Academic literature on the topic 'Law reform tasks'

Study of the initial provisions of public administration in the field of law enforcement reform, we have limited their composition and establishment of features. It is established that the object of public administration in the field of law enforcement reform should be understood as public relations to which the tools of law enforcement are used, the actual methods of law enforcement, and the activities of entities implementing law enforcement. In turn, the subjects will be the central executive bodies that implement state policy in the field of law enforcement, local governments, and law enforcement agencies. The tasks of public administration of the law enforcement system include: establishing a system of communication between law enforcement agencies to perform the tasks assigned to them by law; formation of financial support for the activities of law enforcement agencies; development and implementation of law enforcement reforms; formation of resource support for the implementation of reforms and the functioning of law enforcement agencies; formation of information support for the implementation of reforms in the law enforcement sphere; organization of training and retraining of law enforcement personnel; organization of information and communication system of interaction of law enforcement agencies with international police organizations. The implementation of these tasks will ensure the adoption of highly effective public administration decisions on the development and implementation of reforms in the law enforcement sphere, which should ensure the effectiveness of the law enforcement system. The selection of the following principles of the law enforcement system, the observance of which should be aimed at public administration decisions: legality; justice; equality; professionalism; competence; political ness; continuity; independence. Keywords: public administration, law enforcement, law enforcement reform, highly effective public administration decisions, legality, justice, equality, professionalism, competence, policy, continuity, independence.

In Ukraine, the reform of decentralization of power has been going on since 2014 – the transfer of a significant part of powers,finances, other resources and responsibilities from the state power as close as possible to the people – local governments. The process of voluntary association of territorial communities and formation of capable united territorial communities belongsto the same sphere. The issue of formation of the inseparable territory of OTG (requirement of Article 4 of the Law of Ukraine “OnVoluntary Association of Territorial Communities”) in the aspect of transfer of a significant part of state-owned lands to communal onesis still relevant, insufficiently regulated by law.It is absolutely necessary to analyze modern judicial practice. in cases related to the redistribution of state and communal landsduring decentralization, as it indicates the shortcomings of current legislation in this area. One of the tasks set by the Concept ofReforming Local Self-Government and Territorial Organization of Government is to determine a reasonable territorial basis for theactivities of local self-government bodies and executive bodies capable of ensuring the availability and proper quality of public servicesprovided by such bodies.Ways of transfer of lands to communal ownership are succession, methods of acquisition provided by item 5 of Art. 83 of theLand Code, transition to communal ownership of collectively owned lands in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On Amendmentsto Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine Concerning Resolving the Issue of Collective Land Ownership, Improving Land Use Rules inAgricultural Land, Preventing Raids and Stimulating Irrigation in Ukraine”. Today, the so-called land audit, which differs significantlyfrom the land inventory and is carried out by non-governmental organizations on a commercial or grant basis, helps territorial communitiesto collect land “in a heap”.At the same time, the main, initial basis for the transfer of land to the ownership of territorial communities should be a largescaleone-time delimitation of state-owned land on land that remains in state ownership and land that becomes communal property.This is one of the tasks of the Draft Law № 2194 “On Amendments to the Land Code of Ukraine and Other Legislative Acts toImprove the System of Management and Deregulation in the Sphere of Land Relations”.

The article considers foreign experience in organizing the activities of law enforcement agencies. It is determined that the field of law enforcement is constantly in a state of dynamic transformation and improvement, which to some extent reflects the direction of national legislation and policies. It is also noted that according to modern requirements, maintaining the rule of law is one of the most important tasks of the state, so in organizing the work of law enforcement agencies, the implementation of international experience is one of the most important tasks of the rule of law. One of the current trends in the development of the legal system is its openness, which determines the possibility of using advanced foreign concepts to implement universally recognized international principles, norms and standards of human and civil rights and freedoms.It is emphasized that the following facts should be taken into account: historical traditions of legislation and law enforcement, features of socio-economic and cultural development of countries, general cultural and legal consciousness of the population, degree of interaction with government and civil society, features of national police, logistics. providing police and other important factors. International law enforcement standards have an important role to play in policing.It was found that abroad, as in Ukraine, law enforcement reform is part of administrative reform, and the direction of its implementation often depends on the overall objectives of public administration reform. The purpose of most reforms in foreign countries is to: increase the efficiency of national systems; transforming the country into a responsible employer capable of attracting a sufficient number of workers with the necessary qualifications, controlling the cost of their maintenance; increasing the confidence of the private sector and citizens in public institutions.Three models of internal security in European countries are considered: centralized or continental model (Norway, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg), decentralized model (Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Combino) (integrated) model (UK, Germany, Netherlands).

