Academic literature on the topic 'Loan contracting'

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how a firm’s investment behavior relates to its subsequent bank loan contracting. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of US firms during the period 1992-2011, the authors examine the association between overinvestment (underinvestment) and three characteristics of bank loan contracts: loan spread, collateral requirement, and loan maturity. Findings The authors find that overinvesting firms obtain loans with higher loan spreads. Additional tests show that the effect of overinvestment on loan spreads is generally more pronounced in firms with lower reputation, weaker shareholder rights, and lower institutional ownership. The effect of overinvestment on collateral requirement is mixed, and investment efficiency has no significant relation to loan maturity. Research limitations/implications The results are subject to the following caveats. First, while the study provides empirical evidence that investment efficiency affects bank loan contracting terms, especially the cost of bank loans, the underlying theory is not well-developed. The authors leave it up to future research to provide a theoretical framework to clearly distinguish the cash flow and credit risk effects of past investment behavior from those of existing agency conflicts. Second, due to data limitation, the sample size is small, especially when the authors control for corporate governance measured by G-index and institutional ownership. Practical implications The finding that overinvestment is costly to corporations suggests that managers should consider the potential trade-offs from such investment decisions carefully. The evidence also alerts shareholders and board members to the importance of monitoring management investment decisions. In addition, the authors find that corporate governance moderates the relationship between investment decisions and cost of bank loans, suggesting that it would be beneficial to design effective governance mechanisms to prevent management from empire building and motivate managers to pursue efficient investment strategies. Originality/value First, the findings enhance understanding of the potential economic consequences of overinvestment decisions in the context of a firm’s private debt contracting. The evidence suggests that lenders perceive higher credit risk from overinvestment than from underinvestment, likely because firms squander cash in the current period by investing in (negative net present value) projects that are likely to result in future cash flow problems. Second, the study contributes to the literature on the determinants of bank loans by identifying an observable empirical proxy for uncertainty in future cash flows that increases credit risk.

This study analyzes how social media affects bank loan contracting. Using a sample of 642 US bank loan contracts, we hypothesize that social media can enhance information dissemination and mitigate the information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that borrowers that receive positive social media user opinion on social media enjoy more favorable price of bank loan contracts. Additional analyses indicate that the relations among social media user opinion and bank loan price vary with the firm size, loan structure and availability of public information of borrowers. Overall, this research provides evidence that social media reduces cost of bank loans by decreasing information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders in the capital markets.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of a firm’s customer base concentration on its loan contract terms and how this effect varies with the strength of its customer relationship. Design/methodology/approach This study is an archival research based on a sample of US public firms that have loan contract data between 1990 and 2008. Major customer sales data are used to construct customer concentration and customer relationship measures. A debt contract model is employed to relate loan spread and other contract terms to customer concentration and relationship. Findings This study finds that firms with more concentrated customer bases have higher loan spread and shorter loan maturity and are more likely to issue secured loans. These negative effects disappear when the supplier firm maintains strong relationship with its customers. Research limitations/implications Additional forward-looking measure of customer relationship could benefit future research. Practical implications A firm’s customer base characteristics can have significant impacts on the terms of its loan contracts. Findings from this study support the notion that customer relationship is an important intangible asset that is informative to stakeholders of the firm. Originality/value This study proposes a new measure of customer relationship based on the past repeated relationships between a firm and its major customers. It shows that customer characteristics may affect firms’ contracts with creditors: customer base concentration increases credit risk whereas strong customer relationship improves credit quality.

The agency theory literature implies the pay-performance based managerial compensation can relieve the agency problem between shareholders and managers. As the interests of shareholders and managers are aligned, managers have incentive to invest in best projects and hence to improve firms’ performance. While the use of equity compensation to managers may reduce the agency cost between managers and shareholders, its impact on agency cost of debts is ambiguous. On the one hand, a large portion of equity compensation discourages risk-averse managers to invest in risky investment and hence reduce the credit risk. On the other hand, while the equity compensation brings the interests of managers in alignment to shareholder it may encourage managers to take opportunistic corporate strategies and to exploit the wealth of creditors. As a result, creditors may response to the CEO compensation package by imposing different covenant restrictions according to their perception of the credit risk. Supported with empirical evidence, this research finds that loan agreement contains more restrictive covenants if the firm’s CEO has a higher portion of option compensation to the total compensation, but contains less restrictive covenants if the firm’s CEO has a higher portion of stock compensation to the total compensation. It implies that creditors view that the increase in the use of option compensation would increase the credit risk of the firm, while the increase in the use of stock compensation would decrease the credit risk. This research also investigates the relation between the CEO option compensation and some specific financial covenants. The finding shows that the use of liquidity covenant and minimum net worth covenant is positively related to the CEO option compensation.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA
Na década de noventa, no Brasil, havia uma predominância de empresas verticalizadas no setor elétrico, pertencentes aos governos estaduais e federais, que no decorrer do processo de reestruturação e privatização sofreram uma desverticalização das suas atividades, em geração, transmissão, distribuição e comercialização. Após iniciada a privatização das companhias foi criada a Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL),responsável por regular as atividades do setor elétrico brasileiro. Estas mudanças acarretaram em diferentes modelos de mercado caracterizados pelo acentuado uso dos sistemas de transmissão. Neste cenário, foi definido pela ANEEL que as concessionárias de distribuição devem pagar às transmissoras pela utilização de suas instalações o Encargo de Uso do Sistema de Transmissão (EUST). Para isso, é necessário informar o Montante de Uso do Sistema de Transmissão (MUST) para cada ponto de conexão e período tarifário por meio do Contrato de Uso do Sistema de Transmissão (CUST). Em caso de ultrapassagem dos valores firmados neste contrato acima de um percentual estipulado, a contratante terá que pagar uma penalidade. Esta dissertação tem por finalidade apresentar uma nova metodologia na determinação do valor ótimo do MUST, baseado em equivalentes estáticos flexíveis, fluxo de potência probabilístico e técnicas de otimização estocástica de modo a equilibrar o custo do transporte de energia e o custo da penalidade. Primeiro, utiliza-se uma técnica de redução de rede, flexível e precisa. Segundo, as incertezas provenientes das cargas, geração e topologia da rede são mapeadas nos pontos de conexão em análise. Terceiro, utiliza-se uma técnica simples de otimização estocástica para obter o MUST a ser contratado, pela distribuidora de energia elétrica, em cada barra de fronteira. Por último, a metodologia proposta é empregada no sistema acadêmico IEEE RTS com o objetivo de demonstrar a sua eficiência sendo os resultados obtidos amplamente discutidos.
In Brazil, during the 1990s, there was a predominance of vertical companies in the electricity sector, belonging to the state and federal governments, which in the course of the restructuring and privatization process suffered a deverticalization of their activities into generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization. After the beginning of this privatization process, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) was created, which is responsible for regulating the activities of the Brazilian electricity sector. These changes have led to different market models characterized by the strong use of the transmission systems. In this scenario, it was defined by ANEEL that the distribution concessionaires must pay the transmission companies for the use of their equipment. Thus, it is necessary to inform the Transmission System Usage Amount (MUST) for each connection point and tariff period by means of the Transmission System Use Agreement (CUST). In case of exceeding a specified percentage of the contracted amounts, the contractor will have to pay penalties. This dissertation aims to present a new methodology to determine the optimal value of MUST, based on flexible static equivalents, probabilistic power flow, and stochastic optimization techniques, in order to balance the energy transport and penalty costs. First, a flexible and accurate network reduction technique is used. Second, the uncertainties arising from the load, generation, and topology of the network are mapped at the connection points under analysis. Third, a simple stochastic optimization technique is used to obtain the MUST to be contracted by the electric power distributor at each border bus. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in the IEEE RTS academic system in order to demonstrate its efficiency, and the obtained results are widely discussed.

L’objectif général de la présente thèse était d’étudier les effets et les facteurs d’influence des exercices et des programmes d’entraînement consistant en la co-contraction maximale isométrique volontaire (CCMIV) de l’articulation du coude : effet de l’entraînement en CCMIV sur la force explosive (Etude A), influence de l’heure habituelle d’entraînement (Etude B) et de charges additionnelles pendant les CCMIV (Etude C). Les résultats ont montré que 6 semaines d’entraînement en CCMIV peuvent améliorer simultanément la force maximale volontaire des muscles sans altération de la force explosive (Etude A et B) et indépendamment de l’heure habituelle d’entraînement (Etude B). Ces gains de force s’accompagnaient d’une augmentation de l’activité électromyographique des muscles agonistes (Etude A et B). Cependant, les résultats de l’étude B suggèrent que l’entraînement le matin s’accompagne d’un meilleur gain de la force musculaire, masquant ainsi les différences de force entre le matin et le soir. Par ailleurs, l’étude C a montré qu’une charge additionnelle (50% FMV) associée à une CCMIV modifie le pattern d’activation des muscles agonistes-antagonistes : augmentation du niveau d’activation des muscles agonistes et diminution de celui des antagonistes. Par conséquent, un programme d’entraînement en CCMIV avec charge additionnelle devrait comprendre des exercices avec charge pour les fléchisseurs et les extenseurs. De plus, les résultats de l’étude C suggèrent que le concept du fléchisseur équivalent pourrait être appliqué non seulement quand les fléchisseurs agissent comme agonistes mais aussi quand ils agissent comme antagonistes
The aim of the present thesis was to study the effects and the influencing factors during the elbow joint maximal isometric voluntary co-contractions (MIVCC) exercises and training program: effect of the MIVCC training on the explosive force (Study A), influence of the time-of-day at which training was scheduled (Study B) and additional load during MIVCC (Study C). The results showed that six weeks of MIVCC training can simultaneously improve the maximum voluntary force, without altering the explosive force (Study A and B) and independently of the time-of-day at which training was scheduled (Study B). These improvements were accompanied by an increase in electromyography activity of agonist muscles (Study A and B). However, the results of study B suggest that morning training is accompanied by a higher strength improvement, by masking the strength differences between the morning and evening. Furthermore, the study C showed that additional load (50% MVF) associated with MIVCC modifies the activation pattern of the agonist-antagonist muscles: by increasing the activation level of the agonist muscles and decreasing the co-activation level of the antagonist muscles. Therefore, MIVCC training program with additional load should include exercises with load for flexor and extensor muscles. In addition, the results of the study C suggest that the concept of “flexor equivalent” may be applied not only when the flexor muscles acting as agonist but also when they acting as antagonist muscles

Evidence shows that nonbanks, which are now significant participants in the corporate loan market, exploit information gained from lending to trade in public securities. In the first essay, I examine whether these institutions use loan-based information to facilitate merger and acquisition (M&A) deals. I find that firms are more likely to become targets if they borrow from nonbanks rather than banks. Borrowing from a larger number of nonbanks or from those with a sizeable client network also enhances a firm’s acquisition prospects. When nonbanks gain more information about borrowers through loan amendments or multiple loans, the impact of nonbank lending grows stronger. I also identify three channels that might allow nonbanks to exploit loan-based information in the M&A market. In the second essay, I focus on the difference in covenant structure between nonbank loans and bank loans. Previous studies show that loans to riskier borrowers are more likely to have stronger financial covenants in order to mitigate agency problems and conflicts of interest between debt and equity holders. Interestingly, I find that nonbanks loans have fewer, less restrictive financial covenants than commercial banks, all else equal. Although the prior literature shows that banks play an active role in corporate governance following covenant violations, I find that nonbanks are less likely to intervene in borrowers’ decision making in similar circumstances. Nonbank borrowers are significantly more likely than bank clients to experience severe financial distress.

Power systems' planning, particularly in developing countries, faces enormous challenges and problems such as defining the future load growth in the face of uncertainties. Renewable energies are coming to the arena and affecting the planning of power and energy systems. The relation between power generation, transmission, and distribution entities, as well as the need for consolidating the dispersed electric utilities in the isolated regions is a prerequisite for future planning. Plenty of technologies, systems, and contractors are coming off the road while an optimal reliability levels need to be achieved. This chapter attempts to display the most tedious and prominent problems and challenges that face innovating the electric power systems which must be based on two major factors, namely reliability and cost. This chapter will help in drafting a new contracting style that mitigate obstacles that face power systems planners and concerned agencies while planning and operating electric power facilities.

Piezoelectric stick–slip actuators have become viable candidates for precise positioning and precise metering due to simple structure and long stroke. To improve the performances of the piezoelectric stick–slip actuators, our team deeply studies the actuators from both structural designs and driving methods. In terms of structural designs, the trapezoid-type, asymmetrical flexure hinges and mode conversion piezoelectric stick–slip actuators are proposed to improve the velocity and load based on the asymmetric structure; besides, a piezoelectric stick–slip actuator with a coupled asymmetrical flexure hinge mechanism is also developed to achieve the bidirectional motion. In terms of driving methods, a non-resonant mode smooth driving method (SDM) based on ultrasonic friction reduction is first proposed to restrain the backward motion during the rapid contraction stage. Then, a resonant mode SDM is further developed to improve the output performance of the piezoelectric stick–slip actuator. On this basis, the low voltage and symmetry of the SDM are also discussed. Finally, the direction-guidance hybrid method (DGHM) excitation method is presented to achieve superior performance, especially for high speed.

Shape memory alloy (SMA) knitted actuators are a type of functional fabric that uses shape memory alloy wire as an active fiber within a knitted textile. Through intentional design of the SMA knitted actuator geometry, various two- and three-dimensional actuation motions, such as scrolling and contraction [1], can be accomplished. Contractile SMA knitted actuators leverage the unique thermo-mechanical properties of SMA wires by integrating them within the hierarchical knitted structure to achieve large distributed uniaxial contractions and variable stiffness behavior upon thermal actuation. During the knit manufacturing process, the SMA wire is bent into a network of interlacing adjacent loops, storing potential energy within the contractile SMA knitted actuator. Thermal actuation above the wire-specific austenite finish temperature leads to a partial recovery of the bending deformations, resulting in large distributed uniaxial contraction (15–40% actuation contraction observed) of the SMA knitted actuator. The achievable load capacity and %-actuation contraction are dependent on the geometric loop parameters of the contractile SMA knitted actuator. While exact descriptions of the geometric loop parameters exist, a reduction of the geometric complexity is advantageous for high-level contractile SMA knitted actuator design procedures. This paper defines a simple geometric measure, the non-dimensional knit density, and experimentally correlates the contractile SMA knitted actuator performance to this measure. The experimentally demonstrated dependency of relevant actuator metrics on the knit density and the wire diameter, suggests the usability of the simplified geometry definition for a high-level contractile SMA knitted actuator design.

Despite active research, the mechanism by which urine is transported from the kidneys into the urinary bladder remains unclear. In general, the ureteral flow is not purely peristaltic and includes a component which depends on the pressure difference between the renal pelves and the urinary bladder. Thus reflux might be caused by an increase in the pressure inside the bladder. Reflux may result in the ingress of bacteria and toxins from the bladder into the renal pelves and then into the kidneys [1]. In the absence of peristalsis, the ureter behaves as a non-uniform passively distensible tube and the flow through it may be taken as approximately steady. The problem of correctly modeling the smooth muscle of the ureter (like that of many other organs: esophagus, bowels, seminal duct, etc.) is to a large extent unsolved [2,3]. The rate of contraction of the muscle depends on the load against which it is contracting as well as on its current geometry and its state of activation, and that load consists largely of the hydrodynamic (viscous) forces required to move the urine.

The lymphatic vasculature extends through most tissues of the body and plays an essential role in maintaining fluid balance, immune cell trafficking, and lipid transport. Nearly all dietary lipid is transported from the intestine to the circulation via the lymphatic system in the form of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins called chylomicrons. This process can be described through two different mechanisms: 1) entry of the chylomicron into the initial lymphatic vessels of the small intestine, known as lacteals, and 2) the transport of these chylomicrons through the larger collecting lymphatics by a complex and coordinated system of individual contracting vessel units (lymphangions) and valve leaflets. We describe here a set of in vitro and in vivo tools we have developed to study the mechanisms that modulate lipid transport under these two different paradigms and show how these tools are uncovering important biological features involved in these mechanisms. Lymphatic pump function is known to be sensitive to the mechanical load on the vessel as the contractility of isolated vessels has been shown to be both shear and stretch sensitive [1], yet whether these mechanisms are important in regulating contractile function in vivo remains uncertain.

Abstract Transmission members such as gears and linkages are ubiquitously used in mechatronic systems to tailor the performance of actuators. However, in most bio-inspired soft systems the actuation and transmission members are closely integrated, and sometimes indistinguishable. Embedded actuation is greatly advantageous for attaining high stroke and transferring large output forces. This paper attempts at a systematic synthesis of compliant systems with embedded contractile actuators and passive members to achieve a particular kinematic objective. The paper builds on recent understanding of a compliant mechanism topology where the constituent members can be functionally classified as load transferring transmitters and strain energy storing constraints. The functional equivalence between the transmitter members and actuators are used to replace transmitters in tension with contractile actuators, thus realizing a compliant embedded system. Once a single-input single-output compliant mechanism is designed, and its load flow behavior mapped, systematic guidelines and best practices are established for embedding actuators within the topology to increase performance without altering the kinematic behavior. Several examples, including a prototype that used soft pneumatic artificial muscles is presented to validate the synthesis framework. The initial results will form the basis for designing fully autonomous compliant systems with embedded actuators and sensors without the use of computationally expensive techniques.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor