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Academic literature on the topic 'Land Use Scenario'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 13 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Land Use Scenario"

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Gregor, Brian. "Land Use Scenario DevelopeR." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2003, no. 1 (January 2007): 93–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2003-12.

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HAMILTON, CHRISTOPHER M., WAYNE E. THOGMARTIN, VOLKER C. RADELOFF, ANDREW J. PLANTINGA, PATRICIA J. HEGLUND, SEBASTIAN MARTINUZZI, and ANNA M. PIDGEON. "Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change." Environmental Conservation 42, no. 1 (May 22, 2014): 12–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892914000174.

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SUMMARYLand-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.
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Ciaian, P. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 53, No. 12 (January 7, 2008): 565–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/900-agricecon.

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This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.
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Lacher, Iara, Thomas Akre, William J. McShea, Marissa McBride, Jonathan R. Thompson, and Craig Fergus. "Engaging Regional Stakeholders in Scenario Planning for the Long-Term Preservation of Ecosystem Services in Northwestern Virginia." Case Studies in the Environment 3, no. 1 (December 31, 2019): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/cse.2018.001180.

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This case study describes the application of a framework for developing stakeholder-driven scenarios of the future. The purpose of these scenarios is to inform land use planning toward the protection of ecosystems and derivable ecosystem services in Northwestern Virginia. We held two scenario development workshops with regional experts in conservation, agriculture, land use planning, policy, and economic development to create scenarios of land use in the northern Piedmont and northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. We structured the workshops around a framework that guided stakeholders through several steps eventually resulting in four unique scenarios describing the region in 50 years. Scenario narratives were defined by the intersection of highly influential and uncertain drivers of change relevant to land use planning and ecosystem services. Participants from the northern Shenandoah Valley region selected population growth and climate change adaptation as their scenario defining drivers, while participants from the northern Piedmont region selected planning strategy and climate change impact as their scenario defining drivers. Participants fleshed out scenarios into descriptive narratives that incorporated qualitative and quantitative measures of change. Details from the scenario narratives informed land use change models to further quantify tradeoffs between land use planning decisions and ecosystem services. Individuals interested in using scenario planning to guide research efforts, conservation, or land use planning, or even to broaden perspectives on how to view the future, will find value in this case study.
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Zhan, Jinyan, Feng Wu, Chenchen Shi, Fan Zhang, and Zhihui Li. "Scenario Analyses of Land Use Conversion in the North China Plain: An Econometric Approach." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/592121.

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Scenario analysis and dynamic prediction of land use structure which involve many driving factors are helpful to investigate the mechanism of land use changes and even to optimize land use allocation for sustainable development. In this study, land use structure changes during 1988–2010 in North China Plain were discerned and the effects of various natural and socioeconomic driving factors on land use structure changes were quantitatively analyzed based on an econometric model. The key drivers of land use structure changes in the model are county-level net returns of land resource. In this research, we modified the net returns of each land use type for three scenarios, including business as usual (BAU) scenario, rapid economic growth (REG) scenario, and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. The simulation results showed that, under different scenarios, future land use structures were different due to the competition among various land use types. The land use structure changes in North China Plain in the 40-year future will experience a transfer from cultivated land to built-up area, an increase of forestry, and decrease of grassland. The research will provide some significant references for land use management and planning in the study area.
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Jiang, Honglei, Xia Xu, Mengxi Guan, Lingfei Wang, Yongmei Huang, and Yinghui Liu. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China." Sustainability 11, no. 13 (July 2, 2019): 3627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11133627.

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Land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have been affected by ecological processes as well as socioeconomic and human activities, resulting in several environmental problems. The study of the human–environment system combined with land use/land cover dynamics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We aimed to provide an integrated model that couples land use, socioeconomic influences, and ecosystem processes to explore the future dynamics of land use under two scenarios in China. Under Scenario A, the yield of grain continues to increase, and under Scenario B, the yield of grain remains constant. This study created a LULCC model by integrating a simple global socioeconomic model, a Terrestrial ecosystem simulator (TESim), and a land use allocation model. The results were analyzed by comparing spatiotemporal differences under predicted land use conditions in the two alternative scenarios. The simulation results showed patterns that varied between the two scenarios. In Scenario A, grassland will expand in the future and a large reduction in cropland will be observed. In Scenario B, the augmented expansion of cropland and a drastic shrinkage of forest area will be the main land use conversion features. Scenario A is more promising because more land is preserved for ecological restoration and urbanization, which is in line with China’s Grain for Green Program. Economic development should be based on ecological protection. The results are expected to add insight to sustainable land use development and regional natural resource management in China.
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Yuan, Yongwei, Tao Zhao, Weimin Wang, Shaohui Chen, and Feng Wu. "Projection of the Spatially Explicit Land Use/Cover Changes in China, 2010–2100." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/908307.

