Journal articles on the topic 'Land Use Scenario'
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Gregor, Brian. "Land Use Scenario DevelopeR." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2003, no. 1 (January 2007): 93–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2003-12.
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HAMILTON, CHRISTOPHER M., WAYNE E. THOGMARTIN, VOLKER C. RADELOFF, ANDREW J. PLANTINGA, PATRICIA J. HEGLUND, SEBASTIAN MARTINUZZI, and ANNA M. PIDGEON. "Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change." Environmental Conservation 42, no. 1 (May 22, 2014): 12–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892914000174.
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SUMMARYLand-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.
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Ciaian, P. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 53, No. 12 (January 7, 2008): 565–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/900-agricecon.
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This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.
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Lacher, Iara, Thomas Akre, William J. McShea, Marissa McBride, Jonathan R. Thompson, and Craig Fergus. "Engaging Regional Stakeholders in Scenario Planning for the Long-Term Preservation of Ecosystem Services in Northwestern Virginia." Case Studies in the Environment 3, no. 1 (December 31, 2019): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/cse.2018.001180.
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This case study describes the application of a framework for developing stakeholder-driven scenarios of the future. The purpose of these scenarios is to inform land use planning toward the protection of ecosystems and derivable ecosystem services in Northwestern Virginia. We held two scenario development workshops with regional experts in conservation, agriculture, land use planning, policy, and economic development to create scenarios of land use in the northern Piedmont and northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. We structured the workshops around a framework that guided stakeholders through several steps eventually resulting in four unique scenarios describing the region in 50 years. Scenario narratives were defined by the intersection of highly influential and uncertain drivers of change relevant to land use planning and ecosystem services. Participants from the northern Shenandoah Valley region selected population growth and climate change adaptation as their scenario defining drivers, while participants from the northern Piedmont region selected planning strategy and climate change impact as their scenario defining drivers. Participants fleshed out scenarios into descriptive narratives that incorporated qualitative and quantitative measures of change. Details from the scenario narratives informed land use change models to further quantify tradeoffs between land use planning decisions and ecosystem services. Individuals interested in using scenario planning to guide research efforts, conservation, or land use planning, or even to broaden perspectives on how to view the future, will find value in this case study.
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Zhan, Jinyan, Feng Wu, Chenchen Shi, Fan Zhang, and Zhihui Li. "Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/592121.
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Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.
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Jiang, Honglei, Xia Xu, Mengxi Guan, Lingfei Wang, Yongmei Huang, and Yinghui Liu. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China." Sustainability 11, no. 13 (July 2, 2019): 3627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11133627.
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Land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have been affected by ecological processes as well as socioeconomic and human activities, resulting in several environmental problems. The study of the human–environment system combined with land use/land cover dynamics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We aimed to provide an integrated model that couples land use, socioeconomic influences, and ecosystem processes to explore the future dynamics of land use under two scenarios in China. Under Scenario A, the yield of grain continues to increase, and under Scenario B, the yield of grain remains constant. This study created a LULCC model by integrating a simple global socioeconomic model, a Terrestrial ecosystem simulator (TESim), and a land use allocation model. The results were analyzed by comparing spatiotemporal differences under predicted land use conditions in the two alternative scenarios. The simulation results showed patterns that varied between the two scenarios. In Scenario A, grassland will expand in the future and a large reduction in cropland will be observed. In Scenario B, the augmented expansion of cropland and a drastic shrinkage of forest area will be the main land use conversion features. Scenario A is more promising because more land is preserved for ecological restoration and urbanization, which is in line with China’s Grain for Green Program. Economic development should be based on ecological protection. The results are expected to add insight to sustainable land use development and regional natural resource management in China.
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Yuan, Yongwei, Tao Zhao, Weimin Wang, Shaohui Chen, and Feng Wu. "Projection of the Spatially Explicit Land Use/Cover Changes in China, 2010–2100." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/908307.
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Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change. This study predicted the future structure of land use/cover on the basis of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and an econometric model with the socioeconomic factors as the driving forces. The future spatial pattern of land use/cover in China was simulated with the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) under the Business as Usual scenario, Rapid Economic Growth scenario and Cooperate Environmental Sustainability scenario. The simulation results showed that the land use/land cover in China will change continually due to the human activities and climate change, and the spatial pattern of land use/cover will also change as time goes by. Besides, the spatial pattern of land cover in China under the three scenarios is consistent on the whole, but with some regional differences. Built-up area will increase rapidly under the three scenarios, while most land cover types will show a decreasing trend to different degrees under different scenarios. The simulation results can provide an underlying land surface data and reference to the methodology research on the prediction of LUCC.
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Hoque, Muhammad Ziaul, Shenghui Cui, Imranul Islam, Lilai Xu, and Jianxiong Tang. "Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh." Sustainability 12, no. 5 (March 9, 2020): 2112. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12052112.
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Assessing the effects of different land use scenarios on subsequent changes in ecosystem service has great implications for sustainable land management. Here, we designed four land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, such as business-as-usual development (BAUD), economic development priority (EDP), ecological protection priority (EPP), and afforestation development priority (ADP), through a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, and their effects on ecosystem service values (ESVs) were predicted, using historical LULC maps and ESV coefficients of the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh. Findings revealed that agricultural and mangrove forest lands experienced the greatest decreases, while rural and urban settlement land had the greatest increases, leading to a total ESV decrease of US$105.34 million during 1988-2018. The scenario analysis indicated that ESV in 2038 would also decrease by US$41.37 million and US$16.38 million under the BAUD and EDP scenarios, respectively, while ESV will increase by US$60.61 million and US$130.95 million under the EPP and ADP scenarios, respectively. However, all the future land use scenarios will lead to 1.65%, 10.21%, 7.58%, and 6.75% gaps in total food requirements, respectively. Hence, from the perspective of maximizing ESVs and minimizing the trade-offs in food gaps, the ADP scenario could be the optimal land management policy for the studied landscape.
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Hamad, Rahel, Heiko Balzter, and Kamal Kolo. "Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios." Sustainability 10, no. 10 (September 25, 2018): 3421. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10103421.
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Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.
