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Jones, S. "Future demand for selected industrial commodities." Thesis, Swansea University, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.637464.
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Analyses have been made of the future patterns of demand for three distinctly different products, namely, gallium arsenide (GaAs) semiconductor materials, magnetic recording media and cement. These products differ widely in terms of the world tonnage production levels, the cost/kilogram and the time scale over which these products have been used commercially. As a result, entirely different forecasting procedures must be adopted to estimate future demand. Thus, extensive historical data is available on production, consumption and trade in cement so that 'intensity of use' methods can be used to predict demand to the year 2000. In contrast, since detailed commercial data does not exist for new products such as magnetic recording media and GaAs semiconductors, it is necessary to employ Delphi procedures based on expert opinion in these fields and, since the expected errors are larger than those with established statistical techniques, the forward projection must be limited to the mid 1990's. The following conclusions could be drawn from the analysis: (a) Current consumption will grow from 878 million tonnes in 1981 to 1.5 billion by the end of the century, due largely to increased demand in developing countries. This represents an increase in product value to 34 billion by the year 2000. (b) The market for magnetic recording media is estimated to increase from 5 billion in 1981 to over 16 billion by 1992. (c) An even more marked growth in GaAs activity is forecast, with a projected increase from 200 million to over 4 billion in the period from 1981 to 1992.
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Teka, Zeferino. "Industrial linkages in the commodities sector : the case of the Angolan oil and gas industry." Thesis, Open University, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.545677.
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Karlsson, Alexander, and Martin Hedengren. "Hur tillverkande företag med distributörer kan förbättra sin marknadsföring av standardiserade produkter : En fallstudie inom ABB Low Voltage Products." Thesis, KTH, Industriell marknadsföring, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-169406.
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Marknaden för industriella distributörer har upplevt stora förändringar under de senaste decennierna. Trots att industribolag nu har större möjligheter att sälja direkt via internet har distributörerna generellt sett stärkt sin position av flera anledningar. Forskningen har emellertid förespråkat att det är starka samarbeten som skapar värde i distributionskanalen. I huvudsak har detta påvisats med kvantitativa studier och forskare har därför efterfrågat kvalitativa ansatser. Delvis med målet att fylla detta forskningsgap utfördes en fallstudie om ABB Low Voltage Products distributörsförsäljning av produktkategori Pilot Devices, som bland annat innefattar tryckknappar. Pilot Devices valdes eftersom de är typiska distributörsprodukter i flera avseenden. Vad som också är uppenbart för produktkategorin är att den är högst standardiserad, utan tydlig differentiering mot konkurrenterna. Med bakgrund av detta intogs ett speciellt perspektiv i studien: hur kan marknadsföringen genom distributörer förbättras för en standardiserad produktkategori? Elva semistrukturerade intervjuer utfördes med distributörer i Sverige och Storbritannien samt därtill 25 observationsstudier i butiker. För att bättre förstå kundernas behov skedde fem intervjuer med panelbyggare, den typiske kunden för produkterna. Det empiriska materialet visade att distributörers behov skiljer sig åt markant, vilket tidigare modeller inte beaktat. Leverantörer måste förstå de olika distributörstypernas behov för att styra kanalen effektivt. För stora distributörskedjor är monetära incitament, ett åtagande att jobba på slutmarknaden och produktdata för internetförsäljning i fokus. För mindre distributörer, som ofta måste konkurrera med teknisk expertis, är bland annat produktträning och en nära relation av yttersta vikt. Studien bekräftade tidigare forskning som påpekat att en tydlig ansvarsfördelning och effektiv kommunikation är väsentligt för samarbetena. Detta visade sig vara viktigt oavsett typ av distributör. Studien av panelbyggarna visade att dessa generellt hade ett högst repetitivt köpbeteende som ofta styrs av tidigare ritningar eller krav från kunder. Distributörssegmentens värdeskapande aktiviteter och behov samt slutkundernas inverkan summerades i ett ramverk vilket uppfyllde studiens syfte: en vägledning för hur tillverkande industriföretag kan förbättra marknadsföringen via distributörer för standardiserade produkter.The industrial distributor market has experienced great changes during the recent decades. Manufacturers today have better possibilities reaching their customers directly by selling through the Internet, but the distributors have in general strengthened their positions, due to several reasons. Most research concerning the manufacturer-distributor relationship has, however, indicated that collaboration is the key to creating value in the marketing channel. The majority of these studies have been quantitative, and researchers have requested more qualitative studies. Partly with the aim to fill this gap, a case study was conducted to investigate the distributor sales of ABB Low Voltage Products product category Pilot Devices, consisting of for example push buttons. Pilot Devices was chosen as it is a typical distributor product for many reasons. What also is evident is that it is a commoditized product, where it is hard to find differences between brands. With this background, the study was conducted through a certain lens: how can the marketing through distributors be improved for commoditized products? Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted with distributors in Sweden and the United Kingdom together with 25 observational studies in distributor stores. In order to obtain a deep understanding of the end customer’s need, five interviews with panel builders, a typical customer type, was conducted. The empirical data showed that the distributors’ needs differ significantly, which has been neglect by previous studies. Manufacturers must develop an understanding for these needs in order to manage the channel effectively. For large distributors, monetary incentives, an end-market commitment and product data were priorities. For smaller, technical oriented, distributors, product training and marketing material were distinct needs. The study confirmed previous studies stating that clear allocation of responsibilities and effective communication are important. The study of the panel builders showed that they have a highly repetitive buying behavior, often affected by previous blueprints or by their customer’s requirements. The distributor segments’ value adding activities, their needs and the impact of the end customer were incorporated into a framework that fulfilled the study’s purpose: a guideline how manufacturing companies can improve their marketing through distributors for commoditized products.
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Zhang, Yuanyuan. "Forecasting of daily dynamic hedge ratio in agricultural and commodities' futures markets : evidence from Garch models." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2012. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/341449/.
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This thesis investigates the predictive power of six bivariate GARCH-CCC (constant conditional correlation) models; the GARCH (1, 1), BEKK GARCH (1, 1), GARCH-X (1, 1), BEKK-X (1, 1), GARCH-GJR (1, 1) and QGARCH (1, 1) based on both normal and student’s t distributions. Empirical investigations are conducted by forecasting the daily hedge ratios from agricultural futures markets using one-step-ahead over 1 year and 2 year out-of-sample period. The forecasting of OHR in agricultural and commodities’ futures markets has not been studied thoroughly and few publications are available in literature. My work enriches the literature and will hopefully provide guidance for hedging in these markets. To forecast the OHR, we apply data from three storable commodities, coffee, wheat and soybean and two non-storable commodities, live cattle and live hog. Four tests are conducted to evaluate the forecasting errors of out-of-sample forecasted return of the portfolio based on the forecasted OHR. Our study shows that the asymmetric GARCH model outperforms other models, and the standard GARCH is the weakest for 1-year forecast. However, the standard GARCH model performs well for 2-year forecast of live cattle with student’s t distributed residuals. More generally, the BEKK and asymmetric GJR and QGARCH models are recommended to forecast OHR on both 1-year and 2-year horizons with normal and student’s t distributions for storable products and the asymmetric models for non-storable commodities. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that the predictive power of GARCH models depends on the distribution of residuals, the commodity and also the length of the forecast horizons. This result is consistent with the those from Poon and Granger (2003) and Chen et.al (2003). Given accurately forecasted OHR, investors can determine appropriate hedging strategies for portfolio management to reduce or transfer risks, and prepare for the capital needed for hedging.
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Boshoff, Oliza. "The hidden costs of automotive commodities procured from the People’s Republic of China." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/16034.
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Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Globalization has shifted to a level where market competition is tougher. Therefore, multinational companies focus on cutting cost along the company’s supply chain with heavy scrutiny on procurement. Developing countries have become very attractive from which to strategically procure commodities because of low cost labour, especially from the People’s Republic of China. The business complexity, ethics and current market situation in China are often too modestly emphasized. Yet, these elements have a significant impact on the sourcing decision because it indirectly influences the total landed cost of a commodity but is not taken into account. Therefore, the total landed cost on which sourcing decisions are made, does not reflect the actual total landed cost of a commodity. In many cases multinational companies sourcing from China do not realise the impact of the hidden cost involved and do not reach the expected cost savings as calculated. The purpose of this study is to explore why more attention must be paid to hidden cost when automotive commodities are procured from China. This, as well as the research methodology used in order to obtain the data, is explained in chapter one. Chapter two of this thesis illustrates the change in a company’s supply chain and discusses this in a global sourcing context. The sourcing commodity, which is the point of focus in this study, is automotive commodities sourced from China and is discussed in chapter three. Based on China’s increased presence in global sourcing of automotive commodities, chapter four focuses on China’s integration into the global supply chain. The influential factors that have an impact (hidden cost) on the actual landed cost of commodities sourced from China are described in chapter five and identified as guanxi, indirect business logistic obstacles, quality of goods and supply, management, the labour market and training, and Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). In chapter six the influential factors, as described in chapter five, are analysed through a case study of Daimler Chrysler China Limited. Chapter seven is a comparative study of Japan’s miracle economy from 1960-1980 and the current economic trends in China to determine whether it will be feasible to procure automotive commodities from China in the future with regards to the economic indicators.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Globalisering het verskuif na ʼn vlak waar mark kompetisie meer gekonsentreerd is. Daarom fokus multinasionale maatskappye ernstig daarop om kostes langs die aanvoerketting van die maatskappy te verminder deur te konsentreer op die aanskaffingsproses. Ontwikkelende lande het uiters aanloklik geword as bestemming in die strategiese aanskaffingsproses van goedere weens lae arbeidskoste, veral vanaf Sjina. Tans word die besigheidskompleksiteit, etiek en die markkondisie in Sjina meestal onderbeklemtoon. Daarenteen het die faktore ‘n gewigtige impak op die aanskaffingsbesluit omdat dit die totale koste by aankoms indirek beïnvloed. Gevolglik reflekteer die totale koste by aankoms, waarop aanskaffigsbesluite gegrond word, nie die werklike koste van aankoms van goedere nie. In menige gevalle behaal multinasionale maatskappye nie die verwagte kostebesparing soos bereken vir goedere wat vanaf Sjina aangeskaf word nie omdat die multinasionale maatskappye onbewus is van die impak wat die versteekte koste op die totale koste by aankoms het. Die doel van hierdie studie is ‘n ondersoek na die redes waarom daar meer beklemtoning moet wees op versteekte koste wanneer goedere uit Sjina aangeskaf word. Dit, sowel as die navorsingmetodes wat gebruik is om die inligting vir die studie in te win en akkuraat deur te gee, word verduidelik in hoofstuk een. Hoofstuk twee bespreek die verandering in 'n maatskappy se aanvoerketting in ʼn globale aanskaffingskonteks. Hoofstuk drie fokus op redes vir Sjina se toenemende verteenwoordige rol in die globale aanskaffing van goedere en op die aanskaffing van motorvoertuigparte uit Sjina. Met betrekking tot die globale aanskaffing van goedere word die integrasie van Sjina in die globale aanskaffingsketting in hoofstuk vier bespreek. Die beïnvloedende faktore wat 'n impak (versteekte koste) op die werklike koste by aankoms van die motorvoertuigparte wat aangeskaf word vanaf Sjina het, word bespreek in hoofstuk vyf en geïdentifiseer as guanxi, indirekte besigheidslogistiek hindernisse, die kwaliteit van goedere en die aanskaffing daarvan, bestuur in Sjina, die Sjinese arbeidsmark en opleiding in die werksplek, en intellektuele eiendomsreg. In hoofstuk ses word die beïnvloedende faktore (soos bespreek in hoofstuk vyf) geanaliseer deur ʼn gevalle studie van Daimler Chrysler Sjina Beperk. Hoofstuk sewe is ʼn vergelykende studie tussen Japan se wonder ekonomie van 1960-1980 en die huidige ekonomiese tendens in Sjina om te bepaal hetsy dit moontlik sal wees om motorvoertuigparte aan te skaf vanaf Sjina in die toekoms met betrekking tot die ekonomiese indikatore.
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Pimpão, Marco André Viana Diniz. "Risk management in commodities supply chains: from conceptual complexity to managerial practice." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/15460.
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Doutoramento em Engenharia e Gestão IndustrialOver the past couple of decades, a long list of events has brought supply chain risk to the main stage of supply chain management literature, both academic and professional. More importantly, supply chain risk is now a daily concern for supply chain managers who see their global supply chains exposed to an endless list of potential causes for disturbances. Although the literature on supply chain risk management has increased enormously in past few years, there are only a handful of researchers who have addressed the topic in the context of commodities supply chains. Furthermore, most of the research that does address risk in commodities supply chains does so by focusing on commodities price risk. This thesis addresses commodities supply risk management with a view to establishing whether commodity price risk is the indeed the most relevant risk, as the attention it receives seems to suggest. It does so by using the example of steel supply chains and trying to establish which risks are the most relevant from the point of view of companies that are considered major steel buyers. With that purpose in mind, interviews have been carried out in two groups of companies - a multi-sector group and group of companies that are major steel buyers – to ascertain which supply risks are the most relevant for those companies and how they deal with those risks. Using those two groups a comparative analysis is carried out. Having carried out an extensive literature review and benefiting from the insights provided by the interviews, this research suggests that the complexity of the concepts involved, some confusion created by the different risk classifications in the literature and the lack of knowledge in important issues with an impact on risk are detrimental to the practical usefulness of theory, from a managerial point of view. With that concern in mind, this thesis suggests a framework for systematic supply risk management that incorporates a different approach to supply risk identification as its first step. This framework aims at being a practical tool to assist supply chain managers in their decision-making process.
Ao longo do último par de décadas, uma longa lista de acontecimentos trouxe o risco na cadeia de abastecimento para o palco principal da literatura relativa à gestão da cadeia de abastecimento, tanto de natureza académica como profissional. Mais importante, o risco na cadeia de abastecimento é agora uma preocupação diária para gestores de cadeia de abastecimento que veem as suas cadeias de abastecimento globais exposta a uma infindável lista de potenciais causas de perturbação. Apesar de a literatura relativa à gestão do risco na cadeia de abastecimento ter aumentado consideravelmente nos últimos anos, apenas um pequeno número de investigadores abordou este tópico no contexto das cadeias de abastecimento de commodities. Acresce que, a maior parte da literatura que aborda o tópico fá-lo focando o risco de variação do preço das commodities. A presente tese aborda a gestão do risco de abastecimento de commodities com vista a apurar se o risco de variação do preço é, de facto, o risco mais relevante, tal como a atenção que lhe é dada parece sugerir. Fá-lo usando o exemplo das cadeias de abastecimento de aço e tentando apurar quais os riscos mais relevantes, do ponto de vista de empresas consideradas grandes compradoras de aço. Tendo em vista este propósito, foram levadas a cabo entrevistas em dois grupos de empresas – um grupo englobando vários sectores e um grupo de empresas grandes compradoras de aço – para apurar quais os riscos mais relevantes que afectam a cadeia de abastecimento para aquelas empresas e como estas lidam com eles. É efectuada uma análise comparativa com base naqueles dois grupos de empresas. Tendo sido levada a cabo uma extensa revisão da literatura e beneficiando das informação recolhida com as entrevistas, esta tese sugere que a complexidade dos conceitos envolvidos na gestão do risco na cadeia de abastecimento, alguma confusão criada pelas inúmeras classificações na literatura e a falta de conhecimento relativamente a alguns aspectos com impacto no risco prejudicam a utilidade da teoria na prática, do ponto de vista dos gestores. Tendo em conta esta preocupação, a presente tese sugere um quadro para uma gestão do risco de abastecimento sistemática, incorporando uma abordagem diferente à identificação do risco como seu primeiro passo. Pretende-se que esta seja uma ferramenta prática que possa assistir os gestores de cadeia de abastecimento no seu processo de decisão.
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Persilva, Fernandes Barbara. "The Commodity and Industrial Sector in the Brazilian Economy." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1429634018.
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Souza, Paulo Roberto de. "O serviço ao cliente e a estratégia competitiva da empresa: uma abordagem para o mercado de commodities." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/5493.
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Previous issue date: 1997-09-29T00:00:00ZAnalisa o serviço ao cliente como instrumento na elaboração da estratégia das empresas, nos diversos setores e, particularmente, no de commodities e no segmento business-to-business. Discute a estruturação e a administração da 'supply chain' como condição necessária para obter-se um nível de serviço que seja fator de diferenciação e vantagem competitiva. Apresenta os desenvolvimentos recentes no relacionamento fornecedor-cliente, no mercado da commodity açúcar.
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Vicente, Jackeline Bertuolo Barron Guerra. "Petrobras, pré-sal e a (des)industrialização." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2015. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9248.
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Previous issue date: 2015-03-12This work aims at analysing the impacts associated with oil extraction from the Brazilian pre-salt layers, particularly those concerning the balance of trade, the Dutch disease and the deindustrialization process. We present data indicating that Brazil is facing a deindustrialization process due, to a great extent, to the effects of the Dutch disease, which is evident from the reduction of the manufacturing sector s contribution to GDP and from the increasing importance of primary goods exports in the export basket. We consider the potential for wealth creation, the negative impacts associated with oil extraction from pre-salt layers and suggest some alternatives to minimize such impacts. Hence, in order to avoid further aggravation of foreign exchange and deindustrialization problems due to pre-salt oil exports, we present a number of suggested measures, with an emphasis on consistent industrial policies, capable of stimulating various segments, thus reverting the deindustrialization process and directing pre-salt revenues towards the country s social and economic development. Petrobras, the state-owned oil sector company, has played and still plays a strategic role in pre-salt oil discovery and extraction. Moreover, it can be used to foster investments as a way of stimulating the development of its corresponding chain of goods and services
O trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os impactos da exploração do petróleo das camadas do pré-sal brasileiro, especialmente no que se refere à balança comercial, à doença holandesa e ao processo de desindustrialização. São apresentados dados que indicam que o Brasil enfrenta um processo de desindustrialização, em boa parte causado pelos efeitos da doença holandesa, verificado pela redução da participação da indústria manufatureira na composição do PIB e pela reprimarização da pauta de exportação. Avalia-se a potencial riqueza a ser gerada, os impactos negativos da exploração do pré-sal e sugere-se algumas alternativas para reduzir tais impactos. Assim, para evitar que os problemas cambiais e também da desindustrialização se agravem devido ao resultado das exportações do petróleo do pré-sal, são apresentadas algumas discussões para a utilização dos recursos, com ênfase para a instituição de uma política industrial consistente, capaz de estimular vários segmentos, que reverta o processo de desindustrialização e destine as rendas do pré-sal para o desenvolvimento social e econômico do país. A Petrobras, estatal do setor de petróleo, teve e tem um papel estratégico na descoberta e produção do petróleo do pré-sal. Ademais, pode ser utilizada como indutora dos investimentos de modo a estimular o desenvolvimento de toda a cadeia de bens e serviços a ela associada
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Pimentel, José Wilson Rocha. "Internet como canal de serviços ao cliente em marketing industrial: esta opção esta sendo considerada uma vantagem competitiva em mercados comoditizados?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/5487.
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Previous issue date: 2000-09-21T00:00:00ZMostra os usos da Internet como canal de serviços ao cliente. Aborda o papel dos serviços ao cliente como estratégia de marketing em um empresa que vende farinhas de trigo e outros produtos comoditizados. Aponta oportunidades para utilização de serviços ao cliente para diferenciação e obtenção de vantagem competitiva.
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Benedetto, Paola. "Intensidade tecnológica da pauta de exportação brasileira entre 2000 e 2012." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2014. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/4521.
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O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o nível tecnológico da pauta de exportação brasileira, e sua evolução, para seus principais parceiros comerciais: BRICS, MERCOSUL, Estados Unidos e União Europeia, entre 2000 e 2012. Além disso, identifica-se o grau de competitividade das exportações através da análise do IVCR e do IEE. Para tanto, são considerados os 20 produtos mais exportados pelo Brasil para cada destino mencionado, agregados até o 4° dígito da NCM, classificados por intensidade tecnológica, segundo a taxonomia de Pavitt, adaptada por Holland e Xavier (2004). Através destas análises se percebe que o Brasil está passando por um processo de reprimarização de sua pauta exportadora, pois as exportações dos produtos primários cresceram acima da média nos últimos anos para todos os destinos analisados. A exceção a esta análise é o MERCOSUL. Porém, destaca-se que o processo de reprimarização não é, necessariamente, negativo para a economia brasileira. No entanto, é necessário tomar medidas para que o mesmo não venha a se tornar prejudicial a longo prazo, reduzindo a competitividade da indústria nacional.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the technological level of brazilian exports, and its evolution, to its major trading partners: BRICS, MERCOSUR, United States and European Union, between 2000 and 2012. Furthermore, it seeks the identification of the competitiveness level of brazilian exports through the analysisofRCA and IES.For that, are considered the 20 most exported products, by Brazil, for each destination mentioned, aggregateduntil the 4th digit of the NCM,classified by technological intensity, according to Pavitt’s taxonomy and adapted by Holland and Xavier (2004).Through these analyzes we realize that Brazil is going through a reprimarization process of its exports, because theexports of primary products have grown above average for all analyzed destinations in the recent years. The exception to these analyses is the MERCOSUR. But, it is important to emphasize that the process of reprimarization is not, necessarily, negative for Brazil’s economy. However, it’s necessary to take some precautions, so it won’t become negative in long term, reducing the competitiveness of domestic industry.
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Jara, Lobo Ximena Constanza. "RSI. Responsabilidad social en industrias de commodities: una visión sistémica y metodológica. Caso industria del salmón." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2015. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/133884.
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Ingeniera Civil IndustrialEn el presente trabajo el objetivo general es definir el concepto de Responsabilidad Social Industrial (RSI) y revisar los indicadores de sustentabilidad en base a este concepto de la industria salmonera chilena. Se establecen conceptos claves como los de desarrollo sustentable, commodities, indicadores y la cohesión económica, social y territorial. Bibliográficamente se consideran los aportes de Mark Moore, Jim Collins, Michael Porter, Jan de Vries, Johan Gray, François Vallaeys, entre otros. A su vez, la referencia de los acuerdos en materia de sustentabilidad es la guía ISO 26000 de responsabilidad social. La línea base de indicadores en la industria salmonera se realiza con los reportes públicos de las empresas productoras asociadas a SalmonChile. La RSI se define como una nueva mirada de la práctica industrial, escalando sobre la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE), y en donde el grupo de empresas, conscientes de su impacto, comienzan a preocuparse no sólo de la perspectiva económica propiamente tal, sino que también de lo sostenible que ésta sea; se busca el esfuerzo y la acción conjunta de la industria. Se comienza a abrir la mirada hacia el entorno ambiental y social que se ha perturbado hasta ahora y que ya comienza a negar el permiso para operar. El clúster no sólo incluye a la industria, el gobierno y la academia, ahora también a la comunidad y la perspectiva ambiental, surgiendo la idea de la corresponsabilidad en una dimensión sistémica. De las empresas productoras asociadas a SalmonChile un 64,7% se manifiesta en cuanto a RSE, mientras que sólo un 29,4% muestra indicadores en memorias de sustentabilidad referidos a los ámbitos de la guía ISO 26000. Esta memoria aporta un concepto nuevo, un enfoque industrial para la responsabilidad social. Con un marco teórico atingente y amplio se hace cargo de la nueva forma en que se está viendo el mundo de los negocios y la Humanidad en general. Al ser un tema con muchos aspectos sociales se vuelve complejo encontrar fórmulas y mucho menos verdades. Se entrega una propuesta, una visión que no está ajena a las subjetividades, limitaciones y sesgos de su autora. La industria salmonera chilena requiere mejorar las regulaciones al crecimiento para asegurar la sustentabilidad. Si bien ha comenzado a articular su clúster y a responder a las nuevas demandas, actualmente tiene reportes de sustentabilidad precarios, sin indicadores normalizados ni estandarizados, pues éstos, de existir, sólo consideran la acción individual de las empresas. Es preciso homogeneizarlos para lograr generar en un mediano a largo plazo indicadores para la industria completa; esfuerzo que hoy en día se está gestando, pues la industria está generando los indicadores deseables en base a la experiencia y conocimiento multidisciplinario. La forma de enfrentar el estudio de indicadores de la línea base en esta memoria es replicable a otras industrias de commodities del país, pues la estructura general de tomar y analizar los antecedentes sería la misma.
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Tong, Yee Siong. "Agro-commodity global value chains and upgrading : the case of Malaysian palm oil." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279016.
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This dissertation consists of three closely related essays on upgrading in agro-commodity value chains, which is an important issue for many developing countries that produce and export commodities in mostly unprocessed form. The essays are based on fieldwork in Malaysia and focus on its palm oil, which is the world’s largest oils and fats product by production and export volumes. The first essay examines the suitability of vertical specialisation for participation and upgrading in agro-commodity value chains based on the case of Malaysian palm oil. It uses data from interviews, site visits, and industry and economic statistics to analyse upgrading at the sector and firm levels. The essay suggests that upgrading is prone to sectoral linkage development and vertical integration at local lead firms. The development is driven by production characteristics, sectoral dynamics, eco-historical settings that are unique to agro-commodity value chains, as well as firm motives seeking resources, markets, efficiency gains, and strategic assets. The second essay studies Malaysia’s industrial policy for its palm oil sector through three distinct stages of development. The findings show that resource-based industrialisation (RBI) requires selective state intervention targeting macroeconomic conditions, infrastructure, business climate, and human capital. The Malaysian experience also highlights the importance of local firms in driving RBI investments, contrary to the emphasis in the literature which either overplays the importance of foreign linkages or dismisses nationality of firms as a non-factor for industrialisation. The third essay investigates economic and social outcomes from upgrading in the Malaysian palm oil sector using gross value added data. It shows that economic upgrading can but does not automatically lead to social upgrading. The essay finds that economic upgrading in value chains improves income of groups of individuals at different rates depending on their position in the value chains. Skills and productivity performance provide only partial explanation for the uneven social outcomes; the differences in institutional arrangements and political representation accorded to the groups are likely to be important factors as well.
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Tavares, Maria Flávia de Figueiredo. "O mercado futuro de suco de laranja concentrado e congelado : um enfoque analítico." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/8769.
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O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar porque as indústrias processadoras de suco concentrado e congelado de laranja não estão negociando na New York Board of Trade, considerando que o risco de preços é alto neste setor, e preferindo utilizar o preço de Rotterdam como base para as suas negociações. Os mercados derivativos de commodities agrícolas são utilizados na administração do risco de preços e a maioria dos contratos negociados em Bolsas de Commodities no mundo inteiro tem tido sucesso, mas no caso do suco de laranja concentrado e congelado, negociado na NYBOT, o volume de negociação de contratos é baixo em comparação com outras commodities. Mas, os custos de transação relacionados ao mercado futuro de SLCC aliados com a concentração das empresas brasileiras processadoras de suco concentrado de laranja, acabaram induzindo um modo alternativo de governança neste setor: o mercado a termo. As empresas processadoras estão administrando o risco de preços e a governança do mercado vem sendo feita por meio dos contratos a termo onde ocorre a entrega física do produto, sendo que nas negociações entre as empresas brasileiras e os seus clientes não é utilizado o preço futuro e sim o seu próprio preço, negociado em contratos individuais, desse modo o preço é pré-estabelecido, assim como a qualidade e a quantidade do suco e o local de entrega. O mercado a termo pode ser considerado uma forma híbrida de contrato onde ocorre a dependência bilateral dos agentes econômicos, e está sendo utilizada para reduzir os riscos envolvidos nesta transação entre empresas processadoras de suco concentrado e seus clientes na Europa.The objective of the present study was to analyze why the frozen concentrated orange juice industries are not trading in the New York Board of Trade, considering that the price risk is high in this sector, and prefer to use the price of Rotterdam as a basis for negotiation. The derivative markets for agricultural commodities are used in the administration of the price risk and the majority of the contracts negotiated in Stock Markets of Commodities in the entire world has had success, but in the case of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice, negotiated in the NYBOT, the volume of contract negotiation is low comparing to others. But the costs of transaction related to the futures market of FCOJ along with the concentration of the Brazilian industry that produces FCOJ, had induced an alternative way of governance in this sector: the forward market. The FCOJ industries are managing the price risk, and market governance is made through forward contracts, where the physical delivery of the product happens. In the negotiations between the Brazilian companies and customers the future price is not used but the price negotiated in individual contracts. In this way the price is pre-established, as well as the quality and the quantity of juice and the place of delivery. The forward market can be considered a hybrid contract form where the bilateral dependence of the economic agents occurs, and is being used in order to reduce the risks that are involved in this transaction between FCOJ producers and their customers in Europe.
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Soury, Manel. "La dépendance entre le marché financier et le marché de matières premières : une approche copule." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018AIXM0157.
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Cette thèse de doctorat est composée de trois chapitres, un article et deux papiers et est principalement liée au domaine de l’économétrie financière empirique. Elle analyse la dépendance et le lien entre les marchés financiers et les marchés de matières premières, en particulier celui de l’énergie. Les distributions et corrélations des variables appartenant aux deux marchés sont étudiées afin de déterminer leurs effets les uns sur les autres et d’analyser leurs tendances pour donner un meilleur aperçu de leurs comportements vis-à-vis des crises et des événements brusques en économie. Ces variables sont représentées par certains indices financiers (SP500, Euro stoxx 50, Msci China) ainsi que par les principaux indices de matières premières (SP GSCI, Brent Oil,Gaz naturel, Metaux precieux). Nous choisissons de modéliser leur corrélation dans le temps et de prendre en compte la non-linéarité et l’instabilité qui peuvent les affecter. Pour cela, l’approche fonction copule a été employée pour modéliser d’une manière efficace leurs distributions. Dans le premier chapitre, nous examinons la dépendance et les co-mouvements entre les prix des émissions de dioxyde de carbone et les indices énergétiques comme le charbon, le gaz naturel, le Brent oil et l’indice énergétique global. Le deuxième chapitre analyse les interactions et relations entre le marché pétrolier et deux principaux marchés financiers en Europe et aux États-Unis représentés par l’Euro stoxx 50 et le SP500. Dans le dernier chapitre, on analyse la dépendance multivariée entre les indices de matière première de différents secteurs avec des indices financiers en utilisant le modèle de la copule Regular VineThis Ph.D. thesis is composed by three chapters and is mainly related to theempirical financial econometrics field. It analysis the dependence and correlationbetween the financial markets and the commodity markets specially energy.Variables from both markets are studied to determine their effects on each othersand to analyse their trends to giva a better insight to their co-movements.These variables are represented by some of the major equities (SP500, Eurostoxx 50, Msci China) as well as major commodities indices (SP GSCI commodity,Brent Oil, Natural Gas, Precious metals). We choose to model theircorrelation dynamically and take into account any non-linearity and stylisedfacts into the nature of their dependencies. For that, the copula approach wasused to model efficiently the correlated joint distributions of the studied variables.In the first paper, we examine the dependence and co-movements between theprices of the carbon dioxide emissions and energy commodities (coal, naturalgas, Brent oil and SP GSCI energy index). The dependence between thereturns was modeled by a particular class of dynamic copula, the StochasticAutoregressive Copula (SCAR). The second chapter analysis the interactions and co-movements between the oilmarket and two major stock markets in Europe and the US (the Euro stoxx 50and the SP500). Both the dynamic and the markov (regime switching) copulawere chosen to better understand the link between the two. In The last paper, I study the multivariate dependence between commoditiesfrom different sectors with some major equities using the Regular Vine copula model
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Moreira, Manoel I'smelon Almeida. "A orientação à mercado como base para a geração de valor para clientes e acionistas: um estudo de caso no mercado de açúcares industriais no brasil." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2362.
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Previous issue date: 2008-10-23T00:00:00ZAnalisa a orientação à mercado como alternativa para a geração de valor para acionistas e clientes, articularmente no setor de commodities e no segmento business-to-business. Avalia o processo de geração de valor dos produtos e serviços, realiza e utiliza os resultados de um estudo de segmentação dos clientes para suportar as estratégias de diferenciação da empresa.
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Sánchez, Bravo Cristián Marcelo. "Acciones de empresas mineras en el ciclo de precios de commodities." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2011. http://www.repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/102599.
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Mashamaite, Makwena Phistos. "Price asymmetry in South African futures markets for agricultural commodities." Thesis, University of Limpopo (Turfloop Campus), 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10386/942.
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Thesis (M.Sc. ( Agricultural Economics )) --University of Limpopo, 2005The deregulation of agricultural markets in South Africa led to the establishment of a futures market for agricultural products, which was opened in January 1995. The marketing of Agricultural products act No. 47 of 1996 was passed at the end of 1996. The new Marketing of Agricultural Products Act (Act No. 47 of 1996) in South Africa has created an environment in which farmers, traders and processors are able to react positively to transparent prices that are market related. Agricultural futures markets serve several important functions, such as price risk management, price discovery and forward pricing. Economists around the world have studied vertical and spatial price relationships, and the behaviour of price changes in futures markets using asymmetry tests. Price asymmetry results in futures markets have a number of important implications. Firstly, traditional models in time series may be slightly biased when forecasting future prices, because they assume price symmetry. Secondly, asymmetry results may imply that the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis appears to be contradicted, thus indicating that past prices do affect current prices and do contain information. Lastly, if persistent asymmetry is found in futures markets, market regulators and policy makers may wish to use asymmetric information to improve the functioning and stability of futures markets through improved price limit and margin policies. Implementing policies iv accounting for asymmetric behaviour may help avoid market crashes and sudden unexpected price adjustments adversely affecting market participants. This study tests the existence of price asymmetry in South African futures markets for white and yellow maize, wheat and sunflower seeds using a dynamic price asymmetry model. The sum of coefficients test and the speed of adjustment test are used to determine whether or not prices move up in the same fashion as they move down, over daily and weekly data frequencies. Out of the four commodity futures markets studied over varying data frequencies, only daily wheat is price asymmetric. Wheat daily prices respond faster to price decreases than to price increases. The implication of the results is that past prices do affect current prices and contain information. Hence, the weak-form efficient market hypothesis appears to be contradicted for wheat futures market. Another important implication of the results is that implementing policies accounting for asymmetric behavior through price limit and margin policies will improve the functioning and stability of wheat futures market in South Africa.
National Research Foundation, and the University of Limpopo
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Fosca, Gamarra Almudena. "Predicción de precios de commoditties empleando data analytics y machine learning." Bachelor's thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12404/17338.
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Esta investigación explorará las aplicaciones de herramientas de Machine Learning en el campo
financiero. Se incluyen trabajos previos para el pronóstico de acciones, índices bursátiles y
commodities, pudiendo comparar y contrastar los resultados obtenidos al aplicar diversos algoritmos.
De esta forma, se emplean los estudios previos presentados como base para la elaboración de una tesis
de bachillerato que tiene como objetivo pronosticar el precio del cobre empleando modelos de Machine
Learning.Trabajo de investigación
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Cárdenas, Ibáñez Fabián Andrés. "Un modelo basado en agentes para explicar tendencias de largo plazo en precios de commodities." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2017. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/144659.
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Ingeniero Civil de MinasHistorically commodity prices have shown a tendency to move cyclically. However, these trends have only been identified a posteriori and have not been considered to try to obtain future trends, with the hypothesis that future prices are unpredictable. During the first years of this century, metals of industrial use went through a phase of sustained increase in their prices, reaching prices levels unprecedented in recent history. This boom generated significant changes both in the global mining industry and in the economies of the main exporting countries, including Chile. Given the relevance of the mining industry in the Chilean economy, it is vital to have methodologies that allow an estimation of the future price. Several methodologies have been used for these purposes; Being the most relevant econometric, financial and structural. None of them is capable of generating price trajectories like those historically observed in commodities. It is therefore necessary to look for new methodologies that account for these cycles. This thesis proposes to use an agent-based model to model the copper market. In this class of models individual economic agents are constructed, which have their own characteristics and autonomy to make decisions as the system advances. They are also characterized by being able to capture properties that emerge from the interaction of all elements of the system. The proposed model considers a system populated by deposits, mines, plaintiffs and a coordinating market, the price variable being an emergent property resulting from the interaction of the mentioned agents. The model also considers two types of decision, the decision of production and the decision of investment, which have consequences in the short and long term respectively. The price trajectories generated by the model indicate that the price cycles emerge as a consequence of the dynamics of the industry, mainly the delay between investment and the start of production. Another notable aspect is that price cycles emerge independently of the properties of mines and deposits; this fact is consistent with what is observed where the prices of different commodities tend to move together following a cyclical behaviour despite the differences in their extraction and concentration processes. Finally, there is a need to carry out research in this area, emphasizing aspects such as the mechanism by which prices are formed, developing variables that can adjust the model to different commodities and improving the method through which agents make decisions.
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Espinoza, Iglesias Daniel. "Transformaciones, conflictos y tensiones al interior de las regiones commodities, San Francisco de Chiu Chiu y la minería en los últimos 40 años." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2017. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/152594.
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Rothkopf, Maximilian. "Innovation in commoditized service industries : an empirical case study analysis in the passenger airline industry /." Berlin ; Münster : Lit, 2009. http://d-nb.info/99287145X/04.
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Id, Brik Rachid. "Modélisation du risque dans les marchés de commodités : théorie et applications." Paris 9, 2011. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2011PA090063.
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Gundersen, Lars Harald, and Carl Magnus Skutle. "A Mixed Complementarity Model of European Energy Markets : Using equilibrium modeling to analyze the optimal price and trade volumes of energy commodities in Europe." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-15073.
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Energy markets are complex networks of producers, exporters, traders and consumerscharacterized by different market structures in each sector. The infrastructuralnetwork connecting the markets plays an important role in determining thevolume of the trade flows and the location of the final consumption.The market players’ behavior in an energy market can be described using a gametheoretic approach where each player’s decision depends on the other market playersdecisions. Over the last decades these ideas have evolved and there have beenproduced some material where markets for a single commodity are modeled, usingideas from game theory to describe the players’ influence on each other’s decisions.However, little work has been done analyzing multi-commodity markets with thesame set of tools. Based on existing literature that is written on single-commoditymodeling, we have applied equilibrium programming with complementarity structureto describe the markets for electricity and natural gas in Northern Europethrough a strategic market model. The complexity level is potentially high, so wedecided to limit ourselves to a deterministic and myopic model without investmentpossibilities.The problem is formulated through a strategic MCP model where each marketparticipant solves an optimization problem connected through the market clearingconditions. Besides showing that the model is an MCP we implemented the modelin GAMS and solved it for the gas and electricity market in Northern Europe.Our results indicates that a Cournot model gives an adequate description of theelectricity and gas market in Northern Europe, and that considerable changes inproduction, consumption, traded volumes and prices in one market can lead toprice, quantity and welfare effects in markets far away from the initial cause. Wecan also register close links between the markets for electricity and natural gas,suggesting that agents’ behavior in one commodity market might affect the othercommodity market and vice versa.
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Caron, Christophe. "Contributions de l'Economie industrielle à la stratégie d'entreprise : Le cas des industries de commodité." Phd thesis, Ecole Polytechnique X, 2004. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00001198.
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L'analyse des situations d'interactions stratégiques, telle qu'elle s'est développée ces trente dernières années en économie industrielle sur la base de modèles théoriques mobilisant la théorie des jeux, peut-elle être utilisée dans les firmes pour l'aide à l'analyse stratégique ? L'objectif de cette thèse est d'explorer cette question dans le secteur spécifique des industries de biens "de commodité". Le chapitre 1 est un essai traitant de l'impact de l'incertitude de la demande sur des stratégies de préemption . Le chapitre 2 s'attache à la prise en compte des contraintes de capacité de production dans l'équilibre de Cournot-Nash. Le chapitre 3 propose un équilibre de négociation fondé sur des menaces de guerre de prix en demande inélastique. Le chapitre 4 présente un jeu expérimental proposant des limitations aux stratégies d'accommodation.
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Quintella, Vitor da Mata. "DOIS ENSAIOS SOBRE FINANÇAS CORPORATIVAS E GESTÃO DE RISCOS DE MERCADO." Escola Politécnica, 2017. http://repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/24918.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
A presente dissertação é uma coleção de dois ensaios sobre finanças corporativas e a gestão de riscos de mercado. Ambos os ensaios utilizam técnicas originárias de mercados financeiros aplicadas a um cenário particular de indústrias de commodities petroquímicos brasileiras que atuam com importação e exportação. Assim este trabalho é dotado de contribuições teóricas marginais, aprofundando-se na aplicação empírica de um ferramental adequado para uma situação específica que leva à identificação de resultados e conclusões próprias que poderiam passar despercebidos numa analise generalista. Os modelos são baseados em uma empresa real cujo nome e os dados são omitidos por motivos de sigilo. As métricas Earnings at Risk (EaR) e Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR) foram aplicadas, assim como uma variação do CFaR – proposta nessa dissertação – denominada Cash Balance at Risk (CBaR). O primeiro ensaio tem como objetivo identificar, mensurar e otimizar o risco financeiro e seus efeitos nos resultados de projetos com inovação tecnológica. Identificou-se que as métricas EaR, CFaR e CBaR auxiliam a avaliação de projetos quando acompanhadas dos procedimentos padrões de avaliação e, que, o uso de novas tecnologias, em certas condições, pode gerar um hedge natural para a empresa. Verificou-se que variações temporais entre gastos e recebimentos agravam a exposição financeira a oscilações de câmbio e de preços de commodities. Identificou-se, como boa prática, considerar em conjunto com a análise de projetos não apenas o financiamento e o hedging, mas também, os efeitos do mesmo sobre a estrutura financeira da empresa como um todo. O segundo ensaio tem como objetivo desenvolver uma fronteira eficiente risco-retorno para a gestão de riscos através do uso de derivativos. Foi possível fornecer um portfólio de decisões ótimas que superaram a posição de não utilização de derivativos no aumento de resultados e na redução do risco – tanto nas projeções realizadas quanto na aplicação de um backtesting com dados históricos. A razão da tomada de decisões que formaram a fronteira foi investigada, identificando – inclusive – a possibilidade de arbitragem quando se está na posição do exportador líquido. A inclusão à Fronteira Eficiente da análise do risco de caixa disponível se mostrou como uma contribuição à gestão de risco financeiro e à questão do conflito de agencia. Os resultados dessa aplicação se mostraram pouco sensíveis às mudanças históricas de tendências do mercado.
The present dissertation is a collection in two essays on corporate finance and market risk management. Both essays use techniques originated in financial market applied to a particular scenario of an import export Brazilian industry that uses and products intermediary petrochemicals. So that this work offers marginal theoretical contributions, with a focus of proposing applied empirical a framework for decision making that considers the singularities of this scenario. As benefits of such approach, it is possible to reach findings that wouldn’t be archivable by a generalist approach. Both essays use a financial model based on a real company whose name and data are omitted for reasons of secrecy. The metrics Earnings at Risk (EaR) and Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR) were applied, as well as a variation of the CFaR - proposed in this dissertation - called Cash Balance at Risk (CBaR). The first essay aims to identify, measure and optimize financial risk and its effects on the results of projects with technological innovation. It was found that the EaR, CFaR, and CBaR metrics help to evaluate projects when they are accompanied by standard evaluation procedures and that innovative technologies, in certain conditions, may act as a “natural hedge”. The findings also show that the time delay between revenues and expenses leads to financial risk exposure to changes in prices and foreign exchange rates. It was identified, as a good practice, to consider not only the financing and the hedging of a Project, but also, how it affects financial exposition of the company as a unity. The second essay aims at applying the concept of risk-return Efficient Frontier through the use of derivatives. It was possible to provide a portfolio of optimal decisions that overcome a position averse to derivative use. Better expectations were obtained with increased Expected earnings and with risk-reduction. The superiority was verified by an application of a backtesting with historical data. The reasons that made the optimizer take the decisions that formed the efficient frontier was investigated, and it was identified the possibility of arbitration when a company is in the position of the net exporter. The inclusion of cash balance risk analysis on the Efficient Frontier was shown to be a valuable contribution to financial risk management and to the agency problem. The results had little sensitivity to the historical changes of market trends.
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Madignier, Antoine. "Déterminants du choix des partenaires commerciaux dans les échanges de blé et de produits dérivés du blé des pays du Maghreb." Thesis, Montpellier 1, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011MON10043/document.
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La hausse de la volatilité des cours des matières premières agricoles de ces dernières années couplée à une réorganisation des filières débutées dans les années 1990, posent la question de l'approvisionnement des pays du Maghreb en blés et produits dérivés du blé. Ce travail se propose, dans ce contexte, de comprendre les modalités d'importations des blés et leur influence sur le choix du partenaire commercial. Nous nous appuyons, pour cela, sur un cadre théorique où les acteurs perçoivent les biens qu'ils importent, transforment ou commercialisent comme une collection de caractéristiques répondant à cinq logiques (le prix, la qualité, les services associés, les relations avec le fournisseur et le risque de non disponibilité) et sélectionnent leur variété préférée en fonction de ces caractéristiques. L'organisation des filières détermine l'acteur qui pourra imposer ses préférences au niveau des marchés internationaux. Une enquête au niveau des filières montre une préférence de l'ensemble des acteurs pour les caractéristiques ayant traits à la qualité et au prix sur les trois autres logiques, avec une plus grande sensibilité des acteurs privés pour la qualité, les acteurs publics étant plus focalisés sur les seuls prix. Enfin, une analyse des importations à l'aide d'équations de gravités confirme, d'une part la, prédominance des variables associées à la qualité et aux prix sur les autres variables pour expliquer le choix du partenaire commercial. D'autre part, le modèle de gravité montre que plus la part des importations effectuée par les entreprises privées est importante, plus les variables associées à la qualité sont influentes dans le choix du fournisseurLast years' rise of commodity price volatility and commodity chain reorganization which began in the 1990's questioned the issue of supply in wheat and wheat products for Maghreb countries. This work will try to understand the different wheat and wheat product import mode and their influence on trade partner choice. We settle our analyze on a theoretical framework in which actors perceive the goods they import, process or sell as a collection of characteristics corresponding to five logics (price, quality, related services, relations with the supplier and the risk of unavailability) and select their favorite variety in terms of these characteristics. Filière organization selects which actors are able to impose their preferences in international markets. A survey among actors shows a preference for the characteristics relating to quality and price on the three other logics, with a greater sensitivity of private actors for quality, public players are more focused solely on price. Finally, an analysis of imports using gravity equations confirms, on the one hand, predominance of variables associated with quality and prices on other variables to explain the choice of trading partner. On the other hand, it shows that the larger the share of imports carried by private companies on a filière, the more the variables associated with quality are influential in the choice of supplier
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Brémond, Vincent. "Prix du pétrole, tendance et cycles." Thesis, Paris 10, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA100099.
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Les relations entre variables macroéconomiques et prix du pétrole suscitent depuis de nombreuses années un fort intérêt de la part des économistes. Ces interactions dépendent non seulement des variables retenues, mais aussi de l’horizon temporel considéré. L’objet de cette thèse est ainsi d’étudier les relations entre le prix du pétrole et diverses variables macroéconomiques et financières en considérant des horizons temporels différents et en mobilisant diverses méthodologies économétriques complémentaires. Après avoir effectué un rappel historique sur l’industrie pétrolière depuis 1860, nous étudions les relations entre le prix du pétrole et le comportement des pays membres de l’Organisation des Pays Exportateurs de Pétrole en recourant aux techniques de séries temporelles et des données de panel. Par la suite, l’estimation de modèles VAR à paramètres temporels variables nous permet d’étudier l’impact du taux de change du dollar américain sur le prix du Brent. Enfin, nous analysons les mouvements joints entre prix des matières premières et prix du pétrole par le recours à l’économétrie des données de panel non stationnairesThe relationships between macroeconomic variables and oil prices have deserved a great interest in the economic literature. Those interactions depend on both the retained variables and the time horizon considered. The aim of the PhD is to study the relationships between oil price and various macroeconomic and financial variables by considering different time horizons as well as various econometric procedures. After reminding the oil industry evolution since 1860, we study the relationships between oil price and the production behavior of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, using both time series and panel data tools. Then, an analysis with time-varying parameters VAR models is implemented, regarding the impact of the USD exchange rate on the Brent price. Lastly, we study the co-movements between oil and commodity prices, using non stationary panel data methodology
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Rente, Telmo Fernando Martins da Silva. "Análise da relação entre preços de energia e de commodities agrícolas e industriais." Master's thesis, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/87181.
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Rente, Telmo Fernando Martins da Silva. "Análise da relação entre preços de energia e de commodities agrícolas e industriais." Dissertação, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/87181.
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