Academic literature on the topic 'Lapsation'

A lapsed policy is an insurance policy that has become inactive due to non-payment of premiums. The word “lapse” is an insurance topic that constantly evolves, proven by the recent increase in publications on this topic. The study explores the life insurance lapse decision through a comprehensive bibliometric analysis throughout the years, concentrating on publication trends; co-authorship networks among countries, authors, and scientific journals; and the field’s evolution. The research is based on the Scopus database. Ultimately, 178 documents were retrieved and analysed, demonstrating increased literature on insurance lapse from 1971 to 2021. The authors’ keyword co-occurrence network was also analysed for possible future directions of the field. Journals originating from the United Kingdom dominate the publication on life insurance lapsation. In contrast, an author from the United States is at the first rank in terms of the co-authorship network’s total link strength. The results may help researchers define the research objective and determine the aspects of the life insurance lapse for future research.

Economic environments have an effect on both the growth and lapsation of life insurance business. This thesis is undertaken in order to seek evidence of the significance of and relationship between specific macroeconomic and demographic factors and the demand for and lapsation of life insurance in the context of Malaysia and the United States (US). A dynamic, general-to-specific (Gets) approach is adopted in order to analyse the data. The general model (GUM) is formulated as an ADL(l,l) model to be subject to simplification. PcGets, a computer automated software for econometric model selection, which is capable of implementing the reduction subject to retaining congruence, is used to facilitate the analysis. The major findings show that, for Malaysia, the demographic factor, the change in total fertility rate in the previous period (i.e. positive and significant), is a vitally important factor in connection with life insurance demand (measured by number, by amount and by premium). Income and stock market return are important factors affecting the consumers' ability to purchase life insurance (in terms of amount and premium). The savings deposit rate is found to be related significantly to new life insurance business (by amount and by premium) but savings deposits seem not to be a competing savings instrument to life insurance. The inflation rate appears not to be an important factor affecting new life insurance business (by amount and by premium) but a high insurance cost tends to discourage the purchasing of life insurance (by number, by amount and by premium). Meanwhile, for lapsation of life insurance, both the forfeiture and surrender rates appear to be affected by the emergency fund effect with respect to the performance of the stock market in the previous period. Only fixed deposit rate is found to have the intended (positive) interest rate effect on surrender rate. The policyholders tend to surrender their life policies in favour of other investments that promise a better value for money in order to preserve their purchasing power in an environment of rising inflation rate. When the costs of obtaining insurance protection become more expensive, the forfeiture rate tends to be lower. The demographic factors tend to have a lagged influence on both the forfeiture and surrender rates. On the other hand, for the comparative study of Malaysia and the US, broadly speaking, the inflation rate, crude death rate and total fertility rate are the three factors that appear to be associated significantly with life insurance business in force (measured by number and by amount) in both Malaysia and the US. The surrender rates in Malaysia and the US are affected by a completely different set of factors. The theSiS concludes with some suggestions for useful areas for future research.

Stochastic solvency testing methods have existed for more than 20 years, yet there has been little research conducted in this area, particularly in Australia. This is for a number of reasons, the most pertinent of which being the lack of computing capabilities available in the past to implement more sophisticated techniques. However, recent advances in computing have made stochastic solvency testing possible in practice and have resulted in a trend towards this being done in advanced studies. ¶ The purpose of this thesis is to develop a realistic solvency testing model in a form that can be implemented by Australian Life Insurers, in anticipation that the Australian insurance regulator, APRA, will ultimately follow the world trend and require stochastic solvency testing to be carried out in Australia. The model is constructed from three interconnected stochastic sub-models used to describe the economic environment and the mortality and lapsation experience of the portfolio of policies under consideration. Australian economic and Life Insurance data is used to fit a number of possible sub-models, such as generalised linear models, over-dispersion models and asset models, and the ``best'' model is selected in each case. The selected models are a modified CAS/SOA economic sub-model; either a Poisson or negative binomial (NB1) distribution (depending on the policy type considered) as the mortality sub-model; and a normal-Poisson lapsation sub-model. ¶ Based on tests carried out using this model, it is demonstrated that, for portfolios of level and yearly-renewable term insurance business, the current deterministic solvency capital requirements provide little protection against insolvency. In fact, for the test portfolios of term insurance policies considered, the deterministic capital requirements have levels of sufficiency of less than 2% (on a Value at Risk basis) when compared to the change in capital distribution over a three year time horizon. This is of concern, as yearly-renewable term insurance comprises a significant volume of Life Insurance business in Australia, with there being over 426,000 yearly-renewable term insurance policies on the books of Australian Life Insurers in 1999 and more business expected since then. ¶ A sensitivity analysis shows that the results of the stochastic asset requirement calculations are sensitive to the choice of sub-model used to forecast economic variables and to the choice of formulae used to describe the mean mortality and lapsation rates. The implication of this is that, if APRA were to require Life Insurers to calculate their solvency capital requirements on a stochastic basis, some guidance would need to be provided regarding the components of the solvency testing model used. The model is not, however, sensitive to whether an allowance is made for mortality or lapsation rate over-dispersion, nor to whether dependency relationships between mortality rates, lapsation rates and the economy are allowed for. Thus, over-dispersion and dependency relationships between the sub-models can be ignored in a stochastic solvency testing model without significantly impacting the calculated solvency requirements.

... ¶ The purpose of this thesis is to develop a realistic solvency testing model in a form that can be implemented by Australian Life Insurers, in anticipation that the Australian insurance regulator, APRA, will ultimately follow the world trend and require stochastic solvency testing to be carried out in Australia. The model is constructed from three interconnected stochastic sub-models used to describe the economic environment and the mortality and lapsation experience of the portfolio of policies under consideration. Australian economic and Life Insurance data is used to fit a number of possible sub-models, such as generalised linear models, over-dispersion models and asset models, and the ``best'' model is selected in each case. The selected models are a modified CAS/SOA economic sub-model; either a Poisson or negative binomial (NB1) distribution (depending on the policy type considered) as the mortality sub-model; and a normal-Poisson lapsation sub-model. ¶ ...

In 1962, Pope John XXIII opened the Second Vatican Council with the prophecy that ‘a new day is dawning on the Church, bathing her in radiant splendour’. Desiring ‘to impart an ever increasing vigour to the Christian life of the faithful’, the Council Fathers devoted particular attention to the laity, and set in motion a series of sweeping reforms. The most significant of these centred on refashioning the Church’s liturgy. Over fifty years on, however, the statistics speak for themselves—or seem to. In America, only 15% of cradle Catholics say that they attend Mass on a weekly basis; meanwhile, 35% no longer even tick the ‘Catholic box’ on surveys. In Britain, of those raised Catholic, just 13% still attend Mass weekly, and 37% say they have ‘no religion’. But is this all the fault of Vatican II, and its runaway reforms? Or are wider social, cultural, and moral forces primarily to blame? Catholicism is not the only Christian group to have suffered serious declines since the 1960s. If anything Catholics exhibit higher church attendance, and better retention, than most Protestant churches do. If Vatican II is not the cause of Catholicism’s crisis, might it instead be the secret to its (comparative) success? Mass Exodus is the first serious historical and sociological study of Catholic lapsation and disaffiliation. Drawing on a wide range of theological, historical, and sociological sources, it also offers a comparative study of secularization across two famously contrasting religious cultures: Britain and the USA.

The late 1940s and 1950s are rightly regarded as a period of social upheaval and restructuring on both sides of Atlantic. The post-war Baby Boom, the GI Bill, the Cold War, suburbanization, growing prosperity, urban regeneration, social mobility, road building, and car and television ownership all form part of this story. These years are also often viewed in retrospect as a ‘boom time’ for mainstream religion: a time of growing devotion, church building, and—among Catholics particularly—growing self-confidence and social acceptance. Yet under the surface, cracks were beginning to form, with lapsation (or leakage) a source of growing anxiety. This chapter narrates the socio-religious history of this period, in light of three theoretical lenses: social network theory, plausibility structures, and Credibility Enhancing Displays (CREDs).