The relationship of law to antagonisms and contradictions within state socialism is explored from a Weberian and a Marxian perspective. Examining legislation, court decision making, legal control of economic behavior, and law enforcement reveals contradictions between (I) a radical participatory ideology versus muted or extinct civil society; (2) the ideology of comprehensive planning versus the impotence of law; (3) strategies aiming at total control of public life versus the emergence of a niche society outside the reach of the state; (4) regulatory norms versus the functional necessity of norm-breaking behavior; (5) reliance on a revolutionary sense of justice versus the cultivation of “doublethought”; (6) a program of total control of economic behavior versus the emergence of deviant, even criminal, forms of organization to fulfill functionally necessary but ideologically unapproved economic tasks; and finally, (7) two distinct practices of law, responsive or postliberal versus repressive. Yet, contradictions typically did not lead through conflict to subsequent reform during the state socialist era, as conflicts were repressed. When reforms were attempted, they furthered conflict and system breakdown.

France is currently going through a rather difficult period of reforms carried out by President Emmanuel Macron in order to bring the economy out of prolonged stagnation and restore the country's «greatness» in the world. Macron's reform initiatives, based on monetarist recipes and the concept of supply-side economics, are considered in the context of the global trend towards economic liberalization that began in the 1970 s and included most developed and developing countries. Until now, changes in France have been slow, with a great lag from other European countries and accompanied by mass protests of the population, because they run counter to the principles of the post-war dirigiste socio-economic model. France went through a long period of liberalization and retreat of the state, and the French model of the market economy has acquired a kind of hybrid character: it is no longer a dirigiste, but also neither a liberal model of the classical (Anglo-Saxon) type. The President set a task to bring the neoliberal transformation of the French socio-economic model to its logical end by reforming institutions that do not meet modern challenges. The article analyzes the most important reforms that were carried out by French presidents before E. Macron, in order to reduce the public sector, change labor law and collective bargaining procedures, reduce social expenditures of the state, etc. The role of E. Macron in neoliberal reforms during the presidency of F. Hollandeis shown. Particular attention is paid to the tasks and content of E. Macron's landmark reforms, including the reform of labor legislation, tax reform, the reform of the state monopoly in the field of railway transport, and the incomplete pension reform. The President has surpassed his predecessors in terms of the scale and significance of neoliberal reforms. This is unquestionably major breakthrough in neoliberal transformation, which will have an impact on the further development of the country's economy.

The purpose of this study is to analyze and to describe the implementation of administrative bureaucratic reform at Bengkulu regional office of Ministry of Law and Human Rights of Bengkulu based on Presidential Regulation Number 81 of 2010 concerning the Grand Design of Bureaucratic Reform of 2010-2025, and to analyze the obstacles in the implementation of administrative bureaucratic reform at Bengkulu regional office of Ministry of Law and Human Rights. This research was a normative legal research. The analysis of legal materials was carried out in a qualitative juridical manner. The results of the study show that: Firstly, the implementation of administrative bureaucratic reform at the Bengkulu Regional Office of the Ministry of Law and Human Rights has been carried out for the needs of Bureaucratic Reform. Secondly, there are obstacles in the implementation of administrative bureaucratic reform at the Bengkulu Regional Office of the Ministry of Law and Human Rights, namely: The juridical obstacles consist of the absence of technical legislation for performance improvement and the absence of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that can build a common perception, commitment, involvement in program implementation and bureaucratic reform activities at all levels of employees. Technical obstacles, namely the limited quantity and quality of Human Resources (HR) and facilities and infrastructure. By establishing an organizational structure based on the Regulation of the Minister of Law and Human Rights of the Republic of Indonesia Number 30 of 2018 concerning the Organization and Work Procedure of the Regional Office of the Ministry of Law and Human Rights, it can be a solution to achieve efficiency and effectiveness in the implementation of the tasks of the government bureaucratic apparatus.

In this article, we focus on the challenges for local self-government in Finland. Finnish legislation follows the Articles of the European Charter of Local self-government rather closely. We illustrate how the role of local government as service provider has led to a situation where municipalities are strictly steered by and financially dependent on the national government. Besides this, the burden of public services exposes local government to reforms. Current local government reform by national government challenges local self-government by establishing a regional level of governance. However, it can also bring opportunities for municipalities to focus more on local tasks and decrease the need for strict steering by the state.

The article is devoted to the consideration of the concept of reforming criminal justice authorities in the context of combating corruption. In the article it is analyzed the definitions of criminal justice according to different researchers, which reforms of criminal justice authorities have already been carried out during the independence of Ukraine and what results these reforms have achieved, marked mandatory tasks that should be put by any concept of criminal justice reform in the context of anti-corruption actions. The author reveals the theoretical basis of the legal category of criminal justice authorities and analyzes in detail the place and importance of the National AntiCorruption Bureau of Ukraine in the system of criminal justice authorities. In the article, the attention is drawn to the fact that reforming criminal justice agencies provides for a certain reload and introduction of new methods in activities. It was made the remark that the reform of criminal justice authorities could be the starting point for further reforms in our state in other areas of life. To conclude it was determined that the result of the reform of criminal justice activities in the field of combating corruption, when applying any concept, should be the transformation of law enforcement agencies from purely punitive and pursuing harsh methods to authorities whose main purpose is to restore violated human rights and to prevent this violations at all.

