Academic literature on the topic 'International political communication'

The article is intended to the analysis of geopolitical, conflict-related, strategic interests of Ukraine, which can be realized within the framework of the South vector of the state geopolitics through rational and pragmatic cooperation with the trans-regional leader of the region – Turkey. The purpose of the study is to identify priority areas of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the Black Sea region for the effective implementation of geostrategic interests of Ukraine, and the regularity of development of systems in political defense of states during crises and modern military-political conflicts. The use of interdisciplinary approach and methods of analytical, comparative analysis made it possible to study and analyze the evolution of the value-ideological loads which dominate the implementation of Eastern or Western geopolitical vectors. The necessity to take into account political, social, and conflict-related imbalances and integration constraints revealed the pragmatic direction of the implementation of an equidistant foreign policy of a three-dimensional format which can be viewed as an alternative vector of bilateral cooperation with Turkey, a joint position with which will ensure accelerated development of Ukraine and will help avoid pressure from the European Union and the Russian Federation.

In the international scholarship, Chinese political communication is usually viewed from a political-economic and West-centric perspective. Consequently, it is portrayed as a product of the Chinese Communist Party(‘s ideology), deviant, totalitarian and unchanging. In this article I first argue for a historical and intercultural approach and so a view of contemporary Chinese political discourse as dynamic, critical-creative and cultural-hegemony-resistant. Then I analyze and assess accordingly the case of the Chinese discourse of human rights. It will be seen that this discourse has been evolving topically, reinforcing socially, and responding interculturally, thereby constituting a historic transformation in China’s human rights situation on the one hand and a counter-veiling force in the unbalanced international communication on human rights on the other. In conclusion I suggest that the mainstream scholarship go beyond the a-historical-and-a-intercultural approach to political communication in general and to that of non-Western societies in particular.

Conceptual approaches to the study of the text as phenomenon are highlighted; its place and role in the communicative activity of the individual, social groups, state, international actors are determined. The peculiarities of political communication in the political and diplomatic activities of states in the international arena are analyzed. The importance of linguistics in diplomatic relations cannot be underestimated. Diplomatic etiquette and norms of the negotiation process significantly affect both the success of the process in international relations and the positions of the parties and their willingness to cooperate. The relevance of this study lies in the attraction of sources of different origin for a comprehensive analysis and processing of this little-studied aspect of international relations. The aim of the article is to analyze the issue of political text in political linguistics and its place in political communication within political and diplomatic activities of multilateral cooperation. The methodological basis of the research is a multidisciplinary approach, which includes both general and specific scientific research methods. The methodology is based on a systematic approach, which is to study the political text as a single system of interconnected elements (linguistic, communicative, discourse), which are characterized by interconnectedness and interdependence. This allows us to consider the text as a set of speech and writing activities to create a text as an element of communicative activity and the result of political communication, which creates a text as a result of the political willing of the state in the international arena.

In protracted international conflicts, truth is often sacrificed in the name of victory. Political realists see international politics as a competition to win power, retain power, and demonstrate power; misleading the enemy in the name of strategy and misleading the public in the name of security are necessary elements of the game. A less obvious condition is that those caught in the cycle of intergroup conflict also withhold truths from themselves. This denial of truth and reality--to the Other, to the public, and to the self--is especially prevalent in the communicative relationship between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This study explores the communicative relationship between the United States and Iran via mass media with a particular focus on propaganda as "natural." The literature review explains how conflict-conditioned communication grows and operates within the context of intergroup conflict, including the significance of globalization and information technology. The communicative relationship between the United States and Iran is used as a case study to explore conflict-conditioned communication. A snapshot of the U.S.-Iran communicative relationship was taken from May 1, 2005 - May 1, 2008. Articles from three print and online media sources were combed and analyzed for examples and patterns of conflict-conditioned communication. The method is based on an approach to understanding conflict-conditioned communication that was developed by Dr. Harry Anastasiou, a conflict resolution professional and educator. The method additionally utilizes the work of Dr. William O. Beeman, an expert on misperceptions between the United States and Iran. The conflict-conditioned communicative relationship between the United States and Iran shows how legitimate concerns and human needs are filtered through collective psychology, history, and national identity and absorbed into misperceptions. These misperceptions are perpetuated through propaganda and lead to unyielding political positions. The dual phenomena of globalization and advanced information technology amplify these unyielding political positions by spreading propagandized misperceptions faster and farther than ever before. As the United States and Iran become more entrenched in unyielding political positions, communication reduces to competing systems of propaganda, thus making peaceful conflict resolution less likely.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a contributing factor to Middle East instability for the last six decades. Both Israelis and Palestinians have practiced terrorization against one another and more so, have engaged in the rationalization of terrorization to justify their desired goals. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the political communication through which Israelis and Palestinians have used tools to rationalize their acts of terrorization. Drawing on Hobbes's (1985) rationality, James' (1971) morality legitimacy on conflict and diplomacy, and Dilthey's (Hodges, 1974; Ermarth, 1978; De Mul, 2004) critique of historic reason, this thesis looks into modern theories of classical political realism (Morgenthau, 2006), rational actor and bounded rationality decision-making (Snyder & Diesing, 1977), Orientalism (Said, 1994), Occidentalism (Buruma & Avishai, 2005), cultural representation (Hall, 1997a), and state and non-state terrorism (Jaggar, 2005) in order to investigate the Israeli-Palestinian political communication during the Gaza War of 2008-2009 and the subsequent release of the Goldstone Report. This thesis utilizes quantitative and qualitative online media content analysis as a methodological design with historical-comparative components through which a sample of the Israel Defense Forces, the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, and Arutz Sheva (Israel) as well as the Ezzedeen Al Qassam Brigades, the Palestine News Network, and The Palestine Telegraph (Palestine) has been selected. Findings explore the components of the decision-making processes by both adversaries in order to politically communicate their rationalization of terrorization of one another. These components demonstrate the different decision-making processes of each adversary in selecting strategies of rationalization (e.g., Israelis rationalize in order to defend themselves from eight years of Hamas rocket fire into Israel, while Palestinians rationalize as a means of seeking sympathetic support for their cause---with each adversary using different tools and tactics), resulting in unique patterns that can be applied to future instances of Israeli-Palestinian rationalization of terrorization.

Many expected that the fall of Soviet communism would result in the democratization of its successor states. The majority of the post-Soviet republics announced democracy as their new way of development; however, very few have evolved into democratization processes. Kazakhstan's democratization has resulted in the formation of authoritative presidentialism, though with limited liberalization (Cummings, 2002, p. 9). Kazakhstan has neither established the anomalous democracy as its most influential neighbor in Eastern Europe, Russia, nor has become the extreme sultanism like its Central Asian fellow, Turkmenistan. According to Cummings (2002), Kazakhstan has shaped "a hybrid, transitional regime of part-authoritarianism" (p. 5). Although the political system has not proved to be democratic, Kazakhstan underwent through distinctive changes of "transitional regime." Scholars have applied various approaches to study a transition of post-communist states. Analyzing political speeches and discourse, linguists and rhetoricians have contributed in a general field of political science, but they have practically disregarded post-Soviet area. Scholars in political science have addressed democratizatsiia in Central Asia from different angles (Cummings, 2002; Dawisha & Parrott, 1997a; Olcott, 1995). The traditional perspective, which examines the fairness of presidential and political elections, the government-media relationships, and human rights, has received their closest attention (Dawisha & Parrott, 1997a). Olcott (1995; 1997) has thoroughly observed the political transition in Kazakhstan specifically by providing a full overview of the political and social structure of the republic. Scholars have never studied democratizatsiia in Central Asia from communication lenses. Specifically, no study on the presidential discourses and their connection with the democratization process in Central Asia exists so far. This study examines the relationship between democratizatsiia in Kazakhstan and the political discourse of its president, Nursultan Nazarbaev. I consider the dynamic of presidential discourse development as an indicator of transitional changes in the political regime of Kazakhstan. This work addresses the questions, what is the relationship between presidential discourse and democratizatsiia in Kazakhstan? This thesis asks: What role does presidential discourse play in the republic's transition from the Soviet totalitarian system? Does the discourse of Nazarbaev reveal the real political situation of the country? From the standpoint of the discourse, is Kazakhstan moving toward or away from democracy? I discuss these issues through content analysis of Nazarbaev's speeches form 1984 to present. The thesis seeks to discover whether the governmental discourse of rule has changed over decades of democratizatsiia since the independence. The study of the presidential discourse complements the previous research on democratizatsiia in Kazakhstan and helps in better understanding the political situation of this country.

The purpose of this study is to explore global leadership communication competencies, as the communicative knowledge, skills and abilities of current business leaders do not meet the current sophisticated and fast-paced business demands of the interconnected global marketplace. Specifically, this study examines what attributes comprise communication competency for corporate leaders with global responsibilities, how those competencies are developed, and finally the impact the competencies have on organizations. A qualitative field study was conducted with two global leaders from two different regions of the world as they interacted with others from different cultures. A separate quantitative survey was administered to 95 global leaders from North America, Asia, Europe and Latin America. Findings from a review of the literature combined with the correlation of these two studies are as follows: (a) virtual communication efficacy may be greatly enhanced when the terms and conditions associated with non-verbal clues is deliberate and modeled by leadership; (b) foreign language competency is deemed more important by global leaders outside of North America, but all respondents report general dissatisfaction with the corporate support of foreign language competency; (c) the concept of facework, and its associated competencies, are key to working across borders but awareness and understanding of this concept is very low. The findings of this study demonstrate a business case for building global leadership communicative competency with new skills, in new ways, for new demands in the face-paced and interconnected business environment.

The world of telecommunications has dramatically evolved these last few years. With the wind of liberalization blowing, private companies are playing a new role in an area where monopolistic public entities had always imposed their rules. New technologies are now opening broad perspectives which were even not forecast a few years ago. In only ten years, mobile communication systems have witnessed three different technologies and are now integrating the latest concept, satellite mobile communications called S-PCS (Satellite Personal Communication Systems, which is the faculty of being contacted at anytime, anywhere).
New players are emerging from the United States and tend to impose their predominance to the world. With the award of a licence to operate by the Federal Communications Commission to them, three US companies have gained a headstart, which only one non-US company, Inmarsat ICO, seems capable to challenge. However, in order to achieve the global communications era of S-PCS, they will have to overcome implementation barriers such as the authorization to operate on a worldwide basis.
Countries are not ready yet to relinquish their sovereignty on telecommunications and each company will have to be licensed in each country to be able to provide their service.
If they can implement these new technologies, the new systems will definitely dominate the international mobile communication era for the next ten years.

The thesis contributes to evolving debates on spatial theorising in the discipline of International Relations (IR). It argues that spatial interpretation in the discipline is both gendered, through its focus on public institutions of politics, and state-centric, through a neo/Realist hegemony of ideas in its discourse. These discursive parameters are argued to impose limitations on the study of transnational phenomena, and the thesis therefore develops a framework for analysis apposite to research into political activity that is not state-centred. This analytical frarnework is based initially upon the work of Henri Lefebvre, and identifies three categories of analysis: spatial practice, representations of space and space of representation. In this respect the thesis introduces a form of spatial methodology to the discipline. The thesis argues that these categories provide a more flexible model for analysis of complex interactions in the international arena than extant approaches in the discipline can provide, by permitting examination of political activity at the level of agency. The spatial categories are applied to two transnational phenomena of relevance to the discipline: the international political practices of non-governmental organizations(NGOs), and their use of information and communications technologies (ICTs). A survey of the use of ICT's by Amnesty International, Christian Aid, Friends of the Earth, the Institute for Journalism in Transition and Oxfam is undertaken. The thesis then analyses the use of ICTs as a political tool by these organizations, using spatial theories as a framework. The application of spatial theories as a methodological approach aims to extend the discursive parameters of the discipline by introducing a less gendered, more flexible analytical model, appropriate to research into complex political practices.

When Tony Blair took Britain to war in Iraq in 2003, he overruled vociferous opposition from both the wider public and members of his own governing party. Public opinion was exercised by the issue on a vast scale. Over one million marched in London against the war. Opinion polls uniformly showed majority opposition to the use of force. Newspapers, the engine of media debate in this country, mostly attacked the government line, and encouraged their readers to protest or even, in one case, to rebel. The story of Iraq, however, is not simply one of an ideological or misguided premier dragging the entire nation to battle against its will. It is not simply one of ‘spin’, dossiers, Alastair Campbell, and Weapons of Mass Destruction. Much of the debate, and much of the hostility it generated, focused on areas that foreign policy analysts would consider peripheral; the domestic political consequences of war, the role of ‘spin doctors’ in the assessment of intelligence, and the question of whether the Prime Minister’s (successful) efforts to build a strong alliance with the world’s last superpower had transformed him into the President’s ‘poodle’. Interactions between ministers and the media were conditioned on both sides by an intimidating array of structural pressures. Diplomatic and journalistic calculations often clashed, trapping the government in the middle of an immensely complex ‘multi-level game’. News management influenced substantive foreign policy just as policy influenced news management, and the media arguably affected both, albeit often indirectly. The substance and the communication of the decision to go to war proved to be inseparable, both in the course of decision-making, and in their later retrospective assessment. Public Opinion, broadly defined, had a significant impact on British foreign policy at this time. Crucially, however, this impact operated through political communication mechanisms usually ignored by FPA.

Sustained academic and popular interest in the Holocaust depends largely on the ability of educators to communicate its universality. At Holocaust memorials around the world, educators make strategic rhetorical choices in pursuit of this imperative. However, as communicators present narratives, documentation, and visual rhetoric at memorials, they filter each message through a unique cultural lens. This unavoidable human tendency raises questions concerning the degree to which culture shapes Holocaust narratives. Given that Holocaust memorials may offer pivot insights into modern and future genocides, cultural influences on Holocaust rhetoric seem worthy of renewed evaluation. Burke's dramatistic pentad provides a valuable tool with which a scholar can evaluate the rhetoric at Holocaust memorials. The pentad preserves unique facets of the communication acts, enabling a rhetor to identify differences between the memorials, while providing a universally applicable framework through which to view the memorials. This pentadic analysis reveals that Holocaust memorials address many of the same universal questions. The answers to these questions, however, depend on the culture surrounding the memorial. Such a finding seems to indicate that a global event such as the Holocaust will stimulate the same questions in citizens across a variety of cultures, but that citizens will reach different conclusions about the event based on the influences of their culture.

The tolerance is one of the issues that have aroused the interest of specialists and activists in political and cultural affairs in various countries of the world. Especially those countries whose societies have suffered from: societal crises, national or religious differences, and civil wars or internal or external political conflicts. Because of the developments in the human rights movement and the activities of international organizations and their role in alleviating conflicts and building peace in many countries, the issue of tolerance has become one of the global issues that receive the attention of global institutions, including global civil society organizations, which have witnessed an expansion in their activities by developments in Information and communication technology, to contribute an effective role in the cause of tolerance in various countries of the world, and is attracting interaction at the level of the international community.

The paper is devoted to terminological, typological and discursive dimension of concepts describing modern conflicts. Historical development of concept “war” is retraced including four generations of warfare. Difficulties in establishing a methodological framework for analyzing the media coverage of military conflicts are analyzed and an interdisciplinary approach to the media coverage of military conflicts is proposed. This enables the integration of different theories - international relations, conflict studies, political communication and journalism. Two dimensions of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict (physical and discursive) are desribed. In the physical dimension, the conflict is localized. The discursive dimension of the conflict is implemented at the global, interstate (Russian-Ukrainian) and local (intra-Ukrainian) levels. Discursive understanding of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict was investigated on local level. The object of analysis was coverage of the conflict in 4 Ukrainian online news portals. The need of new methodological approaches to analysis of the relationship between the media and security issues is emphasized.

The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarised under four headings: 1. From Source to Sea: River systems, from their source to the sea and beyond, should form the focus for research projects, allowing the integration of all archaeological work carried out along their course. Future research should take a holistic view of the marine and maritime historic environment, from inland lakes that feed freshwater river routes, to tidal estuaries and out to the open sea. This view of the landscape/seascape encompasses a very broad range of archaeology and enables connections to be made without the restrictions of geographical or political boundaries. Research strategies, programmes From Source to Sea: ScARF Marine and Maritime Panel Report iii and projects can adopt this approach at multiple levels; from national to site-specific, with the aim of remaining holistic and cross-cutting. 2. Submerged Landscapes: The rising research profile of submerged landscapes has recently been embodied into a European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action; Submerged Prehistoric Archaeology and Landscapes of the Continental Shelf (SPLASHCOS), with exciting proposals for future research. Future work needs to be integrated with wider initiatives such as this on an international scale. Recent projects have begun to demonstrate the research potential for submerged landscapes in and beyond Scotland, as well as the need to collaborate with industrial partners, in order that commercially-created datasets can be accessed and used. More data is required in order to fully model the changing coastline around Scotland and develop predictive models of site survival. Such work is crucial to understanding life in early prehistoric Scotland, and how the earliest communities responded to a changing environment. 3. Marine & Maritime Historic Landscapes: Scotland’s coastal and intertidal zones and maritime hinterland encompass in-shore islands, trans-continental shipping lanes, ports and harbours, and transport infrastructure to intertidal fish-traps, and define understanding and conceptualisation of the liminal zone between the land and the sea. Due to the pervasive nature of the Marine and Maritime historic landscape, a holistic approach should be taken that incorporates evidence from a variety of sources including commercial and research archaeology, local and national societies, off-shore and onshore commercial development; and including studies derived from, but not limited to history, ethnology, cultural studies, folklore and architecture and involving a wide range of recording techniques ranging from photography, laser imaging, and sonar survey through to more orthodox drawn survey and excavation. 4. Collaboration: As is implicit in all the above, multi-disciplinary, collaborative, and cross-sector approaches are essential in order to ensure the capacity to meet the research challenges of the marine and maritime historic environment. There is a need for collaboration across the heritage sector and beyond, into specific areas of industry, science and the arts. Methods of communication amongst the constituent research individuals, institutions and networks should be developed, and dissemination of research results promoted. The formation of research communities, especially virtual centres of excellence, should be encouraged in order to build capacity.

This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU’s (African Union’s) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only “about” data, but which “is” data. According to an article1 by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), “At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge.” Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is “trust” – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. “This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy”, says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect2 project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa)3 project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly)4, have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System5 (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community6 (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high- performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array7 (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs 8 (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/ supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries 9 programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10 ). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.