Journal articles: 'Land application risk assessment'

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Gerba, Charles P., Nohelia Castro-del Campo, John P. Brooks, and Ian L. Pepper. "Exposure and risk assessment of Salmonella in recycled residuals." Water Science and Technology 57, no. 7 (April 1, 2008): 1061–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2008.235.

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The potential health effects of Salmonella found in wastewater residuals is dependent on the exposure of individuals to the organism. This paper provides a risk assessment for human infection from Salmonella due to direct contact with Class B biosolids, and from contact with Class A biosolids following regrowth of Salmonella. In addition, a risk assessment is provided for infection via airborne transport of bioaerosols from Class B biosolids and biosolids in which regrowth had occurred, to off-site communities. Results of the risk characterization imply that the risk of human infection from direct contact with Class B land applied residuals and subsequent ingestion is low. In contrast, the risk from direct contact with Class A residuals following regrowth is greater. Risks from airborne transport of Salmonella via bioaerosols away from a Class B land application site are also low. However, once again the risk from aerosols resulting from biosolids in which regrowth had occurred was greater. Based on these analyses, we conclude that it is highly unlikely that Salmonella infections will occur from land applied Class A or B residuals. However, risks become significant if Class A biosolids are stored anaerobically i.e. saturated, prior to land application.

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Galada, Heather C., Patrick L. Gurian, Mira S. Olson, Jingjie Teng, Arun Kumar, Michael Wardell, Sara Eggers, and Elizabeth Casman. "Development of Failure Scenarios for Biosolids Land Application Risk Assessment." Water Environment Research 85, no. 2 (February 1, 2013): 141–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2175/106143012x13373575831079.

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Zhu, Qingjie, Youpo Su, and Desheng Dash Wu. "Risk assessment of land-use suitability and application to Tangshan City." International Journal of Environment and Pollution 42, no. 4 (2010): 330. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijep.2010.035348.

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Lytton, L., S. Howe, R. Sage, and P. Greenaway. "Groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology." Water Science and Technology 47, no. 9 (May 1, 2003): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2003.0478.

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A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment considers the three components of the pollution transport model: source - pathway - receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that forms the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

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WALKER, P. L., S. MUNRO, C. L. HAWKINGS, and F. E. SHEPHERD. "The Application of Risk Assessment to Contaminated Land: The British Gas Experience." Water and Environment Journal 8, no. 6 (December 1994): 607–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.1994.tb01157.x.

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Park, Kiyong, and Man-Hyung Lee. "The Development and Application of the Urban Flood Risk Assessment Model for Reflecting upon Urban Planning Elements." Water 11, no. 5 (May 1, 2019): 920. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11050920.

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As a city develops and expands, it is likely confronted with a variety of environmental problems. Although the impact of climate change on people has continuously increased in the past, great numbers of natural disasters in urban areas have become varied in terms of form. Among these urban disasters, urban flooding is the most frequent type, and this study focuses on urban flooding. In cities, the population and major facilities are concentrated, and to examine flooding issues in these urban areas, different levels of flooding risk are classified on 100 m × 100 m geographic grids to maximize the spatial efficiency during the flooding events and to minimize the following flooding damage. In this analysis, vulnerability and exposure tests are adopted to analyze urban flooding risks. The first method is based on land-use planning, and the building-to-land ratio. Using fuzzy approaches, the tests focus on risks. However, the latter method using the HEC-Ras model examines factors such as topology and precipitation volume. By mapping the classification of land-use and flooding, the risk of urban flooding is evaluated by grade-scales: green, yellow, orange, and red zones. There are two key findings and theoretical contributions of this study. First, the areas with a high flood risk are mainly restricted to central commercial areas where the main urban functions are concentrated. Additionally, the development density and urbanization are relatively high in these areas, in addition to the old center of urban areas. In the case of Changwon City, Euichang-gu and Seongsan-gu have increased the flood risk because of the high property value of commercial areas and high building density in these regions. Thus, land-use planning of these districts should be designed to reflect upon the different levels of flood risks, in addition to the preparation of anti-disaster facilities to mitigate flood damages in high flood risk areas. Urban flood risk analysis for individual land use districts would facilitate urban planners and managers to prioritize the areas with a high flood risk and to prepare responding preventive measures for more efficient flood management.

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O'Connor, George A., Robert B. Brobst, Rufus L. Chaney, Ron L. Kincaid, Lee R. McDowell, Gary M. Pierzynski, Alan Rubin, and Gary G. Van Riper. "A Modified Risk Assessment to Establish Molybdenum Standards for Land Application of Biosolids." Journal of Environmental Quality 30, no. 5 (September 2001): 1490–507. http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/jeq2001.3051490x.

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Yakamercan, Elif, Akif Ari, and Ahmet Aygün. "Land application of municipal sewage sludge: Human health risk assessment of heavy metals." Journal of Cleaner Production 319 (October 2021): 128568. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128568.

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Albano, Raffaele, Caterina Samela, Iulia Crăciun, Salvatore Manfreda, Jan Adamowski, Aurelia Sole, Åke Sivertun, and Alexandru Ozunu. "Large Scale Flood Risk Mapping in Data Scarce Environments: An Application for Romania." Water 12, no. 6 (June 26, 2020): 1834. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12061834.

