus de leurs effets sur la stabilité des forages, sont analysés dans cette recherche. Des modèles de fracturation, qui sont capables de suivre l'évolution des fissures dans toutes les orientations spatiales possibles, sont utilisés pour obtenir le tenseur anisotrope de perméabilité. Ces modèles sont intégrés dans un code domestique d'éléments finis qui est développé pour résoudre des problèmes aux limites thermo-poroélastiques. Pour supprimer/diminuer les oscillations qui accompagnent les solutions paraboliques et/ou hyperboliques lors de la convection forcée, plusieurs techniques de stabilisation ont dû être implémentées
The application of the Hydraulic Fracturing (HF) technology to exploit geothermal energy from Hot Dry Rocks (HDR) reservoirs is addressed. HF is achieved by extensively pumping geothermal fluids to already existing fractured HDR reservoirs of low permeability. High fluid pressures are expected to drive cracks to evolve and connect. The newly created burgeoning hydraulic conduits should supposedly enhance the permeability of the existing HDR reservoirs. The flow rate/pressure values at which geothermal fluids should be pumped, as well as the pumping schedule to initiate HF, depend primarily on the existing geostatic conditions (geostatic stresses, initial HDR pressure and temperature) as well as on HDR fracture properties (initial mean fracture length, mean fracture aperture, density and orientational distribution of fractures). While these components, in addition to their effects on borehole stability, are scrutinized in this research, focus is on the evolution during circulation processes of the fracture properties. A fracturing model that is capable of tracking fracture evolution in all possible spatial orientations is used to obtain the time course of the anisotropic permeability tensor. This evolving property is integrated into a domestic finite element code which is developed to solve thermo–poroelastic BVPs: emphasis is laid on the efficiency of the doublet flow technique where a fluid gains thermal energy by circulating through the HDR reservoir from the injection well to the production well. The spurious oscillations in the hyperbolic solutions of the approximated finite element approach that are commensal with the phenomenon of forced heat convection are healed/mitigated through several stabilization approaches

Ce travail de thèse s'inscrit dans un projet de développement d'une nouvelle mémoire magnétique à accès aléatoire (MRAM) dont l'élément central est une jonction tunnel magnétique (JTM). Dans ces systèmes de couches d'épaisseur nana métrique, les interfaces jouent un rôle prépondérant pour les propriétés de transport et de couplage magnétique, nécessitant une analyse fine à l'échelle du nanomètre voire atomique. La spectroscopie de pertes d'énergie des électrons (EELS) résolue spatialement est l'outil privilégié de ce travail. L'étude de systèmes industriels fonctionnels d'ALTIS Semiconductor a pour but d'évaluer leur stabilité dans le temps et aux cours des étapes de fabrication. Elle conduit à la mise en évidence d'effets limitant leur mise en production industrielle ainsi qu'à la proposition de plusieurs solutions pour y remédier. En parallèle, afin de mieux comprendre l'importance des interfaces d'une JTM, un système monocristallin Co₀,₆Fe₀,₄ / MgO / Co₀,₆Fe₀,₄ (001) a été élaboré par épitaxie par jets moléculaires, l'alliage Co₀,₆Fe₀,₄ présentant un caractère demi-métallique en fonction des symétries des états de Bloch conduisant à d'importantes polarisations de spin. La structure cristalline aux interfaces se révélant de très haute qualité, l'échantillon peut être assimilé à un système modèle permettant une analyse détaillée des structures fines des seuils L des métaux de transition et du seuil K de l'oxygène. Ces spectres expérimentaux peuvent ainsi être simulés par des calculs de diffusion multiple afin de tester l'influence de l'environnement local et de caractériser les effets d'hybridation p-d aux interfaces
The work detailed in this thesis represents an experimental contribution to the development of a new magnetic random access memory (MRAM) in which the main element is a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ). Interfaces play a crucial role in determining the transport properties and magnetic coupling in these systems, which consist of layers having thicknesses on the order of nanometers. As such, investigation at the nanometer or even atomic scale is rnandatory. This is achieved here using spatially resolved electron energy loss spectroscopy (BELS), the dominant technique in this study. The purpose of the investigation on ALTIS Semiconductor functional industrial systems is to evaluate their stability over time as well as during the steps involved in their production. This work highlights effects restricting their industrial production and suggests solutions to counteract them. In parallel, in order to better understand the importance of the MTJ interfaces themselves, a monocrystalline Co₀,₆Fe₀,₄ / MgO / Co₀,₆Fe₀,₄ (001) system, deposited using molecular beam epitaxy, was also investigated. The Co₀,₆Fe₀,₄ alloy exhibits a half-metallic character with regards to the symmetries of the Bloch states which lead to strong spin polarization. The very high quality of the crystalline structure at the interfaces offers the possibility to consider the sample as an ideal system, allowing a detailed analysis of the fine structure of the transition metal L-edges and the oxygen K-edge. These experimental spectra can thus be simulated using multiple scattering calculations in order to test the influence of the local environment and to characterize the p-d hybridization effects at the interfaces

Local procurement by public bodies is one type of Short Food Supply Chain (SFSC), which have been argued to contribute to economic regeneration and local sustainable development. In the current UK policy environment, quantifying actual local economic gains could add much-needed weight to arguments in favour of local procurement in the NHS and other public bodies. To aid such quantification, this paper exemplifies and evaluates the use of a ¿quick and simple¿ tool called LM3, designed to measure the local economic benefit of initiatives like SFSCs. LM3 is calculated for the Cornwall Food Programme (CPF), a localised procurement initiative. The findings confirm that the CPF has a considerable impact on the local economy. Notwithstanding this conclusion, difficulties in data collection combined with inaccuracies inherent to the LM3 process created a large margin of error in the findings. Moreover, a qualitative evaluation of the CPF added a valuable understanding of the wider economic impact of the CFP. The use of an even simpler and more reliable ¿LM2¿ multiplier tool is recommended for future studies, accompanied by some qualitative evaluation to create a fuller picture of local economic impacts.

Global biodiversity losses are being driven by human actions, and coral reef communities are not immune. Local anthropogenic stress and global climate change are rapidly changing coral reefs, through coral bleaching and mortality. How these stressors impact the biodiversity and community structure of corals on tropical reefs will not only affect the communities of fish and invertebrates that rely on coral reefs, but they could have lasting impacts on ecosystem functioning. The record-breaking marine heatwave caused by the 2015/2016 El Niño was superimposed on a strong local human disturbance gradient on Kiritimati, Kiribati, allowing for the investigation of how these combined disturbances affect coral communities. In Chapter 2, I investigated how soft coral cover varies with these disturbances and natural environmental factors, using benthic photoquadrats collected on Kiritimati’s forereefs from 2007 to 2019. Additionally, I conducted a literature review to establish what is already known about soft coral and disturbances, to compare Kiritimati data to that found in the literature. I show that soft corals are grossly understudied, with only a fifth (19/94) of coral studies presenting any results of heat stress effects on soft corals, and even fewer (5%) presenting taxonomic-specific results. On Kiritimati, prior to the 2015/2016 El Niño, soft corals were more common at sheltered sites with lower net primary productivity, but no effect of local disturbance was found. Soft corals were, however, highly vulnerable to heat stress, with a documented complete loss after the heatwave. I also show that soft coral skeletons persisted for years after the heatwave and provided substrate for hard coral recruitment. In Chapter 3, I examined how local and global stressors affected coral diversity, using community composition photoquadrat data collected from 2013 to 2017, and developed a conceptual framework for understanding effects of multiple stressors, when there are both discrete and continuous stressors. Coral alpha diversity (assessed as Hill diversity) exhibited a non-linear relationship with local anthropogenic stress, peaking at intermediate levels, and was negatively impacted by the marine heatwave, such that sites tended to decrease in both coral richness and evenness. Coral beta diversity (assessed as community composition turnover) was significantly impacted by both stressors, but sites exposed to higher levels of anthropogenic stress tended to experience less turnover during the heatwave. Explicitly considering the relationships between the two stressors, I found that it varied depending on the intensity of anthropogenic stress and the diversity metric (i.e., richness vs. composition) examined. For Hill-Richness, I found a tipping point at moderate levels of local anthropogenic stress, below which there was an additive response and above which the response tended towards synergy. In contrast, for Hill-Shannon and Hill-Simpson the responses were additive and there was an antagonistic effect between stressors for community composition. By using the frameworks outlined in this thesis for reporting changes to soft coral due to disturbances, and examining relationships between discrete and continuous stressors, we may better predict how reefs will look in the future and what actions will conserve and assist in the recovery of coral reef ecosystems.
Graduate
2022-08-10

