Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'International market choice'

The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A

It is estimated that by 2025 there will be approximately 8.26 million students enrolled in over 15,000 international schools globally. This increased expansion of international schooling cannot be disconnected from a process of globalisation where neoliberal policies have influenced the growth of education markets. International schooling arrives as a welcomed option to students and families looking for alternatives to national programmes which are perceived to be rigid and unchanging in a new globalised economy. With enrolment rates increasing over twenty percent in the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East regions, the International Baccalaureate Organisation is perhaps the fastest growing educational group offering international schooling around the globe.  In this qualitative comparative case study, fourteen students enrolled in the International Baccalaureate Diploma Programme (IBDP) across four schools were asked about their experiences in the process of school choice in the Swedish education market. Semi-structured interviews were employed to explore student’s motivations and strategies in choosing the IBDP over national programmes. Utilising a grounded theory methodology linked with Bourdieu’s theories on symbolic capital, the study attempts to understand student’s choice behaviours. Findings revealed that regardless of social or educational background, students share similar motivations and strategies for choice making. Further analysis demonstrated that a collective perception of the IB alongside similar ideals of self-identity and class influence and legitimise their choice behaviours. The implication of these findings demonstrate that choice behaviours in the Swedish education market work to establish a degree of social reproduction and differentiation.
Det beräknas att år 2025 kommer cirka 8,26 miljoner elever att gå i över 15 000 internationella skolor globalt. Denna ökade expansion av internationell skolgång kan inte separeras från en globaliseringsprocess där neoliberal politik har påverkat tillväxten på skolmarknaden. Internationell skolgång framstår som ett möjlighet för studenter och familjer som söker alternativ till nationella program, som uppfattas vara oföränderliga i en ny globaliserad ekonomi. När antalet inskrivna ökar med över tjugo procent i Amerika, Asien och Stillahavs-området, Afrika, Europa och Mellanöstern, är Internationella Baccalaureatorganisationen kanske den snabbast växande utbildningsgruppen som erbjuder internationell skolgång runt om i världen.  I denna kvalitativa jämförande fallstudie utfrågades fjorton elever i IB-programmet (Internationella Baccalaureat, IBDP) vid fyra skolor om sina erfarenheter av skolvalet på den svenska gymnasieskolmarknaden. Semi-strukturerade intervjuer användes för att undersöka studenternas strategier och motivation för att välja IBDP framför nationella program. Med hjälp av metod byggd på grundad teori (grounded theory), kopplad till Bourdieus begrepp symboliskt kapital försöker studien förstå elevernas strategier vid gymnasievalet. Resultaten visade att oavsett social eller pedagogisk bakgrund delar eleverna likartad motivation och likartade strategier vid skolvalet. Ytterligare analys visade att en kollektiv föreställning om IB tillsammans med liknande ideal beträffande självidentitet och klass påverkar och legitimerar deras val. Implikationen av dessa resultat visar att valbeteenden på den svenska skolmarknaden bidrar till viss del till en social reproduktion.

The overall aim of this study is to describe and analyse some of the consequences of market forces and decentralisation in the educational systems of Sweden and England.

Since the 1980s, many countries have restructured their educational systems and introduced decentralisation and market forces. The reasons have sometimes been the same and sometimes they have differed, but demands for better school performance and the need for economic cuttings in the public sector, including schooling, are two of the most common reasons. This study will describe the development towards market forces and decentralisation in some countries in the western world in general, and, in particular Sweden and England.

The thesis makes a general overview of research on these issues in different countries and focuses on certain key concepts. Interviews and document analyses are the principal methods used, and case studies have been conducted in seven secondary schools in one Swedish municipality, and in ten schools in an English county. Interviews were made with 20 school leaders in the Swedish municipality and 20 in the English community in order to study their opinions on market solutions like competition and choice of school, as well as decentralisation and local management of schools.

The findings indicate that the educational systems of Sweden and England differ in many aspects, even if both can be described as decentralised. While the Swedish system gives the schools a high degree of autonomy, whereby the school leaders are responsible for almost everything in the daily running of the school, the English system includes more aspects of centralism, and provides less local decision making. The findings also indicate that the school leaders in Swedish municipalities are more satisfied with both decentralisation and market forces in schooling than their English colleagues. Several plausible interpretations could be made of the interview answers from the school leaders, but it seems that the higher degree of decentralisation in the Swedish educational system is perhaps the most important factor in this case.

Finally, the findings also indicate that the school leaders see positive aspects of choice and competition in schooling, like increased quality and better efficiency, as well as negative aspects, primarily the risk of segregation due to free school choice.

Abstract Thesis title: The selection of entry mode when penetrating a foreign market Author: Annica Gunnarsson  Tutor: Åsa Devine Course: Marketing, advanced level, spring term 2011, Linnaeus University   Entering a new market is always a risky business, with a big potential of failure. To research the options of entry strategy can help in determine which strategy to use. The international market of education has changed during the last years, and in Sweden we just had one big change when the introduction of tutoring fees was determined. This has forced the universities out on unfamiliar territory.  This new territory consists of competing on a much bigger market than before and the need to develop a new international marketing strategy has occurred. The research on entry modes from a manufacturing perspective is extensive and therefore this research deals with the entry modes from a service perspective. The aim of this study is to gain better understanding of the selection of entry modes from a service institutes perspective. Furthermore the research is limited to investigating the education sector and how they use entry mode when wanting to establish them on a new market. The research is done through seven different interviews. The universities are located both in Sweden and abroad. This method where chosen because the goal is to find out how the universities is enter new markets.    The findings are based on the factors that determined international marketing strategy and how the respondents have answered the questions. How the universities work with the changes they experience is also a factor in the decision making process on which international strategy to use. The main findings of the study are that the entry mode education institutes most often use is some sort of international joint venture.

This research aims towards gaining a deeper understanding in how a manager’s previous experience influence which foreign entry mode chosen by a Swedish SME, where the manager acts as the decision-maker. Interviews were held with managers from different Swedish firms in order to collect empirical data that thereafter were analysed. In order to get a deeper understanding as to how the experience influenced the choice of entry mode, a qualitative research were implicated. The theory is based upon a conceptual framework where the managers previous experience is divided into educational background, international experience and position tenure. Furthermore, the conceptual framework includes the Uppsala Model, which the thesis is based upon, and entry modes as this is where focus lays. From the conceptual framework, the empirical findings and analysis is structured as a combined chapter. Based on the theory, empirical findings and analysis, a conclusion is presented, with the aim of answering the research question and also to fill the research gap regarding how a manager’s previous experience influence the choice of entry mode for Swedish SMEs. That a manager’s previous experience influenced was understood, however, that international experience influenced the choice to a higher extent is presented. An additional main implication is how the manager could be placed in line with the Uppsala Model, where the choice of entry modes can vary and incrementally shift to another entry mode as a manager gain experiential knowledge.

This thesis is a theoretical and empirical examination of the developmentof bioethanol markets since 2005 when sustainability regulations forbiofuels were introduced globally. The experiences of Brazil and Sweden,and the influence of European regulations on the development ofbioethanol markets receive special attention. The work is based onprimary and secondary data sources gathered between 2009 and 2014,including interviews, field research, data from public and private sources,as well as an extensive literature review. The thesis uses case examples ofcountries that have adopted bioethanol as a transport fuel, such as Braziland Sweden.The research is structured using a bottom-up approach, and addressesthree specific angles of the complex issue of how bioethanol marketshave developed under sustainability requirements.The first part introduces an economic sustainability view of ethanol. Thecharacteristics of bioethanol fuel are presented together with conceptsand a theoretical framework for analysing biofuel sustainability. Policytools are also discussed, particularly those used to introduce fuel ethanolin the transport sector. The discussion is centred on the competitionbetween ethanol and gasoline, considering the hypothesis that consumersare sensitive to prices and tend to choose fuels based on their cost-perenergyunit. The analysis is supported by the case examples of Brazil andSweden, with special focus on the delicate balance between fueleconomies of bioethanol and gasoline systems in the face of differentways oil products are priced in those countries. Findings show thatdrivers tend to choose between bioethanol (E85/E100) or gasoline (E5-E25) depending on the relative prices between the two fuels. Theresearch results suggest that different pricing strategies for bioethanoland gasoline affect how consumers perceive the attractiveness of eachfuel. The examples of E100 in Brazil and E85 in Sweden provide insightson the elastic consumer behaviour that new markets may experience,serving to guide strategies in different contexts.The second part of this work bridges experiences in national contextswith the recent trend for biofuel sustainability regulation in internationalmarkets. Based on the hypothesis that the ethanol industry is responsiveto sustainability regulations, an examination of the development of theiiBrazilian bioethanol industry is carried out. This provides a comparisonframework drawing patterns between the industry's reaction to nationalregulations (past) and international regulations (recent). For this purpose,a comparison between the European sustainability requirements forethanol and the industry’s status quo is explored. Findings show that theEU sustainability criteria for biofuels are likely to have three effects onthe bioethanol industry: (i) compliance through incrementalimprovements in sustainability practices and certification; (ii) riskdiversification by engaging in multi-output production models; and (iii)market leakage towards less-regulated markets.The third part of the thesis brings together the first two parts. Itexamines how in a fuel competition context, the incorporation of costsrelated to sustainability certification can change the attractiveness ofhigh-bioethanol blends for consumers. The model of sustainabilityadopted by major international markets is based on regulations enforcedby mandatory certification. As biofuel market share increased, producerswere faced with costs for sustainability certification in order to obtainmarket access. While it was expected that ‘sustainably’ produced biofuelswould be rewarded with higher prices in the EU, this work found thatprice premiums for ethanol have in general been very small or inexistent,with certified fuels becoming the new norm in the market. New costsbrought into the market through sustainability certification can make itdifficult to balance between national policies heavily reliant on consumerchoice between fuels (and associated price-elasticities), and thedeployment of high blends of ethanol, such as E100 and E85.By analysing the three aspects (consumer behaviour and marketdynamics for ethanol in Brazil and Sweden, the introduction ofsustainability criteria for biofuels, and the implications of sustainabilityfor consumer choice between fuels) this work seeks to increaseunderstanding of the highly complex issue of biofuel market formationin the face of sustainability requirements. The key finding is thatsustainability certification has a cost, which needs to be orchestrated withother sectors of the economy to achieve the desired objectives. Thisthesis suggests that crucial areas of economic and environmentalsustainability have been often dealt with separately in biofuelpolicymaking, which has created weaknesses that deserve attention infuture policy efforts in order to improve biofuel systems.

QC 20150401

This study analyzes corporate governance practices of foreign (non-U.S.) issuers listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. Specifically, I examine the extent to which these foreign issuers voluntarily comply with U.S. stock exchange corporate governance requirements applicable to domestic issuers. My sample consists of 201 foreign companies primarily domiciled in Brazil, China, Israel, and the United Kingdom. I find that 151 (75 per cent) of the sample firms do not elect to comply with any of the U.S. corporate governance requirements. Logistic regression analysis generally supports the hypotheses that conformance with U.S. GAAP and percentage of managerial ownership are positively associated, and that percentage ownership by major shareholders is negatively associated with foreign firms electing to comply with U.S. corporate governance rules. This evidence is relevant for regulators and investors.

碩士
長榮大學
經營管理研究所
93
This research mainly discusses the factors that would influence the Taiwan chain-store industry as it is chooses the international market entry mode. The development of the chain-store industry is deeply influenced by the United States and Japan. Because the skills and techniques in managing a chain-store could be easily imitated, the Taiwan chain-store industry is expected to experience a leaping progress. At present, the chain-store industry in Taiwan has already entered the maturity stage. Many entrepreneurs are already exploring possibilities of expanding overseas. In the initial reviewing of related literature, the researcher discovered that the chain-store industry is still at the margins in terms of the international market. Another discovery made was that the local studies made on entry modes are mostly focused on the production industry. There are but a few studies that discuss the entry mode for the chain-store industry. Thus, this research was conceptualized. The development of international market entry mode theories is quite multiple. Some theories are made from the economic perspective, while others are made from the management angle. This research uses eclectic theory as its foundation. It uses the structures of Hill and other scholars as reference. The structure of this research uses both the economic and managerial phases, and is currently believed to be a theory that could better explain the choices of entry modes. Thus, this research studies strategic variables, environmental variables, transaction variables and the effects of internationalized motives on the choice of entry mode. In terms of the statistical analysis method, the research uses logistic regression models, mainly because this method can analyze different kinds of dependent variables. The research discovered that in terms of strategic variables, multi-domestic strategies and global strategies could influence the choice of entry mode. In the aspect of environmental variables, the national risks and domestic market competition influence the choice of entry mode. In terms of transaction variables, research shows that the uniqueness and tacit of know-how would influence the choice of entry mode. In the aspect of internationalized motives, only the imports of skills and techniques seem to influence the choice of entry mode.

碩士
國立中正大學
企業管理研究所
103
Business groups go international because of competition from the world. Review past studies about the international location choices, a few scholars have noticed why some business groups are willing to go to the country with long distance and high risks. Besides, the studies about the market distance are focus on the result of running business on the long distance locations. A few studies investigate why managers decide to enter the long distance locations. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the reason making business groups in Taiwan to invest the long distance market and to fill the gap between the choices of overseas markets and market distance. This study was based on data collected from China Credit Information Service top 300 business groups. The sample was tested hypotheses by using longitudinal data(2006-2012) from 101 group companies. Independent variables include industry environment, behavioral theory of the firm and managers characteristics to investigate why business groups go investing the overseas markets with high geographical distance, cultural distance or institutional distance. Moreover, this study uses diversification experience as moderating variable and finds the relationship between diversification experience and industry environments. The result indicate: (1)The environment complexity present a negative relationship with investing high geographical distance and cultural distance. (2)The environment dynamism present a negative relationship with investing high geographical distance and cultural distance. (3)The slack of business groups present a positive relationship with investing high geographical distance, cultural distance and institutional distance. (4)The key character of the business groups is family member presenting the positive relationship with investing high geographical distance, cultural distance and institutional distance. (5) Diversification experience enforces the negative relationship between environment complexity and high geographical distance, cultural distance and institutional distance market.

碩士
中國文化大學
企業實務管理數位碩士在職專班
107
Environmental changes and climate anomalies have accelerated the development of green energy industry, governments around the globe have listed electric vehicle as key development item. In recent years, lithium battery explosions have frequently occurred, hence lithium battery safety has become an important technical indicator for the development of electric vehicle. At present, there is no lithium battery material and technology that can balance battery performance, lifespan and safety. In 2004, Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan began to invest in STOBA technology for high-safety lithium-ion battery materials. This technology will not sacrifice the performance of lithium batteries, and can greatly improve the lifespan of lithium batteries and the number of cycles. The most important thing is to make lithium batteries not causing fire, burning or explosion due to out of control thermal heat, and solve the safety problem of lithium batteries. The technology is awarded R&D 100 distinction in 2009 and 2017, leading the world in this field. This study analyzes and explores the international market strategy and competitiveness of the high-safety lithium-ion battery material, STOBA, developed by Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan. This paper employs secondary data, resource-based theory, eclectic theory, transaction costs, and international market entry strategies to conduct analysis. The research structure is divided into three aspects: vendor advantage, regional factor and transaction cost, to find out the best mode for entering China market for the company in study. This study uses qualitative semi-structured interviews as research method and the research scope covers electric vehicle-related industries in Taiwan and China, and conduct semi-structured interviews with the in-service personnel in related fields, the interviews were conducted between December of 2018 to April of 2019. The information gathered through data collection and expert interviews was classified, compared and analyzed to obtain the results of this study.

by Lye, Eugene, Ma Chun Fu, Siu Pui Pui.
Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 133-134).
Questionnaires in Chinese.
ABSTRACT --- p.ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii
LIST OF TABLES & FIGURES --- p.vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.viii
CHAPTER
Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Emerging market --- p.1
Issues --- p.2
Chapter II. --- THE COMPANY --- p.4
History --- p.4
Management Structure --- p.5
Board of Directors --- p.5
Innovation & Growth --- p.8
Diversification --- p.11
Global Expansion --- p.12
Organizational Structure --- p.14
Products --- p.15
Quality Control --- p.15
Financial Information --- p.16
Chapter III. --- SWOT ANALYSIS --- p.18
Strengths --- p.18
Weaknesses --- p.18
Opportunities --- p.19
Threats --- p.19
Chapter IV. --- MARKETING STRATEGY IN THE PRC --- p.21
Product Offering --- p.21
Product Positioning --- p.22
Packaging Strategy --- p.23
Distribution Strategy --- p.23
Pricing Strategy --- p.24
Promotion Strategy --- p.24
Chapter V. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.26
The Branding Revolution in China --- p.26
Beverage Brand Study --- p.29
Categories of Beverage Consumers --- p.31
Intention of Brand Equity --- p.32
Extension of Brand Equity --- p.33
Summary of Findings --- p.34
A Case Study of New Brand Launch --- p.35
Chapter VI. --- MARKET OVERVIEW OF CHINA BEVERAGE MARKET --- p.39
Market Size --- p.40
Consumer Behaviors --- p.41
The Dairy Product Market --- p.42
Overview --- p.42
The Customers --- p.43
The Industry --- p.43
The Juice Market --- p.44
Overview --- p.44
The Customers --- p.44
The Industry --- p.45
The Soybean Milk Market --- p.45
Overview --- p.45
The Customers --- p.46
The Industry --- p.46
Chapter VII. --- THE BEVERAGE MARKET IN GUANGZHOU --- p.48
Yogurt Drink Market in Guangzhou --- p.48
Product Usage and Packaging --- p.48
Consumer Psychology --- p.48
Competitive Information --- p.49
Packaged Milk Market in Guangzhou --- p.50
Product Usage --- p.50
Consumer Psychology --- p.50
Competitive Information: --- p.51
Juice Market in Guangzhou --- p.51
Product Usage and Packaging --- p.51
Consumer Psychology --- p.52
Competitive Information --- p.52
Soybean Milk Market in Guangzhou --- p.53
Product Usage and Package --- p.53
Consumer Psychology --- p.53
Competitive Information --- p.53
Chapter VIII. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.54
Research Objective --- p.54
Research Methodology for Focus Group --- p.54
Research Methodology for Survey --- p.55
Limitations & Constraints --- p.57
Chapter IX. --- FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS --- p.59
Focus Group Research Findings & Analysis --- p.59
Survey Findings & Analysis --- p.65
Analysis of Brand Recognition --- p.67
Analysis of Brand Extension & Association --- p.68
Analysis of Attributes for Children Beverages --- p.70
Analysis of Packaging Issues --- p.71
Analysis of Toys Placement --- p.78
Analysis of Taste Preference --- p.79
Analysis of Brand Preference --- p.80
Analysis of 19-25 year old Female Segment --- p.83
Chapter X. --- RECOMMENDATIONS --- p.85
Strengths --- p.85
Weaknesses --- p.87
Opportunities --- p.90
Threats --- p.93
APPENDIX --- p.98
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.133

No
Sampling in the international environment needs to satisfy the same requirements as sampling in the domestic environment, but there are additional issues to consider, such as the need to balance within-country representativeness with cross-national comparability. However, most international marketing research studies fail to provide theoretical justification for their choice of sampling approach. This is because research design theory and sampling theory have not been well integrated in the context of international research. This paper seeks to fill the gap by developing a framework for determining a sampling approach in international studies. The framework is based on an assessment of the way in which sampling affects the validity of research results, and shows how different research objectives impact upon (a) the desired sampling method and (b) the desired sample characteristics. The aim is to provide researchers with operational guidance in choosing a sampling approach that is theoretically appropriate to their particular research aims.

No
A study of key decision makers in a sample of large international companies explored the non-domestic market entry decision. A literature review revealed five broad external domains which held the potential to affect that decision. A series of statements was factor analysed to reveal ten more specific variables. An analysis of which variables discriminated between the decision to enter and not enter a new non-domestic market demonstrated that geocultural/political similarity, developed economy, attractive market, good market information and governmental attitude significantly affected the decision. The findings supported a marketing-strategy based theory of market entry.

The current environment experienced within the various industries is characterized by globalization, competitiveness and high demand. These days it is extremely important for a firm to have the ability to adapt and it is also important its effectiveness in doing so. For an organization to tackle these challenges it is fundamental to see internationalization as a competitive advantage. Therefore, and to be effective in the process of entering in new markets, the decision-making and influence at management level can dictate the success of the organization. Hence, the aim of this work is to explore a firm’s process of entry into new international markets as well as the management influence power in decision-making and choice of these same new markets. The theme of the dissertation was explored through a case study of a Portuguese family business with productive activity in the automotive industry: MCG-Mind for Metal. The case study was developed through interviews with the general director of MCG and the directors of the main functional areas of the automotive sector as well as through direct observation and documentation. It was concluded that the strongest influence in decision process regarding new markets happens in the strategic phase of the process. This happens due to an homogeneity in the management team where the managers influence is going for more comfortable and less risky options. This influence in decision is mainly because of the emotional fear factor of going to diferent and not so mature market.
O ambiente atual vivido no seio das mais diversas indústrias caracteriza-se pela globalização, alta competitividade e exigência. Nos dias de hoje é extremamente importante a capacidade de adaptação de uma empresa e a sua eficácia ao fazê-lo. Para que uma organização faça face a estes desafios torna-se fundamental a internacionalização enquanto vantagem competitiva, como tal para que haja eficácia neste processo a tomada de decisão e a influência ao nível da gestão pode ditar o sucesso da organização. Assim sendo, o objectivo desta dissertação é explorar o processo de entrada de uma empresa em novos mercados internacionais como também o poder de influência da gestão no processo de decisão e escolha destes mesmos novos mercados. Para explorar o tema a dissertação explora o caso de estudo de uma empresa familiar Portuguesa com atividade produtiva na indústria automóvel, a MCG-Mind for Metal. O caso de estudo foi desenvolvido através de entrevistas com o diretor geral da MCG e com os diretores das áreas funcionais do sector automóvel da empresa bem como por observação direta e documentação. Concluiu-se que a influência mais forte no processo de decisão sobre novos mercados acontece na fase estratégica do processo. Isto acontece devido a uma homogeneidade na equipa de gestão onde a influência dos gestores é a escolha de opções mais confortáveis e menos arriscadas. Esta influência na decisão é principalmente por causa do factor emocional medo de explorar diferentes mercados que podem não ser tão maduros.

Widespread cross-border securities trading have led to the internationalization of securities markets. No one seriously disputes that such securities dealings require regulation, but there is no academic consensus on the best normative approach to such regulation. The academic debate initially focused on whether regulatory competition or cooperation constitutes the better model. However, the debate seems to have evolved to adopt a hybrid model combining the virtues of these two approaches. ‘Harmonization’ constitutes the dominant hybrid model. Nevertheless, the implementation of the harmonization model has barely received any attention in the literature. The aim of this thesis is hence two-fold: first, justify why harmonization should be the preferred model for the regulation of international securities markets; and second, develop, applying an international trade regulation perspective, a regulatory framework to implement the harmonization model using the World Trade Organization and General Agreement on Trade in Services (WTO/GATS) framework.

This thesis brings new evidence on different strands of the literature in macro-finance, international economics and macroeconometrics. The first two chapters combine both theoretical models and empirical techniques to deepen the analysis of important economic phenomena such as the effects of economic policy uncertainty on financial markets, and convergence between emerging market economies and advanced economies on these markets. The third chapter of the thesis, which is co-authored with Hafedh Bouakez, contributes to the literature on the identification of news shocks about future productivity. In the first chapter, I study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty on nominal U.S. government bond yields and premiums. I use a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model featuring recursive preferences, and both real and nominal rigidities. Policy uncertainty in the DSGE model is defined as a mean-preserving spread of the policy shock distributions. My results show that: (i) When the economy is subject to unpredictable shocks to the volatility of policy instruments, the level of the median yield curve is lower, its slope increases and risk premiums decrease relative to an economy with no stochastic volatility. This negative effect on the level of yields and premiums is due to the asymmetric impact of positive versus negative shocks; (ii) A typical policy risk shock increases yields at all maturities. This is because the fall in yields triggered by higher demand for bonds by households, in order to hedge against higher predicted consumption volatility, is outweighed by the increase in yields due to higher inflation risk premiums. Finally, I use several empirical measures economic policy uncertainty in a structural VAR model to show that the above effects of policy risk shocks on yields are consistent empirical evidence. Chapter 2 looks at the market for government bonds in 12 advanced economies and 8 emerging market economies, during the period 1999-2012, and consider the question of whether or not there has been any convergence of risk between emerging market and advanced economies. I distinguish between default risk and other types of risk, such as inflation, liquidity and exchange rate risk. I make the theoretical case that forward risk premium differentials can be used to distinguish default risk and other risks. I then construct forward risk premium differentials and use these to make the empirical case that there has been little convergence associated with the other types of risk. I also show that differences in countries' macroeconomic fundamentals and political risk play an important role in explaining the large "non-default" risk differentials observed between emerging and advanced economies. Chapter 3 proposes a novel strategy to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, which leads to results that are consistent with the predictions of conventional new-Keynesian models. It shows that the failure of many empirical studies to generate consistent responses to these shocks is due to impurities in the available TFP series, which lead to an incorrect identification of unanticipated technology shocks---whose estimated effects are inconsistent with the interpretation of these disturbances as supply shocks. This, in turn, contaminates the identification of news shocks. My co-author, Hafedh Bouakez, and I propose an agnostic identification strategy that allows TFP to be affected by both technological and non-technological shocks, and identifies unanticipated technology shocks via sign restrictions on the response of inflation. The results show that the effects of both surprise TFP shocks and news shocks are generally consistent with the predictions of standard new-Keynesian models. In particular, the inflation puzzle documented in previous studies vanishes under the novel empirical strategy.
Cette thèse présente de nouveaux résultats sur différentes branches de la littérature en macro-finance, économie internationale et macro-économétrie. Les deux premiers chapitres combinent des modèles théoriques et des techniques empiriques pour approfondir l’étude de phénomènes économiques importants tels que les effets de l’incertitude liée aux politiques économiques sur les marchés financiers et la convergence entre les pays émergents et les pays avancés sur ces marchés. Le troisième chapitre, qui est le fruit d’une collaboration avec Hafedh Bouakez, contribue à la littérature sur l’identification des chocs anticipés sur la productivité future. Dans le premier chapitre, j’étudie l’effet de l’incertitude relative aux politiques monétaire et fiscale sur les rendements et les primes de risque associés aux actifs nominaux du gouvernement des États-Unis. J’utilise un modèle d’équilibre stochastique et dynamique de type néo-Keynesien prenant en compte des préférences récursives des agents et des rigidités réelles et nominales. En utilisant un modèle VAR structurel. L’incertitude relative aux politiques économiques est définie comme étant une expansion de la distribution des chocs de politique, expansion au cours de laquelle la moyenne de la distribution reste inchangée. Mes résultats montrent que : (i) Lorsque l’économie est sujette à des chocs imprévisibles sur la volatilité des instruments de politique, le niveau médian de la courbe des rendements baisse de 8,56 points de base, sa pente s’accroît de 13,5 points de base et les primes de risque baissent en moyenne de 0.21 point de base. Cet effet négatif sur le niveau de rendements et les primes de risque est dû à l’impact asymétrique des chocs de signes opposés mais de même amplitude; (ii) Un choc positif à la volatilité des politiques économiques entraîne une hausse des rendements pour toutes les durées de maturité. Cet effet s’explique par le comportement des ménages qui, à la suite du choc, augmentent leur demande de bons dans le but de se prémunir contre les fortes fluctuations espérées au niveau de la consommation, ce qui entraîne des pressions à la baisse sur les rendements. De façon simultanée, ces ménages requièrent une hausse des taux d’intérêt en raison d’une espérance d’inflation future plus grande. Les analyses montrent que le premier effet est dominant, entraînant donc la hausse des rendements observée. Enfin, j’utilise plusieurs mesures empiriques d’incertitude de politiques économiques et un modèle VAR structurel pour montrer les résultats ci-dessus sont conformes avec les faits empiriques. Le Chapitre 2 explore le marché des bons du gouvernement de 12 pays avancés et 8 pays émergents, pendant la période 1999-2012, et analyses la question de savoir s’il y a eu une quelconque convergence du risque associé à ces actifs entre les deux catégories de pays. Je fais une distinction entre risque de défaut et autres types de risque, comme ceux liés au risque d’inflation, de liquidité ou de change. Je commence par montrer théoriquement que le différentiel au niveau des primes de risque « forward » entre les deux pays peut être utilisé pour faire la distinction entre le risque « forward » et les utilise pour montrer qu’il est difficile de conclure que ces autres types de risque dans les pays émergents ont convergé vers les niveaux différents de risque politique, jouent un rôle important dans l’explication des différences de primes de risque – autres que celles associées au risque de défaut– entre les pays émergents et les pays avancés. Le Chapitre 3 propose une nouvelle stratégie d’identification des chocs technologiques anticipés et non-anticipés, qui conduit à des résultats similaires aux prédictions des modèles néo-Keynésiens conventionnels. Il montre que l’incapacité de plusieurs méthodes empiriques à générer des résultats rejoignant la théorie est due à l’impureté des données existences sur la productivité totale des facteurs (TFP), conduisant à mauvaise identification des chocs technologiques non-anticipés-dont les effets estimés ne concordent pas avec l’interprétation de tels chocs comme des chocs d’offre. Ce problème, à son tour, contamine l’identification des chocs technologiques anticipés. Mon co-auteur, Hafedh Bouakez, et moi proposons une stratégie d’identification agnostique qui permet à la TFP d’être affectée de façon contemporaine par deux chocs surprises (technologique et non technologique), le premier étant identifié en faisant recours aux restrictions de signe sur la réponse de l’inflation. Les résultats montrent que les effets des chocs technologiques anticipés et non-anticipés concordent avec les prédictions des modèles néo-Keynésiens standards. En particulier, le puzzle rencontré dans les travaux précédents concernant les effets d’un choc non-anticipé sur l’inflation disparaît lorsque notre nouvelle stratégie est employée.