Academic literature on the topic 'International market potential'

In this study, a research conducted on to investigate countries’ market potentials for Turkish exporters. The main purpose of this research is to examine the factors that can be used in assessment of the market potential. In the research, the potential of international markets was evaluated by factors of ease of trade, market growth, market size and market accessibility. As a result of the research, China, Germany, India, USA and United Kingdom have been ranked as the top market potential for Turkish exporter companies. In addition, countries were divided into six clusters and those with the highest potentials were identified.

Following article describes scoring method for international market from perspective of expansion, based on criteria’s that is widely used in economics and marketing. The idea of the method is estimating international market’s potential by using the criteria system and choosing most suited entering strategy by following an algorithm. Estimation of international market’s perspective contains quantitative data, for analyzing competition environment of sectorial market, possible targeted audience and logistics performance. The method can be used by any organization, regardless of its size or industry specifics, for estimating international’s market potential from perspective of expansion.

The article considers the present state and trends of development of congress industry on the world market of business tourism. Big potential and dynamics of development of Russian congress industry are noted. Peculiarities of attracting congress, exhibition and other events in order to improve the image and present Russian cities and regions on international and domestic markets of business tourism are studied. To promote Russia as a world congressional destination the international cooperation of Russian and international convention bureaus is needed.

PurposeUsing behavioral theory of the firm, the purpose of this paper is to examine how a small firm’s performance relative to historical and social aspirations is related to its international entrepreneurial orientation (IEO). This study also explores two environmental factors, liability of foreignness (LoF) and host-country market potential (HMP), as the moderators for the relationship of performance and IEO.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses survey for data collection from Canadian small firms and employs regression models for data analysis.FindingsThe results show that small firms demonstrate stronger IEO when their performance is below aspirations, but their IEO diminishes when their performance exceeds aspirations. The authors also found that a small firm’s LoF does not moderate the impact of its performance feedback on IEO. However, the authors found HMP plays a moderating role when a small firm’s performance is below aspirations.Originality/valueThis study investigates the relationship of IEO to aspiration and found that this relationship is moderated by HMP. The study advances our knowledge on small firms’ international behavior.

This article substantiates development potentials of international marketing in modern environment. It has been established that, prior to entering foreign markets, companies should determine targets and strategies of their international marketing. It has been determined that commodities, price, promotion, distribution channels should be adapted depending on a country. It is required to apply individual complex of marketing, when producer adapts marketing system to specificity of individual targeted market or niche, bearing supplemental costs but hoping to receive higher profits in the long term. It has been proved that in a certain market segment, companies should position themselves correctly in perception of potential consumers. It has been determined that the development trends of modern international marketing are related with dynamic development of world economy, competitiveness of commodity producers in world market, with internalization and integration of society.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop an evaluation model to determine the relative weights of key factors influencing international market development (IMD) success through analysis network process (ANP) during group decision-making. An empirical case of the Taiwan bulk shipping industry is used to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Design/methodology/approach The literature review is performed to generate 20 key success factors (KSFs) along with four factor categories in IMD (such as organizational capability, environmental scanning, international strategy and internationalization behavior). Then, ANP is applied to develop an evaluation model that prioritizes the relative importance linking the above four factor categories with 20 evaluated KSFs. Findings With respect to the final weights for factor categories, “international strategy” and “environmental scanning” are the two most important criteria, followed by “organizational capability” and “internationalization behavior”. The results also showed that by reviewing the global weights of the 20 KSFs of IMD, “service as competitive advantage”, “market potential” and “risk taking” have the highest rankings. Practical implications The findings indicate that firm expansion into international markets typically depends on a successful international strategy. Hence, to enhance their global market competitiveness, Taiwan bulk shipping firms should focus their efforts on planning international market entry strategy and prioritizing shipping services with high-potential target markets. Originality/value Theoretically, the study results can provide both theoretical basis and empirical evidence, indicating the relative weights and priorities of KSFs of IMD for the Taiwan bulk shipping industry. From the managerial perspective, the analytical results can help managers focus on main factors and identify the best policy to improve their IMD practice and performance.

The aim of the article. The article emphasizes that the transformations taking place in the modern world economy under the influence of accelerating scientific and technological progress, processes of informatization, globalization and regionalization have led to the formation of new approaches and methods of doing business. The results of the analyses. The global world is constantly advancing to the information-innovation era, the network economy, in which most business becomes electronic and is carried out on the Internet on the basis of information and communication technologies (ICT). Complications of foreign economic relations due to the intensification of competition in world markets determine the need to develop new mechanisms to ensure the sustainable development of global e-business. The implementation of the information society development strategy in the world's leading countries (USA, Japan, Germany, etc.) shows that one of such priority tools for the growth of the e-commerce market is its gradual logistics. Conclusions and perspectives for further research. Due to the generalization of modern directions of world development e-logistics market (its further consolidation through a system of mergers and acquisitions; creation of international research and production alliances to develop new software products for e-logistics; rapid growth of the potential of the mobile commerce segment; expanding the scope of commercial services provided to consumers worldwide network) developed and substantiated a system of mechanisms for sustainable development of international and national electronic logistics markets, the basic basis of which is the strategic interaction and interdependence of institutional, innovation and technological, marketing, infrastructure and logistics and financial and economic transformations. This makes it possible to create an analytical basis for assessing the development of its individual segments in terms of effective integration of the country into the global market for electronic logistics. Keywords: world electronic logistics market, mechanisms of e-logistics, structural transformations, sustainable development of e-logistics.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1986.
MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING
Bibliography: leaves 261-266.
by Kab Rae Cho.
M.S.

The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A

Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a relevância da informação contábil, por meio dos principais fatores que afetam o potencial de crescimento das empresas brasileiras não financeiras de capital aberto no período de 2002 a 2012. A proposta é analisar o impacto da variável potencial de crescimento sob a ótica dos investidores, bem como a adoção das normas internacionais de contabilidade no que tange à qualidade das informações produzidas pela contabilidade. Esta análise permite aos investidores otimizar os investimentos em empresas com melhores perspectivas no futuro. Além do benefício aos investidores, conhecer os principais fatores de crescimento contribui para que as empresas direcionem ações de forma a melhorar sua expectativa de crescimento, resultando em maior interesse por parte dos investidores. Para atingir os objetivos propostos, as informações captadas nos demonstrativos contábeis foram confrontadas com as produzidas pelo mercado, bem como comparou-se as informações produzidas antes e após a introdução das normas internacionais de contabilidade. O modelo adotado foi a regressão em painel por permitir verificar com maior eficiência o comportamento das variáveis ao longo do tempo. Os resultados sinalizam que o potencial de crescimento das empresas é melhor mensurado a partir das informações de mercado do que quando medido pelas informações contábeis e que o potencial de crescimento diminui com a adoção das normas internacionais de contabilidade. Também foram identificadas que na visão contábil, endividamento e retorno sobre ativo são as variáveis mestras no impacto do potencial de crescimento, ao passo que na visão de mercado as variáveis influenciadoras são: tamanho, endividamento e retorno sobre o ativo.
The aim of this essay is to verify the relevance of accounting information through the main factors which affect the growth potential of publicly traded non-financial Brazilian companies from 2002 to 2012. The proposal is to analyze the impact of the variable described as growth potential under the investor\'s point of view, as well as check out the impact of adopting international accounting norms in the quality of information produced by accountancy. This analysis allows investors to optimize their investments in companies with a better perspective in the future. Furthermore, knowing the key growth factors, allow companies benefit as they direct their actions to improve their growth expectation, resulting in more interested investors. In order to achieve the goals, the information gathered at the accounting statements were compared to the information produced by the market, and the accounting information produced before and after the introduction of the international accounting norms were compared. The regression in paper model was adopted, in order to allow a more efficient behavior check out of the variables throughout the time. The results show that the companies\' growth potential is better measured from market information than when it is measured through accounting information. And that the growth potential decreased with the introduction of international accounting norms. It was also detected that in accounting view the variables that impact the growth potential are debts and return over investment, and in market view the variables are size, debts and return over assets.

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2014.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 75-80).
Global development has currently become an important business for developers. Although the business involves complex economic, political, and cultural issues, international real estate has been more attractive. Economic and political analysis tells the timing of getting into the market. Demographic analysis indicates if the market would expand and which target developers should focus on. Also, we can find out competitiveness and how to differentiate from other companies. Japan has not showed dramatic economic improvement for 20 years. The mature country has several issues: aging, low birth rate, and natural disasters. On the other hand, Summer Olympics 2020 will be held in Tokyo and the government has decided to dramatically improve the infrastructure. Japan will change and I would like to find out the opportunities and challenges of Japanese real estate. Hawaii market has been influenced by tourism. The market is really unique; the resort area attracts house buyers and renters from all over the world. Most visitors come from the US main land and Japan. Glancing the US and Japanese economy, developers can find out the real estate business opportunities. Vietnam has developed the infrastructure and real estate legal systems. With the new infrastructure development and the assistance of private developers, the country provides more housing. Moreover, the legal system had not allowed foreigners to own properties but has been changed to invite more capital from other countries. I have worked for a Japanese developer and experienced a short period of economic growth but we did not significantly invest and the good economy was over by the financial crisis. Most Japanese developers experienced the bubble economy and were tremendously influenced by that time, becoming more cautious in their outlook. The timing for expanding business now is perhaps not optimal. However, the benefits and challenges in these regions can be well-balanced for global developers who are eager to gain a foothold into international real estate markets.
by Mitsuhiro Nomura.
S.M. in Real Estate Development

Mestrado em Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus
O presente trabalho irá incidir a sua análise no acordo de livre comércio entre a União Europeia ? UE - e o Japão - EU - Japan, Economic Partnership Agreement. Ambas as economias aqui analisadas enfrentam atualmente uma série de novos desafios que surgiram com a alteração do mapa geopolítico, em especial, com o surgimento de potências económicas como a China. Partindo de uma análise sobre as relações históricas, abordamos o foco económico e político de ambos os parceiros, e retiramos conclusões com a análise dos atuais fluxos de comércio da UE para o Japão e das tarifas alfandegárias e não alfandegárias impostas aos bens de países da UE que são exportados para o Japão. Em termos dos cálculos empíricos que efetuámos, recorremos a uma análise das exportações para o Japão da UE a 27 países mais Alemanha, França, Irlanda e Itália no período 2012 a 2017, através da aplicação das seguintes metodologias: (i) Constant Market Share - CMS, que permite a decomposição das exportações dos países em estudo em fatores de competitividade, produto e escala; (ii) Índices de Orientação Geográfica - IOG, e Complementaridade de Comércio - ICC, que permitem medir o potencial de comércio dos países da UE acima referidos para o Japão. Os valores do CMS e dos índices IOG e ICC serão confrontados com uma análise qualitativa das reduções de tarifas alfandegárias e não alfandegárias obtidos com o acordo UE - Japão.
This paper will focus its analysis on the European Union - Japan Free Trade Agreement - EU - Japan, Economic Partnership Agreement. Both economies analyzed here face a currently high number of challenges that have arisen with the alteration of the geopolitical map, in particular, with the emergence of economies such as China. Starting from an analysis of historical relations, economic and political relations, followed by the analysis of the current trade, customs and non-customs tariff flows imposed on EU goods exported to Japan and imposed by the last, we will draw up an overview of pre-agreement relations between parts. This study will analyze the EU (27 countries) and Germany, Italy, France, and Ireland from 2012 to 2017, applying the methodologies: Constant Market Share that allows the decomposition of exports from the study countries into factors. competitiveness, product and scale; secondly, we will use the Geographical Orientation Index and Trade Complementarity Index both to measure the trade potential of the 4 EU countries to Japan. The values of the CMS and the GOI and TCI will, ultimately, allow to compare their results with a qualitative analysis of the customs and non-customs tariff reductions achieved under the EU - Japan agreement.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This diploma thesis is engaging in investing on international stock markets and the main objective was to analyze the profit potential with consideration of possible risks. At first I have characterized international stock market and the theory of effective markets. In the second chapter I was focusing on methods that are used for stock valuations. The third chapter is comparing particular investment strategies that proved to be profitable in a long term. The secondary objective of my diploma thesis was recognition of investment risks, thus the fourth chapter is engaging in market and exchange rate risks. The fifth chapter is focusing on the hedging of exchange rate risk. I was applying obtained theoretical knowledge on a case study about BP company. All the results of the analysis were included in the final investment recommendation. The thoughts of the investment recommendation were then generalized into common investment principles.

The fashion industry has become an industry with high attention, and in recent years Swedish fashion has become a strong name internationally. At the same time, it is a competitive industry where smaller fashion companies are competing with big clothing chains. For these actors it is important to internationalise and enter foreign markets to be able to grow. This requires resources and capital that many of the smaller fashion companies today is missing; market knowledge, export knowledge and commercial knowledge.  This makes it interesting to see what factors are important for smaller Scandinavian fashion companies to succeed in establishing on the international market. The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate and analyze conditions for three smaller Scandinavian fashion companies' internationalisation process. The study is based on case studies of these fashion companies. Theories have been chosen according to the background. These highlights the importance for companies to have knowledge of their market, and how internationalisation is a process of knowledge in which they learn something from each step. Furthermore, how companies in some cases follow a particular pattern and how the establishment can be done in specific steps. It may be important to develop relations with actors in their environment.  By different theories, the authors have designed an assumption about what is important for the smaller fashion companies.  In the dissertation we have found that the most significant and important factors are collaborations, available resources internally or externally, and to have knowledge of the market. The expansion of the business as a foreign establishment means that companies need to seek help outside their organization to succeed internationally.

Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2006.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-59).
Donor grants and soft loans have been utilized by many microfinance institutions (MFIs) to support their operations. However, such grants and loans, already of limited size and availability, are becoming harder to access as the pool of global MFIs grows. Another option for MFIs is tapping international capital markets, international loan and security markets, but there are many barriers to this practice. This paper studies how MFIs and the poor who are seeking capital to foster their entrepreneurial spirits can overcome these barriers to access international capital markets and meet the growing micro finance demand. First, this paper establishes the degree of linkage between MFIs and international financial markets by reviewing the present funding condition of MFIs. It concludes that purely commercially based funding from capital markets is minimal except for some of the best managed MFIs. A huge gap exists between most other MFIs and international capital markets. Second, this palper studies the microfinance investment potential by analyzing the returns of one microfinance investment fund. It concludes that the profile of microfinance investment matches the needs of investors in capital markets.
(cont.) Investors in developed countries are always looking for investment products that mitigate their portfolio volatility. This paper verifies that microfinance has an attractive profile matching these needs, and offering stable return, as well as low correlation with stocks, bonds and macroeconomic factors. Capital market investors and microfinance have the potential to build win-win relationships. One of the remaining challenges of MFIs is generating required return commensurate with risks. Third, this paper proposes securitization in a microfinance global pool as a means to overcome the barriers to connecting MFIs and the poor to capital markets. In this securitization scheme, the global pool buys microcredits from MFIs, thereby 1) increasing return, 2) enabling many MFIs to obtain funds from capital markets by sharing fixed costs of funding, 3) reducing exchange rate and geographic concentration risks, and 4) creating secondary markets and liquidity. Some challenges to securitization still need to be overcome. Nevertheless, this paper demonstrates that; securitization in the microfinance global pool will be an effective means to bridge the gap between capital markets and MFIs and the poor.
by Daisuke Ueno.
M.B.A.

Abstract Because of the long-standing Canada-United States lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and enable readers to easily construct their own models to analyze policy questions, whether in forestry or another sector. Examples in the book illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one naton on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world.

In modern conditions, an integrated quality management system (ISMC) that meets the requirements of several international standards and contributes to improving the efficiency of enterprise management, creating conditions for its sustainable development, as well as the competitiveness of the enterprise and its products is becoming more and more popular. The monograph considers theoretical and methodological approaches to quality management at the enterprise. The relevance of the application of an integrated quality management system, including at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex (MIC), consisting in the most effective management of the enterprise, energy efficiency and resource conservation, is justified. The assessment of the use of quality management tools at the defense industry enterprises was carried out, the trends in the development of defense industry enterprises were substantiated, a marketing approach was applied to the classification of defense industry enterprises, in particular by market type, which allows identifying potential consumers of enterprises ' products, the degree of production diversification. Organizational and economic approaches to the formation of an integrated quality management system are presented. The procedure for creating an ISMC is considered. The methodology and criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of ISMC are substantiated. The presented material is of practical importance and can be useful to specialists in quality management, graduate students, researchers, teachers.

AbstractThe European Pillar of Social Rights is about delivering new and more effective rights for Europeans. It builds upon 20 key principles, structured around three categories: equal opportunities and access to the labour market; fair working conditions; and social protection and inclusion. Directly relevant to older people, the Pillar has the potential to address the multidimensionality of exclusion in later life from a rights-based perspective – for example, by enhancing the rights to quality and affordable health and long-term care, to adequate pensions to live in dignity, to age-friendly working conditions and an inclusive labour market, or to access goods and services. Despite these valuable elements, there remains significant uncertainly around how the Pillar will achieve this and what kind of implemental actions might emerge across member states. This chapter analyses the potential of the European Pillar to address social exclusion of older people in Europe, the challenges that might impede its efforts, and the measures necessary to overcome such challenges.

AbstractThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region plays a vital role in shaping the global energy markets because of its substantial amount of hydrocarbons resources. Although the GCC has abundant hydrocarbon resources, countries in the region have also shown their commitment and intent to become the global leaders in alternate energy, especially, renewable energy through their “Visions and Laws”. Further, All the countries in the Middle East have also set targets for the deployment of renewable energy at the federal or local level.For several decades, there has been steady economic and population growth of the Middle East countries, with most of the region’s wealth and socio-economic development, tied to its substantial oil and gas resources. Renewable energy can provide an alternative to their energy landscape, which holds a vast potential to cut fuel costs, reduce GHG emissions.To promote renewable energy, in the last five years, renewable energy has gained a lot of interest in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Low tariffs bids for renewable energy generation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia since 2016 have made renewable energy, especially solar power competitive with conventional energy (International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Market Analysis-GCC 2019. s.l.: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019).With the push from the decision-makers to reduce the risk of dependence fossil fuels, the renewable energy plans can be implemented in the GCC. Decision-makers in the GCC have recognized the need for a plan for the post-oil era. This chapter will explore the GCC long term policies and government’s role in shaping the renewable energy market. Further, the chapter will also explore the challenges & opportunities related to the renewable energy sector in GCC (International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Market Analysis-GCC 2019. s.l.: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019).

AbstractDigitalization has tremendously challenged how international opportunities are created and captured. Inspired by researches in the field of both entrepreneurship and international business, this study provides a comprehensive framework toward the impact of digital technologies (DTs) on opportunity pursuit in foreign markets. We identify two perspectives of DTs, i.e., DTs as ‘driving force’ and DTs as ‘disrupting force,’ which characterize DTs as a catalyst of experiential knowledge acquisition, and as a factor altering the relative significance of experiential knowledge to opportunity pursuit, respectively. By bridging these two perspectives with the notion of market-specific knowledge and general knowledge within internationalization process theory, some arguments with regard to what specific influences DTs play on international opportunity pursuit are further introduced. We hope this study can potentially offer some nuances to both practitioners as well as the research in the interaction of digitalization and international opportunity.

AbstractDespite its modest position on the international stage, Canada has been able to leverage significant influence in matters of global health. The country’s global health leadership draws on its strengths as a staunch participant in multilateral activities, a large funder of global health initiatives, a defender of a rule-based international order, and an active promoter of human rights, health equity, and global citizenship. These sources of strength, though, are being undermined by ongoing challenges to and recent deviations from the country’s traditional commitment to global health. Canada recently shifted its funding for global health initiatives away from its multilateral partnerships, recent actions have violated international law, findings from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission reveal how Canada’s Indigenous peoples still face many health disparities at home, and some Canadian businesses continue to operate in foreign markets with questionable human rights practices. While there are many reasons to celebrate Canadian contributions to global health, there is also much that can be improved. If Canada wants to harness its potential as a global health leader, it should focus on consolidating the sources of its strength, which will give it greater influence in matters of global health.

AbstractThe article explores the relationship between tort law and human rights. It explains the potential inherent in holding corporations liable in tort for human rights violations along the supply chain, such as the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh. On a theoretical level, it devises a legal framework of tort liability that is optimal from the standpoint of social welfare. Such an optimal liability system would make manufacturers internalise the full cost of production, including harm caused to workers, third parties and the environment. In contrast, the present global liability situation is characterised by legal fragmentation and enforcement deficits. These factors provide the explanation for the large-scale externalisation of production risks we witness today, leading to an inflated global demand. In principle, tort law is well suited to offer a remedy, as the interests protected by human rights and national tort law broadly overlap. Furthermore, the duty of care which is the core requirement for shifting losses to others via tort law is a flexible concept that may even be stretched to accommodate cross-border human rights policies. The new French “devoir de vigilance,” or human rights due diligence, as well the UK Supreme Court’s recent jurisprudence, aim to tap this potential. On the other hand, the article raises doubt in relation to the adverse economic incentives and market shifts if such duties are imposed selectively, i.e. only in some jurisdictions, but not in others. After all, private international law often stands in the way of a global application of national tort law. Finally, alternative mechanisms of enforcement are assessed and examined with a view to their comparative effectiveness. This analysis casts doubt on the usefulness of tort law as a means to further the human rights cause.

This rapid review synthesises evidence on the current size of the digital market, the countries promoting development of digital business and their approach through Trade Policies or Incentive Frameworks, and the current and potential size of the market with the UK / China / US / other significant countries. It draws on a variety of sources, including reports by international organisations (such as the World Bank and OECD), grey literature produced by think tanks and the private sector, and peer reviewed academic papers. A high proportion of estimates of the size of the digital economy come from research conducted by or for corporations and industry bodies, such as Google and the GSMA (which represents the telecommunications industry). Their research may be influenced by their business interests, the methodologies and data sources they utilise are often opaque, and the information required to critically assess findings is sometimes missing. Given this, the estimates presented in this review are best seen as ballpark figures rather than precise measurements. A limitation of this rapid evidence review stems from the lack of consistent methodologies for estimating the size of the digital economy. The OECD is attempting to develop a standard approach to measuring the digital economy across the national accounts of the G20, but this has not yet been finalised. This makes comparing the results of different studies very challenging. The problem is particularly stark in low income countries, where there are frequently huge gaps in the relevant data.

The Computerized Delivery Sequence (CDS) file contains listings for nearly all addresses in the United States. Survey researchers use the CDS as a sampling frame from which to draw an address-based sample (ABS). More than 700,000 addresses on the CDS are marked as drop points, which are mail receptacles shared by multiple housing units (drop units). Drop points are a challenge to sample and present a potential source of error because of their "one-to-many" relationships. Several techniques have been developed to overcome this challenge, including deleting them from the frame or sampling all units at a given drop point. This paper serves as an introduction to these challenges, discusses the pros and cons to each "solution," and provides a list of best practices.

This paper summarizes recent evidence on the effects of migration on a variety of outcomes including labor markets, education, health, crime and prejudice, international trade, assimilation, family separation, diaspora networks, and return migration. Given the lack of studies looking at migration flows between developing countries, this paper contributes to fill a gap in the literature by providing evidence of the impact of South - South migration in general and for the Latin American countries in particular. The evidence highlighted in this summary provides useful insights for designing policies to leverage the developmental outcomes of migration while limiting its potential negative effects.

This year marks an historic chapter in the story of international aid. On 24 October 2020, it will be 50 years since high-income countries committed to spending 0.7% of their gross national income (GNI) on aid to low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines how aid has helped to improve the wellbeing of people in low- and middle-income countries. It discusses how donors’ broken promises on the 0.7% target have limited the potential of aid to reduce poverty and inequality. Oxfam has calculated that in the 50 years since the 0.7% promise was made, high-income countries have failed to deliver a total of $5.7 trillion in aid. Finally, this paper reflects on the future of aid.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor