Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Land Use Scenario'

This thesis presents an analysis of how one UK Regional Development Agency (RDA) used scenario planning in its construction of the region’s Regional Economic Strategy (RES). Strategists are broadly defined to include those within the RDA charged with developing and enacting a consultative strategy making process, the consultants engaged to provide advice and expertise to ensure workshops were conducted effectively, and, individuals representing stakeholder organizations that attended these workshops and responded to written consultations. Four scenarios depicting the region in the year 2020 were produced, which were subsequently presented as an evidence-base for the strategy process. A draft RES was created and issued for consultation. Previous RES development processes had been criticized for their lack of consultation, in this iteration strategists skilfully utilized a recognized strategy making practice as a means of responding to this. The scenario planning approach they adopted bore little resemblance to to the sanitised and context-free recipes commonly presented in the strategy textbooks. The research is a reflective, longitudinal study with data drawn from forty-six semi-structured interviews producing an authentic rich description that illustrates how actors enacted a strategizing process in the complex environment of the UK public sector. The analysis highlights how the strategists were influenced by sometimes conflicting desires and aspirations, and that to reconcile these and ensure deadlines were met inductive, interpretive and subjective acts were required. This analysis presents strategists as bricoleurs, with the documents and draft strategies produced being socially situated co-constructions emerging from negotiated, temporally-bound, power-laden and politically-infused interactions.

With increasing pressure to better manage the environment many government and private organisations are studying the relationships between social, economic and environmental factors to determine how they can best be optimised for increased sustainability. The analysis of such relationships are undertaken using computer-based Integrated Catchment Models (ICM). These models are capable of generating multiple scenarios depicting alternative land use alternatives at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, which present (potentially) better Triple-Bottom Line (TBL) outcomes than the prevailing situation. Dissemination of this data is (for the most part) reliant on traditional, static map products however, the ability of such products to display the complexity and temporal aspects is limited and ultimately undervalues both the knowledge incorporated in the models and the capacity of stakeholders to disseminate the complexities through other means. Geovisualization provides tools and methods for disseminating large volumes of spatial (and associated non-spatial) data. Virtual Environments (VE) have been utilised for various aspects of landscape planning for more than a decade. While such systems are capable of visualizing large volumes of data at ever-increasing levels of realism, they restrict the users ability to accurately perceive the (virtual) space. Augmented Reality (AR) is a visualization technique which allows users freedom to explore a physical space and have that space augmented with additional, spatially referenced information. A review of existing mobile AR systems forms the basis of this research. A theoretical mobile outdoor AR system using Common-Of-The-Shelf (COTS) hardware and open-source software is developed. The specific requirements for visualizing land use scenarios in a mobile AR system were derived using a usability engineering approach known as Scenario-Based Design (SBD). This determined the elements required in the user interfaces resulting in the development of a low-fidelity, computer-based prototype. The prototype user interfaces were evaluated using participants from two targeted stakeholder groups undertaking hypothetical use scenarios. Feedback from participants was collected using the cognitive walk-through technique and supplemented by evaluator observations of participants physical actions. Results from this research suggest that the prototype user interfaces did provide the necessary functionality for interacting with land use scenarios. While there were some concerns about the potential implementation of

Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of reducing precipitations and rising temperatures in the arid and semi-arid of the Middle-East region (such as Iran) aggravate this condition during the last few decades. A proper water planning needs productive Integrated Water Resource Management models that can respond these complicated troubles. The aim of this study was to develop a structure for applicable and efficient risk control of water supplies through drought. This management structure combines hydrological, socio-economic and water organization models. The methodology has three factors: 1) the statistical possessions of drought characterisation and drought trend in terms of space-time were examined and thresholds of drought warning are evaluated to assist as drivers for control programmes. 2) A water-planning model was applied to combine water accessibility and demand and examine the reliability of the water system to deliver the water to demand sites during the normal and drought episodes. 3) The model was used to estimates the future impacts of climate alteration, through driving them with simulations from an ensemble of statically downscaled CMIP5 model for the severest scenario in the 21st century. Moreover, some potential management plans that decrease the future hazard of water shortage were evaluated. The methods were tested in a case study in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Iran. The results indicated the important roles of both meteorological and anthropogenic elements on occurrence of drought and water shortages for past and future time.

In this thesis empirical relationships and modeling tools are used to describe the relationship between human activities and meso- and large scale riverine N fluxes from land to sea. On a large scale Paper I showed that by only having knowledge about human population size and runoff one can estimate the riverine export of DIN (r2= 0.76). In Paper II we included two other important anthropogenic N inputs, i.e. atmospheric deposition and primary emission (PE) from animals. In most of the catchments the PE from animals were larger than the PE from humans. Hence, development of livestock is important and increased animal protein consumption by humans might increase the riverine N export. Scenario analysis (Paper II) show that climate change is expected to both decrease and increase the riverine N export depending on which part of the catchment is modeled. In the southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea catchment there is large potential for N reductions from point sources (Papers III & V). The diffuse sources are more difficult to decrease and a reduction of mineral fertilizer does not always lead to reduced N loadings because the agricultural systems can buffer even a slight surplus (Paper III). There is inertia in the catchments which can be seen in for example in the northern part of the catchment. Here atmospheric N deposition is almost as high as in the southern part but the nitrogen flux from these rivers is not elevated. These northern river catchments have N exports of the same magnitude as the natural background (Paper IV), indicating that the atmospheric N deposition is retained in the system and probably taken up by N limited boreal forests. However, important reductions can be achieved in the agricultural sector by detailed management of the planted land and animal manure. The highest sensitivity is in catchments with high animal density and high specific discharge, primarily draining to Kattegat and Danish Straits (Paper II & IV).
At the time of doctoral dissertation the following publications were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript

Der Landschaftswasserhaushalt stellt die Integrationsebene der Geokomponenten Klima, Boden und Landnutzung dar und unterliegt aktuell einer intensiven Forschungstätigkeit. Die charakteristische Ausprägung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes ist in der mitteleuropäischen Kulturlandschaft das Ergebnis einer von vielfältigen Triebkräften bestimmten komplexen Nutzung. Diese existierenden Nutzungsansprüche werden aber nicht gezielt zur Optimierung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes koordiniert, da die handelnden Akteure teils völlig gegensätzlichen Zielrichtungen verfolgen. Insgesamt gesehen bietet die Optimierung der nicht besiedelten Landfläche auf Grund ihrer großen Flächeninanspruchnahme die größten Potentiale der Beeinflussung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mit der hydrologischen Modellierung und der funktionalen Landschaftsbewertung zwei völlig unterschiedliche methodische Ansätze zur Analyse hydrologischer Prozesse im Landschaftswasserhaushalt genutzt, um die Reaktion des Wasserhaushaltes auf Landschaftsveränderungen zu untersuchen. Es wird am Beispiel eines Flusseinzugsgebietes im Erzgebirge gezeigt, inwieweit sich durch ein Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modell Änderungen im Wasserhaushalt von Landnutzungsszenarien aufzeigen lassen, die auf der Grundlage von Landschaftsbewertungsverfahren erstellt wurden. Es sollen also mittels hydrologischer Modellierung die qualitativen Resultate eines deutlich einfacher zu realisierenden Planungsverfahrens quantifiziert werden. Auf der Basis der bewerteten Landschaftsfunktionen Abflussregulationsfunktion, Wassererosionswiderstand, Ertragspotential und physikochemisches Filtervermögen des Bodens wurden durch multikriterielle Optimierung mit der Software LNOPT zwei sich unterscheidende Szenarien, ein eher realistisch angelegtes Szenario (Realszenario) und ein Szenario mit möglichst hoher Retentionswirkung (Szenario Abflussminimierung) entwickelt. Beide Szenarien sind an die Realität angelehnt und nicht fiktiv, wodurch sich starke Einschränkungen hinsichtlich der optimierbaren Fläche ergeben. So stehen nur 36,5 % der Gesamtfläche zur Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Verfügung wovon nur 12,5 % der Fläche durch den Optimierungsprozess in ihrer Nutzung umgewidmet wird. Der Wasserhaushalt der entwickelten Landnutzungsszenarien wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltssimulationsmodell WaSiM-ETH in zehn ausgewählten Teileinzugsgebieten modelliert. Die Gebietsanpassung erfolgte dabei an den Pegeln Lauenstein und Geising mit einem multi-response Ansatz, der auch Ergebnisse einer Ganglinienseparation und Vergleiche zu einer Arbeit im benachbarten Weißeritzeinzugsgebiet berücksichtigt. Im Ergebnis zeigte die Validierung eine gelungene Gebietsanpassung des Modells WaSiM-ETH mit geringen Schwächen im Winter und bei außergewöhnlichen Extremereignissen. Insgesamt zeigt sich in allen modellierten Teileinzugsgebieten ein Rückgang des Gesamtabflusses, allerdings in Größenordnungen, die sich räumlich sehr stark unterscheiden. Berechnet wurde dabei nur der Wasserhaushalt für das Szenario „Abflussminimierung“, da sich beide Szenarien in den hydrologisch ähnlichen Teileinzugsgebieten nur wenig unterscheiden. Die statistische Auswertung der Ergebnisse erfolgte mit Spearmans Rangkorrelations¬koeffizient und zeigte: • dass mit steigender Höhenlage die Möglichkeiten der Abflussminimierung durch Landnutzungsveränderungen abnehmen. Im Indikator Höhenlage spiegeln sich dabei mehrere Parameter wider, welche die sich mit der Höhe wandelnden Klima-, Boden- und Reliefbedingungen ausdrücken. • dass mögliche Abflussminderungen mit dem Ackeranteil eines Einzugsgebietes positiv signifikant korreliert sind. Die Abflussminderungspotentiale steigen also mit steigendem Ackeranteil an. • dass die absolute Niederschlagsmenge keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Abflussminderung hat, vielmehr ist die jährliche Niederschlagsverteilung bedeutsam für die Möglichkeiten des Wasserrückhaltes in der Fläche. Als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Anwendung von LNOPT im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen sind die Berücksichtigung beziehungsweise Bearbeitung folgender Punkte: • Ermittlung der hydrologischen Senkenpotentiale zu Beginn des Planungsprozesses um sich auf Gebiete mit hohem hydrologischen Senkenpotential zu konzentrieren, • Planung von Landnutzungsveränderungen hinsichtlich Nutzungstyp, Nutzungsart oder Nutzungsintensität anhand von Bewertungsverfahren, welche die hydrologischen Differenzen gut widerspiegeln, • Einbeziehung der handelnden Akteure in den Planungsprozess um die möglichst vollständige Umsetzung der geplanten Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass im Mittelgebirgsraum Abflussminderungspotentiale im Zuge von Landnutzungsveränderungen vorhanden sind, diese aber regional sehr stark differenziert ausgeprägt sind. Methodisch konnte demonstriert werden, dass das eingesetzte Verfahren der multikriteriellen Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Planungsunterstützung im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen genutzt werden kann, wenn die genannten Rahmenbedingungen beachtet werden
The hydrological balance of a landscape integrates different geocomponents such as climate, soil and land use and is an object of intensive research activities. The specific characteristic of the hydrological balance of a landscape shows the result of a complex utilisation system which is caused by manifold driving forces. Due to different strategic objectives of thestakeholders, their demands are contrasting and therefore it is very difficult to coordinate these demands with respect to influencing the hydrological balance of a landscape. Changes of land use in non-settled areas have the highest potential of modifying the hydrological balance of a landscape due to the large extent of affected area. In this thesis two different methodical approaches are used to analyse the hydrological processes in the water balance of a landscape in order to investigate the effects of land use changes on the hydrological balance of a landscape. The applied methods are hydrological modelling and functional landscape assessment. Hydrological modelling quantifies the water balance of scenarios made by a much easier to realise planning method on the basis of a functional landscape assessment. Land use scenarios on the basis of a functional landscape assessment can be build through a multi-criteria optimisation process using the software LNOPT (“land use op-timisation”). By using this method, the hydrological balance of a landscape and the specific local conditions are described by the following landscape functions: runoff regulation, resistance against water erosion, biotic yield potential and physical-chemical cleaning potential of soils. On the basis of the assessment of these landscape functions, two land use scenarios were developed using the method of multi-criteria optimisation, namely, a more realistic scenario and one with the highest possible water retention potential. Even though both scenarios are different in their closeness to reality, they are both inspired by reality and not just fictitious. Due to different restrictions only 36.5 % of the entire catchment area could be used in the optimisation process. In the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential only 12.5 % of the land use was changed and in the more realistic scenario the changes were slightly smaller. The water balance simulation model WaSiM-ETH is well suited to quantify changes in the hydrological balance in the context of land-use changes at the meso-scale. The adaptations to the catchment area characteristics were done by the calibration on the gauges Lauenstein and Geising in a multi response approach considering results of a hydrograph curve separation and the results of a research in the neighbouring Weisseritz catchment. The validation shows a successful adaptation to the regional catchment area characteristics with minor shortcomings in winter and by extraordinary high precipitation events. In the whole investigated area possible changes of the hydrological balance are rather negligible due to only small land use changes. But in 10 selected subcatchments the hydrological modelling shows a decrease of discharge in the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential. The dimensions of the decrease in the discharge are regionally very different due to varying spatial characteristics. These differences get systemised through a statistical analysis using the Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient. The following correlations were found: • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge through land use modification are getting smaller with an increase in altitude. The complex indicator “altitude” contains different parameters which reflect the shifting of climatic, soil and relief conditions with changing altitude. • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge are getting higher with the percentage of arable land in the subcatchments. • The amount of precipitation has no direct influence of the possible decrease in discharge in the subcatchments. The influence of the annual variation of precipitation is larger than the absolute annual amount of precipitation. For a successful application of LNOPT for the development of land use scenarios with a hydrologic context the following requirements have to be considered: • ahead of the planning process, pedological and geological potentials of the investigated area in terms of a decrease in discharge should be investigated • landscape functions which show hydrological differences in terms of land use types, the kind and the intensity of land use should be used • local steak holders should be integrated in the planning process to ensure the complete implementation of the planned measures as much as possible. In this thesis it could be shown that mountainous regions have a potential for a decrease in discharge caused by a land use change, but with substantial regional variations. The evaluation of the used methods demonstrated that the multi-criteria optimisation software LNOPT is well suited to support hydrological related planning processes if conditions mentioned above are considered

