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Ma, Le, Richard Reed, and Jian Liang. "Separating owner-occupier and investor demands for housing in the Australian states." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 37, no. 2 (March 4, 2019): 215–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-07-2018-0045.
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PurposeThere has been declining home ownership and increased acceptance of long-term renting in many western countries including Australia; this has created a problem when examining housing markets as there are dual demand and include both owner-occupiers and investors. The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship between house prices, housing supply and demand, and to estimate the effects of the two types of demand (i.e. owner-occupier and investor) on house prices.Design/methodology/approachThe econometric techniques for cointegration with vector error correction models are used to specify the proposed models, where the housing markets in the Australian states and territories illustrate the models.FindingsThe results highlight the regional long-run equilibrium and associated patterns in house prices, the level of new housing supply, owner-occupier demand for housing and investor demand for housing. Different types of markets were identified.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that policies that depress the investment demand can effectively prevent the housing bubble from further building up in the Australian states. The empirical findings shed light in the strategy of maintaining levels of housing affordability in regions where owner-occupiers have been priced out of the housing market.Originality/valueThere has been declining home ownership and increased acceptance of long-term renting in many western countries including Australia; this has created a problem when examining housing markets as there are dual demand and include both owner-occupiers and investors. This research has given to the relationship between supply and dual demand, which includes owner-occupation and investment, for housing and the influence on house prices.
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Yong, Jaime, and Anh Khoi Pham. "The long-term linkages between direct and indirect property in Australia." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 33, no. 4 (July 6, 2015): 374–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-01-2015-0005.
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Purpose– Investment in Australia’s property market, whether directly or indirectly through Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs), grew remarkably since the 1990s. The degree of segregation between the property market and other financial assets, such as shares and bonds, can influence the diversification benefits within multi-asset portfolios. This raises the question of whether direct and indirect property investments are substitutable. Establishing how information transmits between asset classes and impacts the predictability of returns is of interest to investors. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approach– The authors study the linkages between direct and indirect Australian property sectors from 1985 to 2013, with shares and bonds. This paper employs an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process to de-smooth a valuation-based direct property index. The authors establish directional lead-lag relationships between markets using bi-variate Granger causality tests. Johansen cointegration tests are carried out to examine how direct and indirect property markets adjust to an equilibrium long-term relationship and short-term deviations from such a relationship with other asset classes.Findings– The authors find the use of appraisal-based property data creates a smoothing bias which masks the extent of how information is transmitted between the indirect property sector, stock and bond markets, and influences returns. The authors demonstrate that an ARFIMA process accounting for a smoothing bias up to lags of four quarters can overcome the overstatement of the smoothing bias from traditional AR models, after individually appraised constituent properties are aggregated into an overall index. The results show that direct property adjusts to information transmitted from market-traded A-REITs and stocks.Practical implications– The study shows direct property investments and A-REITs are substitutible in a multi-asset portfolio in the long and short term.Originality/value– The authors apply an ARFIMA(p,d,q) model to de-smooth Australian property returns, as proposed by Bond and Hwang (2007). The authors expect the findings will contribute to the discussion on whether direct property and REITs are substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio.
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Reddy, Wejendra, David Higgins, and Ron Wakefield. "An investigation of property-related decision practice of Australian fund managers." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 32, no. 3 (April 1, 2014): 282–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-02-2014-0014.
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Purpose – In Australia, the A$2.2 trillion managed funds industry including the large pension funds (known locally as superannuation funds) are the dominant institutional property investors. While statistical information on the level of Australian managed fund investments in property assets is widely available, comprehensive practical evidence on property asset allocation decision-making process is underdeveloped. The purpose of this research is to identify Australian fund manager's property asset allocation strategies and decision-making frameworks at strategic level. Design/methodology/approach – The research was undertaken in May-August 2011 using an in-depth semi-structured questionnaire administered by mail. The survey was targeted at 130 leading managed funds and asset consultants within Australia. Findings – The evaluation of the 79 survey respondents indicated that Australian fund manager's property allocation decision-making process is an interactive, sequential and continuous process involving multiple decision-makers (internal and external) complete with feedback loops. It involves a combination of quantitative analysis (mainly mean-variance analysis) and qualitative overlay (mainly judgement, or “gut-feeling”, and experience). In addition, the research provided evidence that the property allocation decision-making process varies depending on the size and type of managed fund. Practical implications – This research makes important contributions to both practical and academic fields. Information on strategic property allocation models and variables is not widely available, and there is little guiding theory related to the subject. Therefore, the conceptual frameworks developed from the research will help enhance academic theory and understanding in the area of property allocation decision making. Furthermore, the research provides small fund managers and industry practitioners with a platform from which to improve their own property allocation processes. Originality/value – In contrast to previous property decision-making research in Australia which has mainly focused on strategies at the property fund investment level, this research investigates the institutional property allocation decision-making process from a strategic position involving all major groups in the Australian managed funds industry.
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West, Tracey, and Andrew Worthington. "The impact of major life events on household asset portfolio rebalancing." Studies in Economics and Finance 36, no. 3 (July 26, 2019): 334–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-11-2017-0318.
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Purpose This paper aims to model the asset portfolio rebalancing decisions of Australian households experiencing a severe life event shock. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses household longitudinal data from the Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey since 2001. The major life events are serious illness or injury, death of a spouse, job dismissal or redundancy and separation from a spouse. The asset classes are bank accounts, cash investments, equities, superannuation (private pensions), life insurance, trust funds, owner-occupied housing, investor housing, business assets, vehicles and collectibles. The authors use both static and dynamic Tobit models to assess the impact and duration of impact of the shocks. Findings Serious illness and injury, loss of employment, separation and spousal death cause households to rebalance portfolios in ways that can have detrimental effects on long-term wealth accumulation through poor market timing and the incurring of transaction costs. Research limitations/implications The survey results are only available since 2001, and the wealth module from which the asset data are drawn is self-reported and not available every year. Practical implications Relevant to policymakers working on the ongoing retirement of the “baby boomer” generation and for financial planners guiding household investment decisions. Originality/value Most research on shocks to household wealth concern a narrower range of assets and only limited shocks. Also, this is one of the few studies to use a random effects model to allow for unspecified heterogeneity among households.
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Sherris, M., L. Tedesco, and B. Zehnwirth. "Investment Returns and Inflation Models: Some Australian Evidence." British Actuarial Journal 5, no. 1 (April 1, 1999): 237–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s135732170000043x.
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ABSTRACTThe development of stochastic investment models for actuarial and investment applications has become an important area of interest to actuaries. This paper reports the application of some techniques of modern time series and econometric analysis to Australian inflation, share market and interest rate data. It considers unit roots, cointegration and state space models. Some of the results from this analysis are not reflected in the published stochastic investment models.
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Muravieva, Marina. "State support of the village social infrastructure systems." Przegląd Wschodnioeuropejski 8, no. 2 (November 1, 2018): 107–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.31648/pw.3574.
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The paper presents an analysis of the existing system of state support for rural social infrastructure for the first time. To address this goal the author studied the state information resources and data base of research of the models of state support for the sustainable development of rural areas. The researcher reveals the limitations of research on this subject (the analysis of Web of science, Scopus, Science Direct, Springer Link, Agris, Russian research data base), formulates the descriptive models of various countries in Europe and North America, and groups them into two basic systems. The tests revealed the main factors of the system of public funding of social infrastructure projects. In general financing the algorithms of support for rural social infrastructure were brought to light, the basis of which is made up by two main groups of countries: those with a support system for large rural settlements, selected on the principle of “driving member” and the countries with a system of grant and loan support for rural communities based on projects and local initiatives. The list of systems is not closed, because the study does not affect the countries of Asia, South America, Africa and Australia, which have their own distinctive features. The limitations in a single database of comparable statistical data about the objects of social and engineering infrastructure in rural areas do not allow to assess the effectiveness of investments. The author comes to the conclusion that single common methodology and standards for the evaluation of all forms of efficiency (economic, social, demographic and environmental) the use of state and interstate programs of support of social and infrastructural projects in rural areas, including a preliminary assessment of the needs in social and engineering facilities are necessary.
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Kliber, Paweł, and Artur Stefański. "Econometric Models in Resident Value of Investment." Oeconomia Copernicana 4, no. 3 (September 30, 2013): 49–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/oec.2013.022.
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The aim of the study is to analyze what is the impact of: analyze period, resident value estimation method, discount rate and economic sector of the investor on the level of resident value to initial value of investment ratio. In the article, basing on 43 investments made by investors form MSP sector whose purpose was to purchase truck car of capacity to 3,5t, four econometric models were prepared: logit, probit, tobit, and logit-tobit to explain the dependence described in the aim of the study. All models are statistically important. In all models only one independent variable is always statistically important – analyze period. The longer analyze period is, the smaller resident value to initial value of investment ratio is. In order to compare models: MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE ratios were used. The best adaptation to data was observed when logit-tobit model is used
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Tursunbaevich, Baykhonov Bakhodirjon, and Bustonov Mansurjon Mardonakulovich. "Econometric models of sectoral distribution of investments in the economy of Uzbekistan." South Asian Journal of Marketing & Management Research 9, no. 8 (2019): 89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5958/2249-877x.2019.00039.0.
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Sipos, Tibor, Anteneh Afework Mekonnen, and Zsombor Szabó. "Spatial Econometric Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes." Sustainability 13, no. 5 (February 25, 2021): 2492. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13052492.
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Keeping the basic principles of sustainable development, it must be highlighted that decisions about transport safety projects must be made following expert preparation, using reliable, professional methods. A prerequisite for the cost–benefit analysis of investments is to constantly monitor the efficiency of accident forecasting models and to update these continuously. This paper presents an accident forecasting model for urban areas, which handles both the properties of the public road infrastructure and spatial dependency relations. As the aim was to model the urban environment, we focused on the road public transportation modes (bus and trolley) and the vulnerable road users (bicyclist) using shared infrastructure elements. The road accident data from 2016 to 2018 on the whole road network of Budapest, Hungary, is analyzed, focusing on road links (i.e., road segments between junctions) by applying spatial econometric statistical models. As a result of this article, we have developed a model that can be used by decision-makers as well, which is suitable for estimating the expected value of accidents, and thus for the development of the optimal sequence of appropriate road safety interventions.
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Salem, Mohamed, and Andrew Baum. "Determinants of foreign direct real estate investment in selected MENA countries." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 2 (March 7, 2016): 116–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2015-0042.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the main determinants of foreign direct real estate investments (foreign direct investment (FDI)) in selected Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical work of this study is an econometric analysis of FDI in the commercial real estate sector for eight MENA markets, namely Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Tunisia and the UAE during the period 2003-2009. The econometric analysis is carried out using the pooled Tobit model technique for panel data. Findings – The paper finds that both country-specific factors and real estate sector-specific variables consistently support hypotheses explaining commercial real estate-related FDI, and find evidence that political stability explains why some selected MENA countries attract more real estate investments than other MENA countries. Practical implications – The findings should be seriously considered in any policy making effort on the part of governments in the region. Originality/value – The authors contribute to the existing literature in many ways. First, the study aims to develop econometric models, using both conventional and unique variables, to be generalised and applied to any developed or emerging market. The study applies relevant techniques in estimating the models, including the pooled Tobit model. Second, the research studies eight selected MENA real estate markets from 2003 to 2009, a timeframe and geography not examined in previous published empirical work on commercial real estate investments. Lastly, and for the first time in real estate literature, the study applies the location dimension of Dunning’s OLI paradigm as a theoretical explanation for the behaviour of foreign investors in commercial real estate towards the selected MENA markets.
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Masouman, Ashkan, and Charles Harvie. "Forecasting, impact analysis and uncertainty propagation in regional integrated models: A case study of Australia." Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 47, no. 1 (April 16, 2018): 65–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2399808318767128.
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The integration of input–output and econometric models at regional level has gained popularity for its superior performance in forecasting employment and examining the impacts of policies. There are a number of approaches to integrate the two models. This paper examines the integration of input–output with econometric modelling using two merging methodologies, namely coupling and holistic embedding. Each methodology is analysed with respect to the accuracy of its results of total and sectoral employment forecasting. Both methodologies are applied to a regional economy in Australia. The methodology which shows superior forecasting accuracy is applied to examine the significance of sectors that generate the highest number of employments relative to other sectors.
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Bobrovnik, Denis. "МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ ІНОЗЕМНИХ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙ НА РОЗВИТОК СІЛЬСЬКОГОСПОДАРСЬКИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ." PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF ECONOMIC AND MANAGEMENT, no. 4(20) (2019): 238–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.25140/2411-5215-2019-4(20)-238-245.
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The article deals with the peculiarities of using econometric modeling methodology to analyze the relationship between the development of the agricultural industry and the individual factors that determine its functioning. The importance of at-tracting foreign investment in the agricultural sector of Ukraine is substantiated, and linear one-factor models of the depend-ence between agricultural production and total foreign direct investment, between the level of the profitability of agricultural enterprises and the volume of such investments are constructed. The adequacy of the obtained models is estimated.
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Margaryan, Atom, Haroutyun Terzyan, and Emil Grigoryan. "Telecommunications sector of Armenia and Baltic countries: the impact of foreign direct investment attraction." Economic Annals-ХХI 185, no. 9-10 (November 21, 2020): 99–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.21003/ea.v185-10.
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We examine the institutional and investment developments in the telecommunications sector of Armenia in the last two decades and compare them with those of the Baltic countries, namely, Latvia and Lithuania. In particular, directions of foreign investments made in the sector and the impacts on economic and technological systems of Armenia and the chosen Baltic countries have been thoroughly analyzed. During the analysis, an economic model has been used to assess the impact of foreign direct investments on the income (revenues) of the telecommunications sector of the countries under investigation. Econometric analysis made it possible to consider the above-mentioned links in more depth and in detail. First, a correlation analysis has been carried out which has proved the validity of the hypotheses that there is a strong connection between FDI and the revenue of the telecommunications sector in Armenia and Latvia in the considered time period of 2009-2019. The causal roots of the relationships between the two variables have been studied. After processing the statistical data and refining the model specifications, an econometric model for Armenia has been proposed with the help of which the key relationships have been clarified. The evaluated model, which satisfies the basic quality of econometric models, helped to draw important conclusions on the depth and nature of the impact of foreign direct investment volume on the income of the telecommunications sector in Armenia. The model clearly shows the unstable influence of foreign direct investments on income, which confirms the riskiness of the Armenian economy as a whole, since the country has been in an economic blockade and in a state of war with a neighbouring state for more than 20 years.
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Stamatiou, Pavlos, and Nikolaos Dritsakis. "The Effects of FDI on Greek Economy: An Empirical Analysis." International Journal of Accounting and Finance Studies 2, no. 2 (July 23, 2019): p39. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/ijafs.v2n2p39.
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This paper investigates the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth in Greece, within a framework that also accounts unemployment rate, using annual data covering the period 1970 to 2017. Several econometric models are applied including the ARDL bound test approach for cointegration as well as ECM-ARDL model for causality. The results of the study confirm the existence of a long run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality results indicated a strong unidirectional causality between economic development and foreign direct investments with direction from economic development to foreign direct investments. Finally, the variance decomposition method and the impulse response functions are used to test the strength of causality between the variables. The results of the study offer new perspectives and insight for new policies for sustainable economic development, increasing investments and reducing unemployment.
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Al-karasneh, Huthaifa, Ashraf Bataineh, Osama Hayajneh, and Omar Khodirat. "Does foreign portfolio investment improve the economic growth of Jordan?" Accounting 7, no. 7 (2021): 1669–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2021.5.003.
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This paper aims to examine the impact of short and long-term active Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) on Jordan Economic Growth (EG) thru (1996-2017) by employing some econometric methods like ARDL and Error Correction Models to reach the study results. Findings reveal that FPI have a long-term statistical positive impact on EG at level (5%) and also have a short-term negative impact on EG at level (5%), where EG needs about ten years to reach a full adjustment.
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Tadeu, Hugo Ferreira Braga, and Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva. "Determinants of Productivity in Brazil: an empyrical analysis of the period 1996-2020." International Journal of Economics and Statistics 9 (April 16, 2021): 30–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.46300/9103.2021.9.6.
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Empirical studies regarding the determinants of productivity in developing countries, including Brazil, have demonstrated the negative impact of high inflation rates on the industrial capacity. However, the recent Brazilian experience clearly shows that stabilization since 1996, in and of itself, is not capable of recovering the investment rates. With this in mind, this study's goal is to answer, with the help of econometric simulation models, the questions: (i) what are the key-drivers to assess the Brazilian economy since 1996?; and (ii) what are the key-factors to be considered when investments are made, particulary in productivity? To answer the questions we evaluated the impacts of macro-economic variables on private investments, using a strategic bias and a long term vision plan. The estimates demonstrate empirical crowding-in evidence of public investments in infrastructure over private investments as a real impact to productivity. As for public invetsments (noninfrastructural) we suggest that the crowding-in impact dislocates private investments. All these indicators were obtained as presented in the therory, with the exception of the real interest rates variable (r), in which we observed that the coefficient is positive and insignificant in the estimated equation.
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V. B., Shahin, Jamila G. M., Fargana G. M., and Nazim Hajiyev. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Economic Activity: The Case of Azerbaijan." Journal of Politics and Law 14, no. 2 (December 23, 2020): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jpl.v14n2p39.
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The strategic purpose of the economic policy of Azerbaijan is to ensure sustainable growth. The external factors including oil prices in the world market and investments have a significant influence on economic activity in Azerbaijan. The relationship between oil prices and gross domestic product has been scrutinized and the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators to oil prices has been investigated. The dependence of investment activity, including foreign investments on oil prices has been determined. In the research, econometric models have been constructed in the purpose of studying the impact of oil prices on key macroeconomic indicators from the qualitative and quantitative point of view. At the same time, a comparative analysis of oil reserves of Azerbaijan with other oil countries has been conducted. According to the results, the government should determine new and sustainable growth pillars based on risks emerged from oil price, improve economic policy and accelerate the transition to innovative high-tech models of economic development.
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Shah, Rohan, and Phani R. Jammalamadaka. "Optimal Portfolio Strategy for Risk Management in Toll Road Forecasts and Investments." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2670, no. 1 (January 2017): 83–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2670-11.
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The study leveraged modern portfolio theory and stochastic time series models to develop a risk management strategy for future traffic projections along brownfield toll facilities. Uncertainty in future traffic forecasts may raise concerns about performance reliability and revenue potential. Historical time series traffic data from brownfield corridors were used for developing econometric forecast estimates, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify a priori risks or variance to develop optimal forecasts by using mean-variance optimization strategies. Numerical analysis is presented with historical toll transactions along the Massachusetts Turnpike system. Suggested diversification strategies were found to achieve better long-term forecast efficiencies with improved trade-offs between anticipated risks and returns. Planner and agency forecast performance expectations and risk propensity are thus jointly captured.
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Reddy, Wejendra. "Evaluation of Australian industry superannuation fund performance; asset allocation to property." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 4 (July 4, 2016): 301–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-12-2015-0084.
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Purpose – Property is a key investment asset class that offers considerable benefits in a mixed-asset portfolio. Previous studies have concluded that property allocation should be within the 10-30 per cent range. However, there seems to be wide variation in theory and practice. Historical Australian superannuation data shows that the level of allocation to property asset class in institutional portfolios has remained constant in recent decades, restricted at 10 per cent or lower. This is seen by many in the property profession as a subjective measure and needs further investigation. The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of the AU$431 billion industry superannuation funds’ strategic balanced portfolio against ten different passive and active investment strategies. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis used 20 years (1995-2015) of quarterly data covering seven benchmark asset classes, namely: Australian equities, international equities, Australian fixed income, international fixed income, property, cash and alternatives. The 11 different asset allocation models are constructed within the modern portfolio theory framework utilising Australian ten-year bonds as the risk free rate. The Sharpe ratio is used as the key risk-adjusted return performance measure. Findings – The ten different asset allocation models perform as well as the industry fund strategic approach. The empirical results show that there is scope to increase the property allocation level from its current 10-23 per cent. Upon excluding unconstrained strategies, the recommended allocation to property for industry funds is 19 per cent (12 per cent direct and 7 per cent listed). This high allocation is backed by improved risk-adjusted return performance. Research limitations/implications – The constrained optimal, tactical and dynamic models are limited to asset weight, no short selling and turnover parameters. Other institutional constraints that can be added to the portfolio optimisation problem include transaction costs, taxation, liquidity and tracking error constraints. Practical implications – The 11 different asset allocation models developed to evaluate the property allocation component in industry superannuation funds portfolio will attract fund managers to explore alternative strategies (passive and active) where risk-adjusted returns can be improved, compared to the common strategic approach with increased allocation to property assets. Originality/value – The research presents a unique perspective of investigating the optimal allocation to property assets within the context of active investment strategies, such as tactical and dynamic models, whereas previous studies have focused mainly on passive investment strategies. The investigation of these models effectively contributes to the transfer of broader finance and investment market theories and practice to the property discipline.
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PLUNKETT, BRADLEY, FABIO R. CHADDAD, and MICHAEL L. COOK. "Ownership structure and incentives to invest: dual-structured irrigation cooperatives in Australia." Journal of Institutional Economics 6, no. 2 (May 6, 2010): 261–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1744137409990361.
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Abstract:In the past decade, Australia has begun to privatize its irrigation system. Two general models have emerged: a single and a dual ownership structure. This paper examines the trade-offs, costs and benefits, and the attendant efficiencies regarding costs of ownership. In particular, we examine member capital investment incentives and resultant risk-bearing costs related to capital formation. The paper concludes that the dual ownership structure system has significant economic advantages relative to its single-structured counterpart.
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Sinoi, Elena-Alexandra. "The impact of educated migrants and R&D expenditures on innovation." Management & Marketing. Challenges for the Knowledge Society 16, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 13–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/mmcks-2021-0002.
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Abstract Migration has become a topic of great interest of the 21st century, as it triggers multiple advantages and downsides, both for the people and communities implicated, depending on the policies in place. International migration should not be perceived as an issue that needs to be solved, but rather a global phenomenon that can reduce poverty and foster inclusive growth and sustainable development, both in origin and destination countries. The most highly-skilled immigrants represent a key factor in enhancing innovation and technological change processes, which are essential aspects of social and economic development. The purpose of the study is to analyse the impact of highly educated immigrants (with tertiary-educated immigrant employees and foreign PhD students) together with R&D investments on innovative activity (proxied by the number of patents applications), in the case of the ten countries which joined the EU in 2004. The evaluated time frame is from 2011 to 2017. For the econometric analysis of the panel data, we developed fixed-effects linear regression models, at the country-level. The indicators computed are relevant to the innovative activity. The econometric estimations highlight a positive correlation between educated migrants and the number of patent applications in all ten countries. This nexus is even strengthened when we take into consideration other relevant impact factors, such as investments in R&D and human capital. Therefore, the more efforts and investments are devoted to R&D and highly educated individuals, the more predictable the innovation is.
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Tirmizi, Syed Muhammad Ali, Haider Ali, and Sharif Ullah Jan. "Petroleum and Food Sectors Lost Stock Returns against Investments in PSX." Global Management Sciences Review VI, no. I (March 30, 2021): 99–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gmsr.2021(vi-i).10.
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The impact of exchange rate exposure and market return on stock returns of petroleum and food sectors PSX listed firms has been investigated empirically. Two econometric models formulated based on the Jorion approach of the two-factor model have been analyzed for petroleum and food sectors stock returns, market return and exchange rate (i.e., USD) for the study period 2005-2012, which represent an era of military regime proceeded by the democratic government of Pakistan Peoples Party. A sample of 37 petroleum and food sectors listed firms have been evaluated by applying the unit root test and OLS multiple regression. Further, the Quandt-Andrews test of unknown breakpoint has been applied, which showed an extended structural break during the period 2007 to 2010. Additionally, the results revealed that the coefficients of exchange rate and market return are negatively related to petroleum and food sectors stock returns. Therefore, investors must take precautions before investing funds in stocks of food and petroleum sector firms.
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Ndayisaba, Gilbert, and Abdullahi D. Ahmed. "CEO remuneration, board composition and firm performance: empirical evidence from Australian listed companies." Corporate Ownership and Control 13, no. 1 (2015): 534–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv13i1c5p2.
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Classical economic theories establishing a relationship between CEO remuneration and firm performance has paid particular attention to solve conflict of interest between managerial team and firm shareholders, by designing an optimum CEO remuneration that motivate executives to work in the best interest of shareholders. Many international and less Australian empirical researches suggest that there is overwhelming evidence that firm performance is strongly linked with CEO remuneration. In this paper, we reassess the association of firm performance and CEO remuneration variables using dynamic econometric models and comprehensive data from Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). We find a positive and strong association between CEO pay of top 200 Australian public listed companies and company performance. Obtained findings are similar to USA, UK and Canada studies results. We further test the effect of board and ownership features on CEO remuneration–performance sensitivity in the top 200 Australian public companies listed on ASX. Specifically, for the period of 2003-2007, our results highlight the importance of ownership structure in influencing remuneration–performance relationship. Monitoring block holders boost the responsiveness of long term incentives (LTI) remuneration to performance, thus straightening shareholder and manager welfares. However, based on a short term investment horizon strategy, insider block holders increase (decrease) the sensitivity of short-term incentives remuneration (long term incentives pay). Surprisingly, for the period 2008-2013, our findings suggest that ownership and board features did not influence significantly CEO pay-performance sensitivities. Finally, we find that larger boards increase (decrease) the responsiveness of CEO’s known remuneration (long term incentives) to performance.
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Gajdzik, Bożena, and Włodzimierz Sroka. "Resource Intensity vs. Investment in Production Installations—The Case of the Steel Industry in Poland." Energies 14, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 443. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14020443.
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Resource intensity is a measure of the resources needed for the production, processing and disposal of good or services. Its level decides on the costs the companies have to bear both for production and for environmental protection, which in turn have a crucial importance for their competitiveness. Given these facts, our study analyses the issues of resource intensity in the Polish steel industry in correlation to investments made, and more specifically, to the impact of investments on the consumption of energy media used during steel production. Its key element is the development of econometric models presenting the impact of investments on resource consumption in steel production in Poland. Electricity and coke consumption were analysed according to manufacturing installation. The research was carried out on the basis of statistical data for the period of 2004–2018. The obtained findings confirmed the impact of the increase in investment on the decrease in the resource intensity in steel production in Poland. These facts have implications for both policy makers, as they confirm the thesis on a direct correlation between investments in technology and a reduction in resource intensity (environmental protection), as well as company managers. In the case of the latter, the data show the actions which companies should focus on in their activities.
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Calugareanu, Irina. "DETERMINATION OF THE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT INDEX OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CREATION OF INNOVATIVE HUBS." EURASIAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES 8, no. 3 (2020): 111–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.15604/ejss.2020.08.03.003.
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Enterprises in their classical form are complex and inflexible structures, unable to respond quickly to the environmental changes. At the same time, the existing national and international regulations and procedures limit their agility and velocity of work but are necessary for the existence of business settlements. We all know that such structures do not stimulate the creation and promotion of innovations that we all need, and that can lead not only to competitive advantage but also to the development of country indices. In this respect, the article aims to determine the influence of the Republic of Moldova economic development index by the joint ventures and stateowned enterprises’ investments. In the research, we use the documentation methods of statistical data and two linear regression unifactorial econometric models and the statistical procedure Least Squares Method. Investigation and description of this topic allow the author to generalize the main findings of the major influence of the enterprise’s investments on the economic and social development of the Republic of Moldova.
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& Al-Hiyali, Alsudani. "AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF SOME ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2017." IRAQI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES 52, no. 3 (June 22, 2021): 682–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.36103/ijas.v52i3.1359.
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The research aimed at analyzing the structure of agricultural employment in Iraq as well as analyzing the current status of economic variables related to agricultural employment during the period 1990-2017, including the agricultural workforce, agricultural wages, agricultural investment and agricultural GDP. In the achievement of its objectives, the research relied on descriptive and quantitative analysis, as well as the use of some modern econometric methods in estimating models. The results using the ARDL methodology in the analysis indicate a long-term relationship between the volume of agricultural employment and each of the explanatory variables included in the model, which are (agricultural GDP, agricultural investments, agricultural wages and technological development). The research concluded that the negative effects of the policies pursued towards the agricultural sector to a large extent have been reflected on the size of the demand for agricultural employment and the productive efficiency of agricultural labor. The research recommended that investments should be directed to developing human resources, aiming to raise their efficiency, and encouraging the private sector to increase investments in various fields that would open new labor markets in order to accommodate the various types of unemployment that exist in the state’s economic structure.
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I. Tabash, Mosab, and Suhaib Anagreh. "Do Islamic banks contribute to growth of the economy? Evidence from United Arab Emirates (UAE)." Banks and Bank Systems 12, no. 1 (April 25, 2017): 113–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.12(1-1).2017.03.
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Islamic finance has grown rapidly in the recent years particularly in the Middle East and the world. It receives a great attention of bankers and financial scholars due to its stability during financial shocks and crises. The paper uses empirical analysis to test the role of Islamic banking in enhancing the economic growth of United Arab Emirates (UAE). Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross formation (GF), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are used as representatives for economic growth, while Islamic banks’ investments are used as a representative for Islamic financial sector in the UAE. The study uses time series techniques to test the link between the variables. In the current study, co-integration along with error correction models is utilized. All econometric work is done using Eviews. The findings reveal that the causal relationship between Islamic banks’ investments and economic growth of UAE is supply-leading direction. Furthermore, the findings depict that Islamic investments have contributed in increasing investments and in bringing FDI into the country in the long-term. The study also shows that there is two-way association between Islamic banks’ investments and FDI. It shows that FDI supports Islamic banking and Islamic banking brings FDI. The paper concludes that authorities of the UAE should devote more attention for this growing banking sector by facilitating regulations for establishing new Islamic banks and then creating a suitable environment for their growth and progress in the UAE.
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Barykin, Sergey A., and Andrei L. Bulgakov. "Factors of the fintech market development in the global economy (the case of the alternative lending)." Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Management 20, no. 1 (2021): 108–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu08.2021.105.
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Alternative lending is one of the largest segments of the financial technology market in the world which is represented by online platforms specializing in organizing the lending process. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of key factors on the dynamics of venture capital investments in alternative lending platforms. The objectives of this study are to define the concept of alternative lending, build an econometric model to analyze the factors of development of alternative lending in the world, and interpret the results from the point of view of the prospects for the development of alternative lending. Alternative lending has been defined as a segment of the fintech market that can be characterized as parallel financing of economic activities based on digital platforms through the provision of syndicated loans after decentralized business models. To test the hypotheses of the study, an econometric model was built on the analysis of 5,234 investment transactions completed in the period from 2013 to 2019 in 35 countries of the world and included in the CrunchBase database. According to the model, such factors as the availability of venture capital, the number of workforce, the digital competitiveness of the economy (the factor of future readiness), and the availability of credit information have a significant impact on the dynamics of direct and venture capital investments in alternative lending companies. The obtained results can be considered when improving the national strategy for regulating the alternative lending market, which is especially important for Russia, where the segment of alternative lending is at the stage of stagnation.
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Басовский, Leonid Basovskiy, Басовская, and Elena Basovskaya. "The inefficiency of property paradox in the modern Russian economy." Economics 1, no. 4 (October 21, 2013): 3–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1470.
Full textAbstract:
One of the factors that determine the productivity of labor in modern Russia
is employment in the private sector. Employment in the private sector
significantly reduces the productivity and efficiency of the economy. This is
confirmed by econometric models developed on the basis of the regional
statistics for 2001–2011. The negative impact of employment in the private
sector proves that the institution of private property is inadequate in this
country.
The greater the negative effect of the ownership factor, the lower the capital/
labor rate in the region. As a result an institutional trap has emerged. On the one
hand, to reduce the negative impact of institution of property imperfectness it
is necessary to raise the capital/labor ratio. On the other hand, investments,
needed to raise the capital/labor ratio, are inefficient due to that same negative
effect of institution of property imperfectness on the productivity of labor.
As the econometric analysis reveals, an essential factor which has heavily
(up to 70%) contributed to current imperfectness and inefficiency of the private
property institution is the federal policy embodied in a set of Federal laws
enacted in 2005–2011.
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de Almeida Pais, José Edmundo, Hugo D. N. Raposo, José Torres Farinha, Antonio J. Marques Cardoso, and Pedro Alexandre Marques. "Optimizing the Life Cycle of Physical Assets through an Integrated Life Cycle Assessment Method." Energies 14, no. 19 (September 26, 2021): 6128. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14196128.
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The purpose of this study was to apply new methods of econometric models to the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of physical assets, by integrating investments such as maintenance, technology, sustainability, and technological upgrades, and to propose a means to evaluate the Life Cycle Investment (LCI), with emphasis on sustainability. Sustainability is a recurrent theme of existing studies and will be a concern in coming decades. As a result, equipment with a smaller environmental footprint is being continually developed. This paper presents a method to evaluate asset depreciation with an emphasis on the maintenance investment, technology depreciation, sustainability depreciation, and technological upgrade investment. To demonstrate the value added of the proposed model, it was compared with existing models that do not take the previously mentioned aspects into consideration. The econometric model is consistent with asset life cycle plans as part of the Strategic Asset Management Plan of the Asset Management System. It is clearly demonstrated that the proposed approach is new and the results are conclusive, as demonstrated by the presented models and their results. This research aims to introduce new methods that integrate the factors of technology upgrades and sustainability for the evaluation of assets’ LCA and replacement time. Despite the increase in investment in technology upgrades and sustainability, the results of the Integrated Life Cycle Assessment First Method (ILCAM1), which represents an improved approach for the analyzed data, show that the asset life is extended, thus increasing sustainability and promoting the circular economy. By comparison, the Integrated Life Cycle Investment Assessment Method (ILCIAM) shows improved results due to the investment in technology upgrades and sustainability. Therefore, this study presents an integrated approach that may offer a valid tool for decision makers.
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Behera, Harendra Kumar, and Inder Sekhar Yadav. "Explaining India’s current account deficit: a time series perspective." Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies 26, no. 1 (June 7, 2019): 117–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jabes-11-2018-0089.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India. Design/methodology/approach To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM. Findings The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor. Practical implications Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD. Originality/value The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.
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Brennan, L. E., S. N. Lisson, P. L. Poulton, P. S. Carberry, K. L. Bristow, and S. Khan. "A farm-scale, bio-economic model for assessing investments in recycled water for irrigation." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 59, no. 11 (2008): 1035. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ar06316.
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Demand for water in Australia is increasing along with growing pressure to maximise the efficiency of irrigation water use and seek additional and alternative irrigation supplies. The scarcity of water supplies coupled with the need for urban communities to dispose of large quantities of treated recycled water from sewage treatment plants has led to increasing interest from urban and rural communities in the reticulation of this water for irrigating adjacent crop-production areas. Proposals to use recycled water inevitably lead to a complex range of issues that need to be addressed, including: costs and benefits of supplying an additional source of water to current or new cropping systems; optimum irrigation design and management, particularly where there are multiple sources of irrigation water; management of overflow from on-farm water storages; and environmental implications with regard to salinity, runoff, drainage, nitrate leaching, and environmental flows. Simulation models can capture many of the key factors and processes influencing irrigated crop production systems, and can play a useful role in exploring these issues. In this paper, we have described an approach that couples agricultural production system and economic models in a way that enables analysis of the likely benefits and risks of investing in recycled water, although the analysis is equally relevant to any assessment of the value of an additional source of irrigation water, particularly saline water. The approach has been illustrated with a case study of a mixed-crop farm in the Darling Downs region of Queensland, Australia, in which the farm-scale crop production, economic, and environmental implications of investing in recycled water were considered.
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Jebeniani, Jihene, and Mokhtar Kouki. "Measure inegality in the investors risk aversion and behavioral heterogeneity: method and experimentation." JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH 3, no. 2 (March 28, 2014): 240–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.24297/jssr.v3i2.3107.
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This article studies the inequalities in measurements of the risk aversion in the context of the financial investments in Tunisia. We clarify initially the factors constitutive of the risk aversion. The studied actors are individual decision makers. The tackled questions are the risk attitude (including the risks known as extremes), its perception, its evaluation, the decision-making in risky universe. The empirical data were collected through experimental sessions carried out in Tunisia. We propose a framework of analysis for the study of the investors preferences based on an operational econometric modeling. The estimated models are the ordered probit and the ordered probit with random effects. The model with random effects has the advantage of making it possible to test the heterogeneity of the individuals and to measure the inequality in risk aversion of the investors, and this, by studying the components between and within-individual of the variance of the risk aversion.
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Uz, Dilek, and Steven Buck. "Comparing Water Use Forecasting Model Selection Criteria: The Case of Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial Sector in Southern California." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (May 13, 2020): 3995. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12103995.
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The United States is one of the largest per capita water withdrawers in the world, and certain parts of it, especially the western region, have long experienced water scarcity. Historically, the U.S. relied on large water infrastructure investments and planning to solve its water scarcity problems. These large-scale investments as well as water planning activities rely on water forecast studies conducted by water managing agencies. These forecasts, while key to the sustainable management of water, are usually done using historical growth extrapolation, conventional econometric approaches, or legacy software packages and often do not utilize methods common in the field of statistical learning. The objective of this study is to illustrate the extent to which forecast outcomes for commercial, institutional and industrial water use may be improved with a relatively simple adjustment to forecast model selection. To do so, we estimate over 352 thousand regression models with retailer level panel data from the largest utility in the U.S., featuring a rich set of variables to model commercial, institutional, and industrial water use in Southern California. Out-of-sample forecasting performances of those models that rank within the top 5% based on various in- and out-of-sample goodness-of-fit criteria were compared. We demonstrate that models with the best in-sample fit yeild, on average, larger forecast errors for out-of-sample forecast exercises and are subject to a significant degree of variation in forecasts. We find that out-of-sample forecast error and the variability in the forecast values can be reduced by an order of magnitude with a relatively straightforward change in the model selection criteria even when the forecast modelers do not have access to “big data” or utilize state-of-the-art machine learning techniques.
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Dinca, Gheorghita, Marius Sorin Dinca, and Catalina Popione. "Analyzing Fiscal Balance Evolution for Developed and Emerging Countries." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 63, no. 3 (2016): 299–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2016-0123.
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The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
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Sukharev, O. S. "Structural Policy: Towards a New Investment Model of Economic Growth." Finance: Theory and Practice 23, no. 2 (May 4, 2019): 84–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-2-84-104.
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The article examines structural policy as a tool for developing a new economic growth model in Russia. The author considers the conditions of economic growth based on increased investment. The purpose of the article is to determine the current characteristics of the Russian economy structural dynamics by the components of GDP and basic sectors. The basic sectors of the current investment structure have been assessed — processing sector and transactional and raw materials sector — and the directions for further development have been specified. The research methodology consists of: structural analysis of GDP and sectoral dynamics; the received and applied “structural formula” of assessing the contribution of the system elements to economic growth; formulated simple optimization models and a numerical optimization method (gradient projection method). The method of empirical and statistical estimates has also been used. Optimization models have made it possible to demonstrate the solution to the problem of distributing investments between the sectors with a target function for maximum profit and minimum risk. The analysis of growth and the conditions for economic growth obtained by the model-analytical method — in terms of the rate of change in oil prices and the exchange rate — allowed us to empirically show periods of growth and recession in the economy. They depend on the growth rate of oil prices and the devaluation of the rouble. This approach, with further use of econometric models linking macroparameters, will make it possible to evaluate the effect of changes in structural parameters on economic growth. The overall result of the study is as follows: the intensification of investments is insufficient to organize the investment model of economic growth in Russia. The stimulation of gross consumption and a change in the structure of investments are required. It is necessary to reduce the gap between the sectors by risk mitigation. External factors affecting the economic growth in Russia (oil prices, currency inflows) must be eliminated by changing the structure, including the sensitivity increase of its elements to macroeconomic policy instruments, and differentiating sectoral policy measures considering the positive impact on the contribution of GDP components and sectors of money growth and inflation.
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Ackah, Ishmael. "Does bad company corrupt good character? A spatial econometric analysis of oil resource management in Africa." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 11, no. 3 (September 4, 2017): 480–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-10-2016-0002.
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Purpose A widely held belief before the 1990s – referred to as the oil-blessing hypothesis – was that oil discovery and production should promote economic growth and development and lead to poverty reduction. However, the so-called ‘oil-curse’ hypothesis, postulated by Sachs and Warner in 1995, challenged this belief, thus provoking a heated debate on the theme. The oil-curse hypothesis has been traditionally tested by means of cross-sectional and panel-data models. The author goes beyond these traditional methods to test whether the presence of spatial effects can alter the hypothesis in oil-producing African countries. In particular, this paper aims to investigate the effects on economic growth of oil production, oil resources and oil revenues along with the quality of democratic institutions, investment and openness to trade. Design/methodology/approach A Durbin spatial model, a cross-sectional model and panel-data model are used. Findings First, the validity of the spatial Durbin model is vindicated. Second, consistently with the oil-curse hypothesis, oil production, resources, rent and revenues have a negative and generally significant effect on economic growth. This result is robust for across the panel data, spatial Durbin and spatial autoregressive models and for different measures of spatial proximity between countries. Third, the author finds that the extent to which the business environment is perceived as benign for investment has a positive and marginally effect on economic growth. Additionally, economic growth of a country is further stimulated by a spatial proximity of a neighbouring country if the neighbouring country has created strong institutions protecting investments. Fourth, openness to international trade has a positive and marginally significant effect on economic growth. Originality/value This paper examines theories and studies that have been done before. However, as the related literature on the growth–resource abundance nexus has rarely examined spatial effects, this study seeks to test jointly the spatial effect and the neighbouring effect on the oil curse hypothesis.
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Gajdzik, Bożena, Włodzimierz Sroka, and Jolita Vveinhardt. "Energy Intensity of Steel Manufactured Utilising EAF Technology as a Function of Investments Made: The Case of the Steel Industry in Poland." Energies 14, no. 16 (August 20, 2021): 5152. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14165152.
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The production of steel in the world is dominated by two types of technologies: BF + BOF (the blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace, also known as integrated steel plants) and EAF (the electric arc furnace). The BF + BOF process uses a lot of natural resources (iron ore is a feedstock for steel production) and fossil fuels. As a result, these steel mills have a significantly negative impact on the environment. In turn, EAF technology is characterised by very low direct emissions and very high indirect emissions. The raw material for steel production is steel scrap, the processing of which is highly energy-consuming. This paper analyses the energy intensity of steel production in Poland as a function of investments made in the steel industry in the years 2000–2019. Statistical data on steel production in the EAF process in Poland (which represents an approximately 50% share of the steel produced, as the rest is produced utilising the BF + BOF process) was used. Slight fluctuations are caused by the periodic switching of technology for economic or technical reasons. The hypothesis stating that there is a relationship between the volume of steel production utilising the EAF process and the energy consumption of the process, which is influenced by investments, was formulated. Econometric modelling was used as the research method and three models were constructed: (1) a two-factor power model; (2) a linear two-factor model; and (3) a linear one-factor model. Our findings show that the correlation is negative, that is, along with the increase in technological investments in electric steel plants in Poland, a decrease in the energy consumption of steel produced in electric furnaces was noted during the analysed period.
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Deda, Eriona. "Econometric Evaluation of Micro Factors of Seasonality on Revenues, Price, Sales and Farmers Work-Occupation: Case of Apple And Tomato on the Regions of Prizren, Lushnja, and Korça." Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences 8, no. 3 (May 24, 2017): 351–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2017.v8n3p351.
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Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the importance of effects and impact of seasonal fluctuations on income of farmers, workoccupation in farm and sales on apples activity for areas of Korça and Prizren , and in tomatos activities for areas Lushnja and Prizren. Lushnja area is one of the most popular areas of Albania on the quality of vegetable production. Seasonal effects that influence on the apples production in areas of Korça and Prizren and tomatos in areas of Lushnja and Prizren. Some seasonal effects comes as a result of weather conditions, pests and diseases, and are more expressed in those economic phenomenon such us: the volatility of price over year, to farmers income and to farmers work-occupation over a year. We also can say that the production of apples and tomatos in our country includes more intensive activities of production that require large investments. Their production cost turns out to be higher for manufacturers, but, while also enabling high levels of profit. Our estimates are based on data obtained from surveys, for 300 farmers, to make our evaluations we build some econometric models. In this paper we have used the model of seasonal indexes, where seasonal variation can be measured in terms of an index called the seasonal index. We have used these methods: seasonal indexes standard deviations, and econometric modeling. Also we have defined indicators and values of the variations coefficient. The variations coefficient is a relative indicator which expresses the ratio between to standard deviation size and arithmetic average of mass phenomenon.
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Басовский, Leonid Basovskiy, Басовская, and Elena Basovskaya. "Is It Possible to Get out of the Economic Crisis in the Coming Years?" Economics 3, no. 5 (October 19, 2015): 4–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/13586.
Full textAbstract:
The paper is aimed to forecast how the crisis in the Russian economy is likely
to evolve. The construction of econometric models of Russia’s economic
dynamics for the period of 2000 to 2015 allows to predict, that in 2015-2019 the
deep economic crisis is to be expected. During the crisis period the overall
decline in production can reach 20%. The greatest decline in production is likely
to occur in 2016-2017. In 2019-2020 stabilization or transition to growth of
production can follow. Present crisis developments are by about 80% due to
unfavorable institutional environment, being the result of the laws adopted.
Thus the transition to economic growth even in 2019-2020 is quite questionable.
As the authors argue, to overcome the crisis developments in the economy, it is
needed to pursue more effective policy of building institutions, which would
boost economic growth and economic development, as well as policies, aimed
at encouraging entrepreneurship development, bringing in investments and
expanding domestic demand.
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Басовская and Elena Basovskaya. "Effects of Human Capital on Profits of Russia’s Enterprises and Organizations." Economics 3, no. 5 (October 19, 2015): 17–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/13589.
Full textAbstract:
Through econometric models construction the author evaluates the effects of
capital-labor ratio and human capital, where the latter is characterized by the
employees’ educational level, on profits of enterprises and organizations,
operating in Russia. In 2009 the capital-labor ratio and the human capital, as
estimated by the employees’ educational level, could be considered responsible
for no less, than 39% of profitability of enterprises and organizations. For the
most part this effect is due to the capital-labor ratio, while the lesser, though
essential part of the said effect is due to the employees human capital. It is
shown, that the elasticity of profit in terms of employees human capital exceeds
manifold the profit elasticity in terms of capital-labor ratio, meaning that the
effect of changes in human capital level on the labor productivity exceeds
manifold that of changes in capital-labor ratio. Therefore, to enhance the human
capital through better education of employees is more beneficial, than to
increase investments in basic capital assets.
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Antunes, Aghane, Cynthia S. Simmons, and Joao Paulo Veiga. "Non-Timber Forest Products and the Cosmetic Industry: An Econometric Assessment of Contributions to Income in the Brazilian Amazon." Land 10, no. 6 (June 2, 2021): 588. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land10060588.
Full textAbstract:
This study explores Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) production and company–community partnerships with the multinational cosmetic industry. The objectives are to critically assess: (1) how income generated from market-oriented NTFPs extraction impacts small farmers’ livelihoods; and (2) whether membership in cooperatives linked to such partnerships is a factor in improved livelihood. Household-level data from 282 surveys conducted in remote communities in four municipalities in the Northeast region of the State of Pará provide empirical insight into NTFPs extraction and processing activities by smallholder farmers in the Brazilian Amazon. We employ a spatial econometric approach to assess if engagement in NTFPs extraction and membership in cooperatives result in statistically significant increases in the overall household income. A series of spatial regression models are used, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Autoregressive Regression (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and their corresponding alternative Bayesian models. Our study finds that NTFP extraction and membership in cooperatives tied to company–community partnerships are statistically significant and result in increases in total income at the household level. Findings also show that distance to transportation modes and markets are statistically significant with more distant households earning greater income. This finding presents challenges for the long-term sustainability of green alternatives to development that rely on remote, inaccessible environments for the commodities of interest. This is especially pronounced given the commitment of the Amazonian Nations, and the massive national and international investments, in the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA), which has as its goal the creation of a multimodal transportation hub to integrate the continent with global markets and make accessible far reaches of the Amazon.
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Angelina, Ilchenko, Xiang Xiao Gang, and Stepanov Vladimir. "Econometric Modelling of Influence of Level of the Social and Economic Infrastructure On Quality of Life of the Population." Economics and Culture 14, no. 1 (June 27, 2017): 119–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jec-2017-0011.
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Abstract In this article, the index approach to an estimation of situational multifactor economic categories is considered: a level of development of a social and economic infrastructure of region and population living conditions. Author’s mathematical models of formation of the integrated estimated indexes formulated on principles of the factorial analysis of hierarchies are used. The constructed estimated integrated indexes form a basis of ranging of territories, both in an annual cut and in dynamics on years that, in turn, allows to analyse the change in ratings of territories (during 5-10 years): on a level of development of an infrastructure and quality of life of the population. Authors give results of computer modelling of an index of development of a social and economic infrastructure. Here authors use additional parameters for the measurement of an index of capital investments in an infrastructure. Further, authors model an index of quality of life of the population. Here the methods used are the analysis of hierarchies, the factorial analysis and a method of the main things a component. Then the interrelation analysis between tendencies of change of indexes through comparison of ranks of territories is made. Theoretical offers of authors are accompanied by quantitative results of modelling experiments on materials of 30 Chinese provinces for the period of 10 years period.
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Wong, Peng Yew, Woon-Weng Wong, and Kwabena Mintah. "Residential property market determinants: evidence from the 2018 Australian market downturn." Property Management 38, no. 2 (December 3, 2019): 157–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/pm-07-2019-0043.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to validate and uncover the key determinants revolving around the Australian residential market downturn towards the 2020s. Design/methodology/approach Applying well-established time series econometric methods over a decade of data set provided by Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia and Real Capital Analytics, the significant and emerging drivers impacting the Australian residential property market performance are explored. Findings Besides changes in the significant levels of some key traditional market drivers, housing market capital liquidity and cross-border investment fund were found to significantly impact the Australian residential property market between 2017 and 2019. The presence of some major positive economic conditions such as low interest rate, sustainable employment and population growth was perceived inadequate to uplift the Australian residential property market. The Australian housing market has performed negatively during this period mainly due to diminishing capital liquidity, excess housing supplies and retreating foreign investors. Practical implications A better understanding of the leading and emerging determinants of the residential property market will assist the policy makers to make sound decisions and effective policy changes based on the latest development in the Australian housing market. The results also provide a meaningful path for future property investments and investigations that explore country-specific effects through a comparative analysis. Originality/value The housing market determinants examined in this study revolve around the wider economic conditions in Australia that are not new. However, the coalesce analysis on the statistical results and the current housing market trends revealed some distinguishing characteristics and developments towards the 2020s Australian residential property market downturn.
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Ma, Le, Chunlu Liu, and Anthony Mills. "Construction labor productivity convergence: a conditional frontier approach." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 23, no. 3 (May 16, 2016): 283–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-03-2015-0040.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose – Understanding and simulating construction activities is a vital issue from a macro-perspective, since construction is an important contributor in economic development. Although the construction labor productivity frontier has attracted much research effort, the temporal and regional characteristics have not yet been explored. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and dynamics within construction development under a conditional frontier context. Design/methodology/approach – Analogous to the simplified production function, this research adopts the conditional frontier theory to investigate the convergence of construction labor productivity across regions and over time. Error correction models are implemented to identify the long-run equilibrium and dynamics of construction labor productivity against three types of convergence hypotheses, while a panel regression method is used to capture the regional heterogeneity. The developed models are applied to investigate and simulate the construction labor productivity in the Australian states and territories. Findings – The results suggest that construction labor productivity in Australia should converge to stable frontiers in a long-run perspective. The dynamics of the productivity are mainly caused by the technology utilization efficiency levels of the local construction industry, while the influences of changes in technology level and capital depending appear limited. Five regional clusters of the Australian construction labor productivity are suggested by the simulation results, including New South Wales; Australian Capital Territory; Northern Territory, Queensland, and Western Australia; South Australia; and Tasmania and Victoria. Originality/value – Three types of frontier of construction labor productivity is proposed. An econometric approach is developed to identify the convergence frontier of construction labor productivity across regions over time. The specified model can provides accurate predictions of the construction labor productivity.
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Kirshen, Paul H., Andrea L. Larsen, Richard M. Vogel, and William Moomaw. "Lack of influence of climate on present cost of water supply in the USA." Water Policy 6, no. 4 (August 1, 2004): 269–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2004.0018.
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Previous studies have sought to develop econometric models of water supply systems, which can be used to predict future water supply costs; none, however, have investigated the influence of climatic factors. In this paper, climatic and other regional influences on the costs of water supply in the USA are explored using multivariate analysis of water supply costs from water supply utilities located throughout the USA. Results showed that over 90% of the variation in present water supply capital and operating costs for surface and ground water systems can be explained by variations in quantity of water delivered, with other variables, particularly regional climate, playing a negligible role. An analysis of the historic development of water supply in the USA showed that capital expenses for water supply systems are a relatively small component of the present total annual costs because: (1) the original capital expenditures were reduced for utilities due to large public subsidization; (2) repayment of capital expenditures is now complete owing to the long time period since the original investments; and (3) new policies encourage demand management instead of supply expansion. Therefore, the present costs of water supply are not related to climate and thus are not a useful guide to future costs in studies that evaluate climate change impacts.
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Meyer, Daniel Francois, and Lerato Mothibi. "The Effect of Risk Rating Agencies Decisions on Economic Growth and Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 7 (June 24, 2021): 288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070288.
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Over the last decade, the South African economy has endured prevailing economic challenges, including weak economic growth, unreliable electricity supply, rising fiscal deficits, declining investment inflows and the inexorable rise in government debt alongside the expected impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Credit ratings have significantly evolved, making them key elements in the modern financial markets because of their creditworthiness opinions, as many investors across the globe rely heavily on their opinions. A quantitative research approach was followed using data from 1994Q1 to 2020Q2. The analysis entailed a descriptive and econometric analysis where two models were estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings reveal long-run relationships between economic growth (GDP), risk rating index, foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rate, gross fixed capital formation and lending rates. The results also reveal a bi-directional causality between economic growth and the rating index and between FDI and the rating index. This study’s findings suggest that investments and economic growth in the country need to be stimulated significantly to impact risk rating agencies decisions. Policymakers need to redirect resources towards effective and efficient capital-forming initiatives and development projects to improve the country’s sovereign risk rating to re-ignite growth.
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Tudose, Mihaela Brindusa, Valentina Diana Rusu, and Silvia Avasilcai. "Performance Management for Growth: A Framework Based on EVA." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 3 (March 4, 2021): 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14030102.
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Some of the constructs in the field of performance management are intuitive or not empirically validated. This study provides a data-driven framework for measuring and improving the performance through synchronized strategies. The ultimate goal was to provide support for increasing business performance. Empirical research materializes in an exploratory case study and a statistical analysis with econometric models. The case study revealed that a company can improve its performance, even in periods of growth, being characterized by consistent investments. The statistical analysis, performed on a restricted sample of companies, confirmed the results that were provided by the case study. The measurement of performance was made by capitalizing on financial and non-financial data precisely to intensify the interest for corporate sustainability. The obtained results, contrary to previous research that showed that economic value added (EVA) is negatively influenced by the increase in invested capital, open up new research perspectives to find out whether, at the industry level, performance appraisal that is based on EVA stimulates the development of a business’s economic capital. The research has a double utility: scientific (by providing an overview of the state of the art in the field of performance management) and practical (by providing a reference model for measuring and monitoring performance).
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Higgins, Andrew, Ian Watson, Chris Chilcott, Mingwei Zhou, Rodolfo García-Flores, Sandra Eady, Stephen McFallan, Di Prestwidge, and Luis Laredo. "A framework for optimising capital investment and operations in livestock logistics." Rangeland Journal 35, no. 2 (2013): 181. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj12090.
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Despite the longevity, scale and importance of northern Australia’s beef industry, recent disruptions to external markets have demonstrated a degree of vulnerability to shocks in the supply chain. Matching the industry’s long-evident resilience to climatic variability with resilience to changes in markets and supply chains requires careful planning. One component of this is how investments in infrastructure will need to be planned to facilitate adaptive responses to market changes. This paper provides an outline of a modelling framework that links strategic and operational dynamic models of logistics along the supply chain from the property to the abattoir or port. A novelty of the methodology is that it takes into account the high granularity of individual livestock transport vehicle movements and the ability to scale up to an almost complete view of logistics costs across the entire beef industry of northern Australia. The paper illustrates how the methodology could be used to examine the effects of changes in logistics infrastructure on efficiency and costs using examples from the states of Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.
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Prevedouros, Panos D. "Origin-Specific Visitor Demand Forecasting at Honolulu International Airport." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1600, no. 1 (January 1997): 18–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1600-03.
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The development of a PC-based and easy-to-use-and-update econometric model system for forecasting arrivals at the Honolulu International Airport is presented. A model system instead of a single model was designed so that differential growth rates from various origins as well as arrivals affected by curfews at the origin or the destination, or both, can be estimated. The airport system of the state facilitates the only mode of transportation into and out of Hawaii. Planning based on reliable demand forecasts is therefore essential. Separate models of arrivals from Australia and New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Korea, and the United Kingdom were specified and estimated using the Cochrane-Orcutt regression method. Several diagnostic tests were employed to arrive at the final models, as problems of correlation (over time) and collinearity (among variables) were present. Independent variables include the gross domestic product, population, monetary exchange rate, and unemployment rate of the origin countries. Historical values for the independent variables were taken from the publications of international organizations. Variables for wars that tend to affect flying security and natural disasters in Hawaii that affect the supply of tourist accommodations were included in the model specifications.