Academic literature on the topic 'International Law (excl. International Trade Law)'

In an increasingly open global economy, international trade, including exports, is an inseparable part of economic activity between countries. This paper aims to analyze the choice of commodities that have the potential to encourage the implementation of defense equipment trade-in Indonesia along with some optimization efforts. Using the literature review and library research by exploring data of national agricultural export and arms trade, this article identifies selected commodities that have the potential to be exchanged with defense equipment in trade returns, and also attempts to optimize exports to encourage the implementation of trade returns themselves. The results showed that trade return is one of the schemes in international trade in the form of two-way sales. The weaponry system is a strategic product that is still imported by Indonesia from abroad so that it has the potential to be implemented in a trade return scheme. On the other hand, Indonesia is known to excel in agricultural products, especially the plantation subsector, and has succeeded in becoming the top exporters for many agricultural commodities in the global market.

AbstractTRIST is a simple, easy to use, country focused tool to assess the short-term adjustment implications of trade reform. It has been developed to improve the information available to policy makers in developing countries. It has the following key features: projections are based on revenues actually collected at the tariff line level rather than simply applying statutory rates, as in currently available tools; it is transparent, runs in Excel, with formulas and calculation steps visible to the user, and is open-source with users free to change, extend, or improve according to their needs; it has high policy relevance because it projects the impact of tariff reform on total fiscal revenue from imports (including VAT and excise taxes) and results are available at the product level so that sensitive products or sectors can be identified; the tool is flexible and can incorporate tariff liberalization scenarios involving any group of trading partners and any schedule of products. This paper describes the TRIST tool and provides a range of examples that demonstrate the insights that the tool can provide to policy makers on the short-term adjustment impacts of reducing tariffs.

Regulation of trade relations is a complex process that is getting more complicated year by year. The evolution of such relations led to the idea of creating a specialized institution, namely the World Trade Organization. The Marrakesh Agreement created a truly international organization, that is, as defined by the International Law Commission in its draft articles on the responsibility of international organizations, an organization established by a treaty or other instrument governed by international law and having its own international legal personality. Specialists in the field of international law continue to discuss the law governing the activities of the World Trade Organization (WTO). WTO law is a set of agreements and annexes to them, protocols of accession, decisions of WTO bodies, which allows us to consider it a special treaty regime within the framework of international law. WTO law is not isolated, as it is implemented in accordance with the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. This paper attempts to determine the place of WTO law in international law.

This article deals with the globalisation of contract law. It begins with an historical survey before taking an inventory of the various types of uniform law. These range from 'hard' law, such as multilateral treaties, to 'soft' law, an expression that captures various non-binding instruments that can usefully be employed by contracting parties and sovereign states. These include contractual standard terms (e.g. Incoterms 2020) and standard form contracts (e.g. ISDA contracts), as well as UNCITRAL model laws. The influence of national law in the globalisation process is noted, whether it takes the form of influencing the laws of other states or provides input into the creation of uniform law. The UN Convention on the International Sale of Goods (CISG) is examined at key points with reference to the influence exerted by the civil law and the common law in its creation. The importance of maintaining the uniform character of the CISG is underlined. Finally, the role played by the UNIDROIT Principles of International Commercial Contracts (PICC) is also examined.

Abstract The Faculty of Law at Masaryk University in Brno, the Czech Re- public, offers several fields of studies, one of them being the three-year Bachelor’s degree programme of International Trade Law. This programme includes two semesters of English for specific purposes which the students take in their first year of studies. However, as the programme is offered as a part time study, there are only 10 lessons of English taught within two days per semester. Preparing a course which would develop the students’ language abilities and skills in the international trade law environment appears to be rather challenging under such conditions. In the paper I would like to share the ideas and experience from re- designing the syllabus for this course of English for international trade law. I describe the process from the original syllabus to a new one in which the teaching situation and students’ needs are taken into account. The course in- tends to include both product and process oriented goals and helps to improve general professional needs. In order to cover the field specific vocabulary, language practice and soft skills development within the above mentioned limited time frame, the students need to work both before and after the classes. The course is going to be piloted this year and we expect further modifications after its evaluation.

This thesis considers whether, and in what circumstances, internet services providers should be held liable when internet users download and share copyright infringing film and music files. The research draws from the law’s focus on personal responsibility to argue that ISPs should only be under a duty to take steps to prevent infringement where they have created the risk of infringement or where they have significant control over the primary infringers and their actions. Concepts of fault, responsibility, causation and control are analysed in the context of copyright and negligence cases to provide a robust analytical framework for determining copyright liability in the online environment.

Established in 1988, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (the "CITT") replaced the Tariff Board, the Canadian Import Tribunal and the Textile and Clothing Board. Tasked with the responsibilities of advising the government on various trade related matters, conducting injury inquiries and reviewing certain decisions of the customs department, the CITT is an important source of Canadian trade policy and jurisprudence. This paper focuses on the role the CITT has played in the development of Canadian trade jurisprudence, with particular emphasis on the CITT's material injury inquiries and its appellate review of Canada Customs' classification and valuation determinations. Placing these decisions against the background of Canada's international trade commitments, the author gives a mixed review of the CITT's performance to date. That said, the author notes that a significant proportion of the CITT's failures in this area is more accurately attributable to the statutory limitations to its jurisdiction due to the incomplete manner in which Parliament has implemented Canada's international trade commitments into domestic law.

To be able to offer a deeper understanding of the topic this work will first examine the concept of legal personality, its meaning and application in the legal framework of international law over the years. Without claiming advanced technological knowledge in scientific areas like robotics and engineering the paper will then try to present some basic overview over the latest developments concerning Artificial Intelligence, such as quantum computing and emotional intelligence. Consequently some suggestions about possibilities of connecting these two topics will be made. The questions introduced will engage with the nature and different forms of legal personhood, its connection to intelligence, autonomy and/or consciousness. This paper aims to create a more practical and not a general, hypothetical idea of how an AI agent could be granted international legal personality and what could be the possible effects of that (for example rights and obligations). For this purpose it will focus on the recognised subjects of international law and examine on their example an AI agent as a possible future actor in international legal relationships. Subject of reference will be international law and recent developments in EU law, such as the European Parliament initiative to regulate Artificial Intelligence as well as some regulations and “visions” of national legislation, for example Estonia and China. Consequently the dangers of granting legal personhood to AI agents will be presented and discussed. The arguments against the creation of a “technical veil” will be examined closely. The work will then refer to possible advantages and positive aspects of an AI’s legal personhood under international law. In the final chapter a conclusion and some recommendation will be made.

The thesis is on “Finance Leasing in International trade”. It considers the question “How well does English law recognise and encourage the use of finance leasing in equipment trade?” The discussion shows that, on the one hand, English law has recognised the financing nature of finance leasing. It sees the lessor in a finance leasing arrangement merely as a financier, who steps into a sale of equipment which might otherwise take place between the supplier and the lessee. In addition, English law recognises that there are two agreements between the parties: a sale between the supplier and the lessor and a finance lease between the lessor and the lessee. Although English law does not view the transaction as a triangular relationship, it entitles the lessee to a cause of action against the supplier in various circumstances. It also allows the lessor to exclude from liability for the quality of the asset and to secure his commercial interests in the transaction by retaining ownership of the asset. On the other hand, however, English law fails to provide solutions to some problems arising from the financing nature of the transaction. For example, it is difficult for the lessor to be completely free of responsibility for the condition of the asset, which is imposed by the Supply of Goods and Services Act 1982. His obligation to ensure the lessee’s quiet enjoyment of the lessee is also obscure. In addition, the lessee does not have a proprietary right over the asset at law and this has led to distortion of some of the legal principles regarding ownership and property. The discussion leads to the conclusion that the law pertaining to finance leasing is on the whole satisfactory to facilitate equipment trade but reform is called for in some areas. The following suggestions are proposed to improve the use of finance leasing in the trade of equipment, both domestically and internationally. Firstly, the law should define finance leasing by providing explicit pronouncement of its financial nature and the triangular relationship. Secondly, the obligations and rights of the parties should be more specific. For example, the lessor’s responsibility for the lessee’s quiet enjoyment under the 1982 Act should be clarified as follows: “the lessor ensures that he has the right to lease the asset so that the lessee may enjoy exclusive possession of it free from disturbance by a person whose title is paramount to the lessor’s, unless the disturbance stems from actions of the lessor”. But the lessor should be excluded from all the obligations as to the condition of the asset under the Supply of Goods and Service Act 1982. The supplier should be liable to the lessee for the condition of the asset and, at his default, the lessee should be able to resort to a cause of action against him, being a third party to the supply agreement under the Contract (Third Party Rights) Act 1999. In addition, the lessee should be responsible for the payment of the total rentals irrevocably and his right over the asset should be recognised as a legal proprietary right.

In the last five years, textiles and apparel have represented the largest source of growth of U.S. imports from countries covered by the Caribbean Basin Initiative. The economic importance of this sector to the Caribbean countries gave rise to this study which discusses the international regulation of textile and apparel trade and the possible effects of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations and the North American Free Trade Agreement on the Caribbean textile and apparel industry. This analysis takes into account not only the legal mechanisms developed to control trade in this sector, but also the underlining powers that have allowed the shaping of the current textile and apparel order. Special emphasis is placed on U.S. trade policies toward the Caribbean Region which have played a significant role in the present development of the Caribbean apparel industry.

This thesis seeks to balance trade and environmental concerns in international law. It studies a number of multilateral environmental and trade agreements to observe the extent to which environmental and trade treaty regimes have made allowances for each other's interests, and whether allowed such interests to be disregarded or overridden in practice. Serious questions remain, however, about the compatibility between overlapping environmental and trade rules in the absence of a clear authority relationship or means of securing unity in the international legal order as a whole. The international legal system does not possess well-developed hierarchies; thus, none of the agreements inherently takes precedence in the event of a conflict. Consequently, the aim should be to achieve a better harmonization of the two regimes through available mechanisms. The multilateral trade agreements have made allowances and included exceptions with regard to the protection of environmental concerns. However, the precise way in which trade institutions balance environmental considerations by comparison with trade considerations is likely to prove critically important for the protection of the environment. It is for this reason that this thesis analyses the current balance between trade and environmental considerations in the international legal order, and proposes ways for improving its coherence.

This thesis explores the ill-defined and oft-underestimated relationship between the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and taxation. By adopting a two-pronged approach, the work will (i) examine the extent to which the WTO legal framework exerts influence upon domestic tax law and international tax policy, and will (ii) question whether it is appropriate for the WTO to play a regulatory role in the field of taxation, and whether this role should be expanded or curtailed. The thesis presents an examination of the historical development of international trade law and international tax law, and reveals that these two separate areas of law are closely linked in terms of their underlying principles and historical evolution. The work then goes on to offer a doctrinal analysis of the tax content found in the WTO legal texts and highlights ambiguities therein. Analysis focuses on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT), the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement), and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Throughout the analysis, attention is placed on the income tax litigation between the European Union and the United States (the Domestic International Sales Corporation and the Foreign Sales Corporation tax breaks), and on future possible tax conflicts. It is found that the WTO plays a crucial role in regulating taxation matters, but that the rules pertaining to taxation are often unmanageably ambiguous, and this may result in unforeseen conflicts with domestic and international tax policy. Four recommendations are offered to resolve this legal ambiguity: a reappraisal of the direct-indirect tax distinction, the clarification of legal texts, the establishment of a WTO Committee on Trade and Taxation, and the development of institutional linkages and dialogue between the WTO and the traditional international tax institutions, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations (UN).

This dissertation discusses the evolvement of Chinese Contractual law and establishes as to whether it converges or has any similarity with any Western legal norms and standards. I will view the recent history and early sources of Chinese law as influenced by political changes and tradition; as well as the influence of international commercial transaction agreements. The formation of a contract, standard terms and modification of contracts and the dissolution and breach in Chinese contracts will be discussed and also whether parties do in fact have the freedom to enter agreements with each other without third party interference. The role played by the Judiciary when addressing the issue of contractual disputes and in particular the Interpretations and Opinions of the Supreme Peoples' Court of China on the new Chinese Contract Law will be considered, as well as whether the concept of Doctrine of Precedent as practiced in the West does in fact exist in China. My motivation for choosing this topic is based on the fact that China is (1) the second largest economy in the world and her consequential impact on world trade, (2) its economic influence in the world especially Africa, (3) the fact that China is South Africa's largest trade partner, (4) South Africa's membership of BRICS [1] , and (5), China's growing influence in the world in the creation of parallel institutions to the West, such as the New Development Bank (formerly known as the BRICS Development Bank) rivalling current Western institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The article deals with the subject, system and sources of trade (entrepreneurial) law in the aspect of the international space. The author of the article notes a significant practical connection between international business and international private law, names their main features as a dispositive method of legal regulation, independence and equality of subjects of civil legal relations, the presence of corresponding rights and obligations among the subjects of such relations, a pronounced property nature of the civil liability of subjects.

Depending on the justification of the domination promulgates Law principles which is related with the multi-areas of the social life and assures implementation of Law rules due to its judicial power. However, nowadays implementation of State’s Law principles has been gradually damaged. In fact, not only markets transformed into the world bazaar with the globalization but also the participants of the markets acts global. As a result of the findings of the economic facts, one State’s cross-border trade and beside the national law which regulates the economic actions, normative arrangements increase which adjust identical subjects and receive the sources from different fields and in order for the operation of the current adjustment they create novice establishments with the view point of showing action in different types of areas. As a parallel of these improvements “international economy law” which arranges the international economical actions in the western countries and examines the law principles as a whole which is usually founded dispersedly is developed. Cross border economical actions constitute the subject of a lots of diversified law arrangement. While some of them are the characters of public law and private law, the others originate from international law. Fractionally, nonbinding rules are also inclusive here. At this point the whole law regulations which are about the international rules, determines the scope of international law relations. So in this research, in accordance with the globalization, our purpose is to examine the source and term of the international economy law.

Are international human rights treaties associated with better rights performance? The appetite for a conclusive answer has driven a number of large scale quantitative studies that have broadly shown little or no effect, and sometimes even a backsliding. However, the headline conclusions belie much more complicated findings, and the research methods used are controversial. These issues undermine confidence in the findings. Comparative and individual case studies allow for more detailed information about how domestic human rights activists use international human rights laws in practice. They tend to be more positive about the effect of treaties, but they are not as systematic as the quantitative work. Some indirect measures of treaty effect show that the norms contained within them filter down into domestic constitutions, and that the process of human rights reporting at the UN may be useful if dialogue can be considered an a priori good. It is likely that states are driven to comply with human rights obligations through a combination of dynamic influences. Drivers of compliance with international law is a major, unresolved question in the research that is heavily influenced by the worldview of researchers. The two strongest findings are: Domestic context drives compliance. In particular: (1) The strength of domestic non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and links with international NGOs (INGOs), and (2) in partial and transitioning democracies where locals have a reason to use the treaties as tools to press their claims. External enforcement may help drive compliance when: (1) other states link human rights obligations in the treaties to preferential trade agreements, and (2) INGOs ‘name and shame’ human rights violations, possibly reducing inward investment flows from companies worried about their reputation. Scholars also identify intermediate effects of continued dialogue and norm socialisation from the UN’s human rights reporting processes. Interviews with diplomats involved in UN reporting say that the process is more effective when NGOs and individual governments are involved.

Free trade areas (and customs unions) were established in a multilateral level since in Article XXIV of the GATT, and that is the legal minimum from which preferential trade agreements are now built. Some say CPTPP is part of a new generation of Free Trade Agreements because it goes deeper in the integration process. The CPTPP Agreement is a 584-page treaty, a very extensive legal instrument with 30 chapters, so when we talk about legal trends it refers to all 30 chapters at first. But it’s not the idea to explain every chapter in this text, not even just the dispute mechanisms, but the legal highlights that make the CPTPP an example of the new structure in international trade law. The CPTPP’s new chapters constitute the actual trade agenda and establish a minimum level of protection on topics not specially linked to trade, but which are now essential to talk about a new configuration of trade agreements, such as investments, intellectual property, e-commerce, among others

Improved transparency and accountability are crucial to strengthening the management of forest sector revenues. Consequently, this has been a particular focus of the international community – through the EU’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). This paper looks at how reforms over the last decade have impacted the collection and distribution of forest sector revenues in three African countries: Ghana, Liberia and the Republic of the Congo. While there is clear progress in some areas, more action is needed to improve the collection and distribution of revenues to benefit country governments and their rural populations.

This paper analyzes the behavior of a long list of economic variables during episodes of recovery from an economic collapse. A set of stylized facts is proposed so as to depict what in this work is called \saygrowth recoveries. Through different estimation techniques, it is inferred under which conditions and policies the likelihood of experiencing a growth recovery increases. The results of the paper indicate that collapses tend to occur in countries with high dependence on natural resource rents, macroeconomic mismanagement, low levels of democratic accountability and rule of law and high levels of conflict. Recoveries, on the other hand, tend to be longer than collapses and are more likely to occur in contexts of: improved external conditions, less natural resource rents, balanced fiscal accounts, where the exchange rate corrects but within a more fixed exchange rate regime and a more restricted financial account, and where there are: rebounds in private consumption, increases in international trade and improvements on property rights.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.