Academic literature on the topic 'Integrated Fr 13 risk'

Abstract Background: Patients with cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (head and neck cancer (HNC)) tend to aspirate, either due to disease or treatment. The association of aspiration (documented on video fluorography (VFG)) with quality of life (QOL) and unexpected mortality was studied prospectively in patients treated with simultaneous integrated boost technique of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (SIB-IMRT). Materials and Methods: Moderately advanced (stage III/IV) HNC were treated by SIB-IMRT delivering 66 Gy/30 fr, 60 Gy/30 fr, and 54 Gy/30 fr to high, intermediate, and low risk volumes, respectively. They underwent serial VFG and QOL assessments (Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 ( QLQ-C30) and head and neck-35 (HN35) European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) tools) at 0, 3, and 6 months. Pharyngeal musculature (PM) was additionally delineated on planning computed tomography (CT) scans as potential organs at risk (OARs). Results: Between November 2009 and May 2011, 20 HNC were treated as per protocol. All patients were fit (Karnofsky performance status (KPS) ≥ 80). Based on VFG findings, seven patients (4/9 oropharynx and 3/11 laryngopharynx) were grouped as aspirators (A) and remaining 13 as non-aspirators (NA). The QOL study showed that pretreatment coughing and swallowing difficulties were greater in group A versus NA and remained persistently higher. In group A, deaths attributable to aspiration were seen in 3/7 patients, while none occurred in the NA group (Fisher′s exact P = 0.03). The mean PM dose was 60 Gy in both the groups and mean V60 was similar at 69 and 67% in A and NA groups, respectively. Conclusions: VFG helps identify patients who aspirate and are at risk of premature death due to its complications, alerting caregivers to direct attention appropriately.

145 Background: In men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (IR-PC) treated with low dose EBRT, the addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) prolongs overall survival. Zumsteg proposes a subdivision for de IR-PC group: favorable or unfavorable. Purpose: retrospective evaluation of EBRT efficacy according to IR-PC subgroups (favorable or unfavorable). Methods: From the institutional radiotherapy department database, from 2000 to 2011, 95 men with IR-PC were identified and subdivided as follows: Favorable Risk (FR) – Gleason 3+4 or less and positive prostate biopsies (ppb) not exceeding 50% and only one intermediate-risk factor excluding 4+3; Unfavorable risk (UR) – Gleason 4+3 or at least 2 intermediate-risk factors or at least one intermediate risk factor and ppb >50%. Results: 95 patients were included in the analysis, mean FUP 6.2 years. 32.6% (31) had >50% ppb, 14.7% (14) had Gleason 4+3, 38.9% (37) had 2 intermediate-risk factors. 42.1% (40) were FR and 57.9% (55) were UR. Median EBRT dose: 79.8Gy. Only 25% of FR patients received some hormonal therapy treatment. There were no differences in time to Prostatic Specific Androgen (PSA) nadir (FR 12 vs UR 13 months; p= .50), biochemical relapse free survival (RFS) (FR 60 vs US 58 months; p= .80), or doubling time PSA (FR 12 vs UR 11 months; p= .19). Biochemical relapse (BR) and local relapse (LR) rates were lower for FR (BR: FR 27.5 vs UR 38.2%, p= .17; LR: FR 5 vs UR 14.5%, p= .40). Local RFS (FR 13.6 vs UR 9.6 years; p= .11) and distant RFS (FR 13.1 vs UR 12.4 years; p= .65) were longer for FR patients. Conclusions: Short course ADT is the standard treatment in IR-PC patients when EBRT is indicated, especially if they have UR features. In our study IR-PC group had heterogeneous outcomes and, in spite the study limitations, FR patients had a trend for better prognosis even with a very low use of ADT. If Favorable IR-PC patients may avoid ADT morbidity should be answered by a randomized trial.

Background. To report 5-year clinical outcomes and toxicity in organ-confined prostate cancer (PCa) for low- and intermediate-risk patients treated with a moderately hypofractionated schedule of radiotherapy (RT) delivered with simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) compared to a conventionally fractionated RT regimen. Methods. Data of 384 patients with PCa treated between August 2006 and June 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. The treatment schedule consisted of hypofractionated RT (HYPO FR) with SIB up to 70 Gy to the prostate gland and 63 Gy to seminal vesicles delivered in 28 fractions or in conventionally fractionated RT (CONV FR) up to a total dose of 80 Gy in 40 fractions. Patient allocation to treatment was based on the time period considered. For intermediate-risk patients, androgen deprivation was given for a median duration of 6 months. The 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) were assessed. Furthermore, we evaluated gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicities. Uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to test the impact of clinical variables on both outcome and toxicity. Results. A total of 198 patients was treated with hypofractionated RT and 186 with the conventional schedule. At a median follow-up of 5 years, no significant differences were observed in terms of GI toxicity and outcome between the two groups. Early GU toxicity was significantly increased in HYPO FR, while late GU toxicity was significantly higher in CONV FR. In HYPO FR, a biochemical relapse occurred in 12 patients (6.1%), and 9 patients (4.5%) reported a clinical relapse (4 local, 2 locoregional, and 3 systemic recurrence). In CONV FR, 15 patients (8.1%) experienced a biochemical relapse and 11 patients (5.9%) showed a clinical relapse (5 local, 4 locoregional, and 3 systemic recurrences). Early grades 1-2 GU and GI toxicities were observed in 60 (30.3%) and 37 (18.7%) patients, respectively, in the hypofractionated group and in 33 (17.7%) and 27 (14.5%) patients, respectively, in the conventionally fractionated RT group. Late GU and GI toxicities occurred in 1 (0.51%) and 8 (4.1%) patients, respectively, in HYPO FR. In CONV FR, 5 (2.7%) and 6 (3.2%) patients experienced late GU and GI toxicities, respectively. The 5-year OS, bRFS, and CSS were 98.9%, 94.1%, and 99.5%, respectively, in HYPO FR, and 94.5%, 92.1%, and 99.0%, respectively, in CONV FR. Conclusions. Results obtained in this study showed that moderately hypofractionated RT employing SIB can be an effective approach providing valuable clinical outcomes with an acceptable toxicity profile.

Abstract Abstract 761 Conventional cytogenetics and morphologic response to induction chemotherapy have historically provided the tools for predicting outcome in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Several mutations are predictive of clinical outcome and have provided additional tools to help predict outcome in patients with AML without other risk features. Despite these recent advances, our ability to identify specific risk groups has been limited to a subset of patients, and nearly half of the patients with AML are regarded as having standard-risk (SR) disease. We inquired whether adding response by multidimensional flow cytometry (MDF) to data from conventional cytogenetics analysis and presence/absence of genomic alterations of FLT3 (FLT3-ITD), CEBPA, and NPM would provide a more robust risk-stratification system for risk-based therapy allocation. COG AML protocol AAML03P1 collected comprehensive cytogenetics characteristics, mutation profile (FLT3/ITD, CEBPA, and NPM mutation status), and MDF data on most of the 340 eligible patients enrolled on the study. Molecular and cytogenetic data were available for 275 of the 293 (94%) patients with responsive disease at the end of induction I. Disease-free survival (DFS) from the end of induction I was determined based on a combined molecular and cytogenetic risk profile. Risk status was defined based on the presence of t(8;21), inv(16), NPMc, and CEBPA mutations (favorable risk, FR) or the presence of monosomy 7, monosomy 5/del5q, and high allelic ratio FLT3-ITD (high risk, HR). On the basis of this allocation, 88 (32%) patients had FR AML, and 26 (10%) had HR AML. The remaining 161 (59%) patients without specific risk features were considered to have SR AML. DFS at 2 years from the end of induction I was 70%±12% for the FR cohort, 55% ±9% for the SR cohort, and 17%±20% for the HR cohort (p<0.001). The prevalence and prognostic significance of minimal residual disease (MRD) were assessed in the 103 patients with SR disease; 31 (30%) had evidence of MRD by MDF. DFS at 3 years from the end of induction I was significantly worse for those with MRD than for those without it (26%±21% vs. 67%±13%, p=0.01). Corresponding relapse risk in patients with or without MRD was 69%±21% and 30%±13%, respectively (p=0.011). We assessed the clinical impact of MRD in patients with HR or FR disease. Of the 18 patients with HR AML who had MRD data, 8 (44%) had MRD. DFS at 2 years for patients with HR disease with or without MRD was not significantly different (13%±23% vs. 36%±40%; p=0.127). Of the 73 patients with FR AML, MRD was detected in 12 (16%); MRD did not significantly influence DFS at 3 years from the end of induction I in those patients (45%±33% vs. 72%±17%, p=0.138). Thus, although the presence of MRD was significantly associated with worse outcome in patients with SR AML, similar significance could not be demonstrated in the FR or HR cohorts. Clinical outcomes of risk groups were reassessed after combining the MRD data with specific cytogenetic and molecular risk groups, i.e., patients with SR AML and MRD were added to the HR cohort, and those without MRD were added to the FR cohort. In the new risk-stratification system, 57 of 217 (26%) patients were in the HR cohort, and the remaining 160 (74%) patients were in the FR cohort. DFS at 3 years from induction I was 68%±9% for the FR cohort and 20%±16% (p<0.001) for the HR cohort. Cumulative incidence of relapse at 3 years from the end of induction I for those with FR or HR disease was 27%±9% and 71%±17%, respectively (p<0.001). Cytogenetics, molecular genotyping, and post-induction MDF analysis provide a robust means of stratifying all pediatric patients with AML into 2 risk groups with significantly different outcomes. This novel risk-allocation schema will be implemented in the upcoming COG Phase III AML trial. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Landslide is one of the most important geomorphological hazards that cause significant ecological and economic losses and results in billions of dollars in financial losses and thousands of casualties per year. The occurrence of landslide in northern Iran (Alborz Mountain Belt) is often due to the geological and climatic conditions and tectonic and human activities. To reduce or control the damage caused by landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) and landslide risk assessment are necessary. In this study, the efficiency and integration of frequency ratio (FR) and random forest (RF) in statistical- and artificial intelligence-based models and different digital elevation models (DEMs) with various spatial resolutions were assessed in the field of LSM. The experiment was performed in Sangtarashan watershed, Mazandran Province, Iran. The study area, which extends to 1,072.28 km2, is severely affected by landslides, which cause severe economic and ecological losses. An inventory of 129 landslides that occurred in the study area was prepared using various resources, such as historical landslide records, the interpretation of aerial photos and Google Earth images, and extensive field surveys. The inventory was split into training and test sets, which include 70 and 30% of the landslide locations, respectively. Subsequently, 15 topographic, hydrologic, geologic, and environmental landslide conditioning factors were selected as predictor variables of landslide occurrence on the basis of literature review, field works and multicollinearity analysis. Phased array type L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR), ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), and SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEMs were used to extract topographic and hydrologic attributes. The RF model showed that land use/land cover (16.95), normalised difference vegetation index (16.44), distance to road (15.32) and elevation (13.6) were the most important controlling variables. Assessment of model performance by calculating the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve parameter showed that FR–RF integrated model (0.917) achieved higher predictive accuracy than the individual FR (0.865) and RF (0.840) models. Comparison of PALSAR, ASTER, and SRTM DEMs with 12.5, 30 and 90 m spatial resolution, respectively, with the FR–RF integrated model showed that the prediction accuracy of FR–RF–PALSAR (0.917) was higher than FR–RF–ASTER (0.865) and FR–RF–SRTM (0.863). The results of this study could be used by local planners and decision makers for planning development projects and landslide hazard mitigation measures.

Landslide susceptibility mapping is of critical importance to identify landslide-prone areas to reduce future landslides, causalities, and infrastructural damages. This paper presents landslide susceptibility maps at a regional scale for the Chittagong Hilly Areas (CHA), Bangladesh. The frequency ratio (FR) was integrated with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) (FR_AHP) and logistic regression (LR) (FR_LR). A landslide inventory of 730 landslide locations and 13 landslide predisposing factors including elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), land use/land cover, rainfall, distance from drainage network, distance from fault lines, lithology, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used. Landslide locations were randomly split into training (80%) and validation (20%) sites to support the susceptibility analysis. A safe zone was determined based on a slope threshold for logistic regression using the exploratory data analysis. The same number of non-landslide locations were randomly selected from the safe zone to train the model (FR_LR). Success and prediction rate curves and statistical indices, including overall accuracy, were used to assess model performance. The success rate curves show that FR_LR showed the highest area under the curve (AUC) (79.46%), followed by the FR_AHP (77.15%). Statistical indices also showed that the FR_LR model gave the best performance as the overall accuracy was 0.86 for training and 0.82 for validation datasets. The prediction rate curve shows similar results. The correlation analysis shows that the landslide susceptibility maps produced by FR and FR_AHP are highly correlated (0.95). In contrast, the correlation between the maps produced by FR and FR_LR was relatively lower (0.85). It indicates that the three models are highly convergent with each other. This study’s integrated methods would be helpful for regional-scale landslide susceptibility mapping, and the landslide susceptibility maps produced would be useful for regional planning and disaster management of the CHA, Bangladesh.

Background:Low bone mineral density (BMD) is common in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). The fracture risk (FR) is increased and its reduction with pharmacologic therapy is not clearly defined in this population. However, early screening and bisphosphonates as first-line treatment are recommended.Objectives:To investigate the influence of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in the ten-year risk of fracture assessed by FR Assessment Tool (FRAX) and to determine possible demographic or clinical factors associated with an increased FR in a spondyloarthritis (SpA) population.Methods:Retrospective study including all the over 40 years-old SpA patients (ASAS classification criteria) followed at our Rheumatology Department and registered in the national database. Demographic, clinical and laboratorial data were collected at the time of the last follow-up visit. Data from the last DXA (until 3 years prior to the last visit) were collected. Indication for pharmacological treatment by FRAX was assessed according to the national recommendations.Results:A total of 231 SpA patients were included: 126 males (54.5%), 53 (22.9%) smokers; 171 (74%) had AS, 23 (10%) had Inflammatory Bowel Disease Associated SpA and 37 (16%) had Undifferentiated SpA. At the last follow-up visit, the mean age was 52.9 years (±9.6) and the median disease duration was 21.9 years [1.0-55.5]. The mean ASDAS-CRP was 2.5 (±0.9) and the majority of patients had moderate (25.5%) or high (48.5%) disease activity (according to ASDAS). One hundred and thirty patients (56.3%) were taking NSAIDs, 45 (19.5%) were taking glucocorticoids, 85 (36.8%) were under csDMARDs and 170 (73.6%) under bDMARDs [157 (68%) under TNFi, 11 (4.8%) under secukinumab and 2 (0.9%) under ustekinumab].Eleven patients (4.8%) had previous fragility fractures, 118 (51.1%) had DXA in the last 3 years and 167 (72.3%) were taking calcium and/or vitamin D supplements.Sixteen patients (6.9%) had indication for treatment by FRAX without DXA and 9 of these (56.3%) were already under treatment. Similarly, 16 (6.9%) had indication for treatment by FRAX with DXA and 13 of these (81.3%) were already under treatment. Ten patients (4.3%) were reclassified in FRAX with DXA: 7 (3%) had no indication for treatment by FRAX without DXA but obtained it by FRAX with DXA and 3 (1.3%) had indication for treatment by FRAX without DXA but they lost it by FRAX with DXA. We found a moderate level of agreement in the indication for treatment between FRAX with and without DXA (kappa=0.595; p<0.001). The use of DXA in FRAX estimated a significant higher median FR, both for major osteoporotic fracture (2.4% [0.8-31.0] vs 1.8% [0.6-20.0]; p<0.001) and for hip fracture (0.5% [0.0-23.0] vs 0.2% [0.0-14.0]; p<0.001).We found significant correlations between FR and some disease-related variables (table 1).Table 1.Correlations between the risk of fracture estimated by FRAX and disease-related variables.Disease durationBASDAIASDAS-CRPBASMIBASFIEstimated fracture risk by FRAX:without DXAmajor osteoporotic fracturer=0.352p<0.001r=0.204p=0.002r=0.214p=0.001r=0.301p<0.001r=0.317p<0.001hip fracturer=0.389p<0.001r=0.142p=0.034r=0.170p=0.011r=0.305p<0.001r=0.275p<0.001with DXAmajor osteoporotic fracturer=0.227p=0.014r=0.314p=0.001r=0.356p<0.001r=0.293p=0.002r=0.379p<0.001hip fracturen.s.r=0.197p=0.036r=0.269p=0.004r=0.271p=0.004r=0.258p=0.006Conclusion:Our results showed that a similar number of patients had indication for pharmacological treatment by FRAX both with and without DXA. Although the inclusion of DXA resulted in a higher estimated FR by FRAX, the observed moderate level of agreement between FRAX with and without DXA suggests that the FR estimation by FRAX, even without DXA, may be a reasonable approach in SpA patients. In line with literature, we found significant associations between the estimated risk fracture by FRAX and some disease activity and function measures.Disclosure of Interests:Bruno Miguel Fernandes: None declared, Salomé Garcia: None declared, Sara Ganhão: None declared, Maria Rato: None declared, Filipe Pinheiro: None declared, Miguel Bernardes Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Amgen, Biogen, Eli-Lilly, Glaxo-Smith-Kline, Pfizer, Janssen, Novartis, Lúcia Costa: None declared

Steady-state unit-operations are used globally in chemical engineering processing. Importantly however, there are naturally occurring (random) fluctuations in parameter values about a ‘set’ mean. These are not sufficient to be considered transient and a random change in one is often off-set by a change in another - with the result that the output remains seemingly steady. Significantly, traditional chemical engineering does not address these random fluctuations explicitly. Davey and co-workers (e.g. Abdul Halim and Davey, 2015; Zou and Davey, 2016) have shown that these natural fluctuations can combine and accumulate in one direction and leverage unexpected and surprise behaviour across a ‘failure - not failure’ boundary. Their hypothesis they titled Fr 13 (Friday 13th) to underscore the surprise element of the failure event. Their probabilistic Fr 13 framework has been usefully applied to a number of 1-step unit-operations including failure in: UV irradiation for potable water (Abdul-Halim and Davey, 2015; 2016); thermal efficiency of a commercial coal-fired boiler (Davey, 2015), metals pitting (Davey et al., 2016), and; failure to remove whey protein deposits in Clean-In-Place milk processing (Davey et al., 2015). A significant advantage is that the framework can be used in quantitative ‘second-tier’ studies (Abdul-Halim and Davey, 2016) to improve design and safety of unit-operations. A limitation however is that the framework had been applied to only 1-step (single) unit-operations until very recently when Zou and Davey (2016) demonstrated its applicability to integrated 2-step membranes processing. Generally however, it is not known if there is any benefit in developing the framework as a useful tool for integrated, greater multi-step unit-operations and its possible combination (Davey et al., 2013) with existing software to enhance design capability. Davey (2011) had suggested these integrated multi-step analyses be termed ‘global’ models. A research program is therefore undertaken with the aim to advance the Fr 13 framework to gain unique insight into how naturally occurring fluctuations in apparent steady-state plant parameters can be transmitted and impact in progressively complex (in the context of ‘integrated’ not ‘complicated’) multi-step processes, and to assess the framework as a new design tool. A logical and stepwise approach is implemented as a research strategy. Because foods processing is globally the largest manufacturing sector, and within it, pasteurization is the most widely used unit-operation, a typical 3-step pasteurization unit operation, consisting of individual 1) heat-up, 2) holding and 3) cool-down, unit-operations is selected as a prudent and stringent test of the Fr 13 risk thesis to multi-step unit-operations. An initial assessment, based on typical commercial pasteurization equipment for raw milk (plate heat exchangers and an external-coil holding tube) is synthesized for the first time (Chandrakash et al., 2015; 2014; Davey et al., 2014) and a generalized method of notation for the Fr 13 risk framework is developed to unambiguously identify particular unit-operations in integrated multi-step processes. Failure is defined in terms of not meeting a globally used Regulatory combination of temperature (T) - time (t) (72 °C, 15 s). Results revealed that pasteurization of raw milk is vulnerable to failure in 12.5 % of all cases over the long-term as a result of with-in system fluctuations in flows, and thermal conditions. If each simulation is (reasonably) considered a daily process this translated to some 46 failures each year with a 2 % design tolerance 2 to meet the required T - t pasteurization criteria. Results highlighted that apparent steady-state pasteurization is actually a combination of successful and (potential) failed operations. This insight could not be obtained from existing traditional risk and hazard approaches, with or without sensitivity analyses. A drawback soon acknowledged however, is that this equipment model did not explicitly address the reduction in unwanted levels of survival of potential contaminant microorganisms in the treated milk. To overcome this, a microbiological global risk model is developed for the first time for the 3-step pasteurization. The logarithmic reduction of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), a common bacterial contaminant and pathogen, is selected as an indicator of efficacy of process, and an inactivation model is then synthesized (Chandrakash and Davey, 2017 a). Results showed that for a design Regulatory reduction of log₁₀ = 5.5 in viable MAP the 3-step pasteurization is vulnerable to failure in 5.75 % of cases with a 2 % design tolerance averaged over the long term. This equated to ~ 21 failures with viable MAP each year based on a daily operation. To further test applicability of the risk framework to multi-step processing, a fourth integrated step, the storage of the pasteurized milk, is added for the first time (Chandrakash and Davey, 2017 b). A justification is that this simulated commercial practice more closely. Results of simulation of this 4-step model showed that with a design tolerance of 2 % for a Regulatory design reduction of log₁₀ = 5.5 in viable MAP on heat-up to 72 °C with 15 s holding in commercial plate equipment, there would be no further failures i.e. the rate of vulnerability to failure in a 4-step microbiological model for pasteurizing and storing milk remained 5.75 %, averaged over the long term. Results from investigative second-tier studies with the new 4-step Fr 13 model to improve design and safety, revealed vulnerability to microbiological failure can be readily mitigated by installing precise safety-integrity-level (SIL) mass flow control on the raw milk in existing plant to ensure a holding time of ≥ 15 s. It is concluded the Fr 13 framework appears generalizable to integrated multi-step steady-state processes without methodological problems and an advance over current existing risk/hazard methodologies. If properly developed, it is believed that this novel framework could be adopted as a new design tool for steady-state processing at both design and synthesis stages. Research findings will aid a detailed understanding of factors that contribute to failures, and to increased confidence in steady-state unit-operations processing. This research work is original and not incremental work. Findings will be of direct interest to risk analysts, milk processors and manufacturers of pasteurizer equipment.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Chemical Engineering, 2017.

Steady-state operations are used globally in chemical engineering. Advantages include ease of control and a more uniform product quality (Ghasem and Henda, 2008; McCabe et al, 2001). Importantly however, there will be naturally occurring, random (stochastic) fluctuations in parameter values about the ‘set’ mean when process control is inadequate. These are not addressed explicitly in traditional chemical engineering because they are not sufficient on their own to be considered transient (unsteady) and because, generally, fluctuations in one parameter are off-set by changes in others with plant output behaviour seeming to remain steady (Amundson et al., 1980; Sinnott, 2005; Zou and Davey, 2016). Davey and co-workers, however, have demonstrated these fluctuations can unexpectedly accumulate in one direction and leverage significant (sudden and surprise) change in output behaviour with failure in product or plant (e.g. Abdul-Halim and Davey, 2016; Zou and Davey, 2016; Chandrakash and Davey, 2017). To underscore the unexpected element of the failure event they titled their risk framework Fr 13 2 (Friday 13th Syndrome). Case studies of their probabilistic risk framework to 1-step operations include loss of thermal efficiency in a coal-fired boiler (Davey, 2015 a) and failure to remove whey deposits in Clean-In-Place (CIP) milk processing (Davey et al., 2015). More recently, to advance their risk framework for progressively, multi-step and complex (in the sense of ‘integrated’, not ‘complicated’) processes they demonstrated its usefulness to 2-step membrane fouling with combined ultrafiltration-osmotic distillation (UF-OD) (Zou and Davey, 2016), and; a 3-step microbiological raw milk pasteurization (Chandrakash and Davey, 2017). Findings overall revealed no methodological complications in application - and it was concluded the risk framework was generalizable (Zou and Davey, 2016; Chandrakash and Davey, 2017). A significant advantage of the framework is it can be used in ‘second-tier studies’ to reduce risk through simulations of intervention strategies and re-design of physical plant or operating practice. It can be applied at both synthesis and analysis stages. 2 see Appendix A for a definition of some important terms used in this research. Although the risk framework has been successfully applied to corrosive pitting of AISI 316L metal widely used in off-shore oil and gas structures (Davey et al., 2016) 3 it was not known if it could provide new insight into corrosion of metal, more specifically microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC), a major problem globally that accounts for ~ 20 % of overall corrosion (Flemming, 1996). It is estimated to cost AUD$7 billion to Australia annually (Javaherdashti and Raman-Singh, 2001). A review of the literature showed that a thorough understanding of MIC has been slow to emerge, both because of the role of micro-organisms in corrosion and because of a lack of methodology to determine any impact of natural fluctuations in the internal pipe environment. Importantly, the insidious nature of MIC was known to pose a practical risk of failure of pipes used to transport wet-fluids. However, because modelling of direct MIC would be uniquely complex it was planned that a general model for corrosion should be synthesized and understood that could be extended. A limited research program was therefore undertaken with the aim to advance the Fr 13 framework and to gain unique insight into how naturally occurring fluctuations in fluid temperature (T) and pH of the internal pipe environment can be transmitted and impact corrosion. A logical and stepwise approach was implemented as a research strategy. The initial model of Smith et al. (2011) was modified to simulate MIC causing micro-organisms such as sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) on widely used ASTM A105 carbon-steel pipe that is corroded under steady-state, abiotic and synthetic conditions. This was solved using traditional, deterministic simulations to give a predicted, underlying corrosion rate (CR) of 0.5 mm yr-1 as impacted by internal pipe-fluid T and pH. Importantly, findings underscored the controlling importance of low pH on CR. This initial model was then simulated, for the first time, using the probabilistic Fr 13 framework (Collins et al., 2016) 4 in which distributions to mimic fluctuations in T (K) and 3 This research was a Finalist, IChemE Global Awards 2016, Innovative Product, Manchester, UK, Nov. 4 Collins, S.D., Davey, K.R., Chu, J.Y.G., O’Neill, B.K., 2016. A new quantitative risk assessment of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) of carbon steel pipes used in chemical engineering. In: pH in the pipe were (reasonably) assumed as truncated Normal, and; a new corrosion risk factor (p) was synthesized such that all p > 0 characterized a CR failure i.e. a corrosion rate greater than 0.5 mm yr-1. Normal distributions that were truncated were used because these permitted T and pH to fluctuate randomly during process operations but limited these to values that could occur only practically. Predictions showed that 28.1 % of all corrosion of ASTM A105 pipe, averaged over the long term for a range of fluctuations 290.15 ≤ T ≤ 298.15 K, and 4.64 ≤ pH ≤ 5.67, would in fact be greater than the underlying value despite a design margin of safety (tolerance) of 50 % CR, and were therefore process failures (p > 0). Findings highlighted that corrosion was a combination of ‘successful’ and ‘failed’ operations. This insight is not available from traditional risk approaches, with or without sensitivity analyses. It was concluded that the Fr 13 framework was an advance over the traditional, deterministic methods because all corrosion scenarios that can practically exist are simulated. It was concluded also that if each simulation was (reasonably) thought of as one operational day, there would be (28.1/100 days × 365.25 days / year) ~103 corrosion failures in ASTM A105 pipe per year. However it was acknowledged that to enhance corrosion simulation, the free corrosion potential (Ecorr, V vs SCE), a key parameter in this initial model formulation, should more realistically be considered a combined function of the internal pipe-fluid T and pH, and; that this assumption should be tested, and, that this would necessitate a trial-and-error simulation for corrosion rate (CR). It was also determined that the truncations that were used for T and pH were too restrictive for off-shore oil processing (Arnold and Stewart, 1999; J. Y. G. Chu, Upstream Production Services Pty Ltd., Australia, pers. comm.). To address this, the initial model was extended mathematically for the first time, and; Fr 13 risk simulations carried out using spread-sheeting techniques utilizing the Solver CHEMECA 2016: Chemical Engineering – Regeneration, Recovery and Reinvention, Sept. 25-28, Adelaide, Australia, paper 3386601. ISBN: 9781922107831 function (Microsoft Excel™). A significant advantage was that the distributions defining the naturally occurring fluctuations in T and pH could be entered, viewed, copied, pasted and manipulated as Excel formulae. Predictions showed (Collins and Davey, 2018) 5 an underlying corrosion rate CR = 0.45 mm yr-1 – a change of approximately 10 % when the design margin of safety (tolerance) was reduced from 50 % to a more realistic 20 % for the improved model. This is significant because the tolerance of a model should be as low as can be accepted, as higher tolerances can infer that the process is safer than it actually is. Fr 13 simulations showed that 43.6 % of all corrosion of internal ASTM A105 pipe, averaged over the long term for a range of realistic fluctuations 282.55 ≤ T ≤ 423.75 K, and 4.12 ≤ pH ≤ 6.18 would be deemed to be process pipe-failures (p > 0). This translates to a corrosion failure in ASTM A105 pipe every 160 days, averaged over the long term. It is not expected that these would be equally spaced however. Findings were used in investigative ‘second-tier’ studies to explore possible intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability to corrosion and to improve plant design and safety. For example, repeat Fr 13 simulations revealed that, for a fixed mean-value of T = 353.15 K a decrease in pH from 5.15 to 4.5 resulted in an increase in carbon-steel pipe corrosion of ~1.55 mm yr-1 i.e. ~347 % increase. This implied that the pipe vulnerability to Fr 13 corrosion failure could be practically minimised by adding bases, such as potassium hydroxide or sodium carbonate (Kemmer, 1988). However, if the pH is too high, anions in the pipe-fluid could precipitate and form insoluble mineral scales, leading to fouling (Pichtel, 2016). It is acknowledged that the present research is limited to an abiotic system i.e. one without micro-organism kinetics. A justification is that the models presented in this research should be seen as a ‘starting point’, which could be expanded in later iterations to include: biotic model components such as the simple bacterial kinetics in the predictive MIC model of Maxwell and Campbell (2006); other species that are involved in MIC such 5 Collins, S.D., Davey, K.R., 2018. A novel Fr 13 risk assessment of corrosion of carbon-steel pipe in de-aerated water. Chemical Engineering Science – submitted CES-D-18-00449, Feb. as sulphates, chlorides and hydrogen sulphide (H2S); different metals/alloys that are used in pipe equipment where MIC can be found e.g. copper or zinc (Roberge, 2000), or; a ‘global’ model i.e. two or more connected unit-operations (Chandrakash and Davey, 2017). (A global model however, might not be applicable because MIC can be initiated in localized sites (Roberge, 2000)). It is concluded that these thesis findings nevertheless significantly enhance understanding of factors that lead to excessive corrosion rates in ASTM A105 pipes. It is concluded also that the Fr 13 risk framework appears generalizable to a range of micro-organism-metal systems and is an advancement over current existing risk and hazard assessments. If properly developed, it is thought that this risk technique could be adopted as a new design tool for steady-state unit-operations in both the design and synthesis stages and to increase understanding of MIC behaviour and outcomes. This research is original and not incremental work. Results and findings will be of immediate benefit and interest to a range of risk analysts, and to a broad range of practical operations involving carbon-steel pipe flows
Thesis (MPhil) -- University of Adelaide, School of Chemical Engineering & Advanced Materials, 2018

Steady-state ultraviolet (UV) irradiation for potable water production is becoming an important global alternative to traditional disinfection by chlorination. Failure of UV to reduce the number of viable contaminant pathogens however can lead to enduring health legacies (with or without fatalities). To better understand vulnerability of UV operations to failure, the probabilistic Fr 13 risk framework of Davey and co-workers1 is applied for the first time in this thesis. Fr 13 is predicated on underlying chemical engineering unit-operations. It is based on the hypothesis that naturally occurring, chance (stochastic) fluctuations about the value of ‘set’ process parameters can unexpectedly combine and accumulate in one direction and leverage significant change across a binary ‘failure– not failure’ boundary. Process failures can result from the accumulation of these fluctuations within an apparent steady-state process itself. That is to say, even with good design and operation of plant, there can be unexpected (surprise and sudden) occasional failures without ‘human error’ or ‘faulty fittings’. Importantly, the impact of these naturally occurring random fluctuations is not accounted for explicitly in traditional chemical engineering. Here, the Fr 13 risk framework is applied for the first time to quantitatively assess operations of logically increasing complexity, namely, a laminar flow-through UV reactor, with turbulent flow in a concentric annular-reactor, both with and without suspended solids present (Davey, Abdul-Halim and Lewis, 2012; Davey and Abdul-Halim, 2013; Abdul-Halim and Davey, 2015; 2016), and; a two-step ‘global’ risk model of combined rapid-sand-filtration and UV irradiation (SF-UV) (Abdul-Halim and Davey, 2017). The work is illustrated with extensive independent data for the survival of viable Escherichia coli - a pathogenic species of faecal bacteria widely used as an indicator for health risk. A logical and step-wise approach was implemented as a research strategy. UV reactor unit-operations models are first synthesized and developed. A failure factor is defined in terms of the design reduction and actual reduction in viable E. coli contaminants. UV reactor operation is simulated using a refined Monte Carlo (with Latin Hypercube) sampling of UV lamp intensity (I), suspended solids concentrations [conc] and water flow (Q). A preliminary Fr 13 failure simulation of a single UV reactor unit-operation (one-step), developed for both simplified laminar flow and turbulent flow models, showed vulnerability to failure with unwanted survival of E. coli of, respectively, 0.4 % and 16 %, averaged over the long term, of all apparently successful steady-state continuous operations. A practical tolerance, as a design margin of safety, of 10 % was assumed. Results from applied ‘second-tier’ studies to assess re-design to improve UV operation reliability and safety and to reduce vulnerability to Fr 13 failure showed that any increased costs to improve control and reduce fluctuations in raw feed-water flow, together with reductions in UV lamp fluence, would be readily justified. The Fr 13 analysis was shown to be an advance on alternate risk assessments because it produced all possible practical UV outcomes, including failures. A more developed and practically realistic model for UV irradiation for potable water production was then synthesized to investigate the impact of the presence of suspended solids (SS) (median particle size 23 μm) as UV shielding and UV absorbing agents, on overall UV efficacy. This resulted in, respectively, some 32.1 % and 43.7 %, of apparent successful operations could unexpectedly fail over the long term due, respectively, to combined impact of random fluctuations in feed-water flow (Q), lamp intensity (I0) and shielding and absorption of UV by SS [conc]. This translated to four (4) failures each calendar month (the comparison rate without suspended solids was two (2) failures per month). Results highlighted that the efficacy of UV irradiation decreased with the presence of SS to 1-log10 reduction, compared with a 4.35-log10 reduction without solids present in the raw feed-water. An unexpected outcome was that UV failure is highly significantly dependent on naturally occurring fluctuations in the raw feed-water flow, and not on fluctuations in the concentration of solids in the feed-water. It was found that the initial presence of solids significantly reduced the practically achievable reductions in viable bacterial contaminants in the annular reactor, but that fluctuations in concentration of solids in the feed-water did not meaningfully impact overall vulnerability of UV efficacy. This finding pointed to a pre-treatment that would be necessary to remove suspended solids prior to the UV reactor, and; the necessity to improve control in feed-water flow to reduce fluctuations. The original synthesis was extended therefore for the first time to include a rapid sand-filter (SF) for pre-treatment of the raw feed-water flow to the UV reactor, and; a Fr 13 risk assessment on both the SF, and sequential, integrated rapid sand-filtration and UV reactor (SF-UV). For the global two-step SF-UV results showed vulnerability to failure of some 40.4 % in overall operations over the long term with a safety margin (tolerance) of 10 %. Pre-treatment with SF removed SS with a mean of 1-log10 reduction (90 %). Subsequently, an overall removal of viable E. coli from the integrated SF-UV reactor was a 3-log10 reduction (99.9 %). This is because the efficacy of UV light to penetrate and inactivate viable E. coli, and other pathogens, is not inhibited by SS in the UV reactor. This showed that the physical removal of E. coli was accomplished by a properly functioning SF and subsequently disinfection was done by UV irradiation to inactivate viable E. coli in the water. Because the Regulatory standard for potable water is a 4-log10 reduction, it was concluded that flocculation and sedimentation prior to SF was needed to exploit these findings. Flocculation is a mixing process to increase particle size from submicroscopic microfloc to visible suspended particles prior to sedimentation and SF. This research will aid understanding of factors that contribute to UV failure and increase confidence in UV operations. It is original, and not incremental, work. Findings will be of immediate interest to risk analysts, water processors and designers of UV reactors for potable water production.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Chemical Engineering & Advanced Materials, 2017

Steady-state unit-operations are globally used in chemical engineering. Advantages include ease of control and a uniform product quality. Nonetheless there will be naturally occurring, random (stochastic) fluctuations about any steady-state ‘set’ value of a process parameter. Traditional chemical engineering does not explicitly take account of these. This is because, generally, fluctuation in one parameter appears to be off-set by change in another – with the process outcome remaining apparently steady. However Davey and co-workers (e.g. Davey et al., 2015; Davey, 2015 a; Zou and Davey, 2016; Abdul-Halim and Davey, 2016; Chandrakash and Davey, 2017 a) have shown these naturally occurring fluctuations can accumulate and combine unexpectedly to leverage significant impact and thereby make apparently well-running processes vulnerable to sudden and surprise failure. They developed a probabilistic and quantitative risk framework they titled Fr 13 (Friday 13th) to underscore the nature of these events. Significantly, the framework can be used in ‘second-tier’ studies for re-design to reduce vulnerability to failure. Here, this framework is applied for the first time to show how naturally occurring fluctuations in peak ambient temperature (T₀) and occupancy (room traffic flows) (Lᴛ) can impact heat transfers for conditioning of room air. The conditioning of air in large buildings, including hotels and hospitals, is globally important (Anon., 2012 a). The overarching aim is to quantitatively ‘use’ these fluctuations to develop a strategy for minimum energy. A justification is that methods that permit quantitative determination of reliable strategies for conditioning of air can lead to better energy use, with potential savings, together with reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG). Oddly many buildings do not appear to have a quantitative strategy to minimize conditioning heat transfers. Wide-spread default practice is to simply use an on-off strategy i.e. conditioning-on when the room is occupied and conditioning-off, when un-occupied. One alternative is an on-only strategy i.e. leave the conditioner run continuously. A logical and stepwise combined theoretical-and-experimental, approach was used as a research strategy. A search of the literature showed that work had generally focused on discrete, deterministic aspects and not on mathematically rigorous developments to minimise overall whole-of-building conditioning heat transfers. A preliminary steady-state convective model was therefore synthesized for conditioning air in a (hotel) room (4.5 x 5.0 x 2.5, m) in dry, S-E Australia during summer (20 ≤ T₀ ≤ 40, °C) to an auto-set room bulk temperature of 22 °C for the first time. This was solved using traditional, deterministic methods to show the alternative on-only strategy would use less electrical energy than that of the default on-off for Lᴛ > 36 % (Chu et al., 2016). Findings underscored the importance of the thermal capacitance of a building. The model was again solved using the probabilistic Fr 13 framework in which distributions to mimic fluctuations in T₀ and Lᴛ were (reasonably) assumed and a new energy risk factor (p) was synthesized such that all p > 0 characterized a failure in applied energy strategy (Chu and Davey, 2015). Predictions showed on-only would use less energy on 86.6 % of summer days. Practically, this meant that a continuous on-only strategy would be expected to fail in only 12 of the 90 days of summer, averaged over the long term. It was concluded the Fr 13 framework was an advance over the traditional, deterministic method because all conditioning scenarios that can practically exist are simulated. It was acknowledged however that: 1) a more realistic model was needed to account for radiative heat transfers, and; 2) to improve predictive accuracy, local distributions for T₀ and Lᴛ were needed. To address these: 1) the model was extended mathematically to account for radiative transfers from ambient to the room-interior, and; 2) distributions were carefully-defined based on extensive historical data for S-E Australia from, respectively, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) (Essendon Airport) and Clarion Suites Gateway Hotel (CSGH) (Melbourne) – a large (85 x 2-room suites) commercial hotel (latitude -37.819708, longitude 144.959936) – for T₀ and Lᴛ for 541 summer days (Dec. 2009 to Feb. 2015) (Chu and Davey, 2017 a). Predictions showed that radiative heat transfers were significant and highlighted that for Lᴛ ≥ 70 %, that is, all commercially viable occupancies, the on-only conditioning strategy would be expected to use less energy. Because findings predicted meaningful savings with the on-only strategy, ‘proof-of-concept’ experiments were carried out for the first time in a controlled-trial in-situ in CSGH over 10 (2 x 5 contiguous) days of summer with 24.2 ≤ T₀ ≤ 40.5, °C and 13.3 ≤ Lᴛ ≤ 100, %. Independent invoices (Origin Energy Ltd, or Simply Energy Ltd, Australia) (at 30 min intervals from nationally registered ‘smart’ power meters) for geometrically identical control and treated suites showed a mean saving of 18.9 % (AUD $2.23 per suite per day) with the on-only strategy, with a concomitant 20.7 % reduction (12.2 kg CO₂-e) in GHG. It was concluded that because findings supported model predictions, and because robust experimental SOPs had been established and agreed by CSGH, a large-scale validation test of energy strategies should be undertaken in the hotel. Commercial-scale testing over 77 contiguous days of summer (Jan. to Mar., 2016) was carried out in two, dimensionally-identical 2-room suites, with the same fit-out and (S-E) aspect, together with identical air-conditioner (8.1 kW) and nationally registered meters to automatically transmit contiguous (24-7) electrical use (at 30 min intervals) (n = 3,696) for the first time. Each suite (10.164 x 9.675, m floor plan) was auto-set to a bulk air temperature of 22 °C (Chu and Davey, 2017 b). In the treated suite the air-conditioner was operated on-only, whilst in the control it was left to wide-spread industry practice of on-off. The suites had (standard) single-glazed pane windows with heat-attenuating (fabric) internal curtains. Peak ambient ranged from 17.8 ≤ T₀ ≤ 39.1, °C. There were 32 days with recorded rainfall. The overall occupancy Lᴛ of both suites was almost identical at 69.7 and 71.2, % respectively for the treated and control suite. Importantly, this coincided with a typical business period for the CSGH hotel. Based on independent electrical invoices, results showed the treated suite used less energy on 47 days (61 %) of the experimental period, and significantly, GHG was reduced by 12 %. An actual reduction in electrical energy costs of AUD $0.75 per day (9 %) averaged over the period was demonstrated for the treated suite. It was concluded therefore that experimental findings directly confirmed the strategy hypothesis that continuous on-only conditioning will use less energy. Although the hypothesis appeared generalizable, and adaptable to a range of room geometries, it was acknowledged that a drawback was that extrapolation of results could not be reliably done because actual energy used would be impacted by seasons. The in-situ commercial-scale experimental study was therefore extended to encompass four consecutive seasons. The research aim was to provide sufficient experimental evidence (n = 13,008) to reliably test the generalizability of the on-only hypothesis (Chu and Davey, 2017 c). Ambient peak ranged from 9.8 ≤ T₀ ≤ 40.5, °C, with rainfall on 169 days (62 %). Overall, Lᴛ was almost identical at 71.9 and 71.7, % respectively, for the treated and control suite. Results based on independent electrical energy invoices showed the on-only strategy used less energy on 147 days (54 %) than the on-off. An overall mean energy saving of 2.68 kWh per suite per day (9.2 %) (i.e. AUD $0.58 or 8.0 %) with a concomitant reduction in indirect GHG of 3.16 kg CO₂-e was demonstrated. Extrapolated for the 85 x 2-room suites of the hotel, this amounted to a real saving of AUD $18,006 per annum - plus credit certificates that could be used to increase savings. Overall, it was concluded therefore the on-only conditioning hypothesis is generalizable to all seasons, and that there appears no barrier to adaption to a range of room geometries. Highly significantly, the methodology could be readily applied to existing buildings without capital outlays or increases in maintenance. A total of five (5) summative research presentations of results and findings were made to the General Manager and support staff of CSGH over the period to July 2017 inclusive (see Appendix I) that maintained active industry-engagement for the study. To apply these new findings, the synthesis of a computational algorithm in the form of a novel App (Anon., 2012 b; Davey, 2015 b) was carried out for the first time (Chu and Davey, 2017 d). The aim was to demonstrate an App that could be used practically to minimize energy in conditioning of dry air in buildings that must maintain an auto-set temperature despite the impact of fluctuations in T₀ and Lᴛ . The App was synthesized from the extensive experimental commercial-scale data and was applied to compute energy for both strategies from independently forecast T₀ and Lᴛ . Practical performance of the App was shown to be dependent on the accuracy of locally forecast T₀ and Lᴛ . Overall results predicted a saving of 2.62 kWh per 2-room suite per day ($47,870 per annum for CSGH) where accuracy of forecast T₀ is 77 % and Lᴛ is 99 %, averaged over the long term. A concomitant benefit was a predicted reduction greenhouse emissions of 3.1 kg CO₂-e per day. The App appears generalizable – and importantly it is not limited by any underlying heat-model. Its predictive accuracy can be refined with accumulation of experimental data for a range of geo-locations and building-types to make it globally applicable. It was concluded that the App is a useful new tool to minimize energy transfers in conditioning of room dry air in large buildings – and could be readily developed commercially 6. Importantly, it can be applied without capital outlays or additional maintenance cost and at both design and analysis stages. This research is original and not incremental work. Results of this research will be of immediate benefit to risk analysts, heat-design engineers, and owners and operators of large buildings.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Chemical Engineering, 2018

Being published as a celebration of the 60th anniversary of John von Neumann’s “Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata,” this handbook attempts to provide a unique reflection on the nature of computational economics and finance (CEF) in light of natural computationalism. We restructure CEF by including both nature-inspired computing and natural computing. This new framework allows us to have a view of CEF much broader than just the conventional algorithmic consideration. The book begins with a historical review of computational economics (CE), tracing its history far back to the era of analog computing. In these early days, advancements were mainly made using the idea of natural computing, and the subjects pursued by CE were the computing system as a whole, not just numerical computing. The handbook then is organized by distinguishing computing from computing systems. Six chapters (Chapters 2 to 7) are devoted to the former. They together present a review on the recent progresses in CE, as illustrated by the computation of rational expectations, general equilibrium, risk, and volatility. The subsequent 16 chapters are devoted to the computing-systemic view of CE, including natural-inspired computing (Chapters 8 to 12) and network, agent-based computing and neural computing (Chapters 13 to 23). In addition to providing alternative approaches to forecasting, investment strategies and risk management, etc., they enable us to have a 'natural' or more realistic description of the economy, starting from its decision makers; hence, market-design or policy-design issues involving different levels of the economy, be microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic, can be simultaneously addressed and coherently integrated. The handbook concludes with a chapter on what we may hope from CE by providing an in-depth review on the epistemological aspects of computation.

Abstract The Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), with the support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), has investigated the thermal performance of solar absorbers which are an integral yet indistinguishable part of a building’s roof. The first roof-integrated solar absorber (RISA) system was retrofitted into FSEC’S Flexible Roof Facility in Cocoa, Florida in September 1998. This “proof-of-concept” system uses the asphalt shingle roof surface and the plywood decking under the shingles as an unglazed solar absorber. The absorbed solar heat is then transferred to water that is circulated from a storage tank through polymer tubing attached to the underside of the roof decking. Data collected on this direct 3.9 m2 (42 ft2) solar system for a period of 12 months indicates that it was able to provide an average of 3.4 kWh per day of hot water energy to the storage tank under a 242 liters (64 gal) per day load. The RISA system’s average annual solar conversion efficiency was also determined to be 8 percent, with daily efficiencies reaching a maximum of 13 percent. In addition, a thermal performance equation has been determined to characterize the Phase 1 RISA system’s year-long efficiency under various ambient temperature, insolation, and wind speed conditions. As a follow-on to the proof-of-concept phase, two prototypes of approximately 4.5 m2 (48 ft2) surface area were constructed and submitted for FSEC thermal performance testing. These Phase 2 RISA prototypes differ in both roof construction and the position of the polymer tubing. One prototype is similar to the “proof-of-concept” RISA system as it employs an asphalt shingle roof surface and has the tubing mounted on the underside of the plywood decking. The second RISA prototype uses metal roofing panels over a plywood substrate and places the polymer tubing between the plywood decking and the metal roofing. Both prototypes were tested according to ASHRAE Standard 93 for determining the thermal performance of solar collectors. From performance data measured both outdoors and indoors using a solar Simulator, FR(ταe)’s were determined to be approximately 18% and 33% for the asphalt shingle and metal roof RISA prototypes, respectively. In addition, the coefficients of linear and second-order efficiency equations were also determined at various wind speeds. Finally, an FSEC thermal performance rating was calculated at the low and intermediate temperature levels. In summary, this paper is a first look at the thermal performance results for these “invisible” solar absorbers that use the actual roof surface of a building for solar heat collection.

Abstract As oil fields approach maturity, unwanted water production often starts negatively affecting oil recovery. Under these circumstances, operators may extend the well's useful life by plugging and abandoning (P&A) underperforming intervals and perforating a new formation. In Ecuador, this workflow is traditionally completed with wireline or tubing-conveyed perforating. An alternative method using enhanced coiled tubing (CT) is presented here; it enables a rigless and efficient workflow that leverages real-time downhole data for on-the-fly optimization. The new workflow relies on CT-conveyed technologies without requiring any additional conveyance methods. CT delivered four different services to initiate the abandonment by anchoring a 7-in. cast-iron bridge plug, complete the abandonment with a low-viscosity cement plug, simulate wellbore dynamics during nitrogen pumping to generate the required underbalance conditions for perforating, and perforate with a 40-ft ballistic payload of 4 1/2-in. guns. Coupled with real-time downhole telemetry, the enhanced CT workflow provided critical downhole conditions, including fluid levels, accurate depth placement and control, bridge plug setting confirmation, underbalance conditions, perforating head activation and detonation, and post-perforation inflow monitoring. Compared with traditional methods, the workflow with enhanced CT introduces several benefits toward completing P&A of old intervals and perforation of new ones. These benefits include enabling a rigless workover, eliminating the need and cost of a workover rig, reducing operational duration by 13%, and potentially reducing asset footprint and field crews by 95% and 70%, respectively. Elimination of a workover rig reduces environmental impact and the number of personnel on location (i.e., risk). The workflow also extends both reach and efficiency of the service in horizontal wells, enables underbalanced perforation, and delivers actionable real-time downhole data. These data elevate traditional P&A workflows and create a step change in efficiency. First, they allow tracking key downhole parameters that help guarantee a reliable operation of each of the tools and services. Second, they shed insights as to the actual downhole conditions throughout the intervention to enable the operator and the field crews to make on-the-fly decisions to deliver a safe and optimal service. Those decisions may include fine-tuning the prescribed treatment or extending the scope of the intervention by leveraging the CT's pump-through capabilities to maximize well performance and meet, or exceed, the operator's objectives. The innovative combination of real-time telemetry with abandonment and perforating technologies proved a step change in operational efficiency and range, fueled by the quantity and quality of data recoded during the operation. This case study also marks the first documented perforation with 4 1/2-in. guns with fiber optic real-time downhole telemetry. Furthermore, the integrated, rigless solution provides operators with an opportunity to extend their workover activity pipeline and free up their workover fleet for other activities.

ABSTRACT Background: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) is the leading cause of death worldwide and a serious threat to health in low and middle income countries. This can be prevented by early detection and monitoring of NCDs risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the contextual effect of the integrated health post on the use of non- communicable disease screening service. Subjects and Method: A cross sectional study was carried out at 25 integrated health posts (posbindu) in Kapuas Hulu, West Kalimantan, Indonesia, from August to October 2019. A sample of 200 study subjects was selected by fixed disease sampling. The dependent variable was the use of NCD screening service. The independent variables were subjective norm, health information, family support, cadre support, health beha-vior, health status, attitude, and intention. The data were collected by questionnaire and analyzed by a multiple multilevel logistic regression run on Stata 13. Results: The use of NCD screening service increased with supportive subjective norm (b= o.88; 95% CI= 0.01 to 1.75; p= 0.045), high health information exposure (b= 1.10; 95% CI= 0.18 to 2.02; p= 0.019), strong family support (b= 0.94; 95% CI= 0.05 to 1.83; p= 0.037), strong cadre support (b= 0.87; 95% CI= 0.01 to 1.73; p= 0.047), health behavior (b= 1.39; 95% CI= 0.49 to 2.30; p= 0.002), had NCD (b= 1.30; 95% CI= 0.19 to 2.41; p= 0.021), positive attitude (b= 0.98; 95% CI= 0.12 to 1.84; p= 0.025), and strong intention (b= 1.14; 95% CI= 0.26 to 2.01; p= 0.010). Posbindu had negligible contextual effect on the use of NCD screening service with intra-class correlation (ICC)= 7.1%. Conclusion: The use of NCD screening service increases with supportive subjective norm, high health information exposure, strong family support, strong cadre support, health behavior, had NCD, positive attitude, and strong intention. Posbindu has negligible contextual effect on the use of NCD screening service. Keywords: non-communicable disease, screening service, integrated health post Correspondence: Riza Firdaus. Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutarmi 36A, Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia. Email: rizafirdaus88@yahoo.-co.id. Mobile: 08565056311. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26911/the7thicph.04.38

Abstract Sand production is a common issue, especially in a depleting field as water production commences, and sand strength weakens. Conventional sand management focuses on downhole sand exclusion from the wellbore either through completion design or production reduction by choke optimisation as passive sand control. The objective of the paper is to share the company's journey in sand management in collaboration of various supporting units. The Holistic Sand Management methodological process adopts a 5 keys action plan, namely: Establishment of dedicated focus sand team with multidisciplinary support covering surface and subsurface activities Situational Assessment to develop baseline in sand management preparedness in each field, identifying gaps and developing an intervention plan Development and utilisation of an in-house erosion prediction tool, Continuous upskilling in sand management best practices, and Technology review and active pilot testing utilising digital enhancement to assist in sand management activities. Establishment of a dedicated and collaborative focus group, Integrated Sand Management (ISM) team in the centre which is replicated at the region as Regional Sand Team (RST), has allowed for continuous communication on sand management matters. Situational Assessment consists of 13 integrated subsurface and surface elements to evaluate a field capability to manage sand production. These 13 elements include sand management philosophy and organisation setup, sand prediction, sand control design, sand sampling and monitoring as well as surface sand handling and disposal. Findings from the assessment are used to gauge the field's readiness and ability to manage sand operation and develop gaps closure plan to achieve the optimum holistic sand management. The Sand Erosional and Transportation (SET) tool, an in-house developed tool, is used to evaluate sand erosion and deposition risk in the production system. The tool is used extensively to generate a safe operating envelope for sand producing well during open-up and continuous production. This has allowed the company to shift from limiting production up to a specific sand concentration to erosion risk-based approach, which in turn creates production optimization opportunities. Regular and continuous upskilling sessions ensure the frontline operations are updated and abreast with best practices in sand management. In addition, the ISM team reviews and leverages on latest technology, actively organises pilot test at a selected site supported with digital enhancement to assist in sand management activities. The application of a Holistic Sand Management methodology is seen to reduce erosion related Loss of Primary Containment (LOPC), sustain production, and minimise unplanned deferment. However, this is just the beginning and the battle in sand operation will continue to be very challenging in balancing between production while ensuring asset integrity. The methodology is a novel approach for the company with the formation of a dedicated and collaborative team spearheading sand management initiatives which include situation assessment for gaps identification supported by in-house erosion modelling tool.

Aim/Purpose: To measure the change in team skills resulting from team projects in professional and graduate school courses, a pilot study was conducted among students in two courses in a graduate school of business and one in the pharmacy school of the same institution of higher learning. This pilot study evaluated (a) students receiving training and practice in working as part of a classroom team were able to translate the formal training into the belief they had improved routine team interactions and experienced benefits from the intervention, and (b) determine whether changes in perceived team skills acquired by graduate business students differed from those of pharmacy school students. Background: This pilot study examined the usefulness of adding a teamwork skills module imported from a graduate school of business to increasing team skills in a pharmacy curriculum. Methodology: Thirty-five students (22 in a graduate school of business and 13 in a school of pharmacy) took a survey comprised of 15 questions designed on a 5-point scale to self-evaluate their level of skill in working in a team. They were then exposed to a seminar on team skills, which included solving a case that required teamwork. After this intervention the students repeated the survey. Contribution: As the pharmacy profession moves to be more integrated as part of inter-professional healthcare teams , pharmacy schools are finding it necessary to teach students how to perform on teams where many disciplines are represented equally. The core of the pharmacy profession is shifting from dependence on the scientific method to one where team skills are also important. Findings: The small size of the pilot sample limited significance except in the greater importance of positive personal interaction for business students. Directional findings supported the hypothesis that the business culture allows risk-taking on more limited information and more emphasis on creating a positive environment than the pharmacy culture given its dependence on scientific method. It remains moot as to whether directly applying a teaching intervention from a business curriculum can effectively advance the team skills of pharmacy students. Recommendations For Practitioners: Educators in professional schools such as pharmacy and medicine may find curricular guidance to increase emphasis on learning teamwork skills. Recommendations for Researchers: Researchers are encouraged to explore cross-disciplinary exchanges of teaching core business skills. Impact on Society : The question is posed that as pharmacy schools and the pharmacy profession integrate more into the business of pharmacy whether this difference will close. Future Research: A full study is planned with the same design and larger sample sizes and expanding to include students in medical, as well as pharmacy classes.