Academic literature on the topic 'Labor supply – Effect of education on – Canada'

This study examines the economic and welfare effects of raising the number of high-skilled immigrants in Canada. It uses a life-cycle applied general equilibrium model with endogenous time allocation decisions between work, education, and leisure. According to the simulation results, raising the number of high-skilled immigrants would boost productive capacity and labour productivity but could lower real GDP per capita. In addition, by raising the supply of high-skilled workers, more high-skilled immigrants would reduce the skill premium and the return to human capital. This in turn would lower incentives for young adults to invest in human capital and have a dampening effect on the domestic supply of skilled workers. Finally, it is found that more high-skilled immigrants would be welfare enhancing for medium- and low-skilled workers but welfare decreasing for high-skilled workers.

Why do high-skilled Canadian immigrants lag behind their US counterparts in labor-market outcomes, despite Canada’s merit-based immigration selection system and more integrative context? This article investigates a mismatch between immigrants’ education and occupations, operationalized by overeducation, as an explanation. Using comparable data and three measures of overeducation, we find that university-educated immigrant workers in Canada are consistently much more likely to be overeducated than their US peers and that the immigrant–native gap in the overeducation rate is remarkably higher in Canada than in the United States. This article further examines how the cross-national differences are related to labor-market structures and selection mechanisms for immigrants. Whereas labor-market demand reduces the likelihood of immigrant overeducation in both countries, the role of supply-side factors varies: a higher supply of university-educated immigrants is positively associated with the likelihood of overeducation in Canada, but not in the United States, pointing to an oversupply of high-skilled immigrants relative to Canada’s smaller economy. Also, in Canada the overeducation rate is significantly lower for immigrants who came through employer selection (i.e., those who worked in Canada before obtaining permanent residence) than for those admitted directly from abroad through the point system. Overall, the findings suggest that a merit-based immigration system likely works better when it takes into consideration domestic labor-market demand and the role of employer selection.

Abstract We examine the optimal tax and education policy in the case of a dual income tax. Incorporating an educational sector and endogenous capital taxation, we show that the results in Nielsen and Sørensen’s study are vulnerable with respect to assumptions on the elasticity of unskilled labor supply. Tax progressivity results residually, whereas educational policy guarantees an optimal tax wedge on, but not necessarily efficiency in, educational investment. The less elastic are the unobservable educational investment and skilled labor (the latter relative to unskilled labor supply), and the more educational policy cares about the skilled labor supply, the more progressive the tax system will be. Education will be subsidized on a net basis if the complementarity effect on the skilled labor supply is strong and important; however, there is also an offsetting substitutability effect of the unskilled labor supply at play.

the phenomenon of labor in Indonesian is that the workforce in increasing but there are few opportunities for employment. This will cause unemployment and many unemployment will effect the economy. Study aims to determine the impact of population growth , wages, and education on labor supply in Indonesia. This research used panel data from 2013 to 2018 in 34 provinces in Indonesia and analysis used panel data regression with FEM method. The results of the study found that; 1) population growth hasn’t impact on the labor supply in Indonesia. (2) Wages hasn’t impact on labor supply in Indonesia. (3) education has an impact on the labor supply in Indonesia.

We study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of Swedish lottery players. Winning a lottery prize modestly reduces earnings, with the reduction being immediate, persistent, and quite similar by age, education, and sex. A calibrated dynamic model implies lifetime marginal propensities to earn out of unearned income from −0.17 at age 20 to −0.04 at age 60, and labor supply elasticities in the lower range of previously reported estimates. The earnings response is stronger for winners than their spouses, which is inconsistent with unitary household labor supply models. (JEL D14, J22, J31)

«... Devising a workable manpower plan... at best is an art, still in its infancy. Many assumptions and informed judgment are necessary to compensate for gaps in data. But if planning of any sort were delayed until our data were complete and a fool-proof methodology were developed, no forecasts of educational needs would ever be made. The enormous outlays on education today and in the future demand that we at least make an attempt to determine how we can best allocate these expenditures to meet our needs efficiently. As additional data become available and greater experience is gained in the techniques of manpower planning, many of the difficulties facing us will be overcome. Manpower forecasting although not an ideal approach to rational development of our educational resources at least provides a framework of additional required data that no other currently-known method offers ». 1 We are attempting to calculate « manpower coefficients » or if you wish, a fraction whose numerator is man-years of experienced labour by occupation group, and whose denominator is output by industry group. In other words, we shall estimate the number of man-years of labour of different occupation groups required to produce $1,000.00 of output in selected industries in Nova Scotia, in 1960-61. The fraction is no more and no less than an estimate of labour productivity. We have asked the Dominion Bureau of Statistics to provide a tabulation containing the experienced labour force in 1961, cross-classified, 1) by sex, 2) by class of worker (wage and salary earners, unpaid family workers, own business operators), 3) by industry group (54), 4) by occupation group (64), 5) by earnings group, 6) by years of schooling, 7) by weeks worked, 8) by hours per week, 9) by age group. We shall prepare a 64 (row) by 54 (column) matrix, one column for each industry group and one row for each occupation group. Each cell will contain a fraction which when applied to a forecast of gross value of output by industry will provide an estimate of the number of man-years of labour required to produce that output. If we sum across the rows we obtain the total demand for man-years of labour for each of occupation groups. I shall dispense with a discussion of the majority of the assumptions, limitations and peculiarities of the method, for these may be found in the report mentioned above. To obtain the numerator of our fraction (man-years of experienced labour force), we weighted bodies (the experienced labour force) by two fractions; one for weeks worked and one for hours worked. This is particularly important in Nova Scotia because of seasonal operations. If we found a person who had worked 26 out of the 52 weeks proceeding the 1961 levels, and when he worked, worked the model hours in his occupation groups, we counted him as 1/2 a man-year of labour. One facet of the study which may interest individuals involved in training, retraining and education concerns the occupation groups we formed. We have grouped the 273 Census occupations of the 1961 Census into 64 occupation groups. We formed broad groups of occupations within which we believe workers are substitutable, transferable and interchangeable. This was done among other reasons because it is quite common to find workers with the same type of training in different occupations, or to put it differently because workers with one type of preparation often go into different kinds of jobs. This approach also reflects a belief that it is more effective to train workers in families of related skills rather than in specific skills in preparation for the labour market. Another reason is that Census occupation definitions often leave much to be desired. We have therefore formed 64 occupation groups which are in many respects similar to Dunlop's « job clusters » and Scoville « job families » which are defined as groups of job classifications limited by technology, administration and social custom or « jobs linked by materials used, equipment used and functions performed ». We have in effect formed 44 groups of occupations on the basis of affinity in functions and another 19 (one group, the 64th is for unpaid family workers) which segregate superior from intermediate from unskilled workers in many of these groups of occupations. We arrived at the latter by using earnings and education criteria. The reason for doing so is that workers with very different levels of skill were placed together in one Census occupation group (for example, many « engineers » in Nova Scotia have no secondary school training and very low incomes according to the 1961 Census; apparently many were promoted by their wives when the Census enumerator came). In many cases, we required that the worker meet either the earnings criterion or the education criterion depending upon the occupation group, and this among other reasons because we did not use age in the process. We neglected the use of an education criterion in most occupation groups except those in managerial, technical, professional and clerical categories. Let me also mention that we transformed reported earnings to annual rate earnings to match to our criteria because we know that many workers worked part-time, or were away from work for various reasons during the 12 months which proceeded the 1961 Census. This allowed us to exclude from superior categories individuals with little qualifications who held multiple jobs and worked an abnormal number of hours. We have also asked the Dominion Bureau of Statistics to provide information on the educational attainment of the workers in our different occupation groups by sex. This will allow users to draw implications concerning the formal educational requirements needed to produce the forecasted output. In conclusion, please allow me to mention what I believe to be some of the work required to improve our knowledge in this area. Care should be taken in preparing forecasts of the gross value of production (including inventories), in 1960 constant dollars, for the industry groups chosen in our study. These output forecasts should not be obtained from employment forecasts for the application of man-power coefficients to output forecasts thus derived would be tautological. Many specific studies of industry productivity trends would be helpful to narrow the zone of ignorance of the forecasts obtained through the use of our manpower coefficients. Much remains to be done to dynamize the manpower coefficients. We know that labour productivity (and hence the manpower coefficients) varies cyclically and all we have estimated is a fixed coefficient for 1960-1961. We also know that more frequent estimates of these manpower coefficients would allow us to determine how technological changes have altered them, although the robustness of manpower coefficients is improved by the fact that we have grouped industries and occupations. Our coefficients are based on ex post data of employment and output rather than ex ante data on the demand for labour (employment plus vacancies) and for output. They are therefore influenced by labour supply as well as by labour demand, i.e. they are the result of the interaction of manpower requirements and supplies. Much remains to be done to arrive at an interacting supply and demand model, and the new vacancies data soon to be published by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics should help us to refine those models we can think up now. Much remains to be done on the appropriateness of grouping occupations for training and retraining purposes, and on the criteria for doing so. Much analysis of the functional and employment requirements by occupation remains to be done for the use of sex, earnings and education, in this paper is certainly not fully satisfactory. (1) B.M. WILKINSON, Studies in the Economics of Education, Occasional Paper number 4, Economics and Research Branch, Department of Labour, Canada July 1965, pp. 37-38.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the factors influencing the labor supply on the non-agricultural activities and the of income from non-agricultural activities to the structure and distribution of farmer household income.To reach the goals, three models are developed. The first and second models are labor supply models of husband and wife, respectively. For both models, the dependent variables are labor supplies proxied by work-hours of non-agricultural activities per year. While the independent variables for both models are area of land used, wage level in non-agricultural, age, number of household member with age above and below 5 years, number of working household members, and location of the household. The third model is a model with contribution of non-agricultural income as its dependent variable, while its independent variable is area of land used. The data source for this research istaken from a primary survey, while the secondary data gathered BPS in Gunung Kidul.The study shows that husband labor supply on non-agricultural activities is affected by the area of land used, wage level, education level, number of household members, and household location. But, education level and number of working household members are not giving significant influence to husband labor supply on non agricultural sectors. Furthermore, wife labor supply is influenced by the area of land used, wage level, age, education level, number of household members with age below 5 years, and household location. In the contrary, number of household members of age over 5 years and number of working household members aren 't seem to have significant effect on wife labor supply model on non agricultural activities.

Exploiting differences across U.S. states, this paper demonstrates that there is a tight link between higher education policies, past enrollment rates, and recent changes in the college wage premium among labor market entrants. The analysis reveals, however, that this relationship is much weaker in states with high private enrollment rates, high levels of interstate mobility, or interstate trade. The within-state estimates of the own-cohort relative supply effect shed some light on the extent to which the U.S. labor market can be characterized as a single national market or a collection of state-specific labor markets.

Such a rapid growth in the labor force will have an impact on the economy, among others, on the expansion or creation of jobs. The lack of labor that is unable to accept the new labor force means that the increasing demand for the number of workers looks much less than the supply of the number of the labor force. This study aims to determine the influence of education, population, and job seekers on the employment opportunities of West Java Province in 1985-2020. Data quantitatif with multiple linear regression analysis and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is the research method used. The research has proven that education variables have a significant positive effect on job opportunities, population variables have a negative and significant effect, and job seeker variables have a significant positive effect on job opportunities.

The rapid expansion of higher education in the late 1980s in Taiwan has resulted in a swift increase in the supply of highly-educated workers in the labor market. This research differs from past studies in that it analyzes the effect of the rapid expansion in higher education in Taiwan with emphasis on the cohort effect, specifically examining the effect of changes both in intra-cohort relative supply and the aggregate relative supply on college returns. Besides, when estimating the aggregate relative supply of college graduates, this study takes into account the substitutability between younger and older educated workers. We present evidence that the expansion policy has significantly depressed college premiums for workers of all ages, but the adverse effect is particularly concentrated among the younger cohorts. Furthermore, we found the elasticity of substitution between college and high school graduates to be 3–4 times higher than in developed countries. We also found the important role played by the demand side, likely linked to technological progress and changes in export structure toward the more technologically intensive. As a consequence, the expansion of higher education and increase in the relative demand for higher-educated workers, along with high elasticity of substitution between college and high school graduates, led to the rigid low college premiums.

