Academic literature on the topic 'Labor policy – Europe'
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Journal articles on the topic "Labor policy – Europe"
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Ochsen, Carsten. "Crime and labor market policy in Europe." International Review of Law and Economics 30, no. 1 (March 2010): 52–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irle.2009.08.004.
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Behar, Joseph. "Diplomacy and Essential Workers: Official British Recruitment of Foreign Labor in Italy, 1945–1951." Journal of Policy History 15, no. 3 (July 2003): 324–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jph.2003.0015.
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The recruitment of about seven thousand Italian migrant workers by the postwar British Labour government is an interesting study in the use of foreign labor recruitment as a diplomatic policy. Foreign labor recruitment has generally been regarded as primarily an economic policy, with political ramifications entering into the picture in the form of domestic issues around integration, racism, labor relations and so on. However, the various British schemes to recruit Italian migrant workers from 1945 to 1951, and the discussion around the movement of migrant workers in postwar Europe carried on in various inter-European bodies, illustrate that foreign labor recruitment can be a much more complex phenomenon.
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Sadykova, L. R. "German Policy Towards Muslim Communities." MGIMO Review of International Relations, no. 6(39) (December 28, 2014): 174–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2014-6-39-174-181.
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The past two-three decades can be characterized by the period of global migration and sharp jump of migratory streams is connected with globalization and with the economic factor, generating labor movement behind resources from Third World countries to the countries with deficiency of labor. The desire to receive comfort life becomes the major reason, and the migrant makes the decision being guided by private interest more often instead of external factors. Western Europe became one of the most important center of gravity of migrants. During the post-war period the need of Europe in foreign labor for restoration of the economy destroyed by war, laid the foundation of mass international migration to this region. Globalization of migratory streams, penetration of foreign culture groups into structure of accepting society and prevalence of multicultural, multiethnic societies are important characteristics of a modern era. Western Europe became one of the most important centers of gravity of migrants. During the post-war period, the need of Europe in foreign labor for restoration of the economy destroyed by war laid the foundation of mass international migration to this region. Special relevance the problem of reception of immigrants, in particular from the Muslim countries, got for the former colonial powers, in particular Great Britain, France, and the Netherlands. Germany also faced this problem; migrants workers from other countries were required for the post-war restoration. Now Germany still is one of the main centers of an attraction of migrants, and concentration of them in this country annually increases. Despite the steps taken by the German government on elimination of Muslim isolation in the German society, its efforts did not bear fruits so far. The majority of Muslims live their life and are still torn off from high life of the country. A possible threat of destruction of the German community appeared when the various ethnic groups appeared in the country.
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Sarabiev, Aleksei. "TO THE ANALYSIS OF LABOR MIGRATION TO EUROPE." Eastern Analytics 13, no. 1 (2022) (2022): 8–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.31696/2227-5568-2022-01-008-022.
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Labor migraton to European countries is analyzed through the prism of the region's demographic problems as well as of powerful immigraton wave that has generated contradictons between the EU's central migraton policy and the one pursued by separated European countries. On the example of historical documents from the Swiss Federal Archives in Bern, the author shows the contnuity of both the features of migraton trends and independent approaches to the development of internal migraton policy, in partcular by the Swiss authorites. As a fruitul element in the analysis of factors, immediate causes, consequences and the very labor actvity of non‑European immigrants, the author proposes to use variants of the deprivaton theory that have been tested for decades in many areas of socio‑psychological and economic research.
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Batychenko, Svitlana. "FEATURES OF FAMILY POLICY IN EUROPE." GEOGRAPHY AND TOURISM, no. 60 (2020): 65–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/2308-135x.2020.60.65-72.
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Goal. Analysis of the peculiarities of family policy in European countries, such as France, Sweden, Germany, Great Britain. Method. The study is based on general scientific methods, namely, analysis and synthesis, descriptive, analytical. And also socio-geographical - comparative-geographical. Results. Family policy in European countries focuses on the life position of young people, promotes gender equality, creates opportunities to combine work, education and family activities through a well-developed infrastructure. The establishment of the modern family model in which both parents work and the expansion of public education and services for children and families reduce relatively high child poverty, create new jobs in services, and reduce social inequality. Although European countries pursue a common family-gender strategy, they also have their own traditional model of family protection. The Scandinavian model is characterized by comprehensive support for working parents with young children (under the age of three) through a combination of material mechanisms, holidays and wide access to childcare facilities. An important aspect is the policy of gender equality and women's integration in the labor market. The main source of funding for family policy - taxes. Anglo-Saxon - is characterized by deliberately less financial support from families by the state, giving priority to low-income families. The main idea is the non-interference of the state in family and marriage processes and ensuring the well-being of families through the general development of the welfare of society. "Napoleonic" - use intangible forms of support: tax benefits, targeted loans. France has the highest level of state support for families with children and support for working women. The principle of subsidiary security is professed. Taxes and financial contributions are used. The German fiscal system does not encourage couples to work equally, as the tax burden on domestic work is much higher for two full-time employees. Parental leave allows mothers to leave the labor market for up to three years for one child. Scientific novelty. Analysis and comparison of family policy features in European countries. Practical significance. Implementation of family policy measures in domestic practice based on the experience of European countries, choosing the most successful option. The best option is to improve the demographic situation in the country.
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Feld, Serge. "Labor Force Trends and Immigration in Europe." International Migration Review 39, no. 3 (September 2005): 637–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2005.tb00283.x.