The world’s coral reefs are being impacted by myriad disturbances, from localized overfishing and nutrient pollution to global climate change-induced temperature increases and ocean acidification. Conservation of coral reefs in the face of increasing variability and uncertainty requires an understanding of the interacting effects of multiple stressors on the diverse components of these vital ecosystems. In this thesis, I use data from reefs around Kiritimati atoll (Republic of Kiribati) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean to examine the effects of a severe pulse heat stress event and local human disturbance on two important components of the coral reef ecosystem – three-dimensional (3D) structural complexity and reef fish assemblages. Using 3D reef models constructed through structure-from-motion photogrammetry, I examined changes in reef structural complexity in the year following the 2015-2016 El Niño and mass coral bleaching event. I found that exposure to prolonged thermal stress and subsequent coral mortality resulted in declines in reef structural complexity, particularly reef surface rugosity and terrain ruggedness. Baseline levels of structural complexity were also negatively influenced by local human disturbance, while complexity was positively related to the densities of branching and massive coral growth forms. These findings have important implications for the maintenance of healthy reef ecosystems, as high levels of structural complexity are important for supporting diverse reef-associated fish assemblages. Next, using underwater visual censuses of reef fish assemblages, I quantified fish abundance, biomass, species richness, and assemblage structure before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño. Total reef fish abundance, biomass, and species richness declined during the El Niño, suggesting that pulse heat stress events may have short-term, negative consequences for reef fish. Although these metrics did not vary substantially across the local human disturbance gradient, recovery of assemblages following the heat stress event was impeded by higher levels of local human disturbance. Reef fish assemblage structure was influenced by a more diverse array of factors, showing significant shifts in response to heat stress, human disturbance, and net primary productivity. Given the many important roles that fish play on coral reefs, declines such as those observed here may impair the ecological functioning of these ecosystems. Together, my results highlight the negative impacts of heat stress and local human disturbance on coral reefs, demonstrating ways in which these stressors may interact to limit reef resilience in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures.
Graduate
2019-12-07

Dans le sillage de la récession mondiale de 2008-09, plusieurs questions ont été soulevées dans la littérature économique sur les effets à court et à long terme de la politique budgétaire sur l’activité économique par rapport à son signe, sa taille et sa durée. Ceux-ci ont des implications importantes pour mieux comprendre les canaux de transmission et l’efficacité des politiques budgétaires, avec la politique monétaire étant poursuivi, ainsi que pour leurs retombées économiques. Cette thèse fait partie de ce regain d’intérêt de la littérature d’examiner comment les changements dans la politique budgétaire affectent l’activité économique. Elle repose alors sur trois essais: les effets macroéconomiques des chocs de dépenses publiques et des recettes fiscales, les résultats macroéconomiques de l’interaction entre les politiques budgétaire et monétaire et le lien entre la politique budgétaire et la répartition des revenus. Le premier chapitre examine les effets des chocs de politique budgétaire (chocs de dépenses publiques et chocs de recettes fiscales) sur l’économie canadienne au cours de la période 1970-2010, en s’appuyant sur la méthode d’identification des restrictions de signe développée par Mountford et Uhlig [2009]. En réponse à la récession mondiale, les autorités fiscales dans les économies avancées, dont le Canada ont généralement mis en oeuvre une approche en deux phases pour la politique budgétaire. Tout d’abord, ils ont introduit des plans de relance sans précédent pour relancer leurs économies. Par exemple, les mesures de relance au Canada, introduites à travers le Plan d’action économique du Canada, ont été projetées à 3.2 pour cent du PIB dans le budget fédéral de 2009 tandis que l’ "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"(ARRA) a été estimé à 7 pour cent du PIB. Par la suite, ils ont mis en place des plans d’ajustement en vue de réduire la dette publique et en assurer la soutenabilité à long terme. Dans ce contexte, évaluer les effets multiplicateurs de la politique budgétaire est important en vue d’informer sur l'efficacité de telles mesures dans la relance ou non de l'activité économique. Les résultats montrent que les multiplicateurs d'impôt varient entre 0.2 et 0.5, tandis que les multiplicateurs de dépenses varient entre 0.2 et 1.1. Les multiplicateurs des dépenses ont tendance à être plus grand que les multiplicateurs des recettes fiscales au cours des deux dernières décennies. Comme implications de politique économique, ces résultats tendent à suggérer que les ajustements budgétaires par le biais de grandes réductions de dépenses publiques pourraient être plus dommageable pour l'économie que des ajustements budgétaires par la hausse des impôts. Le deuxième chapitre, co-écrit avec Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, estime les effets multiplicateurs des dépenses publiques aux Etats-Unis en fonction du cycle de la politique monétaire. Les chocs de dépenses publiques sont identifiés comme étant des erreurs de prévision du taux de croissance des dépenses publiques à partir des données d'Enquêtes des prévisionnistes professionnels et des informations contenues dans le "Greenbook". L'état de la politique monétaire est déduite à partir de la déviation du taux des fonds fédéraux du taux cible de la Réserve Fédérale, en faisant recours à une fonction lisse de transition. L'application de la méthode des «projections locales» aux données trimestrielles américaines au cours de la période 1965-2012 suggère que les effets multiplicateurs des dépenses fédérales sont sensiblement plus élevées quand la politique monétaire est accommodante que lorsqu'elle ne l'est pas. Les résultats suggèrent aussi que les dépenses fédérales peuvent stimuler ou non la consommation privée, dépendamment du degré d’accommodation de la politique monétaire. Ce dernier résultat réconcilie ainsi, sur la base d’un cadre unifié des résultats autrement contradictoires à première vue dans la littérature. Ces résultats ont d'importantes implications de politique économique. Ils suggèrent globalement que la politique budgétaire est plus efficace lorsqu'on en a le plus besoin (par exemple, lorsque le taux de chômage est élevé), si elle est soutenue par la politique monétaire. Ils ont également des implications pour la normalisation des conditions monétaires dans les pays avancés: la sortie des politiques monétaires non-conventionnelles conduirait à des multiplicateurs de dépenses fédérales beaucoup plus faibles qu'autrement, même si le niveau de chômage restait élevé. Ceci renforce la nécessité d'une calibration prudente du calendrier de sortie des politiques monétaires non-conventionnelles. Le troisième chapitre examine l'impact des mesures d'expansion et de contraction budgétaire sur la distribution des revenus dans un panel de 18 pays d'Amérique latine au cours de la période 1990-2010, avec un accent sur les deniers 40 pour cent. Il explore alors comment ces mesures fiscales ainsi que leur composition affectent la croissance des revenus des dernier 40 pour cent, la croissance de leur part de revenu ainsi que la croissance économique. Les mesures d'expansion et de contraction budgétaire sont identifiées par des périodes au cours desquels il existe une variation significative du déficit primaire corrigé des variations conjoncturelles en pourcentage du PIB. Les résultats montrent qu'en moyenne l'expansion budgétaire par la hausse des dépenses publiques est plus favorable à la croissance des revenus des moins bien-nantis que celle par la baisse des impôts. Ce résultat est principalement soutenu par la hausse des dépenses gouvernementales de consommation courante, les transferts et subventions. En outre ces mesures d’expansion budgétaire sont favorables à la réduction des inégalités car elles permettent d'améliorer la part des revenus des moins bien-nantis tout en réduisant la part des revenus des mieux-nantis de la distribution des revenus. En outre ces mesures d’expansion budgétaire sont favorables à la réduction des inégalités car elles permettent d'améliorer la part des revenus des moins bien-nantis tout en réduisant la part des revenus des mieux-nantis de la distribution des revenus. Cependant, l'expansion budgétaire pourrait soit n'avoir aucun effet sur la croissance économique ou entraver cette dernière à travers la hausse des dépenses en capital. Les résultats relatifs à la contraction budgétaire sont quelque peu mitigés. Parfois, les mesures de contraction budgétaire sont associées à une baisse de la croissance des revenus des moins bien nantis et à une hausse des inégalités, parfois l'impact de ces mesures est non significatif. Par ailleurs, aucune des mesures n’affecte de manière significative la croissance du PIB. Comme implications de politique économique, les pays avec une certaine marge de manœuvre budgétaire pourraient entamer ou continuer à mettre en œuvre des programmes de "filets de sauvetage"--par exemple les programmes de transfert monétaire conditionnel--permettant aux segments vulnérables de la population de faire face à des chocs négatifs et aussi d'améliorer leur conditions de vie. Avec un potentiel de stimuler l'emploi peu qualifié, une relance budgétaire sage par les dépenses publique courantes pourrait également jouer un rôle important pour la réduction des inégalités. Aussi, pour éviter que les dépenses en capital freinent la croissance économique, les projets d'investissements publics efficients devraient être prioritaires dans le processus d'élaboration des politiques. Ce qui passe par la mise en œuvre des projets d'investissement avec une productivité plus élevée capable de générer la croissance économique nécessaire pour réduire les inégalités.
In the wake of the 2008-09 Global Recession, several issues have been raised in the economic literature about the short and long-run effects of fiscal policy on economic activity with respect to its signs, its size and its duration. These have important implications to better understand the transmission channels and the effectiveness of fiscal policies, along with the monetary policy being pursued, as well as for their economic fallouts. This dissertation is part of this renewed strand of literature to assess how changes in fiscal policy affect economic activity. It therefore relies on three essays: the macroeconomic effects of government spending and tax revenue shocks, the economic outcomes of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies and the nexus between fiscal policy and income distribution. The first chapter examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks (government spending and tax revenue shocks) on the Canadian economy, building on the sign-restrictions-VAR approach developed by Mountford and Uhlig [2009]. In response to the Global Recession, fiscal authorities in advanced economies including Canada typically implemented a two-phase approach to fiscal policy. First, they introduced unprecedented stimulus packages to revive their economies. For instance, stimulus measures in Canada, introduced through Canada's Economic Action Plan, were projected at 3.2 percent of GDP in the 2009 federal budget while the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was estimated at 7 percent of GDP. Following the stimulus, they shifted gears, adopting adjustment plans to reduce public debt and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. Against this backdrop, examining the size of fiscal multiplier is important to informing the effectiveness of such policy measures in reviving or not economic activity. I find that tax-cut multipliers vary between 0.2 and 0.5, while spending multipliers range between 0.2 and 1.1. Spending multipliers tend to be larger than tax-cut multipliers over the last two decades. For policy implications, these results tend to suggest that fiscal consolidations through large spending cuts could be more harmful to the economy than tax-based fiscal adjustments. The second chapter, co-written with Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, provides estimates of the US government spending multiplier over the monetary policy cycle. Government spending shocks are identified as forecast errors of the growth rate of government spending from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and from the Greenbook record, further stripped from their predictable components. The state of monetary policy is inferred from the deviation of the Fed funds rate from the target rate, using a smooth transition function. Applying the local projections method to quarterly US data over the period 1965-2012, results show that the federal government spending multiplier is substantially higher under accommodative than non-accommodative monetary policy. The estimations also suggest that federal government spending may crowd-in or crowd-out private consumption, depending on the extent of monetary policy accommodation. The latter result reconciles---in a unified framework---apparently contradictory findings in the literature. These findings have important policy implications. They broadly suggest that fiscal policy is more effective when needed the most (e.g., at times of slack), if supported by monetary policy. They also have implications for the normalization of monetary conditions in advanced economies: the exit from UMP would lead to much lower federal government spending multipliers than otherwise, even if some amount of slack was to remain in the economy. This further highlights the need for a careful calibration of the timing of exit from unconventional monetary policy. The third chapter examines the impact of fiscal expansion and fiscal contraction measures on income distribution in a panel of 18 Latin American countries over the period 1990-2010, with a focus on the bottom 40 percent. It therefore explores how these fiscal measures and their composition have affected the income growth of the bottom 40 percent, their income share growth and economic growth. Fiscal expansions and fiscal consolidations are identified by periods for which there is a significant change in the cyclically-adjusted primary deficit as share of GDP. I find that on average, expenditures-based fiscal expansion are more likely to increase the income of the bottom 40 percent than revenues-based fiscal expansion. This result is mainly driven by government current consumption, transfers and subsidies. In addition, these fiscal expansion measures help to reduce income inequality by improving the income share of the bottom segments of the population while reducing the top income share. However, fiscal expansion could either have no effect on economic growth or prevent the latter through capital expenditures increases. Results for fiscal consolidation are somewhat mixed. Sometime, fiscal consolidation is associated with a decline of the income growth of the less well-off and rising inequality, sometime the impact is non-significant. None of the fiscal contraction measures affects significantly GDP growth. These findings have important policy implications. Countries with some fiscal space could initiate or continue to implement safety nets program--like conditional cash transfer programs--necessary to prevent the vulnerable segment of the population to adverse shocks and to improve their living standards. With a potential of stimulating low-skill employment, a wise fiscal stimulus through government current consumption increases could also play a significant role to reduce income inequality. Also, to avoid capital expenditures that hinder economic growth, efficient public investment projects should be prioritized in the policy making process. This consists of implementing investment projects with higher productivity that can enhance economic growth necessary to reduce inequality.