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Purwitaningsih, Santika, Adjie Pamungkas, Prima Tama Setyasa, Rahel Putri Pamungkas, Ahmad Rizky Alfian, and Shafira Aulia Rosyida Irawan. "Flood-reduction scenario based on land use in Kedurus river basin using SWAT hydrology model." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 7, no. 2 (November 1, 2020): 87–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.7.2.87-94.
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The rapid growth population phenomenon has causes excessive land demand for residential and economic activity. Moreover, the rapid urbanization also increases the contribution of land constrains. Land conversion from conservation to cultivation uses affects the surface runoff volume that leads to flooding. According to these problems, it is necessary to take steps to control flood in Kedurus Watershed. One of the proper urban development concept is the Water Sensitive City (WSC). The protection against flood in WSC can be accomplished with the land use arrangement that can reduces the surface runoff. The aim of this research is to determine the proper land use scenario to reduce floods in Kedurus Watershed. In order to reach this aim, the writer uses sensitivity analysis to identify the proper land use scenario to be applied in the watershed and SWAT to select the best scenario. The efforts to reduce flood through the land use scenario (scenario 2) could reduce the flood volume by 44,320.32 m3 or 8.11% of the total volume of flood in the area. The average reduction of flood volume in each sub basins is 12,92% and the highest number of reduction is 65,67% (sub basin 22).
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Xu, Xia, Mengxi Guan, Honglei Jiang, and Lingfei Wang. "Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China." Sustainability 11, no. 18 (September 8, 2019): 4909. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11184909.
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Climatic, socio-economic, geophysical, and human activity factors, among others, influence land use patterns. However, these driving factors also have different relationships with each other. Combining machine learning methods and statistical models is a good way to simulate the dominant land use types. The Luan River basin is located in a farming-pastoral transitional zone and is an important ecological barrier between Beijing and Tianjin. In this study, we predicted future land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2020 in the Luan River’s upper and middle reaches under three scenarios—the natural scenario, the ecological scenario, and the sustainable scenario. The results indicate that cultivated land will decrease while the forested areas will increase quantitatively in the future. Built-up areas would increase quickly in the natural scenario, and augmented expansion of forest would be the main features of land use changes in both the ecological scenario and the sustainable scenario. Regarding the spatial pattern, different land use patterns will be aggregated and patches will become larger. Our findings for the scenario analysis of land use changes can provide a reference case for sustainable land use planning and management in the upper and middle Luan River basin.
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Wilson, Tamara S., Nathan D. Van Schmidt, and Ruth Langridge. "Land-Use Change and Future Water Demand in California’s Central Coast." Land 9, no. 9 (September 14, 2020): 322. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land9090322.
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Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling from a historical land change record: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU; 1992–2016) and a recent-modern scenario (RM; 2002–2016). We modeled the scenarios in the stochastic, empirically based, spatially explicit LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model at a high resolution (270-m) for the years 2001–2100 across 10 Monte Carlo simulations, applying current land zoning restrictions. Under the BAU scenario, regional water demand increased by an estimated ~222.7 Mm3 by 2100, driven by the continuation of perennial cropland expansion as well as higher than modern urbanization rates. Since 2000, mandates have been in place restricting new development unless adequate water resources could be identified. Despite these restrictions, water demand dramatically increased in the RM scenario by 310.6 Mm3 by century’s end, driven by the projected continuation of dramatic orchard and vineyard expansion trends. Overall, increased perennial cropland leads to a near doubling to tripling perennial water demand by 2100. Our scenario projections can provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures based on observed land change and water use trends, helping to better inform land and resource management decisions.
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Capitani, Claudia, Arnout van Soesbergen, Kusaga Mukama, Isaac Malugu, Boniface Mbilinyi, Nurdin Chamuya, Bas Kempen, et al. "Scenarios of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Their Multiple Impacts on Natural Capital in Tanzania." Environmental Conservation 46, no. 1 (September 18, 2018): 17–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892918000255.
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SummaryReducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus the conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) requires information on land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) and carbon emission trends from the past to the present and into the future. Here, we use the results of participatory scenario development in Tanzania to assess the potential interacting impacts on carbon stock, biodiversity and water yield of alternative scenarios where REDD+ is or is not effectively implemented by 2025, a green economy (GE) scenario and a business as usual (BAU) scenario, respectively. Under the BAU scenario, LULCCs will cause 296 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) national stock loss by 2025, reduce the extent of suitable habitats for endemic and rare species (mainly in encroached protected mountain forests) and change water yields. In the GE scenario, national stock loss decreases to 133 MtC. In this scenario, consistent LULCC impacts occur within small forest patches with high carbon density, water catchment capacity and biodiversity richness. Opportunities for maximizing carbon emission reductions nationally are largely related to sustainable woodland management, but also contain trade-offs with biodiversity conservation and changes in water availability.
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Purnomo, Didit. "The Phenomenon of Migrant Communities, Food Security and Their Participation." JEJAK 10, no. 1 (March 10, 2017): 48–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v10i1.9126.
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The study aimed to analyze and describe a strategy of food security achievement through land use at an area of migrant community. It was located in Wonogiri regency(an area with high migration), Central Java, Indonesia. It employed a mixed-method: quantitative and qualitative approach. The two approaches were used in the survey. The data collections used focus group discussions, in-depth interviews with key informants and participant observations. The results of the study formulated two strategies: land use strength and farmer institutional empowerment. The strategy of land use strength was divided into two scenarios. Scenario 1 referred to a maximal land use through essential food plant and agricultural extension (PPL). Scenario 2 referred to a non-maximal land use through diversification of food plant with a jajar legowo technique. The strategy of farmer institutional empowerment consisted of two scenarios. Scenario 1 referred to a high farmer institutional empowerment trough accompaniment. Scenario 2 referred to a low farmer institutional empowerment through accompaniment with standardization and development.
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Liu, Wei Ling, Lin Bo Zhang, and Jing Hai Zhu. "Prediction and Analysis of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone, China." Applied Mechanics and Materials 71-78 (July 2011): 4430–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.71-78.4430.
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Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) is an important factor of global change. In this study, the LUCC of Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone, the typical area of urbanization in China, was simulated by applying CLUE-S model under the historical trend scenario and policy scenario two scenarios. Transfer matrix and landscape index were also applied to analyze the change of landscape pattern. The results show that, from 1988 to 2007, the area of construction land was considerably increased. However, the area of forest, water and farmland were greatly decreased. The results were mainly caused by the rapid growth of economic, population and accelerated urbanization. These changes have caused landscape fragmentation in this study area. In general, the trends of landscape changes under two scenarios were unsustainable in this area.
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Jiang, Honglei, Xia Xu, Lingfei Wang, and Tong Zhang. "Integrating Ecosystem Service Values and Economic Benefits for Sustainable Land Use Management in Semi-Arid Regions in Northern China." Sustainability 13, no. 18 (September 18, 2021): 10431. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su131810431.
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Studies on land use structural optimization can support the sustainability of land resources. The Taipusi Banner lies in the arid and semiarid area of northern China, with rapid economic development and a vulnerable ecological condition. Taking the Taipusi Banner as a research case, we adopted a land use map and statistical data, and employed the ecosystem process model to establish five scenarios, including an economically optimal scenario, an ecologically optimal scenario, a comprehensively optimal scenario, a status quo, and a projected scenario. Based on multi-objective linear programming, the land use demand was optimized; then, the CLUE-S model and adaptability evaluation were adopted to establish spatial patterns. The ecological and economic benefits were then analyzed and policy suggestions are provided. The main results include the following: (1) The optimization outputs of various scenarios show that under optimization, cropland and forestland increased by 9.13% and 18.9%, respectively, and grassland decreased by 9.81%. (2) The land use optimization shows that comprehensive optimization aimed at achieving comprehensive benefits, ecological benefits, and economic benefits increased these benefits by 3.89%, 2.1%, and 6.2%, respectively. Compared with other scenarios, focusing on the comprehensive benefits of land use can result in the greatest increase in benefits to improve sustainability land resources. Land use optimization must consider not only the optimization of both the quantity and configuration but also the dimensions of both ecology and the economy. Land use should be based on a land suitability evaluation and optimization of the land use spatial configuration to update ineffective land uses and should gradually adjust both the ecological and engineering measures.
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Su, Longqiang. "Response of land use changes on ecological water diversion in midstream of the Heihe River Basin." MATEC Web of Conferences 246 (2018): 02017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201824602017.
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Based on the land use data in midstream of the Heihe River Basin in 1986, the CLUE-S model was used to simulate the land use distribution in 2000. In addition, the simulated map was verified by the land use map in 2000. Then the spatial pattern of land used in 2015 under the scenario without water diversion was simulated. The results show that the CLUE-S model could be applied to simulate the spatial pattern of land use changes in midstream of the Heihe River basin. Under both scenarios, cultivated land and construction land area showed a tendency of increasing. Forestland, pastureland and unused land showed a tendency of decreasing, while the convert tendency from unused land to other land use types was accelerated. The water surface area decreased under the scenario without water diversion, while under ecological water diversion scenario it showed a tendency of increasing. After the implementation of water diversion, the speed was accelerated. Under the scenario without water diversion, the main types of land use changes were cultivated land, pastureland and water surface area. Conversely, they were cultivated land, pastureland and unused land.
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Liu, Hang, Riken Homma, Qiang Liu, and Congying Fang. "Multi-Scenario Prediction of Intra-Urban Land Use Change Using a Cellular Automata-Random Forest Model." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 8 (July 26, 2021): 503. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10080503.
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The simulation of future land use can provide decision support for urban planners and decision makers, which is important for sustainable urban development. Using a cellular automata-random forest model, we considered two scenarios to predict intra-land use changes in Kumamoto City from 2018 to 2030: an unconstrained development scenario, and a planning-constrained development scenario that considers disaster-related factors. The random forest was used to calculate the transition probabilities and the importance of driving factors, and cellular automata were used for future land use prediction. The results show that disaster-related factors greatly influence land vacancy, while urban planning factors are more important for medium high-rise residential, commercial, and public facilities. Under the unconstrained development scenario, urban land use tends towards spatially disordered growth in the total amount of steady growth, with the largest increase in low-rise residential areas. Under the planning-constrained development scenario that considers disaster-related factors, the urban land area will continue to grow, albeit slowly and with a compact growth trend. This study provides planners with information on the relevant trends in different scenarios of land use change in Kumamoto City. Furthermore, it provides a reference for Kumamoto City’s future post-disaster recovery and reconstruction planning.
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Tang, Feng, Meichen Fu, Li Wang, Wanjuan Song, Jiangfeng Yu, and Yanbin Wu. "Dynamic evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality under the impact of land-use change in the Huaihe River Economic Belt, China." PLOS ONE 16, no. 4 (April 5, 2021): e0249566. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249566.
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Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the biodiversity provided by ecosystem. Estimating and scenario-simulating the dynamic evolution and future development trends of habitat quality under the influence of land-use change is significant in regional biodiversity conservation, formulating land-use planning, and maintaining the ecological environmental sustainability. In this article, we included the Huaihe River Economic Belt as the area of study because of its vital location in China and applied the CA–Markov and InVEST models to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality and to simulate the future development trends of habitat quality under three different land-use scenarios: fast urban growth scenario, farmland conservation-oriented scenario, and ecological conservation-oriented scenario. The results showed that the land-use change in the Huaihe River Economic Belt was mostly represented by the continuous increase of the built-up area, whereas other land types all declined in area from 1995 to 2015. The land-use changes under these three abovementioned alternative future scenarios with different development orientations were considerably different. The built-up area has been shown to expand rapidly to occupy other land types on a large scale under the fast urban growth scenario. Urban land increased slightly and a large area of rural residential land would be converted into farmland under the farmland conservation-oriented scenario. The built-up area and farmland might decrease while woodland, grassland and water would increase in extent of areas under the ecological conservation-oriented scenario. Habitat quality has been shown to be generally poor, continuing to decline from 1995 to 2015, while its spatial distribution was higher in the southwest and northeast areas and lower in the central regions. The future habitat quality would display a downward trend under the fast urban growth and farmland conservation-oriented scenarios with a further deterioration of the ecological environment, while the ecological conservation-oriented scenario predicted the converse trend that the ecological environment would be improved productively. This study may be useful for understanding the impact of land-use dynamics on biodiversity. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the decision-makers to formulate biodiversity conservation and land management policies.
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Kurniawan, Anung, and B. G. C. M. (Bart) Krol. "Spatio Temporal Analysis of Land Use Change for Supporting Landslide Exposure Assessment." Indonesian Journal of Geography 46, no. 2 (December 31, 2014): 104. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/ijg.5781.
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Located in landslide prone areas, Cipanas and Pacet sub-districts are placed in areas where land uses are very dynamic. Land use change analysis is needed in these sub-districts for assessing its pattern and the driving factors that caused the change. Moreover, the results from the analysis can be used as input for land use change modeling to predict land use in the future for supporting landslide exposure assessment. ἀe objective of this research is to assess spatio temporal dynamic of landslide exposure by integrating land use change modeling using CLUE-S and landslide exposure assessment. ἀe obtained Kappa value was classiḀed as high agreement. Future land use prediction was conducted by considering three scenarios, baseline scenario (no restriction), scenario 1 (restriction in conservation area), and scenario 3 (restriction in conservation area and landslide prone area). Result of future land use prediction year 2031 in baseline scenario dominated by settlement and infrastructure expansion and forest conversion into another land use. However, implementation of scenario 1 and 2 in the model, were successfully restricts forest conversion and development of settle-ment and infrastructure in landslide prone area. Landslide exposure assessment was conducted by combining weighted asset map and landslide susceptibility map. ἀere were two type of asset considered in this research, social and physical asset. Population density was applied as a factor for social asset, while land use was applied as a factor for physical asset. Weight of assets and their factors was determined based on experts opinion by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach. ἀe result landslide exposure assessment shows that high and medium landslide exposure area follow pat-tern of settlement and infrastructure land use. Future landslide exposure assessment by considering baseline scenario resulted in the increasing of high landslide exposure area in year 2031. On the other hand, by applying restriction in scenario 1 and 2, high landslide exposure can be reduced.
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Sadeghi, Sajad, Bahram Saghafian, and Mohsen Najarchi. "Assessment of impacts of change in land use and climatic variables on runoff in Tajan River Basin." Water Supply 20, no. 7 (July 29, 2020): 2779–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2020.169.
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Abstract The main objective of the present study was to investigate runoff response to climate variables as well as landuse change over the past 30 years in Tajan River Basin, using the SWAT model. After the model calibration, four different scenarios were simulated and compared. Comparison of simulated runoff results determined from different scenarios indicated that climatic variables reduced the amount of runoff while the landuse change increased this amount in most months of the year. Simulated runoff under three landuse scenarios in all months demonstrated that the runoff achieved from scenario 1 was smaller than scenarios 2 and 4. In scenario 4, the runoff amount increased by 3–21% and 0.8–13% in Kordkheil station compared to those of scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. Furthermore, the increase in runoff for scenario 4 is 3–19% and 2–12% in Rig Cheshmeh station relative to those of scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. Nonetheless, the maximum change in runoff was only 6% under climatic variables. Hence, landuse had more significant impacts on the runoff compared to climatic variables.
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Anuradha Sharma et al.,, Anuradha Sharma et al ,. "Changing Scenario of Land use and Land Cover in Leh District." International Journal of Human Resource Management and Research 9, no. 3 (2019): 9–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.24247/ijhrmrjun20192.
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Genet, Agumassie. "Population Growth and Land Use Land Cover Change Scenario in Ethiopia." International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy 8, no. 4 (2020): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepp.20200804.12.
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Brown, Calum, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell. "How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change." Earth System Dynamics 12, no. 1 (February 23, 2021): 211–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021.
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Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European integrated land use models that utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios but which adopt fundamentally different modelling paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model, and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatially aggregate and disaggregate land use changes and ecosystem service supply levels in food, forest and associated environmental systems. We find that the models produce very different results in some scenarios, with simulated food production varying by up to half of total demand and the extent of intensive agriculture varying by up to 25 % of the EU land area. The agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of land abandonment in large parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios in which economic and other scenario conditions prevent the changes in prices and responses required to approach economic equilibrium. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so it provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel and transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change, particularly given the substantive differences that currently exist in the outcomes of such models.
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Woldemichael, A. T., F. Hossain, and R. Pielke Sr. "Evaluation of surface properties and atmospheric disturbances caused by post-dam alterations of land use/land cover." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 9 (September 26, 2014): 3711–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3711-2014.
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Abstract. This study adopted a differential land-use/land-cover (LULC) analysis to evaluate dam-triggered land–atmosphere interactions for a number of LULC scenarios. Two specific questions were addressed: (1) can dam-triggered LULC heterogeneities modify surface and energy budget, which, in turn, change regional convergence and precipitation patterns? (2) How extensive is the modification in surface moisture and energy budget altered by dam-triggered LULC changes occurring in different climate and terrain features? The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS, version 6.0) was set up for two climatologically and topographically contrasting regions: the American River watershed (ARW), located in California, and the Owyhee River watershed (ORW), located in eastern Oregon. For the selected atmospheric river precipitation event of 29 December 1996 to 3 January 1997, simulations of three pre-defined LULC scenarios are performed. The definition of the scenarios are (1) the "control" scenario, representing the contemporary land use, (2) the "pre-dam" scenario, representing the natural landscape before the construction of the dams and (3) the "non-irrigation" scenario, representing the condition where previously irrigated landscape in the control is transformed to the nearby land-use type. Results indicated that the ARW energy and moisture fluxes were more extensively affected by dam-induced changes in LULC than the ORW. Both regions, however, displayed commonalities in the modification of land–atmosphere processes due to LULC changes, with the control–non-irrigation scenario creating more change than the control–pre-dam scenarios. These commonalities were: (1) the combination of a decrease in temperature (up to 0.15 °C) and an increase at dew point (up to 0.25 °C) was observed; (2) there was a larger fraction of energy partitioned to latent heat flux (up to 10 W m−2) that increased the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and resulted in a larger convective available potential energy (CAPE); (3) low-level wind-flow variation was found to be responsible for pressure gradients that affected localized circulations, moisture advection and convergence. At some locations, an increase in wind speed up to 1.6 m s−1 maximum was observed; (4) there were also areas of well-developed vertical motions responsible for moisture transport from the surface to higher altitudes that enhanced precipitation patterns in the study regions.