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Labor force trends up to 2025 for the fifteen countries (before May 1, 2004) of the European Community are examined. Will demographic decline have an early effect on manpower volume? An estimation is made to determine whether present migratory flow levels in these countries will be sufficient to counter labor force stagnation. Manpower trend scenarios are proposed for each country. They show highly contrasting situations. These countries favor different policies for mobilizing and increasing their manpower volume. There is wide divergence between the various EU countries as concerns their demographic situation and labor force participation rate as well as their social security systems. Considering these highly diverse national characteristics, the difficulty in arriving at a consensus on EU migratory policy harmonization is stressed.
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Koo Choon-Kweon. "Social Europe and the Development of Labor Policy in the EU." Korean Political Science Review 42, no. 3 (September 2008): 219–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.18854/kpsr.2008.42.3.010.
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BERGEMANN and VAN DEN BERG. "Active Labor Market Policy Effects for Women in Europe — A Survey." Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, no. 91/92 (2008): 385. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/27917252.
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SAYARI, SABRI. "Migration Policies of Sending Countries: Perspectives on the Turkish Experience." ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 485, no. 1 (May 1986): 87–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0002716286485001008.
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During the 1960s and early 1970s, Turkey participated heavily in the process of labor migration from the Mediterranean basin to Western Europe. In addition to the policy preferences of advanced industrial European states and the demand for jobs in Europe by large numbers of Turks, Turkey's migration policies played a significant role in the expansion of the migratory flow. Turkish policymakers sought to use labor migration abroad to fulfill several objectives such as reducing unemployment and increasing the volume of foreign-exchange reserves through remittances. The migration of Turkish workers to Western Europe produced some significant results concerning these primary objectives. The policy of exporting workers, however, has also had important unintended consequences and problems for Turkey.
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Anderson, Elisabeth. "Policy Entrepreneurs and the Origins of the Regulatory Welfare State: Child Labor Reform in Nineteenth-Century Europe." American Sociological Review 83, no. 1 (January 25, 2018): 173–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0003122417753112.
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Industrial child labor laws were the earliest manifestation of the modern regulatory welfare state. Why, despite the absence of political pressure from below, did some states (but not others) succeed in legislating working hours, minimum ages, and schooling requirements for working children in the first half of the nineteenth century? I use case studies of the politics behind the first child labor laws in Germany and France, alongside a case study of a failed child labor reform effort in Belgium, to answer this question. I show that existing structural, class-based, and institutional theories of the welfare state are insufficient to explain why child labor laws came about. Highlighting instead the previously neglected role of elite policy entrepreneurs, I argue that the success or failure of early nineteenth-century child labor laws depended on these actors’ social skill, pragmatic creativity, and goal-directedness. At the same time, their actions and influence were conditioned by their field position and the architecture of the policy field. By specifying the qualities and conditions that enable policy entrepreneurs to build the alliances needed to effect policy change, this analysis lends precision to the general claim that their agency matters.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Labor policy – Europe"
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Rannenberg, Ansgar. "Explaining medium run swings in unemployment : shocks, monetary policy and labour market frictions." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/974.
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The literature trying to link the increase in unemployment in many western European countries since the middle of the 1970s to an increase in labour market rigidity has run into a number of problems. In particular, changes in labour market institutions do not seem to be able to explain the evolution of unemployment across time. We conclude that a new theory of medium run unemployment swings should explain the increase in unemployment in many European countries and the lack thereof in the United States. Furthermore, it should also help to explain the high degree of endogenous unemployment persistence in the many European countries and findings suggesting a link between disinflationary monetary policy and subsequent increases in the NAIRU. To address these issues, we first develop an endogenous growth sticky price model. We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinflation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. The model also partly explains cross country differences in the unemployment evolution by drawing on differences in the size of the disinflation, the monetary policy reaction function and wage setting. We then draw some conclusions about optimal monetary policy in the presence of endogenous growth and find that optimal policy is substantially less hawkish than in an identical economy without endogenous growth. The second model introduces duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.
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Ilkserim, Ayselin Yildiz. "Labor Migration In Europe Within The Context Of Demographic Challenges." Master's thesis, METU, 2004. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12605341/index.pdf.
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Today, it is a very crucial problem that many European countries are encountering demographic challenges stemming from the population decline and aging and according to many studies and future projections, this demographic trend will reach more critical levels for the next 50 years. The most prominent impact of this demographic situation will be on social security systems that the functioning and sustainability of pension and health care systems will be severely damaged with regard to the rapidly increasing number of elderly and the decline in number of young labor force resulting from the low births rates all over Europe. In this context, labor migration that received significant attention, has risen up to the agenda of Europe to serve as a policy option to mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic challenges. Taking its impetus from the mentioned demographic problem, this thesis aims to analyze the discussions over labor migration as a foreseen policy option to compensate the shortage of labor force in Europe. It also intents to bring relevant data and current debates together to generate a ground in order to open this critical issue to discussion and to elaborate the feasibility of labor migration need for Europe. In this regard, the thesis scrutinizes the reactions of European states regarding their reluctance to open their borders again for &ldquomass influx&rdquo
and examines briefly the other preferred and enforced policies that exclude migration option, such as aiming to increase fertility rates, ameliorate social security systems or encourage the native labor force participation. By taking all these into account, this thesis aspires to attract attention to this urgent problem and evaluates the labor migration need in Europe by presenting the relevant reactions and appraisals shaping the migration policies both at the nation state and EU level. Finally, this thesis attempts to contribute to the literature in terms of generating a base for further intensified discussions and studies which constitutes a significant need in the context of interaction between demography and migration in Europe.
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Jain, Aditya Kailash. "Development and implementation of policies for the management of psychosocial risks : exploring the role of stakeholders and the translation of policy into practice in Europe." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2011. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12295/.