Der Landschaftswasserhaushalt stellt die Integrationsebene der Geokomponenten Klima, Boden und Landnutzung dar und unterliegt aktuell einer intensiven Forschungstätigkeit. Die charakteristische Ausprägung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes ist in der mitteleuropäischen Kulturlandschaft das Ergebnis einer von vielfältigen Triebkräften bestimmten komplexen Nutzung. Diese existierenden Nutzungsansprüche werden aber nicht gezielt zur Optimierung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes koordiniert, da die handelnden Akteure teils völlig gegensätzlichen Zielrichtungen verfolgen. Insgesamt gesehen bietet die Optimierung der nicht besiedelten Landfläche auf Grund ihrer großen Flächeninanspruchnahme die größten Potentiale der Beeinflussung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mit der hydrologischen Modellierung und der funktionalen Landschaftsbewertung zwei völlig unterschiedliche methodische Ansätze zur Analyse hydrologischer Prozesse im Landschaftswasserhaushalt genutzt, um die Reaktion des Wasserhaushaltes auf Landschaftsveränderungen zu untersuchen. Es wird am Beispiel eines Flusseinzugsgebietes im Erzgebirge gezeigt, inwieweit sich durch ein Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modell Änderungen im Wasserhaushalt von Landnutzungsszenarien aufzeigen lassen, die auf der Grundlage von Landschaftsbewertungsverfahren erstellt wurden. Es sollen also mittels hydrologischer Modellierung die qualitativen Resultate eines deutlich einfacher zu realisierenden Planungsverfahrens quantifiziert werden. Auf der Basis der bewerteten Landschaftsfunktionen Abflussregulationsfunktion, Wassererosionswiderstand, Ertragspotential und physikochemisches Filtervermögen des Bodens wurden durch multikriterielle Optimierung mit der Software LNOPT zwei sich unterscheidende Szenarien, ein eher realistisch angelegtes Szenario (Realszenario) und ein Szenario mit möglichst hoher Retentionswirkung (Szenario Abflussminimierung) entwickelt. Beide Szenarien sind an die Realität angelehnt und nicht fiktiv, wodurch sich starke Einschränkungen hinsichtlich der optimierbaren Fläche ergeben. So stehen nur 36,5 % der Gesamtfläche zur Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Verfügung wovon nur 12,5 % der Fläche durch den Optimierungsprozess in ihrer Nutzung umgewidmet wird. Der Wasserhaushalt der entwickelten Landnutzungsszenarien wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltssimulationsmodell WaSiM-ETH in zehn ausgewählten Teileinzugsgebieten modelliert. Die Gebietsanpassung erfolgte dabei an den Pegeln Lauenstein und Geising mit einem multi-response Ansatz, der auch Ergebnisse einer Ganglinienseparation und Vergleiche zu einer Arbeit im benachbarten Weißeritzeinzugsgebiet berücksichtigt. Im Ergebnis zeigte die Validierung eine gelungene Gebietsanpassung des Modells WaSiM-ETH mit geringen Schwächen im Winter und bei außergewöhnlichen Extremereignissen. Insgesamt zeigt sich in allen modellierten Teileinzugsgebieten ein Rückgang des Gesamtabflusses, allerdings in Größenordnungen, die sich räumlich sehr stark unterscheiden. Berechnet wurde dabei nur der Wasserhaushalt für das Szenario „Abflussminimierung“, da sich beide Szenarien in den hydrologisch ähnlichen Teileinzugsgebieten nur wenig unterscheiden. Die statistische Auswertung der Ergebnisse erfolgte mit Spearmans Rangkorrelations¬koeffizient und zeigte: • dass mit steigender Höhenlage die Möglichkeiten der Abflussminimierung durch Landnutzungsveränderungen abnehmen. Im Indikator Höhenlage spiegeln sich dabei mehrere Parameter wider, welche die sich mit der Höhe wandelnden Klima-, Boden- und Reliefbedingungen ausdrücken. • dass mögliche Abflussminderungen mit dem Ackeranteil eines Einzugsgebietes positiv signifikant korreliert sind. Die Abflussminderungspotentiale steigen also mit steigendem Ackeranteil an. • dass die absolute Niederschlagsmenge keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Abflussminderung hat, vielmehr ist die jährliche Niederschlagsverteilung bedeutsam für die Möglichkeiten des Wasserrückhaltes in der Fläche. Als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Anwendung von LNOPT im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen sind die Berücksichtigung beziehungsweise Bearbeitung folgender Punkte: • Ermittlung der hydrologischen Senkenpotentiale zu Beginn des Planungsprozesses um sich auf Gebiete mit hohem hydrologischen Senkenpotential zu konzentrieren, • Planung von Landnutzungsveränderungen hinsichtlich Nutzungstyp, Nutzungsart oder Nutzungsintensität anhand von Bewertungsverfahren, welche die hydrologischen Differenzen gut widerspiegeln, • Einbeziehung der handelnden Akteure in den Planungsprozess um die möglichst vollständige Umsetzung der geplanten Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass im Mittelgebirgsraum Abflussminderungspotentiale im Zuge von Landnutzungsveränderungen vorhanden sind, diese aber regional sehr stark differenziert ausgeprägt sind. Methodisch konnte demonstriert werden, dass das eingesetzte Verfahren der multikriteriellen Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Planungsunterstützung im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen genutzt werden kann, wenn die genannten Rahmenbedingungen beachtet werden.
The hydrological balance of a landscape integrates different geocomponents such as climate, soil and land use and is an object of intensive research activities. The specific characteristic of the hydrological balance of a landscape shows the result of a complex utilisation system which is caused by manifold driving forces. Due to different strategic objectives of thestakeholders, their demands are contrasting and therefore it is very difficult to coordinate these demands with respect to influencing the hydrological balance of a landscape. Changes of land use in non-settled areas have the highest potential of modifying the hydrological balance of a landscape due to the large extent of affected area. In this thesis two different methodical approaches are used to analyse the hydrological processes in the water balance of a landscape in order to investigate the effects of land use changes on the hydrological balance of a landscape. The applied methods are hydrological modelling and functional landscape assessment. Hydrological modelling quantifies the water balance of scenarios made by a much easier to realise planning method on the basis of a functional landscape assessment. Land use scenarios on the basis of a functional landscape assessment can be build through a multi-criteria optimisation process using the software LNOPT (“land use op-timisation”). By using this method, the hydrological balance of a landscape and the specific local conditions are described by the following landscape functions: runoff regulation, resistance against water erosion, biotic yield potential and physical-chemical cleaning potential of soils. On the basis of the assessment of these landscape functions, two land use scenarios were developed using the method of multi-criteria optimisation, namely, a more realistic scenario and one with the highest possible water retention potential. Even though both scenarios are different in their closeness to reality, they are both inspired by reality and not just fictitious. Due to different restrictions only 36.5 % of the entire catchment area could be used in the optimisation process. In the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential only 12.5 % of the land use was changed and in the more realistic scenario the changes were slightly smaller. The water balance simulation model WaSiM-ETH is well suited to quantify changes in the hydrological balance in the context of land-use changes at the meso-scale. The adaptations to the catchment area characteristics were done by the calibration on the gauges Lauenstein and Geising in a multi response approach considering results of a hydrograph curve separation and the results of a research in the neighbouring Weisseritz catchment. The validation shows a successful adaptation to the regional catchment area characteristics with minor shortcomings in winter and by extraordinary high precipitation events. In the whole investigated area possible changes of the hydrological balance are rather negligible due to only small land use changes. But in 10 selected subcatchments the hydrological modelling shows a decrease of discharge in the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential. The dimensions of the decrease in the discharge are regionally very different due to varying spatial characteristics. These differences get systemised through a statistical analysis using the Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient. The following correlations were found: • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge through land use modification are getting smaller with an increase in altitude. The complex indicator “altitude” contains different parameters which reflect the shifting of climatic, soil and relief conditions with changing altitude. • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge are getting higher with the percentage of arable land in the subcatchments. • The amount of precipitation has no direct influence of the possible decrease in discharge in the subcatchments. The influence of the annual variation of precipitation is larger than the absolute annual amount of precipitation. For a successful application of LNOPT for the development of land use scenarios with a hydrologic context the following requirements have to be considered: • ahead of the planning process, pedological and geological potentials of the investigated area in terms of a decrease in discharge should be investigated • landscape functions which show hydrological differences in terms of land use types, the kind and the intensity of land use should be used • local steak holders should be integrated in the planning process to ensure the complete implementation of the planned measures as much as possible. In this thesis it could be shown that mountainous regions have a potential for a decrease in discharge caused by a land use change, but with substantial regional variations. The evaluation of the used methods demonstrated that the multi-criteria optimisation software LNOPT is well suited to support hydrological related planning processes if conditions mentioned above are considered.

Die Landschaften Mitteleuropas sind das Resultat einer langwierigen Geschichte menschlicher Landnutzung mit ihren unterschiedlichen, z.T. konkurrierenden Nutzungsansprüchen. Durch eine überwiegend intensive Beanspruchung haben die direkten und indirekten Auswirkungen der Landnutzung in vielen Fällen zu Umweltproblemen geführt. Die Disziplin der Landschaftsökologie hat es sich zur Aufgabe gemacht, Konzepte für eine nachhaltige Nutzung der Landschaft zu entwickeln. Eine wichtige Fragestellung stellt dabei die Abschätzung der möglichen Folgen von Landnutzungsänderungen dar. Für die Analyse der relevanten Prozesse in der Landschaft werden häufig mathematische Modelle eingesetzt, welche es erlauben die Landschaft unter aktuellen Verhältnissen oder hinsichtlich veränderter Rahmenbedingungen zu untersuchen. Die hypothetische Änderung der Landnutzung, die als Landnutzungsszenario bezeichnet wird, verkörpert eine wesentliche Modifikation der Rahmenbedingungen, weil Landnutzung maßgeblich Einfluss auf die natürlichen Prozesse der Landschaft nimmt. Während die Antriebskräfte einer solchen Änderung überwiegend von sozio-ökonomischen und politischen Entscheidungen gesteuert werden, orientiert sich die exakte Verortung der Landnutzungsänderungen an den naturräumlichen Bedingungen und folgt z.T. erkennbaren Regeln. Anhand dieser Vorgaben ist es möglich, räumlich explizite Landnutzungsszenarien zu entwickeln, die als Eingangsdaten für die Modellierung verschiedener landschaftsökologischer Fragestellungen wie z.B. für die Untersuchung des Einflusses der Landnutzung auf den Wasserhaushalt, die Erosionsgefahr oder die Habitatqualität dienen können. Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wurde das rasterbasierte deterministische Allokationsmodell luck (Land Use Change Scenario Kit) für die explizite Verortung der Landnutzungsänderungen entwickelt. Es basiert auf den in der Landschaftsökologie üblichen räumlichen Daten wie Landnutzung, Boden sowie Topographie und richtet sich bei der Szenarienableitung nach den Leitbildern der Landschaftsplanung. Das Modell fußt auf der Hypothese, dass das Landnutzungsmuster als Funktion seiner landschaftsökologischen Faktoren beschrieben werden kann. Das Veränderungspotenzial einer Landnutzungseinheit resultiert im Modell aus einer Kombination der Bewertung der relativen Eignung des Standortes für die jeweilige Landnutzung und der Berücksichtigung von Standorteigenschaften der umliegenden Nachbarn. Die Durchführung der Landnutzungsänderung im Modell ist iterativ angelegt, um den graduellen Prozess des Landschaftswandels nachvollziehen zu können. Als Fallbeispiel für die Anwendung solcher räumlich expliziten Landnutzungsszenarien dient die Fragestellung, inwieweit Landnutzungsänderungen die Hochwasserentstehung beeinflussen. Um den Einfluss auf die Hochwasserentstehung für jede der Landnutzungskategorien – bebaute, landwirtschaftlich genutzte und naturnahe Flächen – abschätzen zu können, wird im Landnutzungsmodell luck exemplarisch für jede Kategorie ein Teilmodell für die Veränderung von Landnutzung angeboten: 1) Ausdehnung der Siedlungsfläche: Dieses Teilmodell fußt auf der Annahme, dass sich Siedlungen nur in direkter Nachbarschaft bereits bestehender Bebauung und bevorzugt entlang von Entwicklungsachsen ausbreiten. Steile Hangneigungen stellen für potenzielle Standorte ein Hemmnis bei der Ausbreitung dar. 2) Stilllegung von Grenzertragsackerflächen: Gemäß der Hypothese, dass sich die Stilllegung von Ackerflächen an der potenziellen Ertragsleistung der Standorte orientiert, werden in diesem Teilmodell alle Ackerstandorte dahingehend bewertet und die Flächen mit der geringsten Leistungsfähigkeit stillgelegt. Bei homogenen Gebietseigenschaften werden die Stilllegungsflächen zufällig auf die Ackerfläche verteilt. 3) Etablierung von Schutzgebieten in Ufer- und Auenbereichen: Ausgehend von der These, dass sich entlang von Flüssen sensible Flächen befinden, deren Schutz positive Folgen für das Leistungsvermögen der Landschaft haben kann, werden in diesem Teilmodell schützenswerte Ufer- und Auenbereiche auf derzeit landwirtschaftlich genutzten Flächen ausgewiesen. Die Größe der Schutzgebietsfläche orientiert sich an der Morphologie der umgebenden Landschaft. Die drei Teilmodelle wurden hinsichtlich der implizierten Hypothesen mit vielen unterschiedlichen Ansätzen validiert. Das Resultat dieser intensiven Analyse zeigt für jedes Teilmodell eine zufriedenstellende Tauglichkeit. Die Modellierung der Landnutzungsänderungen wurden in drei mesoskaligen Flusseinzugsgebieten mit einer Fläche zwischen 100 und 500 km² durchgeführt, die sich markant in ihrer Landnutzung unterscheiden. Besonderer Wert wurde bei der Gebietsauswahl darauf gelegt, dass eines der Gebiete intensiv landwirtschaftlich genutzt wird, eines dicht besiedelt und eines vorwiegend bewaldet ist. Im Hinblick auf ihre Relevanz für die vorliegende Fragestellung wurden aus bestehenden Landnutzungstrends die Szenarien für (1) die prognostizierte Siedlungsfläche für das Jahr 2010, (2) die möglichen Konsequenzen des EU-weiten Beschlusses der Agenda 2000 und (3) die Novelle des Bundesnaturschutzgesetzes aus dem Jahr 2001 abgeleitet. Jedes Szenario wurde mit Hilfe des Modells auf die drei Untersuchungsgebiete angewendet. Dabei wurden für die Siedlungsausdehnung in allen drei Gebieten realistische Landnutzungsmuster generiert. Einschränkungen ergeben sich bei der Suche nach Grenzertragsstilllegungsflächen. Hier hat unter homogenen Gebietseigenschaften die zufällige Verteilung von Flächen für die Stilllegung zu einem unrealistischen Ergebnis geführt. Die Güte der Schutzgebietsausweisung ist maßgeblich an die aktuelle Landnutzung der Aue und die Morphologie des Geländes gebunden. Die besten Ergebnisse werden erzielt, wenn die Flächen in den Ufer- und Auenbereichen mehrheitlich unter derzeitiger Ackernutzung stehen und der Flusslauf sich in das Relief eingetieft hat. Exemplarisch werden für jeden Landnutzungstrend die hydrologischen Auswirkungen anhand eines historischen Hochwassers beschrieben, aus denen jedoch keine pauschale Aussage zum Einfluss der Landnutzung abgeleitet werden kann. Die Studie demonstriert die Bedeutung des Landnutzungsmusters für die natürlichen Prozesse in der Landschaft und unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit einer räumlich expliziten Modellierung für landschaftsökologische Fragestellungen in der Mesoskala.
Today′s landscapes in Central Europe are the result of a long history of land-use, which is characterised by many different demands. The immediate and long-term consequences of predominantly intensive land-use have led to environmental problems in many cases. Therefore it is necessary to develop strategies for the maintenance of landscape efficiency which take into account the different claims of utilisation. In this context the estimation of possible impacts of land-use changes represents an important statement of problem. For the analysis of the relevant processes within the landscape, it is common to apply mathematical models. Such models enable the investigation of the landscape under current conditions or with regard to modified boundary conditions. A hypothetic alteration of land-use, which is termed as land-use scenario, represents a substantial modification of the boundary conditions, because land-use exerts a strong influence on the natural processes of the landscape. While the driving forces are predominantly governed by socio-economical and political decisions, the exact location of land-use changes within the landscape mainly depends on the natural conditions and follows partly transparent rules. With these presumptions it is possible to develop land-use scenarios, which can serve as input data for the modelling of different questions of landscape ecology such as the influence of land-use on the water balance, the danger of erosion or the quality of habitat characteristics. In the context of this thesis the grid-based deterministic allocation model luck (Land Use Change Scenario Kit) for the allocation of land-use changes was developed. It is based upon the types of spatial data, which are commonly used in landscape ecology, such as information on land-use, soils as well as topography. The derivation of scenarios follows the approaches of landscape planning. The model is based upon the hypothesis, that land-use structure can be described as a function of its landscape ecological factors. The potential of a site to become subject to land-use changes, results from a combination of its local qualities and the site characteristics of its neighbourhood. Land-use change is realised iteratively in order to simulate the gradual process of changes in the landscape. The influence of land-use changes on flood generation serves as a case study to demonstrate the need for spatial explicit land-use scenarios. For each land-use category – built up areas, agriculturally used areas and natural/semi-natural land – the model luck offers a submodel for investigating the effect of land-use changes on flood generation: 1) Expansion of settlement area: This submodel is based upon the assumption that settlements spread only in the neighbourhood of already existing built-up areas and preferentially along infrastructural axes of development. Steep slopes inhibit the spreading on potential locations. 2) Set-aside of marginal yield sites under agricultural use: Setting-aside of arable land is based on the hypothesis that the selection of arable land to be set-aside depends on the potential yield efficiency of the locations. Within this submodel all fields under agricultural use are valued to that effect and the ones with the least productive efficiency are selected as set-aside locations. In case of homogeneous area qualities the set-aside locations are selected randomly. 3) Establishment of protected areas in waterside and ripearian areas: This submodel takes into consideration that the protection of sensitive areas along the river courses may have positive consequences for the efficiency of the landscape. Therefore this submodel establishes protection zones on waterside and ripearian sites under currently agricultural use, that might be of value for nature conservation. The size of the protection area depends on the morphology of the surrounding landscape. The three submodels were validated with respect to the implied hypotheses by the help of many different approaches. The result of this intensive analysis shows a satisfying suitability for each of the submodels. The simulation of land-use changes was carried out for three mesoscale river catchments with an area between 100 and 500 km². Special attention was paid to the fact that these areas should be markingly different in their land-use: One study area is predominantly under intensive agricultural use, one is densely populated and the third one is covered by forest in large parts of the area. With regard to their relevance to the onhand question from existing land-use trends scenarios were derived for the prognosed settlement area for the year 2010, for the possible consequences of the EU-wide agreement of Agenda 2000 and for the amending federal conservation law dating to the year 2001, which enhances the enlargement of protected areas. Each scenario was applied to the three study areas utilizing the model luck. For the expansion of the settlement areas in all three study areas realistic land-use patterns were generated. Limitations arose only in the context of the search for marginal yield fields. Here, the random distribution of areas to be set-aside under homogeneous conditions led to unrealistic results. The quality of the establishment of protected areas in waterside and ripearian areas is substantially bound to current land-use and the morphology of the area. The best results for this submodel are achieved if waterside and ripearian areas are mainly arable land and if the river has lowered its course into the morphology. The hydrological consequences are described exemplarily for each land-use trend with a historical flood event. The interpretation of the hydrographs does not allow global statements about the influence of land-use. The study demonstrates the significance of land-use pattern for the natural processes in the landscape and underlines the necessity of spatially explicit modelling for landscape ecological questions at the mesoscale.

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The Rio Canoas basin demands studies that seek the management of their hydrological resources. The hydrological modeling is promising as helper of construction process of its basin plan, because produce formal representation of reality. SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is a hydrological model able to predict runoffs by a complex group of inputs and by a significant group of calibrated parameters. In this study, SWAT was calibrated and validated in a watershed of 1973 Km² of Rio Canoas, called Alto Canoas basin. Parameters were calibrated by semiautomatic process as to daily scale as to monthly scale. The quality of the calibration and validation was evaluated by their Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) and R² coefficients. The model was applied in the estimative of permanence curves, in the estimative of basic runoffs separated by numeric filter and in scenarios of possible hydrological impacts caused due to land use changes. It took two years to model calibration (1996-1997), where the year 1995 was used as warm up period of the model, and four years to validation (1998-2001). The model was validated in daily scale with a NSE of 0,76 and R² of 0,79. In monthly scale, the model was validate with a NSE of 0,87 and R² of 0,89. The hydrological balance by the model indicates that in the studied basin has a significant contribution of the lateral and return flow in the formation of total runoff in the reaches. The model parameters differ as in daily scale as in monthly scale, it indicate that have different relevance of some hydrological processes according to variation of time scale. The model shows as satisfactory in the simulation of daily and monthly events. This study concludes that the calibrated model can be used as to analyze daily and monthly events, by climatological data. The attachment of hydrological model with the climatological shows as a promising way as tool to be applied in hydrological resources management of Alto Canoas basin
A bacia hidrográfica do Rio Canoas demanda estudos que visem à gestão de seus recursos hídricos. A modelagem hidrológica se mostra promissora como auxiliar no processo de construção de seu plano de bacia, uma vez que produz representações formais da realidade. O SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) é um modelo hidrológico capaz de simular vazões a partir de um conjunto complexo de dados de entrada e de um conjunto significativo de parâmetros calibrados. No presente estudo, o modelo SWAT foi calibrado e validado em uma sub-bacia de 1973 Km² da bacia do Rio Canoas, denominada bacia do Alto Canoas. Os parâmetros foram calibrados por processo semi-automático tanto para escala diária como mensal. A qualidade da calibração e da validação foi avaliada com base nos coeficientes de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) e R². O modelo foi aplicado na estimativa da curva de permanência, na estimativa das vazões básicas separadas por filtro numérico e em cenários de possíveis impactos hidrológicos provocados por mudanças no uso do solo. Foram utilizados dois anos para calibração do modelo (1996-1997), sendo o ano de 1995 utilizado como período de aquecimento do modelo, e quatro anos para validação (1998-2001). O modelo foi validado na escala diária com NSE de 0,76 e R² de 0,79. Na escala mensal, o modelo foi validado com um NSE de 0,87 e R² de 0,89. O balanço hídrico calculado pelo modelo indicou que na bacia estudada ocorre contribuição significativa do escoamento sub-superficial e básico na formação das vazões nos canais. Os parâmetros do modelo diferiram tanto na escala diária como na escala mensal, indicando haver relevâncias distintas de determinados processos hidrológicos conforme a variação da escala temporal. O modelo mostrou-se satisfatório tanto na simulação de eventos diários como mensais. Concluiu-se que o modelo calibrado pode ser utilizado tanto na análise de eventos diários como mensais, a partir de dados climatológicos. O acoplamento de modelo hidrológico com climatológico mostra-se um caminho promissor como ferramenta a ser aplicada na gestão dos recursos hídricos da bacia do Alto Canoas

Die Nachfrage nach Agrarerzeugnissen gilt als zentrale Ursache für den Verlust weltweit wichtiger Ökosysteme. In Brasilien hat speziell die Ausweitung der Sojaproduktion zur Abholzung tropischer Wälder und Savannen geführt. Zumeist werden neu gerodete Flächen als Rinderweiden genutzt und vormalige Weiden für den Sojaanbau umgewandelt. Diese Entwicklung führt zu der Annahme, dass die Ausweitung der Sojaproduktion indirekt für die Rodung verantwortlich ist. Staatliche Umweltpolitiken und die Selbstverpflichtung der Sojaindustrie haben seit 2004 zu einer Verringerung der Abholzung beigetragen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zielt die vorliegende Dissertation darauf ab, ein vertieftes Verständnis der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Soja- und Rinderwirtschaft zu erlangen. Im Fokus stehen räumliche und zeitliche Dynamiken von Landnutzung und Landnutzungsverdrängung in Mato Grosso und Pará, einer der dynamischsten Regionen Brasiliens. Für diese Bundesstaaten werden Landnutzung und Landnutzungsverdrängung im regionalen Kontext, auf Grundstücksebene und mithilfe von Szenarien untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Strategien zur Verringerung der Abholzung Einfluss auf die Dynamiken der Landnutzung und Landnutzungsverdrängung hatten. Die durch die Ausweitung des Sojaanbaus hervorgerufene Verdrängungsprozesse haben sich nach der Implementierung der Umweltschutzstrategien verringert. Auch die Abholzung auf einzelnen Grundstücken in Mato Grosso ging zurück. Zugleich zeigt die Analyse, dass die Selbstverpflichtung der Sojaindustrie durch indirekte Abholzung teilweise untergraben wird. Die Ergebnisse der Szenarien unterstreichen die regionale Dynamik und speziell die Risiken einer weiteren Ausweitung von Rinderweiden. Insgesamt legen die Ergebnisse nahe, dass auf Reduktion der Abholzung abzielende Strategien die Wechselwirkungen von Soja- und Rinderwirtschaft beachten müssen. Dies erfordert eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit von Rinderwirtschaft, Sojaindustrie und staatlichen Organisationen.
Demands for agricultural commodities are a major threat for some of the most valuable ecosystems in the world. The expansion of the agricultural sector in Brazil, fueled by global demands for soybeans, contributed to the loss of tropical and savanna ecosystems. However, most deforestation was caused by pastures, raising concerns about land use displacement processes between soybean expansion and cattle ranching. Promising, reductions of deforestation were observed following the implementation of governmental strategies and zero-deforestation supply chain commitments. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of soybean expansion and cattle ranching, driving deforestation in one of the most dynamic agricultural expansion and deforestation frontier of Brazil, in Mato Grosso and Pará. In this region, land use displacement describes the conversion of pasture to soybean followed by deforestation for cattle ranching at another location. This process was assessed at regional and property-level. Moreover, scenario analysis was applied to identify regional and subregional dynamics of land use changes. The results indicated that environmental governance affected regional and local land use dynamics and displacement processes. Distal displacement processes between soybean expansion and deforestation were significant, contributing to deforestation, but declined subsequently to the implementation of environmental policies. Likewise, deforestation at property-level declined following the policy implementations. However, the effectiveness of the zero-deforestation supply chain commitment was found to be at risk due to property-level displacement deforestation. Additionally, the scenario analysis emphasized the importance of subregional dynamics and identified risks of future deforestation. Integrating efforts between supply chain (soy and cattle) and governmental actors may be crucial to reduce deforestation in the Amazon.

Cerrado is the second largest Brazilian biome and originally corresponded to 24% of the national territory, and since the 1970´s has been under agriculture and cattle activities. Soybean and maize are two of the most important grain-crops found in this region, with an estimated production of approximately 223 millions of tons in the Brazilian 2016/17 harvest. Changes in soil physical properties due to soil management affect productivity. Possible changes in climatic variables may also affect agricultural productivity, either per unit area (land productivity) or per unit of water volume (water productivity). One option for studying the relation between land and water productivity and how they are affected by soil hydraulic properties and climatic factors is by using an agro-hydrological model. In this study, the aim was to quantify aspects of the soil water balance and to make estimates of land and water productivity for soybean in a clay soil and maize in a medium texture in the Cerrado region using SWAP simulations for different irrigation strategies. Effects on agricultural productivity of a climatic prevision with increasing the air temperature and rainfall reduction for the years 2016-2040 were also simulated. Results show that an increase of soil porosity, resulting from a conservation tillage management, leads to a higher infiltration capacity and is shown to increase land and water productivity, when associated to irrigation scenarios. Higher water productivities were observed with only supplementary irrigation. Predicted climate changes will lead to a decrease of approximately 20% by the end of the years 2016-2040 in land productivity, under rainfed conditions.
O Cerrado é o segundo maior bioma brasileiro que originalmente, correspondia a 24% do território nacional, e desde os anos 1970 tem sido utilizado para atividades ligadas à agricultura e pecuária. Soja e milho são duas das mais importantes culturas graníferas encontradas nesta região, com uma estimativa de produtividade de aproximadamente 223 milhoes de toneladas na safra brasileira de 2016/17. Mudanças nas propriedades físicas do solo devido ao manejo do solo afetam a produtividade agrícola. Possíveis mudanças de variáveis climáticas também poderão afetar a produtividade agrícola, tanto por unidade de área (produtividade de terra) ou por unidade de volume de água (produtividade de água). Uma opção para estudar as relações entre a produtividade de água e de terra e como elas são afetadas pelas propriedades hidraulicas do solo e pelos fatores climáticos é pela utilização de um modelo agro-hidrológico. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi quantificar os aspectos do balanço hídrico do solo e realizar estimativas da produtividade de água e de terra para soja em um solo argiloso e para milho em um solo de textura média, na região do Cerrado, utilizando simulações com o modelo SWAP para diferentes manejos de irrigação. Os efeitos na produtividade agrícola de uma previsão climática com aumento da temperatura do ar e redução da precipitação para os anos 2016-2040 foram também simulados. Os resultados mostram que um aumento na porosidade do solo, resultante de um manejo conservacionista do solo, leva a uma maior infiltração e resulta num aumento na produtividade da terra e da água, quando associado a cenários de irrigação. As maiores produtividades da água foram observadas com irrigação suplementar. As mudanças climáticas previstas levarão a uma diminuição de aproximadamente 20% na produtividade da terra ao final dos anos 2016-2040, em áreas não irrigadas.

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Water is a fundamental resource for life. The occurrence of extreme events has increased in recent decades. Understanding the effects of these events is extremely important for prevention and mitigation actions to be taken. This doctoral thesis addresses with issues related to water resources management and the impacts of land use and climate changes on the hydrological regime of the Mundaú River Basin (4,090.39 km²), northeastern Brazil. It aims to evaluate the uncertainties of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibration and validation processes and to simulate land use scenarios and future climate changes in the basin. Chapter 1 addresses the general introduction of the thesis, containing the hypothesis and general and specific objectives. Chapter 2 describes the hydro-environmental characteristics of the study area. Chapter 3 details the procedures adopted in the simulations with the SWAT model. Chapter 4 presents the evaluation of the uncertainties of the use of discharge and soil moisture data in the calibration and validation of the SWAT model in the Mundaú River Basin. Chapter 5 brings the evaluation of the effects of land use changes, based on the calibrated and validated SWAT model, on the evapotranspiration, surface runoff and sediment yield processes. Chapter 6 addresses the impacts of climate change on water resources in the basin, considering two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, and three time periods: short term, medium term and long term. Chapter 7 contains the general conclusions of the thesis. Finally, Chapter 8 presents a summary of the publications and other activities developed during the Doctoral research. We believe that the results found in this thesis are promising for the water management of the Mundaú River Basin, and will serve as a basis for the adoption of strategies to coexist with the scenarios of land use and climate predicted for the future. The SWAT model presented good performance and the calibration and simulation procedures adopted in this study can be replicated in other similar watersheds. The lessons learnt in this thesis may help researchers around the world to better understand the behavior of the hydrological processes of a northeastern Brazil basin under different land use and climate conditions.
A água é um recurso fundamental para a vida. A ocorrência de eventos extremos tem aumentado nas últimas décadas. A compreensão dos efeitos causados por esses eventos é de extrema importância para que ações de prevenção e mitigação sejam tomadas. Esta pesquisa de doutorado aborda assuntos ligados à gestão dos recursos hídricos e aos impactos das modificações do uso do solo e do clima sobre o regime hidrológico da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Mundaú (4,090.39 km²), Nordeste do Brasil. Objetiva avaliar as incertezas dos processos de calibração e validação do modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) e simular cenários de uso do solo e de mudanças climáticas futuras na bacia. O capítulo 1 aborda a introdução geral do trabalho, contendo a hipótese e os objetivos geral e específicos. O capítulo 2 descreve as características hidro-ambientais da área de estudo. O capítulo 3 detalha os procedimentos adotados nas simulações com o modelo SWAT. O capítulo 4 traz a avaliação das incertezas da utilização dos dados de vazão e umidade do solo na calibração e validação do modelo SWAT na Bacia do Rio Mundaú. O capítulo 5 aborda a avaliação dos efeitos das mudanças no uso do solo, a partir do modelo SWAT calibrado e validado, sobre os processos de evapotranspiração, escoamento superficial e produção de sedimentos. O capítulo 6 aborda os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre os recursos hídricos da bacia, considerando dois cenários de emissão de gases do efeito estufa: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 e 8.5, e três períodos de tempo: curto prazo, médio prazo e longo prazo. O capítulo 7 contém as conclusões gerais da tese. E, por fim, o capítulo 8 apresenta um resumo das publicações e outras atividades desenvolvidas durante a pesquisa de Doutorado. Acreditamos que os resultados encontrados nesta tese são promissores para a gestão hídrica da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Mundaú, e servirão como base para a adoção de estratégias de convivência com os cenários de uso do solo e clima previstos para o futuro. O modelo SWAT apresentou bom desempenho e os procedimentos de calibração e simulação de cenários adotados neste estudo podem ser replicados em outras bacias hidrográficas semelhantes. As lições aprendidas nesta tese podem auxiliar pesquisadores em todo o mundo, a uma melhor compreensão do comportamento dos processos hidrológicos de uma bacia do Nordeste brasileiro sob diferentes condições de solo e clima.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based Fire Field Modelling (FFM) codes offer powerful tools for fire safety engineers but their operation requires a high level of skill and an understanding of the mode of operation and limitations, in order to obtain meaningful results in complex scenarios. This problem is compounded by the fact that many FFM cases are barely stable and poor quality set-up can lead to solution failure. There are considerable dangers of misuse of FFM techniques if they are used without adequate knowledge of both the underlying fire science and the associated numerical modelling. CFD modelling can be difficult to set up effectively since there are a number of potential problems: it is not always clear what controls are needed for optimal solution performance, typically there will be no optimal static set of controls for the whole solution period to cover all stages of a complex simulation, there is the generic problem of requiring a high quality mesh - which cannot usually be ascertained until the mesh is actually used for the particular simulation for which it is intended and there are potential handling issues, e.g. for transitional events (and extremes of physical behaviour) which are likely to break the solution process. In order to tackle these key problems, the research described in this thesis has identified and investigated a methodology for analysing, applying and automating a CFD Expert user's knowledge to support various stages of the simulation process - including the key stages of creating a mesh and performing the simulation. This research has also indicated an approach for the control of a FFM CFD simulation which is analogous to the way that a FFM CFD Expert would approach the modelling of a previously unseen scenario. These investigations have led to the identification of a set of requirements and appropriate knowledge which have been instantiated as the, so called, Experiment Engine (EE). This prototype component (which has been built and tested within the SMARTFIRE FFM environment) is capable, both of emulating an Expert users' ability to produce a high quality and appropriate mesh for arbitrary scenarios, and is also able to automatically adjust a key control factor of the solution process.

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

Many land systems experience massive ecological pressure due to ongoing land use changes for the increasing demand for food, but also need to sustain essential ecosystem services. Computer-based model scenarios help to anticipate the consequences of different socio-economic future transition pathways for humans and nature and evaluate trade-offs between various demands on land. In many grassland ecosystems, the processes of agricultural abandonment in less attractive regions coexist with agricultural intensification in others. At the same time, the ecological value of natural grassland is rarely considered in decision making. By using the CLUMondo land use modelling framework I mapped the future composition of the land system of Orenburg province under five socio-economic scenarios with different ranges of food production intensification. The outcomes allowed me to identify hotspot areas for arable land expansion, grassland restoration, and agricultural abandonment. Most agricultural expansion is prevalent in three scenarios with high ambition for food production, and, without active policy interventions, some natural grassland areas in northern parts of the province are likely to be converted to cropland. In a scenario with low demand for food production, large areas in southern parts could be abandoned creating good opportunities for grassland restoration on former cropland, but possibly having negative socio-economic consequences, such as people’s migration to northern parts of the province. In a scenario with lesser ambition for crop production, but an increase in meat production, agricultural abandonment is less widespread and will even include some additional conversion of cropland to pasture. With appropriate policies aimed at supporting sustainable grazing practices (together with favourable global socio-economic conditions), such scenario can provide an opportunity for satisfying demands for food, providing livelihoods, and ensuring the flow of ecosystem services by grassland ecosystems.

[EN] Climate change has occurred in Indonesia, for example, increasing the surface air temperature, including in the Upper Citarum watershed. This phenomenon leads to a lack of water in the dry season, which lowers agriculture production and remains a great obstacle for agricultural activity. Meanwhile, human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed. This occurs due to the demands of the ever-increasing population growth in the region. As a result, rice field and forested areas have been sacrificed to compensate the urban increment. The general objective of this dissertation is to understand and analyze the impact of climate and LULC changes on the hydrological process and their relationship with historical and future changes by using spatially distributed modeling on the Upper Citarum tropical catchment. The distributed model TETIS has been implemented to obtain the results of past and future scenarios on the water and sediment cycles. Annual historical bathymetries in the reservoir were used to calibrate and validate the sediment sub-model involving Miller's density evolution and trap efficiency of Brune's equation. Climate change has been considered under RCP 45 and RCP 85 trajectories. Meanwhile, to overcome the LULC problem, historical and future LULCs have been studied. LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. The forecasted results of LCM model show, on one hand, a continuation in the expansion of urban areas at the expense of the contiguous rice fields. The results determined that deforestation and urbanization were the most influential factors for the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum Catchment. Thus, it decreases evapotranspiration, increases water yield by increasing all its components; overland flow, interflow and baseflow. The changes in LULC are currently producing and will produce in the future, a relatively small increment of erosion rates, increasing the area exceeds Tsl erosion. Sediment yield will increase in 2029 as the result of erosion increment. Other LULC scenarios such as conservation, government plan and natural vegetation scenarios are expected to have an increment in total evapotranspiration, the water yield is expected to decrease. Flood regime, erosion and sedimentation are reduced dramatically. Hence, it leads to a massive increment of reservoir and hydropower lifetime signed by a very long period of the lifetime. Climate change alters the magnitude of water balance and can be identified from the shift of infiltration, overland flow, interflow, baseflow and water yield. Those increments finally change the flood regime, catchment erosion. RCP 85 trajectory gives a bigger impact compared to RCP 45 trajectory on hydrological and sediment cycle. . LULC change results a bigger impact on water balance, flood regime, erosion and sedimientation. The combination of climate and LULC change give a bigger impact on the flows of water balance, erosion, flood, sedimentation and will be catastrophic for the hydropower operation of the Saguling Dam.
[ES] El cambio climático ha afectado a Indonesia, por ejemplo, incrementando la temperatura del aire en la superficie, incluso en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Este fenómeno conduce a la falta de agua en la estación seca, reduciendo la producción agrícola lo que es un gran obstáculo para su actividad. Además, la actividad humana ha producido cambios severos en LULC en la cuenca del Upper Citarum, Indonesia. Esto se debe al elevado crecimiento de la población en la región, por el que se han convertido campos de arroz y áreas boscosas en suelo urbano. De esta forma, el objetivo general de esta tesis es comprender y analizar el impacto de los cambios climáticos y LULC en el proceso hidrológico y su relación con los cambios históricos y futuros mediante el uso de modelos distribuidos espacialmente en la cuenca tropical del Upper Citarum. El modelo distribuido TETIS se ha implementado para obtener los resultados de escenarios pasados y futuros en los ciclos de agua y sedimentos. Se usaron batimetrías históricas anuales en el embalse para calibrar y validar el submodelo de sedimentos que involucra la evolución de la densidad de Miller y la eficiencia de retención de la ecuación de Brune. Con el fin de arrojar más luz sobre estos problemas, el escenario de cambio climático se ha implementado en base al modelo de cambio climático bajo las trayectorias RCP 45 y RCP 85. Además, para intentar resolver el problema LULC, también se ha implementado el LULC histórico y futuro. El modelo LCM se usó para pronosticar el LULC en 2029 y los resultados muestran, por un lado, una continuación en la expansión de las áreas urbanas a expensas de los arrozales contiguos. Los resultados determinaron que la deforestación y la urbanización fueron los factores más influyentes para la alteración de los procesos hidrológicos y sedimentológicos en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Por lo tanto, disminuye la evapotranspiración, aumenta la producción de agua al aumentar todos sus componentes; escorrentía, interflujo y flujo base. Los cambios en LULC están produciendo y producirán, un incremento relativamente pequeño de las tasas de erosión, aumentando el área excede la erosión de Tsl. La producción de sedimentos aumentará en 2029 como resultado del incremento de la erosión. Se espera que otros escenarios de LULC como la conservación, el plan gubernamental y los escenarios de vegetación natural tengan un incremento en la evapotranspiración total, y se espera que la producción de agua disminuya. El régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación se reducen drásticamente. Por lo tanto, habrá un incremento de la vida útil del embalse y la energía hidroeléctrica. El cambio climático altera la magnitud del equilibrio hídrico y puede identificarse a partir del cambio de infiltración, escorrentía, interflujo, flujo base y producción de agua. Esos incrementos finalmente cambian el régimen de inundación y erosión de la cuenca. La trayectoria RCP 85 tiene un mayor impacto en comparación con la trayectoria RCP 45 en el ciclo hidrológico y de sedimentos. El cambio de LULC tiene un mayor impacto en el balance hídrico, el régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación. La combinación del cambio climático y LULC tiene un mayor impacto en los flujos de equilibrio hídrico, erosión, inundación, sedimentación y será catastrófico para la operación hidroeléctrica de la presa Saguling.
[CA] El canvi climàtic ha afectat Indonèsia, per exemple, incrementant la temperatura de l'aire en la superfície, inclús en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Aquest fenomen conduïx a la falta d'aigua en l'estació seca, reduint la producció agrícola, el que és un gran obstacle per a la seua activitat. A més, l'activitat humana ha produït canvis severs en LULC en la conca de l'Upper Citarum, Indonèsia. Açò es deu a l'elevat creixement de la població en la regió, motiu pel qual s'han anat convertint camps d'arròs i àrees boscoses en sòl urbà. D'aquesta manera, l'objectiu general d'aquesta tesi és comprendre i analitzar l'impacte dels canvis climàtics i LULC en el procés hidrològic i la seua relació amb els canvis històrics i futurs per mitjà de l'ús de models distribuïts espacialment en la conca tropical de l'Upper Citarum. El model distribuït TETIS s'ha implementat per a obtindre els resultats d'escenaris passats i futurs en els cicles de l'aigua i sediments. Es van usar batimetries històriques anuals en l'embassament per a calibrar i validar el submodel de sediments que involucra l'evolució de la densitat de Miller i l'eficiència de retenció de l'equació de Brune. Amb la finalitat de donar més llum a aquests problemes, l'escenari de canvi climàtic s'ha implementat basant-se en el model de canvi climàtic davall les trajectòries RCP 45 i RCP 85. A més, per a intentar resoldre el problema LULC, també s'ha implementat el LULC històric i futur. El model LCM es va usar per a pronosticar el LULC en 2029 i els resultats mostren, d'una banda, una continuació en l'expansió de les àrees urbanes a costa dels arrossars contigus. Els resultats van determinar que la desforestació i la urbanització van ser els factors més influents per a l'alteració dels processos hidrològics i sedimentològics en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Per tant, disminuïx l'evapotranspiració, augmenta la producció d'aigua en augmentar tots els seus components; escorrentia, interflux i flux base. Els canvis en LULC estan produint i produiran, un increment relativament xicotet de les taxes d'erosió, augmentant l'àrea excedix l'erosió de Tsl. La producció de sediments augmentarà en 2029 com a resultat de l'increment de l'erosió. S'espera que altres escenaris de LULC com la conservació, el pla governamental i els escenaris de vegetació natural tinguen un increment en l'evapotranspiració total, i s'espera que la producció d'aigua disminuïsca. El règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació es reduïxen dràsticament. Per tant, hi haurà un increment de la vida útil de l'embassament i l'energia hidroelèctrica. El canvi climàtic altera la magnitud de l'equilibri hídric i pot identificar-se a partir del canvi d'infiltració, escorrentia, interflux, flux base i producció d'aigua. Eixos increments finalment canvien el règim d'inundació i erosió de la conca. La trajectòria RCP 85 té un major impacte en comparació amb la trajectòria RCP 45 en el cicle hidrològic i de sediments. El canvi de LULC té un major impacte en el balanç hídric, el règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació. La combinació del canvi climàtic i LULC té un major impacte en els fluxos d'equilibri hídric, erosió, inundació, sedimentació i serà catastròfic per a l'operació hidroelèctrica de la presa Saguling.
thank the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI), for granting me the opportunity to pursue PhD study and adventure in Europe. The authors are also thankful to the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00).
Siswanto, SY. (2020). Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia) [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/153152
TESIS

Es gibt zwei Hauptpfade, über die der Mensch die terrestrische Biosphäre verändert: 1) direkt durch Landnutzungswandel (LNW) und 2) indirekt durch Klimawandel (KW), welcher seinerseits zu Ökosystemveränderungen führt. Die vorliegende Dissertation unternimmt den Versuch, die vom Menschen über beide diese Pfade verursachten Veränderungen konsistent und quantitativ zu bestimmen. Die Analyse basiert auf einem integrierten Indikator für makro-skalige Veränderungen der biogeochemikalischen Eigenschaften und der Ökosystemstruktur. Große Verschiebungen bei diesen grundlegenden Bausteinen der Biosphäre bedeuten ein Risiko für komplexere Ökosystemeigenschaften, da sie möglicherweise lange bestehende biotische Interaktionen unterbrechen. Die Arbeit stützt sich auf Simulationen mit dem dynamischen globalen Vegetations-, Agrar- und Hydrologiemodell LPJmL, um zu bestimmen, wie biogeochemische Eigenschaften und die Ökosystemstruktur auf historischen LNW und KW reagiert haben. Für die Zukunftsprojektionen wird LPJmL mit einer großen Anzahl an Klima- und Landnutzungsszenarien angetrieben. Laut den Simulationsergebnissen haben sich schwere Ökosystemveränderungen durch LNW und KW von lediglich 0,5% um 1700 auf 25-31% der Landoberfläche heute ausgedehnt. Landnutzung war in der Vergangenheit der wichtigste anthropogene Treiber schwerer Ökosystemveränderungen. Für das 21. Jahrhundert zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass KW voraussichtlich in allen außer den ambitioniertesten Mitigationsszenarien den Platz als Haupttreiber schwerer Ökosystemveränderungen übernehmen wird. Einige Landnutzungsszenarien nehmen an, dass zukünftige Effizienzsteigerungen trotz Bevölkerungswachtum eine Verringerung der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche ermöglichen. Doch auch verminderte LNW-Auswirkungen werden wahrscheinlich nicht ausreichen, um die Zunahme von Klimafolgen zu kompensieren, so dass die vom Menschen verursachte Transformation der Biosphäre in diesem Jahrhundert wahrscheinlich unabhängig vom Szenario wachsen wird.
There are two major pathways of human interference with the terrestrial biosphere: 1) directly through land use change (LUC) and 2) indirectly through anthropogenic climate change (CC) which in turn drives ecosystem change. This dissertation presents an attempt to assess human-induced biosphere change through both these pathways in a consistent and quantitative way. The analysis is based on an integrated indicator of macro-scale changes in biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure. Large shifts in these basic building blocks of the biosphere are taken to indicate a risk to more complex ecosystem properties as they potentially disrupt long-standing biotic interactions. This dissertation relies on simulations with the dynamic global vegetation, agriculture and hydrology model LPJmL to quantify how biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure have responded to historical LUC and CC. For future projections LPJmL is driven by a large number of CC and LUC scenarios, using the same indicator to measure the impact on the biosphere. Simulation results show that major impacts on the biosphere from CC and LUC have expanded from merely 0.5% of the land surface in 1700 to 25-31% of the land surface today. Land use has been the main anthropogenic driver causing major ecosystem change in the past. For the future, results show that CC is expected to take over as the main anthropogenic driver of major ecosystem change during this century in all but the most ambitious climate mitigation scenarios. Despite a growing world population, some land use scenarios project that future efficiency improvements will allow for a reduction of agricultural land and hence a reduction of the impact of LUC on the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, results also show that reduced LUC impacts will likely not be able to compensate for the increase in CC impacts, and human-induced transformation of the biosphere is likely to grow during this century regardless of the considered scenario.

Growing populations, continued economic development, and limited natural resources are critical factors affecting sustainable development. These factors are particularly pertinent in developing countries in which large parts of the population live at a subsistence level and options for sustainable development are limited. Therefore, addressing sustainable land use strategies in such contexts requires that decision makers have access to evidence-based impact assessment tools that can help in policy design and implementation. Ex-ante impact assessment is an emerging field poised at the science-policy interface and is used to assess the potential impacts of policy while also exploring trade-offs between economic, social and environmental sustainability targets. The objective of this study was to operationalise the impact assessment of land use scenarios in the context of developing countries that are characterised by limited data availability and quality. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was selected for this study because it allows for the integration of various sustainability dimensions, the handling of complexity, and the incorporation of local stakeholder perceptions. FoPIA, which was originally developed for the European context, was adapted to the conditions of developing countries, and its implementation was demonstrated in five selected case studies. In each case study, different land use options were assessed, including (i) alternative spatial planning policies aimed at the controlled expansion of rural-urban development in the Yogyakarta region (Indonesia), (ii) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed (Tunisia), (iii) the use of land conversion and the afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan district (China), (iv) agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur district (India), and (v) land division and privatisation in Narok district (Kenya). The FoPIA method was effectively adapted by dividing the assessment into three conceptual steps: (i) scenario development; (ii) specification of the sustainability context; and (iii) scenario impact assessment. A new methodological approach was developed for communicating alternative land use scenarios to local stakeholders and experts and for identifying recommendations for future land use strategies. Stakeholder and expert knowledge was used as the main sources of information for the impact assessment and was complemented by available quantitative data. Based on the findings from the five case studies, FoPIA was found to be suitable for implementing the impact assessment at case study level while ensuring a high level of transparency. FoPIA supports the identification of causal relationships underlying regional land use problems, facilitates communication among stakeholders and illustrates the effects of alternative decision options with respect to all three dimensions of sustainable development. Overall, FoPIA is an appropriate tool for performing preliminary assessments but cannot replace a comprehensive quantitative impact assessment, and FoPIA should, whenever possible, be accompanied by evidence from monitoring data or analytical tools. When using FoPIA for a policy oriented impact assessment, it is recommended that the process should follow an integrated, complementary approach that combines quantitative models, scenario techniques, and participatory methods.
Bevölkerungswachstum und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Kombination mit begrenzt verfügbaren, natürlichen Ressourcen sind kritische Faktoren für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung. Diese Situation ist besonders in Entwicklungsländern anzutreffen, in denen große Teile der Bevölkerung am Existenzminimum leben und es oft wenig Spielraum für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung gibt. Entscheidungsträger fragen daher verstärkt wissenschafts-basierte Instrumente zur Vorab- (ex-ante) Folgenabschätzung (Impact assessment) für die Konzeption und Umsetzung nachhaltiger Strategien nach. So genannte ex-ante Methoden zielen hierbei auf die Beurteilung der zukünftigen Folgen von Szenarien (z.B. alternative Politikmaßnahmen) und Konflikte zwischen ökonomischen, sozialen und ökologischen Nachhaltigkeitszielen ab. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, die Folgenabschätzungen von Landnutzungsszenarien auf die nachhaltige Entwicklung in Entwicklungsländern zu ermöglichen. Eine besondere Schwierigkeit stellt dabei die oft mangelhafte Verfügbarkeit von Daten dar, die quantitative Analysen bzw. den Einsatz von computergestützten Modellen meist nur sehr begrenzt möglich macht. Um mit diesen Schwierigkeiten umzugehen, wurde die ursprünglich für die Europäische Union entwickelte ‚Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment‘ (FoPIA)-Methode an die Bedingungen in Entwicklungsländern angepasst und in fünf regionalen Fallstudien angewendet. Die analysierten Landnutzungsszenarien umfassten dabei (i) alternative Raumplanungsmaßnahmen zur kontrollierten Stadt-Land-Entwicklung in Yogyakarta, Indonesien; (ii) die Umsetzung von boden- und wasserkonservierenden Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion im Oum Zessar Wassereinzugsgebiet, Tunesien; (iii) Landumwandlung und Aufforstungsmaßnahmen zur Eindämmung von Bodenerosion in Guyuan, China; (iv) landwirtschaftliche Intensivierung und Potenziale des ökologischen Landbaus in Bijapur, Indien; sowie (v) Landteilung und -privatisierung in Narok, Kenia. Die angepasste FoPIA Methode wurde in drei konzeptionelle Schritte unterteilt: (i) die Szenarienentwicklung, (ii) die Spezifikation des Nachhaltigkeitskontexts, und (iii) die Szenariofolgenabschätzung. Ein neuer methodischer Ansatz lag in der Entwicklung alternativer Landnutzungsszenarien mit regionalen Akteuren und auf der Ableitung von Handlungsempfehlungen für zukünftige Landnutzungsstrategien. Für die Szenario-folgenabschätzung wurde primär das Wissen regionaler Experten und Akteure genutzt und durch quantitative Daten, sofern verfügbar, ergänzt. Auf der Grundlage der in den fünf Regionen gewonnenen Erkenntnisse lässt sich schlussfolgern, dass die angepasste FoPIA Methode dazu geeignet ist, eine Szenariofolgenabschätzung zu strukturieren und ein hohes Maß an Transparenz zu gewährleisten. Sie ermöglicht kausale Zusammenhänge von Landnutzungsproblemen zu diagnostizieren, die Kommunikation zwischen unterschiedlichen Akteuren und Experten zu verbessern sowie mögliche Konflikte zwischen ökonomischen, sozialen und ökologischen Nachhaltigkeitszielen zu erkennen und darzustellen. Insgesamt sollte die FoPIA Methode jedoch nicht als isolierte Methode zur Folgenabschätzung verstanden werden, sondern, sofern die Datenverfügbarkeit dies zulässt, durch weiterführende Analysen ergänzt werden. Für die Anwendung der FoPIA Methode im Rahmen der Politikfolgenabschätzung wird ein integrierter, komplementärer Ansatz empfohlen, der quantitative Modelle, Szenariotechniken und partizipative Methoden kombiniert.

Climate change, land use change and invasive species are transforming global biodiversity at multiple scales. Projections are for threats to biodiversity from these global changes to continue into the future, with varied and discernible distribution changes for many species. Concomitantly, these global changes will interact with each other to further exacerbate the problem, as exemplified in this study. In New Zealand, climate change is expected to affect landscapes, fragmented and disturbed by land use change, further increasing the potential invasibility of these landscapes for a suite of existing and emerging invasive species. This thesis is concerned with the combined effects of climate and land use changes on the spatial distribution of the sub-tropical invasive plant, Tradescantia fluminensis (Vell.). The contribution of this thesis is to undertake an integrated assessment of the distribution change for this species in New Zealand. On the basis that climatic variables affect species distribution at larger scales, while land use, habitat, disturbance and dispersal mechanisms affect distribution at smaller scales, two separate analyses were undertaken. At the national scale BioCLIM and the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were implemented using the variables: minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A, and annual water deficit (November-February). At the landscape scale, only ENFA was implemented, using the variables: MTminJ-A, ECOSAT riparian classes (habitat) and proximity to roads, urban areas and streams (disturbance and dispersal sources). Three scenarios of climate change (CCSR B1-Low, CSIRO9 A1B-Mid and HadCM A1FI-High) and two scenarios of land use change (SmartGrowth and Buildout) were developed to the year 2050, using the CLIMPACTS Open Framework Modelling System and Geographic Information Systems, GIS, techniques respectively. The baseline species distribution model was extrapolated in ENFA, using the 2050 scenarios. Changes to potential threat from this species to protected areas at the landscape level were assessed spatially at the landscape level. This approach and its results are novel for this species. At the national scale the results for the modelling show that climate change will increase the potential habitat suitability of Tradescantia under all combined scenarios of CCSR, CSIRO9 and HadCM for mean minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A and Annual Water Deficit, AWD. At the case study landscape, in the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga also the modelling results showed that climate change and land use changes will increase the suitability for Tradescantia by 2050. The 'core' or highest suitability areas increase under all future scenarios. At the national level core suitability increased by about 13% for the CCSR:B1-Low and CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and 22% for HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenario on the North Island. On the South Island, core areas increased by a much lower margin - 1.4%, 2.3% and 2.9% for CCSR:B1-Low, CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenarios respectively. At the landscape level core areas increased by 5%, 8% and 21% for the CCSR:B1-Low+SmartGrowth, Darlam:A1b-Mid+SmartGrwoth and HadCM:A1FI-High+Build-out combined scenarios, respectively. This is true also for the Protected areas within the case study landscape, and indicate that the increasing if Tradescantia is able to track both climate and land use change through its dispersal and migration within the landscape 9 primarily in the inland and upland direction), then is will pose a greater risk to native habitats than at present. Integrated assessments and the outputs they produce are essential to exploring anticipated changes (through scenario-building) and in understanding the change spatial context and magnitude of projected changes from the combined effects of climate and land use changes into the future and need to be integrated into biodiversity-biosecurity management at multiple scales.

Aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen faster than any other transport sector to double between 1990 and 2005. Such emissions from aviation could increase another 700 percent globally, and at least 150 percent in the European Union (EU), by 2050 due to continuously increasing consumer demand. To reverse the trend of rising emissions writ large, the EU has set 2030 climate goals of reducing its GHG emissions by 40 percent (relative to 2005) and having 32 percent of gross final energy consumption from renewables. The EU’s recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED-II) calls for 14 percent of transport energy from renewables, gives multipliers to advanced biofuels, and restricts biomass that is from ecologically valuable lands or that causes land use change. Energy security and energy independence are also long-term EU goals. Many of these goals and targets have also been adopted by the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). Despite these efforts, options are limited to reduce aviation emissions compared to other transport sectors, leaving aviation biofuels, also known as renewable jet fuels (RJFs), as currently the only commercialized option. Against this backdrop, in this thesis scenario analyses were conducted to produce biomass from EU+EFTA lands, project RJF yields from this biomass, and estimate emissions savings of these RJFs compared to petroleum jet fuel. Particular effort was devoted to identifying biomass, biofuels, and EU+EFTA lands that comply with RED-II criteria. The two RJF pathways selected were hydroprocessed esters and fatty acid (HEFA) conversion of Camelina sativa vegetable oil and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis of forestry residue lignocellulosic biomass. Over 117 million hectares in the EU+EFTA was identified as available for Camelina sativa cultivation, which could yield over 64 Mt of RJF each year, or 113 percent of the total jet fuel consumed in the EU+EFTA in 2017. Conversely, if 50 percent of the forestry residues generated as by-products from EU+EFTA roundwood harvesting operations in 2017 were extracted from harvest sites, 40 Mt of forestry residues would be available as biomass, which would yield almost 7.6 Mt of RJF annually (13% of 2017 jet fuel consumption). If all 144 million hectares of EU+EFTA forest lands deemed available for wood supply were logged, 1,772 Mt of forestry residues would be produced in total (at 50 percent extraction), which could result in almost 337 Mt of RJF, or 590% of the jet fuel consumed in the region in 2017. Hence, RJF can be feasibly produced from biomass from EU+EFTA lands, in amounts that meet or exceed the annual jet fuel consumption of the EU+EFTA, and in ways that meet or exceed RED-II sustainability criteria. However, the proportion of these RJF yields to total annual EU+EFTA jet fuel consumption will decrease over time as the number of flights and their resulting emissions increase. The two RJFs also emit 67 percent and 91 percent fewer GHG emissions, respectively, than petroleum-based jet fuel, showing them to be important tools for the EU to meet its 2030 renewables and emissions reductions targets. Producing the biomass feedstocks and RJFs in these quantities will require the EU to make serious decisions on land use trade-offs, such as whether livestock production is more important than biofuel production.

The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the climate impact from different arable land use options and protein feeds aimed for cattle. This has been made by executing two life cycle assessments (LCAs). The first LCA aimed to compare the following three arable land use options: Cultivation of wheat used for production of bioethanol, carbon dioxide and DDGS Cultivation of rapeseed used for production of RME, rapeseed meal and glycerine Fallow in the form of long-term grassland The second LCA aimed to compare the three protein feeds DDGS, rapeseed meal and soybean meal. In the LCA of arable land, the functional unit 1 ha arable land during one year was used and the LCA had a cradle-to-grave perspective. The LCA of protein feeds had the functional unit 100 kg digestible crude protein and had a cradle-to-gate perspective, hence the use and disposal phases of the feeds were excluded. Bioethanol, DDGS and carbon dioxide produced at Lantmännen Agroetanol, Norrköping, were investigated in this study. The production of RME, rapeseed meal and glycerine were considered to occur at a large-scale plant in Östergötland, but no site-specific data was used. Instead, general data of Swedish production was used in the assessment. The wheat and rapeseed cultivations were considered to take place at the same Swedish field as the fallow takes place. The protein feed DDGS was produced at Lantmännen Agroetanol and the rapeseed meal was assumed to be produced at a general large-scale plant in Sweden. In the soybean meal scenario, a general case for the Brazilian state Mato Grosso was assumed and no specific production site was investigated. Data required for the LCAs was retrieved from literature, the LCI database Ecoinvent and from Lantmännen Agroetanol. In the LCA of arable land use options, system expansion was used on all products produced to be able to compare the wheat and rapeseed scenarios with the fallow scenario. In the LCA of protein feeds, system expansion was used on co-products. The products in the arable land use options and the co-products in the protein feed scenarios are considered to replace the production and use of products on the market with the same function. The result shows that the best arable land use option from a climate change perspective is to cultivate wheat and produce bioethanol, carbon dioxide and DDGS. This is since wheat cultivation has a higher yield per hectare compared to rapeseed and therefore a bigger amount of fossil products and feed ingredients can be substituted. To have the arable land in fallow is the worst option from a climate change perspective, since no products are produced that can substitute alternative products. Furthermore, the result shows that DDGS and rapeseed meal are to prefer before soybean meal from a climate change perspective, since soybean meal has a higher climate impact than DDGS and rapeseed meal. This can be explained by the smaller share of co-products produced in the soybean meal scenario compared to the DDGS and rapeseed meal scenarios. Since the production and use of co-products leads to avoided greenhouse gas emissions (since they substitute alternatives), the amount of co-products being produced is an important factor. A sensitivity analysis was also executed testing different system boundaries and variables critical for the result in both LCAs. The conclusion of this study is that arable land should be used to cultivate wheat in order to reduce the total climate impact from arable land. Furthermore, it is favorable for the climate if DDGS or rapeseed meal are used as protein feeds instead of imported soybean meal.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
In the last decade, Brazilian sugar-energy sector showed significant growth, mainly between 2003 and 2009, when a vigorous expansion of industrial plants and sugarcane farmings occurred. According to IBGE, the increase of sugarcane planted area in the country in that period was of around 64.5 %, concentrating on Cerrado areas in the south-central region states. The research conducted during the development of this thesis, aimed at analyze the effects of the expansion of sugarcane farmings, especially those affected by cover and land use in the midwest region of Minas Gerais, under two different time perspectives . The first covers the period between 2005 and 2010, while the second considers simulated scenarios for cover and land use in the year 2030. For this, we used census data, geoprocessing and environmental modeling techniques using the free platform EGO DYNAMICS. The results showed that sugarcane farmings expansion in the midwest concentrated in the towns of Arcos, Bambuí, Iguatama, Japaraíba, Lagoa da Prata and Luz, which had an increase of 74 % in planted area for the period from 2005 to 2010. Sugarcane expansion in the region occurred primarily on agriculture and pasture areas, exacerbating competition for land use. Among the major crops of the investigated towns, corn and soybeans were those that yielded more space for sugarcane, while beans and coffee farmings had increased planted area in that period. The results of this research confirmed the hypothesis that sugarcane farmings, because of their higher level of investment, tend to occupy the best lands, including those equipped with basic infrastructure (roads and electrification, for example). The two scenarios simulated for the year 2030 (with respective growth rates), considered different contexts experienced by the sugarcane sector and showed mixed results. In the first, generated with transition rates derived from the period 1995-2000, the pasture areas would remain roughly stable, with a decrease of sugarcane farmings by 24.7 %, but with increased area for other crops of around 40%. The second scenario, produced with rates that represent the range between 2005 and 2010, proved to be very favorable to sugarcane expansion, with an increase of 127.3 % of the planted area. Sugarcane expansion would occur especially on agriculture and pasture areas, which would decrease by 35 % and 27.1 % respectively. In this scenario, the remaining Cerrado vegetation would remain stable, with a small positive bias of 1.4 %. It is understood that the product of this study will provide information to decision makers, on a regional scale, for the creation of policies aimed at more efficient management of cover and land use in the midwest region of Minas Gerais.
Na última década, o setor sucroenergético brasileiro apresentou um crescimento significativo, sobretudo entre os anos de 2003 e 2009, ocasião em que ocorreu uma vigorosa expansão das unidades industriais e das lavouras de cana-de-açúcar. De acordo com dados do IBGE, o aumento da área plantada de cana no país, naquele período, foi da ordem de 64,5%, concentrando-se em áreas de Cerrado nos estados da região centro-sul. Na pesquisa realizada durante o desenvolvimento desta tese, buscou-se analisar os efeitos da expansão das lavouras de cana-de-açúcar, especialmente aqueles ocorridos sobre a cobertura e uso da terra na região centro-oeste de Minas Gerais, sob duas perspectivas temporais distintas. A primeira contempla o período entre 2005 e 2010, enquanto a segunda considera cenários simulados para a cobertura e uso da terra no ano de 2030. Para tanto, utilizou-se dados censitários, técnicas de geoprocessamento e modelagem ambiental com o uso da plataforma livre DINAMICA EGO. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que no centro-oeste mineiro o aumento das lavouras de cana concentrou-se nos municípios de Arcos, Bambuí, Iguatama, Japaraíba, Lagoa da Prata e Luz, os quais tiveram um acréscimo de 74% na área plantada no período de 2005 a 2010. A expansão da cana naquela região ocorreu prioritariamente sobre áreas de agricultura e pastagens, exacerbando a competição pelo uso da terra. Entre as principais culturas agrícolas dos municípios investigados, o milho e a soja foram aquelas que aparentemente mais cederam espaço para cana, ao passo que as lavouras de feijão e café apresentaram aumento da área plantada naquele período. Os resultados desta pesquisa confirmaram a hipótese de que as lavouras de cana-de-açúcar, dado ao seu maior nível de investimento, tendem a ocupar as melhores terras, incluindo aquelas dotadas de infraestrutura básica (rede viária e eletrificação, por exemplo). Os dois cenários simulados para o ano de 2030 (com respectivas taxas de crescimento), a partir de contextos distintos vivenciados pelo setor sucroalcooleiro, apresentaram resultados díspares. No primeiro, gerado com taxas de transição oriundas do período de 1995 a 2000, as áreas de pastagens se manteriam praticamente estáveis, com uma diminuição das lavouras de cana em 24,7%, mas com aumento da área destinada a outros cultivos na ordem de 40%. O segundo cenário, produzido com taxas que representam o intervalo entre 2005 e 2010, mostrou-se bastante favorável à expansão da cana-de-açúcar, com aumento de 127,3% da área plantada. Esta expansão da cana se daria especialmente sobre áreas com agricultura e pastagens, as quais sofreriam reduções de 35% e 27,1%, respectivamente. Neste cenário, a vegetação remanescente de Cerrado se manteria estável, com uma pequena oscilação positiva de 1,4%. Entende-se que o produto deste estudo poderá fornecer subsídios aos tomadores de decisão, em escala regional, para a criação de políticas voltadas a uma gestão mais eficiente da cobertura e uso da terra na região centro-oeste de Minas Gerais.

Les bassins périurbains, constitués de zones urbaines, agricoles et naturelles, sont des bassinsversants complexes à étudier. L’augmentation des surfaces imperméables et les modifications deschemins d’écoulement par les réseaux d’assainissement influencent leur hydrologie. Ces modificationssont notamment liées aux choix de modes de gestion des eaux pluviales : réseaux unitaires,réseaux séparatifs, infiltration à la parcelle, etc. La modélisation hydrologique spatialisée, quirend compte de l’hétérogénéité des bassins versants, est un outil permettant d’évaluer les différentsenjeux en termes d’occupation du sol et de gestion des eaux pluviales. Cependant, peu demodèles ont été construits pour être appliqués aux bassins périurbains, à l’échelle des gestionnaires(˜ 100 km2) et pour des simulations sur de longues périodes (> 10 ans). La modélisationhydrologique doit donc être adaptée afin de mieux capter les spécificités des milieux périurbainstelles que l’hétérogénéité de l’occupation du sol et la connexion de certaines zones urbaines à unréseau d’assainissement.Ce travail de thèse a consisté à développer un nouvel outil de modélisation adapté à ces problématiques: le modèle distribué horaire J2000P. Ce modèle simule les processus hydrologiquesen milieux ruraux et urbains et prend en compte les réseaux d’assainissement, les connexionsà ces réseaux et les déversements des déversoirs d’orage (DO). Le modèle a été mis en oeuvresur le bassin périurbain de l’Yzeron (˜ 130 km2), situé à l’ouest de Lyon. L’évaluation, effectuéeà l’exutoire de différents sous-bassins de tailles et d’occupations du sol différentes, montre desrésultats très encourageants. Le modèle a tendance à sous-estimer le débit mais la dynamiquedes pics est bien représentée tout comme le déversement des DO. Suite aux résultats de l’évaluation,une analyse de sensibilité « pas à pas » du modèle a été réalisée et différentes hypothèsesde fonctionnement du bassin ont été formulées pour améliorer la compréhension du modèle etdes processus représentés. Le modèle a ensuite été utilisé pour tester l’impact de modificationsde l’occupation des sols et/ou de la gestion des eaux pluviales sur la réponse hydrologique. Lemodèle montre que la gestion de l’occupation du sol a moins d’influence sur l’hydrologie dubassin que la gestion du réseau d’assainissement
Growing urbanization and related anthropogenic processes have a high potential to influencehydrological process dynamics. Typical consequences are an increase of surface imperviousnessand modifications of water flow paths due to artificial channels and barriers (combined and separatedsystem, sewer overflow device, roads, ditches, etc.). Periurban catchments, at the edgeof large cities, are especially affected by fast anthropogenic modifications. They usually consistof a combination of natural areas, rural areas with dispersed settlements and urban areas mostlycovered by built zones and spots of natural surfaces. Spatialized hydrological modeling tools, simulatingthe entire hydrological cycle and able to take into account the important heterogeneityof periurban watersheds can be used to assess the impact of stormwater management practiceson their hydrology.We propose a new modeling tool for these issues : the hourly distributed J2000P model.This model simulates the hydrological processes in rural and urban areas and takes into accountthe sewerage networks, connections to these networks and overflows from sewer overflow devices(SOD). The application site is the Yzeron catchment (˜ 130 km2), located in the West of Lyon.The evaluation, conducted at the outlet of different sub-basins with different sizes and landuse, shows very encouraging results. The model tends to underestimate the discharge but thedynamics of the peaks and the SOD overflows are well simulated. The model is also used to testthe impact of changes in land use and/or stormwater management on the hydrological response.The results show that land use management has less impact on the hydrology of the catchmentthan stormwater management

