Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Libyan economy'

The implicit aim in this kind of study, especially within developing countries, is to provide a tool that allows an economic decision maker to stand on solid ground and to reduce the problems that arise from the stochastic decisions in such countries. One of most effective tools, in this regard, is the econometric model. Accordingly, in pursuit of achieving this aim, this study constructed a small econometric model for the Libyan economy with a view to assessing the existing and alternative economic policies, specifically fiscal and monetary policies, and then aimed to explore their transmission mechanisms and interaction. Therefore, the model is designed to capture the main characteristics of the economy whilst also exploiting the developments in economic theory and econometric analytical tools. The model consists of six blocks, namely, the aggregate demand, the aggregate supply, the balance of payments, the government, the monetary, and the price. The model has been estimated utilizing time-series data spanning the period from 1970 to 2006. Also, the single equation of the model was estimated by using the ‘Gets’ technique which involves the formulation of a ‘general’ unrestricted model ‘GUM’ that is congruent with the data and the application of a ‘testing down’ process, eliminating variables with coefficients that are not statistically significant leading to a simpler ‘specific’ congruent model that encompasses rival models. This step achieves the first objective of the use of econometric models which is the structural analysis. In addition, this study has carried out the remaining two objectives of econometric studies, namely forecasting and policy analysis. Accordingly, in order to fulfil this aim the model of the study has been solved as a whole, simultaneously using the dynamic simulation technique. It is evident from the dynamic simulation of the model that the model’s performance is, generally, quite satisfactory, whereby the model tracking behaviour clarified a good fit, and this is realized for most of the equations which performed much better than would be expected for a model of a developing country such as Libya. The evaluation of the forecast accuracy of the model using the (MAPE), (RMSPE), and the Theil inequality coefficient (U) asserted the relatively good performance of the model. The simulations’ experiments in this study have evaluated the potential influences of the two major policy options, fiscal policy and monetary policy. As expected, with regard to the analysis of the monetary policy scenario and compared with the fiscal policy scenario, it can be concluded that monetary policy is less efficient compared to fiscal policy, according to this proposed model for the analysis of economic policy in Libya. In addition, also, it is evident that fiscal policy should play a key role in the management of the Libyan economy and the role of monetary policy should be confined to supporting fiscal policy.

The study analyses the key motives and determinants of FDI in various sectors of the Libyan economy. It compares the results for the different sectors to determine how the policy of the Libyan government could be improved in order to increase the benefits for the government and the country. A new framework was developed for this research. A qualitative methodology using multiple case studies was employed. The case study companies comprised eight companies from four sectors. The four sectors were compared and contrasted using Porter's five forces model. The analysis of the eight companies had two stages: "within" and "cross-cases" analyses. Data were gathered through in depth, semi-structured interviews with foreign and local company managers, and government policy makers. The study also uses data collected from secondary sources such as company websites, documents and government reports. The empirical findings reveal the existence of a core of motives and determinants of FDI in Libya that are common for all parties across all sectors. This finding is surprising in relation to the similarity across sectors. This might be explained by the uniform government policy over a relatively stagnant forty-year period. These factors are: market size and growth, high return on investment and investment incentives, political stability, infrastructure and low transportation costs, business and industrial linkages, progress of privatisation, institutions, culture and attractive geographic location. The sector-specific and actor-specific determinants are however less important than the common ones. In terms of obstacles to FDI, bureaucratic red tape, infrastructure in terms of Internet, telephone, and the banking system inhibit FDI inflows in all contexts. The findings of this study showed also the critical role of the Libyan government in facilitating the process of FDI. This is probably the first study to incorporate both host government and foreign investors' views about motives and determinants of FDI.

The Libyan economy is highly dependent on oil export revenues, which allied to a small population, makes Libya one of the richest countries in Africa. In order to diversify its sources of income, the government undertook measures to liberalise its economy and foreign trade. The central strategy of enhancing trade and developing the Libyan economy is to integrate with the EU by taking a pro-active part in EU-initiated economic cooperation and integration programmes and treaties, such as the Barcelona Process. This process constitutes an important step towards enhancing the openness of Libya’s economy and creating convergence towards EU economies. The research explores the perceptions of Libyan businessmen on the economic and trade relationship between Libya and the EU by focusing directly on trends, developments, problems and prospects. The research also aims to explore problems encountered between Libya and the EU with the objective of establishing ways in which to lessen the adverse effects. It suggests policy measures to be adopted to improve Libya’s trade and economic relations with the EU. To fulfil its aims and objectives, this study utilised both primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected through a survey questionnaire conducted in Libya, which explored the opinions, perceptions and attitudes of Libyan businessmen towards trade-related issues with the EU. In addition, the secondary data were in the form of published statistical data relating to trade between Libya and the EU. The findings of this study demonstrated that the majority of Libyan businessmen have positive attitude towards economic cooperation and the integration process between Libya and the EU within the EU-Mediterranean Partnership (Barcelona Process) in general, and towards the establishment of FTA in particular. In addition, the majority of Libyan businessmen think that achievements in the economic field were the most successful policy aims within the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, while perceiving the political and military and security fields to be of a minor role. However, the majority consider that trade between Libya and EU still faces a number of obstacles, despite Libya joining the Barcelona Process. These include the high price of EU products, the difference in terms of quality, and the adoption of high customs duties on EU products by the Libyan authorities and the lack of information about the opportunities available in EU markets. The study, also, finds that the majority of Libyan businessmen see the future of Libyan economy tied closely to the EU, rather than in an African, Arab or Islamic Union, in which they show little interest.

The theory of resource dependence captures the extent to which a country’s economy relies on resource rents. It is usually measured in proportion to GDP, exports, or government revenues; hence, it is a function of absolute levels of resource extraction and rent capture in the context of other economic activity and sources of state revenue. This study has focused on the efforts to date by Libya to diversify its economic base. The resource dependence observed in Libya’s economy is driven mainly by the fact that there are relatively few alternative forms of economic activity, as evidenced by a per capita gap in GDP, or a low level of other exports. The state’s fiscal reliance on revenues from the extractive industries also depends on the size of other revenue streams. Yet, Libya has been unable to adequately distribute its GDP across a wide range of productive sectors. This concern highlights the earlier awareness to the risks of oil resource depletion which could compromise the future of the Libyan economy. In-depth interviews, and semi-structured questionnaire data analysis were carried out to obtain an actual view of the respondent’s perception. The study found that to achieve its objective of sustainability, Libya will need to ensure natural resources continue to be managed efficiently into the future. This may require some policy adjustments. First, diversifying the economy towards higher value-added tasks in manufacturing and services requires renewed emphasis on the structural reform agenda, as well as enhancements to public investment management. These will create the necessary conditions for accelerate productive investments in non-commodity sectors. The formation and the implementation of the policy were consistent with the analysis suggested by literature review. A series of recommendation to improve on the policy was made based on the analysis of the problems indicated and based on suggestions from respondents.

L’économie libanaise est confrontée à un paradoxe. D’une part, elle est très dépendante de l’apport des capitaux étrangers pour financer sa croissance et créer les emplois de demain. D’autre part, elle a du mal à attirer sur son sol les capitaux étrangers qui privilégient souvent d’autres destinations, y compris dans le bassin méditerranéen au Moyen-Orient. L’objectif de notre travail consiste dans un premier temps à identifier les déterminants des stratégies d’implantation des entreprises étrangères au Liban en mettant l’accent sur ceux qui favorisent ou, au contraire, repoussent les flux d'IDE. Dans un deuxième temps, notre objectif est de définir les déterminants sur lesquels se basent les firmes étrangères dans le choix de leur emplacement sur le territoire libanais. Pour ce faire, nous avons conduit une démarche de recherche en deux étapes : Une première phase a été consacrée à la revue de la littérature théorique et empirique sur les déterminants de la localisation des IDE. Au vu de la rareté des travaux consacrés au Moyen-Orient et particulièrement au Liban, une deuxième phase a été menée avec une approche qualitative et interprétativiste. Les données empiriques ont été recueillies au moyen d’une enquête réalisée auprès de 18 personnes. Dans cette étude, nous avons observé que les facteurs de l’internationalisation des entreprises étrangères au Liban dépassent les déterminants classiques de la littérature théorique. Ces facteurs s’articulent principalement autour de la confiance, de la religion, de la proximité culturelle, de la situation politique, de la qualité des institutions, etc. Enfin, nos résultats nous ont permis d’affiner la teneur de la théorie de référence sur les déterminants des stratégies d’implantation des entreprises étrangères au regard du contexte du Liban
The Lebanese economy encounters a paradox. On one hand, in pursuance of financing its growth and in order to create future jobs, it became quite dependent on foreign capital contributions. And on the other hand, it’s facing a difficulty of attracting foreign capitals that rather prefer other destinations than Lebanon, including the Mediterranean basin in the Middle East. Our research objective consists of firstly identifying the determinants of Implementation strategies of foreign companies in Lebanon, by focusing on those who favor or rather delay the FDI flows. And our consecutive objective is to define the determinants on which foreign companies base their choice of emplacement on Lebanese territories.In order to execute this research and achieve these objectives, we divided our work into two stages:The first stage was devoted to the theoretical and empirical review of the determinants of the location of FDI, the data of this stage was collected by conducting a survey on 18 people. The second stage, which is an interpretative approach, was carried out due to the lack of researches on the Middle East and particularly on Lebanon. Through this study we observed that the factors of internationalization of foreign companies in Lebanon exceed the classical determinants of the theoretical literature. These factors are distinctly concentrated around trust, religion, cultural juxtaposition, political situation, institution levels, etc. At last, our results allowed us to enhance the content of the reference theory on the determinants of the implementation strategies of foreign companies in view of the Lebanese context

This thesis develops a conceptual framework of the drivers and barriers to e-commerce adoption in developing countries such as Libya. One of the main drivers of economic development is technology. Technology adoption usually results in rapid economic growth, and rapid economic growth is usually accompanied by rapid structural change. It is now widely accepted by policy makers that e-commerce is at the centre of an economic and social transformation that is affecting all countries. E-commerce creates new economic and social landscapes. E-commerce enables producers in developing-country to overcome traditional business limitations. The research process involves a mixed research approach. Firstly, 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted involving decision makers, government officials, managers and general employees regarding e-commerce and economic development in Libya. Secondly, a questionnaire was distributed across a population of 150 Libyan Internet users on a face-to-face basis. There are many drivers and barriers to the adoption of e-commerce. Most issues (competition, cost, employment, economic development, government, infrastructure, legislation and regulation, payment system) could be drivers or barriers. These issues created the theoretical framework. All issues were examined in Libya, the research findings confirmed the effects of these issues on e-commerce adoption. Moreover, the research findings resulted in an amended theoretical framework by introducing two new issues (knowledge and security). Additionally, the literature on e-commerce drivers and barriers issues has been expanded. The thesis concludes with a plan of action to assist Libya’s government on e-commerce adoption. The plan of action is driven by four main actors (Government, technologically advanced countries, companies and e-commerce users). These four actors and the plan of action comprise the three-quarter moon model that encourages the fourth actor (e-commerce users) to complete the circle of adoption. The thesis concludes that the three-quarter moon model can be generalized to other developing countries and proposes a classification model for e-commerce adoption along with a formula of Internet involvement. The classification model classifies countries according to their technological advancement. The new classification groups countries into non-technologically advanced, less-technologically advanced and technologically advanced.

