Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Input-output analysis Mathematical models'

The current environmental movement calls for a re-evaluation of many economic-ecologic relationships. The objective of this study is to identify industrial sectors and final demands most responsible for particular types of residual discharge and resource use. An economic-ecologic model was constructed for the Canadian economy from the Statistics Canada I-O as modified by Thomassin et al. (1992). This modified version with its 12 agricultural sectors and 16 food processing sectors is best suited for agricultural policy analysis. The model estimates national erosion, pesticide and fertilizer use as well as air and water pollutants, solid waste, and water use associated with specified economic activities.
Two different scenarios were analyzed. In the first, the impact on both the economy and the environment from changes in the final demand for agricultural and food commodities was simulated. Each commodity's final demand was increased by $1 million and its impact compared to the other simulated results. The ten commodities studied yielded similar economic impacts, while their environmental impacts differed considerably. Changes in the demand for wheat and oilseeds had the largest environmental impacts.
In the second scenario, the effects of a $1 million increase in each final demand category were compared. This scenario focussed on markets rather than products. The construction, exports and personal expenditures categories were the greatest generator of wastes and the largest user of free resources. The exports category yielded twice as much erosion than personal expenditures and twenty times more than the next highest value (construction).

The objective of this thesis is to study the combination of environmental Input-Output (IO) models with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) into a common framework which allows for regional/national environmental analyses meanwhile conserving process details. Our results show that this is possible by "adapting" the two methods: compiling LCI in matrix form and disaggregating as much as possible the IO tables. Given the poor data availability for detailed analyses at regional/national level, the results of this work suggest starting with a "traditional" IO analysis together with a Structural Path Analysis to identify the most polluting sectors and the paths through which the pollution is propagated. For the identified most polluting sectors, LCA data should be collected and fed into a tiered-hybrid IO-LCA model which gives the regional picture meanwhile conserves process details.

Al mercat globalitzat d’avui en dia la falta de coneixement sobre la distribució dels impactes entre els estats dificulta el disseny de polítiques efectives per la reducció, a escala global, de la degradació ambiental. L'objectiu d’aquesta tesi consisteix en la combinació de models macroeconòmics amb l’optimització multi-objectiu per facilitar la quantificació de càrregues ambientals, la distribució equitativa de responsabilitats i el disseny de polítiques públiques eficaces i sostenibles. Per aquest motiu aquí es proposen mètodes quantitatius basats en models input-output ampliats al medi ambient per estudiar la contribució de les nacions a les pressions ambientals globals, mitjançant l’estudi del cicle de vida dels productes que es consumeixen mundialment; les càrregues ambientals relacionades amb el comerç i l'equitat amb que es distribueixen els impactes. Els resultats poden ajudar a dissenyar polítiques eficaces per assegurar una justa assignació de responsabilitats. A més a més, aquesta tesi proposa un enfocament d'optimització multi-objectiu sistemàtic per minimitzar els impactes ambientals i, simultàniament, maximitzar la producció d’una economia. El model de programació lineal bi-criteri identifica els sectors clau que contribueixen significativament a l'impacte ambiental i que presenten una baixa producció econòmica. Els resultats mostren que amb les tecnologies existents i mitjançant un control adequat de la demanda dels sectors, els impactes ambientals es podrien reduir en major proporció que la producció econòmica. D’altra banda, aquesta tesi proposa un mètode basat en programació lineal per facilitar la presa de decisions en estudis ambientals de forma inversa. És a dir, donat un conjunt de solucions, aquest mètode obté els límits inferiors i superiors dels intervals dins dels quals els pesos de cada indicadors han de caure, de forma que l'alternativa seleccionada sigui òptima. D'aquesta manera, les persones encarregades de prendre decisions no estan obligades a proporcionar els pesos amb antelació, el que podria donar lloc a resultats esbiaixats.
En el mercado globalizado actual, la falta de conocimiento sobre cómo se distribuyen los impactos entre las naciones dificulta el diseño de políticas efectivas para la reducción, a escala global, de la degradación ambiental. El objetivo de esta tesis es combinar modelos macroeconómicos y optimización multiobjetivo para facilitar la cuantificación de cargas ambientales, la distribución equitativa de responsabilidades, y el diseño de políticas públicas eficaces que mejoren la sostenibilidad. Para ello, en esta tesis se proponen métodos cuantitativos basados en modelos input-output extendidos al medio ambiente para estudiar la contribución de las naciones a la presión ambiental global mediante el análisis del ciclo de vida de los productos que se consumen mundialmente, las cargas ambientales relacionadas con el comercio, y la equidad con que se distribuyen los impactos. Los hallazgos pueden ayudar a diseñar políticas eficaces para asegurar una asignación justa de responsabilidades. Además esta tesis propone un enfoque de optimización multiobjetivo sistemático para minimizar simultáneamente los impactos ambientales y maximizar la producción de una economía. El modelo de programación lineal bicriterio identifica los sectores clave que contribuyen significativamente al impacto y presentan una baja producción económica. Los resultados muestran que con las tecnologías existentes y controlando adecuadamente la demanda de ciertos sectores, los impactos ambientales podrían disminuir en mayor proporción que la producción económica. Además, esta tesis propone un método basado en programación lineal para facilitar la toma de decisiones ambientales mediante un análisis inverso. Es decir, dado un conjunto de soluciones, el método desarrollado busca los límites inferior y superior de los intervalos dentro de los cuales los pesos de cada indicador deben caer para que la alternativa seleccionada sea la óptima. De este modo, las personas encargadas de tomar decisiones no están obligadas a proporcionar los pesos de antemano, lo que podría conducir a resultados sesgados.
In today’s globalized market, the lack of knowledge about how the impacts distribute among nations hinders the design of effective policies for reducing the environmental degradation at a global scale. The aim of this thesis is to combine macroeconomic models with multi-objective optimization to facilitate the quantification of environmental loads, the fair allocation of responsibilities, and the design of effective public policies aiming at sustainability. To these end here we propose quantitative methods based on environmentally extended input-output models to study the contribution of nations to the global environmental pressures by examining the life cycle of products consumed worldwide; the trade-embodied environmental loads; and the equity with which impacts are distributed. Findings may help to design effective policies ensuring a fair allocation of responsibilities. This thesis also proposes a systematic multi-objective optimization approach for simultaneously minimizing the environmental impacts and maximizing the output of an economy. The bi-criteria linear programming model identifies key sectors with significant impact contribution and low output. Results show that, with the existing technologies, the environmental impacts could be lowered in higher proportion than the economic output by controlling adequately the demand of sectors. Moreover, this thesis proposes a method based on linear-programming to facilitate decision-making in environmental studies in an inverse manner. That is, given a set of solutions, this method finds the lower and upper limits of the intervals within which the weights to be attached to the indicators must fall, so that the selected alternative becomes optimal. Thereby, decision makers are not required to provide weights beforehand that could lead to biased results.

The thesis comprises five papers and an introductory overview of applied models and methods. The papers concern interdependences and interrelations in models applied to empirical analyses of various problems related to production, consumption, location and trade. Among different definitions of 'structural analysis' one refers to the study of the properties of economic models on the assumption of invariant structural relations, this definition is close to what is aimed at in lire present case. Although the subjects cover widely differing aspects of the economic system, applied models and methods, i.e. entropy maximizing (information minimizing) models and random utility maximizing models, are in many cases closely connected. Tlic first paper reports on a regional input-ouput study applied to Norrbotten, Sweden. The paper is mainly concentrated on developing and estimating an econometric model, describing the structural interdependences in the Norrbotten economy. The chapter is composed of three parts. The first part concerns the theoretical basis of the model, the main fields of application and principal problems in connection with the estimation. The core of the estimated model is defined by the intersectoral dependences in the Norrbotten economy. This model can be viewed as a part of a more general model of the regional economy, and such a general model is briefly outlined. The second part reports on the collection and arranging of data, and the methods used for the estimation of the model. In the third part the results are presented. A special interest concerns the effects of production changes in the basic industries in the county, as to the expected impact on different industries and occupational groups. The second paper concerns some aspects of the problem of predicting trade flows in the forest sector. The model, based on information theory, is predicting current trade flows by adjusting the historical, a priori, trade flows to satisfy current export and import totals. In the third paper an entropy model is employed to decompose the interregional and intraregional employment change in Sweden and Stockholm, during the period 1960 - 1980, into effects attributed to regions (zones), industries, occupations and interaction effects. The fourth paper presents an empirical analysis of housing choice, based on individual data of households in Stockholm. The consumer choice is regarded as a complex choice from a finite set of discrete alternatives and a probabilistic choice mode! (multinomial logit) is employed, where secondary dwelling is included in the housing choice decision. In the final paper spectral analysis is used for identifying the significant components of cycle behaviour in time series of Swedish exports of forest products over a twenty year time period.
digitalisering@umu

Politics' demand for informative consumption-based emission assessments based on multi-regional input output (MRIO) databases is steadily increasing. Based on the MRIO database EXIOBASE 3, we exemplify the utility of a range of analytical tools and discus their potential insights for consumption-based policies. The analysis decomposes the overall EU carbon footprint into product groups as well as into emitting regions. Subsequently, we illustrate the potential of applying production layer decomposition (PLD) and structural path analysis (SPA) for the assessment of global supply-chains related to the EU carbon footprint and their structural changes over time. We close with some policy ecommendations on reducing carbon footprint hot spots.
Series: Ecological Economic Papers

In various international policy processes such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, an urgent demand for robust consumption-based indicators of material flows, or material footprints (MFs), has emerged over the past years. Yet, MFs for national economies diverge when calculated with different Global Multiregional Input-Output (GMRIO) databases, constituting a significant barrier to a broad policy uptake of these indicators. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of data deviations between GMRIO databases on the resulting MF. We use two methods, structural decomposition analysis and structural production layer decomposition, and apply them for a pairwise assessment of three GMRIO databases, EXIOBASE, Eora, and the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) database, using an identical set of material extensions. Although all three GMRIO databases accord for the directionality of footprint results, that is, whether a countries' final demand depends on net imports of raw materials from abroad or is a net exporter, they sometimes show significant differences in level and composition of material flows. Decomposing the effects from the Leontief matrices (economic structures), we observe that a few sectors at the very first stages of the supply chain, that is, raw material extraction and basic processing, explain 60% of the total deviations stemming from the technology matrices. We conclude that further development of methods to align results from GMRIOs, in particular for material-intensive sectors and supply chains, should be an important research priority. This will be vital to strengthen the uptake of demand-based material flow indicators in the resource policy context.

Disruptions to the freight transportation system are costly due to freight's critical relationship to economic productivity. This research will analyze the current methods of estimating the economic impacts of disruptions to the freight transportation system. A review of existing literature will be conducted with the intent of finding methods that address different types of disruptions and impacts. Due to varying economic scopes and disruptions studied, the results will likely indicate a broad range of methodologies and trends. The results will be used to better understand the different approaches taken when quantifying the economic impacts of disruptions and therefore enable more informed policy, regulation and investment.

Avui en dia, dur a terme estudis ambientals requereix una gran quantitat de dades i de temps, la qual cosa dificulta l’adopció dels principis de sostenibilitat en el disseny dels productes. A més, ha augmentat l’externalització dels impactes ambientals, el que afavoreix el desplaçament de les tasques de fabricació cap a països amb regulacions ambientals menys severes. Per tant, el desenvolupament de polítiques ambientals senzilles i eficaces s'ha convertit en un repte. L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar un conjunt de mètodes sistemàtics per a l'avaluació i optimització de mètriques ambientals des d'una perspectiva sostenible tant a escala macroeconòmica com a escala industrial. Amb aquest fi, en primer lloc realitzem una anàlisi estadística multivariable utilitzant dades ambientals amb l’objectiut d'avaluar la relació entre les diferents mètriques ambientals i per identificar patrons d'impacte ambiental de països. Això ens permet identificar les mètriques ambientals més representatives que reduiran la quantitat de dades necessària per a l'elaboració d'estudis ambientals. A més, hem desenvolupat un model d'optimització multiobjetiu per identificar quins sectors d'una economia han de regular-se en primer lloc per reduir l'impacte mediambiental a nivell global provocant els mínims canvis possibles en aquesta economia. L'ús combinat d'aquestes eines aclareix com es generen els impactes ambientals i com dissenyar polítiques ambientals senzilles i eficaces tant a escala industrial com global.
Hoy en día, realizar estudios ambientales requiere una gran cantidad de datos y de tiempo, lo que dificulta la adopción de los principios de sostenibilidad en el diseño de productos. Además, hay un aumento en la externalización de impactos ambientales que favorece el traslado de la fabricación a países con regulaciones ambientales menos severas. Por lo tanto, el desarrollo de políticas ambientales sencillas y eficaces se ha convertido en un reto. El objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar un conjunto de métodos sistemáticos para la evaluación y optimización de métricas ambientales desde una perspectiva sostenible tanto a escala macroeconómica como a escala industrial. Para ello, en primer lugar realizamos un análisis estadístico multivariante utilizando datos ambientales con el fin de evaluar la relación entre las diferentes métricas ambientales y para identificar patrones de impacto ambiental de países. Esto nos permite identificar las métricas ambientales más representativas que reducirán la cantidad de datos necesaria para la elaboración de estudios ambientales. Además, hemos desarrollado un modelo de optimización multiobjetivo para identificar que sectores de una economía deben regularse en primer lugar con el fin de reducir el impacto medioambiental a nivel global provocando los mínimos cambios posibles en dicha economía. El uso combinado de estas herramientas clarifica cómo se generan los impactos ambientales y cómo diseñar políticas ambientales sencillas y eficaces tanto a escala industrial como global.
Nowadays, conducting environmental studies has become data intensive and time consuming which hinders the widespread adoption of sustainability principles in the design of products. In addition, there is an increase in externalization of environmental impacts which favors the displacement of manufacturing tasks to countries with softer environmental regulations. Therefore, the development of simple and effective environmental policies has become a challenging task. The aim of this thesis is to develop a set of systematic methods for assessing and optimizing environmental metrics from a sustainable perspective at both, the macroeconomic and engineering scales. To this end, we first conduct a multivariate statistical analysis using environmental data in order to assess relationships between environmental metrics and to identify environmental impact patterns of countries. This allows us to identify proxy environmental metrics which will reduce the amount of data required for the implementation of environmental studies. Moreover, we develop a multi-objective optimization model to identify which economic sectors must be regulated first in order to reduce the environmental impact at a global scale with minimum changes in an economy. The combined use of these tools sheds light on how the environmental impacts are generated and how to design environmental policies in a simple and effective way at engineering and global scales.

In the past decade, cooperative communications has been emerging as a pertinent technology for the current and upcoming generations of mobile communication infrastructure. The indispensable benefits of this technology have motivated numerous studies from both academia and industry on this area. In particular, cooperative communications has been developed as a means of alleviating the effect of fading and hence improve the reliability of wireless communications. The key idea behind this technique is that communication between the source and destination can be assisted by several intermediate nodes, so-called relay nodes. As a result, cooperative communication networks can enhance the reliability of wireless communications where the transmitted signals are severely impaired because of fading. In addition, through relaying transmission, communication range can be extended and transmit power of each radio terminal can be reduced as well. The objective of this thesis is to analyze the system performance of cooperative relay networks integrating advanced radio transmission techniques and using the two major relaying protocols, i.e., decode-and-forward (DF) and amplify-and-forward (AF). In particular, the radio transmission techniques that are considered in this thesis include multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems and orthogonal space-time block coding (OSTBC) transmission, adaptive transmission, beamforming transmission, coded cooperation, and cognitive radio transmission. The thesis is divided into an introduction section and six parts based on peer-reviewed journal articles and conference papers. The introduction provides the readers with some fundamental background on cooperative communications along with several key concepts of cognitive radio systems. In the first part, performance analysis of cooperative single and multiple relay networks using MIMO and OSTBC transmission is presented wherein the diversity gain, coding gain, outage probability, symbol error rate, and channel capacity are assessed. It is shown that integrating MIMO and OSTBC transmission into cooperative relay networks provides full diversity gain. In the second part, the performance benefits of MIMO relay networks with OSTBC and adaptive transmission strategies are investigated. In the third part, the performance improvement with respect to outage probability of coded cooperation applied to opportunistic DF relay networks over conventional cooperative networks is shown. In the fourth part, the effects of delay of channel state information feedback from the destination to the source and co-channel interference on system performance is analyzed for beamforming AF relay networks. In the fifth part, cooperative diversity is investigated in the context of an underlay cognitive AF relay network with beamforming. In the sixth part, finally, the impact of the interference power constraint on the system performance of multi-hop cognitive AF relay networks is investigated.

O principal objetivo desta tese foi avaliar o desempenho das atividades do setor de flores de corte, com relação à integração da cadeia e à competitividade no mercado externo, assim como aprimorar o entendimento das contribuições e entraves da logística para a floricultura. Para tal foi desenvolvido um modelo insumo-produto que se revelou como ferramenta importante para avaliar os impactos de alterações nos processos que fazem parte dessa cadeia de exportação. Foi realizada coleta de dados junto a agentes representativos da cadeia de flores, localizados na região de Holambra e na Grande São Paulo, relacionados a cada uma das fases associadas aos processos de exportação de gérbera e lírio, ou seja, desde a produção (A), passando pela distribuição interna via modal rodoviário (B), distribuição externa via modal aéreo (C) e distribuição externa via modal rodoviário (D). Para caracterizar situações de déficit e superávit logísticos e avaliar os impactos de falhas em cada um dos processos da cadeia de flores de corte, foram construídos cinco cenários. Na sua composição foram identificados parâmetros técnicos, principalmente relacionados à logística, que pudessem interferir na exportação de flores de corte. Os valores de três deles - número de hastes por caixa, taxa de câmbio e frete aéreo - foram alterados e combinados, constituindo 36 simulações para auxiliar na análise desses cenários. Os resultados obtidos sinalizaram para a necessidade de ajustes logísticos diferenciados em cada um dos processos, variando em função do tipo de relacionamento estabelecido entre os agentes envolvidos nas diferentes etapas. O desempenho da cadeia como um todo pode ser afetado pela falta de conhecimento sobre as características do produto exportado, que gera distorções nas informações repassadas para os agentes da cadeia. Verificou-se que as falhas ocorridas em cada etapa podem aumentar significativamente os custos e inibir as exportações em situações mais desfavoráveis do câmbio. Por outro lado, o aumento no número de hastes comercializadas por caixa representou uma alternativa para amenizar o incremento de custos ao longo da cadeia. Apesar da produção caracterizar-se como elo importante entre todas as etapas, se não forem verificadas condições mínimas para armazenamento e transporte adequados, poderão ocorrer perdas significativas no volume comercializado, com redução da competitividade desse produto no exterior e não continuidade de sua exportação no longo prazo. Assim sendo, confirmou-se que a integração da cadeia é essencial para a otimização dos processos de exportação de flores, incluindo a maximização dos resultados econômicos e financeiros relacionados a esse segmento de negócios.
The main objectives of this thesis were to evaluate the performance of the cut flower sector, concerning supply chain integration and external market competitiveness, and to heighten the understanding of the contributions and obstacles of logistics to floriculture. An input-output model developed proved to be an important tool to evaluate the impact of changes in the processes involved in that exportation chain. Data were colleted from representative players of the flower chain, in the Holambra and Greater Sao Paulo regions, referring to every one of the stages associated to the gerbera and lily exportation processes, i.e., from production (A), to internal distribution by highway modal (B), to external distribution by airway modal (C) and to external distribution by highway modal (D). Five scenarios were built to analyze deficit and surplus situations and to evaluate the impact of failures occurring in each process of the cut flower chain. Technical parameters were identified in the scenarios composition, mainly related to logistics, that could interfere in the cut flower exportation. The values of three of them – number of stems by box, exchange rate and air freight – were modified and combined to create 36 simulations to support the analysis of those scenarios. The results point to the need for differentiated logistic adjusts in each process, according to the type of relationship established among the players involved in the stages. The development of the chain as a whole may be affected by lack of knowledge on the characteristics of the exported product, which causes distortions in the information forwarded to the players. It was verified that the failures occurring in each phase could increase costs and inhibit exportations in the event of unfavorable exchange rate movements. On the other hand, an increased stem number commercialized by box represented an alternative to assuage cost increases through the chain. Although production is characterized as an important link throughout all stages, unless the minimum conditions for adequate storage and transport are fulfilled, there will be significant losses in the commercialized volume, thus reducing this product competitiveness abroad and discontinuing its exportation in the long run. Therefore, it was corroborated that the integration of the chain is essential to the optimization of flower exportation, including the maximization of the economic and financial results related to this business segment.

The increasing volume of solid waste (SW), not only arising from household (Municipal SW, MSW) but also from industrial process (Industrial SW, ISW), has become a serious issue in Chinese metropolises with the economic growth, urbanization, industrialization, and increasing affluence. Growth of industry leads to the expansion of population, while the augment of demand by increasing population stimulates the industrial growth in turn, thereby increasing not only ISW generation, but also MSW generation. Therefore, in order to solve the waste problem for the construction of sustainable waste management system in a city, it is necessary to consider these two types of waste together, in which, the emphasis should be focused on waste reduction from the source. The starting point in adopting this should be a good understanding of the upstream flow of waste and accurate knowledge of the volume and composition of waste that will be generated in the future. However, due to deficient historical records and complex production process, the effective attempts at forecasting SW generation are far from enough, especially for ISW by waste category. A common approach which is based on the limited waste statistics and can be easily popularized into Chinese countries is thus urgent. This paper, therefore, attempts the construction of a systematic approach to make projections of SW generation by waste category from the following issues: (1) to develop household consumer behaviour model taking into account lifestyle of residents and project the demand of private consumption in the future; (2) to quantitatively investigate and project MSW generation fully considering the change in consumer behaviour and waste management policies; (3) to effectively evaluate the present and future industrial structure and their contributions to ISW generation among industries; (4) to carry out a scenario analysis of calculating CO2 emissions in different waste treatment options based on the projected waste quantity and composition in 2015. The approach is applied on a city level as the basic administrative unit of SW management in China. The entire framework comprises four modules-regional macro-economic module, MSW generation module, ISW generation module, and waste treatment module. Further, the study of consumption pattern conducted from the consumer behaviour model in MSW module is a prerequisite for industrial restructuring caused by change in consumption demand in ISW module. Moreover, the regional macro-economic module is to provide a means for economic structural analysis and economic forecasting, considering the influence of national GDP and socioeconomic indicators including world trade. It is found out that the regional model fits the historical records reasonably well and provides an acceptable reproduction. In the MSW generation module for estimating and projecting MSW generation, firstly the per capita total household consumption expenditure is estimated by using total consumption expenditure model; then, household consumption pattern is estimated using an extension of the linear expenditure system (LES); thereafter, MSW generation by composition is quantitatively expressed in terms of the expenditure for consumption category and waste management policies by using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, five Chinese cities with distinct economic levels are presented by applying the module to determine the waste generation features in different regions. The research findings clearly indicate that 1) the number of variables affecting consumer behaviour in Chinese cities is not one but the integrations of a series of indicators. Aside from Shanghai, saving rate towards consumption (SAV) and natural growth rate (NAGR) are currently the two common factors. However, in Shanghai, consumer behaviour is strongly influenced by SAV and the average number of persons per household (ANPH). 2) The MSW generation model quantitatively demonstrates the linear conversion process from consumption to corresponding waste generation in all cities. For example, education and consumption of food-as the form of consumption expenditure in this research-is the source of generation of food, plastic and paper waste. Further, glass and metal waste is estimated by food expenditure in all cities. 3) Total MSW generation per unit consumption is 0.198~0.225 kg/RMB with an average value of 0.213 kg/RMB. 4) All the waste management policies analyzed in the research will provide feasible experiences or valuable lessons to other Chinese cities. 5) Volume of per capita MSW generated in 2020 will be 1.24-2.18 folds compared to that in 2008 in each city if there were no effective policies implemented advancing to diminishing waste generation. Then, for the forecasting of ISW generation of each waste category by industry, the ISW module is developed, linking three principal models-regional macro-economic model, regional input-output (IO) analysis, and ISW generation model. The approach investigates the influence of industrial restructuring on ISW generation, based on the study of consumption patterns, export composition figures and change in ISW generation coefficient. The principal priorities in the case study on Shanghai are as follows: 1) the approach provides an idea for a way to quantitatively analyze industrial restructuring by adjusting the converter that, in turn, helps assess the impact of these changes on sectoral output. 2) A sensitivity analysis describes that per yuan of increase in consumption on FOOD, CLSH, FUNI, EDUC, TRAN, HLTH and RESI induces to an average increase of 76.41, 76.16, 82.28, 106.54, 93.89, 148.30 and 292.58 g total ISW, respectively. 3) It is verified that ISW generation not only arises from economic growth but also from the onset of industrial restructuring. The unit ISW generation per gross output reduces from 0.16 to 0.14 tons/10 000 RMB as we move from 2002 to 2020. 4) It is investigated that the total volume of ISW generated in 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be 2.07, 2.83 and 4.12 times that of the 2002 levels. The total SW generation of Shanghai in 2020 will be 4.06 times of that in 2002. 5) However, if considering scenario analysis of adjusting ISW generation coefficient, the total SW generation is 1.93 times compared to 2002 and ISW is 2.18 times of MSW generation. 6) Based on our results, the industrial sectors making the biggest contribution to the production of each type of ISW can each be separately identified. Therefore, constraining specific industries or penetrating them with selective technological changes will be useful attempts on the way to meeting the objectives of overall waste reduction. Finally, in the waste treatment module, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emitting from the treatment and disposal of waste, including landfill site, waste-to-energy incineration and composting are calculated, respectively. Further, based on the projection of waste quantity and composition of Shanghai in 2015, a scenario analysis is carried out as well concerning the GHG emissions from alternative treatment options. The results confirm that composting and recycling of waste before the treatment are effective attempts at reducing GHG emissions in Shanghai. Further, scenario designed as the integrated waste treatment system makes the biggest reduction of GHG emissions, as 34% as compared to current treatment options with energy recovery. In a word, this research develops the entire systematic approach investigating the upstream flow of waste generation from the viewpoint of economic growth, change in socioeconomic indicators and constitution of waste management policies, and makes a reasonable attempt at projecting SW generation of each type of waste category. Based on the results, it is suggested that for the waste reduction to promote sustainable society, government interventions including promoting green consumption, reducing extra consumption, et al. and waste policies such as increasing recycling and penetrating technological innovation in specific industries will be effective. Further, based on the forecasts of SW generation, the recycling and appropriate treatment of waste generating from municipal and industrial process can be examined from the long view. From the relationship between ISW and MSW generation, the development of industry will promote the growth of service industry and induce greater generation of recyclable items. While the recycling of these items before the waste treatment is essential for effectively reducing GHG emissions which contribute to global warming. In addition, the systematic model can be easily popularized into other Chinese cities even other Asian developing cities, thereby possibly promoting the sustainable waste management of China and Asian countries.
Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(工学)
甲第14928号
工博第3155号
新制||工||1473(附属図書館)
27366
UT51-2009-M842
京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻
(主査)教授 松岡 譲, 教授 森澤 眞輔, 准教授 倉田 学児
学位規則第4条第1項該当

The present study consists of two independent essays that approach two types of inequality on the state of Bahia which, although being related, have distinct features. The first essay sought to understand the dynamics of production and income disparities between the micro regions of the state of Bahia and to decompose the regional employment growth between 2004-2014, using the Williamson’s coefficient and the shift-share analysis. The results showed that there was a reduction of the interregional inequality of income in the Brazilian territory of Bahia, as well as the reallocation of the formal employment by the productive activities in the micro regions. On the other hand, the second essay brings a discussion about the productive structure influence on the changes in the interpersonal income distribution in the Brazilian State of Bahia. In this case, the base of the analysis is the application of Leontief-Miyazawa’s (1976) model and the impact measurement of exogenous changes on the income. For this purpose, we used data from an input-output matrix of the Bahia state for the year 2009 (PEROBELLI et al., 2015), as well as information about families consumption and income from Household Budge Survey – POF 2002/2003 – and the National Household Sampling Survey – PNAD 2009. Following, we run two simulations aiming to analyze the income’s transfer impact, respectively, on poor and extremely poor families, and the measurement of the Gini's coefficients. The results suggest that the productive sectors present different capacities among themselves to cause changes upon the income distribution, and that governmental transfer cause the reduction of income inequality in the Brazilian State of Bahia.
A presente dissertação é composta por dois ensaios independentes que abordam dois tipos de desigualdade no estado da Bahia que, embora estejam inter-relacionados, possuem caráter distinto. Assim, o primeiro ensaio buscou compreender a dinâmica das disparidades produtiva e de renda entre as microrregiões do estado da Bahia e decompor o crescimento regional do emprego entre os anos 2004 e 2014, utilizando, respectivamente, o coeficiente de Williamson e a análise diferencial-estrutural. Os resultados obtidos revelaram que houve redução da desigualdade inter-regional de renda no território baiano, bem como a realocação do emprego formal gerado pelas atividades produtivas em suas microrregiões. Por sua vez, o segundo ensaio apresenta a discussão acerca da influência da estrutura produtiva sobre as alterações na distribuição interpessoal de renda no estado da Bahia. Nesse caso, a análise está centrada na aplicação do modelo de insumo-produto de Leontief-Miyazawa (1976), a partir do qual foram estimados os impactos de mudanças exógenas sobre a renda. Para tanto, foram utilizados os dados da matriz insumo-produto da Bahia para o ano-base de 2009 (PEROBELLI et al., 2015), bem como as informações de consumo e rendimento das famílias obtidas, respectivamente, por meio da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiares (POF 2002/2003) e da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD 2009). Na sequência, foram realizadas duas simulações visando analisar o impacto da redução nas transferências de renda (benefícios previdenciários e programas de transferências direta), respectivamente, às famílias pobres e extremamente pobres, e calculados os indicadores de desigualdade de Gini. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que os setores produtivos possuem capacidades distintas entre si de provocar mudanças sobre a distribuição de renda, e que as transferências governamentais atuam como redutores das desigualdades de rendimentos no estado.
São Cristóvão, SE

Enforcing security policies to distributed systems is difficult, in particular, when a system contains untrusted components. We designed AspectKE*, a distributed AOP language based on a tuple space, to tackle this issue. In AspectKE*, aspects can enforce access control policies that depend on future behavior of running processes. One of the key language features is the predicates and functions that extract results of static program analysis, which are useful for defining security aspects that have to know about future behavior of a program. AspectKE* also provides a novel variable binding mechanism for pointcuts, so that pointcuts can uniformly specify join points based on both static and dynamic information about the program. Our implementation strategy performs fundamental static analysis at load-time, so as to retain runtime overheads minimal. We implemented a compiler for AspectKE*, and demonstrate usefulness of AspectKE* through a security aspect for a distributed chat system.

The convenience of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), over conventional Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA), has seen to its increasing popularity over the last decade for the purpose of evaluating dynamic properties of structures. OMA features an advantage of requiring only output information, which is in tandem with its main drawback of lacking scaled modeshape information. While correctly scaled modeshapes can be assumed under a restrictive assumption of spectrally white inputs, in reality, input spectra are at best broadband in nature. In this thesis, an OMA method for Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) applications in mechanical structures is developed. The aim is to separate MIMO responses into a collection of Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) processes (matrix FRF) using cepstral-based methods, under less restrictive and hence more realistic coloured broadband excitation. Existing cepstral curve-fitting techniques can be subsequently applied to give regenerated FRFs with correct relative scaling. This cepstral-based method is based on the matrix Mean Differential Cepstrum (MDC) and operates in the frequency domain. Application of the matrix MDC onto MIMO responses leads to a matrix differential equation which together with the use of finite differences, directly solves or identifies the matrix FRF in a propagative manner. An alternative approach based on whitened MIMO responses can be similarly formulated for the indirect solution of the matrix FRF. Both the direct and indirect approaches can be modified with a Taylor series approximation to give a total of four propagative solution sequences. The method is developed using relatively simple simulated and experimental systems, involving both impulsive and burst random excitations. Detailed analysis of the results is performed using more complicated Single-Input Multiple-Output (SIMO) and MIMO systems, involving both driving and non-driving point measurements. The use of the matrix MDC method together with existing cepstral curve-fitting technique to give correct relative scaling is demonstrated on a simulated MIMO system with coloured inputs. Accurate representation of the actual FRFs is achieved by the matrix MDC technique for SIMO set-ups. In MIMO scenarios, excellent identification was obtained for the case of simulated impulsive input while the experimental and burst random input cases were less favourable. The results show that the matrix MDC technique works in MIMO scenarios, but possible noise-related issues need to be addressed in both experimental and burst random input cases for a more satisfactory identification outcome.

Bibliography: p. 199-207. Electronic publication; full text available in PDF format; abstract in HTML format. Describes the basis of a theoretical and experimental project, directed at the design and evaluation of a practical active noise control system suitable for a single light engine aircraft. The performance of virtual sensors were evaluated both analytically and experimentally in progressively more complex environments to identify their capabilities and limitations. Electronic reproduction.[Australia] :Australian Digital Theses Program,2001.

Tese de doutoramento em Sistemas de Energia Sustentável, apresentada ao Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra
As relações entre o consumo de energia, o crescimento econômico e os impactos ambientais são determinantes para o processo de formulação de políticas. A Análise Input-Output (AIO) tem sido usada para estudar inter/intra-relações entre os diferentes setores económicos, bem como estendida para a análise dos sistemas energético e ambiental. Modelos de Programação Linear Multi-objetivo (PLMO) utilizando a estrutura Input-Output (IO) também vêm sendo desenvolvidos para estudar os compromissos (trade-offs) entre os sistemas económico, energético e ambiental. Os modelos IO-PLMO são capazes de captar a complexidade e natureza conflituosa dos problemas do mundo real, permitindo a obtenção de um informação relevante que não seria possível conseguir com uma aplicação separada de ambas as metodologias. Esta combinação de modelos de PLMO e AIO desempenha um papel complementar na compreensão das interações entre os sistemas económicos e energéticos, e os correspondentes impactos ambientais, oferecendo um quadro consistente para avaliar os efeitos de políticas distintas sobre estes sistemas. Um modelo de PLMO baseado em uma estrutura IO híbrida com unidades monetárias e físicas é apresentado nesta tese. Este modelo tem como objetivo avaliar os trade-offs entre objectivos económicos, energéticos, ambientais e sociais no sistema económico brasileiro. Primeiramente, as tabelas IO para o Brasil são reorganizadas para incluir o Balanço Energético Nacional, criando uma estrutura IO híbrida com unidades físicas e monetárias. Este quadro é estendido para avaliar diferentes Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE), que são então agregados em um único indicador (CO2eq), e o nível de emprego. Duas versões do modelo de PLMO são definidas: uma versão com valores determinísticos e outra em que a programação intervalar é usada para tratar a incerteza em alguns coeficientes do modelo. A versão determinística do modelo tem 443 variáveis (incluindo a produção dos setores e produtos energéticos e várias variáveis econômicas) e um conjunto de 490 restrições (definidoras e limitadoras). As funções objetivo consideradas são a maximização dos níveis do PIB e do emprego, bem como a minimização do consumo de energia e emissões de GEE. Os métodos interativos STEM e o TRIMAP são aplicados para tratar a versão determinística do modelo, permitindo a exploração de soluções de compromisso de acordo com as informações de preferência emitidas pelo decisor. O STEM permitiu um processo de busca de solução interativa através da redução da região admissível baseada na especificação de quantidades de relação para as função objetivo com valores já satisfatórios, fornecendo informações sobre os trade-offs entre os objetivos conflitantes em diferentes regiões da região admissível. O método interativo TRIMAP ofereceu uma pesquisa flexível de soluções através de um ambiente gráfico amigável baseada na visualização das regiões de indiferença associadas a soluções vértices eficientes no diagrama paramétrico, permitindo uma exploração progressiva e seletiva de soluções de compromisso. Ambos os métodos forneceram informações de apoio à decisão relevante para um decisor hipotético, ajudando-o na compreensão dos trade-offs em jogo e na identificação de soluções de compromisso para os modelos de PLMO. A versão intervalar do modelo IO-PLMO híbrido, que inclui 518 restrições e 473 variáveis, é analisada com uma abordagem interativa que envolve a formulação de modelos determinísticos substitutos para o modelo de PLMO intervalar (baseado na minimização do pior desvio possível das funções objetivo intervalar em relação as suas soluções ideais intervalares correspondentes) e de uma fase interativa em que a sinergia entre o algoritmo (prestando informações ao decisor) e o decisor (processando as informações e fornecendo orientações para o processo de cálculo) facilitando um processo de pesquisa com base na proximidade dos valores da solução intervalar em relação à solução intervalar ideal. Perspectivas otimistas e pessimistas foram consideradas a fim de procurar soluções com diferentes alternativas de decisão. Finalmente, os impactos de diferentes processos de cultivo de cana de açúcar e de produção de bioetanol de primeira (1G) e segunda geração (2G) sobre o sistema económico brasileiro e a oferta doméstica de bioetanol em cenários prospetivos foram analisados com a versão determinística do modelo de PLMO. Coeficientes técnicos para diferentes configurações de usinas de bioetanol de produção combinada de 1G + 2G e sistemas de cultivo da cana foram estimados e introduzidos na matriz de coeficientes técnicos. As funções objetivo foram a maximização do PIB e do emprego, e a minimização do consumo de energia e das emissões totais de GEE. A maximização da produção total de bioetanol no país em cada cenário também foi considerado. Soluções não-dominadas foram calculadas através da minimização da distância de Tchebycheff para a solução ideal em cada cenário. A extensão da análise envolvendo todo o sistema económico veio complementar o desenho e a análise baseada em processos potenciais de produção de bioetanol, contribuindo para identificar efeitos indiretos que podem contrabalançar os benefícios. Esta tese fornece modelos, metodologias e conhecimento baseado na avaliação das soluções obtidas com diferentes processos de cálculo, que é essencial para o desenvolvimento de abordagens integradas para a análise prospetiva dos trade-offs económico-energético-ambiental em um país e em um setor específico.
The study and assessment of the relationships between energy consumption, economic growth and environmental impacts is determinant for the policy making process. Input-Output Analysis (IOA) has been used to study inter/intra-relationships among different sectors in the economic system and extended to account for energy and environmental impacts. Multi-objective Linear Programming (MOLP) models using the Input-Output (IO) framework has also been developed to study economic-energy-environment trade-offs. The IO-MOLP models are able to capture the complexity and conflicting nature of real world problems allowing obtaining insightful information that would not be possible to achieve with a separated application of both methodologies. This combination of multi-objective models with IOA plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies. A MOLP model based on a hybrid IO framework with monetary and physical units is presented in this thesis. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. Firstly, the IO tables for Brazil are reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework. This framework is extended to assess different Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, which are then aggregated into a single indicator (CO2eq), and the employment level. Two versions of the MOLP model are defined: a version with deterministic values and another one in which interval programming techniques are used for tackling the uncertainty in some coefficients of the model. The deterministic version of the model has 443 variables (including the total output of sectors and energy commodities and several economic variables) and a set of 490 (defining and bound) constraints. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP and employment levels, and the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. The STEM and TRIMAP interactive methods are applied to the deterministic version of the model, allowing the exploration of compromise solutions according to the preference information issued by the decision maker (DM). STEM allows an interactive solution search process through the reduction of the feasible region based on the specification of relaxation quantities for the already satisfactory objective functions, thus providing information about the trade-offs that are at stake between the competing objectives in different regions of the search space. The TRIMAP interactive method offers a flexible search for solutions in a user-friendly graphical environment based on the display of indifference regions associated with vertex efficient solutions on the parametric diagram, allowing a progressive and selective exploration of compromise solutions. Both methods have provided relevant decision support information to a hypothetical DM assisting him/her in understanding the trade-offs at stake and identifying compromise solutions to the MOLP models. The interval version of the hybrid IO-MOLP model, which includes 518 constraints and 473 variables, is analyzed with an interactive approach involving the formulation of surrogate deterministic models for the interval MOLP model (based on the minimization of the worst possible deviation of the interval objective functions to their corresponding interval ideal solutions) and an interactive phase in which a synergy between the algorithm (providing information to the DM) and the DM (processing the information and providing guidelines for the computation process). This approach has allowed a reference point searching process based on the closeness of the values of the interval solution in relation to the ideal interval solution. Optimistic and pessimistic perspectives have been considered in order to search for solutions using different decision alternatives. Finally, impacts of different sugarcane cultivation and first-generation (1G) and second-generation (2G) bioethanol production processes on the Brazilian economic system and domestic bioethanol supply in prospective scenarios are analyzed with the deterministic version of the MOLP model. Technical coefficients for different configurations of combined 1G+2G bioethanol plants and sugarcane cultivation are estimated and introduced into the Brazilian technical coefficient matrix. The objective functions are the maximization of GDP and employment level, and the minimization of total energy consumption and GHG emissions. The maximization of the total bioethanol production in the country in each scenario is also considered. Non-dominated solutions are computed by minimizing a Tchebycheff distance to the ideal solution in each scenario. Extending the analysis to the whole economic system has complemented the process design and process-based analysis of prospective bioethanol production, contributing to identify indirect effects that can counterbalance the benefits. This thesis provides models, methodologies and knowledge based on the assessment of the solutions obtained in the different computation processes that is essential for the development of integrated approaches for prospective analysis of economic-energy-environmental trade-offs in a country and a specific sector.
FCT - SFRH/BD/42960/2008