Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Land application risk assessment'

Biosolids are valuable products which can be beneficially used in land application. However, the possibility of serious health effects on humans due to several pollutants in biosolids creates a big concern. To address this issue, risk-based methodologies are commonly used to evaluate health effects associated with the land application of biosolids. This study aims to investigate the health risks associated with ingestion of biosolids or soil mixed with biosolids by a child. This study is the first health risk assessment study in Turkey for land application of biosolids. Monthly sludge samples taken from Ankara Central Wastewater Treatment Plant (ACWWTP) in 2012 were analyzed for seven heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn), and two organic contaminants (PCB and NPE) concentrations. To calculate health risks, methodologies developed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS) were used. With both methods, cancer and non-cancer risks for the ingestion by a child pathway were determined and found to be below the acceptable cancer and non-cancer risk levels suggested by U.S. EPA and INERIS. Additionally, same health risk calculations were conducted for sludge and soil limit values provided in Turkish Regulation for the Use of Sewage Sludge in Agriculture (2010) to determine what the maximum health risk would be for the worst case scenario in Turkey. According to the results, even if the concentrations are at the maximum possible regulatory levels, the health risks are still low.

In the United States greater than 6 million dry tons of biosolids are produced nationwide, with greater than 60% being land applied. Although most counties utilizing land application are practicing this beyond nearby homes, the increase in population has begun to blur the line between rural and urban communities. This study was conducted to investigate the occurrence of biological aerosols (bioaerosols) containing microorganisms and endotoxins, and assess the human health risk involved in these practices. Aerosol samples were collected for 2 years from land application sites located at various locations throughout the U.S.A., which represented different climatic conditions and different application practices. Land application practices involved the use of liquid biosolids spray and "cake" biosolids applicators depending on location. Bioaerosols were collected via the use of six SKC Biosamplers, impinging air at a rate of 12.5 L/min for a total of 20 minutes. Samples were collected from both downwind of land application and background sites from distances ranging between 2 m and 70 m downwind. Microbial concentrations were measured within these aerosols, measurements included: heterotrophic plate count bacteria (HPC), coliphage, Clostridium perfringens, total coliforms, Escherichia coli, endotoxin (lipopolysaccharide), enteroviruses, norovirus, and Hepatitis A virus (HAV). In addition a model was developed to predict viral transport. Overall the levels of aerosolized indicator bacteria and phage were at or below detection limits. Three samples were positive for the presence of norovirus viral RNA via reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, although their viability was unable to be determined based on current available techniques. Calculated microbial risks of infection were determined to be at or below the acceptable risk of annual infection from drinking water proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency, 1:10,000. Biosolids loading scenarios presented the greatest risk of infection, partly due to the point source of exposure. All other portions of biosolids land application operations yielded risks of infection well below the annual 1:10,000 risk of infection. Overall the microbial aerosol exposures brought about by land applied biosolids are minimal and hence minimal overall risks of infection.

Presented is a study of persistent organic pollutants in Australian sewage sludge, focusing on environmental monitoring and a sewage sludge land application human health risk contaminated with these compounds. The chemicals of concern were: • Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and

There are a large number of unlined and historical landfill sites across Britain, contaminating groundwater and soil resources as well as posing a threat to human health and local communities. There is an essential requirement for robust methodology when carrying out risk-based site investigations prior to risk assessment and remediation of landfill sites. This research has focused upon the methods used during site investigations for two reasons. Firstly, the site investigation is often conducted using field instruments and methods that do not account for the heterogeneous conditions found at landfill sites. Interpreting geophysical conditions between sampled points is a common practise. Given the complex and heterogeneous conditions at landfill sites, such methodology introduces uncertainty into data sets. Secondly, risk estimation models that simulate groundwater flow and contaminant transport require extensive field information. The data used during model construction will significantly impact contaminant transport simulations. Modelling guidelines also need further development, ensuring that sound modelling practises are adhered to during model construction. To address these concerns, four research objectives were identified: (1) Two new multi-spatial field assessment methods (remote sensing and ground penetrating radar), previously applied in other fields of science, were tested on landfill sites; (2) Kriging was used as a tool to improve landfill-sampling strategies; (3 & 4) Groundwater flow and contaminant transport models were used to evaluate whether different scales of field data and modelling practises influenced modelling assumptions and simulation. The utility of novel field- and airborne-based remote sensing methodologies in identifying the location and intensity of vegetation stress caused by leachate migration and inferring pathways of near surface contamination using patterns of vegetation stress was proven. The results from the kriging investigations demonstrated that additional insight into field conditions could be resolved to identify locations of additional sampling points, and provide information about variability in hydrological data sets. The Ground Penetrating Radar investigations provided three types of valuable near-surface information that could assist in determining landfill risks: buried landfill features, leachate plume locations and local hydrogeological conditions. These combined methods provided detailed synoptic geophysical and contaminant information that would otherwise be difficult to determine. Their application and acceptance as site assessment methods (used under certain landfill conditions) could increase the accuracy of assessing risks posed by landfill leachate. These applications also demonstrated that the most effective site assessments are achieved when integrated with other field data such as soil, vegetation, and groundwater quantity measurements, contaminant concentrations and aerial photographs, providing comprehensive information needed for risk estimation modelling. The modelling analyses found that close attention must be paid to site-specific and model-specific characteristics, as well as modelling practises. These factors influenced model results. By using additional data to infer model parameters, it was evident that the amount of data available will influence the way in which risk will be perceived. The more data that was available during model construction, the higher the risk prediction. This was the case for some seventy- percent of the models. By improving the accuracy of site investigation methodology, and by adhering to robust assessment and modelling practices, a higher level of quality assurance can be achieved in the risk assessment and remediation of contaminating landfill sites. If the improvements and recommendations presented in this research are considered, uncertainties inherent in the site investigation could be reduced, therefore enhancing the accuracy of landfill risk assessment and remedial decisions.

Floods can result in enormous causalities and huge economic losses in urban and rural regions. In recent years, while assessing the damage, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty in flood hazards. The lack of knowledge about the water extend, water depth, water velocity and potential damage in case of flood increase the vulnerability of the people to disasters in the flood region. Especially this information is valuable for city planners and decision makers. In case of new settlement area selection, correct decision can be taken by the help of this information. This type of information can be taken from hydraulic models as 1D or 2D. On the other hand, two dimensional (2D) hydraulic modeling becomes a need with increasing trends of very high speed computers and models instead of one dimensional (1D) ones. The ability of solving complex structures within few minutes enhances the use of 2D modeling with the integration of wave motion. In addressing the uncertainty, GIS becomes an important tool in risk assessment by integrating the flood depth, extend and vulnerability issues for definition of the quantitative risk. In this study, 1D and 2D hydraulic modeling is applied and combined with the quantitative vulnerability factors in Dalaman Plain-Turkey. Results show that the area is vulnerable to flood and high monetary damages can be seen in case a flood in the region.