Building a reliable and effective law enforcement system is one of the main tasks of every state. With each new reform, Ukraine's law enforcement system is moving away from the Soviet model and closer to the European one. The threat to national security, the constant misunderstandings of the civilian population and law enforcement agencies, the shortcomings of the category encourage scientists to engage in research on reforming the system in the field of national legislation. However, it is necessary to start reforming such a large-scale industry by defining this category. Many effective modernization measures have been successful due to foreign experience. It is in the definition of this category that the main mission and tasks of the functioning of bodies are covered. Some countries emphasize that law enforcement agencies protect the interests of the state first and then the citizens, while others emphasize that the mission of this system is to protect citizens, peace and security, and to respect all rights and freedoms in the performance of their duties. The article also focuses on the territorial organization of the system in foreign countries, because the better the territory is controlled, the safer the lives of citizens. Necessary for a general understanding of the category is the experience of scientists in the past years, so the article highlights the quotes of scientists on this issue. It has been noted that many authors question whether the judiciary belongs to law enforcement agencies. We emphasize that the processes of European integration require the state-building structure to reform and modernize in the direction of more efficient and humane functioning of law enforcement agencies. Therefore, large-scale reform of this system in Ukraine is inevitable, because of this definition, which would reflect the main mission and objectives of the operation is necessary.

One of the primary tasks of supply-side reform is to promote the reform of fiscal and taxation systems. It is an important part of institutional innovation to coordinate fiscal and other reforms. From the perspective of the supply side, this paper discusses whether the adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies will have a positive impact on China’s capital market and economic growth. In this paper, a windows-EBM model is constructed to test the panel data of major economies between 2008 and 2016, discuss their impact on the efficiency of the capital market, and to make a comparative analysis on the strategies to improve the vitality of China’s capital market. We find that the impact of China’s macro policies on capital market efficiency during 2008-2016 shows a huge potential space for adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, because these input factors are obviously interchangeable in China’s supply-side reform. This is in line with the expected direction of China’s supply-side reform. This paper reveals the positive effect of supply-side reform on capital activity. Tax cuts and monetary policy measures are needed to balance capital markets and to ensure their active and sustainable development.

Justifications for campaign finance regulations in the United States have traditionally taken one of two approaches. The first and most common has been to allege that unrestricted campaign contributions and expenditures lend themselves to corruption, or to the appearance of corruption. The second, used far less often than the first, has argued that unchecked spending on an election compromises the principle of political equality--the idea that each individual should have equal say in the democratic process. This paper defends political equality as a value worth preserving, demonstrates that our current campaign finance system is dangerous to political equality, proposes some solutions to that problem, and evaluate the constitutionality of those solutions.

Cette thèse cherche d'abord à comprendre, en usant de l'exemple Haïtien, si les Réformes du Secteur de Sécurité menées à bien dans le cadre des interventions internationales dans des pays en crise ou en situation de post-conflit, sont efficaces dans l'accomplissement de leurs objectifs et apportent le meilleur soutien d'une manière durable aux Etats hôtes. Finalement, ce document est aussi une base de réflexion pour trouver de nouvelles solutions et pratiques à la mise en oeuvre de Réformes du Secteur de Sécurité
First of all, this thesis aims at understanding, while using the example of Haiti, if Security Sector Reforms carried out within international interventions in crisis or post-conflict countries are effective at accomplishing their objectives and providing the best support for sustainable changes to host States. Finally this document's objective is also to serve as a support in finding new solutions and new practices to successfully achieve Security Sector Reforms

Universities are increasingly adopting a neoliberal framework for education—one that is centred on employability, graduate outcomes and skills. Within this framework, teaching, assessments and subjects must adhere to the laws of the market; this prepares students for their roles in private or corporate firms and instils suitable kinds of skills for graduate employment. However, minimal attention is paid to the needs of students as holistic people, citizens, public advocates or members of their local communities, nor is attention paid to their contribution to democratic society. Specifically, subjects in the humanities and social sciences are designated as functionally useless, impractical and irrelevant. The neoliberal style of education has recently come to dominate Australian law schools. Presently, law schools focus heavily on skills, and they avoid deep training in the liberal arts or training students to think for themselves and critique the law they learn. Various academics have addressed this crisis in legal education. They have proposed, on the one hand, a return to a classical and liberal arts style of education in which law is conceptualised in its political, social and economic context. Conversely, they have also proposed a focus on critical theory and critical perspectives of law. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the adoption of a liberal arts approach to legal education through the research and proposal of a new law school curriculum in Australia. This includes proposing new teaching methods, assessments and subjects. This proposed broad liberal arts education in law aims to teach students to think for themselves and to develop their critical and analytical skills, sense of justice and injustice, their ability to comprehend and critique the law and their hard and soft transferable skills that are necessary for the broad range of jobs they will accept after graduation (beyond private and corporate practice). Specifically, this thesis aims to consider how and why law can be taught as part of a wider study of politics, history, civics, psychology and philosophy, and how it can consequently prepare students to become well-rounded citizens in their future jobs.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Law School, 2021

Public management reform is a continuous process and represents, especially in the modern world, an important requirement for successful application of reform principles and objectives in a society. The indisputable importance of public management in the globalized world is reflected in the scope and number of tasks it performs in every society, financial means it uses and allocates by public policies, the number of people it hires directly or indirectly, as well as in developmental and strategic plans which will affect the future of human civilization. In the Republic of Serbia, public management reform implies adopting vast legislation, regulation and public policies, and their implementing, which should be the primary focus of current reform activities accompanied by further harmonization with EU legislation. Furthermore, modernization of our public management is required if the state is to finally become a true citizens’ service. Using E-government the public sector across the world becomes more efficient and provides better quality service meeting transparency and responsibility standards. E-government is needed to establish and develop information society where everyone can produce, use and exchange information and knowledge thus allowing individuals, communities and peoples to reach their full potential in promoting sustainable development and improving the quality of life in a globalized world.

This chapter offers a close reading of Book V of Spenser’s Faerie Queene, which represents the reformation of law in terms of both its equitable correction and its administration. The Knight of Justice, Artegall, corrects regional law and governance across a number of historical allegories that most frequently allude to the sixteenth-century English efforts to colonise Ireland. Yet his methods and success are called into question not only through his defeat in combat by Radigund, but also through his rescue that is accomplished by his fiancé. As Britomart travels back through Faerieland, retracing the knight’s steps in order to liberate him from thraldom to the Amazon, we discover that the countryside has not been subdued in the wake of his reformation of justice. Britomart’s re-enactments of the knight’s battles re-present the activities of legal reform and governance as ongoing tasks requiring consistent magisterial presence and attention. This chapter appears at the beginning of the book not only for chronological reasons, but because the matter introduces a number of topics and contexts that will be developed at greater length in the studies that follow, including legal and character education, Aristotelian legal equity, artificial reason, and itinerant justice.

Superficially Japan looks in good shape, but underneath it has important vulnerabilities. These have entered a gently but remorselessly vicious cycle: while the ageing and shrinking of its population is becoming more entrenched thanks to low marriage and fertility rates, the country’s use of its basic resource, the human capital embodied by a well-educated population, looks stuck in a trap of surprisingly low wages, insecure work and low productivity, which in turn depresses domestic spending and tax revenues while also suppressing marriage and fertility. Gender inequality lies at the heart of all these economic and social trends. The trumpeted reforms of ‘Abenomics’, implemented since Abe Shinzo’s return to the prime ministership in December 2012, have provided monetary and fiscal fuel so as to keep the economic engines running but have so far failed to find transformative solutions for low wages, job insecurity, and low productivity, or for declining marriage rates and low fertility. Solutions are available, if governments and corporations alike can show stronger will and an unambiguous commitment. A twelve-point agenda is proposed, including public policy reforms for the national minimum wage, marriage tax, immigration rules for domestic staff, labour contract law, quotas for political representatives, childcare spending, and university admissions tests; and private actions, for companies and other organizations in the way they manage human-resources policies, paternity leave, early-career experience for female staff, and the future of women-only universities.

Antitrust law cannot directly address wage suppression that occurs as a result of search costs and job differentiation, which cause frictions in labor markets. The question arises whether other employment and labor regulations can be used to reduce the monopsony power of employers that arises from these sources, or to mitigate its ill effects. These regulations include minimum wage law, tax and wage subsidies, mandatory benefits, job protection, licensing, training, job standardization, labor law, governance reforms, and macroeconomic reform. While some of these regulations, if well-designed, can help mitigate the harms of labor monopsony, many of them are ill-suited to this task.

It was not in Francia but Lombardy that councils turned their attention to xenodochia, in what was to be the only sustained effort by Western law-makers to engage with welfare houses. This chapter explores their activity, which was the product of local concern, given voice through a new forum, the Carolingian council. It identifies a programme of reform initiated under Pope Hadrian I and then Charlemagne: restauratio, a call to restore the material inheritance of the landscape, especially buildings and public infrastructure. In Lombardy, the call brought xenodochia to the attention of councils who, over time, developed language and strategies by which to address these facilities. The Lombard capitularies offer a clear definition of xenodochia, one distinct from monasteries, which the chapter then teases out. It argues that a xenodochium was not a community but a material endowment, a gift dedicated in perpetuity to a specific task or tasks of Christian welfare. To councils, the central issue was its dispositio or institutio: the directives of a will-maker as enshrined in his or her testament. This provided a fixed constitution, particular to each xenodochium. A final section explores the implications for these findings on the character of a xenodochium’s endowment.

This chapter examines the choice of law rules that determine the law applicable to international contracts in New Zealand, comparing them to the Hague Principles. Private international law in New Zealand is still largely a common law subject, and the choice of law rules on international commercial contracts are no exception. The general position, which has been inherited from English common law, is that parties may choose the law applicable to their contract, and that the law with the closest and most real connection applies in the absence of choice. There are currently no plans in New Zealand for legislative reform, so the task of interpreting and developing the choice of law rules continues to fall to the courts. When performing this task, New Zealand courts have traditionally turned to English case law for assistance. But they may be willing, in future, to widen their scope of inquiry, given that the English rules have long since been Europeanized. It is conceivable, in this context, that the Hague Principles may be treated as a source of persuasive authority, provided they are consistent with the general principles or policies underlying the New Zealand rules.

This chapter reviews the dematerialization of securities that has been the dominant topic in securities law and regulation since the paper crunch in the late 1960s. It discusses common issues in the substantive legal framework for digital securities, including an overview over the regulation of digital securities. It also talks about the blockchain or distributed ledger technology (DLT), which refers to a group of technologies that have a database that is shared across a network of multiple sites and participants within a network that have their own identical copy of the ledger. The chapter looks at the security and accuracy of the assets stored in the ledger that are maintained by using crypto technologies. It refers to blockchain as one of the several possible data structures in a DLT system that is characterized by the fact that its entries are combined in blocks.

This chapter describes the main elements of the current financial sector activity in Hong Kong and the conditions under which they function. It highlights Hong Kong's financial markets and economy that have suffered an economic downturn following the 2019 protests and sustained by the Covid—19 pandemic. It also mentions how Hong Kong implements the principal standards and reforms adopted at the international level, particularly in relation to the resolution of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G—SIFIs). This chapter provides an overview of the monetary, banking, equity, debt, insurance, and derivatives markets in Hong Kong. It talks about Hong Kong's de facto constitution, the Basic Law, which aids the economy in maintaining its capitalist system for fifty years from 1 July 1997.

This chapter talks about the Massachusetts labor reformers who had cause to celebrate in summer 1874. After decades of disappointing defeats, the state legislature had finally yielded to the labor movement's demand for a normal working day for women. The chapter points out how the law restricted the daily working hours of women and minors to ten, noting of exceptions that were allowed in the event of mechanical disruption, but the workweek could never exceed sixty hours. The chapter considers Massachusetts on par with the United Kingdom, where the ten-hour day for women and children had been on the books since 1847. The law's supporters knew from studying the history of labor legislation in England as well as their own state that labor laws were often ignored in the absence of strong enforcement mechanisms.

This chapter talks about how Illinois enacted the Workshop and Factories Act in 1893, establishing new regulations on the employment of women and children in manufacturing, and creating the state's first factory inspection system. The system was markedly different from those of Germany and Massachusetts: not only did it grant inspectors robust policing power, but it mandated that five of the state's twelve inspectors be women. The chapter illustrates the feminist enforcement model, which was the brainchild of lifelong child labor activist Florence Kelley. The chapter recounts how Kelley made her way into the state's policy field by capitalizing on alliances and experiences gained through her affiliation with Jane Addams's Hull House in Chicago. From this position at the center of the state's nongovernmental social reform field, Kelley seized professional opportunities that opened doors to the policy field.

In modern society, the model of organization and the method of police work derive from the legal system of the state based on the development of parliamentarism, democracy and the rule of law. In developed countries of common and continental law, the dominant model of police organization and work is community policing, according to which the police and community are working together, and the police is the service of citizens. Serbia and the ex-YU member states have accepted the same model as part of the police reform. Model of police organization and method of work is in the function of performing the delegated tasks and duties, for the benefit of the community and citizens, with respect for and protection of human rights and civil liberties. The report presents the legal and institutional framework for the organization and work of the police, in the form of international and national legal sources, among which the Police Law of Republic of Serbia takes a central place. In the function of service provision, "tools" for police work - powers, measures and actions are highlighted. Finally, the initial proposals de lege ferenda for improving the legislative framework have been presented and the importance of the police as a citizen service in the context of European integration has been highlighted.

The global crisis in recent years has resulted in an inconsistent economic policy of EU member states that ranged from the policy of proclaimed liberalism to the policy of ad hoc interventionism. It is the result of a mismatch between the capacity of the nation state and its existing obligations towards its citizens. Doctrinal analyses state that, therefore, states are trying to fulfil their expected function by implementing insolvency regulations aimed at rescuing infrastructure "losers" from liquidation bankruptcy while retaining those entities that are the backbone of national development policy. In this regard, this paper intends to analyse the model of Extraordinary Management Procedure defined by the Law on the Executive Administration Procedure in Companies of Systemic Importance for the Republic of Croatia. Due to the controversy that exists on the doctrinal plan related to the implementation as well as the application of the aforementioned regulations, a lot of questions have been opened, and there is no clear answer. However, it seems useful to try to detect some problems of positive regulation and offer possible solutions to the protection of creditors and debtors during the following systemic crises. For comparison and possible suggestions de lege ferenda for the Serbian legislator, these experiences are potentially important because a reform of the regulations (and even insolvency regulation) is underway, primarily by the process of harmonization of Serbian regulations with EU regulations. The complexity of the subject of research and the set tasks were conditioned by the choice of methods, so the methodology used in the research included the study of domestic and foreign literature, relevant legislation, as well as the analysis of domestic and foreign court practices. We certainly consider it important to point out that the space that we have here does not allow us for a detailed breakdown of this issue, so we are forced to limit ourselves, in the author's opinion, to some aspects of the new bankruptcy regulations.