The social and economic environments of developing countries differ from those of liberal market economies of the developed countries, and the differences are reflected in the accounting disclosure practices. Recent years have shown an increased attention paid by accounting research to Corporate Social Responsibility and Disclosure which is recognized as having the potential to enhance the transparency of business enterprises’ social influence, enabling the wider society to hold business enterprises more accountable for their operations. Corporate Social Responsibility and Disclosure practices in most developing countries remain fairly rudimentary and relatively few studies have focused on the corporate social responsibility disclosure practices in such countries. The aim of this study is to investigate corporate social responsibility disclosure in Libyan companies’ annual reporting in the light of the country’s economic, social and political environment. In particular, it seeks to map current corporate social disclosure in annual reports and to understand various parties’ views of that practice and its possible future development. To achieve the aim and particular objectives of the study it was necessary to utilise more than one research method. Firstly, a descriptive method is used to provide an overview of accounting and its environment in a developing country, and the economic, social and political environment in Libya. Secondly, empirical evidence covering a five year period across a sample of private and public companies in Libyan environment is presented using content analysis to analyse the companies’ annual reports. Finally, an empirical survey by personally delivered and collected questionnaire of 303 participants in four groups of research participants (academic accountants, financial managers, government officials and investors) was performed to explore the views and perceptions regarding corporate social reporting in Libya. The content analysis showed that Libyan companies generally disclose some information related to social responsibility. However, the amount of information is low compared with counterparts in developed countries. Employee and community involvement are the themes that the companies disclose most information about. The findings from the questionnaire survey indicate that participants preferred social information to be disclosed in the annual report, ideally placed in a separate section. The disclosure of more social and environmental information was widely accepted and viewed as leading to some socioeconomic benefits at the macro level.

Macroecometric models are extremely important for developing countries as well as for developed countries. They can help and guide planners, policy makers and government leaders to establish priorities in their activities and to chose those policies which permit the most the rapid advance of economic development. The aim of this thesis is to construct a macroeconometric model for the Libyan economy and to use the model to forecast future economic activities under different scenarios. The Background of the Libyan economy is outlined first. Brief reviews of the theory of the background to the model components are given in the first part of the thesis. The specification of the model equations, depending on the economic theory and estimation procedures are carried out in the second part of the thesis. The calculations are carried out with a TSP package. Model validation is carried out in the third part of the thesis. This includes model evaluation (tracking performance and dynamic properties) and multiplier analysis. Model implications, such as forecasting (Ex-Post and Ex-Ante) are described in the last part of the thesis. Two different scenarios are considered. These scenarios explore the effects of different sets of oil prices and production on the Libyan economy, for the period 1996-2005. Several policy implications are derived from the results of the scenarios. The conclusion reached is that the Libyan economy is heavily dependent on Oil Revenues and any shock in this variable will have great effects on the Libyan economy. Also, excessive government spending is the main reason for the high inflation rate, which also leads to the crowding out of private investment.

Dans sa substance, cette thèse se situe au point de rencontre de deux disciplines proches mais distinctes : l'économie et la gestion. Plus précisément, en nous appuyant sur les acquis de notre formation académique et sur ceux de notre parcours professionnel, nous avons concentré notre effort de recherche sur une approche qui consiste à mobiliser les concepts de la gestion stratégique au profit d'une réflexion économique traitant de la problématique du développement territorial durable dans une région montagneuse du Liban, en l'occurrence Kfardebian-Faraya. Compte tenu de la montée des préoccupations environnementales et du souci écologique croissant, une grande importance est accordée un peu partout, aujourd'hui, au mode de valorisation des ressources naturelles, notamment celles qui ne sont pas renouvelables ou, en tout cas, qui sont considérées comme telles. Le tourisme, on le sait, occupe désormais une place centrale dans l'économie de plusieurs pays en développement, parmi lesquels le Liban (où il représente, certaines années, plus de 30% du PIB). Toutefois, au-delà de ses apports indéniables en termes de production, d'emplois, de revenus, etc., la dynamique touristique au Liban rencontre des limites situées autant aux niveaux économique et social qu'au niveau environnemental. Ces limites sont dues principalement, selon nous, à un mode de gestion des ressources locales irrationnel (pour ne pas dire irresponsable), ainsi qu'à une absence ou une quasi-absence de règles pour encadrer l'action des professionnels du tourisme et des autres acteurs qui interviennent, d'une façon ou d'une autre, dans le fonctionnement de cette activité. A travers les analyses exposées dans cette thèse, notre effort a consisté à défendre le bien-fondé du principe de la gestion stratégique comme mode de valorisation des ressources, l'objectif étant, dans notre cas d'étude comme dans d'autres, un développement territorial durable, intégrant les dimensions économique, sociale et environnementale, et reposant sur l'action collective de tous les acteurs locaux. Dans cette optique, le terrain d'analyse empirique que nous avons retenu, celui de Kfardebian-Faraya, nous a semblé particulièrement intéressant : non seulement ce territoire situé au Mont-Liban peut, à juste titre, être caractérisé comme zone touristique spécialisée, mais en outre, certains professionnels du tourisme qui exercent dans cette zone (la société Mzaar qui gère la station de ski de Mzaar, l'hôtel Intercontinental Mzaar, le village de Faqra Club…) se sont engagés dans une démarche de gestion stratégique (autrement dit, durable) des ressources qu'ils exploitent. Les résultats obtenus au terme de notre recherche montrent que l'extension du niveau de l'entreprise (niveau microéconomique) à celui du territoire (niveau mésoéconomique) de la notion de gestion stratégique des ressources est d'une réelle pertinence. Dans le cadre d'un projet de territoire intégrant les dimensions économique, sociale et environnementale, et mobilisant les différents acteurs locaux jouant pleinement le jeu de l'action collective, cette approche est de nature à favoriser une dynamique de développement territorial durable. Dans le cas précis de Kfardebian-Faraya, cette dynamique ne peut avoir lieu qu'avec le pilotage des deux municipalités qui, en tant qu'acteur pivot, sont à même de promouvoir une gouvernance participative à l'échelle du territoire
In its essence, it is situated at the point of encounter between two close but distinct disciplines; economics and management. More specifically, based on our academic background, and career, we focused our research efforts on mobilizing the concepts of strategic management for the benefit of an economic reflection dealing with the issue of sustainable territorial development in a mountainous region of Lebanon, namely the case of Kfardebian-Faraya. Taking into consideration the growth of environmental concerns and ecological anxiety, great importance is given ubiquitously, today, to the mode of utilization of natural resources, particularly those exhaustive or, in any case, considered as such. As generally known, tourism occupies a central position in the economy of many developing countries; Lebanon is not an exception, where it represents, in some years, more than 30% of the GDP. However, beyond its undeniable contributions in terms of production, employment, income, etc., the tourism dynamics in Lebanon revealed some drawbacks at economic, social and environmental levels. These limits are due mainly, in our opinion, to an irrational (not to say irresponsible) approach of managing local resources, as well as to a relative absence of rules that govern the performance of tourism professionals and the other players involved, in a way or another, in this activity. Through the analysis presented in this thesis, our effort has been to defend the principle of strategic management as a relevant mode of exploitation of local available resources, the aim being, in our case study as in others, a sustainable territorial development, integrating the economic, social and environmental dimensions, and based on the joint efforts of all local players. In this context, the field of empirical analysis that we have chosen, Kfardebian-Faraya, seemed to be particularly interesting; not only that this territory is located in Mount-Lebanon and characterized as a specialized touristic zone, but also, some tourism professionals present on this territory (Mzaar company that manages the ski station Mzaar, the Hotel Intercontinental Mzaar, the Village of Faqra Club...) are engaged in a process of strategic management (considered sustainable) of local resources. The results reached at the end of our research show that extending the concept of strategic management of resources from the enterprise level (micro-level) to the territory level (meso level) is of real relevance. As part of a territory project, integrating the economic, social and environmental dimensions, and integrating the different local players in a collective process of management, is a conductive approach to dynamism and sustainable territorial development. In the specific case of Kfardebian- Faraya, this dynamism may take place only under the guidance of the two municipalities which, as a fundamental actor, are able to promote participatory governance across the territory

This research is an empirical analysis of trade led growth of Libya during 1963-2008. Overall objective of this research is to investigate the role of international trade on Libya’s economy through reviewing various phases of economic growth in Libya starting from 1963. During this period, Libyan economy has undergone various structural changes. Not only has oil been one of its main exporting commodities, but also earnings from this sector of the Libyan economy have been credited with high growth rates experienced in the country. The research comprise of five specific objectives of which four require empirical justification. The non-empirical objective of the research is to obtain a trade profile of Libya. The empirical objectives include the analysis of relationship between trade and economic growth of Libya with and without incorporating the role of trade partners and the development of import demand in Libya with and without incorporating expenditure component. Results of the research showed that Libya is significantly dependent on international trade with countries of European Union; however, feedback effect from these countries is low. Mostly, Libya depends on the trade partners to cover the import demand. Import demand of the country is determined via price level instead of the income of the country. The only expenditure in Libya out of household consumption, government consumption, and investment, investment has sing incant effect on the price level. Therefore, for Libya to receive tread led growth, the country should employ such policies that favour total investment.

Large increases in water demand with very little recharge have strained Libya’s groundwater resources, resulting in serious declines in water levels and quality, especially along the Mediterranean coast where most of the agricultural, domestic and industrial activities are concentrated. To meet these increases, Libya turned to desalination as a supplementary water resource as early as 1964. Both thermal and membrane desalination technologies have been used. This study shows that the problem of water scarcity is likely to increase further in the future. This study has three aims: first, to estimate the historical relationship between population growth and the various uses of water; second, to forecast water consumption according to the various uses; third, to estimate the elasticities of water demand and examine the effect of price, income, population and temperature on water demand in Libya in the short and long-run. To achieve these aims, an econometric model of Libyan water demand is constructed and estimated for the period 1975-2005, using the Box-Jenkins approach to forecast water demand and the Engle-Granger two-step approach to estimate the short and long-run elasticities of water demand. As a result this study provides considerable information for policy makers concerning current and future Libyan water demand. By examining the relationships between population growth and the future consumption of water in Libya, it is possible to reach the following conclusions. • Population growth in Libya will be very high. • Population elasticities for water demand are elastic for agricultural, domestic and industrial purposes. Water demand for all purposes is extremely elastic. • Most of the population and agricultural lands are concentrated in the northern part of the country. • The Libyan economy depends heavily on underground water. • In Libya, as a whole, water demand will increase. Available water in 2020 will be less than half of water demands, implying an increase in the water scarcity problem over time. • The short and long-run price elasticties are negative, suggesting that there is an inverse relationship between water demands and price. Also, these elasticities indicate that water use is generally inelastic with respect to price. • The income elasticities are all positive in the short and long-run. This result accords with demand theory, implying that water is a normal good. • The estimation results suggest that, in the long-run, water demand for agricultural, domestic and industrial use is highly elastic for population and inelastic for price and income. • The short-run elasticities are less than the long-run elasticities, as economic theory suggests. Also, all elasticities in the short-run are less than one. This implies that water demand is inelastic in the short-run.

The thesis provides an integrated approach to tourism development within a destination (in this case Libya) that is currently suffering from lack of both short and long term investment due to an extremely uncertain political and social environment. The influences are both internal and external and could be classed as a ‘perfect storm’ affecting the country. The thesis identifies the stages of development, and those responsible for development by using an adapted butler model. It then suggests potential interventions at stages within the development, and ways in which the industry can respond quickly to the ever-changing environment of both investment and capacity building. The responses are based within the concept E-Marketing; a broad term but a modern approach to marketing that can respond quickly to changing environmental conditions. The thesis asserts that with these new methodologies the uncertainty element within a destination can be somewhat negated by the ability of the tourism industry to respond quickly both to market and de-market a destination. The suggestion is that for the foreseeable future tourism development in Libya will always be in a transitional period. The why for the thesis is because tourism has the potential to generate sizeable revenues within the Middle East and Africa, but has always suffered from significant underinvestment and varying levels of development. Libya has tourism development potential, and the thesis outlines the large number of tourist areas and unique attractions. To understand the current position of Libya in touristic terms an exploratory, qualitative, cross-sectional research strategy was adopted based on interviews with Libya stakeholders, Muslims consumers and country case analysis. The theoretical framework draws on contemporary marketing and e-Marketing theory intersecting development theory and destination management theory to investigate the role of e-Marketing. The key findings indicate that e-marketing represents a diverse toolbox that can be brought to bear in a highly integrated and focused approach that in itself becomes a source of competitive advantage. A technology-enabled e-marketing driven tourism framework provides Libya with the capacity to de-market its tourism programme, combined with the ability to reposition geographically and respond to crises caused by civil unrest. e - ii - Marketing systems provide significant potential to establish highly resilient and available infrastructures and the creation of a virtual space for planning management and tourism marketing. Critically, this thesis suggests tourism development is not wholly constrained by fragmented and transitional context. E-Marketing can counter physical and geographical constraints to facilitate diverse forms of information, communication, knowledge transfer and collaboration that enable creative forms of financing and resourcing and product development. The interconnectedness of e-Marketing processes and systems and the links between diverse actors, and institutions reflects in essence an ecosystem that is significant in allowing countries in transition to develop in highly dynamic and responsive approach. There is thus the substantial potential for the model proposed to progressively mobilise collective action, market knowledge and engagement that is critical for transitional economies.

The Libyan economy relies heavily on increasing oil revenues, which may deteriorate with a future oil price decline. The Libyan economy performed as well as resource poor countries over the past few decades. The oil booms of 1973 and 1979 brought unprecedented income to Libya but, despite the substantial oil revenues, much of the potential benefit of the windfall has been dissipated. Libya relies heavily on oil receipts, the price of which tends to fluctuate widely in the international market. Also, the Libyan economy is dominated by hydrocarbons and the public sector. Sizeable oil wealth has supported a decent living standard for Libya's population, and socio-economic development compares favourably with standards in other Middle Eastern and North African countries. Libya has the potential to raise oil production and revenues significantly in coming years, given its large reserve. The reliance of public finance on a single sector means that shocks threaten the economy's fiscal balance and stability. Libya has over-consumed in response to windfalls from surges in world prices. Libyan government spending has outstripped the gain in revenues. These sharp increases in government spending are difficult to reverse when the boom ends and often lead to large fiscal deficits rather than surplus. However, the main challenge for Libya is to promote growth of the non-oil sector and spur diversification of its economy. Non-hydrocarbon GDP growth has been weak and oil revenue volatility has been transmitted to non-hydrocarbon GDP. Weak non-oil GDP growth reflects both insufficient private investment and low productivity of capital importing efficiency. Productivity growth is a precondition for faster growth and greater investment effort. Strong productivity growth is also a prerequisite for competitive diversification out of hydrocarbon. Projected high oil revenue will provide the finance for growth but will not necessarily spur sustained growth in the non-oil sector. Overoptimistic predictions of future oil revenues are shown to have seriously adverse consequences, particularly if the non-oil economy adjusts to falling demand through underdevelopment and capital flight is provoked. Policy options for protecting the economy from volatility in oil revenues, without eliminating the benefits from rising prices include the formation of a stabilization fund and hedging strategies in the international markets. The stabilization fund would smooth consumption and reduce the costs associated with volatile spending. Libya needs sound economic management and to address the problems associated with oil windfalls. Market processes are required to help allocate public resources, and governments and others responsible must take account of risk and uncertainty when selecting projects, and formulating plans for development. Consequently, there is a macroeconomic need to diversify the economy to avoid the pitfalls which so often plague developing countries with vast natural resources. The decisions concerning public investment in a social economic infrastructure would be better if unconnected to the presence of hydrocarbon windfalls. To speed up non-oil growth and job creation, the oil windfalls should be used strategically, with the aim of facilitating the transition to a competitive, market-led economy. Over the long-term, the intermediation of hydrocarbon windfalls through the household and business sectors might produce superior long-term growth, but it should go in tandem with considerable strengthening of the investment climate. Enhancing the quality of Libya's human resources will also be essential to improve productivity and diversify out of oil - especially into services - and compete in the global economy. Improving the quality of governance deserves particular attention, because it underlies the development reform agenda. Libya would probably have seen a larger benefit from its windfalls had it saved a higher proportion abroad and limited domestic investment through applying market criteria more rigorously. Quite clearly, good fiscal control of periodic boom episodes enables the boom to temporarily accelerate the rate of economic development. In addition, such questions as the magnitude of the windfalls, how Libya has used them and their impact on non-oil a sector have been addressed in this research. The adoption of sound economic policies and the good management of oil windfall gains will allow Libya to continuously manage growth and become one of the greatest success stories of all developing countries.

It is widely recognised that the construction industry has a positive role to accelerate the wheel of economic growth in any country. This research is concerned with the Libyan construction industry (LCI). Libya is a developing country which suffered from a big loss in its infrastructures and its unemployment rate increased to 30% in the middle of 2013. Regarding the importance of the construction industry through the role it has in providing infrastructure and creating employment and the poor economic condition of Libya, the rationale of this research follows the example of other nations such as Turkey, Singapore, Malaysia , and Middle East countries where the construction industry was evolved with a target to further boost up the process of economic development. The case of Libya in this regard is valid for the financial stability in the country given its oil reserves and the capacity of the country to absorb migrated skilled labour. This situation is expected to follow the fall of Gaddafi’s regime. The approach of selecting construction as providing input to economic growth follows the strong evidence of the significant role that the construction industry plays in economic growth of the country. The construction industry contributes to economic growth from the demand side and in the traditional Keynesian economy, sustainable short-run economic growth is dependent on the increased demand. For example, in the UK, construction’s 2.5% growth in the third quarter of 2013 helped the overall economy grow by 0.8% over the same period. In comparison with the other industries that contribute to the economic growth of developing countries, the construction industry is more labour-intensive while the developing countries are mostly labour-abundant. The main aim of this research is to investigate the contribution of the construction industry to economic development in order to establish a comprehensive list of recommendations and a guideline for achieving an efficient construction industry to accelerate the process of economic growth. For this aim, the first objective is to examine the causal relationship between the construction industry and gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of the economic growth and between the construction industry and other economic sectors. To achieve the aim of this research, Granger causality tests have been conducted. The financial data about the expenditure on the construction industry in Libya and its share in the GDP of the country and the share of the other economic sectors in the GDP during 1986-2009 was provided by an authority from the Libyan construction industry. First, The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and the Philip Perron (PP) unit root tests were conducted to confirm that the tested time series are stationary. After that, to determine the existence of the long-run causal relationship between the CI and GDP, Engle-Granger co-integration test was used and, finally, vector error correction (VER) model was employed to detect the direction of the causal relationship between the two variables. The study found that in Libya, like in other countries, the relationship between the construction industry and GDP is bi-directional: GDP produces a short-term impact on the investment in the construction industry while investment in the construction industry produces a long-term impact on GDP. However, except for trade, no economic sector was found to have a causal relationship with the construction industry. According to these findings, another objective was established in this research: to identify safety and total quality management (TQM) which can play an important role in growing the efficiency of the Libyan construction industry. To achieve this objective, telephone conversations were conducted with the officials of the largest construction company in the city of Benghazi. The findings indicated that the TQM does not exist in the construction company and, although the safety department does exist, it works via strict procedures. Thus, opportunity to increase the performance of the CI in order to increase its contribution to economic growth does exist through implementation of the safety and TQM implementation in Licccbyan construction companies. The previous studies used the causal relationship just to prove specific hypotheses. The novelty of this research is to obtain benefits from the existence of the causal relationship from the CI to GDP in the long term through suggesting major issues as safety and TQM implementation to raise the performance of the CI in the current period in order to increase its contribution to the economic growth in the future.

This thesis investigates the social and economic history of slavery in Libya in the period between 1800 and 1950. Focusing on Tripoli and the trading centres of Ghadames and Fezzan, it uses a combination of sources including legal records, travel accounts, commercial correspondence, memoirs and oral interviews to examine the impact of the slave trade, the economic and social lives of the enslaved, and their experiences of emancipation. Examining the trading of slaves in Ghadames, the thesis reveals how merchants considered slaves one commodity among others. It analyses how the slave trade continued until the Italian occupation of Libya in 1911, long after the formal prohibition of the trans-Saharan slave trade in 1856. Despite a long-term decline, caravan trading networks remained somewhat resilient and continued with alternative commodities such as ivory and ostrich feathers. This thesis then moves to analyse the social and economic lives of the enslaved, and the legal status of slavery in Libya. It explores the dynamics of employment, resistance by slaves and master-slave relations by analysing two major categories of slaves, who were treated considerably differently; those who worked in the caravan trade in Ghadames, and those slaves who worked as domestic servants in Tripoli. Many existing sources showed the differences in social relationship between slaves and masters. Different occupational categories, such as caravan workers and domestic servants, had different access to patronage, or experiences of abuse and violence. Oral interviews reveal that slaves in Tripoli experienced less violence compared to those in Ghadames and Fezzan in the nineteenth century. However, mistreated slaves had the right to a court hearing. The court provided a platform for slaves to challenge abuse, with some slaves seeking to push these boundaries further by going to court to assert their rights to better treatment by their owners. The third chapter explores the patterns of religious and economic manumission that existed in Libya before the abolition of slavery, It also traces changes of policies of emancipation that pursued by Ottoman and Italian governments. Finally, the thesis explores the social history of emancipation through examining the economic and social lives of communities of freed slaves. Through surveying a large number of legal cases, the thesis argues that slavery in Libya was marked more by continuities than change across the period of study. The legacy of slavery has persisted over time as relations of clientship between ex-slaves and ex-masters replaced direct relations of ownership. This thesis shows the difficulties faced by slaves in negotiating for clientship (al-wala’) from their former masters. Some ex-slaves unquestionably improved their status with a substantial minority experiencing social mobility as caravan workers and agents, while others remained ill-treated, with irregular work and subsistence wage labour; living on the margins of Libyan society.

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in 2011Q1 will lead to growth of 2% in 2011. Furthermore, my model predicts that a 54% increase in crude oil prices during the second quarter of 2011 will lead the U.S. into a double dip recession.

Lack of knowledge of the effective use of measurement diversity-based systems, especially in developing countries (e.g. Libya), was the core rationale and motivation for this research. Therefore, the key focus of this study is the investigation of the effectiveness of a performance measurement alignment approach which claims that multiple performance measures (MPMs) should be aligned with environmental and organisational contingencies (i.e. business strategy, environmental uncertainty, market competition, decentralisation, formalisation, information technology, company size), in order to improve organisational performance (OP). To capture these relationships in sufficient depth, the theoretical framework of this research was developed based on contingency theory and a wide review of the relevant literature. This framework adopts both selection and mediation-based interaction approaches to contingency fit in order to investigate these contingency relationships. The current study aims to provide an empirical investigation of the effectiveness of MPMs in light of the contingency perspective in a Libyan context. The results of this study were based on cross-sectional questionnaire survey data from 132 Libyan companies (response rate of 61%) and data from face-to-face interviews with financial managers in 10 companies. The research used descriptive statistics, regression analysis, mediation regression analysis via Preacher & Hayes’ (2004) macro, and content analysis. The descriptive analysis indicated that MPMs are commonly used by many Libyan companies, whether manufacturing or non-manufacturing. However, these companies still rely heavily on financial performance measures. The statistical findings revealed that the relationship between FPMs and OP was positive but not significant, whilst relationships between NFPMs and OP, and MPMs and OP were positive and highly significant. They found that, except for “formalisation and market competition”, the remaining contextual factors studied have a significant positive impact on the extent of MPMs usage. The results also reported that MPMs have a core mediating/intervening role in most relationships between the identified contingencies and performance (except for formalisation, market competition and company size). By contrast, the interview-based qualitative results were consistent with most questionnaire-based quantitative results, and they also suggested other reasons for using or non-using MPMs. Overall, both qualitative and quantitative findings are mostly in line with the logic and importance of the context-structure fit, which is regarded as the central proposition of contingency theory. This implies that those contingency factors (e.g. strategy, PEU) are considered as important antecedents of MPMs’ usage, and MPMs’ information is considered as an important antecedent of organisational performance. This thesis introduces a better understanding and explanation of how to use MPMs effectively. It also contributes to the current body of knowledge by providing empirical evidence from an emerging context (i.e. Libya) to support the central proposition of contingency theory claiming that, in this case, enhanced organisational performance requires alignment of the structure with the context. The research concludes that Libyan companies should pay greater attention to environmental and organisational characteristics when adopting and designing measurement diversity-based systems.

The financial liberalisation theorem postulates that liberalising the financial sector is a route to increasing savings and investment, and thus the promotion of growth. Endogenous growth models suggest that financial sector development increases savings mobilisation, transfers savings into investments, and increases the productivity of investment, with the consequence of economic growth and improved economic performance. However, in practice, experience has shown that a number of developing countries do not demonstrate this kind of relationship, and have rather, recorded relatively low growth despite achieving high savings rates. It is argued that the reason why few authors have found empirical evidence supporting the notion that saving causes growth in developing countries, and have found instead that growth causes savings, is these scholars' failure to consider the productivity of investment financed by savings, evidenced by the tendency to use aggregate measures of savings. This work proposes that the quality of saving is important, and instead of using gross saving, financial savings is used as a measure of savings. Despite the implementation of reforms and liberalisation in the financial sector, especially the banking industry, as the major elements of the economic reforms and structural adjustment programmes in Libya in the early 1990s, the resulting improved economic performance has not been followed by sustained economic growth and development, and investment rates are still insufficient to achieve this. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to identify the role of the financial sector, examining the impact of its development on saving, and on the growth of the Libyan economy. The methodology used in this research involved the quantitative approach. The quantitative aspect was based on an empirical assessment of the importance of financial sector development by using time-series econometric techniques including the unit root test, testing for cointegration and causality for the variables of the study. The results indicate that the impact of the real interest rate on financial saving and domestic investment is negative in the long run. The impact of real output on financial savings and domestic investment is positive in the long run. Credit as an indicator of financial sector development, has a very small impact on domestic saving in the long run and is highly insignificant in the long run. The causality test results indicate that causality runs from growth to financial savings, from growth or real output to credit. The study suggests that more attention should be paid to other aspects of financial liberalisation and financial reforms because liberalising the interest rate is not only the key aspect of financial sector reform.

There is no doubt that in recent years Corporate Environmental Disclosure (CED) by corporations has received much attention among accounting academic researchers. However, reviewing previous studies has identified the following existing gaps which have given an impetus for this study and need to be bridged namely: (1) the need for a new approach of analysis namely, a three-dimensional analysis that includes the intra-country (external) factors, inter-organisational (internal) factors and content analysis; (2) the requirement for investigating other available means of CED such as internal reports and stand alone environmental reports; and (3) the call for examining CED practice in Libya where there was no previous attention given to this country. This study aims to examine the various aspects of CED in Libya with a view to testing the applicability of Environmental Determinism Theory. It did this initially by providing the first detailed and longitudinal description of the extent of practices of CED which were made by the all the largest industrial companies quoted on the Libyan Industrial Production Administration for the years 1998-2001. It then endeavoured to explain and understand this evidence of CED practice (or non-practice) by utilising (1) the perspectives of a sample of corporate managers of such companies regarding the nature of corporate environmental responsibility and CED; and (2) the political, economic and social contexts in which the CED is being made. To achieve this, three methods (triangulation approach) were utilised in this study, namely, content analysis, questionnaire and historiography. The results of content analysis showed that CED has yet to develop in Libya. There is no evidence of environmental disclosure either in terms of its quantity or quality, especially if the health and safety category is excluded. Libyan companies provide some statements in their annual reports, and, in some cases, other external reports (specific forms) or internal reports related to only one category of CED namely health and safety information. Apart from health and safety disclosed, the companies studied have disclosed no other environmental information. They still have a long way to go in order to reach the level reached by their counterparts in developed countries. An interesting point was that Libyan companies, by contrast with their counterparts even in developing countries, have given more attention to negative news. The perceptions of managers were investigated by using a questionnaire survey. Fifty three questionnaires were used with a rate of response of 62%. The results suggest that the vast majority of them accept that Libyan companies should recognise their environmental responsibility and provide environmental disclosure to the central authorities. However, most managers felt that a scarcity of legal and professional standards and guidelines, along with their lack of expertise, qualification and training in the field of CED have prevented them from engaging in CED. Therefore CED has not been put in the agenda of many Libyan companies. The analysis of the environmental influence on CED practice in Libya indicates that the social context including religion seems to be having to some extent an influence upon CED practice in Libya. However, the country's unique political and economic contexts along with the managers' attitudes and qualifications were the fundamental CED disclosure determinants. Therefore, this study has concluded that CED practices in Libya are shaped not only by one single factor but by the external and internal factors. The impact of the political, economic and social (external) factors reflects the indirect influence on the disclosure environment. Whereas, the internal factors (perception and cognition) reflect the direct impact of those involved in the disclosure process, namely the managers, as they are the ones who decide what information to be disclosed.

The objectives of this thesis are to: (1) examine if the resource curse exists in the context of Libya; (2) assess the role of institutions in avoiding or minimising the resource curse, and; (3) evaluate institutional and economic reforms required, and the best options to diversify the economy from oil, hence avoid the resource curse in Libya. To achieve these, three approaches are applied, (i) a three country comparative analysis; (ii) Libya country-level time-series analysis, and; (iii) institutional descriptive analysis. This thesis uses time-series data and annual datasets covering 1970-2010. Johansen’s co-integration is used to establish the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the models. The Johansen co-integration test, based on the Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue statistics, is applied. In the first approach, the three case studies included in the study are Nigeria, Norway and UAE, with outcomes suggesting that Norway managed to avoid the Dutch disease, the UAE show no major signs of the resource curse, Norway and the UAE have largely managed to overcome Dutch disease, while Nigeria suffers a management curse. The first model suggests that Libya may experience a resource curse, but this may not be as a result of an appreciation of the real exchange rate. A 1% increase in the oil price will cause the Libyan exchange rate to increase (depreciate) by 1.41%. The country could potentially suffer from Dutch disease, but no evidence can be brought by the first model alone. In an attempt to reinforce the first analysis, the second model examined the sectoral impacts of the Dutch disease. Three relations are estimated; tradable sectors (manufacturing and agricultural), and non-tradable sectors (construction and services). These were all found to have been affected by oil revenue. This therefore confirms the existence of Dutch disease in Libya. The descriptive statistics analysis is used alongside five governance indicators: political stability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. It is concluded that the quality of institutions in Libya affects economic growth negatively. The study holds several implications for policy-makers.

Doutoramento em Engenharia Mecânica
The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.
O projeto de Doutoramento aborda o potencial de usar centrais de energia solar concentrada (CSP) como um sistema de produção de energia alternativa disponível na Líbia. Uma análise nas vertentes exergética, energética, económica e ambiental foi realizada para um tipo particular destas centrais – um sistema de 50 MW com receção parabólica, porém ela é suficientemente geral para ser aplicada a outras configurações. A originalidade do estudo, para além da modelação e análise da configuração selecionada encontra-se na utilização do estado da arte em termos da análise exergética combinada com a avaliação do ciclo de vida (LCA). A modelação e simulação da central CSP selecionada são efetuadas no terceiro capítulo tendo em consideração as duas componentes: ciclo de potência e campo de coletores solar. O modelo computacional para a análise do sistema foi desenvolvido com base em equações algébricas que descrevem o sistema, e que são resolvidas usando o software EES. Deste modo, são definidas as propriedades em cada ponto de interesse para os diferentes elementos do sistema, o que assim permite determinar as energias, eficiências e irreversibilidades desses elementos. O modelo desenvolvido tem o potencial de se tornar uma ferramenta de grande utilidade para o projeto preliminar de engenharia de centrais CSP, e também para a avaliação da eventual reconfiguração de centrais elétricas solares comerciais em operação. Além disso, o modelo pode ser utilizado no estudo de viabilidade da operação de centrais CSP, através da análise energética, económica e ambiental, para regiões diferentes da que foi escolhida no presente estudo -Trípoli (Líbia). O cenário total da viabilidade da operação da central CSP é completado através da análise horária com base anual apresentada no quarto capítulo. Esta análise permite a comparação de diferentes sistemas e, eventualmente permite fazer a seleção com base nas componentes económicas e energéticas, que são determinadas dentro do contexto do software greenius. A análise também toma em conta o impacto de financiamento e incentivos dados aos projetos no custo da produção de energia. O principal resultado desta análise é a verificação que o desempenho é mais elevado, com o consequente menor custo nivelado da eletricidade, para a Líbia em comparação com o Sul da Europa (Espanha). Assim a Líbia tem o potencial de se tornar um candidato atrativo para o estabelecimento de centrais CSP com o objetivo, como foi considerado em várias iniciativas europeias, de exportar eletricidade gerada através de fontes de energia renováveis de países do Norte de África e Médio Oriente para a Europa. A análise apresenta uma breve revisão do custo corrente da eletricidade e o potencial para reduzir o custo da energia a partir da tecnologia de receção parabólica de centrais CSP. A avaliação do ciclo de vida com base exergética (ELCA) e a avaliação do ciclo de vida convencional são realizadas para a centrais CSP específicas no quinto capítulo. Os objetivos são 1) avaliar o impacto ambiental e custo, em termos de do ciclo iv de vida exergético do sistema; 2) identificar pontos fracos em termos da irreversibilidade dos processos; e 3) verificar se as centrais CSP podem reduzir o impacto ambiental e o custo de geração de eletricidade em comparação com centrais que consomem combustível fóssil. O capítulo ainda apresenta uma análise termoeconómica com base na metodologia do custo específico da exergia (SPECO), que avalia o custo relacionado com a destruição de exergia. A análise verificou que o impacto mais importante é a contribuição apresentada pelo campo solar (79%), e os materiais com maior impacto são: aço (47%), sal fundido (25%) e óleo sintético (21%). A análise ELCA mostra que a maior demanda de exergia é devida ao aço (47%); a análise existe uma considerável demanda de exergia relacionada com o sal fundido e ainda o óleo sintético. Em comparação com as centrais que consomem combustível fóssil (NGCC e óleo) a central sistema CSP apresenta menor impacto ambiental, enquanto o pior desempenho ambiental é o da central com queima de óleo seguida pela central a gás natural (NGCC). Na central CSP, o campo solar apresenta o custo mais elevado, enquanto o gerador de vapor, entre os componentes do ciclo de potência, apresenta o maior custo. O armazenamento de energia térmica permite que as centrais CSP superem a intermitência de radiação solar para responder à procura de energia elétrica independentemente das condições climáticas, e também possam estender a produção de eletricidade para além da disponibilidade da radiação solar diária. A análise numérica do transiente térmico de um sistema de armazenamento de gradiente térmico é realizada durante a fase de carregamento. O sistema de equações que descreve o modelo numérico é resolvido através da utilização de diferenças finitas implícitas no tempo usando o software Matlab. Os resultados da análise indicam que as previsões estão em boa concordância com os dados experimentais para a evolução no tempo da região de gradiente térmico, em particular para regiões mais afastadas da entrada. Nesta região os desvios observados são provavelmente causados pelo alto nível de turbulência devido à penetração do jato no seio do tanque de armazenamento. O modelo analítico simples para simular a turbulência que foi desenvolvido melhora os resultados. Esta abordagem não requer esforço computacional adicional e determina a difusidade térmica efetiva ao longo do tanque.

Libya has an economy over dependent on hydrocarbon and the petroleum industry. In a bid to diversify, the Libyan government is looking at Free Economic Zones (FEZ) as a viable option versus other avenues, like Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This thesis explores FEZ as a tool to fetch investment for the development of Libya's economy. Some of the factors in favour of FEZ are believed to be employment opportunities for local labour, enhancing their skills and knowledge, as well as bringing new technology along with management styles, thereby boosting not only the national economy, but overall growth of society. This thesis examines these arguments by comparing existing FEZ in various parts of the world, particularly Al-Ameria FEZ in Alexandria, Egypt. The case study revolves around this FEZ, as it has geographical and cultural similarity to that of Libya. In stimulating a potential decision making process, cost-benefit analysis is carried out to evaluate financial return against benefits envisaged. Finally, the study recommends the perceived best way forward in establishing successful FEZ to achieve desired sustainable economic growth in Libya. This is the first study of its kind in the Arab world that covers cost-benefit analysis of different industries within FEZ, and could prove to be a guideline for academics and business communities working in this field.

In a developing oil-based economy like Libya the availability of finance is largely affected by the availability of oil revenues which are subjected to disturbances and shocks. Therefore, the decision to save and invest a certain ratio of the country's aggregate output is, to large extent, determined (and affected) by the shocks in the oil markets rather than the requirements of economic development. In this study an attempt is made to determine the optimal rate of saving and investment, both defined as a ratio of the aggregate output, according to the requirements of economic development. For this purpose, a neo-classical Ramsey-type model for Libya is constructed and applied to obtain theoretically and empirically the optimal saving and investment rate during the period (1965-1991). The results reveal that Libya was investing over the optimal level during the oil boom of 1970s and less than the optimal level during the oil crisis of 1980s. In addition, an econometric investigation of the determinants of actual investment by sector (agriculture, non-oil industry, and services) is carried out in order to shed lights on how possible it is for Libya to adjust actual investment towards its optimal level. It is found that, as expected, the most important factor which can be used in this respect is the oil revenues or, generally, the availability of finance. In addition, the study reveals that investment in agriculture is associated, during the period of study, with a very low marginal productivity of capital whereas marginal productivity was higher in both non-oil industry and services. Finally, the study investigates also the future potential saving and investment rates and concludes that the economy, which has already reached its steady state, can be pushed out towards further growth if the economy can be able to increase the level of per worker human capital, proxied by the secondary school enrolment as a percentage of population.

Deforestation has many negative effects on the environment. In North Africa the most dramatic are a loss of habitat for wildlife, desertification, soil erosion, and climate change. In the Jefara plain, Libya, tree planting was undertaken to combat desertification and stabilize sand dunes and by 1984, 248,000 ha had been planted. However, these forest now suffer from severe deforestation, leading to serious encroachment of sand dunes, which now puts at risk those areas converted to agriculture. The major objective of this thesis was to understand the real causes of deforestation focussing mainly on socio-economic and policy drivers in Algarabulli District. Interviewed respondents stated that deforestation commenced in 1986, the major direct causes being agricultural expansion, building and road construction, and land trading. However, the major indirect cause contributing to deforestation was reported to be the change of forest governance in 1986; this led to an increase in corruption and a decrease in law enforcement, resulting in many land allocation contracts being issued to officers and government officials who then cleared forestland for themselves and later by local people. They reported that deforestation increased dramatically in the study zone after the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, due to the total breakdown in governance. Interviews were also conducted with 20 government officials (in the Ministry of Agriculture and legal experts of in administrative and real estate law) Legislation, Forest Department records and policies were also reviewed. These findings agreed with those from research with local residents. Officials added that the former regime contributed to destruction of the forests indirectly by: giving orders to abolish the Ministry of Agriculture several times, encouraging burning of the Land Registry Centres, and distributing forest land to officials, all of which led to an increase the corruption and lack of law enforcement. This was despite the de jure adequacy of forest protection legislation. Remote sensing, using SPOT imagery was used to estimate the rate of land cover change. The results of supervised classification and ground truething showed a remarkable degree of agreement with other two methods (local residents’ estimates and Forest Department records): 27% of total forest area was cleared between 1986 and 2010, but after the fall of the Gaddafi regime another 35% was cleared between 2011 and 2013. Currently only 36% of the originally planted forest remains. Finally, a survey was conducted with 43 forest clearers. The results showed that population growth and density had not contributed to deforestation. Analysis of the characteristics of forest clearers found that 93% of respondents were educated, 100% were employed and their income was slightly higher than respondents who had not cleared forests. The main purpose of clearing forest after the 2011 uprising was to sell the land illegally, due to a tenfold increase in land prices, which incentivised land speculation and forest clearance as a means of money laundering. If deforestation continues at the current rate, all forests will be lost within three years. Due to the total breakdown in governance, deforestation in Libya nowadays is one of the biggest environmental challenges.

The development of small businesses and the increasing role they are playing as engines of economic growth, employment generation and social change is making them a subject of major strategic importance to governments, and growing interest to researchers. Small businesses are increasingly regarded as both indicators of the economic dynamism of an economy, and agents of economic growth: in the developing economies small businesses are also regarded as being capable of improving standards in areas such as training. technical expertise and management throughout an economy. Of particular concern in many economies, especially those such as Libya which are in transition to a free-market model, is the contribution small businesses can make to employment growth outside of the public sector. The broad aim of the research discussed here was to enhance understanding of the factors influencing the growth of Libyan small manufacturing firms from the perspective of owner-managers and to develop an explanatory conceptual framework that aids this understanding. As secondary aims, it also seeks to inform government policy and to contribute to the success and growth of the sector overall. Informed by a comprehensive literature review, the research approach was to investigate and interpret the opinions, experience, attitudes and ideas of a sample of owner-managers with respect to the factors that they considered to be of the greatest influence on the growth of small manufacturing firms. Because of the lack of prior research, the study was exploratory in nature and a qualitative methodology was employed, employing a grounded approach with qualitative content analysis, Following a pilot study, the researcher conducted twenty-eight semi-structured interviews with the owner-managers of small manufacturing businesses: the sample consisted of owner-managers located in two Libyan cities, Tripoli and Misurata. Tripoli is Libya's capital, economic centre and overwhelmingly the area with most manufacturing output, while Misurata is the second largest manufacturing centre and the focus of much investment in infrastructure by the Libyan state. The interviews were designed to explore four sets of factors that may influence the growth of small manufacturing firms in Libya: the characteristics of the owner manager, the characteristics of the firm, the business's strategy and factors in the external environment. The interviews generated a substantial amount of rich data and this was interpreted and analysed on a cross-case basis and the findings were organised according to these four sets of factors. The research produced a range of interesting findings, many of which confirmed those of other studies in developed countries, such as the importance of ownermanager growth aspirations, education, experience and networks, the firm's age and location and aspects of its strategy such as marketing, innovation and training. Other findings retlected relatively widespread issues in developing economies, such as shortages of skills and finance, infrastructural inadequacies, bureaucracy and corruption. However, the research also highlighted a number of issues that are specific to Libya, or whose impact is different or more extreme because of the combination of political, economic and socia-cultural circumstances. It is concluded that Libya's combination of a bloated public sector with widespread corruption, slow transition from a socialist economy, frequent changes in economic policy, large informal sector, weak legal enforcement and predominance of family and personal relationships has created a particularly challenging environment for small businesses. As the research demonstrates, some owner-managers have found ways to overcome these problems and achieve high levels of growth but many others find their growth severely constrained by these environmental issues. The research is exploratory in nature and many of the issues discussed merit further research, in particular to inform future policy and support. Key areas for future research are outlined and tentative recommendations are made for future government policy with respect to the Libyan small firm sector. Note: the fieldwork for this thesis was carried out prior to the popular uprising in Libya, which began in February 20 II and resulted in a change of government. References to government policy throughout the thesis refer to the previous government, with the exception of the policy recommendations in Chapter 6, which refer to the new government of Libya.

Libya is still in the early stages of its financial liberalisation and reform following eleven years of political chaos and nearly three decades of central planning control. However, it is advancing as a result of the removal of UN and US sanctions during the last few years, and there are signs of rapid development. Despite these advancements, no study has been found which explores the readiness of the Libyan financial market for the establishment of a stock market. This thesis was undertaken to develop a conceptual framework for a research model with a specific focus on the Libyan economic reform programme and the development of the Libyan stock market between 1999 and 2008. The empirical study investigates the determinants of economic reform and stock market performance within the Libyan economy utilising data from three different sources and a multi-method approach. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to the entire target population of the Libyan financial market, banking sector and a number of companies. A total of 330 questionnaires were distributed and of these, 203 were returned completed and usable, a response a rate of 61.5 per cent. Fourteen semistructured interviews were held with managers in a subset of companies, selected via a stratified sample of respondents to the self-administered questionnaires. The third method of data collection used financial market data over the period 1995-2006 from 42 emerging market countries. This data was analysed to examine whether best practice from emerging stock markets is transferable to the Libyan context. As a result, this study provides some knowledge that might usefully be generalised to other developing countries, particularly to those with a similar economic structure. The primary contribution of this study lies in the fact that it is the first attempt to study the impact of stock market development on the economic growth process of a specific-country experience and evaluates the success of the economic reform programme and Libya’s readiness to complete its transition to a market-based economy. The key findings are; first, the economic reform programme variables have an impact upon various features of the stock market performance variables within a linear regression model; second, stock market development has a significant effect on economic growth, and this effect remains strong even after controlling for banking sector and other control variables using a growth model; third, although the evidence largely supports the view that there is a stable, long-term equilibrium relationship between the evolution of the stock market and the evolution of the economy, it provides no support for the view that the stock market is a leading sector in the process of Libya’s economic development. The evidence supports the view that the relation between stock market development and economic growth in emerging economies is bi-directional. The findings describe that the stock market and the banking sector in Libya in particular and emerging economy in general are complementary rather than substitutes in providing financial services to the economy. This study seeks to make an original contribution to knowledge on the academic and practical levels as one of the first attempts at empirically investigating the impact of an economic reform programme on stock market performance in an emerging economy. The research represents an applied study of a type that has not appeared elsewhere, and the framework offered may therefore not only be appropriate to Libya as a case study, but also to other countries in similar circumstances. The research provides an important introduction to this area and has attempted to explore its significance for both the economy and business. This research adds to the existing body of literature regarding development and application of a series of models of economic reform programmes, stock market performance and economic growth in a developing country. Additionally, brief recommendations are offered regarding potential useful directions for future research arising from the conclusions of this research. These develop into a strategic framework for the improvement of an economic reform programme and stock market performance.

The purpose of the study is to identify the tourism potential, examine the significance of tourism to the national economy and evaluate the marketing of Libya as a tourist destination. The effects of tourism development on several countries including Libya are considered. Concepts of tourism development including policies, planning and marketing for tourism are used to provide a theoretical basis for the study. Policy recommendations are produced to encompass a strategy framework to improve the performance of the tourism sector in Libya.

Concerns over both environmental issues and about the depletion of fossil fuels have acted as twin driving forces to the development of renewable energy and its integration into existing electricity grids. The variable nature of RE generators assessment affects the ability to balance supply and demand across electricity networks; however, the use of energy storage and demand-side response techniques is expected to help relieve this situation. One possibility in this regard might be the use of water electrolysis to produce hydrogen while producing industrial-scale DSR services. This would be facilitated by the use of tariff structures that incentive the operation of electrolysers as dispatchable loads. This research has been carried out to answer the following question: What is the feasibility of using electrolysers to provide industrial-scale of Demand-side Response for grid balancing while producing hydrogen at a competitive price? The hydrogen thus produced can then be used, and indeed sold, as a clean automotive fuel. To these ends, two common types of electrolyser, alkaline and PEM, are examined in considerable detail. In particular, two cost scenarios for system components are considered, namely those for 2015 and 2030. The coastal city of Darnah in Libya was chosen as the basis for this case study, where renewable energy can be produced via wind turbines and photovoltaics (PVs), and where there are currently six petrol stations serving the city that can be converted to hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs). In 2015 all scenarios for both PEM and alkaline electrolysers were considered and were found to be able to partly meet the project aims but with high cost of hydrogen due to the high cost of system capital costs, low price of social carbon cost and less government support. However, by 2030 the price of hydrogen price will make it a good option as energy storage and clean fuel for many reasons such as the expected drop in capital cost, improvement in the efficiency of the equipment, and the expectation of high price of social carbon cost. Penetration of hydrogen into the energy sector requires strong governmental support by either establishing or modifying policies and energy laws to increasingly support renewable energy usage. Government support could effectively bring forward the date at which hydrogen becomes techno-economically viable (i.e. sooner than 2030).

Nombreux sont les pays qui vivent aujourd’hui dans un état de guerre et de conflits violents. Ces pays supportent ainsi des coûts importants qu’ils soient directs ou indirects. Toutefois, les effets de la guerre sont encourus sur le long terme et empêchent le processus de développement économique du pays concerné. Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à l’analyse du coût d’opportunité de la guerre. Cette analyse est reliée à la fois au prix de la vie humaine et au prix des destructions matérielles.Plusieurs économistes ont définit et ont estimé le coût d’opportunité de la guerre. Ce type d’estimation exige des hypothèses sur la manière dont l’économie aurait fonctionné en absence de la guerre. Cependant, ce genre de calcul n’est pas très élaboré. Notre travail de recherche se concentre sur le calcul de ce coût pour la guerre que le Liban a vécu entre 1975 et 1990. Nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement de l’économie libanaise, non pas uniquement pour la période de la guerre mais aussi pour la période postérieure à celle-ci. Les méthodes de calcul que nous utilisons sont inspirées des définitions du coût d’opportunité données par Jean Baptiste Say et par la Banque mondiale
Nowadays, many countries live in a constant state of war and violence. They suffer from both direct and indirect costs that will have a long term impact on their economic development and progress. In this thesis, we are going to analyze the opportunity-cost of war. This analysis stresses both the value of human beings as well as the cost of material damages. Many economists have tried to define and estimate the opportunity-cost of wars. These estimations take into consideration several hypotheses on how the economy would have functioned in the absence of war. However, these calculations were never elaborate. Our work focuses on the calculation of the opportunity cost of the Lebanese civil war which started in 1975 and lasted for sixteen years. We will examine how the Lebanese economy functioned during the civil war as well as after it was done. The methods of calculation that we used are inspired from the work of Jean Baptiste Say and the World Bank

Dès son indépendance en 1943, le Liban a adhéré à un libéralisme économique très proche du « laisser-faire » ou l’intervention gouvernementale s’est surtout concentrée sur l’infrastructure de base dans la capitale. La vision politique dominante croyait au pays comme centre de commerce et de services financiers et touristiques en privant l’agriculture et l’industrie de l’attention et de l’aide gouvernementales. Le but de cette thèse est d’analyser les principaux facteurs influençant le développement du secteur secondaire libanais. Ceci permettra de discerner les obstacles ayant entravé le dit développement afin de dégager le profil de la politique industrielle requise à un moment où le pays rentre dans une période de reconstruction massive après une longue absence gouvernementale sur le plan de la planification. Cette analyse est entreprise à travers l’étude de la branche des biens capitaux identifiée pour son importance dans la théorie de développement économique, son gain d’importance continu dans l’industrie libanaise et pour sa capacité d’interaction avec les différents secteurs économiques dont celui de la construction
Since her independance in 1943, Lebanon has followed an economic policy close to « laisser-faire » with government intervention concentrating on infrastructure in the capital. The mainstream political vision always conceptualized the country as a center of services, thus depriving agriculture and industry from government intervention and aid. The aim of this thesis is to propose the main headlines of an appropriate industrial policy for Lebanon at the time where the country is embarking into a period of massive post-war reconstruction after a prolonged governmental absence from the planning scene. The study is undertaken through an analysis of the classical factors affecting industrial development in the case of the Lebanese capital goods sector. The choice of the latter is made because of its importance in the development economics theory, it’s growing share within the Lebanese economy as well as its ability to interact with the different economic sectors among which construction

The present study is concerned with the settlement and agricultural development process as it is taking place in the Wadi Al-Hai agricultural project and the influence of some socio-economic factors on the agricultural exploited area. The Wadi Al-Hai project is one of the most important agricultural development projects in Libya. It is located 85 km south-west of the capital city Tripoli, and includes 417 farms, with each farm being 25 hectares, and consisting of a modern house and all agricultural requirements. For the empirical study, two types of analysis will be used: - Descriptive statistical analysis: describing the study the main features of the structure of agriculture development in the Wadi Al-Hai area, and the economic situation of the farmers in the project. The data for this part were analyzed on the basis of simple but appropriate statistical measures, such as frequency ratios, means and distributions, standard error and the chi-square test. - Econometric Analysis: using economic statistical analysis and the relations between different economic and social variables in a set of mathematical models aiming to explore the potential contributions and influences of such factors in this project. In short, a log-linear cross sectional model is developed aiming at relating the relevant socio-economic factors to the exploited areas. Also the study is based on a survey of 105 settlement households located in the Wadi Al- Hai project. Key socio-economic characteristics of the farmers are related to their experience and quantitative survey data are supplemented by qualitative interview material. Additional documents were provided by the Council of Agricultural Development, Secretariat of Planning. The theoretical analysis is based on economic development and growth with reference to agriculture and agricultural development in Libya. A number of weaknesses in the project are identified such as in the operation of co-operatives, marketing arrangements, extension services and water management. In conclusion, some agricultural policy recommendations are made for the exploitation of natural resources and human resources in the project. Our initial results indicate that all the variables studied have statistically significant effects on the agricultural exploited area in the project.

The world-system today promotes inequalities between and within states through the maintenance and strengthening of uneven and hierarchical global relations established by colonialism. The reinforcement of colonial structures has unfolded into neocolonial relations in the post-colonial world, explaining the underdevelopment and marginalization of former colonies in the world-system today, and why many African countries largely experience internal instability on several fronts, revealing how individuals from these states tend to experience some sort of human insecurity. This scenario is permissive to the development of the new wars – representing a different perspective on the patterns of violence and war of contemporaneity – and the new global war economy and its parallel economy. It is from this context that the commodification of migrants happens, challenging and often defying migrants’ access to human rights andhuman security. The present study is therefore primarily a theoretical research and an empirical investigation on the commodification of migrants in contemporary Libya, sustained by four main theoretical frameworks and the analysis of selected secondary materials from international organizations and NGOs. This study aims at addressing the different forms of commodification of migrants in Libya today and who are the actors that control these markets and benefit from the commodification of human life. This analysis evidences the contradiction between the bleak reality of migrants in contemporary Libya and the applicability of the normative concepts of human securityand migrants’ rights.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD (Development Studies)
In society, development had hitherto been mainly defined in relation to the pursuit and sustenance of balanced economic growth. Since the new millennium however, the essence of development has increasingly shifted beyond minimalist economic definitions, to include a balanced incorporation of social welfare focusing on core areas like health and education, and other issues like environmental sustainability. Also, linkages have been established between both aspects, such that for all countries, developed or developing, the success of economic policies is often influenced by and/or linked to the extent of social development. Still, priorities differ between developed and developing countries. While developed countries are more concerned with issues of global peace and national security, most developing countries focus on poverty eradication, job creation, universal access to quality education and improved health services. Libya’s vibrant informal economy has the potential to contribute to the country’s economic and national development efforts. The informal food sector, which is a part of the informal economy, can play an important role in this. Not only does the sector provide food to the poor at affordable prices, it also creates employment and business opportunities for a large number of people who otherwise would find it difficult to find employment, earn a living and secure theirs and their family’s livelihoods through income generated within the sector. Despite this, very few studies have been conducted to explore the nature and potential of the sector.

This thesis seeks to explore the changes of the Libyan economy, which began in the mid-1980s. The core of this research is to examine the influence of these changes on the course of the state and the implementation of the economic reform programmes. The relevant theoretical literature is based upon the relationship between the international and internal factors leading up the economic reform. The globalisation and state power are reviewed. The theory of rentier state and also the discussion of the most relevant aspects of the privatisation process were considered. The contribution of the thesis is its sustained analysis of the Libyan economic policies and, more importantly, its response to the neglect of the international and domestic influences of the economic reform process particularly in oil states. In addition, the literature on Libya and its structural and economic reform suffers from a lack of theoretically-grounded analysis. The methodology of this study is based upon combination of both interviews and questionnaires seemed the ideal methods in examining the economic reform and the privatisation programmes. The documentary research was also an important element for this study. In order to identify the determinants of the changes of the Libyan economy and the implementation process, it employs a variety of Libyan official documents and economic data. In general the study reveals that the relationship and the interaction between the international and domestic factors is extremely vital to understand the economic reform and privatisation programmes in Libya. Despite the significance of the international arena, its impacts are mitigated through the domestic context. Moreover, the previous state policies, the role of the state institutions and the interaction between the state apparatus and the Libyan society are important in understanding the Libyan economy.

Cette thèse porte principalement sur la proposition de réformes politiques, économiques et culturelles cruciales visant à influencer la conformité fiscale des contribuables Libanais. Outre l'estimation de l'économie de l'ombre au Liban et l'analyse de l'effet des pots-de-vin sur la fraude fiscale et la croissance économique, des institutions optimales ont été suggérées afin de confronter la fraude fiscale. Ces sujets, objets de cette thèse, sont reformulés dans les trois chapitres détaillés ci-après. Le premier chapitre évalue l'économie de l'ombre au Liban tout en mettant en œuvre une approche monétaire. Il convient de noter que l'économie de l'ombre a été appréciée à 36.61 % du Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) en 2018. Il a également été révélé que la part de l'évasion fiscale dans l'économie de l'ombre avait atteint 30.04% en 2018. En ce qui concerne l'année 2020, des prévisions se rapportant à l'économie de l'ombre seront présentées. Ce chapitre introduit les facteurs multiples qui accentuent ce phénomène au Liban et suggère de nombreux éléments clés qui pourraient limiter sa croissance. Par exemple, il a été montré que le contrôle de la fraude fiscale pourrait accroitre le PIB et diminuer l'économie de l'ombre. Le deuxième chapitre aborde le pot-de-vin versé par les fraudeurs fiscaux aux contrôleurs fiscaux corrompus dans le cadre d'un modèle d'accumulation de capital; ceci a pour objectif d'étudier l'effet du pot-de-vin sur la décision de fraude fiscale et la croissance économique. Il a été démontré que la politique fiscale adoptée par le gouvernement est le facteur clé définissant le comportement des contribuables et non le pot-de-vin. De plus, il a été prouvé que le pot-de-vin réduit l'accumulation de capital des individus ainsi que les ressources publiques du gouvernement. Ce fait entrainera une croissance économique plus faible en fonction de l'accumulation du capital. En outre, il fut démontré qu'un budget gouvernemental productif constitue un facteur important dans la croissance économique quant au taux d'imposition élevé. Cependant, les capitaux des particuliers représentent le critère déterminant dans la croissance économique en ce qui concerne le faible taux d'imposition. Le troisième chapitre propose un aspect optimal de la conception institutionnelle qui pourrait réduire la fraude fiscale au Liban. Il s'est avéré que la conception institutionnelle optimale entraîne une perception d'impôts plus élevée et une augmentation des revenus de l'Etat. Pour cette raison, la mise en place de changements dans la conception institutionnelle est requise afin d'améliorer la situation financière de l'Etat ; de même celle-ci est nécessaire pour répondre aux contribuables Libanais qui réclament des institutions compétentes et transparentes, capables d'être inclusives. Également, les dispositions publiques, les institutions politiques, le système de taxation, ainsi que les lois sont des instruments essentiels pour la régulation du comportement des contribuables. De plus, ce chapitre fournit des propositions concrètes visant à optimiser la conformité des contribuables Libanais. Celui-ci montre qu'un cadre juridique bien développé contrôlant les autorités générales crée un environnement idéal qui puisse contribuer au progrès économique et le développement social. De même, la loi électorale "un homme, un vote" - combinée avec des réformes structurelles des organes judiciaires et des autorités de contrôle - favorisera l'amélioration de la performance des autorités générales. Par conséquent, les contribuables feront confiance au gouvernement et établiront de nouveaux fondamentaux culturels qui les incitent à remplir leurs obligations envers les autorités fiscales et à augmenter leur niveau de conformité
The major issues discussed in this thesis revolve mainly around the proposition of critical political, economic, and cultural reforms that might affect the tax compliance of the Lebanese taxpayers. After the shadow economy in Lebanon has been estimated and after the bribe's impact on tax evasion and economic growth has been analyzed, optimal institutions were suggested to confront tax evasion. This thesis consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 estimates the shadow economy in Lebanon by applying the monetary approach. The shadow economy was estimated at 36.61% of the GDP in 2018. Also, it was revealed that the tax evasion's share of the shadow economy hit 30.04% in 2018. It must be noted that shadow economy forecasts were presented for the year 2020. This chapter also presents the multiples factors amplifying this phenomenon in Lebanon and proposes several elements that can limit its growth. For instance, it was shown that the control of the tax evasion might increase the GDP and reduce the shadow economy. Chapter 2 introduces the bribe paid by the tax evaders to corrupted tax auditors, in a capital accumulation model to study its impact on the tax evasion decision and the economic growth. It was shown that the fiscal policy adopted by the government is the key factor defining the taxpayer behavior not the bribe. Moreover, it was proven that the bribe reduces both the individuals' capital accumulation and the government's public resources. This fact will lead to smaller economic growth, depending on capital accumulation. Besides, it was demonstrated that a productive government's budget is a significant factor in the economic growth for a high tax rate. However, the individuals' capitals are the guiding factor of economic growth for a low tax rate. Chapter 3 suggests an optimal aspect of the institutional design that might reduce fiscal fraud in Lebanon. It was revealed that optimal institutional design results in a higher tax collection and an increase in the state's income. Due to this fact, the introduction of changes in the institutional design is needed to improve the financial condition of the state and to respond to the Lebanese taxpayers, who demand competent and transparent institutions that are able to be inclusive. Public provisions, political institutions, tax system, and laws are essential instruments for the regulation of taxpayer behavior. Within this context, this chapter gives concrete proposals to enhance Lebanese taxpayers' compliance. It shows that a well-developed legal framework that controls the general authorities creates an ideal environment for economic and social progress. A "one man, one vote" electoral law, coupled with structural reforms of independent judicial and supervisory bodies, will support the improvement of the general authorities' performance. Therefore, taxpayers will trust the government and establish new cultural fundamentals that induce them to fulfill their obligations toward tax authorities and raise their level of compliance

Given the significance of financial liberalization and the key role of financial development in economic growth, according to the financial liberalization theory, liberalizing the financial sector is a route to increasing savings, investment and growth. However, the recent studies have shown that a number of developing countries do not demonstrate this kind of relationship and have, rather, recorded relatively low growth. The primary purpose of this research is to explore the potential economic impacts on the Libyan economy of economic liberalization in general, and liberalization of the financial services sector in particular, in the event of Libya‟s accession to full membership of the WTO. In order to ascertain and to quantify this impact, the study used a mixed methodology. The existing theoretical arguments have been critically reviewed in order to develop the research idea. In line with the research objectives, the methodology used include a quantitative and qualitative approach. First, the quantitative aspect is based on an empirical assessment of the impact of financial liberalization using time-series econometric techniques from 1978 to 2011 for secondary data analysis; and second, the qualitative approach, based on semistructured interviews directly related to the research aims and objectives. The empirical findings achieved the aim of the research. The results obtained show that despite the reforms and liberalization in the financial sector, there is a negative relationship between financial liberalization in Libya and economic growth during this period. This disproves the theory of financial liberalization that claims a positive co-relation between financial liberalization and economic growth. The research outcomes include a set of recommendations based on the findings of the study, which are potentially useful for policy makers and further research.

Since the 1980s, due to the disappointing performance of public sector enterprises and state economies, privatisation has been considered an essential policy tool for economic transformation by privatising state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and restructuring the economy for the private sector and private investors to participate more extensively in economic activities. Privatisation, however, as past experiences have proved, is not a simple issue, nor is it the same in all countries. Although in many industrialised and developing countries privatisation has achieved many positive results, in other developing and transitional countries the consequences of the experiment have been unsatisfactory. Worldwide experience has proved that there are several financial, economic, legal, administrative and social requirements that must be fulfilled in order to attain success and achieve the desired objectives of privatisation and economic transformation policies in an efficient and effective manner. This study, therefore, aims to explore the availability of these conditions in Libya by evaluating the adequacy and effectiveness of the Libyan financial, economic, administrative and legal environment for the efficient implementation of the privatisation programme. The main focus is on the financial and economic requirements; including restructuring the financial sector such as establishing the stock exchange market, reforming the banking sector, in addition to liberalizing the market, reforming exchange rate policies. In addition, it aims to assess the effectiveness of the policies and actions taken by the former Libyan government to support and regulate the privatisation process, as well as to assess policies addressing the potential social impacts of privatisation, such as redundancy and effects on consumer welfare. Moreover, this study aims to evaluate the legal environment and its appropriateness for implementation of the privatisation policy, promotion of private investors’ participation, and regulation of the market economy. The research methods used in this study are mainly based on qualitative techniques, and data were collected by two modes of data collection. The first is the collection of secondary data from documents including financial, economic and administrative reports, and laws and resolutions related to the topic in question. In addition, content analysis is used to analyse laws in order to examine the adequacy of the legal environment for successful privatisation and the transformation to a market economy. An attempt is also made to use statistical data in the form of secondary data to illustrate the developments and trends in privatisation policies and the impact of such policies. The second method of data collection used in this study is structured interviews, which targeted a variety of specialists and stakeholders of the privatisation process and economic policies in Libya. Findings of the study reveal that decision-makers in the former regime did not show a clear desire and sufficient support for privatisation and the transformation to a market economy. In addition, findings show that many regulative and administrative difficulties prevented the transparent implementation of privatisation in Libya. Furthermore, findings obtained from document analysis and the interviews prove that, although many positive procedures were implemented and new institutions created by the governments of the former regime, including attempts to reform the banking sector, liberalise the market and establish a stock market, etc., many difficulties and challenges are still facing the new Libyan government in developing a proper financial and economic environment for privatisation and economic reform policies and also establishing an efficient market economy. Similarly, with regard to social aspects, findings of the study demonstrate that the former Libyan government paid explicit attention to some potentially negative social impacts of privatisation. However, there are still some shortcomings, especially with regard to the redundancy problem and consumer protection issues. With regard to the legal environment, the former government issued several important laws and legislations for privatisation, and to encourage private sector investment. However, the findings demonstrate that these measures were and still are insufficient, as there have been many inappropriate constitutional provisions, in addition to non-activation of several new essential laws. This study, therefore, demonstrates that, although many positive procedures were implemented by the former Libyan government, many difficulties and challenges are still facing the government of the new regime to achieve the desired objectives of the privatisation programme and transformation to the market economy. The success of future governments will also be heavily dependent on their performance in creating an efficient market economy.

Electronic payment systems (EPS) have received considerable attention from researchers and business owners worldwide, because of their potential to support economic development and growth. Despite the significant contribution of the growth in EPS to the ability to complete transactions via the Internet, Libya lags significantly behind developed countries in its adoption of EPS. This research focuses on factors affecting EPS adoption and use in Libya, explaining how they positively or negatively affect Libyan customers and organisations‟ willingness to adopt EPS. Data was collected via semi-structured interviews with different stakeholders, including consumers, organisational staff (e.g. Telecommunications Companies, Banks, the Ministry of Telecommunication and Informatics, etc.), and strategic decision-makers (e.g. the Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Communications, Director of Islamic Banking at Bank of Republic). The research implements Grounded Theory methods (GT), in particular the Straussian approach, to analyse, explore, and investigate the socio-organisational, technical, political, and economic factors affecting the adoption of EPS in Libya, and importantly the relationship between these factors. It discusses the impact of the factors identified, from both organisational and consumer perspectives, highlighting the factors and issues that need to be overcome to support successful adoption of EPS. The findings confirm that, for consumers and organisations alike, economic factors (e.g. perceived benefits, cooperation with existing entities, mutuality of stakeholders, Internet costs, standard of living, marketing businesses, awareness, withdrawal control, XX feasibility studies on EPS implementation, Islamic banking services and competition) are the core factors influencing the system‟s adoption. Furthermore, the findings revealed three new and significant factors of relevance to Libya, including standard of living, post coding and the unstable political situation in the country. These represent a unique contribution to the body of knowledge, illustrating the attitude of the Libyan people toward Internet usage, and current obstacles to EPS adoption. The use of substantive GT, in particular the Straussian approach, for data collection and data analysis in the field of EPS adoption, and the assessment of organisational and consumer attitudes, is unique to this research to the best of the researcher‟s knowledge. Thus, the research embodies a substantial contribution to the body of knowledge. The interpretive analysis of data using a Straussian approach has permitted the researcher to attain a deep understanding of the socio-organisational, economic, political, and technical factors affecting adoption of an E-payment system in Libya, as implemented by different stakeholders: Consumers, and Organisational. The benefits that the adoption of EPS in Libya will bring, include facilitation of online transactions, the availability of more secure websites, easier payment and access to the global markets. Furthermore, detailed recommendations are also being offered to assist decision-makers in the development and introduction of EPS in Libya, i.e. including the Communications and Informatics Ministry, which is hoped will advise internet service providers and companies to discount the cost of using the internet for limited bandwidths, in order to insure everyone access to the internet, and EPS.

Trois décennies ont passé depuis l’accord de paix entre les Libanais au terme de la guerre civile commencée en 1975. L’accord de Taëf a adopté l’application de la décentralisation administrative pour favoriser le développement local au Liban. Les conférences internationales de financement du Liban (Paris 3, CEDRE, …) qui ont généré des dons et des prêts conditionnés à des réformes structurelles dont une nécessaire gouvernance locale fait partie afin de renforcer la participation des municipalités et des habitants.Ce développement économique des territoires régionaux libanais dépend du pouvoir des familles claniques féodales. Depuis des siècles, ces anciennes familles détiennent les ressources de production et ont la mainmise sur la gouvernance territoriale. Ces familles se partagent le territoire du Liban et leurs tractations conditionnent les règles d’une démocratie consensuelle. Chaque famille gouverne son fief et joue le jeu des influences politiques et de la protection de sa communauté confessionnelle pour influencer les instances politiques nationales. La logique communautaire de la société libanaise avec sa mosaïque de 18 groupes confessionnels répartis sur un petit territoire est entretenue par les familles claniques qui se présentent comme les protectrices de leur communauté. Le clientélisme est leur moyen de leur maintien au pouvoir. Dans cette perspective, ce système de gouvernance est devenu pour les politiciens un leurre sociopolitique.Notre thèse contribue à une lecture socio-politico-économique de l’influence de ces grandes familles sur le développement économique du caza de Jezzine.Dans le cadre de cette recherche on étudie l’application des notions de gouvernance territoriale, de décentralisation, des autorités traditionnelles ainsi que celle du développement économique local. Après une analyse de la littérature existante sur ces thèmes, nous avons conduit une analyse en deux volets afin de construire un modèle avec les variables impliquées dans le développement à Jezzine : une étude qualitative exploratoire par l’analyse d’entretiens avec des représentants de la société jezzinoise et une étude quantitative confirmatoire par questionnaire. Cette thèse éclaire la dynamique sociopolitique territoriale des familles claniques féodales à Jezzine, mais aussi les liens avec la gouvernance nationale. Le modèle final obtenu comprend 20 variables indépendantes et montre que ces grandes familles claniques forment une variable médiatrice pour expliquer le développement économique local du caza de Jezzine. Ceci nous permettra d’élaborer des pistes sur l’impact d’une telle démarche de décentralisation appliquée au Liban
Three decades have passed since the peace agreement among the Lebanese at the end of the civil war, started in 1975. The Taef agreement adopted the administrative decentralization to promote local development in Lebanon. The international fundraising conferences for Lebanon (Paris 3, CEDRE, ...) that generated donations and conditioned loans linked to structural reforms such as a necessary local governance to strengthen the participation of municipalities and inhabitants.This economic development of Lebanese local territories depends on the power of feudal clan families. For centuries, these ancient families hold the means of production and have control over the local governance. The territory of Lebanon is controlled by these families, their alliances, and their political confessional practices called by them a “consensual democracy”. Each family gains its political influences over the national political authorities through its objective of “protecting its confessional community”. So, the community-based logic of Lebanese society with its mosaic of 18 sectarian groups spread over a small territory is maintained by the clan families who present themselves as the protectors of their community. Political patronage is their way of keeping them in power. In this perspective, this system of governance has become for Lebanese traditional politicians a socio-political decoy.Our thesis contributes to a socio-politico-economical reading of the influence of these large families on the economic development of the caza of Jezzine.We studied the implementation of the notions of territorial governance, decentralization, traditional authorities as well as local economic development. After an analysis of the existing literature on these topics, we conducted two-part analysis to build a model with the variables involved in the development in Jezzine: an exploratory qualitative study conducted through interviews with the representatives of Jezzine society, and a confirmatory quantitative questionnaire-based study. This thesis illuminates the socio-political territorial dynamics of the feudal clan families in Jezzine, and their interrelations with the national governance. The final model obtained includes 20 independent variables and shows that these large clan families form a mediating variable to explain the local economic development of the caza of Jezzine. This will allow us to elaborate on the impact of such a decentralization process applied to Lebanon