Relevant bibliographies by topics / Intertemporal relationship

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Book chapters
  4. Conference papers
  5. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Intertemporal relationship'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 18 May 2024

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Journal articles on the topic "Intertemporal relationship"

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Li, Hongxia, and Guoquan Chen. "Benevolence–dependability value and intertemporal choice: Moderating effect of perceived socioeconomic status." Social Behavior and Personality: an international journal 46, no. 9 (September 7, 2018): 1573–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2224/sbp.6826.

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We recruited 118 university student participants from Beijing to examine how the benevolence–dependability value affects intertemporal choice and how perceived socioeconomic status moderates this relationship. The results showed that participants' benevolence–dependability value positively predicted their intertemporal choice, and that perceived socioeconomic status moderated this relationship. Further, the benevolence–dependability value of individuals of higher perceived socioeconomic status did not have a significant effect on intertemporal choice. In contrast, the benevolence–dependability value of those of lower perceived socioeconomic status significantly affected their intertemporal choice. These findings suggest that individuals with the benevolence–dependability value make long-term decisions. Theoretical implications for the development of long-term benefits and practical implications for the planning of effective training for business are discussed.
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Cheng, Jiuqing. "THE ROLE OF NUMERACY AND IMPULSIVITY IN INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE AND DECISION MAKING." Psychological Thought 13, no. 1 (April 30, 2020): 254–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.37708/psyct.v13i1.442.

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A growing body of research has indicated a relationship between numeracy and decision making and that lower numerate people display more disadvantageous decisions. In the domain of intertemporal choice, researchers have long been using impulsivity to address choice preference. To further illuminate the psychological mechanisms of making intertemporal choices, the present study examined the role of impulsivity and numeracy in intertemporal choice, in the presence of each other. The study adopted both subjective and numeracy scales. These scales correlated with each other and with intertemporal choice preference. Moreover, it was found that after controlling for impulsivity, the object numeracy was significantly associated with choice preference, with higher numerate participants showing a stronger preference toward the later larger gains over the sooner smaller gains. Thus, the study indicated that intertemporal choice preference could be attributed to both impulsivity and numeracy.
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Wang, Yue, Xiaoyu Wang, Xiao Yang, Fangyuan Yuan, and Ying Li. "View of Times and Temporal Focus under the Pace of Life on the Impact of Intertemporal Decision Making." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 5 (February 28, 2023): 4301. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20054301.

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Previous studies have explored the effects of time poverty and money worship on intertemporal decision making based on a resource scarcity perspective. However, how the pace of life affects intertemporal decision making has not been examined. Furthermore, manipulating time perceptions can influence intertemporal decision-making preferences. Based on the perspective of time perception differences, it remains unknown how views of time or temporal focus affect the intertemporal decision making of individuals with different pace of life. To address these issues, study 1 adopted a correlational study to initially explore the relationship between the pace of life and intertemporal decision making. Studies 2 and 3 used manipulation experiments to examine the effects of the pace of life and view of time and temporal focus and pace of life on intertemporal decision making. The results suggest that the faster the life pace, the more recent rewards are preferred. Views of time and temporal focus manipulations can influence the intertemporal decision making of faster-paced individuals, making them prefer smaller–sooner (SS) payoffs under a linear view of time or future temporal focus and larger–later (LL) payoffs under a circular view of time or past temporal focus. However, the manipulation does not affect the intertemporal decision of slower-paced individuals. Our study examined the effect of the pace of life on intertemporal decision making based on a resource scarcity perspective, and found boundary conditions for the influence of the view of time and temporal focus on intertemporal decision making based on the perspective of differences in people’s perception of time.
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Domowitz, Ian, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Bruce C. Petersen. "The Intertemporal Stability of the Concentration-Margins Relationship." Journal of Industrial Economics 35, no. 1 (September 1986): 13. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2098604.

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Yang, Boru, Chenglei Xu, Hongxun Zhang, and Yan Feng. "Dynamic Fusion Simulation Method of Intertemporal Decision Preferences of Large Groups in Weak Relationships." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2022 (March 17, 2022): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6323550.

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The fusion of large group decision-making preferences is generally based on hard constraints, and the general low-consensus heterogeneous preference interaction situation of weak relationship decision-making under soft constraints has not been investigated. This study puts forward the preference connotation structure and preference attributes of the intertemporal decision-making of weak relationships groups, objective preference comparison standards between individuals, preference interaction neighborhoods between individuals, preference learning adjustment rules, and preference cycle interaction result evaluation connotations. On this basis, this research constructs a multistage and multiple-round intertemporal decision-making preference dynamic fusion theory and a method for weak relationship large groups. The simulation results verify and support the constructed preference fusion theory and method, indicating that a relatively rational interactive learning and adjustment process can improve the group decision-making performance of the key digital technology R&D team for offshore wind power project construction, operation, and maintenance and effectively improve the convergence level, convergence time, comprehensive decision-making benefits, and decision-making cognition. In the increasingly open large group intertemporal decision-making situation, these research viewpoints and conclusions will help to expand the strong relationship hypotheses of preference fusion in previous group decision-making research. The research opinions and conclusions supplement the theory and method of preference interaction fusion under soft constraints in large group decision-making.
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Chiang, Thomas C., Huimin Li, and Dazhi Zheng. "The intertemporal risk-return relationship: Evidence from international markets." Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 39 (November 2015): 156–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.06.003.

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班, 琦. "The Relationship between Future Time Perspective and Intertemporal Choice." Advances in Psychology 09, no. 02 (2019): 395–403. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/ap.2019.92048.

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He, Miao, Guibing He, Jiaxin Chen, and Yuan Wang. "Sense of control matters: A long spatial distance leads to a short-term investment preference." Judgment and Decision Making 14, no. 3 (May 2019): 299–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500004344.

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AbstractIncreasingly, we can invest in projects that are distributed around the world through online investment platforms. Will the spatial distance between these projects and ourselves affect our investment preferences? The present research aims to experimentally examine the impact of spatial distance on intertemporal preferences for investment returns and to explore the underlying mediating effect of the sense of control. Three studies were devised to address this topic. Studies 1 and 2 used two methods to manipulate the spatial distance between the location of investment projects and the location of investors. Participants were more impatient with investment returns when the investment project was located farther away. In other words, they preferred lower but earlier returns in intertemporal choice. Moreover, participants’ sense of control over the investment project mediated the relationship between spatial distance and intertemporal preferences. Using a priming method, Study 3 showed that participants’ impatience for investment returns in investments with different spatial distances could be remedied by giving them generalized control. Theoretical implications for studies regarding psychological distance and intertemporal decision making and practical implications for investments are discussed.
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Saltari, Enrico, and Davide Ticchi. "Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the aggregate investment–uncertainty relationship." Journal of Monetary Economics 54, no. 3 (April 2007): 622–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.01.002.

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姚, 维鑫. "A Review of the Relationship between Individual Reputation and Intertemporal Choice." Advances in Psychology 11, no. 03 (2021): 801–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/ap.2021.113092.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Intertemporal relationship"

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Saha, Subrata Kumar. "Effects of structural changes on the intertemporal relationship between government expenditure and government revenue of South-East Asian economy." Thesis, University of North Bengal, 2016. http://ir.nbu.ac.in/handle/123456789/2632.

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Daugherty, James R. "Time perception’s effect on individual differences and behavior: the mediating role of impulsivity on the relationship between time perception and intertemporal health behaviors." Diss., Kansas State University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/9164.

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Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Psychology
Gary L. Brase
This research tested a general mediation model which proposes that individual differences (e.g., impulsivity, delay discounting, and time orientation) mediate the relationship between time perception (one’s subjective experience of the passage of time relative to actual time) and intertemporal behavior (decision-making involving tradeoffs between costs and rewards in both the present and the future). Study I did not find evidence to support the general mediation model and found that time perception was only weakly correlated with individual differences and intertemporal behavior (average r = .06) . Study II found tentative support for the proposed mediation model: individual differences in impulsivity fully mediated the relationship between time perception and intertemporal behavior in 4 separate mediation models. Three additional mediation models met the assumptions of mediation, demonstrating indirect effects significantly different from zero, but did not fully mediate the relationship between time perception and intertemporal behavior. In general, the mediation models explored in Study II (both fully and partially mediated) suggest that self-report impulsivity mediates the relationship between time perception and intertemporal health behaviors, like hours of sleep slept per night, sociosexual orientation, and frequency of eating breakfast. The findings from Study II suggest that how time is perceived influences intertemporal behavior indirectly by influencing impulsivity. Guidelines to aid future research linking time perception to individual differences and intertemporal behavior are provided.
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Lin, Kuei-Fu, and 林奎甫. "Intertemporal Relationship between Risk and Return：Panel Quantile Regression Approach." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/44285293258931483553.

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碩士
國立臺灣大學
經濟學研究所
101
This paper explores the Taiwan stock market’s intertemporal relation between risks and expected returns in the context of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). Our panel data models mainly rely on the time-varying conditional covariances among the return of Taiwan 50 Index (market portfolio), each corresponding component stocks returns, and the state variables including VIX, term spread, and funding liquidity spread. Specifically, the following two-stage econometric procedure are implemented: we first estimate the time-varying conditional covariances by Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, and then treat the estimates as explanatory variables in the second-stage panel quantile regression (PQR) methods to explore the shape of conditional distribution of excess returns. The risk coefficients estimated via PQR are positive over the upper right tail of the conditional distribution of excess returns; the estimation results signify negative risk coefficients over the lower left tail of conditional distribution of excess returns. No significant intertemproal relation between risk and return are identified over the neighborhood of conditional median of excess returns. Robustness checks indicate that our empirical results are robust to the choice of proxies of risk, explanatory variables, and econometric methodologies.
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HO, THI THU THAO, and 胡秋草. "Intertemporal Risk-Return Relationship in Bull and Bear Market: International Evidence in G7." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6v62fs.

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碩士
國立暨南國際大學
國際企業學系
105
The object of this research is trying to determine the existence of risk-return tradeoff, in this research, we visit the data of G7 stock market such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and USA. Whether significant relation between risk and return in bull and bear markets it is a significant positive in bull market but negative in bear market. According to Bry-Boschan method to figure out bull and bear markets and and use nonparametric measure realized variance. Business cycles are also taken account to observe the relation between risk and return. The empirical results shed light the role of bull and bear markets to make risk-return tradeoff address. Even macroeconomic fluctuation factors affect to stock price trend adding to the model.
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Tippens, Timothy. "Two Essays on the Value of Cash." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2012-08-11473.

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In the first essay, "The Source of Cash and Its Marginal Value," we study the relation between the source of firms' cash holdings and the value of the cash to shareholders. The marginal value of a dollar of cash holdings depends on the source of the dollar: $1.00 of cash has a value of $1.27 when it is from operations, $0.80 when from financing, and $0.46 when from investing. Within the same source, the marginal value of an added dollar of cash holdings is significantly higher than the absolute value of a subtracted dollar. Shareholders of financially constrained or distressed firms value incremental cash holdings from almost any source more highly than do shareholders of unconstrained or stronger firms, but differences in value remain across the sources of cash within each subsample. Agency costs and information asymmetry are two frictions that appear to have the largest impact upon the value of cash. In the second essay, "Explanations for Diverging Values of Cash," we further explain the differing values of cash found in the first essay. Intertemporal relationships among the sources and uses of cash provide a rational basis for shareholders to assign different values of cash based on the source. Sources of cash provide information about likely uses of cash up to two to three years in the future, and many of the intertemporal relations are statistically and economically significant. Likewise, prior uses of cash relate significantly to later uses of cash. Past sources of cash inform investors about likely future sources, even up to five years into the future. The fact that different kinds of cash flows have predictive power for future cash flows helps explain the wide range of the values of cash associated with different sources.
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Li, Jia-Ming, and 黎家銘. "The relationship between the intertemporal balance and the collapse of fixed exchange rate regime-the empirical studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand." Thesis, 2001. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/41320738114970921535.

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Cheng, Meng-Sheng, and 鄭孟昇. "Relationships of Intertemporal Current Accounts among the US,Canada and Mexico." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/tvgb2z.

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碩士
國立暨南國際大學
經濟學系
90
This paper is based on the viewpoint of the intertemporal substitution of the consumption smoothing. Under the consideration of the international economy, we employ the present value model to investigate the current accounts among the US Canada, and Mexico. The traditional current account approach is based on using the single country’s variables in doing estimation, and does not take the cross-country effects into account. However, with the increasing degree of the global economics and tendency of economic integration, one’s economic dynamics should be affected by each other theoretically. Due to the reason, as stated above, we modified the traditional approach to the current account to incorporate the cross-country effects, and we hope to get a better fitness of the model prediction. Trades within NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement ) have been increased significantly since its birth in 1994. Therefore, we not only pay attention to the domestic macroeconomic variables but those of neighboring countries as well in our new approach. This in turn expands the information set variable to the individual agents. According to the empirical findings, our new approach in which cross-country effects are considered does provide a better estimation and explanation of the intertemporal current accounts than the traditional one for the US and Canada. However, neither the traditional nor our new approach can provide a good interpretation of Mexican current account. This might be caused by first, the exchange rate between Mexican Peso and the US dollar fluctuates quite a lots during the period being investigated. Second, there might exist some other important factors other than national outputs, for instance, the money stock. In general, we conclude that our new approach with cross-country national outputs being considered does improve the traditional model prediction of the current accounts.
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Book chapters on the topic "Intertemporal relationship"

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Fordyce, R. Ewan. "<i>Simocetus rayi</i> (Odontoceti: Simocetidae, New Family): A Bizarre New Archaic Oligocene Dolphin from the Eastern North Pacific." In Smithsonian Contributions to Paleobiology, 185–222. Washington, D.C.: Smithsonian Institution Press, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.5479/si.00810266.93.185.

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<i>Simocetus rayi</i> (new genus, new species) is based upon a skull and mandible of a small archaic dolphin (Cetacea: Odontoceti) from the upper Oligocene Alsea Formation of Oregon, bordering the northeast Pacific. The species shows many primitive features reminiscent of the archaic odontocete family Agorophiidae: the cheek teeth appear nonpolydont, the nares and premaxillary sac fossae lie anteriorly, the orbit and facial fossa are elevated above the level of the rostrum, the ascending processes of premaxillae are narrow and long, the supraorbital processes of the maxillae are narrow, the intertemporal constriction is prominent, and the pterygoid sinus fossae are restricted to the basicranium. These features are consistent with a basal position among the odontocetes, but they do not justify placement in the paraphyletic- and probably polyphyletic-grade family Agorophiidae. <i>Simocetus rayi</i> shows some unusual autapomorphies (toothless premaxillae, anterior of rostrum and mandible downtumed) that exclude it from described taxa of odontocetes, and for this reason it is placed in a new and currently monotypic family, Simocetidae. Broader relationships are uncertain; some cranial features hint at affinities with Eurhinodelphinidae. For now, <i>S. rayi </i>is regarded as a specialized archaic odon-tocete that lies sternward (more basal) to all extant groups of Odontoceti (namely, Physeteroidea, Ziphiidae, Platanistoidea, and Delphinida). <i>Simocetus rayi </i>was perhaps a bottom feeder that preyed through suction feeding on soft-bodied invertebrates. The inferred presence of nasal turbinals and a vomeronasal organ contrasts with the situation in living odontocetes. Features of the face and basicranium point to echolocation abilities comparable to those of extant Odontoceti. <i>Simocetus rayi</i> and other contemporaneous archaic odontocetes from Oregon and Washington indicate that odontocetes were taxonomically and ecologically diverse by the late Oligocene.
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Bradfield, James. "Financial Markets and Economic Efficiency." In Introduction to the Economics of Financial Markets, 19–43. Oxford University PressNew York, NY, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195310634.003.0002.

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Abstract In chapter 1, we explained that the essential function of a system of financial markets is to facilitate mutually beneficial intertemporal exchanges. We also learned that economists use the concept of economic efficiency to evaluate how well financial markets, as regulated by public policy, perform. In this chapter, we discuss the relationship between financial markets and economic efficiency. Financial markets facilitate mutually beneficial intertemporal exchanges by organizing trading in financial securities. These securities, and the information contained in their prices, enable individuals to reach higher levels of lifetime utility than would be possible in the absence of financial markets. We begin this chapter with a brief treatment of financial securities, followed by a discussion of the more important tasks that financial markets must perform to be economically efficient. We include brief treatments of two kinds of market failures. We conclude with a general discussion of informational efficiency and the efficient markets hypothesis.
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Fuksová, Jana. "Desetiletá lhůta pro stanovení daně – vybrané otevřené otázky." In Správa daní: Soubor statí z odborné konference konané na Právnické fakultě Univerzity Karlovy dne 6. října 2023, 53–67. Univerzita Karlova, Právnická fakulta, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.14712/9788076300361.4.

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The article focuses on two current issues of the so-called ten-year period for tax assessment, or more precisely, the maximum ten-year period for tax assessment (Art. 148(5) of the Tax Code) with a significant impact on practice. Specifically, the questions of intertemporal effects of the new legislation of the Tax Code are addressed – whether and what is the effect of court proceedings initiated after 1 January 2011 on the maximum length of the tax determination period; and the question of the relationship between the special legislation on the tax determination period under the Income Tax Act (Section 38r of the Income Tax Act) and the rules of the Tax Code – is the maximum length of the tax determination period affected by the recognition of a tax loss or the use of a discount on account of investment incentives. The aim of the article is to find answers to the above questions, on which there are conflicting opinions in case law and literature, based on the analysis of the legislation, its interpretation using relevant interpretative methods, analysis of available literature and case law. Answering these questions is crucial for legal practice. The maximum length of the tax assessment period is a major milestone for both tax authorities and taxpayers. According to practical experience, these issues determine the outcome of a number of disputes between tax administrators and tax subjects.
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Bulley, Adam, and Daniel L. Schacter. "Episodic future thinking, memory, and decision-making." In Memory in Science for Society, 123—C6P231. Oxford University PressOxford, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192849069.003.0006.

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Abstract Aside from its role in remembering the past, memory also contributes to the human capacity to think about what might happen in the future. Such prospective cognition is a foundation of adaptive behaviour and serves multiple functions in everyday life. This chapter focuses on one such function: flexible decision-making that takes delayed consequences into account. Intertemporal trade-offs between sooner and later consequences are pervasive in human affairs, arising in decisions about finances, health, relationships, politics, and the environment. Accordingly, intertemporal choice has emerged as a fulcrum in applying the cognitive science of prospection. Much of this applied work has focused on using future thinking to reduce delay discounting and encourage patience in the behavioural health domain, and this chapter reviews the promise of those efforts. However, it cautions that reducing delay discounting is not necessarily desirable given that excessive patience has its own costs, and it points towards cases where farsightedness paradoxically encourages less patience, not more. Attempts to improve decision-making will benefit from a fuller theoretical picture that captures the idiosyncrasies of deliberation.
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Goodhart, Charles, and Boris Hofmann. "Default, Credit Growth and Asset Prices." In House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Implications for Banking and Price Stability, 145–72. Oxford University PressOxford, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199204595.003.0009.

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Abstract The analytical relationships between financial markets for defaultible financial assets and the real economy remain obscure. This is, perhaps, because the maintained assumption in most macroeconomic theoretical models is that all agents always pay their debts (with probability 1). This then implies that all agents can borrow (lend) an indefinite amount (to maximize their intertemporal utility) at the risk-free rate. So there is consequently no need for financial intermediaries, and there is only one market (for the risk-free asset), where—in such models—the interest rate is, in most cases, set by the reaction function of a central bank, inter- acting with the expectations of the private sector. Woodford (2003) is the canonical example, in which there are no commercial banks (or any other intermediary), no default and only one financial market.
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Silva, Elvira, Spiro E. Stefanou, and Alfons Oude Lansink. "Dynamic Economic Decision Making." In Dynamic Efficiency and Productivity Measurement, 57–92. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190919474.003.0004.

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This chapter presents dynamic optimization for economic decision making in the context of both dynamic cost minimization and dynamic profit maximization given different primal representations of the dynamic technology. The Bellman equation of dynamic programming serves as the analytical foundation for the duality between the production technology and the economic value function. The dynamic duality relationships in the form of intertemporal versions of Hotelling’s and Shephard’s lemmas are presented. The chapter concludes with the data envelopment perspective of the dynamic decision-making framework. Allowing the data to reveal the nature of the production technology, both the input and output quantities can be used to reveal the inner bound of the technology. Alternatively, the technological information can be recovered by exploiting the dynamic cost minimization behavior using input prices and input and output quantities, to reveal the outer bound of the input requirement set.
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MaCurdy, Thomas. "Chapter 62 A Practitioner's Approach to Estimating Intertemporal Relationships Using Longitudinal Data: Lessons from Applications in Wage Dynamics." In Handbook of Econometrics, 4057–167. Elsevier, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1573-4412(07)06062-x.

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Conference papers on the topic "Intertemporal relationship"

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Azgün, Sabri. "Implications of Intertemporal External Budget Deficits in Euroasian Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01213.

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Economies should pay attention to the deficits of the balance of payments in order to achieve a sustainable economic growth and development within the process of globalisation. A country having risks in terms of current account deficits can be evaluated as the current economic policy is having problems at present and will have in days to come in the point of sustainability. The sustainability of the current account deficits are defined by the intertemporal budget constraint. According to the budget constraints, the path of outlays to the external world with revenues obtained from abroad determines intertemporal solvency contidion. If there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between these two variables, intertemporal budget constaint will not be provided. The aim of this study is to determine whether it satisfies the intertemporal solvency condition of Euorasian economies for the period 2005Q1-2014Q4. In this study, by analyzing intertemporal externel budget consratint by unit root and cointegration methods, it is examined that carries potantieal risk in terms of the current account balance of Euroasian economies.
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Reports on the topic "Intertemporal relationship"

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Boyarchenko, Nina, Richard K. Crump, Keshav Dogra, Leonardo Elias, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney. The Nonlinear Case Against Leaning Against the Wind. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.59576/sr.1100.

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We re-examine the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in a setting that allows for nonlinear, time-varying relationships between monetary policy, financial stability, and macroeconomic outcomes. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we estimate a flexible “nonlinear VAR” for the stance of monetary policy, real activity, inflation, and financial conditions, and evaluate counterfactual evolutions of downside risk to real activity under alternative monetary policy paths. We find that a tighter path of monetary policy in 2003-05 would have increased the risk of adverse real outcomes three to four years ahead, especially if the tightening had been large or rapid. This suggests that there is limited evidence to support “leaning against the wind” even once one allows for rich nonlinearities, intertemporal dependence, and crisis predictability.
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Frydman, Roman, Søren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, and Morten Nyboe Tabor. Asset Prices Under Knightian Uncertainty. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp172.

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We extend Lucas’s classic asset-price model by opening the stochastic process driving dividends to Knightian uncertainty arising from unforeseeable change. Implementing Muth’s hypothesis, we represent participants’ expectations as being consistent with our model’s predictions and formalize their ambiguity-averse decisions with maximization of intertemporal multiple-priors utility. We characterize the asset-price function with a stochastic Euler equation and derive a novel prediction that the relationship between prices and dividends undergoes unforeseeable change. Our approach accords participants’ expectations, driven by both fundamental and psychological factors, an autonomous role in driving the asset price over time, without presuming that participants are irrational.
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