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Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change. This study predicted the future structure of land use/cover on the basis of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and an econometric model with the socioeconomic factors as the driving forces. The future spatial pattern of land use/cover in China was simulated with the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) under the Business as Usual scenario, Rapid Economic Growth scenario and Cooperate Environmental Sustainability scenario. The simulation results showed that the land use/land cover in China will change continually due to the human activities and climate change, and the spatial pattern of land use/cover will also change as time goes by. Besides, the spatial pattern of land cover in China under the three scenarios is consistent on the whole, but with some regional differences. Built-up area will increase rapidly under the three scenarios, while most land cover types will show a decreasing trend to different degrees under different scenarios. The simulation results can provide an underlying land surface data and reference to the methodology research on the prediction of LUCC.
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Hoque, Muhammad Ziaul, Shenghui Cui, Imranul Islam, Lilai Xu, and Jianxiong Tang. "Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh." Sustainability 12, no. 5 (March 9, 2020): 2112. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12052112.

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Assessing the effects of different land use scenarios on subsequent changes in ecosystem service has great implications for sustainable land management. Here, we designed four land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, such as business-as-usual development (BAUD), economic development priority (EDP), ecological protection priority (EPP), and afforestation development priority (ADP), through a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, and their effects on ecosystem service values (ESVs) were predicted, using historical LULC maps and ESV coefficients of the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh. Findings revealed that agricultural and mangrove forest lands experienced the greatest decreases, while rural and urban settlement land had the greatest increases, leading to a total ESV decrease of US$105.34 million during 1988-2018. The scenario analysis indicated that ESV in 2038 would also decrease by US$41.37 million and US$16.38 million under the BAUD and EDP scenarios, respectively, while ESV will increase by US$60.61 million and US$130.95 million under the EPP and ADP scenarios, respectively. However, all the future land use scenarios will lead to 1.65%, 10.21%, 7.58%, and 6.75% gaps in total food requirements, respectively. Hence, from the perspective of maximizing ESVs and minimizing the trade-offs in food gaps, the ADP scenario could be the optimal land management policy for the studied landscape.
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Hamad, Rahel, Heiko Balzter, and Kamal Kolo. "Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios." Sustainability 10, no. 10 (September 25, 2018): 3421. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10103421.

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Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.
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Purwitaningsih, Santika, Adjie Pamungkas, Prima Tama Setyasa, Rahel Putri Pamungkas, Ahmad Rizky Alfian, and Shafira Aulia Rosyida Irawan. "Flood-reduction scenario based on land use in Kedurus river basin using SWAT hydrology model." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 7, no. 2 (November 1, 2020): 87–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.7.2.87-94.

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The rapid growth population phenomenon has causes excessive land demand for residential and economic activity. Moreover, the rapid urbanization also increases the contribution of land constrains. Land conversion from conservation to cultivation uses affects the surface runoff volume that leads to flooding. According to these problems, it is necessary to take steps to control flood in Kedurus Watershed. One of the proper urban development concept is the Water Sensitive City (WSC). The protection against flood in WSC can be accomplished with the land use arrangement that can reduces the surface runoff. The aim of this research is to determine the proper land use scenario to reduce floods in Kedurus Watershed. In order to reach this aim, the writer uses sensitivity analysis to identify the proper land use scenario to be applied in the watershed and SWAT to select the best scenario. The efforts to reduce flood through the land use scenario (scenario 2) could reduce the flood volume by 44,320.32 m3 or 8.11% of the total volume of flood in the area. The average reduction of flood volume in each sub basins is 12,92% and the highest number of reduction is 65,67% (sub basin 22).
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Land Use Scenario"

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Wright, Alexis Duncan. "Scenario planning and strategizing : an integrated approach." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2007. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11630/.

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This thesis presents an analysis of how one UK Regional Development Agency (RDA) used scenario planning in its construction of the region’s Regional Economic Strategy (RES). Strategists are broadly defined to include those within the RDA charged with developing and enacting a consultative strategy making process, the consultants engaged to provide advice and expertise to ensure workshops were conducted effectively, and, individuals representing stakeholder organizations that attended these workshops and responded to written consultations. Four scenarios depicting the region in the year 2020 were produced, which were subsequently presented as an evidence-base for the strategy process. A draft RES was created and issued for consultation. Previous RES development processes had been criticized for their lack of consultation, in this iteration strategists skilfully utilized a recognized strategy making practice as a means of responding to this. The scenario planning approach they adopted bore little resemblance to to the sanitised and context-free recipes commonly presented in the strategy textbooks. The research is a reflective, longitudinal study with data drawn from forty-six semi-structured interviews producing an authentic rich description that illustrates how actors enacted a strategizing process in the complex environment of the UK public sector. The analysis highlights how the strategists were influenced by sometimes conflicting desires and aspirations, and that to reconcile these and ensure deadlines were met inductive, interpretive and subjective acts were required. This analysis presents strategists as bricoleurs, with the documents and draft strategies produced being socially situated co-constructions emerging from negotiated, temporally-bound, power-laden and politically-infused interactions.
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Feuerherdt, Craig Nigel, and craigfeuerherdt@gmail com. "Towards Exploring Future Landscapes using Augmented Reality." RMIT University. Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, 2008. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20090316.153343.

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With increasing pressure to better manage the environment many government and private organisations are studying the relationships between social, economic and environmental factors to determine how they can best be optimised for increased sustainability. The analysis of such relationships are undertaken using computer-based Integrated Catchment Models (ICM). These models are capable of generating multiple scenarios depicting alternative land use alternatives at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, which present (potentially) better Triple-Bottom Line (TBL) outcomes than the prevailing situation. Dissemination of this data is (for the most part) reliant on traditional, static map products however, the ability of such products to display the complexity and temporal aspects is limited and ultimately undervalues both the knowledge incorporated in the models and the capacity of stakeholders to disseminate the complexities through other means. Geovisualization provides tools and methods for disseminating large volumes of spatial (and associated non-spatial) data. Virtual Environments (VE) have been utilised for various aspects of landscape planning for more than a decade. While such systems are capable of visualizing large volumes of data at ever-increasing levels of realism, they restrict the users ability to accurately perceive the (virtual) space. Augmented Reality (AR) is a visualization technique which allows users freedom to explore a physical space and have that space augmented with additional, spatially referenced information. A review of existing mobile AR systems forms the basis of this research. A theoretical mobile outdoor AR system using Common-Of-The-Shelf (COTS) hardware and open-source software is developed. The specific requirements for visualizing land use scenarios in a mobile AR system were derived using a usability engineering approach known as Scenario-Based Design (SBD). This determined the elements required in the user interfaces resulting in the development of a low-fidelity, computer-based prototype. The prototype user interfaces were evaluated using participants from two targeted stakeholder groups undertaking hypothetical use scenarios. Feedback from participants was collected using the cognitive walk-through technique and supplemented by evaluator observations of participants physical actions. Results from this research suggest that the prototype user interfaces did provide the necessary functionality for interacting with land use scenarios. While there were some concerns about the potential implementation of
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Mokadi, Elad. "Modeling the Future Impact of Cincinnati’s Proposed Streetcar on Urban Land Use Changes." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1314040415.

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Göpel, Jan [Verfasser]. "A scenario approach to modeling land-use changes and assessing associated environmental impacts in Southern Amazonia / Jan Göpel." Kassel : Universitätsbibliothek Kassel, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1174846798/34.

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Wirsig, Alexander. "Global change and regional agricultural land use impact estimates for the Upper Danube Basin based on scenario data from European studies." Frankfurt am Main ; New York, NY : Lang, 2009. http://d-nb.info/995048037/04.

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Javadinejad, Safieh. "Vulnerability of water resources to climate change and human impact : scenario analysis of the Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2016. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/7103/.

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Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of reducing precipitations and rising temperatures in the arid and semi-arid of the Middle-East region (such as Iran) aggravate this condition during the last few decades. A proper water planning needs productive Integrated Water Resource Management models that can respond these complicated troubles. The aim of this study was to develop a structure for applicable and efficient risk control of water supplies through drought. This management structure combines hydrological, socio-economic and water organization models. The methodology has three factors: 1) the statistical possessions of drought characterisation and drought trend in terms of space-time were examined and thresholds of drought warning are evaluated to assist as drivers for control programmes. 2) A water-planning model was applied to combine water accessibility and demand and examine the reliability of the water system to deliver the water to demand sites during the normal and drought episodes. 3) The model was used to estimates the future impacts of climate alteration, through driving them with simulations from an ensemble of statically downscaled CMIP5 model for the severest scenario in the 21st century. Moreover, some potential management plans that decrease the future hazard of water shortage were evaluated. The methods were tested in a case study in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Iran. The results indicated the important roles of both meteorological and anthropogenic elements on occurrence of drought and water shortages for past and future time.
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Eriksson, Hägg Hanna. "Nitrogen land-sea fluxes in the Baltic Sea catchment : Empirical relationships and budgets." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM), 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-32493.

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In this thesis empirical relationships and modeling tools are used to describe the relationship between human activities and meso- and large scale riverine N fluxes from land to sea. On a large scale Paper I showed that by only having knowledge about human population size and runoff one can estimate the riverine export of DIN (r2= 0.76). In Paper II we included two other important anthropogenic N inputs, i.e. atmospheric deposition and primary emission (PE) from animals. In most of the catchments the PE from animals were larger than the PE from humans. Hence, development of livestock is important and increased animal protein consumption by humans might increase the riverine N export. Scenario analysis (Paper II) show that climate change is expected to both decrease and increase the riverine N export depending on which part of the catchment is modeled. In the southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea catchment there is large potential for N reductions from point sources (Papers III & V). The diffuse sources are more difficult to decrease and a reduction of mineral fertilizer does not always lead to reduced N loadings because the agricultural systems can buffer even a slight surplus (Paper III). There is inertia in the catchments which can be seen in for example in the northern part of the catchment. Here atmospheric N deposition is almost as high as in the southern part but the nitrogen flux from these rivers is not elevated. These northern river catchments have N exports of the same magnitude as the natural background (Paper IV), indicating that the atmospheric N deposition is retained in the system and probably taken up by N limited boreal forests. However, important reductions can be achieved in the agricultural sector by detailed management of the planted land and animal manure. The highest sensitivity is in catchments with high animal density and high specific discharge, primarily draining to Kattegat and Danish Straits (Paper II & IV).
At the time of doctoral dissertation the following publications were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript
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Mojica, Bonilla Ana I. "Multiple Scenario Interface for Visualizing Urban Structures: The Cases of the Salvadoran Cities of San Salvador and Santa Tecla." Ohio : Ohio University, 2009. http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd/view.cgi?ohiou1230049656.

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Kolbe, Elizabeth Leigh. "Visualizing and Quantifying a Normative Scenario for Agriculture in Northeast Ohio." The Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1366553296.

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Gerber, Stephan. "Anwendung von multifunktionaler Landschaftsbewertung und hydrologischer Modellierung zur Bewertung der Einflüsse einer geänderten Landnutzung auf den Wasserhaushalt im Mittelgebirge." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2009. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-24699.

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Der Landschaftswasserhaushalt stellt die Integrationsebene der Geokomponenten Klima, Boden und Landnutzung dar und unterliegt aktuell einer intensiven Forschungstätigkeit. Die charakteristische Ausprägung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes ist in der mitteleuropäischen Kulturlandschaft das Ergebnis einer von vielfältigen Triebkräften bestimmten komplexen Nutzung. Diese existierenden Nutzungsansprüche werden aber nicht gezielt zur Optimierung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes koordiniert, da die handelnden Akteure teils völlig gegensätzlichen Zielrichtungen verfolgen. Insgesamt gesehen bietet die Optimierung der nicht besiedelten Landfläche auf Grund ihrer großen Flächeninanspruchnahme die größten Potentiale der Beeinflussung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mit der hydrologischen Modellierung und der funktionalen Landschaftsbewertung zwei völlig unterschiedliche methodische Ansätze zur Analyse hydrologischer Prozesse im Landschaftswasserhaushalt genutzt, um die Reaktion des Wasserhaushaltes auf Landschaftsveränderungen zu untersuchen. Es wird am Beispiel eines Flusseinzugsgebietes im Erzgebirge gezeigt, inwieweit sich durch ein Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modell Änderungen im Wasserhaushalt von Landnutzungsszenarien aufzeigen lassen, die auf der Grundlage von Landschaftsbewertungsverfahren erstellt wurden. Es sollen also mittels hydrologischer Modellierung die qualitativen Resultate eines deutlich einfacher zu realisierenden Planungsverfahrens quantifiziert werden. Auf der Basis der bewerteten Landschaftsfunktionen Abflussregulationsfunktion, Wassererosionswiderstand, Ertragspotential und physikochemisches Filtervermögen des Bodens wurden durch multikriterielle Optimierung mit der Software LNOPT zwei sich unterscheidende Szenarien, ein eher realistisch angelegtes Szenario (Realszenario) und ein Szenario mit möglichst hoher Retentionswirkung (Szenario Abflussminimierung) entwickelt. Beide Szenarien sind an die Realität angelehnt und nicht fiktiv, wodurch sich starke Einschränkungen hinsichtlich der optimierbaren Fläche ergeben. So stehen nur 36,5 % der Gesamtfläche zur Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Verfügung wovon nur 12,5 % der Fläche durch den Optimierungsprozess in ihrer Nutzung umgewidmet wird. Der Wasserhaushalt der entwickelten Landnutzungsszenarien wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltssimulationsmodell WaSiM-ETH in zehn ausgewählten Teileinzugsgebieten modelliert. Die Gebietsanpassung erfolgte dabei an den Pegeln Lauenstein und Geising mit einem multi-response Ansatz, der auch Ergebnisse einer Ganglinienseparation und Vergleiche zu einer Arbeit im benachbarten Weißeritzeinzugsgebiet berücksichtigt. Im Ergebnis zeigte die Validierung eine gelungene Gebietsanpassung des Modells WaSiM-ETH mit geringen Schwächen im Winter und bei außergewöhnlichen Extremereignissen. Insgesamt zeigt sich in allen modellierten Teileinzugsgebieten ein Rückgang des Gesamtabflusses, allerdings in Größenordnungen, die sich räumlich sehr stark unterscheiden. Berechnet wurde dabei nur der Wasserhaushalt für das Szenario „Abflussminimierung“, da sich beide Szenarien in den hydrologisch ähnlichen Teileinzugsgebieten nur wenig unterscheiden. Die statistische Auswertung der Ergebnisse erfolgte mit Spearmans Rangkorrelations¬koeffizient und zeigte: • dass mit steigender Höhenlage die Möglichkeiten der Abflussminimierung durch Landnutzungsveränderungen abnehmen. Im Indikator Höhenlage spiegeln sich dabei mehrere Parameter wider, welche die sich mit der Höhe wandelnden Klima-, Boden- und Reliefbedingungen ausdrücken. • dass mögliche Abflussminderungen mit dem Ackeranteil eines Einzugsgebietes positiv signifikant korreliert sind. Die Abflussminderungspotentiale steigen also mit steigendem Ackeranteil an. • dass die absolute Niederschlagsmenge keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Abflussminderung hat, vielmehr ist die jährliche Niederschlagsverteilung bedeutsam für die Möglichkeiten des Wasserrückhaltes in der Fläche. Als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Anwendung von LNOPT im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen sind die Berücksichtigung beziehungsweise Bearbeitung folgender Punkte: • Ermittlung der hydrologischen Senkenpotentiale zu Beginn des Planungsprozesses um sich auf Gebiete mit hohem hydrologischen Senkenpotential zu konzentrieren, • Planung von Landnutzungsveränderungen hinsichtlich Nutzungstyp, Nutzungsart oder Nutzungsintensität anhand von Bewertungsverfahren, welche die hydrologischen Differenzen gut widerspiegeln, • Einbeziehung der handelnden Akteure in den Planungsprozess um die möglichst vollständige Umsetzung der geplanten Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass im Mittelgebirgsraum Abflussminderungspotentiale im Zuge von Landnutzungsveränderungen vorhanden sind, diese aber regional sehr stark differenziert ausgeprägt sind. Methodisch konnte demonstriert werden, dass das eingesetzte Verfahren der multikriteriellen Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Planungsunterstützung im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen genutzt werden kann, wenn die genannten Rahmenbedingungen beachtet werden
The hydrological balance of a landscape integrates different geocomponents such as climate, soil and land use and is an object of intensive research activities. The specific characteristic of the hydrological balance of a landscape shows the result of a complex utilisation system which is caused by manifold driving forces. Due to different strategic objectives of thestakeholders, their demands are contrasting and therefore it is very difficult to coordinate these demands with respect to influencing the hydrological balance of a landscape. Changes of land use in non-settled areas have the highest potential of modifying the hydrological balance of a landscape due to the large extent of affected area. In this thesis two different methodical approaches are used to analyse the hydrological processes in the water balance of a landscape in order to investigate the effects of land use changes on the hydrological balance of a landscape. The applied methods are hydrological modelling and functional landscape assessment. Hydrological modelling quantifies the water balance of scenarios made by a much easier to realise planning method on the basis of a functional landscape assessment. Land use scenarios on the basis of a functional landscape assessment can be build through a multi-criteria optimisation process using the software LNOPT (“land use op-timisation”). By using this method, the hydrological balance of a landscape and the specific local conditions are described by the following landscape functions: runoff regulation, resistance against water erosion, biotic yield potential and physical-chemical cleaning potential of soils. On the basis of the assessment of these landscape functions, two land use scenarios were developed using the method of multi-criteria optimisation, namely, a more realistic scenario and one with the highest possible water retention potential. Even though both scenarios are different in their closeness to reality, they are both inspired by reality and not just fictitious. Due to different restrictions only 36.5 % of the entire catchment area could be used in the optimisation process. In the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential only 12.5 % of the land use was changed and in the more realistic scenario the changes were slightly smaller. The water balance simulation model WaSiM-ETH is well suited to quantify changes in the hydrological balance in the context of land-use changes at the meso-scale. The adaptations to the catchment area characteristics were done by the calibration on the gauges Lauenstein and Geising in a multi response approach considering results of a hydrograph curve separation and the results of a research in the neighbouring Weisseritz catchment. The validation shows a successful adaptation to the regional catchment area characteristics with minor shortcomings in winter and by extraordinary high precipitation events. In the whole investigated area possible changes of the hydrological balance are rather negligible due to only small land use changes. But in 10 selected subcatchments the hydrological modelling shows a decrease of discharge in the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential. The dimensions of the decrease in the discharge are regionally very different due to varying spatial characteristics. These differences get systemised through a statistical analysis using the Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient. The following correlations were found: • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge through land use modification are getting smaller with an increase in altitude. The complex indicator “altitude” contains different parameters which reflect the shifting of climatic, soil and relief conditions with changing altitude. • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge are getting higher with the percentage of arable land in the subcatchments. • The amount of precipitation has no direct influence of the possible decrease in discharge in the subcatchments. The influence of the annual variation of precipitation is larger than the absolute annual amount of precipitation. For a successful application of LNOPT for the development of land use scenarios with a hydrologic context the following requirements have to be considered: • ahead of the planning process, pedological and geological potentials of the investigated area in terms of a decrease in discharge should be investigated • landscape functions which show hydrological differences in terms of land use types, the kind and the intensity of land use should be used • local steak holders should be integrated in the planning process to ensure the complete implementation of the planned measures as much as possible. In this thesis it could be shown that mountainous regions have a potential for a decrease in discharge caused by a land use change, but with substantial regional variations. The evaluation of the used methods demonstrated that the multi-criteria optimisation software LNOPT is well suited to support hydrological related planning processes if conditions mentioned above are considered
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Books on the topic "Land Use Scenario"

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Symposium "Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment" (1994 Wageningen, Netherlands). Scenario studies for the rural environment: Selected and edited proceedings of the Symposium "Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment," Wageningen, the Netherlands, 12-15 September 1994. Dordrecht: Boston, 1995.

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Venkateswarlu, J. Rainfed agriculture in India: Research and development scenario. New Delhi: Directorate of Information and Publications of Agriculture, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 2003.

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1951-, Barendregt Aat, and Gilbert Alison J, eds. Spatial ecological-economic analysis for wetland management: Modelling and scenario evaluation of land use. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.

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Canada. Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Round Table. Lands for Life: Preliminary land use scenarios. Ottawa: Queen's Printer for Ontario, 1998.

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Gammage, Grady. The treasure of the Superstitions: Scenarios for the future of Superstition Vistas : Arizona's premier state trust land in the southeast valley. Tempe, Ariz: Morrison Institute for Public Policy, School of Public Affairs, College of Public Programs, Arizona State University, 2006.

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Prieler, Sylvia. Three scenarios for land-use change: A case study in Central Europe. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1998.

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Bouwman, A. F. Long-term scenarios of livestock-crop-land use interactions in developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1997.

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Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (Netherlands) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations., eds. Long-term scenarios of livestock-crop-land use interactions in developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1997.

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Bouwman, A. F. Long-term scenarios of livestock-crop-land use interactions in developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1997.

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Bouwman, A. F. Long-term scenarios of livestock-crop-land use interactions in developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1997.

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Book chapters on the topic "Land Use Scenario"

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Chu, Duo. "Land-Use Change Scenario." In Remote Sensing of Land Use and Land Cover in Mountain Region, 117–32. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7580-4_6.

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Crabb, Grace, and Adam Thorogood. "Land Use Scenario 2050." In Living in a Low-Carbon Society in 2050, 129–48. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137264893_9.

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Scholten, Henk J., Paul Misdorp, and Martin Beek. "Land-use trends in Europe: simulation, presentation and scenario evaluation of future options." In Multicriteria Analysis for Land-Use Management, 335–51. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9058-7_18.

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Ahamer, Gilbert. "Annex to Case ⑥: A Scenario Generator for Global Land-Use Change Scenarios." In Mapping Global Dynamics, 311–42. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9_22.

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Hellmann, Fritz A., and Hans de Moel. "Future Land Use Patterns in European River Basins: Scenario Trends in Urbanization, Agriculture and Land Use." In The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, 209–22. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38598-8_7.

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Lavalle, Carlo, Filipe Batista e Silva, Claudia Baranzelli, Chris Jacobs-Crisioni, Ine Vandecasteele, Ana Luisa Barbosa, Joachim Maes, et al. "Chapter 24 Land Use and Scenario Modeling for Integrated Sustainability Assessment." In European Landscape Dynamics, 237–62. 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742: CRC Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315372860-25.

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Dhir, R. P. "Thar Desert: Its Land Management, Livelihoods and Prospects in a Global Warming Scenario." In Climate Variability Impacts on Land Use and Livelihoods in Drylands, 131–47. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56681-8_7.

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Scholten, Henk J., Rob van de Velde, Piet Rietveld, and Maarten Hilferink. "Spatial Information Infrastructure for Scenario Planning: The Development of a Land Use Planner for Holland." In Geographical Information and Planning, 112–34. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03954-0_6.

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Pankaj, P. K., Mahesh K. Gaur, G. Nirmala, V. Maruthi, Pushpanjali, Josily Samuel, and K. S. Reddy. "Diversification and Land Use Management Practices for Food and Nutritional Security Under the Climate Change Scenario in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of India." In Food Security and Land Use Change under Conditions of Climatic Variability, 281–309. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36762-6_15.

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Ahmadpour, Amir, and Mohamad Reza Shahraki. "Land-Use Change Scenarios." In Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, 1–9. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69626-3_31-1.

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Conference papers on the topic "Land Use Scenario"

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Guo, Binbin, Jing Zhang, Linrui Song, and Huili Gong. "Hydrologic Scenario Simulation and Related Techniques Forecasting Land Use/Land Cover Changes." In 2012 2nd International Conference on Remote Sensing, Environment and Transportation Engineering (RSETE). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/rsete.2012.6260589.

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Cai, Dong, Manchun Li, Zhenjie Chen, Xiaohui Jiang, and Yanming Chen. "Land use scenario simulation based on multi-agent system." In 2011 19th International Conference on Geoinformatics. IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/geoinformatics.2011.5980686.

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Hu, Chen-Xia, and Gang Lian. "Scenario analysis of land use change and ecological sustainability based on GIS." In 2009 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics (ICMLC). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icmlc.2009.5212351.

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Aik, Lim Eng, and Tan Wee Choon. "Developing land use scenario dynamics using Cellular Automata and agent integrated model." In 2011 IEEE Symposium on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ISIEA 2011). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isiea.2011.6108768.

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Jin, Jie, Yue Zhou, and Hong Zhang. "Land Use Patterns under Ecological and Intensive Constraints--Scenario Simulation Based on SLEUTH." In 2016 International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Simulation and Modelling. Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/amsm-16.2016.64.

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Valujeva, Kristine, Aleksejs Nipers, Ainars Lupikis, Jovita Pilecka, and Rogier P. O. Schulte. "Assessment of land use change scenario to increase primary productivity function at local scale." In Research for Rural Development 2019 : annual 25th International scientific conference proceedings. Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.22616/rrd.25.2019.027.

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Milano, Alan E., Peter D. Suson, Stephanie Mae B. Salcedo, Jennifer G. Blasco, and Teresa T. Ignacio. "Land cover/use scenario building and its impact on runoff process inside the Iligan river basin." In SPIE Remote Sensing, edited by Christopher M. U. Neale and Antonino Maltese. SPIE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2241270.

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Li, Xue, Yongxue Liu, and Xingzi Fu. "Research on scenario simulation of land-use planning based on CA model: A case study in Kunming metropolitan area." In Geoinformatics 2007, edited by Peng Gong and Yongxue Liu. SPIE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.764622.

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Facchini, Bruno, Lorenzo Tarchi, and Pier Francesco Piccardi. "Characterization of Commercially Available Turbochargers for Possible Application in the UPS System Scenario." In ASME Turbo Expo 2006: Power for Land, Sea, and Air. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2006-90422.

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Standard uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems for radio base stations use lead acid batteries stacks as energy storage device; the fairly short life cycle of such systems, not more than 3 years, together with the presence of highly polluting components make it costly in terms of money and environmental aspects. From these considerations originate the idea to develop an alternative UPS system based on compressed air storage able to replace the battery stacks and to satisfy more restrictive environmental requirements. This work is developed within the European project PNEUMA (PNEumatic Uninterruptible Machine - LIFE 04 ENV/IT/00595) with the final aim to develop some UPS demonstrators for an on site experimentation. In this paper it is described the way followed to set up an air turboalternator with a maximum power of 10.0 kW. Starting from the selection of the turbine, we decided to extract it from an ICE turbocharger because its size and its low cost matches our requirements. First of all, an experimental survey has been realized to test two turbines of different size: expansion ratio, corrected mass flow and efficiency have been measured varying inlet pressure and temperature. This activity led us to select the smaller turbine to develop the first pilot demonstrator; the turbine has been coupled to an high speed alternator (max. 60’000 rpm) by means of an elastic coupling. Some shakedown testing have been performed to verify the mechanical resistance and to test the power conversion system and the control system.
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Zaimi, Klodian, Fatos Hoxhaj, Sergio Fattorelli, and rancesca Ramazzina. "CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ULZA DAM LIFESPAN." In GEOLINKS International Conference. SAIMA Consult Ltd, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32008/geolinks2020/b1/v2/03.

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Ulza Dam is one of the oldest hydropower infrastructures in Albania. The water capacity of the reservoir has been reduced because of the accumulation of the sediments coming from Mat River. The bathymetric measurements and river sediment transport are used for quantifying the water storage change up to nowadays. Analyzing the future climate change impact in the sediment transport from the river is very important for understanding the Ulza Dam lifespan. In order to analyze the sediment regime in the future, the climate change projection from the EURO-CORDEX has been downscaled for Mat River catchment and used as input for the HEC-HMS hydrological model considering also the erosion and sediment module. The hydrological model was also calibrated with the MUSLE parameters, and it reproduces the average value of the total sediment transport. The analysis of climate change impact on erosion and sediment transported at the reservoirs was done considering the mean annual load for the different 30-year simulated periods related to values from the historical period 1981-2010. Considering the impacts of climate change, the mean annual sediment siltation could increase for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Over this hypothesis, the remaining lifespan can be reduced drastically in both scenarios. Different land-use scenarios were analyzed in order to evaluate the impact of erosion and, because the current land use scenario doesn’t produce any impact on the hydrological process, but only effects at a small scale, two hypothetical scenarios were defined at large scale and applied for Mat River catchment. Extensive management of land use and reforestation produce a positive effect on the hydrological process and reducing the erosion rate. The change of land use significantly counteracts the negative effects of climate change by 15% and a 24% reduction in the case of these land-use scenarios.
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Reports on the topic "Land Use Scenario"

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Vittorio, Alan, and Kate Calvin. Using machine learning to improve land use/cover characterization and projection for scenario-based global modeling. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1769796.

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Brown, Daniel, Alison Delgado, Richard Moss, and Fernando Sedano. Need and Options for Subnational Scale Land-Use and Land-Cover Scenarios for the United States. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/j0nc5z40.

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Wear, David N. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/srs-gtr-141.

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Wear, David N. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/srs-gtr-141.

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Banerjee, Onil, Martin Cicowiez, Marcia Macedo, Žiga Malek, Peter H. Verburg, Sean Goodwin, Renato Vargas, et al. An Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003385.

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The Amazon biome, despite its resilience, is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer possible. This is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. In this paper, we develop scenarios that represent movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of these scenarios using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with high resolution spatial land use land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEMESM). This papers main contributions are developing: (i) a framework for evaluating strategies to avert an Amazon tipping point based on their relative costs, benefits and trade-offs, and; (ii) a first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of movement towards an Amazon tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. We find that a conservative estimate of the cumulative regional cost through 2050 of an Amazon tipping point would be US$256.6 billion in Gross Domestic Product. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in climate-adapted agriculture, and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth. From a public investment perspective, the returns to implementing strategies for averting a tipping point would be US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can pave the way for evidence-based approaches to support policy action focusing on the design of regional strategies for the Amazon biome and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable their implementation.
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Melby, Jeffrey, Thomas Massey, Fatima Diop, Himangshu Das, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Victor Gonzalez, Mary Bryant, et al. Coastal Texas Protection and Restoration Feasibility Study : Coastal Texas flood risk assessment : hydrodynamic response and beach morphology. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/41051.

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The US Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District, is executing the Coastal Texas Protection and Restoration Feasibility Study coastal storm risk management (CSRM) project for the region. The project is currently in the feasibility phase. The primary goal is to develop CSRM measures that maximize national net economic development benefits. This report documents the coastal storm water level and wave hazard, including sea level rise, for a variety of flood risk management alternatives. Four beach restoration alternatives for Galveston Island and Bolivar peninsula were evaluated. Suites of synthetic tropical and historical non-tropical storms were developed and modeled. The CSTORM coupled surge-and-wave modeling system was used to accurately characterize storm circulation, water level, and wave hazards using new model meshes developed from high-resolution land and sub-aqueous surveys for with- and without-project scenarios. Beach morphology stochastic response was modeled with a Monte Carlo life-cycle simulation approach using the CSHORE morphological evolution numerical model embedded in the StormSim stochastic modeling system. Morphological and hydrodynamic response were primarily characterized with probability distributions of the number of rehabilitations and overflow.
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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.

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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/416909.

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