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Large-scale flood risk assessment is essential in supporting national and global policies, emergency operations and land-use management. The present study proposes a cost-efficient method for the large-scale mapping of direct economic flood damage in data-scarce environments. The proposed framework consists of three main stages: (i) deriving a water depth map through a geomorphic method based on a supervised linear binary classification; (ii) generating an exposure land-use map developed from multi-spectral Landsat 8 satellite images using a machine-learning classification algorithm; and (iii) performing a flood damage assessment using a GIS tool, based on the vulnerability (depth–damage) curves method. The proposed integrated method was applied over the entire country of Romania (including minor order basins) for a 100-year return time at 30-m resolution. The results showed how the description of flood risk may especially benefit from the ability of the proposed cost-efficient model to carry out large-scale analyses in data-scarce environments. This approach may help in performing and updating risk assessments and management, taking into account the temporal and spatial changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

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Dunn, S. M., A. Lilly, J. DeGroote, and A. J. A. Vinten. "Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland: II. Hydrological transport and model testing." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 8, no. 2 (April 30, 2004): 205–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-205-2004.

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Abstract. The amount and concentration of N in catchment runoff is strongly controlled by a number of hydrological influences, such as leaching rates and the rate of transport of N from the land to surface water bodies. This paper describes how the principal hydrological controls at a catchment scale have been represented within the Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland (NIRAMS); it demonstrates their influence through application of the model to eight Scottish catchments, contrasting in terms of their land use, climate and topography. Calculation of N leaching rates, described in the preceding paper (Dunn et al., 2004), is based on soil water content determined by application of a weekly water balance model. This model uses national scale datasets and has been developed and applied to the whole of Scotland using five years of historical meteorological data. A catchment scale transport model, constructed from a 50m digital elevation model, routes flows of N through the sub-surface and groundwater to the stream system. The results of the simulations carried out for eight different catchments demonstrate that the NIRAMS model is capable of predicting time-series of weekly stream flows and N concentrations, to an acceptable degree of accuracy. The model provides an appropriate framework for risk assessment applications requiring predictions in ungauged catchments and at a national scale. Analysis of the model behaviour shows that streamwater N concentrations are controlled both by the rate of supply of N from leaching as well as the rate of transport of N from the land to the water. Keywords: nitrogen, diffuse pollution, hydrology, model, transport, catchment

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Shvorak, Anatoliy, Myroslava Kulynych, Аlla Fatenok-Tkachuk, and Kateryna Melnyk. "The Normative Land Valuation Impact on Rural Development in Ukraine through the Prism of Taxation and Role of Auditing in its Determing." Modern Economics 23, no. 1 (October 27, 2020): 227–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.31521/modecon.v23(2020)-36.

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Abstract. The article examines the impact of the new regulatory assessment of agricultural land on the amount of land tax and rent. The comparative analysis with the preliminary normative estimation is resulted. One of the mechanisms for confirming or refuting the availability of information of qualitative and quantitative characteristics, which are determined by the circumstances and results of formalization and application of regulatory land valuation, is to provide its users with the results of audit tasks. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the impact of land valuation on the development of rural areas of Ukraine through the prism of taxation and the role of audit of its definition. Results. It is proved that the demand and supply in the market, the level of solvency of the population, conditions of sale, the nature of possible competition, the distribution of property rights to land, obligations and restrictions on land use, etc. are of great importance for market valuation of land. The introduction of a new normative monetary valuation of agricultural land will lead to the loss of the revenue base of budgets for certain territorial communities. Tax revenues to local government budgets will also decrease by a percentage reduction in the regulatory monetary assessment. The expediency, validity and effectiveness of the decisions of the subjects of state regulation on the implementation and updating of regulatory assessments of land resources can be assessed on the basis of the implementation of audit measures. Conclusions. We propose to apply a risk-oriented audit approach at the stage of determining the feasibility of regulatory assessments. We believe that the current neglect of the problem of risk has led to unpredictable consequences of the application of regulatory assessment of land resources. In the context of agricultural reform in Ukraine, the role of audit is determined by the information needs of different groups of information users both in relation to the functioning of the industry as a whole and in relation to the activities of individual enterprises. Keywords: agriculture, arable land, normative monetary valuation, land tax, agricultural lands, rent, audit.

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Martin, Nick. "Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources." Hydrology 8, no. 1 (February 25, 2021): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010038.

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Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

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Sharma, A., and H. Miyazaki. "MULTI-HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT IN URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT USING AHP." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W8 (August 22, 2019): 363–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w8-363-2019.

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Many cities across the world are exposed to more than one hazards. Focus on only the most prominent natural hazards, or the most recent event can be dangerous, as many potential threats to urban development are not assessed. Even when multiple hazards in a given area is assessed, there is a lot of confusion on how to utilize hazard information in making decisions for urban land-use planning. This study is aimed to develop a method to utilize hazard maps in urban land-use decision making. The study has identified numerous applications of GIS-based multi-criteria decision model (MCDM) for land-use suitability evaluation. It has then tried to integrate multiple hazard maps, a product of multi-hazard risk assessment, into the model to generate suitability maps for further development. The used parameters were correlated using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), one of the MCDM tool and incorporated into the GIS environment, with a comparison between the cases with- and without-hazard considerations. The application of the proposed method was tested for Madang Province, Papua New Guinea for four land-uses, i.e., residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural. The results of the model i.e., land-use suitability maps were spatially reflective of the model user’s decisions and understanding. This model gave considerable results for the urban development plan. Furthermore, comparison of the model outputs with and without hazard considerations led to notable differences. For example, almost 1% of the study area was rendered unsuitable for residential development in the assessment without hazard consideration. Besides, approximately 14% of the study area were assessed as suitable for without-hazard consideration but less suitable for with-hazard consideration. Since the hazard maps represented patterns and locations of natural hazards, our approach of incorporating them could help highlight the gaps in risk recognition with future development in hazardous areas.</p>

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Bojar, Piotr. "APPLICATION OF FMEA METHOD FOR ASSESSMENT OF RISK IN LAND TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS." Journal of KONES. Powertrain and Transport 19, no. 3 (January 1, 2015): 41–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/12314005.1137942.

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Gerba, C. P., I. L. Pepper, and L. F. Whitehead. "A risk assessment of emerging pathogens of concern in the land application of biosolids." Water Science and Technology 46, no. 10 (November 1, 2002): 225–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2002.0338.

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Since the development of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 503 biosolids Rule, which includes treatment requirements to reduce the threat of pathogen transmission, many new pathogens have been recognized which could be transmitted by biosolids. A risk analysis was performed to assess which emerging pathogens would be most likely to survive treatments required for Class B biosolids before land application. The literature was reviewed on the resistance of emerging pathogens to temperature and other environmental factors to assess their probability of surviving various biosolids treatment processes. In addition existing information on occurrence in biosolids and dose response models for each pathogen was reviewed. It was concluded that adenoviruses and hepatitis A virus are the most thermally resistant viruses and can survive for prolonged periods in the environment. The protozoan parasites microsporidia and Cyclospora were unlikely to survive the temperatures achieved in anaerobic digestion and do not survive well under low moisture conditions. A risk model was used to assess the risk of infection and illness from enteric viruses after application of class B biosolids.

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Nag, Rajat, Ciaran Monahan, Paul Whyte, Bryan K. Markey, Vincent O'Flaherty, Declan Bolton, Owen Fenton, Karl G. Richards, and Enda Cummins. "Risk assessment of Escherichia coli in bioaerosols generated following land application of farmyard slurry." Science of The Total Environment 791 (October 2021): 148189. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148189.

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Freire, Paula, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas. "Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 8 (August 23, 2021): 2503–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021.

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Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change. Within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins: the unavailability of freshwater for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of estuarine brackish water during droughts and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges. For each risk, quantitative consequence descriptors are proposed to support risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous consequence–probability diagram. The approach applicability is discussed through its application to the Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. Examples of risk control measures for the risks addressed are presented. The main strengths of the proposed approach are its flexibility to be adapted to local conditions and updated through time, as well as the ease of its application by the risk owner.

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Dentel, S. K. "Contaminants in sludge: implications for management policies and land application." Water Science and Technology 49, no. 10 (May 1, 2004): 21–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2004.0600.

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Policies on sludge (or biosolids) management vary widely, particularly when decisions must be made on what to do with the final product. This paper examines the two principal rationales with which such decisions are made, and through which scientific knowledge is included in the process. These rationales are risk analysis (risk assessment and management), and the criterion of sustainability. Both are found to be potentially arbitrary due to the difficulty in defining the individual constituents necessary to relate environmental phenomena to environmental policy. To place the difficulties in a practical context, this paper presents research results from three recent projects concerned with contaminants in sludge (phosphorus, flocculant polymers, and polymer-surfactant aggregates), and uses the findings to exemplify the dilemma encountered in policy making. A path forward is proposed.

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Laborczi, Annamária, Csaba Bozán, János Körösparti, Gábor Szatmári, Balázs Kajári, Norbert Túri, György Kerezsi, and László Pásztor. "Application of Hybrid Prediction Methods in Spatial Assessment of Inland Excess Water Hazard." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 4 (April 20, 2020): 268. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9040268.

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Inland excess water is temporary water inundation that occurs in flat-lands due to both precipitation and groundwater emerging on the surface as substantial sources. Inland excess water is an interrelated natural and human induced land degradation phenomenon, which causes several problems in the flat-land regions of Hungary covering nearly half of the country. Identification of areas with high risk requires spatial modelling, that is mapping of the specific natural hazard. Various external environmental factors determine the behavior of the occurrence, frequency of inland excess water. Spatial auxiliary information representing inland excess water forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced inland excess water frequency observations. Two hybrid spatial prediction approaches were tested to construct reliable maps, namely Regression Kriging (RK) and Random Forest with Ordinary Kriging (RFK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use, and climate. Comparing the results of the two approaches, we did not find significant differences in their accuracy. Although both methods are appropriate for predicting inland excess water hazard, we suggest the usage of RFK, since (i) it is more suitable for revealing non-linear and more complex relations than RK, (ii) it requires less presupposition on and preprocessing of the applied data, (iii) and keeps the range of the reference data, while RK tends more heavily to smooth the estimations, while (iv) it provides a variable rank, providing explicit information on the importance of the used predictors.

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Velasco, M., À. Cabello, I. Escaler, J. I. Barredo, and A. Barrera-Escoda. "Methodology for risk assessment of flash flood events due to climate and land-use changes: application to the Llobregat basin." Journal of Water and Climate Change 5, no. 2 (January 29, 2014): 204–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.027.

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Global change, including climate, land-use and socio-economic changes, is expected to increase the stress on the entire water cycle. In the Mediterranean region, extreme events are likely to increase due to climate change. This work, framed in the EC Seventh Framework Programme project IMPRINTS, presents a methodology to obtain future flood risk maps using climate and land-use scenarios, identifying the new potential risk zones. The implementation of this methodology is applied to the Llobregat river basin case study. Two different special report on emission scenarios are used, and although the uncertainties are high, the results obtained are coincident: an increase of flood risk is observed in the whole Low Llobregat area. The climate changes affect the basin globally, increasing the risk homogeneously within the area considered. On the other hand, land-use changes represent urban growth in the floodplains, and hence, local risk increases are found in these spots.

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Díez-Herrero, Andrés, and Julio Garrote. "Flood Risk Assessments: Applications and Uncertainties." Water 12, no. 8 (July 24, 2020): 2096. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12082096.

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The present Special Issue brought together recent research findings in Flood Risk Assessments (FRA) and contains contributions on advanced techniques and real cases where FRA have been carried out. The 16 research contributions highlight various processes and related topics where FRA have been applied and the main benefits and improved knowledge derived from them, as well as their replicability in other study sites. The published papers can be classified into three major categories. (a) First, there are those papers focused on improving the methods and results of FRA over different scenarios of both flooding types (river flooding or flash flooding) and flooding areas (urban, non-urban, small mountain communities). (b) Second, there are studies that investigate the application of FRA to diverse topics such as “land urban planning” or “vulnerable infrastructure management (dams, power plants)”. (c) Finally, there is a third group of papers which are focused on the assessment of the sources of uncertainties in FRA, with the aim of improving the results and making it more consistent with the real world.

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Bruno, Maria Francesca, Giulia Motta Zanin, Angela Barbanente, and Leonardo Damiani. "Understanding the Cognitive Components of Coastal Risk Assessment." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 7 (July 18, 2021): 780. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse9070780.

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Nowadays, erosion and flooding risks represent a serious threat to coastal areas and this trend will be worsened due to climate change. The increasing concentration of population in coastal areas has a negative impact on the coastal ecosystem due to change in land use and the exploitation of natural resources, which has also increased exposure to coastal hazards. Risk assessment is hence a primary topic in coastal areas and are often affected by mismanagement and competition of interest between stakeholders. This paper presents an integrated model for coastal risk assessment as well as its application on a test site in the Puglia Region (Southern Italy). An innovative approach has been developed combining a traditional index-based model, exploiting a Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR), with stakeholder’s and policy makers’ engagement by using the Future Workshop method and complementary individual working sessions structured through the use of Fuzzy-Cognitive Maps. The study shows that stakeholders’ and policy makers’ risk perception play a key role in coastal risk management and that the integration of physical risk with social perception is relevant to develop more effective management following the basics of Integrated Coastal Zone Management.

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Archer, D. R., D. Climent-Soler, and I. P. Holman. "Changes in discharge rise and fall rates applied to impact assessment of catchment land use." Hydrology Research 41, no. 1 (December 1, 2009): 13–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.092.

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Despite substantial evidence that land use and management can enhance flood runoff at a local scale, evidence of increased flood risk based on peak discharges is lacking in catchments greater than 10 km2. This analysis is instead based on assessing changes in short-term rates of change in discharge. The influence of land use is demonstrated first on the small Coalburn catchment where changes in rates of rise are closely related to drainage and afforestation. For the larger Axe catchment (288 km2), changes in rates of rise are investigated by comparing annual maximum and peaks over a threshold flows for different periods, by comparing rates of rise associated with given daily rainfall and by adapting the method of flow variability analysis for use of rates of change rather than flow itself. All these methods demonstrate significant changes in river flow dynamics which seem to be in parallel with land use changes even when the influence of climate variability from year to year has been taken into account. Rates of change in discharge appear to respond to land use changes and thus provide a potential basis for application to land use management policies.

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Mathney, Jennifer M. J. "A Critical Review of the U.S. EPA's Risk Assessment for the Land Application of Sewage Sludge." NEW SOLUTIONS: A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy 21, no. 1 (March 16, 2011): 43–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/ns.21.1.h.

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Brooks, John P., Michael R. McLaughlin, Charles P. Gerba, and Ian L. Pepper. "Land Application of Manure and Class B Biosolids: An Occupational and Public Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment." Journal of Environmental Quality 41, no. 6 (November 2012): 2009–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/jeq2011.0430.

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Bondarczuk, Kinga, Anna Markowicz, and Zofia Piotrowska-Seget. "The urgent need for risk assessment on the antibiotic resistance spread via sewage sludge land application." Environment International 87 (February 2016): 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2015.11.011.

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Asfaw, Dagmawi, Emily Black, Matthew Brown, Kathryn Jane Nicklin, Frederick Otu-Larbi, Ewan Pinnington, Andrew Challinor, Ross Maidment, and Tristan Quaife. "TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support." Geoscientific Model Development 11, no. 6 (June 19, 2018): 2353–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018.

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Abstract. Early warning of weather-related hazards enables farmers, policy makers and aid agencies to mitigate their exposure to risk. We present a new operational framework, Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground based measurements-AgricuLtural EaRly warning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT), which aims to provide early warning for meteorological risk to agriculture. TAMSAT-ALERT combines information on land-surface properties, seasonal forecasts and historical weather to quantitatively assess the likelihood of adverse weather-related outcomes, such as low yield. This article describes the modular TAMSAT-ALERT framework and demonstrates its application to risk assessment for low maize yield in northern Ghana (Tamale). The modular design of TAMSAT-ALERT enables it to accommodate any impact or land-surface model driven with meteorological data. The implementation described here uses the well-established General Large Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops to provide probabilistic assessments of the meteorological hazard for maize yield in northern Ghana (Tamale) throughout the growing season. The results show that climatic risk to yield is poorly constrained in the beginning of the season, but as the season progresses, the uncertainty is rapidly reduced. Based on the assessment for the period 2002–2011, we show that TAMSAT-ALERT can estimate the meteorological risk on maize yield 6 to 8 weeks in advance of harvest. The TAMSAT-ALERT methodology implicitly weights forecast and observational inputs according to their relevance to the metric being assessed. A secondary application of TAMSAT-ALERT is thus an evaluation of the usefulness of meteorological forecast products for impact assessment. Here, we show that in northern Ghana (Tamale), the tercile seasonal forecasts of seasonal cumulative rainfall and mean temperature, which are routinely issued to farmers, are of limited value because regional and seasonal temperature and rainfall are poorly correlated with yield. This finding speaks to the pressing need for meteorological forecast products that are tailored for individual user applications.

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Tomaz, Alexandra, Patrícia Palma, Sofia Fialho, Ana Lima, Paula Alvarenga, Miguel Potes, Maria João Costa, and Rui Salgado. "Risk Assessment of Irrigation-Related Soil Salinization and Sodification in Mediterranean Areas." Water 12, no. 12 (December 19, 2020): 3569. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12123569.

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Salinization and sodification are important processes of soil degradation affecting irrigated lands. A large proportion of the global irrigated area is affected by some degree of soil salinity or sodicity caused by the intensification of irrigation. The increase of the frequency of adverse climatic conditions, like high temperatures and variations in precipitation patterns caused by climate change, will potentially amplify these processes in arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean areas. The use of integrated approaches for the spatial and temporal prediction of the risk of salinization and sodification in irrigated areas is of great value, helping in the decision-making regarding land uses and choice of more suitable agricultural practices. In this study, based on key criteria for the assessment of irrigation-related salinization processes (e.g., climate, topography, soil drainage, water quality for irrigation, and crop irrigation method), we developed a methodology for the prediction of soil salinity and sodicity risk in irrigated lands, using two composite indices, the Salinization Risk (RSA) index and the Sodification Risk (RSO) index. The application of these indices to a real scenario (a Mediterranean area in Southern Portugal) showed that 67% of the potentially irrigated area presented a low risk of salinity development, 68% had a moderate risk of sodification, and 16% was of high risk of sodicity development. Areas under moderate risk of salinization (26%) were mostly characterized by low slopes and fine-textured soils, like Luvisols and Vertisols, with limited drainage conditions. Areas with high risk of soil sodification presented a large incidence of low slope terrain, moderate-to-restricted soil drainage, in high clay content Luvisols, Vertisols and Cambisols, and land use dominated by annual crops irrigated with surface or sprinkler systems. These risk prediction tools have the potential to be used for resource use planning by policymakers and on-farm management decision by farmers, contributing to the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean regions.

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Xiao, Liang, Yong Zhou, He Huang, Yu-Jie Liu, Ke Li, Meng-Yao Li, Yang Tian, and Fei Wu. "Application of Geostatistical Analysis and Random Forest for Source Analysis and Human Health Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) in Arable Land Soil." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 24 (December 12, 2020): 9296. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249296.

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Arable land soil is one of the most precious natural resources of Earth, it provides the fundamental material and numerous resources essential for the development of human society. To determine the pollution of potential toxic factors in the surface soil of cultivated land and its risks to human health, concentrations of five different potentially toxic elements (PTEs) were detected in 1109 soil samples collected in Xiangzhou, China, in 2019. In this study, health risk assessment was used to judge the degree of pollution in the study area, the result of Geographic Information System (GIS) was as used to research the spatial distribution characteristics of PTEs, and random forest (RF) was used to assess the natural and man-made influencing factors. We investigated the sources of PTEs through quantifying the indicators, which gave further insights. The main results are: (1) In arable land soil, the average content of PTEs is 0.14 mg/kg cadmium (Cd), 0.05 mg/kg mercury (Hg), 12.89 mg/kg arsenic (As), 29.23 mg/kg lead (Pb), and 78.58 mg/kg chromium (Cr), respectively. The content of As and Pb outpaced the background value of Hubei soil. (2) The human health risk assessment in Xiangzhou indicates that the most important exposure pathway is soil ingestion, occupied about 99% to health risks of PTEs; non-carcinogenic risk from exposure to As, Pb and Cr in soil was higher than the limit (overall potential risk index, HI > 1) for both children and adults. Moreover, carcinogenic risk postured by Cd, Cr, and As was higher than the limit (10−4) through soil exposure for both children and adults, indicating that Cd, As, Pb and Cr in soil have significant effect on people’s health through exposure. (3) We found that the increased PTEs in the arable land soil mainly originated from potential water sources, air and soil pollution sources, breeding farms, and mining areas.

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Crawford, M. H., K. M. Williams, A. J. W. Biggs, and E. Dafny. "Salinity risk assessment of an irrigation development using treated coal seam gas water in the Condamine River catchment." Soil Research 59, no. 1 (2021): 44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/sr19375.

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All irrigation developments inherently carry a salinity risk, due to an unavoidable change in the water and salt balance. The time frame in which either land or water salinity will develop is driven by the ability of the landscape to absorb the change of water and salt supplied. Factors that influence this are landscape attributes, such as the size of the unsaturated zone and its properties (permeability and drainage), management considerations (land-use changes, water application rate and crop water use) and climate variability (temperature and rainfall). This study assessed the risk of secondary salinity expression occurring in an irrigation area in the Condamine-Balonne catchment in southern inland Queensland, Australia. The objectives were to (1) define the depth, size and properties of the unsaturated zone and regolith, (2) define deep drainage rates for past, present and future land uses and (3) assess this information to calculate the risk that groundwater table rise may result in surface salinity expression. Data collected during field investigations was used to conceptualise the regolith architecture, undertake hydrogeological modelling, estimate the available moisture storage capacity of the unsaturated zone and model paddock deep drainage characteristics. The work identified that irrigation-induced deep drainage had started to mobilise salt stores in the unsaturated zone. It also identified connectivity between land management and salt discharges into the Condamine River. As the water supply for the scheme is scheduled to continue until 2030, there is a clear risk of the unsaturated zone moisture storage capacity being exceeded, leading to both land and surface water salt expressions.

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McFarland, Michael J., Karthik Kumarsamy, Robert B. Brobst, Alan Hais, and Mark Schmitz. "Risk Characterization of Biosolids Land Application Practices Using EPA's Multimedia, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Exposure and Risk Assessment (3MRA) Technology." Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation 2009, no. 16 (January 1, 2009): 1274–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.2175/193864709793956716.

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Cantarino, I., F. J. Torrijo, S. Palencia, and E. Gielen. "Assessing residential buildings value in Spain for risk analyses. Application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, no. 5 (May 22, 2014): 3615–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3615-2014.

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Abstract. This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of buildings throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. If hazard maps and risk assessment methods – the other variables – are available, the risk value can easily be obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analyzed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

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Triet, Nguyen Van Khanh, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel. "Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 11 (November 5, 2018): 2859–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018.

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Abstract. Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost–benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

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Lyu, Hai-Min, Yong-Xia Wu, Jack Shen, and An-Nan Zhou. "Assessment of Social-Economic Risk of Chinese Dual Land Use System Using Fuzzy AHP." Sustainability 10, no. 7 (July 13, 2018): 2451. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10072451.

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The Chinese dual land use system (DLUS) has played a crucial role in the industrialization of China since 1950s. However, this dual system caused/causes obstacles in urban development under the new market economic conditions. This paper presents an approach to assess the social-economic risks during urban development in China by integrating the strategic environment assessment (SEA) principle into the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. In the proposed approach, SEA principles are set as the influencing factors in AHP. Fuzzy AHP is used to assess the relative importance degree of the six principles in SEA. To illustrate the application procedure of the proposed approach, a building collapse incident in Wenzhou is used as a case for the risk analysis. The assessment results show that the index of the manage system has the greatest importance to social-economic risk. The principle of sustainable development (A) and monitoring measures (E) have more importance than the other principles in SEA. It can be concluded that the DLUS in the market management of China may be responsible for building collapse incidents in rural areas. It is suggested that the principles of sustainable development and monitoring measures in SEA should be strictly implemented during urbanization, and it is recommended that the government establish a unified management system and ensure the effective implementation of sustainable urbanization.

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Navarro, I., B. Jiménez, S. Lucario, and E. Cifuentes. "Application of Helminth ova infection dose curve to estimate the risks associated with biosolid application on soil." Journal of Water and Health 7, no. 1 (October 1, 2008): 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wh.2009.113.

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Helminth ova (HO) are the main biological concern when reusing sludge for agricultural production. Worldwide sludge regulations consider a permissible range of 0.25–1 HO/gTS. Such limits are unaffordable to most developing countries, due to high helminth ova content in sludge, and the lack of viable technology to inactivate them as needed. The quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a useful tool to estimate the risk of treated sludge, considering feasible and viable limits. QMRA, however, has not been applied before for HO because no dose-infection curve was available. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are: to build up a risk-based model designed for untreated wastewater exposure (i.e., land irrigation) using Ascaris lumbricoides eggs as indicators for HO, and apply the results to assess health risk (i.e., Ascaris lumbricoides infection) associated with consumption of crops grown on biosolid-enriched soil. Data showed that it may be feasible to update HO threshold in biosolids from developing countries without significantly increasing risks. To reduce health risk from HO, it may be wiser to achieve feasible and evidence-based standards, than to set unaffordable limits in these countries. QMRA data suggested additional protection measures, such as biosolid application rates, crop restriction, and produce better washing practices.

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Dentel, S. K., Y. Qi, and D. S. Herson. "Improving the assessment of risk from pathogens in biosolids: fecal coliform regrowth, survival, enumeration, and assessment." Water Science and Technology 57, no. 2 (January 1, 2008): 189–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2008.005.

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Reactivation or regrowth of fecal coliform bacteria in biosolids has recently become a concern due to knowledge that Class B materials may fail to meet this criterion after storage or even after land application. In this paper, data show the two types of fecal coliform increases that have been characterized: immediate reappearance of large concentrations directly after dewatering; and the rapid, but less immediate, increases that follow dewatering with some biosolids after dewatering. The latter phenomenon is shown to extend over a time period of days prior to gradual decrease in fecal coliform numbers. Modeling shows that anaerobic or fermentative growth cannot simulate the observed growth, but that a straightforward biokinetic model can duplicate the observed conditions if a doubling time of one hour is assumed, which is supported by literature. Thus regrowth cannot be ruled out as the underlying phenomenon

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Johnson, Janet A., Elizabeth D. Caldwell, and Anne K. Woodland. "ASSESSMENT OF RISK FROM LAND APPLICATION OF WASTE WATER CONTAINING ELEVATED LEVELS OF NATURALLY OCCURRING RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS." Journal American Society of Mining and Reclamation 1997, no. 1 (1997): 736–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.21000/jasmr97010736.

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Rabert, William, and Maurice Zeeman. "Dioxins/furans: U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment for land application and disposal methods for paper pulp sludge." Chemosphere 25, no. 7-10 (October 1992): 1499–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0045-6535(92)90176-r.

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Lawrence, Frank H., Russell E. Keenan, David W. Crawford, and Mary M. Sauer. "Human health risk assessment related to exposure to dioxin from land application of wastewater sludge in maine." Toxicology 47, no. 1-2 (December 1987): 220. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0300-483x(87)90187-9.

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Hale, Robert C., and Mark J. La Guardia. "Have Risks Associated with the Presence of Synthetic Organic Contaminants in Land-Applied Sewage Sludges Been Adequately Assessed?" NEW SOLUTIONS: A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy 12, no. 4 (February 2003): 371–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/eg3a-p708-9a2l-brf5.

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Land application has become the dominant means for sewage sludge disposal in the United States. In 1993, the EPA concluded that synthetic organics therein posed an insignificant risk, based on the results of the 1988 National Sewage Sludge Survey, the view that most persistent organics are no longer in commerce and that industrial pretreatment further reduces their release to municipal treatment plants. However, we detected high concentrations of several problematic compounds in biosolids that were overlooked in the risk assessment, including persistent, bioaccumulative polybrominated diphenyl ethers and estrogenic nonylphenols. These results and other findings call into question the assessment's certainty.

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Crawford, Brian A., John C. Maerz, and Clinton T. Moore. "Expert-Informed Habitat Suitability Analysis for At-Risk Species Assessment and Conservation Planning." Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 11, no. 1 (February 19, 2020): 130–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3996/092019-jfwm-075.

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Abstract The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus, southern hognose snake Heterodon simus, Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus, gopher frog Lithobates (Rana) capito, and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus. To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

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Lin, Yaoben, Yanmei Ye, Cifang Wu, Jianhui Yang, Yiming Hu, and Haokun Shi. "Comprehensive assessment of paddy soil quality under land consolidation: a novel perspective of microbiology." PeerJ 7 (July 22, 2019): e7351. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7351.

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Soil quality assessment is an important means to demonstrate how effective land consolidation is. However, the existing assessment system is not sufficient to reflect actual soil quality. So, the purpose of this study is to integrate abiological and biological indicators into a comprehensive assessment to evaluate the paddy soil quality under different land consolidation practices. Soil samples were collected from 35 paddy sites under different land consolidation practices including land merging, land leveling (LL), ditch construction (DC) and application of organic fertilizer (AO). A total of 10 paddy sites were selected under conventional tillage (CT) from non-land consolidation area as a control group in Y county, China. The results indicated that soil organic matter (OM), total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus, bacterial functional diversity (BFD), bacterial and fungal abundances were significantly improved. Fields under LL, among all the land consolidation practices, might still face the risk of land degradation caused by low TN, OM and microbial diversity. High microbial biomass, BFD and OM were significantly higher in fields under AO in nutrient cycle. According to the results of comprehensive assessment, the samples with severe heavy metal contamination and low microbial diversity were generally concentrated in CT. These results indicated that land consolidation was an efficient technique to improve soil quality and could achieve higher quality of agricultural products.

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Iuppa, Claudio, Luca Cavallaro, Rosaria Ester Musumeci, and Enrico Foti. "COASTAL FLOODING RISK ASSESSMENT BY A NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36v (December 31, 2020): 9. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.9.

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An effective system of coastal flooding forecasting in the case of storm is essential to mitigate coastal risks for the population living in low-land coastal zones (less than 10 m above MSL). Nowadays, predictions of coastal flooding are usually carried out by adopting nested numerical models. However, the models adopted to obtain the data in the nearshore area require high computational costs, which are often too demanding and not viable for large scale forecasting. Data-driven models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can help to solve the problem as they can map complex nonlinear relationships between input and output variables once a suitable dataset of process realizations is available. In the present study a forecasting model for coastal flooding based on ANNs, in which the input data are the offshore wave characteristics from large scale model and the output results are the flooded areas, is proposed. These outputs provided a straightforward prediction of the area interested by coastal flooding during storms. Here an application of the model to assess the flooding risk in the village of Granelli, in the Southeast of Sicily (Italy) is presented.

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Parisien, Marc-André, Denyse A. Dawe, Carol Miller, Christopher A. Stockdale, and O. Bradley Armitage. "Applications of simulation-based burn probability modelling: a review." International Journal of Wildland Fire 28, no. 12 (2019): 913. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf19069.

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Wildland fire scientists and land managers working in fire-prone areas require spatial estimates of wildfire potential. To fulfill this need, a simulation-modelling approach was developed whereby multiple individual wildfires are modelled in an iterative fashion across a landscape to obtain location-based measures of fire likelihood and fire behaviour (e.g. fire intensity, biomass consumption). This method, termed burn probability (BP) modelling, takes advantage of fire spread algorithms created for operational uses and the proliferation of available data representing wildfire patterns, fuels and weather. This review describes this approach and provides an overview of its applications in wildland fire research, risk analysis and land management. We broadly classify the application of BP models as (1) direct examination, (2) neighbourhood processes, (3) fire hazard and risk and (4) integration with secondary models. Direct examination analyses are those that require no further processing of model outputs; they range from a simple visual examination of outputs to an assessment of alternate states (i.e. scenarios). Neighbourhood process analyses examine patterns of fire ignitions and subsequent spread across land designations. Fire hazard combines fire probability and a quantitative assessment of fire behaviour, whereas risk is the product of fire likelihood and potential impacts of wildfire. The integration with secondary models represents situations where BP model outputs are integrated into, or used in conjunction with, other models or modelling platforms.

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Díez-Herrero, Andrés, and Julio Garrote. "Flood Risk Analysis and Assessment, Applications and Uncertainties: A Bibliometric Review." Water 12, no. 7 (July 18, 2020): 2050. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12072050.

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Studies looking at flood risk analysis and assessment (FRA) reviews are not customary, and they usually approach to methodological and spatial scale issues, uncertainty, mapping or economic damage topics. However, most of these reviews provide a snapshot of the scientific state of the art of FRA that shows only a partial view, focused on a limited number of selected methods and approaches. In this paper, we apply a bibliometric analysis using the Web of Science (WoS) database to assess the historic evolution and future prospects (emerging fields of application) of FRA. The scientific production of FRA has increased considerably in the past decade. At the beginning, US researchers dominated the field, but now they have been overtaken by the Chinese. The Netherlands and Germany may be highlighted for their more complete analyses and assessments (e.g., including an uncertainty analysis of FRA results), and this can be related to the presence of competitive research groups focused on FRA. Regarding FRA fields of application, resilience analysis shows some growth in recent years while land planning, risk perception and risk warning show a slight decrease in the number of papers published. Global warming appears to dominate part of future FRA production, which affects both fluvial and coastal floods. This, together with the improvement of economic evaluation and psycho-social analysis, appear to be the main trends for the future evolution of FRA. Finally, we cannot ignore the increase in analysis using big data analysis, machine learning techniques, and remote sensing data (particularly in the case of UAV sensors data).

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Hyvönen, Terho, Miska Luoto, and Pertti Uotila. "Assessment of weed establishment risk in a changing European climate." Agricultural and Food Science 21, no. 4 (December 18, 2012): 348–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.23986/afsci.6321.

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We aimed at assessing establishment risk for 25 arable weed species in a changing European climate for the period 2051–2080. An increase (0.3–46.7%) in the range size was projected for the 14 species and a decrease (1.2–67.4%) for the 11 species in a future climate. The inclusion of the land use data increased the explanatory power of the models. The greatest increases in range sizes were projected for Amaranthus retroflexus, Papaver hybridum and Fumaria parviflora, and declines for Sinapis arvensis, Cerastium semidecandrum and Chenopodium rubrum. Application of a more severe climate scenario (HadCM3A2) affected decline (0.5–18.5%) for 12 species and increase (2.2–31.5%) for 13 species in the range size projections compared with the less severe (HadCM3B2) scenario. Both model scenarios projected high percentage species loss in Mediterranean and temperate Europe, but high species gain in the Alps, Carpathians and in boreal Europe. The results suggest that even under moderate climate scenarios drastic changes in the weed establishment risk can be expected to take place in Europe in the future.

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Waltner, István, Sahar Saeidi, János Grósz, Csaba Centeri, Annamária Laborczi, and László Pásztor. "Spatial Assessment of the Effects of Land Cover Change on Soil Erosion in Hungary from 1990 to 2018." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 11 (November 6, 2020): 667. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9110667.

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As soil erosion is still a global threat to soil resources, the estimation of soil loss, particularly at a spatiotemporal setting, is still an existing challenge. The primary aim of our study is the assessment of changes in soil erosion potential in Hungary from 1990 to 2018, induced by the changes in land use and land cover based on CORINE Land Cover data. The modeling scheme included the application and cross-valuation of two internationally applied methods, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) models. Results indicate that the changes in land cover resulted in a general reduction in predicted erosion rates, by up to 0.28 t/ha/year on average. Analysis has also revealed that the combined application of the two models has reduced the occurrence of extreme predictions, thus, increasing the robustness of the method. Random Forest regression analysis has revealed that the differences between the two models are mainly driven by their sensitivity to slope and land cover, followed by soil parameters. The resulting spatial predictions can be readily applied for qualitative spatial analysis. However, the question of extreme predictions still indicates that quantitative use of the output results should only be carried out with sufficient care.

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Guo, Kai, Xi Kuai, Yiyun Chen, Lin Qi, Lei Zhang, and Yanfang Liu. "Risk assessment of land ecology on a regional scale: Application of the relative risk model to the mining city of Daye, China." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 23, no. 3 (February 14, 2017): 550–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2016.1255137.

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Houet, Thomas, Marine Grémont, Laure Vacquié, Yann Forget, Apolline Marriotti, Anne Puissant, Séverine Bernardie, Yannick Thiery, Rosalie Vandromme, and Gilles Grandjean. "Downscaling scenarios of future land use and land cover changes using a participatory approach: an application to mountain risk assessment in the Pyrenees (France)." Regional Environmental Change 17, no. 8 (June 3, 2017): 2293–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1171-z.

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Cantarino, I., F. J. Torrijo, S. Palencia, and E. Gielen. "Assessing residential building values in Spain for risk analyses – application to the landslide hazard in the Autonomous Community of Valencia." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 11 (November 19, 2014): 3015–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3015-2014.

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Abstract. This paper proposes a method of valuing the stock of residential buildings in Spain as the first step in assessing possible damage caused to them by natural hazards. For the purposes of the study we had access to the SIOSE (the Spanish Land Use and Cover Information System), a high-resolution land-use model, as well as to a report on the financial valuations of this type of building throughout Spain. Using dasymetric disaggregation processes and GIS techniques we developed a geolocalized method of obtaining this information, which was the exposure variable in the general risk assessment formula. Then, with the application over a hazard map, the risk value can be easily obtained. An example of its application is given in a case study that assesses the risk of a landslide in the entire 23 200 km2 of the Valencia Autonomous Community (NUT2), the results of which are analysed by municipal areas (LAU2) for the years 2005 and 2009.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Land application risk assessment'

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