The heart is a fundamental aspect of the human body. Significant work has been undertaken to better understand the characteristics and mechanisms of this organ in past research. Greater understanding of the heart not only provides advances in medicine but also enables practitioners to better assess the health risk of patients. This thesis approaches the study of the heart from a health informatics perspective. The questions posed in this thesis is whether research is capable of describing and modelling heart data from a statistical perspective, along with exploring techniques to improve the accuracy of clinical risk assessment algorithms that rely on this data. The contributions of this thesis may be grouped into two main areas: statistical analysis, modelling and simulation of heart data; and improved risk assessment accuracy of the Early Warning Score (EWS) algorithm using a quartile-based technique. Statistical analysis of heart data, namely RR intervals, contributes to more informed understanding of the underlying characteristics of the heart and is achieved using null-hypothesis testing through the Anderson-Darling (AD) test statistic. The modelling process of heart data demonstrates methodologies for simulation of this data type, namely individual distribution modelling and normal mixture modelling, and contributes to assessing techniques that are most capable of modelling this type of data. For improved accuracy on the EWS algorithms, a quartiles technique, inspired by anomaly-based intrusion detection systems, is presented which enables customisation of risk score thresholds for each patient defined during a training phase. Simulated heart data is used to evaluate the standard EWS algorithm against the quartile-based approach. The defined metric of accuracy ratio provides quantitative evidence on the accuracy of the standard EWS algorithm in comparison with the proposed quartile based technique. Statistical analysis in this thesis demonstrates that samples of heart data can be described using normal, Weibull, logistic and gamma distribution within the scope of two minute data samples. When there is strong evidence to suggest that RR intervals analysed fits a particular distribution, individual modelling technique is the ideal candidate whilst normal mixture modelling is better suited for long-term modelling, i.e. greater than two minutes of heart data. In comparative evaluation of the standard EWS algorithm and the quartile-based technique using modelled heart data, greater accuracy is demonstrated in the quartiles-based technique for patients whose heart rate is healthy, but outside the normal ranges of the general population.

Petroleum Transportation Systems (PTSs) have a significant impact on the flow of crude oil within a Petroleum Supply Chain (PSC), due to the great demand on this natural product. Such systems are used for safe movement of crude and/or refined products from starting points (i.e. production sites or storage tanks), to their final destinations, via land or sea transportation. PTSs are vulnerable to several risks because they often operate in a dynamic environment. Due to this environment, many potential risks and uncertainties are involved. Not only having a direct effect on the product flow within PSC, PTSs accidents could also have severe consequences for the humans, businesses, and the environment. Therefore, safe operations of the key systems such as port, ship and pipeline, are vital for the success of PTSs. This research introduces an advanced approach to ensure safety of PTSs. This research proposes multiple network analysis, risk assessment, uncertainties treatment and decision making techniques for dealing with potential hazards and operational issues that are happening within the marine ports, ships, or pipeline transportation segments within one complete system. The main phases of the developed framework are formulated in six steps. In the first phase of the research, the hazards in PTSs operations that can lead to a crude oil spill are identified through conducting an extensive review of literature and experts’ knowledge. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning (FRBBR) and Hugin software are applied in the new context of PTSs to assess and prioritise the local PTSs failures as one complete system. The third phase uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to determine the weight of PTSs local factors. In the fourth phase, network analysis approach is used to measure the importance of petroleum ports, ships and pipelines systems globally within Petroleum Transportation Networks (PTNs). This approach can help decision makers to measure and detect the critical nodes (ports and transportation routes) within PTNs. The fifth phase uses an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software, to assess hazards influencing on PTSs as one complete system. This research developed an advance risk-based framework applied ER approach due to its ability to combine the local/internal and global/external risk analysis results of the PTSs. To complete the cycle of this study, the best mitigating strategies are introduced and evaluated by incorporating VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and AHP to rank the risk control options. The novelty of this framework provides decision makers with realistic and flexible results to ensure efficient and safe operations for PTSs.

Modern day computer networks have become very complex and attackers have benefited due to this complexity and have found vulnerabilities and loopholes in the network architecture. In order to identify the attacks from an attacker all aspects of network architecture needs to be carefully examined such as packet headers, network scans, versions of applications, network scans, network anomalies etc. and after the examination attributes playing a significant impact on the security posture of the organization needs to be highlighted so that resources and efforts are directed towards those attributes. In this work we extensively look at network traffic at dormitory network of a large campus and try to identify the attributes that play a significant role in the infection of a machine. Our scheme is to collect as much attributes from the network traffic applying the heuristic of network infection and then devise a scheme called decision centric rank ordering of security metric that gives the priority to the security metrics so that network administrators can channel their efforts in the right direction. Another aspect of this research is to identify the probability of an attack on a communication infrastructure. A communication infrastructure becomes prone to attack if certain elements exist in it, such as vulnerabilities in the comprising elements of the system, existence of an attacker and motivation for him to attack. Focus of this study is on vulnerability assessment and security metrics such as user behavior, operating systems, user applications, and software updates. To achieve a quantified value of risk, a set of machines is carefully observed for the security metrics. Statistical analysis is applied on the data collected from compromised machines and the quantified value of risk is achieved.

Mobile applications are software that extend the functionality of our smartphones by connecting us with friends and a wide range of other services. Android, which is an operating system based on the Linux kernel, leads the market with over 2.6 million applications recorded on their official store. Application developers, due to the ever-growing innovation in smartphones, are compelled to release new ideas on limited budget and time, resulting in the deployment of malicious applications. Although there exists a security mechanism on the Google Play Store to remove these applications, studies have shown that most of the applications on the app store compromise privacy or pose security-related risks. It is therefore essential to investigate the security risk of installing any of these applications on a device. The objectives are to identify methods and techniques for assessing mobile application security, investigate how attributes indicate the harmfulness of applications, and evaluate the performance of K Nearest Neighbors(K-NN) and Random forest machine learning models in assessing the security risk of installing mobile applications based on information available on the application distribution platform. A literature analysis was done to gather information on the different methods and techniques for assessing security in mobile applications and investigations on how different attributes on the application distribution platform indicate the harmfulness of an application. An experiment was also conducted to examine how various machine learning models perform in evaluating the security risk associated with installing applications, based on information on the application distribution platform. Literature analysis presents the various methods and techniques for mobile application security assessment and identifies how mobile application attributes indicate the harmfulness of mobile applications. The experimental results demonstrate the performance of the aforementioned machine learning models in evaluating the security risk of installing mobile applications. In conclusion, Static, dynamic, and grey-box analysis are the methods used to evaluate mobile application security, and machine learning models including K-NN and Random forest are suitable techniques for evaluating mobile application security risk. Attributes such as the permissions, number of installations, and ratings reveal the likelihood and impact of an underlying security threat. The K-NN and Random forest models when compared to evaluate the security risk of installing mobile applications based on information on the application distribution platform showed high performance with little differences.