Abstract With the increasing of global market competition and dynamic change of market environment, consumer needs are more personal and diversified, enterprise production is more flexible. At present, the production cycle period of traditional manufacturing industry is long, delivering goods is not in time, product quality is not good and resource are not used in reason. Because of the phenomena, products are not met the requirements of market and lack of market competition ability. For changing the situation, the development direction is building concurrent agility dynamic alliance of product development. So this paper puts forward an improved fuzzy reform optimization method of design task in Concurrent engineering (CE). Using this method, enterprise can develop product rapidly to satisfy consumer requirements and have high quality, low cost, reasonable price and good service, that is because it can assign right task to right person in right time for shortening development time of product.

Multi-view multi-task learning refers to dealing with dual-heterogeneous data,where each sample has multi-view features,and multiple tasks are correlated via common views.Existing methods do not sufficiently address three key challenges:(a) saving task correlation efficiently, (b) building a sparse model and (c) learning view-wise weights.In this paper, we propose a new method to directly handle these challenges based on multiplicative sparse feature decomposition.For (a), the weight matrix is decomposed into two components via low-rank constraint matrix factorization, which saves task correlation by learning a reduced number of model parameters.For (b) and (c), the first component is further decomposed into two sub-components,to select topic-specific features and learn view-wise importance, respectively. Theoretical analysis reveals its equivalence with a general form of joint regularization,and motivates us to develop a fast optimization algorithm in a linear complexity w.r.t. the data size.Extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets validate its efficiency.

The contribution aims at providing an overview on urban planning and on 'modern' vernacular architecture of the rural founding villages built during the Agrarian Reform (1950-1970) in Italy, in the inland areas of Basilicata Region. In particular there are settlements not yet sufficiently known, in which the important of inventorying the considerable built heritage must be the objective of a necessary, urgent safeguarding. With the 'Agrarian Reform' (Law 841/1950), the Italian government carried out a redistribution to settlers of the lands of uncultivated or abandoned large estates. The purpose was to increase productivity in the reformed areas, as long as a better profitability of labor and an adequate 'social equity'. As a consequence, new villages were created that had to fulfil the task of reorganizing rural centers of socio-economic concentrations, able to reconstitute environments similar to the agglomerations from which the laborers, once employed in the latifundiums, came. Among the numerous centers built in Basilicata, Borgo Taccone is representative of this system of agrarian colonization of the Lucanian territory. The settlement, in which the modern construction techniques were broadly experimented, is the service center for farmers living in farmhouses in the surrounding funds and for this reason it was equipped with core services such as the church, the school, the post office, the clinic, cinema/theater, etc. After an initial period of demographic expansion, in the seventies the ‘Borgo’ began to depopulate and is now in a state of abandonment and decay. Despite this, this settlement, surrounded by agricultural land in a well-preserved landscape, still retains a strong formal character in both its urban and architectural layout. The contribution traces the physical, social and cultural transformation line that led this rich asset to the contemporary world, outlining a possible future cultural theoretical debate on its safeguard and sustainable enhancement.

Local self-government in Slovenia is comparable to local self-government in other Central European countries. The local self-government system is based on the Constitution of the Republic of Slovenia and the European Charter of Local Self-Government. It is particularly important that the Constitution guarantees local self-government in Slovenia, which cannot therefore be abolished. The legal regulation of local self-government is determined in the legislation, mainly by the Act on Local Self-Government, which systematically regulates local self-government. In addition to it, local self-government is regulated at the systemic level by the Municipal Financing Act and the Local Elections Act, as well as a series of laws that regulate individual areas of social life. The Local Self-Government Act defines the city municipality as a special type of municipality, which also includes the city of Ljubljana, which is defined by the constitution as the capital of the Republic of Slovenia. The legal status of the capital city is specifically determined in the special Act on the Capital City of Slovenia, which determines the position of Ljubljana as the capital. The law primarily determines the special tasks and duties of Ljubljana as the capital of Slov

Abstract It is well known that human limbs have spring-like behaviour that has been attributed to both compliance of the muscles and reflex action [Hogan, 1985; Mussa-Ivaldi et al., 1985]. These mechanics are the premise behind the Equilibrium Point (EP) Hypothesis for motor control [Bizzi et al., 1992; Shadmehr et al., 1993; Won & Hogan, 1995]. Essentially, EP theory suggests that muscles are activated such that they define a unique position of the limb in the workspace, called the virtual point, where there are no net joint moments [Bizzi et al., 1992]. (Some refer to this as the equilibrium point, but that notation can be confused with a contact equilibrium.) If an amputee using a prosthetic limb uses the EP control technique naturally, it is necessary for the prosthesis to included mechanical properties sufficiently similar to those of a natural limb to produces similar results. The necessary mechanics, and limitations of not providing them, are the bulk of the authors’ current research. The current work examines the control of contact forces. A variety of studies have examined virtual paths for unconstrained motions [Flash, 1987; Lan & Crago, 1994]. Others have implemented a predetermined virtual point path in an artificial manipulator during contact tasks [Hogan, 1987]. However, little information is available on the virtual point path required to produce desired contact properties. This study analytically and numerical investigates the virtual point path required to vary contact force without producing a motion of the limb along the surface.

Due to the collapse of the Union, there was a reduction in funding for health care costs, as well as deterioration in the infrastructure and quality of medical services. The transitional economy in the Kyrgyz Republic has identified additional features in the health system. The main ones are the low level of funding, the presence of the shadow market of medical services, inefficient structure and the prevalence of high-cost hospital treatment. The market mechanism is developing, however, without state regulation. The Kyrgyz Republic continues to reform its health-care system. The task was to improve the methods of their financing. New mechanisms for financing medical services have been introduced. Despite the reduction in the number of hospitals, the number of patients treated in hospitals has increased.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) has been received increasing attention since it does not require labels in target domain. Most existing UDA methods learn domain-invariant features by minimizing discrepancy distance computed by a certain metric between domains. However, these discrepancy-based methods cannot be robustly applied to unsupervised time series domain adaptation (UTSDA). That is because discrepancy metrics in these methods contain only low-order and local statistics, which have limited expression for time series distributions and therefore result in failure of domain matching. Actually, the real-world time series are always non-local distributions, i.e., with non-stationary and non-monotonic statistics. In this paper, we propose an Adversarial Spectral Kernel Matching (AdvSKM) method, where a hybrid spectral kernel network is specifically designed as inner kernel to reform the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) metric for UTSDA. The hybrid spectral kernel network can precisely characterize non-stationary and non-monotonic statistics in time series distributions. Embedding hybrid spectral kernel network to MMD not only guarantees precise discrepancy metric but also benefits domain matching. Besides, the differentiable architecture of the spectral kernel network enables adversarial kernel learning, which brings more discriminatory expression for discrepancy matching. The results of extensive experiments on several real-world UTSDA tasks verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Sustainable refers to development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Nowadays, there is a great interest in the issues of sustainable environmental education. The concept of «environmental education» implies such education, which is the knowledge of the symbiosis of the problems of the relationship between man, nature, culture and society. The main task of environmental education is to reveal the content of environmental concepts, categories, laws, develop interest in ecology and the need for constant updating of knowledge, develop environmental thinking, and form environmental awareness.

A partir de un análisis que no es contable ni financiero sino económico, Rincón-Castro y Delgado-Rojas (2017) calculan para Colombia las tasas efectivas promedio de tributación sobre el consumo y los factores de producción trabajo y capital para el período comprendido entre 1994 y 2016. Para su estudio los autores utilizan las Cuentas Nacionales del DANE bases 1994 y 2005. El objetivo del presente estudio es realizar los mismos cálculos y con la misma metodología para el período 2005-2019, pero con las Cuentas Nacionales base 2015. Los resultados indican que el cambio de base produjo una reducción sustancial de las tasas efectivas del trabajo y del capital. Por ejemplo, para 2016, la tasa efectiva promedio del trabajo se redujo en 3 puntos porcentuales y del capital en 6 puntos porcentuales. ¿Cuál es la explicación? Los cambios de las bases tributarias que introdujo la nueva base de la contabilidad nacional, ya que la metodología de cálculo, las definiciones de las tasas, los parámetros y los supuestos no cambian. Entre 2017 y 2019 se suman los efectos de las leyes de reforma tributaria 819 de 2016 y 1943 de 2018. Los cálculos para 2019 indican que la tasa efectiva promedio de tributación del consumo es 12,7%, del trabajo es 18% y del capital es 15%. La desagregación de la tasa del trabajo muestra que la tasa de los salarios es 2,3%, de la nómina es 2,7% y de la seguridad social es 13%. La desagregación de la tasa del capital muestra que la de los hogares, quienes son los dueños del capital, es 3,8%, mientras que la de las sociedades es 21,1%. Así, los impuestos en Colombia no son efectivamente tan altos, pero tampoco tan bajos ni tan bien repartidos.