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Woldemichael, A. T., F. Hossain, and R. Pielke. "Evaluation of surface properties and atmospheric disturbances caused by post-dam alterations of land-use/land-cover." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 11, no. 5 (May 16, 2014): 5037–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-5037-2014.
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Abstract. This study adopted a differential land-use/land-cover (LULC) analysis to evaluate dam-triggered land–atmosphere interactions for a number of LULC scenarios. Two specific questions were addressed: (1) can dam-triggered LULC heterogeneities modify surface and energy budget which, in turn, change regional convergence and precipitation patterns? and (2) how extensive is the modification in surface moisture and energy budget altered by dam-triggered LULC changes occurring in different climate and terrain features? The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS, version 6.0) was set up for two climatologically and topographically contrasting regions: the American River Watershed (ARW) located in California and the Owyhee River Watershed (ORW) located in eastern Oregon. For the selected atmospheric river precipitation event of 29 December 1996 to 3 January 1997, simulations of three pre-defined LULC scenarios are performed. The definition of the scenarios are: (1) the control scenario representing the contemporary land-use, (2) the pre-dam scenario representing the natural landscape before the construction of the dams and (3) the non-irrigation scenario representing the condition where previously irrigated landscape in the control is transformed to the nearby land-use type. Results indicated that the ARW energy and moisture fluxes were more extensively affected by dam-induced changes in LULC than the ORW. Both regions, however, displayed commonalities in the modification of land–atmosphere processes due to LULC changes, with the control–non-irrigation scenario creating more change than the control–pre-dam scenarios. These commonalities were: (1) the combination of a decrease in temperature (up to 0.15 °C) and an increase in dewpoint (up to 0.25 °C) was observed, (2) there was a larger fraction of energy partitioned to latent heat flux (up to 10 W m−2) that increased the amount of water vapor to the atmosphere and resulted in a larger convective available potential energy (CAPE), (3) low level wind flow variation was found to be responsible for pressure gradients that affected localized circulations, moisture advection and convergence. At some locations, an increase in wind speed up to 1.6 m s−1 maximum was observed, (4) there were also areas of well developed vertical motions responsible for moisture transport from the surface to higher altitudes that enhanced precipitation patterns in the study regions.
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Barredo, José I., and Guy Engelen. "Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation." Sustainability 2, no. 5 (May 11, 2010): 1327–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su2051327.
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Long, Ying, and Yongping Zhang. "Land-use pattern scenario analysis using planner agents." Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 42, no. 4 (January 2015): 615–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/b130012p.
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Bartholomew, Keith. "Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality." Transportation 34, no. 4 (November 24, 2006): 397–412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-006-9108-2.
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Huq, Md Habibul, and Md Mafizur Rahman. "Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Dhaka Eastern Region and Its Impact on Surface Run-off." MIST INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 8 (July 21, 2020): 35–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.47981/j.mijst.08(01)2020.169(35-47).
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The aim of this study is to identify the impending urbanization-led land-use and land-cover (LULC) change of Dhaka Eastern Region (DER) and assessing its impact on surface runoff. Remotely sensed image data and proposed land-use plans for DER is analyzed and mapped in this study to detect the changes of LULC. A faster pace of land transformation was observed during 2016-17 from unpaved to the paved surface. Four post-developed LULC scenarios were predicted from the classified Landsat imagery of 2016-17 with increasing imperviousness. Runoff was estimated by SCS-CN method integrating RS and GIS tools. LULC changes according to land cover classes were assimilated with the hydrologic soil groups and then runoff depths were estimated for annual rainfall events in DER. Like the slower trend of urbanization, area-weighted CN also increased slowly during 2016-17 but followed a moderate leap in RDP and scenario-1. However, CN dropped in scenario-2 mainly due to the change in land-cover by infilling of highly permeable hydrologic soils. Predicted scenario-3 and 4 resulted in higher CN respectively because of increasing imperviousness in LULC. Higher CN resulted in higher runoff and more drainage requirements. RDP scenario or the predicted scenario-1 with CN 84 is potentially a viable LULC option for DER by 2035 and beyond that may cause more than 30% to 50% runoff comparing to the representative 2010 LULC condition.
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Chotchaiwong and Wijitkosum. "Predicting Urban Expansion and Urban Land Use Changes in Nakhon Ratchasima City Using A CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios." Land 8, no. 9 (September 17, 2019): 140. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land8090140.
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This study focused on the prediction of land-use changes in Nakhon Ratchasima city using a CA-Markov Model with GIS. Satellite images taken by Landsat-5 (1992), Landsat-7 (2002) and THEOS (2016) were used to predict land use in 2026. In 1992, the most proportion of land usage was built-up areas (47.76%) and followed by green areas (37.45%), bare lands (13.19%), and water bodies (1.60%), respectively. In 2002, the land use comprised built-up areas (56.04%), green areas (35.52%), bare lands (4.80%) and water bodies (3.63%). By 2016, urbanisation had changed the land use pattern, which comprised built-up areas (70.80%), green areas (20.78%), bare lands (6.37%), and water bodies (2.03%). The data were analysed using a change detection matrix and revealed an increase in built-up area at the expense of all other types, especially green areas. The results were in accordance with the prediction model created in two scenarios. Scenario 1 assumed city expansion following past trends, built-up areas (85.88%), green areas (11.67%), bare lands (2.15%), and water bodies (0.30%). Scenario 2 assumed city expansion in accordance with the national strategy, built-up areas (74.91%), green areas (15.77%), bare lands (8.48%), and water bodies (0.84%). The results indicated an expansion of built-up areas and a shrinking of green areas. In Scenario 2, urban expansion was less than in Scenario 1, and preserving the green area seemed more feasible due to governmental restrictions. The results indicated that planning the urbanisation according to the policies development plans, especially in specific areas, contributed to a more efficient urbanisation growth. The city should provide to promote the use of floor area ratio (FAR) and open space ratio (OSR) with urban planning measures as well as increasing the green areas.
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Zhao, Dengyue, Mingzhu Xiao, Chunbo Huang, Yuan Liang, and Zitao Yang. "Land Use Scenario Simulation and Ecosystem Service Management for Different Regional Development Models of the Beibu Gulf Area, China." Remote Sensing 13, no. 16 (August 10, 2021): 3161. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13163161.
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Land use change is an important way for human activities to affect ecosystems. Based on the land use demands and policies, the simulation of future land use changes under different scenarios can test the rationality of socio-economic and policy-oriented land use changes. In this study, we set three scenarios of regular growth, ecological protection, and ecotourism development in 2030 for the Beibu Gulf area, China. We simulated the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the future landscape pattern using the Scenario Generator Rule Based Module of InVEST. Meanwhile, the ecosystem service value (ESV) was estimated by the improved unit area value equivalent method to reveal the trend of ESVs under different regional development models. The results indicated that the land use changes in the Beibu Gulf during 1999–2014 showed significant spatial heterogeneity. The farmland was mainly distributed in Beihai, the forestland was located in Fangchenggang, while the orchard was concentrated on Qinzhou. Due to economic construction and urban expansion, construction land and aquaculture land were gradually growing, while farmland and mud flat continued to decrease. Between 2014 and 2030, the total ESV decreased in the regular growth scenario and gradually increased in the ecological protection scenario and ecotourism development scenario. In addition, by comparing the three scenarios, the ecotourism development scenario is a more reasonable model for Guangxi Beibu Gulf area, which realized the trade-off between tourism development and resource conservation. Therefore, regional planners should not only consider maximizing ESVs when planning for ecosystem services, but also strive to maintain a reasonable structure of ecosystem services. Some suggestions were provided in this paper at the macro level and the local development model level respectively, which offered some references for the rational allocation of land resources, ecological environmental protection and ecotourism development in the coastal area of Beibu Gulf.
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Xu, Xia, Honglei Jiang, Lingfei Wang, Mengxi Guan, Tong Zhang, and Shirong Qiao. "Major Consequences of Land-Use Changes for Ecosystems in the Future in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone of Northern China." Applied Sciences 10, no. 19 (September 25, 2020): 6714. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10196714.
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Assessing the effects of future land use and land cover change (LULC) on ecological processes and functions is crucial for improving regional sustainability in arid and semiarid areas. Taking the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone of Northern China (APTZNC) as an example, four IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios scenarios (Scenario of economic emphasis on a regional scale (A1B), Scenario of economic emphasis on a global scale (A2), Scenario of environmental protection on a regional scale (B1), Scenario of environmental protection on a global scale (B2)) were adopted in the study to analyze the influence of the future land use and land cover change on the net primary production (NPP), soil organic matter (SOM), soil total nitrogen (TN), and soil erosion (ERO) using the model of Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator-Land use/land cover model (TES-LUC) linking ecological processes and land-use change dynamics. The results were analyzed from the perspectives of LULC components, LULC conversions, and landscape patterns under the four scenarios. The main results include the following: (1) Environmentally oriented scenarios (A1B and B1) experienced the conservation of forest and grassland; economically oriented scenarios (A2 and B2) were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. (2) The NPP and soil nutrients are the highest while the ERO is the lowest in the woodland; the trend in cultivated land is opposite to that in woodland; the grassland ecosystem function is relatively stable and could make an important contribution to effectively mitigate global climate change. (3) The general trend in NPP, SOM, and TN under the four scenarios is B1 > A1B > baseline (2010) > B2 > A2, and that in ERO is A2 > B2 > baseline (2010) > A1B > B1. (4) Trade-offs between ecosystem functions and the ecological effects of LULC can be evaluated and formulated into decision-making.
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Chawla, I., and P. P. Mujumdar. "Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 2 (February 20, 2015): 2201–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-2201-2015.
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Abstract. Streamflow regime is sensitive to changes in land use and climate in a river basin. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in the river basin. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modelling based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modelled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban area and moderately sensitive to change in crop land area. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. Combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.
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Dewata, Indang. "Dynamic Model of Land Use Change in Landslide Hazard Zones in Tanah Datar District, West Sumatra." Sumatra Journal of Disaster, Geography and Geography Education 3, no. 1 (June 1, 2019): 67–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/sjdgge.v3i1.194.
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Population growth has an impact on land resource needs, pressure on land use will have an impact on environmental degradation. As an effort to reduce pressure, policy efforts in land use are needed. This study aims to develop dynamic models in land use and develop land use policy direction.The method used in dynamic modeling uses system analysis and land change policy direction using ISM analysis. In dynamic modeling, land use change uses three scenarios, namely: optimistic scenario, muder scenario, and pessimistic scenario. In determining the direction of the policy involving all stakeholders as many as 15 experts. The results of dynamic model analysis show that forest area changes from time to time of 1.6 percent per year. Changes in forest areas will have an impact on increasing environmental disasters. As an effort to save the environment, there is a need for law enforcement and strict sanctions against perpetrators of forest area destruction
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Ding, Qinglong, Yang Chen, Lingtong Bu, and Yanmei Ye. "Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVEST Model." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 5 (March 1, 2021): 2389. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052389.
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The past decades were witnessing unprecedented habitat degradation across the globe. It thus is of great significance to investigate the impacts of land use change on habitat quality in the context of rapid urbanization, particularly in developing countries. However, rare studies were conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of habitat quality under multiple future land use scenarios. In this paper, we established a framework by coupling the future land use simulation (FLUS) model with the Intergrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. We then analyzed the habitat quality change in Dongying City in 2030 under four scenarios: business as usual (BAU), fast cultivated land expansion scenario (FCLE), ecological security scenario (ES) and sustainable development scenario (SD). We found that the land use change in Dongying City, driven by urbanization and agricultural reclamation, was mainly characterized by the transfer of cultivated land, construction land and unused land; the area of unused land was significantly reduced. While the habitat quality in Dongying City showed a degradative trend from 2009 to 2017, it will be improved from 2017 to 2030 under four scenarios. The high-quality habitat will be mainly distributed in the Yellow River Estuary and coastal areas, and the areas with low-quality habitat will be concentrated in the central and southern regions. Multi-scenario analysis shows that the SD will have the highest habitat quality, while the BAU scenario will have the lowest. It is interesting that the ES scenario fails to have the highest capacity to protect habitat quality, which may be related to the excessive saline alkali land. Appropriate reclamation of the unused land is conducive to cultivated land protection and food security, but also improving the habitat quality and giving play to the versatility and multidimensional value of the agricultural landscape. This shows that the SD of comprehensive coordination of urban development, agricultural development and ecological protection is an effective way to maintain the habitat quality and biodiversity.