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The world population recently surpassed the amount of 7 billion people. The Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, reported that there is more than 1 billion people on the map of global hunger. Increase food production, reduce poverty and hunger, combined with local, regional and global environmental problems, it has been the major challenges for global managers. It is in this context that the present tropical savannas as potential producers and providers, specially of food to meet these demands for proteins, grains, fiber and energy for the entire globe. The Cerrado, second Brazilian biome in area, is the Brazilian savannah, which holds a large and rich biodiversity. Over the last fifty years, the process of land use and cover changes brought about profound changes in the Cerrado, especially in the vast, flat areas of the State of Goiás. Group study and research of the phenomenon of land-use land cover change and they are developing research in various regions and continents of the world with the use of mathematical / statistical modeling and logistic regressions in urban and rural areas. Model such phenomena helps to outline scenarios for the optimization of food production, safeguarding the natural areas remaining. This paper presents the development of research and creation of the possibility of conversion to the Agriculture Index (IPCA). This index, based on logistic regression, seeks to establish patterns in the occurrence of the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Cerrado Goiano. The results of this research demonstrate that allowed the construction of models to assess use change processes and land cover is fully feasible. Although it was not possible the ranking of variables, drivers in degree of importance, it was possible to establish the top 25 attributes in the agricultural expansion process in the cut of the study. The IPCA has measured that maintaining the current agricultural expansion characteristics in the last 12 years, there are more than 58,790 km2 (~ 17.3% of the territory of Goiás) able to be converted to the practice of agriculture. This increase would represent more than double the area devoted to agricultural use in the State of Goias under the criteria of IPCA. This construction requires the knowledge in several areas, since it requires a transdisciplinary approach to the problem to understand its complexity, in order to identify the variables, drivers who run and provide the alteration processes of land use, to enable the instrument to assist and support managers,public and private, in decision-making with regard to this important Brazilian biome.
A população mundial ultrapassou recentemente a quantia de 7 bilhões de habitantes. A Organização das Nações Unidas para Alimentação e Agricultura, FAO, divulgou que há mais de 1 bilhão de pessoas no mapa da fome global. Aumentar a produção de alimentos, diminuir a miséria e a fome, aliados aos problemas ambientais locais, regionais e globais, tem sido os grandes desafios para os gestores mundiais. É nesse contexto que se apresentam as savanas tropicais como potenciais produtoras e provedoras de alimentos para satisfazer essas demandas por proteínas, grãos, fibras e energia para todo o globo terrestre. O Cerrado, segundo Bioma brasileiro em área, é a savana brasileira, detentora de uma grande e rica biodiversidade. Nos últimos cinquenta anos, o processo de mudanças do uso e cobertura da terra provocou profundas mudanças no Bioma Cerrado, em especial nas vastas e planas regiões do Estado de Goiás. Grupos de estudo e pesquisa do fenômeno das mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra vêm desenvolvendo pesquisas em várias regiões e continentes do mundo com o uso da modelagem matemático/estatística e de regressões logísticas em áreas urbanas e rurais. Modelar tais fenômenos ajuda a traçar cenários para a otimização da produção de alimentos, salvaguardando as áreas de remanescentes naturais. O presente trabalho apresenta a pesquisa de desenvolvimento e criação do Índice de Possibilidade de Conversão à Agricultura (IPCA). Esse índice, baseado na regressão logística, procura estabelecer os padrões na ocorrência da expansão da fronteira agrícola no Cerrado goiano. Os resultados obtidos com esta pesquisa permitiram demonstrar que a construção de modelos para aferir processos de mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra é plenamente factível. Apesar de não ter sido possível o ranqueamento das variáveis, drivers, em grau de importância, foi possível estabelecer os 25 principais atributos no processo de expansão agrícola no recorte do estudo. O IPCA aferiu que, mantendo-se as atuais características de expansão da agricultura, existem mais de 58.790 km2 (~ 17,3% do território goiano) possíveis de serem convertidos para a prática da agricultura. Este acréscimo representaria mais do que dobrar a área dedicada ao uso agrícola no Estado de Goiás sob os critérios do IPCA. A construção de modelos demanda o conhecimento em várias áreas, uma vez que exige uma visão transdisciplinar do problema para entender sua complexidade. O índice demonstrou ser um instrumento prático na tarefa de auxiliar e subsidiar os gestores, públicos e privados, nas tomadas de decisão no que se refere a este importante Bioma brasileiro.

Les changements d’usage et occupation des sols résultent d’activités naturelles et anthropiques et peuvent avoir un impact négatif sur les ressources naturelles et même agricoles. Dans les régions métropolitaines, les principaux changements d’usage des sols sont ceux qui proviennent de la transformation des terres agricoles en des couvertures artificielles, essentiellement pour des usages urbains, industriels, de transports et de loisirs. Ces usages sont en concurrence avec les utilisations agricoles en raison, surtout, de la croissance démographique et de la recherche de nouvelles aires de construction. Cette concurrence permanente et la rapidité dont elle se produit a contribué largement à fragmentation et la dispersion à la fois des terres agricoles et des usages artificiels. Ces changements posent de défis, en particulier dans les domaines de la sécurité alimentaire, mais aussi de la nécessité de préserver les sols et la biodiversité dans des contextes plus urbanisés. Les propriétaires fonciers jouent un rôle majeur en ce qui concerne les changements d’occupation des sols. Dans un contexte périurbain, trois acteurs clefs sont généralement identifiés dans le processus de décision de changement d'utilisation ou la couverture des sols : 1) Les investisseurs ou les promoteurs immobiliers, qui souhaitent obtenir un rendement maximal dans un contexte de développement urbain, en essayant d’obtenir la marge de profit la plus élevée possible. Leurs décisions dépendent souvent de la croissance démographique, de la recherche de nouveaux logements et des stratégies de planification et d’organisation du territoire ; 2) les agriculteurs qui sont affectés par les attentes concernant le développement urbain et qui prétendent capitaliser leurs investissements, ou les agriculteurs qui prétendent maintenir leurs terrains pour une question de consommation personnelle, agrément et/ou style de vie ; 3) à une échelle plus large, les acteurs qui planifient et définissent des stratégies pour l’usage futur de l’occupation du sol. (…) Les résultats obtenus dans le cadre de cette thèse devraient permettre aux décideurs d’observer différents futurs possibles dans des scénarios de type "et si", leur permettant ainsi d’anticiper les incertitudes futures et, par conséquent, de choisir l'avenir le plus désirable en matière de l’usage et de l'occupation des sols
Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) occurs as a consequence of both natural and human activities, causing impacts on biophysical and agricultural resources. In enlarged urban regions, the major changes are those that occur from agriculture to urban uses. Urban uses compete with rural ones due among others, to population growth and housing demand. This competition and the rapid nature of change can lead to fragmented and scattered land use development generating new challenges, for example, concerning food security, soil and biodiversity preservation, among others. Landowners play a key role in LUCC. In peri-urban contexts, three interrelated key actors are pre-eminent in LUCC complex process: 1) investors or developers, who are waiting to take advantage of urban development to obtain the highest profit margin. They rely on population growth, housing demand and spatial planning strategies; 2) farmers, who are affected by urban development and intend to capitalise on their investment, or farmers who own property for amenity and lifestyle values; 3) and at a broader scale, land use planners/ decision-makers. (…) To model LUCC a CA-Markov, an ANN-multilayer perceptron, and an ABM approach were applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on farmers’ intentions in different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the most significant drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in the forest and semi-natural areas in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognised in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, statistical analysis to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements and a participatory workshop with local stakeholders to validate the achieved results were applied. These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in ‘what if’ scenarios, allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future

Digital analytic tools offer great potential to enhance town and city planning. Software that facilitates the modeling of possible urban design future scenarios can help planners and stakeholders in a city simulate economic, ecological, and social impacts of urban design choices. The Envision Tomorrow analytic suite is a software program that has been used to enhance participatory, small-group urban planning exercises in the Sustainable Places Project in four small cities in central Texas. This suite features formula-based measurements that relate aspects of the built environment, such as parking ratios and land uses, to indicators related to sustainability impacts. These outcomes range from demographic and density characteristics of new planning scenarios to their effects on municipal budgets and household water and energy consumption. Envision Tomorrow is analyzed in terms of its use in the Sustainable Places Project. While the town scenarios designed in this process reflect strong sustainable design principles, process analysis and stakeholder interviews suggest that the analytic indicators did not have major impacts on the community design process itself. Software use should be combined with more focus on outreach and education efforts to make modeling more representative and effective.
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A regional planning model is designed to facilitate coordinated land use and transportation planning, yet have a sufficiently simple structure to enable quick scenario turnaround. The model, TransPLUM, is built on two existing commercial software products: the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM); and a four-stage travel model implemented in a standard software package. Upon creating scenarios users are able to examine a host of results (zonal densities, origin-destination trip flows and travel times by mode, network link flows, etc) which may prompt modification of a reference land use plan and/or network plan. A zonal density-accessibility ratio is described: an index which identifies the relative utilization of a zone and which could serve as a coordinating feedback mechanism. The model was implemented for a pilot study area – the Winnipeg Capital Region. Development of a baseline scenario is discussed.

Land use/land cover (LULC) change and variations in precipitation can alter the quantity and quality of freshwater flows. The Mission-Aransas (M-A) estuary depends on inputs of freshwater and material from streams in order to maintain its ecological integrity. Freshwater inflow estimates for the M-A estuary have been established, but no analyses using scenarios of LULC change and precipitation variability have been conducted that inform how freshwater inflows could be impacted. A land change analysis for the M-A region was conducted by classifying two Landsat images for the years 1990 and 2010. A large degree of LULC change occurred within the M-A region during this time; with 27.1% of the land area experiencing LULC change. Furthermore, developed land increased by 44.9%. A SWAT hydrological model was developed to model the quantity and quality of freshwater inflows. SWAT was calibrated at a monthly scale using data from a stream gage. Model evaluations indicated that the model had a good performance rating with a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.66 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.66 for the calibration period; and an NS of 0.76 and R2 of 0.78 for the validation period. Three LULC change scenarios and three precipitation scenarios were developed to be used in a scenario analysis with the calibrated SWAT model. Each LULC change scenario represents a different amount of developed land (3.4, 3.7, and 4.7% of watershed area). Precipitation data was analyzed to select weather data for each precipitation scenario that each had different amounts of annual precipitation (763, 907, and 996 mm). A scenario analysis was conducted that analyzed how stream/channel flows and loads of sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were impacted under scenario conditions. A general increase in all output variables was exhibited as the amount of precipitation and developed land increased; with impacts from precipitation variability outweighing impacts from varying amounts of developed land. Furthermore, sediment loads were the variable most impacted by differing amounts of developed land. This study provides information on how LULC and precipitation can influence watershed hydrology that can be used in watershed management for the M-A region.

This dissertation describes a proposed methodology for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) with the purpose of improving the process by making it both more substantive and quantitative. The general principles of the approach include the following: use of effect-based analyses where selected Valued Component (VC) sensitivities are identified first and then effect pathways are determined building bottom-up linkages from VC sensitivities to potential stressors or combinations of stressors to effect drivers and forces behind the drivers. Models were developed based on statistical or historic trend analysis or literature review that predicted the responses of the VCs to changes in effect drivers. Further, scenarios of divergent futures were created that involved different developments of each effect driver or force, and finally the models were applied to each scenario to project the state of the studied VCs. A practical implementation was conducted to demonstrate the use of the proposed methods on future population trends of two anadromous salmon species from the Cowichan River, British Columbia, Chinook and Coho. The assessment was conducted for both early freshwater and marine phases of their life. For the freshwater phase, the assessment focused on two main factors affecting salmon survival, streamflow and stream temperature and established two main drivers affecting these stressors, land use and climate change, and two main forces behind these drivers, Local and Global human development driven change, respectively. Effects of stream temperature and streamflow on salmon freshwater survival were simulated using two models; one was based on Chinook freshwater survival correlations with stream temperature and was developed only for Chinook, and the other was based on literature-derived temperature and streamflow thresholds and was developed for both species. Connections between the stressors (stream temperature and streamflow) and drivers (land use and climate change) were established through a hydrologic model and stream temperature regression model. For the marine environment, models were created using Pearson correlation and stepwise regression analysis examining links between survival of Cowichan River Chinook and Strait of Georgia hatchery-raised and wild Coho and various environmental variables of the nearshore zone of Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca Strait. The models were applied to project future salmon survival under four future scenarios for 2050 that were created by combining two opposite scenarios of land use in the watershed, forest conservation and development, and two climate change scenarios, extreme and moderate. Scenario projections showed a decrease in overall (combined early freshwater marine) survival by 2050 for all three studied salmon populations. None of them are likely to survive in scenarios with extreme climate change, while scenarios with moderate climate change showed positive survival rates although lower than present-day baseline levels. Analysis also showed that land use management within the Cowichan River watershed can also affect freshwater survival of both Chinook and Coho and marine survival of Chinook through influence of river discharge on nearshore processes. However, our land-use management scenarios have considerably weaker effect than climate change on salmon survival. Therefore, we conclude that land use management alone is not sufficient to offset effects of climate change on salmon survival.
Graduate

Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of storm events that would increase flooding hazards. Urbanization associated with land use and land cover change has altered hydrological cycles by increasing stormwater runoff, reducing baseflow and increasing flooding hazards. Combined urbanization and climate change impacts on long-term riparian flooding during future growth are likely to affect more socially vulnerable populations. Growth strategies and green infrastructure are critical planning interventions for minimizing urbanization impacts and mitigating flooding hazards. Within the social-ecological systems planning framework, this empirical research evaluated the effects of planning interventions (infill development and stormwater detention) through a risk assessment in three studies. First, a climate sensitivity study using SWAT modeling was conducted for building a long-term flooding hazard index (HI) and determining climate change impact scenarios. A Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) was constructed using socio-economic variables and statistical methods. Subsequently, the long-term climate change-induced flooding risk index (RI) was formulated by multiplying HI and SoVI. Second, growth strategies in four future growth scenarios developed through the BMA ULTRA-ex project were evaluated through land use change input in SWAT modeling and under climate change impact scenarios for the effects on the risk indices. Third, detention under climate sensitivity study using SWAT modeling was investigated in relation to long-term flooding hazard indices. The results illustrated that increasing temperature decreases HI while increasing precipitation change and land use change would increase HI. In addition, there is a relationship between climate change and growth scenarios which illustrates a potential threshold when the impacts from land use and land cover change diminished under the High impact climate change scenario. Moreover, spatial analysis revealed no correlation between HI and SoVI in their current conditions. Nevertheless, the Current Trends scenario has planned to allocate more people living in the long-term climate change-induced flooding risk hotspots. Finally, the results of using 3% of the watershed area currently available for detention in the model revealed that a projected range of 0 to 8% watershed area would be required to mitigate climate change-induced flooding hazards to the current climate conditions. This research has demonstrated the value of using empirical study on a local scale in order to understand the place-based and watershed-specific flooding risks under linked social-ecological dynamics. The outcomes of evaluating planning interventions are critical to inform policy-makers and practitioners for setting climate change parameters in seeking innovations in planning policy and practices through a transdisciplinary participatory planning process. Subsequently, communities are able to set priorities for allocating resources in order to enhance people's livelihoods and invest in green infrastructure for building communities toward resilience and sustainability.

In the dominantly small-scale subsistence agricultural system of Ethiopia, where most of the organic inputs are not returned to soil and land is not used based on its best suitability, the contribution of agriculture to climate change mitigation/adaptation through reduction of greenhouse gases emission is undermined. When this low-input agricultural practice is coupled with rugged topography, high population pressure, generally low soil fertility, and looming climate change, ensuring food and nutrition security of society as well as sustainable use of land resources is practically impossible. Under such circumstances, finding alternative land uses, through scientific investigation, that meet the triple mandates of climate-smart agriculture under current and future climate is imperative. In view of this, a study was conducted in Hades Sub-watershed, eastern Ethiopia, to evaluate the carbon stock of major land uses, evaluate suitability of land for rainfed production of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), Maize (Zea mays L.), coffee (Coffea arabica), upland rice (Oryza sativa L.) and finger millet (Eleusine coracana L.), and project biomass production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties under changing climate and its contribution to carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission. Soil and vegetation samples were collected following recommended procedures. Secondary data on required crop parameters were collected for model calibration and validation in the biomass projection study made using the AquaCrop v6.0 model. Climate data of the study area was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and analyzed following standard procedures. Near-century (NC) (2017-2039) and Mid-century (MC) (2040-2069) climate was projected under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using four models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-Earth, MOHC-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and a Multi-model Ensemble. Biomass production projection, for the climate projected under the two emission scenarios using the four models and the ensemble, was made for late-maturing sorghum (Muyira-1) and maize (BH661) varieties. From the projected biomass, organic carbon and its equivalent CO2 were estimated. Furthermore, adaptation measures, involving adjusting planting dates and irrigation, under the changing climate were evaluated for their influence on biomass production under the time slices, RCPs, and models mentioned above. The carbon stock assessment study was conducted on four major land uses (cultivated, grazing, coffee agroforestry, and forest lands) identified in the study area. The land suitability assessment, using the maximum limitation method, study was conducted on four soil mapping units identified in the sub-watershed. Results indicate that total organic carbon stock (soil, litter plus live vegetation) in the sub-watershed ranged from 138.95 ton ha-1 in the crop land to 496.26 ton ha-1 in the natural forest. The soil organic carbon stock was found to be relatively higher than that of the vegetation carbon stock in the natural forest and coffee agroforestry land uses. The results of suitability evaluation revealed that the maximum current and potential (after corrective xix measures are taken) land suitability class for production of late-maturing sorghum (180-240 days cycle), maize (180-210 days crop cycle), finger millet (120 – 150 days cycle) and coffee in the sub-watershed is marginally suitable (S3c). The maximum current and potential land suitability for upland rice (120 days) is not suitable (N2c). The major permanent limiting factor is low mean temperature (14.6 C) of the growing period in the study area as compared to the optimum temperature required for optimum growth of the selected crops. The major soil and landscape limitations include steep slope, poor drainage of low-lying areas, shallow effective root zone in the upper slopes, low organic matter and available P for sorghum and maize, high pH for maize and wetness for coffee. In all the climate models and emission scenarios, minimum and maximum temperature increment is high during June-July-August-September (JJAS) compared with the other seasons. The modest rise in minimum temperature and the slight increment of maximum temperature during the crop growing seasons (February-March-April-May (FMAM) and JJAS will benefit late-maturing sorghum and maize production in the study area. For the same model, the projected biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration of the two crop varieties varied with time slice and the type of emission scenario used. Generally, increasing biomass production and carbon sequestration were projected for Mid-century (MC) than Near-century (NC) for most of the models used. Late planting would increase sorghum biomass yield and the corresponding organic carbon as compared to early planting as projected by most of the models under both RCPs. Most models predicted an increase in maize biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration if supplementary irrigation is used. The results of this study indicate that the current land uses are not enhancing carbon sequestration because of their exploitative nature and the soil/landscape and climate are not optimum for production of the crops studied. The rise in temperature in the coming 50 years is expected to create a more favorable condition for production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties. In order to enhance carbon sequestration, soil productivity and crop yield, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the current land uses and their management require re-visiting.
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences
Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)

This study integrated and applied effective communication concepts to highlight landscape as both medium and method to improve land use decisions, in the face of uncertainty, such as that posed by global climate change. Grounded theory guided the emergence of a communication model to illustrate impacts of land use scenarios in a study area. Scenarios incorporated socioeconomic trends and biophysical data, including localized climate projections and relevant audience traits assumed from prior assessments. Scenario implications were analyzed by comparing their ecological service values; the communication model’s effectiveness was evaluated against principles derived from the literature. Results suggest that a communication framework grounded in landscape can improve comprehension of environmental and human needs; however, further testing is needed. This framework can help enable broader landscape understanding through shared experience and engagement. Enhancing communication channels in this way is required as increasingly complex environmental problems demand more collaborative and communal solutions.
Landscape Architecture Canada Foundation

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
LULC changes from anthropogenic disturbance are a major impact-driven on ecosystems services and landscape metrics have been proposed for the assessment of impacts depicting spatial patterns determining the quality and state of interactions. Madeira island possesses a rich unique ecosystem the Laurel forest, a World Heritage inscribed by UNESCO. Along with a considerable amount of endemic biodiversity, fertile volcanic soils and humanized terraced landscape. Economic development and natural disasters have been triggering changes. Yet, future projections regarding LULC change are missing. In this study, the CORINE Land Cover from 1990 to 2012 is used to perform change analysis. The Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network implement in the TerrSet GIS software is applied to model four scenarios for the year 2040: Business as Usual, Conservation of Agricultural and Forests areas and Renaturation with the assessment of impacts using landscape metrics. The results show a negative trend for ecosystem services in 2040 at different rates. A trend for the fragmentation of the landscape is found mainly in Renaturation scenario with 890 patches. A more significant decrease for biomass production in Scenario Renaturation and a loss of areas for food production of -32 km2 in Scenario Conservation of Forests. Recreational and cultural areas with a loss of -32 km2 in Scenario Business as Usual followed by Conservation of Forest with -29 km2. This study contributes to Regional Planning Institutions improving monitoring and environmental resources management. Coupled with a practical application using landscape metrics for the assessment of ecosystem services accordingly with Burkhard and Maes (2017) in a context using future scenarios. Comparability from this study with other smalls islands can be performed.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
生物環境系統工程學研究所
103
Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE‐s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. In addition, the model parameters with the variation of seasons, weather, and spaces will have an extremely influence of the model prediction. Therefore, this study applies the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation(GLUE) methods to choose SWAT model parameters before calibration. In recent year, CLUE-s model showed the increasing forest(+1.2%) and urban(+36.8%) area, and decreasing agricultural(-15.6%) and others land(-15%); GCMs model showed the decreasing annual precipitation, increasing rainfall in wet season(+1.44%) and decreasing rainfall in dry season(-3.41%). Besides, this study had three scenario: land use change, climate change and both of land use change and climate change. SWAT model showed land use didn’t influence streamflow very much in the land use change scenario, rainfall is the main reason for streamflow. Therefore, there were similar results between climate change scenario and both of land use change and climate change scenario, and both scenario showed the increasing streamflow in July and August, much decreasing streamflow in March, April and October, little increasing streamflow on wet seasons(+0.12%), decreasing streamflow on dry season(-5.35%). Cause the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased, and decreasing annual streamflow. It will cause the problem of water shortage in the future. In addition, the study found the high streamflow will change from month 9-11 to month 8-10 in Datuan river, and it is because of rainfall. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed.

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Geographic Information Systems and Science
Among the main goals for the climate change, defined in the International protocols, are: i) to maintain of the global average rise of the temperature bellow 2º C, and ii) to reduce the Greenhouse Gases (GHG). The carbon dioxide (CO2) is the biggest responsible for GHG effect. Aiming at mitigating the CO2 emissions, the Portuguese government, under the international directives, has created plans and strategies. Some of this plans and strategies directly impact the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Management and they also directly influence the Ecosystems Services (ES) regardless of their nature. Carbon sequestration and storage for the LULC constitutes one of the ES and it brings important benefits for the accomplishment of the 2030 national goals, at an environmental level. Against this background, this project intends to evaluate the LULC management over carbon sequestration and storage performance, in a future perspective, using scenarios approaches combined with GIS tools. The intervention scenarios in the High case scenario show that policies effect over the ES produces 8% more than current policies and the Low case scenario produces 1%. The Business-as-Usual approach results indicate that the current policies performance over a future perspective may be responsible for the production of 5%. However, according the LULC trade-offs, current policies may reveal a loss of carbon sequestration and storage capacity over the territory, while in the intervention scenarios there is no loss evidence. This analysis allows us to conclude that the policies improvement may create conditions for a suitable LULC management, particularly in the carbon sequestration and storage, rather than the current framework of the policies.
Nos Protocolos internacionais encontram-se definidos os objetivos para o combate às alterações climáticas. Entre eles estão a manutenção do aumento da temperatura média anual abaixo dos 2º C e a redução da emissão dos gases de efeito estufa. O dióxido de carbono (CO2) é o principal gás responsável pelo efeito estufa. Por esse motivo, Portugal criou um conjunto de planos e estratégias, visando a mitigação das emissões de CO2. Alguns destes planos e estratégias, têm um impacto direto na Gestão do uso e ocupação do solo, influenciando, ainda, os serviços de ecossistemas, independente da sua natureza. O sequestro e armazenamento de carbono constituem um desses serviços, cujos benefícios se repercutem no cumprimento das metas nacionais para 2030 em matéria ambiental. Neste contexto, este projeto tem como objetivo a avaliação das políticas de gestão do uso e ocupação do solo no desempenho futuro do sequestro e armazenamento de carbono, com recurso a abordagem de cenários e à sua combinação com ferramentas SIG. Os dados obtidos mostram que os cenários de intervenção no cenário Alto apresentam resultados que compravam a eficiência e a eficácia na implementação de políticas na produção dos serviços de ecossistemas, com resultados de 8%, situando-se, assim, acima daquilo que é produzido atualmente. Já o cenário Baixo indica que uma implementação não tão eficaz conduzem a resultados de 1%. Por sua vez, uma análise corrente mostra que os impactos das políticas em vigor, numa perspetiva futura, poderiam conduzir a um incremento de 5% na produção dos serviços e ecossistema. Desta forma, é possível concluir que, mesmo no pior cenário, as implementações de políticas criam condições mais apropriadas do que as políticas em vigor no desempenho dos serviços de ecossistema, particularmente no que diz respeito ao sequestro e armazenamento de carbono.

Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) occurs as a consequence of both natural and human activities, causing impacts on biophysical and agricultural resources. In enlarged urban regions, the major changes are those that occur from agriculture to urban uses. Urban uses compete with rural ones due among others, to population growth and housing demand. This competition and the rapid nature of change can lead to fragmented and scattered land use development generating new challenges, for example, concerning food security, soil and biodiversity preservation, among others. Landowners play a key role in LUCC. In peri-urban contexts, three interrelated key actors are pre-eminent in LUCC complex process: 1) investors or developers, who are waiting to take advantage of urban development to obtain the highest profit margin. They rely on population growth, housing demand and spatial planning strategies; 2) farmers, who are affected by urban development and intend to capitalise on their investment, or farmers who own property for amenity and lifestyle values; 3) and at a broader scale, land use planners/ decision-makers. Farmers’ participation in the real estate market as buyers, sellers or developers and in the land renting market has major implications for LUCC because they have the capacity for financial investment and to control future agricultural land use. Several studies have analysed farmer decision-making processes in peri-urban regions. These studies identified agricultural areas as the most vulnerable to changes, and where farmers are presented with the choice of maintaining their agricultural activities and maximising the production potential of their crops or selling their farmland to land investors. Also, some evaluate the behavioural response of peri-urban farmers to urban development, and income from agricultural production, agritourism, and off-farm employment. Uncertainty about future land profits is a major motivator for decisions to transform farmland into urban development. Thus, LUCC occurs when the value of expected urban development rents exceeds the value of agricultural ones. Some studies have considered two main approaches in analysing farmer decisions: how drivers influence farmer’s decisions; and how their decisions influence LUCC. To analyse farmers’ decisions is to acknowledge the present and future trends and their potential spatial impacts. Simulation models, using cellular automata (CA), artificial neural networks (ANN) or agent-based systems (ABM) are commonly used. This PhD research aims to propose a model to understand the agricultural land-use change in a peri-urban context. We seek to understand how human drivers (e.g., demographic, economic, planning) and biophysical drivers can affect farmer’s intentions regarding the future agricultural land and model those intentions. This study presents an exploratory analysis aimed at understanding the complex dynamics of LUCC based on farmers’ intentions when they are faced with four scenarios with the time horizon of 2025: the A0 scenario – based on current demographic, social and economic trends and investigating what happens if conditions are maintained (BAU); the A1 scenario – based on a regional food security; the A2 scenario – based on climate change; and the B0 scenario – based on farming under urban pressure, and investigating what happens if people start to move to rural areas. These scenarios were selected because of the early urbanisation of the study area, as a consequence of economic, social and demographic development; and because of the interest in preserving and maintaining agriculture as an essential resource. Also, Torres Vedras represents one of the leading suppliers of agricultural goods (mainly fresh fruits, vegetables, and wine) in Portugal. To model LUCC a CA-Markov, an ANN-multilayer perceptron, and an ABM approach were applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on farmers’ intentions in different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the most significant drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in the forest and semi-natural areas in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognised in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, statistical analysis to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements and a participatory workshop with local stakeholders to validate the achieved results were applied. These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in ‘what if’ scenarios, allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future.

Doctoral thesis abstract Assessment of climate change impacts on selected ecosystem services in the Czech Republic: Application of land use scenarios MSc Eliška Lorencová Climate and land use change are recognized as the greatest global environmental problems. Both considerably impact delivery of crucial ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, water flow regulation, erosion control, and food and fibre production. By combining future projections of ALARM scenarios (for years 2020, 2050 and 2080) with modelling of ecosystem services, the study aims to evaluate climate change impact on selected ecosystem services (carbon storage and sequestration, erosion control and sediment retention) in the Czech Republic. This study provides quantitative as well as spatially explicit analysis of the impacts on selected ecosystem services in the Czech Republic. Performed ecosystem service assessment indicates that spatial distribution of provision of ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and sequestration, sediment retention reflects the projected future land use changes. In case of carbon sequestration, SEDG scenario shows the lowest carbon sequestration rates accounting for 37,029.6 Gg C within the period 2000-2080. Stable vegetation cover is one of the factors that play important role in amount of sediment...