Si bien muchos países cuentan con algún tipo de impuesto sobre los combustibles fósiles, las tasas efectivas de imposición observadas suelen ser bajas en comparación con los niveles considerados económicamente óptimos. Esta subutilización de los impuestos a los combustibles ha llevado a varios países a considerar reformas a estos gravámenes. La presente nota técnica tiene dos objetivos principales. El primero es documentar los niveles de imposición efectiva a los combustibles que existen en la práctica. Para tal fin, se compila una base de datos única, que presenta los distintos impuestos y subsidios implícitos sobre los combustibles que existen en los diferentes países del mundo. El segundo objetivo es resumir las principales lecciones que surgen de la teoría de impuestos óptimos y documentar las prácticas más frecuentes en la estructuración de los diferentes impuestos que recaen sobre los combustibles fósiles. Esto se efectúa con la finalidad de informar a los responsables de las políticas interesados en introducir reformas a los impuestos a los combustibles. Revisar las consideraciones teóricas relacionadas con estos impuestos es importante, ya que generan tensiones y sinergias entre diferentes objetivos de política, que deben tomarse en consideración para el buen diseño de los mismos. Por otra parte, conocer las prácticas más frecuentes en la estructuración de los diferentes impuestos sobre los combustibles puede resultar útil para identificar opciones de política que permitan sortear las diversas restricciones y dificultades que surgen a la hora de aprobar reformas de impuestos a los combustibles.

Con altas tasas de emigración, los hogares de la región de Centroamérica, República Dominicana, México y Haití, en particular los más vulnerables, son muy dependientes del envío de remesas familiares por parte de los migrantes. En 2020, los flujos de remesas y los movimientos migratorios se vieron sustancialmente afectados por la crisis económica y sanitaria generada por la pandemia del covid19. Además de esa crisis, los poderosos huracanes ETA y IOTA azotaron países de la región, creando las condiciones para nuevos movimientos migratorios. El objetivo de este estudio es examinar el impacto de la crisis del Covid19 sobre la situación laboral de los migrantes, el envío de remesas familiares y los retornos forzados o voluntarios. Asimismo, se evaluarán los impactos de los huracanes y de la crisis del Covid19 sobre la decisión de emigrar. Los hallazgos ponen de relieve el desplome de las remesas y los flujos migratorios al inicio de la pandemia, así como el rápido repunte de ambos para alcanzar niveles históricos. El contexto pandémico combinado con la devastación generada por los huracanes en Centroamérica puede actuar entonces como un catalizador sobre la decisión de migrar dentro o fuera del país de origen, sobre todo para los migrantes que disponen de recursos financieros y de una red de contactos. Por lo tanto, se espera una recuperación de los flujos migratorios hacia Estados Unidos, alimentada también por el cambio de administración y la esperanza de una reforma migratoria. Si bien la nueva administración de Estado Unidos es consciente de estos desafíos en el corto plazo, apunta a mayor coordinación con los países de la región y cambios estructurales cuyos efectos tomarán tiempo para materializarse.

School participation in Tanzania has increased dramatically over the past two decades: primary school enrolment increased from 4.9 million in 2001 to 10.9 million in 2020. While 81 percent of primary-school-age children are currently enrolled, over the last ten years, the primary completion rate has dropped and remains below 70 percent since 2015 (data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics).1 Despite improvements in enrolment, indicators of foundational learning remain low. According to the 2020 report of the Standard Two National Assessment (STNA), conducted by the National Examinations Council of Tanzania (NECTA), in 2019 five percent of Grade 2 students pass the benchmark for reading proficiency (“Can correctly read exactly 50 words of the passage in one minute and with 80 percent or higher comprehension”). The report finds that 17 percent of students pass the benchmark (80 percent correct) of the addition and subtraction sub-tasks. These outcomes are not the result of students’ lack of academic aspiration: according to the RISE Tanzania baseline survey, 73 percent of Grade 2 and 3 students say they would like to complete secondary school or university. In a recent report, the Global Education Evidence Advisory Panel (World Bank, 2020) asked what programmes and policies are the most cost-effective instruments for addressing the learning crisis and improving learning for all children. The report creates three categories: the “great buys” category includes programmes that provide very low-cost but salient information on the benefits, costs, and quality of education. The “good buys” category includes programmes that provide structured pedagogy, instruction targeted by learning level, merit-based scholarships and pre-school interventions. Finally, the category “promising but low-evidence” includes teacher accountability and incentive reforms. KiuFunza, a teacher performance pay programme in Tanzania, fits this last category. KiuFunza (shorthand for Kiu ya Kujifunza or Thirst to Learn) provides test-score linked cash incentives to teachers in Grades 1, 2, and 3 to increase foundational literacy and numeracy outcomes for students. The programme is managed by Twaweza East Africa, a Civil Society Organization, and was set up to provide evidence on the impact of teacher incentives in a series of experimental evaluations. This note discusses the rationale for teacher incentives in Tanzania, the design elements of KiuFunza and preliminary results for the most recent phase of KiuFunza (this phase was implemented in 2019-2021 and the impact evaluation is part of the RISE Tanzania research agenda).

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.