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Hemmat Jou, Mohammad Hossein, Davood Namdar Khojasteh, and Ali Asghar Besalatpour. "Land use planning based on soil and water assessment tool model in a mountainous watershed to reduce runoff and sediment load." Canadian Journal of Soil Science 99, no. 3 (September 1, 2019): 305–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjss-2018-0109.
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Soil erosion is a major environmental threat to the sustainability and productive capacity of soils. This study aimed to identify optimal land use types for Zayandehrood watershed in central Iran for the first time which is large and mountainous to minimize runoff production and soil loss. Two different types of land use data for two scenarios were developed using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in combination with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Program (SUFI-2) at the subbasin level with uncertainty analysis to explicitly quantify hydrological components on a daily time step. In the first scenario, the current land use map of the study area was used, and the second scenario was constructed using an optimal land use map obtained from a land evaluation study. Promotion of the land uses in the second scenario resulted in a noticeable reduction in discharge and sediment productions in the watershed. The simulated mean discharge values by the scenarios 1 and 2 were approximately 14 658 and 13 290 m3 yr−1, respectively. The mean annual sediment yield simulated by the scenario 1 (approximately 122 220 t yr−1) decreased to that of the scenario 2 (94 440 t yr−1). This study provides a strong basis for reducing runoff and sediment yields in central Iran; however, its general analytical framework could be applied to other parts of the world that are facing similar challenges.
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Feng, Mao, and Zhenyao Shen. "Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model." Water 13, no. 6 (March 23, 2021): 874. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13060874.
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The Miyun Reservoir is an important source of surface drinking water in Beijing. Due to climate change and human activities, the inflow of Miyun Reservoir watershed (MRW) has been continuously reduced in the past 30 years, which has seriously affected the safety of Beijing’s water supply. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the mitigation measures based on the quantification of the integrated impacts of climate and land use change in MRW. The non-point source (NPS) model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT) was used for the development of future climate scenarios which were derived from two regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Three land use scenarios were generated by the land use model (conversion of land-use and its effects (CLUE-S)): (1) historical trend scenario, (2) ecological protection without consideration of spatial configuration scenario and (3) ecological protection scenario. Moreover, the reduction of sediment and nutrients under three future land use patterns in future climate scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that an appropriate land use change project led to the desired reduction effect on sediment and nutrients output under future climate scenarios. The average reduction rates of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were 11.4%, 6.3% and 7.4%, respectively. The ecological protection scenario considering spatial configuration showed the best reduction effect on sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Therefore, the addition of region-specific preference variables as part of land use change provides better pollutant control effects. Overall, this research provides technical support to protect the safety of Beijing’s drinking water and future management of non-point source pollution in MRW.
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Dong, Na, Lan You, Wenjia Cai, Gang Li, and Hui Lin. "Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework." Global Environmental Change 50 (May 2018): 164–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.04.001.
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Smith, S. J., and A. Rothwell. "Carbon density and anthropogenic land use influences on net land-use change emissions." Biogeosciences Discussions 10, no. 3 (March 5, 2013): 4157–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-4157-2013.
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Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 Gt C over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for pre-industrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.
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Jacinto, R., M. J. Cruz, and F. D. Santos. "Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change." Drinking Water Engineering and Science 6, no. 1 (June 21, 2013): 61–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/dwes-6-61-2013.
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Abstract. The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2) adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1) characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2) identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3) identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4) production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes). The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16%) in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%). All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.
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Chawla, I., and P. P. Mujumdar. "Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 8 (August 24, 2015): 3633–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3633-2015.
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Abstract. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.
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Santos, Regina Maria Bessa, Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes, Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes, and Fernando António Leal Pacheco. "Hydrologic Impacts of Land Use Changes in the Sabor River Basin: A Historical View and Future Perspectives." Water 11, no. 7 (July 15, 2019): 1464. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11071464.
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The study area used for this study was the Sabor river basin (located in the Northeast of Portugal), which is composed mostly for agroforestry. The objectives were to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological services that occurred due to land use changes between 1990 and 2008 and to consider two scenarios for the year 2045. The scenarios were, firstly, afforestation projection, proposed by the Regional Plan for Forest Management, and secondly, wildfires that will affect 32% of the basin area. In this work, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate the provision of hydrological services, namely water quantity, being calibrated for daily discharge. The calibration and validation showed a good agreement for discharge with coefficients of determination of 0.63 and 0.8 respectively. The land use changes and the afforestation scenario showed decreases in water yield, surface flow, and groundwater flow and increases in evapotranspiration and lateral flow. The wildfire scenario, contrary to the afforestation scenario, showed an increase in surface flow and a decrease in lateral flow. The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in 2000 and 2006 showed average decreases in the water yield of 91 and 52 mm·year−1, respectively. The decrease in water yield was greater in the afforestation scenario than in the wildfires scenario mainly in winter months. In the afforestation scenario, the large decrease varied between 28 hm3·year−1 in October and 62 hm3·year−1 in January, while in the wildfires scenario, the decrease was somewhat smaller, varying between 15 hm3·year−1 in October and 49 hm3·year−1 in January.
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Wellik, Tyler, and Kara Kockelman. "Anticipating land-use impacts of self-driving vehicles in the Austin, Texas, region." Journal of Transport and Land Use 13, no. 1 (August 6, 2020): 185–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2020.1717.
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This paper used an implementation of the land-use model SILO in Austin, Texas, over a 27-year period with an aim to understand the impacts of the full adoption of self-driving vehicles on the region’s residential land use. SILO was integrated with MATSim for the Austin region. Land-use and travel results were generated for a business-as-usual case (BAU) of 0% self-driving or “autonomous” vehicles (AVs) over the model timeframe versus a scenario in which households’ value of travel time savings (VTTS) was reduced by 50% to reflect the travel-burden reductions of no longer having to drive. A third scenario was also compared and examined against BAU to understand the impacts of rising vehicle occupancy (VO) and/or higher roadway capacities due to dynamic ride-sharing (DRS) options in shared AV (SAV) fleets. Results suggested an 8.1% increase in average work-trip times when VTTS fell by 50% and VO remained unaffected (the 100% AV scenario) and a 33.3% increase in the number of households with “extreme work-trips” (over 1 hour, each way) in the final model year (versus BAU of 0% AVs). When VO was raised to 2.0 and VTTS fell instead by 25% (the “Hi-DRS” SAV scenario), average work-trip times increased by 3.5% and the number of households with “extreme work-trips” increased by 16.4% in the final model year (versus BAU of 0% AVs). The model also predicted 5.3% fewer households and 19.1% more available, developable land in the city of Austin in the 100% AV scenario in the final model year relative to the BAU scenario’s final year, with 5.6% more households and 10.2% less developable land outside the city. In addition, the model results predicted 5.6% fewer households and 62.9% more available developable land in the city of Austin in the Hi-DRS SAV scenario in the final model year relative to the BAU scenario’s final year, with 6.2% more households and 9.9% less developable land outside the city.
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Ustaoglu, Eda, Brendan Williams, and Laura Petrov. "Scenario Analysis of Alternative Land Development Patterns for the Leipzig-Halle Region: Implications for Transport-Land-Use Sustainability." Urban Planning 2, no. 1 (April 5, 2017): 108–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.17645/up.v2i1.838.
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The objective of this paper is to present alternative land development scenarios for the sustainability impact assessment of transport-land-use relationship in the Leipzig-Halle Region. Using the MOLAND Model that was applied to a declining urban region for the first time, two different land-use scenarios were developed representing a baseline <em>dispersed</em> development and an alternative <em>compact</em> development case. The assessment of land-use-transport relationships is carried out incorporating the use of social, economic and environmental indicators. The impacts and indicators were specified and evaluated subject to a quantitative and qualitative assessment. The findings imply that a compact development scenario is preferable over dispersed development scenario in terms of potential quantitative data on the benefits to the environment and society. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline case indicates the costs of such development exceed the benefits. The results of this type of scenario analysis provide an objective evidence basis in policy evaluation and decisions regarding future urban developments. This research was developed from several scenarios created with the key stakeholders of the Leipzig-Halle Region from research originally conducted as part of the PLUREL Project in 2012 and updated in 2016. It aims at contributing to literature by providing a sustainability assessment framework for rapid rail infrastructure provision that incorporates socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of alternative future urban form scenarios into the analysis. In addition, due to MOLAND features, it provides the opportunity for the sustainability impact assessment of different forms of urban development linked with transport infrastructure provision in the Region and compare the findings with other case study areas in Europe and internationally.
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Ji, Zhengxin, Hejie Wei, Dong Xue, Mengxue Liu, Enxiang Cai, Weiqiang Chen, Xinwei Feng, Jiwei Li, Jie Lu, and Yulong Guo. "Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 7 (March 29, 2021): 3552. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18073552.
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Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.
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Yu, Xujing, Liping Shan, and Yuzhe Wu. "Land Use Optimization in a Resource-Exhausted City Based on Simulation of the F-E-W Nexus." Land 10, no. 10 (September 27, 2021): 1013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land10101013.
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Limited land resources are used to meet the growing economic, social, and ecological needs of people in China. Food, energy, and water (F-E-W) are the basic resources for supporting human survival and the transformation of different land uses. This paper tries to construct a theoretical framework of land use and the F-E-W nexus and uses system dynamics to simulate the optimal allocation of land use in Shizuishan City, China, by comparing different scenarios that have different parameters related to F-E-W. The final results follow: (1) according to the relationship between land use and the F-E-W nexus, a three-layer nested theoretical framework is constructed. (2) Future land use under different scenarios differs. Under the scenarios of a less dependence on coal energy, a higher utilization efficiency of energy and agricultural water resources, and a lower grain self-sufficiency rate, there are less crop and urban lands but more ecological land. However, generally speaking, crop and rural construction lands tend to decrease, while urban and ecological lands tend to increase. (3) Combined with different objectives, the rapid transformation scenario is considered a better option in which to achieve a balance among the economy, society, and ecology. This paper also discusses the application of land use optimization in the delineation of three control lines in territory-space planning in China.
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Proswitz, Katharina, Mamkwe Claudia Edward, Mariele Evers, Felister Mombo, Alexander Mpwaga, Kristian Näschen, Jennifer Sesabo, and Britta Höllermann. "Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania." Sustainability 13, no. 12 (June 8, 2021): 6552. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13126552.
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The Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland. In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for advisable further research and management interventions.
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Burian, Jaroslav, Stanislav Šťastný, Jan Brus, Vilém Pechanec, and Vít Voženílek. "Urban Planner: model for optimal land use scenario modelling." Geografie 120, no. 3 (2015): 330–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.37040/geografie2015120030330.
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This paper describes a new approach to automatic optimal land use scenario modelling using the developed ArcGIS “Urban Planner” extension. The first part of the paper addresses the implementation of geoinformatic technologies in spatial planning. The study presents several models and approaches, which focus mainly on the evaluation of land suitability, spatial modelling, and the possibilities of their use in urban planning. The main part of the paper describes the theoretical basis of the model, which is built on a weighted raster overlay. This study also elaborately analyses the functionality of the extension, which lies in the assessment of land suitability and the detection of optimal areas suitable for urban development. The paper also offers some testing of the model, specifically its robustness and sensitivity in the Olomouc region and its possible use for the creation of development scenarios.
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Yin, Le, Erfu Dai, Guopan Xie, and Baolei Zhang. "Effects of Land-Use Intensity and Land Management Policies on Evolution of Regional Land System: A Case Study in the Hengduan Mountain Region." Land 10, no. 5 (May 15, 2021): 528. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land10050528.
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In the last few decades, land use/land cover (LULC) has changed significantly under the influence of local planning and policy implementation, and this has had a profound impact on the regional ecological environment. By taking the Hengduan Mountain region as the study area, this study considered the demands of various commodities and services and applied the CLUMondo model to predict the trajectory of change in the land system for the years 2010–2030. The results indicate that the forest system expands significantly in this time, while the grassland and cropland systems are projected to develop intensively under the three scenarios. The high demand for livestock products is the main cause of the intensification of the grassland system under the TREND scenario, the demand for forests leads to the expansion of the forest land system under the FOREST scenario, and the significant intensification of the cropland system under the CONSERVATION scenario is closely related to an increase in the area of ecological land. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the optimal management of land systems in other mountainous areas.