The harbour land fill in Halmstad has been described in the news as one of the most polluted areas in Halland County based on the a survey from the Swedish environmental protection agency. In order to identify the extent and severity of the situation several environmental investigations have been performed in this area. This report is based on available data from investigations and environmental reports from WSP, Höganäs AB, HEM and Halmstad municipality. This investigation focus on an “Area C” within the land fill where the main land fill material is i.a. slag from a steel work, construction waste, dredge spoil, waste from glass production and a casting shop. Of these material the focus have been on the metal rich slag from the steel work and its possible environmental impact. The environmental exposure of Hg, Pb, Cd, Cr, Zn, Ni, Mo and V have been calculated as an annual load from Area C. Unfortunately the data available for this investigation has not been complete, e.g. slag concentration data with corresponding leachate data was only obtained for one year. The groundwater data and land fill metal concentrations have been measured only once. This made it impossible to investigate e.g. annual variations like ageing effects of the material or weather variations, variation in the properties of the deposed slag material and statistical significance in differences could not be calculated. Further characterisation of the land fill would be worthwhile in order to be able to draw some conclusions. Calculations of the environmental load has been performed based on concentration in the slag, the land fill, the leachate data of the slag and groundwater concentrations. A model has been developed to calculate the weighted land fill metal concentration. The partitioning coefficient, Kd; between soil and liquid has been calculated and used to estimate the environmental load. It was assumed that the groundwater data was the most reliable data, which indicated that the exposure may be higher than from common soil, especially for Pb and Mo. Relating the environmental exposure values with guideline values based on MKM (less sensitive land use)-land using HQ (hazard quotient) indicates a decreasing risk in the order Pb>V>Mo. However, the exposure is well below that from MKM soil which could be assumed, according to Swedish environmental protection agency guideline values, to be an acceptable exposure.

This research aims to introduce an innovative risk assessment model to Thailand real estate's industry as well as to investigate the risk perception of Thai practitioners. A theoretical framework that was developed from a review of the extant literature was used in the subsequent stages of research design, data collection and analysis. The extensive literature review revealed that the systematic risk assessment methods were too remote from the existing industry practices and these shall be considered as valid approaches by industry. The theoretical frameworks were established based on the requirements of Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political (STEEP) factors. These were well rooted in practice and that individual perception toward risk was a key experiential aspect of risk assessment. The research strategy was designed as a two-phase approach. The first phase was a quantitative approach using the questionnaires survey techniques to gather 210 Thai developers' opinions towards risk assessment practices and the perception towards STEEP factors. The resultant data set was analysed with the statistic tests such as Component Analysis (CA), Explorative Factor Analysis (EF A), etc. The EFA test was applied to 66 risk assessment criteria in order to form the risk assessment model. The phase 1 resulted in a tentative model which was explored in the qualitative phase (phase 2) of the study. TIlls phase adopted the interviews with 13 Thai real estate practitioners, the interview transcripts were analysed using the content analysis and manual coding. The details of risk in this industry, and the requirements/features for the ideal risk assessment model were revealed in this phase. These were expanded and synchronised with the model developed from the EFA theorem in the first phase. In order to validate the tentative risk assessment model, a case study approach was implemented with 4 real estate experts, the results insisted that this model was acceptably developed and this could be used in the real business case because of it covered on the major existing risks in this real estate industry. The final outcome of this research is a validated risk assessment model which forms the basis for assessing risks in the real estate projects which is closely aligned to an industry practice and can lead to an incremental improvement of risk assessment in the property industry.

Food security has become a key issue worldwide in recent years. According to the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affair (DEFRA) UK, the key components of food security are food availability, global resource sustainability, access, food chain resilience, household food security, safety and confidence of public towards food system. Each of these components has its own indicators which need to be monitored. Only a few studies had been made towards analysing food security and most of these studies are based on conventional data analysis methods such as the use of statistical techniques. In handling food security datasets such as crops yield, production, economy growth, household behaviour and others, where most of the data is imprecise, non-linear and uncertain in nature, it is better to handle the data using intelligent system (IS) techniques such as fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithm and hybrid systems, rather than conventional techniques. Therefore this thesis focuses on the modelling of food security using IS techniques, and a newly developed hybrid intelligent technique called a 2-stage hybrid (TSH) model, which is capable of making accurate predictions. This technique is evaluated by considering three applications of food security research areas which relate to each of the indicators in the DEFRA key food security components. In addition, another food security model was developed, called a food security risk assessment model. This can be used in assessing the level of risk for food security. The TSH model is constructed by using two key techniques; the Genetic Algorithm (GA) module and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) module, where these modules combine the global and local search, by optimizing the inputs of ANN in the first stage process and optimizing of weight and threshold of ANN, which is then used to remodel the ANN resulting in better prediction. In evaluating the performance of the TSH prediction model, a total of three datasets have been used, which relate to the food security area studied. These datasets involve the prediction of farm household output, prediction of cereal growth per capita as the food availability main indicators in food security component, and grain security assessment prediction. The TSH prediction model is benchmarked against five others techniques. Each of these five techniques uses an ANN as the prediction model. The models used are: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Multi-layered Perceptron-Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN), feature selection (FS) of GA-ANN, Optimized Weight and Threshold (OWTNN) and Sensitive Genetic Neural Optimization (SGNO). Each of the application datasets considered is used to show the capability of the TSH model in making effective predictions, and shows that the general performance of the model is better than the other benchmarked techniques. The research in this thesis can be considered as a stepping-stone towards developing other tools in food security modelling, in order to aid the safety of food security.

Risk has emerged as a dominant decision-making paradigm in UK environmental regulation. Much of its appeal rests on the assumption that it provides an objective way of judging the significance of environmental problems so that defensible and proportionate regulatory action can be taken. However, this assumption is challenged in the risk literature. Consideration of the risk assessment process shows that it requires methodological judgements and there is debate whether these are made on objective (scientific) or SUbjective grounds. The UK contaminated land regime provides an ideal case study to examine the way that these methodological judgements are made. The regime is explicitly risk-based, with decisions about the significance of contaminated land risks made in theory solely on the basis of technical risk assessments. This research examines the factors that influence key methodological jUdgements in contaminated land risk assessment and explores the extent to which they affect subsequent decisions about the significance of contaminated land risks. A survey of UK risk assessment practitioners shows that many of them consider risk assessment to be at least partly SUbjective, although opinions vary on the extent to which specific methodological steps are subjective. Interviews with risk assessors conclude that personal, commercial, technical and organisational factors influence their methodological choices. Similar interviews with local authority officers conclude that their ability to critically evaluate and influence these judgements is diminished by variable expertise, limited resources, inadequate regulatory guidance and low transparency of reporting. Cumulatively, these factors have a material bearing on the findings of an assessment. It is concluded that current contaminated land risk assessment is a social process in which non-scientific considerations significantly influence key judgements. It follows that risk assessment does not actually provide an objective basis for deciding the acceptability of contaminated land risks. This conclusion. has a wider significance for the use of risk assessment in environmental regulation.