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The key aim of this research is to evaluate the impact of policy level interventions for the management of psychosocial risks in Europe. This research is exploratory in nature and seeks to clarify the policy framework in relation to psychosocial risk management, identify key policy stakeholders, examine their perceptions and clarify their role in the policy making process. The research also evaluates the impact of selected policies by analysing their implementation and impact on action at the national and enterprise levels. A combination of qualitative and quantitative methodologies was employed. Three qualitative and two quantitative studies were conducted and sought to: a. identify all stakeholders relevant to psychosocial risk management, b. analyse the role of key stakeholders in the policy development process as well as drivers and barriers for the development and implementation for such policies for psychosocial risk management, c. investigate the effectiveness and needs related to EU and national regulations governing health and safety and psychosocial risk management at the workplace, d. explore stakeholders’ views on the impact of policy interventions and priorities for action at the policy level, and e. analyse the translation of policy into practice at the enterprise level, by assessing the impact of policies on enterprise action (specifically on the implementation of procedures and measures to manage psychosocial risk management), and by identifying the key drivers, barriers and needs of European enterprises in relation to psychosocial risk management. Overall, the findings of this work recognise many challenges in relation to policy evaluation for psychosocial risk management. However, unless the impact of these policies is evaluated using predefined and appropriate evaluation methodologies and criteria, the basis on which further policies can be developed will not be clear. The research also highlighted that despite the increased awareness of issues relating to psychosocial risks in Europe, there are several differences in perceptions amongst stakeholders and lack of prioritisation of these issues at the policy level that may seriously hinder practice. In this context, the role of researchers and academics is important. Evaluation of policies must therefore ideally be carried out on a tripartite plus basis and should not be within the remit of governmental agencies alone.
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Plasman, Robert. "Les politiques du marché du travail: analyse et comparaisons européennes :procédures d'évaluation (micro et macro-économiques) :évaluation des politiques de résorption du chômage et des politiques du temps de travail en Belgique." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/212651.
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Chen, Maria X. "Wine in their veins : France and the European Community's common wine policy, 1967-1980." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2013. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/933/.
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This thesis analyses the impact that the European Community had on table wine growers in the Midi region of France in the 1970s. This work is divided into the following parts: the negotiations leading to the creation of the Common Wine Policy (CWP) in 1970, its operation in the early 1970s until its first major crisis in 1975-1976, its drastic transformation from liberal policy to one of restrictive control in the late 1970s, the reaction of table wine producers in Languedoc-Roussillon to these changes over the decade, and the change in political relationships and governance at three levels - Brussels, Paris, and Languedoc-Roussillon - as a result of this process. It argues that the first decade of the CWP changed relationships between different groups at the European, national, and local level in two major ways: first, national French government institutions voluntarily decreased their power over a key national industry – this was the most marked feature in the French wine industry of this time period. Second, the CWP helped facilitate the rise of sub-national and non-state actors in policy circles from which they were previously excluded. Empowered by the new responsibilities given to them by the French government, particularly via a newly-created national office of wine, French vignerons began attempting to bypass the national French bottleneck to the Community and directly lobby European-level institutions, either via their own organisations or as part of transnational endeavours. Given the French government’s particularly adamant control of who represented the country at the Brussels levels in the 1960s, this change in only a decade was a significant shift. In analysing this process, this thesis also makes broader comments on the integration process as a whole, adding particularly to the literature on the Community’s agricultural integration, and is the first comprehensive review of the history of the Common Wine Policy, and the first to make an extensive assessment of the impact on local farmers in the Midi during this time in relation to the European Community’s policies.
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Maron, Leila. "La parentalité et l'emploi: quel défi pour les politiques publiques belges au regard de la situation en Europe?" Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210076.
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Cette thèse a pour objectif d'étudier l'impact de la présence d'un jeune enfant sur la participation au marché du travail et sur la qualité de l’emploi des parents (temps plein versus temps partiel et inactivité, ségrégation horizontale et verticale, salaire), tant de la mère que du père, et sur l’allocation du temps entre les parents. Il s’agit de mettre en évidence la capacité des politiques à relever les nouveaux défis en matière d'emploi et de fécondité auxquels sont confrontés les pays européens aujourd'hui. En effet, l'objectif est d'identifier les dispositifs qui sont en faveur des familles bi-actives, et de déterminer quels sont les instruments politiques favorisant ou défavorisant la situation des femmes et des hommes sur le marché du travail (et plus particulièrement lorsqu'ils ont des enfants). Pour ce faire, nous analysons les politiques publiques visant à favoriser l'emploi des parents et couvrant plusieurs dimensions de la prise en charge de l'enfance: services de garde d'enfants, congé de maternité, congé de paternité, congé parental, mode d'imposition du système fiscal et possibilité de déduire les frais liés à la garde d'enfants.
Cette thèse vise à montrer la position relative de la Belgique au sein de l'Union Européenne afin d'identifier des exemples de bonnes pratiques qui pourraient aider à la formulation de recommandations politiques.
Doctorat en sciences sociales, Orientation sciences du travail
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Curto, Millet Fabien. "Inflation expectations, labour markets and EMU." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2007. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:9187d2eb-2f93-4a5a-a7d6-0fb6556079bb.
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This thesis examines the measurement, applications and properties of consumer inflation expectations in the context of eight European Union countries: France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden. The data proceed mainly from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and are qualitative in nature, therefore requiring quantification prior to use. This study first seeks to determine the optimal quantification methodology among a set of approaches spanning three traditions, associated with Carlson-Parkin (1975), Pesaran (1984) and Seitz (1988). The success of a quantification methodology is assessed on the basis of its ability to match quantitative expectations data and on its behaviour in an important economic application, namely the modelling of wages for our sample countries. The wage equation developed here draws on the theoretical background of the staggered contracts and the wage bargaining literature, and controls carefully for inflation expectations and institutional variables. The Carlson-Parkin variation proposed in Curto Millet (2004) was found to be the most satisfactory. This being established, the wage equations are used to test the hypothesis that the advent of EMU generated an increase in labour market flexibility, which would be reflected in structural breaks. The hypothesis is essentially rejected. Finally, the properties of inflation expectations and perceptions themselves are examined, especially in the context of EMU. Both the rational expectations and rational perceptions hypotheses are rejected. Popular expectations mechanisms, such as the "rule-of-thumb" model or Akerlof et al.'s (2000) "near-rationality hypothesis" are similarly unsupported. On the other hand, evidence is found for the transmission of expert forecasts to consumer expectations in the case of the UK, as in Carroll's (2003) model. The distribution of consumer expectations and perceptions is also considered, showing a tendency for gradual (as in Mankiw and Reis, 2002) but non-rational adjustment. Expectations formation is further shown to have important qualitative features.
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Dmitrijeva, Jekaterina. "Unemployment and labour market policy in Central and Eastern Europe." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008EVRY0002/document.
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Transition vers l’économie de marché et accession a l’Union Européenne ont profondément modifié la structure et le fonctionnement des économies d’Europe Centrale et de l’Est. Cette thèse propose une analyse des évolutions observées sur les marchés du travail régionaux et nationaux des nouveaux pays membres de l’Union Européenne ainsi qu’une évaluation des politiques publiques mises en œuvre dans ce contexte de transition économique. L’analyse du processus d’appariement entre travailleurs et employeurs révèle l’importance de la demande de travail dans la création de nouvelles embauches en Lettonie, Slovénie et Estonie et souligne la nécessité d’intégrer flux (chômeurs et emplois vacants) et effets spatiaux dans la modélisation. L’efficacité des politiques publiques est attestée au niveau macro et microéconomiques et démontre l’influence positive des programmes de formation sur les taux de sortie du chômage et l’employabilité des participantsDuring the transition to market economy and the accession to the EU Central and Eastern European countries have witnessed remarkable changes in the structure and functioning of national economies. This thesis aims to assess the development of aggregate and regional labour markets in new EU member states through this eventful period and to investigate the role of active labour market policy in moderating the consequences of transitional shock and improving the performance of the labour market. The analysis of the process of worker-firm matching in Latvia, Slovenia and Estonia reveals that in transition - EU accession context the hiring process is labour demand driven and displays the existence of stock-flow patterns and spatial spillovers. The effects of ALMP programs are confirmed to be positive at both macroeconomic and individual levels: involvement of unemployed in training increases aggregate outflows from unemployment to jobs and increases individual employability of participants
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Dmitrijeva, Jekaterina Laurent Thierry. "Unemployment and labour market policy in Central and Eastern Europe." S. l. : Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2008. http://www.biblio.univ-evry.fr/theses/2008/2008EVRY0002.pdf.
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Brink, Bernd. "One flexible future for Europe? : the case of European convergence and/or divergence in the light of the flexibility debate." Thesis, University of Stirling, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/21526.
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This Thesis examines recent trends in flexible forms of employment and how those forms of employment influence and at the same time are influenced by the economic, structural and regulatory environments in the different countries of the European Union, as well as their diverse labour market regimes. Those interactions are used as the basis for an analysis of the likelihood of convergence or divergence in European ways of work organisation; and for a consideration of how much influence decision makers are capable of exercising on this process. The Thesisis divided into four parts. The first part starts by discussing theories of societal development, presenting a model of firms flexibility, and deals with methodological issues involved in relating firms strategies with national employment environments. The second part examines the characteristics of the various European labour markets using data from the European Labour Force Survey (ELFS, 1984 - 1994) and the New Forms of Work and Activity Survey (NFWA, 1989/90). Firm specific data from the NFWAis used to explain variance in firms use of new forms of employment with other firm features. The study argues that European labour markets are still distinct and that differences in the usage patterns and meaning of new forms of employment can not be explained by firm characteristics alone; differences in national labour market regimes have also to be considered. The third part relates the findings of the previous part to the national employment systems and compares various aspects of the findings in three sample countries (Spain, United Kingdom and Germany). It shows that the various systems function in different manners, and possess competitive advantages / disadvantages in different areas. Conditions needed for one system to work are distinct from those needed for the other systems. Interchanging some features known from other systems to increase for example flexibility in the short run, might have effects contrary to those sought and might destroy a system's foundations in the long run. The fourth part looks into possible converging / diverging trends in European ways of work organisation, given the different starting positions. The evidence presented suggest that in the short term gains can be made through a cost cutting strategy, however this will make in the long run the creation of the wanted high trust, high wage, high quality economy in Europe even more difficult. To overcome short term thinking, which could bring about a convergence towards a economy competing only on costs, co-ordination on a supranational level is needed. As the situation of the national systems is still distinct, decision making on this level is increasingly prone to gridlock. However, recent developments on the company level towards transnational information and work councils on a European level might have important effects, even when such arrangements still lag behind the swift developments towards economic and monetary union.
Books on the topic "Labor policy – Europe"
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Brigitte, Lestrade, and Boutilier Sophie, eds. Les mutations du travail en Europe. Paris: L'Harmattan, 2000.
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Pappadà, Gabriella, Rocco Lancellotti, and Valentina Berni. Promoting youth employment in Europe. Milano: Franco Angeli, 2012.
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European Commission. Directorate-General for Employment, Industrial Relations, and Social Affairs. Unit V/A.1, ed. Employment in Europe 1999: Jobs in Europe : confidence amidst uncertainty. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1999.
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Alfred, Pfaller, ed. Employment and labour-market policy in South Eastern Europe. Belgrade: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Regional Office Belgrad, 2002.
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Alfred, Pfaller, ed. Employment and labour-market policy in South Eastern Europe. Belgrade: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Regional Office Belgrad, 2002.
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European Commission. Directorate-General for Employment, Industrial Relations, and Social Affairs., ed. Employment in Europe: Meeting the employment challenge : 1996. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1997.
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B, Henry S. G., and Snower Dennis J, eds. Economic policies and unemployment dynamics in Europe. Washington, D.C., U.S.A: International Monetary Fund, 1996.
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Tomev, Li︠u︡ben, and Marc Meinardus. Employment policies in South-East Europe: Common challenges and different scenarios. Sofia, Bulgaria: Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Office Bulgaria, 2012.
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author, Hoerning Ulrich, Falcão, Natasha de Andrade, author, Millán Natalia author, Tokman Carla author, and Zini Michele author, eds. Portraits of labor market exclusion. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2015.
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Michael, Gold, Weiss Manfred 1940-, and European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions., eds. Employment and industrial relations in Europe. The Hague [Netherlands]: Kluwer Law International, 1999.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Labor policy – Europe"
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Hatton, Timothy J., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. "Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Policy in Europe." In Labor Mobility and the World Economy, 249–84. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-31045-7_18.
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Lehmann, Hartmut. "Active Labor Market Policies in Central Europe: First Lessons." In Employment Policy in Transition, 254–93. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-56560-1_13.
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Wieland, Bernhard. "Multinational Banking, the Theory of the Division of Labor and the Information and Communications Technologies." In Communications Policy in Europe, 165–92. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-75885-0_7.
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Belke, Ansgar, and Thomas Rhein. "Maastricht — Implications of a Centralized Monetary and Currency Policy for Employment in Europe." In Labor Markets and Social Security, 203–45. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24780-7_10.
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Belke, Ansgar. "Maastricht — Implications of a Centralized Monetary and Currency Policy for Employment in Europe." In Labor Markets and Social Security, 195–250. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03599-3_8.
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Caviedes, Alexander. "The Sectoral Turn in Labour Migration Policy." In Labour Migration in Europe, 54–75. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230292536_3.
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Burckhardt, Till. "Linguistic Disenfranchisement and Labour Mobility in Europe." In Language Policy and Linguistic Justice, 313–35. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75263-1_10.
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Eichhorst, Werner, and Ulf Rinne. "Promoting Youth Employment in Europe: Evidence-Based Policy Lessons." In European Youth Labour Markets, 189–204. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68222-8_13.
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Huffschmid, Jörg. "Labour Market Policies: Higher Standards." In Economic Policy for a Social Europe, 214–22. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230523395_17.
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Williams, Paul D. "Living in (and with) Europe." In British Foreign Policy Under New Labour, 1997–2005, 56–74. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230514690_4.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Labor policy – Europe"
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Apenko, Svetlana, Olga Kiriliuk, Elena Legchilina, and Tatiana Tsalko. "STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF RAISING THE RETIREMENT AGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE." In 4th International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2020 – Economics and Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eman.2020.69.
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The article presents the results of a study of the impact of pension reform in Russia on economic growth and quality of life in a digital economy, taking into account the experience of raising the retirement age in Europe. The aim of the study was to identify and analyze the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth in the context of the development of digitalization in Russia and a comparative analysis with European countries. Results: the studies conducted allowed us to develop a system of indicators characterizing the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth and the quality of life of the population in the context of digitalization. The authors found that raising the retirement age leads to a change in labor relations in Russia and Europe. The application of the proposed indicators can be used in the formation of a balanced state socio-economic policy in the field of institutional changes in the field of labor relations and raising the retirement age. The study was carried out under a grant from the RFBR № 19-010-00362 А.
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Erdei, Renáta J., and Anita R. Fedor R. Fedor. "The Phenomenon and the Characteristics of Precariate in Hungary: Labormarket situation, Precariate, Subjective health." In CARPE Conference 2019: Horizon Europe and beyond. Valencia: Universitat Politècnica València, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/carpe2019.2019.10284.
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Anita R. Fedor- Renáta J. Erdei Abstract The focus of our research is labor market integration and the related issues like learning motivation, value choices, health status, family formation and work attitudes. The research took place in the North Great Plain Region – Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county, Nyíregyháza, Nyíregyháza region, Debrecen, Cigánd district (exception), we used the Debrecen and the national database of the Graduate Tracking System. Target groups: 18-70 year-old age group, women and women raising young children, 15-29 year-old young age group, high school students (graduate ones) fresh university graduates. The theorethical frameworks of the precariate research is characterized by a multi-disciplinar approach, as this topic has sociological, economic, psychological, pedagogical, legal and health aspects. Our aim is to show whether There is relevance between the phenomenon of precariate and labor market disadvantage and how individual insecurity factors affect a person’s presence in the labor market. How the uncertainties in the workplace appear in different regions and social groups by expanding the theoretical framework.According to Standing precariate is typical to low gualified people. But I would like to see if it also typical to highly qualifiled young graduates with favourable conditions.It is possible or worth looking for a way out of the precarious lifestyle (often caused by objective reasons) by combining and using management and education.Are there definite features in the subjective state of health of groups with classic precariate characteristics? Results The research results demonstrate that the precarious characteristics can be extended, they are multi-dimensional.The personal and regional risk factors of labor market exclusion can develop both in different regions and social groups. Precarized groups cannot be connected exclusively to disadvantaged social groups, my research has shown that precarious characteristics may also appear, and the process of precarization may also start among highly qualified people. Precariate is a kind of subjective and collective crisis. Its depth largely depends on the economic environment, the economic and social policy, and the strategy and cultural conditions of the region. The results show, that the subjective health of classical precar groups is worse than the others.
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Ianos, Maria gratiela, and Ana voichita Tebeanu. "A STUDY ON INITIAL TRAINING AND COMPETENCE MODEL FOR TEACHERS IN PROFESSIONAL AND TECHNICAL EDUCATION." In eLSE 2018. Carol I National Defence University Publishing House, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.12753/2066-026x-18-150.
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Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) plays an important role in economic development, due to is its main orientation towards the world of work (UNESCO TVET Strategy 2016-2021) and the emphasis of the curriculum on the acquisition of employable skills. It's considered to be a tool for productivity enhancement and poverty reduction, at a global level (Europe 2020 communication, EU 2010, 2014). The dynamics of change in TVET in recent years has generated new perspectives / approaches regarding the role of the teacher and his/her responsibilities, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, a request for increasing the quality of initial teacher training (Maclean R., Pavlova M., 2013; ET2020 Working Group on Schools Policy (2014-15)). These changes have led to a growing need to adapt the initial teacher training programs in TVET to the current labor market requirements. The quality of teachers in TVET is reflected in the quality of graduates' training and reflects on all stakeholders. Thus, the teachers' role in TVET is essential in achieving quality education and especially in supporting / coordinating students in the transition process- from school to the labor market. The low performances of TVET graduates (relative to basic skills) and the situation on the labor market (compared to the low level of achieved specialized competencies) cast doubt on the quality of TVET, in general, and on the skills of TVET teachers in particular. This paper presents a study on the initial training of TVET teachers worldwide, also taking into account some countries in Europe, among these Romania. The characteristics of the teaching profession in TVET (focusing on the specific competencies for TVET) are highlighted, as well as the specificity of TVET in common competences. Also, the paper presents the implications of new changes (new learning approaches, new technologies in hiring companies, etc.) on the role of TVET teachers and competency profiles. The paper aims at updating the competencies of TVET teachers and proposes an analysis of the assessment in the graduation exams of the training programs. The article is based on a documentary study of some specialized papers on the initial teacher education. The results of the study are reflected in the outline of an up-to-date competency model for TVET teachers, taking into account its rapid pace of development, and in making a critical analysis of how the final evaluation is achieved within the initial training programs.
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Kesar, Oliver, Danijela Ferjanić Hodak, and Ema Roginić. "BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN TOURISM VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT PRACTICE IN CROATIA: A VOCATIONAL TEACHERS’ PERSPECTIVE." In Tourism in Southern and Eastern Europe 2021: ToSEE – Smart, Experience, Excellence & ToFEEL – Feelings, Excitement, Education, Leisure. University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.20867/tosee.06.27.
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Purpose – The main purpose of this research was to analyze the position of vocational education in Croatia from the perspective of tourism high school teaching staff. The main objective was to propose state regulations to limit the access of non-professionals to specialized jobs in tourism, and to enhance the status of tourism vocational education. Methodology – Desk research was focused on the analysis of available body of knowledge related to tourism employment and tourism education. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data. The research sample included 104 tourism high school vocational teachers in Croatia. Descriptive statistics were used for data evaluation. Findings – Although Croatia heavily relies on the economic benefits from tourism, its performance is often diminished due to a labor market mismatch in terms of specialization, knowledge and skills. This research determined that Croatia has a well-established and prospective high school education system for tourism, but lacks of image among employers and young generations. The state market regulation of tourism employment and the improvement of 'dual education system' of tourism education were strongly supported by respondents. Contribution – The theoretical contribution of this research is to determine long-term gaps in matching tourism education outcomes and tourism employment practices. Empirical contribution is derived from the analysis of attitudes and perception of tourism high school teaching staff on how to improve tourism education and employment practice. Practical contribution is in providing empirically proved policy recommendations, while social contribution can be recognized in promoting tourism vocational education and professionalism to young generations.
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Chilkina, Ksenia, and Natalia Dorodonova. "Catholic Social Doctrine and Economic Policy in Western Europe." In IX International Scientific and Practical Conference “Current Problems of Social and Labour Relations" (ISPC-CPSLR 2021). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.220208.076.
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Okunevičiūtė Neverauskienė, Laima, and Jolanta Sakalauskienė. "The Impact of Youth Policy Measures on the Labour Market." In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Education. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cbme.2017.077.
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Our modern society that is based on innovation is ever more quickly developing. Further and further more, one policy measures and actions are not sufficient in ones ability to solve emerging problems and the resulting challenges. Modern solutions require an inter-sectoral approach and coordination of different policy actors and systematic action. The aim of this article is to show the impact of youth policy as a separate policy area on employment policy, specifically in the Lithuanian labor market. The article focuses on the category of 15–29 year-old inactive youth. The article analyzes individual specific measures of youth policy which affect young people’s ability to integrate and reintegrate into the labor market, best practices from different European Union countries are revised too. The article aims to have an inter-sectoral lens in its outlook and methodology. Inter-sectoral interaction should be perceived as the most effective element in its ability to solve labor market problems of this particular case; particularly through the integration of youth policy measures and the employment policy field. The article analyzes the Lithuanian situation beginning with the start of the Youth Guarantee initiative in Lithuania. The final section of the article identifies conclusions and provides recommendations.
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Reel, Yeşim. "Problems of Privatisation and Regulation in Transition Economies." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00956.
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In spite of difficulties, most transition economies in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe now have private sectors whose relative size is comparable to the private sectors in Western European countries. The transition countries have had very different objectives, but most started privatisation more or less with the same policy, based on the experience of the United Kingdom, although this was soon to change. While most of the Eastern European countries were fast to adopt modern standards and regulations, some FSU countries have lagged behind. Along with a wide range of gains for producers and consumers, there have been drawbacks, such as social polarisation and forms of capture (of business, of the state). Unlike most analysis of transition, which considers major components, this paper looks at the microeconomics of transition, since this involves the creation of markets through the process of privatisation. In general, transition economies have to develop new institutions and polices to support the privatisation and restructuring. In addition to these, they require regulation, which has been under-developed and causes other, different problems, related to the development of new models. Therefore, the need for a new, third phase of transformation is highlighted. New initiatives on labour, capital and regulation issues become vital now in transition economies.
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Jelenko, Marie, and Georg Effenberger. "Work-related diseases as a challenge for institutionalized prevention in a changing world of work." In 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002622.
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The world of work is changing. This change becomes obvious by various developments, such as individualization, flexibilization or dissolution of boundaries, which also shape the discourse about subjectification of work (Beck, 1986, Kleemann et al., 2019, Sennett, 2008). Changing work requirements and demands made by employees are closely entwined with changes in health burdens of working people (Eurofound and EU-OSHA, 2014, Eurofound and ILO, 2017, Kratzer et al., 2011, Mauno et al., 2019, Siegrist, 2019). While the numbers of workplace accidents decline, an increasing emergence of work-related diseases can be observed. Contemporaneously, long-term health maintenance and employability is gaining importance in Europe as access conditions to welfare state benefits is becoming increasingly restricted (Böhle and Lessenich, 2018, Vogel, 2018).The prevention of accidents and diseases at workplace is historically rooted in the welfare state and associated with certain traditions of thought (Dixon, 1999, Esping-Andersen, 1990, Moses, 2019). In Austria, workplace disease prevention is based on regulations of occupational health and safety (OHS) as well as statutory accident insurance (Püringer, 2014). Interpretation and communication of these regulations through legally mandated institutions strongly influence companies‘ OHS prevention measures. However, in the face of tertiarization processes and the subjectification of work and in view of the “4 Fs” of change at work – feminization, flexibilization, fragmentation and financialization – traditional prevention discourses and practices run the risk of excluding growing parts of the working population (Kangas, 2010, Rubery, 2015). This paper takes up the developments described above and carries them forward using the results of Marie Jelenko's dissertation (2021) on current prevention discourses. The focus is on Austria's central state mediating bodies, the Labor Inspectorate and the Workers' Compensation Board. Within the methodological framework of Grounded Theory, Jelenko conducted qualitative interviews, additionally including a large number of relevant documents in her analysis (Bogner et al., 2014, Strauss, 1994, Wolff, 2010). The findings reveal conservative as well as dynamic approaches to work-related disease prevention at the level of intermediary social policy agencies.
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Forgacs, Csaba. "In what direction is agricultural specialization headed in Central and Eastern Europe? (2005-2016)." In 21st International Scientific Conference "Economic Science for Rural Development 2020". Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies. Faculty of Economics and Social Development, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.22616/esrd.2020.53.005.
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The paper deals with the main directions of specialization in Central and Eastern European Countries’ (CEECs, EU10) agriculture after the EU’s Eastward Enlargement. We analyse and compare growth and productivity advantages of specialized farm types by physical size (in hectare) in EU10 member-states to the EU10/27/15 average based on EUROSTAT data in the period of 2005-2016. We focus on exploring the main directions of specialization using such indicators as the number of specialized farms, land (Utilized Agricultural Area, UAA) and labour (Agricultural Working Unit, AWU) use on the input side, average farm size by land and labour use as well as area-, labour-, and total productivity on the output side. We conclude that the directions of specialization in farming in EU10 were based on the traditional farm production structure making the latter better able to adjust and take advantages of Common Agricultural Policy. Concerning production growth rate, the three leading specialization types of CEECs’ farms were: (i) cattle rearing and fattening, (ii) cereals, oilseed and protein crops and (iii) fruits and citrus fruits. These three specialization types of farms – in the same ranking order - also increased land (UAA) and labour (AWU) use well above the average. Specialized cereals farms and cattle rearing and fattening farms were also ranked in top three by number. Both cereals and fruits specialized farms have leading position in growth rate of land and labour use and also are in top three in growth rate of land area and total farm productivity. Cereals and fruits specialized farms also more than doubled labour productivity during the first decade after the EU’s Eastward enlargement but did not rank in the top three in this category.
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Đogo, Marko. "DERIVING THE IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND ITS CONNECTION WITH THE OTHER TWO IMPOSSIBLE TRINITIES." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2022.0022.
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The experience of Eastern European countries indicates that a country cannot simultaneously give up autonomy of monetary and fiscal policy and control of labour mobility without all three causing a reduction in potential GDP at the same time. Namely, if a country opts to peg its currency to the currency of a larger (more developed) country and pursues a restrictive fiscal policy, it will probably 2 lead the workforce to emigrate. This universal rule applies to both developing and developed countries. Nevertheless, the specificity of the developing countries' position is that once the labour force leaves the country, it will almost certainly never return. Therefore, labour mobility should be regarded as entirely different when it takes place between countries at distinct levels of development and when it serves as a mechanism for achieving an external balance between countries at similar income levels. As far as we understand, the just described experience of Eastern European developing countries has not yet been formalized anywhere as economic legality, i.e. trilemma. Thus, this paper can be an introduction to the theory of the impossible trinity of developing countries, explaining the basic concepts, connections between them and open questions.
Reports on the topic "Labor policy – Europe"
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Terrón-Caro, María Teresa, Rocio Cárdenas-Rodríguez, Fabiola Ortega-de-Mora, Kassia Aleksic, Sofia Bergano, Patience Biligha, Tiziana Chiappelli, et al. Policy Recommendations ebook. Migrations, Gender and Inclusion from an International Perspective. Voices of Immigrant Women, July 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.46661/rio.20220727_1.
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This publication is the third product of the Erasmus + Project entitled Voices of Immigrant Women (Project Number: 2020-1-ES01-KA203-082364). This product is based on a set of policy recommendations that provides practical guidance on intervention proposals to those with political responsibilities in governance on migration management and policies for integration and social inclusion, as well as to policy makers in the governance of training in Higher Education (University) at all levels. This is intended to promote the development of practical strategies that allow overcoming the obstacles encountered by migrant women during the integration process, favoring the construction of institutions, administrations and, ultimately, more inclusive societies. The content presented in this book proposes recommendations and intervention proposals oriented to practice to: - Improve Higher Education study plans by promoting the training of students as future active protagonists who are aware of social interventions. This will promote equity, diversity and the integration of migrant women. - Strengthen cooperation and creation of networks between academic organizations, the third sector and public administrations that are responsible for promoting the integration and inclusion of migrant women. - Promote dialogue and the exchange of knowledge to, firstly, raise awareness of human mobility and gender in Europe and, secondly, promote the participation and social, labor and civic integration of the migrant population. All this is developed through 4 areas in which this book is articulated. The first area entitled "Migrant women needs and successful integration interventions"; the second area entitled "Promoting University students awareness and civic and social responsibility towards migrant women integration"; the third area entitled "Cooperation between Higher Education institutions and third sector"; the fourth and last area, entitled "Inclusive Higher Education".
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Motel-Klingebiel, Andreas, and Gerhard Naegele. Exclusion and inequality in late working life in the political context of the EU. Linköping University Electronic Press, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/9789179293215.
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European societies need to increase the participation in work over the life course to support the provision of qualified labour and to meet the challenges for social security systems under the condition of their ageing populations. One of the key ambitions is to extend people’s working lives and to postpone labour market exit and retirement where possible. This requires informed policies, and the research programme EIWO – ‘Exclusion and Inequality in Late Working Life: Evidence for Policy Innovation towards Inclusive Extended Work and Sustainable Working Conditions in Sweden and Europe’ – aims to push the boundaries of knowledge about late working life and the potential of its inclusive and equal prolongation via a theoretically driven, gender-sensitive combination of multi-level perspectives. EIWO takes a life course approach on exclusion and inequality by security of tenure, quality of work, workplaces, and their consequences. It identifies life course policies, promoting lifelong learning processes and flexible adaptation to prolong working lives and to avoid increased exclusion and inequality. Moreover, it provides evidence for policies to ensure both individual, company and societal benefits from longer lives. To do so, EIWO orientates its analyses systematically to the macro-political contexts at the European Union level and to the policy goals expressed in the respective official statements, reports and plans. This report systematizes this ambitious approach. Relevant documents such as reports, green books and other publications of the European Commission (EC), the European Parliament (EP), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as well as those of social partners and research institutions, have been systematically scanned and evaluated. In addition, relevant decisions of European summits have been considered. The selection of documents claims completeness regarding relevant and generally available publication, while relevance is defined from the point of view of EIWO’s interests. It is the aim of this report to provide a sound knowledge base for EIWO’s analyses and impact strategies and to contribute to the emerging research on the connection between population ageing and the European policies towards productivity, inclusiveness, equity, resilience and sustainability. This report aims to answer the following questions: How are EIWO’s conceptual classification and programme objectives reflected in the European Union’s policy programming? How can EIWO’s analyses and impact benefit from a reference to current EU policy considerations, and how does this focus support the outline of policy options and the formulating of possible proposals to Swedish and European stakeholders? The present report was written during early 2022; analyses were finalized in February 2022 and represent the status until this date.
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Kostarakos, Ilias, and Petros Varthalitis. Effective tax rates in Ireland. ESRI, November 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/rs110.
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This article provides estimates of the effective tax rates in Ireland for the 1995-2017 period. We use these aggregate tax indicators to compare the developments in the Irish tax policy mix with the rest of the European Union countries and investigate any potential relation with Ireland’s macroeconomic performance. Our findings show that distortionary taxes, e.g. on factors of production, are significantly lower while less distortionary taxes, e.g. on consumption, are higher in Ireland than most European countries. Thus, the distribution of tax burden falls relatively more on consumption and to a lesser extent on labour than capital; while in the EU average the norm is the opposite. The descriptive analysis indicates that this shift in the Irish tax policy mix is correlated with the country’s strong economic performance.
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on Forced Displacement, Joint Data Center. REFUGEE EMERGENCIES AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS REFUGEES: SOME INSIGHTS FROM THE ACADEMIC LITERATURE. Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement (JDC), April 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.47053/jdc.290422.
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The conflict in Ukraine has generated a large inflow of refugees into European countries, with more than five million people having fled to neighboring countries. So far, the public response has been generally positive, with large shares of the European population being in favor of the policies implemented to host and support the Ukrainian refugees. In this note we look at the academic literature with the aim to: a) discuss which socioeconomic characteristics of the refugees are typically associated with positive or negative attitudes towards them; and, b) reflect on which policy measures can promote more inclusive and tolerant preferences. The evidence from the literature suggests that negative attitudes towards refugees can be widespread, but less so for those groups that are perceived to be in need of humanitarian help, are culturally closer to host communities, and more likely to contribute to the economies of the host country. Three policy measures to sustain a welcoming climate towards refugees emerge from the relevant literature: facilitate the interactions between host communities and those forcibly displaced; integrate the refugees into the society, including in the labor market; and provide simple, factual information about the refugees and their socioeconomic background.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias