Academic literature on the topic 'Individual Conditional Expectation'

AbstractUsing risk-reducing properties of conditional expectations with respect to convex order, Denuit and Dhaene [Denuit, M. and Dhaene, J. (2012). Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51, 265–270] proposed the conditional mean risk sharing rule to allocate the total risk among participants to an insurance pool. This paper relates the conditional mean risk sharing rule to the size-biased transform when pooled risks are independent. A representation formula is first derived for the conditional expectation of an individual risk given the aggregate loss. This formula is then exploited to obtain explicit expressions for the contributions to the pool when losses are modeled by compound Poisson sums, compound Negative Binomial sums, and compound Binomial sums, to which Panjer recursion applies. Simple formulas are obtained when claim severities are homogeneous. A couple of applications are considered: first, to a peer-to-peer insurance scheme where participants share the first layer of their respective risks while the higher layer is ceded to a (re)insurer; second, to survivor credits to be shared among surviving participants in tontine schemes.

Dams are complex systems that involve both the structure itself and its foundation. Rheological phenomena, expansive reactions, or alterations in the geotechnical parameters of the foundation, among others, result in non-reversible and cumulative modifications in the dam response, leading to trends in the monitoring data series. The accurate identification and definition of these trends to study their evolution are key aspects of dam safety. This manuscript proposes a methodology to identify trends in dam behavioural data series by identifying the influence of the time variable on the predictions provided by the ML models. Initially, ICE curves and SHAP values are employed to extract temporal dependence, and the ICE curves are found to be more precise and efficient in terms of computational cost. The temporal dependencies found are adjusted using a GWO algorithm to different function characteristics of irreversible processes in dams. The function that provides the best fit is selected as the most plausible. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the proposed methodology is capable of obtaining estimates of the most common trends that affect movements in concrete dams with greater precision than the statistical models most commonly used to predict the behaviour of these types of variables. These results are promising for its general application to other types of dam monitoring data series, given the versatility demonstrated for the unsupervised identification of temporal dependencies.

Linear latent structure analysis is a new approach for investigation of population heterogeneity using high-dimensional categorical data. In this approach, the population is represented by a distribution of latent vectors, which play the role of heterogeneity variables, and individual characteristics are represented by the expectation of this vector conditional on individual response patterns. Results of the computer experiments demonstrating a good quality of reconstruction of model parameters are described. The heterogeneity distribution estimated from 1999 National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) is discussed. A predictive power of the heterogeneity scores on mortality is analysed using vital statistics data linked to NLTCS.

The proportion of alleles identical by descent (IBD) determines the genetic covariance between relatives, and thus is crucial in estimating genetic variances of quantitative trait loci (QTL). However, IBD proportions at QTL are unobservable and must be inferred from marker information. The conventional method of QTL variance analysis maximizes the likelihood function by replacing the missing IBDs by their conditional expectations (the expectation method), while in fact the full likelihood function should take into account the conditional distribution of IBDs (the distribution method). The distribution method for families of more than two sibs has not been obvious because there are n(n – 1)/2 IBD variables in a family of size n, forming an n × n symmetrical matrix. In this paper, I use four binary variables, where each indicates the event that an allele from one of the four grandparents has passed to the individual. The IBD proportion between any two sibs is then expressed as a function of the indicators. Subsequently, the joint distribution of the IBD matrix is derived from the distribution of the indicator variables. Given the joint distribution of the unknown IBDs, a method to compute the full likelihood function is developed for families of arbitrary sizes.

Bivariate data-driven methods have been widely used in landslide susceptibility analysis. However, the names, principles, and correlations of bivariate methods are still confused. In this paper, the names, principles, and correlations of bivariate methods are first clarified based on a comprehensive and in-depth survey. A total of eleven prevalent bivariate methods are identified, nominated, and elaborated in a general framework, constituting a well-structured bivariate method family. We show that all prevalent bivariate methods depend on empirical conditional probabilities of landslide occurrence to calculate landslide susceptibilities, either exclusively or inclusively. It is clarified that those eight “conditional-probability-based” bivariate methods, which exclusively depend on empirical conditional probabilities, are particularly strongly correlated in principle, and therefore are expected to have a very close or even the same performance. It is also suggested that conditional-probability-based bivariate methods apply to a “classification-free” modification, in which factor classifications are avoided and the result is dominated by a single parameter, “bin width”. Then, a general optimization framework for conditional-probability-based bivariate methods, based on the classification-free modification and obtaining optimum results by optimizing the dominant parameter bin width, is proposed. The open software Automatic Landslide Susceptibility Analysis (ALSA) is updated to implement the eight conditional-probability-based bivariate methods and the general optimization framework. Finally, a case study is presented, which confirms the theoretical expectation that different conditional-probability-based bivariate methods have a very close or even the same performance, and shows that optimal bivariate methods perform better than conventional bivariate methods regarding both the prediction rate and the ability to reveal the quasi-continuous varying pattern of sensibilities to landslides for individual predisposing factors. The principles and open software presented in this study provide both theoretical and practical foundations for applications and explorations of bivariate methods in landslide susceptibility analysis.

Abstract Consider a population whose size changes stepwise by its members reproducing or dying (disappearing), but is otherwise quite general. Denote the initial (non-random) size by $$Z_0$$ Z 0 and the size of the nth change by $$C_n$$ C n , $$n= 1, 2, \ldots $$ n = 1 , 2 , … . Population sizes hence develop successively as $$Z_1=Z_0+C_1,\ Z_2=Z_1+C_2$$ Z 1 = Z 0 + C 1 , Z 2 = Z 1 + C 2 and so on, indefinitely or until there are no further size changes, due to extinction. Extinction is thus assumed final, so that $$Z_n=0$$ Z n = 0 implies that $$Z_{n+1}=0$$ Z n + 1 = 0 , without there being any other finite absorbing class of population sizes. We make no assumptions about the time durations between the successive changes. In the real world, or more specific models, those may be of varying length, depending upon individual life span distributions and their interdependencies, the age-distribution at hand and intervening circumstances. We could consider toy models of Galton–Watson type generation counting or of the birth-and-death type, with one individual acting per change, until extinction, or the most general multitype CMJ branching processes with, say, population size dependence of reproduction. Changes may have quite varying distributions. The basic assumption is that there is a carrying capacity, i.e. a non-negative number K such that the conditional expectation of the change, given the complete past history, is non-positive whenever the population exceeds the carrying capacity. Further, to avoid unnecessary technicalities, we assume that the change $$C_n$$ C n equals -1 (one individual dying) with a conditional (given the past) probability uniformly bounded away from 0. It is a simple and not very restrictive way to avoid parity phenomena, it is related to irreducibility in Markov settings. The straightforward, but in contents and implications far-reaching, consequence is that all such populations must die out. Mathematically, it follows by a supermartingale convergence property and positive probability of reaching the absorbing extinction state.

OBJECTIVES: Occupational injuries are known to be the main adverse outcome of occupational accidents. The purpose of the current study was to identify control strategies to reduce the severity of occupational injuries in the mining industry using Bayesian network (BN) analysis.METHODS: The BN structure was created using a focus group technique. Data on 425 mining accidents was collected, and the required information was extracted. The expectation-maximization algorithm was used to estimate the conditional probability tables. Belief updating was used to determine which factors had the greatest effect on severity of accidents.RESULTS: Based on sensitivity analyses of the BN, training, type of accident, and activity type of workers were the most important factors influencing the severity of accidents. Of individual factors, workers’ experience had the strongest influence on the severity of accidents.CONCLUSIONS: Among the examined factors, safety training was the most important factor influencing the severity of accidents. Organizations may be able to reduce the severity of occupational injuries by holding safety training courses prepared based on the activity type of workers.

This manuscript outlines a viable approach for training and evaluating machine learning systems for high-stakes, human-centered, or regulated applications using common Python programming tools. The accuracy and intrinsic interpretability of two types of constrained models, monotonic gradient boosting machines and explainable neural networks, a deep learning architecture well-suited for structured data, are assessed on simulated data and publicly available mortgage data. For maximum transparency and the potential generation of personalized adverse action notices, the constrained models are analyzed using post-hoc explanation techniques including plots of partial dependence and individual conditional expectation and with global and local Shapley feature importance. The constrained model predictions are also tested for disparate impact and other types of discrimination using measures with long-standing legal precedents, adverse impact ratio, marginal effect, and standardized mean difference, along with straightforward group fairness measures. By combining interpretable models, post-hoc explanations, and discrimination testing with accessible software tools, this text aims to provide a template workflow for machine learning applications that require high accuracy and interpretability and that mitigate risks of discrimination.

In order to estimate the unknown size of the population that is difficult or hidden to enumerate, the capture-recapture method is widely used for this purpose. We propose the one-inflated, zero-truncated geometric (OIZTG) model to deal with three important characteristics of some capture–recapture data: zero-truncation, one-inflation, and observed heterogeneity. The OIZTG model is generated by two distinct processes, one from a zero-truncated geometric (ZTG) process, and the other one-count producing process. To explain heterogeneity at an individual level, the OIZTG model provides a simple way to link the covariate information. The new estimator was proposed based on the OIZTG distributions through the modified Horvitz-Thomson approach, and the parameters of the OIZTG distributions are estimated by using a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). With regard to making inferences about the unknown size of the population, confidence interval estimations are proposed where variance estimate of population size estimator is achieved by using conditional expectation technique. All of these are assessed through simulation studies. The real data sets are provided for understanding the methodologies.

Female labour force participation has increased constantly over the last thirty years in Australia. A number of theories and an established literature predict that such an increase in the performance of paid work by women will lead to a redistribution of unpaid work between men and women in the household. There is little evidence, however, of a corresponding redistribution of unpaid work within Australian households, raising a number of questions about the process through which paid and unpaid work is distributed between partners. A review of the literature considers economic and sociological approaches to the domestic division of labour and how the distribution of paid and unpaid work between partners has been understood, measured and explained. This review identifies two related problems in the existing explanatory frameworks; one theoretical, and one empirical. First, existing explanatory frameworks make assumptions about either unilateral, exchange or bargaining decision making processes between partners, rather than empirically establishing the process through which decisions are made. These untested assumptions about the decision making process lead to an empirical problem, whereby the interpretation of empirical data relies on establishing associations between the individual characteristics of household members and the subsequent distribution of time spent on different tasks. By examining the decision making process that is subsumed within the existing explanatory frameworks, this thesis addresses a gap in the literature. Results in the established literature rely on the strength of assumptions about the decision making process in these explanatory frameworks and neglect alternative possibilities. More recent studies provide alternative explanations about the allocation of time within households which consider the independent behaviour of autonomous individuals as well as their perceptions and preferences about paid and unpaid work. These insights guide the construction of this study, with additional consideration given to how individuals perceive, anticipate and make decisions about work and family, taking account of both the established and alternative explanations for the allocation of time to paid and unpaid work. Specifically, the research question asks: what is the decision making process when allocating time to paid and unpaid work in the household? Two component questions sit within this, firstly: what type of decision is it – autonomous, unilateral, exchange or bargaining? And secondly: what is the basis for the decision – income, preference or gender? In order to counter the empirical problems identified in both recent studies and the established literature, and pursue the research questions, a qualitative strategy of data collection and analysis is implemented. Based on replication logic, a target sample of sixty respondents is constructed, containing ten men and ten women from each of three purposefully identified life situations; undergraduate, graduate and parent. This sample allows for the comparative analysis of results between and across samples of men and women drawn from different stages of work and family formation. Subsequently the interview schedule is detailed, along with the composition of the final sample, made up of male and female undergraduates, male and female graduates, mothers and fathers who are also graduates. The results of the interviews are presented in three separate chapters in accordance with the different life situations of the interviewees, namely male and female undergraduates, male and female graduates, and male and female parents who are also graduates. Following the three results chapters is a detailed analysis and discussion of the key findings in the final chapters. Findings from the research indicate that the decision making process is based on gender and operates independent of partners in an autonomous manner. Indeed, gender is seen to be pervasive in the decision making process, with gendered expectations evident in the responses of all men and women in the sample, and taking effect prior to household formation, before decisions about work and family need to be made. The findings demonstrate that, independent of one another, men and women have implicit assumptions about how they will manage demands between work and family. Men in the study are shown to be expecting to fulfil and fulfilling the role of breadwinner in the household, with a continuous attachment to the workforce, whereas women in the study are shown to be expecting to accommodate and accommodating additional care demands in the household, impacting on their attachment to the workforce. These implicit assumptions by men and women conspire to limit the range of options perceived in the household when decisions about work and family need to be made and prevent households from redistributing paid and unpaid work responsibilities between partners in accordance with their economic needs and preferences. These findings also highlight institutional constraints that prevent the redistribution of paid and unpaid work between partners, reinforcing the delineation in the division of labour between household members. In the process this study makes two key contributions to the existing literature, firstly with a method for the investigation of the hitherto untested decision making process, and secondly with findings that demonstrate an alternative decision making process to that which is assumed in the existing explanatory frameworks, which takes account of the gendered expectations of men and women independently.

Doctor of Philosophy
Female labour force participation has increased constantly over the last thirty years in Australia. A number of theories and an established literature predict that such an increase in the performance of paid work by women will lead to a redistribution of unpaid work between men and women in the household. There is little evidence, however, of a corresponding redistribution of unpaid work within Australian households, raising a number of questions about the process through which paid and unpaid work is distributed between partners. A review of the literature considers economic and sociological approaches to the domestic division of labour and how the distribution of paid and unpaid work between partners has been understood, measured and explained. This review identifies two related problems in the existing explanatory frameworks; one theoretical, and one empirical. First, existing explanatory frameworks make assumptions about either unilateral, exchange or bargaining decision making processes between partners, rather than empirically establishing the process through which decisions are made. These untested assumptions about the decision making process lead to an empirical problem, whereby the interpretation of empirical data relies on establishing associations between the individual characteristics of household members and the subsequent distribution of time spent on different tasks. By examining the decision making process that is subsumed within the existing explanatory frameworks, this thesis addresses a gap in the literature. Results in the established literature rely on the strength of assumptions about the decision making process in these explanatory frameworks and neglect alternative possibilities. More recent studies provide alternative explanations about the allocation of time within households which consider the independent behaviour of autonomous individuals as well as their perceptions and preferences about paid and unpaid work. These insights guide the construction of this study, with additional consideration given to how individuals perceive, anticipate and make decisions about work and family, taking account of both the established and alternative explanations for the allocation of time to paid and unpaid work. Specifically, the research question asks: what is the decision making process when allocating time to paid and unpaid work in the household? Two component questions sit within this, firstly: what type of decision is it – autonomous, unilateral, exchange or bargaining? And secondly: what is the basis for the decision – income, preference or gender? In order to counter the empirical problems identified in both recent studies and the established literature, and pursue the research questions, a qualitative strategy of data collection and analysis is implemented. Based on replication logic, a target sample of sixty respondents is constructed, containing ten men and ten women from each of three purposefully identified life situations; undergraduate, graduate and parent. This sample allows for the comparative analysis of results between and across samples of men and women drawn from different stages of work and family formation. Subsequently the interview schedule is detailed, along with the composition of the final sample, made up of male and female undergraduates, male and female graduates, mothers and fathers who are also graduates. The results of the interviews are presented in three separate chapters in accordance with the different life situations of the interviewees, namely male and female undergraduates, male and female graduates, and male and female parents who are also graduates. Following the three results chapters is a detailed analysis and discussion of the key findings in the final chapters. Findings from the research indicate that the decision making process is based on gender and operates independent of partners in an autonomous manner. Indeed, gender is seen to be pervasive in the decision making process, with gendered expectations evident in the responses of all men and women in the sample, and taking effect prior to household formation, before decisions about work and family need to be made. The findings demonstrate that, independent of one another, men and women have implicit assumptions about how they will manage demands between work and family. Men in the study are shown to be expecting to fulfil and fulfilling the role of breadwinner in the household, with a continuous attachment to the workforce, whereas women in the study are shown to be expecting to accommodate and accommodating additional care demands in the household, impacting on their attachment to the workforce. These implicit assumptions by men and women conspire to limit the range of options perceived in the household when decisions about work and family need to be made and prevent households from redistributing paid and unpaid work responsibilities between partners in accordance with their economic needs and preferences. These findings also highlight institutional constraints that prevent the redistribution of paid and unpaid work between partners, reinforcing the delineation in the division of labour between household members. In the process this study makes two key contributions to the existing literature, firstly with a method for the investigation of the hitherto untested decision making process, and secondly with findings that demonstrate an alternative decision making process to that which is assumed in the existing explanatory frameworks, which takes account of the gendered expectations of men and women independently.

La conception de processus robustes revêt une importance capitale dans divers secteurs, tels que le génie chimique et le génie des procédés. La nature de la robustesse consiste à s'assurer qu'un processus peut constamment produire les résultats souhaités pour les décideurs, même lorsqu'ils sont confrontés à une variabilité et à une incertitude intrinsèques. Un processus conçu de manière robuste améliore non seulement la qualité et la fiabilité des produits, mais réduit également de manière significative le risque de défaillances coûteuses, de temps d'arrêt et de rappels de produits. Il améliore l'efficacité et la durabilité en minimisant les déviations et les défaillances du processus. Il existe différentes méthodes pour améliorer la robustesse du système, telles que la conception d'expériences, l'optimisation robuste et la méthodologie de la surface de réponse. Parmi les méthodes de conception robuste, l'analyse de sensibilité pourrait être appliquée comme technique de soutien pour mieux comprendre comment les modifications des paramètres d'entrée affectent les performances et la robustesse. En raison du développement rapide en science de l’ingénieure, les modèles mécanistiques ne captant pas certaines parties des systèmes complexe, peuvent ne pas être l'option la plus appropriée pour d'analyse de sensibilité. Ceci nous amène à envisager l'application de modèles d'apprentissage automatique et la combiner avec l’analyse de sensibilité. Par ailleurs, la question de l'interprétabilité des modèles d'apprentissage automatique a gagné en importance, il est de plus en plus nécessaire de comprendre comment ces modèles parviennent à leurs prédictions ou à leurs décisions et comment les différents paramètres sont liés. Étant donné que leurs performances dépassent constamment celles des modèles mécanistiques, fournir des explications, des justifications et des informations sur les prédictions des modèles de ML permettent non seulement de renforcer leur fiabilité et leur équité, mais aussi de donner aux ingénieurs les moyens de prendre des décisions en connaissance de cause, d'identifier les biais, de détecter les erreurs et d'améliorer les performances globales et la fiabilité des systèmes. Diverses méthodes sont disponibles pour traiter les différents aspects de l'interprétabilité, ces dernières reposent sur des approches spécifiques à un modèle et sur des méthodes agnostiques aux modèles.Dans cette thèse, notre objectif est d'améliorer l'interprétabilité de diverses méthodes de ML tout en maintenant un équilibre entre la précision dans la prédiction et l'interprétabilité afin de garantir aux décideurs que les modèles peuvent être considérés comme robustes. Simultanément, nous voulons démontrer que les décideurs peuvent faire confiance aux prédictions fournies par les modèles ML. Les outils d’interprétabilité ont été testés pour différents scénarios d'application, y compris les modèles basés sur des équations, les modèles hybrides et les modèles basés sur des données. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons appliqué à diverses applications plusieurs méthodes agnostiques aux modèles, telles que partial dependence plots, individual conditional expectations, accumulated local effects, etc
Robust process design holds paramount importance in various industries, such as process and chemical engineering. The nature of robustness lies in ensuring that a process can consistently deliver desired outcomes for decision-makers and/or stakeholders, even when faced with intrinsic variability and uncertainty. A robustly designed process not only enhances product quality and reliability but also significantly reduces the risk of costly failures, downtime, and product recalls. It enhances efficiency and sustainability by minimizing process deviations and failures. There are different methods to approach the robustness of a complex system, such as the design of experiments, robust optimization, and response surface methodology. Among the robust design methods, sensitivity analysis could be applied as a supportive technique to gain insights into how changes in input parameters affect performance and robustness. Due to the rapid development and advancement of engineering science, the use of physical models for sensitivity analysis presents several challenges, such as unsatisfied assumptions and computation time. These problems lead us to consider applying machine learning (ML) models to complex processes. Although, the issue of interpretability in ML has gained increasing importance, there is a growing need to understand how these models arrive at their predictions or decisions and how different parameters are related. As their performance consistently surpasses that of other models, such as knowledge-based models, the provision of explanations, justifications, and insights into the workings of ML models not only enhances their trustworthiness and fairness but also empowers stakeholders to make informed decisions, identify biases, detect errors, and improve the overall performance and reliability of the process. Various methods are available to address interpretability, including model-specific and model-agnostic methods. In this thesis, our objective is to enhance the interpretability of various ML methods while maintaining a balance between accuracy and interpretability to ensure decision-makers or stakeholders that our model or process could be considered robust. Simultaneously, we aim to demonstrate that users can trust ML model predictions guaranteed by model-agnostic techniques, which work across various scenarios, including equation-based, hybrid, and data-driven models. To achieve this goal, we applied several model-agnostic methods, such as partial dependence plots, individual conditional expectations, accumulated local effects, etc., to diverse applications

The service industry accounts for an ever-growing share of the global economy, and service aspects have become increasingly important for all goods. Since service expectations play a key role in the quality perceptions that consumers ultimately develop, it is important for service marketers to understand the nature of consumer expectations and the influences upon these expectations. Current research indicates that national culture affects service expectations, especially the information sources that consumers use and their opinion seeking propensity. However, cross-cultural expectation formation is a particularly under-researched area and researchers using national culture as an explanatory variable tend not to develop rigorous conceptual models clearly explicating how culture is meant to affect the consumer behaviour being examined. This research examines cross-cultural expectation formation and thus contributes to increasing academic understanding and improving marketers’ ability to manage the expectation formation process across cultures. Specifically, this research sought to empirically test the influence of individual-level cultural dimensions on the relative importance of the key antecedents of consumers’ expectations of service quality. A conceptual framework linking cultural factors to the formation of expectations was developed and empirically tested in a multicultural setting to explore similarities and differences between customers with significantly different cultural values. An experimental design was used in which five sets of 1x2 manipulations were developed for the manipulated independent variables (past experience, advertising, price, firm image, and word-of-mouth). Existing scales from the literature were used to measure predicted service quality expectations (the dependent variables) and individual-level cultural values (the measured independent variables). Data were collected in English via the Web from university students of different nationalities across three countries (UK, Malaysia, and China) and the final sample size was 486 respondents. To test the hypotheses and propositions five separate 2x2 between-subjects MANCOVAs were performed on the dependent measure in aggregate as well as on the three decomposed elements of predicted service quality expectations identified in this research: Tangibles, Customer Care, and Empathy. The findings indicate that service quality expectations are significantly influenced by the five antecedents of expectations investigated and that word-of-mouth communications and past personal experience explained a greater proportion of the variance in service quality expectations than explicit and implicit service promises. Adding to previous studies, findings show that advertising was significant only as an antecedent of Tangible expectations, word-of-mouth communications was particularly important in developing Empathy expectations, and price was most important for developing Customer Care expectations. The findings also supported the proposed conceptualisation, indicating that individual-level cultural factors moderate the relationship between the antecedents of expectations and predicted expectations. Long-term Orientation and Power Distance moderated the relationship between the antecedents and predicted expectations the most. Long-term Orientation and Masculinity have tended to be overlooked in the research stream but this research indicates that all five individual-level variables moderate the relationship between the antecedents of expectation and predicted expectations and also that these dimensions may explain consumer behaviour best when used in tandem. This information is also important for managers, who need to recognise that customers’ usage of various information sources in forming service quality expectations is partially culturally determined. Finally, the examination of cultural values at the individual level allows academics to develop a ‘cultural service personality’ at this level and allows practitioners, with the use of their Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems, to collect this information from consumers and use it to inform the type of information directed at consumers’ with different cultural service profiles.

Master's thesis deals with newly emerging forms of public preschool education. The research objective was to describe and evaluate the Center for preschool children, to characterize and compare it with the system of education in nursery schools. Evaluate their contribution to society and educational effects. Monitor vision and expectations of parents. To identify the necessary information, I used methods of observation of the educational conditions, observation of the work educator, interview with a educator, interview with the head of the Center and questionnaire for parents.

Chapter 12, “Commentary: Personalization,” discusses the process of personalization, based on the portraits presented in Chapters 8–11. Personalization is not just a matter of individual variation; it is a form of active engagement through which individuals endow imaginaries with personal meanings and refract the imaginary through their own experiences. The portraits illustrate how the social imaginary of childrearing and self-esteem entered into dialogue with the complex realities of people’s lives. Parents’ ability to implement their childrearing goals was constrained and enabled by their past experiences and by socioeconomic conditions. The individual children were developing different strategies of self-evaluation, different expectations about how affirming the world would be, and different self-defining interests, and their self-making varied, depending on the situation. Some children received diagnoses of low self-esteem as early as preschool.

This chapter outlines the individual grievances arising from political, economic, social, and religious conditions under the government of Mohamed Morsi that became the foundations of opposition to his rule. It focuses on democracy in Egypt, the 2012 presidential elections, and the expectations and promises put forth by Morsi. The chapter also covers popular perceptions of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party, grievances surrounding electricity and gas, security and sexual harassment, Morsi’s speeches and representation of Egypt on the international stage, and Morsi’s political appointments. The chapter relies on interview data and fieldwork conducted in Egypt during the year of Morsi’s presidency.

This chapter offers a sober analysis of the history and prospects of genetic counseling in psychiatry. The present intersection of genetics and psychiatry is complex and limited in scope. The argument is made that recent genomic discoveries are unlikely to revolutionize genetic counseling because the complex nature of psychiatric conditions are not reducible to models of prediction. Susceptibility testing for psychiatric disorders is not a stable platform for clinical psychiatry because tests based on “common variation” are clinically unhelpful. Nevertheless, there are expectations that genetic counseling for psychiatry will be an area of growth and potential. The rest of the chapter focuses on the practical work of individuals and experts as they manage their moral or professional obligations to communicate and understand genetic risk in psychiatry.

This essay provides an overview of the publishing context at the turn of the eighteenth century out of which the novel would emerge, including the development and early dominance of the London book, before going on to describe the conditions for the spread of printing and bookselling nationally from 1695 onwards. As well as considering book production, the essay examines readers’ experiences in the period, looking at the testimony of individual, historical readers, and some specific genres of writing—such as diaries, autobiographies, and collections of letters—often considered important for the emergence of the novel form. The essay then turns to establish the ‘conceptual horizons’ of readers’ expectations with regard to fiction—horizons which authors could work within or seek to challenge and push further by innovating new forms of literary expression, the novel amongst them.

The decision to admit patients to intensive care or discharge them, is a daily task for intensivists, a life-changing event for patients and families, and a major strategic issue for health care systems worldwide. Decisions must often be made rapidly, in conditions of uncertainty, involving substituted judgements about relative risks and benefits, framed by sociocultural factors that are not well characterized. The outcomes are strongly influenced by available resources, staffing, and skills throughout the patient pathway. The decision to admit should be based on the severity of illness, chronic health and physiological reserve, and therapeutic susceptibility, informed by the patient’s wishes. Discharge decisions are equally complex and involve balancing the needs of individual patients against those of society. Scoring systems and guidelines can aid decision making. The process involves collaboration between intensivist, referring team, patient, and family. The provision of futile care is usually driven by family expectations and lack of agreement among the treating team. Discussions involve value judgements. Effective admission and discharge processes will minimize avoidable morbidity, mortality, and readmissions, and maximize family and patient satisfaction, and cost-efficacy. However, reaching the most effective level of practice involves balances and compromises. Experienced clinical judgement remains a key element in defining suitability of individual patients for ICU admission and discharge.

In most contemporary analyses of responsibility, attention has been directed exclusively to the specific conditions that must be met by the presumed responsible agent in order to be able to account for her actions. More attention needs to be paid, however, to the dynamics between the presumed responsible party and those who judge her responsible. Specifically, the standard approach pays little attention to the status of the party positioned to hold another responsible relative to that of the party from whom an account is expected. This oversight is problematic, because, depending on the practices associated with holding a person responsible, individuals may be sanctioned in ways that are quite harsh. This chapter expands an analysis of moral responsibility as a form of accountability to attend to these dynamics of power. While ascriptions of responsibility remain expectations that an account be forthcoming from the actor, this is too myopic a picture.

The present study examines the acts of ancient church councils as the objects of textual practices, in their editorial shaping and in their material conditions. The book analyses the purposes and expectations governing and inscribed into the use and creation of these acts. It traces the processes of their production, starting from the recording of spoken interventions during a meeting, to the preparation of minutes of individual sessions, to their collection into larger units, their storage, and the earliest attempts at their dissemination. It contends that the preparation of ‘paperwork’ is central to the work of a council, and much of its effectiveness resides in the relevant textual and bureaucratic processes. As council leaders and administrators paid careful attention to the creation of a ‘proper’ record suited to their requirements, they also scrutinized documents and records of previous occasions with equal attention and inspected document features meant to assure and project validity and authority. From the evidence of such examinations the study further reconstructs the textual and physical characteristics of ancient conciliar documents and the criteria of their assessment. Papyrological evidence and contemporary legal regulations are used to contextualize these efforts. The book seeks to demonstrate that scholarly attention to the production processes, character, and material conditions of council acts is essential to their understanding, and to any historical and theological research into the councils of the ancient church.

Nations have powerful reasons to get their military alliances right. When security pacts go well, they underpin regional and global order; when they fail, they spread wars across continents as states are dragged into conflict. We would, therefore, expect states to carefully tailor their military partnerships to specific conditions. This expectation, Raymond C. Kuo argues, is wrong. Following the Leader argues that most countries ignore their individual security interests in military pacts, instead converging on a single, dominant alliance strategy. The book introduces a new social theory of strategic diffusion and emulation, using case studies and advanced statistical analysis of alliances from 1815 to 2003. In the wake of each major war that shatters the international system, a new hegemon creates a core military partnership to target its greatest enemy. Secondary and peripheral countries rush to emulate this alliance, illustrating their credibility and prestige by mimicking the dominant form. Be it the NATO model that seems so commonsense today, or the realpolitik that reigned in Europe of the late nineteenth century, a lone alliance strategy has defined broad swaths of diplomatic history. It is not states' own security interests driving this phenomenon, Kuo shows, but their jockeying for status in a world periodically remade by great powers.

The study is funded by Doha International Family Institute (DIFI), a member of Qatar Foundation, and is a collaboration between the Muslim Resource Centre for Social Support and Integration of London, Ontario; University of Guelph, Ontario; and University of Calgary, Alberta, all located in Canada; and the Doha International Family Institute, Qatar. The study received research ethics approval from the University of Guelph and the University of Calgary. This study aims to assess the impact of pre- and post-migration on marital relationships and family dynamics for Arab refugee families resettled in Canada. The study also examines the role of professional service providers in supporting these Arab refugee families. The unique experiences of Arab families displaced from their countries due to war and political conflict, and the various hardships experienced during their stay in transit countries, impact their family relations and interactions within the nuclear family context and their interconnectedness with their extended families. Furthermore, these families encounter various challenges within their resettlement process that interrupt their integration. Understanding the impact of traumatic experiences within the pre-migration journey as well as the impact of post-migration stressors on recently settled Arab refugee families in Canada provides insight into the shift in spousal and family relationships. Refugee research studies that focus on the impact of pre-migration trauma and displacement, the migration journey, and post-migration settlement on family relationships are scarce. Since the majority of global refugees in recent years come from Arab regions, mainly Syria, as a result of armed conflicts, this study is focused on the unique experiences of Arab refugee families fleeing conflict zones. The Canadian role in recently resettling a large influx of Arab refugees and assisting them to successfully integrate has not been without challenges. Traumatic pre-migration experiences as a result of being subjected to and/or witnessing violence, separation from and loss of family members, and loss of property and social status coupled with experiences of hardships in transit countries have a profound impact on families and their integration. Refugees are subjected to individual and collective traumatic experiences associated with cultural or ethnic disconnection, mental health struggles, and discrimination and racism. These experiences have been shown to impact family interactions. Arab refugee families have different definitions of “family” and “home” from Eurocentric conceptualizations which are grounded in individualistic worldviews. The discrepancy between collectivism and individualism is mainly recognized by collectivist newcomers as challenges in the areas of gender norms, expectations regarding parenting and the physical discipline of children, and diverse aspects of the family’s daily life. For this study, we interviewed 30 adults, all Arab refugees (14 Syrian and 16 Iraqi – 17 males, 13 females) residing in London, Ontario, Canada for a period of time ranging from six months to seven years. The study participants were married couples with and without children. During the semi-structured interviews, the participants were asked to reflect on their family life during pre-migration – in the country of origin before and during the war and in the transit country – and post-migration in Canada. The inter - views were conducted in Arabic, audio-recorded, and transcribed. We also conducted one focus group with seven service providers from diverse sectors in London, Ontario who work with Arab refugee families. The study used the underlying principles of constructivist grounded theory methodology to guide interviewing and a thematic analysis was performed. MAXQDA software was used to facilitate coding and the identification of key themes within the transcribed interviews. We also conducted a thematic analysis of the focus group transcription. The thematic analysis of the individual interviews identified four key themes: • Gender role changes influence spousal relationships; • Traumatic experiences bring suffering and resilience to family well-being; • Levels of marital conflict are higher following post-migration settlement; • Post-migration experiences challenge family values. The outcome of the thematic analysis of the service provider focus group identified three key themes: • The complex needs of newly arrived Arab refugee families; • Gaps in the services available to Arab refugee families; • Key aspects of training for cultural competencies. The key themes from the individual interviews demonstrate: (i) the dramatic sociocul - tural changes associated with migration that particularly emphasize different gender norms; (ii) the impact of trauma and the refugee experience itself on family relation - ships and personal well-being; (iii) the unique and complex aspects of the family journey; and (iv) how valued aspects of cultural and religious values and traditions are linked in complex ways for these Arab refugee families. These outcomes are consist - ent with previous studies. The study finds that women were strongly involved in supporting their spouses in every aspect of family life and tried to maintain their spouses’ tolerance towards stressors. The struggles of husbands to fulfill their roles as the providers and protec - tors throughout the migratory journey were evident. Some parents experienced role shifts that they understood to be due to the unstable conditions in which they were living but these changes were considered to be temporary. Despite the diversity of refugee family experiences, they shared some commonalities in how they experi - enced changes that were frightening for families, as well as some that enhanced safety and stability. These latter changes related to safety were welcomed by these fami - lies. Some of these families reported that they sought professional help, while others dealt with changes by becoming more distant in their marital relationship. The risk of violence increased as the result of trauma, integration stressors, and escalation in marital issues. These outcomes illustrate the importance of taking into consideration the complexity of the integration process in light of post-trauma and post-migration changes and the timespan each family needs to adjust and integrate. Moreover, these families expressed hope for a better future for their children and stated that they were willing to accept change for the sake of their children as well. At the same time, these parents voiced the significance of preserving their cultural and religious values and beliefs. The service providers identified gaps in service provision to refugee families in some key areas. These included the unpreparedness of professionals and insufficiency of the resources available for newcomer families from all levels of government. This was particularly relevant in the context of meeting the needs of the large influx of Syrian refugees who were resettled in Canada within the period of November 2015 to January 2017. Furthermore, language skills and addressing trauma needs were found to require more than one year to address. The service providers identified that a longer time span of government assistance for these families was necessary. In terms of training, the service providers pinpointed the value of learning more about culturally appropriate interventions and receiving professional development to enhance their work with refugee families. In light of these findings, we recommend an increased use of culturally integrative interventions and programs to provide both formal and informal support for families within their communities. Furthermore, future research that examines the impact of culturally-based training, cultural brokers, and various culturally integrative practices will contribute to understanding best practices. These findings with regard to refugee family relationships and experiences are exploratory in their nature and support future research that extends understanding in the area of spousal relationships, inter - generational stressors during adolescence, and parenting/gender role changes.

Abstract As the number of older adults increases in the world’s population, and as many of these older people retain their natural teeth, oral health promotion becomes more important for maintaining their quality of life. In this chapter we will examine why oral health is an important concern for the older population and their care providers as well as for the health professionals who must treat them when oral conditions become unmanageable at home, and the methods and benefits of health promotion to maintain the older person’s well-being. Throughout this chapter we will use a systems perspective to discuss the interaction of multiple individual and social systems in creating the need for and influencing the success of health promotion efforts. Age-related changes in the older person’s organ systems interact with the individual’s expectations about health and disease in old age; these changes in turn interact with society’s willingness and ability to provide oral health services for older adults. These interactions influence health beliefs, behaviours and subsequently the oral health status of older adults.

This chapter focuses on interpreting quality research, one of the many topics studied by Franz Pöchhacker. First, two of his models will serve as tools for analysing the conditioning factors which have been addressed in this field. It is shown how individual research and broader project and research team contributions have yielded new insights by introducing innovative research methods in expectation and evaluation studies. More recently, quality research has incorporated interdisciplinary perspectives to explore the factors that condition evaluators’ perceptions. After discussing some key studies in this regard, the chapter describes a research project which applies implicit theories to reveal the impact of the receiver’s perspective on his or her evaluation of a given interpretation.

AbstractThis chapter presents a theoretical model that links working conditions with men’s and women’s retirement preferences via their physical and psychological health and their subjective age and longevity expectations. The model is based on the assumption that ‘subjective age’ is a central variable in retirement decisions that mediates the relationship between working conditions and individuals’ preferred retirement timing. The theoretical model is tested using survey data from a representative sample of older workers in Austria. Based on findings from multivariate regression analyses, we conclude that improved working conditions – directly and via improved health and feelings of youthfulness – can help delaying the timing of labour market exit. Improvements in working conditions would help to extend working life, because workers who enjoy ‘good working conditions’ tend to feel healthier and younger and would be willing to work until a higher age. Job attributes that help workers to maintain a sense of youthfulness and encourage them to stay part of the active work force until a higher age include high intrinsic job quality (e.g. learning and development opportunities at work, task variety) and employee-led time flexibility. Older workers in ‘bad jobs’ that involve physical work strain and time pressure tend to feel older and to prefer an earlier retirement.

AbstractThis chapter provides insights into the intractable ethico-political nature of ‘access’ in post-colonial, post-conflict higher education (HE), through the reflections of Black academics and women academics who have lived experience of the minority-majority transitions of academic communities in post-apartheid South Africa. To address the lack of ‘diversity’ of under-represented demographics within historically white institutions, those institutions who provided access to these hand-picked academics did so requiring that they undergo rigorous professional development and socialisation programmes for the purposes of assuring their quality. Critical discourse analyses were undertaken of the qualitative responses of these academics made in response to a questionnaire on this subject, which were then confirmed and deepened within small group discussions. In this chapter we discuss how their responses revealed: (1) the mis-educational reception of structural access for troubling homogeneous institutional cultures; (2) the risks encountered in the politics of belonging of an individual’s access for success; and (3) the problematic weight of transformative expectations when conditions mitigate against empowering agents access to challenge. Situated within an historical narrative of academic development and the national drives in that country for an HE sector ‘transformed’ from its historical legacies of injustice and inequality, the chapter highlights the implications of these three constructions of access for disrupting the machinations of the hidden macro- and meso-curricula of power and whiteness.

AbstractIn the DSM V, the condition known as “Gender Identity Disorder” becomes “Gender Dysphoria” in order to avoid the stigma of being labeled as carriers of psychopathology. Gender Dysphoria (GD) refers to mental discomfort deriving by incongruence between the expressed gender and the assigned one. The term Transgender refers to identities or gender expressions that differ from social expectations typically based on the birth assigned sex. Not all people living “Gender Variance” express psychological or physic discomfort. The personal gender identity develops influenced by emotionally significant relationships and by socialeducational environment, based on predisposing biological characteristics. Most of clinical and psycho-social studies agree on multifactorial nature of this process, focusing on the combined action of biological, psychological, social and cultural factors. The first symptoms of gender dysphoria may appear from first years of life and then they may persist in puberty and adulthood. The causes of Gender Dysphoria are still unclear.Both psychosocial and biological factors have been called into question to explain the onset. The Gender Dysphoria Treatment aims to reduce, or to remove, suffering of person with GD and it is based on teamwork of psychologists, psychiatrists, endocrinologists and surgeons. The cure is, firstly, psychological and is provided by mental health experts. Hormone therapy can be prescribed to all people with persistent and well documented Gender Dysphoria if there are no medical contraindications; lastly, sex reassignment surgery. The formation and definition of transgender and transsexual identity obviously represents a specific complexity, to which is added an environmental, cultural and consequently individual and conditioning stigmatization.

AbstractThis chapter discusses three historically rooted ideals of decision-making practices in universities (collegiality, democracy and managerialism) from the perspective of non-affirmative theory of education (NAT). Following a discussion on the historical layers of Finnish universities, we analyse how different practices of higher education decision-making are connected to ideas of what a university is and does. Utilising NAT, we reflect on higher education leadership both in terms of its internal character and its object and historical context. The chapter has three starting points. First, we note that contributions to conceptualisations of educational leadership, governance and management need to provide an idea of the object of this leadership—what is being led. Second, we argue that higher education leadership and governance theory needs to say something meaningful about the relation between society and university. Third, we discuss how decision-making is managing the gap between external expectations and conditions and institutional operational culture. We discuss the ways in which both collegiality and democracy recognise each other as free, capable of and responsible for participating in decision-making, either directly or indirectly. From the perspective of NAT, recognition without affirmation creates a space for collaborative reflection and the repositioning of the activities of individuals and organisations. However, the shift from the democratic mode of decision-making to managerialism implies a break with this tradition. Decision-making in Finnish universities in the period after the university law (2009) is characterised by a shift of power from democratically elected bodies into the hands of deans and the rector. Utilising NAT, we discuss how this change influences academics.

Abstract Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has a substantial impact on individuals and communities globally, including lengthy, expensive and burdensome therapy with high rates of treatment failure and death. Strategies to prevent disease are well established for those who acquire latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) after exposure to drug susceptible TB (DS-TB). However, there has been limited research or programmatic experience regarding the prevention of MDR-TB. Accordingly, while global recommendations strongly emphasize the need to deliver LTBI therapy after TB exposure, most programs do not do so where MDR LTBI is identified. The paucity of prospective randomized trial evidence for the effectiveness of MDR LTBI therapy, and concerns regarding its adverse effects, have been used to justify a reluctance to scale up programmatic interventions to prevent MDR-TB, or to participate in research evaluating such strategies. However, such a response fails to adequately balance potential risks of therapy with the substantial harms associated with inaction. Furthermore, the cost of inaction falls disproportionately on the most vulnerable members of society, including children. Delays in implementing proven preventive strategies may also mask hidden programmatic concerns, particularly regarding the financial cost and other burdens of treating drug resistant infection. Reticence to engage with preventative therapy for MDR-TB, even in the absence of high-level evidence, may run counter to the best interests of individuals who have been exposed to MDR-TB. This chapter will explore ethical tensions raised by expanding access to preventative therapies for MDR-TB, and consider how ethically optimal responses to this adverse condition may be evaluated. An ethical perspective on evidentiary burden will be addressed, emphasizing how MDR LTBI research may both offer, and be shaped by, paradigmatic insights into human research ethics more generally. Emerging research and illustrations from the authors programmatic engagement in Vietnam are offered as case examples, because social and community expectations and norms may challenge, or support, implementation of therapy for drug-resistant infection. Such circumstances prompt consideration of the broader questions of social impact, such as the potential for widespread preventive therapy to accelerate the development of antimicrobial resistance.

Centralized Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) presents itself as an ideal framework for aggregation companies (e.g., Uber, Lyft, Deliveroo) that have to take a sequential set of centralized decisions on assigning individual agents (typically resources like taxis, food delivery personnel) to customer requests online in the presence of demand uncertainty. However, centralized learning is especially challenging in such very large scale environments, with thousands of agents/resources and hundreds of thousands of requests coming in each day. In this paper, we provide a novel value decomposition mechanism that is able to tackle the scale and provide high quality (matching) decisions at each time step. We show that our value decomposition approach, Conditional Expectation based Value Decomposition (CEVD) is more sustainable (requires 9.9% fewer vehicles to serve equal number of requests) and more efficient (serves 9.76% more requests, while traveling 13.32% lesser distance) than the current best approach over two different city scale (New York and Chicago) benchmarks for ride pooling using taxis.

A patient’s perception of their journey through rehabilitation is based on their personal aspirations and expectations as filtered through the value and belief systems within which they live. From these internal constructs, the uniqueness of an individual’s lived experience emerges and explains how two individuals with the same health condition or health state may respond to their situation very differently. This chapter covers contextual factors within the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health model, personality factors, attitudes, skills, and behaviour patterns in the context of how an individual will react to rehabilitation.

If domain knowledge can be integrated as an appropriate constraint, it is highly possible that the generalization performance of a neural network model can be improved. We propose Sensitivity Direction Learning (SDL) for learning about the neural network model with user-specified relationships (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) between each input feature and the output of the model by imposing soft shape constraints which represent domain knowledge. To impose soft shape constraints, SDL uses a novel penalty function, Sensitivity Direction Error (SDE) function, which returns the squared error between coefficients of the approximation curve for each Individual Conditional Expectation plot and coefficient constraints which represent domain knowledge. The effectiveness of our concept was verified by simple experiments. Similar to those such as L2 regularization and dropout, SDL and SDE can be used without changing neural network architecture. We believe our algorithm can be a strong candidate for neural network users who want to incorporate domain knowledge.

Abstract Level 3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (L3 PSA) is required in UK Generic Design Assessment (GDA) to demonstrate that a new nuclear power plant is suitable to be built in UK. L3 PSA is used to assess the individual and societal risk and compare the results against the offsite Radiation Protection Targets (RPTs) for fault and accident conditions. There is little relevant good practice for L3 PSAs that have recently been performed worldwide and there is lack of mature standard to implement L3 PSA. In this study, a pilot L3 PSA is performed for UK HPR1000 to reflect the UK context and relevant good practices. It introduces the methodology and the processes to be followed to perform conditional consequences calculations for the faults and accident scenarios. All radiation sources are considered and analyzed. The radiological risks to a potential UK site are analyzed and compared against RPTs. A widely used code - PC COSYMA, is selected as a primary tool for the accident consequence calculations. The strengths and limitations of the code are identified based on the project situation, and either qualitative arguments or supplementary analysis is subsequently proposed to overcome the limitations. The final L3 PSA results has supported the demonstration that the offsite radiological risks for UK HPR1000 have been achieved as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) and meet the UK regulatory expectation.

In environmental terms, culture represents the climatic and indoor conditions people have experienced during a significant part of their life. Consequently, people exposed to different cultures might have different expectations of the lighting environment. Knowing the lighting expectations due to cultural experiences have numerous advantages; it could help meet the occupants’ needs and preferences and provide occupant satisfaction, reducing unnecessary energy consumption in the built environment. This paper aims to summarise a systematic review to create a conceptual framework of cultural background in the lit environment, which could help understand the impact of cultural background on daylight perception and expectation. This review highlighted that cultural background in lighting environment should be evaluated considering (1) the ethnicity and/or physiological characteristics of the individual eyes, (2) the area (luminance environment) where people used to live (3) the luminance environment they were recently exposed to and (4) the socio-cultural background of individuals. Future research should further test these components together and separately to investigate which component or combination is more influential on daylight perception.

This paper explores the role of the linguistic dimension within the process of the social integration of migrant populations in Italy. With increasing ethnic diversity as a result of recent decades of immigration in all Western European countries, the integration of ethnic minorities has become a major concern of national governments, policymakers, academics, and the individuals directly affected themselves. Indeed, the Council of Europe has been a pioneer in the field of language teaching and the project on the Linguistic Integration of Adult Migrants (LIAM) is part of its continuing work in this domain. Linguistic integration is a complex process and can occur in different forms and levels being highly contextual and connected to migrants’ and host communities’ expectations. Starting from an overview of the main Italian policies for linguistic integration, this study highlights the linguistic resources that migrants need in order to successfully develop a sense of belonging and engagement in the host community. This study aims to understand what shapes, affects or enables the linguistic integration of migrants in medium-sized towns and rural areas. It is vital to define what types of content should be taught on a priority basis in order to develop efficient language programmes to fulfil migrants’ needs and expectations.

Abstract Risk assessment of drilling tool failure prior to field deployment plays a critical role in well construction. Drilling tool failure can be very expensive, due to rig downtime, missed reservoir targets and pre and post job costs. In recent years, data-driven techniques, such as machine learning (ML) methodologies, have gained popularity in drilling operations, including predicting drilling tool failure. This is due to the abundance of operational drilling data, the advancement of ML algorithm capabilities, and computational infrastructure. However, ML models built upon pure data knowledge have several pitfalls: lack of generalization and explainability, data imbalance, and difficulty in optimization. This paper proposes a data-driven technique assisted by expert knowledge during the model building process, comprised of descriptive and predictive analytic frameworks. The descriptive analytic framework considers multiple drilling parameters, such as temperature, vibrations, bit rotary speed, stick slip, torque, weight, drilling fluid properties, circulating hours, and drilling hours. Additionally, data labeling covers information on the failure, run parameters, and active state of the tool. This step evaluates all plausible contributing factors to the failure, which experts then assess, feeding back into the analysis of the set of stress factors to consider. In the following predictive analytics framework, an ensemble of predictive models estimates the parameter importance supporting the feedback from the experts. Partial dependence analysis and individual conditional expectation evaluates interaction between parameters and estimates the contribution of each parameter to the failure event. This technique helps with model explainability, which adds confidence in the results. Boosting technique generalizes the model, and a developed random under-sampling routine handles the imbalance of the data label (failure and survivor). Finally, the Bayesian optimization technique handles the difficulty found during the optimization process. An application demonstrates the novelty of the method proposed in this paper. The application is to evaluate the deployment failure risk of a hydraulic motor in a Measurement-While-Drilling directional drilling unit, and stator-alternator, in the communication-power module of a drill string. The paper also demonstrates an affirmation of the insights from data-driven technique with the laboratory results during failure investigation. Moreover, it is shown that infusing expert knowledge in the analysis framework can result in an improved model performance for failure risk assessment, which in turn contributes significantly to reducing the failure rate. ML models built upon pure data knowledge have several pitfalls, including lack of generalization and explainability, data imbalance, and difficulty in optimization. The method described here tackles these pitfalls by incorporating subject-matter-expert (SME) knowledge into analytics, machine learning context. This results in a powerful tool, illustrated here in evaluating the failure risk of a component of a downhole tool.

There is a necessary for self-regulation of a personality during change of leading sort of activity and adaptation to new one. The article considers means which is able to contribute for increase of social adaptation at University. The interconnection between socio-psychological adaptation of students at University and parameters of empathy has been discovered by empirical way. This connection has been examined on analytical, structural and functional levels by using both methods of qualitative and statistical analysis, based on system approach to the research. It was used such methods of interrogation as `Assessment of the level of empathic abilities` by V. V. Boyko; `The methodology of diagnosis of socio-psychological adaptation` by C. Rogers and R. Diamond; `Adaptation of students to University` by M. S. Yurkina. The selection including 233 people was divided into levels by degree of manifestation of expectation for internal control for consideration of features. It includes low level (external control), medium level (optimum) and high one (internal control). It was determined that internal locus of control has an impact on increase of adaptation to University life. It was figured out that there is a manifestation of self-control in individuals who get predominance of conative parameters of empathy. Increase of adaptation is able to be achieved by using combination of the system elements such as an augmentation of facilitate empathic impacts, decrease of inhibitory ones and transformation of neutral effects of empathy on socio-psychological adaptation. Attention was also paid to the research of the structural complex both in general and in its individual manifestations. The structural analysis let to reveal basic and system-forming features of examined connection. Thus, conditions for the average manifestation of expectation of internal control have been found and it was determined that this phenomenon takes on base significance because its middle values promote for integration of system ingredients and increase of system system ability to adaptation process. In such a way it has been proved that harmonization of personality structure is possible being achieved due the increase of self-control and correction of empathic means as a mechanism of responsiveness.

The paper investigates the possibilities and scope of the impact of marketing information systems on future tourist trends. Special emphasis is placed on the current conditions in which the world economy and tourism find themselves, which are significantly determined by the spread of the COVID 19 pandemic and the digitalization of business. In such conditions, the importance of marketing information systems for adequate management of relationship marketing in tourism is increasing. Namely, successful marketing in tourism means offering greater value than the competition, as well as customer satisfaction. Satisfaction is achieved when the obtained performance of the tourist service meets or exceeds expectations. Customer expectations are formed on the basis of pre-purchase information, and commercial success is achieved when performance exceeds expectations. Marketing information systems are often used in practice in order to constantly improve the customer base. One-on-one marketing, or tailoring travel services to individual customers, depends heavily on market and timely customer information. Research has shown that marketing information systems provide an organized and timely flow of market information that optimizes marketing decision-making in tourism.

Quality of life refers to the individual perception of each person regarding their objectives, expectations and achievements, according to their stage of life and contexts of material, physical, emotional and social conditions. Assistive Technology devices can improve the individual’s performance in many domains related to daily activities, which are linked to independence and social participation. The user’s satisfaction is an important factor for the successful use of assistive devices. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between the quality of life and the users’ satisfaction with their lower limb prostheses. Eleven individuals aged between 20 and 54 years participated in the study. All participants were interviewed by telephone responding to the Quebec User Evaluation of Satisfaction with Assistive Technology (QUEST 2.0) and the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BREF), both in its Brazilian version. The highest frequency of positive responses (“very satisfied” or “quite satisfied”) were found in the professional service (90%), efficacy (81.8%) and weight (81.8%), while durability (27.3%), repairs and technical assistance (27.3%) and follow-up service (27.3%) were the factors with highest frequencies of dissatisfaction (responses of “not satisfied at all” or “not very satisfied”) in the QUEST 2.0. Participants indicated comfort (27.3%), durability (21.2%) and safety (21.2%) as the most important aspects for satisfaction with their prostheses. When it comes to the quality of life in the WHOQOL-BREF, the mean of the participants' scores was 74.2%, with similar scores for the domains of physical health (75.6±12.8), psychological (80.7±9.4), social relationships (74.2±15.1) and environment (66.5±16.2). This study contributed to the comprehension of the main factors of the assistive device and service that influence the satisfaction of prostheses’ users, and the correlation with their quality of life. Improvements are still needed in some aspects in lower limb prostheses in order to better meet the users’ needs.

Abstract During the exploration design phase of recent pre-salt development in Santos Basin, it was identified great potential for the production of some wells, generating great expectation by how it would perform in the production phase, above the average of 30,000 bpd. The Subsea and Topside design were developed based on this expectation and therefore, diameters were limited considering the premises of 45,000 bpd production from the well to the FPSO. As a result of first oil production the expectation not only became a reality but also was largely supersede, confirming a very high production potential of up to 65,000 bpd per well, some of which are at the world top list of highest production wells for deep and ultra-deep waters. Despite the outstanding high potential of the well, full production was then, not able to be achieved due to limitations considered in the design's premises of 45,000 bpd per well, what overcome the already great expectation. In this scenario, there was intense effort to make the real production potential of the wells viable. To fit the design to the new dynamic flow conditions, a multidisciplinary technical assessment team was mobilized involving several disciplines such as: Subsea Equipment, Wells, Risers, Process, Piping, Instrumentation and Automation, in addition to Operational Safety, a non-negotiable value. After technical discussions between those different disciplines, alternative proposals were raised that could make possible a safe operation under this new challenging condition. The defined actions were implemented and currently the wells already operate on high levels of production. On the FPSO with those high production wells, due to this individual increase in the production, whose potentials exceed by 45% the design capacity, generating a significant increase in the profitability of the asset, contributing to revenues anticipation in the company's cash flow. This article presents the piping and instrumentation study to deal with a high flow velocity issue. The methodology adopted to overcome the challenges in vibration and erosion considered an unusual design approach, leading to some field test to check the effectiveness of the solution. This alternative approach allowed this increment in production rate per well piping branch.

We propose a regression-based approach to estimate how individuals’ expectations influence their responses to a counterfactual change. We provide conditions under which average partial effects based on regression estimates recover structural effects. We propose a practical three-step estimation method that relies on subjective beliefs data. We illustrate our approach in a model of consumption and saving, focusing on the impact of an income tax that not only changes current income but also affects beliefs about future income. Applying our approach to Italian survey data, we find that individuals’ beliefs matter for evaluating the impact of tax policies on consumption decisions.

Based on a framework of memory and recall that accounts for social networks, we provide conditions under which social networks can amplify expectations. We provide evidence for several predictions of the model using a novel dataset on inflation expectations and social network connections: Inflation expectations in the social network are statistically significantly, positively associated with individual inflation expectations; the relationship is stronger for groups that share common demographic characteristics, such as gender, income, or political affiliation. An instrumental variable approach further establishes causality of these results while also showing that salient information transmits strongly through the network. Our estimates imply that the influence of the social network overall amplifies but does not destabilize inflation expectations.

As observers to the intersectional fields of culture, education, and social change, Creative Generation witnessed the chosen organizational structure of “networks” come into vogue – particularly as smaller, community-based organizations have begun to participate in larger-scale, collaborative initiatives. In almost all examples, the individuals and organizations involved do their collaborative work through a “network,” using any number of connections and patterns. This qualitative inquiry sought to understand how applying Network Theory to organizational structures can cultivate the conditions to support young creatives. Through literature and conducting interviews with leaders of diverse networks in the arts and cultural education fields, this project provides an overview of Network Theory and examines examples of various models. This report proposes the following set of provocations for the field to interrogate the use of Network Theory in their projects’ implementation: strong connections between the network and its participants, shared power among network leadership and participants, clear expectations about funding, and specific role for young creatives in decision-making.

National Park Service (NPS) managers face growing challenges resulting from the effects of climate change. In particular, as temperatures rise in coming decades, natural resource management in the western United States must cope with expectations for elevated severity and frequency of droughts. These challenges are particularly pronounced for vegetation managers in dryland environments. Developing adaptive strategies requires specific information about the expected magnitude of change in climate and drought conditions as well as insights into how those changes will affect important vegetation resources. This report describes research focused on Southeast Utah Group (SEUG) park units designed to provide information about exposure and sensitivity of perennial grasses to aridification. Analyses at larger regional scales are also reported for context and comparison. This report is a product of an ongoing climate adaptation collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NPS, and Northern Arizona University. The study it summarizes contributes quantitative ingredients for vulnerability assessments that are needed in the Climate-Smart Conservation framework. As such, the results informed a series of climate adaptation workshops conducted between 2018 and 2021 for Colorado Plateau scientists and managers. This is a giant step forward in science-informed management. The information in this report can be used to craft management strategies that can be implemented at the right place and time for individual species of concern.

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3

This edition analyzes how financial conditions weakened and bond yields rose in most emerging East Asian markets between 1 September and 10 November amid expectations that the United States Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The report covers the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea. It explains how overall risks to regional financial conditions remain balanced, with downside risks emanating from high interest rates potentially offset by expected moderation in inflation in 2024. The report also discusses recent developments in local currency bond markets and includes summaries for each of the region’s individual markets.

Inflation has decreased since April, and it is projected to continue to reduce significantly throughout 2024 as it converges toward 3%. In September 2023, the headline annual inflation rate was 10.99% and completed six consecutive months of declines. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, has experienced three consecutive months of reductions and currently stands at 9.5%. The reduction in inflation has been slower than the projected by the Central Bank and market analysts, primarily due to: More persistent price increases in services and regulated baskets, which are affected by indexation mechanisms of past inflation and minimum wage. Increases in some prices of perishable food items. Going forward, monetary policy actions will continue contributing to inflation reduction in 2024 and its convergence toward the 3% target during 2025. Projections for 2024 consider the impact of the El Niño with moderate effects on food and energy prices, the implementation of healthy taxes, and necessary adjustments in fuel prices. Economic activity and employment continue to grow, with a projected GDP growth of 1.2% for 2023. The economic slowdown this year allows economic activity and consumption and investment expenditures to align with the long-term productive capacity of the economy, contributing to inflation reduction. For the third quarter, available economic indicators suggest an annual GDP growth of 0.4%. Despite the low growth rate, economic activity would maintain the high levels achieved in the first half of the year. Employment continues to grow in most economic sectors, and the unemployment rate remains historically low. The economic slowdown has been milder than the projected by the Central Bank, resulting in an upward revision of the 2023 growth rate from 0.9% to 1.2%. For 2024, the economy is expected to maintain a slow growth pace (0.8%), contributing to the inflation convergence to the target. Private consumption will adjust, while investment levels will remain lower than before the pandemic. In 2025, the economy is expected to return to growth rates close to those sustainable in the long-term. These adjustments in the economy are reflected in a reduction of the current account deficit and less vulnerability to external conditions changes. The policy interest rate remains at 13.25%, currently appropriate level to consolidate inflation reduction toward the 3% target and to foster sustainable economic growth. In the September and October meetings of 2023, the Board of Directors, by majority, decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 13.25%. The current monetary policy stance is driven by persistent high inflation, forecasts and expectations of inflation exceeding the 3% target, and with levels of economic activity close to its productive capacity. The Bank will continue to monitor the economy and its key risks to make decisions that are in the best interest of the country. Some important risk factors to watch in the coming months include: El Niño phenomenon evolution, which may result in additional impacts on inflation. Wage adjustments that will be determined in the coming months. The persistence of higher price increases, particularly, in the services sub-basket. The behavior of global short and long-term interest rates that may affect the exchange rate. The economic slowdown. Reducing inflation brings multiple benefits to the economy: Reducing inflation toward the target supports the preservation of wage purchasing power. Low and stable inflation prevents regressive income and wealth redistributions. In particular, low-income individuals and the unemployed have fewer mechanisms to shield themselves from the eroding impact of inflation on their income and savings. When inflation is low, it becomes more predictable and facilitates the development and continuity of long-term financing markets (such as TES and mortgages), enabling the financing of government, corporate, and household investment projects. Additionally, when inflation is low, real interest rates are lower, making it more affordable to finance these projects. When inflation is low and stable, price movements of goods and services are more informative about the sectors in which it is most valuable to increase production. This leads to a better sectoral allocation of capital and labor and, therefore, to raising the total productivity of the economy.