碩士
國立屏東科技大學
企業管理系所
99
The effectiveness of culture resource input impacts the developing levels for the urban and rural culture development. Past research in the creativity industry most focus on culture resource competition, and rarely based on industrial clustering and culture attribute approach. This research from the resource-base theory applies multiple causal mediation model to expire the driving forces of Urban and Rural Culture development. Aims to position the unique cultural attribute and set strategic path of culture industrial clustering. And then, construct a conceptual model to check the mediated roles between core resource and cultural development. The research results aims to benefit the firms’ performance and local cultural development. Survey questionnaires will send to the firms, administration staff, and academic scholars in the culture creative industry. Analysis tools include path analysis and linear structural equation model to test the model fitness and related hypothesis. In order to make sure the direct and indirect effects, the impact of cultural resources onto urban and rural culture development will be empirical test. Finally, the results hope to suppose constructive suggestion for the cultural development of five campus cultural creative industry in Taiwan. The results reveal the driving force of core resources is mainly intangible capital that influence within the whole. The types of cultural development in urban and rural areas are organizational capital and human capital. Secondly, development of the local cultural industry is most important criteria to achieve industry clustering phenomenon. And, sustainable development for local characteristic is also most important criteria to improve local characteristic development. In addition, three critical criteria to influence the driving force of local cultural development in urban and rural areas. They are promoting the local government’s inputs, rising residents’ participation intensity of the local communality, and improving the spiritual satisfaction in quality of life. Actually, inputs of core resources are significant influence development of local cultural. Finally, industry clustering and local characteristic are two important mediators. However, causal relationship exists between these two mediators. That is, after inputs of core resources, achieving industry clustering first would be more effective than developing local characteristic. This study also proposes empirical and academic suggestions for cultural development in urban and rural areas while culture creative industries are implemented.

Pesticides are widely used in the agricultural sector and are the subject of numerous studies on the links between population exposure and health effects. The suspected pathologies and the exposed populations are multiple (farmers, consumers, local residents, etc.).

This chapter discusses the channels of impact of an extractives activity on an economy by describing the different routes through which the direct economic and social impacts of these activities might be enhanced. These routes include those that often have the highest political profile, namely spending of government revenues. It also discusses other channels that arguably are far more important, such as the direct effects of corporate spend in local supply chains; the immediate ‘multiplier’ effects of this; the further multipliers that follow from significant income growth; the new downstream activities that may be built on the primary extractive activity; and the externalities that may accrue from the direct boost that a large extractive investment is likely to provide.

The eastern Arctic and Greenland are characterized by diverse paleoclimatic histories. A range of biological, geochemical, and geophysical indicators preserved in ice cores, lake, and ocean sediments, landscape features, or boreholes can be applied to reconstructing Holocene climates over the period of human occupation. Soon after humans arrived in the eastern Arctic around 4800 cal B.P., regional temperatures began to decline. While the proxy records show a strong regional signal, this period of Neoglacial cooling has considerable local variability related to degree of continentality, sea ice conditions and elevation. Much later, the effect of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 850-1360) on the Thule migration appears to have been overstated. Because of the considerable spatiotemporal variability in available paleoclimate reconstructions from the eastern Arctic, data from multiple sites must be integrated, and for archaeological applications, regional syntheses need to be considered alongside highly local reconstructions.