The negative effects of hazardous substances and possible measures that can be taken are evaluated in the environmental risk analysis process, consisting of risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and natural variability are always present in this process. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate some tools as well as discuss the management of uncertainty and variability, as it is necessary to treat them both in a reliable and transparent way to gain regulatory acceptance in decision making. The catalytic effects of various metals on the formation of chlorinated aromatic compounds during the heating of fly ash were investigated (paper I). Copper showed a positive catalytic effect, while cobalt, chromium and vanadium showed a catalytic effect for degradation. Knowledge of the catalytic effects may facilitate the choice and design of combustion processes to decrease emissions, but it also provides valuable information to identify and characterize the hazard. Exposure factors of importance in risk assessment (physiological parameters, time use factors and food consumption) were collected and evaluated (paper II). Interindividual variability was characterized by mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and multiple percentiles, while uncertainty in these parameters was estimated with confidence intervals. How these statistical parameters can be applied was shown in two exposure assessments (papers III and IV). Probability bounds analysis was used as a probabilistic approach, which enables separate propagation of uncertainty and variability even in cases where the availability of data is limited. In paper III it was determined that the exposure cannot be expected to cause any negative health effects for recreational users of a public bathing place. Paper IV concluded that the uncertainty interval in the estimated exposure increased when accounting for possible changes in climate-sensitive model variables. Risk managers often need to rely on precaution and an increased uncertainty may therefore have implications for risk management decisions. Paper V focuses on risk management and a questionnaire was sent to employees at all Swedish County Administrative Boards working with contaminated land. It was concluded that the gender, age and work experience of the employees, as well as the funding source of the risk assessment, all have an impact on the reviewing of risk assessments. Gender was the most significant factor, and it also affected the perception of knowledge.
Negativa effekter orsakade av skadliga ämnen och möjliga åtgärder bedöms och utvärderas i en miljöriskanalys, som kan delas i riskbedömning, riskkommunikation och riskhantering. Osäkerhet som beror på kunskapsbrist samt naturlig variabilitet finns alltid närvarande i denna process. Syftet med avhandlingen är att utvärdera några tillvägagångssätt samt diskutera hur osäkerhet och variabilitet hanteras då det är nödvändigt att båda hanteras trovärdigt och transparent för att riskbedömningen ska vara användbar för beslutsfattande. Metallers katalytiska effekt på bildning av klorerade aromatiska ämnen under upphettning av flygaska undersöktes (artikel I). Koppar visade en positiv katalytisk effekt medan kobolt, krom och vanadin istället katalyserade nedbrytningen. Kunskap om katalytisk potential för bildning av skadliga ämnen är viktigt vid val och design av förbränningsprocesser för att minska utsläppen, men det är också ett exempel på hur en fara kan identifieras och karaktäriseras. Information om exponeringsfaktorer som är viktiga i riskbedömning (fysiologiska parametrar, tidsanvändning och livsmedelskonsumtion) samlades in och analyserades (artikel II). Interindividuell variabilitet karaktäriserades av medel, standardavvikelse, skevhet, kurtosis (toppighet) och multipla percentiler medan osäkerhet i dessa parametrar skattades med konfidensintervall. Hur dessa statistiska parametrar kan tillämpas i exponeringsbedömningar visas i artikel III och IV. Probability bounds analysis användes som probabilistisk metod, vilket gör det möjligt att separera osäkerhet och variabilitet i bedömningen även när tillgången på data är begränsad. Exponeringsbedömningen i artikel III visade att vid nu rådande föroreningshalter i sediment i en badsjö så medför inte bad någon hälsofara. I artikel IV visades att osäkerhetsintervallet i den skattade exponeringen ökar när hänsyn tas till förändringar i klimatkänsliga modellvariabler. Riskhanterare måste ta hänsyn till försiktighetsprincipen och en ökad osäkerhet kan därmed få konsekvenser för riskhanteringsbesluten. Artikel V fokuserar på riskhantering och en enkät skickades till alla anställda som arbetar med förorenad mark på länsstyrelserna i Sverige. Det konstaterades att anställdas kön, ålder och erfarenhet har en inverkan på granskningsprocessen av riskbedömningar. Kön var den mest signifikanta variabeln, vilken också påverkade perceptionen av kunskap. Skillnader i de anställdas svar kunde också ses beroende på om riskbedömningen finansierades av statliga bidrag eller av en ansvarig verksamhetsutövare.

The minerals industry often requires people to work in hazardous environments, these environments are constantly increasing in size and complexity as organisations look for new more cost-effective ways of extracting resources. Not only does this size and complexity bring with it additional safety concerns, the introduction of new legislation has placed the responsibility of employee safety with the organisation. Safety has become an important consideration, where once it might have been viewed as costly and counterproductive, organisations are now seeking to gain competitive advantage in this area. Two key areas of a successful safety management programme are risk assessment and training. These are important in designing systems and environments that are as safe as possible and in educating and training personnel to operate safely within those environments. Virtual Reality (VR) technology is one tool that has been applied successfully to the training requirements across a wide range of industries. In the past two years there is evidence to show that VR technology is becoming more widely used, partly due to the reduced cost and a reduction in the perceived technological complexity. As the cost of computing falls and the fidelity of the virtual worlds increases, VR is considered a viable option for a number of applications. Two prototype VR systems were designed and built. The first, a risk visualisation system, enhances a virtual environment with a risk-based overlay. The relationships between dangerous areas and equipment can be visualised in 3D. It also provides a framework for evaluating the risk programmatically at an arbitrary location. The second is a surface mine simulator that uses a hazard identification system as a tool to aid the training of haul truck operators in surface mine. This system includes a world construction tool that allows users to import and prepare the terrain, construct the virtual world, and specify any hazards. The training system can evaluate the performance of a trainee in the virtual world using a simple scoring algorithm.

Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil
The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.
O contínuo crescimento da população mundial tem levado a uma massificação dos centros urbanos, frequentemente localizados em áreas propensas a desastres naturais, de entre os quais os sismos. Consequentemente, e apesar dos avanços do conhecimento no domínio da modelação de catástrofes naturais e das ações de mitigação do risco, o número de fatalidades continua a aumentar e, recentemente, perdas económicas sem precedentes têm vindo a ser registadas. No presente trabalho, são investigados vários aspetos da engenharia sísmica e sismologia, e é desenvolvido como caso de estudo Portugal continental. A avaliação rigorosa do risco sísmico é um instrumento fundamental para a redução do número de vítimas e de danos como consequência dos eventos sísmicos. Este reconhecimento despoletou o desenvolvimento de ferramentas numéricas e de software para o cálculo do risco. No presente trabalho, uma plataforma open-source para o cálculo de perigosidade e risco sísmico foi desenvolvida, que permite calcular a distribuição das perdas e danos para um cenário específico da ação sísmica (evento determinístico), ou das perdas acumuladas devidas a todos os eventos sísmicos que podem ocorrer numa determinada região e num dado período de tempo. Como resultado deste trabalho foi desenvolvido um software, que é disponibilizado a qualquer indivíduo ou instituição. A determinação do risco sísmico depende principalmente de três componentes: perigosidade sísmica, exposição e vulnerabilidade. A última componente assume particular importância, na medida em que uma eventual intervenção ao nível do reforço estrutural pode ter influência direta na redução do risco sísmico associado. O recurso a metodologias analíticas é fundamental para a avaliação da vulnerabilidade estrutural, particularmente em regiões onde a informação sobre danos em edifícios após sismos é escassa ou inexistente. Neste trabalho foram analisadas várias metodologias conhecidas, discutindo-se a eficiência e rigor dos vários métodos, nomeadamente no respeitante à relação entre precisão e esforço computacional exigido. Complementarmente é proposta uma abordagem simplificada que permite o cálculo expedito de curvas de fragilidade. É ainda proposto um modelo de vulnerabilidade para edifícios de betão armado em Portugal, utilizando dados recolhidos na análise de centenas de projetos de edifícios existentes. Foi adotada uma abordagem analítica, baseada em análises não-lineares dinâmicas, que permitiu avaliar a influência de vários parâmetros, nomeadamente a influência dos critérios na definição do dano ou o tipo de medida de intensidade usada na representação da ação sísmica. É apresentada uma revisão abrangente dos estudos e contributos anteriores de outros autores que contribuíram para a compreensão da perigosidade e risco sísmico em Portugal. Neste estudo, para o cálculo da perigosidade sísmica em Portugal continental foi usado um modelo disponível de zonas sismogénicas, e modelos de atenuação recentemente propostos. Estes resultados foram combinados com dados provenientes do recente Recenseamento Geral, de 2011, e com o modelo de vulnerabilidade desenvolvido neste trabalho, obtendo-se mapas de perdas económicas para um período de retorno da ação de 475 anos. A desagregação para as diferentes tipologias construtivas estudadas permitiu aferir quais os tipos de construção poderão ter maior impacto nas perdas económicas totais num eventual evento sísmico.
La crescita esponenziale della popolazione mondiale ha portato a un aumento di insediamenti spesso localizzati in aree propense a disastri naturali, tra cui terremoti. Di conseguenza, nonostante gli importanti avanzamenti nel campo della modellazione delle catastrofi naturali e nelle azioni di mitigazione del rischio, le perdite umane complessive sono continuate a crescere e sono state registrate perdite economiche senza precedenti. Nel lavoro di ricerca presentato di seguito, varie aree dell’ingegneria sismica e della sismologia sono investigate a fondo e applicate come caso studio al Portogallo continentale. La definizione del rischio sismico è un punto critico nella riduzione di vittime e danni dovuti a eventi sismici. Il riconoscimento di tale importanza ha portato a una rapida crescita della richiesta di strumenti e software accurati, affidabili e flessibili. Nel presente lavoro è stata sviluppata una piattaforma open-source per la definizione della pericolosità e del rischio sismico. Questo software è capace di calcolare la distribuzione di perdite o danni per un determinato scenario sismico (evento deterministico) o le perdite dovute a tutti i possibili eventi sismici che potrebbero accadere in una regione in un dato intervallo di tempo. Questo risultato è stato perseguito seguendo una filosofia aperta e trasparente e quindi è disponibile a qualsiasi individuo o istituzione. La stima del rischio sismico dipende soprattutto da tre componenti: la pericolosità sismica, la esposizione e la vulnerabilità. L’ultima componente assume speciale importanza, poiché intervenendo con soluzioni appropriate di adeguamento, è possibile far diminuire direttamente il rischio sismico. L’utilizzo di metodologie analitiche nella definizione della vulnerabilità delle strutture è fondamentale particolarmente in regioni dove potrebbero non essere disponibili informazioni sul danno a edifici conseguente un terremoto. Numerose metodologie tra le più comuni sono state analizzate, e si è concluso su quale metodo può offrire un equilibrio ottimale tra accuratezza dei risultati e impegno computazionale. Inoltre si propone un approccio semplificato a partire dalla metodologia di determinazione delle perdite sismiche basata sugli spostamenti (DBELA), che permette di derivare velocemente curve di fragilità, considerando un ampio spettro di incertezze. Si propone un nuovo modello di vulnerabilità per edifici in cemento armato in Portogallo, usando informazioni statistiche raccolte da centinaia di edifici reali. Si è utilizzato un approccio analitico basato su analisi dinamiche non lineari e si è investigato sull’impatto di un gruppo di parametri chiave, tra cui i criteri di definizione dello stato di danno e il tipo di misura di intensità scelta. É presentata un’ampia revisione di studi precedenti che hanno contribuito alla comprensione della pericolosità sismica e del rischio per il Portogallo. Per calcolare la pericolosità sismica probabilistica sull’intero territorio si è fatto uso di un modello esistente di fonti sismiche con modelli di attenuazione proposti recentemente. Questi ultimi risultati sono stati combinati con informazioni dal Censimento degli Edifici del 2011 e il suddetto modello di vulnerabilità per stimare mappe di perdite economiche per un periodo di ritorno di 475 anni. Le perdite sono state disaggregate per le diverse tipologie di edifici e sono state riportate conclusioni sul tipo di costruzione più vulnerabile all’attività sismica.

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Bachelors
Arts and Sciences
Political Science

This research has evaluated the rules, guidelines and regulations related to ship vibrations. A historical failure data analysis is carried out to identify associated components, equipment and the areas of defects related to ship vibration problems. Ship Hull Vibration (SHV) is recognised as a major problem onboard ships and the propulsion system is identified as the major contributor to SHV. The current status of ship vibrations is reviewed and possible sources which create SHV are recognised. The major problems identified in this research are associated with risk modelling under circumstances where high levels of uncertainty exist. Following the identification of research needs, this PhD thesis has developed several analytical models for the application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). Such mode quently demonstrated by their corresponding case sti vith regard to application of FSA for SHV modelling. Firstly, in this research a generic SHV model is constructed for the purpose of risk estimation based on the identified hazards. The hazards include the SHV effects induced by ship design criteria, failure of components, and different patterns associated with the ship propulsion system (propeller system and machinery) as the major contributors to SHV. Then risk estimation bn is carried out utilising Evidential Reasoning (ER) and a fuzzy rule base. Secondly, ship selection (decision making) is investigated to to select the best ship design based on the risk estimation results of SHV. The risk estimation is carried out using ER, a fuzzy rule base and continuous fuzzy sets. The best ship design is selected by taking into account an ER-based utility ranking approach. Thirdly, combining discrete fuzzy sets and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) risk estimation is conducted in terms of four risk parameters to select the major causes of component failure and then SHV.

Doutoramento em Arquitetura Paisagista - Instituto Superior de Agronomia
One of the most complex issues that modern society is facing is landscape transformation, its fragmentation and ecological simplification, resulting in loss of biodiversity and a decline in ecosystems’ quality. Recently, the concept and establishment of Ecological Networks (EN) have been seen as a solution towards nature conservation strategies targeting biodiversity and ecological connectivity, (re)focusing on the ecosystem approach and the “continuum naturale”. The research in this dissertation aims to clarify the potential of EN in the context of landscape planning and its importance and function within the Green Infrastructure (GI) concept, emerging from EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020, as a fundamental strategically connected infrastructure of abiotic and biotic systems underlying the provision of multiple functions valuable to society. It also addresses the lack of mapping at the national level of ecological systems. The main research objectives are: 1) To develop a methodology to map the National Ecological Network (NEN) for mainland Portugal and 2) To develop a Land Morphology (LM) mapping method at the national level. LM classifies landforms according to their hydrological position in the watershed and represents a helpful evaluation tool for modelling natural systems. This thesis contributes to the understanding of: i) the NEN as a spatial network that defines areas of existing and potential ecological connectivity at various scales which provides the physical and biological conditions necessary to maintain or restore landscape’ ecological functions; ii) the importance of NEN as an ecologically based tool towards a more sustainable landscape planning, strengthening the notions of connectivity and multi-functionality of landscape; iii) the morphological approach to map Portuguese landforms as valuable tool to assist policy makers and planners in taking decisions based on a more thorough analysis of land value and its ecological functions; and iv) Mapping the wet system at national level may have an impact on clarifying concepts related to water resources and can be used as a preliminary delimitation of floodplains and potential flood risk areas
N/A

Methods and techniques for environmental impact assessment (EIA) and development of land use management options are described. The methods and techniques have specific application in Defence estate management, and general application in other areas of land use assessment and management. The EIA methodology includes techniques for land cover and soil classification, land capability and suitability assessment. The biophysical classifications and assessment techniques are based on the application of various para and non- parametric approaches. The study area for the application of the EIA methods and techniques was the Singleton Training Area (STA) in the Hunter Valley of central New South Wales. Defence estates are required to provide a wide range of terrain and other environmental conditions to support the development of combat related tactics. The maintenance of these areas for sustainable use is fundamental in achieving both military and land use management objectives. The EIA of the STA provided a means of testing the efficiency of the methods and techniques developed in this thesis. The baseline resource inventory data used in the EIA includes land cover and vegetation maps derived from satellite digital data and soils maps derived from both conventional methods and airborne gammaradiation data. This information, together with the military land use requirements provided the basis for land capability and suitability assessment, and development of land use management options.

Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food safety risk assessment models are presented in this paper. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods and one graphical method, are identified. Application of these methods was also illustrated with the examples from various fields. These methods were compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement, time requirement, and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. No one method is clearly best for food safety risk models. In general, the use of two or more methods may be needed to increase confidence on the rank ordering of key inputs.To identify specific issues with respect to the application to a typical food safety risk model, the sensitivity analysis methods were applied to the risk assessment model of the public health impact of vibrio Parahaemolyticus (the Vp model). The Vp model was modified so that proper sensitivity analysis can be done on independent inputs. The results of the sensitivity analyses were interpreted and discussed in detail. The rank ordering of key inputs was reasonably similar for most of the methods. For example, five of the seven methods ranked water temperature, the number of oysters per meal, and a new input IUR in the top three. Time on water and an input IG were identified as the least important inputs by six methods.

碩士
國立屏東科技大學
環境工程與科學系
92
This research concentrates on screening of both organic and inorganic pollutant indicators for land application of sludge. The results showed that there were 46 organic pollutant indicators covered volatile organic and semi-volatile organic compounds, pesticides and other toxic compounds. Screening scores ranged from 21 the highest to 2 the lowest. The order ranked by screening score was aldrin, pentacholorophenol, toxaphene, DDT, polychlorinated biphenyls, benzene, hexachlorobenzene, heptachlor, dieldrin, endrin, trichloroethylene, lindane, chlordane, carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, 1,2-dichloroethane. There were 10 inorganic pollutant indicators that the major pollutants were heavy metals and their screening score ranged from 21 to 7. The order was cadmium, mercury, lead, chromium, arsenic, nickel, scandium, copper, silver and zinc. The higher the screening score was, the more attention-getting they were by domestic and foreign organization. The lower screening score showed the pollutants were only considered by either domestic or foreign organization. The results also showed that the major pollutant indicators and their respective maximum allowable concentration limit of sludge application in land were listed as follows, arsenic 13.23 mg/kg DW, cadmium 2.06 mg/kg DW, mercury 0.34 mg/kg DW, lead 14.03 mg/kg DW, silver 0.39mg/kg DW, aldrin 0.03 mg/kg DW, benzene 0.005 mg/kg DW, chlordane 0.04 mg/kg DW, dieldrin 0.005 mg/kg DW, lindane 0.09 mg/kg DW, 1,1,2-trihloroethane 1.28 mg/kg DW, toxaphene 1.36mg/kg DW, polychlorinated biphenyls 4.72 mg/kg DW, 2,3,7,8-TCDD 5.01 mg/kg DW. The results can provide some useful references to the authorities in the establishment of guideline on sludge land application, the pollutant indicators and their concentration limit in soil that will reduce hazardous risks caused by land application of sludge. The method of screening and risking assessment of pollutant indicators established by the research will enhance the policy faith of general public people and facilitate the communication between the public and government. Furthermore, through the good management of sludge application to land will be beneficial to the protection of natural environment and to the goal of sustainable land development.

碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
106
Taiwan is surrounded by sea, and the plain area is small. With the increase of population, the demand for land development increases so much that the conditions of land development in the inland plain area have reached saturation. In addition to the opening of coastal defense in recent years, coastal zone (shore land area and nearshore area) has become an indispensable space. It makes the use of coastal zone more diverse. In particular, marine area is more concerned when national spatial land is developed in the future. The prevention of coastal disaster is extremely important under the concept of sustainable development and integrated coastal zone management. In the past, the risk assessment of marine area has focused on single disaster or single type of use behavior in the domestic and foreign countries. This study is adopted the operational definition of disaster risk of UNDRO in 1979 and considers the overall use and the environment in nearshore area. In order to highlight the difference of risk level caused by the difference use in nearshore area, 200m x 200m digital grids are used to evaluate the risk level of hazard and vulnerability in nearshore area of Taiwan. This study explores risk level caused by existing legal use when the typhoon which marine area of Taiwan often faces comes. It is expected that the resources and utilization of marine area can achieve the goal of sustainable development. Therefore, the selection of vulnerability indicators is based on the connotation of sustainable development: social, economic, environmental, and add the resilience as marine economic scale, environmental sensitive area, marine geology, marine depth, and offshore distance. Pareto Ranking Method and Entropy Method are adopted to establish the vulnerability index rank. Finally, this study used risk matrix to combine the level of hazard and vulnerability, and the geographic information system (GIS) is used to display the risk map of coastal area. Finally, the local risk assessment model of hazard and vulnerability in the coastal area is established. From the results of risk assessment in nearshore area, because the disaster potential caused by typhoon waves during the 100-year return period, some of nearshore areas have higher risk levels under the effect of typhoon waves during the 100-year return period. The risk levels in nearshore areas of Ilan and Hualien are high due to the larger impact of typhoon waves, the multi-use that its economic scale is large with compared to a single use, and the harsh environment in nearshore areas of Ilan and Hualien. In recently, the “Marine Resource Zones” of “National Land Spatial Planning Act” proposed by Construction and Planning Agency Ministry of the Interior in 2016 just considers the compatibility or exclusiveness of the existing legal use of marine area and doesn’t take into account the factors such as the marine environment and risk level. Therefore, the results of this study that risk level of nearshore area could be provided as the base for designation of Marine Resource Zones in the future, and proposes new plans for the designation condition of Marine Resource Zones. It could be provided the central government agency with reference for the planning and management of national spatial land.

碩士
國立中央大學
土木工程學系
103
During drought periods, the shortage of water resource causes economic losses as well as the domestic water useage. The impact of droughts can be reduced by applying short-term climate forecasts. The spring land fallow is an important strategy to reduce the impacts of water shortage on both industrial and domestic water usages. Therefore, the timing of the fallow decision becomes an important issue of the water management during droughts. In this study, the weather data is derived from meteorological synthesis mode and the data of the seasonal climate forecast form Central Weather Bureau. Then, input the weather data into the hydrological models to simulate the inflow of the Shihmen Reservoir watershed. Use system dynamics simulation model to simulate the water of supply and demand and the water level of reservoir. Combine the level of reservoir with historical exceedance probability inflow to calculate the shortage rate of probability agricultural water. The forecast uncertainty is estimated by using Bayesian theorem with accuracy of weather forecast. We investiage the effect of seasonal forcast data on the fallow decision based on three scenarios: no forecast, 100% accurate forecast and forecast with uncertainty. The result displays that the risk of decision failure in three scenarios tends to decrease with the delay of decision. The benefit of accurate forecast on the decision of fallow is significant. It can reduce the risk of the decision failure. However, the decrease of the risk of decision failure under forecast with uncertainty is insignificant because of the high uncertainty of itself.

碩士
國立臺北教育大學
社會與區域發展學系碩士班
103
Lands are important resources for social and economic development. Land pollution risks also increase due to urbanization and industrialization. This study supposes that land pollution risks are comprehensively influenced by various pollution functions of soil and groundwater pollution sites and potential pollution sources on located and nearby lands, social and economic activities on the lands, and management measures. However, many related researches mainly aiming to assessing pollution potentials or health and ecology risks of individual pollution source cannot completely consider the above influences based on lands, and therefore cannot adequately describe land pollution risks. The purpose of this study is to develop a risk assessment methodology of land pollution. This study applies systems thinking and systems analysis to conclude the complicated relationships among the land pollution mechanism and management measures based on the management-oriented (strategic planning) concept. A conceptual management framework of land pollution risks is then identified. A conceptual system of land pollution risk assessment is defined based on this framework. Land grids are defined as sub-systems and used to consider the comprehensive functions of pollution sites and potential pollution sources on related grids when lands are treated as the cores. The components, attributes, and relationships are then identified. A risk assessment framework of land pollutions is then developed, involving 3 stages and 6 aspects (Occurrence-Control, Exposure-Reduction, and Vulnerability-Adaptation). Assessment items, indicators, and factors in each aspect are devised based on the above components and attributes, and the total numbers are 14, 30, and 72, respectively. Luzhu District of Taoyuan City is used as a case to assess its land pollution risks. Five grids of high risk level (60.01~80) which occupy 0.5% of all grids are all influenced by the groundwater pollution sites in these grids and their nearby grids. Assessment values of Occurrence, Exposure, and Vulnerability aspects in pollution mechanism are higher and risk decreasing capabilities of Control, Reduction, and Adaptation aspects are lower in these grids. Risk management strategies of pollution sites, potential pollution sources, and human society in grid #352, which is assessed as high risk level, are simultaneously generated based on the assessment indicator values of Control, Reduction, and Adaptation aspects. Suggestions on future land uses in grid #352 for decreasing assessment values of Occurrence, Exposure, and Vulnerability aspects are also proposed. Estimated risk of grid #352 reduces 14% if the proposed strategies are implemented. Research results show that the proposed methodology can be used to consider the pollution mechanism and management measures systematically. Land pollution risks caused by pollution sites and potential pollution sources in the nearby grids can be simultaneously assessed. Effective management strategies for decreasing risks can be also generated using the proposed methodology, which is expected to be a reference for integrated management of land pollution risks by the authorities of land pollution, land use, industry.

碩士
逢甲大學
土地管理研究所
83
The main goal to appraise the value of a land is to be accepted by most people for land assessment. However, the valuation of land is always different from the goal of land assessment. In public sector,to assess the value of a lot accurately is to compensate for those lands being confiscated on the demend of public land uses or to persume the fairness of a society. In the operation of land assessment, there are tens of thousands of lots in urban, and they must cost very much to assess the value of lots by mass artificial operatings every year and units of workings are also heavy for each one. It is necessary to utilize the capability of fast-computing and mass data- storing of a computer on the valuation of land to assist the artificial operating for the precision and the reasonability of the assessed value.For example, to compute the present value. The other, it is essential to combine land assessment approaches with related property database by applying the capability of data-analyzing and retrieving from a database of G.I.S. Likewise,it would help estimating the value of a lot for assessors to integrate the capability of retrieving the knowledge base, reasoning the result by facts, and explaining the procedures for building the knowledge base for land assessment and related laws. We would take the street value approach to assess the value of a lot in urban, which the street value is to give the street price by means of lots being set up standard depth, facing specified street but having the same accessibility, and use the street value to mutiply the differential depth- indexed table to get the value of lots which faces the same street.So, the aim of the study is to simplify the proceedings of artificial operation and to improve the fairness and effectiveness in land assessment by integrating expert system with G.I.S to be applied to valuing mass lots in urban.

碩士
中原大學
土木工程研究所
97
Disaster caused by debris flow is a very serious issue in Taiwan, and current technology standard of typhoon is still incapable of predicting the follow-up rainfall accurately. It would result in not only the limited efficacy of the advanced warning system, but also increasing the frequency of debris flow consequently since the inaccuracy of current technology standard of typhoon has not been improved. Therefore, it could be stated that the research in the advanced warning system of debris flow is a critical issue to study in Taiwan. Due to the uncertainty of both hydrological and geological factors of debris flow, fuzzy theory would be adopted in this research since fuzzy theory is effective to analyze the uncertainty issues. A model based on fuzzy theory would be established in this study in order to estimate the risk degree of debris flow. There are three factors, the mean slope, the form factor of basin and the geologic character, which would be selected as latency factors. Rainfall intensity and the amount of accumulated rainfall would be selected as stimulating factors. The Analytic Hierarchy Process would be adopted to determine the weights among those factors; and the fuzzy Synthetic decision method would be utilized to estimate the risk degree of debris flow. After the analysis of the risk degree of debris flow, a “rainfall-runoff” model would be build to predict the scale of debris flow by using Artificial Neural Network. Finally, the risk assessment would be proceeded by applying the concept of risk, the probability and the scale of debris flow would be taken into consideration in this part as well.

博士
國立臺灣大學
生醫電子與資訊學研究所
104
The management of chronic diseases has become the most common medical concerns around the world. The aims of this dissertation are to further evaluate the relative risk and conduct the applications of telehealthcare in chronic diseases. First, in terms of the change of glucose metabolism in patients with acute pancreatitis and patients with total gastrectomy and the survival of prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations, population-based cohort retrospective studies based on the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) using data mining technologies showed that the burden of comorbidities has a significant role in patients with chronic diseases, and should be carefully evaluated and managed. On　the　other　hand,　the experimental results showed that total gastrectomy contributes to improved glucose metabolism in patients with total gastrectomy. Most importantly, patients　without　diabetes　but　who　had　total gastrectomy　had lower rates of newly diagnosed diabetes after total gastrectomy compared with the general population as assessed by control-to-case analysis. In an attempt to provide ubiquitous telehealthcare for patients with chronic disease, a telesurveillance system has been implemented with continuous biometric monitoring and the automatic alarm mechanism using information and communication technologies. The system can analyze synchronous data to detect deterioration at an early stage through long-term health monitoring and inform case managers immediately using instant biometrics monitors and automatic alarm mechanisms. Besides, the system allows users to derive electronic medical records (EMRs) from the hospital information systems using web services. Most importantly, the augmentation service of knowledge-based electrocardiogram interpretation based on the support vector machine is available to assist physicians doing decision-making in clinical practice. The experimental results showed that the recognition classifiers yielded 88.4% accuracy, 94.1% sensitivity, and 87.7% specificity in atrial fibrillation and 86.1% accuracy, 82.7% sensitivity, and 86.3% specificity in ventricular premature contraction, respectively. As of December 31, 2015, the telehealthcare program has served 2,761 patients, derived and monitored 1,716,256 physical data, and performed 268,278 interviews to offer total care to patients. Notably, the program provides feedback within four minutes of the patient measuring biometric data. The telecare service received a high degree of support (95.8 %) from the users. Besides, the randomized controlled trial aimed to investigate the effectiveness of telemonitoring in improving COPD patient outcome. During the follow-up period, time to first re-admission for COPD exacerbation was significantly increased in the telemonitoring group than in the usual care group. Telemonitoring was also associated with a reduced number of all-cause re-admissions and emergency room visits. In conclusion, both of medical staffs and patients could derive benefit health care from the telehealthcare service in many respects.

碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
107
Taiwan is surrounded by the ocean and the plain area is small. With the population growth in the past, the demand for land development is increasing. To achieve the balance between the land utilization and demands, it must develop more slope lands. In addition, because of the climate change in recent year, the extreme rainfall frequently happened, such as rainfall strength and duration. Moreover, it caused the collapse of Taiwan’s mountainous areas to increase the risk of neighboring slope communities and roads. In the past, domestic and foreign research focused on the hazard for slope land disasters, and less risk assessment of the overall risk of slope disasters. Therefore, this study is adopted a definition of disaster risk is function of hazard and vulnerability by the UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). In addition to the spatial distribution of slope disaster risk, the research scale uses village level to explore the risk of shallow collapse in the slopes of Keelung City. In this study, the hydrological model - topographical index model of the topographical characteristics of the basin area is used to calculate the relationship between the topography and the groundwater level. And the stability analysis of the infinite slope is used to investigate the influence of different groundwater level heights on the slope land stability of the study area. The slope land collapse factor is summarized as the hazard aspect of the study. Meanwhile, the research area is affected by the vulnerability of the slope land disaster, with the social, economic, environmental, physical aspects, and the resilience is added to vulnerability index. Vulnerability factors such as vulnerable population, population density, road density, disaster record, household income, disaster temporary shelters were selected. The vulnerability analysis was performed using the Pareto Ranking method. The calculated hazard map and the vulnerability map are combined with the risk matrix to evaluate the slope land risk level and use the Geographic Information System (GIS) to display the risk map. Finally, the risk assessment model for shallow collapse disasters on slope land is established. The risk assessment of shallow collapse on slope land shows that most of the villages are concentrated in the metropolitan area of Renai and Zhongzheng District in Keelung City, while others are in Qidu, Zhongshan and Anle District in the face of the impact of sloping land disasters. Due to their vulnerability are larger than other area, which leads to the situation that the risk level of these villages is "high" to "very high". This study explores the risk of shallow collapse on slope land from the perspective of risk. Compared with the past, it only discusses the hazard orientation of slope land, and can better reflect the relative risk each region. It can effectively focus on high-risk areas for decision-making units in regional risk management.

碩士
國立中興大學
園藝學系所
106
The Analytical Network Procedure (ANP) has been widely used in the field of sociology and management science; however, it has not been fully applied in studying land use change. This thesis attempts to use the ANP method to identify and evaluate the driving factors of land use change and to determine appropriate management strategies. First, the impact factors of land use change in central Taiwan were identified by literature review and expert interviews. Based on this, a draft ANP expert questionnaire for evaluating land use management was developed. The formal version questionnaire was finalized after pilot studies and revision. A total of 14 scholars were selected as interviewees. The background and expertise of them includes urban planning, landscape change, land planning and design, and applications of geographic information system, etc. After the first-round survey, the consistency of answers would be checked. The questionnaire with inconsistent responses would be sent for a second-round review in order to performing revision.. Totalvalid questionnaires were 10 samples. The Super Decision analysis software was applied to analyze data collected by questionnaires. The results showed that among the 11 driving factors of land use change, the main factors affecting the growing patterns of rice paddy field include soil organic matter (0.16521), land subsidence (0.14465) and soil fertility (0.14452). The location of dryland is mainly affected by soil organic matter (0.17099), land subsidence (0.14317) and distance to river or irrigation system (0.12822). The main influence on the distribution of forest land is the slope (0.16764), elevation (0.15237), and distance from the river irrigation channel (0.15003). How the water distributes could be influence by following factors, which are distance to river or irrigation system (0.18800), land subsidence (0.15515) and soil organic matter (0.15031). Vacant land is commonly affected by three factors: land subsidence (0.16931), slope (0.14006), and distance to urban planning area (0.10880). Regarding to the proper management strategies for the six land use types, 10 experts highly recommended following strategies, which are: (1) it is necessary to preserve prime farmlands, prime and fine dry fields; (2) development of newly buildings should be restricted no matter in urbans, industrial zones, and rural areas; (3) Land use strategies such as conserving native forests and national forest lands should be promoted; (4) Also, aqua culture area should avoid future expansion. Results of applying weights coefficients of different drivers onto the suitability assessment of six land use types showed that the suitability ditribution for paddy field (95.45%), dry land (96.46%) and vacant land (99.02%) were the highest, followed by land construction (89.79%) and forest land (81.41%). Water (46.51%) displayed the lowest suitability. Finally, the overall land use distribution simulation was carried out. The results of the comparison with the 2015 land use distribution map showed that the simulation of paddy field, dry land, forest land and idle land was higher, and the overall accuracy was 74.31%.

碩士
國立中央大學
財務金融學系碩士在職專班
95
More and more attention is being drawn to credit risk related issues in recent years. For banks, it is of critical and growing importance to establish credit risk models that can raise alarms with accuracy. This study begins with the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) which proposes to allow banks to utilize the Internal Ratings-Based Approach (IRB). It is used to demonstrate that credit risk required capital in credit risk management for banks with respect to corporate lending credits will vary by valuation method. As a result, banks are encouraged to establish internal assessment systems. Introduction on the evolution of credit risk assessment method will be made as well as on the four major credit risk models in practice. And finally, this study will use the Merton model as an example to illustrate the significance of corporate values. A forecast sample will be selected from the listed companies in Taiwan to verify the forewarning capacity of the option model. Empirical results from this study show that performance of the Merton model in forewarning for the selected 60 listed companies (including matched samples) does not meet the expectation. However, the model serves well in verifying credit risk forecasting models by case analysis.