Journal articles: 'Kelud Volcano (Indonesia) – Eruptions'

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Iguchi, Masato, Surono, Takeshi Nishimura, Muhamad Hendrasto, Umar Rosadi, Takahiro Ohkura, Hetty Triastuty, et al. "Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes." Journal of Disaster Research 7, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 26–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2012.p0026.

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We report methods, based on geophysical observations and geological surveys, for the prediction of eruptions and the evaluation of the activity of 4 volcanoes in Indonesia. These are Semeru, Guntur, Kelud and Sinabung volcanoes. Minor increases in tilt were detected by borehole tiltmeters prior to eruptions at the Semeru volcano depending on the seismic amplitude of explosion earthquakes. The results show the possibility of prediction of the type and magnitude of eruption and the effectiveness of observation with a high signalto-noise ratio. The establishment of background data is important for evaluating volcanic activity in longterm prediction. Typical distributions of volcanic and local tectonic earthquakes were obtained around the Guntur volcano, where geodetic monitoring by continuous GPS observation is valuable. The cumulative volume of eruptive products is valuable for evaluating the potential for future eruption. The eruptive rate of the Kelud volcano is ca 2×106m3/y (dense rock equivalent), but the volume of the 2007 eruption was only 2×107m3, suggesting a still high potential for eruption. Based on geological surveys and dating, an eruption scenario is proposed for the activity of Mt. Sinabung, where phreatic eruptions occurred in 2010 after a historically long dormancy.

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Maeno, Fukashi, Setsuya Nakada, Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto, Taketo Shimano, Natsumi Hokanishi, Akhmad Zaennudin, and Masato Iguchi. "Eruption Pattern and a Long-Term Magma Discharge Rate over the Past 100 Years at Kelud Volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 1 (February 1, 2019): 27–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0027.

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Kelud Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in Indonesia, with repeated explosive eruptions throughout its history. Here, we reconstructed the relationship between the repose period and the cumulative volume of erupted material over the past 100 years and estimated the long-term magma discharge rate and future eruptive potential and hazards. Tephra data and eruption sequences described in historical documents were used to estimate the volume and mass discharge rate. The volumes of the 1901, 1919, 1951, 1966, 1990, and 2014 eruptions were estimated as 51–296 × 106m3. The mass discharge rates were estimated to be on the order of 107kg/s for the 1919, 1951, and 2014 eruptions and the order of 106kg/s for the 1966 and 1990 eruptions. Based on a linear relationship between the repose period and cumulative erupted mass, the long-term mass discharge rate was estimated as ∼ 1.5 × 1010kg/year, explaining the features of the larger eruptions (1919, 1951, and 2014) but not those of the smaller eruptions (1966 and 1990). This estimate is relatively high compared to other typical basaltic-andesitic subduction-zone volcanoes. This result provides important insights into the evolution of magmatic systems and prediction of future eruptions at Kelud Volcano.

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Iguchi, Masato. "Special Issue on Integrated Study on Mitigation of Multimodal Disasters Caused by Ejection of Volcanic Products." Journal of Disaster Research 11, no. 1 (February 1, 2016): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2016.p0003.

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Volcanic eruptions induce often widely dispersed, multimodal flows such as volcanic ash, pyroclastics, layers, and lava. Lahars triggered by heavy rain may extend far beyond ash deposits. Indonesia, which has 127 volcanoes along its archipelago, is at high risk for such disasters. The 2010 Merapi volcano eruption, for example, generated pyroclastic flows up to 17 km from the summit along the Gendol River, killing over 300 residents. The February 13, 2014, eruption of the Kelud volcano produced a gigantic ash plume over 17 km high, dispersing tehpra widely over Java Island. Ash falls and dispersion closed 7 airports and caused many flights to be cancelled. Volcanoes in Japan have recently become active, with the 2014 phreatic eruption at the Ontake volcano leaving 63 hikers dead or missing. The eruption of the Kuchinoerabujima volcano on May 29, 2015, forced all island residents to be evacuated. All of these events undeerscore how underedeveloped Japan’s early warning alert levels remain. The Sakurajima volcano, currently Japan’s most active, maintained high activity in the first half of 2015. Ash from Janaury 2015, for example, was moved down the volcano’s slopes by extremely heavy rain in June and July, accumulating as thick sediment near villages. Regarding such situations of volcano countries, we will develop an integrated system to mitigate many kinds of disasters which are generated by volcanic eruptions and extended by rain fall and wind, based on scientific knowledge. We are developing an integrated warning system to be used by local and national governments to mitigate volcanic and sediment disasters. We are also creating measure against volcanic ash for airlines. This special issue summarizes basic scientific knowledge and technology on the present warning system to be used in the integrated system for decision-making.

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Iguchi, Masato, Setsuya Nakada, and Kuniaki Miyamoto. "Special Issue on Integrated Study on Mitigation of Multimodal Disasters Caused by Ejection of Volcanic Products: Part 2." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 1 (February 1, 2019): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0005.

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Our research project titled “Integrated study on mitigation of multimodal disasters caused by ejection of volcanic products” began in 2014 under SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) and is now coming to an end in 2019. Indonesia has 127 active volcanoes distributed along its archipelago making it a high risk location for volcano-related disasters. The target volcanoes in our study are Guntur, Galunggung, Merapi, Kelud, and Semeru in Java, and Sinabung in North Sumatra. Guntur and Galunggung are currently dormant and are potentially high-risk volcanoes. Merapi generated pyroclastic flows along the Gendol River in 2010, which resulted in over 300 casualties and induced frequent lahars. New eruptive activity of Merapi began in 2018. The 2014 eruption of Kelud formed a gigantic ash plume over 17 km high, dispersing ash widely over the island of Java. Semeru continued minor eruptive activity, accompanying a risk of a dome collapse. The aim of our research includes disaster mitigation of the Sinabung volcano, whose eruption began to form a lava dome at its summit at the end of 2013, followed by frequent pyroclastic flows for approximately 4 years, and the deposits became the source of rain-triggered lahars. Our goal is to implement SSDM (Support System for Decision-Making), which would allow us to forecast volcano-related hazards based on scales and types of eruptions inferred from monitoring data. This special issue collects fundamental scientific knowledge and technology for the SSDM as output from our project. The SSDM is an integrated system of monitoring, constructed scenarios, forecasting scale of eruption, simulation of sediment movement and volcanic ash dispersion in the atmosphere. X-band radars newly installed by our project in Indonesia were well utilized for estimation of spatial distribution not only of rain fall in catchments but also of volcanic ash clouds. Finally, we hope the SSDM will continue to be utilized under a consortium in Merapi, which was newly established in collaboration with our projects, and extended to other volcanoes.

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Niasari, Sintia Windhi, Lusia Rita Nugraheni, and Puspita Dian Maghfira. "The b-value of the Kelud Volcano in the Last Three Decades." E3S Web of Conferences 325 (2021): 01019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202132501019.

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Kelud volcano is located in the Kediri sub-district, East Java Province, Indonesia. This volcano is still active, with total population, in the radius of 10 km, is around 10 thousand people. Kelud volcano is a popular tourist destination. On the weekend, total visitor can reach 5,000 people per-day. These people are at high risk when the Kelud volcano erupts. The last eruption of the Kelud volcano occurred in 2014 and was explosive eruption. Previously, there was an effusive eruption in 2007. These two types of eruption have its own geo hazard risk. Thus, predict the eruption type could help hazard mitigation. In this study, two data sets of earthquakes, 1990-2007 and 2008-2020, were analysed to determine the b-value and its relationship to the eruption type of the Kelud volcano. The calculation of the b-value uses the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Calculation of the b-value in 2007, when there was an effusive eruption, showed a value of 2.27, while in 2014 (when there was an explosive eruption) was 1.85. After 2009, the curve of the b-value against time shows decrease. As a long term precursor of the Kelud activity, this b-value curve should be analysed continuously, besides volcano tectonic seismicity monitoring.

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Hidayat, Fahmi, Pitojo T. Juwono, Agus Suharyanto, Alwafi Pujiraharjo, Djoko Legono, Dian Sisinggih, David Neil, Masaharu Fujita, and Tetsuya Sumi. "Assessment of Sedimentation in Wlingi and Lodoyo Reservoirs: A Secondary Disaster Following the 2014 Eruption of Mt. Kelud, Indonesia." Journal of Disaster Research 12, no. 3 (May 29, 2017): 617–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2017.p0617.

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Wlingi and Lodoyo reservoirs in the Brantas River basin, Indonesia, provide numerous benefits including reliable irrigation water supply, flood control, power generation, fisheries and recreation. The function of both reservoirs particularly in relation to flood control has declined due to severe sedimentation that has reduced their storage capacities. The sedimentation in Wlingi and Lodoyo reservoirs is mainly caused by sediment inflow from the areas most affected by ejecta from eruptions of Mt. Kelud, one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. The main objective of this research is to assess the sedimentation problem in Wlingi and Lodoyo reservoirs, particularly as they are affected by eruptions of Mt Kelud. We performed reservoir bathymetric surveys and field surveys after the most recent eruption of Mt. Kelud in February 2014 and compared the results with surveys undertaken before the eruption. The assessment revealed that both reservoirs were severely affected by the 2014 eruption. The effective storage capacity of Wlingi reservoir in March 2013 was 2.01 Mm3and the survey in May 2015 indicated that the effective storage of Wlingi reservoir had decreased to 1.01 Mm3. Similarly, the effective storage capacity of Lodoyo reservoir in March 2013 was 2.72 Mm3, reduced to 1.33 Mm3in May 2015. These findings underpin the analysis of the impacts of the secondary disaster due to reservoir sedimentation following the volcanic eruption and the implications for mitigating and managing the risks for sustainable use of reservoirs to control floods, supply water, generate electricity, etc. To cope with the extreme sedimentation problem in Wlingi and Lodoyo reservoirs, diverse sediment management strategies have been applied in these reservoirs and their catchments. However sediment disaster management strategies for both reservoirs, an integral part of the Mt. Kelud Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Plan, require continuous maintenance and recurrent operations, and ongoing evaluation and improvement.

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Wardhani, Puspita Indra, Junun Sartohadi, and Sunarto Sunarto. "Dynamic Land Resources Management at the Mount Kelud, Indonesia." Forum Geografi 31, no. 1 (July 1, 2017): 56–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.v31i1.3612.

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There is a contradictive situation between the theory that believes that high volcanic hazard areas should be for limited production zones and those areas that are intensively utilised for several production activities. This paper tries to discuss that contradictive situation from both the perspective of natural hazards and natural resources, therefore, the best options for the land utilisation pattern might be formulated at these high volcanic hazards areas. We conducted landscape analysis that covers volcanic morphology, volcanic materials, and both natural and artificial processes that modify the morphology and materials characteristics. The natural processes occurring in the high volcanic hazard might cover non-volcanic processes such as erosion and landslide. The artificial processes were usually considered as land utilisation activities by the local community. In such areas where both natural and artificial processes occurred, we conducted in-depth interviews to assess the community perception on thread and benefits of the last Kelud Eruption in February 2014. We evaluated the current land resources utilisation and portrayed the local adaptive land resource utilisation. There were three types of land resources available at the active volcano: space, natural scenery, and volcanic materials. The availability of these land resources was in a dynamic condition both in terms of quality and quantity. Immediately after the eruption, the natural scenery made the area attractive as a tourist destination. Following the high intensity of rainfall, the volcanic materials might be used as high-quality construction materials. The available space might be utilised for any purposes after the situation became relatively stable. The current space was mostly used for agricultural enterprises which accommodates the physical and socio-cultural characteristics of the active volcano environment.

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Kasbani, Hendra Gunawan, Wendy McCausland, John Pallister, Masato Iguchi, and Setsuya Nakada. "The eruptions of Sinabung and Kelud volcanoes, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 382 (September 2019): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.07.008.

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Mastin, Larry G., and Alexa R. Van Eaton. "Comparing Simulations of Umbrella-Cloud Growth and Ash Transport with Observations from Pinatubo, Kelud, and Calbuco Volcanoes." Atmosphere 11, no. 10 (September 27, 2020): 1038. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101038.

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The largest explosive volcanic eruptions produce umbrella clouds that drive ash radially outward, enlarging the area that impacts aviation and ground-based communities. Models must consider the effects of umbrella spreading when forecasting hazards from these eruptions. In this paper we test a version of the advection–dispersion model Ash3d that considers umbrella spreading by comparing its simulations with observations from three well-documented umbrella-forming eruptions: (1) the 15 June 1991 eruption of Pinatubo (Philippines); (2) the 13 February 2014 eruption of Kelud (Indonesia); and (3) phase 2 of the 22–23 April 2015 eruption of Calbuco (Chile). In volume, these eruptions ranged from several cubic kilometers dense-rock equivalent (DRE) for Pinatubo to about one tenth for Calbuco. In mass eruption rate (MER), they ranged from 108–109 kg s−1 at Pinatubo to 9–16 × 106 kg s−1 at Calbuco. For each case we ran simulations that considered umbrella growth and ones that did not. All umbrella-cloud simulations produced a cloud whose area was within ~25% of the observed cloud by the end of the eruption. By the eruption end, the simulated areas of the Pinatubo, Kelud, and Calbuco clouds were 851, 53.2, and 100 × 103 km2 respectively. These areas were 2.2, 2.2, and 1.5 times the areas calculated in simulations that ignored umbrella growth. For Pinatubo and Kelud, the umbrella simulations provided better agreement with the observed cloud area than the non-umbrella simulations. Each of these simulations extended 24 h from the eruption start. After the eruption ended, the difference in cloud area (umbrella minus non-umbrella) at Pinatubo persisted for many hours; at Kelud it diminished and became negative after 14 h and at Calbuco it became negative after ~23 h. The negative differences were inferred to result from the fact that non-umbrella simulations distributed ash over a wider vertical extent in the plume, and that wind shear spread the cloud out in multiple directions. Thus, for some smaller eruptions, wind shear can produce a larger cloud than might be produced by umbrella spreading alone.

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Nasution, N. J. F., K. Sembiring, and Z. Sitorus. "Analysis of the Structure of Ceramic Materials of Clay, Mount Kelud Volcanic Ash and Sea Water." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2019, no. 1 (October 1, 2021): 012103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2019/1/012103.

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Abstract Based on the durability of ancient roman buildings that are 2000 years old and are always exposed to sea waves. In which there is a mixed reaction of volcanic rock with seawater. Indonesia has many active volcanoes, this is because Indonesia is located at the confluence of the Eurasian and Indo-Australian tectonic plates. One of the mountains formed in the area where the plates meet is still active, the mountain is Mount Kelud. Mount Kelud is a volcano in the province of East Java, Indonesia, which is classified as active. The existence of volcanic ash resulting from the eruption of Mount Kelud is quite potential as a ceramic material. So the purpose of this research is to make a ceramic construction made from clay, volcanic ash from Mount Kelud and sea water by the method of die pressing and sintering at a temperature of 1000°C. So it can be known how the physical properties, mechanics and especially the crystal structure formed from ceramic samples. The results of the research that has been carried out are that the highest density value is in the composition of a mixture of 50% volcanic ash and 50% seawater, the highest compressive strength value is also found in the composition of a mixture of 50% volcanic ash and 50% seawater, and from the XRD results, the structure The crystal formed is hexagonal with the phase formed is SiO2.

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Nakada, Setsuya, Fukashi Maeno, Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto, Natsumi Hokanishi, Taketo Shimano, Akhmad Zaennudin, and Masato Iguchi. "Eruption Scenarios of Active Volcanoes in Indonesia." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 1 (February 1, 2019): 40–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0040.

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Eruption scenarios were prepared as possible sequences in event trees for six active volcanoes in Indonesia, that are located near populated areas or have erupted in recent years (Galunggung, Guntur, Kelud, Merapi, Semeru, and Sinabung). The event trees prepared here show sequences of possible eruption phenomena without probabilities on branches and cover sequences experienced in historical and pre-historical eruptions based on archives and field research results. Changing magma discharge rates during eruption sequences were considered for the event tree of Merapi. This conceptual event tree can also be used as a short-term event tree in which forecasting the coming eruption became possible with geophysical and geochemical monitoring data. Eruption event trees prepared for selected time windows cannot illustrate all plausible hazards and risks associated with an eruption. Therefore, hazards and risks generated from an eruption should be considered in different domains from the event tree.

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Nugraheni, Lusia Rita, Agung Harijoko, Wiwit Suryanto, and Hetty Triastuty. "Permutation entropy variation for 2007 effusive dome-forming eruption period of Kelud Volcano, Indonesia." E3S Web of Conferences 325 (2021): 01010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202132501010.

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The complexity of a system recorded in time series data can be measured statistically using permutation entropy (PE). The state of a system (e.g. regular, chaotic, random, etc.) that underlies the appearance of variations in time series can be determined with PE. Since volcanoes are considered as the complex dynamical system controlled by interactions of many processes. Permutation entropy can be applied to study the system mechanism of volcano. We utilized PE to study system mechanism of Kelud volcano in 2007 dome-forming eruption period, from 3 (KWH; KLD; UMBK) seismic stations with different distances from the crater lake. Then, we want to compare the results. The result of study shows that the PE pattern for each station is different. The unique PE pattern that can be used as an eruption precursor is only shown at KWH and KLD stations. This pattern began to appear 2.7 days before the eruption on 3 November 2007. Data from UMBK station doesn’t show unique PE pattern. The factors such as sensor distance from magmatic activity center, size, and type of eruption probably influenced the final PE result. Using PE as the addition to volcano monitoring can maximize efforts in mitigation activities.

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Hidayati, Sri, Hetty Triastuty, Iyan Mulyana, Sucahyo Adi, Kazuhiro Ishihara, Ahmad Basuki, Heri Kuswandarto, Budi Priyanto, and Akhmad Solikhin. "Differences in the seismicity preceding the 2007 and 2014 eruptions of Kelud volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 382 (September 2019): 50–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.10.017.

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Tanaka, Hiroshi L., Masato Iguchi, and Setsuya Nakada. "Numerical Simulations of Volcanic Ash Plume Dispersal from Kelud Volcano in Indonesia on February 13, 2014." Journal of Disaster Research 11, no. 1 (February 1, 2016): 31–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2016.p0031.

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In order to evaluate airborne ash densities, a real-time volcanic ash dispersion model, PUFF, is applied to the February 13, 2014 eruption of Kelud volcano in Indonesia. The emission rate of the ash mass from the vent is estimated based on the empirical formulae tested at Sakurajima volcano using ground deformation and seismic monitoring data.According to the result of the PUFF model simulation, the circular shape of the anvil ash cloud 17 km in height extends during the first two hours over a radius of 200 km from the volcano. The core region within 50 km of the volcano shows an airborne ash density of 1000 mg/m3. Three hours after the initial eruption, the area with 100 mg/m$^bm 3$ extends 300 km to the west, covering Yogyakarta Airport. Due to low-level winds, Surabaya Airport to the northeast also becomes part of the area with 100 mg/m3. The result of the ash plume dispersal 7 hours into the eruption indicates that the entire island of Java is in the danger zone for commercial airliners, as ash exceeds 10 mg/m3. Although satellite images show that the ash plume is located only in the southern half of western Java, the simulation results quantitatively indicate much wider extents of the aircraft danger zone.

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Cassidy, M., S. K. Ebmeier, C. Helo, S. F. L. Watt, C. Caudron, A. Odell, K. Spaans, et al. "Explosive Eruptions With Little Warning: Experimental Petrology and Volcano Monitoring Observations From the 2014 Eruption of Kelud, Indonesia." Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 20, no. 8 (August 2019): 4218–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gc008161.

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Winarni, Sri, Agus Khoirul Anam, and Rizal An Akhiruna. "Disaster Risk Reduction (Mitigation) Eruption of Kelud Mountain by the Society In The Area Of Disaster-Prone Areas (KRB) III Blitar Regency." Jurnal Ners dan Kebidanan (Journal of Ners and Midwifery) 3, no. 3 (December 1, 2016): 272–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.26699/jnk.v3i3.art.p272-277.

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Indonesia is a country that has great case of natural disasters. One of disasters that recentlyoccurred are the volcanic eruptions. Based on the interview with volunteer of kelud anchor in December2015, there were communities that were less understand about disaster risk reduction efforts of thevolcano. The purpose of the research was the efforts of disaster risk reduction (Mitigation) eruption ofKelud Mountain by the society in the area of Disaster-prone Areas (KRB) III Blitar Regency. Thisresearch used descriptive research design. The population of the research was all members of thecommunity who live in area III KRB Kelud in Modangan. The sample was 60 people taken by quotasampling. The data collection was done by providing a closed-ended questionnaire multiple choicequestions. Time data retrieval performed on 15-20 March 2016. The results showed that the public hadthe ability to either IE of 50% (30 people), enogh ability as 15% (10 people) and had less abilities i.e.as 35% (20 people). It was affected by the dissemination of prevention and disaster risk reduction.Recomendation for stakeholder of Modangan and Karangrejo village was to do socialitation in everyor when there was sign of Kelud mountain activity.

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Nakada, Setsuya, Akhmad Zaennudin, Fukashi Maeno, Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto, and Natsumi Hokanishi. "Credibility of Volcanic Ash Thicknesses Reported by the Media and Local Residents Following the 2014 Eruption of Kelud Volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Disaster Research 11, no. 1 (February 1, 2016): 53–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2016.p0053.

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Ash thicknesses reported by the media and witnessed by local residents may be exaggerated. A good example of such exaggeration is ash thicknesses reported following the Plinian eruption on February 13, 2014 at Kelud volcano, East Java, Indonesia. Volcanic ash thicknesses reported by the media and local residents were generally by 2–7 times larger than the actual values measured by volcanologists. Sensational news reports and strong fresh impressions may cause such exaggeration, or these exaggerated values may simply represent abnormal concentrations of volcanic ash. It is important to pay careful attention to the parameters that are being documented by the media and by people who do not have scientific backgrounds when utilizing such reports in scientific analyses.

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Jibiki, Yasuhito, Dicky Pelupessy, and Kanako Iuchi. "Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship Between Livelihood Disruptions and Displacement Intentions Following a Volcanic Eruption: A Case from the 2014 Mt. Kelud Eruption." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 8 (November 1, 2019): 1066–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p1066.

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The current study explores the possible relationship between livelihood disruptions and displacement intentions in the short and long term, following a volcanic eruption. Previous studies in a similar context suggest that livestock breeding and farming remain important to the affected population in terms of livelihood maintenance, even when eruptions severely interrupt these activities. Other research findings suggest people consider eruptions opportunities to improve income through increased crop cultivations. Previous studies have concluded that people prefer to return to agricultural and farming activities, even if eruptions significantly disturb them. Little research, however, quantitatively addresses the impact of eruptions on income or explores the relationship between livelihood disruption and relocation intention. To understand this relationship, we conducted a questionnaire survey of villagers in the Kediri and Blitar districts of Indonesia who received an evacuation order during the 2014 Mt. Kelud eruption. We collected and analyzed the data from 440 valid responses. One of our major findings supports earlier research findings vis-à-vis the association between agricultural losses and villagers’ decisions to relocate in the long term. Our data suggest that villagers with no relocation intention had experienced larger agricultural losses, thus suggesting that agricultural losses do not constitute a large factor affecting relocation intention. Likewise, we found there to be no statistically significant relationship between livestock damages/losses and displacement intentions. These findings suggest the importance of further research into causal relationships among economic loss, farming damages and losses, and displacement intentions.

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Nakamichi, Haruhisa, Masato Iguchi, Hetty Triastuty, Muhamad Hendrasto, and Iyan Mulyana. "Differences of precursory seismic energy release for the 2007 effusive dome-forming and 2014 Plinian eruptions at Kelud volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 382 (September 2019): 68–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.08.004.

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Paripurno, Eko Teguh, and Arif Rianto Budi Nugroho. "The effectiveness of community-based early warning system of Kelud volcano eruption 2014." MATEC Web of Conferences 229 (2018): 03015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201822903015.

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Kelud Volcano is an active volcano in Indonesia. About 150 million meter cubic has erupted on 13 February 2013 at 22.30. People were successfully responded to the most significant eruption in history without any fatalities, by doing less than 2 hours evacuation, from 21.15 to 22.50. This research was conducted to show the success of the community in building the resilience process by applying a good system of community-based early warning. The study was conducted through documentary review and field assessment with participatory research methods, including mapping, transects, and historical studies. The result of research show that the community has four aspects of early warning system has been successfully fulfilled by communities. Those four aspects are (1) Knowledge of risk; (2) Monitoring and warning service; (3) Dissemination and communication; (4) Ability of the people to respond. Systematic data collection and risk assessment, with its pattern and tendency factors, ensured that disaster and vulnerability are well-known. Monitoring parameter to create accurate and timely pre-estimation has been ensured by disaster monitoring and early warning service. Communicating information and early warning ensured that the warning could be received by everyone that affected by disaster, risk, and its warning can be understood and useful. Establishing the people’s responsibility to ensure the response must be renewed, ability and local knowledge can be utilized, and people are ready to response warning. Simulation and training activities were implemented by the people within the disaster-prone area. Finally, the powerfulness of community preparedness can manage the tremendous level of a volcano eruption.

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Thouret, J. C., K. E. Abdurachman, J. L. Bourdier, and S. Bronto. "Origin, characteristics, and behaviour of lahars following the 1990 eruption of Kelud volcano, eastern Java (Indonesia)." Bulletin of Volcanology 59, no. 7 (June 23, 1998): 460–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004450050204.

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Widodo, Edi, and H. Hastuti. "Local Wisdom in Responding to Disaster of Merapi Eruption: Case Study of Wonolelo Village." Geosfera Indonesia 4, no. 3 (November 25, 2019): 264. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/geosi.v4i3.14066.

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The people who live in the Merapi area have been going on for years. Merapi is the most active volcano in Central Java that can threaten the community, but the community still exists today, of course, having local wisdom in responding to the eruption of Merapi. This study aims to determine the local wisdom of Wonolelo Village before, during, and after the Merapi eruption. In addition, to find out the historical relationship of the Merapi eruption to local wisdom and the challenges faced by Wonolelo Village in maintaining the sustainability of local wisdom. This research was used as a descriptive qualitative method. The method of collecting data is done through observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation. Data sources of this study are community leaders, spiritual leaders, and people who are more than 70 years old. Analysis of the data used is sourced triangulation based on the Miles & Huberman model. The results showed that local wisdom in responding to the Merapi eruption in Wonolelo Village still exists today. Local wisdom is divided into three segments, namely before, during, and after the eruption of Merapi. Local wisdom before the Merapi eruption is a notification that Merapi eruption activity will occur. Local wisdom in Wonolelo Village has challenges in the form of modernization and not running the local wisdom relay to young people. Keywords: Disaster, Local wisdom, Merapi volcano. References Andreastuti, S.D., Newhall, C., Dwiyanto, J. (2006). Menelusuri Kebenaran Letusan Gunung Merapi 1006. Jurnal Geologi Indonesia, Vol. 1, No. 4, Hal. 201-207. Andreastuti, S., Paripurno, E., Gunawan, H., Budianto, A., Syahbana, D., & Pallister, J. (2019). Character of community response to volcanic crises at sinabung and kelud volcanoes. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 382, 298-310. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.01.022 Atmojo, S. E., Rusilowati, A., Dwiningrum, S. I. A., & Skotnicka, M. (2018). The reconstruction of disaster knowledge through thematic learning of science, environment, technology, and society integrated with local wisdom. Jurnal Pendidikan IPA Indonesia, 7(2), 204-213. doi:10.15294/jpii.v7i2.14273 Bencana, B. N. P. (2010). Peraturan Kepala Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana Nomor 17 Tahun 2010 Tentang Pedoman Umum Penyelenggaraan Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi Pasca Bencana. Jakarta: BNPB. Bencana, B. P. B. (2010). Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Daerah. Magelang: BPBD. Geologi, BPPTK (2018). Badan Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi. Jakarta: BPPTKG Geologi, BPPTK (2019). Badan Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi. Jakarta: BPPTKG Bardintzeff, J.M. (1984). Merapi volcano (java, Indonesia) and merapi type nuee ardente. Bull volcanol, Vol. 47, No. 3, Hal. 432-446. Boyolali, B. P. S. K. (2018). Kabupaten Boyolali dalam Angka. Boyolali : Badan Pusat Statistik Cahyadi, A. (2013). Pengelolaan lingkungan zamrud khatulistiwa. Yogyakarta: Pintal. Cho, S.E., Won, S., & Kim, S. (2016). Living in harmony with disaster: exploring volcanic hazard vulnerability in Indonesia. Sustainability, Vol. 8, Hlm. 1-13. Daly, P. (2015). Embedded wisdom or rooted problems? aid workers' perspectives on local social and political infrastructure in post-tsunami aceh. Disasters, 39(2), 232-257. doi:10.1111/disa.12105 Dibyosaputro, S., Hadmoko, D.S., Cahyadi, A., & Nugraha, H. (2016). Gunung merapi: kebencanaan dan pengurangan risikonya. Yogyakarta: Badan Penerbit Fakultas Geografi (BPFG) Universitas Gadjah Mada. Fatkhan, M. (2006). Kearifan lingkungan masyarakat lereng gunung merapi. Aplikasia, Jurnal Aplikasi Ilmu-ilmu Agama, Vol. 7, No. 2, Desember, Hal. 107-121. Gertisser, R., Charbonnier, S.J., Keller, J., & Quidelleur, X. (2012). The geological evolution of Merapi vulcano, Central Java, Indonesia. Bull Volcanol, Vol. 74. Hal. 1213-1233. Haba, J. (2008). Bencana alam dalam perspektif lokal dan perspektif kristiani. LIPI, Vol. 34, No. 1, Hal. 25-49. Hardoyo, S.R., Marfai, M.A., Ni’mah, N.M., Mukti, R.Y., Zahro, Q., & Halim, A. (2011). Strategi adaptasi masyarakat terhadap bencana banjir rob di pekalongan. Yogyakarta: Magister Perencanaan Pengelolaan Pesisir dan Daerah Aliran Sungai, Cahaya Press. Ikeda, S., & Nagasaka, T. (2011). An emergent framework of disaster risk governance towards innovating coping capability for reducing disaster risks in local communities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2(2) doi:10.1007/s13753-011-0006-7 Inaotombi, S., & Mahanta, P. C. (2019). Pathways of socio-ecological resilience to climate change for fisheries through indigenous knowledge. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 25(8), 2032-2044. doi:10.1080/10807039.2018.1482197 Klaten, B. P. S. K. (2018). Kabupaten Klaten dalam Angka. Klaten : Badan Pusat Statistik Kusumasari, B., & Alam, Q. (2012). Local wisdom-based disaster recovery model in indonesia. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 21(3), 351-369. doi:10.1108/09653561211234525 Lestari, P., Kusumayudha, S. B., Paripurno, E. T., & Jayadianti, H. (2016). Environmental communication model for disaster mitigation of mount sinabung eruption karo regency of north sumatra. Information (Japan), 19(9B), 4265-4270. Magelang, B. P. S. K. (2018). Kabupaten Magelang dalam Angka. Boyolali : Badan Pusat Statistik Marfai, M.A. (2011). Jakarta flood hazard and community participation on disaster preparedness. Prosiding dalam seminar Community preparedness and disaster management, center for religious and cross-cultural studies, UGMI, no. 2/2011 (december), Hlm, 209-221. Marfai, M.A., & Hizbaron, D.R. (2011). Community’s adaptive capacity due to coastal flooding in semarang coastal city, Indonesia. International Journal of Seria Geografie, Annals of the Univeristy of Oradea. E-ISSN 2065-1619. Year XX. Mulyaningsih, S., Sampurno, Zaim, Y., Puradimaja, D.J., Bronto, S., & Siregar, D.A. (2006). Perkembangan geologi pada kuwarter awal sampai masa sejarah di dataran yogyakarta. Jurnal Geologi Indonesia, Vol. 1, No. 2, Juni, Hal. 103-113. Permana, S. A., Setyowati, D. L., Slamet, A., & Juhadi. (2017). Society management in manage economic after merapi disaster. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 15(7), 1-10 Preece, K., Gertisser, R., Barclay, J., Berlo, K., Herd, R.A., & Facility, E.I.M. (2014). Pre and syneruptive degassing and crystallisation processes of the 2010 and 2006 eruptions of merapi volcano, indonesia. Contrib Mineral Petrol, Vol. 168: No. 1061, Hal. 1-25, DOI 10.1007/s00410-014-1061-z. Ridwan, N.A. (2007). Landasan keilmuan kearifan lokal. Jurnal study islam dan budaya, Vol. 5, No. 1. Hlm. 27-38. Rokib, M. (2013). Teologi Bencana: Studi Santri Tanggap Bencana. Yogyakarta: Buku Pintal. Sawangan, B. P. S. K. (2018). Kecamatan Sawangan dalam Angka. Sawangan : Badan Pusat Statistik Setiawan, B., Innatesari, D. K., Sabtiawan, W. B., & Sudarmin, S. (2017). The development of local wisdom-based natural science module to improve science literation of students. Jurnal Pendidikan IPA Indonesia, 6(1), 49-54. doi:10.15294/jpii.v6i1.9595 Sibarani, R. (2013). Pembentukan karakter berbasis kearifan lokal. Online, http://www.museum.pusaka.nias.org/2013/02/pembentukan-karakter-berbasis-kearifan.html. Diunduh tanggal 10 october 2019. Sleman, B. P. S. K. (2018). Kabupaten Sleman dalam Angka. Sleman : Badan Pusat Statistik Syahputra, H. (2019). Indigenous knowledge representation in mitigation process: A study of communities’ understandings of natural disasters in aceh province, indonesia. Collection and Curation, 38(4), 94-102. doi:10.1108/CC-11-2017-0046 Voight, B., Constantine, E.K., Siswowidjoyo, S., & Torley, R. (2000). Historical eruptions of merapi vulcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768-1998. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Vol. 100, Hal. 69–138. Wilson, T.; Kaye, G., Stewart, C. and Cole, J. (2007). Impacts of the 2006 eruption of merapi volcano, Indonesia, on agriculture and infrastructure. GNS Science Report, 2007/07 Hal. 1-69. Copyright (c) 2019 Geosfera Indonesia Journal and Department of Geography Education, University of Jember This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share A like 4.0 International License

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Nakamichi, Haruhisa, Masato Iguchi, Hetty Triastuty, Hery Kuswandarto, Iyan Mulyana, Umar Rosadi, Hendra Gunawan, et al. "A Newly Installed Seismic and Geodetic Observational System at Five Indonesian Volcanoes as Part of the SATREPS Project." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 1 (February 1, 2019): 6–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0006.

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“Integrated Study on Mitigation of Multimodal Disasters Caused by Ejection of Volcanic Products” Project was launched in March 2014 for the Galunggung, Guntur, Kelud, Merapi, and Semeru volcanoes. The objectives of the project include the development of an observational system for the prediction and real-time estimations of the discharge rate of volcanic products. Under the project, a team from the Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) and the Balai Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi (BPPTKG) initiated the installation of a digital seismic and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observational network for the volcanoes in December 2014, and finished the installation in September 2015. The seismic and GNSS data are transmitted by wireless local area networks (WLANs) from the stations to an observatory at each target volcano. We introduced three Windows PC software for data analysis: the first for estimating the equivalent rate of ejected ash from a volcano, the second for continuous smoothing of tilt data and detecting inflation and deflation in the volcanic sources, and the third for continuously evaluating eruption urgency to predict the eruption time. The seismic and GNSS data were routinely transmitted to the Support Systems of Decision Making (SSDM) at CVGHM or BPPTKG. Data completeness varied from volcano to volcano; for example, the data acquired for Kelud volcano were relatively stable, while those for Merapi volcano were problematic, owing to a communication disruption in the WLAN. We obtained the seismic and GNSS data at the target volcanoes in the observation period since 2015 when they have been relatively quiet.

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Nakashima, Yuki, Kosuke Heki, Akiko Takeo, Mokhamad N. Cahyadi, Arif Aditiya, and Kazunori Yoshizawa. "Atmospheric resonant oscillations by the 2014 eruption of the Kelud volcano, Indonesia, observed with the ionospheric total electron contents and seismic signals." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 434 (January 2016): 112–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.029.

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Maeno, Fukashi, Setsuya Nakada, Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto, Taketo Shimano, Natsumi Hokanishi, Akhmad Zaennudin, and Masato Iguchi. "A sequence of a plinian eruption preceded by dome destruction at Kelud volcano, Indonesia, on February 13, 2014, revealed from tephra fallout and pyroclastic density current deposits." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 382 (September 2019): 24–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.03.002.

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Zuev, Vladimir V., Vladimir D. Burlakov, Aleksei V. Nevzorov, Vladimir L. Pravdin, Ekaterina S. Savelieva, and Vladislav V. Gerasimov. "30-year lidar observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer state over Tomsk (Western Siberia, Russia)." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17, no. 4 (February 28, 2017): 3067–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3067-2017.

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Abstract. There are only four lidar stations in the world which have almost continuously performed observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer (SAL) state over the last 30 years. The longest time series of the SAL lidar measurements have been accumulated at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) since 1973, the NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton, Virginia) since 1974, and Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany) since 1976. The fourth lidar station we present started to perform routine observations of the SAL parameters in Tomsk (56.48° N, 85.05° E, Western Siberia, Russia) in 1986. In this paper, we mainly focus on and discuss the stratospheric background period from 2000 to 2005 and the causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk in the 2006–2015 period. During the last decade, volcanic aerosol plumes from tropical Mt. Manam, Soufrière Hills, Rabaul, Merapi, Nabro, and Kelut and extratropical (northern) Mt. Okmok, Kasatochi, Redoubt, Sarychev Peak, Eyjafjallajökull, and Grímsvötn were detected in the stratosphere over Tomsk. When it was possible, we used the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model to assign aerosol layers observed over Tomsk to the corresponding volcanic eruptions. The trajectory analysis highlighted some surprising results. For example, in the cases of the Okmok, Kasatochi, and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, the HYSPLIT air mass backward trajectories, started from altitudes of aerosol layers detected over Tomsk with a lidar, passed over these volcanoes on their eruption days at altitudes higher than the maximum plume altitudes given by the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program. An explanation of these facts is suggested. The role of both tropical and northern volcanic eruptions in volcanogenic aerosol loading of the midlatitude stratosphere is also discussed. In addition to volcanoes, we considered other possible causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk, i.e., the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) events and smoke plumes from strong forest fires. At least two PSC events were detected in 1995 and 2007. We also make an assumption that the Kelut volcanic eruption (Indonesia, February 2014) could be the cause of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk during the first quarter of 2015.

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Astuti, Vitaria Wahyu, and Rimawati Rimawati. "Kelud Community Activities in Disaster Management." Journal for Quality in Public Health 5, no. 1 (November 23, 2021): 339–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.30994/jqph.v5i1.270.

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Background: Society is an important element in a nation, especially in disaster management. Based on the law, one of the obligations of the community in disaster management is to carry out disaster management activities so that this requires every Indonesian citizen to play an active role in disaster management activities. The purpose of this study was to determine the activities carried out by the Kelud slope community in disaster management that had been carried out. Methods : design of this research is a qualitative phenomenological study, data collection is carried out using online Focus Group Discussion. The participants in this study were good community leaders consisting of government elements, disaster preparedness teams, and the general public. Data analysis was carried out based on a qualitative research design. Results: The results of this study show that community activities in disaster management are following the experiences that have been carried out in the pre-disaster, during, and post-disaster phases. Conclusion : Communities in the Kelud slope area are active in volcanic eruption disaster management activities that are resilient in dealing with volcanic eruptions.

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Astuti, Vitaria Wahyu, and Rimawati Rimawati. "Disaster Management In Kelud Community." STRADA Jurnal Ilmiah Kesehatan 9, no. 2 (November 1, 2020): 1078–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.30994/sjik.v9i2.427.

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Indonesia is called a disaster laboratory for the whole world this is because all types of disasters have occurred. One of the natural disasters that often occurs in Indonesia is Mount erupting, this is because there are 127 active volcanoes, one of which is Mount Kelud which is in Kediri East Java. The purpose of this research was to find out how disaster management in the Kelud community in facing Mount Kelud erupting. The design of this research was a qualitative phenomenological study. The population was the Kelud community in Kepung and Puncu districts. The number of participants was 15 people. The data collection process was carried out with online Focus Discussion Group guidelines. Data analysis had identified two important themes in disaster management in the Kelud community. Community in Kelud that is able to live in peace with disasters as evidenced by an understanding of disaster management carried out

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Rahayu, Hayu, Suharyanto Suharyanto, and Sri Sangkawati. "Analisa Potensi Aliran Lahar Kali Putih, Gunungapi Kelud." Borneo Engineering : Jurnal Teknik Sipil 4, no. 2 (December 31, 2020): 147–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.35334/be.v4i2.1401.

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Kelud Volcano is one of the active volcanoes and located in East Java. After the eruption, Kelud Volcano left a number of volcanic materials from the rock, sand and the ash on residential land, plantations and the surrounding area. The main problem is the eruption of Kelud Volcanoes has the potential to experience an increase in the frequency of eruptions and there has been no development of a regional reconstruction model for secondary impacts due to eruptions in the field of water resources infrastructure. Based on these problems, a test of the Sabo and modular hydraulic physical models will be planned. This study discusses the identification of the location and volume of sediments that have the potential to become Kali Putih lava flows from Kelud Volcanoes. The Takahashi analysis method is used to analyze the estimated excess volume of the target sediment which must be controlled by sabo technology. Identification of sediment transport zones is obtained from the classification of slope on existing buildings obtained from satellite imagery. The results of the analysis are as follows: 1.) Sediment transport areas in the Putih Watershed have an area of 863 km2. 2.) The total volume of Kali Putih sediment that has the potential to become cold lava after the eruption is 4,139,414.23 m3. 3.) Sabo and modular hydraulic physical model testing is required. 4) A model of regional reconstruction is needed for secondary impacts due to eruptions in the water resources field. 5) New sabo plan planning is needed

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Lestiani, Diah Dwiana, Revi Apryani, Linda Lestari, Muhayatun Santoso, Eko Prabowo Hadisantoso, and Syukria Kurniawati. "Characteristics of Trace Elements in Volcanic ash of Kelud Eruption in East Java, Indonesia." Indonesian Journal of Chemistry 18, no. 3 (August 30, 2018): 457. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/ijc.26876.

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The eruption of Mount Kelud that occurred on February 13, 2014, ejected a huge plume of ash and sand exceeding 26 km into the air which moved west over the island. The elements content in volcanic ash is important information for further study such as the possibility to utilize the ash. In this study, the volcanic ashes collected from four affected areas in Java were analyzed using neutron activation analysis (NAA) with HPGe detector and X-ray fluorescence. Method validation was applied using the standard reference material SRM NIST 2711a Montana Soil with recovery and accuracy in a good agreement for all elements. The analysis results of volcanic ashes showed a wide range of elements, major elements Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Si and Ti, trace elements As, Cd, Cu, Co, Cr, V, Zn, Hf, Th and U, and rare earth elements were identified. The results showed heavy metals As, Cd, Cu, Co, Cr, and Pb were ranged 3.23–4.42, 17.63–24.09, 49.26–77.10, 10.86–16.03, 11.19–17.79 and 31.4–42.7 mg/kg, respectively, while rare earth elements such as Ce, Eu, La, and Sm were 9.84–18.43, 0.73–1.02, 2.25–5.66 and 1.34–2.63 mg/kg respectively. Comparison with other volcanic ashes from Indonesia such as Merapi and Sinabung and world volcanic ashes were applied. The results of the characteristic of elements in Kelud volcanic ash would be valuable information as reference data for their potential utilization.

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Vandemeulebrouck, J., J. C. Sabroux, M. Halbwachs, Surono, N. Poussielgue, J. Grangeon, and J. Tabbagh. "Hydroacoustic noise precursors of the 1990 eruption of Kelut Volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 97, no. 1-4 (April 2000): 443–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(99)00176-6.

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Bourdier, Jean-Louis, Indyo Pratomo, Jean-Claude Thouret, Georges Boudon, and Pierre M. Vincent. "Observations, stratigraphy and eruptive processes of the 1990 eruption of Kelut volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 79, no. 3-4 (December 1997): 181–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(97)00031-0.

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Hargie, Kirstin A., Alexa R. Van Eaton, Larry G. Mastin, Robert H. Holzworth, John W. Ewert, and Michael Pavolonis. "Globally detected volcanic lightning and umbrella dynamics during the 2014 eruption of Kelud, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 382 (September 2019): 81–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.10.016.

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De Bélizal, Édouard, Franck Lavigne, J. C. Gaillard, Delphine Grancher, Indyo Pratomo, and Jean-Christophe Komorowski. "The 2007 eruption of Kelut volcano (East Java, Indonesia): Phenomenology, crisis management and social response." Geomorphology 136, no. 1 (January 2012): 165–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.06.015.

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Dare, Richard A., David H. Smith, and Michael J. Naughton. "Ensemble Prediction of the Dispersion of Volcanic Ash from the 13 February 2014 Eruption of Kelut, Indonesia." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55, no. 1 (January 2016): 61–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0079.1.

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AbstractA meteorological ensemble prediction system that represents uncertainties in both initial conditions and model formulations is coupled with a modified version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. This coupled dispersion ensemble prediction system (DEPS) is used to generate a 24-member ensemble forecast of the dispersion of the volcanic ash cloud produced by the 13 February 2014 eruption of Kelut, Indonesia. Uncertainties in the volcanic ash source are not represented. For predictions up to 12 h from the start of the eruption, forecasts from the deterministic control member and from the DEPS both show very good qualitative agreement with satellite observations. By 18–24 h the DEPS forecast shows better qualitative agreement with observations than does the deterministic forecast. Although composited fields such as the ensemble mean and probability present information concisely, experiments here show that it is very important to also consider results from individual member forecasts in order to identify features that may be underrepresented. For example, an area of relatively high ash concentration that was forecast by most of the members was not particularly evident in the composited fields because the location of this feature was highly variable between member forecasts. To fully understand a DEPS forecast, it is necessary to consider both atmospheric column load and concentration fields, individual member forecasts, and a range of thresholds in computing and interpreting probabilities.

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Webster, Helen N., Benjamin J. Devenish, Larry G. Mastin, David J. Thomson, and Alexa R. Van Eaton. "Operational Modelling of Umbrella Cloud Growth in a Lagrangian Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion Model." Atmosphere 11, no. 2 (February 13, 2020): 200. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020200.

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Large explosive eruptions can result in the formation of an umbrella cloud which rapidly expands, spreading ash out radially from the volcano. The lateral spread by the intrusive gravity current dominates the transport of the ash cloud. Hence, to accurately forecast the transport of ash from large eruptions, lateral spread of umbrella clouds needs to be represented within volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. Here, we describe an umbrella cloud parameterisation which has been implemented into an operational Lagrangian model and consider how it may be used during an eruption when information concerning the eruption is limited and model runtime is key. We examine different relations for the volume flow rate into the umbrella, and the rate of spreading within the cloud. The scheme is validated against historic eruptions of differing scales (Pinatubo 1991, Kelud 2014, Calbuco 2015 and Eyjafjallajökull 2010) by comparing model predictions with satellite observations. Reasonable predictions of umbrella cloud spread are achieved using an estimated volume flow rate from the empirical equation by Bursik et al. and the observed eruption height. We show how model predictions can be refined during an ongoing eruption as further information and observations become available.

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Gray, T. M., and R. Bennartz. "Automatic volcanic ash detection from MODIS observations using a back-propagation neural network." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 8, no. 12 (December 8, 2015): 5089–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5089-2015.

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Abstract. Due to the climate effects and aviation threats of volcanic eruptions, it is important to accurately locate ash in the atmosphere. This study aims to explore the accuracy and reliability of training a neural network to identify cases of ash using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Satellite images were obtained for the following eruptions: Kasatochi, Aleutian Islands, 2008; Okmok, Aleutian Islands, 2008; Grímsvötn, northeastern Iceland, 2011; Chaitén, southern Chile, 2008; Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, central Chile, 2011; Sangeang Api, Indonesia, 2014; and Kelut, Indonesia, 2014. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to obtain ash concentrations for the same archived eruptions. Two back-propagation neural networks were then trained using brightness temperature differences as inputs obtained via the following band combinations: 12–11, 11–8.6, 11–7.3, and 11 μm. Using the ash concentrations determined via HYSPLIT, flags were created to differentiate between ash (1) and no ash (0) and SO2-rich ash (1) and no SO2-rich ash (0) and used as output. When neural network output was compared to the test data set, 93 % of pixels containing ash were correctly identified and 7 % were missed. Nearly 100 % of pixels containing SO2-rich ash were correctly identified. The optimal thresholds, determined using Heidke skill scores, for ash retrieval and SO2-rich ash retrieval were 0.48 and 0.47, respectively. The networks show significantly less accuracy in the presence of high water vapor, liquid water, ice, or dust concentrations. Significant errors are also observed at the edge of the MODIS swath.

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Gray, T. M., and R. Bennartz. "Automatic volcanic ash detection from MODIS observations using a back-propagation neural network." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions 8, no. 8 (August 19, 2015): 8753–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amtd-8-8753-2015.

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Abstract. Due to the climate effects and aviation threats of volcanic eruptions, it is important to accurately locate ash in the atmosphere. This study aims to explore the accuracy and reliability of training a neural network to identify cases of ash using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Satellite images were obtained for the following eruptions: Kasatochi, Aleutian Islands, 2008; Okmok, Aleutian Islands, 2008; Grímsvötn, northeastern Iceland, 2011; Chaiteìn, southern Chile, 2008; Puyehue-Cordoìn Caulle, central Chile, 2011; Sangeang Api, Indonesia, 2014; and Kelut, Indonesia, 2014. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was used to obtain ash concentrations for the same archived eruptions. Two back-propagation neural networks were then trained using brightness temperature differences as inputs obtained via the following band combinations: 12-11, 11-8.6, 11-7.3, and 11 μm. Using the ash concentrations determined via HYSPLIT, flags were created to differentiate between ash (1) and no ash (0) and SO2-rich ash (1) and no SO2-rich ash (0) and used as output. When neural network output was compared to the test dataset, 93 % of pixels containing ash were correctly identified and 7 % were missed. Nearly 100 % of pixels containing SO2-rich ash were correctly identified. The optimal thresholds, determined using Heidke skill scores, for ash retrieval and SO2-rich ash retrieval were 0.48 and 0.47, respectively. The networks show significantly less accuracy in the presence of high water vapor, liquid water, ice, or dust concentrations. Significant errors are also observed at the edge of the MODIS swath.

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Voight, B., E. K. Constantine, S. Siswowidjoyo, and R. Torley. "Historical eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768–1998." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 100, no. 1-4 (July 2000): 69–138. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(00)00134-7.

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Goode, Louise R., Heather K. Handley, Shane J. Cronin, and Mirzam Abdurrachman. "Insights into eruption dynamics from the 2014 pyroclastic deposits of Kelut volcano, Java, Indonesia, and implications for future hazards." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 382 (September 2019): 6–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.005.

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Jeffery, A. J., R. Gertisser, V. R. Troll, E. M. Jolis, B. Dahren, C. Harris, A. G. Tindle, et al. "The pre-eruptive magma plumbing system of the 2007–2008 dome-forming eruption of Kelut volcano, East Java, Indonesia." Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology 166, no. 1 (April 17, 2013): 275–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00410-013-0875-4.

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Kohno, Mika, and Yoshiyuki Fujii. "Past 220 year bipolar volcanic signals: remarks on common features of their source volcanic eruptions." Annals of Glaciology 35 (2002): 217–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756402781816807.

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AbstractDuring the past 220 years, prominent signals of non-sea salt sulfate ion (nssSO42–) concentration exceeding the background level, including both marine biogenic and anthropogenic SO42–, were found in shallow ice cores from site H15 in East Antarctica and Site-J in southern Greenland. They were mostly correlated with past explosive volcanic eruptions. on the basis of this result and published results of shallow ice cores and snow pits at various locations on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, eight common signals were found, of which six were assigned to the following explosive eruptions: El Chichόn, Mexico, in 1982; Agung, Indonesia, in 1963; Santa Maria, Guatemala, in 1902; Krakatau, Indonesia, in 1883; Cosiguina, Nicaragua, in 1835; an unknown volcano between 1831 and 1834; Tambora, Indonesia, in 1815; and an unknown volcano in 1809. Volcanic eruptions which have a potential to imprint their signals in both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets were characterized by (1) location in low latitudes between 20˚N and 10˚ S, and (2) eruption column height ≥25 km, corresponding to a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) ≥5.

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Hizbaron, D. R., D. S. Hadmoko, E. T. W. Mei, S. H. Murti, M. R. T. Laksani, A. F. Tiyansyah, E. Siswanti, and I. E. Tampubolon. "Towards measurable resilience: Mapping the vulnerability of at-risk community at Kelud Volcano, Indonesia." Applied Geography 97 (August 2018): 212–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.06.012.

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Kristianto, N. Indrastuti, A. Basuki, H. D. Purnamasari, S. Adi, C. Patria, and N. Haerani. "Potential Eruption and Current Activity of Anak Krakatau Volcano, Indonesia." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 873, no. 1 (October 1, 2021): 012021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/873/1/012021.

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Abstract Anak Krakatau Volcano is located in the Sunda Strait known for its paroxysmal eruption in 1883. During the January - November 2019 period, seismicity was dominated by types of quakes which indicated the occurrence of magma supply (VA and VB), near-surface volcanic activity (LF, Hybrid, Harmonic Tremors), and volcanic activity above the volcanic surface (eruptions, emission, and continuous tremors). In the period December 2019 - July 2020, there was an increase in the types of quakes near the surface (LF, Hybrid) and the types of quakes on the surface (emission and continuous tremors). Volcanic deformation monitors changes in tilt over the 2019-2020 period associated with pressure releases before, during and after the eruption. The results of GPS data modeling, the shallow pressure source is at a depth of 0.22 km below sea level. Volcanic activity until July 2020 was dominated by activity near and above the volcanic surface associated with the growth of lava domes. The volcanic system of Anak Krakatau is currently an open system, with the potential for eruptions. Strengthening the early warning system for the eruption of Anak Krakatau is important in mitigating efforts and understanding its eruption potential

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Mori, Marta, Ronan McDermott, Saut Sagala, and Yasmina Wulandari. "Sinabung volcano: how culture shapes community resilience." Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal 28, no. 3 (June 3, 2019): 290–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-05-2018-0160.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore how culture, including traditions and social structures, can influence resilience and how culturally sensitive relief operations can put affected people and their context at the core of any interventions. Design/methodology/approach A case study of the Mt Sinabung volcano area in Indonesia was undertaken. As part of the case study, an analysis of interventions was conducted, which was complemented by semi-structured interviews with Karo cultural experts and humanitarian organisations. Findings Culture influences the manner in which the Karo people react to volcano eruptions with varying implications for recovery. In addition, relief organisations which understand people’s actions through a cultural lens have better managed to tailor programs with long-term impact, thereby avoiding aid dependency. Practical implications Practical examples of disaster management activities that adequately account for the beneficiaries’ way of living prior to the eruptions are provided. Aid actors are provided with guidance concerning how to better tailor their activities in line with a cultural lens. Originality/value The study provides empirical grounding for claims concerning the role of culture in planning interventions in Indonesia and other similar contexts.

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Kushendratno, John S. Pallister, Kristianto, Farid Ruskanda Bina, Wendy McCausland, Simon Carn, Nia Haerani, Julia Griswold, and Ron Keeler. "Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards at Soputan volcano—a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia." Bulletin of Volcanology 74, no. 7 (June 13, 2012): 1581–609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0620-2.

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Rozaki, Zuhud, Nur Rahmawati, Rahayu Relawati, Oki Wijaya, Lestari Rahayu, Triyono, Sofa Nur Azizah, Ali Rahmat, and Jumakir. "Strategies for overcoming farmers’ lives in volcano-prone areas: A case study in Mount Semeru, Indonesia." Open Agriculture 7, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 486–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/opag-2022-0118.

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Abstract Mount Semeru is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia and the highest mountain in Java Island. Although the island is prone to volcanic eruptions, it is densely populated and also home to several farmers. The aim of this study is to analyze the strategies for overcoming farmers’ lives in Mount Semeru. This study involves 150 farmers who were randomly selected from terrains located at altitudes between 6 and 10 km in Mount Semeru. This study shows that farmers benefit significantly from the fertile lands resulting from volcanic eruptions. And they are highly motivated to engage in mitigation activities to reduce the impacts of eruption; therefore, they tend to participate in mitigation education or programs organized by government or private institutions. Support with the information and financial access regarding any mitigation strategies can help farmers a lot. Coordination among stakeholders to support mitigation strategies is necessary because all the parties are equally responsible for alleviating the impacts of volcanic eruptions. Any strategies for overcoming farmers’ lives in volcano areas also can be supported by community resilience.

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Yamada, Taishi, Hiroshi Aoyama, Takeshi Nishimura, Hiroshi Yakiwara, Haruhisa Nakamichi, Jun Oikawa, Masato Iguchi, Muhamad Hendrasto, and Yasa Suparman. "Initial phases of explosion earthquakes accompanying Vulcanian eruptions at Lokon-Empung volcano, Indonesia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 327 (November 2016): 310–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.08.011.

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Irawanto, Budi. "Narratives of natural disaster survivors in Indonesian media: The case of Tempo magazine." Pacific Journalism Review : Te Koakoa 24, no. 1 (July 17, 2018): 37–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.24135/pjr.v24i1.410.

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Dubbed as the ‘ring of fire,’, Indonesian territories have witnessed many forms of natural disasters such as volcano eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis, which had been widely reported in the mass media. While the media has reported the scale of destruction and number of casualties caused by those disasters, they have also narrated dramatic recounts of the survivors. Imbued with spectacular imagery, the media seek to appeal to the audiences emotionally and evoke sentiments of solidarity as well as humanitarian actions. Employing a textual analysis of media reports in Indonesia, particularly from the weekly news magazine Tempo, this study explores the way in which the media frame the narratives of the survivors of natural disasters (volcano eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis) across Indonesia. Although the media are expected to report events objectively, this study demonstrates the affective element in the practice of journalism on natural disasters. Therefore, this study will contribute to the growing research on the relationship between media and disasters, particularly in the context of a disaster-prone country such as Indonesia. In particular, it will contribute to the body of journalism research which looks at the role of narrating the human subject in tragic events such as natural disasters.

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Cheng, Lilu, and Fidel Costa. "Statistical analysis of crystal populations and links to volcano deformation for more robust estimates of magma replenishment volumes." Geology 47, no. 12 (October 28, 2019): 1171–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/g46826.1.

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Abstract Forecasting the timing and size of volcanic eruptions requires a proper interpretation of multiparametric monitoring signals. Studies of the erupted rocks can provide critical information on the processes and volcano plumbing system that is needed to decode the monitoring signals. Here we present the results of a petrological study of plagioclase phenocrysts using a new statistical approach that allows us to estimate the amount of intruded magma before eruption. Our crystal population analysis of the 2006 and 2010 CE Merapi volcano (Indonesia) eruptions shows that ∼60 ± 20 vol% of the 2010 magma was left over from the 2006 magma, and thus ∼40 ± 20 vol% was newly intruded magma. Using the published values of the 2010 erupted magma volume, this corresponds to >8 to 20 (±7) × 106 m3 of new magma. This is a minimum estimate and is similar to the inferred pre-eruptive deformation volume (18 ×106 m3), although given the uncertainties, several million cubic meters of magma intruded in 2010 could still be in the Merapi plumbing system. Our approach could be used at other volcanoes to quantify the volume of intruded magma and thus help in better understanding the unrest signals that anticipate eruptions.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Kelud Volcano (Indonesia) – Eruptions'

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