Rhabdomyolysis is a potentially life-threatening syndrome characterized by the breakdown of skeletal muscle. It is associated with myalgia, muscle tenderness, swelling, and/or stiffness, accompanied by weakness and raised levels of creatine kinase (CK), myoglobin, phosphate and potassium, sometimes with acute kidney injury (AKI). There are multiple causes of this syndrome, traumatisms and myotoxic effect of drugs being the most frequent in developed countries. The pathophysiology involves direct trauma, as well as energy (ATP) depletion with disruption of sarcolemma integrity and muscle destruction. The sequestration of plasma water leads to hypovolaemic shock, while the release of muscle content, mainly myoglobin and potassium lead to the most severe complications of this syndrome, acute kidney injury/hyperkalaemia. The kidney injury is driven both by renal ischaemia due to vasoconstriction and to the toxic effects of myoglobin. The local oedema produced by the release of muscle content remains trapped within the fascia and can lead to compartment syndrome. Volume repletion with saline is essential to avoid hypovolaemic shock and acute kidney injury (AKI). With respect to compartment syndrome, close monitoring of clinical signs and compartment pressures is essential, since it can evolve to a surgical emergency. The prognosis of rhabdomyolysis is determined by age, baseline conditions and, most importantly, whether or not severe AKI develops.

The question of leadership is connected to many central debates in democratic theory. In this chapter, the focus is on leadership in terms of beliefs, not desires. Opinion leaders’ influence undermines the Independence Assumption. The first section looks at single opinion leaders, who, if their influence is strong and their competence limited, reduce group competence, often severely. The second section considers multiple correlated opinion leaders. The effects depend on the negative or positive correlation between the opinion leaders, the number of voters following each, and the competence of leaders. Multiple uncorrelated opinion leaders are the topic of the third section. Their influence can be relatively benign if they are many and if they are reasonably competent. Finally, a great many ‘local’ opinion leaders, as envisaged by Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet, can offset the negative epistemic impact of a few ‘big’ opinion leaders.

World Cinema and the Essay Film examines the ways in which essay film practices are deployed by transnational filmmakers in specific local and national contexts, in an interconnected world. The book identifies the essay film as a political and ethical tool to reflect upon and potentially resist the multiple, often contradictory effects of globalisation. With case studies of essayistic works by John Akomfrah, Frances Calvert, José Luis Guerín, Jonas Mekas, David Perlov, Apichatpong Weerasethakul and Zhao Liang, amongst many others, and with a photo-essay by Trinh T. Minh-ha, the book expands current research on the essay film and presents transnational perspectives on what is becoming a global film practice.

This chapter outlines the ways in which the workforce is becoming increasingly global, such that having an international perspective on diversity is ever more important. Using an intersectional framework on diversity, this chapter suggests that intersectionality, or the consideration of multiple identity statuses, might be enriched with the consideration of culture as a personal identity layer and/or as a factor that may change perceptions of identity categories across context. This chapter will then outline how national context might shape the meaning of and reactions to diverse identities, highlighting the additional effects of organizational, local, and regional contexts. Finally, this chapter provides implications for research and practice related to discrimination, in order to ensure more nuanced approaches to diversity management, for academics and practitioners alike.

Policing Intimacy analyzes literary depictions of sexual policing of the color line across multiple spaces with diverse colonial histories: Mississippi through William Faulkner’s work, Louisiana through Ernest Gaines’s novels, Haiti through the work of Marie Chauvet and Edwidge Danticat, and the Dominican Republic through writing by Julia Alvarez, Junot Díaz, and Nelly Rosario. This literature exposes the continuing coloniality that links depictions of U.S. democracy with Caribbean dictatorships in the twentieth century, revealing a set of interrelated features characterizing the transformation of colonial forms of racial and sexual control into neocolonial reconfigurations. Patterns are discernable, as a result of systemic inequality and large-scale historical events, revealing the ways in which private relations can reflect national occurrences and the intimate can be brought under public scrutiny. Acknowledging the widespread effects of racial and sexual policing that persist in current legal, economic, and political infrastructures across the circum-Caribbean can in turn bring to light permutations of resistance to the violent discriminations of the status quo. By drawing on colonial documents, such as early law systems like the 1685 French Code Noir instated in Haiti, the 1724 Code Noir in Louisiana, and the 1865 Black Code in Mississippi, in tandem with examples drawn from twentieth-century literature, Policing Intimacy humanizes the effects of legal histories and leaves space for local particularities. A focus on literary texts and the affordances enabled by the variances in form and aesthetics demonstrates the necessity of incorporating multiple stories, histories, and traumas into our accounts of the past.

In 2014, an estimated 1.9 billion adults worldwide were either overweight (BMI 25–29.9) or obese (BMI ≥30). The so-called obesity epidemic began in high-income, English-speaking countries in the early 1970s, but soon spread globally; more than one-third (38%) of all adults and 600,000 children under age five are overweight or obese, as are two-thirds (69%) of adults in the United States. Excessive body fat is a major cause of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular and liver disease, among other disorders, and has been designated a definite cause of at least fourteen cancer sites: breast (postmenopausal), colorectum, endometrium, esophagus (adenocarcinoma), gallbladder, kidney (renal cell), pancreas, gastric cardia, liver, ovary, prostate (advanced tumors), multiple myeloma, thyroid, and meningioma. Mechanisms by which adipose tissue are thought to promote tumor growth include the endocrine and metabolic effects of fat on sex hormones, growth factors, and inflammation, as well as local chemical or mechanical injury of gastrointestinal organs.

AbstractMeso-level contexts (e.g., neighbourhood or community contexts) have a profound influence on vulnerability trajectories. They may mediate, mitigate, or reinforce the impact of variables such as gender, age or social class. This chapter studies how meso-level economic factors cushion or worsen the negative effects of adverse circumstances on people’s socio-economic trajectories, health outcomes, or political attitudes. This chapter showcases four case studies, which show: (1) that meso-level labour market contexts can alter the size of the penalties associated with low levels of educational attainment or a more disadvantaged background for young people seeking employment for the first time; (2) that meso-level social networks act as multipliers of inequality; close social ties in the neighbourhood increase the probability of exiting unemployment in resourceful neighbourhoods, whereas they decrease the probability of unemployment exits in deprived neighbourhoods; (3) that people residing in locations with higher levels of income inequality perceive others as being more competitive, which produces paradoxical effects on their self-rated health and undermines the psychological health of the most economically vulnerable; (4) how the confrontation with meso-level inequality and diversity shapes people’s beliefs in meritocracy and examine how everyday experiences of local inequality reinforces or weakens people’s belief in meritocratic value.

AbstractEducation is a component of sustainable development with its strong effects at global, regional and local levels. The biggest challenge the world faces in this context is the preservation and continuous improvement of the effort put forward to provide sustainable education in studies on education. The lack of chances for learning stymies social, economic and sustainable development and long-term stability and peace. This chapter presents the business models of 49 companies and use cases that employ emerging technologies and create value in SDG-4, Quality Education. We should highlight that one use case can be related to more than one SDG and it can make use of multiple emerging technologies.

AbstractDrop impact on a hot surface heated above the saturation temperature of the fluid plays an important role in spray cooling. The heat transferred from the wall to the fluid is closely interrelated with drop hydrodynamics. If the surface temperature is below the Leidenfrost temperature, the heat transport strongly depends on the transport phenomena in the vicinity of the three-phase contact line. Due to extremely high local heat flux, a significant fraction of the total heat flow is transported through this region. The local transport processes near the three-phase contact line, and, therefore, the total heat transport, are determined by the wall superheat, contact line velocity, system pressure, fluid composition, surface structure and physical properties on the wall. The effect of the aforementioned influencing parameters on fluid dynamics and heat transport during evaporation of a single meniscus in a capillary slot are studied in a generic experimental setup. The hydrodynamics and evolution of wall heat flux distribution during the impact of a single drop onto a hot wall are also studied experimentally by varying the impact parameters, wall superheat, system pressure, and wall topography. In addition, the fluid dynamics and heat transport behavior during vertical and horizontal coalescence of multiple drops on a heated surface are studied experimentally.

AbstractA multiscale analysis is performed to investigate deformation and fracture in the aluminum-alumina composite and steel with a boride coating as an example. Model microstructure of the composite materials with irregular geometry of the matrix-particle and substrate-coating interfaces correspondent to the experimentally observed microstructure is taken into account explicitly as initial conditions of the boundary value problem that allows introducing multiple spatial scales. The problem in a plane strain formulation is solved numerically by the finite-difference method. Physically-based constitutive models are developed to describe isotropic strain hardening, strain rate and temperature effects, Luders band propagation and jerky flow, and fracture. Local regions experiencing bulk tension are found to occur during compression that control cracking of composites. Interrelated plastic strain localization in the steel substrate and aluminum matrix and crack origination and growth in the ceramic coating and particles are shown to depend on the strain rate, particle size and arrangement, as well as on the loading direction: tension or compression.

AbstractThis chapter examines from systems and livelihood perspectives, with Nemoral and Boreal forest zones of the Global North and Sweden as examples, how forestry may meet current and future sustainability challenges both as a traditional resource base and with respect to other ecosystem services. Previous and current forest policy/governance is briefly described against the background that Swedish forestry is based both on huge holdings by few industrial owners as well as on a multitude of small individual, often family owned, forest estates. Successful delivery against environmental objectives will require careful balancing of interests and the active participation of local forest owners. Cumulative effects of old and new societal demands on forestry and their impact on local livelihoods poses in this respect a systemic risk as economic and social sustainability often gets limited consideration. There is a need for a more synoptic and systemic analysis of how forestry is affected by multiple, partly contradictory, demands from an increasing array of stakeholders, in order to enable a move towards a biobased economy. Stakeholder-based group modelling is a potentially powerful analytic and conflict reducing approach that could help improve forestry’s contribution to the acute need to handle the climate change and current sustainability challenges.

Abstract Non-native plants change the communities they integrate in multiple ways, including direct and indirect effects on co-occurring native vegetation. While direct effects are more obvious, indirect effects, i.e. those mediated by biotic interactions with other trophic levels, can also have pervasive consequences for long-term community persistence. Seed dispersal is a critical stage during the life cycle of most plants, as it lays the foundations for plant recruitment patterns and long-term vegetation dynamics. By interacting with seed-dispersing animals, primarily frugivorous birds and mammals, plants can positively or negatively affect the dispersal of co-occurring native seeds. In an increasingly invaded world, it is thus critically important to identify general trends on the direction and magnitude of these effects. This chapter reviews the empirical evidence supporting such changes and the potential underlying mechanisms driving them. While the direct impacts of plant invasions are relatively easy to document, indirect effects are much harder to detect. Nevertheless, the most important consequence of the incorporation of new fruiting plants into native communities seems to be a direct competition for the services provided by the local dispersers, negatively affecting native seed dispersal rates. However, another key message emerging from the literature is that responses are highly idiosyncratic, and usually habitat- and species-specific, and therefore resistant to broad generalizations. Fruiting phenology, and in particular the synchrony/asynchrony between the availability of native and non-native fruits, seems to be a particularly important driver of the direction of the responses (i.e. towards facilitation or competition). However, most evidence is still derived from anecdotal observations and formal community level assessments are largely missing. Similarly, how invasive plants change the emergent structure of seed dispersal networks remains uncertain, with early evidence suggesting that novel seed dispersal networks might be structurally very similar to native ones. Bringing together classic experimental designs and new technical and analytical tools to provide broad synthesis will be vital in the near future to clarify the direction, magnitude and generality of these effects.

AbstractClimate change affects the functioning of all of the components of food systems, often in ways that exacerbate existing predicaments and inequalities among regions of the world and groups in society. At the same time, food systems are a major cause of climate change, accounting for a third of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, food systems can and should play a much bigger role in climate policies. This chapter highlights nine action points for climate change adaptation and mitigation in food systems. The chapter shows that numerous practices, technologies, knowledge and social capital already exist for climate action in food systems, with multiple synergies with other important goals, such as the conservation of biodiversity, the safeguarding of ecosystem services, sustainable land management and reducing social and gender inequalities. Many of these solutions are presently being applied at local scales around the world, even if not at sufficient levels. Hence, the major effort to unleash their potential would involve overcoming various technical, political-economic and structural barriers for their much wider application. Some other solutions require research and development investments now, but will focus on helping us meet the longer-term challenges of climate change in regard to food systems in the second half of this century, when most existing food production practices will face unprecedented challenges. In the short term, these pro-poor policy changes and support systems can have a range of positive effects well beyond food systems without delay. In the long term, investments in research will help ensure food security and ecosystem integrity for coming generations.

AbstractDigital literacy is a critical competence for empowering citizenship in a digital world. It has become a key element in teaching and learning across the different educational stages that has been addressed since the last decade of the twentieth century within the field of open, distance, and digital education. The literature so far has not agreed on a common definition, but multiple international, national, and even local, frameworks exist to foster digital literacy and to evaluate and certificate it, especially with a focus on educators and students in different educational levels, but also with the citizen perspective. These frameworks are reviewed in this chapter, along with the evolution and conceptualization of digital literacy and some strategies to foster digital literacy in different educational sectors, with a focus on the educator as a key player in this fostering action. The most remarkable challenges for developing digital literacy for teaching and learning include the same conception of digital literacy, which is multiple and situated, the digital divide and the actual consideration of digital literacy as a social practice. Being digital literacy a transversal competency nowadays, clear implications for education can be drawn, such as reshaping organizations to the digital conditions, thinking on digital literacy as a collective effort, and enriching the global discourse through diversity in debates.

AbstractDigital literacy is a critical competence for empowering citizenship in a digital world. It has become a key element in teaching and learning across the different educational stages that has been addressed since the last decade of the twentieth century within the field of open, distance, and digital education. The literature so far has not agreed on a common definition, but multiple international, national, and even local, frameworks exist to foster digital literacy and to evaluate and certificate it, especially with a focus on educators and students in different educational levels, but also with the citizen perspective. These frameworks are reviewed in this chapter, along with the evolution and conceptualization of digital literacy and some strategies to foster digital literacy in different educational sectors, with a focus on the educator as a key player in this fostering action. The most remarkable challenges for developing digital literacy for teaching and learning include the same conception of digital literacy, which is multiple and situated, the digital divide and the actual consideration of digital literacy as a social practice. Being digital literacy a transversal competency nowadays, clear implications for education can be drawn, such as reshaping organizations to the digital conditions, thinking on digital literacy as a collective effort, and enriching the global discourse through diversity in debates.

AbstractIn late 2014, the city of Athens began to receive large numbers of refugees and migrants from the Aegean islands, mainly ‘transit’ refugees who wanted to travel to Northern Europe. The political and socioeconomic situation in the country was difficult, as the effects of the economic crisis (2010) were still being felt. Squeezed between different and constantly changing legal frameworks, different levels of public governance and facing xenophobic reactions from local residents, the authorities of Athens had to face a new ‘wicked problem’ and find urgent solutions and innovative policies. This chapter discusses the main policies developed by the Municipality of Athens to provide basic goods and services for the survival and dignity of the large number of migrants and refugees, as well as to transform administrative structures and review policy priorities. Three important aspects of the ‘wicked problem’ are highlighted: (a) the clear political responses against xenophobic reactions (b) the innovation of the institutional and financial framework by ‘deviating’ from administrative rigidities, and (c) the coordination of the ‘Babel’ of multiple policy actors involved in addressing the ‘refugee crisis’ beyond the established public sector. The lack of a coherent national strategy forced the city government to find innovative solutions, raise funding from multiple sources and mobilise new social actors and policy networks. The case of the Municipality of Athens has highlighted that policy innovation, administrative reform, and institutional change under conditions of humanitarian emergency can be facilitated by mobilising untapped human and institutional forces and resources.

Confronted with the problem of how to conduct a complete fatigue analysis of the Tube Plate (TP) of Tubular and Shell Heat Exchangers and particularly of the Steam Generators equipping nuclear power plants of the Pressurized Water Reactor type (PWR), analysts have developed a method to analyse stress in perforated flat and thick Tube Plates with square penetration (crate) patterns, and in particular to analyse several specific zones such as the Interface Zones and various Effects, such as the Secondary (or Shell) Thermal Gradient Effect (STG Effect), the Thermal Gradient in the No-Tube Lane Effect (TGL Effect) and their interactions. The benefit of the approach is that it enables to analyze mechanical and thermal stress calculated using a full 3D Finite Element model incorporating an equivalent solid and the different Interface Zones, and allowing simulating the specific Thermo-Mechanical Effects. The Interface Zones (IZs) are those between the perforated and non-perforated area, the STG Effect is due to the strong gradient near the Secondary (or Shell) Side surface, the TGL Effect is produced by a temperature gradient across the No-Tube Lane. The method used for the fatigue analysis is based on a “Partitioning Stress Method” by means of which the stress induced by the various load types — mechanical loads, global thermal loads, local thermal effects (STG and TGL Effects), and local geometrical effects (IZs) — are first treated separately and then recombined with their appropriate Stress Multiplier Functions.

Tourism contributes to the growth of economy of a nation through employment, the multiplier effect, and foreign exchange earnings. It also contributes towards a positive balance of payments. Eco-tourism is the natural evolution of tourism that cares for the environment, culture and local traditions, while promoting environmental education. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant negative effect on the tourism industry in almost all countries in Asia including Malaysia and Indonesia, therefore an analysis of the intention to undertake eco-tourism in the new norm of the post pandemic period is the basis for consideration of this research paper in a bid to turnaround the tourism industry.

COVID-19 is a global pandemic that has wreaked havoc on the lives of many individuals and has had a severe impact on the global economy. During this crisis, small and medium-scale businesses suffer the most and are the least prepared among all companies as per the previous studies done in other parts of the world. The majority of the small-scale construction firms in Sri Lanka act as subcontractors and generate job opportunities for a considerable number of people and are able to create a multiplier effect on the whole economy. However, it was observed that they are more vulnerable to the adverse impact of the pandemic. Thus, the principal goal of this research is to explore possible survival strategies to overcome critical financial issues of small-scale construction companies during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Sri Lanka. A mixedmethod approach was adopted to gather the data for the study. A comprehensive literature review was carried out to identify the impact of COVID-19 on both global and local construction industries. The data for this study was gathered using semi-structured interviews and a comprehensive questionnaire survey with small scale construction company owners and construction industry professionals. The findings highlighted the key financial issues faced by the small-scale construction companies due to the pandemic including delays in client payments, supply chain management issues, frequent price escalation of construction materials, and inability to repay loans. The respondents suggested creating partnerships with financially strong companies, reduction of unwanted expenses, modifying supply chain channels and agreements, and ensuring business continuity plans as the strategies to be used to overcome the financial burden that occurred due to the pandemic.

Abstract This paper reports a successful case study of applying machine learning to improve the history matching process, making it easier, less time-consuming, and more accurate, by determining whether Local Grid Refinement (LGR) with transmissibility multiplier is needed to history match gas-condensate wells producing from geologically complex reservoirs as well as determining the required LGR setup to history match those gas-condensate producers. History matching Hai Thach gas-condensate production wells is extremely challenging due to the combined effect of condensate banking, sub-seismic fault network, complex reservoir distribution and connectivity, uncertain HIIP, and lack of PVT data for most reservoirs. In fact, for some wells, many trial simulation runs were conducted before it became clear that LGR with transmissibility multiplier was required to obtain good history matching. In order to minimize this time-consuming trial-and-error process, machine learning was applied in this study to analyze production data using synthetic samples generated by a very large number of compositional sector models so that the need for LGR could be identified before the history matching process begins. Furthermore, machine learning application could also determine the required LGR setup. The method helped provide better models in a much shorter time, and greatly improved the efficiency and reliability of the dynamic modeling process. More than 500 synthetic samples were generated using compositional sector models and divided into separate training and test sets. Multiple classification algorithms such as logistic regression, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Bernoulli Naive Bayes, multinomial Naive Bayes, linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, and Decision Tree as well as artificial neural networks were applied to predict whether LGR was used in the sector models. The best algorithm was found to be the Decision Tree classifier, with 100% accuracy on the training set and 99% accuracy on the test set. The LGR setup (size of LGR area and range of transmissibility multiplier) was also predicted best by the Decision Tree classifier with 91% accuracy on the training set and 88% accuracy on the test set. The machine learning model was validated using actual production data and the dynamic models of history-matched wells. Finally, using the machine learning prediction on wells with poor history matching results, their dynamic models were updated and significantly improved.

Abstract This study aims to apply machine learning (ML) to make history matching (HM) process easier, faster, more accurate, and more reliable by determining whether Local Grid Refinement (LGR) with transmissibility multiplier is needed to history match gas-condensate wells producing from geologically complex reservoirs and determining how LGR should be set up to successfully history match those production wells. The main challenges for HM gas-condensate production from Hai Thach wells are large effect of condensate banking (condensate blockage), flow baffles by the sub-seismic fault network, complex reservoir distribution and connectivity, highly uncertain HIIP, and lack of PVT information for most reservoirs. In this study, ML was applied to analyze production data using synthetic samples generated by a very large number of compositional sector models so that the need for LGR could be identified before the HM process and the required LGR setup could also be determined. The proposed method helped provide better models in a much shorter time, and improved the efficiency and reliability of the dynamic modeling process. 500+ synthetic samples were generated using compositional sector models and divided into training and test sets. Supervised classification algorithms including logistic regression, Gaussian, Bernoulli, and multinomial Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbors, and Decision Tree as well as ANN were applied to the data sets to determine the need for using LGR in HM. The best algorithm was found to be the Decision Tree classifier, with 100% and 99% accuracy on the training and the test sets, respectively. The size of the LGR area could also be determined reasonably well at 89% and 87% accuracy on the training and the test sets, respectively. The range of the transmissibility multiplier could also be determined reasonably well at 97% and 91% accuracy on the training and the test sets, respectively. Moreover, the ML model was validated using actual production and HM data. A new method of applying ML in dynamic modeling and HM of challenging gas-condensate wells in geologically complex reservoirs has been successfully applied to the high-pressure high-temperature Hai Thach field offshore Vietnam. The proposed method helped reduce many trial and error simulation runs and provide better and more reliable dynamic models.

The study aims to show in the conditions of the South Bohemian Region the effectiveness and efficiency of support for the local economy as an endogenous source of employment and business development in tourism support. The methodological procedure is a multiplier including an input-output matrix for the South Bohemian Region. This matrix contains statistical data on aggregated regional - economic resources, production, and consumption. The results of the calculations of final demand and regional gross value added of the region are also presented. The primary data sources for the calculation were the open-source of the Czech Statistical Office, which publishes the Statistical Yearbook every year. The Statistical Yearbook of the South Bohemian Region 2021 contains all the necessary data for processing the input-output analysis of the multiplier effects of the tourism industry. The results of the application of these tools are summarized in a sectoral input-output table for the South Bohemian Region. The output multipliers for the South Bohemian Region show increased tourism scores compared to structurally similar regions. It is, therefore, a promising sector, which is determined by the favorable structure of tourist attractions.

This paper is concerned with the multiple opportunities and challenges of artisanal palm oil processing and the potential multiplier effects on local economies. It examines the effect of the presence of large oil palm plantations and their industrial processing mills on artisanal palm oil processing in two districts in the Western region of Ghana. Although artisanal and industrial processors have co-existed for a long time in the same catchment areas, little is known about the impact of this relationship on artisanal processing. Acknowledging the importance of rural diversity, complexity, and difference in agriculture-based off-farm activities, this paper also examines the effect of community and household level factors on palm oil processing incidence and intensity as well as the impact of processing on food (in)security.

This paper synthesises the findings of a set of country studies commissioned by the RISE Programme to explore the influence of politics and power on education sector policymaking and implementation. The synthesis groups the countries into three political-institutional contexts: Dominant contexts, where power is centred around a political leader and a hierarchical governance structure. As the Vietnam case details, top-down leadership potentially can provide a robust platform for improving learning outcomes. However, as the case studies of Ethiopia, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Tanzania illustrate, all-too-often dominant leaders’ goals vis-à-vis the education sector can veer in other directions. In impersonal competitive contexts, a combination of strong formal institutions and effective processes of resolving disagreements can, on occasion, result in a shared commitment among powerful interests to improve learning outcomes—but in none of the case studies is this outcome evident. In Peru, substantial learning gains have been achieved despite messy top-level politics. But the Chilean, Indian, and South African case studies suggest that the all-too-common result of rule-boundedness plus unresolved political contestation over the education sector’s goals is some combination of exaggerated rule compliance and/or performative isomorphic mimicry. Personalised competitive contexts (Bangladesh, Ghana, and Kenya for example) lack the seeming strengths of either their dominant or their impersonal competitive contexts; there are multiple politically-influential groups and multiple, competing goals—but no credible framework of rules to bring coherence either to political competition or to the education bureaucracy. The case studies show that political and institutional constraints can render ineffective many specialised sectoral interventions intended to improve learning outcomes. But they also point to the possibility that ‘soft governance’ entry points might open up some context-aligned opportunities for improving learning outcomes. In dominant contexts, the focus might usefully be on trying to influence the goals and strategies of top-level leadership. In impersonal competitive contexts, it might be on strengthening alliances between mission-oriented public officials and other developmentally-oriented stakeholders. In personalised competitive contexts, gains are more likely to come from the bottom-up—via a combination of local-level initiatives plus a broader effort to inculcate a shared sense among a country’s citizenry of ‘all for education’.

This paper synthesises the findings of a set of country studies commissioned by the RISE Programme to explore the influence of politics and power on education sector policymaking and implementation. The synthesis groups the countries into three political-institutional contexts: Dominant contexts, where power is centred around a political leader and a hierarchical governance structure. As the Vietnam case details, top-down leadership potentially can provide a robust platform for improving learning outcomes. However, as the case studies of Ethiopia, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Tanzania illustrate, all-too-often dominant leaders’ goals vis-à-vis the education sector can veer in other directions. In impersonal competitive contexts, a combination of strong formal institutions and effective processes of resolving disagreements can, on occasion, result in a shared commitment among powerful interests to improve learning outcomes—but in none of the case studies is this outcome evident. In Peru, substantial learning gains have been achieved despite messy top-level politics. But the Chilean, Indian, and South African case studies suggest that the all-too-common result of rule-boundedness plus unresolved political contestation over the education sector’s goals is some combination of exaggerated rule compliance and/or performative isomorphic mimicry. Personalised competitive contexts (Bangladesh, Ghana, and Kenya for example) lack the seeming strengths of either their dominant or their impersonal competitive contexts; there are multiple politically-influential groups and multiple, competing goals—but no credible framework of rules to bring coherence either to political competition or to the education bureaucracy. The case studies show that political and institutional constraints can render ineffective many specialised sectoral interventions intended to improve learning outcomes. But they also point to the possibility that ‘soft governance’ entry points might open up some context-aligned opportunities for improving learning outcomes. In dominant contexts, the focus might usefully be on trying to influence the goals and strategies of top-level leadership. In impersonal competitive contexts, it might be on strengthening alliances between mission-oriented public officials and other developmentally-oriented stakeholders. In personalised competitive contexts, gains are more likely to come from the bottom-up—via a combination of local-level initiatives plus a broader effort to inculcate a shared sense among a country’s citizenry of ‘all for education’.

Invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) were first observed in situ at Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (APIS) in 2015. This report builds on 2018 SCUBA surveys and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) veliger sampling to: 1) determine whether shoals on APIS borders act as sentinel sites to corroborate veliger drift hypotheses about invasion pathways, 2) evaluate ongoing hand-removal of zebra mussels from easily identified structures, and 3) continue efforts to assess native unionid mussel populations, particularly where zebra mussels are also present. Standard catch per unit effort survey methods by SCUBA teams were used to determine the distribution and relative abundance of zebra or quagga mussels (dreissenids) and native mussels (unionids). Zebra mussels were present at densities between 3 and 42 n/diver/hr (number of mussels per diver per hour), while native unionids were present at densities between 5 and 72 n/diver/hr. Shoal surveys (Eagle Island shoal, Sand Island shoal, York Island shoal, Bear Island shoal, Oak Island shoal, and Gull Island shoal) showed zebra mussels were more abundant on the west side of APIS and absent on the easternmost shoal (Gull Island), corroborating veliger work by the EPA that suggested drift from the Twin Ports of Duluth, Minnesota, and Superior, Wisconsin, is one pathway of invasion. Our results support the use of shallow shoals along the periphery of the park as sentinel sites gauging zebra mussel immigration and population dynamics. Zebra mussel densities in the central islands showed no obvious spatial pattern, and this survey cannot determine whether currents or human transport (or both) are invasion vectors. Given the mussels’ continued presence at heavily used mooring areas and docks where there are no zebra mussels on nearby natural features (e.g., Rocky Island dock, Stockton Island mooring areas), our findings are consistent with multiple invasion pathways (drift from the Twin Ports and anthropogenic sources at mooring areas). SCUBA search and removal of zebra mussels from docks was confirmed to be an effective method for significantly lowering the risk of zebra mussels reproducing and dispersing from these locations. We caution that this work is being done on what look like initial invasions at low densities. Repeated removal of zebra mussels by divers reduced numbers to zero at some sites after one year (South Twin docks, Stockton Island NPS docks, and the Ottawa wreck) or decreased numbers by an order of magnitude (Rocky Island docks). Dreissenid densities were more persistent on the Sevona wreck and longer-term work is required to evaluate removal versus recruitment (local and/or veliger drift). Given the size of the wreck, we have tracked detailed survey maps to guide future efforts. Zebra mussels were again observed attached to native mussels near Stockton Island and South Twin Island. Their continued presence on sensitive native species is of concern. Native unionid mussels were more widely distributed in the park than previously known, with new beds found near Oak and Basswood Islands. The work reported here will form the basis for continued efforts to determine the optimal frequency of zebra mussel removal for effective control, as well as evaluate impacts on native species.

Introduction u cours des deux derniers millénaires, il y a eu plusieurs façons de conserver, transmettre et même créer la connaissance ; la tradition orale, l’écrit manuscrit, l’écrit imprimé et l’écrit numérisé. La tradition orale et le manuscrit ont dominé pendant plus de 1400 ans, et ce, jusqu’à l’apparition du livre imprimé en 1451, résultant de l’invention mécanique de Gutenberg. Il faudra attendre un peu plus de 550 ans, avant que l’invention du support électronique déloge à son tour le livre imprimé, prenant une ampleur sans précédent grâce à la révolution numérique contemporaine, résultat du maillage des technologies de l’informatique, de la robotique et de la science des données. Les premières universités qui sont nées en Occident, au Moyen Âge, ont développé cette tradition orale de la connaissance tout en multipliant l’usage du manuscrit créant ainsi de véritables communautés de maîtres et d’étudiants ; la venue de l’imprimerie permettra la multiplication des universités où l’oral et l’écrit continueront de jouer un rôle déterminant dans la création et la transmission des connaissances même si le « support » a évolué du manuscrit à l’imprimé puis vers le numérique. Au cours de toutes ces années, le modèle de l’université s’est raffiné et perfectionné sur une trajectoire somme toute assez linéaire en élargissant son rôle dans l’éducation à celui-ci de la recherche et de l’innovation, en multipliant les disciplines offertes et les clientèles desservies. L’université de chaque ville universitaire est devenue une institution florissante et indispensable à son rayonnement international, à un point tel que l’on mesure souvent sa contribution par la taille de sa clientèle étudiante, l’empreinte de ses campus, la grandeur de ses bibliothèques spécialisées ; c’est toutefois la renommée de ses chercheurs qui consacre la réputation de chaque université au cours de cette longue trajectoire pendant laquelle a pu s’établir la liberté universitaire. « Les libertés universitaires empruntèrent beaucoup aux libertés ecclésiastiques » : Étudiants et maîtres, qu'ils furent, ou non, hommes d'Église, furent assimilés à des clercs relevant de la seule justice ecclésiastique, réputée plus équitable. Mais ils échappèrent aussi largement à la justice ecclésiastique locale, n'étant justiciables que devant leur propre institution les professeurs et le recteur, chef élu de l’université - ou devant le pape ou ses délégués. Les libertés académiques marquèrent donc l’émergence d'un droit propre, qui ménageait aux maîtres et aux étudiants une place à part dans la société. Ce droit était le même, à travers l'Occident, pour tous ceux qui appartenaient à ces institutions supranationales que furent, par essence, les premières universités. À la fin du Moyen Âge, l'affirmation des États nationaux obligea les libertés académiques à s'inscrire dans ce nouveau cadre politique, comme de simples pratiques dérogatoires au droit commun et toujours sujettes à révision. Vestige vénérable de l’antique indépendance et privilège octroyé par le prince, elles eurent donc désormais un statut ambigu » . La révolution numérique viendra fragiliser ce statut. En effet, la révolution numérique vient bouleverser cette longue trajectoire linéaire de l’université en lui enlevant son quasi monopole dans la conservation et le partage du savoir parce qu’elle rend plus facile et somme toute, moins coûteux l’accès à l’information, au savoir et aux données. Le numérique est révolutionnaire comme l’était l’imprimé et son influence sur l’université, sera tout aussi considérable, car cette révolution impacte radicalement tous les secteurs de l’économie en accélérant la robotisation et la numérisation des processus de création, de fabrication et de distribution des biens et des services. Ces innovations utilisent la radio-identification (RFID) qui permet de mémoriser et de récupérer à distance des données sur les objets et l’Internet des objets qui permet aux objets d’être reliés automatiquement à des réseaux de communications .Ces innovations s’entrecroisent aux technologies de la réalité virtuelle, à celles des algorithmiques intelligentes et de l’intelligence artificielle et viennent littéralement inonder de données les institutions et les organisations qui doivent alors les analyser, les gérer et les protéger. Le monde numérique est né et avec lui, a surgi toute une série de compétences radicalement nouvelles que les étudiants, les enseignants et les chercheurs de nos universités doivent rapidement maîtriser pour évoluer dans ce Nouveau Monde, y travailler et contribuer à la rendre plus humain et plus équitable. En effet, tous les secteurs de l’activité commerciale, économique, culturelle ou sociale exigent déjà clairement des connaissances et des compétences numériques et technologiques de tous les participants au marché du travail. Dans cette nouvelle logique industrielle du monde numérique, les gagnants sont déjà bien identifiés. Ce sont les fameux GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et Microsoft) suivis de près par les NATU (Netflix, Airbnb, Tesla et Uber) et par les géants chinois du numérique, les BATX (Baidu, Alibaba, Tenant et Xiaomi). Ces géants sont alimentés par les recherches, les innovations et les applications mobiles (APPs) créées par les partenaires de leurs écosystèmes regroupant, sur différents campus d’entreprises, plusieurs des cerveaux qui sont au cœur de cette révolution numérique. L’université voit donc remise en question sa capacité traditionnelle d’attirer, de retenir et de promouvoir les artisans du monde de demain. Son aptitude à former des esprits critiques et à contribuer à la transmission des valeurs universelles est également ébranlée par ce tsunami de changements. Il faut cependant reconnaître que les facultés de médecine, d’ingénierie et de sciences naturelles aux États-Unis qui ont développé des contacts étroits, abondants et suivis avec les hôpitaux, les grandes entreprises et l’administration publique et cela dès la fin du 19e siècle ont été plus en mesure que bien d’autres, de recruter et retenir les gens de talent. Elle ont énormément contribué à faire avancer les connaissances scientifiques et la scolarisation en sciences appliquées ..La concentration inouïe des Prix Nobel scientifiques aux États-Unis est à cet égard très convaincante . La révolution numérique contemporaine survient également au moment même où de grands bouleversements frappent la planète : l’urgence climatique, le vieillissement des populations, la « déglobalisation », les déplacements des populations, les guerres, les pandémies, la crise des inégalités, de l’éthique et des démocraties. Ces bouleversements interpellent les universitaires et c’est pourquoi leur communauté doit adopter une raison d’être et ainsi renouveler leur mission afin des mieux répondre à ces enjeux de la civilisation. Cette communauté doit non seulement se doter d’une vision et des modes de fonctionnement adaptés aux nouvelles réalités liées aux technologies numériques, mais elle doit aussi tenir compte de ces grands bouleversements. Tout ceci l’oblige à s’intégrer à des écosystèmes où les connaissances sont partagées et où de nouvelles compétences doivent être rapidement acquises. Le but de ce texte est de mieux cerner l’ampleur du défi que pose le monde numérique au milieu universitaire et de proposer quelques idées pouvant alimenter la réflexion des universitaires dans cette démarche d’adaptation au monde numérique. Or, ma conviction la plus profonde c’est que la révolution numérique aura des impacts sur nos sociétés et notre civilisation aussi grands que ceux provoqués par la découverte de l’imprimerie et son industrialisation au 15e siècle. C’est pourquoi la première section de ce document est consacrée à un rappel historique de la révolution de l’imprimerie par Gutenberg alors que la deuxième section illustrera comment les caractéristiques de la révolution numérique viennent soutenir cette conviction si profonde. Une troisième section fournira plus de détails sur le défi d’adaptation que le monde numérique pose aux universités alors que la quatrième section évoquera les contours du changement de paradigme que cette adaptation va imposer. La cinquième section servira à illustrer un scénario de rêves qui permettra de mieux illustrer l’ampleur de la gestion du changement qui guette les universitaires. La conclusion permettra de revenir sur quelques concepts et principes clefs pour guider la démarche vers l’action. L’université ne peut plus « être en haut et seule », elle doit être « au centre et avec » des écosystèmes de partenariats multiples, dans un modèle hybride physique/virtuel. C’est ainsi qu’elle pourra conserver son leadership historique de vigie du savoir et des connaissances d’un monde complexe, continuer d’établir l’authenticité des faits et imposer la nécessaire rigueur de la science et de l’objectivité.

Double steel plate composite walls (DSCWs) with several unique types of connectors have been implemented to protect offshore oil exploration platforms from concentric forces caused by ice in the Arctic region. This paper investigates the compressive perfor-mance of DSCWs with interlocked J-hooks and overlapped headed studs at low temperatures ranging from 20 ℃ to -80 ℃ with nonlinear finite element models (FEMs). The intricate geometric size of the concrete, multiple interactions of the concrete with the connectors, and material nonlinearities of the concrete have been thoroughly simulated. The reasonable consistency between the results of the monotonic tests and finite element analysis (FEA) on nine DSCWs with interlocked J-hooks and seven DSCWs with overlapped headed studs indicates that the FEMs can effectively predict the compressive performance of the DSCWs at low temper-atures. On the basis of the validated FEMs, the effects of the horizontal and vertical spacing of the connectors on the compressive performance of the DSCWs are studied. Finally, theoretical models of the load-displacement curves are developed to reveal the compressive response of DSCWs at low temperatures with different types of connectors, taking into account the restraining effect of steel plates on the inner concrete and the local buckling of steel plates. Compared with previous tests and FEA, the developed theoretical models have reasonable consistency for the load-displacement curves of DSCWs at low temperatures.

For nearly a century, the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) has been at the forefront of tackling our nation's toughest engineering challenges, providing innovative solutions in the areas of civil works and military engineering, and offsetting the negative effects of climate change. From its earliest days of hydrology experiments along the Mississippi River in 1929, ERDC's R&D has grown, along with its buildings and capabilities. Today, ERDC's facilities, combined with its people, have created one of the world's premier R&D organizations supporting the delivery of projects and programs for federal, state and local agencies as well as private, academic and international partners. ERDC's ongoing R&D, aligned with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D portfolios, allows key investments to be targeted to strategic areas that can benefit multiple interests. ERDC's R&D enhances USACE's ability to execute its Civil Works (CW) missions to support commercial navigation, manage ecosystems and reduce flood risk, while our research in Installations and Operational Environments (IOE) is improving the reliability, efficiency and effectiveness of military infrastructure and on the battlefield. ERDC conducts scientific R&D to improve all aspects of mission planning, preparation, execution and sustainment, including innovations to protect the Warfighter. Sustained, multiyear support for ERDC R&D is critical to institutionalize successes and magnify benefits, enabling the nation to take a proactive approach to meeting the complex challenges of both today and tomorrow.

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor