To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Inflation.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Inflation'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Inflation.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Lozanov, Kaloian Dimitrov. "Expansion after inflation and reheating with a charged inflaton." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2017. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/267822.
Full textAbstract:
Within the inflationary paradigm, our patch of the universe near the end of inflation is highly homogeneous and isotropic as necessitated by cosmic microwave background observations. This patch, however, is also in a cold and non-thermal state. A successful model of an inflationary primordial universe should account for how the universe transitioned from an inflationary to a radiation-dominated, hot, thermal phase required for the production of light elements via big-bang nucleosynthesis. It is desirable for such a model also to include a mechanism for the generation of the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry and perhaps a primordial mechanism for the generation of cosmic magnetic fields. The transition from an inflationary to a radiation-dominated, thermal phase (reheating) is likely to be phenomenologically rich. Reheating could include explosive particle production and various other non-perturbative, non-linear and non-equilibrium phenomena. Reheating can leave its own observational signatures in the form of gravitational waves and non-Gaussianities. Importantly, reheating can also affect the observational predictions of the preceding phase of inflation. Reheating remains an active field of research, with significant gaps in our understanding of the process. This thesis is an attempt to improve our understanding of the period following inflation, including reheating, through an exploration and analysis of realistic post-inflationary models with the aid of detailed numerical simulations. The focus of the studies is on aspects of the models with potential observational implications. In Part I of this thesis, we provide an overview of inflation and its end, concentrating on our current understanding of reheating and the challenges we face in trying to constrain reheating observationally. In Part II, we consider the post-inflationary expansion history in a broad class of observationally-favoured single-field models of inflation. Generally, the ambiguity in the expansion history of reheating can cause significant uncertainty in predictions for inflationary observables such as the spectral index, n_s, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r. The work in this part considers the full non-linear evolution of the inflaton during the initial stages of reheating and places bounds on the post-inflationary expansion history when perturbative couplings of the inflaton to other relativistic fields are included. In Part III, we investigate non-perturbative particle production and non-linear dynamics after inflation in models where the inflaton is charged under global/local symmetries. We first explore the effects of the non-linear inflaton dynamics for the generation of matter-antimatter asymmetry in the case where a global U(1) symmetry of the inflaton is weakly broken. We find a parameter range in which the model successfully predicts the observed baryon-to-photon ratio. We then consider the particle production during and after inflation in models with a charged inflaton under Abelian, U(1), and non-Abelian, SU(2) and U(1) x SU(2), gauge symmetries. Finally, we present a novel algorithm for evolving the full set of coupled, non-linear equations describing the U(1) charged inflaton and accompanying gauge fields on a lattice in an expanding universe. The novel feature here is that the gauge constraints are satisfied to machine precision when the gravitational dynamics are self-consistently included at the background level, and there are no restrictions on the order of the time-integrators.
2
Schildt, Erik. "Higgs inflation." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Teoretisk fysik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-355063.
Full textAbstract:
In this project a recent model of inflation in which the Standard Model Higgs field with a nonminimal coupling to gravity takes on the role of the inflaton field is investigated. The tensor to scalar ratio, spectral index and the running of the spectral index is calculated for a tree level analysis and compared with the Planck experiment. The value of the nonminimal coupling constant $\xi$ is estimated by obtaining a relation between the amplitude of scalar perturbations and the Higgs mass, it is found that $\xi \sim 10^4$. The basic aspects of how the results are modified through quantum corrections and what the consequences of the nonminimal coupling are for the effective field theory description is discussed. It is found that a tree level analysis yields predictions which are inside the allowed regions of the cosmological parameters given by the Planck experiment. The large value of the nonminimal coupling leads to unitarity problems for this model of inflation. However quantum effects will have a significant effect and how they modify the results of the tree level analysis is what decides if Higgs inflation is a viable theory.I detta projekt undersöker vi en modell av kosmisk inflation där Higgsfältet med en ickeminimal koppling till tyngdkraften är mekanismen bakom inflation. Vi utför en klassisk analys och beräknar modellens föresägelser för ett antal kosmologiska parametrar som jämförs med Planck experimentet. Vi uppskattar värdet på den ickeminimala kopplingen $\xi$ och finner att $\xi \sim 10^4$. De grundläggande aspekterna bakom kvantanalysen samt vad effekten av den ickeminimala kopplingen har på beskrivningen i termer av en effektiv fältteori diskuteras. Vi finner att en klassisk analys ger förutsägelser som passar väl med Planckexperimentet men att den ickeminimala kopplingen leder till unitaritetsproblem för denna modell av inflation. Kvanteffekter kan dock ha en avsevärd effekt på resultat och en utförlig analys som tar dem till hänsyn krävs för att avgöra om Higgsinflation är en möjlig modell för inflation.
3
Морозова, Ірина Анатоліївна, Ирина Анатольевна Морозова, Iryna Anatoliivna Morozova, and N. Prihodko. "Inflation." Thesis, Видавництво СумДУ, 2010. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/17505.
Full text
4
Rudenko, T., and T. M. Burenko. "Inflation." Thesis, Вид-во СумДУ, 2009. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/16749.
Full text
5
Wieland, Elisabeth. "Essays on inflation uncertainty and inflation expectations." Diss., Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-165216.
Full text
6
Jeke, Leward. "Inflation targeting and inflation indicators: the case for inflation targeting in South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007091.
Full textAbstract:
The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.
7
Ghorbani-Aghilabadi, Payman. "Modelling monetary transmission mechanism, inflation, and inflation uncertainty." Thesis, University of Essex, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.428960.
Full text
8
Henzel, Steffen. "Inflation Dynamics and the Role of Inflation Expectation Formation." Diss., lmu, 2008. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-89335.
Full text
9
Dias, Mafalda. "Ultraviolet complete inflation : looking at inflation from fundamental physics." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2013. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/44139/.
Full textAbstract:
To completely describe the inflationary era in the early universe is an extremely ambitious task. The main reason is that its dynamics are highly sensitive to ultraviolet physics, making the knowledge of inflation dependent on our ignorance of what is happening at these energy scales. This is not necessarily a weakness of inflation as a paradigm; it is ultimately its most interesting characteristic. Accepting this lack of control on the details of inflationary dynamics brings observational cosmology and the search for an ultraviolet complete theory of gravity together. In this thesis, this duality is explored with the aim of making steps towards an efficient way of studying inflation and its predictions and signatures. This challenge is twofold; first, since fundamental theories are far from being able to explicitly determine the early universe physics, the construction of approximate toy models is unavoidable. For this reason, I identify the key issues for the building of a realistic inflation model, in particular the delicate flatness of the inflaton potential, the strong possibility of multifield dynamics and the necessity of a viable reheating, and in the light of these analyze how best to approximate an ultraviolet complete inflation. For this analysis, two different classes of case studies are presented: inflation in the brane picture and in a holography inspired scenario. On the other hand, since any toy model of an ultraviolet complete inflation necessarily presents a high level of complexity, the computation of predictions for observables is not trivial. For this purpose, I develop numerical tools that manage to compute these parameters efficiently and with a high level of accuracy for a broad range of inflation classes with more than one active field. For each case study, I determine the impact of the inclusion of microphysics contributions in the resulting observational signatures and confront them with data.
10
Lin, Chia-Min. "Inflation Models in the Era of Precision Observations : Modified D-term Inflation and Hilltop Inflation Models." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.518205.
Full text
11
Reischl, Theresia Adriana. "Inflation der Heiligen?!" Diss., lmu, 2005. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-53834.
Full text
12
Mazumdar, Anupam. "Dynamics of inflation." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.325580.
Full text
13
Langbein, Rollo Foster. "Thermodynamics and inflation." Thesis, Durham University, 1992. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/5622/.
Full textAbstract:
The standard model of particle physics is introduced, and extensions of it, which may be of cosmological relevance, are considered. The inflationary paradigm is reviewed as an extension of the standard cosmological model. In particular, the natural inflation mechanism resulting from a thermal phase change in a field theory with a spontaneous symmetry breaking potential, is examined. The question of when thermal equilibrium is likely to be a valid assumption in the early universe is considered in some detail. For inflation models, this question is answered by a self-consistency argument involving the total number of interactions per inflaton particle. In order to describe thermal-phase-change inflation models further, the temperature-dependent effective potential resulting from finite-temperature field theory is reviewed. The self-consistency test is developed into a numerical procedure which may be used to discuss the likelihood of thermal state generation in specific inflation models in a quantitative way. Alternatively, the method can be used to provide bounds on the parameters in the inflation potential from the requirement that a thermal state should occur. This procedure is applied to several example potentials and in particular it is easily verified that the "new inflation" model (relying on a phase change) is not viable. The method is quite general and can be applied to any inflation model for which a finite temperature effective potential can be defined. The procedure is generalised to the recently proposed extended inflation. Bounds on the extra free parameters which must be introduced in extended inflation are discussed. It is concluded that despite these extra free parameters the difficulties of generating a thermal state are just as great as they are in conventional inflation.
14
Yousefi, Hana. "Corruption and inflation." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/18006.
Full textAbstract:
Public sector corruption is endemic in many economies and is frequently cited as a cause of poor economic performance. Corruption hinders the completion of beneficial transactions and distorts the outcomes of economic policies. It can also affect the policy choices of governments as they attempt to counteract the consequences of corruption. Excessive inflation may be a negative side effect of corruption if the government compensates for lost revenue by increasing the rate of monetary expansion to exploit seigniorage. There is convincing empirical evidence from cross-section studies that inflation and corruption are positively correlated. It has been suggested that this is a consequence of governments in corrupt economies turning to the use of seigniorage as a method of raising revenue (Al-Marhubi, 2000). This seems a likely route through which the correlation can arise, but the mechanism at work has not received any theoretical attention. In particular, there has been no demonstration that an optimizing government will rationally exploit seigniorage as a response to corruption. The contribution of this study is an analysis of this issue in theoretical models in which the growth rate of money supply is chosen by an optimizing government. Although an empirical analysis is undertaken to explore the relationship between corruption and inflation in chapter one, the main focus of the study is on chapters three, four, and five where theoretical analysis plays the principal role in the research.
15
Al-Wattar, Obey M. "On price inflation." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1986. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/192475/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis seeks to analyse price inflation under oligopoly capitalism. Its central argument is that under oligopoly capitalism, price inflation is a structural phenomenon. For a greater understanding of that phenomenon, the adoption of the inter-industrial approach for its analysis seems essential. According to this approach, price inflation can be initiated in a single industry or in an industry group. The initiating factor may be an increase in the mark-up, an increase in the money wage rate or an increase in the foreign currency price of an imported input. It can also be initiated by devaluation. The input-output matrix, the core of the economic system, is the key to the transmission of inflationary impulses (in the form of higher unit cost) from one industry to another. Real wage resistance, rigid mark-up resistance, and rigid foreign resistance do no more than perpetuate or worsen the inflationary experience. The inflationary process itself has a dual role to play. It acts as a mechanism for shifting income distribution in favour of one section of the society against another and as a mechanism for changing the price structure. The author argues that the abandonment of the macroeconomic approach to the analysis of price inflation and its replacement by the inter-industrial approach is the first step for serious analysis of that structural phenomenon.
16
Дядечко, Алла Миколаївна, Алла Николаевна Дядечко, Alla Mykolaivna Diadechko, and A. Kuzmenko. "What is inflation?" Thesis, Вид-во СумДУ, 2009. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/16891.
Full text
17
Drudiková, Dita. "Inflation Growth Relation." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-73333.
Full text
18
Fertig, Angelika. "Alternatives to Inflation." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17566.
Full textAbstract:
In dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir kosmologische Modelle des frühen Universums, insbesondere alternative Modelle zur Inflationstheorie. Im ersten Teil leiten wir mithilfe des kovarianten Formalismus die Bewegunsgleichungen für zwei Skalarfelder mit nicht-kanonischem Feldraum bis zur dritten Ordnung in der Störtheorie her. Diese Gleichungen können dazu verwendet werden, Vorhersagen für die Bi- und Trispektren von Multi-Feldmodellen zu treffen, z.B. nicht-minimale ekpyrotische Modelle. In diesen Modellen werden zuerst aufgrund der nicht-minimalen kinetischen Kopplung zwischen den beiden Skalarfeldern nahezu skaleninvariante Entropiefluktuationen erzeugt, die dann anschließend in adiabatische Fluktuationen umgewandelt werden. Das Bi- sowie das Trispektrum der Entropiefluktuationen ist genau null während der ekpyrotischen Phase. Damit die Amplitude der adiabatischen Fluktuationen und das Bispektrum kompatibel mit derzeitigen Messungen sind, muss der Umwandlungsprozess effizient sein, was zu einem signifikanten, negativen Trispektrum-Parameter führt. Als zweite Alternative zur Inflation konstruieren wir ein neues kosmologisches Modell, das im Rahmen der Skalar-Tensor-Gravitationstheorien Elemente der Inflation mit Elementen des ekpyrotischen Modells verbindet. Während einer Phase der Konflation expandiert das Universum beschleunigt, jedoch mit negativer potentieller Energie. Skalare und tensorielle Fluktuationen werden nicht verstärkt – die ewige Inflation und die damit einhergehenden Unendlichkeiten werden vermieden. Wir zeigen außerdem, wie Dichtefluktuationen in Übereinstimmung mit aktuellen Beobachtungen erzeugt werden können, indem wir mithilfe eines zweiten Skalarfeldes den entropischen Mechanismus einsetzen. Beide Modelle unterscheiden sich von “slow-roll” Inflationstheorien basierend auf einem Skalarfeld darin, dass keine primordialen Gravitationswellen produziert werden und sie folglich mit den aktuellen Daten des PLANCK-Satelliten übereinstimmen.In this thesis we explore cosmological models of the early universe, in particular alternatives to the theory of inflation. In the first part of this thesis, we derive the evolution equations for two scalar fields with non-canonical field space metric up to third order in perturbation theory, employing the covariant formalism. These equations can be used to derive predictions for local bi- and trispectra of multi-field cosmological models, e.g. in non-minimal ekpyrotic models. In these models, nearly scale-invariant entropy perturbations are generated first due to a non-minimal kinetic coupling between two scalar fields, and subsequently converted into curvature perturbations. Remarkably, the entropy perturbations have vanishing bi- and trispectra during the ekpyrotic phase. However, in order to obtain a large enough amplitude and small enough bispectrum of the curvature perturbations, as seen in current measurements, the conversion process must be very efficient, leading to a significant, negative trispectrum parameter. As a second alternative to inflation, we construct a new kind of cosmological model that conflates inflation and ekpyrosis in the framework of scalar-tensor theories of gravity. During a phase of conflation, the universe undergoes accelerated expansion, but with negative potential energy. A distinguishing feature of the model is that it does not amplify adiabatic scalar and tensor fluctuations, and in particular does not lead to eternal inflation and the associated infinities. We also show how density fluctuations in accordance with current observations may be generated by adding a second scalar field to the model and making use of the entropic mechanism. The distinguishing observational feature of both models compared to single-field slow-roll inflation is an absence of primordial gravitational waves, in agreement with current data from the PLANCK satellite.
19
Calmvik, Jonas. "Swedish Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - a market based measure of inflation expectations?" Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-8543.
Full textAbstract:
The Fisher Equation suggests that the spread between nominal and real interest rates is equal to the inflation expectations. In Sweden, where both nominal and inflation linked bonds exist the fisher equation implies that the yield spread could provide investors and policymakers with important information about markets inflation expectations. The aim of this thesis is therefore to estimate whether the yield spread between Swedish nominal and real interest rates - widely referred to as the Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - is a market based measure of inflation expectations. A sample based on historical bond prices between year 2000 and 2007 is used and adjusted for 3 distortions: i) The mismatch in cash flow structure arising from different bond characteristics. ii) The inflation indexation and bond finance implications (carry). iii) The seasonality in Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the absence of “true” inflation expectations, the benchmark used for the evaluation and comparison of the unadjusted and adjusted BEI series is the survey based, Prospera Money Market Players inflationary expectations, i.e. professional forecasters. The evaluation uses two statistical measures to estimate the errors, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to estimate the size of the forecast error and the Mean Error (ME) to measure the bias or the tendency for the forecast error to point in a particular direction. The general conclusion of the study is that both the unadjusted and the adjusted BEI series have improved significantly throughout the sample period as predictors of inflation expectations.
Further, in the first half of the sample, the MEs show that the BEI tends to underestimate inflation expectations, while in the second part of the sample the direction of the errors are less univocal. However, the carry adjusted and in some extent the carry and seasonality adjusted BEI seem to improve the BEI somewhat, although the conclusions are not very convincing. When using BEI to measure inflation expectations the conclusions should also be balanced against the possible bias associated with survey based expectations.
20
Van, Zyl Jaco. "Inflation as a determinant of South African inflation-linked bond returns." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/97445.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: “Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” – Ronald Reagan It is widely publicised that inflation-linked instruments provide a hedge against rising inflation. This has led investors to assume that high inflation creates an opportunity to beat the market when investing in this asset class. This assumption is based on the belief that higher inflation creates higher returns. It is due to this belief that a research question was formulated to determine if inflation is in fact a determinant of inflation-linked bond returns. This research study investigated, as a first objective, the relationship between the South African prime lending interest rate and the South African consumer price index inflation between 2000 and 2013. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to test for unit roots between interest and inflation. This test was extended to six other emerging countries that, together with South Africa, are issuers of government inflation-linked bonds. The researcher’s intention was to compare the relationship between interest rates and inflation in South Africa with that of the six other countries. Surprisingly, the results indicated that South African inflation and interest are non-stationary. After testing for cointegration, it was concluded that there is no relationship between the prime lending interest rate and inflation in the data set and most of the variation can be explained by means of the autocorrelation of residuals in previous periods more than the prime lending rate. As a second objective, the same methodology was applied to determine whether there is any relationship between the South African consumer price index inflation and the South African government inflation-linked bond returns. The results indicated that the series is not cointegrated which means that no relationship exists between inflation and inflation-linked bond returns. The third objective looked at alternative factors that could explain what the real determinants of inflation-linked bond returns are. It was concluded that the trend in inflation is really the source of inflation-linked bond performance, with the effects of the lead and lag periods causing capital losses and profits.
21
Lerner, Rose Natalie. "S-inflation : a testable, minimal model of inflation and dark matter." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2010. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/61557/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis describes work on inflationary cosmology, specifically in relation to observations. After reviewing the theory of inflation and dark matter, we introduce a model, 'S-infiation', in which a gauge singlet scalar S (with quartic self-coupling As) is both thermal relic dark matter and the inflaton. This is made possible by its non-minimal coupling es to gravity, where *. '" 4.6 X 104 at tree level. Reheating occurs primarily through a stochastic resonance to Higgs bosons, which then annihilate to relativistic particles. Primary importance is given to the predictions the model makes for the Higgs mass (mh), spectral index (n) and S mass (ms). Under reasonable assumptions, 130 GeV < tiu, < 170 GeV, 50 GeV < ms < 1 TeV and n > 0.966. All - of these are in principle within reach of the LHC, Planck and direct detection dark matter experiments, such as XENONlOO. We then show that the renormalization group improved effective potential is a superior method to the standard Coleman Weinberg potential for calculating inflation observables. Then, we compare the predictions of S-inflation to those of pure Higgs inflation and Higgs inflation with an additional scalar. For mh 2: 130 GeV, the models are in general distinguishable through the spectral index n, with n > ne! for S-inflation models and n < ne! for Higgs inflation. For N e-foldings of inflation, ne! ~ 1 - t; - 2~2 ~ 0.966. We next explain the origin of the apparent violation of unitarity at energy scales greater than A '" !:[;- (Mp is the reduced Planck mass). As we demonstrate, the calculation of the unitarity bound is done perturbatively, while the theory is non-perturbative at the energy of unitarity violation. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude whether or not unitarity is violated in the model. The model may instead be strongly coupled, meaning that the calculation of scattering amplitudes at E '" A becomes non-perturbative, while the analysis of inflation is unchanged. If unitarity is shown to be violated in the original model, a new, unitarity conserving version of the model can be considered. This has a simple form in the Einstein frame, and predicts a larger spectral index (n:::::: 0.975) than the original model.
22
Wu, Yinkai. "Non-normality, uncertainty and inflation forecasting : an analysis of China's inflation." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37175.
Full textAbstract:
Economic forecasting is important because it can affect the decision making processes of individuals, firms and governments so as to affect their behaviours. In this thesis, I discuss different methodologies for forecasting and forecast evaluation. I also discuss the role of assumption of normality and the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting. The first chapter is the introduction of the thesis. In second chapter, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the performances of forecast combination and the forecast encompassing test under the forecast errors non-normality. In third chapter, I examines the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and macroeconomic uncertainty for China by using different measures of uncertainties. I also investigate the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and inflation itself. In fourth chapter, I compute the probabilities of deflation for China by applying density forecast based on the theories and methodologies from previous two chapters. Particularly, I construct density forecasts for different forecast horizons by a joint distribution using Student-t copula. The fifth chapter is conclusion.
23
Morar, Derwina. "Inflation threshold and nonlinearity: implications for inflation targeting in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002718.
Full textAbstract:
Following many other central banks around the world, the South African Reserve Bank has adopted inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework. The aim of this is to achieve low levels of inflation in order to attain price stability thereby promoting growth. In South Africa, the chosen band to target is 3%–6%. This has been criticised by many trade unions who are calling for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Despite targeting 3%–6%, it is not known whether this is the optimal inflation range for South Africa. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the inflation threshold level for South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1983 to 2010. The first section determines whether or not there is a long-run relationship between inflation and growth using the Johansen cointegration method. Exogeneity tests determine the causality between these variables. Vector error correction models are estimated if cointegration is found. The second part determines the threshold level of inflation using the method of conditional least squares. The inflation level that maximises the R-squared value and minimises the residual sum of squares gives an indication of the threshold level. The third part of the study determines whether or not inflation volatility has a significant impact on growth. The first part established that there is long-run comovement between inflation and growth.The causality is bidirectional with both variables being endogenous.Findings regarding the threshold level show that the current inflation targeting band of 3%–6% may be extended up to 9.5%. In addition, the range of inflation from 5.5% to 6.5% promotes economic growth in South Africa. Finally, the evidence suggests that inflation volatility does not have a significant impact on economic growth and the focus of policy should be directed towards the level of inflation as has been the case.
24
Yadav, Anirudh. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Persistence in Australia: A New Keynesian Perspective." Thesis, School of Economics, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7944.
Full textAbstract:
The true nature of inflation dynamics is an ongoing matter of debate and investigation in modern macroeconomics. That such attention is devoted to the dynamics of inflation is due to its importance, not only for understanding the nature of business cycles, but also for determining the appropriate path for monetary policy. Modern models of inflation are typically derived from the seminal contributions of Calvo (1983) and Taylor (1980) which imply a purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) where inflation depends on its future expectation and the level of real marginal costs. Despite its theoretical elegance, the purely forward-looking incarnation of the NKPC has been shown to perform poorly against the data. The empirical shortcomings of the NKPC are generally attributed to its inability to replicate the innate persistence which is present in inflation (see, for example: Fuhrer and Moore, 1995). In order to enhance the degree of persistence within the model several authors have proposed somewhat ad-hoc rationales for the inclusion of lagged inflation terms in the NKPC (see, for example: Gali and Gertler, 1999 and Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans, 2005). While these `hybrid Phillips curves' do indeed improve the fit of the model, their questionable microfoundations are an obvious source of criticism. This thesis attempts to ascertain the extent to which inflation dynamics in Australia can be explained by the NKPC without having to rely on arbitrary backward-looking terms that have limited structural meaning. In particular, this analysis considers whether an adapted version of Cogley and Sbordone's (2008) extended model of timevarying trend inflation is suffcient to explain inflation persistence in Australia without the need for a backward-looking term in the NKPC.
25
Halter, Sebastian [Verfasser], and Johanna [Akademischer Betreuer] Erdmenger. "Inflation from field theory and string theory perspectives : matter inflation and slow-walking inflation / Sebastian Halter. Betreuer: Johanna Erdmenger." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1034813234/34.
Full text
26
Wieland, Elisabeth [Verfasser], and Kai [Akademischer Betreuer] Carstensen. "Essays on inflation uncertainty and inflation expectations / Elisabeth Wieland. Betreuer: Kai Carstensen." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1047062429/34.
Full text
27
Ashley, Malcolm Orrin. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and the variance of money growth Are they related? /." Thesis, Available online, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2004:, 2003. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-04052004-180000/unrestricted/ashley%5Fmalcolm%5Fo%5F200312%5Fms.pdf.
Full text
28
Fakieh, Reham Ahmed. "Inflation and exchange rate policies in Saudi Arabia : an inflation targeting perspective." Thesis, Manchester Metropolitan University, 2018. http://e-space.mmu.ac.uk/620691/.
Full textAbstract:
This research evaluates the effectiveness of the current fixed exchange rate regime between the USA dollar and the Saudi Arabian Riyal in place since 1987, from the perspective of the Saudi Arabian economy. From the USA’s point of view, the regime is beneficial as it guarantees a stable value of oil imports from Saudi Arabia at all times. However, this is not necessarily the case for Saudi Arabia, in particular when the USA authorities engage in expansionary monetary policies in order to stimulate the USA economy and Saudi Arabia is subject to inflationary pressures. That is not to say that the current fixed exchange rate regime is ineffective for the Saudi Arabian economy at all times. When both the USA and the Saudi economies are experiencing sustainable growth, the regime works for both countries. In other words, business cycle synchronicity is a prerequisite for the regime to be conducive to maintaining low inflation in Saudi Arabia via anchoring inflationary expectations, in the same way business cycle synchronicity is assisting Eurozone’s viability. In the absence of such synchronicity, the regime produces rigid monetary policies for Saudi Arabia, as it effectively renders them ineffective, and the Saudi authorities have to resort to contractionary fiscal policies as the only alternative to reducing deficits. The thesis is therefore evaluating alternative exchange rate regimes that could potentially be adopted by Saudi Arabia, and tests their effectiveness. Despite therefore Saudi Arabia resuming its stable macroeconomic framework when its economy is recovering, which is, quite often attributed to its fixed exchange rate regime, alternative regimes could provide Pareto improvements in particular when the Saudi economy is in recession. By estimating ARDL and VECM models, the thesis provides strong evidence in favour of an exchange rate regime based on inflation targeting. The application of these models provides strong evidence that inflation targeting, if adopted, would successfully reduce inflation and at the same time stabilise the Riyal’s exchange rate parities. This would include periods of sustained oil price volatility. In addition, as Saudi Arabia is the core GCC member country the implications of creating a common currency area are tested by using a G-PPP model. Interestingly, the results reveal that GCC countries meet the Optimum Currency Area criteria and therefore a single currency with Saudi Arabia as its base currency/country will be viable. Thus, while fully recognising the political impediments, the main conclusion from a purely economic perspective is that Saudi Arabia should review its current exchange rate arrangements; employ inflation targeting; and lead efforts to create a currency union with the rest of the GCC member countries.
29
Essebei, Omar. "Quantum description of inflation." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/19309/.
Full textAbstract:
In this thesis I want to analyze what happens when an inflationary space-time is studied as a collection of quanta. Classically the inflationary universe can be described by the equation of moto for the metric tensor field and for the inflaton field. My purpose is to deal the two fields as systems of particles, called respectively gravitons and inflatons. Thus, the fundamental quantum quantities that are taken into account to describe these systems, are the particle occupation numbers and the constant couplings between them. Therefore, in addition to the equations of moto for the classical quantities, had to be deduced the temporal evolution for the number of quanta of the two systems. What I will show is that, the equation for the classical and quantum models will give the same interpretation for the space-time, untill the microscopic interactions between quanta become important. The quantum correction that rises, leads to a new interpretation of the inflationary universe. Briefly, in the inflaton model exists a limit in wich can be recovered the well know de Sitter metric, instead this is not more true when the quantum interactions between quanta of the classical fields are are taken into account.\\
Before analyzing the quantum model of inflation, I will show in the second chapter, the corpuscolar interpretation of the black hole. Indeed, it constitutes an instructive model in wich is present only the gravitational field, and the dynamics of the quanta associated, is very similar to that of the inflationary model. The reason can be searched in the statistichal features of the respectively systems. In both models, I will prove that they are Bose-Einstein condensates, constitued by many very weakly interagent quanta, at critical phase point.\\
To conclude, in the last chapter I will show an alternative theory of gravity that inside itself, encodes the inflationary universe, and I will try to quantizy it.
30
Piani, Matteo. "Reheating after string inflation." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/19493/.
Full textAbstract:
Nella teoria delle stringhe sono presenti numerosi campi scalari denominati moduli, i quali emergono dal limite di bassa energia della teoria. L’obbiettivo di questo lavoro di tesi è lo studio del reheating in un modello dove l’inflatone è un modulo di Kahler.
Durante l’inflazione tutti i moduli il cui potenziale dipende dall’inflatone non si
trovano nel loro minimo globale, ma in quello che viene chiamato minimo inflazionario.
Al termine dell’inflazione l’inflatone decade e avviene un primo reheating, dopo cui l’universo entra in un’ epoca dominata dalla radiazione. Se è presente un modulo
più leggero dell’inflatone questo inizia ad oscillare coerentemente attorno al proprio
minimo globale, comportandosi come materia non relativistica. Poiché la densità di energia della materia decresce molto più lentamente di quella della radiazione, ad un certo momento il modulo più leggero dominerà la densità di energia dell’universo.
Quando questo decade avviene il secondo e ultimo reheating. In questo tipo di
modelli è inevitabile la produzione di assioni ultraleggeri, particelle scalari accoppiate
solo gravitazionalmente che costituiscono una componente radiativa della densità di
energia, ma non interagiscono con la materia ordinaria, costituendo quindi ciò che
viene definita “radiazione oscura”. La quantità di radiazione oscura prodotta può
essere espressa in termini di numero efficace di neutrini. Questa quantità può essere
calcolata sia al momento della nucleosintesi primordiale, sia al momento della CMB.
Con questo elaborato si vuole andare a verificare sotto quali condizioni è possibile evitare che sia prodotta troppa radiazione oscura, in un modello dove il MSSM è realizzato su uno stack di D7-brane.
31
Sakakihara, Yuki. "Inflation in Bimetric Gravity." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/215306.
Full text
32
Hertog, Thomas. "The origin of inflation." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2002. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/265452.
Full textAbstract:
The inflationary universe scenario provides an appealing explanation for the riddles of why the observed universe is so flat and isotropic, and it neatly provides a causal mechanism for generating the primordial inhomogeneities which seed the large-scale structure we observe today. However, the 01igin of inflation is still unclear, mainly since we have no compelling evidence for a pe1iod of inflation from M-theory. Moreover, whether inflation actually occurs within a given theory is known to depend strongly on the initial conditions. These conceptual problems of inflation are the driving force behind the research presented in this thesis. We study inflation driven by higher de1ivative quantum effects and show how theories of initial conditions may provide observational discriminants between different inflationary scenarios. First we consider scalar field inflation and develop the techniques to calculate c01Telators of physical observables on a spacelike surface directly from the Euclidean no boundary path integral. We perturbatively evaluate the path integral for metric fluctuations around both regular and singular instanton saddle points. The real-space Euclidean two-point correlator is analytically continued into the Lorentzian universe, where it describes the quantum mechanical vacuum fluctuations of the graviton field in the state described by no boundary initial conditions. Unlike the usual approach to inflationary perturbations, the Euclidean path integral unambiguously specifies the graviton propagators with no additional assumptions. From our results for the two-point c01Telation functions we deduce predictions for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies and compare this with what is observed today. It is shown that the long wavelength gravity waves would allow us to probe the initial state, if there were sufficient curvature left in the present-day universe. The lack of compelling theoretical evidence casts doubt on the claim that the potential energy of a scalar field could be the 01igin of an inflationary pe1iod in the early universe. It is therefore of the utmost importance to study realisations of inflation which do not require fundamental scalar fields that emerge more naturally from fundamental physics. In the second part of this thesis we revive an old idea of Starobinsky in which inflation is driven by the trace anomaly of a large number of conformally coupled matter fields. We argue that in contrast to scalar field inflation, trace anomaly driven inflation has a sound motivation in particle physics. We include in our action higher derivative counterterms, which arise naturally in the renormalisation of the conformal field theory (CFf). We discuss in detail how correlators of observables should be obtained from the path integral in a higher derivative theory. It is emphasised that the final boundary condition on the fields in the path integral is crucial to extract correct predictions for observations. Using the AdS/CFf correspondence, we present the first calculation of scalar and tensor metric propagators for trace anomaly inflation, taking full account of the back-reaction of matter fields. It is found that the primordial inhomogeneities are naturally suppressed, provided there are suffiently many matter fields, and that the higher derivative terms can play an important role in further reducing the fluctuations to the level we observe. The non-local part of the matter effective action has the effect of strongly suppressing fluctuations on small scales. This suggests that any small-scale modifications to four dimensional Einstein gravity would be unobservable in the CMB, since matter fields would dominate the graviton propagator at the scales at which such modifications might be expected to become important. To illustrate this point we consider a Randall-Sundrum (RS) brane world analogue of trace anomaly driven inflation, in which our universe is regarded as a domain wall in five dimensional anti-de Sitter (AdS) space with a large N conformal field theory living on the wall. It is shown that the effects of the matter fields dominate the RS corrections, rendering them unobservable. This result is probably not restricted to trace anomaly driven inflation, since it is a consequence of the presence of a large number of matter fields. We return to the problem of initial conditions for inflation at the end of the thesis. We provide evidence that the no boundary path integral predicts the Lorentzian inflationary phase in trace anomaly driven inflation to occur by semiclassical tunnelling via a four sphere instanton.
33
Neiss, Katharine Stefanie. "Essays on discretionary inflation." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp02/NQ27212.pdf.
Full text
34
Hudson, David. "Inflation, uncertainty and investment /." Title page, contents and introduction only, 1993. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09EC/09ech885.pdf.
Full text
35
VanLelyveld, Iman Paul Pieter. "Inflation, institutions, and preferences /." Amsterdam : Thela thesis, 2000. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=009219782&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Full text
36
Varaden, Tirumugum. "Market-consistent Inflation Modelling." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.498169.
Full text
37
Pflueger, Carolin. "Inflation and Asset Prices." Thesis, Harvard University, 2012. http://dissertations.umi.com/gsas.harvard:10190.
Full textAbstract:
Do corporate bond spreads reflect fear of debt deflation? Most corporate bonds have fixed nominal face values, so unexpectedly low inflation raises firms' real debt burdens and increases default risk. The first chapter develops a real business cycle model with time-varying inflation risk and optimal, but infrequent, capital structure choice. In this model, more volatile or more procyclical inflation lead to quantitatively important credit spread increases. This is true even with inflation volatility as moderate as that in developed economies since 1970. Intuitively, this result obtains because inflation persistence generates large uncertainty about the price level at long maturities and because firms cannot adjust their capital structure immediately. We find strong empirical support for our model predictions in a panel of six developed economies. Both inflation volatility and the inflation-stock return correlation have varied substantially over time and across countries. They jointly explain as much variation in credit spreads as do equity volatility and the dividend-price ratio. Credit spreads rise by 15 basis points if either inflation volatility or the inflation-stock return correlation increases by one standard deviation. Firms counteract higher debt financing costs by adjusting their capital structure in times of higher inflation uncertainty. The second chapter empirically decomposes excess return predictability in inflation-indexed and nominal government bonds into liquidity, market segmentation, real interest rate risk and inflation risk. This chapter finds evidence for time-varying liquidity premia in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and for time-varying liquidity premia in TIPS and for time-varying inflation risk premia in nominal bonds. The third chapter develops a pre-test for weak instruments in linear instrumental variable regression that is robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Our test statistic is a scaled version of the regular first-stage F statistic. The critical values depend on the long-run variance-covariance matrix of the first stage. We apply our pre-test to the instrumental variable estimation of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution and find that instruments previously considered not to be weak do not exceed our threshold.
38
Hall, Lisa Marguerite Hope. "Dissipative models of inflation." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.412653.
Full text
39
GUILLEN, DIOGO ABRY. "ESSAYS ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2008. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12234@1.
Full textAbstract:
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIORA dissertação está dividida em quatro artigos que abordam temas em política monetária. Inicialmente, avalia-se como se dá a formação das expectativas de inflação no Brasil. Os resultados sugerem que os dados não obedecem aos preceitos da teoria de expectativas racionais ou adaptativas. Utilizamos dois métodos para definir a freqüência de reajuste informacional no Brasil e há indícios de maior aderência à teoria de rigidez informacional. O segundo artigo investiga o processo de transmissão de expectativas dentro do mercado financeiro. Propomos um modelo em que os agentes do mercado financeiro, ao construírem suas expectativas, observam os dados mais recentes e as expectativas já divulgadas dos agentes do mercado que costumam apresentar previsões mais acuradas, segundo ranking do Banco Central. O modelo é avaliado empiricamente e mostramos que o peso dado às expectativas dos melhores previsores cresce com a aproximação da divulgação do dado. No terceiro artigo, estudamos os impactos da política monetária e da taxa de câmbio sobre a inflação no Brasil. Os resultados indicam que leva entre seis e doze meses até que a estrutura de preços volte a ser aquela que prevalecia antes do choque. O quarto artigo investiga a credibilidade do Banco Central do Brasil, através de uma base de dados com expectativas desagregadas. A hipótese é de que a heterogeneidade das expectativas de longo prazo advenha de crenças distintas com relação à aversão do Banco Central à inflação. Com base neste argumento, construímos um índice utilizando Cadeias de Markov para o caso brasileiro.
This dissertation is divided in four papers about monetary policy. Initially, we evaluate how inflation expectations are formed in BrazilOur results suggest that data do not follow what rational or adaptive expectations would predict. Using two different methods to measure the informational readjustment frequency in Brazil, we find evidence that inflation expectations seem to behave more closely to what sticky information theory would predict. The second paper investigates the inflation expectations transmission inside the Brazilian financial market. We propose a model in which financial market agents, when they build their own forecasts, not only observe to recent data, but also use lagged expectations from the best forecasters. Our model is evaluated empirically and we can show that the weight given to the best forecasters grows as we get closer to the release of inflation data. In the third paper, we study monetary policy and exchange rate impacts on inflation in Brazil. Our results indicate that it takes from six to twelve months until price structure returns to the one that existed before the shock. The fourth paper investigates central bank´s credibility using individual financial market agents´ expectations. Our hypothesis is that expectations´ heterogeneity for long term horizon comes from different beliefs about central bank´s aversion to inflation. Using this argument, we build a credibility index using Markov Chains for Brazil.
40
Frazer, Jonathan. "Predictions in multifield inflation." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2013. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/46616/.
Full textAbstract:
Models of inflation with more than one active field are an important class where it is not fully understood how to compute predictions. This problem can be understood in terms of two characteristics of these models: the sensitivity to initial conditions and the superhorizon evolution of the primordial density perturbation ζ. This thesis seeks to make significant progress in understanding how to overcome these two issues. To track the superhorizon evolution of ζ in general requires numerical techniques. By extending the transport method first proposed by Mulryne, Seery and Wesley, here, a computationally efficient and highly versatile method for computing the statistics of ζ is developed. The increased efficiency and versatility allows models that were previously unaccessible to be studied. Utilising this new capability two models are explored. A new toy model of inflation in the Landscape and a 6-field D-brane model of inflation first proposed by Agarwal, Bean, McAllister, and Xu. The nature of these models allows for a statistical analysis of inflationary realisations to be performed. We conclude that the fundamental ability to constrain models of this kind is determined by the scale of features in the potential. We also show the D-brane model is under considerable pressure from current observations of the spectral index and may be ruled out by future observations. Finally, I show that there exists a class of models for which the probability distribution of observables may be computed analytically. I show the peak of the density function is largely dominated by the geometry of the potential and comparatively insensitive to the distribution of initial conditions. I argue that this characteristic should be expected in a broader range of models and for such models, it is possible to make robust predictions.
41
Faria, José Carlos de. "Brazil--trade and inflation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/10858.
Full text
42
Sfakianakis, Evangelos I. "Hybrid and multifield inflation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/91030.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Physics, 2014.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references.
In this thesis I study the generation of density perturbations in two classes of inflationary models: hybrid inflation and multifield inflation with non-minimal coupling to gravity. In the case of hybrid inflation, we developed a new method of treating these perturbations that does not rely on a classical trajectory for the fields. A characteristic of the spectrum is the appearance of a spike at small length scales, which could conceivably seed the formation of black holes that can evolve to become the supermassive black holes found at the centers of galaxies. Apart from numerically calculating the resulting spectrum, we derived an expansion in the number of waterfall fields, which makes the calculation easier and more intuitive. In the case of multifield inflation, we studied models where the scalar fields are coupled non-minimally to gravity. We developed a covariant formalism and examined the prediction for non-Gaussianities in these models, arguing that they are absent except in the case of fine-tuned initial conditions. We have also applied our formalism to Higgs inflation and found that multifield effects are too small to be observable. We compared these models to the early data of the Planck satellite mission, finding excellent agreement for the spectral index and tensor to scalar ratio and promising agreement for the existence of iso-curvature modes.
by Evangelos I. Sfakianakis.
Ph. D.
43
Prabhu, Anirudh S. B. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Preheating in multifield inflation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105647.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis: S.B., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Physics, 2016.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 81-83).
The theory of cosmic inflation was proposed to address problems with Standard Big Bang cosmology. The theory suggests the existence of an epoch during which the universe underwent an exponential expansion, followed by an epoch of slower expansion. Realistic models of high-energy physics require multiple scalar fields. Renormalization of these fields in curved space-time requires these fields to be nonminimally coupled to the space-time Ricci scalar. These couplings induce a nontrivial field-space manifold when we move from the Jordan frame to the Einstein frame. In the Einstein frame, the potential becomes asymptotically flat, leading to ridges and valleys in field-space. The existence of these ridges and valleys results in a strong single-field attractor behavior of the fields. We study preheating in multifield models of inflation with nonminimal couplings. In this phase, we find an efficient transfer of energy from the oscillating background fields to the coupled fluctuations. We identify features of preheating that are not present in the minimally coupled case. In particular, we observe how the Fourier structure of the background field oscillations changes as the value of the dimensionless non-minimal coupling, [zeta]1 changes. We also observe how the resonance structure of perturbations changes as we tune [zeta]1.
by Anirudh Prabhu.
S.B.
44
List, Matthew Patrick. "Inflation and the Elderly." Thesis, Boston College, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/400.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis advisor: Alicia MunnellSince 1975, Social Security retirement benefits have been tied to the Consumer Price Index to adjust for inflation. The CPI measures price changes for a market basket of goods and services designed to replicate the average consumer's expenditures. The elderly, however, consume a market basket different from that of the typical person. In particular, the elderly tend to purchase more medical services than other consumers. Because the price of medical care increases more rapidly than other prices, the inflation rate experienced by the elderly is greater than the inflation rate for the general population, even when controlling for the upward quality bias in the medical care component of pricing data. However, given that this difference in inflation rates is less than the size of the total measurement error in the CPI, recipients of Social Security retirement benefits are actually overcompensated for increases in inflation. Over the course of a beneficiary's retirement, this overcompensation results in a total benefit that is 5.4 – 6.6% greater than what the total benefit would have been under an ideal inflation indexing scheme
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2005
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics Honors Program
45
Banerjee, Shesadri. "Essays on inflation volatility." Thesis, Durham University, 2013. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/7344/.
Full textAbstract:
Inflation volatility is one of the key constituents of inflation dynamics and has not received much attention in the literature. The study of inflation volatility is important because it has adverse economic consequences. This thesis aims to study the determinants of inflation volatility for advanced and developing countries. At the outset, I explore the empirical regularities of inflation volatility based on monthly and quarterly CPI inflation data (1968 to 2011) using time and frequency domain analysis. I establish a stylised fact that inflation is significantly more volatile in developing countries than advanced countries. This raises a research question why it is so. Using a New Keynesian paradigm, an answer to this research question is sought from two angles. First, a policy rule for interest rate (known as Taylor rule) is estimated over a balanced panel of advanced and developing countries to examine the difference in policy activism between these two groups of countries. This follows from the New Keynesian argument that an active monetary policy is a necessary condition for stable dynamics of inflation. Using the Generalized Method of Moments and the Arellano and Bover (1995) method of dynamic panel estimation, I find that monetary policy is active in advanced countries but passive in developing economies. This striking difference in the policy regimes between these two groups can be one of the reasons for the difference in inflation volatility. Second, motivated by the asymmetry in consumption basket of CPI between advanced and developing economies, a two-sector New Keynesian model with food and non-food is developed. The model features: i) composite consumption and labour index, ii) differential Calvo-type price adjustment of firms across sectors, and iii) Taylor type monetary policy rule. Characterising the distinct structures of advanced and developing economies by two different parameterizations, the model calibration shows that demand disturbance generated by the preference shock is one of the fundamental forces for inflation volatility. In addition, my simulation analysis demonstrates that other structural parameters such as the frequency of price adjustment, distribution of labour and the elasticity of labour substitution, and the policy parameter of inflation in the Taylor rule are also critical factors explaining the greater volatility of inflation in developing economies.
46
Marchenko, T. "Project Analysis and Inflation." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2016. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/49295.
Full textAbstract:
The implementation of effective investment projects that create added value
and ensure the GDP growth is essential for the modernization of the economy and
its transition to high-tech development path. The need for economic agents in the
implementation of investment projects appears when there is a need for the
development of business and the economy as a whole, and this need is generated in
the development strategy of the respective economic entity (or region, industry, the
country as a whole). The main strategic goal of business is to increase the market
value of the invested capital. Therefore, from the point of view of shareholders an
investment project is effective, when it provides the increase of the market value of
shareholders' or long-term creditors` equity.
47
Farago, Peter A. "ΛCDM Cosmology + Chaotic Inflation." VCU Scholars Compass, 2015. http://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/4048.
Full textAbstract:
ΛCDM cosmology is described in terms of general relativity and the Robertson-Walker metric. The evolution of the observable universe, currently dominated by dark energy (Λ) and cold dark matter (CDM), is presented in terms of its thermal history. CDM is extended to include an inflation epoch that accelerates the early expansion rate to near exponential levels. It is shown that inflation solves several problems in CDM and produces perturbations in the metric that lead to the observed anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background and the formation of large scale cosmological structures. Various theories of inflation are explored. Predictions of inflation theories are compared to observations published by the Planck Collaboration. The paper concludes with an examination of “𝜶-attractor” theories of inflation based on a modified form of gravity.
48
Kulhányová, Petra. "Introduction of Euro Inflation." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-16387.
Full text
49
Gouvea, Solange. "Essays in inflation persistence /." Diss., Digital Dissertations Database. Restricted to UC campuses, 2007. http://uclibs.org/PID/11984.
Full text
50
Wo-Lung, Lee 1962. "Inflation with thermal dissipation." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/282821.
Full textAbstract:
We study thermally induced density perturbations during inflation. This scenario is characterized by two thermodynamic conditions: (i) the primordial perturbations originate in the epoch when the inflationary universe contains a thermalized heat bath; (ii) the perturbations of the inflationary scalar field are given by the fluctuation-dissipation relation. We show that (1) the power spectrum of the primordial density perturbations follows a tilted power law behavior; (2) the relation between the amplitude and the power index of the spectrum exhibits a "thermodynamic" feature--it depends mainly on the thermodynamic variable M, the inflation energy scale; (3) both the adiabatic mode and the isocurvature mode of density perturbations appear during the inflation epoch, and the resultant power spectrum on super-horizon scales is substantially suppressed. These results are found to be very consistent with observations of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background if the energy scale of the inflation is about 10¹⁵-10¹⁶ GeV.