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1
GARCIA, LONDONO CAROLINA. "Mountain risk management: integrated people centred early warning system (IEWS) as a risk reduction strategy, Northern Italy." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/19795.
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A methodology to integrate early warning systems and emergency plans has been elaborated in the framework of the European project Mountain Risks. This methodology, focused on prevention as a key element for disaster risk reduction, was partially applied in the Mountain Consortium of Municipalities Valtellina di Tirano, northern Italy, an area recurrently affected by several mountain hazards.
Results indicate that in the study zone, several valuable risk reduction efforts have been made in the past, including the development of a comprehensive emergency plan. However the tendency is still to direct efforts towards emergency response rather than prevention. Taking into account the current state of disaster management and risk reduction initiatives in the study area, it was decided that the methodology that best fits the present conditions would be a non structural approach, such as an Integrated People Centred Early Warning System (IEWS). The aim of the IEWS is not only to increase the level of awareness and preparedness of the community and decrease its vulnerability, but also to strengthen institutional collaboration, in particular at the local level, in order to assure sustainability of the efforts in the long term. All the EWS (Early Warning System) components are present in the study area, but they display several shortcomings, are individually developed, have little structure and are poorly linked. This lack of integration of the components may render these EWS efforts ineffective. To alleviate this, several actions are proposed to integrate the different risk management strategies into an IEWS (Integrated community based Early Warning System) with a interdisciplinary approach. In addition, in order to create a comprehensive disaster management plan it is necessary to combine those IEWS strategies with the emergency plan already existing in the study area.
This thesis presents some results derived from the process of designing and initially implementing an IEWS. However, more work is necessary to complete the implementation of a sustainable IEWS at Valtellina di Tirano. The design of the IEWS involved several phases, including hazard and risk assessment, analysis of the legal framework and also the application of an extensive social survey to evaluate the levels of perceived risk, awareness, preparedness and information needs of the community. The IEWS also includes the development of educational activities to increase preparedness. These activities were designed by an multidisciplinary group composed of scientists, local leaders and local authorities based on the results of the survey. The activities include an education and communication campaign addressed to the local community and practitioner stakeholders.
Results of the survey show that, despite having good knowledge of previous flooding and mass movements, the population of the study area have low levels of perceived risks and preparedness. However, the population also is interested in being informed about natural hazards, mitigation activities, risk management and emergency procedures. People express willingness to participate in communication campaigns to learn how to be better prepared to react in case of a future event. This include learning about appropriate mitigation activities they can perform themselves to be less vulnerable.
The presented thesis also includes a conceptual contribution which describes some of the difficulties and challenges of developing integrated risk reduction strategies with a multidisciplinary approach, together with some recommendations to overcome them and to improve the current risk management situation of the study area.
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Al, Hmoudi Abdulla. "Developing a framework for integrated community-centered early warning system to enhance disaster resilience in UAE." Thesis, University of Salford, 2016. http://usir.salford.ac.uk/38879/.
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The impacts and costs of natural disasters on people, properties and environment is often severe when they occur on a large scale or when not prepared for. Factors such as impacts of climate change, urban growth, poor planning to mention a few, have continued to significantly increase the frequencies and impacts of natural disasters across the world, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) inclusive. While the frequencies of natural disasters might not be controlled easily, the need for more effective early warning systems has become highly important. In recent years, existing researches and international organisations such as the United Nations (UN) have identified lack of Early Warning System (EWS) and the lack of integrated approach to disaster response as one of the reasons many deaths occur when natural disasters happen especially in developing countries. For instance, some communities in the (UAE) have suffered the impact of natural disasters in recent years due to lack of EWS deployment and lack of community knowledge of risks of natural disasters. These problems emphasises the importance of this research which aims to decrease the vulnerability of communities in the Emirates by developing a framework for integrated early warning systems in community in order to increase response capabilities against the risk of natural disasters in the United Arab Emirates. This research used case study, semi-structure interview and questionnaire techniques to investigate deployment of EWS and current practice of EWS in the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Fujairah. The effectiveness of the EWS in the UAE was evaluated international best practice in EWS and ten principles which guides EWS deployment in seven countries. While this influenced the collection of secondary data, it also influenced the collection of primary data through semi-structured interviews with 12 strategic officers from organisations involved emergency, crisis and disaster management in the UAE from the Emirates of Fujairah and Abu Dhabi. Questionnaires were also administered to a total of 1,080 respondents from the two emirates. The research outcomes show that EWS in Abu Dhabi and Fujairah lacked the essential elements of EWS. The results also emphasised the need to promptly develop the specific elements which are lacking and to improve the ones which were ineffective. The conclusion of this research have emphasised that community-centred EWS can be applied in the UAE, but can only be effectively applied by using the framework developed in this research which captures areas for further development and areas of improvement.
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Ferreira, Nogueira Douglas. "Mobile-Based Early WarningSystems in Mozambique. : An exploratory study on the viability to integrate Cell Broadcast into disaster mitigation routines." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för informatik och media, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-378978.
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Mozambique is one of the countries most affected by natural hazards in the world. Therefore it can benefit greatly from enhancements on its early warning system. Cell broadcast, which is a technology able to send simultaneous alert messages to all mobile phones in a geographical area has gained attention of emergency authorities since various catastrophes in the years 2000’s and increasing diffusion of the mobile network. This research has looked into the disaster risk management routines in Mozambique, interviewing relevant institutions, to identify the currently in use early warning system and analyze the circuit of information from detecting a hazard until the transmission of alert messages to the population. The goal of this research has been to identify how alert messages are sent to the population and, based on currently available infrastructure, analyze the possibilities to use Cell Broadcast to target alerts to all subscribers on specific geographic zones. It has been identified that the country already uses a solution that sends SMS to a list of phone numbers registered in a database. Nonetheless, telecommunication operators in the country are willing to cooperate with emergency authorities to design a solution in which Cell Broadcast can be used to strategically target alerts to subscribers at designated areas of risk. In this way, enabling enhanced accuracy and efficiency of the public alert system in Mozambique, with reduced time between detection and the simultaneously delivery of public alert messages to the entire population or only to people located on relevant geographic zones. Furthermore, the results also allowed to speculate on the viability of automated solutions, which can be used in combination to the enhancements that Cell Broadcast can bring to disaster risk management routines.
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Suokas, Anu Kristiina. "Early warning systems and the organisational dynamics of standardisation." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/8937.
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This thesis adopts a combined sociological and health services research approach to examining the implementation of standardised risk assessment tools, ‘early warning systems’, in medical wards. The data collection involved, over a three-year period from 2006 to 2008, ethnographic observations and 37 semi-structured interviews with staff in four UK hospitals that participated in the Health Foundation’s Safer Patients Initiative. Critical illness in hospitalised patients can be a predictable event preceded by observable physiological abnormalities, but research suggests that general wards may experience difficulty in detecting and responding to patient deterioration. As a result, growing numbers of acute hospitals are implementing early warning systems designed to detect and respond to early signs of patient deterioration. These systems involve track-and-trigger and rapid response mechanisms which seek to achieve accountability for standard risk management practices among doctors and nurses. The study found that accountability in relation to bedside observations was constituted through a combination of hierarchical accountability for fulfilling formal responsibilities, and horizontal accountability which encouraged sensible use of formal rules and responsiveness to calls for help and assistance. Although staff views on early warning systems were very positive, the findings also suggested that these systems may lead to undesirable practice and fail to manage certain aspects of risk. Problems identified with early warning systems included false reassurance, unnecessary alerts and ritualistic compliance, which could create unnecessary work and cause discomfort to patients. Among staff, reciprocal senses of obligation and responsibility helped to manage such problems, but could be obstructed by poor team work. The thesis suggests that focus on the alert system overshadowed accountability for the day-to-day management of early warning systems within teams. Managing the mundane may help both organisations and their staff to prevent and prepare for emergency situations, and reduce the fear of being implicated in poor management of risk.
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Boyraz, Mustafa Fatih. "An Empirical Study On Early Warning Systems For Banking Sector." Master's thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614265/index.pdf.
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Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for banking sectors are used to measure occurrence risks of banking crises, generally observed with a rundown of bank deposits and widespread failures of financial institutions. In countries with a small number of banks, for example Turkey with 48 banks (BDDK, 2011), every bank may be considered to have a systematic importance since the failure of any individual bank may carry a potential threat to lead to a banking crisis. Taking into account this fact the present study focuses on EWSs in Turkey. Since there is no single correct EWS to apply to all cases, in this study, 300 models were constructed and tested to find models as accurate as possible by using a trial-and-error process and by searching optimal feature subset or classifier methods. Empirical results indicate that prediction accuracy did not increase significantly while we got closer to the actual occurrence of bankruptcy. An important finding of the study was that trends of financial ratios were very useful in the prediction of bank failures. Instead of failures as a result of instant shocks, the banks'failures followed through a path: first a downward movement affected the efficiency of the banks'
officers and the quality of management structure measured with "
Activity Ratios"
, then the profitability of the banks measured with "
Profit Ratios"
declined. At last, the performance and the stability of banks'
earnings stream measured with "
Income-Expenditure Structure Ratios"
and the level and quality of the banks'
capital base, the end line of defense, measured with "
Capital Ratios"
. At the end of study, we proposed an ensemble model which produced probability ratios for the success rates of the banks. The proposed model achieved a very high success rate for the banks we considered.
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Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo. "Towards Climate Based Early Warning and Response Systems for Malaria." Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Epidemiologi och global hälsa, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-130169.
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Background: Great strides have been made in combating malaria, however, the indicators in sub Saharan Africa still do not show promise for elimination in the near future as malaria infections still result in high morbidity and mortality among children. The abundance of the malaria-transmitting mosquito vectors in these regions are driven by climate suitability. In order to achieve malaria elimination by 2030, strengthening of surveillance systems have been advocated. Based on malaria surveillance and climate monitoring, forecasting models may be developed for early warnings. Therefore, in this thesis, we strived to illustrate the use malaria surveillance and climate data for policy and decision making by assessing the association between weather variability (from ground and remote sensing sources) and malaria mortality, and by building malaria admission forecasting models. We further propose an economic framework for integrating forecasts into operational surveillance system for evidence based decisionmaking and resource allocation. Methods: The studies were based in Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya. Lagged association of rainfall and temperature with malaria mortality was modeled using general additive models, while distributed lag non-linear models were used to explore relationship between remote sensing variables, land surface temperature(LST), normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) and rainfall on weekly malaria mortality. General additive models, with and without boosting, were used to develop malaria admissions forecasting models for lead times one to three months. We developed a framework for incorporating forecast output into economic evaluation of response strategies at different lead times including uncertainties. The forecast output could either be an alert based on a threshold, or absolute predicted cases. In both situations, interventions at each lead time could be evaluated by the derived net benefit function and uncertainty incorporated by simulation. Results: We found that the environmental factors correlated with malaria mortality with varying latencies. In the first paper, where we used ground weather data, the effect of mean temperature was significant from lag of 9 weeks, with risks higher for mean temperatures above 250C. The effect of cumulative precipitation was delayed and began from 5 weeks. Weekly total rainfall of more than 120 mm resulted in increased risk for mortality. In the second paper, using remotely sensed data, the effect of precipitation was consistent in the three areas, with increasing effect with weekly total rainfall of over 40 mm, and then declined at 80 mm of weekly rainfall. NDVI below 0.4 increased the risk of malaria mortality, while day LST above 350C increased the risk of malaria mortality with shorter lags for high LST weeks. The lag effect of precipitation was more delayed for precipitation values below 20 mm starting at week 5 while shorter lag effect for higher precipitation weeks. The effect of higher NDVI values above 0.4 were more delayed and protective while shorter lag effect for NDVI below 0.4. For all the lead times, in the malaria admissions forecasting modelling in the third paper, the boosted regression models provided better prediction accuracy. The economic framework in the fourth paper presented a probability function of the net benefit of response measures, where the best response at particular lead time corresponded to the one with the highest probability, and absolute value, of a net benefit surplus. Conclusion: We have shown that lagged relationship between environmental variables and malaria health outcomes follow the expected biological mechanism, where presentation of cases follow the onset of specific weather conditions and climate variability. This relationship guided the development of predictive models showcased with the malaria admissions model. Further, we developed an economic framework connecting the forecasts to response measures in situations with considerable uncertainties. Thus, the thesis work has contributed to several important components of early warning systems including risk assessment; utilizing surveillance data for prediction; and a method to identifying cost-effective response strategies. We recommend economic evaluation becomes standard in implementation of early warning system to guide long-term sustainability of such health protection programs.
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Valko, Ivan. "Development of physical techniques for hydrate monitoring and early warning systems." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/2455.
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One of the challenges that the petroleum industry faces is to ensure unimpeded flow of hydrocarbons. During production, transportation and processing, there can be free water in the produced fluid, and/or changes in temperature and pressure can lead to water condensation causing ice and/or hydrates formation. Gas hydrates pose serious flow assurance, economic and safety concerns. Chemical inhibitors are widely used to reduce the risks associated with hydrates. However, the upstream injection of hydrate inhibitors is generally based on thermodynamic model predictions and estimations of the worst conditions without much downstream measurements. This thesis presents a research work in which a number of techniques were investigated with the ultimate aim to mitigate hydrate risks during hydrocarbon recovery. Hydrate Monitoring Techniques are where the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) could be determined by testing downstream samples. Spectroscopy, dielectric permittivity, and freezing point depression methods were experimentally examined. A novel pseudo concentration approach was created as a result of this research work. This approach is more reliable and robust than the historically developed correlation, since it takes into account the pressure, hydrate structure and inhibitor type effects. Spectroscopy, dialectic permittivity set-ups and a freezing point prototype device based on Peltier heat pumps have been designed, built and tested. Hydrate Early Warning Techniques are where the hydrate formation could be detected based on water memory phenomenon. This phenomenon suggests that sampled fluid under specific conditions can carry remnant molecular structure related to hydrate formation if it had taken place. Spectroscopy, onset of ice formation and onset of hydrate formation were investigated. During this work, a multiple probe freezing apparatus and hydrate mini-rig prototypes have been designed, built, and tested. These techniques can provide technical measures for hydrate monitoring and early warning, helping to lessen the risk of pipeline blockages as well as to minimise the amount of chemicals required to inhibit any hydrate formation, hence improve the production economics and reduce the impact on the environment. Moreover, the investigated techniques show a potential to be deployed in Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems widely used in the petroleum industry for reservoir/production monitoring and management.
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Kimmel, Randall K. "Can Statistics Based Early Warning Systems Detect Problem Banks Before Markets?" Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1309322520.
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Dawood, Mary Hany A. K. "The challenge of predicting financial crises : modelling and evaluating early warning systems." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2016. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/6617/.
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The main purpose of constructing "Early Warning Systems" (EWSs) for financial crises is to provide policy makers with some lead time to take pre-emptive actions that would help avoid, or at least mitigate, the damages of an approaching crisis. Accordingly, this study empirically evaluates and compares the effectiveness of the econometric models developed so far to construct EWSs. In addition, a more accurate (dynamic-recursive) forecasting technique is developed to generate better out-of-sample warning signals for currency, banking, and sovereign debt crises in the different regions of the world. The empirical analysis shows that the predictive performance of the EWS is significantly improved when using simple pooled models that account for the heterogeneity of the signalling indicators across the different regions. Moreover, including the entire crisis period in the sample outperforms the more common practice of dropping post-crisis-onset periods or using a multinomial specification of the crisis variable. In addition, the findings reveal that our dynamic-recursive technique provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts for logit models. Finally, the dynamic signal extraction approach is recommended for policy makers who value avoiding financial crises at all costs, while the binomial logit model is more suitable for less conservative policy makers who consider the economic and social costs of false alarms.
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Ryan, Zola. "Establishment and evaluation of a livestock early warning system for Laikipia, Kenya." Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2261.
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A new zone was added to the existing Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), which is a subproject of the USAID Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program. LEWS uses the PHYGROW model and satellite imagery of weather and vegetation to estimate the availability of forage to livestock and wildlife. Drought advisories are then distributed to governments, development organizations, and pastoralists via the Internet, satellite radios, and written reports.
The Laikipia zone was established in 2001 to provide drought early warning for the arid pastoral rangelands of the Ewaso Ngiro ecosystem in the Laikipia and southern Samburu Districts, Kenya. Field verification of PHYGROW estimates of standing crop was conducted in 2002. In addition, research was conducted to determine the ability of the warning system to provide significant advance notice of emerging drought conditions.
Results of this study indicate that LEWS is capable of providing accurate estimates of forage availability on East African rangelands. There is also evidence that the use of LEWS advisories could accelerate drought response by pastoralists as much as three to seven weeks.
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Petri, Giani. "MODELO DE DADOS DE UMA BASE DE CONHECIMENTO PARA INTERNET EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS." Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, 2013. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/5405.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorThe popularization of the Internet has provided an increase in the number of web applications that work with critical information. Parallel to this, attacks that exploit the vulnerabilities of these applications has also grown. This scenario has stimulated companies to invest in tools to monitor their network infrastructure in order to detect malicious activity. One of the main tools used by companies to monitor their network infrastructures and identifying attacks are Intrusion Detection Systems. However, due to expansion of the volume of data in computer networks, these systems are becoming limited. In contrast, researchers have explored the construction of Internet Early Warning Systems to monitor malicious activities on the Internet. This work proposes a data model of a knowledge base for Internet EarlyWarning Systems. The model represents the data of different aspects of the network with a focus on events related to intrusion detection, such as data of alerts generated by intrusion detection systems, information on response measures, traffic statistics and signatures of known attacks. A case study on a real network infrastructure demonstrates the applicability of the data model of knowledge base and identifies the advantages of its use. Furthermore, the data stored in the knowledge base potentializes the construction of situational awareness of monitored environment, directing the activities of the security team and helping in the decision process responses to potential attacks.
A popularização da Internet tem proporcionado um aumento no número de aplicações web que trabalham com informações críticas. Em paralelo a isso, os ataques que exploram as vulnerabilidades dessas aplicações também tem crescido. Esse cenário tem estimulado as empresas a investir em ferramentas para monitorar sua infraestrutura de rede, visando a detecção de atividades mal-intencionadas. Uma das principais ferramentas utilizadas pelas empresas para o monitoramento de suas infraestruturas de redes e identificação de ataques são os Sistemas de Detecção de Intrusão. No entanto, devido a expansão do volume de dados que trafegam nas redes de computadores, estes sistemas estão tornando-se limitados. Em contrapartida, pesquisadores têm explorado a construção de Internet Early Warning Systems para o monitoramento de atividades maliciosas na Internet. Este trabalho propõe a modelagem de dados de uma base de conhecimento para Internet Early Warning Systems. O modelo representa os dados de diferentes aspectos da rede com foco em eventos relacionados a detecção de intrusão, tais como: dados de alertas gerados por sistemas de detecção de intrusão, informações sobre medidas de respostas, estatísticas do tráfego e assinaturas de ataques já conhecidos. Um estudo de caso em uma infraestrutura de rede real demonstra a aplicabilidade do modelo de dados da base de conhecimento e permite identificar as vantagens de sua utilização. Além disso, os dados armazenados na base de conhecimento potencializam a construção de uma consciência situacional do ambiente monitorado, direcionando as atividades da equipe de segurança e auxiliando no processo de decisão de respostas a ataques em potencial.
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Brundage, Amber. "Middle and High School Predictors of Off-Track Status in Early Warning Systems." Scholar Commons, 2013. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4644.
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It is important to identify students at-risk for school non-completion as early as possible. Research has demonstrated that data sources such as teacher nomination and individual demographic characteristics are less accurate identification methods of students who are at-risk for not graduating on-time. Instead, the use of early warning systems (EWS) based upon research validated indicators that reliably identify students who are Off-track, or at-risk for not graduating on-time, has been a promising approach. Questions remain though about the relationship of Off-track Status at an earlier time point to Off-track Status at a later time point as well as the relationship between a variety of individual and school-level predictors and Off-track Status. The purpose of this study was to examine student patterns of Off-track (for graduation) Status at two time points each year from sixth grade through the end of 10th grade as determined by a district-implemented EWS. In addition, this study examined factors that were hypothesized to contribute to students becoming off-track for high school graduation and the earliest time that those factors demonstrated influence on an Off-track Status. Individual (e.g., SES Level, Third-Grade Reading scores, etc.) and school-level predictors (e.g., School Rates of Discipline, School Promoting Power, etc.) of Off-track Status were collected through archival data on a cohort of 4,268 sixth-grade students across 15 middle schools and 13 high schools from the 2007/2008 school-year through the 2011/2012 school-year. Significant relationships between individual-level variables (SES Level, Hispanic racial/ethnic designation, Grade Point Average, Office Discipline Referrals and Previous Off-track Status) were found. Implications for research to practice include a focus on early intervention of Off-track Status students and the inclusion of additional variables in a middle and high school EWS. An additional implication for practice is the local customization of EWS through further analyses of predictor sensitivity and specificity as well as examination of specific school-level contributions to increased numbers of Off-track Status students which would allow for refinement of EWS specific to a given population and provide information on schools that may need additional resources to support students.
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Goosen, Ryno Johannes. "Sense, signal and software : a sensemaking analysis of meaning in early warning systems." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96132.
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Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis considers the contribution that Karl Weick’s notion of sensemaking can make to an improved understanding of weak signals, cues, warning analysis, and software within early warning systems. Weick’s sensemaking provides a framework through which the above mentioned concepts are discussed and analysed. The concepts of weak signals, early warning systems, and Visual Analytics are investigated from within current business and formal intelligence viewpoints. Intelligence failure has been a characteristic of events such as 9/11, the recent financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the so-called Arab Spring. Popular methodologies such as early warning analysis, weak signal analysis and environmental scanning employed within both the business and government sphere failed to provide adequate early warning in many of these events. These failures warrant renewed attention as to what improvements can be made and how new technology can enhance early warning analysis. Chapter One is introductory and states the research question, methodology, and delimits the thesis. Chapter Two sets the scene by investigating current conceptions of the main constructs. Chapter Three explores Weick’s theory of sensemaking, and provides the analytical framework against which these concepts are then analysed in Chapter Four. The emphasis is directed towards the extent of integration of frames within the analysis phase of early warning systems and how frames may be incorporated within the theoretical foundation of Visual Analytics to enhance warning systems. The findings of this thesis suggest that Weick’s conceptualisation of sensemaking provide conceptual clarity to weak signal analysis in that Weick’s “seed” metaphor, representing the embellishment and elaboration of cues, epitomizes the progressive nature of weak signals. The importance of Weick’s notion of belief driven sensemaking, in specific the role of expectation in the elaboration of frames, and discussed and confirmed by various researchers in different study areas, is a core feature underlined in this thesis. The centrality of the act of noticing and the effect that framing and re-framing has thereon is highlighted as a primary notion in the process of not only making sense of warning signals but identifying them in the first place. This ties in to the valuable contribution Weick’s sensemaking makes to understanding the effect that a specification has on identifying transients and signals in the resulting visualization in Visual Analytic software.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis ondersoek hoe Karl Weick se konsep van singewing ons insig teenoor swak seine, tekens, waarskuwingsanalise en sagteware binne vroeë waarskuwingstelsels verbeter. Weick se bydrae verskaf ‘n raamwerk waarbinne hierdie konsepte geanaliseer en ondersoek kan word. Die konsep van swak seine, vroeë-waarskuwing en visuele analise word binne huidige besigheidsuitgangspunte, en die formele intelligensie arena ondersoek. Die mislukking van intelligensie is kenmerkend van gebeure soos 9/11, die onlangse finansiёle krisis wat deur die ondergang van Lehman Brothers ingelei is, en die sogenaamde “Arab Spring”. Hierdie gebeure het ‘n wêreldwye opskudding op ekonomiese en politiese vlak veroorsaak. Moderne metodologieё soos vroeë waarskuwingsanalise, swaksein-analise en omgewingsaanskouing binne regerings- en besigheidsverband het duidelik in hul doelstelling misluk om voortydig te waarsku oor hierdie gebeurtenisse. Dit is juis hierdie mislukkings wat dit noodsaaklik maak om meer aandag te skenk aan hierdie konsepte, asook nuwe tegnologie wat dit kan verbeter. Hoofstuk Een is inleidend en stel die navorsingsvraagstuk, doelwitte en afbakkening. Hoofstuk Twee lê die fondasie van die tesis deur ‘n ondersoek van die hoof konsepte. Hoofstuk Drie verskaf die teoretiese raamwerk, die van Weick se singewingsteorie, waarteen die hoof konsepte in Hoofstuk Twee ondersoek word in Hoofstuk Vier. Klem word gelê op die diepte van integrasie en die toepassing van raamwerke in die analisefase van vroeё waarskuwingstelsels en hoe dit binne die teoretiese beginsels van visuele analise geïnkorporeer word. Die bevindinge van hierdie tesis spreek die feit aan dat Weick se konsepsualisering van singewing konseptuele helderheid rakende die begrip “swakseine” verskaf. In hierdie verband verteenwoordig Weick se “saad”- metafoor die samewerking en uitbouing van seine en “padpredikante” wat die progressiewe aard van swakseine weerspieёl. Die kernbeskouing van hierdie tesis is die belangrikheid van Weick se geloofsgedrewesingewing, veral die uitkoms van die bou van raamwerke asook die bespreking hiervan deur verskeie navorsers. Die belangrikheid van die aksie om seine op te merk, en die effek wat dit op die herbeskouing van raamwerke het, asook die raaksien daarvan in die eerste plek word beklemtoon. Laasgenoemde dui ook aan tot watter mate Weick se singewingsteorie ‘n bydrae maak tot visuele analise veral in ons begrip van die gevolg wat data of inligtingspesifikasie het op die identifisering van seine en onsinnighede in visualisering binne visuele analise-sagteware.
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Taiby, Awrang. "WIDEBAND, LOW-LOSS, HIGH-POWER HANDLING DIPLEXER FOR AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING (AEW) SYSTEMS." DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2012. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/745.
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Airborne Early Warning (AEW) systems rely on rotary couplers (RC) to interface rotating antenna elements on aircraft exteriors with stationary onboard systems. The demand for additional channels in new generation AEW systems increases the complexity of rotary couplers significantly. On the other hand, if signals in separate frequency bands use the same channel, existing AEW designs could incorporate additional channels with only minor changes. Passive RF diplexers can accomplish this task. Required characteristics include low-loss (<0.5dB), wideband (4.4:1), and high-power (>6kW) handling capability. Two diplexer candidates are synthesized and characterized with the aid of a commercial circuit simulation package that includes a 3D full-wave EM solver. A semi-lumped coaxial and a digital elliptic diplexer are proposed, both of which have theoretically low-loss and acceptable VSWR characteristics. However, only the latter diplexer meets operating requirements without the excessive tuning or analysis required by the former. Further studies of the semi-lumped diplexer characteristics may make it useful in other applications.
This thesis defines diplexer design goals, provides a brief introduction to filter theory, and compares performance characteristics of the semi-lumped and digital elliptic diplexers. Simulation results for both designs demonstrate that the digital elliptic diplexer is an optimum solution.
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TINELLI, SILVIA. "Monitoring, early detection and warning systems for contamination events in water distribution networks." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Pavia, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1214885.
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In the chain of water distribution, the network is the most complex element to be analyzed and managed to deliver safe water to the users due to the vast dispersion of the potential contamination spots.
For this reason, some countries, especially those most sensible to the terrorist attacks (USA, Israel, Europe) have already started research programs aimed at the development of an Online Water Quality Monitoring (OWQM) and of an Early Warning Systems (EWSs). Both of them are based on sensors installed in selected nodes of the network and are capable of quickly detecting contamination events.
The implementation of EWSs paves the way to new interesting research topics, with particular reference to the technological aspects, to the employment of expert systems for the interpretation of the detected data, and to the definition of modeling tools for the design and management of the monitoring and alarm systems.
The Thesis focuses on some of these aspects, with the aim of contributing to a partial systematization of the knowledge required for the design and management of the aforementioned systems.
This Thesis can be divided into two parts.
The former part of the Thesis (Chapters 1, 2 and 3) describes the general issues and the approach normally adopted in choosing the water parameters to be monitored.
The latter part of the Thesis (Chapters 4, 5 and 6) deals with some modeling aspects regarding the design and management of EWS, introducing innovative proposals and developments.
In particular, the attention is given to the issue of determining the number and the optimal location of the sensors within the network.
Ultimately, the last chapter shows the technical feasibility of a smart prototype system for the early detection of biological contaminations within the network.
This system will efficiently enable water utility managers to ensure a real-time adoption of water quality control procedures.
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Miller, Donna Marie. "Establishing Inter Rater Reliability of the National Early Warning Score." Walsh University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=walsh1429472548.
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Beckmann, Daniela. "From early warning systems to asset managers' behavior : evidence for mature and emerging markets /." Frankfurt am Main [u. a.] : Lang, 2008. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/549497323.pdf.
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Beckmann, Daniela. "From early warning systems to asset managers' behavior evidence for mature and emerging markets." Frankfurt, M. Berlin Bern Bruxelles New York, NY Oxford Wien Lang, 2007. http://d-nb.info/986248029/04.
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Donner, William R. "An integrated model of risk perception and protective action public response to tornado warnings /." Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file, 224 p, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1397915961&sid=4&Fmt=2&clientId=8331&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Baduel, Ronan. "An integrated model-based early validation approach for railway systems." Thesis, Toulouse 2, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019TOU20083.
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L’ingénierie système est un domaine où l’on étudie la conception de systèmes complexes. Un système est une solution que l’on veut développer, par exemple un train ou un réseau de satellites. Un système complexe est composé de différents éléments indépendants. Les ingénieurs travaillent à partir de listes d’attentes vis à vis du système, chacune caractérisant ce qu’il doit être ou doit faire. Ils créent alors un système et vérifient qu’il répond aux attentes. Afin de gagner du temps et de l’argent, on souhaite vérifier que le système correspond aux attentes avant même de le réaliser. Cela demande d’intégrer les différentes attentes et spécifier comment elles doivent être mises ensembles, générant ainsi un système attendu que l’on peut valider. Le but de la thèse est de fournir une méthode permettant d'intégrer les informations caractérisant un système de train au cours de sa conception, permettant ainsi la spécification, la représentation et la validation de son comportementSystem engineering is a domain that studies the conception of complex system. A system corresponds to a solution we want to develop, such as a train, a satellite network, etc. A complex system is composed of several independent elements Engineers work from lists of individual expectations regarding the system to be or what it is supposed to do, which they use to create a system and see if it answers expectations. To gain time and money, we would like to check that the system-to-be answers expectations before developing it: it requires to integrate expectations and specify how they should be put together, inducing a system expected that we can check. The goal pursued in this PhD is to provide a method to integrate information regarding a train system during conception, enabling the specification, representation and validation of its behavior
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Almajed, Yasser M. "A framework for an adaptive early warning and response system for insider privacy breaches." Thesis, De Montfort University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2086/11129.
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Organisations such as governments and healthcare bodies are increasingly responsible for managing large amounts of personal information, and the increasing complexity of modern information systems is causing growing concerns about the protection of these assets from insider threats. Insider threats are very difficult to handle, because the insiders have direct access to information and are trusted by their organisations. The nature of insider privacy breaches varies with the organisation’s acceptable usage policy and the attributes of an insider. However, the level of risk that insiders pose depends on insider breach scenarios including their access patterns and contextual information, such as timing of access. Protection from insider threats is a newly emerging research area, and thus, only few approaches are available that systemise the continuous monitoring of dynamic insider usage characteristics and adaptation depending on the level of risk. The aim of this research is to develop a formal framework for an adaptive early warning and response system for insider privacy breaches within dynamic software systems. This framework will allow the specification of multiple policies at different risk levels, depending on event patterns, timing constraints, and the enforcement of adaptive response actions, to interrupt insider activity. Our framework is based on Usage Control (UCON), a comprehensive model that controls previous, ongoing, and subsequent resource usage. We extend UCON to include interrupt policy decisions, in which multiple policy decisions can be expressed at different risk levels. In particular, interrupt policy decisions can be dynamically adapted upon the occurrence of an event or over time. We propose a computational model that represents the concurrent behaviour of an adaptive early warning and response system in the form of statechart. In addition, we propose a Privacy Breach Specification Language (PBSL) based on this computational model, in which event patterns, timing constraints, and the triggered early warning level are expressed in the form of policy rules. The main features of PBSL are its expressiveness, simplicity, practicality, and formal semantics. The formal semantics of the PBSL, together with a model of the mechanisms enforcing the policies, is given in an operational style. Enforcement mechanisms, which are defined by the outcomes of the policy rules, influence the system state by mutually interacting between the policy rules and the system behaviour. We demonstrate the use of this PBSL with a case study from the e-government domain that includes some real-world insider breach scenarios. The formal framework utilises a tool that supports the animation of the enforcement and policy models. This tool also supports the model checking used to formally verify the safety and progress properties of the system over the policy and the enforcement specifications.
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Worrall, Eve. "An economic evaluation of malaria early warning systems in Africa : a population dynamic modelling approach." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.250226.
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Bode, Felix [Verfasser], and Wolfgang [Akademischer Betreuer] Nowak. "Early-warning monitoring systems for improved drinking water resource protection / Felix Bode ; Betreuer: Wolfgang Nowak." Stuttgart : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Stuttgart, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1179787218/34.
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Beruski, Gustavo Castilho. "Disease warning systems for rational management of Asian soybean rust in Brazil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11152/tde-25072018-163838/.
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The Asian soybean rust (ASR), caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, may promote significant damages in soybean crop. The disease is mainly controlled by sequential applications of fungicides following a calendarbased system. However, this practice disregards the weather favorability to recommend spraying to ASR control. The proposition of fungicide schemes to make the ASR control more efficient can be reached by the use of diseasewarning systems. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the performance of different disease-warning systems to determine better fungicide spraying schemes for the ASR control. The experiment was conducted in Piracicaba, SP, Ponta Grossa, PR, Campo Verde and Pedra Preta, MT, Brazil, over the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 soybean growing seasons. The treatments were: Unsprayed check treatment; Calendar-based sprays in a 14-day interval from R1 stage (CALEND); Disease warning system based on rainfall data with less conservative threshold (PREC_1 - 80% severity cut-off); and more conservative threshold (PREC_2 - 50% severity cut-off); Disease warning system based on air temperature and leaf wetness duration with less conservative threshold (TLWD_1 - 6 lesions cm-2) and more conservative threshold (TLWD_2 - 9 lesions cm-2). The results confirmed that weather conditions in the field trials were favorable to ASR progress. Among the weather elements correlated to severity leaf wetness duration, cumulative rainfall and air temperature during leaf wetness duration influenced positively the ASR. By testing warning systems to control ASR it ones was evidenced that those based on rainfall data presented highest performances. PREC_2 showed a high performance considering all sowing dates; whereas, PREC_1 was better treatment during sowing dates between October and November. The TLWD diseasewarning systems, with both thresholds, overestimated the ASR, recommending more sprays compared to other treatments. Empirical models were efficient for estimation of LWD in Ponta Grossa, Campo Verde and Pedra Preta. High performances in estimating LWD were identified by using number of hours with relative humidity above 90% (NHRH>=90%), being these able to be use as input in the disease-warning systems (RMSE less than 2.0 h). The profitability of use rainfall based warning systems was conditioned by variations in the rainfalls regimes at the studied sites. PREC_1 and PREC_2 presented the highest relative yield gains in relation to CALEND during the period with the highest rainfalls in Piracicaba, Campo Verde and Pedra Preta. However, in Ponta Grossa, the rainfall based warning systems were not effective to control ASR.A ferrugem asiática da soja (ASR), causada pelo fungo Phakopsora pachyrhizi, pode ocasionar elevados prejuízos às lavouras de soja. O controle da doença é realizado por meio de aplicações sequenciais de fungicidas em sistema calendarizado. Este, por sua vez, não considera a favorabilidade climática para recomendar pulverizações. A proposição de esquemas de pulverização mais eficientes pode ser obtida pelo uso de sistemas de alerta fitossanitário. Assim, objetivou-se avaliar o desempenho de diferentes sistemas de alerta fitossanitário, visando à determinação de esquemas de pulverização de defensivos químicos para o controle de ASR nos estados de São Paulo, Paraná e Mato Grosso, Brasil. O experimento foi conduzido em Piracicaba, SP, Ponta Grossa, PR, Campo Verde e Pedra Preta, MT, Brasil ao longo das safras de 2014/2015 e 2015/2016. Os tratamentos foram: Testemunha (sem aplicação); Aplicações calendarizadas a partir de R1, espaçadas em 14 dias (CALEND); Sistema de alerta baseado em dados de chuva limiar menos conservador (PREC_1 - 80% de severidade) e mais conservador (PREC_2 - 50% de severidade); Sistema de alerta baseado em dados de temperatura do ar e a duração do período de molhamento foliar com limiar menos conservador (TDPM_1 - 6 lesões cm2) e com limiar menos conservador (TDPM_2 - 9 lesões cm2). Os resultados obtidos confirmaram que as condições meteorológicas nas localidades estudadas foram favoráveis para o progresso da ASR. Verificou-se que a duração do período de molhamento foliar (DPM), temperatura do ar durante o molhamento e chuva acumulada influenciaram positivamente a ASR. Ao testar os sistemas de alerta no controle de ASR verificou-se que aqueles baseados em dados de chuva apresentaram os melhores desempenhos. O PREC_2 apresentou melhor desempenho em análise geral considerando todas as épocas de semeadura, ao passo que PREC_1 foi melhor quando em semeadura de outubro a novembro. Os sistemas TDPM, com ambos os limiares de ação, superestimaram os valores de ASR acusando um número maior de pulverizações comparada aos demais tratamentos. Modelos empíricos mostraram ser eficientes na estimação da DPM em Ponta Grossa, Campo Verde e Pedra Preta. Estimações pelo método de número de horas com umidade relativa acima de 90% (NHUR>=90%) apresentaram RMSE menor que 2,0 h viabilizando o uso da DPM estimada como variável de entrada de sistema de alerta. A rentabilidade do uso dos sistemas de alerta baseado em dados de chuva foi condicionada às variações no regime dessa variável nas localidades estudadas. PREC_1 e PREC_2 apresentaram maior ganho de produtividade em relação à CALEND durante o período com maior índice pluviométrico nas localidades de Piracicaba, Campo Verde e Pedra Preta. Em contrapartida os sistemas de alerta não foram efetivos no controle de ASR em Ponta Grossa.
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Rostis, Adam. "The use of early warning systems for decision-making in humanitarian NGOs, assessing capacities and vulnerabilities." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0021/MQ49434.pdf.
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Monama, Fankie Lucas. "Knowledge management and early warning systems : the case of Southern African Development Community's conflict prevention strategy." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/2349.
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Thesis (MPhil (Information Science))--Stellenbosch University, 2008.Africa’s socio-economic reconstruction and development is constrained by the spate of violent conflicts afflicting the continent. Internecine strife and humanitarian concerns have prompted international debates surrounding the efficacy of existing conflict prevention, management and resolution strategies. With Africa seemingly in a semi-permanent state of tension and crisis, and the inability of the global and continental systems and structures to effectively deal with these situations, it requires a disentanglement of a “complex interplay of institutional-bureaucratic and political dynamics,” that place the continent at the centre of intervention dilemma. At the end of the Cold War, violent conflicts on the continent did not wither away, but have become so complex, thus confounding efforts to achieve sustainable peace. This complexity requires greater efforts to improve international, regional and subregional institutional capacities and contingency instruments to facilitate effective responses. The key emphasis within the international community is to enhance instruments to facilitate early detection of conflict situations in order to initiate preventive actions. Put differently, conflict prevention can be facilitated through the dynamic improvement of the processes, structures and functions of (conflict) early warning systems (EWS). In addition, political will is crucial towards the operationalisation of such systems to ensure swift and coordinated implementation of preventive actions. Cedric de Coning argues that conflict early warning systems can “improve our ability to generate the political will necessary to authorize preventive action much earlier in the conflict cycle, by improving our ability to estimate the potential future cost of inaction, and the way we bring this information to the attention of decision makers.” Schmeidl also argues that “early warning needs to be seen as a precondition to developing political will, and thus initiate (or better inform) reasonable response strategies.” However, existing organisational structures crucial for facilitating and expediting conflict prevention initiatives, suffer from “inertia” due to entrenched political structures, hierarchies and competing interests. The United Nations (UN) is an international body with the authority to facilitate conflict prevention. However, it is constrained by organisational complexities such as sectional political self-interest and the “bureaucratic red tape in large bureaucracies”, thus hampering its ability to swiftly and with the correct mandate, to respond to a call for preventive intervention. Hence the devolution of the responsibilities for the settlement of conflicts to the regional and subregional bodies. Conflicts have also “tended to pay little respect to State borders, proving the necessity for inter-State cooperation.” Because of the regionalisation of conflicts, the case of inter-regional collaboration has become increasingly vital as the “appropriate initial actors in seeking to defuse tensions and resolve local disputes within the region.” To this end, stronger intergovernmental mechanisms to facilitate early recognition of conflict situations and early intervention to prevent eruption or mitigate escalation have to be maintained. African countries, as a result, bear the burden of peace interventions from the African Union (AU) which consists of 53 members, to regional economic communities (RECs) such as Southern African Development Community (SADC), which consists of 14 members. These organisations are attenuated by bureaucratic ineptitude for adaptive behaviour that impact on swift and flexible responses. Nation states with diverse historical backgrounds, different political systems and unequal economic strengths are inclined to have fundamental inequalities in power and influence. Consequently, opposing political values, national interest and competing rationalities underlining their actions become sources of contention and impede the establishment of a common ground. These hurdles breed tensions and suspicion that impact on coordination of effort and information sharing regarding conflict situations. Thus, to surmount these barriers, it is imperative to reconcile competing interests through comprehensive inclusiveness, cooperation and effective collaborative partnerships among various stakeholders, particularly civil society and political decision makers. ‘Preventive action’ must, insists the International Peace Academy (IPA), “not be considered as an expedient product or event, but as a continuous, organic process that necessitates a highest degree of inclusiveness and multisectoral participation in dialogue and peace-building. These aspects should be institutionalised within the inter-regional organisations to establish the culture of common effort for common purpose. In the interest of collective effort and to expand AU’s capacity for conflict prevention, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) was established in 2003. The PSC is defined as “a collective security and early warning arrangement to facilitate timely and efficient response to conflict and crisis situation in Africa. Apparently, the PSC, as an instrument of conflict prevention on the continent, is also aimed at achieving unity of thought in dealing with the threats to peace and stability. In conflict situations, state sovereignty, political desirability and competing goals often render peace processes ineffective due to differences regarding the best course of action. The PSC is regarded as the means to create a platform for shared understanding and common vision regarding the challenge of conflict prevention. Still, to be more effective, it requires a strong collaboration with subregional organisations (e.g. SADC) and multisectoral participation of, for example academics, research institutes, civil society organisations (CSOs), non-governmental (NGOs) and community-based organisations (CBOs). The main thrust should be to create a shared framework for political decision makers to make “collective sense” of the problems on the continent, and be in a position to synchronise efforts to achieve peace and stability. Conversely, the AU and also SADC remain politically diverse organisations. As such, operationalisation of conflict prevention initiatives is likely to encounter obstacles emanating from, as Gina van Schalkwyk indicated, “conflict around political values amongst states in the [sub]region and …disputes on the basis of divergent interpretations [of policies]. This creates a paradox between the necessity of conflict prevention and the divergent national interests. Convergent thinking and creating a shared outlook in the existing organisational frameworks (e.g. SADC) is imperative in order to generate political will and to facilitate improved decision making and implementation of proactive responses in the prevention of conflicts.
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Gadelha, Juliana Rodrigues. "Sea anemones stress responses in three different climatic scenarios as early warning systems for environmental change." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/19133.
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McGaughey, Jennifer Margaret. "A realistic evaluation of early warning systems and acute care training for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward-based patients." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.602463.
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Rapid Response Systems but is dependent upon nurses utilising EWS protocols and applying Acute Life-threatening Events: Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course best practice guidelines. To date there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of EWS or ALERT as research has primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes (cardiac arrests, lCU admissions) following the implementation of a Rapid Response Team. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors that enabled and constrained the implementation and service delivery of Early Warnings Systems (EWS) and acute care training in practice in order to provide direction for enabling their success and sustainability. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory. This approach used a variety of mixed methods to test the programme theories including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records . Data synthesis found similar regularities or factors enabling or constraining successful implementation across the case study sites. Findings showed that personal (confidence; clinical judgement; professional accountability; personality). social (ward leadership; communication), organisational (workload; time pressures; staffing levels and skill-mix), educational (constraints on training and experiential learning) and cultural (delegation of observations. referral hierarchy; rigid recording practices) influences impact on EWS and acute care training outcomes. RRS theory refinement using realist evaluation explained what works, for whom in what circumstances. Future service provision needs to consider improved staffing levels; flexible implementation of protocols underpinned by empowerment and clinical judgement; on-going experiential ward-based learning and enhanced clinical leadership to enable the success and sustainability of Rapid Response Systems.
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Duncan, Andrew Paul. "The analysis and application of artificial neural networks for early warning systems in hydrology and the environment." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17569.
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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been comprehensively researched, both from a computer scientific perspective and with regard to their use for predictive modelling in a wide variety of applications including hydrology and the environment. Yet their adoption for live, real-time systems remains on the whole sporadic and experimental. A plausible hypothesis is that this may be at least in part due to their treatment heretofore as “black boxes” that implicitly contain something that is unknown, or even unknowable. It is understandable that many of those responsible for delivering Early Warning Systems (EWS) might not wish to take the risk of implementing solutions perceived as containing unknown elements, despite the computational advantages that ANNs offer. This thesis therefore builds on existing efforts to open the box and develop tools and techniques that visualise, analyse and use ANN weights and biases especially from the viewpoint of neural pathways from inputs to outputs of feedforward networks. In so doing, it aims to demonstrate novel approaches to self-improving predictive model construction for both regression and classification problems. This includes Neural Pathway Strength Feature Selection (NPSFS), which uses ensembles of ANNs trained on differing subsets of data and analysis of the learnt weights to infer degrees of relevance of the input features and so build simplified models with reduced input feature sets. Case studies are carried out for prediction of flooding at multiple nodes in urban drainage networks located in three urban catchments in the UK, which demonstrate rapid, accurate prediction of flooding both for regression and classification. Predictive skill is shown to reduce beyond the time of concentration of each sewer node, when actual rainfall is used as input to the models. Further case studies model and predict statutory bacteria count exceedances for bathing water quality compliance at 5 beaches in Southwest England. An illustrative case study using a forest fires dataset from the UCI machine learning repository is also included. Results from these model ensembles generally exhibit improved performance, when compared with single ANN models. Also ensembles with reduced input feature sets, using NPSFS, demonstrate as good or improved performance when compared with the full feature set models. Conclusions are drawn about a new set of tools and techniques, including NPSFS and visualisation techniques for inspection of ANN weights, the adoption of which it is hoped may lead to improved confidence in the use of ANN for live real-time EWS applications.
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de, Oliveira Marcelo Gurgel. "An integrated methodology for the evaluation of the safety impacts of in-vehicle driver warning technologies." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/19162.
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Bruns, Martin [Verfasser]. "Essays in Empirical Macroeconomics: Identification in Vector Autoregressive Models and Robust Inference in Early Warning Systems / Martin Bruns." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2019. http://d-nb.info/119064522X/34.
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Larsson, Olsson Christoffer, and Erik Svensson. "Early Warning Leakage Detection for Pneumatic Systems on Heavy Duty Vehicles : Evaluating Data Driven and Model Driven Approach." Thesis, KTH, Mekatronik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-261207.
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Modern Heavy Duty Vehicles consist of a multitude of components and operate in various conditions. As there is value in goods transported, there is an incentive to avoid unplanned breakdowns. For this, condition based maintenance can be applied.\newline This thesis presents a study comparing the applicability of the data-driven Consensus SelfOrganizing Models (COSMO) method and the model-driven patent series introduced by Fogelstrom, applied on the air processing system for leakage detection on Scania Heavy Duty Vehicles. The comparison of the two methods is done using the Area Under Curve value given by the Receiver Operating Characteristics curves for features in order to reach a verdict.\newline For this purpose, three criteria were investigated. First, the effects of the hyper-parameters were explored to conclude a necessary vehicle fleet size and time period required for COSMO to function. The second experiment regarded whether environmental factors impact the predictability of the method, and finally the effect on the predictability for the case of nonidentical vehicles was determined.\newline The results indicate that the number of representations ought to be at least 60, rather with a larger set of vehicles in the fleet than with a larger window size, and that the vehicles should be close to identical on a component level and be in use in comparable ambient conditions.\newline In cases where the vehicle fleet is heterogeneous, a physical model of each system is preferable as this produces more stable results compared to the COSMO method.Moderna tunga fordon består av ett stort antal komponenter och används i många olika miljöer. Då värdet för tunga fordon ofta består i hur mycket gods som transporteras uppstår ett incitament till att förebygga oplanerade stopp. Detta görs med fördel med hjälp av tillståndsbaserat underhåll. Denna avhandling undersöker användbarheten av den data-drivna metoden Consensus SelfOrganizing Models (COSMO) kontra en modellbaserad patentserie för att upptäcka läckage på luftsystem i tunga fordon. Metoderna ställs mot varandra med hjälp av Area Under Curve-värdet som kommer från Receiver Operating Characteristics-kurvor från beskrivande signaler. Detta gjordes genom att utvärdera tre kriterier. Dels hur hyperparametrar influerar COSMOmetoden för att avgöra en rimlig storlek på fordonsflottan, dels huruvida omgivningsförhållanden påverkar resultatet och slutligen till vilken grad metoden påverkas av att fordonsflottan inte är identisk. Slutsatsen är att COSMO-metoden med fördel kan användas sålänge antalet representationer överstiger 60 och att fordonen inom flottan är likvärdiga och har använts inom liknande omgivningsförhållanden. Om fordonsflottan är heterogen så föredras en fysisk modell av systemet då detta ger ett mer stabilt resultat jämfört med COSMO-metoden.
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Sufri, Sofyan. "Community Engagement in the Early Warning System to Improve Disaster Preparedness in Aceh Province, Indonesia." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/391065.
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Globally, disasters cause tremendous impacts on humans, economies and the environment. In the past 20 years, the world has focused on how to best reduce these impacts through a series of global policy frameworks. The disaster risk reduction and management concept adopted by the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR 2015-2030) in the third United Nations World Conference on DRR (WCDRR) promotes the reduction of hazards against people and the environment. The framework also encourages member countries to enhance their disaster preparedness capacities for effective responses. An Early Warning System (EWS) is an essential component of disaster preparedness and includes four elements (risk knowledge; monitoring and warning; dissemination and communication; and response capability) in order to provide effective and timely information to people at risk. The International Network for Multi-Hazard EWSs was a major agenda of the session on the Early Warning System in the third UN WCDRR. This network was established to strengthen Multi-Hazard EWSs (MHEWSs) as an integral part of national strategies for disaster risk reduction and building resilience in order to support the implementation of the SFDRR and it recognises the importance of involving the community within the system. Considering multi-hazards EWS and explicitly identifying the role of community engagement (CE) approaches is crucial to achieve the effectiveness of EWS design and operation, so as to prevent loss of lives, injuries and to protect the environment. However, the research suggests that EWSs in many settings still heavily focus on a single hazard using technology without comprehensively including all elements or involving the community in the system, leading to ineffective preparedness to disaster response.
Aceh, the westernmost province in Indonesia, is vulnerable to multiple disasters. Although since the catastrophic 2004 tsunami much progress has been achieved in infrastructure, legislation and capacity building for various actors in disaster preparedness and management in the province, inadequate disaster preparedness leading to less than optimal response has continued to occur in Aceh. For example, in the 2007 and 2012 earthquakes, most people did not use evacuation buildings and they fled using motorcycles causing 10 deaths due to panic. As a result, motorists blocked main roads, hampering evacuation processes. Further, during the November 2018 floods, although no casualties were reported, many people (over 210) were trapped, stranded and lost their homes and property because they did not have sufficient time to evacuate due to the absence of effective dissemination of information in advance. There are numerous areas where preparedness could be improved, one of which is in the area of CE in the EWS design and operation.
This research aims to investigate the opportunities and challenges for enhancing CE in the EWS to improve disaster preparedness in Aceh. To achieve this aim, a qualitative approach was adopted, utilising diverse data collection methods: a systematic review of grey and peer-reviewed literature to understand CE in EWSs globally; in-depth interviews with 39 key stakeholders from provincial to village levels including persons involved in disaster management and the EWS operation, and decision makers, Imuem mukim, village chiefs, and other adat stakeholders; discussion with 6 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) in two case villages and reviews of local government regulations, reports and other documents from provincial to village levels.
A systematic literature review of 15 journal articles and 16 project reports focused on research that included EWS elements and community engagement in a disaster context. The review identified a lack of reported CE activities across the four elements of EWSs when examining cases from around the world. Key challenges for engaging the community in EWSs identified through the review included constraints on the sustainability of CE in EWSs due to insufficient technical, financial and human resources; the absence of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for CE in EWSs; insufficient incorporation of CE activities into formal EWSs; insufficient integration of traditional and scientific knowledge in the system; and lack of inclusion, and hence recognition, of the needs of all vulnerable groups in the EWSs context.
The major findings based on the setting, Aceh, are categorised into four areas: (1) existing EWS structure and governance, and roles of actors involved in the system, (2) current CE conditions across the four elements of EWS in the province, (3) enabling factors for enhancing CE in the EWS to improve disaster prepredness, and (4) barriers that can hinder CE in the EWS.
Some of the key issues relating to the existing EWS governance and structure and actors involved in the system include: (1) the EWS management that focuses only on tsunami, (2) an over-reliance on technology, (3) the absence of legal authority of the EWS manager (Pusdalops), (4) the linear nature of the EWS model adopted, (5) various information dissemination interruptions—delayed information flows between actors, lack of media engagement in warning dissemination, information dissemination disruption from and to rural locations, (6) disaster response challenges relating to staff shortcomings—actors being constrained by their internal regulations (bureaucracy); egocentrism that leads to inadequate coordination between response agencies; staff turnover that leads to poor coordination among actors and inadequate skilled staff; limited workforce at Pusdalops in the Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah (BPBD or District Disaster Management Agency) in Pidie district; and the dominance of military/police in disaster responses.
The other key issues in relation the current status of CE across the four elements of the EWS include the following: (1) communities were commonly involved in government or NGO projects in a few target areas but not across all the four EWS elements, (2) for the risk knowledge element, some communities understand well the risks within their areas based on their experience, (3) most people are not formally engaged in hazard monitoring and warning activities, though they independently monitor and predict some risks through observing natural signs, (4) communities commonly receive information through televisions, radios and the Internet (one-way communication engagement), (5) two-way communication engagement with the community is commonly facilitated by the Radio Antar Penduduk Indonesia (RAPI or Indonesian Inter-Citizen Radio) using “Handy Talkies”, (6) some communities in particular areas were often engaged with short-term response activities such as disaster drills and simulations, but the activities were not formalized in contingency plans, which were lacking, hence sustainability is problematic, and (7) some communities prepare for disaster responses independently of government leadership utilising their own resources and networks.
Further, the key findings identified opportunities for enhancing CE in the EWS to improve disaster prepredness, including (1) improving CE with disaster management and Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) programs initiated and supported by governments or NGOs e.g. TAGANA (Disaster Alert Teams), Search and Rescue (SAR) operation, Public Safety Centres (PSC), Disaster Preparedness School, Community Based Disaster Preparedness (CBDP), and Desa Tangguh Bencana (Destana or Resilient Village), (2) utilising the respected figures within communities and disaster experienced communities, (3) utilising existing local customary (adat) and sharia practices that align with EWS principles and goals, (4) using the existing community infrastructure such as meunasahs (village community centres) and mosques for preparedness and response activities.
However, the identified challenges for enhancing CE in the EWS include (1) inadequate integration of CE activities into formal EWS processes, (2) the weakening of existing supporting practices such as meuseraya, (3) inadequate recognition of the roles of Imuem mukim to maintain adat and sharia practices that align with the goals of EWS, (4) lack of funds to maintain CE programs, (5) unsustainability of CE programs due to the lack of community ownership of CBDRR programs and disaster management infrastructure, and (6) religious beliefs about disasters which hamper CE in the EWS design and operation.
These four major findings concerning opportunities and challenges for enhancing CE in the EWS in Aceh were discussed to draw out the implications of these findings for the Aceh government to improve disaster preparedness for effective disaster response.
In addition, this research provides key recommendations for changes of policy and practice, and future research for provincial and Pidie district governments including Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Aceh (BPBA or Aceh Provincial Disaster Management Agency), Pidie district BPBD as well as other involved agencies to improve the existing EWS structure, governance and the roles of stakehoders involved in the system, CE conditions in the EWS, as well as to enhance the enabling factors and reduce barriers to engaging the community in the EWS in Aceh.
This research is the first study that has systematically examined the EWS elements to understand the opportunities and challenges for enhancing CE in the EWS in Aceh by interviewing various key respondents at provincial, district and sub-district levels, as well as conducting interviews and FGDs at kemukiman and village/gampong level with key respected stakeholders e.g. traditional Islamic leaders, an Imuem mukim, Keuchiks, adat stakeholders, and other important figures based on sharia and adat practices.
While a few of the findings relate to the unique cultural and religious context of Aceh province, others should be useful for other disaster vulnerable areas throughout Indonesia and other developing countries where similar concerns exist about how to enhance CE in EWSs to improve disaster preparedness.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Medicine
Griffith Health
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Hamilton, Shelly-Ann. "It Takes an Institution's Village to Retain a Student: A Comprehensive Look at Two Early Warning System Undergraduate Retention Programs and Administrators' Perceptions of Students' Experiences and the Retention Services they Provide Students in the Early Warning System Retention Programs." FIU Digital Commons, 2013. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1008.
Full textAbstract:
Institutions have implemented many campus interventions to address student persistence/retention, one of which is Early Warning Systems (EWS). However, few research studies show evidence of interventions that incorporate noncognitive factors/skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes in the EWS. A qualitative study (phenomenological interview and document analysis) of EWS at both a public and private 4-year Florida university was conducted to explore EWS through the eyes of the administrators of the ways administrators make sense of students’ experiences and the services they provide and do not provide to assist students. Administrators’ understanding of noncognitive factors and the executive skills subset and their contribution to retention and the executive skills development of at-risk students were also explored. Hossler and Bean’s multiple retention lenses theory/paradigms and Perez’s retention strategies were used to guide the study. Six administrators from each institution who oversee and/or assist with EWS for first time in college undergraduate students considered academically at-risk for attrition were interviewed.
Among numerous findings, at Institution X: EWS was infrequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS did not work together to share students’ information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify students’ issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess, track, and monitor students’ issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution’s EWS did address students’ executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, but did not address students’ psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes.
Among numerous findings, at Institution Y: EWS was frequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS worked together to share students’ information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify, track, and monitor students’ issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess students’ issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution’s EWS addressed students’ executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes.
Based on the findings, Perez’s retention strategies were not utilized in EWS at Institution X, yet were collectively utilized in EWS at Institution Y, to achieve Hossler and Bean’s retention paradigms. Future research could be designed to test the link between engaging in the specific promising activities identified in this research (one-to-one coaching, participation in student success workshops, academic contracts, and tutoring) and student success (e.g., higher GPA, retention). Further, because this research uncovered some concern with how to best handle students with physical and psychological disabilities, future research could link these same promising strategies for improving student performance for example among ADHD students or those with clinical depression.
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Ahmed, Mohammad Abrar. "Early Layout Design Exploration in TSV-based 3D Integrated Circuits." PDXScholar, 2017. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/3617.
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Through silicon via (TSV) based 3D integrated circuits have inspired a novel design paradigm which explores the vertical dimension, in order to alleviate the performance and power limitations associated with long interconnects in 2D circuits. TSVs enable vertical interconnects across stacked and thinned dies in 3D-IC designs, resulting in reduced wirelength, footprint, faster speed, improved bandwidth, and lesser routing congestion. However, the usage of TSVs itself gives rise to many critical design challenges towards the minimization of chip delay and power consumption. Therefore, realization of the benefits of 3D ICs necessitates an early and realistic prediction of circuit performance during the early layout design stage.
The goal of this thesis is to meet the design challenges of 3D ICs by providing new capabilities to the existing floorplanning framework [87]. The additional capabilities included in the existing floorplanning tool is the co-placement of TSV islands with circuit blocks and performing non-deterministic assignment of signals to TSVs. We also replace the wirelength and number of TSVs in the floorplanning cost function with the total delay in the nets. The delay-aware cost function accounts for RC delay impact of TSVs on the delay of individual signal connection, and obviates the efforts required to balance the weight contributions of wirelength and TSVs in the wirelength-aware floorplanning. Our floorplanning tool results in 5% shorter wirelength and 21% lesser TSVs compared to recent approaches. The delay in the cost function improves total delay in the interconnects by 10% - 12% compared to wirelength-aware cost function.
The influence of large coupling capacitance between TSVs on the delay, power and coupling noise in 3D interconnects also offers serious challenges to the performance of 3D-IC. Due to the degree of design complexity introduced by TSVs in 3D ICs, the importance of early stage evaluation and optimization of delay, power and signal integrity of 3D circuits cannot be ignored. The unique contribution of this work is to develop methods for accurate analysis of timing, power and coupling noise across multiple stacked device layers during the floorplanning stage. Incorporating the impact of TSV and the stacking of multiple device layers within floorplanning framework will help to achieve 3D layouts with superior performance.
Therefore, we proposed an efficient TSV coupling noise model to evaluate the coupling noise in the 3D interconnects during floorplanning. The total coupling noise in 3D interconnects is included in the cost function to optimize positions of TSVs and blocks, as well as nets-to-TSVs assignment to obtain floorplans with minimized coupling noise. We also suggested diagonal TSV arrangement for larger TSV pitch and nonuniform pitch arrangement for reducing worst TSV-to-TSV coupling, thereby minimizing the coupling noise in the interconnects.
This thesis also focuses on more realistic evaluation and optimization of delay and power in TSV based 3D integrated circuits considering the interconnect density on individual device layers. The floorplanning tool uses TSV locations and delay, non-uniform interconnect density across multiple stacked device layers to assess and optimize the buffer count, delay, and interconnect power dissipation in a design. It is shown that the impact of non-uniform interconnect density, across the stacked device layers, should not be ignored, as its contribution to the performance of the 3D interconnects is consequential.
A wire capacitance-aware buffer insertion scheme is presented that determines the optimal distance between adjacent buffers on the individual device layers for nonuniform wire density between stacked device layers. The proposed approach also considers TSV location on a 3D wire to optimize the buffer insertion around TSVs. For 3D designs with uniform wire density across stacked device layers, we propose a TSV-aware buffer insertion approach that appropriately models the TSV RC delay impact on interconnect delay to determine the optimum interval between adjacent buffers for individual 3D nets. Moreover, our floorplanning tool help achieve 3D layouts with superior performance by incorporating the impact of nonuniform density on the delay, power and coupling noise in the interconnects during floorplanning.
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Azadeh, Fard Nasibeh. "Essays on Risk Indicators and Assessment: Theoretical, Empirical, and Engineering Approaches." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/78323.
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Risk indicators are metrics that are widely used in risk management to indicate how risky an activity is. Among different types of risk indicators, early warning systems are designed to help decision makers predict and be prepared for catastrophic events. Especially, in complex systems where outcomes are often difficult to predict, early warnings can help decision makers manage possible risks and take a proactive approach. Early prediction of catastrophic events and outcomes are at the heart of risk management, and help decision makers take appropriate actions in order to mitigate possible effects of such events. For example, physicians would like to prevent any adverse events for their patients and like to use all pieces of information that help accurate early diagnosis and interventions.
In this research, first we study risk assessment for occupational injuries using accident severity grade as an early warning indicator. We develop a new severity scoring system which considers multiple injury severity factors, and can be used as a part of a novel three-dimensional risk assessment matrix which includes an incident's severity, frequency, and preventability. Then we study the predictability of health outcome based on early risk indicators. A systems model of patient health outcomes and hospital length of stay is presented based on initial health risk and physician assessment of risk. The model elaborates on the interdependent effects of hospital service and a physician's subjective risk assessment on length of stay and mortality. Finally, we extend our research to study the predictive power of early warning systems and prognostic risk indicators in predicting different outcomes in health such as mortality, disease diagnosis, adverse outcomes, care intensity, and survival. This study provides a theoretical framework on why risk indicators can or cannot predict healthcare outcomes, and how better predictors can be designed. Overall, these three essays shed light on complexities of risk assessments, especially in health domain, and in the contexts where individuals continuously observe and react to the risk indicators. Furthermore, our multi-method research approach provides new insights into improving the design and use of the risk measures.Ph. D.
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Sättele, Martina [Verfasser], Daniel [Akademischer Betreuer] Straub, and Michael [Akademischer Betreuer] Krautblatter. "Quantifying the Reliability and effectiveness of Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazards / Martina Sättele. Gutachter: Michael Krautblatter ; Daniel Straub. Betreuer: Daniel Straub." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1072500825/34.
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Hissa, Joakim, and Ronny Ulltjärn. "Årsredovisningar ur ett alternativt perspektiv." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Institutionen Handels- och IT-högskolan, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-19478.
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Vi har undersökt hur Scandinavian Airlines Systems (SAS) årsredovisningar kanstuderas utifrån ord respektive siffror och vilket av de två som ger bäst informationför en extern intressent. Vidare har vi studerat hur väl redovisningen överrensstämmermed företagets situation. I studien har nyckeltal och analysmetoden Content analysisanvänts för att studera siffror i årsredovisningen, medans stycket ”VD har ordet” stårtill grund för analysen av text. Vårt syfte med uppsatsen är att bidra med kunskap omhur årsredovisningar kan användas av externa intressenter, det vill säga hurårsredovisningar kan belysa ett företags situation utifrån olika perspektiv.Studien bygger på både en kvalitativ och en kvantitativ metod på grund av uppsatsensuppdelning mellan att studera siffror samt tolka text. Vidare har en abduktiv processanvänts, det vill säga att teori och empiri har skapats i växelverkan. Endastsekundärdata har använts då vi har studerat SAS årsredovisningar mellan år 1992 tillår 2008.Vi har i studien kommit fram till att det bästa sättet för en extern intressent att förståett företags situation är att utföra en analys som kombinerar flera olika metoder, därnyckeltal och nyckelord fungerar som indikatorer medans tolkning av text ger endjupare förståelse för företaget. Vi har även funnit att redovisningen inte alltidstämmer överrens med företagets situation. Detta beror på att siffror endast gerindikationer på problem men inte visar orsakerna till dessa. Ytterligare är en text oftasubjektiv och beror även på läsarens tolkningsförmåga av den, vilket gör det svårareatt få en korrekt bild av företagets situation.
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Solomon, F. J. "Examining the feasiblity of informal settlement flood early warning systems : focus on the urban flood-risk experience of Kosovo and Masiphumelele residents, Cape Town South Africa." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10717.
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Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-117).This thesis examines the feasibility of applying people-centred approaches to flood early warning systems (EWS) in informal settlements in the City of Cape Town, particularly, through the experiences of poor and disadvantaged communities in Kosovo and Masiphumelele informal settlements. The impact of recurrent floods during the winter rainfall months and their costs are disproportionally borne both by those at risk and the local government that is required to repeatedly respond to them. A social science perspective is adopted, with the application of a risk communication framework. The urban flood-risk context of both study sites and the risk governance approach to managing and communicating flood risk were investigated and factors influencing flood warning processes and behavioural factors influencing response to flood-risk and flood warning, examined.
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Green, Steven Paul. "Intelligent Person Behaviour Analysis in Low Resolution Beach Video Imagery." Thesis, Griffith University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366650.
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Object detection in complex scenes plays an important role in many real world
applications, such as scene analysis, security, traffic violation detection, and medical
research. The Object Detection and Behaviour Classification (ODBC) system
created from this PhD research, is ground-breaking and concentrates solely on the
domain of people and behaviour detection in low resolution beach scene imagery.
The video source for this research was obtained from Coastalwatch beach webcams,
which are located throughout Australia. Current object detection systems,
overall, utilise a similar methodology, following four main image processing procedures;
1) remove unwanted noise, 2) background extraction from an image scene, 3)
segmentation of the objects from the scene, and 4) object classification into different
class types. To my knowledge, there is no other past or current research studying
behaviour detection in low resolution beach imagery, and therefore, my research
leads the way in this domain.
Information from beach imagery can provide important data for tourism promotions
and beach safety. Analysis of people behaviour could assist in making
decisions about promotions and beach amenities. Automated beach systems may
provide constant monitoring of a beach, by detecting people entering the ocean in
a flagged or non-flagged area of a beach. This may also provide an early warning
system to assist lifeguards in protecting swimmers in a beach area.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Information and Communication Technology
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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Lovati, Marco. "Methodologies and tools for BiPV implementation in the early stages of architectural design." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11572/263544.
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Photovoltaic technology is among the best tools our civilization has to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas that are currently altering the atmosphere composition of our planet. The idea of using photovoltaic surfaces on the envelope of buildings is called with the acronym of BIPV (building integrated photovoltaics), it offers the advantage of producing energy in the same location of the demand for electricity. Furthermore, BIPV allows to save monetary and environmental costs by substituting building materials with photovoltaic collectors. As every technology,BIPV follows an adoption pattern that is bringing it from a very limited niche product to a pervasive one. Nevertheless, the adoption rate of BIPV appears to be slow, and the industry has offered little opportunities of business for its stakeholders over the last 20 years. There are multiple reasons for this sluggish growth, and a considerable body of scientific literature has offered potential solutions to the problem. The building industry is notoriously slow in picking up innovation, furthermore the BIPV material needs to compete with much more mature, versatile and often cheaper cladding technologies and materials. Numerous research endeavors are focusing on the development of new BIPV claddings to have diversified colors, dimensions, shapes and other properties. The argument is that the technology is not mature and thus cannot be adopted by the bulk of architects and designers. Unfortunately, the premium characteristics of these new materials often come with a higher price and a reduced efficiency, thus reducing their market potential. Other research
endeavors, among which this thesis, are focusing on the design of buildings: trying to include the use of photovoltaics into the architectural practice through education and software development. Numerous
software has been developed over the last 20 years with the aim of calculating the productivity or the economic outlook of a BIPV system.
The main difference between the existing software and the method presented here lies in the following fact: previously, the capacity and positions of a BIPV system are required as input for the calculation of
performance, in this method the capacity and positions of the BIPV system are given as the output of an optimization process. A designer whois skeptical or disengaged about the use of BIPV could be induced to avoid its use entirely by the discouraging simulation results given by the lack of a techno-economic optimal configuration. Conversely, a designer
who opt for a premium architectural PV material would, thank to the methodology shown, be able to assess the impact its unitary cost has on the optimal BIPV capacity of the building. Ultimately, the method presented provides new knowledge to the designer regarding the use of BIPV on his building, hopefully this can facilitate the spread of BIPV technology. The method described was translated into a software tool to find the best positions and number of PV surfaces over the envelope of the building and the best associated battery capacity. The tool is based on the combined use of ray-tracing (for irradiation calculation) and optimization algorithms, its use led to the following conclusions:
• BIPV is profitable under a wide range of assumptions if installedin the correct capacities
• 20% of the residential electric demand can easily be covered by PV without the need for electric storage and in a profitable way
• Despite an interesting rate of return of the investment, the payback time was generally found to be long (over 10 years)
• More research is needed to assess the risk on the investment on BIPV: if found to be low, future financial mechanisms could increase its spread despite the long payback time
• The optimal capacity in energy terms (i.e. the energy consumed on-site minus the energy used to produce a BIPV system) tends to be far higher than any techno-economic optimum
• The specific equivalent CO2 emissions for an NPV optimal system have been found to be between 70 and 123 [kg CO2 eq/MWh] under the range of assumptions applied
• The installation of optimal BIPV capacity could change the overall residential CO2 emission of -12%, +13%, -29% in England, France and Greece respectively
• despite the non optimal placement of a BIPV system compared to a ground mounted, south oriented one, and despite the noncontemporaneity of production and consumption, the BIPV still easily outperforms the energy mix of most countries when optimized for maximum NPV.
• The part of the building envelope that have the most annual irradiation (i.e. the roof) should not necessarily host the entirety of the system as other facades might have an advantage in terms of matching production and consumption times.
• when different scenarios are made in terms of techno-economic input parameters (e.g. degradation of the system, future costs of maintenance, future variation of electricity price etc..) larger capacities are optimal for optimistic outlooks and vice-versa
• the optimal capacity for the expected scenario (i.e. the 50 % ile) can be considered robust as it performs close to the optimum in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios alike.
• a reduction in price for the electric storage appears to have a positive effect on the optimal capacity of PV installed for the case study considered.
• when a group of households is optimized separately V.S. aggregated together, the aggregation have a huge positive effect on all KPIs of the resulting system: in the NPV optimal system of a case study examined the installed capacity ( +118%), the NPV ( +262.2%) and the self-sufficiency( +51%) improved thanks to aggregation.
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Guttal, Vishwesha. "Applications of nonequilibrium statistical physics to ecological systems." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1209696541.
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Keuschnig, Markus Verfasser], Michael [Akademischer Betreuer] [Gutachter] Krautblatter, Annette [Gutachter] Menzel, and Lothar [Gutachter] [Schrott. "Long-term monitoring of permafrost-affected rock walls : Towards an automatic, continuous electrical resistivity tomography (AERT) monitoring for early warning systems / Markus Keuschnig ; Gutachter: Michael Krautblatter, Annette Menzel, Lothar Schrott ; Betreuer: Michael Krautblatter." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1122286112/34.
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Witt, Tanja Ivonne [Verfasser], Thomas R. [Akademischer Betreuer] Walter, Bernd [Akademischer Betreuer] Zimanowski, Magnus Tumi [Gutachter] Gudmundsson, and Helge [Gutachter] Gonnermann. "Camera Monitoring at volcanoes : Identification and characterization of lava fountain activity and near-vent processes and their relevance for early warning systems / Tanja Ivonne Witt ; Gutachter: Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson, Helge Gonnermann ; Thomas R. Walter, Bernd Zimanowski." Potsdam : Universität Potsdam, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1218404205/34.
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Edney, Peter Robert. "Liquidity Risk and Bank Regulation: Basel III and Beyond." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/13356.
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Liquidity transformation is a pre-eminent function of the banking system. By utilising at-call deposits to fund long-term and illiquid loans, and by making funds available to depositors and borrowers upon demand, banks contribute to economic welfare. However, liquidity transformation exposes banks to significant risks. As banks do not choose to hold socially optimal liquidity exposures on their own, bank regulations are an important tool for enhancing the safety of individual banks and improving the stability of the financial system. This thesis sheds new light on the causes of liquidity risk by examining the supervisory liquidity risk ratings of Australian deposit-taking institutions. It is shown that liquidity risk ratings are predictable and that the Basel III liquidity regulations are likely to reduce risk in the banking system. By conducting the first microeconomic cost-benefit analysis of the Basel III liquidity standards, this thesis also illustrates that the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) have net social benefits under a range of reasonable assumptions. This is particularly important as past macroeconomic cost-benefit analyses of Basel III liquidity standards are shown to be misspecified and potentially spurious. JEL Classification: G28, G21
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Persson, Erik. "Flood Warnings in a Risk Management Context : A Case of Swedish Municipalities." Licentiate thesis, Karlstads universitet, Centrum för klimat och säkerhet (from 2013), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-35336.
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As a result of the United Nations’ International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000), and recent high profile disasters, disaster risk reduction has climbed high on the international political agenda. There has been a paradigm shift from reacting to disasters towards preparing for and mitigating effects of disasters. Among the measures that have been highlighted on the disaster risk reduction agenda are early warning systems. In a Swedish context, there are needs for early warnings for various flood risk types. Municipalities carry big responsibilities for managing flood risks, and early warnings have a potential to facilitate decision-making and ultimately reduce flood losses. The aim of this thesis is to describe how a variety of flood warning signals are used in the risk management process of Swedish municipalities, how they can contribute to the flood risk reducing process, and which factors influence the success of this. The thesis is based on two papers. Paper I is based on interviews with three respondents from Swedish municipalities that have invested in and established local early warning systems. The paper shows that the possible effects from a local early warning system are not only reduced flood losses but also potential spinoff, the occurrence of which is dependent on the well-being of the organisation and its risk management processes. Paper II is based on interviews with 23 respondents at 18 Swedish municipalities, who have responsibilities related to flood risk management, and one respondent who works at SMHI with hydrological warning. The paper shows that municipalities can use a variety of complementary flood warning signals to facilitate decision-making for a proactive flood response. This is however not systematically the case, and is dependent on available resources. The theoretical contribution of this thesis is a development of existing conceptual models of early warning systems with respect to risk management and system contexts, and the use of complementary warning signals.Following the United Nations’ International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000), and recent high profile disasters, disaster risk reduction has climbed high on the international political agenda. Among the measures that have been highlighted are early warning systems – for Swedish municipalities who are responsible for managing flood risks, early warnings have a potential to facilitate decision-making and ultimately reduce flood losses. This licentiate thesis, based on two articles, aims to describe how a variety of flood warning signals are used in the risk management process of Swedish municipalities, how they can contribute to the flood risk reducing process, and which factors influence the success of this. The articles show that the possible effects from a local early warning system are not only reduced flood losses but also potential spin-off benefits, the occurrence of which is dependent on factors such as organisational culture and the functioning of the wider risk management system, and that municipalities can use a variety of complementary flood warning signals to facilitate decision-making for a proactive flood response which, however, is not systematically the case as benefits are dependent on available resources.
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Meyer-Schwickerath, Ben [Verfasser], and A. [Akademischer Betreuer] Albers. "Vorausschau im Produktentstehungsprozess - Das integrierte Produktentstehungs-Modell (iPeM) als Bezugsrahmen für Vorausschau am Beispiel von Szenariotechnik und strategischer Frühaufklärung = Foresight for Product Engineering Processes - Using the Integrated Product Engineering Model (iPeM) to align foresight - the example of scenario technique and strategic early warning / Ben Meyer-Schwickerath. Betreuer: A. Albers." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1064940110/34.
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Desroches, Sabrina. "Fostering Anticipatory Action via Social Protection Systems : A Case Study of the Climate Vulnerability of Flood-Exposed Social Security Allowance Beneficiaries in Bardiya District, Nepal." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Teologiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-415293.
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Rationale – Climate disasters represent a significant and growing proportion of the humanitarian burden and are a key factor in increasing poverty and insecurity. A myriad of studies demonstrate that aid delivered in an ex-ante fashion can be effective in mitigating losses of life, assets and livelihoods associated with climate hazards. This inquiry supplements the nascent body of research and empirical evidence base pertaining to the building of anticipatory capacity into large-scale national systems, namely via linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to an existing social protection system. Research question – Using the case of flood disasters in Bardiya district, Nepal, the research inquired the following: How can social protection be combined with Forecast-based Financing in order to optimise anticipatory humanitarian relief for climate-related disasters? Sub-questions – Research sub-questions guided the inquiry: (1) To what extent are current social protection beneficiaries exposed to climate-related disasters? (2) What is the specific climate vulnerability of social protection beneficiaries? (3) What are the anticipatory relief needs of climate vulnerable social protection beneficiaries? Methodology – Grounded in empirical research via the conduct of a qualitative single case study, the inquiry adopted a conceptual perspective and an exploratory design. A remote data collection strategy was applied, which included (1) a thorough desk review of key scientific literature and secondary data provided by in-field humanitarian organisations; and (2) semi-structured interviews with key informants. Key findings – The data demonstrated that the exposure of social protection beneficiaries to flood hazards is comparable to the general population. Nevertheless, an elevated climate vulnerability is evident secondary to an increased sensitivity and diminished adaptive capacity. The flood anticipatory relief needs/preferences identified include cash-based assistance, food provisions, evacuation assistance and/or enhanced Early Warning Systems. Conclusion – The research supports the utilisation of the proposed conceptual model for an integrated social protection and Forecast-based Financing mechanism, inclusive of vertical and horizontal expansion, in order to effectively identify the most climate vulnerable groups and to guide the provision of targeted anticipatory actions. The mechanism is optimised when a people-centred approach is utilised, with reference to the idiosyncratic, lifecycle and corresponding intersectional vulnerabilities of the targeted population. These findings will contribute to prospective programming in Nepal; additionally, the extent to which they can be generalised will be informed by future applied efficacy studies and comparative analyses with research from differing contexts.
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Díaz, Buendia Yolanda. "“UCI extendida” Seguimiento de los pacientes críticos al alta del servicio de medicina intensiva del Hospital del Mar." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669594.
Full textAbstract:
La mejora en la atención y el cuidado del paciente crítico es un tema que al médico intensivista preocupa, con el objetivo de aumentar la efectividad y eficacia en el manejo de estos pacientes han surgido distintos programas de actuación que proponen una atención y un cuidado continuado a lo largo de todo su proceso asistencial.
La UCI sin paredes es la base de todas estas iniciativas. El concepto de UCI extendida se inicia en la detección y atención del paciente crítico fuera de la UCI, lo más precoz posible para mejorar su pronóstico, así como continuar con los cuidados durante su estancia en UCI, optimizando los mismos para disminuir las secuelas inherentes a los tratamientos que la UCI comporta. El proceso de Continuidad Asistencial continúa tras el alta de UCI, con el apoyo y soporte que el paciente requiera, para minimizar el salto cualitativo que a veces puede suponer el paso a la Unidad de Hospitalización convencional.
La hipótesis de esta Tesis Doctoral ha sido que la aplicación de un programa de seguimiento activo de los pacientes dados de alta de UCI tiene un efecto beneficioso en su evolución intrahospitalaria. Para demostrar dicha hipótesis se ha diseñado un estudio longitudinal, prospectivo, intervencionista, aplicado a la UCI del Hospital del Mar, en el que se han incluido todos los pacientes dados de alta del Servicio de Medicina Intensiva durante un periodo de 3 años. Se han recogido variables referentes a la situación basal del paciente previas al ingreso en UCI, durante el ingreso en UCI y al alta de UCI. Se realizó el seguimiento de estos pacientes, tras el alta de UCI, realizando distintas intervenciones según necesidades de cada paciente y los requerimientos del equipo asistencial de la Unidad de Hospitalización convencional. Se registraron las complicaciones en cuanto a la necesidad de reingreso y mortalidad.
De los resultados recabados se han obtenido las siguientes conclusiones: el programa de seguimiento activo del paciente crítico al alta de UCI disminuye el número de reingresos en el Servicio de Medicina Intensiva y reduce la mortalidad. La tasa de reingresos en UCI es del 8,3%. Los factores de riesgo que se relacionan con mayor riesgo de reingreso son: la edad, los índices de gravedad al ingreso y al alta, determinadas comorbilidades, el ingreso procedente desde la Unidad de Hospitalización convencional, determinados tratamientos durante el ingreso, determinados dispositivos al alta, las altas no programadas, determinados parámetros clínicos y analíticos. Los pacientes que reingresan tienen 5 veces más probabilidades de morir respecto a los que no reingresan. La tasa de mortalidad global al alta de UCI es del 9,2% y la tasa de mortalidad no esperada es del 1,8%. Los factores de riesgo que aumentan la probabilidad de fallecer tras el alta de UCI son: la edad, los días de estancia en UCI, los índices de gravedad al ingreso y al alta, determinadas comorbilidades, el ingreso procedente desde la Unidad de Hospitalización convencional, determinados tratamientos durante el ingreso, determinados dispositivos al alta, determinados parámetros clínicos y analíticos y el reingreso. Se cumplen los estándares de calidad de la SEMICYUC referentes al alta no programada, tasa de reingreso y razón estandarizada de mortalidad. El programa de seguimiento activo se ha consolidado a lo largo de los 3 años aumentando su efectividad y eficacia disminuyendo la tasa de reingresos, la tasa de mortalidad en UCI entre los pacientes que han requerido reingreso y mostrando una tendencia en la disminución de la mortalidad global hospitalaria.Better care after ICU admission is nowadays a challenge for intensive care physicians.The design of new programs and the offer of new ICU services reflect the intention to increase the effectivity and the efficiency of the treatment we give to the patient after an ICU admission and during their hospital admission. Critical care specialists have acquired new roles even out the walls of their ICU. “ICU without walls” is a concept designed to detect critical illness early, and to give a rapid response to resuscitate patients wherever the area they are in the hospital, with the intention to prevent, to improve the treatment and to give a continuation in the treatments received in the ICU previous to the discharge. All these strategies are implemented to improve de prognostic and to reduce the morbimorbidity associated to the critic patient. The existence of a follow-up program after the ICU discharge represents a strategy to give support to the patient and to the give support to the team that will receive the patient in the normal ward. This strategy is a way to reduce the difference in patient assistance between the ICU and the hospitalization ward. The hypothesis of this doctoral thesis is that the implementation of a Post-ICU follow-up program represents a significant benefit in the evolution of the patients during the hospital stay. To prove our hypothesis we designed a prospective, longitudinal and interventionist study that was applied in Hospital del Mar ICU. We included all the patients that were discharge alive from the ICU during three consecutive years. We collected demographic and clinical data from the period before ICU, during ICU stay and at the moment of ICU discharge. We performed a follow-up after patient discharge from the ICU. During the follow-up we could collaborate with the patient, the family and physicians to give support to the consolidation of the treatment that was started in the ICU and to improve the transmission between the ICU and the Hospitalization ward. Mortality and readmission were registered. From the study, we can say that the implementation of the follow-up program produced a decrease in the number of adverse effects after an ICU discharge. The number of readmission and the mortality after ICU admission decreased after de implementation of the program. The number of readmissions in ICU is 8.3% in the literature. The risks factors that can increase the risk of readmission are: age, severity index, organ dysfunction in the admissions and in the moment of discharge, some comorbidity, admission from the hospitalization ward, renal replacement therapy during the ICU stay, non-programed ICU discharge, ICU long admission. The global mortality rate in ICU is around 9.2% and the unexpected death is 1.8%. The risk factors that can contribute to die after ICU admission are: age, severity index at the admission and at the discharge, organ dysfunction at admission and discharge, comorbidities, ICU stay, admission from hospitalization ward, renal substitutive therapy, more than 10 days in mechanical ventilation, long ICU stay a readmission. During these period we could accomplish all the SEMICYUC parameters of quality: non programmed discharge from the ICU, the early readmission rate and the standardized Mortality Ratio. The follow-up program has been consolidated over 3 years, increasing its effectiveness by decreasing the rate of readmissions, reducing the mortality rate in the ICU among patients who have required readmission and showing a trend in the decrease in overall mortality.
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Oliveira, Dilton Dantas de. "Uma arquitetura baseada na teoria do perigo para predição de ataques de segurança em redes autonômicas." Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 2013. https://ri.ufs.br/handle/riufs/3356.
Full textAbstract:
The growth in the number of connected devices, in the volume of data traffic and of applications used has shown a significant increase in the complexity of today's networks,
leaving the activity of management increasingly difficult for network and system administrators. Management aspects, such as the security of these systems has been a major
challenge faced by the researchers, especially considering that, in parallel, there has been also a significant increase in the degree of sophistication of malicious activities. This scenario requires the development of sophisticated security systems also, in order to prevent or contain attacks increasingly destructive to systems, such as worm attacks. And the biological inspiration has been a main ally in this endeavor, bringing several concepts and new ways of thinking and solving these problems. This work used the bio-inspired concepts of Autonomic Networks (self-managing networks inspired by the functioning of the human nervous system)and Artificial Immune Systems (computer security systems inspired by the functioning of the human immune system), to define a management architecture for network self-protection, through the prediction of security attacks. This architecture incorporates the Danger Theory immune-inspired model and uses its Dendritic Cells algorithm to correlate events and detect anomalies. The architecture analysis was performed on an Early Warning System, which uses notifications received from worm already infected machines as additional information to identify the imminence of an infection in still vulnerable machines. In the experiments the gain in time obtained with this early identification was used in the Conficker worm propagation model and the results showed a reduction in the number of infected machines and, consequently, in the worm propagation across a networkO crescimento do número de dispositivos conectados, do volume de dados trafegados e das aplicações utilizadas tem evidenciado um aumento importante na complexidade das redes atuais, deixando a atividade de gerência cada vez mais difícil para os administradores de redes e sistemas. Aspectos de gerência, como a segurança desses sistemas tem sido um dos principais desafios enfrentados pelos pesquisadores, principalmente, considerando que, em paralelo, observa-se um também importante aumento no grau de sofisticação das atividades maliciosas. Tal cenário exige o desenvolvimento de sistemas de segurança igualmente sofisticados, com o intuito de impedir ou conter ataques cada vez mais destrutivos aos sistemas, como os ataques de worms. E a inspiração biológica tem sido uma das grandes aliadas nesta empreitada, trazendo diversos conceitos e novas formas de pensar e resolver esses problemas. Este trabalho utilizou os conceitos bio-inspirados das Redes Autonômicas (redes autogerenciáveis inspiradas nos funcionamento do sistema nervoso humano) e dos Sistemas Imunes Artificiais (sistemas de segurança computacional inspirados no funcionamento do sistema imunológico humano), para definir uma arquitetura de gerência para autoproteção de redes, através da predição de ataques de segurança. Tal arquitetura incorpora o modelo imuno-inspirado da Teoria do Perigo e utiliza o seu Algoritmo das Células Dendríticas para correlacionar eventos e detectar anomalias. A análise da arquitetura foi realizada em um Sistema de Alerta Antecipado, que usa notificações recebidas de máquinas já infectadas por worm como informação adicional para identificar a iminência de uma infecção em máquinas ainda vulneráveis. Nos experimentos o ganho de tempo obtido com essa identificação precoce foi utilizado no modelo de propagação do worm Conficker e os resultados apontaram uma redução no número de máquinas infectadas e, consequentemente, na propagação deste worm em uma rede