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1
Evans, Yeboah. "The Effect of External Debt, Unemployment Rate, and Inflation on Economic Growth in Ghana." Journal of Empirical Studies 9, no. 2 (October 21, 2022): 24–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/66.v9i2.3178.
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Inflation and unemployment rates are part of the macroeconomic factors affecting growth within Ghana's economy over the years. The continued rise in the country's gross domestic product and a high dependency on external debt for development projects have sparked a lot of controversies. This study investigates whether external debt, inflation, and unemployment rate stimulate economic development, intending to determine the causal relationship between the variables to serve as an important factor for policymakers. The econometrics methods include the stationarity test, Johansen cointegration test, and regression (ordinary least squares). The data used was from the World Bank from 1991-2021. The stationarity test showed that external debt, GDP, and unemployment were non-stationarity and integrated at the first-order difference, whereas inflation was stationary at the level. The Johansen cointegration test found a long-run relationship between selected variables, but only external debt positively impacted economic growth in the long term. In contrast, inflation and unemployment had a negative impact. The regression results found external debt to be positively correlated to growth in Ghana, but inflation and unemployment harm it with GDP as the explained variable. The findings also indicate that external debt increased inflation, whereas GDP reduced inflation, but unemployment did not influence inflation. The outcome further proves that external debt positively impacted the unemployment rate, and GDP negatively influenced it.
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Libman, Emiliano, and Gabriel Palazzo. "Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina." European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention 17, no. 1 (April 17, 2020): 78–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2019.00050.
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This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.
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Libman, Emiliano, and Gabriel Palazzo. "Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina." European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention 17, no. 1 (April 17, 2020): 78–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2019.0050.
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This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.
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Asghar, Nabila, Muhammad Asif Amjad, and Hafeez-ur Rehman. "Historical Perspective of External Debt in Pakistan: Identifying Key Determinants / Strategies." Review of Economics and Development Studies 8, no. 1 (March 31, 2022): 13–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/reads.v8i1.427.
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The non-developmental use of external debt creates macroeconomic instability which results in massive unemployment, poverty, inflation, and political instability in any country. The present study is focused on historical perspective of external debt in Pakistan. This study found that the leadership of Pakistan has heavily borrowed external debt without considering its sustainability and repayment capacity. On the basis of the systematic literature review of past studies, the key policy variables are highlighted to reduce the burden of external debt. The study indicated that external debt burden of Pakistan can be managed by lowering the consumption oriented imports, focusing targeted inflation, exchange rate and by promoting sustainable inclusive economic growth. The policy mix based on efficient management of macro-economic indicators are helpful in addressing external debt in Pakistan.
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Kurniasih, Cut Endang, and Dahlan Tampubolon. "Pengaruh Inflasi Domestik dan Utang Luar Negeri terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah." Ecoplan 5, no. 1 (April 29, 2022): 29–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v5i1.378.
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Indonesia is a country that carries an open economy. Various internal and external factors will contribute to influencing the changes in the exchange rate at the same time. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of domestic inflation and external debt on the Rupiah exchange rate using secondary data from 2010.Q1 to 2021.Q1. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis was used to analyze the data (ARDL). The study's findings confirmed the existence of a significant long-term relationship between the examined variables based on the analysis. It was found that both domestic inflation and external debt have a positive and significant effect on the Rupiah exchange rate over the long run, according to the long-run estimation results. Further, domestic inflation positively impacts the Rupiah exchange rate in the short-term estimation results, whereas external debt has a negative effect. Based on these findings, the government should maintain control over monetary variables such as inflation and the exchange rate through appropriate monetary policies and ensure that all external debt is prudently managed and directed toward more productive uses to mitigate exchange rate risk.
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Aimola, Akingbade U., and Nicholas M. Odhiambo. "Public Debt and Inflation: A Review of International Literature." Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 20, no. 1 (June 1, 2020): 9–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/foli-2020-0001.
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AbstractResearch background: Public debt arises mainly from debt-financed deficits. More and more countries are resorting to additional public indebtedness to raise additional financial resources to meet government funding needs, which are unattainable by the usual tax means. As a result, increasingly, government spending is rising faster than revenue is received, and the excess is financed mainly through domestic and external borrowings. Expensive borrowings by a government (in an environment of increasing interest rates) may be harmful to inflation and the macroeconomic stabilisation process. This trend is raising concerns among policymakers as it undermines macroeconomic stability, especially in developing economies with relatively weak and dependent monetary authorities in the formulation and implementation of monetary policies. Hence, the association between public debt and inflation is of importance in the inflationary process of an economy.Purpose: In this paper, theoretical and empirical literature on the link between public debt and inflation has been surveyed in detail. The focus of the paper was centred on the review of literature on the link between total public debt, external public debt, domestic public debt and inflation.Research methodology: This paper presents an extensive review of scholarly studies on the link between public debt and inflation based on their results. The paper analysed, synthesised, and critically evaluated previous studies on the relationship between public debt and inflation on both the theoretical and empirical fronts.Results: The literature reviewed revealed the association between public debt and inflation. The surveyed literature shows that the relationship between public debt and inflation varies from country to country, with either a positive or negative relationship. However, in the majority of the literature, the link between public debt and inflation tilts towards a positive relationship. This finding is more prominent in indebted countries with higher levels of public debt and a less-developed financial market. Although there is no consensus on the positive or negative relationship between public debt and inflation, the study found that a positive relationship between public debt and inflation tends to predominate among the studies reviewed.Novelty: The study provides an insight into the relationship between public debt and inflation based on a detailed review of literature on the subject in both developed and developing economies.
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ABOUDI, Sara EL, and Imad KHANCHAOUI. "Exploring the Impact of Inflation and External Debt on Economic Growth in Morocco: An Empirical Investigation with an ARDL Approach." Asian Economic and Financial Review 11, no. 11 (November 15, 2021): 894–907. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2021.1111.894.907.
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This article seeks to empirically assess the effect of inflation and external debt on economic growth in Morocco. The estimates cover the period from 1985 to 2019. The results from the ARDL model show that external debt negatively influences the country's growth in the short and long terms. Due to its direct effect, inflation slows down economic activity and leads to lower GDP growth. The econometric estimate indicates that the low level of inflation leads to difficulties in repaying debt and, consequently, reduced economic growth. Low inflation also hurts economic competitiveness among small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Although the inflation rate is lower than the interest rates, it reduces the profit margins of companies and leads to lower investment. The negative effect on economic competitiveness leads to decreased sectoral added value, reducing future economic growth rates. Based on the results, two main measures are proposed to mitigate the negative effect of inflation and debt on economic growth. First, we must develop better institutional and governance quality. The latter allows debt funds to be well spent on non-rent-producing sectors capable of reviving the Moroccan economy. Second, we have to look for good inflation, in other words, inflation that stimulates economic activity without creating economic distortions.
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Ellis, Michael A. "External debt and fiscal adjustment in anti-inflation programs." Journal of Macroeconomics 18, no. 4 (September 1996): 727–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0164-0704(96)80061-9.
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PALLEY, THOMAS I. "Escaping the debt constraint on growth: a suggested monetary policy for Brazil." Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 24, no. 1 (March 2004): 38–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572004-1635.
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ABSTRACT Existing interest rates imply explosive debt dynamics for Brazil. It also faces rising inflation from earlier currency depreciations, which could trigger future depreciation. These conditions impose a policy contradiction. Brazil needs lower interest rates for debt sustainability, but tight monetary policy to avoid exchange rate depreciation and inflation. The paper develops a strategy to escape this contradiction. Policy must bolster investor confidence to lower external interest rates, lower domestic interest rates to reduce debt service burdens, and implement domestic credit creation controls to control inflation.
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Iskandar, Mukhamad Yusuf. "ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA PERIODE 1985-2020." Transekonomika: Akuntansi, Bisnis dan Keuangan 2, no. 6 (August 27, 2022): 21–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.55047/transekonomika.v2i6.263.
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Indonesia is one of the developing countries in the Asian continent that uses foreign debt as aid to support the country's economic development, resulting in an increase in Indonesia's foreign debt every year. On the other hand, increasing foreign/external debt is one of the economic problems caused by world economic shocks or when an economic recession is occurring. This study aims to determine the relationship between the variabels of the level of exports, imports, and inflation rates on Indonesia's external debt. The analysis technique used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with a research period from 1985 to 2020 and using the E-Views 10 application. The test results show that the variabels of exports, imports, and inflation have a significant relationship with external debt in the long term. While the relationship in the short term shows a less significant relationship between these variabels.
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León Serrano, Lady Andrea. "Deuda externa y crecimiento económico de México, período 2002-2014." ECA Sinergia 10, no. 3 (September 17, 2019): 119. http://dx.doi.org/10.33936/eca_sinergia.v10i3.1882.
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México es uno de los países más influyentes de América Latina, por el avance comercial, manejo crediticio y de crisis económicas, a pesar de tener índices de endeudamiento externo altos, es considerada una economía emergente. Por tal motivo, el objetivo de estudio es conocer el impacto de la deuda externa en el crecimiento económico de México, período 2002–2014. Se ha considerado variables macroeconómicas con la aplicación de modelos econométricos como regresión bivariado y múltiple, los datos corresponden al Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Los resultados evidencian una fuerte correlación inversa entre deuda externa y desempleo, y una débil relación con inflación y producto interno bruto. Se concluye que los porcentajes de desempleo afectan el nivel de endeudamiento externo provocando renegociaciones de deuda para solventar necesidades internas en el marco de decisiones de política macroeconómica.
Palabras clave: deuda externa, desempleo, inflación, producto interno bruto, crecimiento.
ABSTRACT
Mexico is one of the most influential countries in Latin America, because of the commercial advance, credit management and economic crises, despite having high external debt ratios, it is considered an emerging economy. For this reason, the objective of the study is to know the impact of external debt on Mexico’s economic growth, 2002-2014 period. Macroeconomic variables have been considered with the application of econometric models such as bivariate and multiple regression, the data correspond to the Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). he results show a strong inverse correlation between external debt and unemployment, and a weak relationship with inflation and gross domestic product. It is concluded that the percentages of unemployment affect the level of external indebtedness causing debt renegotiations to solve internal needs within the framework of macroeconomic policy decisions.
Key words: External debt, unemployment, inflation, gross domestic product, growth.
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Mensah, David, Anthony Q. Q. Aboagye, Joshua Y. Abor, and Anthony Kyereboah-Coleman. "External debt among HIPCs in Africa: accounting and panel VAR analysis of some determinants." Journal of Economic Studies 44, no. 3 (August 14, 2017): 431–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-05-2015-0080.
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Purpose The management of external debt among highly indebted poor countries (HIPCs) in Africa still remains a challenge despite numerous packages and attempts to ameliorate the consequences of such odious debt. The purpose of this paper is to establish the factors that contribute to the growth rate of external debt and how these factors respond to shocks to external debt growth rate in Africa. Design/methodology/approach Data were obtained from 24 African countries and analyzed using a panel vector autoregression estimation methodology. Findings The study found that external debt growth rates respond positively to unit shock or changes in government investment spending, consumption spending, and domestic borrowings over a long period of time. In the medium term, external debt growth rates respond negatively to shocks in tax revenue, inflation, and output growth rates. The paper also provides empirical support that external debt may be consumed rather than invested among HIPCs in Africa. Research limitations/implications The findings of this paper are limited to only HIPCs in Africa. Practical implications This study has some few debilitating implications for external debt management among HIPCs in Africa. First, the paper suggests that debt repayment may be a problem. This is largely because external debt is consumed rather than invested. External debt sustainability needs a holistic approach in less developed countries. The findings place much emphasis on improvements in gross domestic product and tax revenues as the principal routes out of the debt doldrums. However, this option must be exploited with great caution as there is ample evidence that these poor countries increase their external borrowing capacities with improvements in economic outlook. Originality/value This paper fills a research gap that identifies specific components of government deficit budgets that may be contributing to the growth rate of external debts among HIPCs.
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Onwuka, Chinonye Emmanuel. "External Debt Burden and Infrastructural Development Nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach (1981-2020)." IIARD INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT 8, no. 3 (September 19, 2022): 51–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.56201/ijebm.v8.no3.2022.pg51.66.
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This study focused on external debt burden and infrastructural development nexus in Nigeria using data spanning between the periods 1981 to 2020 by employing the use of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and granger causality test as the major statistical techniques of analysis. From the findings, the coefficient of error correction term shows that about 70 percent of the discrepancy between the actual and the long run or equilibrium value of infrastructural development is corrected or eliminated each year. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.680 which shows that about 68 percent variations in the infrastructural development were explained by the independent variables. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test shows that all variables were stationary at first difference. The results for the Bounds test reveal that there is a long run relationship among the variables. This is because the F-statistics value (5.194) is greater than upper Bounds critical values at 5% level of significant. The ARDL results show that external debt, domestic debt and inflation rate have a negative impact on infrastructural development in the long run while exchange rate and interest rate has a positive effect on infrastructural development in the long run. Also, domestic debt and exchange rate were found to have a significant impact on infrastructural development while external debt, inflation rate and interest rate were found to be insignificant in the long run. Furthermore, the granger causality test results indicate while there is no causality between external debt and infrastructural development, there seems to be a unidirectional causality between domestic debt and infrastructural growth in Nigeria. The study concludes that federal government of the country should cut down excessive borrowings and that the existing ones are invested in projects that would eventually generate enough returns to defray such debts accordingly. Also, an adoption of policy framework that will ensure macroeconomic stability such as price stability, job creation, increased output, political stability, etc. becomes fundamental in getting rid of heavy reliance on external debt in the country
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Ali, Hina, Fatima Farooq, and Najma Mumtaz. "Trade Openness, External Debt and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Modeling Approach & Co-Integration Causality Analysis." Review of Economics and Development Studies 2, no. 2 (December 31, 2016): 93–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/reads.v2i2.127.
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This Empirical study Explores the Influence of trade openness and external debt on economic growth by using time series data from 1974 -2016. Gross domestic Product (GDP) as dependent variable while Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, External debt, Capital formation and Trade as explanatory variable are used. Unit Root Test applies to check the stationary of data in which GDP & INF are integrate at level 1(0) while the channel of variables like FDI, T, ED, CF are integrate at 1stdifference. Auto-regressive distributed lagged model (ARDL) technique applies for estimation. The study finds out the relation between channels of variable that how these variables are interrelated. The findings indicate that External debt and capital formation has Inverse influence on Economic growth while Trade Openness, Inflation, foreign Direct Investment has positive impact on economic growth.
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Dauti, Bardhyl, and Ismet Voka. "External Debt and Economic Growth in the Western Balkan Countries, with special focus to Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia in the course of the pandemic COVID-19." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS 19 (July 25, 2022): 1303–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23207.2022.19.117.
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The objective of this study is to offer an empirical valuation of the relationship between external debt and economic growth in the Western Balkan (WB) countries, focusing specifically on the countries like Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia, combined with other WB countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. The empirical model provides the impact of external debt and other control variables like total investments, population growth, inflation, literacy ratio, trade openness on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries, using a panel level data for 6 Western Balkan countries, covering a yearly time span: 2000-2022. Different estimation methodologies like Fixed Effects with Driscol and Kraay standard errors, robust LSDV and GMM estimates, were employed for the purpose of the research. The findings of the research confirm growth-deteriorating effect of external debt for target group of countries like Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia and growth enhancement effect of external debt for the second group of countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. Other control variables like total investments, trade openness, inflation and population growth are found as crucial factors on explaining growth performance of the WB countries. In addition, COVID-19 interacted with external debt and financial crisis interacted with external debt, appears as crucial factors explaining growth pattern of the WB countries.
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Nabila, Rifda, and Malik Anwar. "The Effect of Zakat, Foreign Debt and Inflation Toward the Economic Growth of Indonesia Through Consumption in 2010-2019." Journal of Economics and Regional Science 1, no. 1 (April 1, 2021): 11–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.52421/jurnal-esensi.v1i1.125.
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This study aims to examine the effect of zakat, foreign debt, inflation on economic growth with consumption as an intervening variable. This research uses quantitative methods with time series data. The sample used is as much as 40 for each variable from 2010-2019. This research method uses multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that zakat has a significant positive effect on consumption, foreign debt and inflation have a positive and insignificant effect on consumption, consumption has a significant positive effect on economic growth, zakat has a significant positive effect on economic growth, foreign debt has a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth. Inflation has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. Zakat has a significant positive effect on economic growth through consumption. External debt and domestic inflation have an insignificant positive effect on economic growth through consumption.
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Gylfason, Thorvaldur. "Inflation, Growth, and External Debt: A View of the Landscape." World Economy 14, no. 3 (September 1991): 279–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.1991.tb00849.x.
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Assibey-Yeboah, Mark, Sushanta Mallick, and Mohammed Mohsin. "Real Effects of Inflation on External Debt in Developing Economies." International Journal of Finance & Economics 21, no. 4 (July 11, 2016): 398–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1553.
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Omodero, Cordelia Onyinyechi. "External Debt Financing and Public Capital Investment in Nigeria: A Critical Evaluation." Economics and Business 33, no. 1 (January 1, 2019): 111–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eb-2019-0008.
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Abstract This study considers the consequences of external loan on capital investment in Nigeria. Data for the study have been collected from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2018 edition. The variables on which data are sourced include government capital expenditure, external debt accumulation, debt servicing cost, inflation rate, and exchange rate. Government capital expenditure is the dependent variable, while external debt accumulation and debt servicing cost are the key independent variables. Inflation and exchange rates are used as the moderating variables. The scope of the study covers the period from 1996 to 2018 and the data are analysed using the ordinary least squares multiple regression method. The regression results indicate that external debt has a significant negative impact on capital investment while debt servicing cost has a strong and significant positive effect on capital investment. Under this circumstance, the controlling variables are not significant in influencing capital investment. Hence, the study suggests more focus on profitable capital investments if external borrowing must be embarked upon. The need for the development of untapped natural resources, establishment of industries and revival of abandoned industries to boost debt repayment has been emphasized. The study also strongly recommends that the existing governments (state and federal) should endeavour to complete capital projects of past administrations in order to drive the economy and to avoid wastage of financial resources including the borrowed funds.
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Bozdar, Imran Khan, Nazar Hussain, Irfan Ali Lashari, Ali Raza Lashari, and Abdullah Shah. "Analyzing the Impact of IMF Policies on the Economic Health of the Pakistan." iRASD Journal of Economics 5, no. 1 (February 26, 2023): 700–708. http://dx.doi.org/10.52131/joe.2023.0501.0109.
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The International Monetary Fund is called a lender of a last resort for those countries who are in need of emergency bail outs. Countries faced bankruptcies as they exhausted all of their options hence the option left for them is to approach the IMF. The International Monetary Fund was originally founded on the idea of helping countries who were to finance their debts. This would have provided stability in the financial market, improve growth and reduce poverty. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of IMF policies on the economic health of the Pakistan. The results suggest that IMF programs have increased external debt to GDP ratio, which in return increased debt burden on the economy. IMF policies led to increase in taxes, which induce inflation and lower growth. The results further concluded that structural adjustment programs affected negatively to the domestic economy. Due to IMF, economy has to achieve stabilization, which leads decline in growth. The decline in fiscal deficits through increase in taxes and reduction in development expenditure led to increase in unemployment and social decline. The devaluation of the currency increases inflation in the economy whereas reduction subsidies increase costs in the rural economy. As most of the agricultural inputs required subsidies so they are mostly effected by reduction in subsidies. The IMF program also increases pressure on external debt, which leads to acquiring of further debt in order to pay the previous debt. This accumulation of debt increases external debt to GDP ratio and increases the sovereign risk of a country. To come out of vicious cycle perpetuated by IMF prescription, Pakistan needs alternate solutions including overhaul of its export policy to boost export; aggressive privatization to curtail expenditure; floating of international bonds to build up foreign exchange reserves and invest agriculture, livestock and dairy sectors for inclusive growth.
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Nafea Al-Zararee, Abdul, and Atif Batarseh. "The impact of external factors on the monetary stability in Jordan for the period 1990–2015." Banks and Bank Systems 14, no. 1 (February 5, 2019): 29–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.14(1).2019.04.
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This study aimed to examine the impact of external factors (external grants and aid, external public debt, remittances of Jordanians labor abroad and external shocks) on the efficiency of the monetary policy, which aims at achieving monetary stability through influencing inflation rates in Jordan during the period 1990–2015, by using standard regression equation estimated by the ordinary least squares (OLS). The findings of the study showed a statistically significant impact at 1% of each of the external grants and aid, and remittances of Jordanians labor abroad on the efficiency of monetary policy through targeting inflation rates in Jordan. As to the variables of external public debt and external shocks, the findings showed a weak impact, which was not statistically significant at a reasonable level, on the efficiency of monetary policy. The researchers recommended that decision-makers pay further attention to the vital role of the remittances of the Jordanians labor abroad, which is one of the main bases of the Jordanian economy. This is due to its crucial impact on the Jordanian economy.
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Anam, Chairul. "Study of Internal Factors and External Factors of Insurance Companies Towards Company Value (Study on Indonesia Stock Exchange)." SHS Web of Conferences 86 (2020): 01010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20208601010.
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The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of the company’s external factors with proxies: inflation and interest rates, and the company’s internal factors with proxies: Return on Equity, and Debt to Equity Ratio partially and simultaneously to firm value in insurance sector companies listed on the Stock Exchange Indonesia. The research method used in this study is quantitative research methods, with the object of research of insurance companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, amounting to 14 companies. This study used a purposive sampling technique that produced 8 companies as the research sample. The research data source uses secondary data in the form of documents including data about the company’s general description and financial statements of insurance companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for 5 years. The results of this study indicate inflation, interest rates, Return on Equity, and Debt to Equity Ratio simultaneously have a positive but not significant effect on company value, then partially the other 3 variables, namely inflation, interest rates, and Debt to Equity Ratio have a positive effect but not significant to firm value, while variable Return on Equity has a positive and significant effect on firm value. Based on the coefficient of determination of 0.138 this shows the influence of 4 variables, namely inflation, interest rates, return on equity, debt to equity ratio of 13.8% while the remaining 86.2% is influenced by other factors, for example: the level of competition, policy company, developments in macroeconomic conditions.
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A., Ademuyiwa J., and Adetunji A. A. "Impact of Some Economic Variables on the Real Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria." Budapest International Research and Critics Institute (BIRCI-Journal) : Humanities and Social Sciences 2, no. 4 (November 6, 2019): 12–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.33258/birci.v2i4.563.
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The influences of External Debt Service (EDS), External Debt Stock (EDSt), Government Expenditure (GE), Inflation Rate (InfR), Interest Rate (IntR) and Exchange Rate (ExR) of Nigeria on the Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) are examined. Results of the analysis using Stepwise Regression (Backward Elimination and Forward Selection) reveals that GE, EDS, and IntR have positive significant contributions to the RGDP of the country compared to other variables considered.
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Sari, Septiana, and Fernaldi Anggadha Ratno. "Analisis utang luar negeri, sukuk, inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia Tahun 2014-2019." Jurnal Riset Pendidikan Ekonomi 5, no. 2 (September 21, 2020): 91–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.21067/jrpe.v5i2.4661.
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The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of Foreign Debt (X1), Sukuk (X2), Inflation (X3) and Interest Rate (X4) on Economic Growth (Y). This type of research is quantitative research using regression analysis as data analysis and using secondary data in the form of time series. The data used are monthly data from Foreign Debt, Sukuk, Inflation and Interest Rates and Economic Growth in 2014-2019 Data that has been obtained 72 samples then analyzed using the application tool E-views 9. Based on the results of this study indicate that the partial dependent variable External Debt influences positively and insignificantly, Sukuk positively influences and insignificantly, Inflation influences positively and insignificantly and Interest Rates have a positive and insignificant effect on the independent variables Economic Growth shown through Gross Domestic Product (GDP ).
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Ngassam, Christopher. "Factors Affecting the External Debt-Servicing Capacity of African Nations: An Empirical Investigation." Review of Black Political Economy 20, no. 2 (December 1991): 45–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02689926.
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While there have been a vast number of studies and international discussions on developing nations’ debt servicing capacity, not much attention has been focused on the African dimension. This article examines the determinants of debt reschedulings for forty-five African nations over the twelve-year period 1976 to 1987. A logit model of the macroeconomic variables affecting the probability of rescheduling is developed. The findings indicate that debt-service ratio, reserves to imports ratio, debt-service payments to capital inflow ratio, GDP growth rate, rate of domestic inflation, and net government deficit to GDP ratio are important indicators of debt servicing capacity. The overall results, while providing strong support for some of the often-mentioned causes of the African debt crisis, are seen to hold useful possibilities for both the debtor countries and international creditors.
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Wijayanti, Rani, and Sagita Rachmanira. "Early Warning System for Government Debt Crisis in Developing Countries." Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 9, s1 (July 1, 2020): 103–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2020-0025.
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AbstractThis study develops an early warning signal (EWS) of government debt crisis using a panel data consisting of 43 developing countries over the period of 1960 to 2017. It employs two different methods: the noise to signal ratio to capture the signaling power of individual indicators; and the binomial logistic regression to construct a more general model. The binomial logistic regression offers a better predictive power relative to the noise to signal ratio. The binomial logistic regression can predict 61.5% of the government debt crisis 2 years in advance. An increase in inflation, government and private debt exposures, external debt to exports, ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves, and the ratio of external interest payments to gross national income can signal an upcoming debt crisis. Similarly, a continuous decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) and government consumption also increase the likelihood of government debt crisis.
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Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar, and Sidheswar Panda. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach." Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research 14, no. 3 (July 31, 2020): 253–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973801020920092.
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The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy. JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40
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Shuaibu*, Mukhtar, Husayn Mahmud Muhammad, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi, and Umar Garba Gwazawa. "Impact of Public Debt on Inflation and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Vector Error Correction Model." Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, no. 65 (October 23, 2021): 91–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.51550/nijefr65.91.98.
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Debt is an important source of government funds in developed and developing countries. In developed countries, debt is an important source of money for bridging the gap between government revenues and expenditures. This paper measures the impact of public debt on inflation and unemployment in Nigeria during the period 1985 to 2020. It uses annual data of 36 years range to conduct various types of econometric tests. It uses Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL) Error Correction Model (ECM) for the analysis of the data. Unit root tests and Granger causality tests were also conducted to test the efficacy and predictive capability of the model. The findings of the study show that long run relationship exists between public debt and unemployment in Nigeria. It shows that increase in public debt causes more unemployment, but that external debt causes more unemployment than domestic debt. But the results of cointegration analysis show absence of relationship between public debt and inflation. The paper recommends reduction in public debt and if at all government must borrow, then it shall give priority to domestic debt over foreign debt.
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Salim, M. Noor, and Evilin Sri Wahyuni. "THE EFFECT OF INTERNAL, EXTERNAL FACTORS ON CORPORATE PERFORMANCE AND ITS IMPACT ON CORPORATE VALUES IN INDONESIA MANUFACTURING COMPANIES IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SUB SECTOR AND ITS COMPONENTS IN 2008-2017." International Journal of Engineering Technologies and Management Research 6, no. 6 (March 27, 2020): 101–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/ijetmr.v6.i6.2019.398.
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This study aims to find out: (1) Effect of Current Ratio (CR), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), inflation and the IDR exchange rate on Return on Assets (ROA); (2) Effect of Current Ratio (CR), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), inflation and the IDR exchange rate against Price to Book value (PBV); (3) Effect of Return on Assets (ROA) on Price to Book value (PBV); (4) Role of Return on Assets ROA as an intervening variable between Current Ratio (CR), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), inflation and the IDR exchange rate with Price to Book value (PBV). The research sample is the automotive sub-sector manufacturing company and its components in the period 2008-2017 as many as 9 companies. The results of the study with panel data show that simultaneously CR, DER, inflation and the rupiah exchange rate affect ROA, partially CR and inflation have no significant effect on ROA, while DER and the IDR exchange rate have a significant effect on ROA. Simultaneously CR, DER, inflation and the IDR exchange rate affect PBV, partially CR, DER and inflation have no significant effect on PBV, while the IDR exchange rate has a significant effect on PBV. 12. The role of ROA as an intervening variable is very important in increasing the influence of CR, DER, inflation and the IDR exchange rate against Price to Book Value (PBV).
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Zafar, Rabia, and Muhammad Maleeq-Ul-Islam Zafar. "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth Rate: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan." Technium Social Sciences Journal 27 (January 8, 2022): 445–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.47577/tssj.v27i1.5388.
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The major objective of this study is to check the effect of external debt on the GDP growth of Pakistan. For this purpose annual time series data were used for the period 1980 to 2020. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to check the stationary status of the data and the least square method was applied for the estimation of the results. For the analysis GDP growth rate was taken as a dependent variable and other variables, such as economic growth (Annual %), inflation rate (CPI %), Foreign Direct Investment net inflow (% of GDP), multi-lateral debt services (% of public and publically generated debt service), Total debt service (% of GNI), Short term debt (% of total reserves) were taken as explanatory variables. Findings revealed that the total debt and multilateral debt negatively affect the GDP growth rate, whereas, FDI and short term debt are positively associated with growth rate. It is suggested that to improve the economic growth Pakistan should focus on investment projects and there is a need to implementation better policies for foreign debt utilization
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Fortune, Uzochukwu Ojelubechukwu. "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria." African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 4, no. 3 (October 3, 2021): 72–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.52589/ajesd-mzso1np8.
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This study examined external borrowing and economic growth in Nigeria covering the period 1981 – 2019. The main objective of the study is to ascertain the impact of external borrowing on economic growth in Nigeria. Times series data on GDP, external debt, exchange rate, external debt servicing payments and inflation were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin 2018 was used for the study. The method of data analysis and evaluation were the unit-root test which was used to ascertain the stationary status of the variables, the linear regression with the application of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique and the Granger causality analysis. The major findings of the study are that all the variables are stationary at first difference I(1), external debt has a negative and insignificant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria ( = -0004912, p-value = 0.6944 > 0.05) and there is no causality relationship existing between external debt and economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that the federal government should acquire external debt largely for economic reasons rather than social or political reasons. This would increase the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the nation.
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Al-Masaeed, Abdullah Ali, and Evgeny Tsaregorodtsev. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Economic Growth of Jordan." International Journal of Economics and Finance 10, no. 10 (September 30, 2018): 145. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n10p145.
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The present study examined the impact of fiscal policy measured by (Government expenditure, Government revenues, internal public debt, external public debt) in addition to exports and inflation factors on the Jordanian GDP growth for the period 1990-2010. The study used multiple linear regression and least squares method (OLS) to test the study hypotheses. The study found that government expenditure, exports and government revenues has a positive and significant impact on the Jordanian GDP growth, and negative and significant impact on the Jordanian GDP growth. The study found that external public debt has a negative but not significant impact on the Jordanian GDP growth.
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Sheremeta, S. V., and A. N. Mogilat. "Analysis of debt burden and credit of corporate sector: Estimates for Russia and cross-country cases." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5 (May 28, 2018): 25–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-25-48.
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The paper discusses dynamics of private sector debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service ratio (DSR). We show that the level of DSR for developing countries is less than that of DSR for developed countries, and has a more volatile dynamics. Developing countries face significant risk from external sector of the economy due to high level of their dependence on external debt - through currency revaluation, on the one hand, and reciprocal growth of interest rates, on the other hand. This is illustrated, for example, by the situation in Russia in 2014-2016. We also show that countries with monetary policy based on inflation targeting face much more downplayed response of DSR shocks on their economic activity than countries with different regimes of monetary policy. That is why currency crises in several regions including South-East Asia and Russia, have led to significant growth in DSR and forwarded shift to inflation targeting in these countries. Along with shocks of DSR related to volatility of foreign currency, we explore those related to inflation and monetary conditions, abrupt changes in economic activity, etc. The paper also focuses on factors of DSR dynamics, including interest rates, terms, volumes, foreign currency revaluation, and its decomposition on the long period of time.
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Folorunso, Benjamin Ayodele. "Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in Nigeria: an Error Correction Approach." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 5, no. 6 (June 30, 2013): 346–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v5i6.410.
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The paper examined the nexus between fiscal deficit and public debt in Nigeria. Public debt was disaggregated into domestic and external debt with a view to analyzing the causal relationship and relative effect of both categories of debt on fiscal deficit. Time series data were collected from Statistical Bulletins published by the Central Bank of Nigeria from 1970 to 2011. Except for inflation rate that was I(0), the unit root test results revealed stationarity of fiscal balance, public debt and its components, income, exchange rate and rate of interest series at their first difference; they are I(1) series. Pair-wise Granger causality results support bi-directional relationship between fiscal balance and public debt as well as its domestic component while causality run only from external debt to fiscal deficit. Johansen cointegration results also confirmed the existence of cointegrating relationships at 5 per cent level of significance. In addition, error correction estimates revealed that fiscal balance had significant positive relationship with debt in Nigeria in both the short and long run. The results showed that 1 per cent increase in public debt resulted in an increase of 1.85 per cent in fiscal deficit. In addition, 1 per cent increase in fiscal deficit resulted into 0.08 per cent increase in public debt. The paper further confirmed that domestic debt has greater impact on fiscal deficit than external debt. The paper concluded that the Nigerian government should consider appropriate mix of domestic debt and external debt as a mean of financing budget deficit.
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Mosley, Layna, and B. Peter Rosendorff. "The Unfolding Sovereign Debt Crisis." Current History 122, no. 840 (January 1, 2023): 9–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/curh.2023.122.840.9.
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Following the 2008 global financial crisis, years of low interest rates provided a rare opportunity for many developing nations to borrow in international markets—whether issuing bonds in their own currencies, securing loans from private-sector banks and commodity traders, or borrowing from China, which emerged as a dominant official creditor. Developing countries’ overall external debt rose to a record level during this period. As central banks raise interest rates sharply to counter a global rise in inflation, many of these countries are at risk of default. The mix of public and private creditors and the opacity of many loan terms make it difficult to coordinate restructuring. The key factor may be domestic politics.
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Waldi, Ihsanul, and Syamsul Amar. "Pengaruh Inflasi, Tingkat Bunga, Emas Dunia, dan Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah." Ecosains: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 9, no. 2 (November 9, 2020): 114. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/ecosains.11574257.00.
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This study aims to look at the effect of macroeconomic variables on the rupiah exchange rate, which in this study involves variables from internal and external factors. The independent variables used are inflation, interest rates, gold prices and foreign debt, and the dependent variable is the exchange rate. This study uses time series data in the country of Indonesia with a span of quarter 1 in 2009 to 4 in 2018. The research model uses multiple linear regression with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results showed that inflation and interest rates did not significantly influence the rupiah exchange rate. However, the price of gold and foreign debt have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate.
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Istikomah, Navik. "ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI “CAPITAL FLIGHT” DI INDONESIA (Period Kuartal I 1990 s.d. Kuartal IV 2000)." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 6, no. 2 (December 15, 2004): 12–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v6i2.325.
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The purpose of this research is to identify the problems of the effect of economic variables, that is, changes of exchange rates Rp/US$, external debt, economic growth, inflation, differences of interest rate of Indonesian- America, Foreign Direct Investment, political stability condition, on capital flight in Indonesia, for period 1st quarter, 1990 – 4th quarter, 2000. The determinants of capital flight in Indonesia use cointegration equation model of Likelihood Johansen’s. The estimation completed by time series data validity, that is, unit-roots-test and co-integration-test.The result of research indicate that independent variable on model, that is, changes of exchange rates Rp/US$, external debt, economic growth, inflation, differences of interest rate of Indonesian-America, Foreign Direct Investment, and political stability condition, on the long run could explain changes of capital flight about 58,85 percent and altogether significant (computed-F = 7,1520 > value-F = 3,192). Partially, knowed that all variable on model, exceptly inflation and differences of interest rate of Indonesia-America, to have significant influence on capital flight in Indonesia. All variable sufficient stationery-condition at first different and the model could cointegrated at first different.Keywords: Capital Flight and determinant factors, and Cointegration of Johansen’s Likelihood
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Boshra Ghaly, Sherine. "External debt in time of inflation in Egypt: a vector error correction model." المجلة العلمیة للدراسات والبحوث المالیة والتجاریة 4, no. 1 (January 1, 2023): 661–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.21608/cfdj.2023.258059.
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van Wijnbergen, Sweder. "External Debt, Inflation, and the Public Sector: Toward Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Growth." World Bank Economic Review 3, no. 3 (1989): 297–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wber/3.3.297.
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Akosah, Nana Kwame. "Empirical appraisal of fiscal stability: the case of Ghana." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 5 (October 12, 2015): 753–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2014-0045.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to appraise the stability of Ghana’s fiscal policy by assessing government’s reaction in the past to rising public debt over the last three decades. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data spanning 1990Q1-2013Q2, the study evaluated the mean reverting properties of Ghana’s public debt and also estimate the fiscal policy reaction function. The complementary estimation techniques include Pesaran et al. (2001) bound testing cointegration test, differencing method and also Granger two-step cointegration methods. Findings – Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2013Q2, the study found the fiscal policy to be unstable in the 1990s, necessitating the adoption of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries’ initiative in 2001. The fiscal situation however relatively stabilizes afterwards following the external debt relief in 2001. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the recent fiscal policy (since 2006) seems to be confronted with tremendous fiscal pressures, exacerbated by fiscal excesses during election cycles as well as excessive domestic and external borrowings. In addition, the economic growth-debt link was found to be weak, though debt appears to adversely affect economic growth. Research limitations/implications – The study does not thoroughly explore the possibility of non-linear relationship between public debt and primary balance. Also, the result could be different using different data frequencies. Practical implications – The state of government finance has implications on the monetary policy and economic growth prospects of an economy. As an inflation targeting central bank since 2002, a successful monetary policy implementation that reins in inflation requires fiscal policy that curtails fiscal volatilities originating from imprudent behaviour of government. Therefore, the looming fiscal pressures in recent times would impair the effective implementation of the inflation targeting framework by the central bank, and also retard economic growth as the bulk of these expenditures are usually recurrent in the case of Ghana. Originality/value – This is the first paper to employ complementary econometric techniques to empirically evaluate fiscal sustainability in Ghana.
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Kemal, Muhammad Ali. "Policy of Inflation Targeting in the Presence of Fiscal Deficit and External Debt: Opt or Not to Opt." Pakistan Development Review 50, no. 4II (December 1, 2011): 841–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v50i4iipp.841-852.
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The main task of the macroeconomic policy-makers is to control unemployment and inflation at the minimum possible level. Different policies have been tried to control inflation at its minimum possible level and inflation targeting is the most popular among them. It is the commitment to maintain inflation at the announced level and use interest rate as an instrument to control it if it is expected to diverge from the announced level. However in a higher \dollar denominated debt. country Central Bank is reluctant to increase interest rate because it pressurises the foreign exchange market, which leads to exchange rate depreciation. If there is exchange rate pass through effect to prices, depreciation leads to increase in prices. Thus increase in interest rate does not decrease prices instead results in increase in prices. The two important linkages were tested in this study are (i) increase in real interest rate depreciates the currency, and (ii) depreciation in real exchange rate leads to increase in prices. Using VAR model we concluded that real exchange rate is not significantly associated to the real interest rate in the short run and exchange rate pass through effect to prices is not present in Pakistan.
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Sitepu, Vido Metti. "The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and External Debt on Economic Growth in Indonesia." International Journal on Social Science, Economics and Art 11, no. 2 (August 1, 2021): 78–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.35335/ijosea.v11i2.50.
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Indonesia as a development country, has a good economic growth in the 1990's. It shows by increasing of GDP year by year, stabilization of inflation, etc. But since 1997's economic crisis in Asia's countries, Indonesia's economic growth has been declining. It effected the monetary sector and real sector, and add again with progressively the amount of foreign debt of Indonesia, so that effect of Rupiah rate wich progressively weakening. This paper will analyze the foreign direct investment also foreign debt, on the economic growth of Indonesia. By using the OLS model on Indonesia yearly data from 1975-2009 and the confirm the significant of these independent variables as the factors that effected the economic growth of Indonesia. Foreign direct investment and foreing debt represent the way able to be gone through by government in overcoming deficit of national saving utilize to push the national development to get the good economic growth. Pursuant to things told above, writer try to study the problem of economic growth in Indonesia in its relation with the foreign direct investment and foreign debt by lifting title “Influence on The Foreign Direct Investment and The Foreign Debt to Economic Growth of Indonesia”.
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Hur-Yagba, Ayangeadoo Alphonsus, Helen Elena Jekele, and Kasim Umar. "Foreign Debts Strategy Thesis for Improved Living Standard: The Nigerian Experience." East African Journal of Business and Economics 3, no. 1 (January 7, 2021): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.37284/eajbe.3.1.263.
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This study examined whether foreign debts have been able to improve or otherwise Nigeria’s economy towards improving the living standard of her citizenry with respect to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), USD exchange rate, inflation rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the period 1986 to 2017. The study was carried out in Nigeria with respect to other countries doing business with Nigeria. The study also made use of secondary data for the period under consideration. Data obtained were subjected to the cointegration test, which results show that the F-statistic is greater than the lower and upper bound critical value at a five per cent (5%) significance level. Thus, the null hypothesis of no long-run relationship is rejected at a five per cent (5%) significance level. It can, therefore, be inferred that the variables are cointegrated holding the external debt profile as the independent variable. Furthermore, the Ordinary Least Square Linear Multiple Regression Analyses (OLSLMRA) revealed that foreign debt significantly affected adversely, the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), USD exchange rate and foreign direct investment; except for inflation rate. The study, therefore, concluded that foreign debts, though not the best option for countries striving to survive; still have a significant effect on Nigeria’s economy and indeed her living standard. The study recommends diversification of Nigeria’s economy outside the crude oil to include agriculture, solid minerals, manufacturing, trade and industry to improve on her gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, inflation rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) and thus better the living standard of her citizenry.
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Ramazanov, Dz I., and E. Yu Onopyuk. "Inflationary Processes in Russia Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic." Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, no. 4 (July 21, 2021): 52–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2021-4-52-60.
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The article examines inflationary processes in Russia and the impact of the coronavirus recession on them. The need for this study is due to the fact that the existing factors of inflation in modern conditions "overgrown" with new causes due to changes in the world economy. Using the methods of positive and normative analysis, tabular and graphical analysis, factors that have a particular impact on inflation are considered, taking into account the events taking place in the world economy. As a result, the study showed that the exchange rate, the situation on the food market and budget financing are the factors that had the most significant impact on inflation in Russia. The conclusion is made about the significant role of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the deployment of inflation, the contribution of agflation and price disparity to the consumer price index. The directions of struggle against price disparity and their use in anti-inflationary strategy are considered. The duality of the nature of public debt and inflation is revealed, a conclusion is made about the possibility of increasing public debt, and possible inflationary scenarios for the economy are given. Based on the results of the study, it is proposed to use an anti-inflationary strategy that would fully take into account inflation factors and adequate anti-inflationary policy instruments. The growth of public debt, according to the authors, will have a delayed inflationary effect; tightening of monetary policy is in conflict with the achievement of sustainable rates of economic growth. Anti-inflationary policy should be aimed at leveling external shocks while maintaining the guidelines for a stimulating monetary policy.
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Brezhnieva-Yermolenko, Olha, and Albina Kharitonenko. "ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY." ECONOMIC BULLETIN OF THE DNIPROVSK STATE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY 1, no. 2(3) (April 12, 2022): 46–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.31319/2709-2879.2021iss2(3).254827pp46-53.
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The article reviewed current trends in the field of external debt, which further exacerbate the problems in the political, economic, financial and monetary spheres of the economy. This is primarily due to the inefficient system of public debt management and leads to exceeding the threshold values of debt security. It was found that the amount of debt in the context of financial security of a country should first be studied in relation to GDP, what fully reflects the real economic situation in the country under the influence of inflation. The share of public debt in recent years has exceeded 60 % of GDP, which requires the government to take measures that would limit the possibility of borrowing in order to reduce public and state-guaranteed debt. Observations of the structure of Ukraine's public debt for the period 2011-2020 show the predominance of external debt and the gradual growth of its share. The peak of the level of public debt of Ukraine beyond the border falls on the period 2014-2017, but as of 2020 this figure was 60.8 %.Ukraine's public debt ratio is estimated in terms of currency structure, which shows that the major's share of debt in 2020 is denominated 46.22 % in US dollars. The threat to financial security for Ukraine remains high, as exchange rate volatility increases the repayment of principal and interest on debt.The analysis of public debt over the past 10 years shows the intensification of threats and risks to financial security by international financial institutions through external lending, as well as the high level of Ukraine's debt to external and domestic creditors. The study of indicators as indicators of financial security over the past 5 years shows the insufficient level of budget security of the country and the presence of internal and external threats to financial security of Ukraine.It is determined that the government's urgent task is to optimize the sources of public debt financing together with the development of clear and transparent rules of debt policy for the assessment of debt security indicators and financial risk management. The result of such changes is expected to reduce the amount of credit borrowing and a positive impact on the level of financial security of the state.
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Rangkuty, Dewi Mahrani, Bakhtiar Efendi, and Lia Nazliana Nasution. "Study of Indonesia's international macroeconomic indicators before and during the covid-19 pandemic." Jurnal Riset Pendidikan Ekonomi 6, no. 1 (April 17, 2021): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.21067/jrpe.v6i1.5352.
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This study aims to review Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators before and during the covid-19 pandemic. Using time-series data sourced from ceicdata, this study uses non-parametric statistical methods of different tests (sign tests). The results showed that there is a significant difference between before and during the covid-19 pandemic on international macroeconomic indicators of the rupiah exchange rate against USD, external debt, reserves, and Indonesian CPI. Recommended to the Government of Indonesia through Bank Indonesia and other relevant Ministries need a strict policy on a rupiah exchange rate that leads to price stability to reduce the rate of inflation, management and disclosure of external debt information, the achievement of trade balance surplus to increase reserves towards increasing domestic economic growth.
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Kia, Amir. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?" Journal of Asian Economics 17, no. 5 (November 2006): 879–903. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2006.08.011.
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Khusnatun, Laeli Lafi, and Dinar Melani Hutajulu. "ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA." Ekono Insentif 15, no. 2 (October 31, 2021): 79–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.36787/jei.v15i2.583.
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Abstrak
Cadangan devisa merupakan bagian penting dari perekonomian suatu negara. Besar kecilnya cadangan devisa dapat dipengaruhi oleh nilai ekspor. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu menganalisis pengaruh ekspor, inflasi, BI rate, dan Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) terhadap cadangan devisa, serta menganalisis hubungan kointegrasi antara ekspor, inflasi, BI rate, dan utang luar negeri terhadap cadangan devisa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dengan bentuk data time series. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM) menggunakan aplikasi Eviews10. Hasil penelitian ini menujukan bahwa yang mempengaruhi cadangan devisa adalah BI Rate dan ULN, serta keseimbangan jangka pendek mempengaruhi keseimbangan jangka panjang.
Abstract
Foreign exchange reserves are an important part of a country's economy. The size of foreign exchange reserves can be influenced by the value of exports. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exports, inflation, BI rate, and External Debt (ULN) on foreign exchange reserves, as well as analyze the cointegration relationship between exports, inflation, BI rate, and foreign debt on foreign exchange reserves. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series data. Analysis of the data used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) using the Eviews10 application. The results of this study indicate that those that affect foreign exchange reserves are the BI Rate and external debt, and the short-term balance affects the long-term balance.
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Alda Heriyatma, Elok Fitriani Rafikasari, and Moh Farih Fahmi. "THE EFFECT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, EXCHANGE RATES, INFLATION AND EXTERNAL DEBT ON INDONESIA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN 2017-2020 (STUDY FROM AN ISLAMIC PERSPECTIVE)." Qawãnïn Journal of Economic Syaria Law 6, no. 2 (December 29, 2022): 177–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.30762/qaw.v6i2.156.
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Indonesia is a country that cannot be separated from international relations. In addition, it also has a major influence in the event iof fluctuations in the world economy caused by adopting an open economic system. By conducting international relations, of course, it can increase foreign exchange reserves which of course provide benefits for the country. Indonesia itself has little foreign exchange reserves available because it is used to pay off the government's foreign debt and high import costs. If a country makes foreign loans continuously, the amount of foreign exchange reserves will decrease, so that the economy becomes sluggish. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of gross domestic product, exports, imports, exchange rates, inflation and foreign debt on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The sample in this study is 48 data from 2017-2020. This research method is a quantitative approach with data analysis using classical assumption test, multiple linear regression analysis, hypothesis testing and coefficient of determination test with data processing test equipment, namely SPSS version 16. The results show that partially (1) gross domestic product has a positive and positive effect. significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, (2) exports have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, (3) imports have a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, (4) the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, (5) inflation does not have a significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, (6) foreign debt has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, (7) simultaneously gross domestic product, exports, imports, exchange rates, inflation and foreign debt have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves
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Toumache, Rachid, and Khaled Rouaski. "Prospective Analysis Of The Algerian Economic Growth By 2025: Structural Analysis." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 32, no. 3 (May 2, 2016): 791–804. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v32i3.9657.
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The aim of this study is to assess the economic growth in Algeria and to determine the set of variable impacting it on different periods. It relies on structural analysis approach based on an investigation method using the software MICMAC (matrix of cross-influence, applied multiplication to a ranking) which was developed by the Institute of Computing Innovation 3IE following the request of Investigation Laboratory on Prospective, Strategy and Organization LIPSOR. The structural analysis can define the key variables of the system (VCS) to catch the most influential variables on economic growth during three time intervals: the near past (direct impact), the actual period (indirect influence) and the long run (potential indirect impact) bearing in mind that the horizon of our study is 2025. The results show the most influential variables ranked during each period as follows: The near past (the direct influence): the economic system, public spending, the regulation, foreign reserves and price of oil barrel, unemployment, inflation and SMEs. The actual period (the indirect influence): the economic system, business climate, FDI, the price of the oil barrel, active population, occupied population, external debt. In addition to other variables having a less influence: unemployment, SMEs, inflation and foreign trade. The long run (potential indirect influence) by 2025: The economic system, public spending, the regulation, foreign reserves, unemployment, FDI, inflation, business climate, currency, occupied population, the price of the oil barrel, saving. Other variables have a moderate influence: national security, capital, exchange rate, financial system, active population, IT, informal sector, SMEs, external trade, external debt, demographic growth and the interest rate.