This study deals with education and the labour force in the province of Central Java, Indonesia. The relationship between education and the labour force includes several issues, such as education as investment in human capital to prepare qualified skills, the economic capacity to absorb educated people and the manpower policy to adjust demand for and supply of manpower. In this study, the relationship between education and the labour force has been viewed in this light. The primary source of data on education and the labour force was the 1980 census. The 1971 census, the 1976 Labour Force Survey, the 1985 Intercensal Population Survey and Jawa Tengah Dalam Angka (Central Java Year Books) were selected as the complements. The manpower policy data were obtained from the Repelita (Five Year Development Plans). The educational policy in Central Java, in terms of the quantity, has been succesful during the period 1971 to 1985, and resulted in rapid growth of educated labour force. Meanwhile, the economic policy on economic growth has also been succesful, but it has offered only limited employment growth and consequently resulted in unemployment. The unemployment rate among educated people (secondary and tertiary graduates) was higher than among the less educated people (primary graduates and below). The educational policy is producing graduates to achieve the desirable labour force pyramid, while the current economic difficulties will narrow employment growth in the future. According to employment projections, the increasing unemployment rate among secondary graduates, which began during 1980-1985, is likely to continue in the future. The government has established pre-employment training for the period 1984- 1989, which is excessive compared with the additional employment opportunities for that period, while the number of pre-employment training programs for secondary graduates is inadequate. Educated people who are unemployed are likely to move to lower occupations and consequently improve the quality of labour force in lower occupations.

In South Africa, reform policies and frameworks introduced since the 1994 democratic election have sought to bring about change to a highly ineffective and unfair system. In spite of all the changes which have occurred, however, there is evidence to suggest that the system is still not functioning as effectively as it might, given that a relatively large number of graduates remain unemployed in a country with a high skills shortage. This thesis aims to explore the experiences of graduates from one university, Rhodes University in the Eastern Cape, as they enter the job market. It does this through the administration of a first job destination survey administered at the 2009 Graduation Ceremonies held in Grahamstown. Analysis of the survey takes into account the idea that it is not a degree per se, or even a degree from a prestigious university which brings employment, but also the social, cultural and human capital that graduates can bring to their job search.

Les conséquences des chocs économiques négatifs sur les ménages ont été documentés extensivement, mais on en sait beaucoup moins sur la manière dont ces chocs sont transmis aux individus à travers la médiation du ménage. Le ménage contribue-il à modérer l'effet des chocs négatifs ? Dans quelle mesure le choc économique pèse-t-il dans la négociation familiale ? À partir de données sur la crise économique argentine de 2001, je montre d'abord que les femmes en couple ont une plus grande probabilité de devenir actives si leur mari a fait l'expérience d'un choc de revenu. Ensuite, je montre que le cycle économique importe dans les décisions d'investissement en capital humain. Sur le long terme, les profils de salaire et d'employabilité des hommes argentins sont affectés de manière persistante par les conditions économiques initiales au moment de l'obtention du diplôme. Enfin, je considère la dimension “man-cession” de la crise économique de 2009 en Espagne et montre que la part des ressources du ménage reçues par les femmes pour leur consommation privée augmente avec la diminution de l'écart des taux de chômage hommes-femmes, confortant l'hypothèse que les chocs négatifs modifient le pouvoir de négociation des individus au sein du ménage
The consequences of adverse aggregate shocks on households have been repeatedly documented, but far less has been said on the way they are passed over to individuals through the mediation of the household. Does the household contribute in mitigating the effects? Or does the economic shock rather invite itself at the family negociating table? Using the Argentine 2001 economic crisis as a natural experiment, I first show that married women are more likely to enter the labor market if their husband experienced a loss in income, giving credit to the insurance mechanism. Then, I show that the business cycle matters for investments in education, and that long run labor outcomes of Argentine men are persistently affected by the initial conditions upon graduation. Finally, I consider the “Mancession” dimension of the Great Recession in Spain and demonstrate that the resource share accruing to wives for own consumption increases together with the decreasing unemployment gap, which comes in support to the bargaining hypothesis

The Accreditation Board for Engineering Technology (ABET) requires that safety and health be integrated into an engineering curriculum in order to be accredited. These criteria for safety and health requirements, however, are not clearly defined. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has initiated Project SHAPE (Safety and Health Awareness for Preventative Engineering) instructional topics and curriculum development for engineering programs for the greater than 300 ABET accredited engineering schools. The present study was designed to evaluate how important safety and health (addressed as Environmental Safety and Health) knowledge/education are to an employer when seeking graduating Bachelor of Science Engineering students at Oregon State University (OSU). The study also seeks to find out what magnitude of ES&H instruction/knowledge is desired by prospective employers. And finally, the type or level of knowledge/education employers are seeking in their prospective OSU engineering employee. A questionnaire was developed and targeted at companies who recruited graduating Bachelor of Science Engineering students at OSU for employment during the 1993/1994 and 1994/1995 academic years. A roster of recruiters and the companies they represented generated a population of 110 recruiters from records kept in the Oregon State University Career Placement Office. Each recruiter was requested to complete a four page questionnaire. Participants were requested to rank qualifications for employment when seeking prospective engineering employees; how important ES&H were when considering a candidate; what kind and level of ES&H knowledge/education was preferred; and if a graduating B.S. Engineering student with ES&H knowledge/education was more likely to gain employment with their firm. A total of 72 surveys were returned, for an overall response rate of 65.5%. The results indicated that recruiters seeking graduating B.S. engineering students at OSU found ES&H knowledge/education 'Not Too' or 'Not At All' important when considering them for employment. However, the majority of those recruiters that indicated ES&H was an important qualification when considering an engineering candidate for employment, indicated the source of ES&H knowledge/education was through integration into the engineering curriculum.
Graduation date: 1998

My dissertation focuses on the heterogeneity in labor markets. The first chapter proposes an explanation for the unemployment rate difference between skill groups. Low skill workers (workers without a four year college degree) have a higher unemployment rate. The reason for that "... is mainly because they (low skill workers) are more likely to become unemployed, not because they remain unemployed longer, once unemployed" (Layard, Nickell, Jackman, 1991, p. 44). This chapter proposes an explanation for the difference in job separation probabilities between these skill groups: high skill workers have lower job separation probabilities as they are selected more effectively during the hiring process. I use a labor search model with match specific quality to quantify the explanatory power of this hypothesis on differences in job separation probabilities and unemployment rates across skill groups. The second chapter analyzes the effects of one channel of interaction (job competition) between skill groups on their labor market outcomes. Do skilled workers prefer unskilled jobs to being unemployed? If so, skilled workers compete with unskilled workers for those jobs. Job competition generates interaction between the labor market outcomes of these groups. I use a heterogeneous agents model with skilled and unskilled workers in which the only interaction across groups is the job competition. Direct effects of job competition are reducing skilled unemployment rate (since they have a bigger market) and increasing the unskilled unemployment rate (since they face greater competition). However number of vacancies respond to job competition in equilibrium. For instance, unskilled firms have incentives to open more vacancies since filling a vacancy is easier if there is job competition. Thus how unskilled unemployment and wages are affected by job competition depends on which effect dominates. The results for reasonable parameter values show that job competition does reduce the average unemployment rate. It reduces the skilled unemployment rate more, generating an increase in unemployment rate inequality. However, the employment rate at skilled jobs is unaffected. The third chapter focuses on skill biased technological change. Skill biased technological change is one of the explanations for the asymmetry between labor market outcomes of skill groups over the last few decades. However, during this time period there were also skill neutral shocks that could contribute to these outcomes. The third chapter analyzes the effects of skill biased and neutral shocks on overall labor market variables. I use a model in which skilled and unskilled outputs are intermediate goods, and final good sector receives all the shocks. A numerical exercise shows that both skilled and unskilled unemployment rates respond to shocks in the same direction. The response of unemployment rate to skill neutral shocks is bigger than the response to skill biased shocks for both skill groups. However, the unskilled unemployment changes more than the skilled unemployment rate as a response to skill neutral shocks. Thus, skill neutral shocks reduce the unemployment rate gap between skill groups.
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My dissertation intends to better understand the impacts of large-scale education expansion programs on students’ education and labor market outcomes both by reviewing related theory and prior literature, and by empirically analyzing a radical and large-scale higher education expansion program initiated in 1999 in China. In Chapter 1, I review theories, methods and empirical studies on the labor market consequences of education expansion from both the partial equilibrium treatment effect and general equilibrium structural model literature. This chapter serves as the theoretical and methodological foundation for my later analyses in Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, and provides motivation for my empirical work because prior literature has not reached a consensus in terms of the impacts of large-scale education expansion programs on individuals’ labor market outcomes or the wage structure in the labor market. In Chapter 2, I take advantage of the fact that the substantially expanded access to higher education after China’s higher education expansion provides exogenous variation in the probability of college attendance for students of different cohorts and coming from different provinces. I thus employ a two-way fixed-effect model to estimate the expansion’s causal impacts on individuals’ education and labor market outcomes, and find that the expansion substantially improved educational outcomes, such as years of schooling completed, the probabilities of attending college and obtaining any post-secondary degree. The expansion also increased treated individuals’ probability of working and earning positive income, and modestly improved their hourly income. However, the expansion’s earnings effects are less robust to the exclusion of two largest metropolitan cities in China and the inclusion of province-year-level time-varying covariates to control for potential cofounding influences. In Chapter 3, I exploit multiple repeated cross-sections of data to explore how the expansion affects the labor market at large, especially the college-high school earnings gap. Incorporating an aggregate labor supply model with imperfect substitution across labor with the same education level but in different age groups, I decompose the changes in age-group specific college premium over time into changes in the aggregate and cohort-specific relative supply of college-educated (vs. high school-educated) labor, and in the aggregate relative demand for college-educated labor. My findings show that a 1 percent increase in the relative supply of BA-educated workers within one’s own cohorts would depress the BA-HS wage gap by 0.04 percentage point. Given that college enrollment increased by nearly 4 times from 1998 to 2005, the negative cohort effects could be substantial: for example, the cohort-specific relative supply for the youngest age group in my analysis increased by 112 percent from 2002 to 2009, suggesting an additional 4.5 percentage points decrease in the BA-HS wage gap for workers of this particular age group, on top of the effects of changes in aggregate relative supply and demand that are borne by workers in all age groups. Moreover, my estimates reveal a steadily increasing relative demand for BA-educated labor that raises college premium by approximately 2-3 percentage points annually; it is mitigated by the negative effects from the increase in the aggregate relative supply of BA-educated labor though; the latter effect also implies that the expansion has negative spillover effects on workers who attended college before the expansion. Putting together, my dissertation provides a holistic picture of the full impacts of one of the largest education expansion program on record. My work is among the first to systematically analyze how the expansion affects “treated” individuals and the labor market at large, and therefore could contribute to all levels of decision-making. Findings from my analyses could also have global implications for much broader issues such as education-related income inequality, and the general equilibrium and distributional effects of large-scale social programs.

Text in English
In its proposal of a communication strategy that will be of use as an enabling tool for increasing graduate employment potential, this study contributes uniquely to the discipline of communication. It envisages that communication takes into consideration the involvement of the key stakeholders, namely: government, labour market, education system, and media. Amid unemployment challenges that affect the majority of the population, media is regarded as a powerful tool to reach the majority of the population. With specific regard to graduate unemployment, media-driven interaction with unemployed graduates is not as efficient as it should be. Factors contributing to graduate unemployment are identified as career choices, skills shortage, job opportunities, career development, work experience, skills development, entrepreneurial skills, internships, and access to the labour market. It is also important to note that media is regarded as tool for disseminating information about such factors. In order to address this problem, the study establishes an integrated communication strategy that will be of use as an enabling tool for increasing the potential of graduate employment. The role of such communication could be applicable in various ways, such as organisational communication, business communication, public communication, personal communication, interpersonal communication, etc. This study locates itself in the domain of public communication because information about unemployment issues is a matter of public concern. This study adopts mixed research methodologies, with a survey research design—in order to gather data from the graduate students at a University of Technology. The study found that while social and print media are highly preferred and used due to their accessibility, there is a need to stress their use with regard to employment search. The main concepts that contributed to the establishment of the strategy included strategic communication, unemployment and media. It must be here noted that, for purposes of this study, strategic communication was informed by a confluence of the constitutive model of communication, systems theory, and situational theory of publics. The phenomenon of unemployment is informed by unemployment approaches, on the one hand, and the Maslow theory of needs, on the other. Furthermore, the understanding of the concept of media is informed by mass communication approaches and media richness theory. This thesis expects that, as an outcome, such a communication strategy would increase graduate employment potential. Public relations planning model is applied in the study in order to guide the implementation of the proposed communication strategy.
Communication Science
D. Litt. et Phil. (Communication Science)

鄭均杰.
"2013年8月".
"2013 nian 8 yue".
Thesis (Ed.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-123).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstract in Chinese and English.
Zheng Junjie.

In this chapter an attempt is made, in the light of evidence from the United States and Canada, to explain in general terms the ebb and flow of private school options. Both public and private school growth and decline are affected by demography. Thus, a massive drop in Catholic school enrollment from 1966 to 1981 reflects, in part, a birthrate decline and a migration of Catholics from central cities, where many Catholic schools existed, to suburbs, where there were few Catholic schools. But unlike public school attendance, which rarely involves user fees and is considered normal if not laudatory in the United States and parts of Canada, private school attendance generally occurs when parents decide to depart from normal practice, incurring extra cost, extra effort (many private school patrons must drive their children considerable distances to school), disruption of their children’s friendships (many private school students are not in the schools which most of their neighborhood friends attend), and sometimes social disapproval. To a far greater extent than public school enrollment, then, private school enrollment depends on patron motivations. To return to the Catholic example: Even if the Catholic birthrate were high and Catholic schools were universally accessible, those schools would soon collapse unless many Catholic parents considered them worth extra expense and effort. Also, while public schools are everywhere available, parents often cannot find the private schools they prefer. Some schools exist primarily for certain religious and ethnic groups. Schools of some types are available only in a few major cities. Some schools are beyond the fiscal reach of most people. It is no accident, in this regard, that religious options are more plentiful in private schools than curricular or pedagogical options. Most religiously oriented schools enjoy subsidies from religious groups. Many schools open in the facilities of churches and synagogues, thus avoiding major expense. Sometimes churches and other denominational agencies directly sponsor schools. Even when they do not, they often assist by taking special collections, or their members provide free labor. Many Jewish day schools are subsidized through Jewish community funds.

At the 2004 Law and Diversity Conference in Toronto on the accreditation of foreign-trained immigrants in Canada, speaker Naomi Alboim called Canadian immigration policy “one of seduction and abandonment.” Seduction because skilled workers are selected as immigrants based on their high levels of education and experience, which leads them to expect that they will be able to apply these skills and experience in the Canadian labor market. Abandonment because, once in Canada, the immigrant workers receive little help with the accreditation of their education and professional certification, preventing them from applying their skills. Immigrants in regulated trades and professions such as the electrical trade, engineering, law, medicine, nursing, and teaching often lose access to the occupations they previously held—an effect commonly known as “deskilling.” The abandonment of immigrants is not simply the result of inadvertent neglect and the failure of policy. It can also be interpreted as a systematic process of distinction and subordination. By excluding many skilled, foreign-trained immigrants from high-status occupations in Canada, the regulation of educational and professional credentials enables domestic-educated workers to dominate these occupations. The level of education among Canadian immigrants has steadily increased since the 1950s (Akabari 1999). Nevertheless, immigrants have failed to benefit from their educational attainments and have lower returns on their education than Canadian-born workers (Reitz 2001a, 2001b). Level of education, in fact, fails as an accurate predictor of labor market performance among immigrants (E. N. Thompson 2000). Similarly, the benefits immigrants receive for foreign work experience have deteriorated. In the 1960s, one year of foreign work experience was rewarded with an average 1.5 percent increase in earnings for immigrants. By the late 1990s, this wage increase dropped to only 0.3 percent (Statistics Canada 2004: 5). Furthermore, skilled immigrants require an increasing amount of time to catch up with the wages of Canadian workers with similar skills and education, if they catch up at all (Ley 1999). These national trends also apply to immigrants in Vancouver. Three-fourths of all immigrant professionals from India who settled in Vancouver experienced occupational downward mobility after their arrival in Canada.

This chapter looks to analyze three aspects skill: premium or wage incentive, existence of skill-biased technical change, and problems with current vocational training programs prevailing in India. All these three aspects will be analyzed with a gender-based approach specifically looking at female outcomes in comparison to male outcomes. This study would also throw some light on why labor force participation rate has been low in the case of females in India. Using NSSO data, it is found that skill premium was falling for women in labor-intensive sectors and rising in capital-intensive sectors, but it had no major effect on skill premium of total workforce due to low female labor force participation rate. Overall skill premium is stagnant for total workforce, and capital skill complementarity is not present in case of Indian economy. Movement of labor in Indian economy has been from one unskilled sector (agriculture) to another unskilled sector (construction). The study also finds that the major reason behind skill development system being supply driven is lack of involvement of the private sector financially.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.